大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 生猪日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | | 2025/10/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 11.64 | 11.43 | 0.21 | 山西 | （-100） | 11.11 | 10.90 | 0.21 | | 湖北（0） | 11.07 | 11.03 | 0.04 | | 辽 宁 | 11.54 | 11.40 | 0.14 | | 安徽（200） | 11.79 | 11.48 | 0.31 | | 吉林（-300） | 11.51 | 11.40 | 0.11 | | 湖南（100） | 10.76 | 10. ...

玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 2025/10/20 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 2138 21 0.98% 673,055 25.40% 800,344 3.98% 2250 28 1.24% 68,135 5.45% 197,618 9.43% 2286 32 1.40% 3,910 175.16% 3,603 21.35% 2410 26 1.08% 93,712 -5.61% 186,574 4.20% 2543 25 0.98% 1,410 -2.77% 4,526 0.98% 2605 25 0.96% 42 5.00% 168 9.09% 青冈 松原嘉吉 诸城兴贸 寿光 锦州港 南通港 广东港口 1965 2020 2340 2200 2170 2240 2310 20 0 50 -10 20 20 0 -321 -266 54 -86 32 -46 24 龙凤 中粮 嘉吉 玉峰 金玉米 诸城兴贸 恒仁工贸 2650 2650 2800 2920 2800 2900 2780 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 107 107 2 ...

期货从业证号： F3084078 航运日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 航运日报 研究员：贾瑞林 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数(欧线)日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 増减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 増减幅 | | EC2510 | 1,100.1 | 3.2 | 0.29% | 1,174.0 | -25.70% | 8,396.0 | -6.96% | | EC2512 | 1,682.0 | 27.3 | 1.65% | 24,318.0 | -18.50% | 26,101.0 | 1.72% | | EC2602 | 1,522.0 | 50.0 | 3.40% | 6,950.0 | 34.66% | 10 ...

股指期货数据日报 2025年10月20日 IM每日行情 IM行情概要 IM成交持仓 | | | | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | 成交额 +/- | | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证1000 | 7239.18 | 0.75% | 21,858 | -14% | 3,284 | -14% | | | | | IM2511 | 7137.60 | 0.47% | 44,989 | -19% | 645 | -18% | 71,066 | -6,537 | 122 | | IM2512 | 7059.20 | 0.50% | 143,577 | -17% | 2,036 | -17% | 189,654 | -9,694 | 321 | | IM2603 | 6841.60 | 0.49% | 28,288 | -14% | 389 | -14% | 82,550 | -4,721 | 136 | | IM2606 | 6637.40 | 0.00% ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面宽幅震荡，最终报收 2266（-23/-1%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 2050 元/吨，北线报价 2000 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2000 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1980 元/吨，山西地区报价 2100 元/吨，河南地区报价 2160 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2250 元/吨，鲁北报价 2270 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2200 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2140 元/吨，云贵报价 2200 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2260 元/吨，宁波报价 2270 元/吨，广州报价 2250 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 本周期(20251011-20251017）国际甲醇（除中国）产量为 1075859 吨，装置产能利用 率为 73.75%%。周期装置变动有，伊朗 Kimiya 再度停车，其他维持前期；文莱装置产量 已修正至 9 月底重启；南美有装置上旬重启；挪威装置停车检修。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 660 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 煤炭日报 2025 年 10 月 20 日 煤炭日报 【市场回顾】 现货市场：10 月 20 日，港口动力煤市场维持强势上行态势。现 5500 大卡市场报价 765-775 元/吨，5000 大卡市场报价 670-685 元/吨，4500 大卡市场报价 575-585 元/吨； 内蒙地区非电企业用煤 5500 大卡煤种价格处于 530 - 570 元/吨之间，5000 大卡煤种价格 处于 455 - 495 元/吨之间，4500 大卡煤种价格处于 390 - 430 元/吨之间；榆林地区非电 企业用煤 6000 大卡煤的价格区间为 570-600 元/吨，5800 大卡煤的价格区间为 530-560 元/吨；山西非电企业用煤 5500 大卡煤种价格处于 555 - 605 元/吨之间，5000 大卡煤种 价格处于 495 - 545 元/吨之间，4500 大卡煤种价格处于 425 - 475 元/吨之间。江内港口 5500 大卡动力煤主流报价 800-810 元/吨；5000 大卡报价 710-725 元/吨，其中部分低硫 优质煤报价更是高达 730 元/吨；4500 大卡报价 ...

需求持续不振，尿素震荡下行 大宗商品研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年10月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、概述 上周观点：需求零星释放，出厂价以稳为主 GALAXY FUTURES 2 本周观点：需求继续不振，价格震荡下行 周末至今，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价下跌，成交平平。山东地区主流出厂报价领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥 开工率略有提升，原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交乏力，待发消耗， 预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报价跟涨，贸易商观望，收单量下滑，成交转弱，待发充裕，预计出厂报价跟跌为主。 交割区周边区域出厂价弱稳，区内市场氛围表现降温，东北地区需求低迷，交投情绪一般，农业刚需采购，期现商和贸易商出货，外发订单 量下滑，新单成交平平，待发充裕，预计出厂价下跌为主。 综合来看，部分装置检修，日均产量降至18.7万吨附近。需求端，印标即将出结果，当前国内外价差 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily morning observations on various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemical products. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides trading strategies for each commodity [5][7][9]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro changes increase, and the overall pressure on meal products is rising. The international soybean pressure is high, and the domestic soybean meal may face more downward pressure. It is recommended to short the 05 contract on rallies, conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads, and sell call options at high points [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: The price of foreign sugar has fallen, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to open lower. The global sugar production is increasing, and the domestic sugar market is expected to follow the foreign market. It is recommended to short on rallies [17][18][20]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend is to maintain a shock. The palm oil export volume in Malaysia has increased, and the soybean planting progress in Brazil is ahead. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on significant pullbacks [20][21][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The new grain spot price has rebounded, and the futures market is expected to be strongly volatile. The US corn production may be adjusted, and the domestic new corn supply is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract, and gradually build long - term long positions on the 05 and 07 contracts on dips [23][24][25]. - **Hogs**: The pressure on hog sales has improved, and the spot price is generally stable. The short - term supply is still high, and the pig price is expected to face some pressure. It is recommended to take a bearish view and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [25][26][27]. - **Peanuts**: Peanuts may experience a reduction in production, and the short - term trend is to be strongly volatile. The spot price is stable, and the oil mills are starting to purchase. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 contracts on dips and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [28][29][30]. - **Eggs**: The demand is fair, and the egg price has stabilized. The supply of laying hens is still high, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close out previous short positions [31][32][35]. - **Apples**: The high - quality fruit rate is average, and the fruit price is rising steadily. The price of high - quality apples is expected to be firm, and the price gap will be large. It is recommended to go long on the 11 - month contract and short the 1 - month contract [36][37][39]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton purchase progress has accelerated, and the cotton price is mainly volatile. The new cotton supply is increasing, and the demand is improving slightly. It is expected that the cotton price will maintain a volatile trend [40][41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Affected by coal mine safety accidents, the black metal sector has rebounded. The steel production is decreasing, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view on the shock and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar on dips [46][47][48]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply is disturbed, and there is support at the bottom. The coal mine safety supervision is strengthening, and the steel mill profit is not good. It is recommended to take profits on some long positions and go long on dips [48][49][50]. - **Iron Ore**: A bearish view is taken in the medium - term. The global iron ore supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is weakening. It is recommended to short in the medium - term and conduct cash - futures reverse spreads [51][52][53]. - **Ferroalloys**: The macro - sentiment drives the rebound, but the demand pressure still exists. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. It is recommended to expect a rebound driven by the improvement of macro - sentiment, but the price will be in a bottom - shock state [53][54][55]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trump's trade stance has softened, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined. The precious metals prices have fallen after a long - term rise. It is recommended to take profits and wait for new long - entry opportunities [59][60][61]. - **Copper**: The supply - side disturbances are increasing, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. The copper supply is affected, and the consumption is average. It is recommended to go long on dips and continue to hold cross - market positive spreads [61][64][65]. - **Alumina**: The supply - side is showing marginal changes, and the price is mainly grinding at a low level. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to pay continuous attention to the supply - side changes [65][68][69]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Pay attention to the macro - expectations this week, and the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. The macro - sentiment is improving, and the consumption is supportive. It is recommended to go long on dips [70][74][75]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The macro - panic sentiment has improved, and the alloy price can be bought on dips. The tariff panic has eased, and the demand is supportive. It is recommended to go long on dips [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: The export window has opened, and attention should be paid to the export volume and frequency. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the export window is open. It is recommended to close out some profitable short positions and short on rallies [78][79][82]. - **Lead**: The supply is gradually recovering, and the lead price may decline. The domestic lead supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to hold profitable short positions and short on rallies [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: The inventory increase reflects an oversupply, and the nickel price is under pressure. The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the shock range [87][88][89]. - **Stainless Steel**: The weak demand tests the cost support. The price is below the cost, and the demand is not optimistic. It is expected to maintain a weak - shock pattern [91][92][93]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a range - shock state, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low. The short - term supply is slightly excessive, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait for a full pullback [93][94][95]. - **Polysilicon**: It is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, and long positions should be held. The capacity integration is progressing, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to hold long positions [96][97][98]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand provides support, the supply is uncertain, and the lithium price is rising. The demand is stable, and the supply has uncertainties. It is recommended to go long on dips [97][98][100]. - **Tin**: The short - term macro - disturbances are large, and the tin price may be under pressure. The short - term consumption is weak, and the price is in a range - shock state. It is expected that the tin price will be under pressure [100][101][102].

油脂周报：油脂缺乏明显驱动，短期维持震荡运行 研究员：张盼盼 期货从业证号：F03119783 投资咨询证号：Z0022908 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 1. SPPOMA预计10月前15日马棕产量环比增加6.86%，ITS数据显示10月前15日马棕出口环比增加16%。 2. SEA数据显示，截至到9月印度2024/25年度食用油进口量累计达到1398万吨，同比减少3.8%。印度9月港 口库存继续累库至103万吨，其中棕榈油库存持平，豆油由于进口量较多使得累库明显，葵油有所去库。 3.本周油脂缺乏明显驱动，整体维持震荡，其中菜油受中加缓和预期以及空配等，跌幅明显。基本面上，预计 9月马棕产量或有所下滑，出口表现或略有上涨，而9月马棕库存或小幅累库。产地现货价格持稳运行对棕榈油 价格存在一定支撑，但目前棕榈油缺乏利多驱动，性价比和需求欠佳，阻碍棕榈油上涨，维持震荡运行。目前 豆油供需矛盾不突出，国内豆油小幅累库，后期随着大豆到港和压榨逐渐减少，国内豆油后期或将继续小幅去 库，但库存不大会紧张。国内菜油 ...

橡胶板块2025年10月第3周报 潘盛杰 大宗商品研究所 化工研究团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 估值方面：天然橡胶重心小幅下移。青岛STR20混合胶14586元/吨、上海全乳胶14387元/吨，周跌幅约1.5%。顺丁橡胶重心最低触及 10600-10700元/吨。 供应方面：海南、西双版纳降雨扰动，胶水日产量仅千余吨，国内原料收购价累计下调650-750元/吨；泰东北天气转好，杯胶跌至50.4泰 铢/公斤。市场认为泰国胶水对RU有着足够的支撑。通常，泰国胶水的涨跌幅在2019年以前与RU合约相当。在2019年以后，随着供应的达 峰，胶水价格的波动被放大，涨跌幅开始大于RU合约。即便如此，10月至今，泰国胶水报收54.1泰铢/公斤，同比下跌-34.8%，跌幅扩大， 且远大于RU合约同比-7.0%的跌幅。合成胶方面，原油成本支撑塌陷，叠加山东威特、益华橡塑重启，齐鲁、扬子虽检修但综合开工仍升至 74.8%，社会库存环比增14.6%。 需求方面：轮胎"双节"后全面复工，山东全钢胎开工负荷回升18.7个百分点至65%，半钢胎开工亦大幅上扬，下游逢低补库。值得注意的 是，一般卡客车胎强于轿车胎时，往往 ...