Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC futures market continues to show a volatile and weak trend, with significant divergence in the market regarding the intensity of cargo rush. The spot freight rate has reached an inflection point, and attention should be paid to the subsequent booking situation. The cancellation of export tax - rebates before April 1st is expected to lead to a short - term cargo rush, which is favorable for near - term contracts and unfavorable for far - term contracts. Geopolitical factors and seasonal patterns also have an impact on the market [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - On January 14th, the EC2604 contract closed at 1230.5 points, up 2.57% from the previous day. The SCFIS European line index on January 14th was 1956.39 points, up 8.94% week - on - week, in line with market expectations. Mainstream shipping companies have successively lowered their spot quotes for the second half of January. The spot freight rate has shown an inflection point, and the cargo volume is still at a high level but may start to decline seasonally. Geopolitical factors such as the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea and US tariffs on Iran also affect the market sentiment [5][6] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Due to many short - term disturbances and divergence in the cargo rush intensity, it is recommended to wait and see [7] - Arbitrage: Maintain the idea of buying on dips for the 6 - 10 positive spread [8] 2. Industry News - On January 13, 2026, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. (601919) announced the order of twelve 18,000 TEU container ships and six 3000 TEU container ships. The Hamas delegation has arrived in Cairo, Egypt, for cease - fire negotiations [9][10] 3. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including SCFIS European and US West line indexes, SCFI comprehensive index, container freight rates for different routes, and the basis of EC02 and EC04 contracts [12][14][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical events, and policy changes. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the stock index fluctuated significantly. Although there were short - term rebounds, the overall market closed down. The basis of each variety continued to rise, and the discount of stock index futures continued to narrow, indicating that futures investors are still optimistic about the future market. It is recommended to go long on IC and IM on dips, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage on IM/IC 2606 + short ETF, and use bull spreads for options [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Tuesday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, but the market capital continued to converge, which put pressure on the short - end. In the short term, although market sentiment has recovered, it is not advisable to be overly optimistic. It is recommended to stop profit on previous long positions and then wait and see. For cash bond holders, they can consider selling hedges. For arbitrage, it is recommended to try shorting the basis of the 30 - year active bond [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply pressure increases, and the price of US soybeans continues to decline. It is recommended to have a short - term bearish view, conduct M79 reverse arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [25][26]. - **Sugar**: Both domestic and international sugar prices are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to expect international sugar prices to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and domestic sugar prices to oscillate within a range. Consider buying at the lower end and selling at the upper end of the range, and sell put options [27][30][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The US biodiesel sector is disturbed, and the price of US soybean oil has increased significantly. In the short term, the oil market oscillates with increased volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [31][33]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn report shows increased production, and the short - term price is weak. The spot price of corn is currently stable but may face pressure later. It is recommended to go long on the 03 US corn contract after it stabilizes, try short - selling the 03 corn contract, and widen the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts [35][36]. - **Hogs**: The overall slaughter increases, but the spot price continues to rise. It is recommended to have a short - selling view, wait and see for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [37][38]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on the 05 peanut contract on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [39][41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand has improved, and the egg price is stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to expect the near - month contract to oscillate weakly, and consider going long on the far - month May contract on dips [42][45]. - **Apples**: The cold - storage inventory is low, and the apple price is firm. It is recommended to hold long positions in the May contract and short the October contract, and conduct long - May and short - October arbitrage [46][48][49]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales progress is fast, and the cotton price oscillates. It is recommended to expect the US cotton to oscillate in the short term, and go long on Zhengzhou cotton on dips [50][52]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products start to accumulate inventory, and the steel price continues to oscillate. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend, short the hot - rolled coil - coking coal ratio on rallies, and continue to hold the short - hot - rolled coil and long - rebar spread [55][56]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates sharply, and it is recommended to be cautious. It is expected to continue to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [57][59]. - **Iron Ore**: Market expectations are volatile, and the iron ore price is considered bearish at high levels. It is recommended to short lightly at high levels [60][63][64]. - **Ferroalloys**: Driven by cost, the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended to expect a short - term strengthening trend due to improved supply - demand and cost factors, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle options [66][67][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Inflation is moderate, and geopolitical conflicts drive the prices of gold and silver to new highs. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the previous high at the end of December and in silver based on the support near the previous high on the 7th of this month [70][73][74]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The slowdown of CPI growth eases the macro - pressure on precious metals. It is recommended to go long on platinum on dips, and be cautious about going long on palladium before the result of the 232 investigation is announced [75][76][77]. - **Copper**: Short - term fluctuations intensify, but the upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold long positions entered at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton [78][79]. - **Alumina**: The contradiction between commodity sentiment and fundamentals expands price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [81][82]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It runs strongly with oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [83][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [87]. - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side. It is recommended for conservative investors to wait and see, and for aggressive investors to hold short positions with strict position control [89][91]. - **Lead**: Take partial profit on long positions and raise the stop - loss line. It is recommended to take partial profit on profitable long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options appropriately [93][96]. - **Nickel**: It follows the correction of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to have a long - term long view after the correction stabilizes [97][98][99]. - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the nickel price. It is recommended to go long on dips after the correction stabilizes [99][101]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short on rallies. It is recommended to short on rallies as the medium - term demand is weak [102]. - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious due to the current vacuum period of spot trading [103][105]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The risk of over - rise increases. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average [106][107][109]. - **Tin**: The supply vulnerability is prominent, and the tin price reaches a new high. It is recommended to be vigilant against the selling pressure after the digestion of macro - positive sentiment [110][111][112]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: Maersk lowers the price for wk5, and there are still differences in the intensity of rush - shipping. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and conduct positive arbitrage on the 6 - 10 spread [113][114][115]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to drive the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and expect an oscillating and strengthening trend. Also, note that domestic gasoline is strong and diesel is weak, and the crude oil calendar spread is strong [116][118]. - **Asphalt**: Cost support is favorable, but supply and demand are weak. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation [118][120]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend and hold the FU59 positive spread [121][124][125]. - **Natural Gas**: TTF/JKM rebounds, and HH oscillates weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the third - quarter TTF and JKM contracts and sell out - of - the - money call options on TTF or JKM [126][127][129]. - **LPG**: There is a strong current situation and weak expectations. It is recommended to have a short - term long and long - term short view and pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event [129][132][133]. - **PX&PTA**: Downstream production cuts increase, and geopolitical disturbances strengthen cost support. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation and conduct positive arbitrage on the 3 and 5 contracts [133][134][135]. - **BZ&EB**: Pure benzene is expected to reduce supply, and styrene is boosted by exports. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for pure benzene and conduct long - styrene and short - pure - benzene arbitrage [136][137]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Downstream production cuts increase, and the price has limited upside. It is recommended to expect a weak oscillation and sell call options [138][140]. - **Short - Fiber**: The purchasing sentiment is cautious, and the processing margin is under pressure. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation [140][142]. - **Bottle Chips**: Some maintenance device plans are announced. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation [142][144]. - **Propylene**: It oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation [144][146][147]. - **Plastic PP**: Hold long positions. It is recommended to hold long positions in the L 2605 contract, try to go long on the PP 2605 contract, and sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract [148][152]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda weakens. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend and wait and see [153][155]. - **PVC**: It mainly oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see [155][157]. - **Soda Ash**: It has a wide - range oscillation this week. It is recommended to short on rallies during the wide - range oscillation and sell out - of - the - money call options on the far - month high [158][160]. - **Glass**: The futures price falls. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation this week, short on rallies, conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage, and sell call options [160][164]. - **Methanol**: It runs firmly. It is recommended to avoid short positions and go long with attention to the Middle East situation [165][167]. - **Urea**: It runs weakly. It is recommended to short lightly and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread [167][169][170]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates widely at a high level. It is recommended to hold short positions [172][174][175]. - **Log**: The spot price rebounds slightly. It is recommended for aggressive investors to buy a small amount of long positions and pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse arbitrage [176][178][179]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of cultural paper. It is recommended to wait and see and sell the OP2602 - C - 4200 option [179][180][182]. - **Natural Rubber**: The import value of Thai rubber machinery decreases. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU 05 contract, try to go long on the NR 03 contract, and hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread [183][185]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The decline of the US dollar index sets a record. It is recommended to try to go long on the BR 03 contract and hold the BR2603 - NR2603 spread [186][188].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the quantity of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to be weak and volatile, while the far - month May contract can be considered for building long positions at low prices as the supply pressure eases [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Information - The average price of eggs in the main production areas today is 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.62 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin. The mainstream egg prices across the country mostly continued to rise today [4]. - In December, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5% year - on - year, lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in December was about 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [5]. - In the week of December 18, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was about 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age was 486 days, the same as the previous week [5]. - As of the week of December 18, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,023 tons, with little change from the previous week and at a low level over the years [5]. - As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On December 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - As of the week of December 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly less than the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly more than the previous week [6]. - Today, the price of culled chickens across the country increased, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.33 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [7]. Trading Logic - The recent increase in the quantity of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to be weak and volatile, while the far - month May contract can be considered for building long positions at low prices as the supply pressure eases [8]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term February contract is expected to fluctuate within a range. Consider building long positions in the far - month May contract at low prices [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market remain strong due to supportive factors such as the expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and expansion expectations of textile mills in Xinjiang. However, the cotton price has recently experienced a significant correction, and it is necessary to observe whether it can break through the 20 - day line. The short - term trend of US cotton is expected to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton may have a short - term correction risk [4][5][6] - The overall price of domestic pure - cotton yarn remains stable, but the actual transaction center has moved down slightly, and the market trading atmosphere is still weak. The开机 rate of spinning mills in the inland region has declined, while that in Xinjiang remains high. The downstream fabric mills have limited new orders, high inventory, and low acceptance of high - priced yarn, and the market trading activity is further suppressed by the approaching Spring Festival [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), prices increased, with CF05 having the largest increase of 135. For yarn futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), prices also showed an upward trend, except for CY01 which remained unchanged. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed [2] - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 147 yuan/ton, while the price of Cot A remained at 74.45 cents/pound. The price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70, and other spot prices remained mostly stable. In terms of spreads, there were changes in cotton and yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads [2] Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: According to USDA data, the global cotton production in 25/26 is 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from last month; total demand increased by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 16.22 million tons. As of January 10, the cotton planting progress in Brazil in 2025/26 was 31.9%, slower than the same period last year and the three - year average. As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton accounted for 89.2% of the estimated annual production, slower than the same period last year [4] - **Trading Logic**: The expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang has been gradually confirmed, and the sales progress is fast. With improved Sino - US relations and expansion expectations of textile mills in Xinjiang, the cotton fundamentals are strong. However, the price has recently corrected, and it is necessary to observe the 20 - day line [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For cotton, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the short - term trend of US cotton is expected to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton may have a short - term correction risk. For arbitrage and options, a wait - and - see approach is also recommended [6][7] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The overall price of domestic pure - cotton yarn remains stable, but the transaction is weak. The开机 rate of inland spinning mills has declined, while that in Xinjiang remains high. Downstream fabric mills have limited new orders, high inventory, and low acceptance of high - priced yarn. The cotton fabric market has weak trading, and most weavers expect to have an early holiday and are pessimistic about the market [8] Options - **Option Data**: Information such as the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, and other parameters of cotton option contracts is provided. The 10 - day historical volatility of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased [10][11] - **Option Strategy**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended [12] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the price spread between domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, the spread between yarn and cotton contracts, and the inter - period spread of cotton contracts [14][17][21]

纯苯苯乙烯产业链期货周报 研究员：温健翔 从业资格证号： F03118724 投资咨询资格证号： Z0022792 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 17 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 1.单边：纯苯继续累库，施压市场心态，苯乙烯估值较低，短期受市场情绪影响反弹预计震荡偏强。 2.套利：空纯苯多苯乙烯。 3.期权：观望。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 n 供应方面，本月中下旬大连福佳大化歧化装置计划重启，1月中下旬中化泉州51万吨、上海石化12万吨、云南石化8万吨纯苯检修装置计划重 启，后期国内炼厂计划检修装置不多，前期新投产的新装置稳定运行，纯苯进口到港相对充裕，港口库存延续上升，下游利润走弱开工下降， 原料库存整体偏高，纯苯供需格局整体宽松。 n 苯乙烯： n 苯乙烯港口库存延续高位。供应方面，天津渤化45万吨/年苯乙烯装置计划外停工，苯乙烯现货基差走强，辽宁宝来35万吨/年苯乙烯检修装 置目前已重启，恒力石化72万吨苯乙烯检修计划或延期至元旦后，中化泉州45万吨苯乙烯检修装置计划检修至2月末，苯乙烯开工率回升缓 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, while domestic sugar prices will fluctuate within a range. One can consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is recommended [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,266, down 25 (-0.47%), with a trading volume of 20,168 (up 4309) and an open interest of 80,971 (up 2819); SR01 closed at 5,288, down 28 (-0.53%), with a trading volume of 170 (down 486) and an open interest of 7,951 (down 137); SR05 closed at 5,253, down 32 (-0.61%), with a trading volume of 221,246 (up 30716) and an open interest of 429,949 (down 1446) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5390, 5230, 5660, 5360, 5530, 5545, and 5810 respectively, with no change. The corresponding basis were 137, - 23, 407, 107, 277, 292, and 557 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: SR05 - SR01 spread was - 35 (down 4), SR09 - SR05 spread was 13 (up 7), and SR09 - SR01 spread was - 22 (up 3) [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.06, and a freight of 31.75, the in - quota price was 3988, the out - of - quota price was 5065, the spread with Liuzhou was 325, the spread with Rizhao was 480, and the spread with the futures market was 223. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4038, the out - of - quota price was 5130, the spread with Liuzhou was 260, the spread with Rizhao was 415, and the spread with the futures market was 158 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: Brazil exported 740,467.97 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export of 123,411.33 tons, a 32% increase compared to the daily average export in January of the previous year. The total export in January of the previous year was 2,062,261.69 tons. The USDA estimated that the total sugar production in the US in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season would be 9.381 million short tons, including 5.102 million short tons of beet sugar and 4.279 million short tons of cane sugar, and the sugar inventory/consumption ratio was estimated to be 15.8%. In Xinjiang, compared with 2024, the 2025 beet showed characteristics of a slight increase in yield per mu (0.23%), an increase in cost (2.77%), a decrease in selling price (-10.57%), and a decrease in income. The net profit per mu decreased by 43.70%, and the cash income per mu decreased by 30.76% [5][6]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, as Brazilian sugarcane is expected to gradually enter the harvest season, the supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Most sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle. India's double - week production is high, and the increase may exceed expectations, which has a negative impact on international sugar prices. However, as sugar prices have fallen to a low level and commodities are generally strong, US sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. Domestically, the processing cost of white sugar is high, with most sugar mills in Guangxi having a cost of over 5400 yuan/ton. Recently, the US sugar on the external market shows signs of bottom - building, and the out - of - quota cost of importing Brazilian sugar is between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton, which provides some support to the white sugar price. However, considering that China is in the peak sugar - pressing season and there is still some sales pressure, and there is an expected increase in global sugar production in the 2025/26 season, white sugar is expected to face significant pressure near the upper oscillation platform. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, international sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and domestic white sugar prices will fluctuate within a range, so one can consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is recommended [8][9]. 3.3 Related Drawings The report includes multiple charts such as monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot spread, white sugar basis, and futures spreads, which visually present the changes in sugar - related data over time [10][11][15] etc.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PX market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with the PTA 3 and 5 contract positive spread in the arbitrage strategy [8] - The MEG market is expected to be volatile and slightly weaker, with a strategy of selling call options [8] - The PF and PR markets are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a positive spread strategy for PF and a wait - and - see strategy for PR in the arbitrage aspect [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX&PTA**: An 820,000 - ton PX unit in the Middle East will undergo a 40 - 50 - day maintenance in January. Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX is expected to reduce its load by about 10%. PX profits remain good, and the start - up rate is high. The PTA start - up rate changes little, downstream polyester production cuts increase, and the price upward drive weakens. The trading strategy is a single - sided long - term bullish view, a positive spread for the 3 and 5 contracts in arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [8] - **MEG**: Hainan Refining and Fulei are operating at reduced loads. The 500,000 - ton unit of Fude Energy is expected to restart at the end of January. The import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, and downstream polyester production cuts increase. The trading strategy is a single - sided bearish view, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options [8] - **PF**: Some short - fiber plants plan to have maintenance from late January to early February. The processing margin has not improved significantly, and downstream sentiment is bearish. The trading strategy is a single - sided bullish view, a positive spread in arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [8] - **PR**: Some bottle - chip plants have maintenance plans. The short - term market price is expected to follow raw material costs. The trading strategy is a single - sided bullish view, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [8] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 Polyester - **Production and Sales**: The overall production and sales of filament are weak, the production and sales of short - fiber are differentiated, and the transaction atmosphere of bottle - chips is average. The polyester start - up rate remains at 90.8% [13] - **Terminal Demand**: The terminal demand is weak. The comprehensive start - up rate of texturing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has decreased by 2% to 72%, and that of looms has decreased by 3% to 56%, while the dyeing start - up rate remains unchanged at 69% [15] - **Filament**: The production and sales of polyester filament are weak, the start - up rate has increased by 0.7% to 90.2%, and the average inventory days have increased by 1.3 days to 16.3 days [17] - **Bottle - chips**: The load of bottle - chips has increased by 0.8% to 74.8%, and the inventory has been reduced smoothly, but downstream customers are more on the sidelines. Multiple plants have maintenance plans [19] - **Short - fiber**: The production and sales of short - fiber are differentiated, the demand is weak, and the factory inventory has decreased by 0.3 days to 9.4 days. The processing fee is under pressure, and some plants plan to have Spring Festival maintenance [25] 2.2 PX - The PX market is under pressure due to the release of polyester maintenance plans. The spot market and floating prices have declined, and the paper - cargo spreads have changed [26] 2.3 PTA - The 1.25 - million - ton Ineos unit is operating at 70% load and plans to have maintenance in mid - month, with an estimated restart in early March. The PTA start - up rate changes little, and the price upward drive weakens. The load has increased by 0.1% to 78.2% [28] 2.4 MEG - The inventory in the main ports of East China is about 725,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory in the first quarter. The spot basis and futures basis are at a discount [30] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 PX - **Price and Spread**: Data on Brent crude oil futures, PX CFR China, PXN, and PX - MX are presented [36] - **Disproportionation and Blending Price Spread & Profit**: Data on US gasoline and crude oil inventories, toluene blending price spread, disproportionation profit, and xylene blending and PX production spread are presented [38] - **Supply and Demand**: Data on China and Asia's PX load and China's PTA load are presented [45] 3.2 PTA - **Price and Profit**: Data on PTA spot price, profit, load index, and polyester load are presented [48] 3.3 MEG - **Price**: Data on the East China ethylene glycol market price, Ordos 5500K coal price, East China methanol ex - tank price, and Northeast Asian ethylene price are presented [52] - **Profit**: Data on ethylene glycol oil - based profit, MTO profit, ethylene monomer production profit, and ethylene glycol coal - based profit are presented [54] 3.4 Polyester - **Profit**: Data on POY, DTY, FDY, bottle - chip, and short - fiber profits are presented [56] - **Supply**: Data on polyester load, bottle - chip load, filament load, short - fiber load, filament and short - fiber inventory days, and the start - up rates of looms and texturing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are presented [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term peanut spot prices are relatively stable, with the prices in Henan being stable and those in Northeast China being weak. The futures will continue to fluctuate weakly. The spot prices of peanut oil and peanut meal are stable, and the theoretical profit of oil mills is good. It is recommended to buy 05 peanuts at low prices in the short - term, wait and see for the month - spread, and sell pk603 - P - 8200 at high prices for options [3][5][7][8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data Futures Disk - PK604 closed at 7852, down 8 (-0.10%), with a trading volume of 20,312 (down 35.37%) and an open interest of 34,637 (down 0.94%) [1] - PK610 closed at 8246, down 16 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 513 (up 155.22%) and an open interest of 2,639 (up 7.32%) [1] - PK601 had no valid closing price and trading volume data, with an open interest of 1,012 (down 3.80%) [1] Spot and Basis - Spot prices: Henan Nanyang was 7400, Shandong Jining and Linyi were 8400, Rizhao peanut meal was 3200, Rizhao soybean meal was 3110, peanut oil was 14350, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8420. The price of Rizhao soybean meal decreased by 10, and that of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil increased by 100, while others remained unchanged [1] - Basis: The basis of Henan Nanyang was - 452, and that of Shandong Jining and Linyi was 548. The difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was - 6, and the difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 5930 [1] Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices: In Northeast China, the price of 308 general peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.6 yuan/jin (stable), and that in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.55 yuan/jin (down 0.05 yuan/jin). In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts was 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin (stable), and in Junan, Shandong it was 3.5 yuan/jin (stable). Imported peanut prices were stable, with Sudan refined rice at 8600 yuan/ton, Brazilian new rice at 9200 yuan/ton, and Indian specification rice 50/60 at 8000 yuan/ton [3] - Peanut oil prices: The purchase price of some peanut oil mills was stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 6900 - 7900 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 7780 yuan/ton. The price of domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was stable at 14300 yuan/ton, and the market price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was stable at 16500 yuan/ton [3] - By - product prices: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal dropped to 3110 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). The price difference per unit protein between peanut meal and soybean meal was low, and peanut meal was relatively strong in the short - term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal priced at 3100 yuan/ton [5] Third Part: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The 05 peanut contract will fluctuate at the bottom, and short - term long positions can be taken at low prices [8] - Month - spread: Wait and see [9] - Options: Sell pk603 - P - 8200 at high prices [10] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contract, the price difference between peanut 4 - 10 contracts, and the price difference between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [12][19][21]

Group 1: Market Information - Shanghai Zhongtian rebar price is 3270 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar price is 3170 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil price is 3290 yuan (+10), Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil price is 3190 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The steel futures market maintained a volatile trend today, with a slight increase in the morning and a correction in the afternoon. The volatility further decreased. The overall spot steel trading volume was generally weak, mainly driven by rigid demand at low prices, with less speculative and futures-spot trading [5] - Last week, the output of the five major steel products increased, and the molten iron output continued to rise due to the recovery of profit levels. The total steel inventory started to accumulate, marking an inflection point. However, the hot-rolled coil inventory continued to decline, with inventory shifting from factory warehouses to social warehouses. The rebar inventory accumulated overall [5] - Affected by seasonality, the apparent demand for building materials further weakened, and the funds available to downstream construction sites decreased. The demand for hot-rolled coils slightly declined, but there was a pre-holiday restocking demand in the manufacturing industry. Steel exports in January remained strong [5] - On the raw material side, the coal mine inventory decreased. Driven by market news, the commodity market recently experienced a significant increase, which led to a rise in steel prices. The structural shortage of PB fines has not been resolved, and the first quarter is also the traditional off-season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills have a rigid demand for restocking, providing cost support [5] - The continuous resumption of molten iron production has also limited the further upward space for steel prices. Affected by the increasing overseas macro risks, market sentiment is relatively strong. In the short term, steel prices will maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend, but the upward space is limited. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of macro news on the market. Future attention should also be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Steel prices will maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend, but the upward space is limited, and the overall trend will follow macro sentiment [6] - Arbitrage trading: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position on the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [6] - Options trading: It is recommended to wait and see [6] Group 4: Important Information - From January 5th to January 11th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.1 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 53% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.4% [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 18th symposium for manufacturing enterprises. Representatives from 12 key industries and industry associations participated in the meeting. The meeting emphasized strengthening self-discipline, creating a healthy ecosystem, and contributing to the development of new industrialization and the construction of a manufacturing powerhouse [8][9]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Agricultural Products R & D Report - Pig Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: January 13, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the live - pig market remains sufficient, with the subsequent supply pressure likely to continue to be reflected, and the overall upward space of pig prices is limited. The long - term trend of spot and futures prices is expected to be downward [3][4]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Prices - Today, the average spot price of live pigs is 12.86 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg from yesterday. The prices in different regions show varying degrees of rise or fall [3]. Futures Prices - Futures prices are in a volatile state. For example, LH01 is 12,160 yuan, up 50 yuan from yesterday; LH03 is 11,795 yuan, up 60 yuan from yesterday [3]. Piglet and Sow Prices - The price of piglets this week is 307 yuan, an increase of 45 yuan from last week; the price of sows is 1557 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan from last week [3]. Breeding Profits - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising is - 11.54 yuan/head, an increase of 23.05 yuan compared with yesterday; the spot breeding profit of purchasing piglets is - 2.31 yuan/head, an increase of 46.03 yuan compared with yesterday [3]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume is 186,620 heads today, a decrease of 2190 heads compared with yesterday [3]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between different contracts and different types of pigs show different changes. For example, LH7 - 9 is - 920 yuan today, a decrease of 15 yuan from yesterday [3]. Group 5: Market Analysis - The scale enterprise's live - pig出栏量 has increased significantly recently, and the ordinary farmers' enthusiasm for selling pigs has also improved. The re - fattening has continued to enter the market, but the subsequent entry volume may decrease. The current live - pig出栏 weight remains high, which has put some pressure on pig prices [3]. - The short - term supply pressure of the live - pig market is limited, and the price may have certain support. However, in the medium - term, due to the high inventory, the supply pressure is obvious, and the price is expected to decline [4]. Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish strategy. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]