Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the black commodity sector, covering varieties such as rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, and soda ash [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - **Long - term outlook**: For rebar and iron ore, construction site funds are improving, but the steel off - season is obvious, and the profitability of steel mills is narrowing. The supply of iron ore is loose, but iron - water production is falling. For glass and soda ash, glass inventory has stopped increasing, production has decreased, and sales are good. Soda ash supply has declined, and demand is expected to narrow [67][71] - **Short - term outlook**: Rebar and iron ore will fluctuate within a range. Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term due to cold - repair production cut expectations, while soda ash will continue to oscillate at a low level [68][72] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black Commodity Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/28 | Change | % Change | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2601 | 3057 | 3110 | 53 | 2 | 3250 | 140 | | Hot - rolled Coil | HC2601 | 3270 | 3302 | 32 | 1 | 3290 | - 12 | | Iron Ore | I2601 | 786 | 794 | 9 | 1 | 805 | 11 | | Coke | J2601 | 1615 | 1575 | - 40 | - 2 | 1770 | 196 | | Coking Coal | JM2601 | 1103 | 1067 | - 36 | - 3 | 1510 | 443 | | Glass | FG601 | 987 | 1053 | 66 | 7 | 1090 | 37 | | Soda Ash | SA601 | 1170 | 1177 | 7 | 1 | 1261 | 84 | [3] 3.2 Rebar - **Profit**: On November 27, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was - 19 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply**: As of November 28, the blast - furnace operating rate was 81.09%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points; the daily average pig - iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons; the rebar output was 2.0608 million tons, a decrease of 18,800 tons [12] - **Demand**: In the week of November 28, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.2794 million tons, a decrease of 28,500 tons compared with the previous week. As of November 27, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 92,694 tons [17] - **Inventory**: In the week of November 28, the social inventory of rebar was 3.8475 million tons, a decrease of 154,500 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.4673 million tons, a decrease of 65,900 tons [22] 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: In the week of November 21, the global iron - ore shipping volume was 3.2784 million tons, a decrease of 238,000 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.9395 million tons, an increase of 569,600 tons [27] - **Inventory**: In the week of November 28, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 15.90122 million tons, an increase of 166,370 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.94248 million tons, a decrease of 58,750 tons [32] - **Demand**: In the week of November 28, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 344,060 tons, an increase of 670 tons. As of November 27, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 119,100 tons [37] 3.4 Float Glass - **Supply**: In the week of November 28, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 220, a decrease of 1; the weekly output was 1,103,895 tons, a decrease of 6,300 tons. As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate was 78.58%, and the operating rate was 74.32% [42] - **Inventory**: In the week of November 28, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 62.362 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 941,000 tons; the available days of in - plant inventory were 27.5 days, the same as the previous week [47] - **Demand**: In the week of November 17, the number of days of deep - processing orders from glass downstream manufacturers was 9.9 days [51] 3.5 Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of November 28, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.08%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points; the output was 698,200 tons, a decrease of 22,700 tons [55] - **Inventory**: As of November 28, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons [60] - **Sales Ratio**: As of November 28, the sales ratio of soda ash was 108.16%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, palm oil is expected to be strong due to concerns about production cuts caused by floods in Southeast Asia; rapeseed oil will fluctuate as Australian rapeseeds are arriving but need time for customs clearance and pressing; soybean oil will have narrow - range fluctuations due to ample supply and lack of driving forces [28]. - In the medium - to - long - term, palm oil prices are expected to stabilize and rebound after bottom - hunting, considering the upcoming seasonal production cut in the producing areas and the long - term support of Indonesia's biodiesel policy; the trend of rapeseed oil prices depends on China - Canada trade relations; the soybean - palm oil price spread has been repaired, and the cost center of soybean oil is expected to rise [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From November 21 to 28, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) rose from 8550 to 8626, a weekly increase of 0.89%; the spot price fell from 8532 to 8518, a weekly decrease of 0.16% [4]. - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) dropped from 9816 to 9757, a weekly decrease of 0.60%; the spot price decreased from 10167 to 10145, a weekly decrease of 0.21% [4]. - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) increased from 8190 to 8244, a weekly increase of 0.66%; the spot price rose from 8392 to 8412, a weekly increase of 0.24% [4]. 3.2 Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of November 27, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 188 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week), 373 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week), and - 10 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [7]. - As of November 28, 2025, the YP spread was - 382 yuan/ton (a decrease of 22 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of November 21, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 2.45 million tons (an increase of 0.37 million tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 66.71 million tons (an increase of 1.39 million tons from the previous week); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 117.99 million tons (an increase of 3.14 million tons from the previous week); the total inventory of the three major oils was 187.15 million tons (an increase of 4.9 million tons from the previous week) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side of Palm Oil - As of November 28, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8884 yuan/ton (an increase of 71 yuan/ton from the previous week) [13]. - As of November 28, 2025, the gross profit of 24 - degree palm oil against the market was - 224 yuan/ton (a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from the previous week) [13]. - SPPOMA data showed that the year - on - year increase in Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 25, 2025, narrowed to 5.49% [13]. 3.5 Supply - side of Soybean Oil - As of November 21, 2025, the soybean inventory in national ports was 942.50 million tons (a decrease of 50.1 million tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 714.99 million tons (a decrease of 32.72 million tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 59% (a decrease of 3% from the previous week) [16]. - As of November 28, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 533.20 yuan/ton (an increase of 40.15 yuan/ton from the previous week) [16]. 3.6 Supply - side of Rapeseed Oil - As of November 21, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons (a decrease of 0.15 million tons from the previous week) [19]. - As of November 28, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2414.40 yuan/ton (an increase of 39.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19]. 3.7 Demand - side - On November 27, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 3700 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 6300 tons, and the POGO spread was 375.99 US dollars/ton (an increase of 30.75 US dollars/ton from the previous week) [25]. - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 805 million tons [25]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis of Three Major Oils - Policy: The Trump administration is considering extending the restrictions on imported raw materials and imported biodiesel. The US restructuring of the Energy Bureau and the abolition of renewable energy - related departments have limited the boost to the US biofuel policy. The market is concerned about the progress of China - Canada trade relations [26]. - Foreign factors: For US soybeans, the November USDA supply - demand report lowered the 2025/26 soybean yield per acre by 0.5 bushels to 53 bushels per acre, and the soybean production was also lowered to 4.253 billion bushels, lower than market expectations. Exports were unexpectedly lowered by 0.5 billion bushels, about 136 million tons. Since Tuesday, China has purchased at least 10 ships of US soybeans. Since late October, China has purchased about 3.5 million tons of US soybeans, about 30% of the 12 - million - ton purchase target [26]. For palm oil, SPPOMA data showed that the Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 5.49% compared with the same period last month. AmSpecAgri data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from November 1 - 25, 2025, decreased by 16.4% compared with the previous month. The increase in production and decline in exports increased the expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysia. Recent floods in Southeast Asia have raised concerns about the impact on Malaysian palm oil production [26]. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate decreased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons from the previous week [26]. - Inventory: As of November 14, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas increased to 2.45 million tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 66.71 million tons; the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 117.99 million tons [26]. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 0.16%, the spot price of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.21%, and the spot price of soybean oil increased by 0.24% [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core Views - The overall macro - sentiment is warming up, and different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and investment suggestions based on their own supply - demand fundamentals. For aluminum, copper, and lithium carbonate, short - and long - term investment strategies are proposed according to their market conditions [44][47][50] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures主力合约 (CU2601) rose from 85,660 yuan to 87,430 yuan, a weekly increase of 2.07%. The average price of 1 copper in Shanghai spot rose from 85,870 yuan to 87,340 yuan, a 1.71% increase [4] - Aluminum: The futures主力合约 (AL2601) rose from 21,340 yuan to 21,610 yuan, a 1.27% increase. The average price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai spot rose from 21,370 yuan to 21,440 yuan, a 0.33% increase [4] - Zinc: The futures主力合约 (ZN2601) rose slightly from 22,390 yuan to 22,425 yuan, a 0.16% increase. The average price of 0 zinc in Shanghai spot fell from 22,430 yuan to 22,370 yuan, a 0.27% decrease [4] - Lead: The futures主力合约 (PB2601) fell from 17,165 yuan to 17,090 yuan, a 0.44% decrease. The average price of 1 lead ingot fell from 17,075 yuan to 16,975 yuan, a 0.59% decrease [4] - Nickel: The futures主力合约 (NI2601) rose from 114,050 yuan to 117,080 yuan, a 2.66% increase. The average price of 1 electrolytic nickel rose from 116,700 yuan to 119,500 yuan, a 2.40% increase [4] - Alumina: The futures主力合约 (AO2601) fell from 2,713 yuan to 2,707 yuan, a 0.22% decrease. The alumina price in Foshan spot fell from 2,880 yuan to 2,870 yuan, a 0.35% decrease [4] - Industrial Silicon: The futures主力合约 (SI2601) rose from 8,960 yuan to 9,130 yuan, a 1.90% increase. The average price of 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,600 yuan [4] - Lithium Carbonate: The futures主力合约 (LC2605) rose from 91,960 yuan to 96,420 yuan, a 4.85% increase. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) rose from 91,800 yuan to 92,500 yuan, a 0.76% increase [4] - Polysilicon: The futures主力合约 (PS2601) rose from 53,360 yuan to 56,425 yuan, a 5.74% increase. The price of N - type polysilicon material remained unchanged at 52,300 yuan [4] 3.2 Metal Inventory Changes - **Copper**: As of November 28, SHFE copper inventory was 97,900 tons, a decrease of 12,700 tons (- 11.48%) from last week; LME copper inventory was 157,200 tons, a decrease of 700 tons (- 0.44%); COMEX copper inventory was 417,700 tons, an increase of 19,200 tons (+ 4.82%) [11][12] - **Zinc**: As of November 28, LME zinc inventory was 50,800 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons (+ 10.20%); SHFE zinc inventory was 67,600 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons (- 7.27%) [21] - **Aluminum**: As of November 28, LME aluminum inventory was 541,100 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons; SHFE aluminum inventory was 115,300 tons, a decrease of 8,400 tons; COMEX aluminum inventory was 5,669 tons, a decrease of 402 tons. Overall, electrolytic aluminum inventory showed a destocking trend [35] 3.3 Metal Ore Processing Fees and Indexes - Copper concentrate processing fees are at a historical low. As of November 27, the copper concentrate spot TC was - 42.15 dollars/ton, and the RC was - 4.21 cents/pound, with a tight supply expectation [13][15] - The lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index rose by 61 dollars/ton to 1,150 dollars/ton as of November 28 [17] - Zinc concentrate processing fees remained high. As of November 21, the zinc concentrate main port TC was 90 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars from November 14 [19][22] 3.4 Aluminum Supply - side Situation - **Raw materials**: As of November 21, the bauxite port inventory was 28.0236 million tons, a decrease of 498,700 tons from last week. As of the end of October, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 24.53 million tons, at a historical high [28] - **Alumina supply**: As of November 28, the weekly operating rate of alumina enterprises was 86.06%, slightly increased; the weekly output was 1.858 million tons, also increased. The total inventory was 4.942 million tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from last week [30] - **Electrolytic aluminum supply**: As of the end of October, China's primary aluminum output was 3.766 million tons, imports were 248,400 tons, and inventory was 618,000 tons. The electrolytic aluminum industry operating rate was 98.24%, remaining at a high level [33] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metal Demand - side Situation - **Automobile**: In October 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month growth of 2.5% and 3%, and year - on - year growth of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 13.2% and 12.4% [37] - **New energy vehicles**: In October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.772 million and 1.715 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 33.1% and 32.7% [38] - **Real estate**: From January to October, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new housing start area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [40] - **Power generation**: As of the end of October, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. The solar power installed capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%. In October, the new photovoltaic installed capacity was 12.6 GW, a 30.4% increase from September [42] 3.6 Strategy Recommendations - **Aluminum**: Short - term: Alumina is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to go long on SHFE aluminum at low prices. Long - term: Under the quantitative easing environment, SHFE aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, and alumina will oscillate weakly without large - scale production cuts [44][45] - **Copper**: Short - term: The game between long and short positions intensifies, and the price will oscillate in a high - level range. Long - term: There is long - term positive demand support, and it is recommended to go long in the medium - to - long - term [47][48] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term: The price may oscillate repeatedly at a high level, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of mines. Long - term: Energy storage provides strong demand support, and it is recommended to allocate long positions [50][51][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This year from January to October, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size slowed down, and the inventory of finished products increased year - on - year. After removing the influence of the low - base effect of the same period last year, corporate profitability remained weak. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has sharply increased, and gold is expected to rebound in the short term. The stock index may continue its phased adjustment after a short - term rebound [13][21][37] - In the short term, be cautious about the stock index's rebound and be vigilant against the risk of a fall again. Gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound. In the medium to long term, the stock index will maintain a wide - range shock, and gold may face a deep adjustment [37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data - From January to October this year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5,950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and the growth rate dropped by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, turning negative again after two months [4] Stock Index Fundamental Data Corporate Profit - From January to October this year, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size slowed down, and after removing the influence of the low - base effect of the same period last year, corporate profitability remained weak [13] Capital Situation - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly declined to 2,444.787 billion yuan. The central bank conducted a total of 1,511.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1,000 billion yuan of one - year MLF operations this week, achieving a net injection of 6.42 billion yuan [16] Gold Fundamental Data Risk - Free Interest Rate: Holding Cost and Inflation Level - Fed officials unexpectedly sent dovish signals, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in December soared. According to the CME 'FedWatch' tool, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December rose to 86.9%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield slightly declined [21][22] U.S. Retail Sales Monthly Rate and Employment Situation - Not provided Domestic and International Gold Inventory Situation - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures slowed down, and the inventory of COMEX gold in New York continued to decline, reflecting a cooling of the market's bullish sentiment [36] Strategy Recommendation - This year from January to October, the year - on - year profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size slowed down, mainly affected by the increase in the base of the same period last year and the weakening of demand. The prices of industries such as new energy, non - ferrous metals, and coal have rebounded, which is helpful for the profit recovery of upstream raw material processing industries; the profit growth of industries such as home appliances, mobile communications, and consumer electronics has slowed down, while the profit of high - end and equipment manufacturing industries has maintained rapid growth; downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure [37] - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has heated up, the external market has clearly recovered, and concerns about the bursting of the technology stock bubble have been temporarily alleviated. After a short - term rebound, the stock index may continue its phased adjustment. Gold can be regarded as a short - term rebound [37] - In the short term, be cautious about the stock index's rebound and be vigilant against the risk of a fall again. Fed officials' dovish remarks have reignited the market's expectation of a rate cut in December, and gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound. In the medium to long term, the stock index will maintain a wide - range shock, and gold may face a deep adjustment [37] - Next week's key points and risk warnings: important data such as the U.S. November manufacturing PMI and ADP employment figures [37]

能化板块周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251121 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 央视记者当地时间11月19日获悉，美国政府正与俄罗斯就结束俄乌冲突的框架协议接近达成"重大突破"，预计最迟本月底、甚至"最快本 周内"完成。据两名知情人士表示，美国已向乌克兰总统泽连斯基发出信号，要求乌方接受一项由美国起草的俄乌停战框架。该框架内容包 括乌克兰放弃部分领土并交出部分武器。据悉，美方将此方案视为结束,冲中突的核心基础，并要求乌克兰接受。 鲍玉虹 从业资讯证号：F03149670 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 聚酯板块数据周报 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 周四凌晨美联储公布十月货币政策会议纪要，大多数官员不支持12月进一步隆息，叠加美国劳工部不公布10月非农就业报告与11月合并发布， 削弱了美联储降息的数据依据，推动美元指数强势运行，以美元计价的原油价格持续面临下行压力。 周四晚间美国劳工部发布的9月非农就业数据显示，9月非农新增就业人口达到11.9万，明显高于市场预期，前两月就业人口被大幅下修3.3 万，数据发布后美联储隆息榔率只小幅升至35%，显示出在美国政府关门背景下就业市场仍展 ...

1. Report Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Long - term**: Construction site funds availability has slightly increased but remains significantly lower year - on - year. Real estate data recovery is slow. Steel mills' profitability is on the decline, and the steel fundamentals are weak, with a tendency for weak oscillations. Iron ore is under pressure due to expected supply loosening and a decline in daily hot - metal production. For glass and soda ash, glass inventory is accumulating, production is decreasing, and demand is weak. The supply of soda ash is loose, and the weak supply - demand situation is hard to change [68][72]. - **Short - term**: In the macro - policy vacuum period, the sentiment in the market is weak. The steel futures market will be in a weak oscillation, and iron ore will operate at a low level. The glass futures price is on a downward trend, dragging down the soda ash futures price, and both will be under pressure in the short term [69][73]. 3. Summary by Directory Black - series Weekly Market Review - **Futures Prices**: From November 14th to 21st, 2025, among the main futures contracts, the prices of螺纹钢,热卷, and铁矿石 increased, while those of 焦炭,焦煤, glass, and 纯碱 decreased. The price of 螺纹钢 rose from 3053 to 3057,热卷 from 3256 to 3270, and 铁矿石 from 773 to 786; 焦炭 dropped from 1670 to 1615,焦煤 from 1192 to 1103, glass from 1032 to 987, and 纯碱 from 1226 to 1170 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of 螺纹钢, 热卷, 铁矿石, 焦炭, 焦煤, 玻璃, and 纯碱 were 3220, 3270, 807, 1770, 1530, 1120, and 1261 respectively. The corresponding basis (unadjusted) was 163, 0, 22, 156, 427, 133, and 91 [3]. Rebar - **Profit**: On November 20th, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was - 31 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: As of November 21st, the blast - furnace operating rate was 82.19%, a decrease of 0.62 percentage points. The daily average hot - metal output was 236.28 tons, a decrease of 0.6 tons, while the weekly rebar production was 207.96 tons, an increase of 7.96 tons [13]. - **Demand**: In the week of November 21st, the apparent consumption of rebar was 230.79 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.42 tons. As of November 20th, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 84,520 tons [18]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21st, the social inventory of rebar was 400.02 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.73 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 153.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.1 tons [23]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: In the week of November 14th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.164 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.474 million tons, and the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.699 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.994 million tons [28]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21st, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 157.3485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7799 million tons, and the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 90.0123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.7478 million tons [33]. - **Demand**: In the week of November 21st, the daily average port - clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 3.4339 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0311 million tons. As of November 20th, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 0.918 million tons [38]. Float Glass - **Supply**: In the week of November 21st, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 222, the same as the previous week. The weekly output was 1.110195 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3750 tons. As of November 20th, the capacity utilization rate was 79.03%, and the operating rate was 74.66% [43]. - **Inventory**: In the week of November 21st, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 63.303 million weight - boxes, a week - on - week increase of 56,000 tons, and the available inventory days were 27.5, the same as the previous week [48]. - **Demand**: In the week of November 17th, the deep - processing order days of glass downstream manufacturers were 9.9 days [52]. Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of November 21st, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 82.68%, a decrease of 2.12 percentage points compared with the previous week, and the output was 720,900 tons, a decrease of 18,300 tons compared with the previous week [56]. - **Inventory**: As of November 21st, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.6444 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62,900 tons [61]. - **Sales Rate**: As of November 21st, the sales rate of soda ash was 108.73%, a week - on - week increase of 7.8 percentage points [65].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the oil mill's soybean crushing volume remains high, and the de - stocking pace is slow, so the soybean meal futures market will continue to be weak. The rapeseed meal inventory in oil mills and ports continues to decline, but the weakening aquaculture demand restricts the upward potential of the rapeseed meal futures market [40]. - In the medium - to - long - term, changes in trade relations are still the key driving factors for the supply side of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures and spot prices of major feed and aquaculture products in China have shown different trends. The futures prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, and live pigs have declined, while the futures price of eggs has increased. The spot prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and eggs have decreased, while the spot price of corn has increased slightly, and the spot price of live pigs has decreased slightly [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **Cost Side** - Weather: In the next 10 - 15 days, North America will be warm and humid, while key agricultural areas in South America, especially southern Brazil and Argentina, face drought risks, which may affect the growth of crops such as corn and soybeans [10]. - US Soybeans: The US soybean harvest progress is slower than in previous years. As of November 16, the US soybean harvest progress was 95%, behind the 98% in the same period in 2025 and the five - year average of 96% [10]. - Brazil: Brazil's soybean exports in November 2025 are expected to reach 4.71 million tons, 101% higher than in November 2025 [10]. - Argentina: As of November 20, the soybean planting rate in Argentina's 2025/26 season was 25%, up from 15% last week but lower than 36% in the same period in 2024 [10]. - **Supply** - Import: In October, China imported no soybeans from the US for the second consecutive month, but the total soybean imports reached a record high of 9.48 million tons. China imported 7.12 million tons from Brazil (a 28.8% year - on - year increase) and 1.57 million tons from Argentina (a 15.4% year - on - year increase). Since the beginning of 2025, China has imported 16.82 million tons of soybeans from the US, a 11.5% year - on - year increase [10]. - Pressing: The weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills decreased to 2.4234 million tons as of November 14, and the soybean pressing profit was - 80.05 yuan/ton as of November 20, a decrease of 39.04 yuan/ton from the previous week [25][26]. - **Demand** - Pressing: The operating rate of oil mills this week increased to 66%, and the soybean meal inventory is close to one million tons and still needs to be reduced [10]. - Transaction: On November 20, the total soybean meal transaction volume of major domestic oil mills was 285,200 tons, a decrease of 115,300 tons from the previous trading day [10]. - **Inventory** - Oil Mill Inventory: In the 46th week of 2025, the soybean inventory, soybean meal inventory, and unexecuted contracts of major domestic oil mills all decreased. The soybean inventory was 7.4771 million tons, a 1.87% decrease from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 992,900 tons, a 0.57% decrease from the previous week [10]. 3.3 Supply Side - Import - As of November 20, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 490.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars/ton from the previous week, and the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 500.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18]. 3.4 Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week of November 20, the soybean pressing profit was - 80.05 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39.04 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of November 14, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4234 million tons, a decrease of 248,500 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 60%, an increase of 7 percentage points from the previous week [25][26]. 3.5 Inventory Side - As of November 21, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.2379 million tons, a decrease of 60,200 tons from the previous week. As of November 14, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 954,500 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons from the previous week [29]. 3.6 Demand Side - As of November 14, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 76,900 tons, the same as the previous week [32]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Supply Side The report shows the historical data of rapeseed imports, rapeseed meal production, and expected rapeseed arrivals at domestic pressing plants [36]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory Side The report presents data on rapeseed meal's initial inventory, supply, demand,提货 volume, apparent consumption, and trading volume in China [38]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The soybean meal futures market will continue to be weak, and the upward potential of the rapeseed meal futures market will be restricted [40]. - Medium - to - long - term: Changes in trade relations are the key factors affecting the supply of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [41]. 3.10 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warnings The focus includes产区 weather, trade relations, and the arrival schedule of imported soybeans [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, alumina is expected to run in a weak and volatile manner, and Shanghai aluminum will run in a high - level volatile manner, with a suggestion to wait and see; in the long - term, in a quantitative easing environment, Shanghai aluminum will run with a slight upward trend, and alumina will run weakly until large - scale production cuts occur [44] - For copper, in the short - term, the game between bulls and bears intensifies, and it will oscillate in a high - level range; in the long - term, there is long - term positive support for demand, and it is expected to be bullish [47] - Regarding lithium carbonate, in the short - term, there may be repeated high - level oscillations; in the long - term, energy storage provides strong demand support, and it is recommended to allocate bullishly [50] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures主力合约 (CU2601) closed at 86,900 on November 7th and 85,660 on November 14th, with a weekly change of - 1,240 and a weekly decline of 1.43%. The spot average price of 1 copper in Shanghai dropped from 87,070 to 85,870, a decline of 1.38% [4] - Aluminum: The futures主力合约 (AL2601) decreased from 21,840 to 21,340, a weekly decline of 2.29%. The spot average price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai dropped from 21,900 to 21,370, a decline of 2.42% [4] - Zinc: The futures主力合约 (ZN2601) decreased slightly by 0.33%, and the spot average price of 0 zinc in Shanghai declined by 0.22% [4] - Lead: The futures主力合约 (PB2601) declined by 1.94%, and the spot average price of 1 lead ingot dropped by 2.01% [4] - Nickel: The futures主力合约 (NI2601) declined by 2.75%, and the spot average price of 1 electrolytic nickel dropped by 2.42% [4] - Alumina: The futures主力合约 (AO2601) declined by 3.86%, and the spot price in Foshan dropped by 0.35% [4] - Industrial silicon: The futures主力合约 (SI2601) declined by 0.67%, while the spot average price of 553 silicon increased by 1.05% [4] - Lithium carbonate: The futures主力合约 (LC2601) increased by 4.19%, and the spot average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) increased by 8.77% [4] - Polysilicon: The futures主力合约 (PS2511) increased by 4.83%, while the spot price of N - type polysilicon remained unchanged [4] 3.2 Copper - related - As of November 21st, SHFE copper inventory was 110,600 tons, a 1.10% increase from last week. As of November 20th, LME copper inventory was 157,900 tons, a 16.36% increase, and COMEX copper inventory was 398,500 tons, a 1.84% increase [14][15] - As of November 21st, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 41.72 dollars/ton, and the spot RC was - 4.17 cents/pound, with the expectation of tight supply at the mine end remaining [18] 3.3 Lithium - related - As of November 21st, the index of spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was 1,089 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 83 dollars/ton [20] 3.4 Aluminum - related - Aluminum raw material supply: As of November 21st, the port inventory of bauxite was 2,802.36 million tons, a decrease of 498,700 tons from last week. As of the end of October, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was at a historical high [25] - Alumina supply: As of November 21st, the operating rate of alumina enterprises was 85.46%, a slight increase, and the total inventory was 488,300 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from last week [32] - Electrolytic aluminum supply: As of the end of October, China's primary aluminum production was 3,766,000 metric tons, imports were 248,400 tons, inventory was 618,000 tons, and the operating rate was 98.24%, remaining at a high level [35] - Aluminum inventory in the three major exchanges: As of November 20th, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 9,100 tons, SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 1,564 tons, and COMEX aluminum inventory decreased by 604 tons. Overall, electrolytic aluminum inventory showed a downward trend this week [37][38] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metal Demand - In September 2025, automobile production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 16.4% and 12.9%, and year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September 2025, automobile production and sales reached 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9% [40] - In September 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%. From January to September 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 35.2% and 34.9% [40] - From January to September, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6,485.8 million square meters, a 9.4% year - on - year decrease. The new housing start - up area was 453.99 million square meters, a 18.9% decrease, and the housing completion area was 311.29 million square meters, a 15.3% decrease [41] - As of the end of September, the cumulative power generation installed capacity nationwide was 3.72 billion kilowatts, a 17.5% year - on - year increase. Among them, the solar power installed capacity was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a 45.7% increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a 21.3% increase [41] 3.6 Strategy Recommendations Aluminum - Short - term: Alumina runs weakly and volatilely, and Shanghai aluminum runs in a high - level volatile manner. It is recommended to wait and see [44] - Long - term: In a quantitative easing environment, Shanghai aluminum runs with a slight upward trend; alumina runs weakly until large - scale production cuts occur [44] Copper - Short - term: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and it oscillates in a high - level range [47] - Long - term: There is long - term positive support for demand, and it is bullish [47] Lithium Carbonate - Short - term: There may be repeated high - level oscillations [50] - Long - term: Energy storage provides strong demand support, and it is recommended to allocate bullishly [50]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: High - frequency data is bearish, and the expectation of inventory accumulation increases, so palm oil will run weakly; Australian rapeseed will arrive at ports one after another, but it will take time for customs clearance and pressing, so rapeseed oil will run in a volatile manner; soybean oil mills maintain a high operating rate, with ample supply, and will run weakly due to the disturbance of US biodiesel policy [28]. - Medium - to long - term: After palm oil finds the bottom in a volatile manner, considering that the producing areas are about to enter the seasonal production - reduction cycle and the long - term support of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, the futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound; rapeseed oil needs to closely monitor the Sino - Canadian trade trend, which may determine the futures price trend; the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has been repaired, and considering that soybean oil consumption is still cost - effective, the cost center is expected to rise [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Domestic Three - major Oil Spot Price Trends - From November 14 to 21, 2025, the futures prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil decreased by 1.09%, 1.08%, and 0.80% respectively. The spot prices decreased by 0.16%, 1.43%, and 0.47% respectively [4]. 3.2 Three - major Oil Basis Changes - As of November 20, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 198 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week), 361 yuan/ton (an increase of 9 yuan/ton), and 30 yuan/ton (an increase of 72 yuan/ton) respectively. As of November 21, 2025, the YP price difference was - 360 yuan/ton (an increase of 28 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three - major Oil Inventory Trends - As of November 14, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 2.08 million tons (a decrease of 0.52 million tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills totaled 65.32 million tons (an increase of 5.59 million tons); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 114.85 million tons (a decrease of 0.87 million tons); the total inventory of the three - major oils was 182.25 million tons (an increase of 4.2 million tons) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis - **Palm Oil**: As of November 21, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8813 yuan/ton (a decrease of 152 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the gross profit against the market was - 79 yuan/ton (an increase of 171 yuan/ton). From November 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.32% month - on - month [13]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of November 14, 2025, the soybean inventory in national ports was 992.60 million tons (a decrease of 40.8 million tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 747.71 million tons (a decrease of 14.24 million tons), and the mill operating rate was 62% (an increase of 7% from the previous week). The soybean crushing profit was - 573.35 yuan/ton (a decrease of 61.85 yuan/ton) [16]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of November 14, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.25 million tons (a decrease of 0.25 million tons from the previous week). As of November 20, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2533.80 yuan/ton (a decrease of 159.4 yuan/ton) [19]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On November 20, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 1400 tons, the trading volume of first - class soybean oil was 12500 tons, and the POGO price difference was 345.24 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 7.5 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [25]. 3.6 Three - major Oil Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: There have been many disturbances in the US biodiesel policy recently. There are rumors of more favorable blending volume and also negative news of delaying or reducing import biofuel subsidies. The US Department of Energy announced a restructuring on November 20, prioritizing oil and nuclear energy and replacing the renewable energy efficiency department. The market is also concerned about the progress of Sino - Canadian trade relations [26]. - **Foreign Factors**: The latest USDA supply - and - demand report lowered the 2025/26 soybean yield per acre by 0.5 bushels to 53 bushels per acre, and the soybean production was also lowered to 4.253 billion bushels, lower than market expectations. In addition, exports were unexpectedly lowered by 50 million bushels, about 1.36 million tons. From November 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.32% month - on - month, while exports decreased by 20.5% month - on - month, increasing the expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil [26]. - **Import and Pressing**: The operating rate of oil mills increased by 7% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.25 million tons, a decrease of 0.25 million tons from the previous week [26]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 2.08 million tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 65.32 million tons; the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills decreased to 114.85 million tons [26]. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of the three - major oils decreased in resonance. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 0.16%, rapeseed oil by 1.43%, and soybean oil by 0.47% [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term: Due to the marginal weakening of domestic economic data and the need to digest external negative factors, the stock index will enter an adjustment phase from high - level oscillation; the hawkish speeches of Fed officials have further dampened the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, and the short - term rebound of gold may continue to adjust [44]. - Medium - to long - term: The valuation of the stock index will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, and the stock index will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term; with the fading of concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the narrowing space for further interest rate cuts by the Fed, there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [44]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to October this year, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, with the decline expanding for 8 consecutive months; infrastructure investment decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, turning negative for the first time since September 2020; manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing down by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, hitting a new low since February 2021 [6]. 3.2. Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.2.1. Enterprise Profit and Capital - In October this year, the scale of new loans and social financing declined significantly. The year - on - year growth rate of broad money supply M2 was 8.2%, and that of M1 was 6.2%, down 0.2 and 1 percentage points from the previous month respectively, and the gap between them widened again [19]. - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly declined to 24724.55 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 1676 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 554 billion yuan [23]. 3.3. Gold Fundamental Data 3.3.1. Interest Rate and Inflation - In September, the number of new non - farm jobs in the US was 119,000, far exceeding the expected 50,000. Many Fed officials made hawkish speeches, expressing concerns about high inflation, and the call against further interest rate cuts is rising. The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds is running at a high level [28]. 3.3.2. Inventory - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures are slowing down, and the inventory of COMEX gold in New York is continuously decreasing, reflecting a cooling of the market's bullish sentiment [39]. 3.4. Strategy Recommendation - The economic data in October this year generally weakened, with the year - on - year decline of fixed - asset investment expanding, industrial production slowing down, and the growth rate of consumption declining marginally. In terms of enterprise profits, there is a differentiation among different industries. The decline in profits of upstream raw material processing industries has narrowed, while the profits of high - end and equipment manufacturing industries have maintained rapid growth. However, due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure [43]. - Considering that the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, there is no pressure to achieve the expected annual development target, and the necessity of further strengthening macro - policies at the end of the year has decreased. Influenced by the continuous slump in the external market, there are concerns about the bursting of the technology stock bubble. With the marginal weakening of domestic economic data, the market expectation is gradually returning to reality, and the stock index may enter a phased adjustment in the short term [43]. - The minutes of the Fed meeting released hawkish signals. Many officials are concerned about high inflation and need to be cautious about further interest rate cuts. It implies that without sufficient evidence of an unexpected decline in inflation or continuous weakness in the labor market, the Fed may suspend interest rate cuts at the December meeting. Due to the shutdown of the US federal government, the November non - farm payrolls report has been postponed to December 16, meaning that there will be no new employment data for the Fed's December meeting, and the market has further reduced its bets on a December interest rate cut. In the short term, the internal differences within the Fed on future interest rate policies have increased, and the call against further interest rate cuts is rising, pushing up the US dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, and gold has come under pressure again in the short term [43].