纯苯苯乙烯产业链期货周报 研究员：温健翔 从业资格证号： F03118724 投资咨询资格证号： Z0022792 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 17 GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 1.单边：纯苯继续累库，施压市场心态，苯乙烯估值较低，短期受市场情绪影响反弹预计震荡偏强。 2.套利：空纯苯多苯乙烯。 3.期权：观望。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 n 供应方面，本月中下旬大连福佳大化歧化装置计划重启，1月中下旬中化泉州51万吨、上海石化12万吨、云南石化8万吨纯苯检修装置计划重 启，后期国内炼厂计划检修装置不多，前期新投产的新装置稳定运行，纯苯进口到港相对充裕，港口库存延续上升，下游利润走弱开工下降， 原料库存整体偏高，纯苯供需格局整体宽松。 n 苯乙烯： n 苯乙烯港口库存延续高位。供应方面，天津渤化45万吨/年苯乙烯装置计划外停工，苯乙烯现货基差走强，辽宁宝来35万吨/年苯乙烯检修装 置目前已重启，恒力石化72万吨苯乙烯检修计划或延期至元旦后，中化泉州45万吨苯乙烯检修装置计划检修至2月末，苯乙烯开工率回升缓 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, while domestic sugar prices will fluctuate within a range. One can consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is recommended [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,266, down 25 (-0.47%), with a trading volume of 20,168 (up 4309) and an open interest of 80,971 (up 2819); SR01 closed at 5,288, down 28 (-0.53%), with a trading volume of 170 (down 486) and an open interest of 7,951 (down 137); SR05 closed at 5,253, down 32 (-0.61%), with a trading volume of 221,246 (up 30716) and an open interest of 429,949 (down 1446) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5390, 5230, 5660, 5360, 5530, 5545, and 5810 respectively, with no change. The corresponding basis were 137, - 23, 407, 107, 277, 292, and 557 [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: SR05 - SR01 spread was - 35 (down 4), SR09 - SR05 spread was 13 (up 7), and SR09 - SR01 spread was - 22 (up 3) [3]. - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.06, and a freight of 31.75, the in - quota price was 3988, the out - of - quota price was 5065, the spread with Liuzhou was 325, the spread with Rizhao was 480, and the spread with the futures market was 223. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4038, the out - of - quota price was 5130, the spread with Liuzhou was 260, the spread with Rizhao was 415, and the spread with the futures market was 158 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: Brazil exported 740,467.97 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export of 123,411.33 tons, a 32% increase compared to the daily average export in January of the previous year. The total export in January of the previous year was 2,062,261.69 tons. The USDA estimated that the total sugar production in the US in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season would be 9.381 million short tons, including 5.102 million short tons of beet sugar and 4.279 million short tons of cane sugar, and the sugar inventory/consumption ratio was estimated to be 15.8%. In Xinjiang, compared with 2024, the 2025 beet showed characteristics of a slight increase in yield per mu (0.23%), an increase in cost (2.77%), a decrease in selling price (-10.57%), and a decrease in income. The net profit per mu decreased by 43.70%, and the cash income per mu decreased by 30.76% [5][6]. - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, as Brazilian sugarcane is expected to gradually enter the harvest season, the supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Most sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle. India's double - week production is high, and the increase may exceed expectations, which has a negative impact on international sugar prices. However, as sugar prices have fallen to a low level and commodities are generally strong, US sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. Domestically, the processing cost of white sugar is high, with most sugar mills in Guangxi having a cost of over 5400 yuan/ton. Recently, the US sugar on the external market shows signs of bottom - building, and the out - of - quota cost of importing Brazilian sugar is between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton, which provides some support to the white sugar price. However, considering that China is in the peak sugar - pressing season and there is still some sales pressure, and there is an expected increase in global sugar production in the 2025/26 season, white sugar is expected to face significant pressure near the upper oscillation platform. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, international sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and domestic white sugar prices will fluctuate within a range, so one can consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is recommended [8][9]. 3.3 Related Drawings The report includes multiple charts such as monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot spread, white sugar basis, and futures spreads, which visually present the changes in sugar - related data over time [10][11][15] etc.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PX market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with the PTA 3 and 5 contract positive spread in the arbitrage strategy [8] - The MEG market is expected to be volatile and slightly weaker, with a strategy of selling call options [8] - The PF and PR markets are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a positive spread strategy for PF and a wait - and - see strategy for PR in the arbitrage aspect [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX&PTA**: An 820,000 - ton PX unit in the Middle East will undergo a 40 - 50 - day maintenance in January. Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX is expected to reduce its load by about 10%. PX profits remain good, and the start - up rate is high. The PTA start - up rate changes little, downstream polyester production cuts increase, and the price upward drive weakens. The trading strategy is a single - sided long - term bullish view, a positive spread for the 3 and 5 contracts in arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [8] - **MEG**: Hainan Refining and Fulei are operating at reduced loads. The 500,000 - ton unit of Fude Energy is expected to restart at the end of January. The import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, and downstream polyester production cuts increase. The trading strategy is a single - sided bearish view, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options [8] - **PF**: Some short - fiber plants plan to have maintenance from late January to early February. The processing margin has not improved significantly, and downstream sentiment is bearish. The trading strategy is a single - sided bullish view, a positive spread in arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [8] - **PR**: Some bottle - chip plants have maintenance plans. The short - term market price is expected to follow raw material costs. The trading strategy is a single - sided bullish view, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [8] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 Polyester - **Production and Sales**: The overall production and sales of filament are weak, the production and sales of short - fiber are differentiated, and the transaction atmosphere of bottle - chips is average. The polyester start - up rate remains at 90.8% [13] - **Terminal Demand**: The terminal demand is weak. The comprehensive start - up rate of texturing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has decreased by 2% to 72%, and that of looms has decreased by 3% to 56%, while the dyeing start - up rate remains unchanged at 69% [15] - **Filament**: The production and sales of polyester filament are weak, the start - up rate has increased by 0.7% to 90.2%, and the average inventory days have increased by 1.3 days to 16.3 days [17] - **Bottle - chips**: The load of bottle - chips has increased by 0.8% to 74.8%, and the inventory has been reduced smoothly, but downstream customers are more on the sidelines. Multiple plants have maintenance plans [19] - **Short - fiber**: The production and sales of short - fiber are differentiated, the demand is weak, and the factory inventory has decreased by 0.3 days to 9.4 days. The processing fee is under pressure, and some plants plan to have Spring Festival maintenance [25] 2.2 PX - The PX market is under pressure due to the release of polyester maintenance plans. The spot market and floating prices have declined, and the paper - cargo spreads have changed [26] 2.3 PTA - The 1.25 - million - ton Ineos unit is operating at 70% load and plans to have maintenance in mid - month, with an estimated restart in early March. The PTA start - up rate changes little, and the price upward drive weakens. The load has increased by 0.1% to 78.2% [28] 2.4 MEG - The inventory in the main ports of East China is about 725,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory in the first quarter. The spot basis and futures basis are at a discount [30] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 PX - **Price and Spread**: Data on Brent crude oil futures, PX CFR China, PXN, and PX - MX are presented [36] - **Disproportionation and Blending Price Spread & Profit**: Data on US gasoline and crude oil inventories, toluene blending price spread, disproportionation profit, and xylene blending and PX production spread are presented [38] - **Supply and Demand**: Data on China and Asia's PX load and China's PTA load are presented [45] 3.2 PTA - **Price and Profit**: Data on PTA spot price, profit, load index, and polyester load are presented [48] 3.3 MEG - **Price**: Data on the East China ethylene glycol market price, Ordos 5500K coal price, East China methanol ex - tank price, and Northeast Asian ethylene price are presented [52] - **Profit**: Data on ethylene glycol oil - based profit, MTO profit, ethylene monomer production profit, and ethylene glycol coal - based profit are presented [54] 3.4 Polyester - **Profit**: Data on POY, DTY, FDY, bottle - chip, and short - fiber profits are presented [56] - **Supply**: Data on polyester load, bottle - chip load, filament load, short - fiber load, filament and short - fiber inventory days, and the start - up rates of looms and texturing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are presented [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term peanut spot prices are relatively stable, with the prices in Henan being stable and those in Northeast China being weak. The futures will continue to fluctuate weakly. The spot prices of peanut oil and peanut meal are stable, and the theoretical profit of oil mills is good. It is recommended to buy 05 peanuts at low prices in the short - term, wait and see for the month - spread, and sell pk603 - P - 8200 at high prices for options [3][5][7][8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data Futures Disk - PK604 closed at 7852, down 8 (-0.10%), with a trading volume of 20,312 (down 35.37%) and an open interest of 34,637 (down 0.94%) [1] - PK610 closed at 8246, down 16 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 513 (up 155.22%) and an open interest of 2,639 (up 7.32%) [1] - PK601 had no valid closing price and trading volume data, with an open interest of 1,012 (down 3.80%) [1] Spot and Basis - Spot prices: Henan Nanyang was 7400, Shandong Jining and Linyi were 8400, Rizhao peanut meal was 3200, Rizhao soybean meal was 3110, peanut oil was 14350, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 8420. The price of Rizhao soybean meal decreased by 10, and that of Rizhao first - grade soybean oil increased by 100, while others remained unchanged [1] - Basis: The basis of Henan Nanyang was - 452, and that of Shandong Jining and Linyi was 548. The difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was - 6, and the difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 5930 [1] Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices: In Northeast China, the price of 308 general peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin was 4.6 yuan/jin (stable), and that in Changtu, Liaoning was 4.55 yuan/jin (down 0.05 yuan/jin). In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts was 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin (stable), and in Junan, Shandong it was 3.5 yuan/jin (stable). Imported peanut prices were stable, with Sudan refined rice at 8600 yuan/ton, Brazilian new rice at 9200 yuan/ton, and Indian specification rice 50/60 at 8000 yuan/ton [3] - Peanut oil prices: The purchase price of some peanut oil mills was stable, with the mainstream transaction price at 6900 - 7900 yuan/ton and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 7780 yuan/ton. The price of domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was stable at 14300 yuan/ton, and the market price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was stable at 16500 yuan/ton [3] - By - product prices: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal dropped to 3110 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). The price difference per unit protein between peanut meal and soybean meal was low, and peanut meal was relatively strong in the short - term, with the 48 - protein peanut meal priced at 3100 yuan/ton [5] Third Part: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The 05 peanut contract will fluctuate at the bottom, and short - term long positions can be taken at low prices [8] - Month - spread: Wait and see [9] - Options: Sell pk603 - P - 8200 at high prices [10] Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the spot price of Shandong peanuts, the profit of peanut oil mills, the price of peanut oil, the basis between peanut spot and continuous contract, the price difference between peanut 4 - 10 contracts, and the price difference between peanut 1 - 4 contracts [12][19][21]

Group 1: Market Information - Shanghai Zhongtian rebar price is 3270 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar price is 3170 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil price is 3290 yuan (+10), Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil price is 3190 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The steel futures market maintained a volatile trend today, with a slight increase in the morning and a correction in the afternoon. The volatility further decreased. The overall spot steel trading volume was generally weak, mainly driven by rigid demand at low prices, with less speculative and futures-spot trading [5] - Last week, the output of the five major steel products increased, and the molten iron output continued to rise due to the recovery of profit levels. The total steel inventory started to accumulate, marking an inflection point. However, the hot-rolled coil inventory continued to decline, with inventory shifting from factory warehouses to social warehouses. The rebar inventory accumulated overall [5] - Affected by seasonality, the apparent demand for building materials further weakened, and the funds available to downstream construction sites decreased. The demand for hot-rolled coils slightly declined, but there was a pre-holiday restocking demand in the manufacturing industry. Steel exports in January remained strong [5] - On the raw material side, the coal mine inventory decreased. Driven by market news, the commodity market recently experienced a significant increase, which led to a rise in steel prices. The structural shortage of PB fines has not been resolved, and the first quarter is also the traditional off-season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills have a rigid demand for restocking, providing cost support [5] - The continuous resumption of molten iron production has also limited the further upward space for steel prices. Affected by the increasing overseas macro risks, market sentiment is relatively strong. In the short term, steel prices will maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend, but the upward space is limited. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of macro news on the market. Future attention should also be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Steel prices will maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend, but the upward space is limited, and the overall trend will follow macro sentiment [6] - Arbitrage trading: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position on the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [6] - Options trading: It is recommended to wait and see [6] Group 4: Important Information - From January 5th to January 11th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.1 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 53% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.4% [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 18th symposium for manufacturing enterprises. Representatives from 12 key industries and industry associations participated in the meeting. The meeting emphasized strengthening self-discipline, creating a healthy ecosystem, and contributing to the development of new industrialization and the construction of a manufacturing powerhouse [8][9]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Agricultural Products R & D Report - Pig Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: January 13, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the live - pig market remains sufficient, with the subsequent supply pressure likely to continue to be reflected, and the overall upward space of pig prices is limited. The long - term trend of spot and futures prices is expected to be downward [3][4]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Prices - Today, the average spot price of live pigs is 12.86 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg from yesterday. The prices in different regions show varying degrees of rise or fall [3]. Futures Prices - Futures prices are in a volatile state. For example, LH01 is 12,160 yuan, up 50 yuan from yesterday; LH03 is 11,795 yuan, up 60 yuan from yesterday [3]. Piglet and Sow Prices - The price of piglets this week is 307 yuan, an increase of 45 yuan from last week; the price of sows is 1557 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan from last week [3]. Breeding Profits - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising is - 11.54 yuan/head, an increase of 23.05 yuan compared with yesterday; the spot breeding profit of purchasing piglets is - 2.31 yuan/head, an increase of 46.03 yuan compared with yesterday [3]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume is 186,620 heads today, a decrease of 2190 heads compared with yesterday [3]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between different contracts and different types of pigs show different changes. For example, LH7 - 9 is - 920 yuan today, a decrease of 15 yuan from yesterday [3]. Group 5: Market Analysis - The scale enterprise's live - pig出栏量 has increased significantly recently, and the ordinary farmers' enthusiasm for selling pigs has also improved. The re - fattening has continued to enter the market, but the subsequent entry volume may decrease. The current live - pig出栏 weight remains high, which has put some pressure on pig prices [3]. - The short - term supply pressure of the live - pig market is limited, and the price may have certain support. However, in the medium - term, due to the high inventory, the supply pressure is obvious, and the price is expected to decline [4]. Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish strategy. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn report significantly increased the production forecast, leading to a sharp decline in US corn prices. However, the global corn supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downside space for US corn prices. The import profit of foreign corn is rising, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2126 yuan. The domestic corn and starch markets have different trends, with corn showing regional differences and starch being affected by corn prices and inventory changes. The report suggests short - selling 03 corn and 03 starch, and adopting a short - term cumulative put option strategy for corn options, while remaining on the sidelines for arbitrage [4][6][7][8][9][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures盘面 - C2601 closed at 2298, down 3 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 0, a 100% decrease, and an open interest of 9,186, a 0.12% decrease - C2605 closed at 2277, down 2 (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 184,628, a 10.50% decrease, and an open interest of 621,422, a 2.87% increase - C2509 closed at 2291, down 6 (-0.26%), with a trading volume of 7,901, a 11.98% decrease, and an open interest of 53,279, a 1.06% increase - CS2601 closed at 2540, up 2 (0.08%), with a trading volume of 100, an 80% decrease, and an open interest of 2,400, unchanged - CS2605 closed at 2591, down 5 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 14,970, a 17.23% increase, and an open interest of 53,742, a 7.87% increase - CS2509 closed at 2619, down 7 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 230, a 44.44% decrease, and an open interest of 2,876, a 1.20% increase [2] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn: The prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port were 2150, 2180, 2304, 2276, 2340, 2420, and 2470 respectively, with price changes of 10, 0, 6, 10, 10, 0, and 10 respectively. The basis was -141, -111, 13, -15, 63, 129, and 179 respectively [2] - Starch: The prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade were 2730, 2700, 2700, 2860, 2800, 2880, and 2750 respectively, with price changes of 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0 respectively. The basis was 139, 109, 109, 269, 209, 289, and 159 respectively [2] 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn inter - month spreads: C01 - C05 was 21, down 1; C05 - C09 was - 14, up 4; C09 - C01 was - 7, down 3 - Starch inter - month spreads: CS01 - CS05 was - 51, up 7; CS05 - CS09 was - 28, up 2; CS09 - CS01 was 79, down 9 - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 was 328, down 1; CS01 - C01 was 242, up 5; CS05 - C05 was 314, down 3 [2] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn report led to a sharp decline in US corn prices, but the global supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downside. The import profit of foreign corn is rising, and the domestic northern port closing prices are rising. The northeast corn spot is strong, while the supply in North China is increasing, and the corn price is stable. The price difference between northeast and North China corn is narrowing. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, and wheat prices are stable. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the downstream feed enterprise inventory is increasing. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][6] 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is increasing, and the Shandong corn spot is stable. The northeast starch spot is stable. The corn starch inventory has increased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 112.5 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 2.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.1%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot is also strong, but enterprise profitability is declining. The 03 starch contract followed the market up and then down, and it is expected that the short - term rebound space for the 03 starch contract is limited [7] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Start short - selling 03 corn and continue to short - sell 03 starch - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [9][10] 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategy: Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy and conduct rolling operations [11] 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The report includes six charts showing the northern port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [14][15][16][18][19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 13th, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5682, down 0.28%, with a decrease of 3885 in positions; the manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5916, down 0.24%, with an increase of 3675 in positions [6]. - For silicon - iron, the spot price was stable on the 13th. The supply side may contract in the future due to the need for technological transformation in Shaanxi enterprises. The demand side has limited future blast - furnace resumption space. With strong cost support and supply contraction expectations, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [6]. - For manganese - silicon, on the 13th, manganese ore and manganese - silicon spot prices were moderately strong. The supply side is generally stable, and the demand side is supported by blast - furnace resumption and pre - Spring Festival restocking. Driven by cost, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [6]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral strategy is to be volatile and bullish in the short term due to the expected improvement in supply - demand and cost push; the arbitrage strategy is to wait and see; the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Data**: The SF main contract closed at 5682, down 16 for the day and 94 for the week, with a trading volume of 162,961 (down 38,469) and an open interest of 224,722 (down 3885). The SM main contract closed at 5916, down 14 for the day and 2 for the week, with a trading volume of 143,149 (down 1617) and an open interest of 260,989 (up 3675) [3]. - **Spot Data**: For silicon - iron, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5450, 5420, 5350, 5750, and 5850 respectively, with different weekly changes. For manganese - silicon, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5750, 5650, 5850, 5820, and 5750 respectively, with different weekly changes [3]. - **Basis/Spread Data**: The basis and spread data of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis of silicon - iron was - 232, up 16 for the day and 184 for the week [3]. - **Raw Material Data**: For manganese ore in Tianjin, the prices of Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabon lump had different daily and weekly changes. The prices of blue charcoal small materials in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [3]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Volatile and bullish in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. - **Important Information**: On the 13th, the price quotes of manganese ore in Tianjin Port changed. A large steel group in Hebei increased its silicon - manganese procurement in January compared to December 2025 [8][9]. Relevant Attachments - The report includes various graphs such as the price trends of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM contracts, the monthly spreads of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, the basis of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, the spot prices of silicon - manganese, the electricity prices of ferroalloys, the production costs and profits of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon [10][13][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the price of edible oils will fluctuate. Palm oil can be traded with a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the edible oil market due to a lack of independent driving factors. For the trading of spreads and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Price and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2605 is 7986 with a decline of 8. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8506, 8546, and 8376 respectively, with corresponding basis of 560, 520, and 390. The closing price of palm oil 2605 is 8778 with an increase of 54. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8748, 8768, and 8908 respectively, with corresponding basis of - 30, - 10, and 130. The closing price of rapeseed oil 2605 is 9017 with an increase of 37. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi are 9817 and 10017 respectively, with corresponding basis of 800 and 1000 [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 144 with an increase of 14, that of palm oil is 100 with a decline of 6, and that of rapeseed oil is 31 with an increase of 13 [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 05 contract, the Y - P spread is - 792 with a decline of 62, the OI - Y spread is 1031, and the OI - P spread is 239 with a decline of 17. The oil - meal ratio is 2.89 with an increase of 0.03 [2] - **Import Profit**: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for the 2 - month shipment is 1062.5, and the FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the 2 - month shipment is 1050, with a negative profit of - 1369 [2] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: As of the second week of 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 102.5 million tons, that of palm oil is 73.6 million tons, and that of rapeseed oil is 25.1 million tons [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: In December 2026, India's palm oil imports were 507,204 tons, lower than November's 632,341 tons; sunflower oil imports were 349,929 tons, higher than November's 142,953 tons; soybean oil imports were 505,112 tons, higher than November's 370,661 tons. Total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, higher than November's 1.18 million tons [4] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 73.6 million tons, a 0.30% increase from the previous week. The origin price was stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed. There were rumors of two near - month purchases. After - market news that Indonesia may not implement B50 this year led to a decline in the Malaysian market. The short - term market lacks a clear driving force, and the high - inventory situation will continue, with a slow de - stocking speed. The short - term price will fluctuate [4] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil price declined slightly. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.7658 million tons, with an operating rate of 48.58%. As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.0251 million tons, a 5.17% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the basis is stable. The weekly trading volume increased. There are rumors of customs clearance delays. With a decrease in soybean arrivals, the soybean oil inventory may decline slightly, but the overall supply is sufficient, and the price will fluctuate at a low level [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil price increased slightly. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 0, and the inventory of rapeseed was exhausted. As of January 9, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 251,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week, at a relatively neutral level. The European rapeseed oil FOB price was stable at around $1050, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 1300. The domestic available rapeseed oil supply is tight, and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. In the short term, rumors of state reserves release in the first quarter and the expectation of improved China - Canada relations restrict the upward space of near - month contracts, but the firm offer from COFCO and the time required for rapeseed purchases to arrive provide support for the price [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: Short - term, edible oils will fluctuate. Palm oil can be traded with a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the edible oil market [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Wait and see [11] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides eight figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and various monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oils, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The monthly supply and demand report is bearish, but the domestic spot market is strong. The overall price of the international soybean market is under pressure due to the relatively loose supply - demand situation. The domestic soybean meal spot shows some support in the near - term, but the medium - to - long - term price pressure still exists. The rapeseed meal market is mainly affected by macro factors, with general demand and more supply - side changes [3][4][8]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach for single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options [9]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Basis**: For soybean meal, the 01 contract closed at 3154 with a rise of 30, and the spot basis in Tianjin increased by 10. For rapeseed meal, the 05 contract closed at 2314 with a decline of 16, and the spot basis in Guangdong decreased by 14. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly decreased, and the monthly spread of soybean meal continued to be strong, while that of rapeseed meal changed little [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 15 - spread of soybean meal increased by 59, and the 15 - spread of rapeseed meal increased by 2616. The 59 - spread of soybean meal decreased by 2, and the 59 - spread of rapeseed meal remained unchanged. The 91 - spread of soybean meal decreased by 57, and the 91 - spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 2616 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Futures Spread**: The spread between soybean and rapeseed 01 decreased, and the oil - meal ratio 01 also decreased [3]. - **Spot Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 19, the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal decreased by 20, and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal decreased by 9 [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply and demand report did not boost the US soybean market. The soybean carry - over inventory was raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market expectation. The quarterly grain inventory data was also bearish. The supply in South America is affected, with good growth of new crops in Brazil and increased exports of old crops. The old - crop production in Argentina is large, and the recent crushing and exports have increased [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market is in a relatively loose supply - demand state. The oil mill operating rate increased, the supply was sufficient, the提货 volume decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly but remained high. The market transaction increased significantly, and the spot was less. The overall demand remained good, and the uncertainty of future supply supported the price. As of January 9, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.7658 million tons, the operating rate was 48.58%, the soybean inventory was 7.1312 million tons, an increase of 0.4% from last week and 17.96% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a decrease of 10.78% from last week and an increase of 72.68% year - on - year. The rapeseed meal demand has gradually weakened, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, the rapeseed supply is low, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory is still at a relatively high level [7]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - **International Market**: The downward pressure on US soybeans has significantly increased. The bearish reports and good yields in South American producing areas are expected to maintain the overall pressure. The short - term dry weather in Brazil has little impact on crop growth, and the harvest is expected to proceed smoothly. The supply - demand situation of the international soybean market is still relatively loose, and the price is expected to be under pressure [8]. - **Domestic Market**: The future soybean arrivals in China will gradually decrease, and there is still great uncertainty on the supply side. The spot market has shown some support recently, driving the near - term disk. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is still in a relatively loose state, and the price pressure still exists. The recent rapeseed meal is mainly affected by macro factors, with general demand and more supply - side changes. After a large decline in the early stage, it has been stable recently, and the spread has stabilized after continuous expansion. If the rapeseed meal supply does not change much, the spread is expected to narrow as the soybean meal supply tightens [8]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude [9]. - **Options**: Use the strategy of selling wide straddles [9]. 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit The soybean pressing profit varies by origin, shipping date, and contract. For example, the Brazilian 2 - month contract has a current disk pressing profit of 99.77 and a spot pressing profit of 228.77, with a profit change of 23.44 compared to yesterday [10].