1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction affecting the price trend of oils and fats is the supply - demand game in the origin under policy guidance. Domestic drivers are limited, and future price movements rely on favorable factors from the origin. The short - term market may maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [2][3]. - It is not recommended to short oils and fats due to obvious international market support. There may be an opportunity to focus on the long - P1 short - P5 spread trading of palm oil [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - **Palm oil**: Drought in the first half of the year led to an early entry into the production - reduction period in the origin. Malaysia's inventory pressure is expected to ease, while Indonesia's B40 policy and slow production recovery limit export growth, with subsequent supply expected to be tight. India's demand supports global palm oil consumption [2]. - **Soybean oil**: The US biodiesel policy supports US soybean crushing. The year - on - year decline in supply tightens the US soybean balance sheet. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations may lead to a potential shortage in China's soybean imports [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: There is limited speculation on origin weather recently. Sino - Canadian relations are the focus, but rapeseed oil supply can be supplemented through other channels, and the opening of the Australian rapeseed import window may make up for part of the Canadian rapeseed shortfall [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Suggestion - **Basis strategy**: Consider using accumulated option purchases to reduce basis pricing risks in combination with the oscillation range, and view the short - term basis as weakening [22]. - **Spread strategy**: Consider a long - P1 short - P5 spread trading when the P1 - 5 spread is in the range of (200, 230) [22]. - **Hedging and arbitrage strategy**: Short the soybean - palm oil 2601 spread when it is in the range of (- 1040, - 940) [22]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestion - Price range forecasts for monthly oils and fats: soybean oil 8200 - 9000, rapeseed oil 9700 - 10300, palm oil 9200 - 9900 [25]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides current price, price change, and other data for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as information on inter - month and inter - variety spreads [25][26][27][28]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Floods in Sabah, Malaysia, and multiple institutions indicating that Malaysia will enter the production - reduction period early; SPPOMA's production data showing a month - on - month decline [34][36]. - **Negative information**: MPOB report showing lower - than - expected exports; USDA's US soybean yield being higher than expected; Some state legislators opposing the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions [34]. - **Spot trading information**: Palm oil trading improved slightly, soybean oil trading declined, and rapeseed oil had basically no trading [31]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - September 15: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data [36]. - September 20: CFTC agricultural product position report [38]. - High - frequency production and high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil [38]. - Progress on the decision regarding the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions in the US [38]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic market**: Palm oil showed a pattern of oscillating downward and then stabilizing and rebounding this week. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil generally followed palm oil. Palm oil's important profit - making positions were cautious, with price fluctuations narrowing and open interest decreasing. Soybean oil's open interest decreased overall but stabilized recently. Rapeseed oil prices rose, open interest increased significantly, and the basis was small [36]. - **Spread structure**: The near - month term structure of oils and fats was steeper this week. The P1 - 5 and Y1 - 5 spreads were mainly in a consolidation state, while the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread strengthened significantly. Oils and fats remained in a backwardation structure [38][39]. - **Basis structure**: The basis of major oils and fats contracts was mainly in a consolidation state this week, and the basis was expected to remain weak in the short term due to high domestic inventory and weak downstream demand [43]. - **Inter - variety spread structure**: The rapeseed - palm oil 01 and rapeseed - soybean oil 01 spreads strengthened this week, while the soybean - palm oil spread continued to decline [45]. - **Foreign market**: The domestic market mainly followed the foreign market's oscillation and consolidation. CBOT soybean oil management funds reduced their net positions, while producers/ traders/ processors/ users slightly increased their positions [47]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - The POGO spread remains at a high level, and the BOHO spread, although declining, is still positive, indicating high production costs for bio - fuels [50]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the import profit inversion has slightly narrowed, but due to high inventory and general domestic demand, the attitude towards new ship purchases is expected to be cautious [52]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Malaysia's palm oil is expected to enter the production - reduction season earlier. The inventory pressure will be further relieved, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline [54]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm oil**: Trade - purchase willingness is low, with monthly purchases of about 200,000 tons in September and October. Supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and inventory is expected to further decline [55]. - **Soybean oil**: Soybean arrivals in September and October are still high, with a risk of raw - material overstocking. The soybean crushing rate is expected to maintain at 50% - 60% in the fourth quarter, but soybean oil supply may decrease significantly from December [55]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory pressure of the three major oils and fats is large, and demand is weak. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may drive catering demand, overall terminal demand is still expected to be weaker than last year [57].

Summary - As of the reporting date, the shipping volume of industrial products increased significantly, marginally increasing the demand for large - vessel transportation, especially for Capesize vessels. The Capesize vessel freight index BCI soared week - on - week. Meanwhile, the BPI, BSI, and BHSI freight indices maintained an upward trend, supporting the further rise of the BDI composite freight index. The shipping demand for both agricultural and industrial products remained high, benefiting dry - bulk carriers, especially Capesize vessels [2]. Spot Index Review BDI Freight Index Analysis - Compared with the data on September 9, the week - on - week increase of mainstream vessel - type freight indices continued, but the growth rate slightly narrowed. Among the sub - vessel - type freight indices, the BCI freight index had a weekly increase of over 5%, the largest among all vessel types. The previously strongest BPI freight index's growth rate shrank to less than 3%, and the BSI & BHSI freight index's growth rate shrank to less than 2%. Specifically, the BDI composite freight index closed at 2154 points, up 3.61% week - on - week; the BCI freight index closed at 3189 points, up 5.74% week - on - week; the BPI freight index closed at 1968 points, up 2.34% week - on - week; the BSI freight index closed at 1491 points, up 1.22% week - on - week; the BHSI freight index closed at 804 points, up 1.52% week - on - week [5]. FDI Far - East Dry - Bulk Freight Index - On September 16, the FDI composite index, FDI rent - freight index, and FDI spot - freight index all rebounded. In the FDI rent - freight index, the rent and freight of most Capesize vessels increased month - on - month with a relatively large increase. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1371.6 points, up 0.78% month - on - month; the FDI rent index closed at 1700.97 points, up 1.1% month - on - month; among them, the Capesize vessel rent index closed at 1852.66 points, up 2.28% month - on - month; the Panamax vessel rent index closed at 1559.38 points, up 0.69% month - on - month; the Supramax vessel rent index closed at 1640.29 points, down 0.26% month - on - month; the FDI freight index closed at 1152.03 points, up 0.47% month - on - month [10]. Dry - Bulk Shipping Situation Tracking Shipping Vessel Quantity of Shipping Countries on the Day - On September 17, among major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 50 shipping vessels, Russia used 15, Argentina used 17, Ukraine used 1, Canada used 1, and Australia used 2. Among major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 60 shipping vessels, Guinea used 35, Indonesia used 46, Russia used 22, South Africa used 17, Brazil used 11, and the United States used 9 [18]. Shipping Volume and Vessel - Usage Analysis on the Day - In terms of agricultural product shipping, 23 vessels were used for corn shipping, 19 for wheat, 19 for soybeans, 9 for soybean meal, and 13 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipping, 111 vessels were used for coal shipping, 68 for iron ore, and 15 for other dry goods. In terms of vessel types, the most Panamax - plus vessels were needed for agricultural product shipping (36), followed by 21 Supramax vessels and 18 Handysize vessels. For industrial product shipping, the most Capesize vessels were needed (100), followed by 66 Panamax - plus vessels and 44 Supramax vessels [19]. Tracking of the Number of Vessels at Major Ports - The data of the current week showed that except for the number of vessels at Australian ports decreasing month - on - month, the number of vessels at other ports increased month - on - month. In particular, the number of vessels at major Chinese ports increased by 9. The data in mid - to - late September showed that "the number of vessels at four ports increased", but the increase rate was much lower than the previous statistics. It was expected that the number of dry - bulk vessels docked at Chinese ports would increase by 4 month - on - month, the number of vessels docked at six Australian ports would increase by 8 month - on - month, the number of vessels at South African ports would increase by 2 month - on - month, and the number of vessels at Brazilian ports would increase by 2 month - on - month [19][20]. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On September 17, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $40 per ton, and the near - term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 4056.24 yuan per ton. On September 16, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $27,720 per day, and the latest quote for the iron - ore arrival price was $122.65 per thousand tons. On September 16, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14,689 per day, and on September 15, the latest quote for the steam - coal arrival price was 548.64 yuan per ton. On September 16, the Handysize vessel freight index was quoted at 802.4 points, and on September 12, the ACFR quote for 4 - meter medium - grade radiata pine was $114 per cubic meter [23].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 16, 2025 - Analyst: Yu Junchen [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The container shipping index (European line) futures opened higher and fluctuated, with a decline near the close. Except for EC2510, all other contract prices rose to varying degrees. In the short term, the near - month contract futures prices are likely to fluctuate and decline, and high - short opportunities should be monitored [3]. EC Risk Management Strategy Position Management - For those with existing positions but full capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), it is recommended to short container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at an entry range of 1250 - 1350 [2]. Cost Management - For those facing increased blank sailings by shipping companies or approaching the peak season, and wanting to book cabins based on orders (short spot exposure), it is recommended to buy container shipping index futures (EC2510) at an entry range of 1000 - 1100 to lock in booking costs in advance [2]. Market Analysis Core Contradiction - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) were affected by factors such as reaching short - term lows, sentiment, and the commodity market. The spot cabin quotes (except Maersk) were basically stable, but Maersk's European line spot cabin quotes continued to decline, and the cargo volume in the container shipping market was still relatively insufficient [3]. Long - Bias Interpretation - On September 14, Hamas suspended negotiations on a cease - fire and the exchange of detainees in the Gaza Strip with Israel [4]. Short - Bias Interpretation - Maersk's new weekly European line spot cabin quotes continued to decline, with the 20 - foot container price falling below $900. The basis of EC contracts showed different degrees of decline [5]. Price and Spread Data EC Contracts - On September 16, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1169.7, up 0.57% daily and down 7.80% weekly; EC2512 closed at 1673.8, up 1.06% daily and down 0.54% weekly; EC2602 closed at 1572.1, up 3.64% daily and 2.93% weekly; EC2604 closed at 1283.7, up 2.69% daily and 2.15% weekly; EC2606 closed at 1471.6, up 2.77% daily and 2.59% weekly; EC2608 closed at 1625.9, up 1.84% daily and 1.11% weekly [5][6]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between different EC contracts also showed corresponding changes, such as EC2510 - 2602 being - 402.4, down 48.6 daily and 143.7 weekly [5]. Shipping Quotes Maersk Quotes - For Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam routes, the 20GP and 40GP quotes showed different trends. For example, on October 1, the 20GP opening quote was $882, down $99 from the previous week, and the 40GP opening quote was $1470, down $157 from the previous week [8]. Global Freight Index - SCFIS: European line decreased by 8.06% to 1440.24 points; SCFIS: US - West line increased by 37.67% to 1349.84 points; SCFI: European line decreased by 12.24% to $1154/TEU; SCFI: US - West line increased by 8.27% to $2370/FEU; XSI: European line decreased by 5.75% to $2083/FEU; XSI: US - West line increased by 10.0% to $2487/FEU; FBX composite freight index decreased by 2.82% to $1967/FEU [9]. Port Data Global Port Waiting Time - The waiting times at ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yantian showed different changes on September 15 compared to September 14. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.251 days to 1.401 days [14]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - The speeds of 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + container ships decreased slightly on September 15 compared to September 14, and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor remained at 10 [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Focus on the central bank's attitude. The bond market was less affected by the strong performance of the A-share index. The better-than-expected issuance of 20-year new bonds in the primary market drove the bond futures up in the afternoon. The market has low expectations for interest rate cuts. If the Fed cuts interest rates by more than 25bp tonight, it may drive the domestic bond market. The trading strategy is to buy on dips and not chase the rise. If the market continues to rise tomorrow, take profit on previous long positions [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - On Wednesday, bond futures opened lower and closed higher across the board, and spot bond yields declined. The open market conducted 418.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 114.5 billion yuan. There was also a 150 billion yuan treasury cash fixed deposit. The funding situation remained tight, and DR001 rose to 1.49% [2] 3.2. Intraday News - The weighted winning bid rate of the 20-year treasury bond issued by the Ministry of Finance was 2.1616%, with an overall multiple of 5.71 and a marginal multiple of 2.16. Former central bank official Sheng Songcheng said that in the current economic situation, reserve requirement ratio cuts are better than interest rate cuts in China, but there is still room for interest rate cuts [3] 3.3. Market Analysis - The A-share index hit a new high today, but the bond market was less affected. The issuance of 20-year new bonds in the primary market was better than expected, and the winning bid rate was lower than the secondary market, driving the bond futures up in the afternoon. The market has low expectations for interest rate cuts. If the Fed cuts interest rates by more than 25bp tonight, it may drive the domestic bond market. The market sentiment is okay. The trading strategy is to buy on dips and not chase the rise. If the market continues to rise tomorrow, take profit on previous long positions [4] 3.4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025-09-17 | 2025-09-16 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.45 | 102.41 | 0.04 | | TF2512 | 105.87 | 105.78 | 0.09 | | T2512 | 108.135 | 108.01 | 0.125 | | TL2512 | 115.82 | 115.52 | 0.3 | | TS Basis (CTD) | -0.0395 | -0.0241 | -0.0154 | | TF Basis (CTD) | -0.0011 | 0.0072 | -0.0083 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.2948 | 0.3299 | -0.0351 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.5555 | 0.3712 | 0.1843 | | TS Contract Position (Lots) | 79034 | 77964 | 1070 | | TF Contract Position (Lots) | 147322 | 144812 | 2510 | | T Contract Position (Lots) | 246189 | 240621 | 5568 | | TL Contract Position (Lots) | 166472 | 168706 | -2234 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 38558 | 43740 | -5182 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 70704 | 89826 | -19122 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 101611 | 138741 | -37130 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 132135 | 177470 | -45335 | [5]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly analysis of the container shipping industry by Nanhua Futures, focusing on the European Line (EC) container shipping index futures [1] - It provides insights into market trends, trading strategies, and industry news for the week of September 14, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - There is no specific investment rating provided for the industry in the report [1] Group 3: Core Views - The core factors affecting the EC price are the spot cabin quotes on the European line and weak off - season demand. The continuous decline of spot cabin quotes in late September led to a weakening of the futures price [1] - In the short - term, the futures price may continue to oscillate slightly downward, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound as it has reached a short - term low [4] - In the long - term, if the Red Sea resumes shipping due to geopolitical changes, or if the off - season demand further weakens, the European line freight rates may decline [7] Group 4: Trading Strategies Trading - Type Strategy - The trend is a continuation of the downward momentum. The short - term support for the main contract is in the range of 1050 - 1100, and the pressure level is in the range of 1200 - 1250 [9][10] - For hedging, one can sell at high positions, but also pay attention to the low - buying opportunity of the 12 - contract at 1550 - 1600 points [10] Arbitrage Strategy - For the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [12] Industrial Customer Operation Strategy - For the spot - futures (basis) strategy, traders can short the basis at an appropriate time [12] - For the cabin management of enterprises with full capacity or poor booking volume, they can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits. For cost management, when the shipping company's empty - sailing intensity increases or the peak season is approaching, they can buy the container shipping index futures to lock in the booking cost [13] Group 5: Market Information Positive News - In the first eight months of 2025, the EU was China's second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.88 trillion yuan, a 4.3% increase [27] - The Israeli Prime Minister's statement about the cease - fire in Gaza may potentially ease geopolitical tensions [27] - In the first half of 2025, China's cross - border e - commerce imports and exports showed a prosperous trend, with a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [27] Negative News - Mexico plans to impose up to 50% tariffs on Chinese and some Asian products [31] - The spot cabin quotes on the European line of major shipping companies continued to decline in late September, with Maersk and MSC's small - container quotes falling below $1000 [31] - The SCFI European line declined rapidly [31] Group 6: Market Analysis Single - Side Trend and Capital Flow - The EC futures price continued to oscillate weakly, guided by the spot booking price. Technically, the moving averages are in a short - position arrangement, with a slight downward expectation [30] - The net short - position of the main positions in container shipping decreased slightly, indicating a cautious trading sentiment [32] Basis Structure - The SCFIS European line continued to decline, with the basis narrowing compared to the previous week. Traders can short the basis at an appropriate time [34] Inter - Period Structure - The spreads of the EC2510 - 2512 and EC2510 - 2602 contract combinations widened significantly. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [36][37] Group 7: Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the first half of 2025, major shipping companies such as COSCO SHIPPING, Maersk, and CMA CGM had relatively good profit and revenue performance, while some companies like ONE and Yang Ming Marine Transport saw a significant reduction in profits [39] - For the second half of the year, shipping companies believe that the uncertainty has increased, and they will focus more on cost control, which may affect freight rates from the supply and cost sides [39]

股指期货日报 2025年9月17日 王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 关注预期及量能变化，即使乐观不建议急于追仓 市场回顾 今日股指继续小幅放量，规模指数整体偏强，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨0.61%。从资金面来看，两市成 交额回升353.36亿元。期指方面，IH放量上涨，其余期指缩量上涨。 重要资讯 核心观点 今日股市走势整体偏强，隔夜美指回落至97下方，关于FOMC议息决议预期交易仍在发力，受此影响，与昨 日类似，今日继续表现为小盘股偏强，行业层面，前期受支撑的电新以及汽车赛道继续领涨。量能延续震荡 之势，显示观望情绪为主，目前市场已经定价美联储九月降息25BP，若会议没有释放更加鸽派的信号，预计 靴子落地后，市场或出现修正后，震荡的行情，整体影响预计持续时间不长。若出现更加鸽派信号，预计也 将在较短时间内反映完成，关注量能是否会再度持续攀升，若交易活跃度没有再升一个台阶，并且维持住， 则不建议追涨。 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | 0. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction affecting the lithium carbonate futures price stems from the tug - of - war between supply - side expected changes and demand - side peak - season support. The resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine under CATL is a key variable. The supply - side dynamics have led to market anticipation of future price declines, while the demand side provides strong support [3]. - The resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine is uncertain. Before September 30, the lithium carbonate futures price is likely to remain stable. After that, price fluctuations will depend on "demand fulfillment strength". It is expected that until National Day, the lithium carbonate futures price will fluctuate between 68,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include potential mine - end production halts in Jiangxi and new policies supporting downstream demand. Bearish factors include the risk of insufficient restocking demand during the peak season and the potential resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Futures Data - **Price Prediction**: The strong pressure level for the lithium carbonate main contract is 80,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.0% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 65.9% [2]. - **Contract Data**: For the main contract, the closing price is 73,640 yuan/ton (up 0.63% daily, 4.13% weekly), trading volume is 343,863 lots (down 31.26% daily, 54.24% weekly), and open interest is 294,624 lots (down 1.93% daily, 13.55% weekly). Similar data are provided for the weighted contract and other contract spreads [9][10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 39,234 lots, up 0.0106 daily and 0.0297 weekly [10]. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: Different types of lithium ore have varying price changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,815 yuan/ton (stable daily, 0% weekly), and lithium辉石 (Li2O: 6% from Australia CIF) is 825 US dollars/ton (up 0.61% daily, 2.48% weekly) [20]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium**: Industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have different price movements. For instance, the industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,900 yuan/ton (up 0.42% daily, down 0.42% weekly) [24]. - **Price Spreads**: The electric - carbon to industrial - carbon price spread is 2,250 yuan/ton (stable), the electric - hydrogen to electric - carbon spread is 5,820 yuan/ton (down 5.67% daily, 6.43% weekly), and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF Japan and South Korea to domestic spread is - 7,602.85 yuan/ton (up 4.90% daily, 11.72% weekly) [27]. - **Downstream Products**: Various downstream lithium - related products such as phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, ternary materials, and electrolytes also have their own price changes. For example, the average price of phosphoric iron lithium (power - type) is 33,540 yuan/ton (up 0.21% daily) [29]. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The main - continuous basis of lithium carbonate and brand - specific basis quotes are presented. For example, the basis quotes of some well - known lithium companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium are provided, with values ranging from - 1,100 to 300 yuan/ton for different specifications and contracts [31][32]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 39,234 lots, an increase of 410 lots from the previous day. Different warehouses show different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [35]. Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit from purchasing lithium ore to produce lithium carbonate is presented, including from purchasing lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%) and lithium辉石 concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) [39]. - **Import Profit**: The lithium carbonate import profit is also shown, although specific details are not fully elaborated in the given text [40].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - The copper price's rise and fall on Tuesday met expectations. The rise was due to the decline of the US dollar index, but the copper's fundamentals don't support further strengthening, and the macro - expectation remains unchanged in the short term. High - level oscillation may be the main trend for copper in the next few trading days [4] Summary by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 80,880 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 8.40%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 6.3% [3] Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2511C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable [3] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 78,000 yuan/ton [3] Factors Affecting Copper Price Bullish Factors - The US reaches a tariff agreement with other countries; increased expectations of interest - rate cuts lead to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; the lower support level rises [9] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies; global demand decreases due to tariff policies; the adjustment of the US copper tariff policy causes an extremely high COMEX inventory [6][7] Copper Futures Market Data - The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 80,880 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract is 80,870 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan (- 0.09%), and the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract is 80,880 yuan/ton with no change. The LME Copper 3M is 10,117 US dollars/ton, down 72 US dollars (- 0.71%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.07, up 0.03 (0.37%) [8] Copper Spot Market Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 81,120 yuan/ton, 81,160 yuan/ton, 81,120 yuan/ton, and 81,320 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 180 yuan (0.22%), 200 yuan (0.25%), 200 yuan (0.25%), and 250 yuan (0.31%) respectively. The Shanghai Non - ferrous, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous spot premium/discounts are 75 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, 70 yuan/ton, and 115 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of - 5 yuan (- 6.25%), - 40 yuan (- 57.14%), - 25 yuan (- 26.32%), and - 10 yuan (- 8%) respectively [13] Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread - The current scrap - to - refined spread (tax - included) is 2,085.21 yuan/ton, up 21.38 yuan (1.04%); the reasonable scrap - to - refined spread (tax - included) is 1,509.15 yuan/ton, down 0.85 yuan (- 0.06%); the price advantage (tax - included) is 576.06 yuan/ton, up 22.23 yuan (4.01%). The current scrap - to - refined spread (tax - excluded) is 6,815 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (0.22%); the reasonable scrap - to - refined spread (tax - excluded) is 6,315.5 yuan/ton, down 5.9 yuan (- 0.09%); the price advantage (tax - excluded) is 499.5 yuan/ton, up 20.9 yuan (4.37%) [18] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts total 33,692 tons, up 3,049 tons (9.95%); International Copper warehouse receipts total 11,794 tons, up 321 tons (2.8%); Shanghai's Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 3,973 tons, up 2,315 tons (139.63%); the bonded total of Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts is 0 tons, down 100%; the tax - paid total of Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts is 33,692 tons, up 3,049 tons (9.95%) [22] - LME copper inventory totals 150,950 tons, down 1,675 tons (- 1.1%); COMEX copper inventory totals 312,868 tons, up 5,172 tons (1.68%) [24][25] Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is - 228.62 yuan/ton, down 90.09 yuan (65.03%); the copper concentrate TC is - 41.4 US dollars/ton, with no change [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The medium to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. In the short - term, the weekly lines of London gold and silver continue to close with positive candles, indicating that the strong pattern is expected to continue. However, short - term profit - taking pressure after the interest rate cut expectation materializes should be guarded against. For London gold, the support levels are 3650 and 3600, and the resistance levels are 3700 and 3800. For London silver, the support levels are 42.3 and 41.5, and the upper target is moved up to the 44 - 45 area. The trading strategy is to buy on dips, and those who already hold long positions should hold them cautiously [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, precious metal prices maintained a volatile and bullish pattern, with gold hitting a new high, reaching 3700 during the session, due to a sharp decline in the US dollar index and a fall in US Treasury yields. European and American stocks generally declined, and the VIX index rose. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3727.5 per ounce, up 0.23%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $42.88 per ounce, down 0.19%. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 842.08 yuan per gram, up 1.14%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 10108 yuan per kilogram, up 0.8%. US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, and real retail sales increased for 11 consecutive months, causing a slight adjustment in precious metals [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has slightly increased. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year, and a 25 - basis - point cut in September is highly likely. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 96.1%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 3.9%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 3.14 tons to 979.95 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings increased by 64.94 tons to 15217.84 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 12.2 tons to 1231.3 tons, and the SGX silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1252.4 tons in the week ending September 12 [2][3] This Week's Focus - This week's data is generally light. The key events include the Fed FOMC's announcement of the interest rate decision and economic outlook summary at 02:00 on Thursday, and Fed Chairman Powell's press conference on monetary policy at 2:30. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 19:00 on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Friday. US President Trump will make a state visit to the UK [3] Price Table - The latest prices and daily changes of SHFE gold and silver main contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, and CME gold and silver main contracts are provided, along with the daily price changes and percentage changes [6] Inventory and Position Table - Information on the latest prices, daily changes, and daily percentage changes of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver ETF holdings, is presented [17][19] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The data of the US dollar index, US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread are given, including their latest values, daily changes, and daily percentage changes [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Domestically, policies in the consumption field will continue to be introduced due to income distribution imbalance. The economy needs government support, with the production side remaining strong. Overseas, US inflation is resilient, and the market is concerned about the US job market. Focus on Fed Chair Powell's speech and the dot - plot [2] - For the US dollar index, there is a risk of downward break - out. The RMB exchange rate may form a "three - price convergence" pattern. It is advisable to short the US dollar index and use appropriate hedging strategies for enterprises [3][4] - The stock index is expected to be mainly volatile. Wait for the Fed's interest - rate cut to land and hold positions for observation [5] - The sentiment of treasury bonds has recovered. Consider holding long positions at low prices [6] - The container shipping market has insufficient cargo volume. Near - month contracts may fall, and short - selling opportunities can be focused on [8] - Precious metals may be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Be cautious of profit - taking after the interest - rate cut expectation is fulfilled [11] - Copper is expected to be in high - level consolidation [12] - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry chain vary. Aluminum may be bullish, alumina may be bearish, and cast aluminum alloy may be bullish [13][15][16] - Zinc is expected to be mainly volatile [16] - Nickel and stainless steel are affected by the macro level, and the fundamentals are relatively stable [17] - Tin is in high - level oscillation [18] - Lithium carbonate is supported by the peak - season demand [19] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a pattern of rising and then falling. Be cautious about polysilicon investment [20][21] - Lead is in high - level oscillation [21] - The trading logic of steel products is switching. Pay attention to policy implementation and demand [22] - Iron ore has limited upside and downside space [24][25] - Coal and coke are not recommended as short - selling targets in the black series. Pay attention to downstream restocking and policies [27] - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost. Focus on the impact of coking coal prices [28] - Crude oil is mainly driven by supply. It is recommended to short at high prices [32] - LPG is mainly volatile. Pay attention to PDH enterprise start - up [34] - PX - TA is in oscillation. PTA processing fees may be repaired [37] - MEG - bottle chips have a heavy inventory - building expectation. Do not short blindly [38] - PP is supported by the cost side. It is recommended to go long at low prices [41] - PE has a slow demand recovery and a weak pattern [44] - Pure benzene and styrene are in a strong - side oscillation. Observe the downstream restocking intention [46][47] - Fuel oil is waiting for an opportunity to short the cracking profit [47] - Low - sulfur fuel oil focuses on shorting the high - low sulfur spread in the far - month [48] - Asphalt follows the cost and waits for a long - position opportunity [48] - Rubber and 20 - number rubber continue to be in wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to weather and demand [51] - Urea is in a pattern of support below and suppression above, with the 01 contract expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [53] - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, the soda ash market is affected by supply and demand expectations, with a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [53] Summary by Directory Financial Futures Macro - China's Ministry of Commerce explores setting spring and autumn holidays for primary and secondary schools and promotes the opening of Internet and cultural fields. The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed has been slow to respond, and the market expects a 75 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the end of the year. The Fed's interest - rate meeting is highly anticipated [1][4] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose. The US inflation is resilient, and the market is concerned about the US job market. The RMB exchange rate may form a "three - price convergence" pattern [2][3][4] Stock Index - The stock index was volatile, with small - cap stocks relatively strong. Wait for the Fed's interest - rate cut to land and hold positions for observation [4][5] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds opened low and went high. The policy on expanding service consumption was released, and its impact on the market is limited. Consider holding long positions at low prices [6] Container Shipping - The container shipping index (European line) futures had a mixed performance. The new - week Maersk European line spot - cabin quotes continued to decline, and the cargo volume was insufficient. Focus on short - selling opportunities for near - month contracts [6][8] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices were strong. Gold reached a new high. Focus on the Fed's September FOMC meeting, including interest - rate cuts, dot - plots, and Powell's speech. The medium - to - long - term may be bullish, and be cautious of profit - taking [9][11] Copper - The copper price冲高回落. It is expected to be in high - level consolidation due to the conflict between macro and micro factors [11][12] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices rose due to interest - rate cut expectations and improved fundamentals, but the downstream receiving sentiment was poor. Alumina supply is in surplus, and prices may be weak. Cast aluminum alloy is supported by scrap aluminum shortages and may be bullish [13][15][16] Zinc - Zinc prices were mainly volatile. Supply is in surplus, and demand is average. Observe macro and consumption, and the short - term is in bottom - side strong - side oscillation [16] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel were affected by the macro level and mine - end disturbances. The fundamentals were relatively stable. Focus on subsequent macro - level positive news [16][17][18] Tin - Tin prices were in high - level oscillation. They were supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the short - term supply is tight [18] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose. Supported by the peak - season demand, the reasonable price range is 72000 - 76000 yuan/ton [18][19] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures had a pattern of rising and then falling. Industrial silicon has short - term positive sentiment support and long - term structural pressure. Polysilicon is affected by news and policies, and investment should be cautious [19][20][21] Lead - Lead prices were in high - level oscillation. The supply is weak relative to demand, and the short - term is in high - level oscillation [21] Black Metals Steel Products - The trading logic of steel products is switching. There is a high - supply and over - seasonal inventory - building pressure, but there is also support from the hot - rolled coil inventory decline and pre - holiday restocking expectations. Pay attention to policy implementation and demand [22][23] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices were oscillating. The fundamentals have slightly declined, and the upside and downside space are limited [24][25] Coal and Coke - Coal and coke prices were in high - level oscillation. The supply is frequently disturbed, and they are not recommended as short - selling targets in the black series. Pay attention to downstream restocking and policies [26][27] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices冲高回落. They are supported by cost, and the trading logic is the game between strong expectations and weak reality. Focus on the impact of coking coal prices [28] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose. Geopolitical disturbances dominate the price trend. Supply pressure is the core driving force, and it is recommended to short at high prices [30][31][32] LPG - LPG prices were mainly volatile. The supply is loose, and the demand has little change. Pay attention to PDH enterprise start - up [33][34] PX - TA - PX - TA prices were in oscillation. PX supply may increase in September, and PTA supply and demand are in a complex situation. PTA processing fees may be repaired [35][36][37] MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG - bottle chips have a heavy inventory - building expectation. Do not short blindly as the supply lacks elasticity and the downward space is limited [37][38] PP - PP prices were slightly up. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the recovery stage but the peak season is not obvious. The cost side provides support, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [38][40][41] PE - PE prices were slightly up. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is in the process of recovery but the speed is slow. It is in a weak pattern and is expected to be in oscillation [42][43][44] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene prices were in a strong - side oscillation. Pure benzene has an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. Styrene supply may increase after September, and the demand has limited growth. Observe the downstream restocking intention [46][47] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices were in a certain situation. The supply is expected to rise slowly, and the demand is stable. Wait for an opportunity to short the cracking profit [47] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil prices were in a certain situation. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. Focus on shorting the high - low sulfur spread in the far - month [48] Asphalt - Asphalt prices were in a certain situation. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by rain and funds. The inventory is improving. Try long - position after the cost stabilizes [48] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices were in wide - range oscillation. Affected by weather, supply, and demand, the short - term cost is supported, and the long - term needs to pay attention to policies and trade [50][51] Urea - Urea prices were in a certain situation. The market has sufficient supply and increasing inventory. There is support from exports, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 [51][52][53] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices were up. The inventory is decreasing, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand is stable, and it is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [53]