股指、黄金周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251017 今年9月官方制造业PMI连续两个月回升，但尚未摆脱收缩区间，工业生产进一步加快， 需求边际改善。新增贷款和社融规模回升，CPI、PPI同比降幅收窄，进出口增速加快。 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 股指、黄金现货价格走势 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内外宏观经济数据 IF 惠农保价稳产 IC IH 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 AU 股指基本面数据 企业盈利 资金面 利率 流动性 今年1-8月规模以上工业企业利润同比转正，产成品存货增速继续下降。但由于终端需 求疲软，下游企业经营压力依然较大，生产成本难以向终端消费者转嫁，不得不主动 减少产量和降低库存。 惠农保价稳产 沪深两市融资余额上升至24325.75亿元，再创历史新高，央行本周共开展6731亿7天 期逆回购操作，实现净回笼3479亿元。 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 黄金基本面数据 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 无风险利率：持有成 ...

股指、黄金周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20250926 惠农保价稳产 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 股指、黄金现货价格走势 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内外宏观经济数据 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 今年8月经济数据普遍转弱，固定资产投资增速继续下行，房地产投资降幅进一步扩大， 基建和制造业投资增速放缓。房地产销售短暂回暖后再次下滑，房企资金周转压力加 大，对土地购置和新项目建设保持谨慎。 IF 惠农保价稳产 IC IH AU 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 股指基本面数据 企业盈利 资金面 节前央行加大逆回购操作，市场流动性保持充裕。M1与M2之间的剪刀差收窄，社融增 速加快主要受政府债券发行放量的带动，包括超长期特别国债和地方专项债。 无风险利率：持有成本 通胀水平 美国第二季度GDP增速环比大幅上修至3.8%，创两年新高，当周初请失业金人数连续两 周下降。表明美国经济依然稳健，劳动力需求有所放缓，但仍在充分就业的范围内， 惠农保价稳产 沪深两市融资余额突破2.4万亿元，再创历史新高。央行本周共开展15674亿7天期和 9000亿14天期逆回购操 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative impact of US tariff policies is gradually emerging, international trade activities are slowing down, and the global economy will still face downward pressure. The Fed's monetary policy has returned to the interest rate cut cycle, but the reduction of the balance sheet continues, which may lead to a shortage of US dollar liquidity and financial de - leveraging. The stock markets of major developed countries such as Europe and the United States are at historical highs, and asset prices are at risk of being re - evaluated. - China's economic recovery foundation is not solid, with fixed - asset investment growth continuing to decline and consumption growth slowing marginally. Only industrial production remains at a high level. Macroeconomic policies need to strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, and the proactive fiscal policy is being accelerated, while the monetary policy will remain moderately loose. - In the fourth quarter, the valuation of stock indices will be supported by risk appetite at the denominator end, but stock indices should still be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset before corporate profits improve significantly. The restart of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle will narrow the Sino - US interest rate spread, giving more room for China's monetary policy, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline. The uncertainty of US tariff policies is gradually fading, and the international geopolitical situation is expected to ease. Gold is at risk of a deep adjustment [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Overseas Macroeconomic Outlook - **Market Performance in Q3 2025**: Global stock markets rose in resonance, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq reaching new highs. Commodities such as coal, steel, and non - ferrous metals rebounded. Gold broke through upwards after 4 months of consolidation, with London spot gold approaching $3,800 per ounce, up more than 40% for the year [4]. - **Outlook for Q4**: The negative impact of US tariff policies will further appear, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice in Q4, and the global economy will face downward pressure. If the US job market weakens further, the Fed may shift from "preventive" to "relief" interest rate cuts. Global stock markets may face asset value re - evaluation risks [5]. - **US Situation**: Employment pressure is increasing, and the Fed's monetary policy has returned to the interest rate cut cycle. In August, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, the consumer confidence index dropped to 58.2, new non - farm employment was 22,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September, and the dot - plot shows two more cuts this year [7][9]. - **European Situation**: The European Central Bank suspended interest rate cuts in September, and the benchmark interest rate is approaching the neutral level. The eurozone economy has warmed up, with the manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion range, low unemployment, and stable inflation [11][14]. - **Japanese Situation**: The Japanese economy maintains a moderate recovery, and the central bank maintains a slow interest rate hike rhythm. In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.9, the consumer confidence index reached a new high, the unemployment rate dropped to 2.3%, and inflation remained above 2% [16][19]. Domestic Economic Situation Analysis - **Overall Situation in Q3 2025**: Affected by US tariff policies, China's economic downward pressure has emerged again, with fixed - asset investment declining, consumption growth slowing, and only industrial production remaining high. The foundation of economic recovery is not solid, and demand is insufficient [21]. - **Negative Impact of US Tariff Policies**: In August, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4, still in the contraction range. From January to August, fixed - asset investment growth slowed, industrial production slowed slightly but remained high, consumption growth slowed, CPI turned negative, PPI decline narrowed, and foreign trade growth slowed [23][25]. - **Fiscal and Monetary Policies**: The proactive fiscal policy is being accelerated, with super - long - term special treasury bonds and local special bonds mostly issued. The monetary policy will remain loose, and there is more room for operation with the Fed's interest rate cuts. Deposit rates are expected to be cut, and there may be a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut in Q4 [31][33]. Asset Allocation - **Stock Indices**: Corporate profits are still declining, and the inventory cycle is in the active de - stocking stage. There is still room for the risk - free rate to decline, and there are many positive factors affecting risk appetite. In Q4, stock indices are likely to oscillate widely, and the key is whether corporate profits can improve significantly [38][39]. - **Bonds**: The negative impact of US tariff policies is emerging, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice. The Sino - US interest rate spread will narrow, and China's monetary policy has more room. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds may decline [40]. - **Gold**: In the medium - to - long - term, gold prices depend on the US dollar and real interest rates. In Q4, as trade policy uncertainty decreases and geopolitical tensions ease, gold may face a deep adjustment due to factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and high real interest rates [41][42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to repeated digestion of domestic policy benefits and unimproved corporate profits, the stock index may face callback risks; after the Fed's September rate cut, the expectation of three rate cuts this year has been digested, and gold may enter a phase - based adjustment after a rapid rise. In the medium - to long - term, the stock index's valuation is dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth, and it will maintain a wide - range oscillation; gold may face a deep adjustment due to the fading of uncertainties and fully digested rate - cut expectations [39] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to August this year, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, industrial production decreased but remained at a high level, and the consumption growth rate slowed down marginally, indicating a weak foundation for China's economic recovery, with prominent characteristics of strong production but weak demand and strong service industry but weak manufacturing [4][39] 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data - The year - on - year growth rate of M1 continued to rise, and the gap with M2 further narrowed, reflecting increased fiscal spending and a transfer of government deposits to enterprises and residents. The A - share market was active with abundant liquidity [15] - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets approached 2.4 trillion yuan, hitting a new high. The central bank conducted 1.8268 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net injection of 562.3 billion yuan [18] 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in the US dropped from 58.2 to 55.4 in September, hitting a new low since June. The one - year inflation expectation was 4.8%, down 0.1 percentage point from last month, indicating negative impacts of US tariff policies, a slowdown in labor demand, and suppressed consumer confidence and spending [26] - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures continued to soar, reflecting increased demand for physical gold delivery and high market bullish sentiment [37] 3.4 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Be cautious of the callback risk of the stock index; gold may enter a phase - based adjustment. Medium - to long - term: The stock index will maintain a wide - range oscillation; gold may face a deep adjustment [39]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the price of US soybeans and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans support from the import cost side, so soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term; the oil mill's operating rate remains low, and the demand - side support is limited, so it should be treated with a fluctuating mindset [37]. - In the long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean sector is limited [38]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Prices | Variety | Futures Main Contract Closing Price (Sep 11, 2025) | Futures Main Contract Closing Price (Sep 3, 2025) | Futures Weekly Change | Futures Weekly Increase/Decrease (%) | Spot Price (Sep 11, 2025) | Spot Price (Sep 3, 2025) | Spot Weekly Change | Spot Weekly Increase/Decrease (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal | 3088 | 3066 | 22 | 0.72 | 2990 | 2990 | 0 | 0 | | Rapeseed Meal | 2567 | 2521 | 46 | 1.82 | 2620 | 2580 | 40 | 1.55 | | Corn | 2202 | 2193 | 9 | 0.41 | 2320 | 2310 | 10 | 0.43 | | Live Pigs | 13320 | 13550 | - 230 | - 1.70 | 13.5 | 13.96 | - 0.46 | - 3.30 | | Eggs | 3044 | 3011 | 33 | 1.10 | 3.53 | 3.19 | 0.34 | 10.66 | [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - end**: The temperature in the Midwest of the US will be higher than normal from the weekend to early next week, and rainfall will also increase. The dry weather in the southern and eastern regions continues to have an adverse impact on corn and soybean crops. As of the week of September 7, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybean crops was 64%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, slightly lower than 65% in the same period in 2024 but higher than the five - year average of 59%. Brazilian soybean exports in September 2025 are estimated to be 7430000 tons, 44% higher than in September 2024. The estimated soybean output in Argentina's 2025/2026 season is 47000000 tons [9]. - **Supply**: From January to August 2025, China's total soybean imports reached 7331200 tons, a 4.0% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [9]. - **Demand**: Since September, as the temperature drops, the operating rate of the terminal aquaculture industry has gradually recovered, the rigid demand for soybean meal has recovered, and the market's enthusiasm for purchasing soybean meal has increased [9]. - **Inventory**: The current national oil mill's soybean meal inventory pressure is significant, and the phenomenon of oil mills urging提货 is common. As of the end of the 36th week of 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 116000 tons, an increase of 9700 tons from the previous week, a 9.09% increase [9]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis - **Import**: As of September 11, the CNF Brazilian soybean import price was 485.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton from the previous week; the CNF US West soybean import price was 442.00 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous week [14]. - **Pressing**: As of the week of September 11, the soybean pressing profit was 86.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.00 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of September 05, the domestic oil mill's weekly soybean pressing volume was 2354800 tons, a decrease of 42700 tons from the previous week. As of September 05, the domestic soybean oil mill's operating rate was 60%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous week [19][21]. 3.4 Inventory - side Analysis - As of September 12, the imported soybean port inventory was 6635600 tons, a decrease of 142900 tons from the previous week, and it was at a low level in the past 5 years. As of September 5, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 1063900 tons, an increase of 49000 tons from the previous week, and it was at a moderately high level in the past 5 years [26]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - As of September 05, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 92200 tons, a decrease of 39300 tons from the previous week, and it was at a medium level in the past 5 years [28]. 3.6 Pig - side Supply and Demand No specific content provided in the summary scope. 3.7 Pig - side Slaughter and Breeding Profits No specific content provided in the summary scope. 3.8 Strategy Recommendation - Before the release of the USDA supply - demand report this Friday, US soybeans will fluctuate, and domestic double - meal will also maintain a fluctuating trend. The demand from China, the largest importer of US soybeans, is weak, and the market generally expects the US soybean yield forecast to be lowered. In the domestic spot market, the trading sentiment in the soybean meal spot market has recovered, and the oil mill's spot transactions have increased slightly, but traders are still in a slight loss [37]. - For rapeseed meal, currently affected by the decrease in Canadian rapeseed imports, the oil mill's operating level is low. Spot transactions are average, the demand side has not yet recovered, the substitution effect of soybean meal still exists, the aquaculture industry's prosperity is low, and downstream procurement is cautious [37]. 3.9 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus is on the producing area's weather, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [39].

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report - Report Date: 9/12/2025 - Author: Shi Lei, Shi Zhuoran [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Mid - long term: The rebar 01 contract mainly oscillated at a low level this week. Steel mills have fully resumed production, and the supply of rebar is expected to increase. The PPI continued to decline in August but the decline narrowed, the PMI data was still below the boom - bust line, and the real estate data remained weak, lacking support on the finished product demand side. The new policy proposed by the Guinean government regarding the Simandou iron ore development has a shrinking impact. The daily average hot metal output has significantly increased, strengthening the support on the iron ore demand side, and it will continue to oscillate in the short term. For glass, the start - up rate was flat with last week, the weekly output increased, the factory inventory decreased, and the demand side recovered slowly. For soda ash, the factory inventory continued to decline, with mainly rigid demand procurement from downstream, and the improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals was limited, and the main contract oscillated weakly and steadily [64][68]. - Short term: Recently, the main contracts of the black series mainly oscillated within a range. Pay attention to the demand start - up situation during the "Golden September and Silver October". This week, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash improved limitedly, and the disk continued to consolidate at the bottom [65][69]. Summary by Directory Black Series Weekly Market Review - Rebar (RB2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3143.0 on 9/5/2025 to 3127.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 16.0 (-0.5%), the spot price was 3220.0, and the basis was 93.0 [3]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 3340.0 on 9/5/2025 to 3364.0 on 9/12/2025, an increase of 24.0 (0.7%), the spot price was 3400.0, and the basis was 36.0 [3]. - Iron ore (I2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 789.5 on 9/5/2025 to 799.5 on 9/12/2025, an increase of 10.0 (1.3%), the spot price was 796.0, and the basis was - 3.5 [3]. - Coke (J2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1646.5 on 9/5/2025 to 1625.5 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 21.0 (-1.3%), the spot price was 1620.0, and the basis was - 5.5 [3]. - Coking coal (JM2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1158.5 on 9/5/2025 to 1144.5 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 14.0 (-1.2%), the spot price was 1280.0, and the basis was 135.5 [3]. - Glass (FG601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1189.0 on 9/5/2025 to 1180.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 9.0 (-0.8%), the spot price was 1240.0, and the basis was 60.0 [3]. - Soda ash (SA601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1302.0 on 9/5/2025 to 1290.0 on 9/12/2025, a decrease of 12.0 (-0.9%), the spot price was 1280.9, and the basis was - 9.1 [3]. Rebar - Profit: On September 11, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton compared with September 4 [7]. - Supply: As of 9/12/2025, the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.83%, an increase of 3.43 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons; the rebar output was 2.1193 million tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons [12]. - Demand: In the week of September 12, the apparent consumption of rebar was 1.9807 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 91,912 tons [17]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the social inventory of rebar was 4.8723 million tons, an increase of 185,700 tons compared with the previous week; the factory inventory was 1.6663 million tons, a decrease of 47,100 tons [22]. Iron Ore - Supply: In the week of September 5, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2.7562 million tons, a decrease of 800,600 tons compared with the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in the country was 2.5729 million tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons [27]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 14.45612 million tons, an increase of 30,400 tons compared with the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel enterprises was 8.99305 million tons, an increase of 53,180 tons [30]. - Demand: In the week of September 12, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 344,390 tons, an increase of 14,060 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 112,400 tons [35]. Float Glass - Supply: In the week of September 12, the number of float glass production lines in operation was 225, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1.121225 million tons, an increase of 4,200 tons compared with the previous week; as of September 11, the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points; the start - up rate was 76.01%, the same as last week [38]. - Inventory: In the week of September 12, the factory inventory of float glass was 61.583 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.467 million weight boxes compared with September 5; the available days of factory inventory were 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.6 days compared with the previous week [43]. - Demand: As of September 1, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 10.4 days [47]. Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of September 12, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87.29%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points compared with last week; the output was 761,100 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons compared with the previous week [52]. - Inventory: As of September 12, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 24,600 tons compared with the previous week [57]. - Sales - to - production ratio: As of September 12, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 103.23%, a decrease of 2.81 percentage points compared with the previous week [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Polyester Sector**: In the short - term, supply is expected to increase while demand improvement is limited, so the polyester sector will run weakly. In the medium - to - long - term, with unobvious demand peak season features, the polyester sector will fluctuate widely within a range [41][42]. - **Methanol**: In the short - term, although it is the demand peak season, the supply side still has pressure, and methanol will continue to fluctuate within a range. In the medium - to - long - term, there is continuous pressure on the supply side and stable demand support, resulting in a multi - empty game for methanol [60][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Israel's strike on Hamas in Qatar has increased Middle East tensions, providing some support for crude oil prices. However, EIA and IEA monthly reports have raised global oil supply growth forecasts, and EIA inventory data shows a seasonal decline in US crude oil demand, making it difficult for oil prices to rise. If the geopolitical situation eases, the pressure for crude oil adjustment will increase [6][7][41]. - OPEC + agreed to increase crude oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, with a lower increase rate compared to previous months. The organization is adhering to the policy of competing for market share, and the new round of production increase in October means starting to lift the 1.66 million barrels per day of agreed production cuts [7]. - The EU is preparing the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, targeting six Russian banks and energy companies, and expanding to payment systems, credit card networks, and cryptocurrency platforms [7]. - The IEA has raised the forecast for global oil supply growth this year and hinted at a possible surplus in 2026. Supply growth is much faster than demand growth [7]. - EIA weekly data shows a decline in US refined oil demand and an increase in inventories, indicating a peak in demand [8]. - The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the US has verified the weakness of the employment market, which will weaken residents' consumption ability and energy demand expectations, leading to a more pessimistic market expectation for US oil product demand [9]. 3.2 Polyester Sector 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil continuous decreased by 1.71% week - on - week, while the price of some polyester products such as PX and PTA increased slightly, and the price of EG decreased [11]. - The basis of some products such as PX decreased, while the basis of some products such as ethylene glycol increased [11]. 3.2.2 Supply - **PX**: The 800,000 - ton unit of Fuhai Chuang restarted, and the Asian PX capacity utilization rate increased slightly. Next week, some units will be under maintenance while Fuhai Chuang's unit will release production, so the weekly output of PX is expected to increase slightly [20]. - **PTA**: Some previously shut - down units restarted this week, and the supply increased. Next week, large - scale units such as Fuhai Chuang are planned to restart, and the supply is expected to continue to increase, with the supply - demand situation possibly turning to inventory accumulation [25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: New units have successfully conducted test runs, increasing the expected domestic supply pressure. The supply decreased slightly this week, and the port inventory decreased slightly. Next week, the port inventory may first accumulate and then decline [28]. 3.2.3 Demand - The polyester end had an average weekly operating rate of 87.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56 percentage points. Polyester filament continued to accumulate inventory this week [29][32]. - Terminal seasonal orders were generally average, and downstream demand had not significantly improved. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate remained stable, the number of orders from textile enterprises increased slightly, and the inventory of grey fabrics decreased slightly [36][38][39]. 3.3 Methanol Sector 3.3.1 Futures, Spot, and Downstream Prices - The futures price of MA2601 decreased by 1.49% week - on - week, and the basis increased by 29.29%. The price of methanol in Taicang decreased slightly, while the CFR price increased [44]. - Among the downstream products, the prices of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and MTBE increased, while the price of dimethyl ether remained unchanged [44]. 3.3.2 Cost and Profit - This week, due to the increase in the methanol spot price, the profits of the three major production processes all improved, with a week - on - week increase. The downstream profits mostly decreased slightly, but the MTO profit was still at a relatively high level in previous years, and the profits of acetic acid and MTBE increased for two consecutive weeks [49][50]. 3.3.3 Supply - As of September 11, the methanol unit capacity utilization rate was 84.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05 percentage points. China's methanol production was 1.9192 million tons, a decrease of 43,500 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.21%. This week, the number of shut - down units was greater than the number of restarted units. Next week, some units are planned to restart [53]. - As of September 10, China's methanol port inventory was 1.5503 million tons, an increase of 122,600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 8.59%. The port continued to significantly accumulate inventory, and the supply side was under continuous pressure, with goods flowing back to the inland. The inland inventory was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3% [59]. 3.3.4 Demand - Affected by the maintenance of the olefin unit of Qinghai Salt Lake, the olefin operating load decreased slightly this week. With profit restoration and the expectation of some olefin unit restarts, the olefin operating rate still has room to rise. The operating rates of traditional downstream industries fluctuated, with no obvious positive signs [60]. - The restart of Zhejiang Xingxing will provide some support for the demand in the coastal market and may promote port inventory reduction. The subsequent olefin procurement plans and the continuous high import volume need to be continuously monitored [60].

Report Title - "Stock Index and Gold Weekly Report" [1] Report Date - September 12, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In August 2025, China's import and export growth rates both declined, CPI turned negative again after two months, and PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, indicating weak domestic and foreign demand, weak consumer spending, and significant industrial deflation pressure. Future exports may face downward pressure. [4][42] - The policy of large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in has driven up prices and improved profits in related industries, but downstream enterprises still face large operating pressures due to weak terminal demand. [16][42] - The margin balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has reached a new high, and the central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment. [19] - In the US, CPI rose in August, new non - farm employment decreased for two consecutive months, and the unemployment rate reached a new high, strengthening the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. [27] - Shanghai's gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory have soared, indicating increased demand for physical gold delivery and a resurgence of bullish sentiment. [37] - In the short term, the stock index may face a callback risk, and gold may experience increased volatility. In the medium to long term, the stock index will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and gold may face a deep adjustment. [42][43] Summary by Directory Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - In August, China's imports increased by 1.3% year - on - year, exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year, both down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month. CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, reflecting weak domestic and foreign demand, weak consumer spending, and large industrial deflation pressure. [4] Stock Index Fundamental Data Enterprise Profit - The policy of large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in has driven up prices in related industries, but downstream enterprises still face large operating pressures due to weak terminal demand, and production costs are difficult to pass on to consumers. [16] Capital - The margin balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has exceeded 2.3 trillion yuan, reaching a new high. The central bank carried out 1264.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 196.1 billion yuan. [19] Gold Fundamental Data US Economic Indicators - In August, the US CPI rose from 2.7% to 2.9%, reaching a new high since February. New non - farm employment was 22,000, decreasing for two consecutive months, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.3%, reaching a new high since August last year, indicating a cooling labor market and strengthening the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. [27] Gold Inventory - Shanghai's gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory have soared, reflecting increased demand for physical gold delivery and a resurgence of bullish sentiment. [37] Strategy Recommendation Short - term - Due to the lack of significant improvement in corporate profits, the stock index may face a callback risk in the short term. As the Fed's September interest rate decision approaches, gold has entered a high - level oscillation after a rapid rise, and attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility. [43] Medium - to - Long - term - The stock index's valuation is dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth but supported by the rise in risk preference, and it will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium term. Gold may face a deep adjustment due to the digestion of positive factors. [43]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No mention of the industry investment rating is found in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market has complex supply - demand situations. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to have different trends, with alumina in a weak oscillation and Shanghai aluminum recommended to be bought on dips, waiting for demand fulfillment in the peak season. In the long - term, Shanghai aluminum is expected to rise with the arrival of the downstream consumption peak season [38][39]. - The new energy sector is weak this week. Lithium carbonate and polysilicon prices have declined. Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak oscillation in the short - term, and polysilicon is in an expected game situation with high inventory currently and potential supply reduction in the future [40]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The CU2510 futures contract rose from 80140 to 81060 (up 1.15%), and the Shanghai spot 1 copper average price increased from 79970 to 80970 (up 1.25%) [2]. - Aluminum: The AL2510 futures contract rose from 20695 to 21120 (up 2.05%), and the Shanghai spot A00 aluminum average price increased from 20650 to 21030 (up 1.84%) [2]. - Zinc: The ZN2510 futures contract rose from 22155 to 22305 (up 0.68%), and the Shanghai spot 0 zinc average price increased from 22040 to 22250 (up 0.95%) [2]. - Lead: The PB2510 futures contract rose from 16900 to 17040 (up 0.83%), and the 1 lead ingot average price increased from 16725 to 16775 (up 0.30%) [2]. - Nickel: The NI2510 futures contract rose from 121310 to 121980 (up 0.55%), and the 1 electrolytic nickel average price increased from 121700 to 122850 (up 0.94%) [2]. - Alumina: The AO2601 futures contract fell from 3006 to 2914 (down 3.06%), and the Foshan spot alumina price decreased from 3200 to 3140 (down 1.88%) [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The SI2511 futures contract fell from 8820 to 8745 (down 0.85%), and the 553 silicon average price increased from 9300 to 9400 (up 1.08%) [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The LC2511 futures contract fell from 74260 to 71160 (down 4.17%), and the battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased from 75400 to 72398 (down 3.98%) [2]. - Polysilicon: The PS2511 futures contract fell from 56735 to 53610 (down 5.51%), and the N - type polysilicon material price decreased from 51600 to 51550 (down 0.10%) [2]. 3.2 Metal Inventory Changes - Copper: As of September 12, SHFE copper inventory was 94,100 tons (+12,200 tons, +14.90% week - on - week), LME copper inventory was 153,900 tons (-4,100 tons, -2.59% week - on - week), and COMEX copper inventory was 309,800 tons (+7,100 tons, +2.35% week - on - week) [9][10]. - Zinc: As of September 12, LME zinc inventory was 50,500 tons (-3,500 tons, -6.48% week - on - week), and SHFE zinc inventory was 45,900 tons (+5,100 tons, +12.5% week - on - week) [19]. - Alumina: As of September 12, SHFE alumina inventory was 138,700 tons (+26,400 tons week - on - week) [26]. - Aluminum: As of September 12, LME aluminum inventory was 485,200 tons (+600 tons week - on - week), SHFE aluminum inventory was 128,500 tons (+4,421 tons week - on - week), and COMEX aluminum inventory was 8,912 metric tons (-599 metric tons week - on - week) [33][34]. 3.3 Metal Ore Processing Fees and Indexes - Copper Concentrate: As of September 11, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 40.50 dollars/ton, rising to 0.1 dollars/ton weekly, with a tight supply expectation at the mine end [13]. - Lithium Spodumene Concentrate: As of September 12, the CIF China index was 842 dollars/ton, down 29 dollars from September 5 [16]. - Zinc Concentrate: As of September 12, the main port TC of zinc concentrate was 95 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars from last week [20]. 3.4 Supply - Side Situations of Metals - Aluminum Raw Materials: The supply of bauxite has a multi - factor game. Domestic production has decreased, and imported bauxite arrivals have declined due to the rainy season in Guinea. However, high inventory and reduced profit margins of alumina limit the acceptance of high - priced bauxite. Short - term bauxite prices are expected to be in a strong oscillation [23]. - Alumina: The start - up rate has decreased slightly, and inventory has continued to increase. With an overall surplus, the inventory is still piling up [24][26]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The start - up rate remains high due to high profits, but future increments are limited by industrial red lines. The market has low available primary aluminum inventory [31]. 3.5 Demand - Side Situations of Metals - In August, automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. New energy vehicle production and sales also had significant year - on - year growth, with new energy vehicle sales accounting for 48.8% of total new vehicle sales [36]. - From January to July, housing new construction and completion areas decreased year - on - year. The cumulative power generation installed capacity increased year - on - year, with significant growth in wind power and photovoltaic. However, the new photovoltaic installation scale in July decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [37]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendations - Aluminum: Short - term, alumina is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and Shanghai aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips, waiting for demand fulfillment in the peak season. Long - term, Shanghai aluminum is expected to rise with the arrival of the downstream consumption peak season [38][39]. - New Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a weak oscillation in the short - term, and polysilicon is in an expected game situation with high inventory currently and potential supply reduction in the future [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed mixed trends this week, with palm oil and soybean oil prices falling and rapeseed oil prices rising. The overall inventory of the three major oils increased, and the fundamentals of different oils varied. The MPOB report on palm oil was neutral to bearish, causing the price center to shift downward. [4][34][36] - In the short - term, the center of palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9200 - 9600. In the medium - to - long - term, the weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with an expected fluctuation range of 9200 - 10000. [37][38] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From September 5 to September 12, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) decreased by 230 to 9296, a week - on - week decline of 2.41%, and the spot price decreased by 196 to 9354, a week - on - week decline of 2.05%. [4] - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) increased by 39 to 9857, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%, and the spot price increased by 98 to 10020, a week - on - week increase of 0.99%. [4] - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) decreased by 128 to 8322, a week - on - week decline of 1.51%, and the spot price decreased by 120 to 8408, a week - on - week decline of 1.41%. [4] Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of September 11, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 72 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), 127 yuan/ton (an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 24 yuan/ton (an increase of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. [10] - As of September 12, 2025, the YP spread was - 974 yuan/ton (an increase of 102 yuan/ton from the previous week). [10] Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of September 5, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 9.7 tons (a decrease of 0.7 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 61.93 tons (an increase of 0.92 tons from the previous week), and the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills was 125.13 tons (an increase of 1.25 tons from the previous week). The total inventory of the three major oils was 196.76 tons (an increase of 1.47 tons from the previous week). [13] Palm Oil Supply Side - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of August increased by 4.18% from the previous month to 220 tons. [18] - In June 2025, Indonesia's ending palm oil inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons. [18] Soybean Oil Supply Side - As of September 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 966.10 tons (an increase of 60.5 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 731.70 tons (an increase of 34.85 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 60% (a decrease of 1% from the previous week). [21] - As of September 11, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 600.40 yuan/ton (a decrease of 12.6 yuan/ton from the previous week). [21] Rapeseed Oil Supply Side - As of September 5, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 10 tons (unchanged from the previous week). [27] - As of September 11, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2284.80 yuan/ton (an increase of 0.8 yuan/ton from the previous week). [27] Demand Side - On September 11, 2025, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 3500 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 7000 tons. The POGO spread was 416.74 dollars/ton (a decrease of 11.5 dollars/ton from the previous week). [32] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil was 805 tons. [32] Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified, and the Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation period of Canadian rapeseed to March 9, 2026. [34] - Foreign: USDA's monthly report showed that the US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the estimated soybean planting area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the US soybean production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. [34] - Import and Crushing: The oil mill operating rate decreased by 1% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory increased. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remained at 10 tons, unchanged from the previous week. [34] - Inventory: As of September 5, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 9.7 tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 61.93 tons, and the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills increased to 125.13 tons. [34] - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 2.05%, the spot price of soybean oil decreased by 1.41%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil increased by 0.99%. [34] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The center of palm oil price is expected to fluctuate between 9200 - 9600 next week. [37] - Medium - to - long - term: The weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with an expected fluctuation range of 9200 - 10000. [38] - Next week's focus and risk warnings include the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency Malaysian palm oil data, and weather. [39]