Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most metal prices in the domestic market declined this week, with significant drops in industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and other varieties. The prices of some metals' spot and futures showed different trends. The inventories of copper in the three major exchanges continued to rise, and the copper concentrate processing fee remained at a historical low. The demand side of copper presented a mixed situation, with growth in the automotive and new - energy vehicle sectors but declines in the real - estate and photovoltaic sectors. Under the background of the "anti - involution" policy, the output of industrial silicon and polysilicon increased in July, and the futures prices of related varieties may be adjusted in the short term and face long - term over - capacity issues [2][11][16][30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - This week, the prices of most metals in the domestic market declined. The futures prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon all decreased, with the largest decline of 14.41% in the lithium carbonate 2509 contract. The spot prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and industrial silicon also decreased, while the spot prices of alumina, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon increased, with the largest increase of 5.71% in lithium carbonate [2]. 3.2 Copper Inventory Trends in the Three Major Exchanges - As of July 25, the SHFE copper inventory was 84,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,100 tons (+3.80%). As of August 1, the LME copper inventory was 141,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,300 tons (+10.35%). As of July 24, the COMEX copper inventory was 257,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons (+4.03%). The inventories in the three major exchanges continued to rise, and non - US copper inventories flowed back [11][16]. 3.3 Copper Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of July 31, the spot TC of copper concentrate dropped to - 42.50 dollars per ton, a slight increase of 0.4 dollars per ton. The expectation of a tight supply at the mine end still exists, and the processing fee remains at a historical low [19]. - **Demand**: In June, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased by 35% and 36.9% year - on - year respectively, accounting for 45.8% of the total new vehicle sales. From January to June, the new construction area of housing decreased by 20%, and the completion area decreased by 14.8%. In June, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 84.54% [23][25][27]. 3.4 "Anti - Involution" Policy Summary - Since 2024, a series of policies have been introduced to address "involution - style" competition, including measures to promote large - scale equipment updates, eliminate backward production capacity, and prevent low - price and disorderly competition. In June and July 2025, specific policies such as setting a price floor for polysilicon, raising the access threshold for new projects, and strengthening governance of low - price competition were introduced [28]. 3.5 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term**: Pay attention to position management and beware of repeated risks. - **Long - term**: Entering the wet season, focus on the inventory clearance speed of the industry, and the long - term over - capacity situation remains [31][32]. 3.6 Key Variety Weekly Summary - This week, the three varieties on the GZEX adjusted across the board. The weekly decline of the industrial silicon 2509 contract was 12.60%, the polysilicon 2509 contract was 3.58%, and the lithium carbonate 2509 contract was 14.41%. The polysilicon market fluctuated widely this week, mainly due to the spread and clarification of a "small composition" about polysilicon storage. The output of industrial silicon and polysilicon increased in July. In the short term, the futures prices may be adjusted, and attention should be paid to repeated risks [30].

Report Overview - Report Title: Feed and Livestock Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Ge Yan [3] Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - During the speculation period in the US soybean producing areas, there have been frequent positive developments on the trade front, and the support level of 10 cents for US soybeans is relatively strong. However, due to concerns about domestic demand, the prices of double rapeseed meal have declined from their highs. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China held a symposium on promoting the high - quality development of the pig industry, emphasizing capacity control measures, such as reasonable culling of sows, reduction of secondary fattening, and control of fat pig slaughter weight, and promoting the reduction and substitution of soybean meal. - For soybean meal, in the short - term, it is supported by the import cost of US and Brazilian soybeans, and short - term long positions can be considered; in the long - term, due to factors such as slowing demand growth and continuous inventory accumulation, short positions can be held. - For rapeseed meal, in the short - term, considering the low inventory of domestic coastal oil mills and uncertain trade relations, short - term long positions can be held; in the long - term, it can be configured with a bearish view [41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Prices**: As of July 24, 2025, the closing prices of the main contracts of soybean meal (M2509), rapeseed meal (RM509), corn (C2509), live pigs (LH2509), and eggs (JD2508) were 3025, 2682, 2318, 14365, and 3636 respectively, with weekly increases of 48, 29, 25, 355, and 45, and weekly growth rates of 0.02, 0.01, 0.01, 0.03, and 0.01 respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of 43% protein soybean meal, rapeseed meal, national standard second - grade corn with 14.5% moisture, commercial pigs in Henan, and eggs in the main producing areas were 2850, 2570, 2320, 1413, and 334 respectively, with weekly changes of 40, 20, 0, - 39, and 55, and weekly growth rates of 0.01, 0.01, 0, - 0.03, and 0.20 respectively [4]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side** - **Weather**: August is a critical month for the autumn soybean harvest. There will be a brief heatwave in the US Midwest this week, but showers are expected to relieve the pressure on soybean crop growth. - **US Soybeans**: The USDA downgraded the good - to - excellent rating of US soybean growth. As of July 20, the good - to - excellent rate was 68%, lower than the previous week's 70% and the market expectation of 71%, but the same as the 68% in the same period of 2024. - **Brazil**: Brazilian farmers' selling progress has accelerated, but it is still relatively slow overall. - **Argentina**: In June, Argentina's soybean crushing volume was 4,055,149 tons, and its soybean oil production was 788,210 tons [10]. - **Supply** - **Import**: In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans; from January to June 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports were 49.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. - **Import Price**: As of July 24, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 471.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous week; the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous week [10][17]. - **Demand** - **Crushing**: As of the week of July 18, the domestic main oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 2.3 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 410,000 tons year - on - year, and an increase of 510,000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. This week, the oil mills' operating rate remained high, with a crushing volume of about 2.2 million tons. - **Trading Volume**: On July 23, the total trading volume of soybean meal was 110,300 tons, a decrease of 24,500 tons from the previous day, including 44,300 tons of spot trading [10]. - **Inventory** - **Oil Mill Inventory**: In the 29th week of 2025, the national oil mills' soybean inventory was 6.4224 million tons, a decrease of 152,500 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 310,400 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 998,400 tons, an increase of 112,200 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year decrease of 262,200 tons. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 24, the import soybean port inventory was 6.6793 million tons, an increase of 103,100 tons from the previous week, at a near - 5 - year low level. As of July 19, the oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 908,300 tons, an increase of 65,400 tons from the previous week, at a near - 5 - year medium level [10][25]. 3. Supply - Side Analysis - **Import**: As of July 24, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 471.00 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous week; the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar/ton from the previous week [17]. - **Crushing**: As of the week of July 24, the soybean crushing profit was 91.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 25.45 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of July 18, the domestic oil mills' weekly soybean crushing volume was 2.1476 million tons, an increase of 175,000 tons from the previous week. As of July 18, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate was 55%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous week [23]. 4. Demand - Side Analysis As of July 18, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 113,700 tons, a decrease of 122,000 tons from the previous week, at a near - 5 - year medium - low level [29]. 5. Strategy Recommendation - **Short - Term**: For soybean meal, due to the support from the import cost of US and Brazilian soybeans, short - term long positions can be considered; for rapeseed meal, considering the low inventory of domestic coastal oil mills and uncertain trade relations, short - term long positions can be held. - **Long - Term**: For soybean meal, due to factors such as slowing demand growth and continuous inventory accumulation, short positions can be held; for rapeseed meal, it can be configured with a bearish view [41]. 6. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus is on the weather in the producing areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [42].

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Author: Shi Lei, Shi Zhuoran [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long term, due to the continuous fermentation of anti - involution policies and the confirmation of coal mine production inspections, the black series futures showed an upward trend in the market, but the impact on iron ore was relatively small. Steel mills' profitability continued to increase, daily average pig iron production slightly declined, and foreign ore shipments rebounded. The black series is expected to operate in a volatile and upward - trending manner, and attention should be paid to relevant policy announcements and implementation [52]. - In the short term, the black series will continue its upward trend, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and macro - sentiment changes [53]. - For glass and soda ash, in the medium to long term, the float glass start - up rate has slightly declined, with potential future production cuts, continuous reduction of in - factory inventory, and cost - side support for prices, but limited improvement in demand. Soda ash production has decreased, but the oversupply situation persists, and the recent price increase is mainly due to macro - level disturbances [56]. - In the short term, the glass futures contract has risen significantly, and a bullish view is maintained in the short term. The soda ash 09 contract has also risen, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and excessive chasing of the rise is not recommended [57]. Summary by Directory Black Series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | July 18, 2025 | July 25, 2025 | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Spot Price | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2510 | 3147 | 3356 | 209 | 6.64 | 3380 | 24 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | HC2510 | 3310 | 3507 | 197 | 5.95 | 3580 | 73 | | Iron Ore | I2509 | 785 | 803 | 17.5 | 2.23 | 806 | 3.5 | | Coke | J2509 | 1518 | 1763 | 245 | 16.14 | 1090 | - 673 | | Coking Coal | JM2509 | 926 | 1259 | 333 | 35.96 | 1280 | 21 | | Glass | FG509 | 1081 | 1362 | 281 | 25.99 | 1180 | - 182 | | Soda Ash | SA509 | 1216 | 1440 | 224 | 18.42 | 1250 | - 190 | [3] Rebar - **Profit**: On July 24, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was reported at 256 yuan/ton, a 93 - yuan increase compared to July 17 [7]. - **Supply**: As of July 25, the blast - furnace start - up rate was 83.46% (unchanged from the previous week), the electric - furnace start - up rate was 62.18% (an increase of 3.21 percentage points), the daily average pig iron production was 242.23 tons (a decrease of 0.21 tons), and the rebar production was 2.1196 million tons (an increase of 29,000 tons) [12]. - **Demand**: In the week of July 25, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 2.1658 million tons, a 104,100 - ton increase from the previous week. As of July 24, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 111,473 tons, a 16,597 - ton increase compared to July 17 [16]. - **Inventory**: In the week of July 25, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 3.7297 million tons, a 21,800 - ton increase from the previous week, and the in - factory inventory was reported at 1.6567 million tons, a 74,300 - ton decrease [21]. Float Glass - **Supply**: As of July 25, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 222, a decrease of 1 compared to the previous week; the weekly output was 1,108,175 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; as of July 24, the capacity utilization rate was 79.48%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points; the start - up rate was 75%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points [26]. - **Inventory**: On July 25, the in - factory inventory of float glass was reported at 61.896 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million weight - boxes compared to July 18, and the in - factory inventory days were 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days [31]. - **Demand**: As of July 15, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 9.3 days, a decrease of 0.2 days compared to June 30 [35]. Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was reported at 83.02%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points compared to the previous week, and the output was 723,800 tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons [40]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was reported at 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons compared to July 18 [45]. - **Production and Sales Ratio**: As of July 25, the production and sales ratio of soda ash was reported at 105.66%, an increase of 11.42 percentage points compared to July 18 [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - In the short term, due to the continuous fermentation of the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and eliminating backward production capacity, risk appetite rises, but corporate profits have not significantly improved, so be cautious about the short - term rebound of stock index futures and protect the profits of long positions; the end of the grace period for the US equivalent tariff policy is approaching, and trade agreements have been reached with important trading partners, leading to a significant decline in risk aversion, so gold may continue to adjust after the end of the rebound, and short positions can be attempted. In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices is dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, and the support at the denominator end comes from the rise in risk appetite, so the stock index maintains a wide - range oscillation; the US may reach more trade agreements, risk aversion declines significantly, and with the approaching of the Fed's July interest rate decision, gold may face a deep adjustment [47] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to June this year, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, the decline in real estate investment widened, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down. The year - on - year decline in new housing construction area narrowed, while the decline in commercial housing sales area and sales volume widened, indicating that real estate investment will still be restricted [5] 2. Stock Index and Gold Spot Price Trends - Not provided in the content 3. Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.1 Corporate Profit - Driven by the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and eliminating backward production capacity, commodity prices have risen continuously, which helps improve the profits of upstream raw material processing industries. However, downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure and are in the stage of active inventory reduction [20] 3.2 Capital - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has continued to increase. The central bank conducted 1.6563 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 400 billion yuan of MLF operations this week, achieving a net investment of 12.95 billion yuan [24] 4. Gold Fundamental Data 4.1 US Economic Indicators - In June, the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped from 59.2 to 49.5, while the Services PMI rose to 55.2, reaching a new high this year. The number of initial jobless claims has declined for 6 consecutive weeks, indicating that the US manufacturing activity has slowed down, but the labor market remains strong, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield is running at a high level [30][31] 4.2 Gold Inventory - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have increased significantly, while the New York futures inventory has continued to decline, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled down [45]

有色金属周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20250725 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内主要金属现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.7.18 | 2025.7.25 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | 现货指标 | 2025.7.18 | 2025.7.25 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2509 | 78440 | 79250 | 810 | 1.03% | 平均价:1#铜:上海现货 | 78620 | 79810 | 1190 | 1.51% | | 铝 | AL2509 | 20510 | 20760 | 250 | 1.22% | 平均价:A00铝:上海现货 | 20690 | 20710 | 20 | 0.10% | | 锌 | ZN2509 | 22295 | 23015 | 720 | 3.23% | 平均价:0#锌:上海现货 | 22350 | 22900 | 5 ...

聚酯板块周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20250725 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 市场人士表示，美国特朗普政府准备向委内瑞拉国家石油公司的主要合作伙伴授予新的授权，由雪佛龙开始，允许他们在受到制裁的委内瑞 拉进行有限度的运营。 2 美国总统特朗普宣称已与日本达成贸易协议，对日本进口商品征收15%的关税，日本将向美国投资5500亿美元，并向美国开放汽车、农产品 等相关领域。另有关消息称，美国接近与欧盟达成贸易协议，将对欧洲进口商品征收15%的关税，双方将免除一些产品的关税，包括飞机、 烈酒和医疗设备。 3 国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至30日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈，这是继日内瓦和伦敦会谈后的第三次高级别磋商，美国财政部长贝森特、 商务部长卢特尼克和贸易代表格里尔共同参与。 4 EIA数据显示，上周美国原油库存减少320万桶，至4.19亿桶，是分析师预期减少160万桶的两倍。当周，美国汽油库存减少170万桶，此前市 场预期为减少90万桶；包括柴油和取暖油的馏分油库存增加290万桶，此前市场预期为减少10万桶。 5 24 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy of US biodiesel is favorable. The USDA June report shows that the expected ending inventory of US soybeans is 295 million bushels, and the production in Brazil and Argentina is 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively. The MPOB report indicates that the production of Malaysian palm oil in June was 1.692 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%, and the inventory was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% [30]. - In the short term, palm oil hovers around the 9000 mark, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 8850 - 9200. In the medium - to - long term, the main contract of palm oil breaks through the upper limit of the previous shock range, and the center of gravity may rise, with an expected fluctuation range of 8600 - 9400 [32]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From July 18 to July 25, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2509) rose from 8964 to 9104, a weekly increase of 1.56%, and the spot price rose from 9048 to 9172, a weekly increase of 1.37%. The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2509) decreased from 9586 to 9492, a weekly decrease of 0.98%, and the spot price decreased from 9692 to 9590, a weekly decrease of 1.05%. The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2509) rose from 8160 to 8166, a weekly increase of 0.07%, and the spot price remained unchanged at 8414 [4]. Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of July 24, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 248 yuan/ton (an increase of 16 yuan/ton from the previous week), 98 yuan/ton (a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 68 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of July 25, 2025, the YP spread was - 794 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased to 92,500 tons (a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in factories increased to 591,400 tons (an increase of 28,400 tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 1,091,800 tons (an increase of 42,400 tons from the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils increased to 1,775,700 tons (an increase of 70,400 tons from the previous week) [10]. Supply Side of Palm Oil - MPOB palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in June increased by 2.4% to 2.03 million tons. In May 2025, the ending inventory of Indonesian palm oil decreased by 4.2% to 2.916 million tons [15]. Supply Side of Soybean Oil - As of July 18, 2025, the inventory of soybeans in national ports was 797,900 tons (a decrease of 25,200 tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybeans in major national oil mills was 642,240 tons (a decrease of 15,250 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 55% (a decrease of 4% from the previous week). As of July 24, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 721.20 yuan/ton (an increase of 25.95 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20]. Supply Side of Rapeseed Oil - As of July 18, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20,000 tons (an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week). As of July 25, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was 255.60 yuan/ton (a decrease of 34.76 yuan/ton from the previous week) [23]. Demand Side - On July 24, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 866 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 35,000 tons, and the POGO spread was 364.24 US dollars/ton (an increase of 35 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.65 million tons [29]. Strategy Recommendation - This week, the supply - demand data of Indonesia is favorable, but high - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increases and exports decrease, and the expectation of inventory accumulation strengthens, with palm oil fluctuating at a high level. The consumption of Indonesian biodiesel this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters, accounting for 47.5% of the 2025 quota. From July 1 - 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.19% month - on - month, and exports decreased by 3.5% month - on - month, increasing the expectation of inventory accumulation in July [31].