Ning Zheng Qi Huo
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近月偏弱,远月有支撑
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 12:07
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply side is facing a double - negative situation of "theoretical supply pressure increase" and "high live - animal inventory". The demand side is expected to weaken seasonally with only limited increase around the Dragon Boat Festival. Overall, the spot price is likely to adjust weakly. For trading, a short - selling strategy is recommended for near - term contracts, while long - buying opportunities on dips can be considered for far - term contracts. The reverse spread strategy of LH2509 - LH2601 contracts should be continuously monitored [2][21]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Supply Situation Analysis - The live - animal inventory is shifting from "accumulation" to "reduction", but the overall average weight of slaughtered pigs remains high, and there is no significant increase in slaughter volume, indicating slow inventory reduction. From October 2024 to March 2025, the number of newborn piglets increased by 7% year - on - year, suggesting a significant increase in pig slaughter from April to September [21]. 2. Demand Situation Analysis - As the weather gets hotter, demand is expected to weaken seasonally. Although there may be some increase in demand around the Dragon Boat Festival, the increase is limited based on the current market situation [2][21]. 3. Cost - Profit Analysis - The report mentions figures related to self - breeding and self - raising profit per head and profit per head from purchasing piglets, but no specific analysis of cost - profit is provided in the given text. 4. Market Outlook - The analysis of supply and demand is consistent with the previous parts. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach for near - term contracts and look for long - buying opportunities on dips for far - term contracts. Continue to focus on the reverse spread strategy of LH2509 - LH2601 contracts, and investors should pay close attention to factors such as the slaughter rhythm of the breeding side, demand changes, policy orientation, and epidemics [2][21].
钢材期货周度报告:淡季需求疲弱,成本支撑下移-20250603
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 12:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices fluctuated downward, with the average national rebar price dropping by 58 yuan/ton week-on-week. Affected by weak macro real - estate data, market sentiment was pessimistic. The seasonal inflection point of construction steel demand has emerged, demand has entered a downward channel, supply - side production remains high, inventory depletion has slowed down, and prices have generally declined. The overall operating logic of the steel market is still the continuous price decline caused by cost collapse, and the current price still faces significant downward pressure [2][4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated downward this week, with the average national rebar price dropping by 58 yuan/ton week - on - week. Due to weak macro real - estate data, market sentiment was pessimistic. The seasonal inflection point of construction steel demand has occurred, demand has entered a downward channel, supply - side production remains high, inventory depletion has slowed down, and prices have generally declined [2][4]. 2. Macro and Industry News - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that China's overall economic output continued to expand [6]. - US President Trump announced on May 30 (local time) that the tariff on imported steel would be raised from 25% to 50%, effective June 4 [7]. - The Office of the US Trade Representative extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China's technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation - related behaviors, policies, and practices from May 31, 2025, to August 31, 2025 [7]. - From January to April, driven by the automobile replacement subsidy policy, automobile production reached 10.12 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%; the automobile industry's revenue was 3.2552 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7%; costs were 2.8636 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%; and profits were 132.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [7]. - In June, the production plan for household air conditioners was 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year; the production plan for refrigerators was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year; and the production plan for washing machines was 6.75 million units, the same as the actual production in the same period last year [7]. - As of May 30, 5.3 million tons of coking plant production capacity had been shut down in Shandong Province. By the end of June 2025, the province's coking plant production capacity is expected to be reduced to about 33 million tons, a total reduction of about 10 million tons [7]. - From May 19 to May 25, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 14.174 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 411,000 tons, showing a slight inventory build - up, and the current inventory has reached the highest level since the beginning of the year [8]. - In May, major Chinese cities continued the trend of a structural increase in new - home prices and a decline in second - hand home prices. The average price of new residential buildings in 100 Chinese cities was 16,815 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 2.56% [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to a survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 101,700 tons, higher than last week's 95,300 tons. The trading of low - priced resources improved, pre - holiday stockpiling increased, and market pessimism eased [11]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The US tariff policy is still volatile, but the overall macro environment is bearish. In June, the weak demand for steel is expected to continue due to hot and rainy weather and the approaching high - school and college entrance exams. Under the situation of low demand and low efficiency, steel mills are increasing production control, which will also suppress raw material prices. The steel market's operating logic is still price decline due to cost collapse, and although the short - term valuation is low, the downward pressure on prices remains high [33]. - The black - series futures continued to decline. The main coking coal contract fell more than 10% this week, coke fell more than 6%, rebar and hot - rolled coil fell between 3% - 4%, and iron ore fell 2.84%. The main rebar contract closed at 2,961, down 10 points for the day, 85 points lower than last week's closing price, and the weekly settlement price was 2,982, down 81 points. The latest position was 2.296 million lots, an increase of 138,000 lots from last Friday, showing a pattern of increasing positions and falling prices. After breaking below the 3,000 - point mark on the weekly chart, it is difficult to return to this level, and the weekly moving averages are diverging downward. The reference operating range is 2,860 - 3,050 [33]. - Investment strategies: For single - sided trading, combine shorting at high levels with range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][33].
原油关注OPEC+产量落实情况
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 12:02
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ production increases strengthen the expectation of a rise in global crude oil supply. If OPEC+ continues to increase production, the global crude oil market may be in a long - term supply surplus, intensifying the current imbalance between supply and demand and putting long - term downward pressure on oil prices. Long - term attention should be paid to the implementation of OPEC+ production increases. Short - term factors such as Ukraine's attacks on Russian air bases, Canadian wildfires, and low inventory levels support oil prices. Short - term trading is recommended [2][6][33] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil oscillated. SC2507 opened at 451 for the week, reached a high of 468, a low of 461, and closed at 447, down 4.9 or 1.08% for the week. The 07 contract also oscillated [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 OPEC - In April, OPEC's total crude oil production decreased by 62,000 barrels per day to 26.71 million barrels per day, and the total production of "OPEC+" countries decreased by 106,000 barrels per day to 40.92 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan's oil production in April decreased by 41,000 barrels per day to 1.82 million barrels per day. The IEA raised its 2025 total oil supply forecast from 104.2 million barrels per day to 104.6 million barrels per day, and adjusted the 2026 global oil supply growth forecast from 960,000 barrels per day to 970,000 barrels per day, and the 2026 total oil supply forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 105.6 million barrels per day. On May 31, 2025, eight OPEC+ member countries decided to increase daily oil production by 411,000 barrels starting from July, which is the third consecutive month of supply expansion of the same scale since May. The alliance said the increase is based on a stable global economy and a healthy market, and it will adjust the supply rhythm dynamically according to the seasonal peak demand in the third quarter and reserve the right to "suspend or reverse the production increase" [5] 2.2 Russia - Russia, the second - largest oil producer in OPEC+, relies on a wartime economy for economic growth. President Putin estimated that Russia's GDP grew by 3.9% in 2024. Russia's crude oil production in 2024 was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In March 2025, its crude oil production dropped from 9.08 million barrels per day in February to 9.07 million barrels per day, still higher than the OPEC+ quota of 8.98 million barrels per day. However, OPEC data showed that in March, Russia's crude oil production further decreased to 8.963 million barrels per day. According to Russia's new energy strategy, its crude oil production is expected to stabilize at 540 million metric tons per year (10.8 million barrels per day) by 2050. The second - round Russia - Ukraine negotiation was held in Istanbul, Turkey on June 2, 2025. Ukraine claimed to have caused $7 billion in losses to Russia through the "Spider Web" operation. The Russian delegation brought a memorandum draft and other cease - fire proposals to the negotiation. Ukraine stated it would not compromise on territorial issues [7][8] 2.3 United States - As of the week ending May 23, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.401 million barrels per day, an increase of 9,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 4 to 461, the fifth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest level in three and a half years. The EIA predicted that US crude oil production in 2025 would be 13.51 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast of 13.61 million barrels per day, and the 2026 production would be 13.56 million barrels per day, previously estimated at 13.76 million barrels per day [9] 2.4 Americas' Production Increase - OPEC said that in 2025, the supply from non - OPEC+ countries would increase by about 800,000 barrels per day, lower than last month's forecast of 900,000 barrels per day. The IEA maintained its 2025 non - OPEC+ supply growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day and lowered the 2026 non - OPEC+ supply growth forecast from 920,000 barrels per day to 820,000 barrels per day [16] 2.5 Inventory - OPEC reported that in March 2025, the total OECD oil and crude oil product inventory was 3.996 billion barrels, a decrease of 13.41 million barrels from the previous quarter and an increase of 130,000 barrels from the same period last year. As of the week ending May 23, 2025, US total crude oil inventory was 842 million barrels, a decrease of 1.975 million barrels (- 0.23%) from the previous week; strategic crude oil inventory was 401 million barrels, an increase of 820,000 barrels (+ 0.20%); commercial crude oil inventory was 440 million barrels, a decrease of 2.795 million barrels (- 0.63%); and Cushing crude oil inventory was 23.51 million barrels, an increase of 75,000 barrels (+ 0.32%) [17] 2.6 Consumption - OPEC predicted that global oil demand would increase by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.28 million barrels per day in 2026, higher than the IEA's estimate of 741,000 barrels per day. The IEA raised its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 726,000 barrels per day to 741,000 barrels per day and the 2026 forecast from 692,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day, and predicted that the average global oil demand in 2026 would reach 104.7 million barrels per day. As of the week ending May 23, 2025, US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.328 million barrels per day, a decrease of 162,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the refinery utilization rate was 90.20%, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous week. On May 16, US refined oil processing fees were $174 per ton, and Asian refinery processing fees were low at $187 per ton. In the week of May 16, the profit of Shandong independent refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 335 yuan per ton, a decrease of 125 yuan per ton from the previous week and 30 yuan per ton from the same period last year. On May 16, the profit of major refineries was 751 yuan per ton, an increase of 310 yuan per ton from the previous week. In April, the US refinery utilization rate was 88.00%, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%; the European utilization rate was 81.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10% [20][24][25] 2.6 Geopolitics - On May 23, Iran and the US started the fifth - round indirect nuclear negotiation in Rome, Italy, mediated by Oman. US President Trump said there was a "very good dialogue" with Iran, but the Iranian Foreign Minister downplayed the progress. Oman's Foreign Minister said the negotiation "made some but not decisive progress." On May 31, Oman's Foreign Minister visited Iran to introduce the US negotiation proposal. The US insists that Iran should completely stop all levels of uranium enrichment activities, while Iran emphasizes that moderate uranium enrichment is part of its right to peaceful use of nuclear energy and is willing to sign a nuclear agreement if the US lifts sanctions. Hamas in Palestine announced its willingness to start a new round of cease - fire negotiations in the Gaza Strip, and Qatar and Egypt will continue to work for a cease - fire agreement [30][32] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Long - term attention should be paid to OPEC+ production increase implementation. Short - term trading is recommended due to short - term supporting factors [33]
双焦期货周度报告:上游持续累库,双焦价格下行-20250603
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 12:02
双焦期货周度报告 2025年06月03日 上游持续累库 双焦价格下行 摘 要: 行情回顾:焦炭累积降价两轮100-110元/吨。终端对于炼焦 煤采购节奏放缓,焦钢以去库为主,只维持刚需采购,对原料煤 保持较强的压价意图,而贸易商投机意愿冰冷,降价压力向煤矿 传导顺畅,国内各煤种价格普遍下跌50-150元/吨。 基本面分析:供应端,个别煤矿因事故和检修、产量有所下 滑,另有部分煤矿受库存及亏损压力有减产行为,但主产地煤矿 多数维持正常生产,焦煤产量整体高位维稳。进口方面,甘其毛 都口岸日均通关增加112车,维持高位;澳媒价格坚挺,进口性价 比暂无。需求端,焦炭产量仍维持高位,但提降周期内焦企原料 补库积极性下降,焦煤上游库存压力加剧,流拍现象仍未好转。 总体上,当前焦煤市场供需仍趋宽松。 投资策略:单边:逢高做空与区间操作相结合 跨期套利: 观望为主 焦化利润:观望为主 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名:丛燕飞 期货从业资格号:F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 邮箱:congyanfei@nzfco.com 电话:400-822- ...
棕榈油价格区间震荡,高抛低吸
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 12:02
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short-term palm oil prices will fluctuate within a range, and a high-sell and low-buy strategy should be maintained while keeping an eye on international biodiesel policies, high-frequency supply and demand data, and domestic inventory changes [2][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Palm Oil Price Market Review - Reviewed the palm oil average price trend [4] 2. Supply Situation Analysis - Analyzed China's palm oil import data [6] 3. Demand Situation Analysis - Analyzed the palm oil transaction average price and trading volume statistics [8][9] 4. Cost and Profit Analysis - Analyzed the palm oil import cost and profit [11] 5. Market Outlook - In March, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 213,000 tons to 2 million tons compared to February, a 38% decrease from the same period last year. The total palm oil production in March increased by 7% year-on-year to 4.8 million tons, with crude palm oil (CPO) production increasing by 289,000 tons to 4.4 million tons and palm kernel oil (PKO) production increasing by 26,000 tons to 417,000 tons [13] - Malaysia's latest palm oil production growth rate decreased month-on-month, while its export growth rate increased month-on-month, which supports palm oil prices [13][14] - In the domestic market, the spot price spread between soybean oil and palm oil has been inverted. There is a shortage of spot goods in some markets with few quotes, and downstream buyers are making purchases based on rigid demand, resulting in a slight increase in trading volume [14]
避险情绪再起,高位震荡偏多
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 11:56
美联储主席鲍威尔在美联储国际金融司成立 75 周年活动上发 表讲话。在市场高度关注美联储利率政策走向之际,鲍威尔并未在 讲话中就美国经济与未来利率前景发表看法。美国零售巨头塔吉特 第一季度销售大幅下滑 2.8%至 238.5 亿美元,可比销售下降 3.8%。 对关税和经济前景担忧下,公司预计 2025 财年销售额将出现低个 位数下滑,而此前预测为增长 1%。关税政策不确定性之际,美国经 济活动放缓,通胀趋于降温。美国 4 月 PPI 环比意外下跌 0.5%,其 中服务价格下降 0.7%,创 2009 年以来最大单月跌幅。零售销售环 比仅增长 0.1%,明显低于 3 月 1.7%的强劲增幅。制造业产值环比 下降 0.4%,出现六个月来的首次下降。美国一季度 GDP 年化季环 比初值录得-0.3%,低于市场预期的 0.3%,较上季度的 2.4%大幅回 落,为 2022 年一季度以来首次转负。从美国经济数据来看,下行 压力增长增加,但依然保持一定的韧性。 避险情绪再起,高位震荡偏多 摘 要: 当地时间 6 月 1 日,特朗普政府的官员们暗示,特朗普不打算 延长暂停部分高额"对等关税"的 90 天期限。乌克兰 6 月 ...
PTA:上行空间或受限
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 11:45
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward space of PTA may be limited. At the beginning of the month, the PTA supply - demand remained tight, but the de - stocking amplitude narrowed. Attention should be paid to the polyester production cut amplitude. In late June, as PTA maintenance devices restart and new devices are expected to be put into production, coupled with the possible expansion of the production cut amplitude due to increasing pressure on downstream polyester, the PTA supply - demand will gradually weaken, and the basis may be under pressure at that time. It is not recommended to chase long at high positions [2][7][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The PTA09 contract was recommended to go long at low positions. The weekly opening price of the 09 contract was 4706, the highest was 4830, the lowest was 4652, and the closing price was 4700, with a weekly decline of 16 or 0.17% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 Maintenance Supports PXN to be Strong - In terms of PX capacity, the commissioning of new domestic PX capacity in 2024 is gradually coming to an end. There is only a plan to put into operation a new 3 - million - ton capacity of Yulongdao in 2024, and there is no expectation of new project commissioning in 2025. From January to April 2025, the domestic PX output was 12.28 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; from January to March 2025, the domestic PX imports were 2.248 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. - In May, the PX operation rate in Asia and China was low. The average monthly load of domestic PX in May increased by 3.7% to 77.2%, while that of Asian PX decreased by 0.3% to 69.5%. Although the previously maintained devices gradually restarted in May, due to poor profitability, the unplanned maintenance of PX devices increased, and the maintenance plans of some downstream PTA devices were postponed. The PX supply - demand recovered better than expected, and inventory was reduced. - In June, PX device maintenance in Asia was also relatively concentrated, but with the repair of processing margins, the maintenance of some devices might be postponed. It is expected that the domestic PX supply will increase in June. Although the maintained PX devices will gradually resume operation in June, with the increase in PTA supply, the PX supply - demand is still expected to be tight. Currently, there is a seesaw effect between PX and PTA supply - demand. Attention should be paid to the PTA device maintenance plan and the implementation of PX device maintenance [3][4] 2.2 PTA Supply Pressure May Increase in Late June - From January to April 2025, the domestic PTA output was 23.69 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In April, the average monthly load of PTA was around 77.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared with January. The PTA load increased to 79.3%, which was at a neutral level in the same period over the years. The PTA load was at a low level in May, and the maintenance volume was higher than that in April. - In June, there are expectations of device maintenance for Taihua 1, Fuhai Chuang, Jiaxing Petrochemical, Dongying William, etc. Devices such as 2% of Jiayue Energy, Fengming 3, and Yisheng Dahua are planned to restart, and there is an expectation of new device commissioning for Honggang Petrochemical. Other devices will maintain reduced loads or continue maintenance. The loss of conventional device maintenance in June is only 427,000 tons, significantly lower than the average maintenance loss of over 650,000 tons from April to May. Coupled with the commissioning of Honggang Phase III in early June, it is expected that the average monthly load of PTA in June will increase. - At the beginning of the month, the PTA supply - demand remained tight, but the de - stocking amplitude narrowed. Attention should be paid to the polyester production cut amplitude. In late June, as PTA maintenance devices restart and new devices are expected to be put into production, coupled with the possible expansion of the production cut amplitude due to increasing pressure on downstream polyester, the PTA supply - demand will gradually weaken, and the basis may be under pressure at that time [7] 2.3 The Sustainability of Polyester Demand Remains to be Observed - From January to April 2025, the domestic polyester output was 25.41 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. - In May, the load of weaving and texturing rebounded beyond expectations. Due to the improvement of orders at the end of April, there was a phenomenon of rush - to - export. After the May Day holiday, the loads of weaving and polyester did not decline but increased. Then on May 12th, the China - US talks achieved positive progress, and both sides reduced tariffs. The orders exported to the US resumed shipment, the inventory of grey fabrics was significantly reduced, and the market sentiment improved greatly. With the rapid rebound of raw material prices, downstream enterprises also began to conduct concentrated rigid - demand and speculative raw material stocking, and the inventory of filament yarn decreased significantly. - However, since late May, due to the short - term rapid increase in the raw material end, the negative feedback of polyester production cuts has begun to appear. Large filament yarn manufacturers have started production cut plans, and the polyester load has declined from a high level. In terms of future expectations, the short - term weaving load is expected to remain stable, and there is a possibility of a decline in the load in mid - to - late June. Attention should be paid to the tariff changes under the game between the US Trade Court and Trump. For the polyester load, continue to pay attention to the implementation of production cuts [8] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - At the beginning of the month, the PTA supply - demand remained tight, but the de - stocking amplitude narrowed. Attention should be paid to the polyester production cut amplitude. In late June, as PTA maintenance devices restart and new devices are expected to be put into production, coupled with the possible expansion of the production cut amplitude due to increasing pressure on downstream polyester, the PTA supply - demand will gradually weaken, and the basis may be under pressure at that time [12]
美国农业部今日早评-20250603
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 05:56
【短评-橡胶】泰国原料胶水价格61.25泰铢/公斤,杯胶价 格49.5泰铢/公斤;云南胶水制全乳12700价格元/吨,制浓乳 12900价格元/吨;海南胶水制全乳价格12900元/吨,制浓乳胶 价格13900元/吨;综合来看,前4个月,越南天然橡胶、混合胶 合计出口45万吨,较去年的47.8万吨同比下降5.9%;合计出口 中国32.6万吨,较去年的32.5万吨同比微增0.3%。评:国内现 货价格持续走低,带动原料价格整体下滑,成本支撑力度明显 减弱。6月泰国开割,海外天然橡胶主要产区存加快上量预期, 消费端看,配套消费良好,出口和替换均偏弱,下游轮胎成品 库存和开工均指向弱势。震荡偏弱对待。 投资咨询中心 2025年06月03日 研究员 姓名:师秀明 邮箱:shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号:F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0010784 姓名:曹宝琴 邮箱:caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号:F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0012851 姓名:蒯三可 邮箱:kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号:F3040522 期货投资咨 ...
证券时报:今日早评-20250530
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 01:43
今 日 早 评 重点品种: 期货从业资格号:F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0010784 姓名:曹宝琴 邮箱:caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号:F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0012851 姓名:蒯三可 邮箱:kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号:F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 姓名:丛燕飞 邮箱:congyanfei@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号:F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015666 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1406元/吨,缓慢下降 趋势;纯碱周产量68.51万吨,环比+3.21%;纯碱厂家总库存 162.43万吨,环比下降3.13%;浮法玻璃开工率76.01%,周度 +0.68%;全国浮法玻璃均价1233元/吨,环比上日-1元/吨;全 国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6766.2万重箱,环比下降0.16%。 评:浮法玻璃开工较稳,库存小幅下降,下游仍维持刚需,逢 低采买为主。国内纯碱市场走势弱稳,下游企业采购谨慎,低 价按需为主。预计纯碱09合约短期震荡运行,上方压力1200一 线 ...
宁证期货今日早评-20250529
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 02:10
今 日 早 评 重点品种: 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1406元/吨,缓慢下降 趋势;纯碱开工80.71%,装置运行稳定;纯碱厂家总库存 167.68万吨,环比下降2.06%;浮法玻璃开工率75.24%,周度- 0.22%;全国浮法玻璃均价1233元/吨,环比上日-1元/吨;全国 浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6776.9万重箱,环比下降0.46%。评: 浮法玻璃开工较稳,库存小幅下降,华东市场企业多稳价为 主,加工厂订单未有明显改善,多维持刚需。国内纯碱市场走 势疲软,成交重心下移,企业新订单接收一般,整体需求不温 不火,按需采购为主。预计纯碱09合约短期震荡运行,上方压 力1220一线,建议观望。 【短评-原油】当地时间28日,欧佩克+召开了线上会议, 据彭博社最新消息,根据会后发布的声明,欧佩克+已同意将 2025年的石油产量水平作为2027年的基准。欧佩克+还将于本周 六举行另一轮谈判,届时可能决定7月是否增产;据央视新闻消 息,当地时间28日,美国总统特朗普表示,他已警告以色列暂 勿攻击伊朗,以便美国政府有更多时间推动与伊朗达成新的核 协议。特朗普说,他认为伊朗希望达成协议,这将"挽救许多 生命", ...