Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic refined oil market showed a situation of stable supply and improved demand, with both gasoline and diesel inventories increasing. Next week, it is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand, with potential increases in domestic gasoline and diesel production, continued weak demand, and rising inventory pressure on Shandong independent refineries [6][7]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis Market Overview - Supply: The national refinery operating rate remained stable at 70.6%, with the operating rate of major refineries rising 0.3 percentage points to 77.2%, and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries continuing to decline. The production of gasoline and diesel from major refineries increased slightly, while that from local refineries continued to decline, and the diesel-to-gasoline ratio dropped to 1.31 [6]. - Demand: The purchasing enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches of the market increased this week, market sentiment improved, and the sales-to-production ratios of gasoline and diesel both rebounded above the balance [6]. - Inventory: Commercial inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline inventory was 11.06 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 110,000 tons (+1.0%); diesel inventory was 12.81 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 270,000 tons (+2.1%). Local refinery diesel inventory decreased, while gasoline inventory increased slightly. Social inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased [6]. Future Outlook - Next week, the domestic refined oil market is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply may see a slight increase in overall domestic gasoline and diesel production, while demand will remain weak. Shandong independent refineries are expected to face rising inventory pressure [7]. Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking Price - Gasoline market prices increased slightly in most regions, with the national average price rising from 7,274 yuan/ton to 7,311 yuan/ton. Diesel market prices also increased slightly, with the national average price rising from 6,029 yuan/ton to 6,036 yuan/ton [14]. Profit - The refining profit of major refineries was 762 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 85 yuan/ton. The refining profit of independent refineries was 247 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 121 yuan/ton [19]. Operating Rate - The operating rate of Chinese refineries remained stable at 70.6%, with the operating rate of major refineries rising 0.3 percentage points to 77.2%, and the operating rate of independent refineries and Shandong local refineries both declining slightly [32][34]. Production - This week, the production of gasoline and diesel from major refineries increased slightly, while that from local refineries continued to decline. The diesel-to-gasoline ratio dropped to 1.31 [42][46]. Sales - The sales volume and sales-to-production ratio of gasoline and diesel from independent refineries and Shandong local refineries both increased [51]. Demand - The demand for gasoline and diesel remained weak. Although some terminals started to stock up for the Spring Festival, overall consumption sentiment was still dull [7]. Inventory - Commercial inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased this week. Next week, the gasoline inventory of Shandong independent refineries is expected to rise slightly, and diesel inventory is also expected to increase [74][78].

Report Title - Natural Gas: LNG Rebounds Sharply, HH Remains Weak [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Not clearly stated in the given text Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Mentions TTF and JKM, but no specific analysis content provided [4] 2. Fundamental Analysis LNG Market Fundamentals - Some data are presented, such as LNG having a certain value (184.1, 170.5, 91.4), and the power consumption being 592.7 TWh, with a -19.5% change compared to some reference period, and the proportion being 51.8% and 64.2%. Also, LNG has a consumption of 4628 GWh/day, a 17.4% change, etc. Forecasts from ECMWF and NOAA show temperature changes of 1 - 2℃, 2 - 4℃ [9] US Market Fundamentals - There are data about production and consumption. For example, on a certain day, the production is 31850, with an increase of 710 and 330 compared to some previous data, a 1% change; the number of rigs is 1132, a 0.3% change compared to the previous data, and a 9.0% change compared to the data from Baker Hughes on a specific day. There are also data on consumption and its changes [11] 3. Core Data Tracking International Natural Gas Prices - Includes TTF - HH spread, and prices of JKM first - line, TFU first - line, HH first - line, as well as HH monthly spreads (HH M1 - M2, HH M1 - M6, HH M1 - M12) and TTF monthly spreads (TTF M1 - M2, TTF M1 - M6, TTF M1 - M12) [15] Forward Curves - HH, JKM, and TTF forward curves are presented [18] China's Natural Gas Supply and Demand - China's natural gas supply and consumption volume data are shown, as well as domestic and imported LNG supply volume data [21] China's Inventory and Price - China's receiving station inventory level (in tons),储气库库存水平 (in %), and LNG ex - factory prices (including national, North China, South China, and East China) are presented [24] Northwest European Coal - Gas Conversion and European Natural Gas Data - Northwest European coal - gas conversion interval, European natural gas inventory, LNG import volume, and the quantity of floating storage tanks over 20 days are shown [27] European Natural Gas Import and Domestic Production - Data on European natural gas imports from different sources (Norway, Russia, North Africa, etc.) and domestic production in different countries (Netherlands, Italy, etc.) are presented [30] US Natural Gas Data - US natural gas inventory, dry gas production, rig numbers, liquefied export project flows, domestic consumption, power generation demand, industrial consumption, and residential and commercial consumption data, as well as the supply - demand balance sheet are provided [33][36][38] Temperature and Wind Forecasts - Temperature and wind forecasts from ECMWF and GFS are presented, including the latest and previous forecasts, as well as 5 - year and 10 - year averages [41][44]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the escalation and subsequent decline of the Iran situation, geopolitical risks have fluctuated more widely. The impact of the Venezuelan situation on oil prices has been gradually digested by the market, and the expectation of tight supply of asphalt raw materials has eased. However, the increase in raw material discounts has not been fully priced in, leading to high - level oscillations in asphalt. In terms of supply and demand, the off - season at the beginning of the year has arrived as expected, with both weekly supply and demand decreasing month - on - month. The industrial chain inventory remains at a low level, and the spot price is relatively firm. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate at a high level [5]. - For trading strategies, the single - side trading of asphalt is expected to oscillate at a high level with increased geopolitical risk fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage between BU4 - 6, and it is recommended to wait and see for options trading [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Geopolitical risks lead to increased cost fluctuations. The supply and demand of asphalt are in the off - season, with inventory at a low level and the spot price remaining firm. The futures market is expected to oscillate at a high level [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side trading: high - level oscillation with increased geopolitical risk fluctuations; Arbitrage: focus on BU4 - 6 positive spread arbitrage; Options: wait and see [6]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Cost and Supply**: The cost is strengthening, and the supply is at a low level. The price of asphalt in some regions has increased, and the overall market price has continued to rise. The increase in crude oil prices and the reduction in supply in some areas have led to price increases in North China, Shandong, and other regions [11]. - **Price Movement**: The price of asphalt in the market has continued to rise. The prices in Northeast, North China, Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, and Southwest (Sichuan and Chongqing) regions have increased by 5 - 40 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions have remained stable. The rise in crude oil and futures prices, as well as supply - demand factors in different regions, have supported the price increase [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: Geopolitical instability has increased cost fluctuations. The Brent main contract is expected to fluctuate between 61 - 64 US dollars. As of January 9, the theoretical processing profit of asphalt refineries was 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The basis of asphalt in different regions has changed to varying degrees [14]. - **Production**: The overall production of asphalt has increased slightly month - on - month. The production in the Northwest region has increased significantly, while that in the Northeast region has decreased slightly. The production in other regions has shown different degrees of change [16][17]. - **Inventory**: The refinery inventory has remained at a low level, with a slight increase in the overall inventory. The social inventory has increased steadily due to the storage of winter - reserve resources. Different regions have shown different inventory trends due to factors such as production, demand, and resource storage [19][20][22]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the asphalt main contract, Brent crude oil, and the prices of asphalt in different regions have shown certain fluctuations. The basis and profit margins of asphalt refineries and refined oil refineries have also changed [25]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: The refinery operating rate has increased slightly, the refinery inventory rate has increased slightly, the social inventory rate has increased slightly, the refinery weekly output has increased, and the refinery shipment volume has also changed [25].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research on the hog market on January 19, 2026, with the title "Supply Pressure Reduces, Spot Runs Strongly" [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Spot hog prices across the country are running strongly, but considering the high inventory and large出栏 weight, the subsequent supply pressure may continue to show, and the spot price is expected to decline in the long - term [3][5] - Hog futures prices continued to decline today, affected by recent data and the full reflection of positive factors in previous price increases. The futures price may face downward pressure after the current round of increase stabilizes [5] Group 4: Price and Profit Data Spot Prices - The average spot price of hogs today is 13.03 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in various regions have increased, with the largest increase of 1 yuan/kg in Guangdong [3] Futures Prices - Futures prices of most contracts declined, such as LH03 down 275 yuan, LH05 down 210 yuan [3] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices are 330 yuan, up 23 yuan from last week; sow prices remain unchanged at 1557 yuan [3] Breeding Profits - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 7.39 yuan, up 18.93 yuan; the profit of purchasing piglets is 48.35 yuan, up 50.66 yuan [3] Contract Spreads - For example, LH7 - 9 is - 825, up 75 from yesterday; LH9 - 1 is 1290, down 270 from yesterday [3] Slaughter and Size Pig Spreads - The slaughter volume is 191,453 heads, down 927 from yesterday. The large - to - standard pig spread is 0.7, up 0.21 from yesterday [3] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish mindset [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [6]

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 01 月 19 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： 研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 市场消息及观点 :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日似 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日似 | 涨跌 | | 成 | | | | | | あ | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.79 | 109.13 | 0.66 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.10 | 4.10 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.94 | 7.84 | 0.1 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2026 年 1 月 19 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 白糖数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/1/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减量 | 持仓量 | 增减量 | | SR09 | | 5,260 | -7 | -0.13% | 15,933 | -4763 | 89,055 | 58 | | SR01 | | 5,340 | 36 | 0.68% | 134 | -4707 | 117 | 117 | | SR05 | | 5,244 | -14 | -0.27% | 217,180 | 39411 | 427,297 | 580 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 白糖 | | 柳州 | 昆明 | 武汉 | 南宁 | 鲅鱼圈 | 日照 | 西安 | | 今日报价 | | 5390 | 5215 | 5660 | 5360 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The recent increase in egg prices is mainly due to the significant rise in spot prices, with the approaching Spring Festival leading to a faster overall market sales situation. The current egg production is starting to reduce capacity, and it is expected that the production capacity will likely continue to decline in the next few months. However, the upward space of the 03 contract is relatively limited as it is a post - Spring Festival contract with weak demand and low egg prices after the Spring Festival [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Fundamental Information - **Price Changes**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas today is 3.67 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.91 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable today, with some regions showing price increases or remaining unchanged [2][4]. - **Inventory Status**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in December was about 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [5]. - **Slaughter and Sales Volume**: From January 16th to the end of the week, the number of laying hens slaughtered in the main producing areas was 17.33 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of laying hens in the week of January 16th was 485 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. As of the week of January 8th, the sales volume of eggs in the representative selling areas was 7391 tons, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week, at a low level over the years [5]. - **Profit Situation**: As of January 15th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.13 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.26 yuan/jin from the previous week. On January 9th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory Days**: As of the week of January 15th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.97 days, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.05 days, also slightly decreasing from the previous week [6]. - **Slaughter Chicken Price**: Today, the price of slaughter chickens nationwide increased, with the average price in the main producing areas at 4.45 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [7]. II. Trading Logic - The strong performance of spot prices provides some support for the futures market. The current reduction in egg production capacity and the approaching Spring Festival are factors contributing to the price increase. However, due to the weak demand for eggs after the Spring Festival, the upward space of the 03 contract is relatively limited [8]. III. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Consider building long positions in the 5 - month far - month contract at low prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Cotton sales progress is fast, at a high level compared to the same period in previous years, and downstream备货意愿 has increased, with textile mills starting to place orders gradually. The cotton price is supported by market bullish factors, but it has recently pulled back, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For trading strategies, it is recommended to consider building long positions on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices while keeping a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: CF01 contract closed at 15140 with an increase of 465, CF05 at 14545 with a decrease of 45, and CF09 at 14710 with a decrease of 35. CY01 was at 0 with a decrease of 20250, CY05 at 20570 with a decrease of 45, and CY09 at 0 with a decrease of 20675. Details of trading volume, open interest, and their changes are also provided [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B was at 15880 yuan/ton with a decrease of 92, Cot A at 74.80 cents/pound, FC Index:M: to - port price at 72.29 with a decrease of 0.30, etc. [2] - **Price Spread**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was 595 with an increase of 510, 5 - 9 month spread was - 165 with a decrease of 10, etc. In yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 20570 with a decrease of 20205, etc. [2] Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - **Brazil**: In the 2025/26 season, Brazil is expected to remain dominant in the global cotton market. The total cotton output may decline slightly from the previous record - high year but will still be the second - highest in history. The planting area is expected to increase slightly by 0.7% to 2.1 million hectares, the yield per unit area is expected to decrease by 3.5%, and the total output will be 3.96 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. The domestic available supply is expected to be 6.77 million tons, an increase of 4.5%. Exports are expected to reach 3.06 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.98%, and domestic consumption is estimated to be 730,000 tons. As of December 2026, the ending inventory is expected to be 2.98 million tons, an increase of 6.07% compared to December 2025. As of January 6, the contract trading volume of 2025/26 cotton reached 621,520 tons, equivalent to 16% of the estimated national total output, and the pre - sales volume of 2026/27 cotton has reached at least 73,000 tons [4][5] - **USA**: As of the week of January 16, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of U.S. upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.7896 million tons, accounting for 94.6% of the estimated annual U.S. cotton output, 8% slower year - on - year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 94.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 8%, and that of Pima cotton was 90.5%, 19% slower year - on - year. The weekly deliverable ratio was 75.4%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.1%, 1.3 percentage points higher year - on - year [5] - **China**: On January 19, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - bound cotton was 0.1679 yuan/ton·km, a month - on - month increase of 0.66%. It is expected to show a narrow - range overall fluctuation in the short term [6] Trading Logic - The cotton sales progress is fast, and downstream备货意愿 has increased. The cotton price is supported by market bullish factors, but it has recently pulled back, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8] Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: It is expected that the U.S. cotton will mostly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and the fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton are still strong. It is recommended to consider building long positions at low prices. - **Arbitrage**: Wait - and - see. - **Options**: Wait - and - see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - **Domestic Market**: The domestic cotton yarn market remains sluggish, with prices generally stable but weak market sentiment. Spinning mills are mainly focused on active sales and inventory digestion. Some spinning enterprises have received downstream restocking orders, but the scale and enthusiasm are lower than in previous years. Most spinning enterprises still face the pressure of insufficient orders. Downstream rigid - demand purchases are mainly for sporadic restocking, and the overall stocking intention is not strong [9] - **Fabric Market**: Cotton fabric traders are cautious in stocking, with general purchase and order - placing volumes, mainly small - batch orders. The orders of weaving factories are average, and although the local operating rate has slightly recovered, the overall operating rate is still at a low level. It is expected that some weaving factories will gradually start their holidays at the end of the month. The inventory of weaving factories is still at a high level, and they prioritize inventory reduction to recover funds [10] Third Part: Options - **Option Contracts**: For example, on January 19, 2026, the CF605C14600.CZC contract had a closing price of 334.00 with a decrease of 16.9%, an implied volatility of 13.3%, etc. - **Volatility**: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 was 13.3%, CF605 - C - 14200 was 11.3%, and CF605 - P - 13800 was 11.2%. - **Option Strategy**: The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.8667, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13][15] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides figures such as the 1% tariff - based price spread between domestic and foreign cotton markets, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [18][22][26][27]

研究所 基本面分析报告 金融衍生品日报 2025 年 01 月 19 日 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号： F0211891 投资咨询从业证号： Z000567 ：021-65789277 ：sunfeng@chinastock.com.cn 研究员：沈忱 CFA ：shenchen_qh@chinastock.com.cn 期货从业证号： F3053225 投资咨询从业证号： Z0015885 金融衍生品日报 一、财经要闻 1. 国家统计局 1 月 19 日公布，国家统计局 1 月 19 日公布，中国 2025 年 12 月社会消费 品零售总额同比增长 0.9%，预期增长 1.5%，前值增长 1.3%。 2. 中国 2025年 12 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 0.9%，预期增长 1.5%，前值增长 1.3%。 3. 2025 年 12 月份，70 个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比总体下降、同比降幅扩大。 4. 中国 2025 年固定资产投资（不含农户）485186 亿元，同比下降 3.8%，1-11 月同比下 降 2.6%。其中，民间固定资产投资比上年下降 6.4%。从环比看，12 月份固定资产投资（不 含农 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Galaxy Futures' Agricultural Products R & D Report - Fats and Oils Daily Report [1][5][12][17] - Report date: January 19, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Data Analysis Spot Prices and Basis - **Soybean oil**: The 2605 closing price was 7996, down 20. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8516, 8566, and 8386 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 570, 520, and 390 respectively, with no change [2]. - **Palm oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8648, down 26. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8618, 8628, and 8768 respectively. The basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were -30, -20, and 120 respectively, with no change [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The 2605 closing price was 8902, down 161. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9552, 9502. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Guangxi were 650, and 600 respectively, with no change [2]. Monthly Spread Closing Prices - **Soybean oil 5 - 9 spread**: 120, down 10 [2]. - **Palm oil 5 - 9 spread**: 26, up 14 [2]. - **Rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread**: -21, down 74 [2]. Cross - Variety Spreads - **Y - P 05 contract**: -652, up 6 [2]. - **OI - Y 05 contract**: 906, no change in the reported movement [2]. - **OI - P 05 contract**: 254, down 135 [2]. - **Oil - meal ratio**: 2.93, down 0.01 [2]. Import Profits - **24 - degree palm oil**: The盘面 profit for Malaysia & Indonesia was -177, with a CNF price of 1057 for the 2 - month ship - period [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The盘面 profit for Rotterdam was -1133, with an FOB price of 1025 for the 2 - month ship - period [2]. Weekly Commercial Inventory (in 10,000 tons) - **Soybean oil**: 72.7 this week, 102.5 last week, 108.1 last year [2]. - **Palm oil**: 73.6 this week, 48.2 last year [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: 25.1 this week, 27.3 last week, 50.6 last year [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The new China - Canada economic and trade agreement is a positive development for Canadian canola growers, but key details need to be clarified. There is hope for improved market access after months of interruption. Ross Burtnak welcomes the potential reduction of canola seed tariffs and the cancellation of rapeseed meal tariffs, but is unsure about canola oil and needs further information [4]. Domestic Market - **Palm oil**: As of January 16, 2026 (week 3), the national key - area commercial inventory was 74.61 tons, up 1.01 tons (1.37%) from last week. It is at a slightly above - average level in the same period historically. The origin's quotes are stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 200. There was a reported purchase of 1 ship of palm oil. The basis is stable. In the short - term, it lacks a clear driver, with slow de - stocking expected under high inventory, and the high inventory will persist. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [4][6]. - **Soybean oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 199.42 tons, with an operating rate of 54.86%, an increase from the previous week. As of January 16, 2026, the national key - area commercial inventory was 96.33 tons, down 6.18 tons (6.03%) from last week. It is at a relatively high level in the same period historically. The basis is stable. Downstream demand has no bright spots. As soybean arrivals decrease and soybean crushing declines, the inventory may slightly decrease, but overall supply is sufficient. In the short - term, it lacks a clear driver and is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Due to the improvement in China - Canada relations, rapeseed from Canada is expected to enter the domestic market, and the rapeseed oil futures price fell by more than 1% today. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%, and the rapeseed inventory was exhausted. As of January 9, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 25.1 tons, down 2.2 tons from last week, at a neutral level in the same period historically, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The European rapeseed oil FOB quote is stable at around $1030, and the import profit inversion has widened to around - 1100. The domestic available rapeseed oil supply is tight, and traders are still holding prices. The expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply may cause the rapeseed oil market to fluctuate weakly. However, considering the time needed for rapeseed purchases to arrive after March and the expected release of the US biodiesel final plan in March, which is positive for soybean oil and rapeseed oil, the decline of near - month rapeseed oil contracts may be limited [7]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral trading**: In the short - term, the fats and oils market fluctuates with increased volatility, but there are many uncertain factors and no prominent contradictions. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10]. - **Options**: Wait and see [11]. Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes 8 figures showing the spot basis of different oils, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2017 - 2026, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][18][22]