1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The prices of gold and silver were boosted by Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, which weakened the US dollar index and increased global market risk aversion. Meanwhile, the tax reform bill promoted by US President Trump in Congress raised concerns about the expansion of the fiscal deficit. Trump's tariff threat on Friday further boosted precious metal prices [3][6]. - The US - EU trade negotiation is ongoing. Trump initially claimed to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting from June 1, but later postponed the deadline to July 9. Japan is considering accepting a US tariff reduction, and India and the US are discussing a "three - stage" trade agreement expected to reach a temporary agreement by early July [3][6]. - Although the US - China trade relationship has recently eased, there is still great uncertainty in the trade negotiations between the US and other economies such as the EU and Japan. The global economic outlook remains unclear, and geopolitical risks occur frequently. Investors tend to seek more stable asset allocations, so the short - term gold price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [3][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 780.10 | 28.30 | 3.76 | 220512 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 775.72 | 21.63 | 2.87 | 48148 | 210456 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3357.70 | 152.40 | 4.75 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 8263 | 162 | 2.00 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 8244 | 131 | 1.61 | 372524 | 3454112 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 33.64 | 1.21 | 3.73 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The precious metal prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend last week due to Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, the tax reform bill, and Trump's tariff threat [3][6]. - The US - EU trade negotiation is in progress. Trump postponed the tariff deadline for the EU to July 9. Japan may accept a US tariff reduction, and India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by early July [3][6]. - The tax reform bill led by Trump will increase the federal debt by about $3.8 trillion in the next decade, causing concerns about fiscal sustainability and global bond market fluctuations. The bill will face challenges in the Senate vote [6]. - Fed officials emphasized patience in policy adjustment. The market expects a 90% probability of an ECB interest rate cut next month [6][7]. - Geopolitical risks include the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiation and the "Gideon's Sword" operation by the Israeli Defense Forces [7]. - This week, focus on US economic data such as GDP and PCE, and events like the US trade negotiations, the Fed's May meeting minutes, and speeches by Fed officials [8]. 3.3 Important Data Information - In May, the US manufacturing PMI reached a three - month high of 52.3, and the service PMI was 52.3, with new orders growing at the fastest rate in a year. However, manufacturing export orders contracted for the second consecutive month, and the employment index declined [9]. - As of the week ending May 17, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 2000 to 227,000, a four - week low, indicating a stable employment market [9]. - In May, the eurozone manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 49.2, but the service PMI dropped to 48.9, a 16 - month low, dragging down the composite PMI to 49.5. The money market increased bets on further ECB interest rate cuts this year [9]. - In April, US new home sales reached the highest level since February 2022, with an annualized growth of nearly 11% to 743,000 units [9]. - In April, Japan's core CPI rose 3.5% year - on - year, and the price of rice increased by 98%, which may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in October [10]. - In April, China's gold imports reached 127.5 metric tons, a 73% increase, a new high in 11 months [10]. - As of May 20, the total gold holdings of precious metal ETFs were 922.46 tons, an increase of 3.73 tons from last week. The silver holdings of ishare were 14217.50 tons, an increase of 302.60 tons from last week [10]. 3.4 Relevant Data Charts - The content provides multiple charts including SHFE and COMEX precious metal prices, inventory changes, non - commercial net long positions, and the relationship between precious metal prices and other economic indicators such as the US dollar, inflation, and interest rates [14][15][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After two weeks of weak oscillations, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal stopped falling and rebounded. The increase in the oil mill operating rate and the expected increase in supply have been fully factored into the market. Concerns about potential production cuts in Argentina due to heavy rain and the possible delay of the sowing progress in the US Midwest due to heavy rain on the 20th have boosted market sentiment. Additionally, the forecast of dry weather during the US soybean growing season has attracted long - position funds, adding a weather premium to the market [4][7]. - The expected production cut in Argentina due to storms and the short - term heavy rain in the US soybean - growing areas have limited impacts. Attention should be paid to the weather changes during the growing season, and the US soybean market is in a volatile range. With the increase in the oil mill operating rate, the supply is increasing, putting pressure on the spot prices, which continue to decline. However, the long - position sentiment in the futures market has improved, strengthening the support at the lower level. Overall, after the rebound, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short term [4][11]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean July contract rose 9.75 to 1060.75 cents per bushel, a 0.93% increase. The DCE soybean meal 09 contract rose 53 to 2952 yuan per ton, an 1.83% increase. The South China soybean meal spot price fell 120 to 2940 yuan per ton, a 3.92% decrease. The CZCE rapeseed meal 09 contract rose 43 to 2556 yuan per ton, a 1.71% increase. The Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 60 to 2430 yuan per ton, a 2.53% increase [4][5][7]. - The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans increased by 12 to 446 dollars per ton, a 2.76% increase, and that of US Gulf soybeans increased by 6 to 463 dollars per ton, a 1.31% increase. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market decreased by 40.6 to 43.13 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of May 18, 2025, the US soybean planting progress was 66%, higher than the market expectation of 65%, and the emergence rate was 34%. As of the week of May 20, about 16% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought [8]. - As of the week of May 15, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 21.8 tons, lower than the market expectation. The net export sales of US soybeans in the current market year increased by 30.8 tons. China did not purchase US soybeans that week, and the cumulative purchase volume in the current year was 2248 tons [8][9]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.94 dollars per bushel. The 2024/2025 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 98.9%, and the Argentine soybean harvest progress was 74.3% [9][10]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 586.83 tons, an increase of 51.92 tons from the previous week, and the national port soybean inventory was 683.6 tons, an increase of 60.2 tons from the previous week. The oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 12.17 tons, an increase of 2.05 tons from the previous week [10]. - As of the week of May 23, 2025, the national daily average soybean meal trading volume was 39.344 tons, and the daily average pick - up volume was 17.934 tons. The main oil mills' crushing volume was 220.93 tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 5.73 days [10]. Industry News - Brazil exported 7,836,693.24 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of May, with a daily average export volume 11.34% higher than that of May last year [12]. - Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast was adjusted to 1.697 billion tons, the soybean export volume forecast was slightly reduced to 1.082 billion tons, and the soybean crushing volume forecast was 57.5 million tons [12][13]. - Due to recent storms, the 2024/25 soybean crop in Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, may suffer "significant losses", and there are still 730,000 hectares of soybean crops not harvested [14]. - A commodity research institution maintained the forecast of the US 2025/26 soybean production at 117 million tons, but the long - term summer weather outlook is not optimistic, and the soil moisture in the central soybean belt is a major risk factor [15]. - The US government plans to grant 163 small refineries exemptions, which may reduce the actual mandatory blending volume of US biodiesel and cause a nearly 5 - million - ton decline in the US oil industry's consumption [16]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the freight rate, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the soybean meal main contract trend, the spot - futures price difference, the management fund's CBOT net position, the regional soybean meal spot price, the soybean meal M 9 - 1 inter - month price difference, the US soybean - growing area precipitation and temperature, the Argentine soybean harvest progress, the US soybean's cumulative export sales volume to the world and China, the US soybean's weekly net sales volume and export volume, the US oil mill's crushing profit, the soybean meal's weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume, the port and oil mill soybean inventory, the oil mill's weekly crushing volume and operating rate, and the oil mill's soybean meal inventory and feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days [17][19][22][23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The news about Guinea's mines still has uncertainties, and the unstable raw material supply is expected to support the alumina price to remain strong. However, after the significant increase in the alumina price, the profit margin has recovered, and the production willingness of enterprises has increased. There may be复产 in the future, so the production changes of alumina enterprises need to be closely monitored. The short - term supply - demand situation of alumina is tight, and the price remains favorable, but the increase may be limited [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From May 16th to May 23rd, the alumina futures (active) rose from 2890 yuan/ton to 3169 yuan/ton, an increase of 279 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot rose from 2991 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, an increase of 229 yuan/ton; the spot premium decreased from 46 yuan/ton to - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB remained at 370 US dollars/ton; the import profit and loss increased from - 338.93 yuan/ton to - 91.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 247.5 yuan/ton; the exchange warehouse inventory decreased from 197,535 tons to 156,999 tons, a decrease of 40,536 tons; the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons; the prices of domestic bauxite in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou remained stable, while the Guinea CIF increased from 70 US dollars/ton to 72 US dollars/ton [3] Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 9.96% last week, closing at 3169 yuan/ton. The national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3220 yuan/ton on Friday, up 229 yuan/ton from last week. The spot circulation volume of domestic bauxite is limited, and the alumina enterprises have no plan to adjust the ore purchase price this week. The price continues to run stably. For imported bauxite, the future development of the affected mining areas in Guinea is still unclear, and it is necessary to further monitor whether the subsequent development of this event will worsen the bauxite supply situation. In the short term, the price of imported bauxite is clearly supported by positive factors, and the price center may rise. On the supply side, alumina enterprises are both reducing and increasing production. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi are reducing production, while some previously overhauled enterprises have ended their overhauls, and new northern production capacities are releasing output. The operating production capacity of alumina has slightly increased, the supply change is limited, and the spot is still in a short - term tight situation. As of May 22nd, China's alumina production capacity was 112.2 million tons, the operating production capacity was 86.35 million tons, and the operating rate was 76.96%. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong is continuing to transfer to Yunnan. In addition, the production capacity in Guangxi and Sichuan is being restored. Overall, the operating production capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has continued to increase this week, and the demand for alumina has slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 130,658 tons to 157,000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons [4] Market Outlook - Last week, the mining end in Guinea experienced a process of escalating and then easing disturbances. At the beginning of the week, the Guinea government designated multiple mining licenses as strategic reserve areas, making the resumption of production in the suspended mining areas in Guinea more uncertain. Near the weekend, there was news that the mine owners whose bauxite mining licenses were revoked in Guinea could resume production by paying the local development contribution or participating in the re - bidding. On the supply side, alumina enterprises both reduced and increased production last week. Some alumina plants in Shanxi reduced production, while some previously overhauled enterprises released output after resuming production. The theoretical operating production capacity increased slightly compared with the previous week. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was basically stable, and there was still a slight gap in the theoretical production capacity matching last week. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory continued to decrease by 130,658 tons to 157,000 tons last week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons. Overall, the news about Guinea's mines still has uncertainties, and the unstable raw material supply is expected to support the alumina price to remain strong. However, after the significant increase in the alumina price, the profit margin has recovered, and the production willingness of enterprises has increased. There may be复产 in the future, so the production changes of alumina enterprises need to be closely monitored. The short - term supply - demand situation of alumina is tight, and the price remains favorable, but the increase may be limited [6] Industry News - The issue of the Guinea government revoking the mining licenses of some mines has further escalated. On the evening of Tuesday, May 20, 2025, the transitional authorities read out a decree on national television, deciding to classify multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas, including concessions, industrial and semi - industrial mining licenses, and exploration licenses for bauxite, iron, gold, diamonds, and graphite. In the first quarter of this year, the characteristic industries in Bozhou District, Zunyi City showed new vitality. The electrolytic aluminum output exceeded 100,000 tons, and the output value of the bauxite industrial chain increased. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in April 2025, China's alumina output was 7.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%; the cumulative output from January to April was 29.919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. In April, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%; the cumulative output from January to April was 14.793 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In April, the aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%; the cumulative output from January to April was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In April, the aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%; the cumulative output from January to April was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7% [7] Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina current - continuous one inter - period spreads, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][10][11][12]

2025 年 5 月 26 日 需求预期下滑，工业硅延续寻底 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 工业硅周报 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 ⚫ 上周工业硅延续探底，主因宏观利好情绪充分消化，光伏 供给侧改革渐进式兑现令硅料中长期需求前景出现下滑。 供应来看，新疆地区开工率维持5成附近，川滇地区开工 率偏低，内蒙和甘肃产量环比下滑，供应端维持收紧状态； 从需求侧来看，多晶硅后续订单增量不足但好在硅片电池 环节已有企稳迹象，硅 ...

铅周报 2025 年 5 月 26 日 累库压力显现 铅价偏弱调整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价偏弱调整。宏观面看，特朗普减税 法案强化了市场对美国财政的担忧，市场风险偏好降 温，有色板块承压。 要点 基本面看，内外周度铅精矿加工费均环比小幅回落， 原料紧张态势强化，高富含矿仍是一矿难求。粗铅到 港，部分缓解原料紧张，同时再生铅炼厂承受较大亏 损压力下调采 ...

2025 年 5 月 26 日 抢出口预期尚未兑现 镍价低位震荡 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 镍周报 ⚫ 宏观面，美国经济数据好于预期，市场预期持续修 正。美联储多位官员仍表示当前经济的不确定性较 强，对就业市场表现担忧。部分官员称，若关税政策 能够稳定，美联储有望在下半年开启降息。 ⚫ 基本面：印尼镍矿内贸价格维持高升水，菲律宾部分 6月成交价环比持平，成本支撑尤在。需求端尚未 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US soft data improved, with the May Markit manufacturing and services PMIs rebounding significantly above 52, and the initial jobless claims lower than expected. The market risk appetite slightly increased, and the US stocks showed a weak recovery. The long - term US Treasury yields first rose and then fell after the Trump tax - reform bill passed the House of Representatives. Gold prices rose and then fell, oil prices回调 due to OPEC +'s expected production increase in July, and copper prices dropped to a 3 - week low [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market adjusted with shrinking volume, and the bond market remained weakly volatile. China had positive diplomatic interactions, such as the call between Xi Jinping and the French President and the talks between Chinese and Dutch foreign ministers [3]. - For different commodities, the prices of precious metals are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term; copper prices will maintain range - bound oscillations; aluminum prices will continue to oscillate above 20,000 yuan; alumina is expected to be strong but attention should be paid to the rhythm; zinc prices are expected to be weak; lead prices will continue to be weakly volatile; tin prices will continue to adjust; industrial silicon prices will maintain a low - level weak oscillation; lithium carbonate prices can be shorted on high; nickel prices will maintain a low - level oscillation; oil prices should be observed in the short term; steel prices will oscillate; iron ore prices will mainly oscillate; double - meal prices will oscillate; and palm oil prices will oscillate [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][17][18][19][20][22][23][25]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - **Copper**: SHFE copper closed at 77,920 yuan/ton, down 0.23%; LME copper closed at 9,520 dollars/ton, up 0.34% [26]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum closed at 20,210 yuan/ton, up 0.10%; LME aluminum closed at 2,457 dollars/ton, down 0.77% [26]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina closed at 3,216 yuan/ton, down 0.92% [26]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc closed at 22,245 yuan/ton, down 1.48%; LME zinc closed at 2,705 dollars/ton, up 0.75% [26]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead closed at 16,685 yuan/ton, down 1.27%; LME lead closed at 1,964 dollars/ton, down 0.73% [26]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel closed at 123,400 yuan/ton, up 0.10%; LME nickel closed at 15,490 dollars/ton, down 0.90% [26]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin closed at 264,780 yuan/ton, down 1.10%; LME tin closed at 32,430 dollars/ton, down 1.05% [26]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 3,323.30 dollars/ounce, up 0.20%; SHFE silver closed at 8,301.00 yuan/kg, up 0.35%; COMEX silver closed at 33.18 dollars/ounce, down 1.18% [26]. - **Steel Products**: SHFE rebar closed at 3,061 yuan/ton, unchanged; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,210 yuan/ton, down 0.03% [26]. - **Iron Ore**: DCE iron ore closed at 727.0 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [26]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: DCE coking coal closed at 827.5 yuan/ton, down 1.72%; DCE coke closed at 1,406.5 yuan/ton, down 0.78% [26]. - **Industrial Silicon**: GFEX industrial silicon closed at 7,880.0 yuan/ton, up 0.19% [26]. - **Soybean and Meal**: CBOT soybeans closed at 1,067.8 yuan/ton, up 0.57%; DCE soybean meal closed at 2,939.0 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; CZCE rapeseed meal closed at 2,562.0 yuan/ton, up 0.39% [26]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: On May 22, SHFE copper's main contract was 77,920 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan from May 21; LME copper's 3 - month contract was 9,519.5 dollars/ton, up 32.5 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 2,300 tons [27]. - **Nickel**: On May 22, SHFE nickel's main contract was 123,400 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan from May 21; LME nickel's 3 - month contract was 15,490 dollars/ton, down 140 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 876 tons [27]. - **Zinc**: On May 22, SHFE zinc's main contract was 22,245 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan from May 21; LME zinc was 2,704.5 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 1,650 tons [30]. - **Lead**: On May 22, SHFE lead's main contract was 16,685 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan from May 21; LME lead was 1,978.5 dollars/ton, down 8 dollars. LME inventory increased by 36,375 tons [30]. - **Aluminum**: On May 22, SHFE aluminum's continuous - third contract was 20,100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from May 21; LME aluminum's 3 - month contract was 2,456.5 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons [30]. - **Alumina**: On May 22, SHFE alumina's main contract was 3,216 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from May 21; the national alumina spot average price was 3,171 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [30]. - **Tin**: On May 22, SHFE tin's main contract was 264,780 yuan/ton, down 2,950 yuan from May 21; LME tin was 32,430 dollars/ton, down 345 dollars. LME inventory decreased by 5 tons [30]. - **Precious Metals**: On May 22, SHFE gold was 780.1 yuan, unchanged; SHFE silver was 8,301.00 yuan/kg, unchanged. COMEX gold and silver also had no price changes [30]. - **Rebar**: On May 22, the rebar's main contract was 3,061 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai spot price was 3,190 yuan/ton, unchanged [32]. - **Iron Ore**: On May 22, the iron ore's main contract was 727.0 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan from May 21; the PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 760 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [32]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: On May 22, the coke's main contract was 1,406.5 yuan/ton, down 11.0 yuan from May 21; the coking coal's main contract was 827.5 yuan/ton, down 14.5 yuan [32]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On May 22, the lithium carbonate's main contract was 6.22, up 0.10 from May 21; the electric - carbon spot price was 6.48, unchanged [32]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On May 22, the industrial silicon's main contract was 7,880 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan from May 21; the average price of East China's oxygen - containing 553 was 8,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [32]. - **Soybean and Meal**: On May 22, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 444, up 9.0 from May 21; the spot price of Tianjin's soybean meal was 3,000 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The uncertainty of US fiscal policy, sovereign credit rating adjustment, and geopolitical issues have increased market risk aversion, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices, but the upward space is still to be observed [3][4] - The weakening of the US dollar index and China's central bank's continuous introduction of loose policies support copper prices to oscillate at a high level, and it is expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short term [5][6] - Aluminum prices are under pressure to rise further at high levels, and are expected to oscillate in the short term due to factors such as downstream consumption waiting and seasonal inventory accumulation [7] - Alumina is expected to continue its favorable trend due to uncertainties in the ore end and improved supply - demand fundamentals [8][9] - Zinc prices are boosted by the decline of the US dollar, but the upward space is limited due to the expected release of supply in the second half of the year [10][11] - Lead prices are weakly oscillating due to the marginal weakening of the supply - demand balance, with improved supply and lackluster consumption [12][13] - Tin prices are expected to continue to run strongly in the short term, supported by the decline of the US dollar and restricted by raw material supply [15] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a low - level weak oscillation due to increased inventory pressure and weak fundamentals [16][17] - Lithium carbonate prices may rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at high levels [18][19] - Nickel prices are oscillating due to lack of market guidance, with strong support from the ore end and weak demand [20] - Crude oil prices are oscillating, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Iran - nuclear agreement and the results of the OPEC+ meeting [21] - Steel prices are expected to oscillate due to weak supply and demand in the steel market [22][23] - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate mainly, with a decline in port inventory and a relatively loose supply [24] - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue weak oscillations due to factors such as increased Brazilian exports and sufficient domestic supply [25][26] - Palm oil prices are oscillating and rebounding, and are expected to continue to oscillate, with general export performance in the producing areas [27][28] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: Fed officials warn that tariffs may push up prices, but the impact on inflation remains to be observed; Trump pressures the Republican Party to support the tax - cut bill, and the House of Representatives plans to vote this week; Japan may accept US tariff cuts. The US dollar index falls below 100, the 10Y US Treasury yield declines, the US stock market corrects slightly, and the gold price rises nearly 2% [2] - Domestic: In April, the general public budget revenue increased year - on - year, and the necessity of short - term fiscal incremental policies decreased. The central bank implements a moderately loose monetary policy, and the bank deposit interest rate is lowered [2] 3.1.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices generally rose on Tuesday. The increase in market risk aversion and the weakening of the US dollar index boosted precious metal prices. China's gold imports in April increased by 73% [3] 3.1.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper and London copper oscillated. The decline of the US dollar index and China's central bank's reduction of LPR supported copper prices. The production of copper products in China from January to April increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and a copper mine in the Congo (Kinshasa) suspended underground operations [5] 3.1.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum fell slightly, and London aluminum rose. The reduction of LPR and the decline of the US dollar index supported aluminum prices, but downstream consumption was waiting, and inventory accumulation was expected to increase [7] 3.1.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures main contract rose. Uncertainties in Guinea's mines may support the price of bauxite, and alumina is expected to continue its favorable trend [9] 3.1.6 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc oscillated and London zinc rose. In April, zinc concentrate imports increased significantly, and refined zinc imports decreased year - on - year. The decline of the US dollar boosted zinc prices, but the upward space was limited [10][11] 3.1.7 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead oscillated. In April, China's lead exports and imports increased, and lead - acid battery exports increased. The supply - demand balance of lead weakened marginally, and lead prices oscillated weakly [12][13] 3.1.8 Tin - On Tuesday, Shanghai tin rose at night. The processing fees of tin mines in Yunnan and Guangxi were stable at a low level, and the decline of the US dollar supported tin prices to break through the moving - average pressure [15] 3.1.9 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the industrial silicon main contract continued to decline. The inventory pressure increased, and the supply - demand structure was oversupplied. It is expected to maintain a low - level weak oscillation [16][17] 3.1.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Tuesday, the price of carbonate lithium oscillated. The import of carbonate lithium in April increased significantly, and the short - term price may rebound due to factors such as the reduction of short - selling positions at the end of the session [18][19] 3.1.11 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices oscillated weakly. The reduction of LPR and other interest rates had limited impact on nickel prices. The supply of nickel mines was not loose, and the demand for stainless steel was weak [20] 3.1.12 Crude Oil - On Tuesday, crude oil oscillated strongly. The US - Iran nuclear negotiation was deadlocked, and the market expected OPEC to approve a significant increase in production in July. Short - term oil prices are expected to oscillate [21] 3.1.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The spot trading volume was average, and the cost of steel mills decreased slightly. The real - estate investment continued to decline, and steel prices are expected to oscillate [22][23] 3.1.14 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The port inventory decreased, the spot demand was fair, and the supply was relatively loose. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate mainly [24] 3.1.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, bean and rapeseed meal futures rose slightly. Brazil's soybean exports in May are expected to increase, and the strong precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas has limited impact on sowing. Domestic oil - mill operating rates have rebounded, and double - meal prices are expected to continue weak oscillations [25][26] 3.1.16 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures rose. The export demand in the producing areas increased moderately, and short - term funds entered the market. Palm oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate [27][28] 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The trading data of various metal varieties on May 20, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are provided [29][30] 3.3 Industrial Data Perspective - The industrial data of various metals on May 20 and May 19 are provided, including warehouse receipts, inventories, spot prices, and price differentials [31][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then fell. The significant reduction of Sino - US tariffs, cooling US inflation, and lower - than - expected retail growth increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut, causing the US dollar to decline, which was favorable for the rebound of the non - ferrous sector. However, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, reigniting macro - concerns. China's April financial data was mixed, with credit failing to continue improving and its structure weakening, indicating insufficient endogenous economic momentum [3][10]. - Since mid - April, zinc ingot imports have started, with many importers reducing orders. Recently, imported and bonded area supplies have flowed in for replenishment, and the inflow is expected to be more obvious in the second half of the month. In May, refineries had concentrated maintenance in the first half of the month, but many resumed production in the second half. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly supply of refined zinc was basically flat compared with the previous month, and the overall supply - side pressure remained unrelieved [4][10]. - In terms of demand, the performance of special towers remained good, while photovoltaic orders weakened. Enterprises' export orders were expected to improve but needed time. The operating rate of galvanized enterprises increased slightly; the export orders of small hardware improved without obvious rush - to - export behavior, and combined with the resumption of some enterprises, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy increased; rubber and electronic - grade orders declined, while feed - grade orders improved. Export enterprises remained cautious, and the operating rate of zinc oxide increased slightly month - on - month [4][10]. - Overall, the optimistic sentiment about tariffs has been digested, and Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, causing the market sentiment to return to caution. With the launch of new domestic smelting projects, the supply continued to increase. Meanwhile, with the supplement of imported zinc and the end of the consumption peak season, the expectation of weak fundamentals due to increasing supply and weak demand remained unchanged. In the short term, the cooling of market risk appetite and insufficient fundamental support are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in zinc prices [4][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | May 9th | May 16th | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22190 | 22500 | 310 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2655.5 | 2726 | 70.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.36 | 8.25 | - 0.10 | | | SHFE Inventory | 47102 | 46351 | - 751 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 170325 | 165175 | - 5150 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 8.33 | 8.63 | 0.3 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | 500 | 250 | - 250 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the main contract ZN2506 of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then fell. The larger - than - expected reduction of Sino - US tariffs alleviated concerns about the US economic recession and China's export pressure, and the market sentiment recovered, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. However, the zinc price was under pressure and adjusted after hitting the 40 - day moving average, finally closing at 22500 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.4%. It was weak and volatile on Friday night. LME zinc continued to rebound in the first half of the week and fluctuated and consolidated in the second half, finally closing at 2686 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.15% [6]. - In the spot market, as of May 16th, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22765 - 22910 yuan/ton, with a premium of 250 - 270 yuan/ton over 2506. SMC had a premium of 260 yuan/ton over 2506, and Kazakh zinc had a premium of 180 yuan/ton over 2506. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22775 - 22900 yuan/ton, with a premium of 265 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract and a premium of 40 yuan/ton over the Shanghai spot. In Guangdong, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 22640 - 22700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 305 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract and a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. In the Tianjin market, the mainstream 0 zinc ingots were traded at 22720 - 22940 yuan/ton, and the common 0 zinc was quoted at a premium of 200 - 300 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract, with Tianjin at par with Shanghai. Overall, as the zinc price rebounded, the downstream purchasing sentiment weakened. Meanwhile, with the inflow of imported zinc ingots and improved supply, holders continued to lower the premium quotes to actively sell, but the actual spot transactions were relatively light [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 16th, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 165175 tons, a weekly decrease of 5150 tons. The SHFE inventory was 46351 tons, a decrease of 751 tons from the previous week. As of May 15th, the social inventory was 8.63 million tons, an increase of 0.08 million tons from Monday and an increase of 0.3 million tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in Guangdong decreased due to less arrival and downstream pick - up after low - price purchases in the early stage; the inventory in Tianjin increased as downstream buyers were cautious due to high prices; the inventory in Shanghai changed little; and the inventory in Zhejiang increased significantly due to the arrival of imported zinc ingots [8]. - In the macro aspect, US inflation cooled down. The April CPI was 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest level since February 2021. The core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, the lowest rate since the inflation outbreak in the spring of 2021. The US April PPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, lower than expected, and decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the largest decline in five years. The US April retail sales increased by 0.1% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations but significantly weaker than the previous value, indicating weak consumer spending. Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed was considering adjusting the core content of the monetary policy guidance framework to cope with major changes in inflation and interest rate prospects after the 2020 pandemic. Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson said that tariffs and related uncertainties might lead to slower economic growth and rising inflation this year, but the monetary policy was ready to respond as needed. In terms of tariffs, the joint statement of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks was released. Both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US cancelled a total of 91% of the additional tariffs, and China correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs; the US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. China's new RMB loans in April were 280 billion yuan, the previous value was 3.64 trillion yuan, the expected value was 764.4 billion yuan, and the value of the same period last year was 730 billion yuan; the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, the previous value was 5.89 trillion yuan, the expected value was 1.26 trillion yuan, and the value of the same period last year was - 65.8 billion yuan; the stock social financing growth rate was 8.7%, the previous value was 8.4%; M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, the expected value was 7.5%, and the previous value was 7%; M1 increased by 1.5% year - on - year, the expected value was 3%, and the previous value was 1.6% [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week of May 16th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 3500 yuan/metal ton and 45 US dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining flat month - on - month for domestic and increasing by 5 US dollars/dry ton for foreign [11]. - Kyzyl - Tashtyg Mine, operated by Longxin Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Zijin Mining Group in the Tuva Republic of Russia, is facing financial difficulties due to the escalation of international sanctions and limited Sino - Russian financial cooperation and plans to suspend operations. Zijin Mining owns 70% of the mine, which produced approximately 71300 tons of zinc concentrate and approximately 4750 tons of lead concentrate in 2024 [11][12]. - New Century's zinc concentrate production in Q1 2025 was 30000 tons. It performed excellently in Q1 2025, reducing the impact of the rainy season through effective resilience measures, with a 50% increase compared to the weather - affected production in 2024. Zijin Mining's mineral zinc production in Q1 2025 was 88215 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10% and a month - on - month decrease of 9% [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trend charts of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio, spot premium and discount, LME premium and discount, inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profit, refined zinc net import, and the operating rate of downstream primary enterprises [14][15][17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The outcome of the China-US economic and trade agreement exceeded market expectations, with both sides significantly lowering tariff thresholds, leading to a revision of macro expectations. The US inflation pressure further eased, and the market expects the Fed to postpone the interest rate cut to September [3]. - Although the Indonesian Nickel Association has repeatedly lowered the benchmark price of nickel ore, the current shortage situation continues, and the ore price is still rising. The cost pressure of ferronickel is prominent, and some ferronickel plants in Indonesia have stopped quoting for bulk goods. The nickel sulfate market remains sluggish, with no willingness for downstream inventory replenishment, continuing active destocking. Cathode plants may reduce the production plan for May, and there are no bright spots in the new energy sector. Stainless steel inventory has significantly decreased, and the production of electrolytic nickel is at a high level, with a stable fundamentals [3]. - In the later stage, there is no expectation of macro disturbances, and the fundamentals may be marginally revised, with nickel prices fluctuating strongly. There are no important economic data to be released this week, and the tariff risk is gradually cooling down, with no expectation of macro disturbances. With the entry into force of the China-US tariff agreement, the downstream household appliance industry may have plans to rush exports, which may drive a marginal recovery in stainless steel consumption. The significant contraction of steel mills' production in May may drive an accelerated reduction in stainless steel inventory. The new energy sector continues to grow weakly, with no obvious inflection point expected. Overall, the marginal revision of the fundamentals may boost nickel prices [3][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Important Data - SHFE nickel closed at 124,060 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, down 2,070 yuan/ton from May 12; LME nickel closed at $15,648/ton, up $13/ton; LME inventory was 195,222 tons, down 2,448 tons; SHFE inventory was 23,501 tons, up 279 tons; the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the premium of Russian nickel was 250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the average price of high-nickel pig iron was 960 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; stainless steel inventory was 952,000 tons, up 800 tons [4] 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines remained at $48.5/wet ton, while the domestic FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia rose from $48.6/wet ton to $49.3/wet ton. The shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia continued, with domestic traders' quotes remaining firm and the FOB price further rising. The price of Philippine ore stopped rising, and the current shipping volume remained at a low level [5] Ferronickel - The price of high-nickel pig iron (10%-12%) dropped from 942.5 yuan/nickel point to 941.5 yuan/nickel point. The expected production of nickel pig iron in China in May was about 26,260 metal tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.15%; the total import of domestic ferronickel in March was about 1.0133 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 60%, and the import scale exceeded one million tons for the first time; the expected production of ferronickel in Indonesia in April was 143,300 nickel tons, a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 17.19%/1.19%, and the ferronickel production was still in the climbing stage. The expected production of 300-series stainless steel in China in May was about 1.78 million tons, an increase of 4 tons compared with the same period last year; as of April 30, the domestic stainless steel inventory was 573,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5,900 tons. Overall, the high price of nickel ore and the continuous weakening of ferronickel prices have highlighted the cost pressure on ferronickel plants. Some Indonesian ferronickel plants have stopped quoting for bulk goods and only maintain long-term agreements. With the implementation of the China-US economic and trade agreement, some domestic small household appliance enterprises have rushed to export, which may drive a correction in stainless steel demand. The significant contraction of domestic stainless steel production in May may lead to a decline in inventory from a high level [6] Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,115 yuan/ton to 27,995 yuan/ton; the price of electroplating-grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,750 yuan/ton. The expected production of nickel sulfate in terms of metal content in May was about 26,000 tons, a year-on-year and month-on-month decrease of 20.51%/0.39%. The production of ternary materials in May increased again month-on-month, with a total of about 63,745 tons, a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 1.36%/30.95%. Overall, there is no expected increase in the demand for nickel sulfate, the terminal new energy consumption is weakly stable, and some cathode material plants plan to reduce production, but they are still in the channel of month-on-month expansion. In the short term, it may continue on a stable growth path, but there are no high expectations [7] Macro and Fundamental Aspects - Macroscopically, the China-US economic and trade agreement has been implemented, and both sides have significantly lowered tariff barriers. However, Trump's policy style is changeable, and the tax reduction window is only open for 90 days, so there are still many uncertain factors in the future of trade relations. The US inflation data has weakened, reaching a new low, and the labor market remains resilient. The market expects the Fed to postpone the interest rate cut to September. However, Powell said that the risk of "supply shock" still needs to be vigilant, and the tariff pressure needs further observation. In terms of data, the US core CPI in April was 2.8% year-on-year, in line with expectations and the previous value; the CPI was 2.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.4% and the previous value of 2.4%; the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 229,000, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous period [7][8] - On the supply side, the domestic production capacity in May was stable, and the production schedule of smelters declined. According to the SMM caliber, the expected production of electrolytic nickel in May was 35,350 tons, a decrease from April; the sample production capacity was 54,099 tons, unchanged from the previous period; the expected operating rate in May was 65.34%, a decrease of about 1.76 percentage points from the previous month. In March, the domestic export scale of electrolytic nickel was about 145,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 93.53%. As of May 16, the export profit of nickel in China under the SMM caliber was $221.76/ton. Overall, although the production in May declined, it still remained at a high level. The export window was still open, and there was still room to absorb the surplus resources. With the promotion of terminal rush exports, the demand for stainless steel may be pushed up again, thereby supporting the supply of electrolytic nickel [8] - In terms of consumption, from May 1 to 11, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 294,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32% compared with the same period in May last year and a month-on-month increase of 29%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 51.3%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 3.618 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35%. At the beginning of May, the consumption growth rate of new energy vehicles still showed resilience, and the new car replacement policies across the country continued to increase. Haikou issued provincial subsidy incentives, with a maximum single-vehicle subsidy of 5,000 yuan. On the other end of the fast-charging track, the battery-swapping track is also progressing simultaneously. The Beijing Market Supervision and Administration Bureau mentioned in a recently released document that the solicitation of opinions on the "Operating Management Specification for Electric Vehicle Battery-Swapping Stations" has been completed. It requires that the battery-swapping time for electric passenger vehicles should be less than 4 minutes, and the battery-swapping time for electric commercial vehicles should be less than 5 minutes. It also establishes rules and regulations for the management of potential safety hazards and encourages an internal reporting and reward mechanism for hazards [9] - In terms of inventory, the current total social inventory of pure nickel in six places is 44,151 tons, an increase of 63 tons from the previous period; the SHFE inventory is 23,501 tons, a month-on-month increase of 279 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 195,222 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2,448 tons; the total inventory of the world's two major exchanges is 218,723 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2,169 tons [9] 3. Industry News - On May 11, 2025, the 90,000-ton nickel-cobalt project in Sulawesi, Indonesia, held a start-up ceremony and the successful installation of the first autoclave. The construction and installation projects of the main body and supporting ancillary facilities of the project, including construction engineering, installation engineering, and supporting ancillary facilities, single-unit commissioning, and cooperation with the owner for no-load and load commissioning, started on January 1, 2025, and are expected to be completed on April 30, 2026. Currently, there are 30 sub-items in the third section of the mining area and 23 sub-items in the mining area section [11] - Overseas resource exploration is accelerating, and many companies are successively deploying. Tembo Nickel Limited plans to start the construction of the Kabanga nickel project in the Kagera region this October, marking an important step in the development of the mining industry in Tanzania [11] - Legacy Minerals has applied for an exploration license for the Nico Young nickel-cobalt project in New South Wales. The project has a resource volume of about 1 million tons of nickel and 100,000 tons of cobalt. The project was previously held by Jervois Global, and now it has no acquisition cost, no debt, or royalty, and benefits from more than A$25 million in pre-development work [11] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premium and discount trends, LME 0-3 nickel premium and discount, domestic and international nickel ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high-nickel iron price, 300-series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [13][15]