Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market shows a weak and volatile pattern. Supply - side factors indicate that the incident at Russian refineries is only a short - term disturbance, while South American production increases and the supply resilience of sanctioned countries strengthen the expectation of a loose supply. Demand - side factors are suppressed by the weakening of China's refining demand, the peak of global seasonal demand, and the slowdown of bio - fuel substitution. Without unexpected production cuts, oil prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 11, the SC main contract slightly declined by 0.08% to 489.4 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent rebounded by 1.03% and 0.59% respectively. The premium of domestic futures relative to foreign markets narrowed, with the SC - Brent spread narrowing from 1.87 to 1.43 dollars/barrel (a 23.53% decline) and the SC - WTI spread dropping from 4.84 to 4.14 dollars/barrel (a 14.46% decline). The SC near - month contract strengthened, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened to 9.8 yuan/barrel (a 13.95% increase) [2]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may lead to a local supply contraction, but strong South American production and the supply resilience of sanctioned countries (such as Iran and Venezuela) weaken the geopolitical premium, and medium - term supply pressure still exists [3]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: In early August, China's spot orders for gasoline and diesel decreased by 22.87% month - on - month, and transaction prices declined. UBS expects global oil demand to peak in August and then decline, and the delay of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy reduces the elasticity of diesel substitution demand in the next half - year [4]. - **Inventory - side Analysis**: UBS warns that future inventories may increase, and combined with the recent oil price correction and the spot discount structure, it shows that the market's expectation of inventory accumulation is taking shape. The decline in China's refinery procurement intention further intensifies inventory pressure [5]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: The current crude oil market is in a weak and volatile pattern. Without unexpected production cuts by OPEC+ to hedge, oil prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On August 11, compared with August 8, SC futures price slightly decreased, WTI and Brent futures prices increased, and most spot prices changed slightly. Some spreads narrowed, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while the Cushing inventory increased. The U.S. refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased [8]. - **Fuel Oil**: On August 11, compared with August 8, the prices of some fuel oil futures and spot products changed. Some spreads widened, and some Platts prices decreased [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: UBS expects oil prices to fall below previous expectations due to strong South American oil production, the supply resilience of sanctioned countries, and the expectation of future inventory increases. UBS also expects OPEC+ to suspend its production adjustment unless there is a larger and continuous unexpected supply disruption [10]. - **Demand**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may affect supply. Global oil demand is expected to peak in August and then decline. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is delayed, and China's gasoline and diesel orders decreased in early August, indicating weakening demand [11]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts related to the crude oil and fuel oil industries, including price, production, inventory, and operating rate data, with data sources such as WIND, EIA, and iFinD [12][14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain high - level volatility, driven by the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and geopolitical risk premiums. The tight - balance pattern of supply remains unchanged, domestic demand has resilience but high prices suppress restocking flexibility, and overseas demand is weak. The probability of a September interest rate cut indicated by CME interest rate futures has risen to 90%, and the weakening dollar provides support, but the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical risk may cause emotional fluctuations [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On August 11, the SHFE copper main contract closed at 79,020 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan/ton or 0.74% from August 8. The spot premium strengthened, with the premium of premium copper rising from 160 yuan/ton on August 8 to 230 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat - water copper also expanding to 110 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 month spread narrowed to - 69.55 dollars/ton but remained in a deep contango range [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest increased by 3,820 lots to 267,065 lots on August 8, which may reflect some short - covering. The SHFE inventory on August 11 was 155,700 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.1%, with two consecutive weeks of destocking. The LME inventory increased by 2,003 tons to 23,275 tons in a single week, increasing the overseas visible inventory pressure [2]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: Part of the El Teniente copper mine under Codelco was approved to restart, but four mining areas remained closed due to a collapse accident, and the annual output recovery needs observation. Chifeng Gold's Laos SND project disclosed 131.5 million tons of copper - gold ore resources, but it is in the resource exploration stage and is difficult to contribute to short - term supply. Chile's copper export value in July decreased slightly by 0.4% year - on - year. Combined with the transformation of Baiyin Nonferrous's copper concentrate warehouse, the raw material supply for domestic smelting has been enhanced, and refined copper supply tends to be loose [3]. - **需求端**: Copper processing enterprises in North China maintained stable operation, but the high price of 79,000 yuan/ton suppressed downstream purchasing flexibility. The spot market showed a game between "holders holding up prices" and "rigid - demand buyers pressing down prices", and there were no obvious peak - season characteristics in terminal consumption. Overseas, the continuous contango of LME indicated insufficient overseas demand [4]. - **库存端**: Global visible inventories showed differentiation: LME inventory increased by 2,003 tons, COMEX inventory slightly increased to 264,140 short tons, while SHFE inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks. The inventory in China's bonded area was not disclosed, but the closed import window suppressed the customs declaration volume, and the sustainability of short - term destocking was questionable [5]. Market Summary - Short - term judgment: The copper price is expected to maintain high - level volatility, mainly driven by the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and geopolitical risk premiums [6]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The SMM 1 copper premium copper price on August 11 was 79,190 yuan/ton with a premium of 230 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton and 70 yuan/ton respectively from August 8. The flat - water copper premium was 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The wet - process copper premium remained unchanged at 10 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) spread was - 82 dollars/ton, down 12 dollars/ton. The SHFE price was 79,020 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan/ton. The LME price was 9,727 dollars/ton, down 42 dollars/ton. The LME inventory was 23,275 tons, up 2,003 tons. The SHFE inventory was 155,700 tons, down 150 tons. The COMEX inventory was 265,196 short tons, up 1,056 short tons [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On August 11, Codelco was approved to partially restart the El Teniente copper mine, with four mining areas near the collapse accident site remaining closed [9]. - On August 10, the unaffected areas of Codelco's El Teniente copper mine were approved to resume operation by the Chilean labor department [9]. - On August 8, Chifeng Gold announced new copper - gold ore resources in its Laos SND project, but it is in the exploration stage [9]. - On August 8, Chile's copper export value in July decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [10]. - On August 7, Baiyin Nonferrous started the intelligent transformation project of its copper concentrate warehouse, which will improve storage and transportation efficiency [10]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China's PMI, US employment, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [11][13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of lithium carbonate futures has soared due to supply disruptions and market sentiment, but the fundamental contradictions have not been substantially reversed. The actual reduction from the Jiangxi mine shutdown may be partially offset by import increases. The downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the weak trading reflects the limited acceptance of high prices in the industry chain. The continuous accumulation of social inventory and warehouse receipts suppresses the rebound momentum of spot prices. It is expected that the price will enter a high - level oscillation range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, but there is a risk of a callback after the sentiment fades [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 11, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose to 81,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.25% from August 8. Affected by the news of the lithium mine shutdown over the weekend, all contracts were at the daily limit. The basis weakened significantly from - 5,710 yuan/ton to - 8,800 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased slightly by 0.94% to 317,600 lots, and the trading volume dropped sharply by 95.75% to 38,000 lots, indicating a highly consistent bullish sentiment in the market [1]. - **Supply and Demand in the Industrial Chain and Inventory Changes**: On the supply side, the Jiangxi Jianxiawo mining area stopped production on August 9 due to the expiration of the mining license, restricting the supply of lithium mica. However, the lithium extraction capacity from spodumene remained high, and there was potential supply elasticity from overseas mines in Africa and South America, resulting in a differentiated supply pressure in China. Lithium salt plants could make up for short - term shortages through inventory or imported ores. On the demand side, downstream demand showed differentiation. In July, the retail volume of new energy vehicles decreased by 10% month - on - month, but the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate materials rebounded to 32,850 yuan/ton, supported by the stocking demand of energy storage and some battery factories. The price of ternary materials remained stable, indicating that the demand for vehicle - used power batteries had not significantly increased. As of August 7, the social inventory increased to 142,400 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory soared to 18,800 tons, indicating a loose supply in the spot circulation link and strong delivery intention, which suppressed the upward space of near - month contracts [2]. - **Market Summary**: The short - term price of lithium carbonate futures has rapidly risen due to supply disruptions and sentiment, but the fundamental contradictions have not been resolved. The actual reduction from the Jiangxi mine shutdown may be partially offset by imports. Downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the light trading reflects limited acceptance of high prices. The continuous accumulation of inventory suppresses the rebound of spot prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate at a high level in the next 1 - 2 weeks, but there is a risk of a callback after the sentiment fades [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: From August 8 to August 11, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased from 76,960 yuan/ton to 81,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.25%. The basis weakened from - 5,710 yuan/ton to - 8,800 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 0.94% to 317,676 lots, and the trading volume dropped by 95.75% to 38,071 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.33% to 72,200 yuan/ton, the market price of spodumene concentrate rose by 12.5% to 900 yuan/ton, and the market price of lithium mica concentrate increased by 8.33% to 975 yuan/ton. From August 1 to August 8, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 63.92%, and the lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.49% to 142,418 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On August 11, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose to 74,567 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased to 74,500 yuan/ton. The suspension of mining in the Jiangxi Jianxiawo area affected the output of lithium mica and related lithium carbonate, causing the lithium carbonate futures to open at the daily limit. However, the increase in spodumene - based lithium carbonate and the use of inventory or zero - order purchases by related lithium salt plants could prevent a significant shortage in the spot market. Both upstream and downstream parties were cautious, and market trading was light [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 31, the retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 1.003 million, a 14% year - on - year increase but a 10% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale volume was 1.179 million, a 25% year - on - year increase but a 4% month - on - month decrease [7]. - **Industry News**: From late July to the end of the month, the price of cobalt intermediate products continued to rise. On the supply side, major mining companies suspended public quotations, and some traders reduced inventory and controlled shipments. On the demand side, the price increase of cobalt smelting products was slower than that of cobalt intermediate products, leading to cost inversion for smelting plants. Some smelting enterprises with low inventory planned to substitute raw materials or reduce production. Affected by the delay policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the supply of cobalt intermediate products in China may be short, and prices may rise, but the impact on downstream demand needs attention [8][9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term PX and PTA prices may maintain a volatile pattern, while in the long - term, attention should be paid to whether the demand side can form continuous pull [4]. - The prices of the industrial chain are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term, mainly driven by the contradiction between the continuous compression of PTA processing fees forcing upstream production cuts and the extension of the raw material stocking cycle of weaving enterprises [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On August 11, the PX main contract closed at 6778.0 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 73.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4706.0 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 36.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the cost side, on August 11, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.32 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 63.35 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, the total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 467.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 479.13 million meters [2]. - On the supply side, a 1.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China shut down last weekend, and another 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant restarted. Weilian Chemical's 1 - million - ton PX plant recently resumed operation after maintenance at the end of June. Shenghong Refining & Chemical's 4 - million - ton PX plant reduced its load from July 17 to around August 10. Currently, the PTA start - up rate has rebounded, which supports the PX market [2]. - The downstream demand is weak, suppressing the price. The transaction volume of Light Textile City is lower than the 15 - day average, indicating weak procurement sentiment in the terminal textile market. The lack of incremental drivers in the consumption of polyester products such as polyester fiber restricts the recovery space of PTA demand. The increasing negative feedback pressure from downstream may lead to a further decline in the polyester start - up rate, weakening the demand elasticity of PTA [3]. - The PTA factory inventory is at a neutral level, and the current price rebound of PTA is mainly driven by cost and supply reduction expectations rather than inventory depletion. However, if the terminal demand continues to weaken, PTA inventory may accumulate passively, suppressing the medium - term price increase space [4]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 11, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6408.0 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6490.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 82.0 yuan/ton [5]. - From the supply side, the PX futures price fluctuated widely, and the PTA futures price declined continuously, indicating that the supply pressure at the raw material end was gradually transmitted downstream. On the demand side, the 15 - day moving average of the transaction volume of Light Textile City continued to decline, indicating a marginal weakening of terminal weaving demand. In terms of inventory, the inventory days of polyester short - fiber, FDY, and DTY are all higher than the historical average, reflecting that the industrial chain is in an active de - stocking cycle [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price increased by 0.77% to 6778 yuan/ton, the main contract trading volume increased by 14.70% to 74,068 lots, and the main contract open interest decreased by 7.36% to 84,351 lots [7]. - PTA futures: The main contract price increased by 0.47% to 4706 yuan/ton, the main contract trading volume increased by 28.06% to 444,706 lots, and the main contract open interest decreased by 2.58% to 682,845 lots [7]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price increased by 0.41% to 6408 yuan/ton, the main contract trading volume increased by 0.90% to 110,830 lots, and the main contract open interest increased by 1.19% to 180,318 lots [7]. - Other prices: The prices of most products in the industrial chain remained unchanged on August 11 compared with August 8, except for slight increases in the prices of Brent crude oil and US crude oil main contracts [7]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 11, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman supported starting interest rate cuts in September and cutting interest rates three times this year. JPMorgan Chase changed its expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year from once to three times [9]. - On August 11, Guangdong's CPI in July decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.0% year - on - year. In July 2025, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month; the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed for the first time since March [9]. - On August 8, Trump nominated Stephen Milan, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to serve as a Federal Reserve governor until January 31, 2026. Waller became a hot candidate for the new Fed chairman. The US Treasury Secretary started the interview process for the Fed chairman. Bostic said that the July employment report changed the Fed's view of the employment target [9]. - On August 8, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and four voting members supported keeping interest rates unchanged. It was the first time to hold two votes in history. In July, China's imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%; imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8% [9]. - On August 8, the central bank increased its gold reserves for the 9th consecutive month, with the gold reserve at the end of July reaching 73.96 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 ounces. The People's Bank of China carried out a 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months [10]. 3.3.2 Supply and Demand - Demand - On August 11, the total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 467.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51%. The transaction volume of long - fiber fabrics was 383.0 million meters, and the transaction volume of short - fiber fabrics was 86.0 million meters [11].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current ethylene glycol market is in a game between weak reality and strong cost. The rapid increase in port inventories and the lack of improvement in downstream demand continue to suppress the upside price space, while the widespread deep losses in production processes increase the resistance to further price declines. In the short term, the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the marginal impact of device maintenance dynamics caused by low valuations and the polyester peak - season expectations on market sentiment. If port destocking continues to fall short of expectations, there is a possibility of the price breaking through the cost support downward [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures and Basis**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract dropped slightly for two consecutive days, reaching 4,422 yuan/ton on the 8th, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous day. The East China spot price also weakened, reaching 4,455 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 10 yuan/ton. The basis widened by 8 yuan/ton to 48 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot market has relatively stronger support for futures, but the absolute price is still under pressure. The 1 - 5 spread further widened to - 45 yuan/ton, suggesting a pessimistic medium - to - short - term supply - demand outlook [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract significantly shrank. On the 8th, the trading volume decreased by 36,000 lots to 80,700 lots, a decline of 30.99%, and the open interest decreased by 11,500 lots to 205,300 lots, indicating obvious signs of capital withdrawal and a shift in market trading sentiment towards caution [2]. - **Supply**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 62.3%, with the operating loads of oil - based (66.15%), coal - based (56.45%), and methanol - based (62.43%) plants remaining unchanged. All production processes continued to operate at a loss, with coal - based profits remaining at - 234 yuan/ton, and losses of 88.51 US dollars/ton, 703.99 yuan/ton, and 1,165.23 yuan/ton for naphtha - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based processes respectively. Cost pressure limited supply elasticity [3]. - **Demand**: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. There was no increase in terminal textile demand, and combined with the seasonal weakening of foreign trade orders, downstream procurement willingness for ethylene glycol was mainly rigid, making it difficult to drive inventory digestion [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at the East China main port climbed to 485,700 tons, a significant weekly increase of 59,000 tons. Among them, the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 40.6% (52,000 tons), highlighting the port inventory accumulation pressure. Although the arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons compared to the previous period, the slowdown in port shipments led to an unexpected inventory accumulation speed, and the supply - demand contradiction continued to accumulate [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main ethylene glycol futures contract price decreased from 4,430 yuan/ton on the 7th to 4,422 yuan/ton on the 8th, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The East China spot price decreased from 4,465 yuan/ton to 4,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.22% [2][5]. - **Spreads**: The basis widened by 8 yuan/ton to 48 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread further widened to - 45 yuan/ton [2][5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester factory, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates all remained unchanged [3][5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 485,700 tons, a weekly increase of 13.69%. The Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 52,000 tons to 180,000 tons, an increase of 40.62%. The arrival volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, a decrease of 39.72% [3][5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 8, the focus of the East China US dollar market remained stagnant, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 522 - 525 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were reported [6]. - On August 8, the spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable, with the market average price around 4,000 yuan/ton for self - pick - up [6]. - On August 8, the mainstream market adjusted downward, the quotes of holders in the South China market were lowered, and the market trading atmosphere was cold, with the current price around 4,500 yuan/ton for delivery [6]. - On August 8, the meeting between the US and Russia made progress, international oil prices continued to decline, ethylene glycol supply gradually returned, market sentiment turned bearish, and the market price adjusted downward, with the current East China price negotiated around 4,455 yuan/ton [6]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory statistics at the East China main port (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11][14][16][18].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pure Benzene & Styrene Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 11, 2025 [2] - Report Author: R & D Department of Tonghui Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - Pure Benzene: Supply increases slightly due to new installations, demand remains stable, inventory decreases slightly. The supply - demand situation may improve marginally in August - September, but the improvement is limited due to high hidden inventory and weak terminal consumption [4] - Styrene: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, showing a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. It will remain in oversupply in August - September, but the relatively strong price of pure benzene provides some support [5] Group 4: Daily Market Summary Fundamental Information - Price: On August 8, the styrene main contract closed down 0.84% at 7,235 yuan/ton, with a basis of 60 (+11 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 0.70% at 6,204 yuan/ton [3] - Cost: On August 8, Brent crude oil closed at $63.9/barrel (-$0.5/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $66.4/barrel (-$0.5/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,107.5 yuan/ton (-37.5 yuan/ton) [3] - Inventory: Styrene sample factory inventory was 211,000 tons (-6,000 tons), a 2.71% MoM decrease; Jiangsu port inventory was 159,000 tons (-5,000 tons), a 3.05% MoM decrease; pure benzene port inventory was 163,000 tons (-7,000 tons), a 4.12% MoM decrease [3] - Supply: A new styrene plant in Shandong was put into operation, with overall stable supply. Weekly styrene output was 359,000 tons (-2,000 tons), and factory capacity utilization was 77.7% (-1.2%) [3] - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. EPS capacity utilization was 43.7% (-10.6%), ABS was 71.1% (+5.2%), and PS was 55.0% (+1.7%) [3] Views - Pure Benzene: Supply increases slightly, demand is stable, and inventory decreases due to typhoon - affected arrivals. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally in 8 - 9 months, but the improvement is limited [4] - Styrene: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and it is expected to remain in oversupply in 8 - 9 months. However, the strong pure benzene price provides support [5] Group 5: Industry Chain Data Monitoring Price Data - Styrene: The main contract price decreased by 0.84% to 7,235 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased slightly [7] - Pure Benzene: The main contract price decreased by 0.70% to 6,204 yuan/ton, and prices in different regions also showed slight declines [7] - Upstream: Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices decreased, while naphtha prices remained unchanged [7] Production and Inventory Data - Production: Styrene production decreased slightly to 359,000 tons, and pure benzene production increased to 446,000 tons [8] - Inventory: Styrene and pure benzene inventories all decreased [8] Capacity Utilization Data - Styrene: Capacity utilization decreased to 77.7% [9] - Pure Benzene Downstream: The capacity utilization of some products changed, such as a decrease in caprolactam and an increase in adipic acid [9] - Styrene Downstream: EPS capacity utilization decreased significantly, while ABS and PS increased [9] Group 6: Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply affects naphtha costs, with expected record - high naphtha imports in 2025 [10] - Global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, having a structural impact on the crude oil and chemical chain [10] - India accelerates petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominance [10] Group 7: Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, inventory, and capacity utilization [11][21][22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper market may continue to oscillate within a range and may show a short - term upward trend. Supply - side factors such as mine disturbances and improved smelting efficiency offset each other, but the decline in anode copper开工率 limits supply flexibility. On the demand side, the weakness in construction and exports offsets the growth in the new energy sector, and the terminal de - stocking power is insufficient. The increase in LME inventory strengthens the market's expectation of looser supply - demand, and the macro - sentiment is suppressed by the Fed's policy and geopolitical tariff issues [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On August 8, the price of the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,440 yuan/ton. The spot premium - discount structure strengthened overall. The discount of premium copper narrowed to 160 yuan/ton, and that of flat - water copper narrowed to 95 yuan/ton, indicating short - term tight supply in the spot market. The LME (0 - 3) discount slightly widened to - 65.63 dollars/ton, highlighting the divergence in spot premiums and discounts between the domestic and international markets [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: On August 7, the LME copper position decreased by 2,005 lots to 263,245 lots, reflecting cautious market sentiment. The SHFE contract position remained stable, and the trading volume slightly shrank, indicating a decline in short - term capital participation [1] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are many short - term disturbances at the mine end. Although Chifeng Gold discovered new copper resources in Laos, actual capacity release will take a long time. Chile's copper export value in July decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and the supply - side growth rate may slow down. Baiyin Nonferrous completed the intelligent transformation of the copper concentrate warehouse, improving the ore unloading efficiency by 40%. However, the anode copper enterprise开工率 in August decreased by 3.96% month - on - month, and there is still pressure on refined copper supply in the short term [2] - **Demand Side**: Terminal demand is significantly differentiated. The new energy sector performs strongly, with the cumulative power generation of wind power increasing by 10.6% year - on - year and the output of new energy vehicles increasing by 26.4% year - on - year. However, the copper consumption in the construction/real estate sector decreased year - on - year, and the demand for copper in the photovoltaic sector declined after the rush - installation, dragging down copper consumption. The high tariff imposed by the US on Mexican copper tubes led to blocked exports, and the domestic copper terminal PMI further contracted (expected to drop to 47.49% in August), resulting in insufficient overall demand - side support [2] - **Inventory Side**: On August 8, the LME inventory increased by 1,127 tons to 21,272 tons compared with the previous day, showing a continuous three - day inventory accumulation trend and indicating obvious pressure on visible inventory. The SHFE inventory slightly decreased by 0.1% to 155,850 tons but remained at a high level this year, indicating weak domestic consumption momentum. The COMEX inventory also increased moderately, and the marginal increase in global inventory put pressure on copper prices [2] c. Market Summary - The copper market may continue the oscillating trend within a range and may show a short - term upward trend. The supply - side factors of mine disturbances and improved smelting efficiency offset each other, but the decline in anode copper开工率 limits supply flexibility. The weakness in construction and exports on the demand side offsets the growth in the new energy sector, and the terminal de - stocking power is insufficient. The increase in LME inventory strengthens the market's expectation of looser supply - demand, and the macro - sentiment is suppressed by the Fed's policy and geopolitical tariff issues [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On August 8, 2025, the SMM 1 copper price was 78,640 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase from the previous day; the SHFE price was 78,440 yuan/ton, also a 0.05% increase. The LME price was 9,768 dollars/ton, a 1.01% increase. The LME inventory increased by 5.59% to 21,272 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.1% to 155,850 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.32% to 264,140 short tons [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 7, Chifeng Gold announced a new discovery in its SND gold - copper mine project in Laos, with about 131.5 million tons of ore and a gold - equivalent metal volume of about 106.9 tons [6] - In July, Chile's copper export value was 3.99 billion dollars, a 0.4% decrease from the previous year [6] - Baiyin Nonferrous started the intelligent transformation project of the 19 line concentrate warehouse, which will increase the ore storage capacity from 30,000 tons to 47,000 tons and improve the unloading efficiency by 40% [7] - SMM expects that the overall anode copper enterprise开工率 in China in August will decrease by 3.96 percentage points to 57.15% [7] - The high tariff imposed by the US on Mexican copper tubes has led to blocked exports, and the US copper tube processing fee has significantly increased. The follow - up situation of whether the US will relax the tariff on Mexican copper materials needs to be concerned [7] 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fee, CFTC copper position, LME copper net long position analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipt volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [8][12][13][15][18][20][24][26][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market shows characteristics of weak supply and demand, with more obvious supply pressure. In the medium - term, oil prices may remain in a low - level, volatile and weak pattern, and the SC - WTI spread has room to further narrow [5]. - Supply - side factors such as Iraq's price war, increased production in the Middle East and Canada, and India's substitution of Russian oil purchases form triple negative impacts. Demand is only supported by policies in some local markets, and global industrial demand is still constrained by China's economic weakness and the tightening policies of Europe and the United States [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On August 8, the price of the SC crude oil main contract dropped to 489.8 yuan/barrel, a 2.24% decline from the previous day, showing a continuous five - day downward trend. WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 63.82 and 66.41 US dollars/barrel respectively. The spreads between SC and Brent, WTI weakened by 47.49% and 26.92% respectively, indicating a significant narrowing of the premium of Chinese crude oil futures relative to international oil prices. The spread between SC continuous and SC consecutive - three narrowed to 8.6 yuan/barrel, weakening the near - weak and far - strong structure [1]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may disrupt Russia's refined oil exports, but Russia has stated that it will increase processing volume to ensure fuel supply. Iraq lowered its official crude oil selling prices to North America and Europe in September, indicating its intention to seize market share. Coupled with the recovery of heavy crude oil production in Canada and the Middle East, the global crude oil supply is relatively loose [2]. - **Demand Side**: India approved a 300 - billion - rupee LPG subsidy, which may boost household fuel consumption. However, the demand side of refineries is differentiated. US refiners benefit from the increased supply of heavy crude oil, and their profit expectations are improved. In China, the prices of refined products such as asphalt and fuel oil have fallen, and the PPI in July continued to decline negatively, suggesting that the demand for infrastructure and industrial oil has not substantially recovered [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory data of Cushing and commercial crude oil in the United States have not been updated. The decrease in the procurement cost of heavy crude oil by refineries may drive refineries to increase their utilization rates, thereby accelerating inventory depletion. Russia's increase in crude oil processing volume to meet domestic demand may suppress its crude oil export volume. However, India's possible reduction of Russian oil imports may lead to competitive selling of Russian oil flowing to Europe, indirectly increasing the implicit inventory pressure on OECD countries [4]. 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment - The current crude oil market has the characteristics of weak supply and demand, with more obvious supply pressure. In the medium - term, OPEC+ has not yet signaled further production cuts, and the improvement of US refinery profits has limited impact on demand. Oil prices may maintain a low - level, volatile and weak pattern, and the SC - WTI spread has room to further narrow [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: On August 8, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price was 489.80 yuan/barrel, a 2.24% decline from the previous day; the WTI price was 63.35 US dollars/barrel, a 0.74% decline; the Brent price was 66.32 US dollars/barrel, a 0.14% decline [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various types of crude oil spot showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling [7]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between SC and Brent, SC and WTI narrowed, while the spread between Brent and WTI widened. The spread between SC continuous and SC consecutive - three also narrowed [7]. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index rose by 0.19%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.78%, the DAX index fell by 0.12%, and the RMB exchange rate remained basically unchanged [7]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.71%, the Cushing inventory increased by 2.01%, and the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.06%. The API inventory decreased by 0.93%. The US refinery weekly开工率 increased by 1.57%, and the US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 1.26% [7]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: The prices of various fuel oil futures showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various fuel oil spot also showed different degrees of change [8]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different types of fuel oil showed different degrees of change, with some narrowing and some widening [8]. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 6.69% [8]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - On August 10, the Ukrainian armed forces attacked Russia's Saratov refinery. On August 8, India was willing to reduce its oil imports from Russia as part of the tariff settlement and was also willing to purchase from other places. India's oil companies continued to import Russian oil, but the quantity might decrease. India's Hindustan Petroleum Corporation was looking for alternative sources of oil [9][10]. 3.3.2 Demand - US refiners' ability to purchase heavy crude oil at low prices will improve in the second half of this year. India's cabinet approved a 300 - billion - rupee LPG subsidy. Russia increased its oil processing and fuel production to meet demand [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The fuel oil futures warehouse receipts, medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts, and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged compared with the previous trading day [12]. 3.3.4 Market Information - Iraq set the official selling prices of Basra medium - sulfur crude oil for different regions in September. China's PPI in July was expected to improve. The prices of crude oil - related futures contracts showed different degrees of decline. India's cabinet approved a 300 - billion - rupee subsidy for state - owned fuel retailers [12]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc [15][17][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of lithium carbonate futures may continue to fluctuate at a high level, but the upward space is restricted by the contradiction between supply and demand. Supply disturbances push up costs, but demand resilience is questionable, and capital sentiment dominates the market. There is a risk of a high - level correction if demand - side restocking falls short of expectations in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 8, the price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract rose significantly to 76,960 yuan/ton, a 6.45% increase from the previous day; the basis weakened significantly to - 5,710 yuan/ton, widening by 4,560 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest exceeded 320,000 lots, a 10.65% increase, and the trading volume increased by 16.82% to 896,000 lots [1]. 3.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.26% and 1.12% respectively during the week, strengthening the raw material cost support. Although the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained flat at 63.92%, the suspension of production at Ningde's Jiaxiaowo Mine and the slowdown of Pilbara's expansion in Australia strengthened the bullish sentiment on the supply side [2]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials continued to rise, with power - type lithium iron phosphate rising 0.86% to 32,850 yuan/ton. However, the demand for new energy vehicles weakened marginally, with new energy retail sales in July decreasing by 10% to 1.003 million vehicles, and the momentum for restocking in the peak season remains to be verified [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate increased slightly by 0.49% to 142,418 tons. The increased inquiry activity in the spot market and the restocking expectation in the middle of the industrial chain provided short - term support for prices [2]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - The short - term trend of the lithium carbonate futures main contract may continue to fluctuate at a high level, but the upward space is restricted by the contradiction between supply and demand. Supply disturbances push up costs, but demand resilience is questionable, and capital sentiment dominates. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, attention should be paid to the implementation of mining policies in Jiangxi and the production fulfillment of cathode materials in mid - to - late August. If restocking on the demand side falls short of expectations, there is a risk of a high - level correction [3]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On August 8, the price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract was 76,960 yuan/ton, a 6.45% increase from the previous day; the basis was - 5,710 yuan/ton, a significant weakening. The open interest and trading volume increased significantly. The prices of lithium carbonate, lithium concentrate, and cathode materials showed different degrees of change, while the prices of some batteries remained stable [5]. 3.5 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On August 8, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 71,961 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,012 yuan/ton from the previous working day. With the increase in the production plans of downstream cathode materials and battery cell enterprises in August, the market procurement demand showed a warming trend, and the inquiry activity increased significantly. The expected short - term supply tightening and the approaching peak demand season increased the probability of a short - term price increase [6]. - **Downstream Consumption Situation**: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 31, the national passenger car new energy market retail sales were 1.003 million vehicles, a 14% increase year - on - year but a 10% decrease from the previous month. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 54.7%. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by manufacturers was 1.179 million vehicles, a 25% increase year - on - year but a 4% decrease from the previous month [7]. - **Industry News**: In July, driven by the national "anti - involution" policy, the photovoltaic and lithium - battery sectors adjusted rapidly, and funds flowed in, driving up the futures prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. The lithium carbonate futures main contract rose from a low of 58,400 yuan/ton on June 23 to a high of 80,520 yuan/ton on July 25, with a maximum increase of 37.88% [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The PX and PTA markets are under pressure due to weak supply - demand and inventory build - up, and are expected to continue their weak trend. The polyester industry chain is in a weak supply - demand pattern and may maintain a weak and volatile short - term performance [2][5]. - Future prices of PX and PTA may continue to face downward pressure, with supply - side开工率 remaining stable or high, cost support weakening due to falling crude oil prices, demand being dragged down by the possible weakening of polyester demand, and inventory likely to accumulate [37]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On August 8, the PX main contract closed at 6726.0 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 9.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4684.0 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 6.0 yuan/ton. The closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 66.41 US dollars/barrel, and the WTI was 63.82 US dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 479.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction volume was 486.27 million meters [3]. - In terms of supply, the short - term supply pressure of PX and PTA has increased marginally. The continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a significant collapse in PX cost support. Although the PX plant maintenance plan has not been implemented, PX enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain a high operating rate. For PTA, the restart plan of plants in August has increased, and the operating rate may remain high, with an increasing expectation of short - term supply relaxation [3]. - In terms of demand, polyester and terminal demand show seasonal weakness. The average transaction volume of the Light Textile City in the past 15 days is 486.27 million meters, and the recent transaction volume has further declined to 479 million meters, indicating that terminal textile orders have not improved substantially. The polyester operating rate may fluctuate narrowly between 84% - 86% and is difficult to drive PTA demand beyond expectations [4]. - In terms of inventory, PTA factory inventory has the risk of passive accumulation. The PTA supply - demand balance has changed from tight to loose in August, and the destocking cycle may end. If demand remains weak and new PTA plants are put into production as expected, social inventory may return to the inventory build - up channel, and the spot basis will continue to be at a discount, suppressing the elasticity of futures prices [4]. Polyester - On August 8, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6382.0 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6490.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 108.0 yuan/ton [5]. - The polyester industry chain shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream raw material supply is abundant or the cost support is weakening. The terminal textile demand has weakened marginally. The inventory days of polyester filament POY, FDY, and DTY have all increased and are higher than the five - year average, and the overall inventory pressure is large. In the short term, the polyester industry chain may maintain a weak and volatile operation [5]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.44% to 6.726 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 25.72% to 64,578 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.12% to 91,057 lots. The CFR price of the Chinese main port remained unchanged at 839.67 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price in South Korea decreased by 1.10% to 806 US dollars/ton. The PX basis increased by 142.86% to 9 yuan/ton [6]. - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.09% to 4,684 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 16.74% to 347,274 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.40% to 700,930 lots. The CFR price of the Chinese main port decreased by 0.96% to 622 US dollars/ton. The PTA basis increased by 200.00% to 6 yuan/ton [6]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.16% to 6,382 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 4.03% to 109,840 lots, and the open interest increased by 2.40% to 178,205 lots. The mainstream spot price in the East China market remained unchanged at 6,490 yuan/ton. The PF basis increased by 10.20% to 108 yuan/ton [6]. - Other prices: The Brent crude oil main contract decreased by 0.14% to 66.32 US dollars/barrel, the US crude oil main contract decreased by 0.74% to 63.35 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR price of naphtha in Japan decreased by 0.09% to 570.5 US dollars/ton [6]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 8, Trump nominated Stephen Milan as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, Waller became a hot candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, the US Treasury Secretary started the interview process for the Federal Reserve Chairman, and Bostic said that the July employment report changed the Federal Reserve's view on employment goals. The central bank increased its gold reserves for the 9th consecutive month, and the gold reserve at the end of July was 73.96 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 ounces. The People's Bank of China carried out a 700 - billion - yuan repurchase operation with a term of 3 months [8]. - On August 7, Trump said that the new Federal Reserve Board member might be temporary and would announce the appointment within 2 - 3 days, and also said that if other countries imported Russian crude oil, they might be imposed a 25% tariff. Kashkari of the Federal Reserve said that it might be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short term, and two interest rate cuts this year were reasonable [8]. Supply - Demand - Demand - On August 8, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 479.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.97%, with the long - fiber fabric transaction volume at 394.0 million meters and the short - fiber fabric transaction volume at 86.0 million meters [9]. 4. Appendix: Big Model Reasoning Process - Analyze from the supply, demand, and inventory perspectives. On the supply side, the operating rates of PX and PTA may remain stable or high, and the falling crude oil prices lead to weakened cost support. On the demand side, the slightly decreased transaction volume of the Light Textile City may indicate weakening polyester demand, which in turn drags down PTA demand. On the inventory side, inventory may accumulate due to the supply - demand relationship [35][36][37].