大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米： 美玉米种植基本结束，美玉米偏弱，中美关税降低，美玉米底部震荡，接下来容 易炒作天气。中国对美玉米回到 15%关税，配额内共计 26%关税，对美国高粱共计 22% 关税，国外玉米进口利润较高，8 月巴西进口价格 1951 元。今日北方港口平仓价稳 1 / 5 锦州港平舱价 元 吨 研究员：刘大勇 期货从业证号： F03107370 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 | | | | | 第一部分 | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | 2025/6/25 | | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2273 | -8 | -0.35% | 19,212 | 2.65% | 108,636 | 2.59% | | C2505 | | 2299 | -14 | -0.61% | ...

1. Report Title and Date - Report title: "Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report" [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] 2. IM (China Securities 1000 Index Futures) 2.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of the CSI 1000 was 6,276.16, up 1.32%. The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 247,386 lots, an increase of 33,750 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 345,077 lots, an increase of 20,157 lots from the previous day. The main contract of IM rose 2.19% to close at 6,119.6 points [4][5]. 2.2 Basis and Annualized Basis Rate - The main contract of IM was at a discount of 156.56 points, up 43.11 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -10.73% [5]. 2.3 Main Seats' Positions - For different contracts (IM2507, IM2508, IM2509, IM2512), the report shows the trading volume, long and short positions, and their changes of the top - ranking member companies [16][18][19]. 3. IF (CSI 300 Index Futures) 3.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of the CSI 300 was 3,960.07, up 1.44%. The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 123,530 lots, an increase of 9,685 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 254,002 lots, an increase of 12,395 lots from the previous day. The main contract of IF rose 1.93% to close at 3,922.8 points [20][21]. 3.2 Basis and Annualized Basis Rate - The main contract of IF was at a discount of 37.27 points, up 14.36 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -3.99% [21]. 3.3 Main Seats' Positions - For different contracts (IF2507, IF2508, IF2509, IF2512), the report shows the trading volume, long and short positions, and their changes of the top - ranking member companies [34][35]. 4. IC (CSI 500 Index Futures) 4.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of the CSI 500 was 5,862.55, up 1.68%. The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 110,445 lots, an increase of 15,870 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 234,477 lots, an increase of 12,841 lots from the previous day. The main contract of IC rose 2.37% to close at 5,759.8 points [39][40]. 4.2 Basis and Annualized Basis Rate - The main contract of IC was at a discount of 102.75 points, up 30.49 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -7.48% [40]. 4.3 Main Seats' Positions - For different contracts (IC2507, IC2508, IC2509, IC2512), the report shows the trading volume, long and short positions, and their changes of the top - ranking member companies [49][50][52]. 5. IH (SSE 50 Index Futures) 5.1 Daily Quotes - The closing price of the SSE 50 was 2,747.73, up 1.17%. The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 62,048 lots, a decrease of 784 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 93,338 lots, an increase of 5,800 lots from the previous day. The main contract of IH rose 1.59% to close at 2,722.6 points [54]. 5.2 Basis and Annualized Basis Rate - The main contract of IH was at a discount of 25.13 points, up 8.79 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -3.87% [55]. 5.3 Main Seats' Positions - For different contracts (IH2507, IH2508, IH2509, IH2512), the report shows the trading volume, long and short positions, and their changes of the top - ranking member companies [68][70]

有色板块研发报告 湖南省碳酸锂产业链调研报告 第一部分 调研背景 银河期货 第 1 页 共 9 页 有色板块研发报告 第二部分 调研纪要 有色板块研发报告 第 2 页 共 9 页 第 3 页 共 9 页 有色板块研发报告 第 4 页 共 9 页 有色板块研发报告 第 5 页 共 9 页 有色板块研发报告 第 6 页 共 9 页 有色板块研发报告 有色板块研发报告 第 8 页 共 9 页 第 7 页 共 9 页 有色板块研发报告 免责声明 联系方式 银河期货有限公司 / 大宗商品研究所 北京：北京市朝阳区建国门外大街 8 号北京 IFC 国际财源中心 A 座 31/33 层 上海：上海市虹口区东大名路 501 号上海白玉兰广场 28 层 网址：www.yhqh.com.cn 电话：400-886-7799 第 9 页 共 9 页 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 地缘方面，当前伊以双方在美国的介入下实现停火，冲突带来的避险快速回落。美国宏 观方面，尽管昨日的 PMI 数据表现出韧性，但美联储官员鲍曼和古尔斯比均暗示可能 在 7 月降息，令美元和美债收益率快速下行，对贵金属实现较好的支撑作用。整体来 看，尽管地缘因素的缓和为黄金带来一定的溢价出清的压力，但市场后续的焦点可能重 新回美国宏观基本面和美联储的货币政策上来，当前关税冲击引起的风险并未消除，美 联储也仍处于降息通道之中，这些因素为贵金属下方提供了良好的支撑。因此短期内预 计贵金属将延续在高位震荡的走势。 【交易策略】 1.单边：以逢低做多思路为主。 2.套利：观望。 3.期权：观望。 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 6 月 24 日星期二 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，伦敦金盘中宽幅震荡，最终收涨 0.01%，收报 3367.95 美元/盎 | ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减幅 持仓量 增减幅 5,710 -11 -0.20% 171,885 -10.50% 349,073 -1.34% 5,744 - 6 -0.10% 1,817 -21.38% 11,080 -5.23% 5,597 -22 -0.39% 22,478 -26.02% 51,737 0.95% 柳州 昆明 湛江 南宁 鲅鱼圈 日照 西安 6090 5860 - 6040 6175 6160 6420 -10 -5 - -10 0 0 0 493 263 - 443 578 563 823 SR07-SR11 价差 涨跌 SR09-SR11 价差 涨跌 SR07-SR09 价差 涨跌 147 1 6 113 215 3 4 5 国别 ICE主力 升贴水 运费 配额内价格 配额外价格 与柳州价差 与日照价差 与盘面价差 巴西进口 16.52 -0.06 36.25 4395 5617 473 543.00 127 泰国进口 16.52 0.83 1 8 4431 5664 42 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of copper ore is tight in 2025, with an expected increment of 20 - 30 tons. However, domestic smelters are still increasing production, and the supply will continue to rise in the second half of the year, but the increment will drop to over 200,000 tons. Overseas, there are both production cuts and new productions [2][6]. - The market generally agrees that consumption will weaken in the second half of the year, with differences mainly in the decline range. The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate between 77,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton, and there is strong support at 74,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton in the medium term [2]. - If the 232 investigation result is implemented, the price spread will narrow, but there is a divergence on whether the price will decline synchronously [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Background - In 2025, the copper price has been constantly disturbed by tariffs and the supply side. The supply of copper ore is tight, and scrap copper has become a key raw material supplement. Due to the impact of US tariff policies, consumption has been advanced, and the apparent consumption growth rate in the first half of the year has exceeded 10%. The COMEX market has attracted global electrolytic copper, causing non - US inventories to drop to an absolute low. The price spreads at home and abroad show a large Back structure, with high delivery risks [4]. 3.2 Research Results Analysis - **Copper ore supply is tight, scrap copper supply is stable**: The supply increment of copper ore in 2025 is about 20 - 30 tons, and smelters' spot orders are at a loss. Domestic smelters increase production, mainly supplemented by long - term supply from overseas mines and increased scrap copper procurement. Overseas, some smelters cut production, while others start new production. Although the supply of scrap copper in China is tight, there is no actual reduction globally, but rather a supply mismatch [6]. - **LME inventory continues to decline, and the import ratio still has room to fall**: After the 232 investigation was announced, the price spread between COMEX and LME widened, and global copper inventory began to transfer. As of June 20, LME inventory decreased from 266,000 tons at the end of February to 100,000 tons. Most of the Russian copper in LME inventory has flowed into China. Before the 232 result is implemented, non - US inventories are difficult to increase effectively. There is a divergence on whether the price will decline synchronously if the 232 result is implemented [8]. - **Consumption weakens in the second half of the year, copper price fluctuates weakly**: The consumption of electrolytic copper grew rapidly in the first half of the year, especially in April. The market generally believes that consumption will weaken in the second half of the year, mainly due to the withdrawal of national subsidies for household appliances, the end of the "trade - in" program for cars, the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, and the pre - consumption. Most believe that copper consumption will weaken marginally but remain resilient, and the price may correct periodically [10]. 3.3 Research Details - **Jiangsu copper rod enterprise**: The company's production and sales are basically hedged, with low inventory. The consumption of copper rods was good in the first half of the year but weakened in May. The processing fee was under pressure, and orders were concentrated in leading enterprises. The stamp duty also affected the company's profitability [12]. - **Jiangsu copper processing enterprise**: The company's production was strong in the first half of the year, with high production rates in March and April. It entered the off - season in June. The company is pessimistic about the demand in the second half of the year, mainly due to the withdrawal of national subsidies and the long payment cycle of customers [13]. - **Zhejiang trading company**: The company's hedging ratio is flexible, and it mainly imports EQ copper. The domestic scrap copper supply is tight, and the company expects the price to correct to 74,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton in the medium term. There is a high risk of a short squeeze in the overseas market [14]. - **Shanghai trading company**: The company's copper trade volume is large, and it mainly imports copper through long - term contracts. The supply of copper concentrate has little increment, but the production of refined copper in China continues to increase. The consumption shows strong reality and weak expectation. The company is bullish on the long - term copper price [14]. - **Another Shanghai trading company**: The company mainly imports copper from "Belt and Road" countries. The shortage of copper concentrate is due to low processing fees. The Russian copper in LME warehouses will be shipped to China in batches. The overall supply and demand of copper are in a tight balance [15]. - **Yet another Shanghai trading company**: The market contradictions mainly come from the conflicts between traders and smelters and between raw materials and elements. The 232 result will affect the price structure, and the company is relatively optimistic about the price [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that methanol will experience a short - term correction. The international methanol device's operating rate has declined, with all Iranian devices halted due to conflicts, significantly tightening supply. However, the domestic coal price continues to fall, coal - to - methanol profits have reached a historical high, and domestic supply remains ample. Although the tight supply situation in the inland has eased to some extent, downstream demand has increased, and the bulk market is oscillating strongly. But with the easing of the Middle East situation, the upward impetus from geopolitical conflicts has temporarily ended [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - The futures market saw a sharp decline, closing at 2379 (-133/-5.29%). - In the spot market, prices vary by region. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia's southern line is priced at 2055 yuan/ton, and the northern line at 1980 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, the Lunan region is priced at 2330 yuan/ton; at ports, the Taicang market is priced at 2620 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information This week, the international methanol production was 803,933 tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 55.11%, a significant drop of 15.80% from last week. Iranian devices have all stopped, while those in North and South America are operating stably, with some production lines shut down due to seasonal gas restrictions. The operating load in Southeast Asia and surrounding areas is low, and an African device has temporarily stopped due to natural gas supply issues [4]. Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The coal - mining start - up rate in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but demand is weak, and raw coal prices are oscillating. The auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest are firm, and the profit from coal - to - methanol is around 700 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol start - up rate remains stable at a high level, and domestic supply is continuously abundant [5]. - **Import Side**: The operating rate of international methanol devices has declined, the US dollar price has continued to rise, and the import parity has widened. Non - Iranian operations are stable, the European and American markets have declined slightly, the price difference between China and Europe has shrunk rapidly, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. As of June, 520,000 tons have been loaded in Iran, Iranian tenders have been suspended, US dollar transactions have weakened, and the expected import volume in July is 1.25 million tons. Hoarders are reluctant to sell, and liquidity is concentrated [5]. - **Demand Side**: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, and their start - up rates have declined. The start - up rate of MTO devices has increased. Multiple MTO devices, such as the 690,000 - ton/year Xingxing MTO device, are operating, but some are operating at less - than - full capacity [5]. - **Inventory**: Import arrivals have decreased, and inventory is starting to be reduced, with a firm basis; inland enterprise inventories have begun to rise. With an increase in arrivals, port inventory will start to accumulate [5]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Do not chase high prices [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]. - **Options**: Sell call options [8].

聚酯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 目录 PX&P TA 本周PX期货价格震荡偏强，PX浮动价&基差月差走强,PX利润扩大。本周镇海炼化、金陵石化降负，盛虹炼化小幅 提负，PX开工率变动不大。7月初，威廉化学200万吨/年、天津石化39万吨有检修计划，福佳大化70万PX检修推 迟到9月，中金石化6月中旬计划外降负至8成运行，原计划6月中旬重启的沙特Petro Rabigh134万吨PX装置推迟 到7月中下旬重启，伊朗石化142万吨PX装置因战争因素停车，韩国GS一套40万吨PX装置目前正在重启，亚洲PX 开工率近期回落，PX流通货源偏紧。 PTA本周供减需增，社会库存下降，基差月差走强，加工费压缩。供应方面，逸盛新材料一套360万吨PTA上周末 降负，恒力一套220万吨PTA停车，嘉兴石化150万吨PTA重启，PTA开工率下降，下游聚酯开工回升，聚酯工厂库 存下降，聚酯利润继续压缩。PTA流通现货依旧偏紧，成本端油价和PX维持偏强格局，PT ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., covering market trends, supply - demand relationships, and trading strategies. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as inventory levels, production capacity changes, and macro - economic indicators on metal prices, and offers corresponding trading suggestions for different metals [7][15][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, up 0.4%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 10,391 lots to 535,600 lots. Spot premiums declined due to end - of - quarter inventory clearance and capital needs [2]. - **Important Information**: First Quantum Minerals halted operations at the accident area of the Zambian Trident project. Sentinel Copper's 2025 copper production guidance is 20 - 230,000 tons. Jiangxi Shangxin's 80,000 - ton copper product project is under environmental assessment. A new study shows that Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz copper project could produce 72,000 tons of copper cathode annually in the first 15 years [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Antofagasta insists on a long - term processing fee of - 15 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased, and the ratio may decline further. Domestic smelters increased refined copper exports, and the spot premium dropped due to end - of - half - year factors. Copper price upside is limited [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, focus on LME delivery risks. For arbitrage, continue to hold the borrow strategy. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][9]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract fell 4 yuan to 2,903 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [11]. - **Important Information**: India's latest alumina deal was 30,000 tons at 366 dollars/ton. Expected end - of - month production capacity may change due to short - term maintenance. Yunnan Aluminum will strengthen bauxite resource acquisition [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although the expected production capacity increase may be affected by short - term maintenance, the short - term surplus of bauxite remains. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate between full cost and cash cost of high - cost production capacity [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [16][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 105 yuan/ton to 20,315 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [19]. - **Important Information**: Israel and Iran agreed to a cease - fire. US and Eurozone PMI data were released. China's May photovoltaic new - installed capacity increased significantly. The Tongliao green - power aluminum project entered the core equipment installation stage [20][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: High aluminum prices led to inventory increases. Low inventory and Middle - East situation uncertainties will affect aluminum prices. After the seasonal off - season in August, low - inventory - driven price differentials may expand [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. For arbitrage, consider a 9 - 12 positive spread later. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 19,625 yuan/ton. Spot prices remained stable [27]. - **Important Information**: May automobile production and sales increased, and new - energy vehicle production and sales grew significantly. Guizhou Guangyu plans a 200,000 - ton recycled aluminum project [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic recycled casting aluminum alloy production slightly decreased, and the market lacks continuous driving forces. Prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices. For arbitrage, consider trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [30][31]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 rose 0.85% to 21,920 yuan/ton. Spot premiums remained stable, but downstream purchasing willingness was low [34]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: Under macro - influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Domestic zinc consumption is in the off - season, and supply has increased significantly in June. Zinc prices may decline with inventory accumulation [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting in the far - month contracts at high prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [37]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2508 rose 0.44% to 16,960 yuan/ton. Spot prices and downstream battery production enterprises' procurement were stable [38]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory decreased [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic primary lead smelter operating rates are high, but lead concentrate imports decreased. Recycled lead smelters are in losses. Supply may tighten, and demand is in the off - season. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider going long in the far - month contracts at low prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [43]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2508 fell 420 to 117,630 yuan/ton. Spot premiums of different nickel types changed [45]. - **Important Information**: The wet - process phase III ONC project's tailings pond in Indonesia was completed. LME revised lending rules. Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire [46][47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The easing of the Middle - East situation and weakening demand in June led to a supply - demand imbalance. LME inventory increased, and nickel prices are expected to decline and test the bottom again [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, consider selling call options [49][52]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract fell 35 to 12,440 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [54]. - **Important Information**: World stainless steel crude steel production in Q1 2025 increased year - on - year. Qing Shan added a public warehouse in Foshan, and its July high - carbon ferrochrome long - term procurement price was flat [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: US tariffs on steel appliances will affect demand. Supply reduction by Chinese and Indonesian steel mills is insufficient, and inventory is difficult to reduce. Nickel ore prices are firm, but NPI prices are falling [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to continue to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [57][58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai Tin 2507 contract rose 780 to 263,800 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased, but trading was light [60]. - **Important Information**: Global PMI data were released, and Congo - Kinshasa and Rwanda will sign a peace agreement [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: Shanghai Tin continued to fluctuate within a range. Tin ore supply is currently tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness expectation has eased. Demand is in the off - season [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, pay attention to the tin ore resumption rhythm. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [64][65]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 7,485 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. Spot prices were stable [66][67]. - **Important Information**: May's social electricity consumption data were released [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although demand increased in June, production also increased. The supply - demand surplus situation remains. Futures prices rebounded due to market sentiment and downstream procurement. Prices may decline as production increases [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting later. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, participate in Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads [71]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 31,085 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. Spot prices declined [73]. - **Important Information**: China's new photovoltaic and wind power installed capacities from January to May 2025 increased significantly [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: In June, polysilicon production increased, and inventory decreased. Silicon wafer prices fell, and spot prices are under pressure. The futures market logic has changed, and prices are expected to decline [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [78]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,800 to 60,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices of different types of lithium carbonate declined [79]. - **Important Information**: IEA predicted global lithium production. Relevant departments promoted new - energy vehicle safety management and consumption. A lithium - boron mining project in Tibet was approved [80][81]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market rumors and warrant cancellations led to a price rebound. New - energy vehicle sales may be stimulated, but the growth rate may slow down. Lithium salt plants may resume production in July, and inventory is expected to increase [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting on rebounds. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that precious metals will continue to trade in a high - level range in the short term. Although the easing of geopolitical factors has put pressure on gold due to the clearing of risk premiums, the market's focus may shift back to the US macro - fundamentals and the Fed's monetary policy. The risks caused by tariff shocks remain, and the Fed is still in an interest - rate cut cycle, which provides strong support for precious metals [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals market: Due to the confirmed cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the risk premium in the market was cleared. London gold fell slightly to around $3327, and London silver fluctuated within a narrow range at around $36.14. Driven by external markets, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.263% at 771.86 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.09% at 8739 yuan/kilogram. Attention is drawn to Fed Chairman Powell's semi - annual monetary policy report testimony [3]. - Dollar index: The dollar index continued to decline and was trading around 98.13 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield also declined and was trading around 4.33% [5]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate rose and was trading around 7.1778 [6]. Important Information - Geopolitical conflicts: Iran launched a retaliatory missile strike on a US air base in Qatar. Trump thanked Iran for the advance notice and called for peace. Iranian officials said they would continue to retaliate against US attacks and reiterated that if there were to be negotiations, the US must stop its attacks on Iran. Trump announced a full cease - fire between Israel and Iran [7]. - US macro data: The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in June was 52 (expected 51, previous value 52), and the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1 (expected 52.9, previous value 53.7) [7]. - Fed views: Fed official Bowman said that if inflation pressures are under control, she would support an early rate cut at the next meeting to bring the policy rate closer to a neutral level and maintain a healthy labor market. Fed's Goolsbee emphasized the importance of paying attention to the moderate performance of economic data during the current transition period and that if the impact of trade policies fades, the Fed should continue to cut rates [7]. - Fed watch: The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 79.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut has slightly increased to 20.7%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 16.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 67.1%. The market currently bets that the Fed will cut rates once in September and once in December this year [8][9]. Logical Analysis Geopolitically, the temporary cease - fire between Israel and Iran has led to a decline in risk - aversion sentiment. In terms of the US macro - economy, although the PMI data showed resilience, Fed officials' hints of a possible rate cut in July caused the US dollar and Treasury yields to decline rapidly, which supported precious metals. Overall, despite the pressure on gold from the clearing of risk premiums due to geopolitical easing, the market's focus may shift back to the US macro - fundamentals and the Fed's monetary policy, and the risks caused by tariff shocks and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support precious metals [10]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips [11]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [12]. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [13]. Data Reference - The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, futures - spot trends, domestic - foreign price differences, gold - silver ratios, ETF holdings, futures open interest, trading volumes, TD data, and the relationship between Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates [15][16][17].