Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coal price is expected to slow down its upward trend in the short term. The supply is tightening as the coal production in major producing areas is running at a low level, and the coal prices at ports have been rising continuously. However, with the decrease in power plant consumption and the relatively stable port inventory, the upward momentum of coal prices is expected to weaken [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Review - On November 11, the port thermal coal market remained in a stalemate, with the supply and demand sides in a continuous game. The prices of different calorific value coal types in various regions are as follows: 5500 - kcal coal is priced at 840 - 850 yuan/ton in ports, 590 - 630 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia for non - power enterprises, 620 - 670 yuan/ton in Shanxi for non - power enterprises, and 890 - 900 yuan/ton in Jiangnei ports; 5000 - kcal coal is priced at 740 - 750 yuan/ton in ports, 500 - 540 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia for non - power enterprises, 550 - 600 yuan/ton in Shanxi for non - power enterprises, and 790 - 800 yuan/ton in Jiangnei ports; 4500 - kcal coal is priced at 640 - 650 yuan/ton in ports, 435 - 475 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia for non - power enterprises, and 470 - 520 yuan/ton in Shanxi for non - power enterprises. The price of 6000 - kcal coal in Yulin for non - power enterprises is in the range of 680 - 710 yuan/ton, and the price of 5800 - kcal coal is in the range of 640 - 670 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - In October 2025, China imported 4173.7 million tons of coal, a decrease of 451.1 million tons or 9.75% compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 426.60 million tons or 9.27% compared with September. From January to October 2025, China imported a total of 38762.30 million tons of coal, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [3]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia are generally stable. As of November 10, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos is 71%, and that in Yulin is 46%. The daily average coal output of Ordos and Yulin is more than 390 million tons, and the domestic supply is generally tightening. The coal prices have generally risen due to strong Chinese procurement demand [4]. - **Demand**: The procurement demand in China is relatively strong, while that in Japan and South Korea is average. The overall market sentiment has improved driven by Chinese buyers. Most power plants are operating at a load of about 70%, and the number of available days of power plant inventory is at a medium - to - high level, with a relatively stable overall operation. Some power plants mainly rely on long - term contract fulfillment and basically achieve a balance between intake and consumption, while a few power plants make small - scale market purchases according to their own inventory structures [4]. - **Inventory**: Railway transportation has returned to normal. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line is 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved trains by the Hohhot Railway Bureau is around 30. The port inventory is generally stable. As of November 10, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports is 22.91 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. The daily consumption of coastal power plants is low, but the inventory is continuously decreasing, and the inventory of inland power plants is neutral [4]. - **Overall Situation**: In mid - November, the coal production in major producing areas is running at a low level, the coal operating rates in Ordos and Yulin are stable, and the daily average output is around 3.8 million tons, with supply tightening. The power plant inventory is continuously decreasing, the import profit is available, and coastal power plants are increasing their procurement efforts. The port intake and output are at a low level, and the port inventory fluctuates within a range. With the end of the high - temperature period across the country, the daily consumption of power plants is hovering at a low level, and the coal consumption is average. However, the inventory of coastal power plants is lower than the same period, and they continue to make rigid - demand purchases, leading to a continuous increase in the port FOB price. The coal mine operating rate is low due to strengthened safety supervision at the mine mouth, and the output is average. The demand for chemical coal is acceptable, and the increase in the mine - mouth price has narrowed. It is expected that the coal price will mainly slow down its upward trend in the short term [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that urea will continue its downward trend. The domestic supply is abundant, and with the end of the autumn fertilizer season in North China, the overall demand is set to enter a "vacuum period." Although the issuance of the fourth batch of export quotas may boost market sentiment in the short - term, the fundamentals of urea remain loose [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures fluctuated and weakened, closing at 1640 (-21/-1.26%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - factory prices were weakly stable with average trading. Different regions had different ex - factory price ranges, such as 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton in Henan, 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton for small - sized in Shandong and Hebei, 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton for medium and small - sized in Shanxi, 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton for small - sized in Anhui, and 1420 - 1490 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [3]. Important Information - On November 11, the daily production of the urea industry was 19.51 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and an increase of 1.49 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.41%, up 3.68% from 79.73% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - The impact of the news about the new export quota has faded, and market sentiment has cooled. In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory quotes led the increase, but market sentiment cooled, with the industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declining, raw material inventory being abundant, finished product inventory being high, and few grass - roots orders. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, and the ex - factory quotes followed the increase. In the areas around the delivery zone, the ex - factory prices followed the increase, and the market atmosphere was average. The demand in Northeast China was stable, and the trading sentiment was okay [5]. - The maintenance devices have gradually returned, and the daily average production has increased to around 19.6 tons. On the demand side, with the issuance of the fourth batch of quotas, the influence of international prices on the domestic market has increased again. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China has basically ended, and the grass - roots stockpiling is coming to an end. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the urea inventory can be used for more than half a month. The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased slightly by 20,000 tons to around 1.58 million tons, which is at a high level overall [5]. - The domestic supply is loose, and the overall demand is showing a downward trend. In the short term, the domestic demand is still limited. Although the new quota issuance will boost market sentiment to some extent in the short - term, the domestic autumn fertilizer has ended, and the overall demand is about to enter a "vacuum period." With the recent callback of bulk commodities and the loose fundamentals of urea, it is expected that urea will continue to decline [5]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short at high levels [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7].

1. Report Date - The report is dated November 11, 2025 [2] 2. Market Overview IM (China Securities 1000 Index Futures) - The main contract of IM fell 0.3% to close at 7390.4 points. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 186,082 lots, a decrease of 8,391 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 354,095 lots, a decrease of 582 lots from the previous day [3] - The main contract of IM was at a discount of 150.39 points, a decrease of 8.14 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -19.05% [4] IF (CSI 300 Index Futures) - The main contract of IF fell 0.84% to close at 4626.8 points. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 110,400 lots, an increase of 3,615 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 263,184 lots, a decrease of 5,129 lots from the previous day [20][21] - The main contract of IF was at a discount of 25.37 points, a decrease of 2.32 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -5.13% [21] IC (CSI 500 Index Futures) - The main contract of IC fell 0.79% to close at 7173 points. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 112,484 lots, a decrease of 10,252 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 241,256 lots, a decrease of 8,077 lots from the previous day [40][41] - The main contract of IC was at a discount of 118.61 points, a decrease of 10.61 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -15.48% [41] IH (SSE 50 Index Futures) - The main contract of IH fell 0.58% to close at 3033 points. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 50,142 lots, an increase of 4,232 lots from the previous day, and the total open interest was 94,744 lots, a decrease of 1,967 lots from the previous day [57] - The main contract of IH was at a discount of 1.63 points, a decrease of 1.77 points from the previous day, and the annualized basis rate was -0.5% [58] 3. Contract - Specific Data IM | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open - Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 1000 | 7540.79 | -0.30% | 26,525 | -3% | 4,049 billion | -7% | - | - | | IM2511 | 7476.60 | -0.30% | 32,931 | -3% | 495 billion | -3% | 60,308 | -1,464 | | IM2512 | 7390.40 | -0.30% | 122,556 | -4% | 1,820 billion | -4% | 179,084 | -6 | | IM2603 | 7167.00 | -0.34% | 21,766 | -3% | 314 billion | -3% | 79,515 | 412 | | IM2606 | 6949.80 | -0.30% | 8,829 | -11% | 123 billion | -11% | 35,188 | 476 | [3] IF | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open - Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4652.17 | -0.91% | 18,664 | -21% | 4,776 billion | -20% | - | - | | IF2511 | 4640.20 | -0.88% | 23,298 | 4% | 326 billion | 4% | 39,376 | -1,830 | | IF2512 | 4626.80 | -0.84% | 70,771 | 1% | 986 billion | 1% | 151,427 | -4,735 | | IF2603 | 4600.40 | -0.76% | 12,465 | 12% | 173 billion | 12% | 58,627 | 501 | | IF2606 | 4559.00 | -0.71% | 3,866 | 16% | 35 billion | 16% | 13,754 | 935 | [20] IC | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open - Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 500 | 7291.61 | -0.71% | 19,166 | -6% | 3,386 billion | -9% | - | - | | IC2511 | 7242.20 | -0.72% | 22,488 | -5% | 327 billion | -5% | 42,026 | -2,898 | | IC2512 | 7173.00 | -0.79% | 69,626 | -9% | 1,005 billion | -9% | 127,025 | -5,885 | | IC2603 | 7003.80 | -0.77% | 15,091 | -10% | 212 billion | -11% | 53,067 | 26 | | IC2606 | 6813.80 | -0.73% | 5,279 | -10% | 72 billion | -10% | 19,138 | 680 | [40] IH | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Open - Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3034.63 | -0.63% | 4,104 | -16% | 1,181 billion | -16% | - | - | | IH2511 | 3033.60 | -0.62% | 9,704 | -1% | 88 billion | -1% | 12,907 | -964 | | IH2512 | 3033.00 | -0.58% | 34,254 | 13% | 312 billion | 13% | 60,887 | -712 | | IH2603 | 3029.60 | -0.58% | 4,768 | 10% | 43 billion | 10% | 16,591 | -144 | | IH2606 | 3022.60 | -0.59% | 1,416 | -11% | 13 billion | -11% | 4,359 | -147 | [57] 4. Basis and Annualized Basis Rate IM - The main contract's basis was - 150.39 points, and the annualized basis rate was -19.05% [4] IF - The main contract's basis was - 25.37 points, and the annualized basis rate was -5.13% [21] IC - The main contract's basis was - 118.61 points, and the annualized basis rate was -15.48% [41] IH - The main contract's basis was - 1.63 points, and the annualized basis rate was -0.5% [58] 5. Main Seats' Data IM - Data for main seats of IM2511, IM2512, IM2603, and IM2606 are provided, including trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume and their changes [15][17][19] IF - Data for main seats of IF2511, IF2512, IF2603, and IF2606 are provided, including trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume and their changes [35][37][38] IC - Data for main seats of IC2511, IC2512, and IC2603 are provided, including trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume and their changes [51][53][55] IH - Data for main seats of IH2511, IH2512, IH2603 are provided, including trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume and their changes [72][74][76]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Derivatives**: The stock index futures are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, while the bond market sentiment is not weak, but the upward space of bond futures is limited [20][23]. - **Agricultural Products**: The protein meal has support in the near - term, while the long - term is under pressure. The sugar price is expected to be volatile. The oil and fat sector is in a bottom - grinding stage. Corn and its starch are in a strong - side volatile state. The pig price is expected to be under pressure, and peanuts are in a short - term bottom - shock state. Egg prices may have limited upside, and apple prices are mainly stable. Cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [26][31][35][38][42][46][51][54]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are in a range - bound state. Coking coal and coke are expected to be adjusted in the short - term and offer buying opportunities after a pullback. Iron ore is considered from a bearish perspective, and ferroalloys' previous short positions can be reduced [57][60][63][64]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Precious metals are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Copper is in a short - term shock state. Alumina prices may rebound slightly but face pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to be stronger in a volatile state. Zinc requires attention to export volume, lead is in a range - bound state, and nickel prices are expected to weaken in a volatile manner [67][70][74][77][79][86][89][93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index futures followed the spot market to strengthen. The trading volume and open interest of some varieties changed. The market sentiment is optimistic, and the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. The trading strategies include not chasing high, building long positions on dips, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads on dips [19][20][21]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond futures closed mostly higher on Monday. The market funds tightened, but the bond market showed resilience. The upward space of bond futures is limited. The trading strategies include waiting and holding short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread and considering long positions on the T - contract current - next quarter spread [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The export prospects of US soybeans have improved, providing support. The domestic soybean meal has supply uncertainties, with strong near - term support and long - term pressure. Rapeseed meal is expected to be in a shock state [26]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar production in major producing areas is increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Domestically, the sugar price is expected to be in a range - bound state, with limited downward space due to policy support [31]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: In October, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased as expected. The oil and fat sector is in a bottom - grinding stage, and there may be a technical rebound in the short - term [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures rebounded. The domestic corn spot price is strong, and the futures are in a strong - side volatile state [36][38]. - **Pigs**: The pig price is generally in a downward trend. The overall supply pressure still exists, and the pig price is expected to be under pressure [39][40]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the 01 contract is in a short - term bottom - shock state. The 05 contract can be considered for short - term long positions [41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand for eggs has improved slightly, but the supply of laying hens is still at a high level, and the upside space of egg prices is limited [44][46]. - **Apples**: New apples are gradually being stored, and the price is mainly stable. The inventory is expected to be lower than last year, but the current futures price is at a high level, so it is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton picking is coming to an end. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [53][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of rebar is increasing, and the steel price is in a range - bound state. The supply and demand structure suppresses the steel price, but there is support at the bottom due to environmental protection [57]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market drive is not obvious in the short - term, and it is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner. In the medium - term, there are buying opportunities after a pullback [60]. - **Iron Ore**: The terminal demand is weakening, and the supply is at a high level. The iron ore price is expected to be in a high - level bearish operation [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply and demand of ferroalloys are weakening at the margin, but the cost provides support. The previous short positions can be reduced [64]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The market's liquidity expectation has improved, and precious metals are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner [67]. - **Copper**: The short - term copper price is in a shock state. The supply is tightening, and the demand is warming up [70][71][73]. - **Alumina**: The supply and demand of alumina are still in significant surplus. The price may rebound slightly, but it faces pressure from the basis [77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There are still concerns about overseas supply, and the aluminum price is expected to be stronger in a volatile manner [79][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Affected by the cost and demand, the cast aluminum alloy price will maintain a strong - side volatile state with the aluminum price [85]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the export volume of zinc [86]. - **Lead**: The lead price is in a range - bound state, and it may decline with the increase of social inventory [89][90]. - **Nickel**: The cost of nickel has loosened, and the nickel price is expected to weaken in a volatile manner [93].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a zinc special report dated November 10, 2025, focusing on the Q3 financial reports of overseas zinc mines [4][8][12] Group 2: Overseas Mine Production Overseas Part - Mine Output Aggregation - The report provides a detailed table of the production of overseas mining enterprises from 2021Q1 to 2025Q3, including Vedanta, Glencore, TECK, etc. The total production shows fluctuations over different quarters and years, with varying year - on - year growth rates [16] Global Zinc Concentrate Annual Output - The annual output and year - on - year growth rate of global zinc concentrate from 2017 to 2025E are presented. The output in 2025E is expected to be 1262.05 million tons, with a year - on - year growth of 5.90% [70] Zinc Concentrate Production Change Forecast - In 2025, overseas mines are expected to have a net increase of 59.49 million tons in production, with new mines, production increases, restarts, and some mines reducing production or shutting down. Domestic mines are expected to have a new production increase of 10.80 million tons, with a total global net increase of 70.29 million tons [73] - Forecasts for production changes from 2026 - 2030 are also provided, with a total net increase of 23.27 million tons in 2026, 5.60 million tons in 2027, 12.10 million tons in 2028, 6.30 million tons in 2029, and 0.70 million tons in 2030 [75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the sugar production in major global producing areas is increasing. The fundamentals of raw sugar are weak, and the long - term trend is downward. Domestically, in the short term, the sugar price of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is expected to fluctuate within a range, and in the long term, it is expected to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited due to policy support [11][12] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for the domestic market, short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: SR09 closed at 5,403 with an increase of 5 (0.09%), trading volume of 1,703 (an increase of 116), and an open interest of 10,961 (a decrease of 108); SR01 closed at 5,475 with an increase of 18 (0.33%), trading volume of 139,545 (a decrease of 1,192), and an open interest of 373,243 (an increase of 1,282); SR05 closed at 5,405 with an increase of 8 (0.15%), trading volume of 21,900 (an increase of 6,805), and an open interest of 115,922 (an increase of 2,673) [6] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of sugar in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5,730, 5,905, 6,000, 5,760, 6,015, 5,820, and 6,130 respectively. The price in Liuzhou decreased by 30, while others remained unchanged [6] - **Basis**: The basis in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 255, 430, 525, 285, 540, 345, and 655 respectively [6] - **Inter - monthly Spread**: SR5 - SR01 spread was - 70 (a decrease of 10), SR09 - SR5 spread was - 2 (a decrease of 3), and SR09 - SR01 spread was - 72 (a decrease of 13) [6] - **Import Profit**: The quota - within price and quota - outside price for Brazilian imports were 3,952 and 5,002 respectively, with a spread of 728 compared to Liuzhou, 818 compared to Rizhao, and 473 compared to the futures price; for Thai imports, the quota - within price and quota - outside price were 4,007 and 5,075 respectively, with a spread of 655 compared to Liuzhou, 745 compared to Rizhao, and 400 compared to the futures price [6] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: India allows 1.5 million tons of sugar exports in the 2025/26 season, lower than the industry's request of 2 million tons, and cancels the 50% export tariff on molasses; the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi starts no earlier than November 30, and enterprises need to abide by relevant regulations; the FAO sugar price index in October was 94.1, down 5.3 points (5.3%) from September and 35.4 points (27.4%) year - on - year, reaching the lowest level since December 2020 [8][9][10] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar production in Brazil is at a historically high level, the support of ethanol for sugar weakens, and India's sugar exports may be higher than expected, so the raw sugar fundamentals are weak. Domestically, in the short term, the sugar supply is expected to increase, but the import of syrup and premixed powder is tightened, and the previous pricing cost is relatively high, so the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and be weak in the long term [11][12] - **Trading Strategies**: For the single - side strategy, the international sugar price resumes the downward trend, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be volatile, so it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations; for the arbitrage strategy, short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar; for the options strategy, adopt a wait - and - see approach [13][14] 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including monthly inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan, sales - to - production ratio trends in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, basis and inter - monthly spreads of different contract months [16][17][21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with a current recommendation of waiting and a low - buying approach. Alumina prices are in a bottom - grinding phase, with short - term narrow - range rebounds and potential for continuous upward movement if substantial production cuts occur. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong with a bullish outlook after corrections. Cast aluminum alloy prices will be strong and bullish on dips. Zinc prices will fluctuate within a range. Lead prices may decline with increasing social inventory. Nickel prices are expected to decline during the off - season. Stainless steel prices will face downward pressure. Tin prices will remain high and volatile. Industrial silicon prices are recommended to hold long positions and take profits at high points. Polysilicon prices should be bought after corrections await positive news. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rebound in the short - term and consider shorting at high - pressure levels [3][13][22][30][37][41][46][53][61][65][71][78] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,480 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 834 lots to 555,200 lots. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 15 yuan/ton to a premium of 55 yuan/ton, while in Guangdong it dropped to a discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, and in North China it remained at a discount of 140 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: In October, China's CPI and PPI showed positive trends. The US Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. As of November 10, copper inventories decreased by 0.74 tons to 195,900 tons. A Canadian company may restart a copper mine in Nevada in Q2 2026, supplying about 27,000 tons of copper annually [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term liquidity concerns are alleviated. The supply is tightening while demand is picking up [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and maintain a long - term bullish view. Consider ratio trading for potential rebounds and wait on options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina rose by 50 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 8,099 lots to 547,700 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends [8] - **Related Information**: An aluminum plant in Xinjiang and an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan made procurement transactions. Guinea's mining companies had relevant operations. National alumina production capacity and costs were reported [9][10][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply exceeds demand, and there are expectations of production cuts. Prices rebounded due to short - covering, but the upside may be limited without substantial production cuts [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebounds, beware of selling pressure. Wait on arbitrage and options [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose by 80 yuan to 21,680 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 13,320 lots to 743,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was positive, and the US government was expected to end the shutdown. Overseas and domestic aluminum production and consumption situations were reported [17][19][20] - **Trading Logic**: The market sentiment is eased. Overseas supply is tight, while domestic demand shows resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Remain bullish after corrections. Consider long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage and wait on options [23][24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose by 60 yuan to 21,105 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 165 lots. Spot prices remained stable in different regions [26] - **Related Information**: The US government was expected to end the shutdown. The cost and profit of the industry were reported, and warehouse receipts increased [28][29] - **Trading Logic**: Market sentiment is eased. Supply is tight and costs are high, but downstream sentiment is affected by high prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish on dips. Wait on arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.07% to 22,670 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 1,217 lots to 228,100 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai were affected by supply and demand, and trading was mainly among traders [33] - **Related Information**: Domestic zinc inventories slightly increased [34] - **Logic Analysis**: Mine supply is tight, and there are expectations of production cuts. The upside may be limited [35][37] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range. Hold the long SHFE and short LME zinc arbitrage. Wait on options [38] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 contract rose 0.49% to 17,505 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 26 lots to 120,300 lots. Spot prices increased, and the spread between primary and recycled lead decreased [40] - **Related Information**: Social inventories increased [41] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may improve, while demand may weaken [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range and expect a decline with increasing inventory. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Important Information**: The Jakarta government is formulating regulations on official electric vehicles. The Indonesian government is cracking down on illegal mining. Global nickel smelting activities declined in September [44][46] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are slightly tightened, but overall it is loose. Prices are under pressure during the off - season [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [47][48][49] Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel factory in South Korea suspended operations due to an accident. A Chinese company's production capacity and market situation were reported [51][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak with limited demand growth points. Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [53] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage [54][55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 286,560 yuan/ton, up 1.04%. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 2,250 yuan/ton to 286,000 yuan/ton [57] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was reported. Yunnan achieved mining goals, and a company's tin production decreased [58][60] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment is positive for tin prices, but the supply is tight, and demand is slowly recovering [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a high - level range. Wait on options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: A quartz - to - silicon plant in Angola was completed. November's polysilicon production decreased, and power prices in Yunnan and Sichuan increased [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weakening, and supply may further decrease. Prices may range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [65] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and take profits at high points. Do positive arbitrage on Si2512 and Si2601 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options [66][67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Sichuan issued a notice on new energy project electricity price bidding [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are both decreasing, with supply decreasing more. Spot prices lack upward momentum [71] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy after corrections await positive news. Do reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [72][73] Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: A research team made a breakthrough in solid - state battery technology. The new - energy vehicle market was active [76] - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream production increased slightly in November, while production decreased. Prices may remain high in the short - term and face downward pressure in the medium - term [78] - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a short - term rebound and consider shorting at high - pressure levels. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [79][80][81]

Group 1: Market Information - SF main contract closed at 5588, up 62 for the day and week, with a trading volume of 185,321 (up 68,507) and an open interest of 165,633 (down 64,581) [2] - SM main contract closed at 5820, up 60 for the day and 26 for the week, with a trading volume of 213,766 (up 83,896) and an open interest of 354,763 (down 2,377) [2] - Spot prices of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai were 5300, 5250, and 5270 respectively, with different weekly changes; spot prices of 6517 Si - Mn in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi also had different weekly changes [2] - The basis and spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions showed various daily and weekly changes [2] - The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin and semi - coke in different regions had different daily and weekly changes [2] Group 2: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - On November 10, ferrosilicon futures prices rose overall. The SF main contract rose 1.12%, and the SM main contract rose 1.04%. Both had a decrease in open interest [5] - For ferrosilicon, spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend on the 10th. Supply did not show a reduction trend, while demand had a downward expectation due to the decline in steel production and poor steel profits. The cost side was supported by rising power coal prices and electricity prices. Previous short positions could be reduced [5] - For silicomanganese, manganese ore spot prices were stable on the 10th, and silicomanganese spot prices fluctuated slightly. Supply was still at a high level, and demand had downward pressure. The cost side was supported by rising overseas manganese ore quotes and electricity prices. Previous short positions could be reduced [5] - Unilateral: With the marginal weakening of supply - demand and cost support, previous short positions could be reduced on dips; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] Important Information - On the 10th, Tianjin Port had different quotes for different types of manganese ore [7] - A large steel mill in Hebei issued a tender for 75B ferrosilicon in November, with a quantity of 2,716 tons, 240 tons less than in October [8] Group 3: Related Attachments - There are various charts including the trend of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese main contracts, the spread between SF and SM, the monthly spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [13][14][15] - The production costs and profits of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions are presented in tables and charts [18][24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The black metal sector maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend today, with differentiation among varieties. Finished products were stronger than raw materials. The overall spot trading volume of steel was average but improved compared to last Friday. - Last week, blast furnaces in North China continued to cut production, leading to an overall decline in steel output. However, electric arc furnaces have recently shifted to increased production, and it is expected that the supply of rebar will continue to grow. - Last week, rebar inventories continued to decline, but hot - rolled coil inventories increased overall. The apparent demand for all steel products declined, and the supply - demand structure suppressed steel prices. - Recently, the rapid reduction in hot metal production squeezed raw materials, causing the center of steel prices to move down. In the fourth quarter, the release of funds slowed down, downstream payment collection was slow, and the number of projects decreased year - on - year. The impact of macro factors gradually subsided, and there was still pressure above. However, in November, the supply of coking coal tightened due to environmental protection, providing support below. - In the short term, steel prices will generally fluctuate within a range, and more factors are needed to break the situation. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The net price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3160 yuan (unchanged), Beijing Jingye rebar was 3180 yuan (unchanged), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3270 yuan (+10), and Tianjin HBIS hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan (unchanged). [4] Market Research and Judgment - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Steel prices will maintain a range - bound and volatile trend. [6] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the long position on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar. [7] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see. [8] - **Important Information** - In October, the national infrastructure winning bid amount was 475.4 billion yuan, a 32.62% decrease from September and a 22.00% decrease from the same period last year. The cumulative year - on - year decrease from January to October was 7.18%. - In October 2025, the national ex - factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The month - on - month change turned from flat to a 0.1% increase. The purchase prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.7% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the month - on - month increase was 0.1%, the same as the previous month. From January to October, the average ex - factory prices of industrial producers decreased by 2.7% compared to the same period last year, and the purchase prices of industrial producers decreased by 3.2%. [9] Relevant Attached Figures The report provides multiple figures related to the black metal industry, including price trends, basis, spreads, and profit margins of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts from 2021 to 2026. The data sources are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind. [13][17][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market remains relatively loose in supply and demand, with the US market showing a stronger trend due to increased exports, while Brazilian soybean prices may face pressure in the medium term [4]. - The domestic spot market for soybean meal and rapeseed meal is in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with soybean meal showing a phased rebound and rapeseed meal experiencing a decline [3]. - The price of US soybeans is expected to have limited upside space and will mainly fluctuate at high levels, while the price of Brazilian soybeans is expected to fluctuate. The price of soybean meal may face pressure in the medium to long term, and the demand for rapeseed meal is generally weak [7]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - US soybean futures continued to rise slightly, driven by improved trade relations. Brazilian soybean prices remained stable, with limited changes in exports and international demand. Domestic soybean meal futures rebounded due to the overall rebound in agricultural products, while rapeseed meal futures declined after a recent rally [3]. - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened, and the inter - month spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In the international market, the fundamental changes in US soybeans are limited. The estimated reduction in new - crop yields provides some support for prices, but the upside space is limited. In South America, the supply of Brazilian soybeans is expected to increase as the new - crop planting progresses rapidly, and the old - crop exports and crushing are strong. The old - crop production in Argentina is large, and the pressure on exports has eased [4]. - In the domestic market, the supply of soybean meal is abundant, with increasing oil - mill operating rates. The supply of rapeseed meal is also relatively loose, with sufficient granular rapeseed meal inventory [5]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The macro - environment has stabilized recently. Positive signals from China - US negotiations have boosted the US soybean market. The resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China has improved the export prospects of US soybeans. However, the impact of macro - factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future [6]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - The upward movement of US soybean prices is mainly driven by short - term factors, and the upside space is limited. Brazilian soybean prices are expected to face pressure but may be supported by slow planting progress in the short term. The price of soybean meal is supported in the short term but may face pressure in the long term. The demand for rapeseed meal is weak, and the inter - month spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see for the 05 contract. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. - For options, a short straddle strategy is suggested [8][9].