1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, after the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and repeated digestion of domestic policy benefits, the stock index should be cautious about callback risks; the Fed's interest rate decision is hawkish, and the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut has decreased. Gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound [29]. - In the medium - to long - term, the valuation of the stock index is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite. The stock index maintains a wide - range oscillation in the medium term; concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies have subsided, and gold may face a deep adjustment due to factors such as the easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the downward adjustment of the Fed's December interest rate cut expectation [29][30] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - In October this year, the official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and it has been in the contraction range for 7 consecutive months. Industrial production has slowed down significantly, demand has declined again, external demand pressure has increased, and the business climate of small and medium - sized enterprises has weakened [2] 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Enterprise Profit - From January to September this year, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 3.2% year - on - year, rebounding for two consecutive months. However, there is a differentiation in business performance among different industries. The profits of high - end and equipment manufacturing industries maintain rapid growth, while the operating pressure on downstream enterprises remains high [11] 3.2.2 Capital Situation - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has risen to 2473.27 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 2068 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 900 billion yuan of one - year MLF operations this week, achieving a net injection of 1400.8 billion yuan [15] 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Risk - free Rate: Holding Cost and Inflation Level - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected at its October meeting, but the divergence among participants on future interest rate policies has increased. They believe that the lack of economic data may lead to a delay in interest rate cuts, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield has returned above the 4% mark [21] 3.3.2 US Consumer Confidence Index and Employment Situation - No specific data provided 3.3.3 Gold Inventory Situation - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have slowed down, but the inventory of COMEX gold in New York has continued to decline, indicating a decrease in the risk of a short squeeze [28] 3.4 Strategy Recommendations - Short - term: After the end of the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and repeated digestion of domestic policy benefits, pay attention to the callback risk of the stock index in the short - term; the Fed's interest rate decision is hawkish, and the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut has decreased. Gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound [29] - Medium - to long - term: The valuation of the stock index is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite. The stock index maintains a wide - range oscillation in the medium term; concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies have subsided, and gold may face a deep adjustment due to factors such as the easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the downward adjustment of the Fed's December interest rate cut expectation [29][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Polyester Sector - In the short - term, although the cost center has shifted upwards, the supply - demand drivers are insufficient, and the polyester sector's enthusiasm to follow the rise in crude oil is limited. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situation changes. - In the medium - to - long - term, the expected increase in supply and the non - significant peak demand characteristics put pressure on the polyester sector as a whole [30][31] Methanol Sector - In the short - term, the supply side is slightly shrinking, the high - inventory problem at ports remains unsolved, and the upward space is limited. MTO is still the main demand force, but the recent losses have intensified, and the traditional downstream performs poorly. Methanol is mainly in a short - term range - bound oscillation due to coal cost support. - In the medium - to - long - term, the inflection point of port inventory is the core point of the market. Attention should be paid to the reduction in imports caused by the implementation of gas restrictions in Iran. If the medium - to - long - term signals are positive, methanol may rebound [49] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil News - The US plans to sanction two major Russian oil companies, and the EU has passed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia. Russia believes these sanctions will not achieve the expected results. - US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased in the week ending October 17, indicating resilient energy demand. - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for economic and trade consultations with the US from October 24 - 27 [5][6][7] Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of WTI crude, PX, TA, EG, PF, and PR all increased week - on - week, with WTI crude rising 7.65%. Spot prices of related products also generally increased. - PX, PTA, and other product bases showed different degrees of change, with PX base increasing by 192.58% [9] Supply - Side Situation - **PX**: Urumqi Petrochemical plans to restart on October 29, and Asian PX load has slightly declined. This week, domestic PX production decreased, and next week's supply is expected to increase slightly. - **PTA**: Hengli Petrochemical's 220 - million - ton No. 1 device restarted on October 24, and this week's domestic PTA production increased, with social inventory decreasing. - **Ethylene Glycol**: This week, domestic ethylene glycol production slightly increased, but the load decreased. Next week, due to device overhauls, supply will slightly decrease, and port inventory decreased this week [14][17][18] Demand - Side Situation - The average weekly polyester start - up rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points. Short - fiber inventory increased slightly, and long - fiber inventory decreased during the week. - As of October 24, the start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased, the number of orders from Chinese weaving sample enterprises increased, and the inventory days of grey cloth decreased [19][22][28] Methanol Sector Price Trends - The futures price of MA2601 decreased by 2.03%, and the base decreased by 45.45%. The spot price of methanol in Taicang increased by 2.99%, and the methanol CFR decreased by 1.04%. The prices of downstream products such as formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid generally decreased [33] Cost and Profit - This week, the profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol production decreased, and natural - gas - based production continued to lose money. The overall demand - side profit of methanol declined significantly, and production enterprises suffered serious losses [39] Supply - Side Situation - As of October 23, the methanol start - up rate was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points, and the output was 194.35 million tons, a decrease of 2%. This week, the number of overhauled devices was greater than that of resumed devices. Next week, some devices plan to resume production, and there are no new overhaul plans [42][49] Demand - Side Situation - Affected by profit compression, the overall demand start - up load continued to weaken. MTO is still the main downstream demand force, with a load fluctuating around 91%. Traditional downstream industries performed poorly, and it is expected that MTO will continue to decline next week [45][49] Inventory Situation - As of October 22, port inventory was 151.22 million tons, an increase of 1.4%, and inland inventory was 36.04 million tons, an increase of 0.13%. Port inventory slightly increased, and inland inventory also increased slightly [48][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the "weak reality" of the market remains unchanged with many uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the soybean meal rebound. The market trading sentiment has cooled, and during the off - season of aquaculture, the continuous upward momentum of rapeseed meal is limited [36]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is abundant, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex is limited [37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - The closing price of the main soybean meal futures contract M2601 was 2938 on October 23, 2025, up 1.07% from the previous week. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 2940, up 0.68% [4]. - The closing price of the main rapeseed meal futures contract RM601 was 2339 on October 23, 2025, down 1.06% from the previous week. The average rapeseed meal price in China was 2460, down 1.60% [4]. - The closing price of the main corn futures contract C2601 was 2140 on October 23, 2025, up 1.37% from the previous week. The aggregated price of second - grade national standard corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2180, up 1.40% [4]. - The closing price of the main live hog futures contract LH2601 was 12200 on October 23, 2025, up 2.48% from the previous week. The average selling price of commercial hogs in Henan was 11.87, up 5.89% [4]. - The closing price of the main egg futures contract JD2511 was 3027 on October 23, 2025, up 7.42% from the previous week. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 2.86, down 2.39% [4]. Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - The La Nina phenomenon may last until February next year, and the key growing season of South American soybeans may face drought threats with a production reduction expectation [10]. - As of the week of October 16, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1474354 tons. The total U.S. soybean export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season so far reached 5537802 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30.9% [10]. - As of last Thursday, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 24%, higher than the previous week and the same period in 2024. Brazil's Conab predicted a soybean harvest of nearly 1.78 billion tons this season, a 3.6% increase from the previous year [10]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 51.1 million tons, and the soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decline from the previous year [10]. Supply - In September 2025, China's soybean import volume was 12.869 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2% [10]. Demand - The domestic spot market supply remains in a loose pattern, and the oil mill operation rate has recovered to over 60% [10]. - On October 23, the total soybean meal trading volume was 148,600 tons, an increase of 20,500 tons from the previous day [10]. Inventory - In the 42nd week of 2025, the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills was 976,200 tons, a decrease of 102,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 9.54% [10]. Supply Side - Import - As of October 24, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 487.00 US dollars per ton, an increase of 6 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The CNF price of U.S. West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars per ton, an increase of 10 US dollars per ton from the previous week [17]. Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week of October 23, the soybean pressing profit was - 144.20 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20.65 yuan per ton from the previous week [23]. - As of the week of October 17, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2988 million tons, an increase of 62,300 tons from the previous week [23]. - As of October 17, the operation rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 58%, a recovery of 1 percentage point from the previous week [23]. Inventory Side - As of October 24, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.1127 million tons, an increase of 924,800 tons from the previous week [30]. - As of October 17, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 963,100 tons, a decrease of 83,600 tons from the previous week [30]. Demand Side - As of October 17, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 122,300 tons, an increase of 81,800 tons from the previous week [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Long - term Outlook**: As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is coming to an end, the overall improvement in the fundamentals of the black - series is limited, with the main contracts of the black - series fluctuating at low levels. The real - estate data remains weak, glass enterprises' inventories have been accumulating for three consecutive weeks, and the oversupply situation in the soda ash market persists, with both maintaining a weak pattern [67][71] - **Short - term Outlook**: This week, due to the political turmoil in Mongolia affecting coking coal supply, coking coal and coke prices soared, boosting the sentiment of the black - series. The supply and demand of rebar both increased, but the steel price is under pressure. The daily average hot - metal output has fallen below 2.4 million tons, and iron ore prices are fluctuating at low levels. Glass and soda ash continue to operate at low levels, and attention should be paid to the market reaction and fundamental improvement after the important meeting [68][72] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black - Series Weekly Market Review - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 3037.0 on October 17 to 3046.0 on October 24, an increase of 9.0 (0.3%). The spot price was 3046.0, and the basis was 0 [3] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 3204.0 to 3250.0, an increase of 46.0 (1.4%). The spot price was 3290.0, and the basis was 40.0 [3] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract remained at 771.0. The spot price was 797.0, and the basis was 26.0 [3] - **Coke (J2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 1676.0 to 1757.5, an increase of 81.5 (4.9%). The spot price was 1620.0, and the basis was - 137.5 [3] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 1179.0 to 1248.5, an increase of 69.5 (5.9%). The spot price was 1420.0, and the basis was 171.5 [3] - **Glass (FG601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract fell from 1095.0 to 1092.0, a decrease of 3.0 (- 0.3%). The spot price was 1240.0, and the basis was 148.0 [3] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract rose from 1209.0 to 1229.0, an increase of 20.0 (1.7%). The spot price was 1270.6, and the basis was 41.6 [3] 3.2 Rebar Blast Furnace Profit - On October 23, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 56 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Rebar Supply - As of October 24, the blast furnace operating rate was 84.71%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 2.399 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons; the rebar output was 2.0707 million tons, an increase of 58,500 tons [13] 3.4 Rebar Demand - In the week of October 24, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.2601 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,600 tons. As of October 23, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 105,323 tons [18] 3.5 Rebar Inventory - In the week of October 24, the social inventory of rebar was 4.3748 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 189,300 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.8463 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons [22] 3.6 Iron Ore Supply - In the week of October 17, the global iron ore shipment volume was 33.335 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 26.763 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.678 million tons [27] 3.7 Iron Ore Inventory - In the week of October 24, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 151.0949 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4762 million tons; the inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel enterprises was 90.7919 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9646 million tons [32] 3.8 Iron Ore Demand - In the week of October 24, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 3.2207 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 72,500 tons. As of October 23, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 959,000 tons [37] 3.9 Float Glass Supply - In the week of October 24, the number of operating float glass production lines was 226; the weekly output was 1,128,925 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. As of October 23, the capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, and the operating rate was 76.35%, both remaining unchanged from the previous week [42] 3.10 Float Glass Inventory - In the week of October 24, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 66.613 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.3374 million weight boxes compared with October 17. The available days of in - plant inventory were 28.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 1 day [47] 3.11 Float Glass Demand - As of September 30, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 11 days [51] 3.12 Soda Ash Supply - In the week of October 24, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.94%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points compared with the previous week; the output was 740,600 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared with the previous week [55] 3.13 Soda Ash Inventory - As of October 24, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.7021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons [60] 3.14 Soda Ash Production and Sales Rate - As of October 24, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 99.78%, a week - on - week increase of 5.28 percentage points [64]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, domestic policy has released positive signals, but corporate profits have not significantly improved. Therefore, the short - term rebound of stock indices should be viewed with caution. As the Fed's October interest rate decision approaches and the expectation of an interest rate cut this year has been digested in advance, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is unclear, gold is likely to continue high - level volatile adjustments [36]. - In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade frictions. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. With the concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies fading, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East easing, and the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed this year being fully digested, there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - In the third quarter of this year, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points slower than in the second quarter. From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, the first negative growth since September 2020. Industrial added value increased by 6.2% year - on - year, the same as last month. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points slower than last month [4]. Stock Index Fundamental Data - In September this year, the scale of new loans and social financing rebounded, and the gap between M1 and M2 further narrowed, reflecting that financial institutions have continuously increased credit support for enterprises. The A - share market was active, and liquidity remained abundant [17]. - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly decreased to 2426.377 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan [21]. Gold Fundamental Data - The US federal government was in a shutdown, causing some economic data to fail to be released on time. There were differences within the Fed regarding future interest rate policies, and most officials supported a further interest rate cut this year. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fell below the 4% mark [27][28]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures continued to soar, reflecting an increase in the demand for physical gold delivery and high market bullish sentiment [34]. Strategy Recommendation - In the third quarter, GDP growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment continued to decline, mainly dragged down by the expanding decline in real estate investment and the slowing growth of infrastructure and manufacturing investment. With the improvement of weather conditions and the arrival of the peak construction season, industrial production expanded faster. Affected by the high - base effect of the same period last year, the growth rate of consumption slowed down marginally. The foundation for China's economic recovery is not solid, and the characteristics of strong production, weak demand, strong service industry, and weak manufacturing industry are still significant, with insufficient demand remaining the main contradiction [35]. - The communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was released, proposing the main goals of the 15th Five - Year Plan and requiring continuous and timely strengthening of macro - policies. A new round of China - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, and the market expects positive progress in the negotiations. With positive signals from the domestic policy side and eased concerns about China - US trade frictions, risk appetite has significantly rebounded, but the short - term rebound of stock indices should be viewed with caution [35]. - As the Fed's October interest - rate meeting approaches, it is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. However, due to the continuous shutdown of the US government, important data such as non - farm employment and core inflation have not been released on time, bringing uncertainty to the Fed's future interest - rate policy. In terms of international geopolitics, the meeting between US and Russian leaders was postponed, the EU imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia, and the prospect of Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations has changed again. The expectation of an interest - rate cut by the Fed this year has been repeatedly digested, and after the rapid rise of gold, some funds have taken profits. Gold may enter a stage of adjustment in the short term [35].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on non-ferrous metals by New Era Futures Research, dated October 24, 2025 [1] Group 2: Metal Price Movements - Copper: The futures price of CU2512 rose from 84,390 to 87,720, a weekly increase of 3,330 or 3.95%. The spot price of 1 copper in Shanghai increased from 84,850 to 86,400, up 1,550 or 1.83% [2] - Aluminum: The futures price of AL2512 increased from 20,910 to 21,225, a weekly rise of 315 or 1.51%. The spot price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai went up from 20,940 to 21,110, an increase of 170 or 0.81% [2] - Zinc: The futures price of ZN2512 climbed from 21,830 to 22,355, a weekly gain of 525 or 2.40%. The spot price of 0 zinc in Shanghai increased from 21,880 to 22,200, up 320 or 1.46% [2] - Lead: The futures price of PB2512 rose from 17,090 to 17,595, a weekly increase of 505 or 2.95%. The spot price of 1 lead ingot rose from 16,900 to 17,300, up 400 or 2.37% [2] - Nickel: The futures price of NI2512 increased from 121,330 to 122,150, a weekly gain of 820 or 0.68%. The spot price of 1 electrolytic nickel went up from 122,350 to 122,900, an increase of 550 or 0.45% [2] - Alumina: The futures price of AO2601 increased slightly from 2,800 to 2,810, a weekly rise of 10 or 0.36%. The spot price of alumina in Foshan decreased from 2,990 to 2,950, a decline of 40 or -1.34% [2] - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of SI2601 rose from 8,800 to 8,920, a weekly increase of 120 or 1.36%. The spot price of 553 silicon decreased from 9,500 to 9,400, a decline of 100 or -1.05% [2] - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price of LC2601 increased from 75,780 to 79,520, a weekly gain of 3,740 or 4.94%. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) rose from 73,850 to 75,400, up 1,550 or 2.10% [2] - Polysilicon: The futures price of PS2601 decreased from 54,850 to 52,305, a weekly decline of 2,545 or -4.64%. The spot price of N - type polysilicon material increased from 52,800 to 52,980, up 180 or 0.34% [2] Group 3: Metal Inventory Changes - Copper: As of October 24, SHFE copper inventory was 104,800 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons or -4.90% from last week. LME copper inventory was 136,400 tons, a decrease of 800 tons or -0.58% from last week. As of October 23, COMEX copper inventory was 347,500 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons or +0.81% from last week [13][14] - Zinc: As of October 24, LME zinc inventory was 37,600 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or -1.13% from last week. SHFE zinc inventory was 65,800 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons or -2.23% from last week [23] - Aluminum: As of October 24, LME aluminum inventory was 473,100 tons, a decrease of 18,100 tons from last week. SHFE aluminum inventory was 118,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from last week. COMEX aluminum inventory was 7,422 tons, an increase of 761 tons from last week [40][41] Group 4: Processing Fees and Indexes - Copper Concentrate: As of October 23, the spot TC of copper concentrate was -40.70 dollars/ton, remaining unchanged weekly, and the tight supply expectation at the mine end still exists [17] - Lithium Spodumene Concentrate: As of October 24, the latest quote was 881 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 35 dollars/ton [20] - Zinc Concentrate: As of October 24, the main port TC of zinc concentrate was 105 dollars/ton, remaining the same as on October 17 [24] Group 5: Demand - Side Analysis - Automobile: In August, automobile production and sales reached 2.815 million and 2.857 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and 10.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. From January to August, automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.391 million and 1.395 million units respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8%, and new energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.8% of total vehicle sales [44] - Real Estate: From January to August, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.431 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new construction area was 398 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5% [46] - Power Generation: As of the end of August, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.69 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.12 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 48.5%, and wind power installed capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.1% [48] Group 6: Strategy Recommendations Alumina and Aluminum - Short - term: Alumina is expected to run weakly and oscillatingly; Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly and oscillatingly [51] - Long - term: Terminal demand remains resilient. Considering the US dollar interest - rate cut rhythm and positive macro sentiment, Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly and oscillatingly [51] Polysilicon - Short - term: For polysilicon, policy influence continues to ferment, with short - term high - level range oscillation. For industrial silicon, as the wet season in the southwest ends and electricity prices rise, manufacturers will arrange production cuts at the end of the month, and the production cost of industrial silicon may increase. Attention should be paid to policy expectation guidance [55] - Long - term: The industry's over - supply pattern has not been reversed. Attention should be paid to the policy implementation rhythm and actual demand follow - up [55]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the polyester sector, short - term supply and demand drivers are insufficient, the cost center moves down, and the sector continues its weak pattern. In the long - term, it is under pressure due to cost decline, expected supply increase, and weak demand [29]. - For methanol, in the short - term, it shows range - bound fluctuations with price volatility risks. In the long - term, it may rebound if the signals are positive [47][48]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil Information - India may stop buying Russian oil, which could reconfigure global trade flows and tighten supply. The US and Russia will hold a meeting, and the IEA predicts an increase in global oil supply in 2025 and 2026 with weak demand. US economic data release is postponed, and economic activity shows some weakness [5]. - US refined product demand has mixed changes compared to last year. As of October 10, the average daily demand for total refined products is 2066.9 million barrels, down 0.5% from last year [6]. - US crude oil production hits a new high. As of October 10, daily production is 1363.6 million barrels, up 7000 barrels from the previous week and 13.6 million barrels from last year. Commercial crude inventory increases, while gasoline and distillate inventories change differently [7]. Polyester Product Prices and Basis - Prices of polyester products such as polyester bottle chips, short - fibers, and polyester filaments decline week - on - week. Basis values also show various changes [9]. PX Supply - Urumqi Petrochemical's 100 - million - ton device is under maintenance, and domestic PX production and capacity utilization decline slightly. Asian PX load rebounds slightly. Next week, PX supply is expected to decline slightly [12]. PTA Supply - Hengli Petrochemical reduces production, and Yisheng New Materials increases load. This week, PTA supply decreases slightly, and social inventory is reduced. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly [15]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - This week, domestic ethylene glycol supply decreases slightly. Port inventory accumulates, but next week, the accumulation pace may slow down due to reduced arrivals and increased demand [16]. Polyester End - The average weekly polyester start - up rate is 87.78%, down 0.02 percentage points week - on - week [17]. Polyester Inventory - Short - fiber inventory decreases, while long - filament inventory accumulates significantly [21]. Terminal Demand - Orders increase slightly, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom start - up rate is stable, and the peak season is not prominent [25]. Methanol Sector Methanol Price and Basis - Futures and spot prices of methanol change. The basis of MA2601 increases, and downstream product prices also show different trends [31]. Methanol Cost and Profit - This week, coal - based and coke - oven gas - based profits narrow slightly, and natural gas - based losses improve slightly. Olefin profits decline significantly, and traditional downstream profits are squeezed [37]. Methanol Supply - As of October 16, methanol start - up rate is 87.42%, down 2.11 percentage points, and production is 198.36 million tons, down 2.36% from the previous period. This week, more devices are under maintenance than those returning [40]. Methanol Demand - MTO start - up rate remains stable at 94%, and traditional downstream products show mixed performance with most at low levels [43]. Methanol Inventory - As of October 15, port inventory is 149.14 million tons, down 3.36%, and inland inventory is 35.99 million tons, up 6.04%. Port inventory decreases due to unloading issues and MTO support, while inland inventory accumulates [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Medium to long - term: Trade conflicts have intensified, and market sentiment is weak. Most black commodities showed weak performance this week. For rebar, supply decreased while demand increased, but the fundamental improvement was not obvious, and the main contract was under pressure from the 5 - day moving average. Although the daily average hot metal output continued to decline, it remained above 2.4 million tons, providing support to the iron ore demand side, while the supply side tended to be loose, and industrial negative feedback intensified. For glass, the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" fell short of expectations, the weak demand pattern was hard to change, the operating rate increased, and enterprise inventories accumulated, with the main contract dropping significantly on Friday. For soda ash, factory inventories accumulated, downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, the oversupply situation continued, and the main contract maintained a weak and volatile trend [63][67]. - Short - term: After the holiday, the recovery of the demand side fell short of expectations, the inventory reduction speed was slow, and the overall fundamental improvement was limited. The main contracts of the black series were mainly in a weak and volatile trend. This week, glass and soda ash continued to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of the demand side during the peak season and the policy signal orientation of subsequent important meetings [64][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Series Weekly Market Review - Rebar (RB2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3103.0 on October 10, 2025, to 3037.0 on October 17, 2025, a decrease of 66.0 or 2.1%. The spot price was 3200.0, and the basis (unconverted) was 163.0 [3]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3285.0 to 3204.0, a decrease of 81.0 or 2.5%. The spot price was 3270.0, and the basis was 66.0 [3]. - Iron ore (I2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 795.0 to 771.0, a decrease of 24.0 or 3.0%. The spot price was 788.0, and the basis was 17.0 [3]. - Coke (J2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 1666.5 to 1676.0, an increase of 9.5 or 0.6%. The spot price was 1620.0, and the basis was - 56.0 [3]. - Coking coal (JM2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 1161.0 to 1179.0, an increase of 18.0 or 1.6%. The spot price was 1350.0, and the basis was 171.0 [3]. - Glass (FG601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1207.0 to 1095.0, a decrease of 112.0 or 9.3%. The spot price was 1270.0, and the basis was 175.0 [3]. - Soda ash (SA601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1240.0 to 1209.0, a decrease of 31.0 or 2.5%. The spot price was 1271.3, and the basis was 62.3 [3]. Rebar - Profit: On October 16, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 60 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply side: As of October 17, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate was 84.27% (unchanged), the daily average hot metal output was 2.4095 million tons (a decrease of 0.59), and the rebar output was 2011600 tons (a decrease of 22400) [12]. - Demand side: In the week of October 17, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.1975 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 737400 tons. As of October 16, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 101819 tons [17]. - Inventory: In the week of October 17, the social inventory of rebar was 4.5641 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108900 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.8464 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77000 tons [22]. Iron Ore - Supply side: In the week of October 10, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.2075 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71500 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in the country was 3.1441 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 368300 tons [27]. - Inventory: In the week of October 17, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 14.96187 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320000 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.98273 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63460 tons [30]. - Demand side: In the week of October 17, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 3293200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 122200 tons. As of October 16, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 120700 tons [35]. Float Glass - Supply side: In the week of October 17, the number of operating float glass production lines was 226, a week - on - week increase of 1; the weekly output was 1128925 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate was 80.63% (unchanged), and the operating rate was 76.35% (unchanged) [38]. - Inventory: In the week of October 17, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 64.2756 million weight boxes, an increase of 1.4516 million weight boxes compared with October 10. The number of days of available in - plant inventory was 27.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 days [43]. - Demand side: As of September 30, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 11 days [47]. Soda Ash - Supply side: In the week of October 17, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.93%, a decrease of 3.48 percentage points compared with the previous week; the output was 740500 tons, a decrease of 30300 tons compared with the previous week [51]. - Factory inventory: As of October 17, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7005 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40700 tons [56]. - Production and sales rate: As of October 17, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 94.5%, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 percentage points [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, with sufficient arrival of imported soybeans and abundant inventories of soybeans and soybean meal, the weak pattern of soybean meal is hard to change, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the trade side. As aquaculture enters the off - season, downstream purchasing and sales are weak, and it will run weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean series is limited [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Price Trends - Futures: The closing price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract on October 16, 2025, was 2907 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 1.09%. The RM601 rapeseed meal futures contract was 2364 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.92%. The C2601 corn futures contract was 2111 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26%. The LH2601 live pig futures contract was 11905 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.67%. The JD2511 egg futures contract was 2818 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85% [4]. - Spot: The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong on October 16, 2025, was 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 0.34%. The rapeseed meal price in China was 2500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96%. The price of second - class national standard corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2150 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38%. The average出栏 price of commercial pigs in Henan was 11.21 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09%. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 2.93 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.35% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Information - Cost - side: In the US Midwest, most areas had good weather this week, which was conducive to harvesting. US soybean crushing data was strong. In September, the US soybean crushing volume reached 197.863 million bushels, a 4.2% increase from August and an 11.6% increase from September 2024. Brazil planned to export 2.153936 million tons of soybeans, 672,337 tons of soybean meal, and 1.8898 million tons of corn in the week of October 12 - 18. Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production was expected to be 51.1 million tons, and the 2025/26 soybean planting area was expected to be 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [8]. - Supply - side: In September 2025, China's soybean imports were 12.869 million tons, a 4.8% month - on - month increase and a 13.2% year - on - year increase [8]. - Demand - side: The domestic soybean crushing volume remained at a high level overall and entered a seasonal downward phase in October. As of the week of October 10, the domestic major oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 1.29 million tons [8]. - Inventory: In the 41st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts increased [8]. 3.3 Supply - side - Import - As of October 16, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 481.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The CNF price of imported soybeans from the US West was 444.00 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars/ton from the previous week [16]. 3.4 Supply - side - Pressing - As of the week of October 16, the soybean crushing profit was - 123.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.20 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of October 10, the weekly soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2365 million tons, a decrease of 1.0255 million tons from the previous week. As of October 10, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 57%, a recovery of 36 percentage points from the previous week [22]. 3.5 Inventory - side - As of October 17, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 7.1882 million tons, an increase of 0.6085 million tons from the previous week, and it was at a medium level in the past five years. As of October 10, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0467 million tons, a decrease of 0.1061 million tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively high level in the past five years [24]. 3.6 Demand - side - As of September 5, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 40,500 tons, a decrease of 130,600 tons from the previous week, and it was at a low level in the past five years [29]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - The strong US soybean crushing data overshadowed export concerns, and CBOT soybeans rebounded from the low level. Under the pressure of supply, domestic double - meal continued to decline. The US government's continuous shutdown led to a lack of export sales and supply - demand data, and the market sentiment remained cautious. After the festival, domestic oil mills resumed operation quickly, but the downstream replenishment enthusiasm was poor, resulting in slow inventory reduction of soybean meal. The market is closely watching whether the policy of imposing special port fees on US ships will affect soybean ships. The rapeseed meal market shows a pattern of both supply and demand being weak. The low operating rate of oil mills leads to a tight overall supply of rapeseed meal in the spot market. As the temperature gradually drops, aquaculture enters the off - season, and the overall market trading is light, with mainly rigid demand procurement [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Palm oil is expected to fluctuate widely and continue the oscillating trend next week [34]. - Medium - to long - term: Palm oil is currently in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart, and its center of gravity is expected to move up in the medium - to long - term [35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Futures and Spot Prices - From October 10 to October 17, 2025, the futures prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil all declined, with weekly declines of 1.38%, 1.99%, and 0.55% respectively. The spot prices also decreased, with weekly declines of 1.28%, 1.12%, and 0.59% respectively [4]. Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of October 17, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 196 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton from the previous week), 286 yuan/ton (an increase of 79 yuan/ton), and 74 yuan/ton (an increase of 8 yuan/ton) respectively. The YP spread was - 1052 yuan/ton (an increase of 84 yuan/ton from the previous week) [10]. Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of October 10, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 60,000 tons (a decrease of 16,700 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 547,600 tons, the national soybean oil mill inventory was 1,265,100 tons, and the total inventory of the three major oils was 1,872,700 tons [13]. Supply - side Analysis - **Palm oil**: MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, and Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory in July 2025 increased by 1.5% to 2.568 million tons [19]. - **Soybean oil**: As of October 10, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 10.092 million tons, the major oil mill soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, and the oil mill operating rate was 57%. As of October 16, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 608.30 yuan/ton (an increase of 7.1 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22]. - **Rapeseed oil**: As of October 10, 2025, the oil mill rapeseed inventory was 50,000 tons, the same as the previous week. As of October 17, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2066.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 94.20 yuan/ton from the previous week) [25]. Demand - side Analysis - On October 16, 2025, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 0 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 6,200 tons, and the POGO spread was 478.99 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 14.25 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil was 8.05 million tons [31]. Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: The US government shutdown led to a lack of official data guidance in the market; Canada's foreign minister will visit China this week, and Sino - Canadian relations may ease [32]. - **Foreign factors**: As of October 12, the US soybean harvest progress reached 58%, higher than 39% a week ago. The expected soybean good - to - excellent rate remained at 61%, the same as a week ago. The US soybean crushing volume in September 2025 was 197.863 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 186.34 million bushels. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, the production in September decreased by 0.73% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons, and the export volume increased by 7.69% month - on - month to 1.43 million tons [32]. - **Import and crushing**: The oil mill operating rate was 57%, the soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, and the oil mill rapeseed inventory was 50,000 tons, the same as the previous week [32]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 60,000 tons, the palm oil mill commercial inventory was 547,600 tons, and the national soybean oil mill inventory was 1,265,100 tons [32]. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of oils declined resonantly. The decline of palm oil spot price was 1.28%, that of soybean oil was 0.59%, and that of rapeseed oil was 1.12% [32]. Strategy Recommendation - This week, palm oil futures closed down 1.38%. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, far higher than the market expectation of 2.15 million tons. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15%. Considering that Malaysian palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction cycle and Indonesia's B50 policy will be implemented, there is still support from the origin in the medium - to long - term [33]. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The focus includes the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency Malaysian palm oil data, and weather [36]