1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current crude oil market features "weak reality, strong expectation." In the short - term, the price is under pressure, with WTI and Brent continuing weak oscillations. In the medium - term, the price center may gradually rise from a low level. In the long - term, the upward space is restricted. Overall, the oil price may maintain a pattern of "low - level oscillation with a slowly rising center," and the fluctuation range may break through if the Iran - US nuclear negotiation fails or geopolitical conflicts escalate [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Data Change Analysis - SC crude oil rose slightly to 470.1 yuan/barrel on May 21, up 1.01% from the previous day, indicating a marginal improvement in the market's demand expectation for the Asian region. WTI and Brent continued to decline, with WTI closing at $61.34/barrel (down 1.46%) and Brent at $64.58/barrel (down 1.55%), affected by inventory pressure and demand concerns in the European and American markets. - The SC - Brent spread strengthened significantly, rising from -$1.15/barrel to $0.65/barrel. The spread of SC near - month contracts (continuous - continuous 3) changed from backwardation to flat price (-0.9→0.0 yuan/barrel), indicating a short - term alleviation of supply - demand contradictions [3] 3.1.2 Supply, Demand and Inventory Dynamics - **Supply side**: OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, but the increase may be weaker than expected. The supply increase has uncertainties due to Iraq's reservation on the energy agreement in the Kurdish region. EIA data shows that the US crude oil imports dropped to 110,000 barrels (previous value: 422,000 barrels), and the commissioned crude oil volume decreased to 89,000 barrels/day (previous value: 330,000 barrels/day), indicating a short - term supply contraction [4] - **Demand side**: The implied demand for US crude oil production rose to 19.291 million barrels/day (previous value: 18.735 million barrels/day), but the distillate fuel oil demand fell to 4.7703 million barrels/day (previous value: 5.2107 million barrels/day). The gasoline inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels, showing a structural differentiation in demand. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory increased by 843,000 barrels (previous value: 528,000 barrels), which may imply the government's concern about the medium - and long - term supply [4] - **Inventory**: The US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels unexpectedly (expected: -1.277 million barrels). High inventories in Cushing and globally suppress the upward space of oil prices [4] 3.1.3 Industry Chain and Price Trend Judgment - The current crude oil market shows the characteristics of "weak reality, strong expectation." In the short - term, the rising US commercial inventory, the decline in distillate fuel oil demand and the OPEC+ production increase expectation suppress the near - end price, and WTI and Brent continue weak oscillations. In the medium - term, the strengthening of SC crude oil and the repair of the near - month spread reflect the increasing restocking demand of Asian refineries. Coupled with the weakening expectation of the US economic recession and geopolitical risks, the oil price center may gradually rise from a low level. In the long - term, the accelerating energy transition and the slowing demand growth rate limit the upward space, and the pattern of oversupply has not reversed [5] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures prices**: SC rose, WTI and Brent fell. The spreads of SC - Brent, SC - WTI strengthened, while the Brent - WTI spread narrowed slightly. The spread of SC continuous - continuous 3 changed from backwardation to flat price [6] - **Spot prices**: Most spot prices showed an upward trend, with different increases [6] - **Inventory**: The US commercial crude oil inventory increased, the Cushing inventory decreased, and the US Strategic Reserve inventory increased [6] - **开工**: The US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased slightly [6] 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures prices**: FU and LU rose slightly, while NYMEX fuel oil fell slightly [7] - **Spot prices**: Most spot prices showed an upward trend, with different increases. The spreads between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuels in Singapore and China narrowed [7] - **Inventory**: The Singapore inventory decreased, while the US distillate inventories showed different changes [7] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - The US EIA crude oil imports and commissioned crude oil volume decreased in the week ending May 16. Iraq's oil minister has reservations about the energy agreement in the Kurdish region. Turkey's shale oil reserves are estimated to be 6.1 billion barrels. OPEC+ may continue to increase production in July, but the increase may be weaker [8][9] 3.3.2 Demand - The implied demand for US crude oil production increased, while the distillate fuel oil demand decreased. The渣油 market is under pressure [10] 3.3.3 Inventory - The US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased, the new - formula gasoline inventory decreased, the heating oil inventory decreased, and the crude oil inventory increased unexpectedly [11] 3.3.4 Market Information - The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures rose, and the SC crude oil futures price showed different trends. The EU is discussing the oil price cap on Russia, and South Africa plans to increase fuel taxes. The shipping and wholesale markets of fuel oil are not operating well [12] 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil, US and OPEC crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventories, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, etc. [13][15][17]

乙二醇成本支撑松动，当前供需格局下盘面谨慎回调 一、日度市场总结 乙二醇期货及现货价格延续窄幅震荡格局，主力期货合约微涨4元/吨至 4370元/吨，华东现货价格上涨5元/吨至4505元/吨，基差小幅收敛4元至 140元/吨。 供应方面，河南两套共计40万吨乙二醇装置预计5月24日停车检修，检修时 长10天左右。黔西煤化30万吨乙二醇装置预计今日升温重启。新疆天业95 万吨产能4月3日-5月6日停车检修，哈密广汇40万吨产能3月21日因管道问 题停车，预计持续到7月，中化学新材料30万吨装置3月23日停车，预计6月 初重启。中沙天津38万吨装置4月21日检修45天左右，中海壳牌35万吨装置 5月6日停车检修20天左右。截至5月15日，中国大陆地区乙二醇整体开工负 荷在60.51%（环比上期下降8.48%），其中草酸催化加氢法（合成气）制乙 二醇开工负荷在60.04%（环比上期下降6.71%）。5月12日-5月18日，张家 港到货数量约为4.3万吨，太仓码头到货数量约为0.7万吨，宁波到货数量 约为0.5万吨，上海到货数量约为0万吨，主港计划到货总数约为5.5万 吨。 需求方面，聚酯工厂负荷94.2%。国内织造综 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene: With the restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical's plant and the upcoming resumption of maintenance at CNOOC Huizhou and Jinxi Petrochemical, along with increased imports, social inventory is expected to rise, creating a bearish outlook for styrene. Currently, the supply of pure benzene exceeds demand, but some downstream products raised prices last week, and terminal inventory showed signs of reduction. Pure benzene production and imports are expected to increase, resulting in weak short - term prices and insufficient cost support for styrene [3][4]. - Styrene: The previous sharp rise in styrene has affected downstream industries. EPS, ABS, and PS are unable to raise prices in tandem, leading to compressed profits. Enterprises are under great operating pressure, and their willingness to purchase high - priced raw materials has declined. Although the easing of Sino - US trade relations is expected to benefit exports, the current losses make it difficult for the supply - demand situation to improve substantially. The positive news has been digested, and the price of upstream crude oil fluctuates greatly. Attention should be paid to the potential weakening of the market due to the decline in pure benzene prices [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On May 21, the main styrene contract closed down 0.77% at 7,570 yuan/ton, with a basis of 256 yuan/ton (-14 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Cost**: On May 21, the main Brent crude oil contract closed at $62.0/barrel (-$0.1/barrel), the main WTI crude oil contract closed at $65.4/barrel (-$0.1/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,125 yuan/ton (+25 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 21.3 million tons (-1.9 million tons), a month - on - month decrease of 8.2%, and Jiangsu port inventory was 5.7 million tons (-1.2 million tons), a month - on - month decrease of 17.2%. Styrene inventory continued to decline, and spot liquidity tightened [2]. - **Supply**: The overhauled styrene plants are gradually resuming operation, with an expected increase in supply. Affected by the restart of some plants, the weekly styrene output decreased 1.29% month - on - month to 32.65 million tons (-0.42 million tons), and the plant capacity utilization rate was 71.3% (-0.9%) [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream 3S products varied. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 62.3% (+15.0%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 67.4% (-1.6%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 57.1% (+0.8%), showing a significant rebound [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Prices of Styrene and Pure Benzene**: From May 20 to May 21, the price of the styrene futures main contract increased 0.05%, the spot price decreased 1.09%, and the basis decreased 5.19%. Among pure benzene prices, the price in East China increased 0.41%, the South Korean FOB price increased 0.14%, the US FOB price decreased 0.42%, and the Chinese CFR price increased 0.27%. The pure benzene internal - CFR spread increased 2.07%, and the East China - Shandong spread increased 50.00%. The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha all decreased slightly [6]. - **Output and Inventory of Styrene and Pure Benzene**: From May 9 to May 16, the styrene output in China decreased 1.29% to 32.6 million tons, and the pure benzene output decreased 2.94% to 39.0 million tons. The styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased 17.23% to 5.7 million tons, the domestic styrene factory inventory decreased 8.17% to 21.3 million tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased 2.50% to 12.3 million tons [7]. - **Operating Rates**: From May 9 to May 16, the capacity utilization rate of styrene decreased 0.93% to 71.3%, the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam increased 0.07% to 83.8%, the capacity utilization rate of phenol increased 3.00% to 78.0%, and the capacity utilization rate of aniline decreased 6.44% to 68.9%. Among styrene downstream products, the EPS capacity utilization rate increased 14.96% to 62.3%, the ABS capacity utilization rate decreased 1.61% to 67.4%, and the PS capacity utilization rate increased 0.80% to 57.1% [8]. 3.3 Industry News - China's gold imports in April soared 73%, reaching an 11 - month high - The demand for the 20 - year US Treasury bond auction was weak, with yields on both 20 - year and 30 - year bonds rising above 5%, causing a sharp decline in US stocks - Anderson's CEO Bill Krueger said that if foreign raw materials are excluded, the mandatory biodiesel blending volume is expected to be 4.6 - 4.8 billion gallons, far lower than the previous expectation of 5.5 - 5.75 billion gallons - China and the ten ASEAN countries have completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area Version 3.0 [9] 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene spreads, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, PS inventory, EPS inventory, caprolactam weekly capacity utilization rate, phenol weekly capacity utilization rate, and aniline weekly capacity utilization rate [10][18][29]

中东地缘扰动加剧，油价强势反弹 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 日度市场总结 数据变化分析（2025年5月20日） 原油期货价格呈现分化走势：国内SC原油价格小幅走高0.56%至465.4元/ 桶，而WTI和Brent价格维持稳定，分别持平于62.15和65.48美元/桶。价差 方面，SC-Brent和SC-WTI价差分别走强0.28美元/桶，反映SC相对国际油价 的短期溢价扩大；Brent-WTI价差稳定于3.33美元/桶，显示欧美市场供需 结构未发生显著变化。SC连-连3价差大幅走弱80%至-0.9元/桶，暗示远期 合约贴水加深，市场对远期供应宽松的预期升温。 供需及库存分析 供给端：OPEC+维持增产策略，叠加美国API原油库存意外 增加249.9万桶（预期-144.9万桶），显示短期供应压力仍存。地缘政治风 险扰动加剧，以色列计划袭击伊朗核设施的消息一度推动WTI盘中涨超3%， 但伊核协议谈判若取得进展可能释放伊朗潜在供应，压制油 ...

www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 乙二醇期货主力合约价格5月20日收于4366元/吨，较前日下跌32元 （-0.73%），现货华东市场价格同步走弱至4500元/吨，跌幅1.64%。 情绪消化后理性预期回归，乙二醇盘面高位回落等待消息指引 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 供应方面，黔希煤化30万吨产能装置4月30日停车检修一个月左右，新疆天 业95万吨产能4月3日-5月6日停车检修，哈密广汇40万吨产能3月21日因管 道问题停车，预计持续到7月，中化学新材料30万吨装置3月23日停车，预 计6月初重启。扬子巴斯夫34万吨装置4月7日检修30-40天，中沙天津38万 吨装置4月21日检修45天左右，中海壳牌35万吨装置5月6日停车检修20天左 右。截至5月15日，中国大陆地区乙二醇整体开工负荷在60.51%（环比上期 下降8.48%），其中草酸催化加氢法（合成气）制乙二醇开工负荷在60.04% （环比上期下降6.71%）。5月12日-5月18日，张家港到货数量约为4.3万 吨 ...

地缘风险引发成本端油价上行，PX、PTA短线获得支撑 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 成本端，05月20日，布油主力合约收盘65.48美元/桶。WTI收62.15美元/ 桶。 需求端，05月20日，轻纺城成交总量为748.0万米，15 日平均成交为 987.53万米。 供应端，PX：中海油惠州150万吨3月29日检修50天左右，扬子石化重整检 修至5月上旬，PX有降负预期，天津石化PX计划6-7月份检修，海南炼化计 划4-5月检修，浙石化250万吨装置已重启，盛虹炼化400万吨原计划4月检 修，目前推迟至5月。PX国内装置开工率为73%，亚洲开工率为67.9%。 PTA：台化兴业150万吨5月6日检修，逸盛大连225万吨计划4月26日检修6 周，另375万吨4月21日重启。嘉兴石化150万吨计划5月中检修10天左右， 中泰石化120万吨计划5月中上复产。PTA开工率在75.6%附近。聚酯开工率 在94.2%附近。 据美国情报部门，以色列正准备袭击伊朗核设施，原油价 格快速冲高，短线重点关 ...

能源化工 通惠期货•研发产品系列 苯乙烯日报 2025 年 5 月 21 日 星期三 苯乙烯日报：地缘消息反复，警惕上游价格波动 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：5 月 20 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 1.88%，报 7580 元/吨，基差 270 元/吨（+24 元/吨）； 成本：5 月 20 日布油主力合约收盘 62.1 美元/桶（+0.1 美元/桶），WTI 原油主力合约收盘 65.5 美元/桶（+0.1 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报价 6100 元/吨（+40 元/吨）。 库存：苯乙烯样本工厂库存 21.3 万吨（-1.9 万吨），环比减少 8.2%，江 苏港口库存 5.7 万吨（-1.2 万吨），环比下降 17.2%，苯乙烯库存持续去化， 现货流动性收紧。 供应：苯乙烯检修装置逐渐回归，供应有增量预期。受部分装置重启影 响，苯乙烯周产量环比下滑 1.29%至 32.65 万吨（-0.42 万吨），工厂产能利 用率 71.3%（-0.9%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率变化不一，其中 EPS 产能利用率 62.3% （+15.0%），ABS 产能利用率 67.4%（-1.6%），PS ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The current maintenance of ethylene glycol plants has led to an expansion of supply reduction, and the supply - demand structure is relatively good. Polyester production remains at a high level. The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation exceeded market expectations, the terminal export expectation was repaired, orders were advanced, and the stocking demand may increase significantly. Under strong expectations, ethylene glycol should be treated with cautious optimism, and the actual arrival rhythm of ports should be continuously monitored [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price**: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract fell slightly by 0.39% to 4,398 yuan/ton, while the spot price in the East China market rose by 35 yuan to 4,575 yuan/ton, and the basis widened to 172 yuan/ton [2] - **Supply**: Multiple ethylene glycol production facilities are under maintenance. As of May 15, the overall ethylene glycol operating load in mainland China was 60.51% (down 8.48% from the previous period). From May 12 - 18, the planned arrival volume at major ports was about 5.5 tons [2] - **Demand**: The polyester factory load was 94.2%. The domestic weaving comprehensive operating rate was around 63.80%, up 63.80% from last week. The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 60.68%, up 0.62% from last week [3] - **Inventory**: As of May 18, the inventory at major ports in East China was about 74.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons from the previous period [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot**: The main ethylene glycol futures contract price decreased by 0.39%, the trading volume decreased by 16.16%, and the open interest decreased by 1.49%. The spot price in the East China market increased by 0.77%, and the basis increased by 10.97% [5] - **Profit**: The ethylene - based production profit decreased by 0.92%, while the coal - based production profit remained unchanged [5] - **Operating Rate**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based and oil - based operating rates, polyester factory load, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load remained unchanged [5] - **Inventory and Arrival**: The inventory at major ports in East China decreased by 4.08%, and the arrival volume increased by 26.32% [5] 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the main ethylene glycol contract, ethylene glycol production profit, and the operating rate of downstream polyester plants [6][8][10] 4. Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The ethylene glycol futures price decreased, the spot price increased, and the basis widened. The production profit was in a loss state, which may affect the future operating rate. The overall supply was stable, and the demand showed limited growth. The port inventory decreased, but the increase in arrival volume may bring subsequent pressure. Overall, ethylene glycol may maintain a volatile trend [13][15][16]

下游涤丝库存压力缓解，聚酯原料盘面下方存支撑 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 05月19日，PX 主力合约收6752.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.12%，基差为122.0 元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4776.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.04%，基差为214.0元/ 吨。 成本端，05月19日，布油主力合约收盘65.33美元/桶。WTI收61.93美元/桶。 需求端，05月19日，轻纺城成交总量为818.0万米，15 日平均成交为1005.0万 米。 供应端，PX：中海油惠州150万吨3月29日检修50天左右，扬子石化重整检修至5 月上旬，PX有降负预期，天津石化PX计划6-7月份检修，海南炼化计划4-5月检 修，浙石化250万吨装置已重启，盛虹炼化400万吨原计划4月检修，目前推迟至 5月。PX国内装置开工率为73%，亚洲开工率为67.9%。PTA：台化兴业150万吨 5月6日检修，逸盛大连225万吨计划4月26日检修6周，另375万吨4月21日重启。 嘉兴 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, the short - term trend is supply - dominated, with a "supply exceeds demand" pattern. It's recommended to maintain a bearish approach and focus on whether export recovery can support demand [3] - For styrene, it has basically recovered from pre - holiday declines. However, short - term price fluctuations are intense, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Aspects - **Price**: On May 19, the styrene main contract rose 0.45% to 7779 yuan/ton, with a basis of 246 yuan/ton (-43 yuan/ton) [2] - **Cost**: On May 19, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 62.0 dollars/barrel (+0.4 dollars/barrel), WTI at 65.4 dollars/barrel (+0.9 dollars/barrel), and East China pure benzene spot at 6155 yuan/ton (+60 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 21.3 tons (-1.9 tons), down 8.2% month - on - month; Jiangsu port inventory was 5.7 tons (-1.2 tons), down 17.2% [2] - **Supply**: Styrene maintenance devices are gradually resuming, with an expected increase in supply. Weekly production decreased 1.29% to 32.65 tons (-0.42 tons), and factory capacity utilization was 71.3% (-0.9%) [2] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. EPS was 62.3% (+15.0%), ABS 67.4% (-1.6%), and PS 57.1% (+0.8%) [2] (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: It's in a weak pattern, with a high BZ - SM near - month contract spread and adjustment pressure. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak, remaining in a "supply exceeds demand" situation. A bearish approach is recommended [3] - **Styrene**: Last week's price increase was driven by Sino - US trade relaxation, low port paper - cargo inventory, and a major factory's device maintenance. Short - term price fluctuations are large, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices - From May 16 to May 19, styrene futures rose 1.54% to 7779 yuan/ton, spot fell 0.56% to 8224 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased 14.88% to 246 yuan/ton. Pure benzene in East China rose 0.98% to 6155 yuan/ton [6] (2) Styrene & Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From May 9 to May 16, styrene output decreased 1.29% to 32.6 tons, and pure benzene output decreased 2.94% to 39.0 tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased 17.23% to 5.7 tons, and factory inventory decreased 8.17% to 21.3 tons. Pure benzene port inventory increased 2.50% to 12.3 tons [7] (3) Capacity Utilization Rates - From May 9 to May 16, the capacity utilization rate of styrene decreased 0.93 to 71.3, that of aniline decreased 6.44 to 68.9, EPS increased 14.96 to 62.3, ABS decreased 1.61 to 67.4, and PS increased 0.80 to 57.1 [8] 3. Industry News - The 1 - year LPR in May dropped 10bp to 3%, and the over - 5 - year variety dropped to 3.5% [9] - The Iranian deputy foreign minister warned that nuclear talks would fail if the US insisted on Iran stopping uranium enrichment [9] - Putin, Trump, and Zelensky made statements regarding the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts of pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, etc., with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [10][17][20]