Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on the black series released by New Era Futures Research on November 7, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - **Long - term**: In the steel industry, with the arrival of the off - season, weak real - estate data, and environmental restrictions, both supply and demand are expected to weaken. For iron ore, supply is expected to be looser, and the fundamentals will deteriorate. In the glass and soda ash industry, glass supply reduction slightly boosts sentiment but demand improvement is limited. Soda ash has supply decline but high inventory and weak terminal consumption [64][68] - **Short - term**: Black series varieties showed a downward trend this week. Steel products like rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are expected to be weak with potential for fluctuations. Glass and soda ash will have range - bound oscillations [65][69] Summary by Section Black Series Weekly Market Review - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The closing price of the futures main contract dropped from 3106 on October 31 to 3034 on November 7, a decrease of 72 (-2.3%). The spot price was 3190, and the basis was 156 [2] - **Hot - rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The futures main contract price fell from 3308 to 3245, a decrease of 63 (-1.9%). The spot price was 3260, and the basis was 15 [2] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The futures price decreased from 800 to 760, a drop of 39.5 (-4.9%). The spot price was 787, and the basis was 26 [2] - **Coke (J2601)**: The futures price went from 1777 to 1756, a decrease of 20.5 (-1.2%). The spot price was 1720, and the basis was - 36 [2] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The futures price dropped from 1286 to 1270, a decrease of 16 (-1.2%). The spot price was 1530, and the basis was 260 [2] - **Glass (FG601)**: The futures price increased from 1083 to 1091, an increase of 8 (0.7%). The spot price was 1190, and the basis was 99 [2] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The futures price decreased from 1225 to 1210, a decrease of 15 (-1.2%). The spot price was 1262, and the basis was 52 [2] Rebar - **Profit**: On November 6, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was - 51 yuan/ton [6] - **Supply**: As of November 7, the blast - furnace operating rate was 83.13%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points. The daily average pig - iron output was 2.3422 million tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons. The rebar output was 2.0854 million tons, a decrease of 40,500 tons [13] - **Demand**: In the week of November 7, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.1852 million tons, a decrease of 136,600 tons. As of November 6, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 110,265 tons [18] - **Inventory**: In the week of November 7, the social inventory of rebar was 4.257 million tons, a decrease of 51,100 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 1.6684 million tons, a decrease of 48,700 tons [23] Iron Ore - **Supply**: In the week of October 31, the global shipment volume of iron ore was 3.2138 million tons, a decrease of 174,600 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3.3141 million tons, an increase of 1.2298 million tons [28] - **Inventory**: In the week of November 7, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 15.62413 million tons, an increase of 351,200 tons, and the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 9.00994 million tons, an increase of 160,080 tons [33] - **Demand**: In the week of November 7, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 335,550 tons, an increase of 4330 tons. As of November 6, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 115,400 tons [38] Float Glass - **Supply**: In the week of November 7, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 222, a decrease of 4. The weekly output was 1,126,085 tons, a decrease of 2840 tons. As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate was 79.56%, and the operating rate was 75% [43] - **Inventory**: In the week of November 7, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 63.136 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 2.654 million weight - boxes compared to November 6. The available inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days [48] Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of November 7, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 85.67%, a decrease of 1.22 percentage points. The output was 746,800 tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons [52] - **Inventory**: As of November 7, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.7142 million tons, an increase of 12,200 tons [57] - **Sales - to - production Ratio**: As of November 7, the sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 98.36%, a decrease of 1.65 percentage points [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the easing of Sino-US trade relations, the market's optimistic sentiment towards demand weakened this week, leading to a decline in US soybeans from their high levels. Supported by import costs, soybean meal showed relative strength. Driven by Sino-Canadian trade sentiment, rapeseed meal rose strongly [33]. - In the short term, the weakening demand expectation caused US soybeans to fall from their high levels. There is still supply pressure in the domestic market, and the upward momentum of soybean meal is waning. The rapeseed meal supply is in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and the development of Sino-Canadian relations [33]. - In the long - term, changes in trade relations remain the key driver for the supply of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [34]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends of Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Goods - The closing prices of the main futures contracts of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, and eggs increased this week, with week - on - week increases of 2.47%, 6.16%, 2.04%, and 2.22% respectively. The closing price of the main futures contract of live pigs increased by 0.51%. The spot prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and corn increased, with week - on - week increases of 1.34%, 4.76%, and 1.17% respectively. The spot price of live pigs decreased by 4.40%, and the spot price of eggs increased by 0.34% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost - end - The weather in the Midwestern United States is conducive to the remaining harvest work. The US Department of Agriculture will release crop production reports and global agricultural supply - demand forecasts on November 14. Brokerage firm StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record 178.9 million tons. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Argentina to harvest 48.5 million tons of soybeans this year, and farmers have sown 4.4% of the expected 17.6 million hectares [6]. 3.2.2 Supply - China's soybean imports in October reached a new high for the month at 9.482 million tons, but decreased by 26.3% compared to September. The cumulative imports from January to October were 95.682 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [6]. 3.2.3 Demand - As of the end of the 44th week (November 1), the average operating rate of domestic oil mills was 61.59%, a decrease of 4.83% from the previous week. The total soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 2.311 million tons, a decrease of 0.1813 million tons from the previous week. The expected soybean processing volume for this week is slightly reduced to 2.2019 million tons, and the operating rate is 58.69%. On November 6, the trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was light, with a sharp drop of 78% to 38,600 tons [6]. 3.2.4 Inventory - In the 44th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of domestic main oil mills was 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.39%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.6005 million tons, an increase of 29.06%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons from the previous week, an increase of 9.33%, and a year - on - year increase of 168,900 tons, an increase of 17.16% [6]. 3.3 Supply - end Analysis 3.3.1 Import - As of November 6, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans for import was $500 per ton, an increase of $7 per ton from the previous week. The CNF price of US West soybeans for import was $506 per ton, an increase of $15 per ton from the previous week [10]. 3.3.2 Pressing - As of the week of November 6, the soybean crushing profit was -$79.25 per ton, an increase of $43.05 per ton from the previous week. As of the week of October 31, the weekly soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.1161 million tons, a decrease of 269,500 tons from the previous week. As of October 31, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 54%, a decrease of 7 percentage points from the previous week [15]. 3.4 Inventory - end Analysis - As of November 7, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 7.8265 million tons, a decrease of 575,700 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a relatively high level in the past five years. As of October 31, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0593 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills is at a relatively high level in the past five years [21]. 3.5 Demand - end Analysis - As of October 31, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 85,700 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a medium level in the past five years [25]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Analysis 3.6.1 Supply - end - The core contradiction in the rapeseed meal market is the tight supply. The Sino - Canadian trade relationship has not eased, resulting in a continuous interruption of Canadian rapeseed imports. Domestic oil mills have shut down, and inventories are almost zero, with the supply in a tight balance. Although the procurement of Australian rapeseed has restarted, the actual supply will not be available until the first quarter of next year, unable to make up for the shortfall in the fourth quarter of this year [33]. 3.6.2 Demand and Inventory - end - The demand side is weak due to the off - season of aquaculture and the substitution advantage of soybean meal, which restricts the upward space of prices [33]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - In the short term, the upward momentum of soybean meal is waning, and attention should be paid to the inventory changes and the development of Sino - Canadian relations for rapeseed meal. In the long - term, changes in trade relations are the key drivers for the supply of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [33][34]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The focus is on the weather in production areas, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, China's import growth rate declined and exports turned negative year-on-year, indicating that the foundation of China's economic recovery is not solid, domestic demand remains weak, and external demand is under increasing downward pressure. The export will face downward pressure in the future. The stock index should be cautiously viewed for short - term rebounds and the risk of a new decline should be watched out for. Gold may be under short - term pressure and has a risk of deep adjustment in the medium - long term [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic Data - In October 2025, China's imports increased by 1% year - on - year, with the growth rate dropping by 6.4 percentage points from the previous month, and exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, the first negative growth since March, reflecting weakening domestic demand and increasing downward pressure on external demand [3][4]. 2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - From January to September 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size turned positive year - on - year, and the growth rate of finished product inventories rebounded. However, after removing the impact of the low base effect in the previous year, corporate profitability remained weak, and enterprises were still in the stage of active inventory reduction [16]. - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose slightly to 24725.92 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net withdrawal of 1572.2 billion yuan [18]. 3. Gold Fundamental Data - Many Fed officials made hawkish remarks, believing that the US economy is still robust, the inflation risk has not been eliminated, and caution is needed regarding future interest rate cuts. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has returned above the 4% mark [28]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures are slowing down, and the inventory of New York COMEX gold is continuously decreasing, reflecting a cooling of the market's bullish sentiment [39]. 4. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term: Due to the marginal weakening of domestic economic data, the stock index should be cautiously viewed for short - term rebounds. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have further dampened the market's expectation of another interest rate cut in December, and gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound [40]. - Medium - long term: The valuation of the stock index will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, and the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite. Gold has a risk of deep adjustment due to factors such as the cooling of the expectation of another Fed interest rate cut in December [40].

Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on non-ferrous metals (aluminum) by New Era Futures Research, dated November 7, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In the short term, alumina is expected to run weakly and fluctuate, while Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly with fluctuations. In the long term, in the context of positive macro - sentiment, Shanghai aluminum is expected to run strongly with fluctuations, and alumina will run weakly and fluctuate before large - scale production cuts [17] Summary by Directory Aluminum Raw Material Supply - As of October 31, the port inventory of bauxite was 27.3584 million tons, a decrease of 359,300 tons from the previous week. As of the end of September, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 23.86 million tons, at a historical high [6] - Overseas bauxite supply is still sufficient, and with high inventory, the price of Guinea bauxite has declined recently, weakening cost support [16] Alumina Supply - As of November 7, the operating rate of alumina enterprises was 85.25%, slightly down from the previous week. The total inventory of alumina was 4.788 million tons, an increase of 56,000 tons from the previous week [9] - The domestic alumina operating capacity is at a high level, but the weekly output decreased by 4,000 tons to 1.735 million tons due to the reduction of the roasting furnace load rate of some enterprises. The supply - over - demand pressure of alumina still exists, and it is expected to continue to run weakly and fluctuate [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - As of the end of October, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 98.24%, remaining at a high level. As of September, China's primary aluminum production was 3.644 million tons, imports were 246,800 tons, and inventory was 591,000 tons [12] - As of November 7, LME aluminum inventory was 548,400 tons, a decrease of 9,700 tons from the previous week; SHFE aluminum inventory was 113,300 tons, a decrease of 239 tons from the previous week; COMEX aluminum inventory was 6,675 tons, an increase of 25 tons from the previous week. Overall, electrolytic aluminum inventory showed a destocking trend this week [14] - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is basically stable. Due to environmental protection restrictions, high aluminum prices, and the end of the peak season, the terminal demand is expected to weaken, and the proportion of molten aluminum may decline. In the context of positive macro - sentiment, the demand support for electrolytic aluminum is weakened, but the supply is expected to be tight due to overseas production cuts, and it is expected to run strongly with fluctuations [16] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Alumina runs weakly and fluctuates; Shanghai aluminum runs strongly with fluctuations. - Medium - and long - term: Pay attention to the pace of US dollar interest rate cuts. In the context of positive macro - sentiment, Shanghai aluminum runs strongly with fluctuations; alumina runs weakly and fluctuates before large - scale production cuts [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major domestic oils showed mixed trends this week. Palm oil prices declined, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices increased. Market sentiment is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, overseas supply, and demand [4][27]. - Different short - and long - term trends are expected for each oil. Palm oil may be weak in the short - term and rebound in the long - term; soybean oil will fluctuate widely in the short - term and its price center may move up in the long - term; rapeseed oil will be slightly strong in the short - term and maintain a wide - range oscillation in the long - term [30][35][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From October 31 to November 7, 2025, palm oil futures closed down 1.19%, with a spot price decline of 0.66%; soybean oil futures rose 0.69%, with a spot price increase of 0.60%; rapeseed oil futures rose 1.18%, with a spot price increase of 1.42% [4]. 3.2 Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 184 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous week), 317 yuan/ton (an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 28 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of November 7, 2025, the YP spread was - 476 yuan/ton (an increase of 160 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of October 31, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 3.80 tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills decreased to 59.28 tons; the national soybean oil inventory of oil mills decreased to 121.58 tons. The total inventory of the three major oils decreased to 184.66 tons [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis 3.4.1 Palm Oil Supply - As of November 6, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8973 yuan/ton (a decrease of 101 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the import gross profit was - 281 yuan/ton (an increase of 57 yuan/ton from the previous week). From November 1 - 5, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 6.80% month - on - month [13]. 3.4.2 Soybean Oil Supply - As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 962.90 tons (a decrease of 10.2 tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory of major national oil mills was 710.79 tons (a decrease of 40.4 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 54% (a decrease of 7% from the previous week). As of November 6, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 550.35 yuan/ton (an increase of 54.55 yuan/ton from the previous week) [18]. 3.4.3 Rapeseed Oil Supply - As of October 31, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 1 ton (a decrease of 1 ton from the previous week). As of November 7, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2346.20 yuan/ton (an increase of 244 yuan/ton from the previous week) [23]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On November 6, 2025, the trading volume of major palm oil mills was 0 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 29,800 tons, and the POGO spread was 321.99 dollars/ton (a decrease of 46.5 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 805 tons [26]. 3.6 Three Major Oil Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the further clarification of the US biodiesel policy, the overall situation of China - US trade negotiations is positive, and the progress of China - Canada trade relations is being watched. - Overseas: Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA supply - demand report was not released. The US soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the market supply pressure is emerging. The October palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 12.31% month - on - month to 2.07 million tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate decreased by 7% from the previous week, and the soybean and rapeseed inventories decreased. - Inventory: As of October 31, the inventories of the three major oils all decreased. - Spot: The spot prices of oils showed mixed trends this week [27]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendations 3.7.1 Palm Oil - Short - term: Weak operation, pay attention to market volatility risks after the release of the MPOB report next week. - Long - term: After bottom - hunting in oscillation, the futures price is expected to stabilize and rebound [29][30]. 3.7.2 Soybean Oil - Short - term: Wide - range oscillation, waiting for the details of China's soybean purchases from the US. - Long - term: The price center is expected to move up, but the upward space and rhythm will be affected by multiple factors [34][35]. 3.7.3 Rapeseed Oil - Short - term: Slightly strong oscillation. - Long - term: Maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern under the tight supply - demand balance [37][38].

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Shi Lei [2] - Research Assistant: Shi Zhuoran [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - **Mid - to - Long - Term**: For steel and iron ore, the "Golden September and Silver October" period is over, macro - level positive impacts are weakening, and the market is returning to fundamental influences. With increasing environmental restrictions and approaching winter storage, there is an expectation of a mild rebound in steel and iron ore futures, but trading should be based on an oscillatory mindset. For glass and soda ash, glass inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, with stable supply and weak downstream demand, maintaining a weak pattern. Soda ash has a slight reduction in inventory, weak downstream demand, and a supply - surplus situation, with the main contract continuing a weak oscillatory trend [62][66] - **Short - Term**: For black series products, influenced by the "14th Five - Year Plan" on new infrastructure and stable real estate policies and the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the overall market showed an oscillatory upward trend this week, but cooled on Friday. Steel, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore are expected to oscillate, with risks of repeated fluctuations. Glass and soda ash followed the sector up and then down, with prices under pressure, and short - term trading should be based on fundamental logic [63][67] Summary by Directory Black Series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Futures Closing Price (10/24/2025) | Futures Closing Price (10/31/2025) | Change | Percentage Change | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (RB2601) | 3046.0 | 3106.0 | 60.0 | 2.0% | 3230.0 | 124.0 | | Hot - rolled Coil (HC2601) | 3250.0 | 3308.0 | 58.0 | 1.8% | 3330.0 | 22.0 | | Iron Ore (I2601) | 771.0 | 800.0 | 29.0 | 3.8% | 814.0 | 14.0 | | Coke (J2601) | 1757.5 | 1777.0 | 19.5 | 1.1% | 1670.0 | - 107.0 | | Coking Coal (JM2601) | 1248.5 | 1286.0 | 37.5 | 3.0% | 1450.0 | 164.0 | | Glass (FG601) | 1092.0 | 1083.0 | - 9.0 | - 0.8% | 1210.0 | 127.0 | | Soda Ash (SA601) | 1229.0 | 1225.0 | - 4.0 | - 0.3% | 1270.6 | 45.6 | [3] Rebar - **Blast Furnace Profit**: On October 30, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 58 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply Side**: As of October 31, the blast furnace operating rate was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons; the rebar output was 2.1259 million tons, an increase of 55,200 tons [12] - **Demand Side**: In the week of October 31, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.3218 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 61,700 tons; as of October 30, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 90,196 tons [16] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 31, the social inventory of rebar was 4.3081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 66,800 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.7171 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 129,200 tons [21] Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of October 24, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.3884 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54,900 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.0843 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 592,000 tons [26] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 31, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 15.27293 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 163,440 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.84986 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 229,330 tons [31] - **Demand Side**: In the week of October 31, the average daily discharge volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 331,220 tons, a week - on - week increase of 91,500 tons; as of October 30, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 74,000 tons [36] Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of October 31, the number of operating float glass production lines was 226; the weekly output was 1,128,925 tons, unchanged from the previous week; as of October 30, the capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, unchanged; the operating rate was 76.35%, unchanged [41] - **Inventory**: In the week of October 31, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 65.79 million weight boxes, a decrease of 823,000 weight boxes compared to October 24; the available days of in - plant inventory were 28 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 days [46] Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of October 31, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.89%, an increase of 1.95 percentage points from the previous week; the output was 757,600 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from the previous week [50] - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.702 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons [55] - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of October 31, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 100.01%, a week - on - week increase of 0.23 percentage points [59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Polyester Sector - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation has no significant improvement, the rebound momentum of the polyester sector is limited, and the oil price affects the market fluctuation rhythm. It is necessary to pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting results [30]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is expected to increase, the demand peak season is not significant, and the polyester sector is under overall pressure [30]. Methanol Sector - In the short - term, with the continuation of high supply, unresolved high port inventory, and weakened main demand support, methanol may continue to decline in a volatile manner [49]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the inflection point of port inventory is the core point of the market. If the medium - to - long - term signals are positive, methanol may rebound [49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil Information - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% on October 30. The outlook for December's rate action is uncertain, and market risk appetite has weakened [5]. - China and the US reached a joint arrangement on economic and trade issues, which helps improve oil demand expectations [5]. - Russia's crude oil exports in October are expected to remain at about 2.33 million barrels per day, alleviating concerns about supply disruptions [5]. - As of the week ending October 24, US crude oil production increased, and commercial crude and refined product inventories decreased. OPEC+ may continue to increase production [6]. Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 2.40% week - on - week, while PX601, TA601, PF512, and PR601 futures prices increased [8]. - The spot prices of PX, PTA, and polyester products showed different changes, with PX and PTA prices rising [8]. Supply and Demand of Each Product - **PX**: Domestic PX capacity utilization and production increased this week. Next week, a 700,000 - tonne device of Dalian Fujia will restart, and supply is expected to continue to increase [15]. - **PTA**: Domestic PTA supply increased this week. Although some devices reduced production, new devices are about to be put into operation, and supply is expected to increase slightly next week [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic supply decreased this week, but is expected to increase next week. Port inventory increased slightly this week and may continue to accumulate next week [18]. - **Polyester End**: The average weekly polyester start - up rate increased slightly by 0.03 percentage points [19]. - **Polyester Inventory**: Short - fiber inventory increased slightly, while long - fiber inventory continued to decline [22]. - **Terminal**: As of October 31, the start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased, the order days of weaving enterprises increased, and the inventory of grey cloth decreased [28]. Methanol Sector Price Trends - The futures price of MA2601 decreased by 4.05% week - on - week, and the spot prices of methanol and its downstream products showed different changes [33]. Cost and Profit - The profits of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol production continued to decline, while the profit of natural gas - based production was basically flat. The downstream gross profit continued to decline, and MTO remained in a deep loss state [39]. Supply - As of October 30, the domestic methanol start - up rate was 86.7%, and production increased. This week, the number of returning devices was greater than that of overhauled devices. Next week, some devices are planned to resume production, and there are no new overhaul plans [42]. Demand - Affected by profit squeeze, the overall demand start - up load continued to weaken. The MTO start - up load decreased slightly, and there is still an overhaul expectation in the next period. The traditional downstream was generally flat [45]. Inventory - As of October 29, port inventory decreased slightly, while inland inventory increased. Port inventory remained stable at a high level, and inland inventory accumulated but was still at a low level compared to previous years [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Rising import costs drive up domestic prices. For soybean meal, wait for more details on US soybean purchases; for rapeseed meal, supply tightens but demand also decreases significantly, lacking continuous positive fundamentals [39]. - Medium - to long - term: Global soybean supply is abundant, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean sector [40]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Livestock Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Soybean Meal**: The closing price of the M2601 futures contract on October 30, 2025, was 2994 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton (1.91%) from October 23. The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong was 2980 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.36%) [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The RM601 futures contract closed at 2401 yuan/ton on October 30, 2025, up 62 yuan/ton (2.65%) from October 23. The average spot price in China was 2520 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton (2.44%) [4]. - **Corn**: The C2601 futures contract closed at 2111 yuan/ton on October 30, 2025, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.36%) from October 23. The summary price at Bayuquan Port was 2140 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-1.83%) [4]. - **Pigs**: The LH2601 futures contract closed at 11880 yuan/ton on October 30, 2025, down 320 yuan/ton (-2.62%) from October 23. The average slaughter price of commercial pigs in Henan was 12.49 yuan/kg, up 0.62 yuan/kg (2.25%) [4]. - **Eggs**: The JD2511 futures contract closed at 3157 yuan/ton on October 30, 2025, up 130 yuan/ton (4.29%) from October 23. The average price in the main producing areas of China was 2.93 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg (2.45%) [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - end**: US Midwest has sporadic showers, and cold air may disrupt harvesting and field operations. US soybean export inspections are at the lower end of market expectations, down 33% from the previous week and 60% from the same period in 2024. Brazil's soybean exports in October 2025 are estimated at 7 million tons, lower than the previous estimate but still up 58.0% from last year. The first shipment of Argentine soybean meal has arrived, but its impact on prices is limited [10]. - **Supply - end**: In September 2025, China's soybean imports were 12.869 million tons, up 4.8% month - on - month and 13.2% year - on - year [10]. - **Demand - end**: As of the week of October 25, 2025, the national soybean crushing volume rebounded to a high level, and the提货量 decreased, leading to an increase in soybean meal inventory. On October 29, the total soybean meal trading volume of major domestic oil mills was 53,500 tons, down 59,900 tons from the previous day [10]. - **Inventory - end**: In the 43rd week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, while the soybean meal inventory increased. The soybean inventory was 7.5129 million tons, down 174,100 tons (2.26%) from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0546 million tons, up 78,400 tons (8.03%) from the previous week [10]. 3.3 Supply - end - Import - As of October 30, the CNF price of Brazilian soybeans was 489.00 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The CNF price of US West soybeans was 482.00 US dollars/ton, up 28 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18]. 3.4 Supply - end - Pressing - As of the week of October 30, the soybean pressing profit was - 130.15 yuan/ton, down 1.65 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of October 24, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.3856 million tons, up 86,800 tons from the previous week. As of October 24, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate was 61%, up 3 percentage points from the previous week [24]. 3.5 Inventory - end - As of October 30, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.3496 million tons, up 236,900 tons from the previous week, at a very high level in the past five years. As of October 24, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0044 million tons, up 41,300 tons from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the past five years [28]. 3.6 Demand - end - As of October 24, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal of domestic mainstream oil mills was 85,000 tons, down 37,300 tons from the previous week, at a medium level in the past five years [32]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Supply - end No specific data - based summary content is provided other than the graphs related to rapeseed import quantity, production, and sowing area [35]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory - end No specific data - based summary content is provided other than the graphs related to inventory, supply, demand, trading volume, and consumption [38]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term, wait for more details on US soybean purchases. Medium - to long - term, the continuous upward momentum is limited due to abundant global supply. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term, supply is tight but demand is weak, lacking continuous positive fundamentals. 3.10 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning The focus is on产区 weather, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [41].

1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The aluminum market shows different trends in the short - and long - term. In the short term, alumina is expected to have a weak and volatile operation, while Shanghai aluminum will operate in a high - level oscillation. In the long term, with the positive macro - sentiment, Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate with a stronger tendency [36]. - The polysilicon market is characterized by "supply contraction expectation leading and divergence between futures and spot trends". In the short term, it will maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend, and in the long term, the industry's over - supply pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and actual demand [37][39]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures主力合约 (CU2512) price decreased from 87720 yuan on October 24, 2025, to 87010 yuan on October 31, 2025, a weekly decrease of 710 yuan (- 0.81%). The spot price increased from 86400 yuan to 87550 yuan, a weekly increase of 1150 yuan (1.33%) [2]. - Aluminum: The futures主力合约 (AL2512) price increased from 21225 yuan to 21300 yuan, a weekly increase of 75 yuan (0.35%). The spot price increased from 21110 yuan to 21270 yuan, a weekly increase of 160 yuan (0.76%) [2]. - Zinc: The futures主力合约 (ZN2512) price remained unchanged at 22355 yuan. The spot price increased from 22200 yuan to 22290 yuan, a weekly increase of 90 yuan (0.41%) [2]. - Lead: The futures主力合约 (PB2512) price decreased from 17595 yuan to 17390 yuan, a weekly decrease of 205 yuan (- 1.17%). The spot price decreased from 17300 yuan to 17225 yuan, a weekly decrease of 75 yuan (- 0.43%) [2]. - Nickel: The futures主力合约 (NI2512) price decreased from 122150 yuan to 120590 yuan, a weekly decrease of 1560 yuan (- 1.28%). The spot price decreased from 122900 yuan to 121950 yuan, a weekly decrease of 950 yuan (- 0.77%) [2]. - Alumina: The futures主力合约 (AO2601) price decreased from 2810 yuan to 2793 yuan, a weekly decrease of 17 yuan (- 0.60%). The spot price decreased from 2950 yuan to 2930 yuan, a weekly decrease of 20 yuan (- 0.68%) [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures主力合约 (SI2601) price increased from 8920 yuan to 9100 yuan, a weekly increase of 180 yuan (2.02%). The spot price increased from 9400 yuan to 9500 yuan, a weekly increase of 100 yuan (1.06%) [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures主力合约 (LC2601) price increased from 79520 yuan to 80780 yuan, a weekly increase of 1260 yuan (1.58%). The spot price decreased from 75400 yuan to 73800 yuan, a weekly decrease of 1600 yuan (- 2.12%) [2]. - Polysilicon: The futures主力合约 (PS2601) price increased from 52305 yuan to 56410 yuan, a weekly increase of 4105 yuan (7.85%). The spot price decreased from 52980 yuan to 52250 yuan, a weekly decrease of 730 yuan (- 1.38%) [2]. 3.2 Copper Inventory Trends in Major Exchanges - As of October 31, the SHFE copper inventory was 116,100 tons, an increase of 11,300 tons (10.78%) compared to last week. The LME copper inventory was 134,600 tons, a decrease of 1800 tons (- 1.32%) compared to last week. The COMEX copper inventory was 347,500 tons, an increase of 1100 tons (+ 10.78%) compared to last week [12][13]. 3.3 Zinc Inventory and Processing Fees - As of October 24, the main port TC of zinc concentrate was 105 dollars/ton, the same as on October 17. As of October 31, the LME zinc inventory was 34,900 tons, a decrease of 200 tons compared to last week, and the SHFE zinc inventory was 67,800 tons, an increase of 2000 tons compared to last week [22]. 3.4 Aluminum Inventory and Market Situation - As of October 31, the LME aluminum inventory was 558,100 tons, an increase of 84,900 tons compared to last week. The SHFE aluminum inventory was 113,600 tons, a decrease of 4600 tons compared to last week. The COMEX aluminum inventory was 6650 metric tons, a decrease of 201 metric tons compared to last week. Overall, the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to decrease, while the overseas inventory increased [32][33]. - Alumina futures prices remained in a weak and volatile pattern, and electrolytic aluminum futures prices were in a high - level oscillation pattern. The supply of bauxite overseas is sufficient, and the cost support is weakened. The domestic alumina production capacity is at a high level, but the production in some northern regions has decreased. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, but the demand is restricted by high prices, environmental protection policies, and the end of the peak season [35]. 3.5 Polysilicon Market Situation - The polysilicon market shows "supply contraction expectation leading and divergence between futures and spot trends". The futures market is strengthened by policy expectations, with the main 2601 contract rising 7.85% weekly, while the spot market is still sluggish. Policy - wise, the "establishment of a reserve platform" expectation supports the futures price, but details are unclear. Fundamentally, supply is expected to tighten, with a planned production cut in the southwest in November. The industry inventory is slightly accumulating, and demand is weak [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Palm oil is expected to continue its weak performance next week. In the long - term, after a bottom - seeking process, palm oil futures prices are likely to stabilize and rebound considering the upcoming seasonal production reduction cycle in the producing areas and the long - term support of biodiesel policies [32]. - The market is waiting for further clarification of the US biodiesel policy, and the overall situation of China - US trade negotiations is positive. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From October 24 to October 31, 2025, the futures closing prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil decreased by 3.92%, 3.47%, and 0.81% respectively. The corresponding spot prices decreased by 2.81%, 2.19%, and 0.48% respectively [4]. Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of October 30, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 184 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week), 314 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 22 yuan/ton (an increase of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of October 31, 2025, the YP spread was - 636 yuan/ton (an increase of 292 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of October 24, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 4.20 million tons (a decrease of 1.0 million tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 60.71 million tons (an increase of 3.14 million tons from the previous week), and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 125.03 million tons (an increase of 2.63 million tons from the previous week). The total inventory of the three major oils was 189.94 million tons (an increase of 4.77 million tons from the previous week) [10]. Supply - side Analysis - **Palm Oil**: In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons. From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.78% month - on - month. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 1% to 2.543 million tons [16]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the soybean inventory in national ports was 9.731 million tons (a decrease of 0.153 million tons from the previous week), and the soybean inventory in major oil mills was 7.5129 million tons (a decrease of 0.1741 million tons from the previous week). The oil mill operating rate was 61% (an increase of 3% from the previous week). As of October 31, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 604.90 yuan/ton (an increase of 7.1 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 2 million tons (a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous week). As of October 31, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2590.20 yuan/ton (a decrease of 480 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22]. Demand - side Analysis - On October 30, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 1700 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 8700 tons. The POGO spread was 368.49 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [27]. Three Major Oil Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified. The overall situation of China - US trade negotiations is positive, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [29]. - Foreign Factors: Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA supply - demand report for this month was not released. The US soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the market supply pressure is emerging. Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, higher than the market expectation of 2.15 million tons. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association predicts that this year's palm oil production will increase by 10%, higher than the market expectation [29]. - Import and Pressing: The oil mill operating rate increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 2 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous week [29]. - Inventory: As of October 24, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 4.20 million tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 60.71 million tons, and the national soybean oil inventory in oil mills increased to 125.03 million tons [29]. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of the three major oils all decreased. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 2.81%, that of soybean oil decreased by 0.48%, and that of rapeseed oil decreased by 2.19% [29]. Strategy Recommendation - **Palm Oil**: This week, palm oil futures fell 3.92%. Considering the increase in Malaysia's palm oil production and the call to halt Indonesia's B50 plan, the short - term outlook is weak, but in the long - term, it may rebound. - **Soybean Oil**: This week, soybean oil futures fell 0.81%. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, but the China - US relationship is optimistic. The domestic soybean inventory pressure is still large in the short - term, but the cost side has certain support. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fell 3.47%. The fundamentals have not changed much, and it has entered the de - stocking cycle. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [31].