投资有风险，入市需谨慎 股指、黄金周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251219 惠农保价稳产 国内外宏观经济数据 今年1-11月固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，降幅较上月扩大0.9个百分点；规模以上工业 增加值同比增长6%（前值6.1%），社会消费品零售总统同比增长4%，增速较上月回落 0.3个百分点。数据表明，我国经济恢复的基础不牢固，固定资产投资继续下行，消费 增速边际放缓，唯有工业生产维持高位运行。 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: IF 惠农保价稳产 IC AU 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 股指、黄金现货价格走势 股指基本面数据 企业盈利 资金面 利率 流动性 今年11月新增人民币贷款3900亿元，较上年同期少增1900亿元；社会融资规模增量为 24888亿元，同比多增1600亿元。广义货币供应量M2同比增长8%，较上月回落0.2个百 分点，M1同比增长4.9%（前值6.2%），增速连续两个月放缓。 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 IH 沪深两市融资余额小幅降至24781.54亿元，央行本周共开展6575亿逆回购操作，实现 净回笼110亿元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, domestic economic data is mixed with positive policy signals, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved, so the short - term rebound of stock indices should be treated with caution; the Fed's rate cut is settled, but the threshold for further rate cuts next year is raised, so gold's short - term rise is still a rebound. In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices will be dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth, and the support mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, so stock indices will maintain a wide - range oscillation; with the fading of uncertainties in US tariff policies, the potential easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the narrowing of the Fed's future rate - cut space, gold may face a deep - adjustment risk [37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Data - In November this year, imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year, with the growth rates accelerating by 0.9 and 7 percentage points respectively compared to last month. CPI rose by 0.7% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to last month. PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month, mainly affected by the increase in the base of the same period last year and the decline in some industrial product prices [4] 2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - With the marginal weakening of the "two new" policies and the early release of demand for durable goods such as automobiles, home appliances and mobile communications, the profit growth of related industries has slowed down. Downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure and are in the stage of active inventory reduction. The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 24888.31 billion yuan. The central bank conducted a total of 6685 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 47 billion yuan [14][16] 3. Gold Fundamental Data - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in its December meeting, announced to buy $40 billion of short - term Treasury bills per month, and the interest - rate dot plot maintained the prediction of one rate cut next year. The 10 - year US Treasury yield declined slightly. The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures slowed down, and the inventory of New York COMEX gold continued to decline, reflecting a cooling of market bullish sentiment [21][22][36] 4. Strategy Recommendation - In November, imports rebounded slightly and export growth accelerated, mainly due to the low - base effect of the same period last year and the increased pre - Christmas stocking demand. CPI rebounded for two consecutive months, while the year - on - year decline of PPI expanded, mainly dragged down by the price decline of related industries such as building materials and chemical raw materials. In terms of corporate earnings, driven by policies, the prices of new energy and non - ferrous metals industries rebounded, which is conducive to the improvement of the profits of upstream raw materials processing industries. However, the marginal effect of policies on large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement is weakening, and the profit growth of related industries of durable goods has slowed down. The domestic policy side has released positive signals, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved, so the stock index may fluctuate in the short term. The Fed's rate cut and related policies have led to a decline in the US dollar index and a short - term rebound of gold [37]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the black commodity sector, covering steel products, iron ore, glass, and soda ash, with data from November 28 to December 5, 2025 [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the medium to long - term, the steel industry's prosperity is declining, with weakening demand for rebar and downward pressure on iron ore futures prices. Glass and soda ash also face challenges, with limited upward momentum for glass and weak demand for soda ash [67][71] - In the short - term, rebar and iron ore are expected to trade in a range, while glass and soda ash are likely to show a weak and oscillating trend [68][72] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Black Commodities Weekly Market Review - **Rebar (RB2605)**: Futures price rose from 3117 to 3157 (up 1%), with a spot price of 3290 and a basis of 133 [2] - **Hot - rolled coil (HC2605)**: Futures price increased from 3288 to 3320 (up 1%), spot price 3300, basis - 20 [2] - **Iron ore (I2601)**: Futures price dropped from 794 to 786 (down 1%), spot price 810, basis 25 [2] - **Coke (J2601)**: Futures price rose from 1575 to 1585 (up 1%), spot price 1720, basis 135 [2] - **Coking coal (JM2605)**: Futures price decreased from 1152 to 1140 (down 1%), spot price 1510, basis 370 [2] - **Glass (FG601)**: Futures price fell from 1053 to 994 (down 6%), spot price 1130, basis 136 [2] - **Soda ash (SA601)**: Futures price declined from 1177 to 1137 (down 3%), spot price 1258, basis 121 [2] 3.2 Rebar Analysis - **Profit**: On December 4, the blast - furnace profit for rebar was 31 yuan/ton [6] - **Supply**: As of December 5, the blast - furnace operating rate was 80.16% (down 0.93 percentage points), daily hot - metal output was 232.3 tons (down 2.38 tons), and weekly rebar production was 189.31 tons (down 16.77 tons) [12] - **Demand**: In the week of December 5, the apparent consumption of rebar was 216.98 tons (down 10.96 tons). As of December 4, the trading volume of construction steel by major traders was 93,867 tons [18] - **Inventory**: In the week of December 5, social rebar inventory was 361.13 tons (down 23.62 tons), and in - plant inventory was 142.68 tons (down 4.05 tons) [23] 3.3 Iron Ore Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of November 28, global iron - ore shipments were 3323.2 tons (up 44.8 tons), and arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 2784 tons (down 155.5 tons) [28] - **Inventory**: As of December 5, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 15991.11 tons (up 89.89 tons), and the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8984.73 tons (up 42.25 tons) [33] - **Demand**: In the week of December 5, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 334.23 tons (down 9.83 tons). As of December 4, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 126.6 tons [38] 3.4 Float Glass Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of December 5, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 218 (down 2), weekly output was 1085095 tons (down 18800 tons). As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate was 77.25%, and the operating rate was 73.4% [43] - **Inventory**: In the week of December 5, in - plant float - glass inventory was 59.442 million weight - boxes (down 2.92 million tons), and the available inventory days were 26.8 days (down 0.7 days) [48] - **Demand**: In the week of December 1, the deep - processing order days of glass downstream manufacturers were 10.1 days [52] 3.5 Soda Ash Analysis - **Supply**: In the week of December 5, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.74% (down 0.66 percentage points), and production was 70.39 tons (up 0.57 tons) [55] - **Inventory**: As of December 5, in - plant soda - ash inventory was 153.86 tons (down 4.88 tons) [60] - **Sales Ratio**: As of December 5, the soda - ash sales ratio was 106.93% (down 1.23 percentage points) [64] 3.6 Strategy Recommendations - **Rebar and Iron Ore**: Medium - to long - term outlook is bearish due to weakening demand and low winter - storage willingness. Short - term trading should be based on a range - bound strategy [67][68] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Medium - to long - term, glass has limited upward momentum, and soda - ash demand is weak. Short - term, they are expected to trade weakly and oscillate [71][72]

Report Title - Can-chemical Sector Weekly Report [1] - Polyester Sector Data Weekly Report [4] - Methanol and Polyethylene Data Weekly Report [36] Report Date - December 5, 2025 [2] Report Analysts - Zhang Weiwei, Qualification No.: F0269806, Investment Consulting No.: Z0002796 [3] - Bao Yuhong, Qualification No.: F03149670 [3] 1. Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Kazakhstan's daily oil and gas condensate production decreased by about 6% to 1.9 million barrels per day in the first two days of December after a drone attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea loading facilities [5] - Russia and the US held talks, but no compromise solution was reached on the Ukraine issue, and the return time of Russian crude oil supply remains unclear [5] - Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its main crude oil grade for Asia to the lowest level in five years, signaling weak demand in the Far East [5] - Russian President Putin visited India to strengthen energy relations, and Russia plans to increase oil supply and avoid Western sanctions [6] - US refined oil demand decreased year-on-year, with gasoline demand down 1.2%, distillate demand down 2.0%, and kerosene-type jet fuel demand down 1.9% in the four weeks ending November 28 [6] - US crude oil inventories increased by 574,000 barrels to 427.503 million barrels in the week ending November 28, while refinery utilization rate increased by 1.8 percentage points to 94.1% [6] 2. Futures and Spot Prices 2.1 Polyester Sector | Futures | 2025/12/4 | 2025/11/27 | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Spot | 2025/12/4 | 2025/11/27 | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous ($/barrel) | 59.7 | 59.12 | 0.58 | 0.98% | Naphtha ($/ton) | 559.75 | 566 | -6.25 | -1.10% | | PX601 (CNY/ton) | 6906 | 6718 | 188 | 2.80% | PX CFR: Taiwan (CNY/ton) | 6891.71 | 6741.19 | 150.52 | 2.23% | | TA601 (CNY/ton) | 4724 | 4632 | 92 | 1.99% | PTA Spot Benchmark Price (CNY/ton) | 4685 | 4615 | 70 | 1.52% | | EG601 (CNY/ton) | 3826 | 3873 | -47 | -1.21% | Ethylene Glycol East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 3813 | 3889 | -76 | -1.95% | | PF602 (CNY/ton) | 6268 | 6162 | 106 | 1.72% | Polyester Staple Fiber East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 6330 | 6280 | 50 | 0.80% | | PR603 (CNY/ton) | 5794 | 5724 | 70 | 1.22% | Polyester Bottle Chip East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 5750 | 5700 | 50 | 0.88% | 2.2 Methanol and Polyethylene | Futures | 2025/12/5 | 2025/11/28 | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Spot | 2025/12/5 | 2025/11/28 | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 (CNY/ton) | 2077 | 2135 | -58 | -2.72% | Methanol (Taicang) (CNY/ton) | 2121 | 2083 | 38 | 1.81% | | MA Basis (CNY/ton) | 8 | -25 | 33 | 132.00% | Methanol CFR ($/ton) | 248 | 242 | 6 | 2.48% | | L2601 (CNY/ton) | 6674 | 6789 | -115 | -1.52% | LLDPE (CNY/ton) | 6700 | 6830 | -130 | -1.90% | | L Basis (CNY/ton) | 26 | 41 | -15 | -0.22% | HDPE (CNY/ton) | 7380 | 7380 | 0 | 0.00% | | | | | | | LDPE (CNY/ton) | 8570 | 8670 | -100 | -1.15% | 3. Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Polyester Sector - **PX**: Domestic supply decreased slightly this week, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate at 89.21%, down 0.53% from last week. Asian PX also decreased slightly, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate at 79.12%, down 0.28 percentage points. Supply is expected to remain stable next week, and there is support at the bottom [15] - **PTA**: Supply increased slightly this week, with the weekly capacity utilization rate at 73.81%, up 1.89 percentage points from last week. Factory inventory increased, while social inventory continued to decline. Supply is expected to remain stable next week [19] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply increased slightly this week, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate at 65.42%, up 2.75 percentage points. Port inventory increased. There are maintenance plans for some devices in December, and the pressure of new device production is postponed [21] - **Polyester End**: The weekly average operating rate was 87.47%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week [22] - **Terminal**: Orders continued to decline, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms continued to decline [30] 3.2 Methanol - **Supply**: As of December 4, the domestic operating rate was 89.09%, down 0.002 percentage points from the previous period. Production was 2.0234 million tons, down 50 tons from the previous period. There are few device changes this week, and the operating rate and production only fluctuate slightly [44] - **Demand**: The MTO operating rate increased slightly to 90.82% due to the load increase of Qinghai Salt Lake. Ningbo Fude has a major maintenance plan on December 7, and the operating rate is expected to decrease in the next period. Traditional downstream is still in the off-season, and the downstream profit margin is squeezed [47] - **Inventory**: As of December 3, port inventory was 1.3494 million tons, down 1.4 tons from the previous period, and inland inventory was 361,500 tons, down 12,400 tons from the previous period. The inventory in both places decreased, but the port inventory decline slowed down [50] 3.3 Plastic - **Supply**: As of December 4, the domestic operating rate was 84.05%, down 0.46 percentage points from the previous period. Production was 681,100 tons, down 3,700 tons from the previous period. There were some device maintenance and return this week, and the production and operating rate decreased. Next week, some devices are expected to return, and some devices will be under maintenance [53] - **Demand**: As of December 4, the downstream operating rate was 43.76%, down 0.54 percentage points from the previous period. The demand for shed film has entered the off-season, and the order of packaging film has decreased marginally. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline [56] - **Inventory**: As of December 3, social inventory was 486,400 tons, up 15,300 tons from the previous period, and the inventory of two major oil companies was 384,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from the previous period. Enterprises are still in the de-stocking strategy, and the inventory has shifted [59] 4. Strategy Recommendations 4.1 Polyester Sector - **Short - term**: The supply pressure of PX and PTA is not large, and polyester demand remains stable, with support at the bottom. However, the terminal is weakening, restricting the rebound momentum. Ethylene glycol is in a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the implementation of device maintenance [34] - **Long - term**: Demand drive is insufficient, and supply changes dominate the market rhythm. PX and PTA are relatively strong, while ethylene glycol is weak [34] 4.2 Methanol - **Short - term**: The boost from gas restriction news has ended, and high supply and high inventory restrict the upward space of the market. With the expected weakening of demand, it is expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust [60] - **Long - term**: Iranian gas restriction has been implemented, and imports are expected to decrease from mid - December to next year. However, demand recovery is weak, and it may fluctuate widely [61] 4.3 Plastic - **Short - term**: The supply pressure has decreased slightly, but production is still at a high level. Demand is in the off - season and weakening. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [62] - **Long - term**: Although there is a maintenance plan for Sinochem Quanzhou in December, new production capacity is continuously released, and demand is expected to weaken. It is expected to continue to be weak [62] 5. Next Week's Focus and Risk Warnings 5.1 Polyester Sector - Changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation, cost fluctuations, macro - market sentiment, and the operation of upstream and downstream devices [35] 5.2 Methanol - High inventory pressure, unloading of foreign vessels, sustainability of olefin external procurement gap, and macro - market sentiment [61] 5.3 Plastic - Oil price fluctuations, inventory de - stocking, device maintenance, and downstream demand trends [63]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The US soybean futures price fluctuates narrowly, and the market still focuses on the actual implementation of US soybean exports to China. The domestic double - meal market generally maintains a weak and volatile trend. Overseas, although Chinese buyers have resumed purchasing US soybeans, they will continue to buy Brazilian soybeans. Domestically, the spot market shows a stalemate situation between supply and demand, and the spot price shows a certain resistance to decline. [40] - The rapeseed meal market has weak trading, and the core focus is on the arrival and customs clearance process of Australian rapeseed, which directly affects the short - term supply expectation. [40] - In the short term, the market is in a supply - demand stalemate. Soybean meal focuses on the actual implementation of US soybean exports to China, while rapeseed meal focuses on the arrival and customs clearance of Australian rapeseed. In the long - term, changes in trade relations are still the key driving force for the supply side of double - meal. [40][41] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Soybean Meal**: The closing price of the futures main contract M2601 on December 4, 2025, was 3,040, a weekly decrease of 15 or 0.49%. The spot price was 3,020, a weekly increase of 10 or 0.33%. [4] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The closing price of the futures main contract RM601 was 2,422, a weekly decrease of 47 or 1.90%. The spot price was 2,500, a weekly decrease of 50 or 1.96%. [4] - **Corn**: The closing price of the futures main contract C2601 was 2,287, a weekly increase of 44 or 1.96%. The spot price was 2,295, a weekly increase of 20 or 0.88%. [4] - **Pig**: The closing price of the futures main contract LH2601 was 11,385, a weekly decrease of 200 or 1.73%. The spot price was 11.23, a weekly decrease of 0.04 or 0.35%. [4] - **Egg**: The closing price of the futures main contract JD2601 was 3,138, a weekly decrease of 144 or 4.39%. The spot price was 3.06, a weekly increase of 0.07 or 2.34%. [4] Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - **Weather**: In the next 6 - 10 days, the temperatures in the main soybean - producing states in the US are all lower than normal, and the rainfall is mostly higher. [9] - **US Soybeans**: As of the week ending October 30, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the current market year was 1.2485 million tons, a 14% decrease from the previous week and a 19% increase from the average of the previous four weeks, with net sales to the Chinese mainland of 232,000 tons. [9] - **Brazil**: On December 4, Brazilian government data showed that Brazil's soybean exports in November increased by 64% year - on - year to 4.2 million tons. [9] - **Argentina**: The estimated soybean output in Argentina in the 2025/26 season is 46.9 million tons, the same as the previous forecast, but the early - season sowing is continuously delayed, and the soil moisture in the Pampas planting belt is declining. [9] Supply - **Imports**: In October, China imported no soybeans from the US for the second consecutive month, but the total soybean imports reached a record high of 9.48 million tons. Imports from Brazil were 7.12 million tons, a 28.8% year - on - year increase, accounting for 75.1% of the total imports, and imports from Argentina were 1.57 million tons, a 15.4% year - on - year increase. Since the beginning of 2025, China's soybean imports from the US have reached 16.82 million tons, a 11.5% year - on - year increase. [9] Demand - **Pressing**: Recently, the soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills is relatively high, and the soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate, approaching the high level of 1.2 million tons. It is expected that the soybean arrival volume in December will decrease slightly, with a total monthly pressing volume of about 8.6 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills at the end of the month will be around 0.9 million tons. [9] - **Transaction**: On December 4, the soybean meal transaction of domestic mainstream oil mills decreased. The trading volume was 89,800 tons, a decrease of 75,900 tons from the previous day. The spot trading volume was 55,800 tons, a decrease of 17,900 tons from the previous day, and the basis trading volume was 34,000 tons, a decrease of 58,000 tons from the previous day. The average transaction price was 3,092.74 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76 yuan/ton from the previous day. [9] Inventory - **Oil Mill Inventory**: In the 48th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased to 7.3396 million tons, a 2.65% increase from the previous week and a 47.57% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory increased to 1.2032 million tons, a 4.49% increase from the previous week and a 44.18% increase year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts decreased to 3.881 million tons, a 15.54% decrease from the previous week and a 5.28% decrease year - on - year. [9] Supply - Side Import - As of December 4, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was $476.00 per ton, a decrease of $14 per ton from the previous week, and the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was $494.00 per ton, a decrease of $2 per ton from the previous week. [17] Supply - Side Pressing - As of the week of December 4, the soybean pressing profit was - 58.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.90 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of November 28, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2568 million tons, a decrease of 68,600 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 57%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week. [25] Inventory - Side - As of December 4, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.3868 million tons, a decrease of 4,400 tons from the previous week, and it was at an extremely high level in the past five years seasonally. As of November 28, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0734 million tons, an increase of 16,900 tons from the previous week, and it was at an extremely high level in the past five years seasonally. [29] Demand - Side - As of November 28, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal of domestic mainstream oil mills was 100,800 tons, a decrease of 131,900 tons from the previous week, and it was at a moderately high level in the past five years seasonally. [33] Rapeseed Meal Supply - Side - The content provides historical data on rapeseed import volume, rapeseed meal production, and expected rapeseed arrival volume in China, but no new summary data is given. [36] Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory - Side - The content provides historical data on rapeseed meal inventory, supply, demand,提货 volume, apparent consumption, and trading volume in China, but no new summary data is given. [38] Strategy Recommendation - **Short - Term**: The market is in a supply - demand stalemate. Soybean meal focuses on the actual implementation of US soybean exports to China, and rapeseed meal focuses on the arrival and customs clearance of Australian rapeseed. [40] - **Long - Term**: Changes in trade relations are still the key driving force for the supply side of double - meal. [41] Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The focus is on the weather in the producing areas, US soybean exports to China, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans. [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of the three major oils showed mixed trends. Palm oil and soybean oil rose by 0.97% and 0.50% respectively, while rapeseed oil fell by 1.42%. In the short - term, palm oil is at risk of volatility as the market awaits the MPOB report; rapeseed oil will fluctuate as Australian rapeseed arrives but needs time for customs clearance and pressing; soybean oil will have narrow fluctuations due to ample supply and lack of drivers. In the medium - to - long - term, palm oil is expected to stabilize and rebound; rapeseed oil's price trend depends on China - Canada trade relations; the cost center of soybean oil is expected to rise [25][26] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2605) increased from 8678 to 8762, a weekly increase of 0.97%, and the spot price increased by 2.13%. The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) decreased from 9757 to 9618, a weekly decrease of 1.42%, and the spot price decreased by 0.89%. The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2605) increased from 8040 to 8080, a weekly increase of 0.50%, and the spot price decreased by 0.57% [4] Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of December 4, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 140 yuan/ton (down 48 yuan/ton from the previous week), 427 yuan/ton (up 54 yuan/ton), and 34 yuan/ton (up 44 yuan/ton) respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the YP spread was - 682 yuan/ton (down 300 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7] Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of November 28, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 1.02 million tons (down 0.23 million tons from the previous week), the palm oil factory commercial inventory was 65.35 million tons (down 1.36 million tons), the national soybean oil factory inventory was 117.88 million tons (down 0.11 million tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 184.25 million tons (down 1.7 million tons) [10] Palm Oil Supply - Side - As of December 5, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8864 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the gross profit against the market was - 128 yuan/ton (up 96 yuan/ton). SPPOMA data showed that the Malaysian palm oil production in November was 1.95 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38% [13] Soybean Oil Supply - Side - As of November 28, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 956.70 million tons (up 14.2 million tons from the previous week), the main oil factory soybean inventory was 733.96 million tons (up 18.97 million tons), and the oil factory operating rate was 57% (down 2% from the previous week). As of December 4, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 531.40 yuan/ton (up 1.8 yuan/ton) [16] Rapeseed Oil Supply - Side - As of November 28, 2025, the total oil factory rapeseed inventory was 0.1 million tons (the same as the previous week), and the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2260.60 yuan/ton (up 153.8 yuan/ton) [19] Demand - Side - On December 4, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil factories was 300 tons, and that of first - grade soybean oil was 3500 tons. The POGO spread was 422.74 US dollars/ton (up 46.75 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil was 8.05 million tons [22] Three Major Oil Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The Trump administration is considering extending the restrictions on imported raw materials and imported biodiesel. The US restructuring of the Energy Bureau and the revocation of renewable energy - related departments have limited the boost to US biofuel policies. The market is concerned about the progress of China - Canada trade relations. - Abroad: US soybeans are affected by South American weather and US soybean exports. South American weather in southern Brazil and Argentina will be dry before mid - December. Malaysian palm oil inventory in November may rise to a six - and - a - half - year high due to falling exports and record - high production. - Import and Pressing: The oil factory operating rate decreased by 2% from the previous week, and soybean inventory increased. The oil factory rapeseed inventory remained at 0.1 million tons. - Inventory: As of November 28, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory, palm oil factory commercial inventory, and national soybean oil factory inventory all decreased. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends, with palm oil rising 2.13%, rapeseed oil falling 0.89%, and soybean oil falling 0.57% [23] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Wait for the MPOB report for palm oil and pay attention to volatility risks; rapeseed oil will fluctuate as Australian rapeseed arrives; soybean oil will have narrow fluctuations due to ample supply. - Medium - to - long - term: Palm oil is expected to stabilize and rebound; closely monitor China - Canada trade relations for rapeseed oil; the cost center of soybean oil is expected to rise [25][26] Next Week's Focus and Risk Warnings - Biofuel policy, China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data, and weather [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, domestic economic data shows marginal weakness, corporate profits have not significantly improved, and the stock index's short - term rebound should be viewed with caution; the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is approaching, a 25 - basis - point rate cut is likely, and gold will continue to oscillate at a high level and may face a directional choice [38]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the stock index's valuation will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade situations, and the stock index will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern; concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies have subsided, the Russia - Ukraine situation is expected to ease, and the expectation of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve has been fully digested, so there is a risk of a deep adjustment in the gold market [38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Industry Data - In November 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and has been in the contraction range for 8 consecutive months. Industrial production has warmed up, but demand is weak, external demand is under great downward pressure, and the business climate of small and medium - sized enterprises remains weak [3]. Stock Index Fundamental Data - Due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure, production costs are difficult to pass on to consumers, the phenomenon of increasing revenue without increasing profits persists, and some industries are still in the active inventory reduction stage [15]. - The margin trading balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges slightly declined to 2457.665 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 663.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan [17]. Gold Fundamental Data - In October, the ADP employment in the US unexpectedly decreased, further strengthening the market's expectation of a rate cut in December. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December has risen to 89.2% [22]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have slowed down, and the inventory of New York COMEX gold has continued to decline, reflecting a cooling of the market's bullish sentiment [36]. Strategy Recommendation - In November, the official manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly but has been in the contraction range for 8 consecutive months. The domestic economic development is unbalanced with insufficient endogenous growth momentum and weak demand. The expectation of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve is strengthening, the external market is warming up, and concerns about the bursting of the technology stock bubble have temporarily eased. As the time window for the Central Economic Work Conference approaches, the market expects more growth - stabilizing policies. The stock index's short - term rebound should be viewed cautiously; the unexpected decline in US ADP employment in October has strengthened the market's expectation of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced on December 11. Given that the rate - cut expectation has been digested by the market, focus on the monetary policy statement, Powell's speech, and the change in the interest rate dot - plot. In the short term, Trump's statement about announcing the next Fed chairperson early next year has put pressure on the US dollar index, and gold is in a high - level oscillation [37]. Next Week's Focus - Important US data for November, such as imports and exports and CPI annual rate, as well as the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision [39]

有色金属周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251205 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内主要金属现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.11.28 | 2025.12.5 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | 现货指标 | 2025.11.28 | 2025.12.5 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2601 | 87430 | 92780 | 5350 | 6.12% | 平均价:1#铜:上海现货 | 87340 | 91180 | 3840 | 4.40% | | 铝 | AL2602 | 21650 | 22400 | 750 | 3.46% | 平均价:A00铝:上海现货 | 21440 | 22010 | 570 | 2.66% | | 锌 | ZN2601 | 22425 | 23305 | 880 | 3.92% | 平均价:0#锌:上海现货 | 22370 | 22990 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, PX and PTA have limited supply pressure, polyester demand remains stable, and the futures market has support at the bottom. However, the continuous weakening of the terminal restricts the rebound momentum, and the market is in a range - bound pattern. The price of ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a low level due to insufficient demand. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand drive is insufficient, and supply changes dominate the market rhythm. The polyester sector shows a differentiated trend in the fourth quarter, with PX and PTA being relatively strong and ethylene glycol having limited upward potential [33]. - For methanol, in the short - term, although the shutdown of Iranian plants and tight supply in the inland region boost the market, the high - supply and high - operation situation will continue, and the demand support is insufficient, so the upward space of the futures market is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the import is expected to decrease from mid - December to next year, but the demand increase is still weak, and the market may fluctuate widely. - For plastics, in the short - term, the social inventory continues to decline, but the supply remains high, and the demand support is weak. The market may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure may not decrease, and the overall demand is expected to weaken significantly, so the plastic market may continue to be weak [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Crude Oil Important News - Geopolitical news: Ukrainian President Zelensky plans to continue implementing the Geneva Conference results with the US. Russian President Putin said that the US delegation will visit Moscow next week, but Russia will not make concessions on key issues, and negotiating with the current Ukrainian leadership is meaningless at this stage. OPEC+ is expected to maintain the current crude oil production policy and may establish a new mechanism to assess member countries' production capacity [5]. - Crude oil supply and demand: Russian seaborne crude oil imports decreased by 23% in the week ending November 25. US sanctions on Russian oil companies have led to a reduction in purchases by major buyers. US commercial crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories all increased in the week ending November 21 [6][7]. - Market sentiment: Fed officials' dovish speeches have increased the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut, with the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut rising to 86.9%. The US dollar index is under pressure, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield has declined rapidly [6]. 3.2 Polyester Sector Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: WTI crude oil increased by 0.65% week - on - week, PX601 decreased by 1.64%, TA601 decreased by 1.36%, EG601 increased by 1.33%, PF602 decreased by 0.93%, and PR601 decreased by 0.70%. - Spot prices: Naphtha decreased by 1.24%, PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 0.96%, PTA spot decreased by 0.39%, ethylene glycol in East China increased by 0.34%, polyester staple fiber in East China decreased by 0.40%, and polyester bottle chips in East China decreased by 0.35% [9]. 3.3 Supply and Demand of Polyester Raw Materials - PX: The 800,000 - tonne unit of Sinochem Quanzhou has been shut down for maintenance, but the restart of Shanghai Petrochemical has increased supply. As of November 28, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 89.74%, and the output was 752,600 tonnes. Asian PX capacity utilization decreased slightly to 79.4%. Next week, supply is expected to decline slightly, and PX processing fees have bottom - end support [14]. - PTA: The restart of Shenghong's unit was offset by the maintenance of Yisheng Ningbo and Sichuan Energy Investment units, resulting in a slight decrease in supply this week. As of November 28, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 71.92%, and the output was 1.3747 million tonnes. Social inventory continued to decline. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly [17]. - Ethylene glycol: The shutdown of Sinochem Quanzhou's unit and the delay of Puyang's restart led to a slight decrease in supply this week. As of November 28, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 62.67%. The restart of Hongsifang's unit and the planned restart of Huayi's unit are expected to increase supply next week, but supply is expected to decline in December [19]. 3.4 Polyester End and Terminal Situation - Polyester end: The weekly average polyester operating rate was 87.38%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points week - on - week. - Terminal: As of November 28, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 66.93%, a decrease of 0.76 percentage points. The order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 13.04 days, a decrease of 0.50 days, and the坯布 inventory days were 23.45 days, an increase of 0.60 days [20][30]. 3.5 Methanol and Polyethylene Data - Price trends: The futures price of MA2601 increased by 6.54%, and the spot price of methanol in Taicang increased by 3.71%. The futures price of L2601 increased by 0.28%, while the spot prices of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE decreased [35]. - Methanol supply: As of November 27, the domestic methanol operating rate was 89.09%, and the output was 2.0235 million tonnes. This week, some units resumed production, and next week, Jiutai New Materials plans to resume production [42]. - Methanol demand: The overall downstream operating rate increased slightly, but MTO operating rate has limited room for further increase, and traditional downstream is in the off - season. The 1.2 - million - tonne acetic acid unit of Celanese has been shut down for maintenance since November 28 [45]. - Methanol inventory: As of November 26, the port inventory was 1.3635 million tonnes, a decrease of 7.83%, and the inland inventory was 373,700 tonnes, an increase of 4.19%. Iranian units have entered the gas - restricted shutdown state [48]. - Plastic supply: As of November 27, the domestic plastic operating rate was 84.51%, and the output was 684,800 tonnes. This week, some units were under maintenance, and some units resumed production. Next week, no units are planned for maintenance, and some units are expected to resume production [51]. - Plastic demand: As of November 27, the plastic downstream operating rate was 44.3%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points. The demand for greenhouse films is expected to decline, and the packaging film is still digesting previous orders, with a decreasing scale [55]. - Plastic inventory: As of November 26, the social plastic inventory was 471,100 tonnes, a decrease of 3.05%, and the two - oil enterprise inventory was 384,000 tonnes, a decrease of 9.43%. Manufacturers are actively reducing inventory [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the expected increase in import costs boosts the market. With a loose supply side, attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rebound in soybean meal. For rapeseed meal, although supply shortages are intensifying, the rigid demand is declining, so focus on the customs clearance of Australian rapeseed. In the medium - to - long - term, changes in trade relations remain the key driver for the supply side of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [37][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The closing prices and changes of various domestic feed and livestock futures and spot prices from November 20 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, the closing price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract rose from 3017 to 3055, with a weekly increase of 1.26%; the RM601 rapeseed meal futures contract rose from 2412 to 2469, with a weekly increase of 2.36% [4]. Fundamentals Cost Side - In the future 6 - 10 days, the temperatures in the main soybean - producing states in the US will be lower than normal, and most areas will have higher rainfall. Since October 30, China has purchased about 3 million tons of US soybeans, and there are market rumors that China purchased at least 10 cargoes of soybeans on Tuesday, awaiting confirmation. Agroconsult expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record 178.1 million tons. As of November 27, the soybean planting rate in Argentina's 2025/26 season was 39%, compared to 25% last week and 47% in the same period in 2024 [7]. Supply - In October, China imported zero soybeans from the US for the second consecutive month, but the total soybean imports reached a record high of 9.48 million tons. China imported 7.12 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, a year - on - year increase of 28.8%, accounting for 75.1% of the total imports; and 1.57 million tons from Argentina, a year - on - year increase of 15.4%. Despite zero imports from the US in October, China's total imports from the US this year still reached 16.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.5% [7]. Demand - Last week, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills rebounded. As of the week of November 21, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 2.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 260,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons, and an increase of 520,000 tons compared to the average of the past three years. It is expected that the oil mill operating rate will remain high this week, with a crushing volume of about 2.3 million tons. On November 27, the domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal sales recovered, with a trading volume of 190,500 tons, an increase of 85,900 tons from the previous day [7]. Inventory - As of the end of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.78 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from last week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.145 million tons, an increase of 146,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 14.66% [7]. Supply Side - Import - As of November 28, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was $500.00 per ton, an increase of $9 per ton from last week; the CNF price of imported US West Coast soybeans was $496.00 per ton, an increase of $4 per ton from last week [14]. Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week of November 28, the soybean pressing profit was - 60.50 yuan per ton, an increase of 42.55 yuan per ton from last week. As of the week of November 21, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.3254 million tons, a decrease of 98,000 tons from last week. As of November 21, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 59%, a decrease of 3 percentage points from last week [20]. Inventory Side - As of November 28, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.3912 million tons, an increase of 153,300 tons from last week, at a very high level in the past five years. As of November 21, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0565 million tons, an increase of 102,000 tons from last week, also at a very high level in the past five years [26]. Demand Side - As of November 21, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 232,700 tons, an increase of 155,800 tons from last week, at a medium - to - high level in the past five years [31]. Rapeseed Meal Supply Side - The report presents data on rapeseed imports, rapeseed meal production, and expected rapeseed arrivals at domestic crushing plants [33]. Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory Side - The report shows data on rapeseed meal's initial inventory, supply, demand,提货量 (delivery volume), apparent consumption, inventory, and trading volume in China [35]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, for soybean meal, pay attention to the sustainability of the rebound; for rapeseed meal, focus on the customs clearance of Australian rapeseed. In the medium - to - long - term, changes in trade relations are the key drivers for the supply side of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal. Next week, focus on factors such as production area weather, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [37][38][39].