1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish outlook for iron ore prices, indicating a negative investment rating for the iron ore market [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the iron ore market are continuously weakening, and the iron ore price should be treated bearishly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Ore Market Data Review - The report presents multiple charts showing historical data of iron ore prices (including Platts iron ore price, PB powder price), price spreads (such as the spread between Carajás fines and PB powder, and between PB powder and Super Special fines), basis (optimal delivery product - 01, 05, 09 contract basis), and inter - period spreads (5/9 spread) from 2021 - 2026 [9][11][15] 3.2 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - **Import Volume**: Charts display the import volumes of iron ore from different regions (total imports, Australia, Brazil, India) from 2020 - 2025 [26] - **Global Shipment Volume**: Data on global iron ore shipment volumes (total, Australia - Brazil, Australia, Brazil, major miners like VALE, Rio Tinto, BHP, FMG) from 2021 - 2026 are presented. A table shows the global seaborne iron ore incremental volume (shipment basis) from 2020 - 2026E, including data from major suppliers and their year - on - year changes [29][31][47] - **Domestic Concentrate Production**: Charts show domestic concentrate production in different regions (total, North China, Northeast China, East China) from 2020 - 2025 [59][62] Demand - **Downstream Demand Indicators**: Charts present data on real estate new construction area, infrastructure investment growth rate (excluding electricity), domestic manufacturing inventory cycle, manufacturing investment sub - items, 247 steel mill hot metal production, domestic steel demand (total, construction, manufacturing), overseas iron ore consumption, global iron ore consumption, overseas steel demand, and global total steel demand from 2020 - 2026 [68][69][79] - **Inventory**: Charts show import iron ore port total inventory, import iron ore trading ore total inventory, import iron ore total inventory, and the entire industrial chain iron element total inventory from 2021 - 2026 [90][93] 3.3 Iron Ore Market Outlook - The report concludes that the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weakening, and the price should be treated bearishly, but no specific forecast details are provided [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of cold - storage apples is tight this season due to low inventory and poor quality. The demand is expected to improve seasonally in March and April, and the cost of apple warehouse receipts is high. These factors support the price increase of the May contract. For the May contract, it is recommended to build long positions on dips, and for the October contract, it is recommended to build short positions on rallies after it follows the May contract's rise [6][35]. Summary According to the Directory 1. First Part: Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - In February, the price center of the main - continuous apple futures contract continued to move up, from the previous range of 9400 - 9700 yuan/ton to 9400 - 9900 yuan/ton. The reasons include low cold - storage apple inventory and poor quality this season, fair pre - spring cold - storage apple demand, and high costs of making apple warehouse receipts [5][10]. 1.2 Market Outlook - Fundamentally, the supply is tight due to low cold - storage inventory and poor quality. The demand is expected to improve in March and April as it is a relative off - season for fruit supply. The cost of warehouse receipts is high. These factors support the price of the May contract. In terms of the market, it is recommended to build long positions on dips for the May contract and short positions on rallies for the October contract [6]. 2. Second Part: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - In February, there was a large amount of apple sales before the Spring Festival, and the sales slowed down during the Spring Festival. The price of high - quality apples remained stable at a high level, while the price of slightly inferior apples weakened after the Spring Festival. The opening price of Shaanxi Luochuan paper - bag Fuji 70 semi - commodity was around 4.2 yuan/jin, 0.45 yuan/jin higher than the same period last year. The trading price of Shandong Qixia paper - bag Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade goods was stable at around 4 yuan/jin, 0.25 yuan/jin higher than the same period last year. The price center of the main - continuous apple futures contract moved up [10]. 2.2 Cold - Storage Inventory Reduction - This year's cold - storage apple inventory is at a second - lowest level in recent years. Before the Spring Festival, market stocking increased, and the cold - storage apple sales were good, with a significant decrease in inventory. As of February 27, 2026, the national main - producing area cold - storage apple inventory was 5.5292 million tons, a decrease of 190,800 tons from the previous week and 181,100 tons from the same period last year, a decrease of 3.2%. The cold - storage inventory in Shandong was 2 million tons, a 1% increase year - on - year; in Shaanxi, it was 1.6236 million tons, a 17.2% decrease; in Gansu, it was 619,900 tons, a 34% decrease; in Shanxi, it was 484,900 tons, a 59% increase; in Liaoning, it was 517,700 tons, an 83% increase. The cold - storage apple inventory reduction in Gansu is faster, while that in Shandong is relatively slower. It is expected that the inventory reduction speed will accelerate in March and April [11][14]. 2.3 Apple Demand in March and April - In February, apple sales were good in the first two weeks (pre - Spring Festival stocking) and poor in the last two weeks (post - Spring Festival). The weekly sales volumes in the four weeks of February were 342,500 tons, 316,500 tons, 161,500 tons, and 190,800 tons respectively. March and April are the relative off - season for fruit listing and the peak period for cold - storage apple shipment. It is expected that the apple shipment volume will increase. The apple arrival volume at the three major wholesale markets in Guangzhou is expected to increase seasonally in March and April [22]. 2.4 Import and Export Situation - Apple exports: In December 2025, the domestic apple export volume increased significantly, with about 156,500 tons, a 28.6% month - on - month increase and a 26.8% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was about 962,100 tons, a 1.94% year - on - year decrease. It is expected that the export volume in January and February will remain at a seasonal high but may decrease compared with December. Apple imports: In December 2025, the domestic apple import volume was at a seasonal low, with 31,000 tons, a 21.3% month - on - month increase and a 20% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a 19.7% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the import volume in January and February will remain low [28]. 2.5 High Prices of Substitute Fruits - The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits increased in February, from 7.88 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to 8.02 yuan/kg currently, at a high level in the same period over the years. The average wholesale price of mandarins increased slightly in February, from 6.1 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to 6.2 yuan/kg currently. It is expected that substitute fruits will have a bullish support for apple prices in March and April [31]. 3. Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Fundamentally, the supply is tight, the demand is expected to improve, and the cost of warehouse receipts is high, which support the price of the May contract. It is recommended to build long positions on dips for the May contract and short positions on rallies for the October contract. In addition, it is recommended to go long on the May contract and short on the October contract for arbitrage [8][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton provide some support, and cotton prices are showing a relatively strong performance. The cotton futures prices in February were mainly oscillating upwards. There are rumors of a potential production cut in the new season, which supports cotton prices. Although the downstream market has not fully resumed work, there are expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" period, and downstream sectors may replenish inventory as they gradually resume operations, providing support to the market [5][6]. - The overall trend of cotton prices still has upward potential. It is recommended to build long positions on dips, and it is not advisable to chase the upward trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In February, cotton futures prices were mainly oscillating upwards. The supply side changed little, and there were rumors of a production cut in the new season, which supported cotton prices. The downstream market had not fully resumed work, and although there were expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" period, inventory replenishment was still cautious. US cotton rebounded in February, with expected production cuts according to the USDA annual meeting, and recent contract signings improved. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend [5][12]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Fundamentally, the supply side for this season is basically determined, but there are rumors of a production cut in the new season. In 2026, the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease by 2660000 mu to 36210000 mu, a reduction of 7%, which supports the market. The current commercial inventory is lower than that of the previous year, which is bullish for cotton prices. The downstream market has not fully started, but yarn prices have increased recently. Considering the upcoming "Golden March and Silver April" period, downstream sectors may replenish inventory as they gradually resume operations, providing support to the market [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The fundamentals of cotton are still strong, and there is still upward potential in the long - term trend. It is recommended to build long positions on dips and not to chase the upward trend. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the content in the preface summary, in February, cotton futures prices were mainly oscillating upwards. The supply side changed little, and there were rumors of a production cut in the new season, which supported cotton prices. The downstream market had not fully resumed work, and although there were expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" period, inventory replenishment was still cautious. US cotton rebounded in February, with expected production cuts according to the USDA annual meeting, and recent contract signings improved. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend [12]. 3.2.2 International Market - In the 25/26 season, the global cotton production changed little, demand decreased, and the ending inventory increased. In the 26/27 season, the global cotton production is expected to decrease by 3.9 million bales to 116 million bales, slightly higher than the five - year average. The production in China, Brazil, the US, the Francophone Africa, and Greece is expected to decline, while that in Australia, Turkey, Mexico, Central Asia, and Egypt is expected to increase slightly, and India and Pakistan are expected to remain unchanged. According to the latest USDA global cotton production and sales forecast, in February, the 25/26 season's cotton production increased slightly compared to the previous month, with a decrease of 90000 tons to 26.09 million tons (China's production increased by 110000 tons), total demand decreased by 44000 tons to 25.85 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 136000 tons to 16.35 million tons [13]. 3.2.3 United States - The US cotton production in the 25/26 season changed little, and there is a slight reduction in the new season. The new - cotton contract - signing progress is poor and at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. As of February 12, the cumulative US cotton contract - signing volume was 1.9279 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%, and the cumulative shipment volume was 0.8941 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.13%. Currently, China's cumulative contract - signing volume of US cotton is 91500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.35%, and the cumulative shipment volume is 117000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.87%. The US Department of Agriculture will conduct a planting intention survey in early March 2026 and release the results on March 31. The 2026 US cotton planting area is expected to reach 9.4 million acres (a year - on - year increase of 1.3%), the harvested area is about 7.6 million acres, a 2% decrease from 2025. The national cotton abandonment rate is expected to reach 19%. The spring and summer weather conditions will have a significant impact on cotton planting and the total US cotton production [16][17]. 3.2.4 Other Countries - India: The cotton production in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 23.5 million bales, the same as in the 2025/26 season. Due to continuous pest problems, low prices, and insufficient precipitation, farmers have converted low - yield plots to competitive crops in the past two years. The cotton - planting area is expected to increase by 3% to 11.5 million hectares. The cotton yield per unit area in India has been stable in the past 8 years, and the 2026/27 season's yield per unit area is expected to be 445 kg per hectare, a 3% decrease from the 2025/26 season but slightly higher than the five - year average. As of January 31, 2026, compared with the previous year, the beginning inventory increased by 360000 tons, production increased by 80000 tons, imports increased by 150000 tons, domestic demand decreased by 150000 tons, exports decreased by 50000 tons, and the ending inventory increased by 800000 tons. As of January 31, 2025, the cumulative market volume of Indian cotton in the 2025/26 season was 3.75 million tons, with a market progress of 70%, a year - on - year increase of 17% [19][21]. - Brazil: As of February 21, the 2025/26 season's cotton planting in Brazil was 99.9% complete, a month - on - month increase of 3.4 percentage points, the same as the previous year and basically the same as the average of the past three years [24]. 3.2.5 Domestic Market - Supply side: As of mid - February, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 285000 tons from half a month ago, at a high level compared to the same period in previous years and similar to the previous year. The commercial inventory in Xinjiang was 4.12 million tons, the inventory in the inland areas was 940000 tons, and the bonded - area inventory was 430000 tons. As of February 12, the cumulative sales volume of lint cotton was 4.991 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.881 million tons and an increase of 2.412 million tons compared to the average of the past four years. In December 2025, the imported cotton volume was 177300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41500 tons and a month - on - month increase of 58600 tons. From January to December 2025, the cumulative imported cotton volume was 1.0659 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.2%. From the 2025/26 season to date, the cumulative imported cotton volume was 480100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [29]. - Price difference between domestic and foreign cotton: In February, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton widened, and it is currently around 3000 yuan per ton. Currently, imported cotton has a certain advantage, but the Zhengzhou cotton price has been relatively strong recently, and it is expected that the price difference will remain at the current level in the short term [30]. - Demand side: After the Spring Festival, the downstream market gradually resumed work. The cotton price increased significantly at the beginning of the year, and the yarn price also increased, but the downstream sectors were relatively cautious. There are expectations for orders during the "Golden March and Silver April" period, which provides some support to the market. As of mid - February, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 1.0292 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28200 tons; the yarn inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 21.32 days, and the grey - fabric inventory was 32.88 days. In December, domestic demand was fair, at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period in previous years, while external demand was average. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles in December were 166.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. The export value of textiles and clothing was 25.992 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export value of textiles and clothing was 293.767 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.44% [31][32]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to remain around 25 - 26 million tons, at a relatively neutral level compared to previous years. In the new season, the cotton production in India in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 23.5 million bales, the same as in the 2025/26 season. The recent contract signings have improved but are still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and it is expected that the short - term boost to US cotton will be relatively limited. It is expected that US cotton will mostly maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend. - In China, on the supply side, the cotton production in the 25/26 season is basically determined, and the supply is expected to remain sufficient in the short term. However, the cotton sales progress this year is relatively fast, and the imported cotton volume in the past year has been relatively small. In June, July, and August, the market may still trade on factors such as low inventory. There are rumors that the cotton - planting area in the new season will decrease. If there is no extreme climate, the yield per unit area will probably remain stable, and it is expected that the cotton production in the 26/27 season will probably decrease. On the demand side, the downstream market has not fully started, and although the yarn price has increased recently, the overall attitude is relatively cautious. Considering the upcoming "Golden March and Silver April" period, the downstream sectors may replenish inventory as they gradually resume operations, providing support to the market [57].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an egg research report for February 2026, analyzing the egg market's current situation, future trends, and providing investment strategies [3][18][24] Group 2: Market Review - In February, the spot price of eggs was weak. After the Spring Festival, the average price in the main production areas dropped to around 2.86 yuan per catty, and the highest price in the main sales areas reached around 3.02 yuan per catty. The near - month egg futures contract first fell and then rose, and the March contract was around 2978 [4] - The egg futures contract performed averagely. The egg price was low after the Spring Festival, but the spot price stabilized. The April contract rebounded after an early decline. The current profit was good, and the market's enthusiasm for culling decreased. The current in - production inventory decreased but remained at a high level, and the increase in the futures price was limited [11] Group 3: Market Outlook - After the Spring Festival, the market entered the off - season. The spot price of eggs was stable with little change. The profit was okay, and the enthusiasm for culling decreased. Although the inventory was alleviated, the overall reduction was weakened, and the egg price may be under pressure in the future [5] - In terms of futures, the speed of production capacity reduction may slow down, and the far - month contracts may be under pressure [5] Group 4: Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [6][9][35] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9] Group 5: Fundamental Situation - Supply - In January, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, lower than expected [12] - In February, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 43.33% (low - middle level in the same period over the years), medium - sized eggs was 43.05% (middle level in the same period over the years), and small - sized eggs was 13.62% (high - middle level in the same period over the years) [12] - In February, the egg - laying rate changed little, at a high - middle level in the same period over the years, about 92.71%. With the warming weather, it is expected to maintain the current level [12] - In January, the monthly output of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9%, with little year - on - year change. In February, the price of chicks was at a high - middle level in the same period over the years, and the current weekly market price of laying hen chicks in the Chinese market was 3.32 yuan per chick, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 yuan per chick [12][15] - Before the Spring Festival, the egg price rebounded, the breeding profit was good, the enthusiasm for culling decreased, and the culling volume decreased. On February 12, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 13.17 million, a 20% decrease from the previous week. On February 6, the average culling age of culled chickens was 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [15] Group 6: Fundamental Situation - Demand - Near the Spring Festival, egg consumption was average. As of the week of February 12, the egg sales volume in the national representative sales areas was 6390 tons, a 12% decrease from the previous week, at a low - middle level in the same period over the years [22] - In 2025, from January to December, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 4.5136 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. In December, the absolute value of catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [22] Group 7: Fundamental Situation - Inventory - As of the week of February 12, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.24 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.26 days, the same as the previous week [22] Group 8: Fundamental Situation - Cost and Profit - The current feed cost changed little and is expected to remain at the current level in the short term. In January, the corn price was 2377 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal price dropped to 3184 yuan per ton. The current comprehensive feed cost was about 2619 yuan per ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.88 yuan per catty of eggs [25] - As of February 12, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was 0.12 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.4 yuan per catty from the previous week. On February 12, the expected profit of laying hen breeding was - 13.12 yuan per chicken, the same as the previous week [25] Group 9: Fundamental Situation - Substitutes - The vegetable price index declined. On February 23, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 123.58. The vegetable price decreased recently but was at a relatively low - middle level in the same period over the years. The pork price fluctuated with little overall change. As of January 20, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.67 yuan per kilogram. The low vegetable price had a weak substitution demand for eggs, and the current low - level fluctuating pork price had a relatively limited substitution demand for eggs [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market is mainly affected by macro - factors, with the US soybean market showing a relatively strong trend but having limited export growth space. South American prices are high but may face pressure in the medium - to - long - term. [27][55] - The domestic soybean meal shows a wide - range oscillation, with reduced concerns about supply shortages and possible inventory reduction. [56] - The domestic rapeseed meal is in a low - inventory state, with supply improvement and possible demand growth, but also facing certain price pressures. [60] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - US soybeans showed a strong upward trend this month, driven by potential export improvement and South American weather disturbances. [3] - Domestic soybean meal had a wide - range oscillation. It initially declined due to improved supply prospects and then strengthened with the sharp rise of US soybeans. Spot prices were gradually stabilizing. [3] - Domestic rapeseed meal oscillated. It had a large decline initially and then strengthened with the rise of soybean meal. Supply was improving. [3] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - US soybeans are strongly bullish, but there are many uncertainties. If exports do not improve and South American production does not decline significantly, the market may face pressure. [4] - Domestic soybean meal will continue to oscillate widely. If inventory reduction is not satisfactory, there may be pressure. [4] - Domestic rapeseed meal will also oscillate widely. If macro - improvement leads to increased imports, there may be pressure. [4] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For single - side trading, it is recommended to short soybean and rapeseed meal at high prices. - For arbitrage, expand the MRM spread. - For options, consider the seagull put option. [6] 3.2 Second Part: International Soybean Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Supply Side - US soybean inventory is expected to remain high. As of December 1, the carry - over inventory was 3.290076 billion bushels. New - crop planting area is expected to increase to 85 million acres in 2026, and inventory may slightly increase to 355 million bushels. [8][9] - Brazil's soybean production is high, with USDA increasing the forecast by about 2 million tons to 180 million tons. The harvest progress is slow, reaching 32.3% as of February 21. [12] - Argentina's old - crop pressure is moderate, with high prices. New - crop production may be affected by dry weather, with USDA estimating the output at 48.5 million tons. [13] 3.2.2 Demand Side - US soybean demand has improved. In January, the estimated crushing volume was 221.564 million bushels, with year - on - year growth. Export sales have improved but are still average. There are expectations for macro - driven export improvement, but US soybeans lack price competitiveness. [17] - Brazil's soybean crushing volume in January was high, supported by high international prices and domestic demand for biodiesel. February's export is expected to be 10.69 million tons. New - crop selling is slowing. [20] - Argentina's demand is weakening, with a decline in crushing and export volumes due to reduced supply and low profit margins. [23] 3.2.3 Comprehensive Analysis - The international soybean market is mainly affected by macro - factors. US soybeans are strong due to optimistic demand expectations, but export increase is limited. South American prices are high but may face pressure in the long - term. [27][28] 3.3 Third Part: Domestic Meal Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Supply Themes are Repeated and Transactions Slow Down - Market transactions have slowed down, with the average daily soybean meal transaction volume dropping to 77,800 tons. The spot basis has generally declined by about 50 yuan/ton. [31] - As of February 20, domestic soybean meal inventory decreased to 836,500 tons, and soybean inventory to 5.16 million tons. The estimated full - month soybean crushing volume is about 4.6 million tons, and the feed demand is stable. [33] 3.3.2 Supply Tightens and Soybean Meal Inventory Continues to Decline - In March, soybean arrivals are expected to decline, especially from Brazil. Soybean crushing may slightly increase, and demand may be affected by rapeseed meal supply improvement and active hog slaughter. However, overall inventory is still sufficient, and prices may face pressure. [38][40] 3.3.3 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Supply Improves and Inventory Remains Low - Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply has improved, with potential increases from Australia and Canada. As of February 20, rapeseed inventory was 38,000 tons, and rapeseed meal inventory was about 6,000 tons. Imported rapeseed meal inventory is declining. Overall supply is sufficient, but prices are supported by the rise of soybean meal and high international rapeseed prices. [41][44] 3.4 Fourth Part: Comprehensive Analysis and Future Outlook 3.4.1 Comprehensive Analysis - International soybeans: The market is mainly affected by macro - factors. US soybean export improvement is uncertain, and South American prices may face pressure. [55] - Domestic soybean meal: It oscillates widely, with reduced supply concerns and possible inventory reduction. [56] - Domestic rapeseed meal: It is in a low - inventory state, with improving supply and potential demand growth, but also facing price pressures. [60] 3.4.2 Strategy Analysis - For single - side trading, short soybean and rapeseed meal at high prices. - For arbitrage, expand the MRM spread. - For options, consider the seagull put option. [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The steel price will still face pressure in March [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 2. Fundamental Situation - **Price and Basis**: The document presents season - charts of Shanghai 20mm rebar spot price, Shanghai 4.75mm hot - rolled coil spot price, rebar 05 contract basis, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract basis [6][9]. - **Production**: It shows the monthly pig iron and crude steel production from the National Bureau of Statistics, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, and the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnaces [22][27]. - **Import and Export**: There are charts of steel and billet import quantities, as well as steel and billet export quantities [32][56]. - **Demand and Inventory**: It includes the weekly apparent demand and lunar total inventory of five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coil, as well as the billet inventory in Tangshan area and the global (excluding China) blast furnace pig iron production [37][40][52][53]. - **Profit**: The document shows the export profit of Indian and Japanese hot - rolled coils [60]. 3. March Market Outlook - **Profit**: It presents the cash profit of East China electric arc furnaces (flat - rate electricity) and the cash profit of North China rebar long - process production [62]. - **Production**: There are charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil weekly production [65]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: It includes social financing scale, new RMB loans, fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, 100 large - and medium - sized city land transaction area, commercial housing sales area month - on - year, housing new construction area month - on - year, housing completion area month - on - year, real estate development funds source month - on - year, 30 - city commercial housing transaction ma7, national urban second - hand housing listing price index, national building materials transaction, East China building materials transaction, local government special bond issuance, China's infrastructure loan demand index, infrastructure fixed - asset investment completion cumulative year - on - year sub - items, infrastructure construction investment month - on - year, cement infrastructure direct supply volume, cement delivery volume for housing construction and civil use [69][71][76][82][90][94]. - **PMI and Industrial Indicators**: It shows the performance of various PMI sub - items, manufacturing PMI, industrial enterprise profit total cumulative year - on - year and manufacturing sub - items, industrial added value month - on - year and sub - items, industrial enterprise finished product inventory and year - on - year, industrial enterprise finished product turnover days, China's automobile monthly output, civil steel ship production year - on - year, China's excavator monthly output, China's metal container monthly output, China's refrigerator production year - on - year, and China's air - conditioner production year - on - year [104][107][109][114][116][119].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, carbon emissions, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector [18][25][56]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, the stock index showed differentiation. The Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.65%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.19%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.35%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.76%. The trading volume of the whole market was 2.556 trillion yuan. The stock index futures also showed differentiation, with the main contracts IH2603, IF2603, IC2603, and IM2603 having different changes in price and trading volume [19][20]. - **Investment Logic**: The market differentiation further increased. Technology stocks led the rise, while traditional large - cap stocks were weak. The stock index is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Index remaining relatively strong [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be oscillating and bullish, buying on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use a bull spread strategy [21]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.53%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.10%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.08%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.03%. The yields of major - term treasury bonds in the inter - bank market generally increased [23]. - **Investment Logic**: The central bank net - withdrew 795 billion yuan of short - term liquidity, and the market capital was generally loose. In the short term, the bond market may fluctuate, but in the medium term, the report maintains an optimistic view on the bond market [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybean index rose 0.1% to 1158.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.19% to 321.1 dollars per short ton [26]. - **Investment Logic**: Weather disturbances in the producing areas increased, and the export volume of Brazil increased. The domestic soybean import uncertainty increased, and the market was mainly oscillating [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be mainly bearish; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, use a short straddle strategy [27]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The ICE US raw sugar main contract price oscillated, falling 0.02 (- 0.14%) to 13.96 cents per pound, and the London white sugar price oscillated slightly higher [29]. - **Investment Logic**: Internationally, the influence of Brazilian sugar decreased, and the focus shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, the supply pressure was certain, but the price might rise slightly in the short term [31][32]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the international sugar price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, short put options in the short term [32]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT US soybean oil main price changed by 1.78% to 61.71 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by 0.82% to 4038 ringgit per ton [33]. - **Investment Logic**: The production of Malaysian palm oil in February decreased, and the supply pressure of soybean oil might be postponed. The domestic oil inventory was at a neutral - to - high level, and the inventory might decrease after the festival [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the short - term oil market will maintain an oscillation, with limited upside and downside space; for arbitrage, consider shorting p59 and y59 on rallies; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [35]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The CBOT corn futures rose, with the May 05 main contract rising 0.4% to 443.0 cents per bushel [36]. - **Investment Logic**: The US corn price was stable, and the domestic corn spot was stable in the short term but faced pressure in the long term. The 05 corn contract oscillated at a high level and might回调 after the festival [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: for the US 05 corn, buy on dips; for the domestic 05 corn, short on rallies with a light position; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch on dips; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [37]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The live pig price was generally stable, with different price changes in different regions [38]. - **Investment Logic**: The overall supply pressure was still obvious, but the spot price might be supported in the short term, and the downward space of the futures price was limited [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: place a small number of long orders for the 05 live pig contract; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, use a short straddle strategy [39]. Peanuts - **Market Performance**: The national average price of peanut kernels was stable, and the prices of peanut oil and peanut meal also showed certain changes [41]. - **Investment Logic**: The peanut spot was stable, the import volume decreased, and the 05 peanut contract oscillated in a narrow range [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: trade long on dips for the 05 peanut contract with a light position; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, short the pk605 - P - 7700 option [42]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The national mainstream egg price was stable, and the inventory and production of laying hens showed certain changes [43][45]. - **Investment Logic**: After the festival, it entered the off - season, and the overall capacity reduction slowed down. Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: consider shorting the June contract on rallies; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [46]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the price was stable [47][48]. - **Investment Logic**: The inventory decreased, and the demand was expected to improve. The cost of apple warehouse receipts was high, and the price of the May contract was expected to be bullish [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect the May contract price to oscillate bullishly, and place long orders on dips; for arbitrage, go long on the May contract and short on the October contract; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Performance**: The outer - market main contract fell, and the domestic cotton price was relatively strong [51]. - **Investment Logic**: The fundamentals were supported, and the global cotton supply - demand was expected to be tight. The signing situation improved, and the market was expected to rise [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: expect the US cotton to oscillate in the short term, and consider going long on dips for Zhengzhou cotton; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [53]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Performance**: The black market oscillated at night, and the steel price was under pressure [57]. - **Investment Logic**: The steel mills continued to overhaul, the inventory increased, the demand decreased, and the steel price was expected to oscillate before the Two Sessions and face pressure after the Two Sessions [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: maintain an oscillating trend; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The coking coal and coke market fluctuated greatly [59]. - **Investment Logic**: The supply of coking coal recovered, the demand was weak, and the price was expected to oscillate widely without a clear trend [60][61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the downward space is limited, do not short on dips, and try to go long on dips; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [62]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore price oscillated at night [64]. - **Investment Logic**: The supply of iron ore was loose, the demand might decrease, and the price was expected to be weak [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the price will be weak; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [65]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The silicon iron and manganese silicon prices were stable to slightly strong [66]. - **Investment Logic**: The supply and demand of silicon iron and manganese silicon had different changes, and the manganese ore price was affected by uncertain factors [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold long positions in silicon iron and partially take profits on long positions in manganese silicon; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, short out - of - the - money put options [68]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: London gold rose 0.39% to 5185.29 dollars per ounce, and London silver fell 1.01% to 88.3 dollars per ounce [70]. - **Investment Logic**: There were both bullish and bearish factors, and the market was expected to oscillate at a high level [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold long positions cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, use a long out - of - the - money call option strategy or a bull call spread strategy [71][73]. Platinum and Palladium - **Market Performance**: The outer - market platinum and palladium oscillated widely [74]. - **Investment Logic**: The geopolitical and macro - economic situations supported the precious metals. Platinum was expected to be bullish in the short term, while palladium was in a surplus situation [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: go long on platinum on dips, and adopt a wait - and - see attitude for palladium and conduct band trading; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [75]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2604 closed at 102550, down 0.12% [77]. - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic situation was favorable for copper consumption, but the inventory increase limited the upward momentum. In the long term, copper was expected to rise [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the price will oscillate at a high level in the short term, and adopt a long - term low - buying strategy; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, buy out - of - the - money call options [78]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The night - session alumina 2505 contract fell 101 yuan per ton to 2747 yuan per ton [79]. - **Investment Logic**: The spot price was supported, but the expectation of over - supply suppressed the price [80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the price will oscillate weakly [80]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2604 contract fell 80 yuan per ton to 23780 yuan per ton [82]. - **Investment Logic**: The global aluminum supply - demand was expected to be in short supply, but the domestic inventory was high. The price was expected to oscillate [85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the Shanghai aluminum price will oscillate; for arbitrage, the internal - external price difference will widen slightly; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [85]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: The ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot spot price changed in different regions [86]. - **Investment Logic**: The supply and demand were weak, and the price was expected to oscillate with the aluminum price [86]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the price will oscillate with the aluminum price; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [87]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The overnight LME zinc market fell 0.61% to 3366.5 dollars per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2604 fell 0.04% to 24570 yuan per ton [89]. - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic situation and inventory changes affected the zinc price. The price was expected to be affected by market sentiment in the short term [90]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: buy on dips after the price stabilizes; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [90]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The overnight LME lead market fell 0.83% to 1979 dollars per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2604 contract rose 0.27% to 16800 yuan per ton [91]. - **Investment Logic**: The raw material supply, smelting, and consumption of lead had different situations, and the price was expected to oscillate in a range [94]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the Shanghai lead price may oscillate bullishly in a range; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, short out - of - the - money put options [95]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The overnight LME nickel price fell 315 to 17730 dollars per ton [97]. - **Investment Logic**: The supply - demand was recovering, and the price might rise if the Indonesian policy and demand were favorable [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold long positions at a low level; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, short out - of - the - money put options [98]. Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The stainless - steel inventory increased [99]. - **Investment Logic**: The inventory was high after the festival, but the cost was supported, and the price followed the nickel price [100]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold long positions at a low level; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [100]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The organic silicon开工率 decreased [101]. - **Investment Logic**: The demand was not improving significantly, and the market was worried about the impact of large - scale factory resumption on the fundamentals. The price was expected to oscillate weakly [101]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the price will oscillate weakly; for arbitrage, no strategy provided; for options, no strategy provided [101]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The US announced anti - subsidy tax on imported solar cells [102]. - **Investment Logic**: The policy affected the market, and the spot price was under pressure [102]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: the price will oscillate weakly; for arbitrage, no strategy provided; for options, no strategy provided [102]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: Tesla China launched a low - interest loan policy, and some lithium - related companies had production changes [104]. - **Investment Logic**: The supply was blocked, the demand was good, and the price was likely to rise [105]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading: hold long positions at a low level; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, short out - of - the - money call options for the 2604 contract to protect long - position profits [106][108]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2604 rose 2.35% to 428000 yuan per ton [109]. - **Investment Logic**: The market was worried about the supply, and the price was expected to oscillate at a high level [109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are currently weak in both supply and demand, with an expected marginal improvement in the future. In March, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to improved demand and cost support [2][74]. - For silicomanganese, there was some new production capacity put into operation at the beginning of the year, leading to a slight increase in overall supply. In March, the price is likely to oscillate at the bottom as the profit - loss ratio decreases after the rapid increase in the disk price, and the rumored 15% ecological export tax on manganese ore from South Africa has not been confirmed [2][74]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply is continuously at a low level. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi restricts the output release. The demand is expected to increase as steel profits have recovered and iron - water production is expected to rise in March. The main - producing area electricity prices are stable and slightly strong, and the Inner Mongolia electricity price has increased significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in March [2][74]. - **Silicomanganese**: There is new production capacity at the beginning of the year, increasing the supply. The demand is expected to pick up as steel profits recover and rebar production is expected to rise seasonally after the Spring Festival. The manganese ore port inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years, and the spot price is firm. Overseas mines' March quotes have a slight increase. However, the rumored 15% ecological export tax on manganese ore from South Africa has not been confirmed, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in March [2][74]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In February, ferrosilicon futures prices first declined and then rose. The decline was due to the steel demand entering the off - season and the overall black - metal market being in an adjustment period. The subsequent sharp increase was stimulated by the rise in electricity prices at the South African manganese ore end and the so - called "ecological export tax" [7]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand in March - **Supply**: Silicomanganese (187 enterprises) had a January output of 854,000 tons, a 1.2% month - on - month increase and a 3.7% year - on - year decrease. Some new production capacity was put into operation, and the February output is expected to continue to increase slightly. Ferrosilicon (136 enterprises) had a January output of 437,000 tons, a 3.8% month - on - month decrease and a 7.3% year - on - year decrease. The February output is expected to be basically flat month - on - month and slightly decrease year - on - year [28]. - **Demand**: Iron - water production showed a narrow - range fluctuation in February. On February 27, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.79 million tons more than the previous week. In March, steel profits have rebounded, and according to the blast - furnace maintenance plan, iron - water production is expected to increase slightly. However, if the steel inventory removal speed in March is not ideal, it will restrict the steel mills' resumption of production and drag down the improvement of alloy demand [29][31]. 3.2.3 Inventory - **Alloy factory inventory**: On February 27, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 70,400 tons, a 1,100 - ton decrease from the previous week. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 398,000 tons, a 3,500 - ton increase from the previous week. Ferrosilicon inventory is relatively normal, while silicomanganese inventory is high, which suppresses the price [44]. - **Downstream inventory**: Steel mills have carried out phased replenishment in advance. However, due to the relatively low absolute value of steel profits and the available days of inventory being at a relatively high level in the past three years, the subsequent procurement intensity may weaken [44]. 3.2.4 South African Manganese Ore Event - In February, the electricity price in the main - producing areas was stable and slightly strong, with a significant increase in Inner Mongolia. The manganese ore port inventory is about 4.3 million tons, similar to the same period last year and lower than the average level in recent years. The low inventory supports the spot price. The market rumor that South Africa will levy a 15% ecological export tax on manganese ore has not been confirmed [55]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral trading**: Ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate strongly, and silicomanganese is expected to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. - **Options**: Sell put options on rallies [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term, and Zhengzhou sugar will also maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the long run. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the previous high can be effectively broken through [9][10] - For trading strategies, for the single - side, maintain the bottom - oscillating view; for arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude; for options, sell put options in the short term [10][11][12] Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: SR09 closed at 5,301, up 34 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 51,265 (an increase of 25,547) and an open interest of 137,901 (an increase of 9,758); SR01 closed at 5,423, up 28 (0.52%), with a trading volume of 1,484 (a decrease of 15) and an open interest of 6,647 (an increase of 376); SR05 closed at 5,285, up 37 (0.71%), with a trading volume of 341,075 (an increase of 166,563) and an open interest of 462,071 (an increase of 15,849) [3] - **Spot Price**: In different regions, the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou was 5,380 (up 10), in Kunming was 5,190 (up 20), in Wuhan was 5,630 (unchanged), in Nanning was 5,370 (up 20), in Bayuquan was 5,435 (unchanged), in Rizhao was 5,510 (up 35), and in Xi'an was 5,770 (up 10). The corresponding basis was 95, - 95, 345, 85, 150, 225, and 485 respectively [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The SR05 - SR01 spread was - 138 (up 9), the SR09 - SR05 spread was 16 (down 3), and the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 122 (up 6) [3] - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.25, and a freight of 38.00, the in - quota price was 3,846, the out - of - quota price was 4,880, the spread with Liuzhou was 500, the spread with Rizhao was 630, and the spread with the futures market was 543. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 3,798, the out - of - quota price was 4,817, the spread with Liuzhou was 563, the spread with Rizhao was 693, and the spread with the futures market was 606 [3] Second Part: Market Judgment - **Important Information**: On February 25, India's Food Ministry announced a domestic sugar sales quota of 2.25 million tons for March 2026, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The domestic market is expected to remain bullish. Since mid - February, sugar mills in Maharashtra have begun to end their crushing operations, which will help reduce the market's oversupply. The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) released the third forecast data for the 2025/26 sugar - making season on February 25. The total sugar production (before ethanol diversion) is expected to be 32.409 million tons, the ethanol diversion is expected to be 3.1 million tons, and the net sugar production (after ethanol diversion) is expected to be 29.292 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. As of the end of February, Nanning and Qinzhou in Guangxi are expected to have one sugar mill each stop crushing, but due to rainfall, the plan may change, and the first wave of stops is expected to be concentrated in early March. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be around 7 million tons, but the production estimate is still unclear due to the delayed progress [5][6] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil's sugarcane crushing is almost over, and its sugar exports have decreased, so the market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Most sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle. Although India's sugar production is at a high level in the same period over the years, the recent increase has significantly narrowed, and the final output may be slightly higher than expected but with a small increase. After the US Supreme Court overturned Trump's global tariffs during the holiday, Brazil may export more sugar and ethanol to the US, and the US sugar price has risen after hitting the bottom. In the domestic market, the domestic white sugar is currently in the peak crushing period, and the sugar production in this season is likely to increase significantly, so there is some pressure on the supply side. However, considering the low futures price and the sharp rise in international sugar prices during the holiday, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [9] - **Trading Strategies**: Single - side: International sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term, and Zhengzhou sugar will also maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the long run. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the previous high can be effectively broken through. Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Options: Sell put options in the short term [10][11][12] Third Part: Relevant Diagrams - The report provides 10 diagrams, including those showing monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, price spreads between Liuzhou and Kunming, and various basis and price spreads of white sugar futures [14][16][18]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "粕类日报 2026 年 2 月 26 日" [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Date: February 26, 2026 [3] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Prices - **Soybean Meal**: The closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 3008, 2834, and 2951 respectively, with price changes of 19, 3, and 15. The spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao shows different changes [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2295, 2296, and 2361 respectively, with price changes of 2, -16, and -3. The spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi also shows different changes [3]. Monthly Spreads - **Soybean Meal**: The 15 - spread is 174 (up 16 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is -117 (down 12 from yesterday), and the 91 - spread is -57 (down 4 from yesterday) [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 15 - spread is -1 (up 18 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is -65 (down 13 from yesterday), and the 91 - spread is 66 (down 5 from yesterday) [3]. Cross - Variety Spreads - **Soybean - Rapeseed 05 Spread**: 538 (up from 519 yesterday) - **Soybean - Rapeseed 09 Spread**: 590 (up from 572 yesterday) - **Oil - Meal Ratio 01**: 2.893 (down from 2.906 yesterday) [3] Spot Spreads - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal**: 544 (up 43 from yesterday) - **Rapeseed Meal - Sunflower Meal**: 140 (down 30 from yesterday) - **Soybean Meal - Sunflower Meal**: 814 (up 3 from yesterday) [3] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis International Market - **US Soybeans**: The carry - over stock of soybeans remains at around 350 million bushels, higher than market expectations. Although US soybean exports have improved, the overall supply - demand situation is still relatively loose [4]. - **South American Market**: Brazil's new soybean crop is growing well, and the harvest is progressing smoothly. The monthly supply - demand report has raised Brazil's soybean production forecast. Brazil's old - crop exports and crushing are good, but the subsequent crushing drive may be limited. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and its crushing and exports have increased significantly [4]. Domestic Market - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic spot supply is gradually recovering. The oil mill's operating rate has increased recently, but the overall quantity is less than before. The提货量 has also decreased slightly, and the inventory is in a downward trend. As of February 20, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills is 37,200 tons, the operating rate is 1.02%, the soybean inventory is 5.1954 million tons (an increase of 421,500 tons or 8.83% from last week, and an increase of 181,200 tons or 3.61% year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory is 842,500 tons (an increase of 3,100 tons or 0.37% from last week, and an increase of 343,700 tons or 68.91% year - on - year) [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is generally average. The oil mill's operating rate has increased compared with last week. As of the week of February 20, the crushing volume is 0 tons. The rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories have increased but are still at a low level. The supply pressure still exists, and it is expected to be in a relatively volatile state [6]. Group 4: Logical Analysis - **US Soybeans**: After the macro - drive stabilizes, US soybeans are affected by weather. The positive factors have been fully reflected, and it is relatively difficult to rise further [7]. - **South American Market**: There are some weather disturbances in South America, mainly in the southern region. Although it affects the soybean harvest in some areas of Brazil, the impact on production is relatively limited. The high - level quotes in South America are mainly due to the incomplete reflection of pressure, and it is expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal market is running strongly, mainly affected by market information, but the actual impact is limited. The shipping volume is relatively low, which may have an impact on subsequent supply, but the overall quantity is still relatively sufficient. The monthly spread may face downward pressure. The domestic rapeseed meal market is relatively strong due to the influence of soybean meal, but there may be pressure due to the improvement of supply from the macro - aspect. The monthly spread of rapeseed meal also has certain pressure. The subsequent supply of soybean meal is tight, but the spot price is mainly downward, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to expand [7]. Group 5: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: Adopt a bearish approach [8] - **Arbitrage**: Expand the MRM spread [8] - **Options**: Mainly adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [8] Group 6: Soybean Pressing Profits - The pressing profits from Brazilian soybeans of different shipping months (May, June, July, and August) show different changes, with positive changes in the pressing profit compared with yesterday [9]