中盛期货 能化板块周度报告 中盛期货 20260109 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 鲍玉虹 从业资格证号：F03149670 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 中盛期货 聚酯板块数据周报 中盛期货 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普8日再次就伊朗骚乱事件发出威胁，称如再有人员死亡，美国将对伊朗进行"严厉打击"。伊朗的原油出口星 在近年保持韧性，且紧邻霍尔木兹海峡，对全球能源运输咽喉的控制能力较强。一旦地缘冲突升级导致伊朗原油供应中断或霍尔木兹海峡航 运受阻，对全球原油市场的影响较大。 据Lloyds List Intellgence和另一海事安全消息来源周四发布的公告称，一艘驶往俄罗斯的油轮在黑海遭遇无人机袭击，促使其请求土耳 其海岸警卫队援助并改变航线。 3 1 2 中盛期货 聚酯板块期现货价格走势 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普日前称，将让美国大型石油公司前往委内瑞拉投资，维修该国石油基础设施并为美国"创造收益"。这一 表态进一步显露了美方染指委内瑞拉石油资源的企图。不过，美业内人士却普遍认为，目前美国石油企业在委内瑞拉的投资意愿相当低。 按当前披霸的最 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to repeated digestion of previous policy benefits and unremarkable improvement in corporate earnings, the stock index has a need for adjustment after continuous rise; with the upcoming adjustment of the benchmark commodity index weight and the upgrade of precious metal trading supervision, gold is in a high - level shock, and it is necessary to be vigilant against adjustments caused by the emergence of profit - taking selling pressure [35] - In the medium and long - term, the valuation of the stock index will still be dragged down by the decline in the corporate earnings growth rate at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, and the stock index maintains a wide - range shock idea in the medium term; the stimulating effect of the US tax - cut policy on the economy will gradually appear, the room for the Fed to cut interest rates further in the future is narrowing, and there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [35] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data - In December 2025, the official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 (previous value 49.2), returning to the expansion range after 8 months, with industrial production accelerating significantly and demand improving marginally. In December, CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year (previous value 0.7%), and the year - on - year decline of PPI was 0.9%, narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous month [6] 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data - The effect of the "anti - involution" policy is gradually emerging. Commodity prices such as new energy, non - ferrous metals, and coal have rebounded, and the year - on - year decline of PPI has narrowed, which helps to improve the profits of upstream raw material processing [12] - The margin trading balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 2603.143 billion yuan, hitting a new record high. The central bank carried out a total of 138.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net withdrawal of 1655 billion yuan [15] 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data - The number of new ADP jobs in the US in December was 41,000, lower than the expected 47,000. The number of JOLTs job openings in November dropped to 7.146 million, the lowest since February 2021, indicating that the US labor market is slowly recovering and concerns about weak employment have eased [20][21] 3.4 Domestic and International Gold Inventory Situation - Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory increased, and the inventory of COMEX gold in New York increased slightly, reflecting an increase in physical delivery demand [33] 3.5 Strategy Recommendation - In December 2025, the official manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, industrial production accelerated significantly, and demand improved marginally, but the downward pressure on external demand remained large, and the prosperity of small and medium - sized enterprises was still weak. CPI has risen for three consecutive months year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline of PPI has narrowed, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand and prices and a relief of downward pressure on industrial products [35] - In terms of corporate earnings, driven by the "anti - involution" and elimination of backward production capacity policies, the prices of commodities such as new energy and non - ferrous metals have risen, which helps to repair the profits of upstream raw material processing industries; however, the operating pressure of downstream enterprises is still large, some industries have over - capacity, and production costs are difficult to be passed on to end - consumers, and they are still in the stage of active inventory reduction [35] - The central bank's work conference in 2026 emphasized increasing the intensity of counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments and flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Recently, the policy side has continuously released positive signals, and the market's expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts at the beginning of the year has increased, which helps to improve risk appetite [35] - The military strike launched by the US against Venezuela during the New Year's Day holiday has caused turmoil in the international geopolitical situation. After the holiday, the rise in the gold price is mainly driven by risk - aversion sentiment. Recently, the market is worried that the annual weight adjustment of the commodity benchmark index may lead to passive selling of gold and silver, and some funds have taken profits in advance. In addition, the CME has continuously raised the performance margin for precious metals, which helps to suppress excessive speculation and reduce irrational fluctuations [35]

2026 年度中国期货市场投资报告 聚酯板块：原油低位下的供需博弈 聚酯产业链 内容提要： 张伟伟 商品分析师 从业资格证：F0269806 投资咨询证：Z0002792 TEL：0516-83831165 E-MAIL：zhangweiwei @neweraqh.com.cn 近期报告回顾 成本重心下移，供需支撑不 足，聚酯板块整体承压（季 报）202509 成本驱动博弈供需错配，关 注品种间结构性机会（半年 报）202507 缺乏趋势行情，把握结构性 机会（年报）202412 供需错配 聚酯板块走势分 化（年报）202312 投资有风险 理财请匹配 ◆ 原油市场仍处于"地缘风险托底"与"供需宽松压顶"的博弈之中。2026 年，原油价格运行重心趋于下移，整体维持低位震荡走势，预计 WTI 原油 波动区间 50-70 美元/桶，OPEC+产业政策及地缘局势将放大油价波动率。 ◆ 2026 年上半年，国内 PX 几无新装置投产，供应相对平稳；美国芳烃调油 需求有限，不过韩国产能缩减，进口货源有小幅减少预期；2025 年下半 年投产的多套 PTA 新装置带来一定需求增量，供需维持相对偏紧局面。下 半年尤其是四季度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the methanol market will present a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and moderately slowing demand." The price may stabilize and experience a phased rebound in the first half of the year but face pressure again in the second half. The market is expected to fluctuate widely throughout the year, and the upward space depends on unexpected improvements in demand or unexpected contractions in the supply side [2][73][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Market Review - The methanol market in 2025 showed a downward trend overall, with two price increases in June - July but lacking driving forces. High inventory led to the price hitting a three - year low [5]. - In Q1 2025, methanol prices oscillated weakly at a high level. Low imports due to Iranian device outages and late overseas device returns supported prices, while high domestic supply pushed prices down slowly [5]. - From April to May, methanol prices dropped significantly as Iranian devices resumed operation, increasing imports, and macro - weakness and falling crude oil prices also contributed to the decline [5]. - From June to July, there were two rebounds. The first was due to the Iranian conflict, and the second was supported by coal price increases. However, both rebounds were short - lived [7]. - From July onwards, high inventory continued to suppress prices. Only in late November did prices rebound slightly due to Iranian winter gas restrictions, but the upward space was limited [7][8]. Supply Analysis - Coal prices have been declining in recent years, leading to improved profitability of coal - to - methanol production. In 2025, coal - to - methanol production was profitable for most of the year, and it is expected to remain marginally profitable in 2026, which will encourage enterprises to maintain production [14][16]. - In 2025, the methanol industry had a high operating rate, with an annual average operating rate of 86.9%. High profitability drove high production, and it is expected to remain high in 2026 [17]. - In 2025, new methanol production capacity was about 990 million tons/year, and more capacity will be put into operation in 2026. However, most new capacity has downstream support, so the actual supply pressure may not be large [26]. - In 2025, inland inventory was low, with an average of about 351,400 tons as of December 12. In 2026, inland inventory is expected to remain low with seasonal fluctuations and low inventory accumulation pressure [30]. Import Analysis - In 2025, foreign operating rates fluctuated greatly, and monthly imports reached a new high in August. The import pattern was "less in the first half and more in the second half," which put continuous pressure on the domestic market. Iranian gas restrictions in late 2025 were less than expected, which contributed to the price decline [32][33]. - Global methanol production capacity growth has slowed down, and there is only one new device planned for 2026, with high uncertainty. Iran may maintain high exports, but there are also uncertainties in maintaining high - load operations [43]. - In 2025, port inventory showed a pattern of "first low and then high." As of December 12, the average port inventory was about 988,800 tons. In 2026, port inventory is expected to remain at a moderately high level, and the inflection point of inventory reduction depends on the duration and intensity of Iranian gas restrictions [50][52]. Demand Analysis - In 2025, the profitability of MTO improved, and the operating rate was stable, with an average operating rate of 86.75% as of December 12. In 2026, MTO capacity and production are expected to increase steadily, but profitability may be under pressure [54][61]. - In 2025, new MTO production capacity was about 236 million tons/year, and more capacity will be added in 2026. However, new capacity may squeeze industry profits, and attention should be paid to the operating rate fluctuations of external - procurement MTO devices [61]. - In 2025, acetic acid production capacity expanded significantly, but competition intensified, and profitability was under pressure. In 2026, capacity growth may slow down, but demand for methanol will remain stable [65]. - In 2025, formaldehyde was affected by the real - estate industry, with low profitability and an average operating rate of 43.76% as of December 12. It is expected to remain sluggish in 2026 [69][70]. - In 2025, MTBE exports were strong, with an average operating rate of 62.85% as of December 12 and a cumulative export volume of 3.6287 million tons from January to October. However, in 2026, the export momentum may weaken, and the overall demand will be moderately weak [71]. Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the domestic methanol supply is expected to remain loose, and imports may be similar to or slightly higher than in 2025. Port inventory will remain at a moderately high level [73]. - MTO will provide rigid support for methanol demand, but profitability may be under pressure. Traditional downstream demand is expected to be moderately weak [74]. - Strategies include seizing buying opportunities in Q1 based on import reductions and exploring structured opportunities such as spot - futures arbitrage [2][75].

2026 年度中国期货市场投资报告 海外流动性风险尚未解除，新一轮量化宽松有望重启 宏观经济/资产配置 内容提要： 程 伟 宏观分析师 从业资格证：F3012252 投资咨询证：Z0012892 TEL：0516-83831160 E-MAIL：chengwei @neweraqh.com.cn 近期报告回顾： 美联储降息周期重启，全球 经济及大类资产展望（季 报）20250930 全球贸易摩擦及地缘局势 缓和背景下，大类资产配置 （半年报）20250630 国际环境复杂多变，超常规 政 策 依 然 可 期 （ 年 报 ） 20250101 投资有风险 理财请匹配 进入 2026 年，美国减税政策对经济的刺激作用将开始显现，关税政策对物价的影 响可能在下半年消退，美联储进一步降息的门槛明显升高，利率点阵图维持对年 内降息一次的预测；欧元区经济复苏乏力，通胀稳定在 2%的目标附近，欧洲央行 货币政策在进行 8 次降息后进入观察期；日本经济保持温和复苏，央行维持缓慢 加息的节奏，逐步实现利率政策正常化，可能引发海外日元套利资金回流，加剧 金融市场波动。 中央经济工作会议要求继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财 ...

2026 年度中国期货市场投资报告 铜：需求结构重塑 沪铜步入新纪元 有色金属/铜 内容提要： ◆ 2025 年铜市在"政策扰动+供应紧缩"双重驱动下走出历史级行情。年初 政策预期升温推升价格；二季度关税冲击与矿端收紧博弈，价格深跌反弹； 三季度高位震荡，事件与政策交织；四季度宏观压制缓和、供应焦虑加剧， 推动铜价强势突破，沪铜主力合约年末突破 9.4 万元/吨，伦铜触及 1.16 万 美元/吨，双双创历史新高。 ◆ 宏观层面，美联储全年降息三次，但进程分歧明显，年末定调"鹰派落 地"，2026 年降息节奏预计缓慢且反复。国内"十五五"规划开局，政策托 底明确，高质量发展主线为铜需求提供结构性支撑。中美贸易政策仍是重要 变量，关税预期间歇性扰动市场情绪与贸易流向。 ◆ 供给端进入紧平衡阶段。全球铜矿产量增速仅约 1%，新增项目贡献不 足，地缘与运营风险持续侵蚀供应弹性。铜精矿 TC/RC 深陷负值并进一步下 探，冶炼行业盈利模式崩塌，步入"负利润"生产常态。2026 年全球精炼铜 产量增速或转为负增长，标志产能扩张周期迎来强制性调整。 ◆ 需求端结构性分化延续。新兴领域仍是核心动能，新能源汽车渗透率突破 53 ...

2026 年度中国期货市场投资报告 铝：宏观与基本面共振下的震荡上行 有色金属/铝 内容提要： 周肖肖 从业资格证：F03147504 投资咨询证：Z0022770 TEL：0516-83831160 E-MAIL： zhouxiaoxiao@neweraqh.c om.cn 投资有风险理财请匹配 ◆ 原料层面，铝土矿供应呈现结构性转变，国内复产带动产量稳步增长， 政策推动下 2026-2027 年复合增速有望达 2.5%；海外依赖度高达 77%， 几内亚为核心增量来源，但资源民族主义、基础设施约束及地缘风险推 升长期成本中枢，2026 年 CIF 价格或在 60-70 美元/吨波动，短期库存高 位支撑供应宽松。 ◆ 供给层面，氧化铝供应过剩格局难改，2025 年新增产能集中释放导致库 存高企，2026 年仍有 1440 万吨国内新投产能及 300 万吨海外产能落地， 过剩压力加剧；但"反内卷"政策及产能天花板讨论升温，若落实落后 产能退出，市场有望趋向平衡。电解铝国内逼近 4500 万吨产能红线，供 应增量受限，海外印尼等地区成为增量主力，但建设周期长、欧美电力 问题或引发意外减停产，全球整体呈弱增长供应格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose. The price of US soybeans is still restricted by the global supply, while Brazil's soybean production is at a record - high level and Argentina's supply is sufficient. The implementation of the soybean purchase agreement will be a key factor affecting US soybean exports and price structure. The La Niña phenomenon may affect South American yields, and weather changes need to be monitored [2][77]. - China's soybean imports are expected to reach a new high in 2026, with a "low - first - then - high" supply rhythm. The soybean meal market is expected to continue the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the upward price space is limited [2][77]. - The pig production capacity is slowly being reduced. In the first half of 2026, the supply pressure of live pigs remains high, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. The speed of production capacity reduction will be the key to the pig price trend in the second half of the year [2][78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **2025 Bean Market**: The 2025 bean market was mainly affected by trade relations, domestic soybean arrival rhythm, US soybean producing area weather and export expectations. The prices of domestic and foreign markets showed significant differentiation in March, and the price of US soybeans rebounded at the end of October, driving up the domestic soybean meal price [4]. - **Q1**: The domestic and foreign markets showed an initial differentiation, with the domestic market being stronger. The USDA report was bullish at the beginning of the year, and the price of US soybeans rebounded. The domestic soybean meal price was supported by the pre - Spring Festival stocking demand. The domestic and foreign markets began to diverge at the end of March [6]. - **Q2**: The supply pressure became prominent, and the price was under pressure. The domestic supply pressure increased significantly after May, and the soybean meal price lacked upward momentum. The US soybean market was supported by weather speculation and other factors [6]. - **Q3**: The US soybeans fluctuated in a range, and the domestic market was driven by costs. The price of US soybeans fell below 1000 cents in July and rebounded in August. The domestic soybean meal price was slightly boosted by import costs [6]. - **Q4**: Driven by trade sentiment, the price bottomed out and rebounded. The improvement of Sino - US relations significantly boosted the export expectations of US soybeans, driving up the domestic soybean meal price [7]. - **2025 Pig Market**: The 2025 pig market was affected by factors such as over - capacity, policy expectations, second - fattening sentiment and slaughter rhythm, showing a pattern of fluctuating downward and weak rebound [8][10]. - **Q1**: The demand was strong first and then weak, and the pig price fluctuated weakly. The pig price was relatively strong before the Spring Festival and then fell. The second - fattening and barring sentiment led to a rebound in the pig price in late February [11]. - **Q2**: The policy guidance began to appear, and the price first rose and then fell. The pig price rebounded in April and then fell in May. The second - fattening replenishment enthusiasm increased in June, and the pig price stopped falling and stabilized [11]. - **Q3**: The supply - demand imbalance intensified, and the spot and futures markets diverged. The pig price soared in July due to supply reduction and policy factors, and then fluctuated and fell in August. The futures market moved down in September [12]. - **Q4**: After the National Day, the demand entered the off - season, and the pig price fell sharply and then rebounded slightly. The futures market was under pressure and fluctuated at a low level [12]. 2. International Soybean Market Supply Analysis - **USDA Report**: The global soybean supply continues to be in a loose pattern. In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean production is estimated to be 423 million tons, with the ending inventory increasing by 4 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [16]. - **US**: The 2025/26 US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio is 6.74%, and the supply - demand fundamentals have been tightening in recent years. The short - term price has a bottom support, but the upward space is limited by the global supply [17][18]. - **South America**: The production data of South American soybeans remains unchanged in December. Brazil's production is expected to be 175 million tons, and Argentina's is 48.5 million tons. The overall supply remains loose, but South American weather is still a key concern [19]. - **Brazil**: The soybean sowing is coming to an end, and the production is expected to reach a record high. Multiple institutions predict that the 2025/26 production will be between 175 - 178 million tons. In 2025, the export volume reached a record high, and it is expected to continue to rise in 2026. The La Niña phenomenon may pose a threat to the yield [20][21]. - **Argentina**: The sowing progress is accelerating. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects the 2025/26 production to be 48.5 million tons. The export tax has been reduced, and the export is expected to reach a six - year high [23][24]. - **US**: The soybean harvest is basically over, and the production is at a historical high. The weekly export volume has decreased month - on - month, but the cumulative year - on - year increase has continued to expand. The short - term export demand is still strong. The medium - and long - term export situation needs to pay attention to the impact of trade relations on trade flows. The soybean crushing volume in October set a new record, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the short term [27][28]. - **Trade Relations**: The Sino - US trade relations have entered a new stage of "transaction - based management". The stable trade of soybeans has become the balance of bilateral relations, but the structural contradictions have not been resolved. In 2026, trade relations are no longer the main trading line, but short - term disturbances still exist [31][34]. - **La Niña Disturbance**: The probability of a weak La Niña phenomenon in the next three months is 55%. The main impact is on South America, with the risk of reduced production in Argentina being the greatest. The actual weather conditions in South America and the intensity and duration of La Niña are the focus of the market [35][36]. 3. Domestic Soybean Market Supply - Demand Analysis - **Soybean Imports**: In 2025, China's soybean imports are expected to exceed 110 million tons for the first time, showing a "stable - first - then - high" pattern. In 2026, imports are expected to continue to grow, with a "low - first - then - high" rhythm, and the import value growth rate may continue to be lower than the import volume growth rate. The import scale of US soybeans depends on Sino - US trade relations [40][42]. - **Soybean Crushing**: In 2025, the national soybean crushing volume reached a historical high, showing a "low - first - then - high" pattern. The crushing profit showed a "high - first - then - low" and fluctuating downward trend. In 2026, the crushing industry is expected to continue to operate at a high level, but the growth rate will slow down, with a "low - first - then - high" seasonal rhythm [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: In 2025, the soybean meal inventory showed a "tight - first - then - loose" pattern. In 2026, if the arrival is uniform, the soybean meal supply will be slightly looser than in 2025. The inventory may bottom out in March - April and then gradually recover [46]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the trading volume of soybean meal fluctuated greatly. The overall demand for the breeding industry is stable, and the proportion of soybean meal added in feed continues to decline. In 2026, the demand for soybean meal will show the characteristics of "stable total demand and decreasing addition ratio", and the demand growth rate is expected to be lower than the feed production growth rate [48][52]. 4. Pig Market Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: - **Price Decline**: Since 2025, the domestic pig price has been in a downward trend, and the prices of binary sows and piglets have also declined to varying degrees [56]. - **Capacity Regulation**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has strengthened the regulation of pig production capacity, and listed companies in the pig - breeding industry have actively responded. As of October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows has declined to 39.9 million, and the production capacity reduction has accelerated [57][60]. - **Low Import Willingness**: The domestic pork supply is sufficient, and the import willingness of downstream purchasers and importers is weak. The pork import volume in October 2025 reached the lowest level of the year [66]. - **Profit Loss**: In 2025, the pig - breeding profit changed from profit to loss. In the first half of 2026, the pig supply is expected to be high, and the profit may continue to be under pressure. If the production capacity is significantly reduced in the second half of the year, the price and profit may recover [68]. - **Weakening of Second - Fattening Impact**: In the second half of 2025, policies restricted second - fattening, and leading enterprises responded actively. The influence of second - fattening on pig prices has weakened significantly, and the pig price trend is expected to be smoother in 2026 [69][72]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the pig demand showed typical seasonal characteristics. In the second half of the year, the terminal consumption recovered strongly, but the upward space of pig prices was restricted by the supply. In 2026, the pig market will continue the complex supply - demand game, and the short - term price may face a callback risk, while the medium - and long - term consumption growth space is limited [74][75]. 5. Summary and Outlook - **Soybean Meal**: With a loose global supply and accumulating domestic inventory, the overall upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to marginal variables such as South American weather speculation and the implementation of the Sino - US procurement agreement [77][78]. - **Pigs**: In the first half of the year, the supply pressure remains high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention can be paid to the rebound opportunities brought by the seasonal consumption recovery, and the process of production capacity reduction and the effect of policy guidance should be closely monitored [78].

2026 年度中国期货市场投资报告 穿越生柴、气候、贸易三重扰动，聚焦结构性机遇 油脂油料 内容提要： 风险点：中美、中加贸易关系，生柴政策，天气风险 王 晨 农产品分析师 从业资格证：F3039376 投资咨询证：Z0014902 TEL：0516-83831160 E-MAIL： wangchen@neweraqh.com.cn 油粕：天气、政策、经贸关 系共振：三大油脂的分化与 机遇 2025-9-24 投资有风险 理财请匹配 1 ◆ 豆系方面，2025/26 年度全球大豆供需维持宽松格局，本年度全球大豆总产量 4.22 亿吨，库存消费比维持在 20%以上。分国别来看，美国大豆种植面积下滑，供应端 面临结构性收缩；巴西大豆供应充足，产量或再创新高，2025/26 年度巴西大豆产 量或将创历史最高记录，达到 1.75 亿吨，较上一年度增加 450 万吨，增幅 2.6%； 阿根廷大豆供应面临拉尼娜天气影响，对单产构成下行风险。由于贸易关系的不 确定性，预计 2025/26 年度美国大豆价格高度依赖于中国的采购情况。 ◆ 菜系方面，2025/26 年度全球菜籽产量同比增加，总产量达 9227.3 万吨，较上一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the black industry chain was under pressure due to the pattern of "weak supply and demand", with the price center further moving down. In 2026, the pattern of "decreasing supply and weak demand" for steel is expected to continue, but the supply - demand gap may narrow marginally under policy guidance. The iron ore market is expected to enter a new stage of "continuous supply expansion and differentiated demand structure" [1][78][80]. - The "anti - involution" policy and supply - side structural optimization continued to exert force in 2025, accelerating supply contraction. In 2026, the policy direction of "controlling the total amount and optimizing the structure" remains unchanged for steel supply [1][78][80]. - The demand side shows significant differentiation and weakness. Real estate investment continued to decline, infrastructure investment growth slowed down significantly, and although steel exports provided some resilience, they were difficult to fully offset the decline in domestic demand [1][78]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review: Weak Supply and Demand, Oscillating Downward - In 2025, black - series commodities continued the trend of oversupply and weak oscillation, with coking coal falling 5.94% and coke dropping 12.67%, iron ore's decline narrowing to 2.12%, and rebar falling 5.51%. The overall trend can be divided into four stages: oscillating upward from early January to late February, moving down from early March to late May, slowly rebounding from early June to early August, and oscillating downward from early August onwards [3][4]. 3.2 Steel Supply: Environmental Restrictions, Continuous Decline 3.2.1 Global Supply: Structurally Differentiated Economic Recovery, Production Expected to Continue Contracting - In the first 10 months of 2025, global crude steel production decreased year - on - year. China's crude steel production declined, while India's increased significantly, and the United States, Turkey and other countries also showed an upward trend. In 2026, global crude steel production is expected to continue a slight downward trend [10]. - In 2026, China's crude steel supply is expected to remain within 1 billion tons. India is expected to maintain an increasing trend, and the production of countries like Turkey is expected to continue growing, but it is difficult to fully make up for the reduction in China's production [1][13]. 3.2.2 Domestic Supply: Continuous Reduction due to Environmental Restrictions - Since 2021, China has implemented policies to control steel production capacity. In 2025, relevant policies further tightened the control of new production capacity. From January to October 2025, China's crude steel production was 817.41 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.56%. It is expected that the annual production in 2025 will be in the range of 970 - 980 million tons, a decrease of about 2.5% - 3.5% compared with 2024 [16]. - In 2026, under the pressure of macro - policies and weak demand, China's crude steel production is expected to continue to contract [20]. 3.3 Steel Demand: Real Estate Continues to Weaken, Infrastructure Investment Growth Slows Down 3.3.1 Limited Support from Real Estate Policies, Difficult to Change the Weak Reality - In 2025, China introduced a series of real estate support policies, but the real estate market was still in a deep - adjustment period. From January to October, real estate development investment decreased by 14.77%, new housing construction area decreased by 19.87%, and the completion area decreased by 16.99%. In 2026, the real estate market will continue to be under pressure [25][30][32]. 3.3.2 Steel Exports Reach a New High in Total, but Structural Contradictions are Prominent - In 2025, China's steel exports maintained a high level in quantity, but the average export price continued to decline, and the product structure was continuously optimized. The exports to "Belt and Road" countries showed strong growth. Indirect exports of electromechanical products, automobiles (especially new - energy vehicles) were relatively optimistic, while home - appliance exports showed a downward trend [34][36][40]. 3.3.3 Investment: Manufacturing Remains Stable - In the first 10 months of 2025, China's fixed - asset investment was under pressure, but manufacturing investment remained resilient. In 2026, the manufacturing PMI is expected to improve marginally. Infrastructure investment growth slowed down in 2025, and in 2026, infrastructure construction investment will continue to follow the active fiscal policy orientation [42][46][53]. 3.4 Iron Ore: Loose Supply, Weakening Demand 3.4.1 Supply: Loose Overseas Ore Pattern, Limited Increment of Domestic Ore - In 2025, the production of the four major iron - ore mines increased slightly in the first three quarters. It is estimated that the annual production in 2025 will increase by more than 4% compared with 2024. The Simandou project started shipping, which will have a profound impact on the market pattern. In 2026, Vale and Rio Tinto plan to expand production capacity [57][61][62]. - In 2025, China's iron - ore production decreased year - on - year. From January to November, the import volume increased by 1.4%, and the port inventory reached a high level. In 2026, domestic production is expected to decline slightly, and the import dependence will remain high [69][71][72]. 3.4.2 Demand: Weak Domestic Demand, Weakening Export Support - In 2025, domestic demand for iron ore was weak, and the direct export growth of iron ore slowed down. In 2026, China's iron - ore demand is expected to continue the pattern of structural differentiation, with the overall pig - iron output slightly falling and steel exports being the core support [75]. - In 2026, the iron - ore market will enter a new stage of long - term supply relaxation. The price is expected to be under long - term downward pressure, and the market trading logic will shift from "quantity increase" to the game of "ore quality" and "production cost" [76]. 3.5 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the black industry chain was under pressure, with supply contracting and demand weakening. The iron - ore market shifted from "tight balance" to "loose" [78][79]. - In 2026, the rebar price is expected to show an "M" - shaped oscillation, with the price center in the range of 3000 - 3500 yuan/ton. The iron - ore import price center is expected to be maintained in the range of 90 - 100 US dollars/ton [80][81].