Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The heavy oil crack spread can be taken profit, and crude oil can be bought on dips in the shale oil break - even cost range [2] - The current valuation of methanol is low, and its pattern will improve marginally next year. Although there are still short - term negative pressures, it has the feasibility of buying on dips due to the geopolitical instability in Iran [4] - The current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference of urea has opened the import window, and with the expectation of improved start - up at the end of January, the fundamental negative expectation of urea is coming, so it should be short - allocated on rallies [5] - The chemical sector may fluctuate or decline after the rise. The seasonality of rubber is weak, and it is necessary to guard against the decline of RU. Currently, a neutral - bearish mindset is adopted, with short - term trading on the disk and quick entry and exit. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - selling mindset should be adopted. It is recommended to partially build a position by buying the main contract of NR and short - selling RU2609 [10] - The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong domestic supply and weak demand. In the short term, electricity price expectations, rush - to - export, and strong commodity sentiment support PVC. In the medium term, the idea of short - allocating on rallies should be maintained before substantial production cuts in the industry [14] - The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and profits can be gradually taken [17] - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed out. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and there is still room for the PE valuation to decline. In the medium term, with no further production cuts in China, the valuation is expected to be compressed [20] - In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure of polypropylene is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward trends to production mismatches. It is advisable to buy on dips the spread between PP5 and PP9 [23] - Currently, PX maintains a high load, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to maintain an inventory - building pattern before the maintenance season. The medium - term pattern is good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips following crude oil [25] - PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - building stage. In the short term, it is necessary to guard against the risk of processing fee correction, and there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Medium - term attention should be paid to buying on dips opportunities and grasping the rhythm [30] - In the industrial fundamentals of ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory - building cycle will continue. In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory - building and high start - up. The valuation is currently high compared to the same period, and in the medium term, the valuation is expected to be compressed without further production cuts in China [32] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On January 29, 2026, the main INE crude oil futures closed up 11.20 yuan/barrel, a 2.49% increase, at 460.30 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed up 60.00 yuan/ton, a 2.23% increase, at 2751.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 73.00 yuan/ton, a 2.31% increase, at 3232.00 yuan/ton [1] Methanol - On January 29, 2026, the regional spot prices in Jiangsu, Lunan, Henan, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 33 yuan/ton, 7.5 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 12.5 yuan/ton respectively, while that in Hebei remained unchanged. The main futures contract increased by 33.00 yuan/ton to 2339 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 65 yuan [3] Urea - On January 29, 2026, the regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Hebei, Hubei, Shanxi, and Northeast China remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 49 yuan/ton. The main futures contract increased by 9 yuan/ton to 1799 yuan/ton [5] Rubber - On January 29, 2026, the chemical sector oscillated downward, with butadiene rubber and natural rubber (RU) falling. The sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be due to large - scale allocation of long positions in the chemical sector by macro funds, the expected increase in the cost of naphtha and butadiene due to the expected naphtha consumption tax policy, and the expected reduction in butadiene production, as well as the increase in butadiene exports due to spot demand in South Korea. The inventory at East China ports decreased significantly. The long - side of natural rubber believes that the rubber production in Southeast Asia may be limited, and the seasonality usually turns upward in the second half of the year, with improved demand expectations in China. The short - side believes that the macro - expectations are uncertain, and supply is increasing while demand is in the seasonal off - season [7] PVC - On January 29, 2026, the PVC05 contract increased by 2 yuan to 4913 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4700 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 213 (- 12) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 112 (+5) yuan/ton. The overall PVC start - up rate was 78.7%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period. The downstream start - up rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 30.8 tons (- 0.3), and the social inventory was 117.8 tons (+3.3) [12] Pure Benzene & Styrene - On January 29, 2026, the cost - side East China pure benzene price was 5960 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6130 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price remained unchanged at 7900 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7785 yuan/ton, an increase of 136 yuan/ton; the basis was 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 136 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 69.63%, a decrease of 1.23%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 tons to 9.35 tons. The weighted start - up rate of the three S products was 42.40%, an increase of 0.49%. The PS start - up rate was 57.30%, a decrease of 0.10%, the EPS start - up rate was 58.71%, an increase of 4.65%, and the ABS start - up rate was 66.80%, a decrease of 3.00% [16] Polyethylene - On January 29, 2026, the closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6967 yuan/ton, an increase of 68 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6825 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 142 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the trader inventory remained unchanged at 2.92 tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton [19] Polypropylene - On January 29, 2026, the closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6778 yuan/ton, an increase of 69 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6655 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton. The basis was - 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton. The upstream start - up rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous period. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.67 tons to 43.1 tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.08 tons to 19.39 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 tons to 7.06 tons. The downstream average start - up rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 189 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at - 36 yuan/ton [21][22] PX - On January 29, 2026, the PX03 contract increased by 106 yuan to 7392 yuan, and the PX CFR increased by 21 dollars to 924 dollars. The basis was 37 yuan (+52), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 124 yuan (- 34). The PX load in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decrease from the previous period; the Asian load was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous period. Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and the South Korean GS device restarted. The PTA load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. In January, the export of South Korean PX to China in the first and middle ten - days was 21.5 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8 tons. The inventory at the end of November was 446 tons, a 6 - ton increase from the previous month [24] PTA - On January 29, 2026, the PTA05 contract increased by 112 yuan to 5370 yuan, and the East China spot price increased by 10 yuan to 5235 yuan. The basis was - 80 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 6 yuan (- 10). The PTA load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period. The downstream load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease from the previous period. The terminal texturing load decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom load decreased by 6% to 49%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 23 was 208.3 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 94 yuan to 362 yuan, and the disk processing fee increased by 42 yuan to 521 yuan [27] Ethylene Glycol - On January 29, 2026, the EG05 contract increased by 32 yuan to 3970 yuan, and the East China spot price decreased by 8 yuan to 3835 yuan. The basis was - 118 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 96 yuan (- 4). The ethylene glycol load was 73%, a 1.4% decrease from the previous period. The downstream load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decrease from the previous period. The terminal texturing load decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom load decreased by 6% to 49%. The import arrival forecast was 14.7 tons, and the East China departure was 1.51 tons on January 27. The port inventory was 85.8 tons, a 6.3 - ton increase from the previous period. The naphtha - based production profit was - 840 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 534 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 352 yuan. The ethylene price decreased to 700 dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth steam coal price decreased to 530 yuan [31]

黑色建材日报 2026-01-28 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3126 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 17 元/吨（-0.54%）。当日注册仓单 17283 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 171.47 万手，环比减少 16197 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价 格为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3289 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 13 元/吨（-0.39%）。 当日注册仓单 179126 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 150.84 万手，环比减少 6369 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3290 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 【策略观点】 昨日商品市场整体情绪较好，成材价格继续在底部区间内震荡。基本面方面，热轧卷板供需双双回落，库 存水平逐步下降并趋 ...

五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 有色金属日报 2026-1-28 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 铝 【行情资讯】 美元指数下挫，国际金价续创新高，油价上涨，铝价震荡上行，昨日伦铝收盘涨 0.53%至 3212 美元 /吨，沪铝主力合约收至 24350 元/吨。昨日沪铝加权合约持仓量减少 1.5 至 71.7 万手，期货仓单 微降至 14.1 万吨。国内铝锭三地库存环比小幅增加，铝棒库存环比略增，昨日铝棒加工费继续抬 升，成交一般 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and as the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [4]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive future macro - economic expectations, the cotton price still has room to rise. However, due to the excessive short - term increase, it needs time to digest. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then choose the opportunity to go long [10]. - For protein meal, affected by the sudden news from Canada, the rapeseed meal price rebounded. The January USDA report data was slightly bearish as the production forecasts of the US and Brazil increased slightly month - on - month, and the US export volume decreased slightly. But the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/2025 season. From the weekly sample data, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [14]. - For oils and fats, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in the palm oil production in Malaysia in January, the oil and fat prices rose significantly yesterday. On the other hand, the inventories of the three major domestic oils and fats have been decreasing month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then try to go long [19]. - For eggs, the pre - holiday stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations. The near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly, but the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand - side expectations are about to be realized. The near - month contracts have post - holiday characteristics and may fluctuate. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end contracts are affected by the peak of production capacity and have long - term positive expectations, but after giving profits too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [21]. - For pigs, the demand support and the market's reluctant - to - sell sentiment caused by the high fat - to - standard pig price difference support the limited short - term decline of the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - holiday supply release have led to the early weakness of the futures market. Considering the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory postponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Due to the limited reduction of production capacity, the improvement space of the far - end fundamentals has been revised down. Pay attention to the support at the lower level after the long - term decline [24]. Summary by Category Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,250 - 5,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - According to UNICA data, in the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/2026 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder. In 2025, the cumulative imports were 1.1888 million tons. According to the data released by the Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), as of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3]. Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,953 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - According to the data released by the Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab), as of January 24, the planting rate of cotton in the 2025/2026 season in Brazil was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, as of the week of January 23, the operating rate of spinning mills was 64.6%, unchanged from the previous week and an increase of 26.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons year - on - year. According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/2026 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. Among them, the January forecast for US production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December forecast, the export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The production forecast for Brazil remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; the production forecast for India was reduced by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; the production forecast for China was increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. According to USDA data, from January 8 to January 15, the US current - year cotton export sales were 97,300 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.72 million tons, a decrease of 166,000 tons year - on - year; among them, the export to China in that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 88,600 tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons year - on - year [7][9]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,271 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was reported at 3,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was reported at 2,470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [12]. - According to foreign media reports, Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that after President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. According to USDA export sales data, from January 8 to January 15, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.03 million tons; among them, the US exported 1.3 million tons of soybeans to China in that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 9.42 million tons. According to MYSTEEL data, from January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week. According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/2026 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season. Among them, the January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Brazilian production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Argentine production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared with the previous season. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume decreased slightly by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [13]. Oils and Fats Market Information - On Tuesday, the oils and fats futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,258 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,238 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton or 1.61% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,326 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 9,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 10,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16]. - According to foreign media reports, Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that after President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the production of crude palm oil in Malaysia from January 1 to 20 decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. According to MYSTEEL data, from January 16 to January 23, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats decreased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. The deputy minister of the Indonesian Ministry of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. According to USDA data, the January forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous season. According to the data of the Indian Solvent Extractors' Association, India's total vegetable oil imports in December were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November [16][18]. Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable in some areas and rose in others. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.08 yuan to 3.92 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 3.6 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao increased by 0.11 yuan to 3.62 yuan/jin, and the price in Xishui increased by 0.07 yuan to 3.96 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion was okay, and most industry players purchased and sold according to the market trend. Most industry players still had a bullish sentiment, and it is expected that the national egg price may rise in most areas and remain stable in a few areas in the short term [21][25]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.06 yuan to 13.18 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 12.67 yuan/kg. The slaughtering enthusiasm of the northern breeding side was okay, but there was a certain reluctance to sell in the low - price areas, and the decline of the pig price may narrow. The southern breeding side was active in slaughtering, the market demand was average, and under the influence of oversupply, the pig price may continue to decline [23].

贵金属日报 2026-01-28 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金跌 0.28 %，报 1142.00 元/克，沪银跌 2.42 %，报 27702.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 5163.20 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 111.31 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.24%，美元指数报 95.91 ； 美元指数持续走弱，但特朗普仍旧表示"不担心美元贬值"，这同时驱动金银价格持续走强。 特朗普暂缓对等关税后美元指数持续走弱，由 99 一线下跌至 95.5 一线。针对美元指数的下跌， 特朗普表示"美元贬值幅度并不大，表现良好"，其发言后美元进一步下跌。 今晨，CME 再度对白银、铂金及钯金的保证金进行调整，白银合约的初始保证金及维持保证金 上升至 11%（部分合约初始保证金为 12.1%）, 短期需关注白银价格的大幅波动风险。 【策略观点】 金银价格前期的强势表现，所体现的是对美元信用和美联储货币政策稳定性的担忧，其价格上 涨具备 ...

文字早评 2026/01/28 星期三 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、人民日报刊文：《2026，一个可期待的商业航天大年》； 2、国家疾控局：我国尚未发现尼帕病毒病病例 疫情对我国产生的影响相对较小； 3、欧盟正式启动各成员国政府卫星通信计划； 4、谷歌云正式官宣涨价 其中北美地区翻倍。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.19%/0.27%/-0.06%/-1.11%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.06%/-0.02%/-0.86%/-2.09%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.04%/-0.30%/-1.93%/-3.86%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.26%/0.38%/0.51%/-0.34%。 【策略观点】 近期政策更多是担心市场短期过热，慢牛才是政策的长期导向。中长期看政策支持资本市场的态度未变， 短期关注市场的节奏，策略上以逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周二，TL 主力合约收于 112.090 ，环比变化-0.37%；T 主力合约收于 108.185 ，环比变 化 0.00%；TF 主力合约收于 105.840 ，环比变化-0.01%； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, with Venezuela's production increase in progress and Iran's situation in a state of low - intensity friction, there is a bottom for oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still cost - effective to go long when the price is in the shale oil break - even range [2]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. Although there is short - term negative pressure, due to geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long on dips [5]. - For urea, the current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [7]. - For rubber, the chemical sector may oscillate or decline after the rise. Rubber is in a weak seasonal period. A neutral - to - bearish approach is recommended, trading short - term according to the market. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - selling strategy is suggested, and partial positions can be established for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment provide some support, in the medium - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and positions can be gradually closed for profit [20]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has fallen. The PE valuation still has downward space, but the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has been reduced. The supply is relatively stable in the first half of 2026, and demand is in a seasonal trough [23]. - For polypropylene, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction under the background of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [26]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The medium - term outlook is good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [29]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation period. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still relatively high, and the port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation needs to be compressed without further production cuts in China [34]. 3. Summary of Each Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 4.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.93% decline, at 446.70 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures of related refined oil closed down 43.00 yuan/ton (1.57%) at 2692.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 11.00 yuan/ton (0.35%) at 3165.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 2.08 million barrels to 203.73 million barrels, a 1.01% decline; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.60 million barrels to 93.96 million barrels, a 1.73% increase; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.69 million barrels to 96.25 million barrels, a 0.72% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.29 million barrels to 190.21 million barrels, a 1.22% increase [1]. - **Strategy View**: With the US energy minister's visit to Venezuela, Venezuela's production increase is in progress. Iran's situation is in a state of low - intensity friction. There is a bottom for oil prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is cost - effective to go long when the price is in the shale oil break - even range [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot price in Jiangsu changed by 37 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton in Lunan, - 5 yuan/ton in Henan, 0 yuan/ton in Hebei, and 10 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The main futures contract changed by 25.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2304 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 35 yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: The current valuation is low, and the situation will improve marginally next year. Although there is short - term negative pressure, due to geopolitical expectations from Iran, it is feasible to go long on dips [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot price in Shandong changed by - 10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton in Henan, 20 yuan/ton in Hebei, 0 yuan/ton in Hubei, 0 yuan/ton in Jiangsu, 0 yuan/ton in Shanxi, and 0 yuan/ton in the Northeast. The overall basis was reported at - 50 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 1 yuan/ton, closing at 1790 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy View**: The current internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The chemical sector was oscillating. Butadiene rubber rose, while RU declined. The reasons for the sharp rise in butadiene rubber may be large - scale allocation of long positions in the chemical sector by macro funds, expected increase in the cost of naphtha and butadiene due to the expected naphtha consumption tax policy, and expected reduction in butadiene production, as well as increased marginal exports of butadiene due to spot demand in South Korea. The inventory in East China ports decreased significantly. The long - side of natural rubber RU believes in limited production increase in Southeast Asian rubber forests, seasonal price increase in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The short - side believes in uncertain macro expectations, increased supply, and seasonal off - peak demand. As of January 22, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.70%, 0.14 percentage points lower than last week and 20.70 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 75.27%, 0.92 percentage points higher than last week and 5.34 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of January 18, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 127.3 million tons, a 1.7 - million - ton (1.3%) increase from the previous month [10][11]. - **Strategy View**: The chemical sector may oscillate or decline after the rise. Rubber is in a weak seasonal period. A neutral - to - bearish approach is recommended, trading short - term according to the market. If RU2605 falls below 16000, a short - selling strategy is suggested, and partial positions can be established for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 48 yuan to 4911 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4710 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 201 (+ 8) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 117 (0) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2475 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 603 (- 2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 78.7%, a 0.9% decline from the previous month; the calcium - carbide - based process was 80%, unchanged from the previous month; the ethylene - based process was 75.7%, a 3.1% decline from the previous month. The overall downstream operating rate was 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous month. The in - plant inventory was 30.8 million tons (- 0.3), and the social inventory was 117.8 million tons (+ 3.3) [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, pre - export rush, and strong commodity sentiment provide some support, in the medium - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended before significant industry production cuts [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 5980 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton decline; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5990 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan/ton decline; the pure benzene basis was - 10 yuan/ton, a 48 - yuan/ton increase. The spot price of styrene was 7900 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton increase; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7649 yuan/ton, a 53 - yuan/ton decline; the basis was 251 yuan/ton, a 103 - yuan/ton increase. The BZN spread was 192.75 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton decline. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 123.3 yuan/ton, an 11.6 - yuan/ton increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton decrease. The upstream operating rate was 69.63%, a 1.23% decline; the inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.71 million tons to 9.35 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products in the demand side was 42.40%, a 0.49% increase; the PS operating rate was 57.30%, a 0.10% decline, the EPS operating rate was 58.71%, a 4.65% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 66.80%, a 3.00% decline [19]. - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is limited. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, and positions can be gradually closed for profit [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6899 yuan/ton, a 36 - yuan/ton decline, and the spot price was 6830 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was - 69 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, a 1.23% increase from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 4.51 million tons to 35.03 million tons, and the inventory of traders remained unchanged at 2.92 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a 0.11% decline from the previous month. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous month [22]. - **Strategy View**: The futures price has fallen. The PE valuation still has downward space, but the pressure on the market from warehouse receipts has been reduced. The supply is relatively stable in the first half of 2026, and demand is in a seasonal trough [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6709 yuan/ton, a 28 - yuan/ton decline, and the spot price was 6580 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was - 129 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, a 0.01% decline from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises decreased by 3.67 million tons to 43.1 million tons, the inventory of traders decreased by 1.08 million tons to 19.39 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 0.05 million tons to 7.06 million tons. The average downstream operating rate was 52.58%, a 0.02% decline from the previous month. The LL - PP spread was 190 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous month. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton increase from the previous month [24][25]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction under the background of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is high. In the long - term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 236 yuan to 7286 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 27 US dollars to 903 US dollars. The basis was - 15 yuan (+ 20), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan (+ 18). The PX operating load in China was 88.9%, a 0.5% decline from the previous month; the Asian operating load was 81%, a 0.4% increase from the previous month. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical further reduced its load, and Sinochem Quanzhou restarted. Overseas, the South Korean GS plant restarted. The PTA operating load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 21.5 million tons of PX to China in the first half of January, a 6.8 - million - ton decline from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of November was 446 million tons, a 6 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 357 US dollars (- 1), South Korean PX - MX was 158 US dollars (+ 7), and the naphtha crack spread was 98 US dollars (+ 12) [28]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to maintain a inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The medium - term outlook is good, and attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips following crude oil [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 180 yuan to 5258 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 125 yuan to 5225 yuan. The basis was - 79 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was 16 yuan (- 14). The PTA operating load was 76.6%, a 0.3% increase from the previous month. The downstream operating load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous month. The terminal texturing load decreased by 4% to 66%, and the loom load decreased by 6% to 49%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 million tons, a 4 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee increased by 17 yuan to 455 yuan, and the on - market processing fee decreased by 25 yuan to 478 yuan [30]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation period. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short - term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long on dips [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 56 yuan to 3938 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 44 yuan to 3843 yuan. The basis was - 119 yuan (+ 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 92 yuan (+ 5). The ethylene glycol operating load was 73%, a 1.4% decline from the previous month, of which the synthetic - gas - based process was 79.4%, a 0.8% decline; the ethylene - based process operating load was 69.5%, a 1.7% decline. The downstream operating load was 86.4%, a 1.9% decline from the previous month. The terminal text

黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 黑色建材日报 2026-01-27 【策略观点】 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3143 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 1 元/吨（0.031%）。当日注册仓单 17283 吨, 环比减少 1204 吨。主力合约持仓量为 173.09 万手，环比减少 10906 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3302 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 3 元/吨（-0.09%）。 当日注册仓单 179126 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term due to a tight copper ore supply, seasonally weak refined copper demand, and increasing global visible inventories, with support from policy and sentiment [5]. - Aluminum prices are likely to be strong and range - bound as domestic inventory accumulation is not a major negative in the off - season, and LME inventory is low while US aluminum spot premiums are high, with support from loose policies at home and abroad [8]. - The lead industry is currently weak, but the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally as winter transportation issues tighten recycled smelting raw materials [10]. - The zinc industry remains weak, but zinc prices are rising to catch up with the sector's macro - attributes as overseas natural gas price hikes raise concerns about European smelting costs, and zinc - copper and zinc - aluminum ratios are at low levels [12]. - Tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to capital games in the futures market, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term due to the expected reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia, and it is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices have a potential callback risk due to large supply - side uncertainties and increased profit - taking after a rapid rise, and it is recommended to use light positions or options [19]. - Alumina prices may face difficulties in continuous rebound due to over - capacity, declining cost support, and delivery pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to rise further but with large fluctuations, as the raw material supply is expected to be tight and social inventory continues to decline [25]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong and range - bound due to strong cost support and continuous supply - side disturbances [28] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices hit new highs and then fell, copper prices also rose and then declined. LME copper 3M rose 0.42% to $13,183/ton, SHFE copper main contract closed at 103,460 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,175 tons to 170,525 tons, North American inventory growth slowed, and the cancelled warrant ratio decreased. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly, bonded area inventory decreased, and SHFE daily warrants decreased by 0.1 to 145,000 tons. Shanghai and Guangdong spot copper were at a discount to futures, and the spot import loss of SHFE copper widened to about 850 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,810 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term copper price may be range - bound. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,500 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,300/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Precious metals rose sharply and then fell, aluminum prices fluctuated and closed higher. LME aluminum closed up 0.69% at $3,195/ton, SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,380 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 0.7 to 732,000 lots, and futures warrants increased by 0.1 to 142,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased, aluminum rod processing fees rebounded with dull trading. The spot discount of East China electrolytic aluminum to futures widened, and LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 to 505,000 tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio decreasing [7]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong and range - bound. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract today is 24,100 - 24,600 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,140 - 3,220/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Monday, the SHFE lead index fell 0.16% to 17,079 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 102,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME lead 3S rose $1 to $2,027/ton, with a total position of 171,400 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,825 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 28,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract - first - month contract spread was - 60 yuan/ton. LME lead ingot inventory was 215,200 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 28,100 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 44.556 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 126.7 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.216, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 174.01 yuan/ton. As of January 26, the national main market lead ingot social inventory was 34,900 tons, an increase of 70 tons from January 22 [9]. - **Strategy**: Although the visible lead ore inventory is rising and higher than in previous years, high by - product profits suppress the further decline of lead concentrate TC. The primary smelting start - up rate has declined slightly but remains high, the recycled smelting start - up rate has increased marginally, and the finished product inventory of primary and recycled smelting plants and lead ingot social inventory have both increased. However, the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Monday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.59% to 24,744 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 236,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME zinc 3S rose $53 to $3,292/ton, with a total position of 230,200 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,680 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 35 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 25 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong basis was 25 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai - Guangdong spread of 10 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,900 tons, the domestic Shanghai area basis was 35 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract - first - month contract spread was - 80 yuan/ton. LME zinc ingot inventory was 111,500 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 9,400 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 32.62 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 2 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.085, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 2,342.1 yuan/ton. As of January 26, the national main market zinc ingot social inventory was 109,900 tons, an increase of 130 tons from January 22 [11]. - **Strategy**: The visible zinc ore inventory is accumulating, zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized, zinc smelting profits have slightly recovered, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory destocking has slowed. After the SHFE - LME price ratio recovered, the outflow of zinc improved. Although short - term bullish sentiment has retreated, the rise in overseas natural gas prices has raised concerns about European smelting costs, and zinc prices are rising to catch up with the sector's macro - attributes [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 26, tin prices rose and then fell, and the SHFE tin main contract closed at 425,340 yuan/ton, down 0.98% from the previous day. SHFE inventory was reported at 8,624 tons, an increase of 42 tons from the previous day. In terms of supply, the smelter start - up rate in Yunnan remained stable at a high level last week, while Jiangxi's refined tin output was still low due to a shortage of recycled tin raw materials. In terms of demand, although high tin prices significantly suppressed downstream purchasing意愿, downstream inventories were generally low, and the acceptance of tin prices was gradually increasing. After the tin price fell last week, the rigid demand for replenishment was concentrated. As of January 23, 2026, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from last Friday [13]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, tin prices are determined by capital games in the futures market. In the context of a strong trend in precious metals and the non - ferrous sector, tin prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for overseas LME tin is $52,000 - 58,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 26, nickel prices rose and then fell, and the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 145,380 yuan/ton, down 1.78% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 6,500 yuan/ton, down 1,750 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $54.54/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $23/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices rose significantly. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,050 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 7.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [15]. - **Strategy**: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that SHFE nickel will fluctuate widely in the short term due to the expected reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - 19,000/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The WK Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 168,795 yuan in the evening session, down 3.45% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 165,500 - 173,000 yuan, with the average price down 6,000 yuan (- 3.42%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 162,000 - 170,000 yuan, with the average price down 3.63% from the previous day. The LC2605 contract closed at 165,680 yuan, down 8.73% from the previous closing price, and the average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan [18]. - **Strategy**: On Monday, lithium carbonate rose and then fell, and the total contract position decreased by 53,900 lots. Although the fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged, the supply - side uncertainty is large. After the previous rapid rise in lithium prices, there are more profit - taking orders, and there is a potential callback risk. It is recommended to use light positions or options. The reference range for the GZEE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 158,800 - 172,600 yuan/ton [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: As of 15:00 on January 26, 2026, the alumina index rose 0.37% to 2,729 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 679,300 lots, a decrease of 37,500 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 177 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price rose $1/ton to $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 84 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warrants on Monday were reported at 149,200 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from the previous trading day. At the mine end, the Guinea CIF price remained at $62/ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at $60/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: After the rainy season, Guinea's shipments are gradually recovering, and with the resumption of production at the AXIS mine, the ore price is expected to decline. Alumina smelting over - capacity is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market has increased expectations for the implementation of supply - contraction policies, but there are still difficulties in continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,645 yuan/ton, down 0.54% (- 80) on the day, with a long - short position of 319,200 lots, an increase of 834 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in the Foshan market was reported at 14,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in the Wuxi market was reported at 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day. The Foshan basis was - 395 (+ 180), and the Wuxi basis was - 345 (- 20). The Hongwang 201 in Foshan was reported at 9,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang annealed 430 was reported at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of Shandong high - nickel iron was reported at 1,045 yuan/nickel, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day. The recycling price of Baoding 304 scrap steel industrial materials was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area was reported at 8,450 yuan/50 - base tons, unchanged from the previous day. The futures inventory was reported at 38,938 tons, a decrease of 7,180 tons from the previous day. As of January 23, social inventory decreased to 878,900 tons, a decrease of 0.51% month - on - month, of which 300 - series inventory was 599,500 tons, a decrease of 0.48% month - on - month [24]. - **Strategy**: Last week, the stainless steel market was active, and price fluctuations intensified. Due to the widening nickel - stainless steel price difference, some nickel - iron production capacity shifted to high - grade nickel matte production, resulting in a tight supply of nickel - iron and limited high - quality tradable resources in the market. In addition, futures warrants are at a low level, and the stainless steel market shows a structurally tight supply in the short term, with near - month contracts continuing to strengthen. Although downstream demand weakened before the Spring Festival, traders' enthusiasm for stocking increased, and social inventory continued to decline. If the Indonesian government intervenes in the suspected monopoly of port logistics in the Indonesian Tsingshan Industrial Park, the supply of stainless steel may be affected. Overall, the expectation of tight raw

农产品早报 2026-01-27 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 据 UNICA 数据显示，2025 年 12 月下半月巴西中南部压榨甘蔗 217.1 万吨，同比增长 26.60%，糖产量为 5.6 万吨，同比减少 14.93%，甘蔗制糖比 21.24%，较去年同期减少 11.28 个百分点。据海关总署公布的 数据显示，2025 年 12 月份我国进口食糖 58 万吨，同比增加 19 万吨。2025 年我国累计进口食糖 492 万 吨，同比增加 57 万吨。2025/26 榨季截至 12 月底我国累计进口食糖 177 万吨，同比增加 31 万吨。12 月 份我国进口糖浆、预混粉合计 6.97 万吨 2025 年累计进口 118.88 万吨。印度糖及生物能源制造商协会 (ISMA)公布的数据显示，截至 2026 年 1 月 15 日，印度全国糖产量已达 ...