Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BDI composite freight index and sub - vessel type freight indices continued to decline this week, but the week - on - week decline slowed. The decline of mainstream vessel types was within 10%. - The increase in the shipment volume of certain commodities supported the demand for Panamax and Handysize vessels, causing the BPI, BSI, and BHSI freight indices to rebound compared to the previous few days, and the week - on - week decline also slowed [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Index Review - **BDI Freight Index Analysis**: On August 5, compared with the previous week, the BDI composite freight index and its sub - vessel type freight indices continued to decline, but the decline slowed. The BDI composite freight index closed at 1921 points, a week - on - week decline of 8.91%; the BCI freight index closed at 3006 points, a week - on - week decline of 13.52%; the BPI freight index closed at 1625 points, a week - on - week decline of 6.66%; the BSI freight index closed at 1279 points, a week - on - week decline of 0.16%; the BHSI freight index closed at 676 points, a week - on - week decline of 0.15% [4]. - **FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index**: On August 5, the FDI index declined across the board, but the charter rates of most routes in the FDI Handysize vessel rental market increased. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1275.93 points, a month - on - month decline of 2.17%; the FDI rental index closed at 1538.5 points, a month - on - month decline of 2.61%. Among them, the Capesize vessel rental index closed at 1572.76 points, a month - on - month decline of 6.1%; the Panamax vessel rental index closed at 1529.08 points, a month - on - month decline of 0.3%; the Handymax vessel rental index closed at 1502.23 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%; the FDI freight index closed at 1120.63 points, a month - on - month decline [9]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipment Tracking - **Shipment Quantity and Vessel Usage on the Day**: On August 6, among major agricultural product shippers, Brazil used 23 vessels, Russia used 15 vessels, Argentina used 13 vessels, and Australia used 4 vessels. Among major industrial product shippers, Australia used 46 vessels, Guinea used 26 vessels, Indonesia used 41 vessels, Russia used 20 vessels, South Africa used 14 vessels, Brazil used 12 vessels, and the United States used 10 vessels [15]. - **Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis on the Day**: In terms of agricultural product shipments, 8 vessels were used for corn, 20 for wheat, 14 for soybeans, 2 for soybean meal, and 11 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 103 vessels were used for coal, 73 for iron ore, and 18 for other dry goods. In terms of vessel types, the largest number of vessels required for agricultural product shipments was 28 post - Panamax vessels, followed by 15 Supramax vessels, and finally 8 Handysize vessels. For industrial product shipments, the largest number was 80 Capesize vessels, followed by 71 post - Panamax vessels, and finally 52 Supramax vessels [16]. 3.3 Tracking of the Number of Ships at Major Ports - The latest data showed that the number of ships at ports in China, Indonesia, and South Africa increased month - on - month, but the growth rate slowed. From July 1 to August 5, "one port decreased, and four ports increased." The number of dry bulk ships at Chinese ports increased by 14 month - on - month; the number of ships at six Australian ports decreased by 18 month - on - month; the number of ships at six Indonesian ports increased by 1 month - on - month; the number of ships at five Brazilian ports increased by 4 month - on - month; and the number of ships at one South African port increased by 1 [17]. 3.4 Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On August 5, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $39 per ton. On August 6, the near - term shipment quotation for Brazilian soybeans was 3970.92 yuan per ton. - On August 4, the latest quotation for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $24,595 per day. On August 5, the latest quotation for the CIF price of iron ore was $119 per thousand tons. - On August 4, the latest quotation for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $12,185 per day. On August 5, the latest quotation for the CIF price of thermal coal was 537.72 yuan per ton. - On August 5, the Handysize vessel freight index was quoted at 677.4 points. On August 8, the quotation for 4 - meter medium - grade ACFR radiata pine was $116 per cubic meter [21].

南华贵金属日报: 降息预期回升 贵金属偏强 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月6日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场震荡回升，最终SHFE黄金2510主力合约782.5元/克，+0.26%；SHFE白银2510合约收 9075元/千克，+0.82%。近期美经济数据不佳以及政府对美联储施压等影响，美联储9月降息预期回升是价 格上涨主因。美国7月ISM非制造业PMI为50.1，低于预期51.5，和前值50.8。美国总统特朗普表示美联储主 席是政治性的，鲍威尔降息太晚；可能很快会宣布新的美联储主席。 【本周关注】 本周数据清淡。事件方面，周四03：10，2027年FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利发表讲话 ；22：00， 2027年FOMC票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克线上参加佛罗里达州首席财务官协会有关货币政策的炉边谈 话；周五22：20，2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆发表讲话。 周四19：00，英国央行公布利 率决议、会议纪要和货币政策报告 。 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线仍主要由多头掌握局面，伦敦金有望延续回升，支撑3340 ...

Report Basics - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Views - Copper prices were slightly stronger on Monday and Tuesday, mainly a correction of the previous decline. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper is basically stable, and it's hard to see LME copper price exceeding COMEX copper price in the short - term. However, there are still undercurrents in the spot market and inventory. The short - term oversold situation of COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets. Investors should be vigilant about the negative impact of weak copper demand [3] Detailed Summaries Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,580 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 22.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive**: Agreement on tariff policies between the US and other countries, decline of the US dollar index due to employment data, and obvious lower support [4] - **Likely Negative**: Fluctuations in tariff policies, reduction of global demand due to tariff policies, and extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [4][5] Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures**: The latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 78,580 yuan/ton with no daily change; Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 78,580 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan (0.32%); Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 78,560 yuan/ton with no daily change; LME copper 3M is 9,634.5 US dollars/ton, down 74 US dollars (- 0.76%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15, down 0.01 (- 0.12%) [4] - **Spot**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper is 78,615 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan (0.25%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 78,630 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan (0.36%); Guangdong Nanchu is 78,460 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan (0.37%); Yangtze Non - Ferrous is 78,790 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan (0.36%) [6] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 834.04 yuan/ton, up 53.61 yuan (6.87%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,486 yuan/ton, up 1.6 yuan (0.11%); the price advantage (tax - included) is - 651.96 yuan/ton, up 52.01 yuan (- 7.39%) [8] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Shanghai Futures Exchange**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 18,767 tons, down 1,581 tons (- 7.77%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons with no change [12] - **LME**: The total LME copper inventory is 153,850 tons, up 14,275 tons (10.23%); the registered warehouse receipts are 141,850 tons, up 14,350 tons (11.25%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 12,000 tons, down 75 tons (- 0.62%) [14] - **COMEX**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 262,190 tons, up 8,759 tons (3.46%); the registered warehouse receipts are 112,243 tons, up 2,790 tons (0%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 149,947 tons, up 1,010 tons (0.68%) [16] Copper Import and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is - 262.02 yuan/ton, down 113.2 yuan (76.07%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42 US dollars/ton with no change [17]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 6, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Core View - Tin prices showed a slight increase on Tuesday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues are not easily resolved, and there are uncertainties in Myanmar's resumption of production. If the situation is delayed, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand on tin prices has not been fully reflected [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Key Data Price Volatility - Latest closing price: 267,490 yuan/ton; price range forecast (monthly): 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton; current volatility: 14.36%; current volatility historical percentile: 26.1% [2] Futures Disk Data (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main Contract | yuan/ton | 267,490 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous One | yuan/ton | 267,490 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous Three | yuan/ton | 267,660 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,300 | 175 | 0.53% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.02 | 0.05 | 0.63% | [7] Spot Data (Weekly) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Tin Ingot | yuan/ton | 267,000 | 900 | 0.34% | | 1 Tin Premium | yuan/ton | 400 | - 300 | - 42.86% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 255,000 | 900 | 0.35% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 259,000 | 900 | 0.35% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 173,250 | 500 | 0.29% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 180,750 | 500 | 0.28% | | Lead - free Solder | yuan/ton | 273,250 | 1000 | 0.37% | [13] Inventory Data | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Tin: Total | ton | 7283 | - 10 | - 0.14% | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Tin: Guangdong | ton | 4848 | - 84 | - 1.7% | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Tin: Shanghai | ton | 1564 | 74 | 4.97% | | LME Tin Inventory: Total | ton | 1900 | - 50 | - 2.56% | [22] Other Data - Tin import profit and loss: - 14,076.93 yuan/ton, daily change 1669.38 yuan, daily change rate - 10.6% - 40% tin ore processing fee: 12,200 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% - 60% tin ore processing fee: 10,050 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% [23] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: Go short on the Shanghai Tin main futures contract with a 75% hedging ratio at around 275,000 yuan/ton; sell call options (SN2509C275000) with a 25% hedging ratio when volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase: Go long on the Shanghai Tin main futures contract with a 50% hedging ratio at around 230,000 yuan/ton; sell put options (SN2509P245000) with a 25% hedging ratio when volatility is appropriate [2] Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of China - US tariff policies; semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle; Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [8] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies; inflow of Myanmar tin ore into China; slowdown in the expansion of the semiconductor sector and a shift from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Domestically, the economy shows downward pressure as the manufacturing PMI declines. It enters a policy observation period, and incremental policies may be introduced if economic data continues to weaken. Overseas, it's an inflation observation period. Despite a hawkish speech from Powell, the Fed's core targets are employment and inflation. With poor non - farm data and high inflation in the US service sector, there may be fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, without new shock factors, it is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range, with a likely central anchor at 7.20 [4]. - The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend. The adjustment of US tariff policies may reduce risk appetite [6]. - For the bond market, there is a mild price repair. Although the stock market is strong, the bond market is at most suppressed, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. - For the shipping industry, the container shipping index is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [9]. - In the precious metals market, due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, gold and silver are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper may be volatile and weak; aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile; zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be volatile in the short - term; tin may rise slightly; and the recommended strategies vary for each metal [13][15][16][17][18][19]. - In the black metals market, steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space; iron ore is expected to be strong; coking coal and coke may have increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic; silicon iron and silicon manganese are not overly pessimistic despite the decline in sentiment [21][23][26][27]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is under supply pressure and has limited upward space; LPG is in a loose supply situation; PX - TA can be considered for expanding processing fees at low prices; MEG - bottle chips are expected to be range - bound; methanol's fundamentals are weak in the short - term; PP is driven up by coal prices; PE needs to wait for demand recovery; PVC's pricing returns to the industry, and short - selling is recommended; pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile; fuel oil is weak; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling; asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile; urea is expected to be weakly volatile; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline; and propylene's price in the Shandong market has a slight increase [31][33][35][37][39][42][45][47][48][50][51][53][54][56][58][59][60][61][66]. - In the agricultural products market, for live pigs, short - selling at high prices is recommended; for oilseeds, long - buying in the far - month contracts is recommended [67][69]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market information includes policies on financial support for new - type industrialization in China, the US service - sector PMI causing concerns about stagflation, Trump's statements on tariffs and the Fed, and the high proportion of seriously overdue consumer loans in the US [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day's RMB exchange - rate performance shows a decline in the on - shore RMB against the US dollar. Trump's tariff policies and the decline in the US non - manufacturing index are important factors. Without new shock factors, the short - term exchange rate is expected to be supported in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index continued to rise yesterday, and the small - cap stocks were strong. The A - share market is expected to show a structural and volatile trend due to policy support and the adjustment of US tariff policies [5][6]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury futures fluctuated upward, and the price is in a mild repair state. The bond market is at most suppressed by the strong stock market, and a band - trading strategy is recommended [7]. Shipping - The container shipping index futures opened low and fluctuated. The spot prices of major shipping companies have been continuously reduced, and the futures price is expected to be volatile and may decline in the medium - term [8][9]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The price of precious metals rose due to the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. They are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and are mainly controlled by bulls in the short - term [11]. - **Copper**: The copper price rebounded slightly, mainly to correct the previous decline. It may be volatile and weak in the short - term, and investors are advised to hold cash and wait [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be under pressure and volatile; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered when the price difference is large [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to rebound after reaching the bottom. The supply is gradually changing from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak in the traditional off - season [16][17]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to be volatile in the short - term. The fundamentals of nickel have no obvious changes, and the supply of nickel - iron is supported by the expected increase in steel - mill production in August. The stability of the stainless - steel price needs to be tested [18]. - **Tin**: Tin rose slightly, showing strong resilience. The supply problem has not been resolved, and the demand weakness has not fully affected the price. Inventory hedging can be considered at an appropriate time [19]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products' prices have limited upward and downward space. Although the export orders have weakened, the market pressure is temporarily relieved, and the coal - mine inspection and military - parade limit - production expectations provide support [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be strong. The short - term fundamentals are good, and the supply is neutral while the demand is expected to remain high. The price is expected to break through the 800 - yuan pressure level [22][23]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose strongly. The "anti - involution" policy may lead to increased price fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic. It is not recommended for non - spot - handling investors to participate in the 09 - contract delivery game [25][26]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: Although the sentiment has declined, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported by high steel - mill profits in the short - term, but the long - term demand is uncertain [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell overnight, and the market is under supply pressure. The seasonal demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited [30][31]. - **LPG**: LPG is in a loose supply situation. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand has little change. The price is expected to be under pressure [32][33]. - **PX - PTA**: The PX - TA price has fallen. The current TA processing fee is at a historical low, and there are many expected TA maintenance plans. It is recommended to expand the processing fee at low prices [34][35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The "anti - involution" premium has been squeezed out, and the fundamentals have insufficient driving force. They are expected to be range - bound [36][37]. - **Methanol**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the methanol market has returned to fundamentals, which are weak in the short - term. Attention should be paid to downstream resistance and port - to - inland price differences [38][39]. - **PP**: PP's price rose driven by coal prices. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak, so the market is in a weak pattern [40][42]. - **PE**: PE's price was driven up by the coal - market. The current demand is weak, and the inventory is high, but the demand is expected to recover in August [43][45]. - **PVC**: PVC's pricing has returned to the industry. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. Short - selling is recommended [46][47]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be volatile. The supply and demand of pure benzene are both increasing, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase in August and September [48][50]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for short - selling due to weak supply, demand, and high inventory [51][53]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to be weakly volatile, following the cost - end. The supply has increased, but the demand is affected by weather and funds. The medium - to - long - term demand is expected to improve [53][54]. - **Urea**: Urea is under pressure. Although the export demand provides some support, the agricultural demand is weakening [55][56]. - **Glass, Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: They show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance state; and caustic soda may start the delivery logic in August [57][58][59][60]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp is expected to be volatile after a decline. The supply and inventory are high, and the demand has no obvious long - term increase, but there is seasonal support in August [61][62]. - **Propylene**: The price of propylene in the Shandong market has a slight increase. The supply is loose, and the demand has little change. The cost is affected by multiple factors [64][66]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs is stable, and the supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The outer - market US soybeans are weak, and the inner - market soybeans are pricing the far - month supply gap. It is recommended to long - buy in the far - month contracts [68][69].

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The planting weather of US soybeans in the outer market remains favorable, showing weakness; the downside space of the near - month contracts of the domestic soybean system is limited, and the market is gradually shifting to price the supply - demand gap logic of the far - month contracts. The rapeseed system has strengthened in the short term due to the alleviation of its own warehouse receipt pressure [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include the expectation of Sino - US talks supporting the US soybean market, strong bullish sentiment for far - month contracts under weather speculation, and the cost - end support of Brazilian export premiums for far - month contracts. Bearish factors include the rebound of basis due to some oil mill shutdowns, the expected large soybean arrivals in August, September, and October, and the future supply uncertainty of rapeseed [6][7][9] 2. Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies Price Forecast - The monthly price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 10.2% and a historical percentile of 7.8% (3 - year). The monthly price range of rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 12.7% and a historical percentile of 7.2% (3 - year) [3]. Hedging Strategies - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - Feed mills with low regular inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. 3. Market Data Futures Prices - Closing prices and daily changes of various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts are provided, such as the closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3065 with no change, and the closing price of rapeseed meal 09 is 2724 with a 1.72% increase [7]. Spreads - Spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are given, like the spread of M01 - 05 is 314 with a 5 - point increase [9]. Import Costs and Profits - Import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseeds are presented, for example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4667.1163 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.2014 yuan/ton [9].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report: Coal Turmoil Resurfaces, EG Slightly Strengthens [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" logic has temporarily ended, and price trends have returned to fundamentals, with the previous premium being rapidly squeezed out. For ethylene glycol, the inventory accumulation in the third quarter is small, the supply-demand contradiction is not significant, the downward space is limited under low inventory, and the inventory accumulation expectation is further postponed. After the correction, the valuation is relatively neutral, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range following market sentiment [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ethylene glycol is 4200 - 4700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.4%. For PX, it is 6500 - 7400, with a volatility of 11.78% and a percentile of 17.7%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 5300, with a volatility of 9.30% and a percentile of 4.6%. For bottle chips, it is 5800 - 6500, with a volatility of 7.92% and a percentile of 0.9% [2] Polyester Hedging Strategy Table Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in ethylene glycol prices, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a hedging ratio of 25% in the entry range of 4450 - 4550 to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. Also, buy put options (EG2509P4350) to prevent large price drops and sell call options (EG2509C4500) to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% in the entry range of 10 - 15 [2] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a hedging ratio of 50% in the entry range of 4280 - 4330 to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell put options (EG2509P4350) with a hedging ratio of 75% in the entry range of 20 - 30 to collect option premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops [2] Core Contradictions - The "anti-involution" logic has ended, and prices have returned to fundamentals. Ethylene glycol has limited downward space in the third quarter due to small inventory accumulation and low inventory levels, and is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] 利多解读 - On August 4, the Emergency Management Department released the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations", causing coal prices to rebound and production costs to increase [3] 利空解读 - There are market rumors that large filament manufacturers' FDY is suffering serious losses and there are plans to cut production, but the implementation remains to be observed. The "anti-involution" sentiment has cooled after the July 30 Politburo meeting, and valuations have returned to fundamentals. The restart of previously shut - down Saudi Arabian plants has led to an upward revision of September import expectations [6] Polyester Raw Material Production Device Summary - The report lists the production devices of MEG, PX, and PTA put into operation before May 30, 2005, including their regions, enterprises, addresses, capacities, production times, operating statuses, total capacities, capacity proportions, and monthly production impacts [7] Polyester Daily Table - It provides price, spread, warehouse receipt, processing fee, and profit data for various polyester - related products on August 6, 2025, August 5, 2025, and July 30, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes [8][9]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term trend of nickel and stainless steel is mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the support of nickel iron [1] - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was volatile, with no obvious logical changes in the fundamentals. The first - phase benchmark price for Indonesia in August was released, nickel ore prices stabilized with a slight upward movement, and downstream products were differentiated. Nickel iron prices continued to decline, and stainless steel showed a relatively strong intraday trend, but the stability of its current position remains to be tested. Macroscopically, the movement of the US dollar index can be followed [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. The predicted price range of stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has a risk of impairment, short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline risks (sell 60% of NI main contracts), and sell call options (sell 50% of over - the - counter/on - exchange options) [2] - **Procurement Management**: When a company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs on the futures market, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with trading volumes based on the procurement plan [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has a risk of impairment, short stainless steel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline risks (sell 60% of SS main contracts), and sell call options (sell 50% of over - the - counter/on - exchange options) [3] - **Procurement Management**: When a company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs on the futures market, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with trading volumes based on the procurement plan [3] Market Conditions Nickel - The latest values of Shanghai nickel main continuous, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 contracts are 120,910 yuan/ton, 120,910 yuan/ton, 121,060 yuan/ton, and 121,230 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0%, 0.23%, 0.27%, and 0.27%. The latest value of LME nickel 3M is 15,105 US dollars/ton, with a daily change of 0.30%. Trading volume decreased by 29.62% to 84,818 lots, open interest decreased by 5.16% to 90,543 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.17% to 20,923 tons. The basis of the main contract increased by 75.0% to - 1,190 yuan/ton [6] Stainless Steel - The latest values of stainless steel main continuous, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 contracts are 12,960 yuan/ton, 12,960 yuan/ton, 13,005 yuan/ton, and 13,035 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0%, 0.27%, 0.27%, and 0.15%. Trading volume decreased by 34.70% to 79,826 lots, open interest decreased by 1.74% to 85,949 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.06% to 102,865 tons. The basis of the main contract increased by 4.55% to 345 yuan/ton [7] Industry Inventory - Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,486 tons, a decrease of 795 tons from the previous period; LME nickel inventory is 211,254 tons, an increase of 2,172 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 966.2 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 33,415 tons, an increase of 182 tons [8] Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and include elements such as iron and cobalt; Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase the demand for stainless steel; nickel iron trading is warming up [6] Negative Factors - Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow; pure nickel inventory is high; nickel ore seasonal inventory increases, and the bottom support is somewhat weakened; Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment was reignited by the news of strict inspections on over - production in Shanxi coal mines, and the far - month contracts of coking coal hit the daily limit first. The strengthening of the reverse spread of coking coal 9 - 1 reflects concerns about near - month delivery pressure and strong expectations for far - month valuations. The "anti - involution" policy may be hyped repeatedly, and the coking coal futures price is expected to be more volatile. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - and long - term trends of coal and coke. Attention should be paid to macro events at home and abroad such as the military parade, the Fed's interest rate cut game, and the Fourth Plenary Session. Investors without spot handling ability are not recommended to participate in the delivery game near the 09 contract delivery. The previously recommended coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread can consider taking profits, and it is recommended to temporarily observe the 09 on - disk coking profit [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for coking coal is predicted to be 950 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the monthly price range is 1480 - 1900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategy**: For the arbitrage scenario of monthly spread arbitrage with no spot exposure, the recommended strategy is to short the coking coal 9 - 1 spread (jm2509&jm2601), with a suggested entry range of (- 40, - 30) [3]. 2. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the warehouse receipts of rebar increased by 5723 tons to 88363 tons, hot - rolled coil remained unchanged at 55998 tons, iron ore remained unchanged at 3600 hands, coking coal decreased by 500 hands to 0 hands, coke remained unchanged at 760 hands, ferrosilicon decreased by 112 sheets to 21930 sheets, and silicomanganese decreased by 243 sheets to 77611 sheets [3]. 3. Core Contradictions - The news of strict inspections on over - production in Shanxi coal mines reignited market sentiment, and the far - month contracts of coking coal hit the daily limit first. The strengthening of the coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread reflects concerns about near - month delivery pressure and strong expectations for far - month valuations. The "anti - involution" policy may be hyped repeatedly, and the coking coal futures price is expected to be more volatile. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - and long - term trends of coal and coke. Attention should be paid to macro events at home and abroad. Near the 09 contract delivery, investors without spot handling ability are not recommended to participate in the delivery game, and the previously recommended coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread can consider taking profits, and it is recommended to temporarily observe the 09 on - disk coking profit [4]. 4. Profit and Loss Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The expectation of "anti - involution" in coal mines remains, and the mine production increase space in the second half of the year may be limited. The downstream steel mills have good profits, providing a basis for raw material price increases. There is room for policy expectation game before the Fourth Plenary Session in October [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The import profit of overseas coal has recovered, and there will be pressure on subsequent arrivals. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has resumed, with more than 1000 trucks per day currently. Off - balance - sheet inventory in the spot - futures market flows into the market, putting pressure on spot prices [5]. 5. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the basis of coking coal and coke futures had different degrees of change, and the on - disk coking profit decreased from - 18 to - 50 [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, most coal and coke spot prices remained unchanged, and the immediate coking profit increased from - 60 to - 12 [7]. 6. Import Profits and Ratios - **Import Profits**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the import profit of Mongolian coal (long - term agreement) decreased by 51 to 234 yuan/ton, the import profit of Australian coal (Peak Downs) increased by 15 to - 241 yuan/ton, etc [8]. - **Ratios**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal increased from 2.39 to 2.4072 [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the far - month contracts may experience increased volatility. From a real - world perspective, the near - month contracts are under pressure due to large warehouse receipt pressure and are following the delivery logic [2]. - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and the 09 contract is facing delivery, with trading returning to reality. There is a possibility of a second round of policy expectation fermentation, but the high inventory in the middle reaches has triggered a negative feedback [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - Glass price range forecast for the month is 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. Soda ash price range forecast for the month is 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management (Glass)**: For high glass product inventory, to prevent losses, sell FG2509 glass futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management (Glass)**: For low glass procurement inventory, buy FG2601 glass futures at 1000 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601P1000 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Inventory Management (Soda Ash)**: For high soda ash product inventory, sell SA2509 soda ash futures at 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 60 - 70 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. - **Procurement Management (Soda Ash)**: For low soda ash procurement inventory, buy SA2601 soda ash futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% hedging ratio [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Price Data - **Glass Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1332 (up 33 or 2.54% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1077 (down 9 or - 0.83%), and the 01 contract was 1232 (up 3 or 0.24%) [5]. - **Glass Spot**: On August 5, 2025, the average price of glass in Shahe was 1188 (down 2 from the previous day). Prices in Central and East China decreased by 20, and in Southwest China by 10 [6]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was 1427 (up 45 or 3.26% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1271 (up 18 or 1.44%), and the 01 contract was 1368 (up 28 or 2.09%) [7]. - **Soda Ash Spot**: On August 5, 2025, the heavy - alkali market prices in most regions remained unchanged, while the price in Qinghai decreased by 20, and in Shahe increased by 18 [8].