今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计全国110家洗煤厂样本：开工率 57.36%较上期降3.23%；日均产量47.79万吨减3.67万吨；原煤 库存336.13万吨增8.72万吨；精煤库存251.47万吨增6.41万 吨。评：炼焦煤市场延续偏弱下行，煤焦基本面变化不大，依 然是偏弱的格局，铁水见顶回落，钢材淡季逐步到来，成材消 费会季节性走弱，后续或形成负反馈继续打压原料价格，但焦 煤绝对价格已跌至近年来最低水平，部分煤矿已陷入亏损，继 续下跌空间有限，后续下跌斜率或将放缓，继续缓慢探底。 【短评-原油】据央视新闻消息，当地时间6月12日，美国 总统特朗普表示，以色列对伊朗的袭击"很有可能发生"，但 他不会称之为"迫在眉睫的袭击"。 特朗普表示，他更倾向于 避免与伊朗发生冲突，并就其核计划达成和平解决方案；美国 驻以色列大使赫卡比12日在接受媒体采访时表示，如果没有美 国的批准，以色列不太可能攻击伊朗；伊朗高级官员:美国人员 撤离并不是(受到)威胁的信号。评：市场在等待伊朗和美国6月 15日恢复谈判。整体上，地缘政治，原油低库存及美国产量增 速下降对短期油价有支撑。长期关注OPEC+产 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】据法新社报道，美国及伊朗双方6月11日均 就美伊核谈判作出最新表态。美国总统特朗普在当日播出的采 访中表示，他对与伊朗达成核协议"信心减弱"。与此同时， 伊朗6月11日则表示，若谈判失败，美伊之间爆发冲突，伊朗将 以美国在中东地区的军事基地作为目标；美国能源信息署数据 显示；美国商业原油库存量4.32415亿桶，比前一周下降364.4 万桶；美国汽油库存总量2.29804亿桶，比前一周增长150.4万 桶；美国原油日均产量1342.8万桶，比前周日均产量增加2万 桶。评：美国和伊朗之间的紧张局势升级推动隔夜原油大涨。 整体上，地缘政治，原油低库存及美国产量增速下降对短期油 价有支撑。长期关注OPEC+产量落实情况。短期低位短多思路。 【短评-黄金】美国和伊拉克消息人士周三表示，美国正准 备撤离驻伊拉克大使馆部分人员，并将允许中东各军事基地的 军人家属离开，因该地区安全风险加剧。评：地缘风险增加， 原油上涨，避险情绪助推黄金上涨，但是美联储降息预期增 加，降息预期利多白银大于利多黄金，资金关注点转为白银。 黄金、白银或走分化行情，黄金中期高位震荡略偏多思路对 待。关注关 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】世界银行周二将2025年全球经济增长预测下 调至2.3%，比前次预测下调0.4%。世界银行认为，更高的关税 和不确定加剧对几乎所有的经济体都构成了"重大阻力"。 EIA6月份《短期能源展望》：预计今年美国原油日均产量将略 高于1340万桶，2026年日均产量将略低于1340万桶；预计今年 全球石油日需求量将增长80万桶，2026年将增长110万桶，预计 今年全球石油日产量将增加160万桶，2026年将增加80万桶；美 国石油学会数据显示，截止2025年6月6日当周，美国商业原油 库存减少37万桶；同期美国汽油库存增加296.9万桶，今年至 今，美国原油库存累计增加了1800万桶以上。评：世界银行下 调全球经济预测抑制了油价涨势，国际油价从两个月以来最高 点适度回落。EIA上调了2025年原油市场过剩预期，其数据显示 今年前五个月全球石油库存增加，并将在预测期内继续增长,承 压原油市场。整体上，供应过剩施压原油市场。关注美伊谈判 和俄乌谈判进展情况，中美谈判进展。阶段性偏高估沽空。 【短评-焦炭】6月10日，市场价格偏弱运行，上周五河 北、山东主流钢厂针对焦炭价格价格下 ...

今 日 早 评 温馨提示： 根据《上海期货交易所交易规则》等有关规定，现将铸造 铝合金期货合约上市挂牌基准价通知如下： AD2511、AD2512、AD2601、AD2602、AD2603、AD2604、 AD2605合约的挂牌基准价为18365元/吨。 重点品种： 【短评-原油】路透社调查发现，5月OPEC原油产量较4月增 加15万桶/日，达到2675万桶/日，但低于计划的增产幅度，在 OPEC+协议中，阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿 联酋这五个OPEC成员国计划在5月增产31万桶/日，但实际仅增 产18万桶/日；伊朗外交部发言人：下一轮与美国的核谈判预计 将于周日在阿曼举行。6月9日，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表 示，伊朗已将铀浓缩排除在谈判议题之外；中美经贸磋商机制 首次会议在英国伦敦开始举行。评：美伊谈判和俄乌谈判进展 情况，OPEC+增产量偏少，美国关税政策影响阶段性原油走势。 短期低库存对油价存在支撑。长期需持续跟踪OPEC+增产落实情 况。短期短线参与。 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-19元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利5元 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, steel prices adjusted within a narrow range, with the average national rebar price rising by 1 yuan/ton week-on-week. After the Dragon Boat Festival, there was some restocking sentiment in the market. However, due to the decline in coking coal and coke, which dragged down finished products, market quotes adjusted weakly. Mid-week, raw materials stabilized and rebounded under the influence of stricter safety inspections. With few fundamental contradictions in building materials, prices fluctuated and stabilized [2][4]. - Considering the unchanged pattern of weak supply and demand in the steel market during the off-season, the rebound height of steel prices may be limited. Although the price rebounded from a low this week, the weekly line failed to effectively return above the 3000 mark, and the counterattack strength of long - position funds was insufficient, failing to reverse the downward trend for the time being [27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices adjusted within a narrow range this week, and the average national rebar price rose by 1 yuan/ton week-on-week. After the Dragon Boat Festival, restocking sentiment emerged, but the decline in coking coal and coke dragged down finished products, leading to a weak adjustment in market quotes. Mid - week, raw materials stabilized and rebounded due to stricter safety inspections, and prices fluctuated and stabilized with few fundamental contradictions in building materials [2][4]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On June 6, the central bank conducted a 1000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months (91 days) [6]. - Five departments including the Ministry of Commerce organized the 2025 new energy vehicle campaign in rural areas [6]. - Recently, Zhang Yuzhuo, the director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, conducted intensive research on enterprises in industries such as energy, steel, metal minerals, and energy conservation and environmental protection [6]. - US President Trump announced to raise the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from 00:01 on June 4, 2025, Eastern Time. The steel and aluminum tariffs on imports from the UK will remain at 25% [6]. - From May 26 to June 1, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 13.08 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.094 million tons [6]. - In late May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 23 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons (a 4.9% decrease in daily output week - on - week); 21.04 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.913 million tons (a 3.5% decrease in daily output week - on - week); and 23.94 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.177 million tons (a 2.5% increase in daily output week - on - week) [6]. - In late May 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.05 million tons (6.4% decrease) from the previous ten - day period [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 106,100 tons, higher than last week's 101,700 tons. Due to the upcoming heavy rainfall in the South and the college entrance examination, downstream construction plans slowed down, and procurement enthusiasm was poor [10]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The recent steel price has shown a phased rebound under the influence of the significant fluctuations in coking coal futures. Considering the unchanged pattern of weak supply and demand in the off - season steel market, the rebound height of steel prices may be limited. The reference operating range is 2860 - 3020 [27]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, combine shorting at high prices with range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for steel profits, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][27].

Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have not improved significantly, and the upside of the futures market is limited [1]. - Gold may experience a short - term correction, with a mid - term high - level oscillation pattern, and the divergence between gold and silver may occur [1]. - Methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 2250 level [3]. - Soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 1190 level [4]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term under the current tight - balance supply - demand situation [5]. - The short - term supply - demand pattern of live pigs is supply - strong and demand - weak, and 09 - 01 contract reverse spread and hedging sales are recommended [6]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended [6]. - Domestic soybeans are expected to maintain a slightly oscillating and strengthening trend in the short term [7]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate widely with a slightly bullish trend in the medium term [7]. - Silver may face short - term correction pressure and then oscillate with a slightly bullish trend [8]. - PVC is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 4750 level for the 09 contract [8]. - Crude oil prices are supported in the short term, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. - Rubber is expected to oscillate at a relatively low level in the short term [10]. - PTA supply - demand is turning weaker, and it is recommended to wait and see for the right time when crude oil weakens [11]. 3. Summaries by Product Coking Coal - Independent coking enterprises' capacity utilization is 75.36% (- 0.30%), coke daily output is 66.52 (- 0.27), coke inventory is 127.01 (+ 15.63), coking coal inventory is 818.92 (- 27.41), and coking coal available days are 9.3 (- 0.27 days) [1]. - Coking enterprises are in a state of small profit or slight loss, and the market has started the third round of price cuts [1]. Gold - Fed official's remarks reduce the expectation of Fed rate cuts, the US dollar index rebounds, and gold experiences a short - term correction [1]. Methanol - The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2315 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), port inventory is 58.1 tons (+ 5.8 tons), production enterprise inventory is 37.05 tons (+ 1.55 tons), and orders to be delivered are 26.22 tons (+ 1.23 tons) [3]. - Methanol operating rate is 88.14% (+ 0.88%), and downstream capacity utilization is 72.96% (+ 1.83%) [3]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash is 1375 yuan/ton (+ 3 yuan/ton), weekly output is 70.41 tons (+ 2.77%), and manufacturer inventory is 162.7 tons (+ 0.17%) [4]. - Float glass operating rate is 75.68% (- 0.34%), average price is 1206 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan/ton), and inventory is 6975.4 million heavy - boxes (+ 3.09%) [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports is 14400.31 tons (- 69.27 tons), and daily port clearance volume is 329.06 tons (- 9.72 tons) [5]. - Overseas supply growth is lower than expected, and some mines may increase shipments at the end of the fiscal or quarterly period [5]. Live Pigs - As of June 6, the average slaughter weight is 124.12 kg (- 0.01 kg), and the weekly slaughter operating rate is 27.01% (- 0.76%) [6]. - The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is 39.5 yuan/head (+ 3.39 yuan/head), and the profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 94.98 yuan/head (+ 3.21 yuan/head) [6]. Palm Oil - From June 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.09% [6]. - The domestic price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is more inverted, and the spot basis is stable with a downward trend [6]. Soybeans - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean sales volume has reached 64% of the expected output, and for the next year, producers have pre - sold 10.8% of the expected output [7]. - Domestic soybeans are affected by tight supply and weak demand, with a slightly oscillating and strengthening trend [7]. Treasury Bonds - From January to April, the added value of industrial SMEs above designated size increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the operating income reached 25.8 trillion yuan [7]. - The bond market may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Silver - In May, the non - farm payrolls increased by 13.9 million, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [8]. - The short - term bullish sentiment for silver has weakened [8]. PVC - The capacity utilization rate is 80.72% (+ 2.53%), and social inventory is 58.88 tons (- 1.48%) [8]. - The average gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC producers is - 426 yuan/ton (+ 121 yuan/ton), and that of ethylene - based producers is - 520 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [8]. Crude Oil - As of June 6, the number of US oil drilling platforms decreased by 19 to 442 [9]. - Geopolitical factors and low inventory support oil prices in the short term [9]. Rubber - Supply is expected to increase, and demand shows no signs of improvement [10]. - Rubber has experienced three consecutive rounds of inventory reduction [10]. PTA - PX CFR is reported at 825 US dollars/ton, and the PX - N spread is 262 US dollars/ton [11]. - The PTA industry load is rising, and polyester inventory remains high [11].

邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦炭】河北天津等地钢厂针对焦炭价格下调进行了 提降，幅度湿熄焦炭下调70元/吨、干熄焦炭下调75元/吨。此 次幅度是基于湿熄50元/吨，干熄55元/吨的基础上，增加了先 前预计下调的20元基价得来。评：预计6日将顺利落地，焦企利 润受损，预计多数将达盈亏平衡线。原料煤保持小幅下降，相 较之前降幅缩小，下游钢厂采购情绪偏差。预计短期有望止 跌，中期弱势尚未逆转，关注反弹做空机会，获利可适时止 盈，注意仓位管理。 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1372元/吨，环比上 日-6元/吨；纯碱周产量70.41万吨，环比+2.77%；纯碱厂家总 库存162.7万吨，环比上升0.17%；浮法玻璃开工率75.68%，周 度-0.34%；全国浮法玻璃均价1209元/吨，环比上日-2元/吨； 全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6975.4万重箱， ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍 生制品的关税从25%提高至50%，该关税政策自美国东部时间 2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。美国从英国进口的钢铝关 税仍将维持在25%。评：避险情绪再度增加，利多黄金，但是美 元指数大幅反弹，有所抵消。地缘政治和关税博弈变数增加， 避险需求增加，黄金短期偏多。黄金中期依然高位震荡对待， 关注关税矛盾是否进一步激化。 【短评-橡胶】泰国胶水大跌，下跌4.75泰铢/公斤至56.5 泰铢/公斤；版纳原料下跌，制干胶胶水下跌0.1-0.2元/公斤至 12.5-12.6元/公斤，制浓乳胶水下跌0.1元/公斤至12.8-12.9元 /公斤；海南原料持稳。割胶工作还未完全恢复，原料产出偏 紧，国营胶水收购价为13900元/吨，民营胶水收购价为14900- 15300元/吨；截至2025年5月29日，中国半钢胎样本企业产能利 用率为72.51%，环比-1.23个百分点，同比-7.58个百分点；中 国全钢胎样本企业产能利用率为60.80%，环比-1.29个百分点， 同比-4.40个百分点。评：国内现货价格持续走低，带动原料价 格整体下滑 ...

摘 要： 供需关系：当前浮法玻璃企业利润不佳，本周有产线存放水预 期，暂无点火及出玻璃的情况下，周度产量预计下降。浮法玻璃终端 需求仍偏弱，下游深加工企业订单偏弱，浮法玻璃企业库存小幅下降。 预计玻璃价格近期震荡偏弱，09合约上方压力1000一线。建议短线高 抛低吸，注意止损。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：蒯三可 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货从业资格号：F03040522 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 风险提示：下游深加工企业订单回升超预期缓慢 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 企业库存较稳，需求仍偏弱 证监许可【2011】1775 号 期货投资咨询从业证号：Z0015369 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 电话：025-52865121 | 第1章 | 行情回顾 | | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第2章 | 价格影响因素分析 | | 5 | | 第3章 | 行情展 ...

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply - demand relationship of soda ash is expected to be loose. The price of soda ash is predicted to be weak with fluctuations in the near term. The upper pressure level for the 09 contract is 1235. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22]. 3) Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The domestic soda ash market weakened steadily, with prices declining slightly. There was a lack of positive support in the market, and the futures price adjusted at a low level. At the beginning of the week, some enterprises lowered prices due to increased supply. Towards the weekend, the news of Alxa's maintenance eased the industry sentiment, and the market was in a cautious wait - and - see mode [8]. - The weekly domestic soda ash production was 685,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,200 tons or 3.19%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 78.57%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.6243 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.13%. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises were less than 9 days, showing a downward trend [8]. Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 Supply - demand Analysis - **Supply Side Analysis - Supply Expected to Increase Slightly**: As of May 29, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 78.57%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The expected capacity utilization rate this week is over 79%. The theoretical profit of the soda ash by the dual - ton soda ash method was 215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was 67.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.75% [11]. - **Demand Side Analysis - Downstream Demand of Soda Ash Expected to be Weakly Stable**: As of May 29, there were 102 in - production kilns for photovoltaic glass, with a daily melting volume of 98,780 tons. The industry inventory days increased by 0.58 days. There were no new kiln investment or cold - repair plans this week, and the supply is expected to remain stable. The production of float glass was 1.1041 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. Due to the expected water storage of production lines, the weekly output is expected to decline [15]. - **Inventory Analysis - Inventory of Soda Ash Enterprises Expected to Remain High**: As of May 29, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6243 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52,500 tons or 3.13%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 818,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 806,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons [18]. 2.2 Position Analysis As of May 30, the long positions of the top 20 members in the soda ash futures were 994,153, a decrease of 29,228, and the short positions were 1,238,089, a decrease of 35,074. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [20]. Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current production of soda ash is stable at a high level with average profit, and the production is expected to increase slightly this week. The downstream demand of soda ash is expected to be weakly stable. The production of float glass is expected to decline, while the supply of photovoltaic glass remains stable, and the inventory continues to rise. Under the expected loose supply - demand situation, it is difficult for the high - level inventory of soda ash enterprises to continue to decline [22]. - The price of soda ash is expected to be weak with fluctuations in the near term. The upper pressure level for the 09 contract is 1235. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short - term and pay attention to stop - loss [2][22].