Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report believes that although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and the macro - environment is bearish, the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts are still good. It is a good opportunity for left - side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - WTI主力原油期货收跌0.92美元，跌幅1.44%，报63.08美元；布伦特主力原油期货收跌0.60美元，跌幅0.90%，报66.11美元；INE主力原油期货收涨5.80元，涨幅1.19%，报495.2元 [1] - 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据显示，汽油库存累库0.36百万桶至7.66百万桶，环比累库4.95%；柴油库存累库0.36百万桶至2.25百万桶，环比累库18.97%；燃料油库存累库0.10百万桶至9.70百万桶，环比累库0.05%；总成品油累库0.72百万桶至19.62百万桶，环比累库3.81% [1] Methanol - 8月12日09合约涨2元/吨，报2391元/吨，现货涨3元/吨，基差 - 14 [4] - 国内开工再度回落，企业利润维持高位，后续供应大概率边际走高；进口卸货速度增快但港口MTO装置停车，港口累库加快；内地受烯烃外采支撑企业库存去化，整体压力较小 [4] - 甲醇估值偏高，下游需求偏弱，价格面临压力，单边受整体商品情绪影响大，建议观望 [4] Urea - 8月12日09合约涨5元/吨，报1727元/吨，现货跌20元/吨，基差 - 17 [6] - 国内开工继续回落，企业利润处于低位，后续预计逐步见底回升，开工同比仍处中高位，整体供应宽松 [6] - 国内农业需求扫尾，进入淡季；复合肥开工因秋季肥生产持续回升，后续需求集中在复合肥和出口端；国内需求整体偏弱，企业库存去化缓慢，同比仍在中高位 [6] - 尿素整体估值偏低，继续回落空间有限，倾向于逢低关注多单等待潜在利多 [6] Rubber - 工业品整体上涨，NR和RU震荡反弹 [8] - 全钢轮胎开工率同比走高，截至2025年8月7日，山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为60.98%，较上周走低0.08个百分点，较去年同期走高8.72个百分点，国内走货慢但出口表现好；国内轮胎企业半钢胎开工负荷为74.53%，较上周走低0.10个百分点，较去年同期走低4.21个百分点，半钢轮胎工厂库存有压力 [9] - 截至2025年8月3日，中国天然橡胶社会库存128.9万吨，环比下降0.48万吨，降幅0.4%；中国深色胶社会总库存为80.4万吨，环比降0.13%；中国浅色胶社会总库存为48.5万吨，环比降0.8%；截至2025年8月4日，青岛天然橡胶库存50.12（ - 0.73）万吨 [10] - 现货方面，泰标混合胶14600（ + 50）元，STR20报1805（ + 10）美元，STR20混合1800（ + 10）美元，江浙丁二烯9300（ - 50）元，华北顺丁11500（0）元 [11] - 胶价短期涨幅大，宜中性思路，快进快出；多RU2601空RU2509择机波段操作 [11] PVC - PVC09合约上涨37元，报5047元，常州SG - 5现货价4910（ + 20）元/吨，基差 - 137（ - 17）元/吨，9 - 1价差 - 146（ + 2）元/吨 [11] - 成本端电石乌海报价2325（ - 15）元/吨，兰炭中料价格620（0）元/吨，乙烯825（ + 5）美元/吨，烧碱现货800（0）元/吨；PVC整体开工率79.5%，环比上升2.6%；其中电石法78.7%，环比上升2.6%；乙烯法81.5%，环比上升2.5% [11] - 需求端整体下游开工42.9%，环比上升0.8%；厂内库存33.7万吨（ - 0.8），社会库存77.7万吨（ + 5.4） [11] - 企业综合利润上升至年内高点，估值压力大，检修量减少，产量处五年期高位，短期多套装置投产，下游国内开工处五年期低位，出口方面印度反倾销政策延期，雨季末期可能抢出口，成本端电石企稳但难支撑估值；整体供强需弱且高估值，基本面差，需观察后续出口能否扭转国内累库格局，短期跟随黑色情绪反复，建议观望 [11] Styrene - 现货价格上涨，期货价格上涨，基差走弱；市场宏观情绪好，成本端有支撑，目前BZN价差处同期较低水平，向上修复空间大；成本端纯苯开工小幅回落但供应量偏多，供应端乙苯脱氢利润上涨，苯乙烯开工持续上行；苯乙烯港口库存持续大幅去库，季节性淡季需求端三S整体开工率震荡下降 [13][14] - 短期BZN或将修复，待港口库存高位去化后，苯乙烯价格或将跟随成本端震荡上行 [14] - 基本面方面，成本端华东纯苯6180元/吨，上涨20元/吨；苯乙烯现货7375元/吨，上涨50元/吨；苯乙烯活跃合约收盘价7322元/吨，上涨72元/吨；基差53元/吨，走弱22元/吨；BZN价差182元/吨，上涨5.5元/吨；EB非一体化装置利润 - 443.7元/吨，上涨54.2元/吨；EB连1 - 连2价差69元/吨，缩小19元/吨；供应端上游开工率77.7%，下降1.20%；江苏港口库存15.90万吨，去库0.50万吨；需求端三S加权开工率39.09%，下降0.85%；PS开工率55.00%，上涨1.70%，EPS开工率43.67%，下降10.58%，ABS开工率71.10%，上涨5.20% [14] Polyolefins Polyethylene - 期货价格上涨，市场期待中国财政部三季度利好政策，成本端有支撑，聚乙烯现货价格上涨，PE估值向下空间有限；贸易商库存高位震荡，对价格支撑松动，季节性淡季需求端农膜订单低位震荡，整体开工率震荡下行 [16] - 短期矛盾从成本端主导下跌行情转移至高检修助推库存去化，8月产能投放压力大，有110万吨产能投放计划，聚乙烯价格短期内由成本端及供应端博弈 [16] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7329元/吨，上涨15元/吨，现货7300元/吨，上涨15元/吨，基差 - 29元/吨，无变动；上游开工83.44%，环比下降1.50%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存51.54万吨，环比累库8.26万吨，贸易商库存6.12万吨，环比累库0.34万吨；下游平均开工率38.9%，环比上涨0.16%；LL9 - 1价差 - 60元/吨，环比缩小10元/吨，建议空单继续持有 [16] Polypropylene - 期货价格下跌，山东地炼利润止跌反弹，开工率或将回升，丙烯供应边际回归；需求端下游开工率季节性震荡下行；8月聚丙烯仅存45万吨计划产能投放，季节性淡季供需双弱，成本端或将主导行情，预计7月聚丙烯价格跟随原油震荡偏强 [17] - 基本面看主力合约收盘价7091元/吨，下跌4元/吨，现货7110元/吨，无变动，基差19元/吨，走强4元/吨；上游开工78.22%，环比上涨0.56%；周度库存方面，生产企业库存58.71万吨，环比累库2.23万吨，贸易商库存18.73万吨，环比累库1.4万吨，港口库存6.11万吨，环比去库0.13万吨；下游平均开工率48.5%，环比上涨0.1%；LL - PP价差238元/吨，环比扩大19元/吨 [17] PX, PTA, and MEG PX - PX09合约上涨54元，报6832元，PX CFR下跌1美元，报834美元，按人民币中间价折算基差33元（ - 61），9 - 1价差84元（ + 18） [19] - PX负荷上，中国负荷82%，环比上升0.9%；亚洲负荷73.6%，环比上升0.2%；装置方面，盛虹、扬子石化负荷提升，威联石化重启，海外日本出光20万吨装置重启，韩国hanwha113万吨装置停车，SK40万吨装置重启 [19] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置方面，台化装置一套重启一套停车，嘉兴石化重启，逸盛新材负荷恢复，英力士降负荷，威联石化重启 [19][21] - 进口方面，8月上旬韩国PX出口中国11.2万吨，同比下降0.5万吨；库存方面，6月底库存413.8万吨，月环比下降21万吨；估值成本方面，PXN为267美元（ + 6），石脑油裂差79美元（ - 5） [19][20] - PX负荷维持高位，下游PTA短期检修增加，整体负荷中枢下降，但因PTA新装置投产，PX有望持续去库，估值下方有支撑，但上方空间短期受限，终端及聚酯较弱压制上游估值；估值目前中性，关注旺季来临后跟随原油逢低做多机会 [20] PTA - PTA09合约上涨20元，报4726元，华东现货上涨5元，报4705元，基差 - 13元（ - 1），9 - 1价差 - 34元（ - 8） [21] - PTA负荷74.7%，环比上升2.1%，装置情况如上述；下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [21] - 库存方面，8月1日社会库存（除信用仓单）224万吨，环比累库3.5万吨；估值和成本方面，PTA现货加工费上涨9元，至201元，盘面加工费下跌16元，至244元 [21] - 供给端8月检修量增加但有新装置投产，预期持续累库，PTA加工费运行空间有限；需求端聚酯化纤库存压力下降，下游及终端即将结束淡季，需等待订单好转；估值方面，PXN在PTA投产格局改善下有支撑向上动力，但受终端和聚酯较弱景气度影响难走扩，关注旺季下游表现好转后跟随PX逢低做多机会 [21] MEG - EG09合约上涨18元，报4432元，华东现货上涨18元，报4502元，基差76元（ + 2），9 - 1价差 - 46元（ - 3） [22] - 供给端，乙二醇负荷68.4%，环比下降0.2%，其中合成气制75.1%，环比上升1.1%；乙烯制负荷64.4%，环比下降1%；合成气制装置方面，通辽金煤重启，山西沃能检修；油化工方面，三江负荷提升，浙石化负荷下降；海外方面，马来西亚装置、沙特sharq3停车 [22] - 下游负荷88.8%，环比上升0.7%，装置整体变动小，部分化纤装置开工率适度提升；终端加弹负荷持平至70%，织机负荷下降2%至59% [22] - 进口到港预报14.1万吨，华东出港8月11日0.86万吨，出库下降；港口库存55.3万吨，累库3.7万吨；估值和成本上，石脑油制利润为 - 299元，国内乙烯制利润 - 584元，煤制利润1051元；成本端乙烯持平至820美元，榆林坑口烟煤末价格下跌至520元 [22] - 产业基本面上，海内外检修装置逐渐开启，下游开工将从淡季恢复但高度偏低，预期港口库存去化放缓；估值同比偏高，检修季结束，基本面由强转弱，短期估值有下降压力 [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market has different trends and influencing factors in various sectors. In the macro - financial sector, policies continue to support the capital market, but short - term shocks may occur. In the commodity market, the "anti - involution" sentiment has an impact on prices, and prices will gradually return to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades. Different industries have their own supply - demand relationships and price trends, and investors need to make decisions based on specific situations [3][30]. 3. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial Index Futures - **News**: Three departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and nine departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Business Entity Loans". Cambrian refuted false information, and the US July CPI data was released [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios for different periods. The trading logic is that the policy supports the capital market, and the market may fluctuate in the short - term, but the general direction is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. Relevant policies on tariff adjustment and interest subsidies were released. The central bank conducted 1146 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 461 billion yuan. - **Strategy**: The economy maintained resilience in the first half of the year, but the PMI in July was lower than expected. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but the bond market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [4][5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: The prices of domestic and international gold and silver had different trends. The US 7 - year CPI data was released, which is conducive to the Fed's further easing policy. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 766 - 787 yuan/gram, and that for Shanghai silver is 9075 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [6][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Affected by the weakening of the US dollar index, copper prices rose. LME inventory decreased, and domestic warehouse receipts increased. The spot premium in Shanghai increased, and the situation in Guangdong improved. - **Price**: In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai copper is 78800 - 80000 yuan/ton, and that for LME copper 3M is 9700 - 9900 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market**: The commodity atmosphere was strong, and aluminum prices rebounded. The inventory in China increased slightly, and the spot discount narrowed. The LME inventory increased slightly. - **Price**: The aluminum price has support, but there is also pressure from weak consumption and trade situations. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 20700 - 20900 yuan/ton, and that for LME aluminum 3M is 2590 - 2640 US dollars/ton [11]. Zinc - **Market**: The zinc price fluctuated. Zinc ore is in a loose state, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to increase. The overseas registered warehouse receipts continue to decline. - **Price**: Although the medium - term industry is in an over - supply situation, the short - term price decline is difficult due to the support of low overseas warehouse receipts [12]. Lead - **Market**: The lead price rose slightly. The port inventory of lead ore increased in August, the production of primary and secondary lead increased slightly, but the downstream consumption pressure was large. - **Price**: The short - term price decline is difficult due to the possible structural disturbance in the LME market [13]. Nickel - **Market**: The nickel price fluctuated narrowly. The price of nickel ore was stable, the sentiment in the nickel - iron market improved, but the consumption of refined nickel was still weak. - **Operation**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that for LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16500 US dollars/ton [14]. Tin - **Market**: The tin price fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase, but the short - term smelting end is still under pressure. The domestic consumption is weak, while the overseas demand is strong. - **Price**: The short - term supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton in China and 31000 - 34000 US dollars/ton in LME [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The sentiment driven by the shutdown of large domestic mines is stronger than the actual change in fundamentals. - **Operation**: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can choose the entry point according to their own operations. The reference operating range for the 2511 contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 79000 - 87000 yuan/ton [16]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index rose, driven by the strengthening of bauxite control in Shanxi and the political uncertainty in Guinea. The spot price in some areas decreased, and the import window was closed. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies after the short - term bullish sentiment fades. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: The price of the stainless - steel main contract declined slightly. The spot price in some areas changed, and the raw material price increased. The social inventory decreased. - **Trend**: The short - term market is expected to be optimistic, and the price may fluctuate strongly [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The AD2511 contract rose slightly. The spot price decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. - **Trend**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are weak. The upward space of the price is limited [20]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose. The registered warehouse receipts increased, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil was increasing. The supply and demand of rebar increased, while those of hot - rolled coil decreased. - **Outlook**: If the demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the demand recovery and cost support [22][23]. Iron Ore - **Market**: The price of the iron - ore main contract rose. The overseas shipment and arrival volume decreased, the iron - water output decreased slightly, and the port inventory fluctuated slightly. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure is not significant in the short - term, and the demand has support. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal demand changes [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The price of glass decreased. The inventory increased, and the demand from the real - estate sector has not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term trend depends on policies and demand [26]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash increased. The inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the long - term price center may rise, but the upward space is limited [27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: The manganese - silicon main contract rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract declined slightly. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, and hedging positions can participate. The future demand of the black sector may weaken [28][29][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand can provide some support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [32][33][34]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon declined. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and both long and short positions should be cautious [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU rebounded. The long and short sides have different views. The tire - making industry has different operating rates, and the inventory decreased. - **Operation**: It is recommended to take a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [37][38][41]. Crude Oil - **Market**: WTI and Brent crude oil futures declined, while INE crude oil futures rose. The inventory of refined oil products in Fujeirah Port increased. - **Viewpoint**: The current oil price is undervalued, and it is a good opportunity for left - hand layout. If the geopolitical premium reappears, the oil price may rise [42]. Methanol - **Market**: The 09 contract of methanol rose. The domestic start - up rate declined, the enterprise profit was high, and the port inventory increased. - **Strategy**: The methanol valuation is high, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. Urea - **Market**: The 09 contract of urea rose. The domestic start - up rate declined, the enterprise profit was low, and the demand was weak. - **Strategy**: The urea valuation is low, and it is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [44][45]. Styrene - **Market**: The spot and futures prices of styrene rose, and the basis weakened. The cost support exists, the supply increased, and the demand decreased. - **Trend**: The BZN may be repaired, and the price may rise with the cost after the port inventory is reduced [46]. PVC - **Market**: The PVC09 contract rose. The cost of calcium carbide decreased, and the ethylene cost increased. The supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the inventory increased. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the export situation [48]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The EG09 contract rose. The supply and demand changed slightly, and the port inventory increased. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals will weaken in the short - term, and the valuation may decline [49][50]. PTA - **Market**: The PTA09 contract rose. The production and demand increased slightly, and the inventory accumulated. - **Strategy**: The PTA processing fee space is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX in the peak season [51]. Para - xylene - **Market**: The PX09 contract rose. The load increased, the downstream PTA had short - term maintenance, and the inventory decreased. - **Viewpoint**: The valuation has support, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the peak season [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The PE futures price rose. The market expects favorable policies, the cost supports, the inventory is high, and the demand is weak. - **Trend**: The price will be determined by the game between the cost and supply in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short positions [53][54]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The PP futures price declined. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. - **Trend**: The price may follow the crude - oil price and fluctuate strongly in July [55]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: The domestic pig price was stable with slight fluctuations. The spot and futures prices deviated. The current inventory release can relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips for medium - and long - term contracts, and pay attention to the inter - month reverse spread for far - month contracts [57]. Eggs - **Market**: The national egg price was mostly stable with slight increases in some areas. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was average. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may fluctuate, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: The price of US soybeans rose at the low point. The rapeseed meal reversed, and the soybean meal was driven up. The import of Canadian rapeseed was restricted. - **Strategy**: The soybean market is mixed. It is recommended to buy on dips in the low - cost range and pay attention to relevant factors [59][60]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: The domestic palm oil continued to rise, and the rapeseed oil rose due to the anti - dumping ruling. The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals support the oil price center. The palm oil price may be stable in the short - term and rise in the fourth quarter, but the upward space is limited [61][63]. Sugar - **Market**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The export of Brazilian sugar increased in the first week of August. - **Outlook**: The international and domestic sugar supply is expected to increase, and the Zhengzhou sugar price may continue to decline [64]. Cotton - **Market**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The Sino - US tariff suspension continued for 90 days. The downstream consumption was average, and the inventory removal slowed down. - **Trend**: The short - term price may fluctuate at a high level [65].

黑色建材日报 2025-08-13 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3258 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 8 元/吨（0.246%）。当日注册仓单 96754 吨, 环 比增加 1197 吨。主力合约持仓量为 160.5388 万手，环比减少 7237 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3360 元/吨, 环比增加 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3370 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3484 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 19 元/吨（0.548%）。 当日注册仓单 78386 吨, 环比增加 8925 吨。主力合约持仓量为 138.156 万手，环 ...

农产品早报 2025-08-13 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 【重要资讯】 周二夜盘美豆低点上涨约 3%，USDA 意外大幅调低种植面积 250 万英亩，不过单产达历史最高 53.6 蒲/ 英亩，限制涨幅。菜粕由弱转强上演反转，情绪带动豆粕上行，商务部发布菜籽反倾销初裁结果，加拿 大菜籽进口需缴纳 75%保证金，高额保证金限制进口意愿。周一国内豆粕现货基差稳定，华东报 09-120 元/吨，豆粕成交尚可，提货较好，下游库存天数小幅上升 0.32 天至 8.37 天。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国 内压榨大豆 217.75 万吨，本周预计压榨 236.95 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨预计偏好。巴西方面，升贴水上涨后近两日稳定 ...

有色金属日报 2025-8-13 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 铅 周二沪铅指数收涨 0.21%至 16920 元/吨，单边交易总持仓 9.62 万手。截至周二下午 15：00，伦铅 3S 较前日同期跌 5.5 至 2004.5 美元/吨，总持仓 15.16 万手。SMM1#铅锭均价 16775 元/吨，再生精 铅均价 16775 元/吨，精废价差平水，废电动车电池均价 10200 元/吨。上期所铅锭期货库存录得 5.98 万吨，内盘原生基差-110 元/吨，连续合约- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The release of the US July CPI data last night is generally favorable for the Fed to implement further easing policies. With the weakening of US economic data and the easing of inflation, the Fed's implementation of further loose monetary policy is certain. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 766 - 787 yuan/gram and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 9075 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [2][4]. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) fell 0.11% to 776.28 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 0.39% to 9205.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.11% to 3402.60 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver fell 0.11% to 37.96 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.29%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.05 [2]. - The closing prices and changes of various precious metal varieties and related indicators are presented in detailed tables, including Au(T + D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF holdings, etc. For example, Au(T + D) closed at 773.17 yuan/gram, down 2.69 yuan or - 0.35% from the previous trading day [5]. US CPI Data Analysis - The US July CPI year - on - year value was 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8% and in line with the previous value, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, in line with expectations and lower than the previous value of 0.3%. The core CPI year - on - year value was 3.1%, higher than the expected 3% and the previous value of 2.9%, and the month - on - month value was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.2% [2]. - The lower - than - expected overall CPI in July was due to the decline in oil prices, and the higher - than - expected core CPI was due to the "sudden" increase in used - car inflation compared to the previous month, along with the impact of imported inflation on household prices. In terms of overall CPI, the energy - related CPI year - on - year value decreased by 1.6%, and the month - on - month value decreased by 1.1%, mainly driven by the decline in oil prices. In terms of core inflation, the housing inflation with a high proportion continued to decline slowly, and the used - car price index year - on - year value in July was 4.8%, significantly higher than the previous value of 2.8%, and the month - on - month value rose from - 0.7% in June to + 0.5%, which was the main contributor to the higher - than - expected core CPI year - on - year value [3]. Market Outlook and Strategy - With the weakening of US economic data and the easing of inflation, the Fed's implementation of further loose monetary policy is certain. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold being 766 - 787 yuan/gram and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver being 9075 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [4]. Data Graphs and Analysis - Multiple graphs are presented, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and the US dollar index, the relationship between COMEX gold price and real interest rate, the price and volume relationship of Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver, the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and silver, the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds, the total holdings of gold and silver ETFs, and the internal and external price differences of gold and silver [12][22][41].

专题报告 2025-08-12 烧碱：多重因素驱动期价走弱 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 核心观点：累库持续叠加交割博弈，期价短期走弱 近期，烧碱期价持续走弱，烧碱 2509 合约自 7 月 24 日高点 2757 元/吨下跌至最低 2412 元/吨。主要受三个因素影响：一是检修高峰期过后产能逐步回归，周度产品攀升至年内新高， 叠加当前非铝需求淡季，导致液碱库存持续增加；二是近期液氯价格反弹，液碱生产利润回升， 期价下方空间较前期走扩；三是仓单注册量增加，交割博弈驱动烧碱期价单边和月差同步下跌。 行情展望，进入 8 月下旬后，根据当前检修计划表，秋季常规检修预计将导致烧碱产量出 现阶段性下滑。非铝需求方面，非铝需求 9 月存旺季预期，后续需跟踪非铝下游开工情况；氧 化铝需求方面，下半年氧化铝投产驱动的备碱需求预计将有所下滑，但新装置日常耗碱对需求 仍有支撑。策略上，短期建议观望为主，在仓单压 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints - In the macro - financial sector, the policy shows care for the capital market. The stock market may experience increased short - term volatility but is mainly a dip - buying opportunity. The bond market is expected to see interest rates decline in the long run, with short - term fluctuations [3][6]. - For precious metals, although there are short - term disturbances from tariff expectations, the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy is the main driver. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, copper, aluminum, and other metals have different price trends. Some metals are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, while others are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and policy [11][12]. - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may face downward pressure if demand cannot be effectively repaired. The focus of the black sector is on coking coal, and iron ore fluctuates with sentiment and fundamentals [24][26]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different trends. For example, crude oil is considered undervalued and a good left - hand layout opportunity, while some products like PVC and PTA face supply - demand and valuation challenges [43][48]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products such as pigs, eggs, and sugar have different price trends and trading suggestions based on supply - demand and market sentiment [57][58]. Summaries by Directory Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited opinions on the draft of the Regulations for the Implementation of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China. In July, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The draft of the Regulations on Promoting the Development of Embodied Intelligent Robot Industry in Hangzhou was open for public comments. The Central Settlement Company simplified the investment process for overseas central bank - type institutions [2]. - **Trading Logic**: The policy shows care for the capital market. After a previous continuous rise, the market may experience increased short - term volatility, but the general idea is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. The central bank conducted 1120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4328 billion yuan on the day [4][5]. - **Strategy**: The economy maintained resilience in the first half of the year, but export pressure may increase in the future. The central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Domestic and international gold and silver prices declined. The market's expectation of US gold import tariffs was falsified, leading to a short - term decline in precious metal prices [7]. - **Strategy**: Although there are short - term disturbances, the marginal loosening of the Fed's monetary policy is the main driver. It is recommended to buy on dips, with reference ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts provided [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices fluctuated and declined. LME inventory decreased, and the cash/3M spread was at a discount. Domestic social inventory slightly declined, and the spot premium increased. The import loss was about 100 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [10]. - **Price Outlook**: Under the expectation of Fed rate cuts, there is support from the emotional side. Copper raw material supply is tight in the short term, but the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs forms upward pressure. Short - term copper prices may be volatile and strong [11]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the LME inventory also increased. The spot was at a discount, and the downstream was in a wait - and - see state [12]. - **Price Outlook**: The market sentiment is neutral and positive. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a relatively low level, and external demand is resilient, but there is pressure from weak downstream consumption and trade uncertainties. Short - term aluminum prices may be volatile [12]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices rose slightly. Zinc ore is in a loose state, domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to increase, and downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement. The LME market has structural disturbances [13]. - **Price Outlook**: Although the mid - term industry is in an oversupply situation, the low LME warehouse receipts support short - term zinc prices, making it difficult for them to decline [13]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore port inventory increased in August, and the supply side narrowed slightly. Downstream consumption pressure is large, and the battery factory's operating rate declined rapidly [14][15]. - **Price Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to show a weak and volatile trend [15]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices fluctuated and rose. The supply of nickel ore is gradually recovering, and the nickel - iron market sentiment has improved, but the oversupply pressure still exists. The spot market trading of refined nickel is average [16]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term macro sentiment is positive, but downstream demand improvement is limited, and prices still have correction pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices fluctuated and rose. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase significantly in the fourth quarter, and the start - up rate has rebounded slightly. Downstream is in the off - season, and demand is weak. Social inventory decreased slightly last week [17]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term supply and demand are both weak. With the continuous progress of resumption in Myanmar, the upward space for tin prices is limited [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose significantly, and the futures contract limit up. The market expects a shortage of domestic lithium carbonate supply due to the suspension of a lithium mine [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can seize appropriate entry points according to their own operations [18]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index rose slightly, and the spot price remained unchanged. The import window is closed, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [19]. - **Strategy**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high levels according to market sentiment, and pay attention to warehouse receipt registration and supply - side policies [19]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices rose. Social inventory decreased, and some specifications were in short supply. Raw material prices remained stable [20]. - **Price Outlook**: With the change of seasons and the improvement of the macro environment, stainless steel prices may be volatile and strong in August [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The AD2511 contract rose slightly, and the spot price decreased slightly. The trading volume was low, and the inventory increased [21]. - **Price Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, and supply and demand are both weak. The upward space for prices is limited due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and social inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, and inventory accumulation was significant [23][24]. - **Price Outlook**: Market sentiment is becoming more rational, and if demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of terminal demand repair and cost support [24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased. Steel mill iron water production decreased slightly, and port inventory fluctuated slightly [25][26]. - **Price Outlook**: The supply pressure is not significant during the traditional shipping off - season. There is still demand support, and it is necessary to pay attention to terminal demand changes [26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Spot prices declined, and inventory increased. Market sentiment cooled down, and glass prices significantly corrected. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the long term, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Spot prices were stable, and inventory increased slightly. Supply increased, and downstream procurement slowed down. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rebounded. The spot prices were stable, and the basis was positive [29]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, and hedging positions can participate at appropriate times. The market is affected by emotions in the short term, and prices will gradually return to fundamentals in the long term [31][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices rose. The spot price increased, and the basis was positive. The supply is expected to increase in August, and demand can provide some support. It is expected to be volatile and weak, and attention should be paid to industry policies [34][35]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices rose. The spot price was stable, and the basis was negative. Supply is expected to increase in August, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to be cautious in trading, and prices are expected to be volatile in a wide range [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU fluctuated and rebounded. The market has different views on the rise and fall, with the long side emphasizing production reduction and demand improvement, and the short side emphasizing uncertain macro expectations and off - season demand [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral attitude, operate quickly in and out, and consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [42]. Crude Oil - **Market**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose, while INE crude oil prices declined. Chinese crude oil and refined product inventories increased [43]. - **Outlook**: Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared and the macro environment is bearish, oil prices are undervalued and are a good left - hand layout opportunity [43]. Methanol - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price fell. Domestic production decreased again, and port inventory increased rapidly [44]. - **Strategy**: Methanol valuation is high, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short as a variety in the sector [44]. Urea - **Market**: Futures prices fell, and the spot price also fell. Domestic production continued to decline, and demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [45]. - **Strategy**: Urea valuation is low, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to going long at low levels [45]. Styrene - **Market**: Spot prices were unchanged, and futures prices rose. The cost side has support, and the BZN spread is at a low level and has upward repair space [46]. - **Price Outlook**: The BZN spread may repair, and after the high - level inventory in ports is reduced, styrene prices may follow the cost side and rise [47]. PVC - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was stable. Production increased, and downstream demand was weak. Inventory increased, and the valuation pressure was large [48]. - **Price Outlook**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. It is necessary to pay attention to whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory situation [48]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price also rose. Supply declined slightly, and downstream demand increased slightly. Port inventory increased [49]. - **Price Outlook**: The fundamentals may turn weak, and the short - term valuation has a downward pressure [49]. PTA - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price also rose. Supply is expected to increase in August, and inventory may continue to accumulate. Demand is about to end the off - season [50][51]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long with PX at low levels in the peak season [51]. p - Xylene - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the CFR price also rose. PX load is at a high level, and downstream PTA short - term maintenance increased. Inventory may continue to decline [52]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long with crude oil at low levels in the peak season [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was unchanged. The market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance. Trade inventory is at a high level, and demand is in the off - season [53]. - **Price Outlook**: In the short term, the price will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: Futures prices rose. Shandong refinery profits rebounded, and the supply of propylene may increase. Demand is in the off - season [54]. - **Price Outlook**: In July, prices may follow crude oil and be volatile and strong [54]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market**: Hog prices were mixed. The spot price continued to weaken, and the trading average weight decreased. The release of current inventory can relieve the supply pressure in the third and fourth quarters [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on medium - and long - term contracts on dips, and pay attention to the opportunity of inter - month reverse arbitrage for far - month contracts [57]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were mostly stable, and a few areas rose slightly. The supply was still sufficient, and the downstream digestion speed was average [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term market may fluctuate, and in the medium term, pay attention to the opportunity of shorting after the price rebounds [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose, and domestic soybean meal fell slightly. The spot basis was stable, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on soybean meal at low levels in the cost range, and pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [60]. Fats and Oils - **Market**: Palm oil prices rose sharply. Supported by the expected B50 policy in Indonesia, demand is stable, and Southeast Asian inventory is low [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: The central price of fats and oils is supported, but the upward space is limited. Palm oil prices may be stable in the short term and have an upward expectation in the fourth quarter [62]. Sugar - **Market**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were volatile. Brazilian port sugar - waiting - to - be - shipped quantity increased slightly, and the export volume to China decreased [63][64]. - **Price Outlook**: International and domestic sugar supplies are expected to increase, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64]. Cotton - **Market**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were volatile. The spot price decreased slightly, and the basis increased. Spinning and weaving factory operating rates decreased, and inventory decreased [65]. - **Price Outlook**: The Sino - US economic and trade agreement has not been finalized, and the market is bearish. The short - term trend is bearish [65].

（3）金融期权策略与建议：对于ETF期权来说，适合构建备兑策略和偏中性的双卖策略，垂直价差组合策略；对于 股指期权来说，适合构建偏中性的双卖策略和期权合成期货多头或空头与期货空头或多头做套利策略。 金融期权 2025-08-12 金融期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金融期权策略早报概要： （1）股市短评：上证综指数、大盘蓝筹股、中小盘股和创业板股表现为偏多上涨的市场行情。 （2）金融期权波动性分析：金融期权隐含波动率逐渐下降至均值较低水平平波动。 表1：金融市场重要指数概况 | 重要指数 | 指数代码 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 额变化 | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ...

金属期权 2025-08-12 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属偏多上行，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系持续上升后大幅度 下跌回落波动剧烈，适合构建做空波动率组合策略；（3）贵金属高位盘整震荡，构建现货避险策略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | ...