1. Report General Information - Report title: Black Series Weekly Report [2] - Report date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Author: Shi Lei, Research Assistant Shi Zhuoran [2] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Report Core Views Mid - to - Long - Term - For rebar and iron ore, this week, the market sentiment remained weak at the beginning and middle of the week, with the rebar main contract stabilizing and rebounding on Friday. After the military parade on Wednesday, the impact of production restrictions was coming to an end, and the expectation of upstream and downstream resumption of production increased. The supply and demand of rebar weakened simultaneously this week, and the contraction of steel mill profits formed a negative feedback. Attention should be paid to the recovery of peak - season demand. The global iron ore shipments increased significantly this period, and the daily average hot metal output reached a new low in the past six months. The iron ore futures price was under pressure due to the situation of strong supply and weak demand [65]. - For float glass, the float glass start - up rate increased month - on - month, the weekly output remained stable, and the in - factory inventory accumulated, with cautious market sentiment. For soda ash, the in - factory inventory continued to decline, downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, the improvement of the supply - demand fundamentals was limited, and the main contract fluctuated weakly and steadily [69]. Short - Term - For the black series, recently, the main contracts of the black series mainly oscillated within a range. Attention should be paid to the start of demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [66]. - For glass and soda ash, the fundamentals improved limitedly this week, and the market continued to consolidate at the bottom [70]. 4. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Series One - Week Market Review | Variety | Futures Closing Price Change | Futures Closing Price Change Rate | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Rebar (RB2601) | - 17.0 | - 1% | 3240.0 | 97.0 | | Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601) | - 6.0 | - 0.2% | 3380.0 | 40.0 | | Iron Ore (I2601) | 2.0 | 0.3% | 790.0 | 0.5 | | Coke (J2601) | 3.5 | 0.2% | 1670.0 | 23.5 | | Coking Coal (JM2601) | 7.5 | 0.7% | 1350.0 | 191.5 | | Glass (FG601) | 7.0 | 0.6% | 1240.0 | 51.0 | | Soda Ash (SA601) | 6.0 | 0.5% | 1283.8 | - 18.3 | [3] Rebar - **Profit**: On September 4, the rebar blast furnace profit was reported at 1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to August 28 [7]. - **Supply**: As of September 5, the blast furnace start - up rate was 80.4%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 228.84 tons, a decrease of 11.29 tons; the rebar output was 218.68 tons, a decrease of 1.88 tons [12]. - **Demand**: In the week of September 5, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 202.07 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons month - on - month; as of September 4, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 101,009 tons [17]. - **Inventory**: In the week of September 5, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 468.66 tons, an increase of 14.89 tons month - on - month; the in - factory inventory was reported at 171.34 tons, an increase of 1.72 tons month - on - month [22]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: In the week of August 29, the global iron ore shipments were reported at 3556.8 tons, an increase of 241 tons month - on - month; the arrival volume at 47 ports in the country was reported at 2645 tons, an increase of 182.7 tons month - on - month [27]. - **Inventory**: In the week of September 5, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was reported at 14425.72 tons, an increase of 37.7 tons month - on - month; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was reported at 8939.87 tons, a decrease of 67.32 tons month - on - month [30]. - **Demand**: In the week of September 5, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was reported at 330.33 tons, a decrease of 3.81 tons month - on - month; as of September 4, the trading volume at major ports in China was reported at 90.5 tons [35]. Float Glass - **Supply**: In the week of September 5, the number of float glass production lines in operation was reported at 225, an increase of 1 compared to the previous week; the weekly output was reported at 1117025 tons, the same as the previous week; as of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was reported at 79.78%, the same as the previous week; the start - up rate of float glass was reported at 76.01%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points month - on - month [40]. - **Inventory**: In the week of September 5, the in - factory inventory of float glass was reported at 6305.0 million weight boxes, an increase of 48.4 million weight boxes compared to August 29; the available days of in - factory inventory were 26.9 days, an increase of 0.2 days month - on - month [44]. - **Demand**: As of September 1, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 10.4 days [48]. Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of September 5, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was reported at 86.22%, an increase of 3.75 percentage points compared to the previous week; the output was reported at 75.17 tons, an increase of 3.26 tons compared to the previous week [53]. - **Inventory**: As of September 5, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was reported at 182.21 tons, a decrease of 4.54 tons compared to August 29 [58]. - **Sales Rate**: As of September 5, the sales rate of soda ash was reported at 106.04%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to August 29 [62].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly methanol data report released by New Era Futures Research on September 5, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation of methanol remains loose, with prices fluctuating within a range and being mostly affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of olefin plants [21] - In the long - term, the supply - side pressure of methanol persists, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the impact of gas restrictions in Iran on methanol imports [21] Group 4: Price Trends - The futures price of MA2601 increased from 2361 yuan/ton to 2415 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.29%. The basis decreased from - 136 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.94%. The price of methanol in Taicang dropped from 2298.4 yuan/ton to 2255.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88%. The methanol CFR price decreased from 260 dollars/ton to 258.33 dollars/ton, a decline of 0.64% [4] - Among downstream products, the price of formaldehyde in Shandong remained unchanged, the price of glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu increased from 2229 yuan/ton to 2278.75 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.23%, the price of dimethyl ether in Henan remained unchanged, and the price of MTBE in Shandong increased from 4980 yuan/ton to 5061.25 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.63% [4] Group 5: Cost and Profit - This week, coal - based methanol profit slightly decreased due to the continuous decline and subsequent rebound of coal prices and increased freight. The profits of natural - gas - based and coke - oven - gas - based methanol recovered due to cost reduction [9] - As the methanol price decreased, the downstream profits significantly recovered, especially acetic acid, with a month - on - month increase of 23.69% [10] Group 6: Supply Side - As of September 4, the weekly plant capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points. Methanol production was 1.9628 million tons, an increase of 43,700 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% [13] - This week, the total restored capacity of returning plants was about 3.4 million tons, and the total lost capacity of maintenance plants was about 700,000 tons. Next week, some plants are planned for maintenance and some for resumption, with the resumption volume slightly larger than the maintenance volume [13] Group 7: Demand Side - With the gradual recovery of MTO profit, the MTO operating rate remained stable but decreased slightly due to the maintenance of Ningxia Baofeng's olefin plant on Thursday. Traditional downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs and decreased slightly due to some plant maintenance [16] - Although the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has arrived, the actual demand fulfillment is slightly poor, and attention should be paid to whether future demand can meet expectations [16] Group 8: Inventory - As of September 3, the total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 1.4277 million tons, an increase of 128,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 9.88%. The inventory accumulation rate at ports narrowed compared to last week but still exceeded 1.4 million tons. The inland inventory was 341,100 tons, an increase of 7700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.31%, remaining at a low - inventory level [19] Group 9: Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation of methanol remains loose, with prices fluctuating within a range and being mostly affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of olefin plants [21] - In the long - term, the supply - side pressure of methanol persists, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the impact of gas restrictions in Iran on methanol imports [21] - Next week's key points of concern include the recovery of coastal olefin plants, methanol inventory accumulation pressure, coal price impact, and macro - market sentiment [21]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Sector Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Weiwei [3] Group 2: Macro and Crude Oil News - OPEC+ may decide to increase oil production in October, potentially starting to lift the second-layer production cut plan with a reduction of about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. The market expected a 2 - 3 - month pause in production increase. The OPEC+ meeting on September 7 is awaited [4]. - Trump hinted at imposing second and third - stage oil sanctions on Russia, and the US hopes Europe will stop buying Russian oil and join proposed sanctions against countries that continue to buy [4]. - Fed officials including Williams, Waller, and Kashkari indicated that it is appropriate to cut interest rates in response to rising risks in the job market and the current economic situation [4]. - The US added 54,000 ADP jobs in August, lower than the expected 65,000. The initial jobless claims last week increased to 237,000. The market has priced in a 98% chance of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed at the September 17 policy meeting [5]. - The US Labor Day marks the end of the summer travel season, leading to a seasonal decline in gasoline consumption. As of August 29, the US daily crude oil production was 13.423 million barrels, down 16,000 barrels from the previous week but up 123,000 barrels from the same period last year. The commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2.42 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.8 million barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 1.68 million barrels [6]. Group 3: Futures and Spot Prices | Type | 2025/9/4 | 2025/8/28 | Week Change | Week - on - Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous (USD/barrel) | 63.3 | 64.27 | - 1 | - 1.51% | | Naphtha (USD/ton) | 592.5 | 593.88 | - 1.38 | - 0.23% | | PX511 (CNY/ton) | 6680 | 6886 | - 206 | - 2.99% | | PX CFR: Taiwan Province (CNY/ton) | 6780.87 | 6951.22 | - 170.35 | - 2.45% | | TA601 (CNY/ton) | 4656 | 4792 | - 136 | - 2.84% | | PTA Spot Benchmark Price (CNY/ton) | 4615 | 4775 | - 160 | - 3.35% | | EG601 (CNY/ton) | 4357 | 4465 | - 108 | - 2.42% | | Ethylene Glycol East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 4456 | 4525 | - 69 | - 1.52% | | PF511 (CNY/ton) | 6330 | 6526 | - 196 | - 3.00% | | Polyester Staple Fiber East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 6450 | 6555 | - 105 | - 1.60% | | PR511 (CNY/ton) | 5820 | 5982 | - 162 | - 2.71% | | Polyester Bottle Chip East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 5790 | 5860 | - 70 | - 1.19% | [8] Group 4: PX Supply - Domestic PX supply was stable this week. As of September 4, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 84.63% (unchanged), and the weekly output was 709,800 tons (unchanged). Asian PX supply was also stable, with a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 74.46% (unchanged) [11]. - Next week, Dalian Fujia's 700,000 - ton and Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton PX plants will be under maintenance, while Fuhai Chuang's 1.6 - million - ton plant is planned to restart, and the PX weekly output is expected to increase slightly [11]. Group 5: PTA Supply and Inventory - This week, the overall domestic PTA supply decreased due to the co - existence of maintenance and restart of two sets of Taihua's plants and the supply reduction caused by the maintenance of Dushan Energy last week. As of September 4, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 69.48% (- 1.38 percentage points), and the weekly output was 1.2893 million tons (- 23,600 tons). Next week, Hengli Huizhou has a restart plan, and the domestic supply is expected to increase slightly [14]. - This week, PTA social inventory continued to decline. As of September 4, the available days of PTA in - plant inventory were 3.9 days (+ 0.09 days), the PTA inventory of polyester plants was 7.05 days (- 0.50 days), and the PTA social inventory was about 3.3795 million tons (- 152,600 tons) [14]. Group 6: Ethylene Glycol Supply and Inventory - This week, the domestic ethylene glycol supply increased as multiple plants increased their loads. As of September 4, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 67.45% (+ 2.34 percentage points), including 66.84% for integrated plants (+ 1.64 percentage points) and 68.34% for coal - based ethylene glycol plants (+ 3.46 percentage points), and the weekly output was 410,000 tons (+ 14,200 tons). Xinjiang Tianye and Inner Mongolia Jianyuan plants are planned to be under maintenance, and the domestic supply is expected to decrease slightly next week [18]. - This week, the port inventory of ethylene glycol decreased. As of September 4, the total inventory in East China ports was 376,300 tons, down 36,900 tons from last Thursday and 13,300 tons from this Monday. Although the arriving goods will increase next week, the inland supply will decrease, and the port may continue to reduce inventory [18]. Group 7: Polyester Sector - The weekly average polyester operating rate was 87.33%, up 0.67 percentage points from the previous week [19]. - This week, the inventory of polyester filament and staple fiber increased [22]. Group 8: Terminal Market - As of September 4, the operating rate of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 62.42% (+ 0.44), the order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 13.89 days (+ 1.17 days), and the inventory days of grey cloth were 26.59 days (- 0.32 days) [28]. Group 9: Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The supply is recovering, but the overall pressure is not high. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season has started, but the actual improvement in demand is limited. The fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the polyester sector will passively follow the cost fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting results and the impact of anti - involution sentiment [30]. - Medium - and long - term: The demand is expected to improve, and the operating center of the polyester sector tends to move up [31]. - Next week's focus and risk warnings include geopolitical situation changes, the OPEC+ meeting, macro - market sentiment, and the operation of upstream and downstream plants [31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the results of the MPOB report next week and the further clarification of the US biodiesel policy. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce until March 9, 2026 also affects the market. The production, export, and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia in August are expected to change, with expected export growth and inventory accumulation. For palm oil, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9750 next week, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 10000 as it is in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart [23][24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From August 29 to September 5, 2025, the futures closing prices of palm oil (P2601), rapeseed oil (OI2601), and soybean oil (Y2601) increased by 2.25%, 0.30%, and 1.10% respectively. The spot prices of palm oil decreased by 1.38%, rapeseed oil increased by 0.22%, and soybean oil increased by 1.19% [2]. Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of September 4, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil were 72 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton from the previous week), 119 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 10 yuan/ton (down 108 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of September 5, 2025, the YP spread was - 1076 yuan/ton (down 118 yuan/ton from the previous week) [5]. Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of August 29, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.4 tons (down 0.1 tons from the previous week), the palm oil factory commercial inventory was 61.01 tons (up 2.8 tons from the previous week), the national soybean oil factory inventory was 123.88 tons (up 5.28 tons from the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 195.29 tons (up 7.98 tons from the previous week) [8]. Supply - side of Palm Oil - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of July increased by 4.02% to 211 tons compared to the previous month. In June 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 13.2% to 253.0 tons [13]. Supply - side of Soybean Oil - As of August 29, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 905.60 tons (up 15.8 tons from the previous week), the national major oil factory soybean inventory was 696.85 tons (up 14.32 tons from the previous week), and the oil factory operating rate was 61% (down 1% from the previous week). As of September 4, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 587.80 yuan/ton (down 1.8 yuan/ton from the previous week) [16]. Supply - side of Rapeseed Oil - As of August 29, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil factories was 10 tons (down 5 tons from the previous week). As of September 5, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was - 2285.60 yuan/ton (up 289.4 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19]. Demand - side - On September 4, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil factories was 233 tons, and that of first - grade soybean oil was 2000 tons. The POGO spread was 428.24 dollars/ton (down 22.75 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 865 tons [22]. Strategy Recommendation - For palm oil, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 9750 next week, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to fluctuate between 9400 - 10000 as it is in the third wave of an uptrend on the weekly chart [25][26]. Next Week's Concerns - The concerns include the US biodiesel policy, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations, high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil, and weather [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, corporate earnings have not significantly improved. After repeated digestion of previous policy benefits, market bullish sentiment has cooled. There is a risk of adjustment in stock indices due to profit - taking pressure. Gold has accelerated its short - term rise driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, but attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility [42]. - In the medium - to long - term, the valuation of stock indices is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end comes from the recovery of risk appetite. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Gold may face a deep - adjustment risk due to the fading of uncertainties from US tariff policies, the potential easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the repeated digestion of the Fed's September interest rate cut expectations [42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Macroeconomic Data - In August 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4, remaining in the contraction range for 5 consecutive months. Industrial production expansion accelerated, demand improved marginally, but external demand faced significant downward pressure, and the business climate of small and medium - sized enterprises remained weak [3][4]. 3.2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - **Corporate Earnings**: Due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises face great operating pressure. They cannot transfer production costs to end - consumers, resulting in a long - standing phenomenon of increasing revenue without increasing profits. Some industries are still in the active de - stocking phase, with finished - product inventories continuing to decline [18]. - **Funding and Liquidity**: The margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased slightly. The central bank conducted 1.0684 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2047 trillion yuan [22]. 3.3. Gold Fundamental Data - **Inflation and Consumption**: The US core PCE price index in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year (previous value: 2.8%), rising for 3 consecutive months and reaching a new high since February. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% month - on - month, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous month. US tariff policies are affecting prices, suppressing consumer confidence and consumption expenditure [28]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold futures' warehouse receipts and inventory have been rising, indicating an increase in physical gold delivery demand and a resurgence of bullish sentiment in the market [39]. 3.4. Strategy Recommendation - **Stock Indices**: Although the official manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in July, the economic recovery foundation is not solid, with insufficient demand being the main contradiction. The previous sharp rise in stock index futures was driven by multiple factors such as policies, funds, and sentiment. However, the inflection point of corporate earnings growth has not arrived. As policy benefits are repeatedly digested, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled, and short - term adjustments are expected [41]. - **Gold**: Multiple Fed officials have made dovish remarks, suggesting that a September interest rate cut is highly likely. The controversy over Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook has intensified market concerns about central bank independence, driving up the gold price to a new record high. Attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility [41].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [1] Group 2: Metal Price Movements - Copper: The futures price of CU2510 rose from 79,410 to 80,140, a weekly increase of 0.92%. The spot price of 1 copper in Shanghai increased from 79,350 to 79,970, a rise of 0.78% [2]. - Aluminum: The futures price of AL2510 dropped from 20,740 to 20,695, a weekly decrease of 0.22%. The spot price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai decreased from 20,720 to 20,650, a decline of 0.34% [2]. - Zinc: The futures price of ZN2510 rose slightly from 22,140 to 22,155, a weekly increase of 0.07%. The spot price of 0 zinc in Shanghai increased from 22,030 to 22,040, a rise of 0.05% [2]. - Lead: The futures price of PB2510 rose from 16,880 to 16,900, a weekly increase of 0.12%. The spot price of 1 lead ingot remained unchanged at 16,725 [2]. - Nickel: The futures price of NI2510 dropped from 121,700 to 121,310, a weekly decrease of 0.32%. The spot price of 1 electrolytic nickel decreased from 122,400 to 121,700, a decline of 0.57% [2]. - Alumina: The futures price of AO2601 dropped from 3036 to 3006, a weekly decrease of 0.99%. The spot price of alumina in Foshan decreased from 3240 to 3210, a decline of 0.93% [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of SI2511 rose from 8390 to 8820, a weekly increase of 5.13%. The spot price of 553 silicon decreased from 9400 to 9300, a decline of 1.06% [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price of LC2511 dropped from 77,180 to 74,260, a weekly decrease of 3.78%. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) decreased from 83,700 to 75,400, a decline of 9.92% [2]. - Polysilicon: The futures price of PS2511 rose from 49,555 to 56,735, a weekly increase of 14.49%. The spot price of N - type polysilicon material increased from 49,000 to 51,600, a rise of 5.31% [2]. Group 3: Metal Inventory Changes - Copper: As of September 5, SHFE copper inventory was 81,900 tons, a 2.76% increase from last week. LME copper inventory was 158,300 tons, a 0.19% increase. As of September 4, COMEX copper inventory was 302,700 tons, a 9.99% increase [12][13]. - Zinc: As of September 5, LME zinc inventory was 54,100 tons, a 4.25% decrease from last week. SHFE zinc inventory was 40,800 tons, a 7.37% increase [22]. - Aluminum: As of September 5, LME aluminum inventory was 484,700 tons, an increase of 3625 tons from last week. SHFE aluminum inventory was 124,100 tons, a decrease of 1518 tons. As of September 4, COMEX aluminum inventory was 9511 metric tons, a decrease of 25 metric tons [36][37]. - Alumina: As of September 5, SHFE alumina inventory was 112,300 tons, an increase of 14,500 tons from last week [29]. Group 4: Processing Fees and Index Changes - Copper Concentrate: As of September 4, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 40.60 dollars/ton, rising to 0.46 dollars/ton weekly, with a continued tight supply expectation at the mine end [16]. - Lithium Spodumene Concentrate: As of September 5, the CIF China index dropped to 871 dollars/ton, a decrease of 23 dollars from August 29 [18]. - Zinc Concentrate: As of September 5, the TC of zinc concentrate at major ports was 90 dollars/ton, a significant increase of 15 dollars from last week [23]. Group 5: Supply - Side Analysis - Bauxite: Supply disturbances have暂缓, but there is still room for fermentation. High inventory and demand growth, along with decreased shipments from Guinea, are in a game. The price of imported bauxite is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term [24][26]. - Alumina: Supply - side开工 decreased slightly, and inventory continued to increase. The market is in an overall oversupply situation [27][29]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Supply - side开工 maintained a high level. Due to high profits, electrolytic aluminum enterprises have a strong willingness to start, with an annual 2025开工 rate above 95%. However, the available primary aluminum in the market is limited, and the overall inventory is at a low level [30][34]. Group 6: Demand - Side Analysis - Automobile: In July, automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July, production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. In July, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% and 27.4%. From January to July, production and sales were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 39.2% and 38.5% [41]. - Real Estate: From January to July, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. The new residential construction area was 258.81 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. The residential completion area was 180.67 million square meters, a decrease of 17.3% [43]. - Power Generation: As of the end of July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.67 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. The installed wind power capacity was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. From January to July, the new installed photovoltaic capacity was 223.25GW, and in July it was 11.64GW, a month - on - month decrease of 18.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.7% [45]. Group 7: Strategy Recommendations Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum - Short - term: Alumina will run weakly and volatilely. For SHFE aluminum, it is advisable to buy on dips, focusing on the fulfillment of the peak - season demand expectation [46][47]. - Medium - to - long - term: Entering the downstream consumption peak season, pay attention to downstream order transactions. If consumption recovers, SHFE aluminum has upward momentum [48]. Polysilicon - Short - term: Frequent news disturbances lead to wide - range price fluctuations. Be vigilant about market sentiment changes, and do not over - position [49][50]. - Medium - to - long - term: The actual downstream demand improvement is limited, and the industry inventory remains high [51].

Report Overview - Report Name: Methanol Data Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Weiwei [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern of methanol remains loose, and the price will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of olefin plants and downstream inventory - building [22]. - In the long - term, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at ports, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the actual demand fulfillment during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the impact of gas restrictions in Iran on methanol imports [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Spot and Futures and Downstream Price Trends - Futures: The price of MA2601 was 2,361 yuan/ton on August 29, 2025, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.83%) from August 22. The basis was - 136 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-23.64%) [4]. - Spot: The price of methanol in Taicang was 2,298.4 yuan/ton, down 61.2 yuan/ton (-2.59%); the CFR price of methanol was 262 US dollars/ton, up 0.6 US dollars/ton (0.23%) [4]. - Downstream: The price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.95%); the price of glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu was 2,223.75 yuan/ton, up 33.75 yuan/ton (1.54%); the price of dimethyl ether in Henan remained unchanged at 3,400 yuan/ton; the price of MTBE in Shandong was 4,983.75 yuan/ton, down 27.25 yuan/ton (-0.54%) [4]. 3.2 Methanol Cost and Profit - Due to the decline in coal prices, although methanol prices also dropped, the decline was limited, so the profitability of coal - based methanol production slightly improved. Meanwhile, the profits of coke oven gas - based and natural gas - based methanol production decreased month - on - month, and natural gas - based methanol continued to operate at a loss [9]. - As the "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, the demand fulfillment is slightly weak. The profit of MTO continues to recover, and the demand support for methanol continues. The profits of traditional demand sectors show mixed trends, and current demand is mainly driven by rigid needs [9]. 3.3 Methanol Supply Side - As of August 28, the weekly plant capacity utilization rate was 84.84%, up 1.07 percentage points month - on - month. Methanol production was 1.9182 million tons, an increase of 24,200 tons (1.28%) from the previous week [14]. - This week, plants in Shaanxi Shenmu, Xin'ao Daqi, Inner Mongolia Yigao, etc. resumed production, with a total restored production capacity of about 2.6 million tons; plants in Xinxiang Zhongxin, Shanxi Linxin, Xiaoyi Pengfei, etc. were under maintenance, with a total lost production capacity of about 1.2 million tons [14]. - In early September, plants such as Ningxia Baofeng are planned to resume production, with a restored production capacity of about 2.2 million tons, and the next - period operating rate may continue to rise [13]. 3.4 Methanol Demand Side - The operating rate of methanol - to - olefins was 85.35%, up 0.76 percentage points; the operating rate of formaldehyde was 41.27%, down 0.27 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid was 85.24%, down 3.77 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.97%, down 1.05 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE remained unchanged at 63.54%; the operating rate of methane chloride was 87.17%, up 2.49 percentage points [17]. 3.5 Methanol Port and Inland Inventory - As of August 27, the total methanol port inventory was 1.2993 million tons, an increase of 223,300 tons (20.7%) from the previous period. With stable overseas operating rates and stable imported supplies, coastal olefin plants have no restart plans, and port inventory may continue to accumulate [21]. - Inland inventory was 333,400 tons, an increase of 22,600 tons (7.27%) from the previous period, still at a low - inventory level. The marginal demand for external procurement of olefins in some inland areas has weakened. Attention should be paid to the continuous rhythm of port cargo "back - flowing" [21]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and methanol prices will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of olefin plants and downstream inventory - building [22]. - Long - term: There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation at ports, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the actual demand fulfillment during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the impact of gas restrictions in Iran on methanol imports [22]. - Next week's focus and risk warnings: The recovery of coastal olefin plants, methanol inventory accumulation pressure, and macro - market sentiment [22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, trade soybean and rapeseed meal on a short - term basis. With US soybean facing pressure from high - yield expectations and domestic supply remaining loose, focus on the outcome of Sino - US negotiations for soybean meal. For rapeseed meal, although port and coastal oil mill inventories are decreasing, weak terminal demand exists, so pay attention to trade flow changes [45]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex [46]. 3. Summary by Directory Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Soybean Meal**: The futures主力合约 (M2601) closed at 3039 on August 28, 2025, down 121 from August 20, a 3.83% drop. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 2980, down 40 from August 20, a 1.32% drop [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures主力合约 (RM601) closed at 2483 on August 28, 2025, down 144 from August 20, a 5.48% drop. The average spot price of rapeseed meal in China was 2540, down 80 from August 20, a 3.05% drop [4]. - **Corn**: The futures主力合约 (C2511) closed at 2185 on August 28, 2025, up 15 from August 20, a 0.69% increase. The spot price of second - grade national standard corn with 14.5% moisture at Bayuquan Port was 2310, unchanged from August 20 [4]. - **Pig**: The futures主力合约 (LH2511) closed at 13590 on August 28, 2025, down 185 from August 20, a 1.34% drop. The spot price of commercial pigs in Henan was 13.64, down 0.05 from August 20, a 0.37% drop [4]. - **Egg**: The futures主力合约 (JD2510) closed at 2930 on August 28, 2025, down 142 from August 20, a 4.62% drop. The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 3.22, down 0.02 from August 20, a 0.62% drop [4]. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side** - **Weather**: In August, the weather in the core production areas such as the US plains and the Midwest was favorable, and the overall good - quality rate of soybeans remained high. The latest US crop growth report showed that the good - quality rate of US soybeans rose from 68% the previous week to 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. September is gradually entering the early harvest stage, and the weather trading window is narrowing [11]. - **US Soybeans**: Entering the early harvest stage in September, focus on US soybean export demand [11]. - **Brazil**: On August 27, the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in August 2025 would be 8.9 million tons, slightly lower than the previous week's estimate of 8.94 million tons. If the forecast comes true, it will be an 11.5% increase from 7.98 million tons in August 2024 but lower than the export volume of 12.02 million tons in July this year [11]. - **Argentina**: On August 28, the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture said that the pace of soybean sales in Argentina slowed down last week. As of August 20, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 29.9 million tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season, 390,000 tons higher than a week ago, compared with 26.14 million tons in the same period in 2024. Last week, the sales volume was 820,000 tons [11]. - **Supply - Import**: In July 2025, China's soybean imports reached a record 16.7 million tons. Imports from Brazil increased significantly, accounting for 89% of the total imports, reaching 10.39 million tons, a 13.9% year - on - year increase. Imports from the US were only 420,000 tons, a 11.5% year - on - year decrease. Imports from Argentina were 560,000 tons in July, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 670,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 104.7% [11]. - **Demand** - **Pressing**: As of the week ending August 22, the actual soybean pressing volume of oil mills was 2.27 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.81%. The soybean inventory was 6.8253 million tons, an increase of 21,300 tons from the previous week, a 0.31% increase, and a year - on - year decrease of 394,000 tons, a 5.46% decrease. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons from the previous week, a 3.8% increase, and a year - on - year decrease of 445,300 tons, a 29.71% decrease [11]. - **Transaction**: On August 28, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 126,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous day, and the spot transaction volume was 106,000 tons [11]. - **Inventory** - **Oil Mill Inventory**: As of August 22, the cumulative soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 7.1 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.04 million tons. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will pick up next week, the soybean pressing volume will rise to about 2.5 million tons, and the soybean meal output will increase. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills may rise above 1.1 million tons by the end of August [11]. Supply Side - Import - As of August 28, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 484.00 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The CNF price of imported soybeans from the US West was 453.00 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars per ton from the previous week [19]. Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week ending August 28, the soybean pressing profit was 86.60 yuan per ton, a decrease of 110.00 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of the week ending August 22, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4402 million tons, a decrease of 17,500 tons from the previous week. As of August 22, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 62%, the same as the previous week [24]. Inventory Side - As of August 29, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 6.8546 million tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a low level in the past five years. As of August 22, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 985,500 tons, an increase of 11,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills is at a medium level in the past five years [27]. Demand Side - As of August 22, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 155,000 tons, a decrease of 70,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level in the past five years [33]. Pig Supply and Demand No specific content provided for further summary. Pig Slaughter and Breeding Profit No specific content provided for further summary. Strategy Recommendation - **Short - term**: Trade soybean and rapeseed meal on a short - term basis. For soybean meal, focus on the outcome of Sino - US negotiations; for rapeseed meal, focus on trade flow changes [45]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: The global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex is limited [46]. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning Focus on产区 weather, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, stock index futures have risen sharply due to policy, capital, and sentiment factors, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved, so be wary of adjustments caused by profit - taking. Gold rebounds in the short - term, but pay attention to increased volatility risks. In the medium - to long - term, the stock index maintains a wide - range oscillation, and gold faces a risk of deep adjustment [32]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to July this year, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and the inventory of finished products increased by 2.4% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling for four consecutive months, indicating insufficient terminal demand and high operating pressure on downstream enterprises [4]. 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Corporate Earnings - The decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size has narrowed marginally, but there is a differentiation in operating efficiency among different industries. The profits of high - end and equipment manufacturing industries maintain rapid growth, while those of industries such as textiles, chemical fibers, and plastics decline more [15]. 3.2.2 Capital - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, hitting a record high. The central bank has carried out 2273.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase and 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations this week, achieving a net investment of 496.1 billion yuan [19]. 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Risk - free Interest Rate: Holding Cost, Inflation Level - In the US, durable goods orders decreased by 2.8% month - on - month in July, and the consumer confidence index dropped from 98.7 to 97.4 in August, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activities and pressure on employment. The market has repeatedly digested the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and the US Treasury yield has declined slightly [22]. 3.3.2 US Consumer Confidence Index, Employment Situation - Affected by Trump's tariff policy, US manufacturing activities have slowed down significantly, downstream durable goods orders have declined, and employment is under pressure [22]. 3.3.3 Domestic and Foreign Gold Inventory Situation - Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory have increased significantly, while New York futures inventory has continued to decline, and market bullish sentiment has cooled [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, the market sentiment in the black - series market continues to be weak. The relaxation of real - estate purchase restrictions in Shanghai has no substantial boost to steel demand. With the upcoming military parade environmental protection restrictions, the production of finished products and the supply of iron ore are expected to be reduced, and the demand side is under pressure. For glass and soda ash, the start - up rate and weekly output of float glass are stable, and the factory inventory has stopped rising and started to decline, with slightly improved market sentiment. The supply - demand fundamentals of soda ash have limited improvement, and the main contract fluctuates weakly and steadily [63][66]. - In the short term, the main contracts of the black - series are mainly in a range - bound operation, and attention should be paid to the demand start - up situation during the "Golden September and Silver October". The bottom center of glass has moved up this week, while soda ash lacks upward driving force and mainly fluctuates widely in the short term [64][67]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black - series Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the closing price of the main futures contract of rebar (RB2510) decreased from 3119 to 3090, a decrease of 29.0 with a decline rate of - 0.9%; hot - rolled coil (HC2601) decreased from 3361 to 3346, a decrease of 15.0 with a decline rate of - 0.4%; iron ore (I2601) increased from 770 to 787.5, an increase of 17.5 with an increase rate of 2.3%; coke (J2601) decreased from 1679 to 1643, a decrease of 35.5 with a decline rate of - 2.1%; coking coal (JM2601) decreased from 1162 to 1151, a decrease of 11.0 with a decline rate of - 0.9%; glass (FG601) increased from 1173 to 1182, an increase of 9.0 with an increase rate of 0.8%; soda ash (SA601) decreased from 1326 to 1296, a decrease of 30.0 with a decline rate of - 2.3%. The corresponding spot prices and basis are also provided [2]. Rebar - **Profit**: On August 28, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was reported at 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton compared with August 21 [6]. - **Supply**: As of August 29, 2025, the blast - furnace start - up rate was 83.2%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 240.13 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons; the rebar output was 220.56 million tons, a decrease of 5.91 million tons [11]. - **Demand**: In the week of August 29, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 204.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.14 million tons; as of August 28, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 102,737 tons [15]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 29, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 453.77 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 21.26 million tons; the factory inventory was reported at 169.62 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.91 million tons [20]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: In the week of August 22, the global shipment volume of iron ore was reported at 3115.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 290.8 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was reported at 2462.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 240.8 million tons [25]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 29, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 14388.02 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56.18 million tons; the inventory of imported iron ore of 247 steel enterprises was reported at 9007.19 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.28 million tons [28]. - **Demand**: In the week of August 29, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 334.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.9 million tons; as of August 28, the trading volume at major ports in China was reported at 90.7 million tons [33]. Float Glass - **Supply**: In the week of August 29, the number of operating float - glass production lines was reported at 224, a week - on - week increase of 1; the weekly output was reported at 1117025 tons, the same as last week; as of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was reported at 79.78%, the same as last week; the start - up rate of float glass was reported at 75.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 percentage points [38]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 29, the factory inventory of float glass was reported at 6256.6 million weight boxes, a decrease of 104 million weight boxes compared with August 22; the available days of factory inventory were 26.7 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 days [42]. - **Demand**: As of July 31, the order days of downstream glass deep - processing manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared with July 15 [46]. Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of August 29, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was reported at 82.47%, a decrease of 6.01 percentage points compared with last week; the output was reported at 71.91 million tons, a decrease of 5.23 million tons compared with last week [51]. - **Inventory**: As of August 29, the factory inventory of soda ash was reported at 186.75 million tons, a decrease of 4.33 million tons compared with August 22 [56]. - **Sales - to - production Ratio**: As of August 29, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was reported at 106.02%, an increase of 8.22 percentage points compared with August 22 [60]. Strategy Recommendations - **Rebar and Iron Ore**: In the medium to long term, the market sentiment is weak, and production is expected to be restricted. In the short term, the main contracts are in a range - bound operation, and attention should be paid to the "Golden September and Silver October" demand [63][64]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: In the medium to long term, the market sentiment of glass has improved slightly, and soda ash shows a weak and stable fluctuation. In the short term, the bottom of glass has moved up, and soda ash fluctuates widely [66][67].