Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current crude oil market presents a game pattern of strong reality and weak expectation. Geopolitical disturbances on the supply - side provide short - term strong support, and the destocking rhythm of refined oil in China strengthens demand resilience. However, the OPEC+ meeting maintaining production policies may weaken medium - and long - term supply constraints, and the risk of Saudi Arabia releasing idle production capacity and potential impacts of India's consumption policy adjustment form upward pressure. In the short term, the SC - WTI premium may remain high. If geopolitical risks do not escalate beyond expectations, oil prices may show a high - level oscillation pattern within a range [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Analysis - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 2, 2025, the price of the Shanghai Crude Oil (SC) main contract rose from 483.5 yuan/barrel to 490.4 yuan/barrel, a 1.43% increase. WTI and Brent prices remained unchanged at 64.61 and 68.16 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread rose from - 0.38 dollars/barrel to +0.45 dollars/barrel, a 218% increase, indicating that domestic crude oil strengthened relative to Brent. The SC - WTI spread expanded from 3.17 to 4.0 dollars/barrel, and the SC premium over WTI increased significantly. The near - far month spread (SC continuous 1 - continuous 3) rose from - 0.1 to +0.2 yuan/barrel, reflecting the tight supply expectation in the spot market [1]. - **Positions and Transactions**: Although the warehouse receipts of Chinese crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt and other varieties remained unchanged on September 2, the warehouse receipts of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 1000 tons, implying the pick - up demand of physical enterprises [1]. b. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes Analysis - **Supply Side**: The attack on Russian refineries continued to ferment, and the CDU maintenance volume in Russia reached 6.4 million tons in August, leading to a contraction in high - sulfur fuel oil supply. The attack on a refinery in a European country disrupted regional refined oil supply and strengthened the geopolitical premium. The sanctions on Yangshan Warehouse reduced the circulation inventory of crude oil in the Chinese market. However, it is necessary to be vigilant that the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend may maintain the production policy unchanged, and the potential risk of Saudi Arabia increasing production still needs attention [2]. - **Demand Side**: The commercial inventory of refined oil in China was fully destocked. The diesel inventory decreased by 2.54% month - on - month to 102.52 million barrels, reaching a three - month low, indicating strong industrial oil demand. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in major bunkering ports remained tight. The expectation of a decrease in arbitrage cargoes in Singapore in the second half of September strengthened the structural demand for the switch from high - sulfur to low - sulfur in the Asia - Pacific region. India's plan to cut gasoline vehicle consumption tax may stimulate traditional energy demand, but the competition from electric vehicles may compress long - term demand growth [2]. - **Inventory Side**: China's weekly crude oil inventory decreased by 0.21% to 209.84 million barrels, declining for the fourth consecutive week. Although the data of the US strategic crude oil reserve was not updated, combined with the recent actions of the EIA, the replenishment demand still provided support for WTI. Notably, the positive SC - Brent spread indicated that the inventory pressure in the Chinese region had eased compared with Europe [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: On September 2, 2025, the SC price was 490.40 yuan/barrel, up 1.43% from the previous day; WTI was 65.62 dollars/barrel, up 1.56%; Brent was 69.07 dollars/barrel, up 1.34%; the OPEC basket price remained unchanged at 70.98 dollars/barrel [5]. - **Spot Prices**: Various crude oil spot prices showed different degrees of increase, such as Oman rising 1.27% to 71.90 dollars/barrel, and Victory rising 1.82% to 66.60 dollars/barrel [5]. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread rose from - 0.38 to 0.45 dollars/barrel, a 218.42% increase; the SC - WTI spread expanded from 3.17 to 4.00 dollars/barrel, a 26.18% increase [5]. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index rose 0.63% to 98.32; the S&P 500 index fell 0.69% to 6,415.54 points; the DAX index fell 2.29% to 23,487.33 points; the RMB exchange rate rose 0.20% to 7.15 [5]. - **Inventory and Production**: The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.57% to 41,829,200 barrels; the Cushing inventory decreased by 3.57% to 2,263,200 barrels; the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.19% to 40,420,100 barrels; the API inventory decreased by 0.22% to 44,982,200 barrels. The US refinery weekly operating rate decreased by 2.07% to 94.60%, and the crude oil processing volume decreased by 1.91% to 1,688,000 barrels per day [5]. b. Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: The FU price was 2,847.00 yuan/ton, up 0.53% from the previous day; the LU price was 3,559.00 yuan/ton, up 2.45% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: Most fuel oil spot prices increased, such as NYMEX fuel oil IF0380 in Singapore rising 2.66% to 237.16 cents/gallon [6]. - **Paper Prices**: Some paper prices remained unchanged, while some data were not updated [6]. - **Spreads**: The China high - low sulfur spread increased by 10.90% to 712.00 yuan/ton; the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread increased by 4.22% to - 1,929.00 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 7.33% to 24.724 million barrels [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Supply - The sanctions on Yangshan Warehouse led to a tightening of supply. The willingness of short - sellers to deliver at Yangshan Warehouse decreased, and they closed their positions and left the market, resulting in the fuel oil price no longer being anchored to Yangshan Warehouse and the price center moving up. The attack on Russian refineries continued to disrupt the high - sulfur supply, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in major bunkering ports was tight [7][8]. b. Demand - India's Tata Motors proposed to cut the consumption tax on some gasoline vehicles, which would make their prices lower than those of electric vehicles, potentially stimulating traditional energy demand [9]. c. Inventory - On September 2, the warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil futures, low - sulfur fuel oil futures, fuel oil futures, and petroleum asphalt futures warehouses remained unchanged, while the petroleum asphalt factory warehouse receipts decreased by 1000 tons. China's crude oil and refined oil inventories continued to decline [10]. d. Market Information - Brazil officially applied to join the International Energy Agency (IEA). The crude oil market closed early due to holidays, and trading was light, but the price showed an oscillating upward trend. The market was dominated by positive factors, but the concern about Saudi Arabia increasing production over the weekend limited the upside of oil prices. The spot gold price broke through the $3500 mark in the Asian session, and the market expected the OPEC+ to maintain production at the meeting over the weekend [11]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the SC - WTI spread statistics, the US weekly crude oil production, the number of oil rigs in the US and Canada, etc., with data sources from WIND, EIA, etc. [12][14][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of ethylene glycol may decline slightly due to cost drag, with the upside limited by port inventory pressure and weak demand, and the downside supported by coal - based production costs. Attention should be paid to whether the September coal - chemical plant maintenance plan is implemented and the de - stocking rhythm of polyester filament inventory [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped slightly from 4,490 yuan/ton to 4,481 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%, with the intraday fluctuation range narrowing to 4,473 - 4,509 yuan/ton. The spot price in East China also dropped slightly by 5 yuan/ton to 4,540 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened by 9 yuan/ton to 69 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread rose from - 41 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, while the 5 - 9 spread fell from 91 yuan/ton to 81 yuan/ton [1] - The trading volume of the main contract increased by 10.74% to 168,000 lots, indicating increased short - term trading activity of funds, and some short - sellers may have chosen to take profits and leave the market. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 9,049 lots to 277,223 lots, declining for two consecutive days [1] - The overall operating rates of ethylene glycol from oil - based, coal - based, and total sources remained at 66.22%, with no change compared to the previous period. The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 63.43%. Weak terminal weaving orders led to no seasonal rebound in polyester sales, and the inventory pressure of filaments still existed, suppressing the rigid procurement demand for ethylene glycol [1] 2. Inventory - The inventory at the main ports in East China climbed to 48.57 tons (a week - on - week increase of 13.7%), and the inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons in a single week. The port unloading efficiency improved while the arrival volume dropped to 10.17 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 39.7%), reflecting weak actual shipments and prominent pressure of hidden inventory becoming explicit [2] 3. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the ethylene glycol main contract dropped by 0.2% to 4,481 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 10.74% to 168,271 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3.16% to 277,223 lots. The spot price in East China dropped by 0.11% to 4,540 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened by 15% to 69 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 14.63% to - 35 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 10.99% to 81 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 8% to - 46 yuan/ton. The coal - based production profit remained unchanged at - 252 yuan/ton [4] - The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol, coal - based and oil - based operating rates, polyester factory load, loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, ethylene - based and methanol - based operating rates all remained unchanged [4] - The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [4] 4. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 27, the price in the East China US dollar market was strong in the morning and weakened in the afternoon. The spot price in the Shaanxi ethylene glycol market remained stable, with the average market price around 3,990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The price in the mainstream market dropped at the opening, and the price offered by holders in the South China market was lowered to around 4,550 yuan/ton for delivery. After the US imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, international oil prices fell, and the ethylene glycol market rebounded after a decline, with the current price in East China around 4,560 yuan/ton [5] 5. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, weekly inventory statistics of ethylene glycol at the main ports in East China, and total inventory in the ethylene glycol industry [6][8][10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are facing a short - term high - level correction due to the cooling of macro - sentiment. The upside space of copper prices is limited by the high - level dollar and escalating trade frictions, and further breakthroughs require macro - level support. The focus in the near term is on US inflation and employment data before the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the final interest - rate cut decision [1][6] - It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate in the future, with the range possibly around 78,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton [34] Group 3: Summary of Each Related Section 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Variation Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: SHFE copper prices slightly declined from 79,450 yuan/ton on August 21st to 79,330 yuan/ton on August 27th, showing a narrow - range oscillation. The premium structure of copper was differentiated, with the premium of high - grade copper rising from 165 yuan/ton on August 26th to 230 yuan/ton, indicating a tight supply of high - grade copper in the spot market. The premiums of flat - water copper and wet - process copper remained low, and the supply of ordinary copper was relatively stable. The LME copper (0 - 3) discount widened to - 84.82 dollars/ton, suggesting the existence of overseas hidden inventory pressure [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: LME copper inventories decreased for four consecutive weeks, dropping to 21,287 tons on August 27th, a 10.4% decrease from the previous week, with an accelerating de - stocking speed. SHFE inventories slightly increased by 1,100 tons to 156,100 tons, indicating limited inventory accumulation pressure in China. In terms of positions, the LME copper position increased to 268,800 lots, intensifying the long - short game, but the high - level oscillation of the dollar index suppressed short - term speculative sentiment [2] b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: The expected adjustment of the recycled copper policy has led smelters to stockpile cold materials in advance, and the pressure on the rough copper processing fee indicates that the raw material supply in September may tighten. Aurubis signed a long - term contract for 75,000 tons/year of copper concentrate with Troilus Gold to hedge policy risks in the long - term raw material end. Currently, the supply of high - quality imported copper is still tight, and the circulation of wet - process copper is scarce, supporting the spot premium [3] - **Demand Side**: Downstream consumption shows structural differentiation. The demand for power/long - term order pick - up is stable, but the zero - order procurement is significantly suppressed by the high copper price. The procurement sentiment index in Shanghai monitored by SMM is only 3.16/5, and the high - price copper has a negative feedback on the demand in the construction/home appliance and other fields. The new US tax rule on small - parcel imports may further suppress the export orders of electronic consumer goods [4] - **Inventory Side**: LME inventories are accelerating de - stocking to a near - three - year low, and the domestic social inventory pressure is controllable. However, the limited replenishment of imported resources and the regional outflow of warehouse receipts strengthen the short - term spot tight pattern [5] c. Market Summary - The stockpiling of cold materials on the supply side exacerbates the spot tightness, and the continuous de - stocking of LME provides bottom support. However, the high - level dollar and escalating trade frictions suppress risk appetite, limiting the upside space of copper prices [6] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On August 27th, 2025, compared with August 21st, SMM:1 copper (premium copper) prices slightly decreased, with the premium significantly increasing; flat - water copper premiums slightly increased; wet - process copper premiums remained unchanged. LME copper prices and SHFE copper prices both had small fluctuations. LME inventories decreased, while SHFE and COMEX inventories increased [8] 3. Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The change in the recycled copper policy may affect the cold - material supply of electrolytic copper smelters, leading to a decline in the processing fees of rough copper and anode plates. The outflow of SHFE warehouse receipts in Guangdong and Jiangsu regions and the stable inventory in Shanghai. The continuous decrease in LME copper inventories may reflect supply tightness. Macroscopically, the US tariff policy and Fed personnel changes have caused market concerns. The dollar index has declined but remains at a high level, which may put pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, the supply of high - quality copper has been slightly supplemented, but wet - process copper is scarce, and the spot supply is tight. On the consumption side, the high copper price has suppressed the procurement sentiment [33] - In the market data variation analysis, the SHFE price slightly decreased, and the premium of premium copper strengthened, indicating possible spot supply tightness. In terms of position and trading volume, the LME position increased, but the SHFE inventory increased, and trading volume may shrink due to price fluctuations. In the industrial chain supply - demand and inventory analysis, on the supply side, smelters stockpile due to policy changes, and the rough copper processing fee decreases, which may affect future supply. The agreement of Aurubis increases supply, but the specific volume depends on time. On the demand side, downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs, and high copper prices suppress consumption, but there may still be demand in the power, construction and other fields. On the inventory side, LME inventories continue to decrease, showing de - stocking, while SHFE inventories slightly increase, possibly due to regional differences [34]

国内供需宽松，原油弱势震荡承压 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：8月27日，SC原油主力合约价格大幅下跌3.31%至479.7 元/桶，较前一日（496.1元/桶）回落明显；而WTI和Brent合约价格小幅走 高，分别涨0.87%和0.76%，收于63.86美元/桶和67.2美元/桶。SC对Brent 和WTI的价差显著走弱，SC-Brent价差从前一日的2.58美元/桶转为-0.22美 元/桶，显示SC相对国际油价贴水扩大，可能受人民币汇率波动或国内供需 宽松预期影响。Brent-WTI价差小幅收窄至3.34美元/桶，维持相对稳定。 持仓与成交：SC原油近月合约价差（SC连续-连3）从-4.3元/桶大幅走弱 至-10.3元/桶，反映短期市场对近月合约的看空情绪增强。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：俄罗斯原油出口扰动加剧，乌克兰对输油管道的袭击导致其港口 周度发货量降至272万桶/日的四周低点；墨西哥Dos Bocas炼油厂因天气和 停电被迫关闭，短期影响区域性供给。不过伊拉克7月出口量达1.047亿 桶，显示OPEC+成员国增产意愿仍存，后续需关注减产协议执行情况。 需求端： ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the PX, PTA, and polyester markets, highlighting that cost - side weakness has led to PX and PTA price corrections, and the focus should be on the demand - side recovery. The polyester industry chain shows a pattern of weak supply and demand but with strengthened cost support, and is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern [1][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Daily Market Summary - **PTA & PX**: On August 27, the PX main contract closed at 6940.0 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 97.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4824.0 yuan/ton, down 0.94% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 56.0 yuan/ton. The supply of PX may increase due to lower crude oil costs and the restart of some Asian plants, while PTA's supply has potential elasticity. The demand for polyester provides support for PTA, and the inventory of PTA factories is at a low level [2][3]. - **Polyester**: On August 27, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6572.0 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous trading day. The polyester industry chain shows a pattern of weak supply and demand but with strengthened cost support. The inventory structure of the industry chain is significantly differentiated, and it is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern in the short term [4]. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 0.77% to 6940 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 4.78%, and the open interest increased by 4.45%. The spot price remained unchanged. The basis increased by 35.76% [5]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 0.94% to 4824 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 16.16%, and the open interest decreased by 3.93%. The spot price remained unchanged. The basis increased by 460.00% [5]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures decreased by 0.76% to 6572 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 14.54%, and the open interest decreased by 1.60%. The spot price increased by 0.08%. The basis increased by 148.65% [5]. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Macro Dynamics**: There were various events related to the Fed, such as Trump's potential replacement of Fed officials, which may have an impact on inflation and long - term interest rates. Vietnam canceled the state monopoly on gold bar production [7]. - **Supply - Demand (Demand)**: On August 27, the total turnover of the Light Textile City was 593.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.41% [8]. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes multiple charts related to the PX, PTA, and short - fiber markets, such as futures prices, basis, spot prices, capacity utilization, and inventory days [9][11][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern. The marginal improvement on the supply side and the insufficient realization of the peak - season demand on the demand side exert downward pressure, but the support comes from the resilience of new energy vehicle demand and inventory reduction. The resumption progress of Jiangxi mines and the change in downstream restocking rhythm should be closely monitored, and the new energy vehicle sales data in September may be the key variable to break the current balance [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes - On August 27, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 78,860 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.2% from the previous trading day, with short - term directional divergence. The basis was 2,640 yuan/ton, a slight weakening of 40 yuan compared to the previous day, and the basis center in the past week showed a downward trend, indicating that the downward pressure on the spot price was transmitted to the futures market [1]. - The main contract's open interest increased slightly by 0.52% to 351,000 lots, while the trading volume significantly rebounded by 30.4% to 729,000 lots, indicating intensified short - term capital games and fierce competition between long and short sides around key price levels [1] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, reaching 66.41% in the week of August 22. The accelerated release of lithium production from salt lakes partially offset the impact of the suspension of lithium mica mines in Yichun, Jiangxi. However, potential supply disruptions due to the re - application for mining licenses by Jiangxi mines before the end of September should be noted [2]. - Demand side: Downstream demand was divided. According to the Passenger Car Association, the year - on - year growth rates of new energy vehicle retail and wholesale in August were 9% and 18% respectively, indicating demand resilience. However, the cathode material market was weak, with the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate dropping for four consecutive weeks to 35,590 yuan/ton, the price of ternary materials remaining stable, and lithium hexafluorophosphate remaining flat for three consecutive weeks. Mid - stream procurement became more cautious, and the stocking demand weakened [2]. - Inventory and warrants: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly by 713 tons to 141,500 tons, but it remained at a relatively high level in the past five weeks [2] c. Market Summary - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern. The marginal improvement on the supply side and the insufficient realization of the peak - season demand on the demand side exert downward pressure, but the support comes from the resilience of new energy vehicle demand and inventory reduction. The resumption progress of Jiangxi mines and the change in downstream restocking rhythm should be closely monitored, and the new energy vehicle sales data in September may be the key variable to break the current balance [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased from 79,020 yuan/ton to 78,860 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.2%. The basis decreased from 2,680 yuan/ton to 2,640 yuan/ton, a weakening of 1.49%. The open interest of the main contract increased by 0.52% to 351,322 lots, and the trading volume increased significantly by 30.39% to 729,645 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.24% to 81,500 yuan/ton. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.08% to 35,590 yuan/ton, while the prices of ternary materials and lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [5] - The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 63.92% to 66.41%, an increase of 3.9%. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.5% to 141,543 tons. The prices of some battery cells showed small fluctuations, with the cobalt - acid lithium cell price increasing by 3.6% [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Spot Market Quotes - On August 27, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 81,671 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 79,300 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to pre - stocking by some downstream material factories, the procurement scale this week was smaller than last week. The current downstream procurement attitude is cautious, and they are waiting for further price drops. During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the downstream demand has certain rigid support, and the short - term spot price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain relatively high and continue to fluctuate within a range [6] b. Downstream Consumption Situation - From August 1 - 17, the retail volume of the national new energy passenger vehicle market was 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 12%. The retail penetration rate was 58.0%, and the cumulative retail volume this year was 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28%. The wholesale volume of the national new energy passenger vehicle market was 474,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 18% and a month - on - month increase of 10%. The wholesale penetration rate was 56.4%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 8.108 million units, a year - on - year increase of 34% [7] c. Industry News - Since the official suspension of the Ningde Times' Jiangxi Yichun Jianxiawo mining area on August 10, the "butterfly effect" has spread throughout the industry chain [8]. - On August 18, Lanxiao Technology won the bid for the adsorption system of the expansion and transformation project of the comprehensive utilization of old brine lithium extraction from the Lop Nur Salt Lake of Xinjiang Guotou Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., with a bid amount of 35.7712 million yuan. This project will help the company improve its market share and technical control ability in the salt lake lithium extraction industry [9]. - On August 15, the Jianxiawo mining area of Ningde Times stopped production due to the expiration of the mining license. Eight local mines in Yichun need to re - apply for mining licenses before September 30 this year [9] 4. Appendix: Large - Model Inference Process - Market data analysis: The main contract price decreased slightly, the basis weakened, the open interest increased slightly, and the trading volume increased significantly, indicating intensified market competition between long and short sides [30]. - Industry chain analysis: On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate increased, but the suspension of the Yichun mining area may cause supply shortages, which may be partially offset by new salt lake lithium extraction projects. On the demand side, new energy vehicle sales increased, but the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased, indicating more cautious downstream procurement. The inventory decreased slightly, which may support the price [30][31][32]. - Price trend judgment: In the next one to two weeks, the market may maintain a low - level volatile pattern. The pressure comes from increased supply and demand hesitation, but the inventory decline may limit the decline [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the copper market may remain oscillating at a high level, with the core drivers being the marginal weakening of supply - demand and the differentiation of macro - sentiment. The upward space for copper prices is limited due to the supply - side relief of tightness expectations, demand - side drag from high - price suppression of procurement and weak terminal orders, and the suppression of risk appetite by the rebound of the US dollar [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On August 25, the SHFE main contract closed at 79,360 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.11% from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premium and discount, the premium of premium copper dropped to 165 yuan/ton, that of flat - water copper decreased to 95 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - process copper dropped by 50% to 15 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) maintained a discount of 78.38 US dollars/ton, with weak support at the spot end [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: LME inventory continuously declined, reaching 22,917 tons on August 25, a new low in nearly a month, while domestic SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 155,000 tons. The narrowing of import losses to 250 yuan/ton repaired the inverted spread between the domestic and foreign markets, which may limit the activity of arbitrage funds [2]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: There are both short - term disturbances and long - term increments. Codelco resumed production at the El Teniente copper mine, strengthening the expectation of supply recovery in Chile. In China, Tibet Summit's copper production increased by 29.9% year - on - year, but Xingye Yinxing's copper production decreased by 44.2% year - on - year, showing a differentiation in mine expansion. Reduced import arrivals made the recent supply tight, but the gradual replenishment of domestic electrolytic copper may ease the gap [3]. - **Demand Side**: There is a structural differentiation in domestic demand, and the suppression effect of high copper prices is significant. The domestic sales of air conditioners increased by 14.3% year - on - year, and the computing power infrastructure drove copper use in the intelligent field. However, the weak orders of cable enterprises and the 5.44% decrease in the finished product inventory of refined copper rods reflected the insufficient carrying capacity of the real economy. The weakening of export demand further restricted the consumption elasticity [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The mainstream copper inventory in China dropped to 123,000 tons on August 25, but SMM predicted that the rebound of import arrivals this week and the consumption suppression by high prices would drive the inventory to rebound month - on - month. The LME inventory overseas continued to decline, but the COMEX inventory reached 272,500 short tons, and the pressure of hidden inventory still needed to be vigilant [5]. Market Summary - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the copper market may remain oscillating at a high level, with the core drivers being the marginal weakening of supply - demand and the differentiation of macro - sentiment. The supply - side relief of tightness expectations and the demand - side drag, along with the suppression of risk appetite by the rebound of the US dollar, limit the upward space for copper prices [6]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - On August 26, 2025, the price of SMM:1 copper was 79,780 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase from August 25. The premiums of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper all decreased, with the wet - process copper's premium dropping by 50%. The SHFE price was 79,360 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decrease from August 25. The LME inventory decreased by 830 tons, a 3.5% decline [8]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - As of August 25, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 0.87 million tons month - on - month to 12.30 million tons, and it is expected to rebound this week. Codelco announced the resumption of production at some mines in Chile. In July 2025, China's copper product output was 2.169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. Last week, some refined copper rod enterprises reduced production due to maintenance, with raw material inventory decreasing by 2.31% and finished product inventory decreasing by 5.44%. The ICSG reported a global copper surplus of 36,000 tons in June [9]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [10][12][14][15][19][22][24][28][29][32] Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - The analysis of copper futures market data includes market data (price and basis changes, inventory changes), industry chain supply - demand (supply increase from mine resumption and domestic production, demand affected by high prices and export decline), and price trend judgment (high - level oscillation affected by supply, demand, and macro factors such as the US dollar and crude oil). The copper price is expected to be in the range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan [36][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the oil price correction, the PX market remains strong due to increased supply elasticity in the short - term [2] - The PTA market faces supply - side pressure in the long - run, and its demand may be negatively affected by weak terminal orders [3] - The polyester market shows a weak recovery in terminal demand, but there are concerns about inventory accumulation suppressing profit margins [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA&PX - On August 26, the PX主力合约 closed at 6994.0 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 162.0 yuan/ton. The PTA主力合约 closed at 4870.0 yuan/ton, up 0.16%, with a basis of 10.0 yuan/ton [3] - Cost - end: On August 26, the Brent oil主力合约 closed at 68.2 dollars/barrel, and WTI at 64.74 dollars/barrel [3] - Demand - end: On August 26, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 547.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 514.93 million meters [3] - Supply - end: The PX supply side faces loosening pressure, and the cost support weakens during the international oil price decline. The PTA supply side has short - term positive factors but long - term pressure [3] - Demand - end: The downstream polyester start - up is at a low level, and the terminal order improvement is limited. The contradiction between high polyester start - up and weak terminals remains [3] - Inventory - end: The current PTA social inventory is decreasing, but it may turn to inventory accumulation if demand does not improve significantly [4] 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 26, the short - fiber主力合约 closed at 6622.0 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous trading day. The East China market spot price was 6585.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5] - Supply - side: From August 18 to August 26, PX and PTA futures prices showed an upward trend, with PX rising 234 yuan/ton (+3.46%) and PTA rising 124 yuan/ton (+2.61%) [5] - Demand - side: The 15 - day moving average trading volume of the China Light Textile City increased from 482.73 million meters to 514.93 million meters (+6.67%), indicating a weak recovery in terminal demand [5] - Inventory - side: The polyester short - fiber inventory is 6.65 days, higher than the five - year average of 4.96 days (+34.1%), while the polyester filament inventories are generally lower than historical averages [5] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The主力合约 price, trading volume, and open interest all increased on August 26 compared to the previous day [6] - PX spot: The China main port CFR price remained unchanged, while the South Korea FOB price increased slightly [6] - PTA futures: The主力合约 price, trading volume, and open interest all increased, and the basis decreased [6] - PTA spot: The China main port CFR price remained unchanged [6] - Short - fiber futures: The主力合约 price, trading volume, and open interest all increased, and the basis decreased significantly [6] - Short - fiber spot: The East China market mainstream price remained unchanged [6] - Other industrial chain prices: Most prices remained stable, with slight changes in some products such as polyester bottle chips [6][7] - Processing spreads: The naphtha processing spread increased, while the PTA processing spread decreased slightly [7] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total volume increased, with short - fiber fabric trading volume rising significantly and long - fiber fabric trading volume decreasing [7] - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [7] - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester short - fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY all decreased [7] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - Multiple statements were made regarding the Fed's possible interest - rate cuts and the geopolitical situation, which may affect the market sentiment [8] 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On August 26, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 547.0 million meters, a 1.11% increase from the previous day [9] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts related to PX, PTA, short - fiber futures and spot prices, basis, capacity utilization, processing profits, and trading volumes [10][12][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report The short - term trend of crude oil is expected to be weak with oscillations, and attention should be paid to the persistence of geopolitical events. The supply side presents a mix of positive and negative factors, and the demand side is at the end of the peak season with refinery profits under pressure. The significant inventory build - up and the deepening of the contango structure intensify the pressure on near - term prices. The upside potential of oil prices is restricted by inventory pressure and marginal supply increase. If Russia's export plan is actually realized or the geopolitical premium fades, oil prices may continue the weak oscillatory trend, with the short - term support for WTI at $62 - 63 per barrel and resistance at $65 per barrel [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: As of August 26, the SC crude oil continuous contract price slightly declined to 496.1 yuan per barrel, up 0.65% from the previous day, but closed at 487 yuan per barrel at night, down 2.19% from the day session. WTI and Brent main contracts fell 2.21% to $63.31 and $66.69 per barrel respectively. The SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads strengthened to $2.58 and $5.96 per barrel respectively, and the Brent - WTI spread slightly narrowed to $3.38 per barrel. The SC far - month contango (spread between contract 1 and contract 3) widened to - 4.3 yuan per barrel, indicating increasing pressure on the spot side [2] - **持仓与成交**: The SC crude oil main contract fluctuated sharply, with prices rising first and then falling, and the night - session decline exceeded 2%. The geopolitical disturbances and Fed policy expectations drove capital fluctuations. The medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 954,000 barrels to 5.721 million barrels on August 26, and fuel oil warehouse receipts also increased by 26,600 tons, reflecting the surplus pressure in the physical market [3] 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **供给端**: Iraq's crude oil exports in July reached 104.7 million barrels (3.38 million barrels per day). Russia planned to increase its western port crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day in August, but 17% of its refining capacity (1.1 million barrels per day) was disrupted by Ukrainian drone attacks. Iran's exports declined in August due to US sanctions and logistics constraints, and Alberta in Canada sought investment in the Japanese refining industry [4] - **需求端**: The interruption of Russia's refining capacity and the seasonal peak in gasoline demand may suppress the actual increase in crude oil re - exports. Global refinery margins remained low, and attention should be paid to the trends of US strategic reserves and the end of the seasonal demand in the Northern Hemisphere [5] - **库存端**: US Cushing and commercial crude oil inventories continued to accumulate. The medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts increased significantly, and fuel oil warehouse receipts also rose, reflecting the surplus pressure in the spot market. The interruption of Russian refining may indirectly increase overseas crude oil inventory pressure [6] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **期货价格**: SC price was 496.1 yuan per barrel, WTI was $63.31 per barrel, and Brent was $66.69 per barrel. OPEC's basket price remained unchanged at $70.45 per barrel [9] - **现货价格**: Various crude oil spot prices showed different changes, with Oman up 0.64%, Shengli up 0.61%, etc. [9] - **价差**: The SC - Brent spread widened to $2.58 per barrel, the SC - WTI spread to $5.96 per barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread slightly narrowed to $3.38 per barrel [9] - **其他资产**: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and RMB exchange rate also had corresponding changes [9] - **库存**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.41%, Cushing inventory increased by 1.82%, and US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.06% [9] - **开工**: The US refinery weekly operating rate was 96.6%, up 0.21% [9] 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **期货价格**: FU was 2,880 yuan per ton, down 0.93%; LU was 3,529 yuan per ton, up 0.09%; NYMEX fuel oil was 228.59 cents per gallon, down 2.71% [10] - **现货价格**: Different fuel oil spot prices had various changes, such as IF0380 in Singapore up 2.71% [10] - **纸货价**: High - sulfur 180 and 380 in Singapore (near - month) showed slight declines [10] - **价差**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread was not available, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread widened to 649 yuan per ton [10] - **Platts**: Platts (380CST) and Platts (180CST) prices increased [10] - **库存**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 6.53% [10] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Supply - Iraq's oil exports in July reached 104.7 million barrels. Russia planned to increase its western port crude oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day in August, but there were uncertainties due to drone attacks and maintenance. Iran's exports declined in August, and Canada's Alberta province considered investing in the Japanese refining industry [11][12] 3.3.2 Demand Ukrainian attacks disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity, and there was a shortage of gasoline in some regions due to seasonal peak demand [13] 3.3.3 Inventory Low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures receipts remained unchanged, medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 954,000 barrels, and fuel oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 26,600 tons [14] 3.3.4 Market Information As of 2:30 closing, the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.21%, the Shanghai silver main contract fell 0.30%, and the SC crude oil main contract fell 2.19%. Trump's dismissal of the Fed governor increased concerns about the Fed's independence and enhanced the expectation of interest - rate cuts [14][15] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., to visually display the industry data [16][20][22]

成本端回调打击盘面，MEG整理等待向上突破时机 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差：乙二醇主力合约价格下跌19元/吨至4490元/吨，跌幅 0.42%，现货华东价格同步下跌10元/吨至4545元/吨，但基差从31元/吨扩 大至50元/吨，显示期货市场悲观情绪更为显著。持仓量连续四日攀升至 286272手（增幅6.34%），而成交量下降18%至151958手，暗示空头套保或 投机力量增强。 持仓与成交：近期主力合约持仓持续累积但成交下滑，表明当前市场分歧 加大但流动性边际走弱。跨期价差方面，1-5价差走扩至-41元/吨，远期贴 水结构延续，反映市场对中长期供需矛盾仍存担忧。 供给端：国内乙二醇总体开工率维持66.22%的阶段性高位，油制与煤制装 置负荷分别持稳于67.11%、65.12%，装置开工近期小幅收缩叠加进口到港 量回落，短期供应压力未进一步放大。 需求端：聚酯工厂负荷持平于89.42%，江浙织机负荷维持63.43%，终 ...