Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of palm oil has improved overall, with production decreasing and exports increasing in August in Malaysia. Indonesia's palm oil production and inventory data also show certain trends. The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified, and the overall situation of the three major oils is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and policies [27][28] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From August 8 to August 15, 2025, the futures prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil all declined. Palm oil futures fell by 2.88%, rapeseed oil by 1.02%, and soybean oil by 1.18%. The spot prices also decreased, with palm oil down 0.40%, rapeseed oil down 0.58%, and soybean oil down 0.94% [2] Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of August 28, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 76 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week), 117 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton), and 118 yuan/ton (up 68 yuan/ton) respectively. As of August 29, the YP spread was - 958 yuan/ton (up 176 yuan/ton from the previous week) [5] Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of August 22, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.5 tons (up 0.05 tons from the previous week), the palm oil mill commercial inventory was 58.21 tons (down 3.52 tons), the national soybean oil mill inventory was 118.60 tons (up 4.33 tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 187.31 tons (up 0.86 tons) [8] Palm Oil Supply Side - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons. In June 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons [11] Soybean Oil Supply Side - As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 889.80 tons (down 2.8 tons from the previous week), the major oil mill soybean inventory was 682.53 tons (up 2.13 tons), and the oil mill operating rate was 62% (unchanged from the previous week). As of August 29, the soybean crushing profit was - 586.00 yuan/ton (down 19.7 yuan/ton from the previous week) [17] Rapeseed Oil Supply Side - As of August 22, 2025, the oil mill rapeseed inventory was 15 tons (unchanged from the previous week), and the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2575.00 yuan/ton (up 291.6 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20] Demand Side - On August 28, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 2966 tons, and that of first - grade soybean oil was 10000 tons. The POGO spread was 450.99 dollars/ton (up 8 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [26] Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified. Foreign: USDA reported that the US soybean yield increased, the sown area decreased, and the production decreased; MPOB reported that Malaysia's palm oil inventory, production, and exports all changed in July. Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate was unchanged, and the soybean and rapeseed inventories were stable. Inventory: The rapeseed oil inventory increased, the palm oil inventory decreased, and the soybean oil inventory increased. Spot: The spot prices of the three major oils all decreased this week [27] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Palm oil fluctuated weakly at a high level this week, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 9200 - 9650. Medium - and long - term: Palm oil is currently in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart, and the expected fluctuation range is 9200 - 10000. The focus and risk warnings next week are the US biodiesel policy, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data, and weather [28][29][30]

有色金属周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20250822 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内主要金属现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.8.22 | 2025.8.29 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | 现货指标 | 2025.8.22 | 2025.8.29 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2510 | 78650 | 79410 | 760 | 0.97% | 平均价:1#铜:上海现货 | 78860 | 79350 | 490 | 0.62% | | 铝 | AL2510 | 20630 | 20740 | 110 | 0.53% | 平均价:A00铝:上海现货 | 20700 | 20720 | 20 | 0.10% | | 锌 | ZN2510 | 22275 | 22140 | -135 | -0.61% | 平均价:0#锌:上海现货 | 22210 | 22030 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, speculative demand has significantly declined due to market sentiment. Although some steel mills have received oral production - restriction notices, the supply of rebar is expected to be less affected. Rebar demand will be significantly suppressed, and short - term prices are under pressure. Iron ore demand has some resilience, but supply is growing faster than demand, so there is a risk of correction. The supply - demand fundamentals of float glass and soda ash are weakening [64][68]. - In the short term, the main contracts of the black series are oscillating weakly. It is recommended to conduct band trading. The main contracts of glass and soda ash lack upward drivers in the short term and are waiting for the start of the demand side [65][69]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Series Weekly Market Review - Rebar (RB2510): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3188 on August 15th to 3119 on August 22nd, a decrease of 69 or 2.16%. The spot price was 3280, and the basis was 161 [3]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2510): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3439 to 3361, a decrease of 78 or 2.27%. The spot price was 3400, and the basis was 39 [3]. - Iron ore (I2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 776 to 770, a decrease of 6 or 0.77%. The spot price was 778, and the basis was 8 [3]. - Coke (J2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1730 to 1679, a decrease of 51 or 2.95%. The spot price was 1620, and the basis was - 59 [3]. - Coking coal (JM2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1230 to 1162, a decrease of 68 or 5.53%. The spot price was 1350, and the basis was 188 [3]. - Glass (FG601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1211 to 1173, a decrease of 38 or 3.14%. The spot price was 1230, and the basis was 57 [3]. - Soda ash (SA601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1395 to 1326, a decrease of 69 or 4.95%. The spot price was 1315, and the basis was - 11 [3]. Rebar - **Profit**: On August 21st, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was 74 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton compared to August 14th [7]. - **Supply**: As of August 22nd, the blast - furnace operating rate was 83.36%, a decrease of 0.23 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 240.75 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons; the rebar output was 214.65 tons, a decrease of 5.8 tons [12]. - **Demand**: In the week of August 22nd, the apparent consumption of rebar was 194.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.86 tons. As of August 21st, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 93523 tons [16]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 22nd, the social inventory of rebar was 432.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.58 tons; the in - plant inventory was 174.53 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.27 tons [21]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: In the week of August 15th, the global iron - ore shipment volume was 3406.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 359.9 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2703.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 131.5 tons [26]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 22nd, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14444.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 62.63 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 9065.47 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70.93 tons [29]. - **Demand**: In the week of August 22nd, the daily average port - clearing volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 341.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.76 tons. As of August 21st, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 91.7 tons [34]. Float Glass - **Supply**: In the week of August 22nd, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 223, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1117025 tons, the same as last week. As of August 21st, the capacity utilization rate was 79.78%, and the operating rate was 75.34%, both the same as last week [39]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 22nd, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 6360.6 million weight - boxes, an increase of 18 million weight - boxes compared to August 15th; the available days of in - plant inventory were 27.2 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 days [43]. - **Demand**: As of July 31st, the order days of glass - deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15th [47]. Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of August 22nd, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.48%, an increase of 1.16 percentage points compared to last week; the output was 77.14 tons, an increase of 1.01 tons compared to last week [52]. - **Inventory**: As of August 22nd, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 191.08 tons, an increase of 1.7 tons compared to August 15th [57]. - **Sales - to - production Ratio**: As of August 22nd, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 97.8%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points compared to August 15th [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, it is recommended to focus on short - term trading for soybean meal and rapeseed meal. For soybean meal, pay attention to the results of crop inspections as there are rumors that US soybeans may enter China through state reserves. For rapeseed meal, focus on the changes in China - Australia and China - Canada trade flows due to restricted imports of Canadian rapeseed in the future [45]. - In the medium - to long - term, the global soybean supply is abundant, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The closing prices of most futures main contracts in the feed and livestock industry decreased last week. For example, the M2601 soybean meal contract closed at 3113 yuan on August 21, down 50 yuan from August 13, a decrease of 1.58%. The RM601 rapeseed meal contract closed at 2561 yuan, down 127 yuan, a decrease of 4.72%. The C2511 corn contract closed at 2166 yuan, down 113 yuan, a decrease of 4.96%. The LH2511 live pig contract closed at 13765 yuan, down 280 yuan, a decrease of 1.99%. The JD2510 egg contract closed at 3010 yuan, down 267 yuan, a decrease of 8.15% [4]. - The spot prices of some varieties remained unchanged, while others decreased. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 3020 yuan, unchanged from the previous week. The average price of rapeseed meal in China was 2580 yuan, down 70 yuan, a decrease of 2.64%. The price of second - grade national standard corn with 14.5% moisture at Bayuquan Port was 2310 yuan, unchanged. The average slaughter price of commercial pigs in Henan was 13.6 yuan, down 0.14 yuan, a decrease of 1.02%. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.19 yuan, up 0.12 yuan, an increase of 3.91% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost Side - Weather: From August 24 to 28, the temperature in the main soybean - producing states in the US was lower than normal, and precipitation was mostly close to or higher than the median [10]. - US Soybeans: On the last day of the Pro Farmer crop inspection, inspectors reported that the corn yield potential and soybean pod number in Iowa reached the highest level in at least 22 years. As of August 17, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, in line with market expectations and the previous week, and the same as the same period in 2024 [10]. - Brazil: The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in August 2025 would be 8.8 million tons, higher than the previous week's estimate of 8.15 million tons. If the forecast comes true, it will be a 10.3% increase from 7.98 million tons in August 2024, but lower than the 12 million tons in July this year. The total soybean exports in the first eight months of this year will reach 88.55 million tons [10]. - Argentina: The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture said that the pace of soybean sales in Argentina was basically stable last week. As of August 13, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 29.51 million tons of soybeans for the 2024/25 season, 820,000 tons more than the previous week, compared with 25.64 million tons in the same period in 2024 [10]. 3.2.2 Supply - Import: In July 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record 16.7 million tons. Imports from Brazil increased significantly, accounting for 89% of the total imports, reaching 10.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. Imports from the US were only 420,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. Imports from Argentina were 560,000 tons in July, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 670,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 104.7% [10]. 3.2.3 Demand - Pressing: As of the end of the 33rd week (August 16), the average operating rate of domestic oil mills was 64.64%, an increase of 2.08% from the previous week. The total soybean pressing volume of national oil mills was 2.4168 million tons, an increase of 77,900 tons from the previous week. The pressing volume of domestic soybeans was 10,500 tons, and that of imported soybeans was 2.4063 million tons [10]. - Transaction: The transaction volume of soybean meal continued to recover, but the transaction price declined slightly. On August 21, the transaction volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 149,950 tons, an increase of 38,450 tons from the previous day. The spot transaction volume was 45,950 tons, a decrease of 19,550 tons from the previous day. The basis transaction volume was 104,000 tons, an increase of 58,000 tons from the previous day. The average transaction price was 3085.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.22 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Oil Mill Inventory: The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicted on August 20 that the operating rate in August would remain at a high level, with the soybean pressing volume close to 10 million tons and the soybean meal output around 8 million tons, higher than the average of the past three years. The average monthly consumption in August was 7.7 million tons. However, due to the accelerated downstream pick - up speed, the inventory accumulation rhythm of oil mills had slowed down. It was expected that the commercial inventory of soybean meal in major national oil mills would rise to around 1.1 million tons in August, and the inventory pressure on oil mills was relatively high [10]. 3.3 Supply - side Analysis 3.3.1 Import - As of August 21, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 488.00 US dollars/ton. The CNF price of US West Coast soybeans was 457.00 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton from the previous week [15][18]. 3.3.2 Pressing - As of the week of August 21, the soybean pressing profit was 190.90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.80 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of August 15, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4227 million tons, an increase of 63,700 tons from the previous week. As of August 15, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 62%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous week [24]. 3.4 Inventory - side Analysis - As of August 21, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 6.8832 million tons, an increase of 50,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory was at a low level in the past five years. As of August 15, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 974,000 tons, an increase of 13,100 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills was at a medium level in the past five years [27]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - As of August 8, the average daily transaction volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 84,500 tons, a decrease of 416,200 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it was at a relatively low level in the past five years [30]. 3.6 Pig - side Supply and Demand - Not provided in the content 3.7 Pig - side Slaughter and Breeding Profit - Not provided in the content 3.8 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Focus on short - term trading for soybean meal and rapeseed meal. Pay attention to the results of crop inspections for soybean meal and the changes in China - Australia and China - Canada trade flows for rapeseed meal [45]. - Medium - to long - term: Due to the abundant global soybean supply, the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex is limited [46]. 3.9 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - Focus on the weather in producing areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [47].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Data Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Weiwei, with qualification number F0269806 and investment consulting number Z0002796 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Methanol prices in both futures and spot markets, as well as its downstream products, mostly declined this week. The production margins of various methanol production processes have weakened, but coal - and natural - gas - based methanol still have considerable profits. Downstream demand is in the off - season, but profits are gradually recovering with the decline in methanol prices. The supply side is expected to increase production as more devices are planned to resume operation in late August. The demand side shows a slight improvement in MTO开工率, while traditional downstream industries have narrow fluctuations in their开工 rates. The port and inland markets are diverging, with the port likely to continue accumulating inventory, and the inland remaining in a low - inventory stage [9][10][21]. Group 4: Price Trends - Futures: The price of MA2601 decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 2405 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%. The basis decreased by 23 yuan/ton to - 110 yuan/ton, a decline of 26.44% [4]. - Spot: The price of methanol in Taicang decreased by 18.60 yuan/ton to 2359.6 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.78%. The CFR price of methanol decreased by 6.67 dollars/ton to 260.33 dollars/ton, a decline of 2.50% [4]. - Downstream: The prices of formaldehyde in Shandong decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1050 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.19%. The price of glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 2190 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.54%. The price of dimethyl ether in Henan remained unchanged at 3400 yuan/ton. The price of MTBE in Shandong decreased by 46 yuan/ton to 5010 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.91% [4]. Group 5: Cost and Profit - Production Margins: Affected by the previous decline in methanol prices, the production margins of various methanol production processes have weakened, but coal - and natural - gas - based methanol still have considerable profits [9]. - Downstream Profits: The downstream is still in the off - season, with narrow profit fluctuations. As the methanol price declined this period, the profits of downstream enterprises are gradually recovering [10]. Group 6: Supply Side - Production: As of August 21, this week's methanol production was 1.8974 million tons, a 1.83% increase from last week. The capacity utilization rate was 83.91%, a 1.51 - percentage - point increase [13]. - Device Status: This week, devices such as Shanxi Lubao, Baoji Changqing, and Hualu Hengsheng resumed operation, with a total restored capacity of about 2.3 million tons. Devices such as Hebei Jinshi, Yunnan Jiehua, and Guizhou Chitianhua were under maintenance, with a total lost capacity of about 700,000 tons. In late August, devices such as Yunnan Jiehua and Inner Mongolia Yigao are planned to resume operation, with a total restored capacity of 1.14 million tons, and the next - period operating rate may continue to rise [13]. Group 7: Demand Side - MTO开工率: The MTO开工率 increased slightly by 1.46 percentage points [16]. - Traditional Downstream: Traditional downstream industries had many maintenance activities, and their operating rates mainly fluctuated within a narrow range [21]. Group 8: Inventory - Port Inventory: As of August 20, the port inventory was 1.076 million tons, a 5.3% increase from the previous period. With no restart plan for coastal olefin devices, the port may continue to accumulate inventory [20]. - Inland Inventory: The inland inventory was 295,500 tons, a 0.64% increase from the previous period, but it is still in a low - inventory stage. Due to continuous external procurement by local olefin enterprises in the inland, the port and inland markets continue to diverge [20]. Group 9: Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The supply and demand are loose, and it is more influenced by sentiment. Pay attention to the effective breakthrough of the neckline and the resumption progress of olefin devices next week [21]. - Medium - to - long - term: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at the port, and the fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the actual realization of the peak - season demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" [21]. - Next Week's Focus: The recovery of coastal olefin devices, coal price fluctuations, and macro - market sentiment [21]

聚酯板块周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20250822 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 据央视新闻客户端报道，当地时间21日，美国总统特朗普谈及俄罗斯与乌克兰问题时称"大约两周后就能知道结果"。他表示，两周后，美 国或将采取其他策略。PVM Oi Associates的分析师Tamas Varga表示，和谈的不确定性意味着对俄罗斯实施更严厉制裁的可能性再次出现。 俄罗斯第一副总理表示，俄罗斯持续向印度供应石油、煤炭及石油产品，并看到俄罗斯液化天然气的出口潜力。目前印度对俄罗斯原油的购 买并未因关税威胁而大幅下降。自俄乌冲突引发原油贸易流向重构以来，俄罗斯已超越中东产油国，成为印度最大的原油进口来源国，占其 进口总量的30%至40%。 3 当地时间8月6日周三，特朗普签署行政命令，对来自印度的商品加征25%的额外关税，以回应印继续"直接或间接进口俄罗斯石油"，追加的 25%关税将在命令签署21天后生效。美国对亚洲原油进口买家的制裁措施引发市场忧虑，若印度自俄原油采购渠道受限，可能明显推升相关油 品消费区域的能源成本。 4 EIA ...

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed a differentiated trend this week. Palm oil and rapeseed oil prices increased, while soybean oil prices decreased. The overall inventory of the three major oils increased slightly. The market is waiting for the US policy on biodiesel exemptions for small refiners, which may affect oil prices [4][10][29] - In the short term, palm oil is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9850 next week. In the long - term, the weekly line of palm oil is in the third wave of an uptrend, with the center of gravity likely to rise, and the expected fluctuation range is 9300 - 10100 [32][33] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From August 8 to August 15, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) rose from 9460 to 9592, with a weekly increase of 1.40%; the spot price rose from 9428 to 9570, with a weekly increase of 1.51% [4] - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) rose from 9757 to 9890, with a weekly increase of 1.36%; the spot price rose from 9877 to 9985, with a weekly increase of 1.10% [4] - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) fell from 8534 to 8458, with a weekly decrease of 0.89%; the spot price fell from 8608 to 8528, with a weekly decrease of 0.93% [4] Basis Changes of the Three Major Oils - As of August 21, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 74 yuan/ton (a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week), 116 yuan/ton (a decrease of 1 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 50 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [7] - As of August 22, 2025, the YP spread was - 1134 yuan/ton (a decrease of 208 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7] Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of August 15, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 10.45 tons (a decrease of 0.55 tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills totaled 61.73 tons (an increase of 1.75 tons from the previous week); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 114.27 tons (an increase of 0.5 tons from the previous week); the total inventory of the three major oils was 186.45 tons (an increase of 1.7 tons from the previous week) [10] Supply Side of Palm Oil - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons [16] - In May 2025, Indonesia's ending palm oil inventory decreased by 4.2% to 291.6 tons [16] Supply Side of Soybean Oil - As of August 15, 2025, the soybean inventory at national ports was 892.60 tons (a decrease of 1.2 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major national oil mills was 680.40 tons (a decrease of 30.16 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 62% (an increase of 2% from the previous week) [19] - As of August 22, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 566.30 yuan/ton (a decrease of 26.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19] Supply Side of Rapeseed Oil - As of August 15, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, the same as the previous week [22] - As of August 22, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2866.60 yuan/ton (a decrease of 94.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22] Demand Side - On August 21, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 400 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 12800 tons. The POGO spread was 442.99 dollars/ton (a decrease of 16.75 dollars/ton from the previous week) [28] - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [28] Fundamental Analysis of the Three Major Oils - Policy: The market is waiting for the US to announce the exemption policy for small refiners related to biodiesel [29] - Foreign factors: The USDA monthly report showed that the US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the estimated soybean planting area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the US soybean production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% from the previous month to 211 tons, the crude palm oil production in July increased by 7.09% from the previous month to 1.81 million tons, and the palm oil export volume in July increased by 3.82% month - on - month to 1.31 million tons [29] - Import and crushing: The operating rate of oil mills increased by 2% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 15 tons, the same as the previous week [29] - Inventory: As of August 15, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 10.45 tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 61.73 tons, and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 114.27 tons [29] - Spot: The spot prices of oils showed a differentiated trend this week. The spot price of palm oil increased by 1.51%, the spot price of soybean oil increased by 1.10%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.93% [29] Strategy Recommendation - Palm oil futures rose 1.40% this week. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 20 days of August increased by 0.30% month - on - month, and exports increased by 13 - 18%, with the export growth slowing down. Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% to 253 tons. The B50 plan is expected to be implemented, which will support future consumption in the producing areas. India has low inventory, and the pre - Diwali stocking period is expected to have significant import demand for oils, which still supports international palm oil prices. In the domestic market, the procurement of palm oil for September shipments is limited, and the demand has not improved significantly, with mainly rigid - demand procurement [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most non - ferrous metals showed fluctuations this week. For example, the price of lithium carbonate decreased, while that of some other metals like aluminum had mixed trends. The supply and demand situation in the non - ferrous metal market is complex, affected by factors such as production resumption, policy, and downstream consumption [2][45]. - The market sentiment and price trends of different non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors. For instance, the news of Jiangte Motor's lithium salt plant resuming production alleviated the short - term supply shortage panic in the lithium carbonate market, leading to price adjustments [45]. 3. Summarized by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - The prices of most metals showed fluctuations in the week from August 15th to August 22nd. Copper decreased by 0.51% in futures and 0.43% in spot; aluminum decreased by 0.58% in futures but increased by 0.78% in spot; zinc decreased by 1.13% in futures and 1.11% in spot; lead decreased by 0.44% in futures and 0.30% in spot; nickel decreased by 0.96% in futures and 0.78% in spot; alumina decreased by 2.09% in futures and remained unchanged in spot; industrial silicon decreased by 0.68% in futures and 1.04% in spot; lithium carbonate decreased by 9.14% in futures and increased by 4.885% in spot; polysilicon decreased by 2.53% in futures and increased by 4.26% in spot [2]. 3.2 Copper Inventory in Major Exchanges - As of August 15th, SHFE copper inventory was 86,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,400 tons (5.37%). As of August 22nd, LME copper inventory was 156,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons. As of August 21st, COMEX copper inventory was 271,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,800 tons (1.80%). After the tariff policy, the inventories in the three exchanges tend to be stable [10][15]. 3.3 Processing Fees of Metal Ores - As of August 21st, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 38.2 dollars/ton, with a slight weekly increase of 0.2 dollars/ton, and the tight supply expectation at the mine end still exists. As of August 15th, the main port TC of zinc concentrate was 75 dollars/ton, with a slight weekly increase of 5 dollars/ton [18][23]. 3.4 Lithium - related Market - The lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index soared this week. As of August 22nd, the latest quote was 934 dollars/ton, up 157 dollars from August 8th, remaining at a high level this year. This week, lithium carbonate first rose and then declined, with the main 2511 contract having a weekly decline of 9.14%. Jiangte Motor's lithium salt plant resuming production will directly increase domestic lithium carbonate supply, alleviating the short - term supply shortage panic [19][20][45]. 3.5 Aluminum - related Market - For aluminum, the supply of bauxite has less disturbance, and the price of imported bauxite is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term. The alumina supply has increased production and inventory. The electrolytic aluminum enterprises maintain a high - level operation, but the available primary aluminum in the market is limited. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to increase this week. The futures prices of alumina and Shanghai aluminum maintained a volatile trend this week [24][27][34]. 3.6 Downstream Demand of Non - ferrous Metals - In July, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles also increased year - on - year. From January to July, the new housing construction area decreased year - on - year, and the housing completion area also decreased. In June, the new photovoltaic installation volume decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [40][42][44]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendations - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, the price is volatile due to frequent news disturbances, and the position should not be too heavy. In the long term, the monthly output is still rising, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. For alumina and Shanghai aluminum, in the short term, alumina is in a weak volatile trend, and Shanghai aluminum is in a range - bound trend with a strategy of buying on dips. In the long term, when entering the downstream consumption peak season, if consumption recovers, Shanghai aluminum has upward momentum [45][46][49].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA供需 report was unexpectedly bullish, causing US soybeans to return above 1000 cents. Under the influence of anti - dumping measures on domestic rapeseed, the performance of double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) was differentiated, with rapeseed meal showing more volatility and soybean meal remaining relatively stable due to import cost support [35]. - Currently, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, and oil mills have high soybean meal inventories. Downstream feed enterprises maintain high - inventory rolling, resulting in weak short - term follow - up buying willingness and sluggish soybean meal transactions at oil mills [35]. - In the short term, influenced by the cooling sentiment in the rapeseed sector and news of customs inspections in some areas, short - term trading is recommended for soybean meal; rapeseed meal is more volatile, and short - term trading should be accompanied by risk prevention [36]. - In the long term, the global soybean supply is ample, limiting the sustained upward momentum of the soybean sector [37]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Prices**: As of August 14, the closing price of the main soybean meal futures contract (M2601) was 3157 yuan/ton, up 2.77% from August 6; the main rapeseed meal futures contract (RM509) was 2686 yuan/ton, down 2.15%; the main corn futures contract (C2511) was 2281 yuan/ton, up 0.97%; the main live hog futures contract (LH2511) was 13900 yuan/ton, down 0.79%; the main egg futures contract (JD2510) was 3189 yuan/ton, down 5.60% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On August 14, the spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 3000 yuan/ton, up 3.81% from August 6; the average price of rapeseed meal in China was 2600 yuan/ton, down 2.26%; the aggregated price of second - grade corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average daily slaughter price of commercial hogs in Henan was 13.76 yuan/kg, down 1.43%; the average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.07 yuan/jin, up 5.50% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - end**: In the next 6 - 10 days, most areas in the main US soybean - producing states will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and half of the areas will have precipitation close to the median. The USDA's August report showed that although the 2025/26 US soybean yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels to 53.6 bushels, the sown area decreased from 83.4 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the production decreased from 4.335 billion bushels to 4.292 billion bushels, reaching the sixth - highest in history. The USDA lowered the 2025/26 US soybean ending inventory to 290 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 351 million bushels and the July forecast of 310 million bushels, hitting a three - year low. In July, Brazil's soybean exports reached 12.25 million tons, a record high for the same period. From January to July, Brazil's cumulative exports of oil crops reached 77.2 million tons, the first time to exceed this level in the same period of previous years. As of August 6, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 28.83 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, 870,000 tons more than a week ago [7]. - **Supply - Import**: Affected by Brazil's strong exports and concerns about supply due to Sino - US trade uncertainties, China's soybean imports in July reached a record high for the same period for the third consecutive month. In July, China imported 11.67 million tons of soybeans, a 4.8% decrease from June but still the highest for the same period in history, an 18.5% increase from the same period in 2024. The total soybean imports in the first seven months of this year reached 61.04 million tons, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. The market expects soybean imports in August and September to remain above 10 million tons, with most coming from Brazil. However, China has not booked any US soybean cargoes for the fourth quarter, raising concerns about a potential supply shortage [7]. - **Demand - Pressing and Transaction**: As of the week ending August 8, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1775 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%. On August 14, the total soybean meal transaction volume was 73,700 tons, 2900 tons less than the previous day, and the spot transaction volume was 28,700 tons. The weekly average showed that the total soybean meal transaction volume was 511,980 tons, and the spot transaction volume was 70,920 tons. Currently, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, oil mills have high soybean meal inventories, and downstream feed enterprises maintain high - inventory rolling, resulting in weak short - term follow - up buying willingness and sluggish soybean meal transactions at oil mills [7]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending August 8, the soybean inventory was 7.1056 million tons, an 8.38% increase from the previous week and a 0.59% decrease from the same period in 2024; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0035 million tons, a 3.66% decrease from the previous week and a 31.74% decrease from the same period in 2024 [7]. 3.3 Supply - end - **Import**: As of August 14, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 497.00 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars/ton from the previous week; the CNF price of US West Coast soybeans was 454.00 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars/ton from the previous week [11][12]. - **Pressing**: As of the week ending August 14, the soybean crushing profit was 209.40 yuan/ton, up 56.50 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week ending August 8, the domestic oil mill's weekly soybean crushing volume was 2.359 million tons, up 129,500 tons from the previous week. As of August 8, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate was 60%, an increase of 3 percentage points from the previous week [15]. 3.4 Inventory - end - As of August 14, the imported soybean port inventory was 6.7355 million tons, a decrease of 108,000 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a near - five - year low. As of August 1, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 960,900 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the domestic mainstream oil mill's soybean meal inventory is at a near - five - year medium level [18]. 3.5 Demand - end - As of August 8, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal at domestic mainstream oil mills was 500,700 tons, an increase of 222,400 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a near - five - year high level [22]. 3.6 Pig - end No specific content was provided for analysis in the given text. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Due to the cooling sentiment in the rapeseed sector and news of customs inspections in some areas, short - term trading is recommended for soybean meal; rapeseed meal is more volatile, and short - term trading should be accompanied by risk prevention [36]. - Long - term: The global soybean supply is ample, limiting the sustained upward momentum of the soybean sector [37]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus includes the weather in production areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Mid - to Long - term**: The speculative sentiment in the black - series commodity market has significantly cooled this week, with a mainly oscillating and weakening trend. The capital availability rate of construction sites has slightly increased by 0.27 percentage points but decreased by 3.36 percentage points compared to the previous period. The real - estate sector recovers slowly, and the steel demand side remains under continuous pressure. Steel supply is expected to shrink, but the short - term fundamental improvement is limited. The daily average hot - metal output has slightly increased, while the overseas ore shipment volume and the arrival volume at China's main ports have decreased. Future steel mill production restrictions are expected to affect the iron ore demand side. For glass and soda ash, the float glass start - up rate and weekly output are flat compared to last week, with continuous inventory accumulation and a weak supply - demand fundamental. Soda ash supply remains high, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [69][73]. - **Short - term**: The main contracts of black - series commodities have shown an oscillating and weakening trend recently. Attention should be paid to the implementation of subsequent policies and real - estate data, and cautious and light - position operations are recommended. The main contracts of glass and soda ash have mainly oscillated within a range this week, and short - term band operations are recommended [70][74]. 3. Summary by Directory Black - series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | Closing Price on 2025/8/8 | Closing Price on 2025/8/15 | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2510 | 3213 | 3188 | - 25 | - 0.78 | 3320 | 132 | | Hot - rolled coil | HC2510 | 3428 | 3439 | 11 | 0.32 | 3460 | 21 | | Iron ore | I2601 | 774 | 776 | 2.5 | 0.32 | 784 | 8 | | Coke | J2601 | 1734 | 1730 | - 4.5 | - 0.26 | 1620 | - 110 | | Coking coal | JM2601 | 1227 | 1230 | 3.0 | 0.24 | 1350 | 120 | | Glass | FG601 | 1196 | 1211 | 15 | 1.25 | 1250 | 39 | | Soda ash | SA601 | 1332 | 1395 | 63 | 4.73 | 1326 | - 69 | [3] Rebar - **Blast Furnace Profit**: On August 14, the rebar blast furnace profit was reported at 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton compared to August 7 [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of August 15, the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons; the rebar output was 220.45 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons [15]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of August 15, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 1.8994 million tons, a decrease of 208,500 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 83,767 tons [20]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 4.1493 million tons, an increase of 264,500 tons compared to the previous week; the in - plant inventory was reported at 1.7226 million tons, an increase of 40,600 tons [25]. Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 8, the global shipment volume of iron ore was reported at 3.0467 million tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons compared to the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was reported at 2.5716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons [30]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 14.38157 million tons, an increase of 114,300 tons compared to the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was reported at 9.1364 million tons, an increase of 123,060 tons [33]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of August 15, the daily average ore - unloading volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 346,800 tons, an increase of 103,500 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the trading volume at main ports in China was reported at 130,200 tons [38]. Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 15, the number of operating float glass production lines was 223, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1,117,025 tons, the same as last week. As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was 79.78%, the same as last week; the start - up rate of float glass was 75.34%, the same as last week [43]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the in - plant inventory of float glass was reported at 63.426 million weight boxes, an increase of 1.579 million weight boxes compared to August 8; the available days of in - plant inventory were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days compared to the previous week [48]. - **Demand Side**: As of July 31, the order days of downstream glass deep - processing manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15 [52]. Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87.32%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points compared to last week; the output was 761,300 tons, an increase of 18,400 tons compared to last week [57]. - **In - plant Inventory**: As of August 15, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was reported at 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons compared to August 8 [62]. - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of August 15, the production and sales rate of soda ash was reported at 96.23%, an increase of 5.54 percentage points compared to August 1 [66].