1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In October, the lead price fluctuated upwards. The domestic lead ingot social and factory inventories decreased to a low level, and there was a large - scale cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts overseas. The lead price increased with rising positions. With the slowdown of destocking of the total domestic lead ingot inventory but still at a low absolute level, and the continued shortage of deliverable products, and the relatively concentrated long positions of SHFE lead, it is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In October, the lead price fluctuated upwards. As of November 6, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.26% to 17,438 yuan/ton, with a total long - only trading position of 122,500 lots. The LME lead 3S rose 0.5 to 2,022 dollars/ton, with a total position of 150,000 lots. The SMM 1 lead ingot average price was 17,225 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,175 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **Market Structure**: Domestically, the social inventory slightly increased to 32,100 tons, the SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 21,900 tons. Overseas, the LME lead ingot inventory was 208,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warehouse receipts were 106,700 tons. The cross - market SHFE - LME ratio was 1.211 after excluding exchange rates, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 31.09 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 27,000 tons, the factory inventory was 420,000 tons. The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.17%. At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons, and the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons. The lead - acid battery start - up rate was 68.90% [11]. - **Outlook**: The visible lead ore inventory continued to decline, the primary smelter start - up rate remained high, and the primary lead factory inventory increased. The recycled lead ingot weekly output increased. The downstream battery enterprise start - up rate declined, and the domestic lead ingot total inventory destocking slowed down but was still at a low level, with deliverable products remaining in short supply. It is expected that SHFE lead will be strong in the short term [11]. 3.2 Primary Supply - **Supply Data**: In September 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 150,600 physical tons, and in October, the domestic lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons. The total supply of lead concentrate in September was 306,000 metal tons. In June 2025, the global lead ore output was 395,900 tons [15][17][19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 27,000 tons, the factory inventory was 420,000 tons. The lead concentrate import TC was - 125 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Data**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.17%, and in October 2025, the domestic primary lead output was 326,000 tons [11][26]. 3.3 Recycled Supply - **Raw Material and Production**: The lead scrap inventory was 83,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 39,000 tons, and in October 2025, the domestic recycled lead output was 346,300 tons [31][33][35]. - **Total Supply**: In September 2025, the domestic lead ingot total supply was 657,200 tons [35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up and Apparent Demand**: The lead - acid battery start - up rate was 68.9%. In September 2025, the domestic lead ingot apparent demand was 718,900 tons [40]. - **Battery Export**: In September 2025, the estimated lead - containing net export of batteries was 60,700 tons [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, the new installation demand improved; in the automobile sector, the demand for lead was expected to grow steadily; in the base station sector, the demand for lead - acid batteries increased steadily [49][51][54]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 61,800 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to September was a shortage of 6,800 tons [63]. - **Overseas Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of 8,000 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to July was a shortage of 53,900 tons [66]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Market Structure**: Domestically, the social inventory slightly increased, the SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 21,600 tons. Overseas, the LME lead ingot inventory was 224,200 tons. The cross - market SHFE - LME ratio was 1.213 after excluding exchange rates, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 24.99 yuan/ton [71][74][77]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of SHFE lead became net long, the net long positions of LME lead investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises decreased. From the position perspective, the short - term guidance was bullish [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In the short term, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down the nickel price. If the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, it is difficult for the nickel price to rise significantly. However, in the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support the nickel price, and the nickel price may confirm the bottom earlier than the fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term operating range of the main contract price of Shanghai nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In October, the nickel ore price remained stable. In the Philippines, due to increased rainfall and strong price - holding intention of mines, the price is unlikely to fall soon. In Indonesia, the overall supply and demand of pyrometallurgical ore is relatively loose, but the new rule on the approval cycle intensifies the expectation of "ore supply shortage", and smelters are speeding up stockpiling, with the price expected to remain stable or rise slightly. The hydrometallurgical ore market is dull, and the price is expected to remain stable [11]. - **Ferronickel**: In October, the ferronickel price was weak due to weak demand. The supply - side profit is squeezed, and the price - holding intention is strong. The demand from the stainless - steel industry is weak, and steel enterprises are pressing down the price. The demand side dominates the price, and the price is expected to remain weak [11]. - **Intermediate products**: The supply - demand tightness of the MHP market continues. The supply of MHP spot is limited, and sellers are strongly holding the price. The demand for battery pre - installation due to the subsidy withdrawal in 2026 makes downstream enterprises more accepting of high prices, and the MHP coefficient price remains strong [11]. - **Refined nickel**: In October, the nickel price fluctuated weakly. Macroscopically, although the Sino - US tariff negotiation made progress, the US government shutdown and the Fed's slightly hawkish stance led to a general decline in non - ferrous metal prices after a rise. In the spot market, the output of refined nickel remained high, and inventories continued to accumulate, with the spot premium stable [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures nickel price trend**: In October, the nickel price fluctuated weakly. As of November 6, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 119,440 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract was 15,055 US dollars/ton [17]. - **Nickel spot premium**: In October, the spot premium of domestic refined nickel fluctuated strongly. As of November 7, the premium of Russian nickel spot average price to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 3,100 yuan/ton, with the average price up 700 yuan/ton from the previous month [21]. - **Secondary nickel price**: In October, the ferronickel price was weak. As of November 6, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 912 - 921 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 38 yuan/nickel point from the previous month. The sulfuric acid nickel price was relatively strong, and as of November 6, the domestic spot price of sulfuric acid nickel was 28,340 - 28,600 yuan/ton, with the average price basically unchanged from the previous month [24]. 3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The nickel ore price remained stable with a slight increase. On November 7, the arrival price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.7 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous month; that of 1.2% - grade was 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous month; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade Philippine nickel ore was 58 US dollars/wet ton, up 1 US dollar/ton from the previous month [33]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In October 2025, the national refined nickel output was 33,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from September [48]. - **Demand**: The demand for refined nickel is affected by the stainless - steel industry, manufacturing, and real - estate industries. The inventory of stainless - steel enterprises and the performance of terminal industries have an impact on demand [50]. - **Import and export**: No specific data on import and export changes in October are mentioned, but relevant charts are provided [54]. - **Inventory**: In October, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 30,284 tons to 299,948 tons, with both China and the LME accumulating inventory [58]. 5. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Supply**: No specific data on supply changes in October are mentioned, but relevant charts on production and net import volume are provided [64]. - **Demand**: The demand for sulfuric acid nickel is related to the installation volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors [67]. - **Cost and price**: Charts on the production cost, price, and profit margin of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel are provided, but no specific data on October are mentioned [70]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides the supply - demand balance data from 2019 to 2025. From 2019 - 2025, the overall supply is greater than the demand, and the supply - demand gap shows an increasing trend year by year [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In October, zinc prices declined and then rebounded. The industry's focus was on the short squeeze of LME zinc and domestic zinc smelting production cuts. The registered warehouse receipts of LME zinc ingots reached a new low in recent years, and the high LME zinc spread opened the domestic zinc ingot export window. With the decrease in imported zinc ore and the increase in domestic zinc smelting winter stockpiling demand, the zinc ore TC declined, and the zinc smelting profit decreased, leading to a slowdown in zinc ingot supply growth. The downstream demand remained generally stable, and the total domestic zinc ingot inventory gradually increased. The major short positions in the previous main contract of SHFE zinc significantly reduced, and some turned into net long positions. The registered warehouse receipts of LME zinc slightly increased, alleviating the overseas structural risk. Considering the recent macro - events and the positive sentiment in the commodity market, SHFE zinc is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside space for zinc prices is limited during the surplus cycle [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In October, zinc prices declined and then rebounded. The LME zinc registered warehouse receipts hit a new low of 22,900 tons in recent years, and the high LME zinc spread opened the domestic zinc ingot export window. As of November 6, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.10% to 22,691 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 225,700 lots. The LME zinc 3S fell 16 to $3,054.5/ton, with a total position of 228,600 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 158,700 tons, and the SHFE zinc futures inventory was 68,000 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 55 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 45 yuan/ton. The LME zinc inventory was 34,000 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 4,300 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was $98.23/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $53.2/ton. The ex - exchange rate SHFE - LME ratio was 1.046, and the zinc ingot import loss was 4,211.76 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 2,850 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 103 dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 248,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 616,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 57.54%, 52.50%, and 58.19% respectively [11]. - **Outlook**: The domestic zinc ore inventory continued to decline, the zinc concentrate processing fee dropped again, and the domestic zinc smelting profit decreased, resulting in a decline in monthly zinc ingot production. With downstream demand remaining stable, the total domestic zinc ingot inventory slowly increased. SHFE zinc is expected to be strong in the short term, but the upside space is limited [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and manufacturing new and unfinished orders in the US, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ore production was 314,500 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%. From January to September, the cumulative zinc ore production was 2,739,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.5%. The net import of zinc ore in September was 505,400 dry tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.2% and a month - on - month increase of 8.6%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4,000,600 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41.0%. The total domestic zinc ore supply in September was 541,900 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 4,540,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.3% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In October 2025, the zinc ingot production was 617,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21.4% and a month - on - month increase of 2.8%. From January to October, the cumulative zinc ingot production was 5,686,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.1%. The net import of zinc ingot in September was 23,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 16.2%. From January to September, the cumulative net import of zinc ingot was 267,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 21.1%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply in September was 623,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.7%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 5,336,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.8% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - stage Demand**: The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 57.48%, 53.13%, and 56.36% respectively. The raw material inventories were 13,000 tons, 13,000 tons, and 3,000 tons respectively, and the finished product inventories were 370,000 tons, 10,000 tons, and 5,000 tons respectively [39]. - **Apparent Demand**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 622,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and a month - on - month increase of 3.9%. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 5,193,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.7% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 500 tons. From January to September, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 143,200 tons [52]. - **Overseas Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 3,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 28,200 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 161,500 tons. The SHFE zinc futures inventory was 67,800 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 5 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc inventory was 34,900 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 6,100 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was $96.02/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was $46.49/ton [63]. - **Cross - market Structure**: The ex - exchange rate SHFE - LME ratio was 1.04, and the zinc ingot import loss was 4,272.74 yuan/ton [64]. - **Position Analysis**: The net position of the top 20 holders of SHFE zinc turned net long, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased, indicating a short - term bullish sentiment from the position perspective [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market has opportunities for band - trading long. The market logic for bulls is mainly the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year, and the expected positive impact of Chinese policies. The main reasons for bears are the mediocre demand reality, the expected decline in demand due to tariff - increasing policies, and the increase in rubber exports from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire. [18] - The EUDR's postponement will cause a chain reaction such as inventory reduction in the stocking process of rubber and tire factories, which is a short - term negative for demand. However, the proposal released on October 21, 2025, is a marginal positive but with limited positive expectations. [11] - The 62,000 - ton rubber reserve release in September 2025 is judged to be a short - term negative and a medium - term positive. [12] - The new production capacity of butadiene in Q4 is expected to increase the supply of butadiene and reduce the processing profit of butadiene, and the raw material supply is negative for the price of butadiene rubber. [22] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In October 2025, the rubber price rose significantly due to factors such as the expected increase in rainfall in Thailand, positive expectations for China - US talks, and the EUDR's positive impact. Subsequently, the driving force for the price increase decreased, and the price oscillated and corrected. In November 2025, there were short - buying opportunities during the price correction. [10] - The market expects subsequent storage plans. The cost of rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be 30 - 35 Thai baht per cup of rubber. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and that in Yunnan is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. [18][58] - The recommended trading strategy is to go long on RU2601 and short on RU2609, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 1.5:1, an irregular recommended period, and the core driving logic being the low spread. If the future demand expectation improves, the spread will widen, and repeated band - trading operations are recommended. [24] 3.2 Cost End - The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. The maintenance cost of rubber is a dynamic concept, which is related to the enthusiasm of rubber farmers and the rubber price. [58] 3.3 Periodic and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable. The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020. [31][36][39] 3.4 Profit and Ratio - Most of the ratio data between rubber and other commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil, black commodities, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, are normal, without special values or points of concern. The black commodities and rubber generally move in a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand. [47][50][54] 3.5 Demand End - The full - steel tire production capacity utilization rate of tire factories is 65.46% (0.12%), and the demand for full - steel tires is normal. The peak of semi - steel tire exports to Europe has passed, and the demand is expected to weaken. The sales of trucks and commercial vehicles are at a low level but are slowly improving, and the export of truck tires is booming but expected to decline slightly in the future. [18][67][70] 3.6 Supply End - The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, without special values or points of concern. In September 2025, rubber production was 1,141,600 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.30% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%. The production and export data of major producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam are also provided. [75][89][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil production exceeding expectations suppresses the performance of the palm oil market. The current situation of palm oil inventory accumulation due to large supply in the short - term may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's current high production cannot be sustained, the de - stocking time may come earlier. However, if Indonesia maintains its recent high - production record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to view palm oil as oscillating weakly before the improvement of Malaysian palm oil exports, and switch to a bullish mindset if there are signals of production decline [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview**: In October, the prices of the three major oils dropped significantly. The net long positions of foreign capital in the oil market turned negative, mainly because the supply of palm oil in the producing areas was still large, and the export data of Malaysian palm oil did not increase, indicating general downstream demand or high palm oil production. An Indonesian official said that the palm oil production in 2025 would increase by 10% year - on - year. Coupled with the high year - on - year production data in August, the market expected continuous inventory accumulation in the producing areas, suppressing the market trend. After the meeting between the leaders of China and Canada, the two sides agreed to resume exchanges and cooperation in various fields and promote the resolution of specific economic and trade issues of mutual concern, but Canada later said it would not immediately reduce tariffs. Indonesia's palm oil production in August was still large. Although its domestic inventory was not high, the monthly export volume was large, and the international supply was relatively sufficient. If high production continued in the fourth quarter, Malaysia and Indonesia would enter a continuous inventory - accumulation phase, but according to normal production levels and international demand in previous years, there would be a rapid de - stocking rhythm in the first quarter of next year. In October, the spot basis of domestic oils was stable. The total domestic oil inventory was still high, and the oil supply was sufficient. As the soybean crushing volume decreased due to the decline in arrivals, the production of soybean oil decreased. The rapeseed oil inventory was expected to remain at a relatively high level due to imports, and the palm oil inventory remained stable due to low imports. The total domestic oil inventory might show a slight downward trend from a high level [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: The unexpectedly high palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the performance of the palm oil market. The short - term inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. If high production continues, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to view palm oil as oscillating weakly before the improvement of Malaysian palm oil exports and switch to a bullish mindset if there are signals of production decline [11][12][13]. 3.2 Periodic and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis and seasonal basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, including the FOB - contract price difference of Malaysian palm oil, the basis of palm oil 01 contracts, the basis of soybean oil 01 contracts, and the basis of rapeseed oil 01 contracts [18][20][22]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Export**: The report provides data on the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the monthly production and export of Indonesian palm oil and palm kernel oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [28][29][30]. - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas**: The report shows the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas and related forecasts, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate [34][35]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory Data**: The report presents data on the total inventory of the three major domestic oils, the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India, the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit and main oil - mill inventory of soybean oil, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the palm oil inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia [41][44][46]. 3.5 Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: The report shows the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [52]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost**: The report shows the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed [55]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Oil Transactions**: The report presents the cumulative transactions of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [58]. - **Biodiesel Profit**: The report shows the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the PVC market, the fundamental situation is poor with strong supply and weak demand. The overall valuation pressure has decreased, but the supply pressure remains high due to low maintenance volume and new device production. Although domestic demand has improved slightly, it is still unable to support the significant increase in production, and the export outlook is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter. There is a continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the short - term, and in the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be unfavorable after new device commissioning. Therefore, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2830 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke price is 870 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton month - on - month. The comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali has further declined to the lowest level of the year, and the ethylene - based profit has remained low [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 80.8%, down 0.7% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 81.2%, down 0.9% month - on - month; the ethylene method is 79.7%, down 0.1% month - on - month. The maintenance volume decreased slightly last month, and the average capacity utilization rate was higher than that in September. With the output from new devices, the supply pressure continued to rise, and the monthly output reached a new high. The maintenance intensity is expected to be low this month, and two new devices are planned to be put into operation, so the supply pressure is expected to remain high [11]. - **Demand**: In September, the export volume rebounded to the highest level of the year, mainly due to the recovery of exports to India. However, the anti - dumping duty rate in India is expected to be implemented in November, and exports are expected to decline after that. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries continued to rise. The pipe load is 39.4%, down 1% month - on - month; the film load is 71.8%, up 7.9% month - on - month; the profile load is 37.6%, down 1.3% month - on - month; the overall downstream load is 49.6%, up 1.8% month - on - month. The downstream performance continued to improve, but was still weak in the real - estate downturn cycle and unable to reverse the oversupply situation [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory is 33.5 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5 tons; the social inventory is 104 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6 tons; the overall inventory is 137.6 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 9.5 tons; the warehouse receipts continued to rise. The market is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, and with the expected weakening of exports, the inventory accumulation is expected to continue [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market No detailed text analysis content provided, only some charts about PVC spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, term structure, prices, positions, and trading volumes are presented [15][16][19]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The integrated profit of chlor - alkali has fallen to a historical low level, reducing the valuation pressure [44]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory and social inventory data are presented through charts, showing the inventory trends from 2021 to 2025 [33][35][40]. 4. Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices first rose and then fell. Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide prices showed different trends, with Shandong's price declining month - on - month [11][51]. - The semi - coke price stabilized and rebounded, the caustic soda price remained stable, and the ethylene price declined [54]. 5. Supply Side - In 2025, the PVC capacity investment is large, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. A total of 250 tons of new capacity is planned to be put into operation, including multiple projects using different production processes in different regions [63][68]. - The capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide method, ethylene method, and overall PVC are presented, showing a slight decline month - on - month [11]. 6. Demand Side - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries (pipes, films, and profiles) of PVC have increased, but the overall downstream demand is still weak in the real - estate downturn cycle [11]. - In September, the export volume rebounded to a high level of the year, mainly due to the recovery of exports to India. However, the anti - dumping duty rate in India is expected to be implemented in November, and exports are expected to decline [11]. - The relationship between PVC demand and real - estate indicators such as housing completion area and new construction area is analyzed through charts [95].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of gold and silver showed a trend of rising first and then falling this month, and are currently in a consolidation phase, but there is still strong support below. The Fed's hawkish stance on monetary policy has put significant pressure on the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, causing the previous strong performance of gold and silver prices to slow down. However, Powell's statement on the balance sheet is a key turning point, and the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet in the future provides a solid reason, which has a more significant driving effect on precious metal prices. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips, with the reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai gold being 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and that of the main contract of Shanghai silver being 11,001 - 12,366 yuan/kilogram [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Market Performance**: From October 9 to November 6, 2025, the main contract of COMEX gold fell 1.9% to $3,984.8 per ounce, reaching a record high of $4,398 per ounce during the session. The main contract of Shanghai gold rose slightly by 0.86% to 917.8 yuan/gram, reaching a record high of 1,001.96 yuan/gram during the session. The main contract of COMEX silver fell slightly by 1.25% to $47.845 per ounce, reaching a record high of $53.765 per ounce during the session. The main contract of Shanghai silver rose 2.03% to 11,427 yuan/kilogram, reaching a record high of 12,366 yuan/kilogram during the session [11][29]. - **Fed's Monetary Policy**: In the October FOMC meeting, Powell carried out a "hawkish rate cut", lowering the policy rate by 25bps to 3.75% - 4.00%, while expressing a hawkish stance on the subsequent interest rate path. The Fed's hawkish statements have put significant pressure on the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. However, Powell's statement on ending the balance sheet reduction on December 1st provides a solid reason for the subsequent expansion of the Fed's balance sheet, which is a strong driving force for the rise of gold and silver prices [11]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: The structural tightness of overseas silver spot cannot be completely resolved. China's photovoltaic silver demand is resilient, and India's silver imports are expected to rebound in the fourth quarter. The gold - silver ratio as of November 7 was 82.3, significantly higher than the historical average of 62 since 1971. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The Shanghai gold index has turned out of the downward trend and is currently consolidating in the range of 900 - 930 yuan/gram. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and it is advisable to buy on dips at the lower edge of the range. The technical chart of Shanghai silver is significantly stronger than that of Shanghai gold, forming a relatively strong ascending triangle consolidation pattern after turning out of the downward trend. In the short term, it will still maintain a volatile trend [15][16]. 2. Market Review - **Price and Position Changes**: COMEX gold and silver prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling this month. The total position of Shanghai gold decreased by 21.3% to 336,200 lots, and the total position of Shanghai silver decreased by 12.15% to 688,800 lots. As of the latest report period on September 23, the net long position of COMEX gold managed funds increased by 1,578 lots to 160,500 lots, and the net long position of COMEX silver managed funds increased by 1,293 lots to 37,000 lots. Due to the US government shutdown, some data such as COMEX gold and silver CFTC total positions and managed funds' net positions have not been updated [29][32][35][37]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of November 5, the total holdings of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope were 2,309.6 tons, and the total holdings of overseas silver ETFs were 27,892.1 tons [40]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **Interest Rate Indicators**: The report presents multiple interest rate - related charts, including the spread between 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds, short - term US Treasury yields, the federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectations [49][52]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: The Fed's balance sheet shows changes in various items. Due to the US government shutdown, the balance of the US Treasury's TGA account has risen significantly to $94.27 billion, and the deposit reserve balance has decreased to $2.85 trillion [54][57]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - **Inflation Data**: In September, the year - on - year value of US CPI was 3%, lower than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 2.9%. The month - on - month value was 0.3%, lower than the expected and previous value of 0.4%. The year - on - year value of core CPI was 3%, lower than the expected and previous value of 3.1%, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, lower than the previous value of 0.3% [62]. - **Employment Data**: Due to the US government shutdown, the latest weekly unemployment data in the US is missing [65]. - **PMI and PPI Data**: In October, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1; the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50 [68]. - **Housing Data**: In August, the annualized value of new home sales in the US was 800,000 units, significantly higher than the previous value of 664,000 units. The annualized value of building permits was 1.33 million units, and the annualized value of new housing starts was 1.307 million units [71]. 5. Precious Metals Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The report presents the charts of gold TD - SHFE basis, showing the changes in the basis over time [74][75]. - **Silver Basis**: The report presents the charts of silver TD - SHFE basis, showing the changes in the basis over time [77][78]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spreads**: The report presents the charts of domestic - foreign spreads of gold and silver, showing the changes in the spreads over time [81][83]. 6. Precious Metals Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: The report presents the inventory charts of silver in multiple markets, including the total inventory of Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX, as well as the inventories of individual exchanges [88][90]. - **Gold Inventories**: The report presents the inventory charts of COMEX gold and LBMA gold [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The rebound in the pig market is mainly driven by frozen product storage and increased secondary fattening, leading to a bearish pattern of high slaughter volume and large body weight before the Spring Festival. The overall direction of the future market is to short on rebounds. Given the current high - position and low - price game situation, there is a possibility of a short - term rebound. Considering the large near - term supply and the expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, the recommended strategies are first reverse spreads and then shorting after rebounds [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Since October, domestic pig prices have shown a trend of first falling, then rising, and then falling again. The average prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong have decreased. Supply and demand are in a game, and pig prices are expected to decline slightly with fluctuations [11][22] - **Supply Side**: In September, the official sow inventory was 40.35 million, 3.5% more than the normal level. Capacity reduction has started but is progressing slowly. From now to April next year, the basic supply is increasing monthly, and the market before the Spring Festival will face a bearish configuration [11] - **Demand Side**: After the National Day, demand has increased, but significant growth is expected after December [11] - **Strategy**: Recommend reverse spreads first, followed by shorting after rebounds. For single - side trading, short on rebounds for contracts 01 and 03; for arbitrage, conduct reverse spreads for 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 contracts [11][13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Trend**: Pig prices have fluctuated, and the average weight of slaughtered pigs has increased. Supply and demand suggest a slight decline in pig prices [22] - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The basis has converged, and the monthly spread still favors reverse spreads [25] - **Prices of Piglets and Sows**: Data on prices of piglets, reserve sows, and culled sows are presented, but no specific trends are summarized in the text [27][28] 3.3 Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In September, the official sow inventory decreased slightly, but was still higher than normal. Capacity reduction has started slowly [33] - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, the market before the Spring Festival will face a bearish situation [43] - **Slaughter Proportion of Different - Sized Pigs**: The proportion of small and large pigs in slaughter is not high, indicating limited impact of diseases and a limited number of fat pigs [46] - **Trading and Post - Slaughter Weight**: After the National Day, the slaughter volume remained high, and the market supply was large and excessive [50] 3.4 Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume**: After the National Day, demand has increased, but significant growth is expected after December [59] - **Slaughtering Rate and Gross Margin**: Data on slaughtering rate and gross margin are presented, but no specific trends are summarized in the text [61] - **Spread and Price - Volume Relationship**: Data on spreads and price - volume relationships are presented, but no specific trends are summarized in the text [63] - **Fresh - Frozen Spread and Fresh Sales Rate**: Data on fresh - frozen spreads and fresh sales rates are presented, but no specific trends are summarized in the text [65] 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost is decreasing, but there has been an overall loss this year [70] 3.6 Inventory Side - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: The frozen product inventory is slowly recovering and in a state of active inventory accumulation [75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In November, China's refined copper production is expected to stabilize, and consumption is expected to seasonally recover. With an increase in scrap copper substitution, supply and demand are expected to be in a tight balance. Overseas demand is expected to be neutral, and the increase in smelter maintenance and production cuts will ease the supply pressure. Meanwhile, changes in US imports need to be monitored. At the macro - level, Sino - US economic and trade relations have entered a period of relaxation, and the Fed's monetary policy will remain in a loose direction. Therefore, although the US government's continued shutdown and the correction of the US stock market at a high level are expected to be only short - term shocks, the reopening of the US government is expected to boost market sentiment again. Overall, with the tight supply pattern at the mine end, the center of copper prices will rise compared to before. If the macro - pessimistic sentiment eases, copper prices are expected to strengthen again in a volatile manner. The operating range of the main contract of SHFE copper this month is 84,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M copper is 10,400 - 11,200 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to try to go long on dips. [9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Highlights Summary - **Supply**: In Q3, overseas copper mine production fell short of expectations, and copper mine supply remained tight, while the supply of blister copper was marginally relaxed. In October, China's refined copper production decreased, and it is expected to stabilize in November. - **Demand**: In October, the apparent consumption of refined copper in China is estimated to have declined year - on - year, and the apparent consumption in November is expected to continue to decline year - on - year. Overseas manufacturing prosperity is differentiated, and demand expectations are neutral. - **Imports and Exports**: In October, the export window for进料加工 of SHFE copper opened, the price difference between US copper and LME copper narrowed, and the arbitrage window for US copper closed. - **Inventory**: In October, the inventories of SHFE, bonded areas, and COMEX increased, while LME inventory decreased, and the total inventory rose. It is estimated that China's inventory will not change much in November. [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Market Review**: In October, copper prices fluctuated upwards. Supply disruptions in copper mines, progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations drove copper prices to hit record highs. During the month, the main contract of SHFE copper rose 4.69%, and the LME 3M contract rose 5.78%. The US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly. At the beginning of November, copper prices fell from record highs. - **Price Differences between Markets**: In October, the import loss of SHFE copper first widened and then narrowed, and the export window opened once. At the beginning of November, the import loss further narrowed. In October, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper fluctuated and declined. Although the expectation of future tariffs continued to support the price difference, the continuous inventory build - up in COMEX gradually closed the import arbitrage window. - **Inventory and Basis**: As of the end of October, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 680,000 tons, an increase of 67,000 tons from the end of September. The total inventory was at a relatively high level in recent years, but there were still structural inventory problems (COMEX inventory accounted for a high proportion, about 47.5%). LME copper inventory decreased, and COMEX copper inventory continued to rise. In terms of basis, in October, the Cash/3M in the LME market first rose and then fell; the domestic basis first rose and then declined, and at the beginning of November, the spot price had a slight premium over the futures price. - **Fund Sentiment**: As of the end of October, the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds increased, and the sentiment remained relatively positive. The position of SHFE copper first rose and then fell, and the current position was still at a relatively high level, with intense long - short games. In November, the impact on market sentiment is expected to mainly come from inventory and changes in US policies. [17][20][23][26][29] 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Copper Mine**: The copper mine production of 17 medium - and large - sized copper mine enterprises in Q3 was about 3.497 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. Mine accidents, ore grade problems, etc. led to production falling short of expectations, and the year - on - year decline in mine production in Q4 is expected to further expand. In September, Chile's copper production decreased year - on - year and rebounded month - on - month, and the production was at a low level. In October, the inventory of copper concentrates at major ports in China first decreased and then increased, and the spot supply at ports was first tight and then loose. In terms of processing fees, the spot TC of copper concentrates fluctuated and declined in October, and the spot TC at the end of October was reported at around - 42 US dollars/ton. In November, it is the time for long - term contract negotiations, and it is expected that both supply and demand sides will be in a stalemate. [34][37] - **Supply - Refined Copper**: In October, the processing fee for domestic blister copper turned up, and the rise in copper prices drove up the processing fee. The supply of raw materials for refined copper production was marginally relaxed. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting in mainstream domestic regions, fluctuated and rebounded, remaining at a relatively high level, making a positive contribution to smelting revenue. In October, the number of smelter maintenance activities increased, and China's refined copper production continued to decline month - on - month. In November, the impact of copper smelter maintenance is still there but is decreasing marginally. Coupled with the increase in the number of scrap copper to produce blister copper/anode plates due to the rise in copper prices, refined copper production is expected to stabilize. [42][44] - **Supply - Recycled Copper**: In October, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 3,580 yuan/ton, widening month - on - month. Without the full implementation of local tax refund policies, scrap copper had a good substitution advantage. In October, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises fluctuated and rebounded. The widening of the refined - scrap price difference and the marginal easing of policy impacts in some regions drove the operating rate to rebound, increasing the substitution for refined copper. [48] - **Demand - China**: Assuming a decrease in net imports, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper in October is estimated to be 1.321 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase of 0.3%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent consumption was about 13.674 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. From the perspective of leading economic indicators, both the official manufacturing PMI and the Caixin manufacturing PMI in China weakened month - on - month in October, and the manufacturing prosperity weakened marginally. In the first nine months of 2025, China's copper product output increased by about 9.6%, and the growth rate declined month - on - month. According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper products weakened in October and is expected to rebound in November. In October, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises was weak, and the average operating rate was lower than that of the same period last year. The current operating level has not returned to the level before the National Day. The operating conditions of domestic wire and cable enterprises in October were weaker than expected, and the operating rate is expected to rebound in November. In September, the year - on - year decline in power investment (power source + power grid) continued, and the decline slightly expanded. The newly installed photovoltaic capacity continued to decline year - on - year and increased month - on - month, while the newly installed wind power capacity declined month - on - month. Near the end of the year, relevant demand is expected to improve marginally. High - frequency data shows that in October, domestic real estate transaction data was weaker than that of the same period last year, and the production scheduling of household appliances at the back - end of the real estate market remained weak; the high - frequency sales performance of automobiles in October was strong. [51][54][57][60][65] - **Demand - Overseas**: In October, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas developed economies was differentiated. India, the Eurozone, and the UK improved, while the manufacturing prosperity of the US and Japan weakened. According to ICSG data, in August 2025, the global refined copper consumption decreased month - on - month and continued to increase year - on - year. From January to August, consumption increased by about 5.9%. [68] 3.4 Macro Analysis - The US government shutdown led to the postponement of the release of non - farm data. Recently released ADP data and the number of corporate layoffs show that the US job market is weak. In September, inflation rose and core inflation declined. Due to the lack of data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has decreased, but the probability is still close to 70%. At the same time, the Fed will stop shrinking its balance sheet on December 1st, and the marginal loosening direction of the policy remains unchanged. - In October, the US dollar index rebounded and is still oscillating within the range; the 10 - year inflation expectation in the US is running weakly, still deviating from the copper price trend. [72][74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In October, aluminum prices strengthened both domestically and internationally, with SHFE aluminum rising 2.01% and LME aluminum rising 7.56% and hitting a new high for the year. Fundamentally, concerns about supply have been triggered by the shutdown or production cuts of overseas aluminum plants, and domestic inventories remain relatively low. Against the backdrop of the expected easing of the global trade situation and the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut, supply - side disturbances and the improvement of domestic export expectations may drive aluminum prices higher. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the support of domestic inventory changes for prices. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be between 20,800 - 22,500 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M aluminum is expected to be between 2,750 - 3,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of October, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with the industry's monthly operating rate remaining stable. In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the overseas output was 2.59 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month. The domestic molten aluminum ratio rebounded by 1.4% month - on - month [11][12]. - Inventory & Spot: At the end of October, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 605,000 tons, up 18,000 tons month - on - month; the bonded area inventory was 68,000 tons, down 19,000 tons month - on - month; the total inventory of aluminum rods was 153,000 tons, up 29,000 tons month - on - month; the LME global aluminum inventory was 554,000 tons, up 43,000 tons month - on - month, at a low level in the same period of previous years. The spot discount of domestic East China aluminum ingots to futures was 15 yuan/ton, and the LME market Cash/3M discount was 4.6 US dollars/ton [11][12]. - Imports and Exports: In September 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 247,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.5% and a year - on - year increase of 80.0%. In October, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6%. As the domestic import loss widens, the export expectation of aluminum products is expected to improve significantly [11][12]. - Demand: In October, the overall downstream demand for aluminum in China was stable with a slight decline, showing a differentiated trend. The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises gradually decreased from 62.5% at the beginning of the month to 62.2% at the end of the month, generally remaining at a relatively high level. From the middle to the end of the month, the industry transitioned from the peak season to the off - season, and the continuous rise in aluminum prices restricted downstream demand growth. It is expected that the subsequent operating rate will decline slowly or fluctuate within a narrow range [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: In October, SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly, rising 2.01% for the month, and LME aluminum rose 7.56%. As of November 7, SHFE aluminum reached a maximum of over 21,700 yuan/ton [20]. - Term Spread: In October, the spread between the first and third contracts of SHFE aluminum changed from a premium to a discount [25]. - Spot Basis: In October, the spot prices in South China and Central China were at a discount to futures for most of the time, while the price in East China changed from a premium to a discount in the middle of the month [28]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: In October, the spot price in East China strengthened relatively [31]. - LME Premium and Discount: In October, the LME aluminum Cash/3M premium and discount first rose and then fell [35]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: In October, the smelting profit of primary aluminum increased by 11.4% month - on - month compared with September, reaching a historical high [40]. - Inventory: - Electrolytic Aluminum: At the end of October, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 605,000 tons, up 18,000 tons month - on - month, and the inventory continued to fluctuate in early November. The bonded area inventory was 68,000 tons, down 19,000 tons month - on - month [46]. - Aluminum Rods: At the end of October, the total inventory of aluminum rods was 153,000 tons, up 29,000 tons month - on - month [51]. - LME Inventory: In September, the proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased [61]. 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite: In October, the prices of domestic and overseas bauxite remained stable [68]. - Alumina: In October, the domestic alumina price decreased by 103 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the import price decreased by 5 US dollars/ton [71]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: In October, the price of anodes in the South increased by 70 yuan/ton compared with September, and the price of thermal coal increased by 70 yuan/ton month - on - month [75]. 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In October, the monthly output of alumina was 7.785 million tons, an increase of 39,000 tons compared with September and a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [81]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with the industry's monthly operating rate remaining stable. In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the overseas output was 2.59 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month [84]. - Molten Aluminum Ratio: In October, the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased month - on - month. The domestic molten aluminum ratio rebounded by 1.4% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [87]. - Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum: In October, the electrolytic aluminum output of each province increased compared with September [92]. 3.6 Demand Side - Downstream Production: In September, China's aluminum product output was 5.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%; the cumulative output from January to September was 49.767 million tons, basically the same as the previous year. As of November 3, the daily delivery volume of aluminum ingots was 127,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease [96]. - Downstream Operating Rate: In September, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils increased. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum rods increased month - on - month, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots also increased. In October, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys widened by 203 yuan/ton month - on - month [103][106][109]. - Terminal Demand: The production schedules of the three major white goods in November 2025 showed a decline. The current real - estate data was weak, automobile production and sales were acceptable, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules decreased slightly [113]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - Primary Aluminum: In September 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 247,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.5% and a year - on - year increase of 80.0%. In October, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened. In October, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6% [118][125]. - Recycled Aluminum: In September 2025, the imports of recycled aluminum were 155,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.7%. The imports from January to September were 1.501 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [125]. - Bauxite: In September 2025, China's bauxite imports were 15.881 million tons, with imported ore accounting for 74.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to September were 157.305 million tons [129]. - Alumina: In September 2025, China exported 246,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month increase of 36.7% and a year - on - year increase of 82.2%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to September were 1.999 million tons [129].