Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of gold and silver are showing strong upward trends. Trump's attempt to dismiss a Federal Reserve governor and challenge the Fed's independence has made the market uneasy. The USGS's proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list has raised concerns about silver import tariff risks. Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting and the disappointing July non - farm payrolls data have increased the expectation of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial to precious metals. However, the split within the Fed, the rebound of US inflation data in July, and the easing of geopolitical risks have restricted the upward space of gold to some extent. The overall trade environment has deteriorated, and the long - term drivers of gold still have support. Currently, gold and silver may show a relatively strong trend as the interest rate cut approaches and due to Trump's interference in the Fed's independence, and the market is focusing on this week's non - farm payrolls data [4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 801.58 and 803.38 respectively, with price increases of 1.02 and 1.18, and price increase rates of 0.13% and 0.15%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9836.00 and 9855.00 respectively, with price increases of 61.00 and 57.00, and price increase rates of 0.62% and 0.58% [2] - **Position and Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of沪金2510 are 140,691 and 313,792, and those of沪金2512 are 178,201 and 132,324. The positions and trading volumes of沪银2510 are 294,815 and 884,674, and those of沪银2512 are 322,354 and 301,127 [2] - **Spot Premium**: The spot premiums of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 7.10 and - 8.90, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 84.00 and - 103.00 [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The price of Shanghai Gold T + D is 794.48, with a price increase of 12.78 and a price increase rate of 1.63%. The price of London gold is 797.53, with a price increase of 7.36 and a price increase rate of 0.93%. The price of London silver is 40.67, with a price increase of 0.98 and a price increase rate of 2.48%. The price of Shanghai Silver T + D is 9752.00, with a price increase of 387.00 and a price increase rate of 4.13% [2] - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between沪金2512 and沪金2510 is 1.80 (previous value: 1.64), the price spread between沪银2512 and沪银2510 is 19 (previous value: 23), the gold - to - silver ratio (spot) is 81.47 (previous value: 83.47), the ratio of Shanghai gold to London gold is 7.11 (previous value: 7.05), and the ratio of Shanghai silver to London silver is 7.46 (previous value: 7.34) [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold increased by 120 kg to 39,744 kg, the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver increased by 11,231 kg to 1,207,227 kg, the COMEX gold inventory increased by 161,216.26 ounces to 38,925,853 ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory increased by 1,037,585 ounces to 518,232,360 ounces [2] Related Market Indicators - **Changes**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.19% to 97.6793, the S&P index decreased by 0.64% to 6460.26, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.24% to 4.23, the Brent crude oil price increased by 0.01% to 68.16, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate increased by 0.02% to 7.1221 [2] Derivatives - **Changes**: The position of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1 ton to 44,315 tons, the position of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 1 ton to 44,315 tons, the net position of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 481 to 33,486, and the net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 1451 to 32,895 [2] Macroeconomic News - **US News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Trump may declare a national housing emergency this fall. The nominee for the Fed governor, Milan, is likely to take office before the September Fed meeting [3] - **European News**: ECB President Lagarde said that the 2% inflation target has been achieved. The acting governor of the Slovenian central bank said that the ECB's "easing cycle has ended". The final value of the euro - zone manufacturing PMI in August rose to a three - year high of 50.7, and the euro - zone unemployment rate in July dropped to 6.2%, tying the historical low set in November 2024 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Market Overview**: The A - share market showed a strong oscillation on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.46% to 3875.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.29%. The trading volume in the market was 2.78 trillion yuan. The non - ferrous industry strengthened across the board, and gold stocks soared. The CPO giants led the AI hardware segment to strengthen again, while the satellite Internet concept weakened and the large - finance sector declined generally [1]. - **Key Products Analysis** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver showed a strong upward trend. Factors such as Trump's attempt to interfere with the Fed, the proposed inclusion of silver in the key minerals list, and the increased expectation of a September interest rate cut were positive for precious metals. However, factors like the rebound of US inflation data and the easing of geopolitical risks restricted the upward space of gold. In the long - term, the continuous increase of gold reserves by the People's Bank of China provided support for gold [2]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September increases the attractiveness of RMB assets. The market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but sector rotation is accelerating [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment and has high volatility. The supply is increasing, and the demand for lithium in cathode materials is also rising. The inventory situation is complex, with upstream de - stocking and downstream restocking. There is a risk of correction after the previous rapid increase, but if the inventory starts to decline, the lithium price may rise [4]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily Main News Concerns - **International News**: Fed理事提名人米兰很可能在9月美联储会议前就职，几位美联储主席人选也有望担任理事 [6]. - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping stated at the "Shanghai Cooperation Organization +" meeting that China is willing to jointly build an AI application cooperation center with all parties to share the dividends of AI development [7]. - **Industry News**: In the first half of this year, the total net profit attributable to the parent company of A - share listed companies was 2.99 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. Nearly 77% of the stocks achieved profitability, and the proportion of stocks with a year - on - year positive growth in net profit attributable to the parent company was nearly 46%. Wanchen Group had a 504 - fold increase in performance in the first half of the year [8]. b. Overseas Market Daily Returns | Variety | Unit | 8/31 | 9/1 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FTSE China A50 Futures | Points | 14,965.58 | 14,904.15 | - 61.43 | - 0.41% | | London Gold Spot | US dollars/ounce | 3,447.57 | 3,478.96 | 31.39 | 0.91% | | London Silver | US dollars/ounce | 39.67 | 40.65 | 0.98 | 2.47% | [9] c. Morning Comments on Major Products - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index rose in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gain and the non - bank financial sector leading the decline. The trading volume was 2.78 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable situation, but sector rotation needs attention [3][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond falling to 1.77%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan. The Fed's possible interest rate cut and the domestic economic situation affect the bond market, and the stock - bond seesaw effect continues [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.1% at night. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine affect oil exports, and OPEC and its allies will discuss production policies. The market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.68% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory in coastal areas increased. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber had a narrow - range oscillation on Monday. The price is mainly supported by the supply side, but the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand, and the inventory is slowly being digested. It remains to be seen whether the futures can drive the spot price to stop falling [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures mainly declined, and soda ash futures continued to be weak. Both are in a process of inventory digestion, and the market focuses on supply - side contraction and future consumption [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are strongly bullish. Multiple factors affect the price, and the market focuses on this week's non - farm payrolls data [2][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the downstream demand has both positive and negative factors. The price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the supply - demand situation may turn to surplus. The price may fluctuate weakly within a range [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is increasing, and the demand is also rising. There is a risk of correction, but if the inventory decreases, the price may rise [4][21]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by steel mills' production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the inventory is being depleted. The market expects an increase in shipments in the second half of the year. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, and the inventory is accumulating. The export situation is complex, and the market has a weak supply - demand balance. The short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are in a high - level oscillation. The high - level iron - water production boosts the demand, but factors such as inventory changes and price cut expectations put pressure on the prices [25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meals**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meals oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean production outlook is optimistic, but the decrease in planting area and strong bio - fuel demand provide support. The domestic market is expected to oscillate narrowly [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats oscillated at night. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in August, and the export increased. The market is expected to continue to oscillate [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is entering a stock - building stage, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton decreased. The domestic cotton supply is relatively tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish [29]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rebounded, rising 1.53%. The market is mainly gambling on the off - season freight rate space. The price may be weakly volatile in September and may be supported at the end of September and early October [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polyolefin futures rebounded from the bottom and closed with a lower shadow yesterday. The spot market for linear LL was stable for Sinopec and partially stable for PetroChina, while the spot market for拉丝PP saw some price cuts of 50 yuan by Sinopec and stability from PetroChina. The market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. The overall spot price of polyolefins is weak at the beginning of the month. Whether the stop - fall of the futures market can drive the spot market to stop falling remains to be seen [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7270 yuan, 7276 yuan, and 7204 yuan respectively, with price drops of - 17 yuan, - 23 yuan, and - 26 yuan and declines of - 0.23%, - 0.32%, and - 0.36% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 324382, 11181, and 5021, and the open interests were 468822, 29742, and 9200, with changes of + 28457, + 294, and - 3708 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 6, 72, and - 66, compared to previous values of - 12, 69, and - 57 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6965 yuan, 6982 yuan, and 6871 yuan respectively, with price drops of - 9 yuan, - 13 yuan, and - 11 yuan and declines of - 0.13%, - 0.19%, and - 0.16% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 294958, 8448, and 1912, and the open interests were 558606, 43187, and 6477, with changes of + 30363, + 1920, and - 680 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 17, 111, and - 94, compared to previous values of - 21, 113, and - 92 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2387 yuan/ton, 6605 yuan/ton, 575 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2364 yuan/ton, 6575 yuan/ton, 574 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Mid - stream Spot Market**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7200 - 7700 yuan, 7150 - 7450 yuan, and 7400 - 7750 yuan respectively, compared to previous ranges of 7300 - 7700 yuan, 7200 - 7450 yuan, and 7400 - 7750 yuan. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6800 - 7000 yuan, 6800 - 7000 yuan, and 6800 - 7050 yuan respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6850 - 7000 yuan, 6800 - 7000 yuan, and 6800 - 7050 yuan [2]. News - On Monday (September 1st), the trading range of the WTI crude oil futures contract for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.66 - $64.88 per barrel. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.15 per barrel, up $0.67 or 0.99% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.12 - $68.36 [2].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and mixed downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range weak fluctuations as the supply - demand balance may tilt towards surplus, with rising smelting output and mixed downstream demand [2]. Summary by Related Content Copper - The night - session copper price closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Power industry shows positive growth, PV installation has a sharp year - on - year increase but future growth may slow. Automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 79,770 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of 220 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 9,884 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is - 86.27 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory is 158,900 tons with a daily increase of 950 tons [2]. Zinc - The night - session zinc price closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,150 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 85 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,833 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium is 14.98 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory is 56,500 tons with a daily decrease of 1,500 tons [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 20,660 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 30 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,620 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 4.72 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 481,050 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 123,220 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,140 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 15,439 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 183.35 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 209,544 tons with a daily decrease of 132 tons [2]. - **Lead**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 16,810 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 140 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 2,004 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 42.47 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 261,050 tons with a daily decrease of 1,450 tons [2]. - **Tin**: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 272,900 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 640 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price is 35,060 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 148.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 2,010 tons with a daily increase of 115 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, SC rose 0.21% on Friday night. Concerns about supply disruptions due to geopolitical factors and potential interest - rate cuts may boost oil demand. US crude and product inventories decreased last week, and subsequent attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3]. - For methanol, it fell 0.89% on Friday night. The domestic methanol overall plant operating rate decreased slightly, while the coal - to - olefins plant operating rate increased. Coastal methanol inventory is at a high level but the accumulation rate has slowed, and methanol is short - term bullish [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Crude Oil - Price changes: SC near - month rose 0.85% (4.0 yuan), SC next - month rose 0.73% (3.5 yuan), WTI near - month rose 0.72% (0.46 dollars), WTI next - month rose 0.69% (0.44 dollars), Brent near - month fell 0.22% (- 0.15 dollars), Brent next - month fell 0.28% (- 0.19 dollars) [2]. - Volume and open interest: SC near - month volume was 98,327, open interest was 31,938 with a decrease of 3904; SC next - month volume was 193,074, open interest was 294,186 with a decrease of 10952; WTI near - month volume was 106,713, open interest was 199,459 with an increase of 1571; WTI next - month volume was 105,363, open interest was 159,322 with a decrease of 49565; Brent near - month volume was 330,931, open interest was 607,763 with an increase of 19824 [2]. - Spreads: SC near - month - SC next - month spread was - 8.2 yuan (previous - 8.7 yuan), SC near - month - WTI near - month spread was 18.9 yuan (previous 18.2 yuan), SC near - month - Brent near - month spread was - 8.2 yuan (previous - 13.2 yuan), WTI near - month - WTI next - month spread was 3.92 dollars (previous 3.78 dollars), Brent near - month - Brent next - month spread was 0.66 dollars (previous 0.62 dollars) [2]. Methanol - Price changes: 01 contract fell 0.51% (- 12.0 yuan), 05 contract fell 0.46% (- 11.0 yuan), 09 contract fell 0.94% (- 21.0 yuan) [2]. - Volume and open interest: 01 contract volume was 419,697, open interest was 821,019 with an increase of 35186; 05 contract volume was 16,487, open interest was 95,958 with an increase of 3509; 09 contract volume was 26,306, open interest was 12,902 with a decrease of 16307 [2]. Spot Market Crude Oil - International market: OPEC basket crude price was 69.65 dollars (previous 69.75 dollars), Brent DTD was 67.51 dollars (previous 67.38 dollars), Russian ESPD was 64.60 dollars (previous 64.15 dollars), Oman was 69.81 dollars (previous 69.43 dollars), Dubai was 69.98 dollars (previous 69.45 dollars), Cinta was 65.46 dollars (previous 65.20 dollars) [2]. - Domestic market: Daqing was 64.90 dollars (previous 64.71 dollars), Shengli was 65.11 dollars (previous 65.10 dollars), China gasoline wholesale price index was 7,919 yuan/ton (previous 7,929 yuan/ton), China diesel wholesale price index was 6,811 yuan/ton (previous 6,820 yuan/ton), FOB naphtha (Singapore) was 63.75 dollars (previous 63.31 dollars), aviation kerosene ex - factory price was 5,605 yuan/ton (previous 5,676 yuan/ton) [2]. Methanol - Port price was 257 dollars, East China was 2245 yuan, North China was 2220 yuan, South China was 2247 yuan, with price decreases in all regions [2]. Comment and Strategy Crude Oil - Geopolitical factors such as India - US tariff issues and Russia - Ukraine attacks on energy infrastructure have raised supply concerns. Interest - rate cut expectations may stimulate oil demand. US crude and product inventories decreased last week, and OPEC's production increase situation should be monitored [3]. Methanol - As of August 28, the domestic methanol overall plant operating rate was 72.19% (down 0.82 percentage points month - on - month but up 0.81 percentage points year - on - year), and the coal - to - olefins plant operating rate was 82.24% (up 0.83 percentage points month - on - month). Coastal methanol inventory was 129.95 tons (up 5.1 tons from August 21, a 4.08% increase and 19.71% higher year - on - year), and the estimated import volume from August 29 to September 14 is 94.05 - 95 tons. Methanol is short - term bullish [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the combination of factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and mixed downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range weak fluctuations as short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profits are under pressure, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Downstream demand shows mixed trends: power industry has positive growth, photovoltaic rush - installation increased year - on - year but future growth may slow, automobile production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 79,440 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 185 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 9,902 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 80.26 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 157,950 tons with a daily increase of 1,850 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automobile production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,130 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 55 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,814 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 6.12 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 58,000 tons with a daily decrease of 2,025 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,765 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 30 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,619 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 2.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 481,150 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,450 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 1,590 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 15,421 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 174.22 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 209,676 tons with a daily increase of 456 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,840 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 150 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 1,991 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 41.07 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 262,500 tons with a daily decrease of 4,975 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 278,300 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 1,530 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 34,950 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 175.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 1,895 tons with a daily decrease of 30 tons [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - On Friday, polyolefins mainly declined. The spot market of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. Terminal stocking demand may gradually pick up in mid - to late August. International crude oil prices have fluctuated at low levels recently, which also has a certain impact on the short - term trend of chemicals. In the future, attention should be paid to the rhythm of the autumn stocking market after supply - demand digestion, the rhythm of spot production scheduling and maintenance, especially the short - term repair rhythm on the supply side. [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Prices**: For linear LL futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7287, 7299, and 7230 respectively, with price drops of - 71, - 63, and - 84 and declines of - 0.96%, - 0.86%, and - 1.15% compared to two days ago. For拉丝PP futures, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6974, 6995, and 6882 respectively, with price drops of - 46, - 38, and - 55 and declines of - 0.66%, - 0.54%, and - 0.79% compared to two days ago. [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of linear LL futures for January, May, and September contracts were 282715, 6342, and 12925 respectively, and the open interests were 440365, 29448, and 12908 respectively, with changes of 26798, 2196, and - 10361. The trading volumes of拉丝PP futures for January, May, and September contracts were 217926, 4683, and 9349 respectively, and the open interests were 528243, 41267, and 7157 respectively, with changes of 31778, 1008, and - 6409. [2] - **Spreads**: For linear LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 12, 69, and - 57 respectively, compared to previous values of - 4, 48, and - 44. For拉丝PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 21, 113, and - 92 respectively, compared to previous values of - 13, 96, and - 83. [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2365 yuan/ton, 6575 yuan/ton, 574 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, with previous values of 2376 yuan/ton, 6550 yuan/ton, 571 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6820 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton. [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of linear LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7700, 7200 - 7450, and 7400 - 7750 respectively, and the previous price ranges were 7300 - 7700, 7250 - 7450 (also 8100 - 8250 in North China), and 7400 - 7800. The current price ranges of拉丝PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6850 - 7000, 6800 - 7000, and 6800 - 7050 respectively, and the previous price ranges were 6900 - 7050, 6900 - 7000, and 6850 - 7100. [2] News - On Friday (August 29), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $64.01 per barrel, down $0.59 or 0.91% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.88 - $64.55. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.12 per barrel, down $0.50 or 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.9 - $68.39. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to a mix of factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and varying downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range and weak - side fluctuations as short - term supply - demand may tilt towards surplus [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Market situation: Night - session copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power industry has positive growth, PV rush - installations increased year - on - year but future growth may slow. Automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - Strategy: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Market situation: Night - session zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue rising. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2]. - Strategy: Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus, and zinc prices may have weak - side fluctuations within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Futures Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 79,180 | 140 | 9,756 | - 88.68 | 155,000 | - 975 | | Aluminum | 20,825 | - 40 | 2,604 | 5.15 | 478,075 | - 650 | | Zinc | 22,305 | - 75 | 2,764 | - 6.85 | 65,525 | - 2,550 | | Nickel | 121,550 | - 2,050 | 15,131 | - 184.70 | 209,148 | - 600 | | Lead | 16,865 | - 155 | 1,985 | - 41.11 | 271,550 | - 1,500 | | Tin | 271,320 | - 3,370 | 34,510 | 167.00 | 1,780 | - 5 | [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, sc night session rose 1.16%. A fire occurred at Russia's new Shakhtinsk refinery after a Ukrainian drone attack, and it has been burning for four days. The OPEC+ voluntary production - cut eight - nation group will hold a meeting on September 7 and may approve further production increases. After Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in the September meeting, investors' risk appetite increased. Follow - up attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3]. - For methanol, the night session was in a sideways consolidation. Imported cargoes concentrated on unloading at ports, especially in South China, leading to a significant accumulation of coastal methanol inventories. As of August 21, coastal methanol inventories reached 124.85 tons, up 10.8 tons from August 14, a 9.47% increase and a 28.29% year - on - year increase. The short - term trend of methanol is mainly bullish [3]. Summary by Related Content Futures Market Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: SC near - month decreased by 0.29% to 485.6 yuan/barrel, SC next - month decreased by 0.14% to 492.9 yuan/barrel. WTI near - month rose 0.46% to 63.77 dollars/barrel, WTI next - month rose 0.43% to 63.34 dollars/barrel. Brent near - month rose 1.40% to 68.74 dollars/barrel, Brent next - month rose 1.40% to 68.20 dollars/barrel [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: SC near - month trading volume was 1,185, open interest was 4,061 with a decrease of 1,115. SC next - month trading volume was 102,824, open interest was 37,424 with an increase of 102 [2]. - **Spreads**: The current spread of SC near - month - SC next - month was - 7.3 yuan/barrel, compared with - 6.6 yuan/barrel previously [2]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: Methanol 01 contract rose 0.79% to 2424 yuan, 05 contract rose 0.76% to 2402 yuan, 09 contract rose 0.61% to 2308 yuan [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: 01 contract trading volume was 459,712, open interest was 675,269 with a decrease of 22,877. 05 contract trading volume was 14,401, open interest was 79,575 with an increase of 2,919 [2]. Spot Market Crude Oil - **International Market**: OPEC basket price rose from 70.01 dollars to 70.26 dollars, Brent DTD rose from 68.29 dollars to 68.48 dollars, etc. [2]. - **Domestic Market**: Daqing crude oil price rose from 64.46 dollars to 64.99 dollars, Shengli crude oil price rose from 65.09 dollars to 65.51 dollars [2]. Methanol - **Port Spot**: The port price in US dollars remained at 263, the East China price rose from 2317.5 yuan to 2322.5 yuan, the North China price remained at 2190 yuan, and the South China price rose from 2287 yuan to 2295 yuan [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [2][10]. - With the loosening of market liquidity, the price of treasury bond futures has stabilized, but beware of the suppression of the bond market sentiment by the stock - bond seesaw effect [11]. - The overall trend of precious metals may be strong under the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3][18]. - The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the interweaving of multiple factors [3][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns of the Day International News - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products starting from August 27, 2025 [4]. Domestic News - The Hong Kong Treasury Bureau Chief reminded the public to be cautious about stablecoins, which are positioned as payment tools with a lower cost compared to bank payments [6]. - Shanghai introduced a series of real - estate new policies, including relaxed purchase restrictions, increased housing provident fund loan limits, and adjusted mortgage interest rates and property tax policies [1][7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, London Gold, London Silver, etc. declined, while the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, etc. rose on August 25 compared to August 24 [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The domestic market has favorable factors such as loose liquidity, policy support, and easing external risks. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The price of treasury bond futures has stabilized with the loosening of market funds, but the strong equity market may suppress the bond market [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session rose. A Russian refinery was attacked, and OPEC+ may discuss further production increases in September. Pay attention to OPEC's production increase [12]. - **Methanol**: The coastal methanol inventory has increased significantly. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [13]. - **Rubber**: Affected by typhoons and the rainy season, the supply side provides support, while the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to stop falling and rebound [14]. - **Polyolefins**: The futures prices rebounded slightly. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand, and pay attention to the autumn restocking market [15][16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures stopped falling. Pay attention to the autumn consumption to help digest inventory [17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The expectation of interest rate cuts in September has increased, and the overall trend of precious metals may be strong [3][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the tight concentrate supply and mixed downstream demand [3][19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range due to the expected increase in smelting production and mixed downstream demand [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price is affected by sentiment. If the inventory starts to decline, the lithium price may rise further [21][22]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported, but the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The later trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [23]. - **Steel**: The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for the time being. The short - term adjustment is expected, and the later trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is in a wide - range oscillation due to the game between multiple factors [25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The short - term adjustment of domestic soybean meal is weak, but it is expected to be relatively strong in the long - term [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend of oils and fats is expected to be oscillating [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and international sugar markets are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [29]. - **Cotton**: The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating and bullish, but the upside space is limited [30]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The freight rate of the European line is in a downward trend, and the short - term is expected to continue the phased decline [31].