三大油脂周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251128 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内三大油脂现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.11.21 | 2025.11.28 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅% | 现货指标 2025.11.21 | | 2025.11.28 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅% | | 棕榈油 | P2601 | 8550 | 8626 | 76 | 0.89 | 中国：现货价：棕榈油： 生意社 | 8532 | 8518 | -14 | -0.16 | | 菜油 | OI2601 | 9816 | 9757 | -59 | -0.60 | 中国：现货价：菜油： 生意社 | 10167 | 10145 | -22 | -0.21 | | 豆油 | Y2601 | 8190 | 8244 | 54 | 0.66 | 中国：现货价：豆油： 生意社 | 8392 | 8412 | 2 ...

有色金属周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251128 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内主要金属现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.11.21 | 2025.11.28 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | 现货指标 | 2025.11.21 | 2025.11.28 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2601 | 85660 | 87430 | 1770 | 2.07% | 平均价:1#铜:上海现货 | 85870 | 87340 | 1470 | 1.71% | | 铝 | AL2601 | 21340 | 21610 | 270 | 1.27% | 平均价:A00铝:上海现货 | 21370 | 21440 | 70 | 0.33% | | 锌 | ZN2601 | 22390 | 22425 | 35 | 0.16% | 平均价:0#锌:上海现货 | 22430 | 22370 ...

股指、黄金周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251128 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内外宏观经济数据 今年1-10月全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额59502.9亿元，同比增长1.9%，增速较 上月回落1.3个百分点。其中10月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降5.5%，时隔两个月再 次转负。 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 股指、黄金现货价格走势 IF 惠农保价稳产 IC IH AU 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 股指基本面数据 企业盈利 资金面 今年1-10月规模以上工业企业利润增速放缓，产成品存货同比回升，剔除去年同期低 基数效应的影响，企业盈利依旧偏弱。 黄金基本面数据 惠农保价稳产 无风险利率：持有成本 通胀水平 美联储官员意外释放鸽派信号，市场对12月降息的预期急剧升温。据CME"美联储观察" 工具显示，12月降息25个基点的概率上升至86.9%，10年期美债收益率小幅下行。 美国零售销售月率 就业情况 沪深两市融资余额小幅回落至24447.87亿元，央行本周共开展15118亿7天期逆回购和 1000 ...

能化板块周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251121 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 央视记者当地时间11月19日获悉，美国政府正与俄罗斯就结束俄乌冲突的框架协议接近达成"重大突破"，预计最迟本月底、甚至"最快本 周内"完成。据两名知情人士表示，美国已向乌克兰总统泽连斯基发出信号，要求乌方接受一项由美国起草的俄乌停战框架。该框架内容包 括乌克兰放弃部分领土并交出部分武器。据悉，美方将此方案视为结束,冲中突的核心基础，并要求乌克兰接受。 鲍玉虹 从业资讯证号：F03149670 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 聚酯板块数据周报 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 周四凌晨美联储公布十月货币政策会议纪要，大多数官员不支持12月进一步隆息，叠加美国劳工部不公布10月非农就业报告与11月合并发布， 削弱了美联储降息的数据依据，推动美元指数强势运行，以美元计价的原油价格持续面临下行压力。 周四晚间美国劳工部发布的9月非农就业数据显示，9月非农新增就业人口达到11.9万，明显高于市场预期，前两月就业人口被大幅下修3.3 万，数据发布后美联储隆息榔率只小幅升至35%，显示出在美国政府关门背景下就业市场仍展 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎 | 品种 | 合约 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | 现货价格 | 基差（未折算） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/21 | 变动 | 涨跌幅（%） | | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2601 | 3053 | 3057 | 4 | 0 | 3220 | 163 | | 热卷 | HC2601 | 3256 | 3270 | 14 | 0 | 3270 | 0 | | 铁矿石 | I2601 | 773 | 786 | 13 | 2 | 807 | 22 | | 焦炭 | J2601 | 1670 | 1615 | -55 | -3 | 1770 | 156 | | 焦煤 | JM2601 | 1192 | 1103 | -89 | -7 | 1530 | 427 | | 玻璃 | FG601 | 1032 | 987 | -45 | -4 | 1120 | 133 | | 纯碱 | SA601 | 1226 | 1170 | -56 | -5 | 126 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the oil mill's soybean crushing volume remains high, and the de - stocking pace is slow, so the soybean meal futures market will continue to be weak. The rapeseed meal inventory in oil mills and ports continues to decline, but the weakening aquaculture demand restricts the upward potential of the rapeseed meal futures market [40]. - In the medium - to - long - term, changes in trade relations are still the key driving factors for the supply side of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures and spot prices of major feed and aquaculture products in China have shown different trends. The futures prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, and live pigs have declined, while the futures price of eggs has increased. The spot prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and eggs have decreased, while the spot price of corn has increased slightly, and the spot price of live pigs has decreased slightly [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **Cost Side** - Weather: In the next 10 - 15 days, North America will be warm and humid, while key agricultural areas in South America, especially southern Brazil and Argentina, face drought risks, which may affect the growth of crops such as corn and soybeans [10]. - US Soybeans: The US soybean harvest progress is slower than in previous years. As of November 16, the US soybean harvest progress was 95%, behind the 98% in the same period in 2025 and the five - year average of 96% [10]. - Brazil: Brazil's soybean exports in November 2025 are expected to reach 4.71 million tons, 101% higher than in November 2025 [10]. - Argentina: As of November 20, the soybean planting rate in Argentina's 2025/26 season was 25%, up from 15% last week but lower than 36% in the same period in 2024 [10]. - **Supply** - Import: In October, China imported no soybeans from the US for the second consecutive month, but the total soybean imports reached a record high of 9.48 million tons. China imported 7.12 million tons from Brazil (a 28.8% year - on - year increase) and 1.57 million tons from Argentina (a 15.4% year - on - year increase). Since the beginning of 2025, China has imported 16.82 million tons of soybeans from the US, a 11.5% year - on - year increase [10]. - Pressing: The weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills decreased to 2.4234 million tons as of November 14, and the soybean pressing profit was - 80.05 yuan/ton as of November 20, a decrease of 39.04 yuan/ton from the previous week [25][26]. - **Demand** - Pressing: The operating rate of oil mills this week increased to 66%, and the soybean meal inventory is close to one million tons and still needs to be reduced [10]. - Transaction: On November 20, the total soybean meal transaction volume of major domestic oil mills was 285,200 tons, a decrease of 115,300 tons from the previous trading day [10]. - **Inventory** - Oil Mill Inventory: In the 46th week of 2025, the soybean inventory, soybean meal inventory, and unexecuted contracts of major domestic oil mills all decreased. The soybean inventory was 7.4771 million tons, a 1.87% decrease from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 992,900 tons, a 0.57% decrease from the previous week [10]. 3.3 Supply Side - Import - As of November 20, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 490.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars/ton from the previous week, and the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 500.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18]. 3.4 Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week of November 20, the soybean pressing profit was - 80.05 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39.04 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of November 14, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4234 million tons, a decrease of 248,500 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 60%, an increase of 7 percentage points from the previous week [25][26]. 3.5 Inventory Side - As of November 21, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.2379 million tons, a decrease of 60,200 tons from the previous week. As of November 14, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 954,500 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons from the previous week [29]. 3.6 Demand Side - As of November 14, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 76,900 tons, the same as the previous week [32]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Supply Side The report shows the historical data of rapeseed imports, rapeseed meal production, and expected rapeseed arrivals at domestic pressing plants [36]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory Side The report presents data on rapeseed meal's initial inventory, supply, demand,提货 volume, apparent consumption, and trading volume in China [38]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The soybean meal futures market will continue to be weak, and the upward potential of the rapeseed meal futures market will be restricted [40]. - Medium - to - long - term: Changes in trade relations are the key factors affecting the supply of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [41]. 3.10 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warnings The focus includes产区 weather, trade relations, and the arrival schedule of imported soybeans [42].

有色金属周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251121 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内主要金属现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.11.7 | 2025.11.14 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | 现货指标 | 2025.11.7 | 2025.11.14 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2601 | 86900 | 85660 | -1240 | -1.43% | 平均价:1#铜:上海现货 | 87070 | 85870 | -1200 | -1.38% | | 铝 | AL2601 | 21840 | 21340 | -500 | -2.29% | 平均价:A00铝:上海现货 | 21900 | 21370 | -530 | -2.42% | | 锌 | ZN2601 | 22465 | 22390 | -75 | -0.33% | 平均价:0#锌:上海现货 | 2248 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: High - frequency data is bearish, and the expectation of inventory accumulation increases, so palm oil will run weakly; Australian rapeseed will arrive at ports one after another, but it will take time for customs clearance and pressing, so rapeseed oil will run in a volatile manner; soybean oil mills maintain a high operating rate, with ample supply, and will run weakly due to the disturbance of US biodiesel policy [28]. - Medium - to long - term: After palm oil finds the bottom in a volatile manner, considering that the producing areas are about to enter the seasonal production - reduction cycle and the long - term support of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, the futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound; rapeseed oil needs to closely monitor the Sino - Canadian trade trend, which may determine the futures price trend; the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has been repaired, and considering that soybean oil consumption is still cost - effective, the cost center is expected to rise [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Domestic Three - major Oil Spot Price Trends - From November 14 to 21, 2025, the futures prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil decreased by 1.09%, 1.08%, and 0.80% respectively. The spot prices decreased by 0.16%, 1.43%, and 0.47% respectively [4]. 3.2 Three - major Oil Basis Changes - As of November 20, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 198 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week), 361 yuan/ton (an increase of 9 yuan/ton), and 30 yuan/ton (an increase of 72 yuan/ton) respectively. As of November 21, 2025, the YP price difference was - 360 yuan/ton (an increase of 28 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three - major Oil Inventory Trends - As of November 14, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 2.08 million tons (a decrease of 0.52 million tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills totaled 65.32 million tons (an increase of 5.59 million tons); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 114.85 million tons (a decrease of 0.87 million tons); the total inventory of the three - major oils was 182.25 million tons (an increase of 4.2 million tons) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis - **Palm Oil**: As of November 21, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8813 yuan/ton (a decrease of 152 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the gross profit against the market was - 79 yuan/ton (an increase of 171 yuan/ton). From November 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.32% month - on - month [13]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of November 14, 2025, the soybean inventory in national ports was 992.60 million tons (a decrease of 40.8 million tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 747.71 million tons (a decrease of 14.24 million tons), and the mill operating rate was 62% (an increase of 7% from the previous week). The soybean crushing profit was - 573.35 yuan/ton (a decrease of 61.85 yuan/ton) [16]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of November 14, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.25 million tons (a decrease of 0.25 million tons from the previous week). As of November 20, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2533.80 yuan/ton (a decrease of 159.4 yuan/ton) [19]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On November 20, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 1400 tons, the trading volume of first - class soybean oil was 12500 tons, and the POGO price difference was 345.24 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 7.5 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [25]. 3.6 Three - major Oil Fundamental Analysis - **Policy**: There have been many disturbances in the US biodiesel policy recently. There are rumors of more favorable blending volume and also negative news of delaying or reducing import biofuel subsidies. The US Department of Energy announced a restructuring on November 20, prioritizing oil and nuclear energy and replacing the renewable energy efficiency department. The market is also concerned about the progress of Sino - Canadian trade relations [26]. - **Foreign Factors**: The latest USDA supply - and - demand report lowered the 2025/26 soybean yield per acre by 0.5 bushels to 53 bushels per acre, and the soybean production was also lowered to 4.253 billion bushels, lower than market expectations. In addition, exports were unexpectedly lowered by 50 million bushels, about 1.36 million tons. From November 1 - 20, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 10.32% month - on - month, while exports decreased by 20.5% month - on - month, increasing the expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil [26]. - **Import and Pressing**: The operating rate of oil mills increased by 7% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.25 million tons, a decrease of 0.25 million tons from the previous week [26]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 2.08 million tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 65.32 million tons; the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills decreased to 114.85 million tons [26]. - **Spot**: This week, the spot prices of the three - major oils decreased in resonance. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 0.16%, rapeseed oil by 1.43%, and soybean oil by 0.47% [26].

股指、黄金周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251121 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内外宏观经济数据 今年1-10月房地产投资同比下降14.7%，降幅连续8个月扩大；基础设施投资同比下降 0.1%，为2020年9月以来首次转负；制造业投资同比增长2.7%，增速较上月放缓1.3个 百分点，创2021年2月以来新低。 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 IF 惠农保价稳产 IC 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 IH AU 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 股指、黄金现货价格走势 股指基本面数据 企业盈利 资金面 今年10月新增贷款和社融规模大幅回落，广义货币供应量M2同比增长8.2%，M1同比增 长6.2%，分别较上月回落0.2和1个百分点，二者之间的剪刀差再次走阔。 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 沪深两市融资余额小幅回落至24724..55亿元，央行本周共开展16760亿7天期逆回购 操作，实现净投放5540亿元。 利率 流动性 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 黄金基本面数据 惠农保价 ...

Report Overview - The report is a weekly data report on the energy and chemical sector, including the polyester and methanol segments, released by New Era Futures Research on November 7, 2025 [1][2][4][30] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, the PX supply pressure is not significant, the PTA supply is expected to tighten, and their盘面 performance is relatively strong, but the demand - side drive is insufficient, limiting the rebound space. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase slightly, and with rigid demand, it has insufficient rebound momentum and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, the demand drive is insufficient, and supply changes dominate the market rhythm. In the fourth quarter, the polyester sector shows a differentiated trend, with PX and PTA being relatively strong and ethylene glycol being under pressure. For methanol, in the short - term, the high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, MTO is continuously losing money, and the main demand support weakens, so it may fluctuate in the bottom range. In the long - term, the inflection point of port inventory is the core point, and if the medium - and long - term signals are positive, methanol has the basis for a stable rebound [28][47] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price (OSP) for Asian customers in December, indicating a cautious attitude towards the crude oil demand outlook. OPEC+ will maintain the production increase rhythm in December but suspend the increase plan in the first three months of 2026. The US sanctions on Russian oil companies have led to a significant reduction in Russia's crude oil exports to India. US commercial crude oil inventories increased due to a large increase in imports, while gasoline inventories continued to decline [5][6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 1.34% week - on - week, while naphtha spot prices increased by 0.54%. PX601 futures prices increased by 6.96%, and PX CFR in Taiwan increased by 1.19%. TA601 futures prices increased by 2.58%, and PTA spot benchmark prices increased by 0.22%. EG601 futures prices decreased by 2.68%, and ethylene glycol's East China mainstream price decreased by 4.03%. PF512 futures prices increased by 1.12%, and polyester staple fiber's East China mainstream price decreased by 0.55%. PR601 futures prices increased by 0.75%, and polyester bottle chip's East China mainstream price increased by 0.17% [9] 3.3 Supply - side Analysis 3.3.1 PX - Dalian Fujia's 70 - ton device restarted and ran at full capacity, and another 70 - ton device is planned to restart next week. As of November 7, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 89.03%, a 1.25% increase from last week, and the PX output was 74.67 tons, a 1.25% increase [13] 3.3.2 PTA - Dongying Weilian reduced its load, Yisheng Dahua increased its load after reduction, Dushan Energy's old 250 - ton device was under maintenance after the new 300 - ton device was put into production, and Xinjiang Zhongtai's 120 - ton device restarted. As of November 7, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 77.69%, a 0.69 - percentage - point decrease from last week, and the weekly output was 148.483 tons, a 3.45 - ton increase. PTA social inventory increased slightly. Under low processing fees, large PTA manufacturers have maintenance expectations, but the implementation needs attention [14] 3.3.3 Ethylene Glycol - Fujian United restarted, Sanjiang Chemical increased its load, and some devices were under maintenance. As of November 7, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 65.88%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase. Coal - based devices are planned to restart, and the domestic supply is expected to increase slightly. Port inventory increased, but the inventory accumulation rhythm may slow down [15][16] 3.3.4 Methanol - As of November 6, the methanol production start - up rate was 87.79%, a 1.18 - percentage - point increase, and the domestic output was 199.2 tons, a 1.37% increase. This week, the total restored production capacity was about 2.91 million tons/year, and the total lost production capacity was about 2 million tons/year. Next week, the planned restored production capacity is about 1.6 million tons/year, with no new maintenance plans [39][40] 3.4 Demand - side Analysis 3.4.1 Polyester - The weekly average start - up rate of the polyester end was 87.8%, a 0.26 - percentage - point increase. Polyester staple fiber and filament inventories decreased slightly. New device production was postponed, and large - scale maintenance was postponed. Next week, polyester device changes are limited, and production is expected to increase slightly. Weaving orders decreased, and procurement was mainly rigid [17][20] 3.4.2 Methanol - The MTO start - up rate continued to decline, and Shandong Hengtong entered maintenance. Traditional downstream industries entered the off - season, and the overall start - up rate decreased, with weak demand support [43] 3.5 Inventory Analysis 3.5.1 PTA - As of November 6, PTA factory inventory was available for 4.09 days (a 0.06 - day increase), polyester factory PTA inventory was 6.10 days (a 0.35 - day decrease), and PTA social inventory was about 316.08 tons (a 2.53 - ton increase) [14] 3.5.2 Ethylene Glycol - As of November 6, the East China port inventory was 56.4 tons, a 6.5 - ton increase from last Thursday and a 5.3 - ton increase from Monday [16] 3.5.3 Methanol - As of November 5, the port inventory was 151.71 tons, a 1.06 - ton increase, and the inland inventory was 38.64 tons, a 1.03 - ton increase. The port inventory increased slightly due to the unmet unloading expectations, and the inland inventory continued to increase due to high supply and reverse flow of port goods [46] 3.6 Strategy Recommendations 3.6.1 Polyester Sector - Short - term: PX supply pressure is not significant, PTA supply is expected to tighten, and the disk is relatively strong, but the demand - side drive is insufficient, and the rebound space is limited. Ethylene glycol may fluctuate at a low level. Long - term: The demand drive is insufficient, and the supply change dominates the market rhythm. PX and PTA are relatively strong, and ethylene glycol is under pressure [28] 3.6.2 Methanol - Short - term: The high - supply and high - inventory situation continues, MTO is continuously losing money, and methanol may fluctuate in the bottom range. Long - term: Focus on the port inventory inflection point and the import reduction caused by Iran's gas restriction. If the long - term signal is positive, methanol has the basis for a stable rebound [47] 3.7 Next Week's Concerns - For the polyester sector, concerns include the change in the Russia - Ukraine situation, macro - market sentiment, and the operation of upstream and downstream devices. For methanol, concerns include high - inventory pressure, the recovery of maintenance devices, and macro - market sentiment [29][48]