全球经济续写下行周期 矿供应奠定有色市场基调 ----2025年有色市主导因素分析和价格预测 银河期货 车红云 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017510 一、铜价长期走势和2025年价格区间 二、美国经济和中国经济成为价格波动主导因素 三、铜矿供应决定精铜产量增长维持高位 四、铝、氧化铝，锌，成为2025年主推做空品种 GALAXY FUTURES 1 铜价长期走势：震荡区间不断上移 决定因素：美元指数 GALAXY FUTURES 2 低点到高点的倍数为：2.5倍 GALAXY FUTURES 3 决定因素：成本 GALAXY FUTURES 4 GALAXY FUTURES 5 2025年价格预测：大区间震荡，先测试低位支撑有效性 8900 7800 7500 GALAXY FUTURES 6 GALAXY FUTURES 7 一、铜价长期走势和2025年价格区间 GALAXY FUTURES 8 二、美国经济和中国经济成为价格波动主导因素 三、铜矿供应决定精铜产量增长维持高位 四、铝、氧化铝，锌，成为2025年主推做空品种 （2024年3月7日）铜市将提前拉开上涨大幕 GALAXY FUTURES 9 810 ...

油脂日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 银河期货油脂日报 2025/6/25 | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 2509收盘价 各品种地区现货价 | | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | 豆油 | 7984 | 34 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8224 | | | | 8234 | 8184 | | 250 | 0 240 | 0 | 200 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8344 | 18 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8564 | | | | 8584 | 8644 | | 220 | 0 240 | 0 | 300 | -20 | | 菜 ...

| 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | 2 | | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 行情回归及国际玉米基本面情况 3 | | | 3 | | | 4 | | | 4 | | | 5 | | 第三部分 | 国内玉米基本面分析 6 | | | 6 | | | 7 | | | 9 | | | 11 | | | 12 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 13 | | | 免责声明 15 | 玉米和淀粉研发报告 玉米和淀粉半年报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 第一部分 前言概要 陈作供应偏紧 新季种植成本下降 银河期货 第 2 页 共 16 页 玉米和淀粉半年报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 玉米和淀粉研发报告 第二部分 行情分析及国际玉米基本面情况 图1：锦州港平舱价（元/吨） 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 1-1 1-16 1-31 2-15 3-2 3-17 4-1 4-16 5-1 5-16 5-31 6-15 6-30 7-15 7-30 8-14 8-29 9-13 9-28 10- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the container shipping market, some shipping companies followed MSK to lower spot quotes, and the EC disk remained volatile and weak under pessimistic expectations. The latest SCFIS European line quote was in line with expectations. The spot freight rate has gradually recovered, but Maersk's price cut has led to concerns about a market inflection point. In the short term, the market sentiment is expected to be weak. The extension of the 90 - day tariff exemption period in Sino - US negotiations may reduce the pressure of ship overflow from the US line to the European line, but the height of freight rates in the long - term is not optimistic. Supply and demand are expected to increase in July. The volatile Middle - East geopolitical situation may cause large fluctuations in the disk [4][5]. - In the dry bulk shipping market, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index ended a five - day losing streak, driven by the rise in Panamax ship freight rates. The Capesize ship freight index declined, while the Supramax bulk carrier freight index increased. The market is expected to enter a short - term correction phase, and the medium - sized ship market's freight rates are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [11][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Disk - Contract EC2506 closed at 1,885.3, down 0.15% with a trading volume of 783.0 hands (down 33.53%) and an open interest of 2,491.0 hands (down 10.27%) [2]. - Contract EC2508 closed at 1,740.2, down 1.79% with a trading volume of 50,789.0 hands (down 29.08%) and an open interest of 43,528.0 hands (down 2.82%) [2]. - Other contracts also showed different price, volume, and open - interest changes [2]. Month - to - Month Structure - The spread between EC06 - EC08 was 145, up 29; the spread between EC06 - EC10 was 593, up 9, etc. [2]. Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European line (weekly) was 1937.14 points, up 14.11% week - on - week and down 59.35% year - on - year. SCFIS US West line was 2083.46 points, down 28.37% week - on - week and down 48.74% year - on - year [2]. Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month was $63.81 per barrel, down 3.39% week - on - week and down 21.16% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was $66.84 per barrel, down 4.14% week - on - week and down 21.5% year - on - year [2]. Dry Bulk Shipping Dry Bulk Freight Index (Daily) - BDI was 1681.00, up 0.42% day - on - day and down 15.82% year - on - year; BHSI was 628, unchanged day - on - day and down 16.60% year - on - year [11]. - Other indices also had corresponding changes [11]. Dry Bulk Freight Rates (Daily) - The freight rate of the Capesize iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was $23.18 per ton, up 3.14% day - on - day; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao (BCI - C5) was $8.92 per ton, down 2.75% day - on - day [11]. Dry Bulk Freight Rates (Weekly) - The freight rate of the Capesize bauxite route from Guinea to Yantai was $22.95 per ton, down 16.09% week - on - week; the freight rate of the Panamax coal route from Samarinda, Indonesia to Ennore, India was $10.50 per ton, up 5.00% week - on - week [11]. Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month was $63.81 per barrel, down 3.39% week - on - week and down 21.16% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was $66.84 per barrel, down 4.14% week - on - week and down 21.5% year - on - year [11]. Shipment Data - From June 16th to June 22nd, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3506.7 million tons, up 154.0 million tons week - on - week. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 3060.9 million tons, up 218.8 million tons week - on - week [13]. - It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in June will reach 1437 million tons. In May, China imported 1211 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, a year - on - year increase of 37.5%, and 163 million tons from the US, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% [13]. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Container Shipping - **Logic Analysis**: Spot freight rates have gradually recovered, but Maersk's price cut has affected market sentiment. The extension of the tariff exemption period in Sino - US negotiations may reduce the pressure of ship overflow from the US line to the European line. Supply and demand are expected to increase in July, and the volatile Middle - East geopolitical situation may cause large fluctuations in the disk [4][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be cautious and wait and see, paying attention to trade negotiations and geopolitical changes. For arbitrage, the 6 - 8 reverse spread should be exited when it is high as EC06 approaches delivery, and the 10 - 12 reverse spread should be rolled [6]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Logic Analysis**: The Capesize ship market in Australia was quiet with slightly lower freight rates, while the Atlantic market had more cargo and slightly higher freight rates. The Panamax ship market had more coal cargoes in July, and freight rates increased slightly. The market is expected to enter a short - term correction phase, and the medium - sized ship market's freight rates are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [14]. Industry News - The EU is preparing more tariff counter - measures to pressure the US [6]. - Powell said the current policy is in a favorable position and can wait and see before considering interest rate adjustments [7]. - Before the negotiation deadline, an EU official warned that the EU must issue a "credible threat" to retaliate in the trade war initiated by Trump [7]. - Trump said both Israel and Iran violated the cease - fire agreement but would not face consequences, and he no longer hoped for a regime change in Iran [8]. - Qatar's Prime Minister said that indirect talks between Hamas and Israel will be held in the next two days to reach a cease - fire agreement [8]. - The Israeli military chief of staff said the focus will return to Gaza to retrieve hostages and destroy Hamas' rule [8]. - Netanyahu refused Trump's request to completely cancel the strike on Iran [9]. - Netanyahu said Israel will take action with the same force if someone tries to resume the nuclear project [9]. - On June 24th, the Israeli Air Force destroyed a radar facility near Tehran, and then suspended further military strikes after a call between Trump and Netanyahu [9][16]. - From June 16th to June 22nd, 2024, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1257.2 million tons, up 31.0 million tons week - on - week [15]. - In May 2025, China imported 1247.7 million tons of coal from Indonesia, a month - on - month decrease of 12.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.5% [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The near - month 07 contract of eggs is expected to maintain a weak performance due to the arrival of the off - season of egg consumption after May, but the downward space is limited. The far - month contracts may rise if the future chicken culling volume increases and improves the egg supply, especially the 8 and 9 - month contracts which are peak - season contracts. However, if the supply side is not significantly improved, the upward space is relatively limited [9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: JD01 closed at 3628, up 19 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3398, up 1; JD09 closed at 3658, up 16. The 01 - 05 spread was 230, up 18; the 05 - 09 spread was - 260, down 15; the 09 - 01 spread was 30, down 3 [3]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.60, up 0.01; the 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.20, up 0.02. Similar upward trends were seen in other contracts [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.81 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. Most mainstream prices across the country declined [3][6]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4.6 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day [3][9]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Inventory of Laying Hens**: In May, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The estimated inventory from June to September 2025 is 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In May, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was 46.985 million, a 4% decrease from the previous month and a 1% increase year - on - year [7]. - **Culled Chicken Volume and Age**: From June 19 - 20, the national culled chicken volume was 19.68 million, a 4% decrease from the previous week, and the average culling age was 509 days, a 3 - day decrease from the previous week [7]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of June 19, the egg sales volume in the main sales areas was 7527 tons, an 8% decrease from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory Days**: As of the week of June 19, the average inventory days in the production and circulation links were 0.92 days and 1.04 days respectively, with decreases of 0.11 days and 0.01 days from the previous week [8]. - **Profit**: As of June 19, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.55 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous week, and on June 20, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 14.6 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 3.4 Trading Logic - Near - month contracts are expected to be weak, and far - month contracts may rise if the supply side improves, but the upward space is limited if the supply is not significantly improved [9]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider building long positions in the far - month 8 and 9 - month contracts when the rainy season is about to end in mid - to - late June and the safety margin is high [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10]. - **Options**: Wait and see [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the low inventory of apples this season, it is expected to effectively support the opening price of early - maturing apples such as Gala. The windy and hot weather in April had a negative impact on fruit setting in some areas of Shaanxi, and it is predicted that the fruit - setting performance of apples in Shaanxi this year is slightly poor. Currently, the price of the October futures contract has fallen to the current level, and it is expected that the apple futures price will mostly maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The index of Wangxingtang is 112.24, up 0.05; the average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.48, up 0.08. The prices of apples in various regions such as Qixia, Luochuan, Penglai, and Yiyuan remained stable [3]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 closed at 7586, up 16; AP05 closed at 7703, down 2; AP10 closed at 7690, up 16. The spreads between different contracts also changed, for example, AP01 - AP05 increased by 18, and AP05 - AP10 decreased by 18 [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against AP01 decreased by 16, and against AP10 decreased by 16, while against AP05 increased by 2 [3]. Market News and Views - **Inventory**: As of June 18, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 1.1649 million tons, a decrease of 109,700 tons from the previous week. The shipment speed was basically the same as last week but slower than the same period last year [4]. - **Market Transaction**: Yesterday, the mainstream transaction price of apples in the origin was stable, the cold - storage transaction was average, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants was not high. Affected by seasonal fruits, the shipment speed was slow, and the price in individual markets declined slightly. The profit of storage merchants of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.9 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.2 yuan per catty from last week [7]. - **Spot Price in Shandong**: The mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Shandong was stable. The prices of different grades and varieties of apples were given, and the purchasing of merchants was cautious with low trading volume [7]. - **Trading Logic**: Low inventory supports the opening price of early - maturing apples, poor fruit - setting in Shaanxi, and the futures price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - biased strategy on dips for unilateral trading; suggest waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options trading [9]. Relevant Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, the spread between different AP contracts, the arrival volume of apples in some markets, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold - storage apple inventory, and the national cold - storage apple shipment volume, with data sources including Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information [13][15][21][27].

大宗商品研究 尿素日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货大幅反弹，最终报收 1740（+42/+2.47%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价止跌企稳，成交火爆，河南出厂报 1710-1730 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1700-1750 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1740-1750 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1620-1680 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1730-1740 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1620-1690 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】6 月 25 日，尿素行业日产 19.56 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.39 万吨(，较去 年同期增加 2.37 万吨；今日开工 84.49%，较去年同期 79.40%回升 5.09%。 【逻辑分析】 能源化工研发报告 今日，受市场消息刺激，整体情绪表现高涨，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价止跌企稳， 成交火爆。山东地区主流出厂报价窄幅下调，市场情绪表现高涨，工业复合肥开工率降 至低位，原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业继续刚需 采购，期货拉涨，贸易商囤货，新单成交大幅改善，待发充裕，预计出厂报价坚挺为主； 河南 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面震荡，最终报收 2391（-23/-0.95%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 2055 元/吨，北线报价 1960 元/吨。关中地区 报价 2200 元/吨，榆林地区报价 2040 元/吨，山西地区报价 2130 元/吨，河南地区报价 2200 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2240 元/吨，鲁北报价 2270 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2200 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 2260 元/吨，云贵报价 2300 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 2640 元/吨，宁波报价 2630 元/吨，广州报价 2440 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 截至 2025 年 6 月 25 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 67.05 万吨，较上一期数据增加 8.41 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 5.90 万吨；华南地区累库，增加 2.51 万吨。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率回落，但需求偏弱，原料煤价格震荡，西 北主流甲醇企业竞拍价格坚挺，煤制甲醇利润在 700 元/吨附 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Report Date: June 25, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 closed at 13,625 with a gain of 40, volume of 47,727 (down 5,162), and open interest of 168,678 (up 5,130) [3] - CF05 closed at 13,605 with a gain of 50, volume of 943 (up 265), and open interest of 5,983 (up 264) [3] - CF09 closed at 13,645 with a gain of 35, volume of 234,985 (down 9,877), and open interest of 560,112 (up 18,170) [3] - CY01 closed at 19,990 with a gain of 120, volume of 13 (up 9), and open interest of 46 (up 7) [3] - CY05 closed at 20,055 with a gain of 1,505, volume of 1 (up 1), and open interest of 1 (up 1) [3] - CY09 closed at 19,995 with a gain of 90, volume of 9,169 (up 1,363), and open interest of 21,920 (up 576) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was at 14,938 yuan/ton, up 44 [3] - Cot A was at 78.40 cents/pound, up 0.85 [3] - FC Index:M: to - port price was at 76.55, up 0.73 [3] - CY IndexC32S was at 20,300, down 770 [3] - FCY IndexC33S was at 21,928, up 59 [3] - Indian S - 6 was at 54,000, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was at 7,450, up 70 [3] - Pure polyester yarn T32S was at 11,200, down 50 [3] - Viscose staple fiber was at 12,600, unchanged [3] - Viscose yarn R30S was at 17,250, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 20 (down 10), 5 - 9 spread was - 40 (up 15), 9 - 1 spread was 20 (down 5) [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 65 (down 1,385), 5 - 9 spread was 60 (up 1,415), 9 - 1 spread was 5 (down 30) [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,365 (up 80), CY05 - CF05 spread was 6,450 (up 1,455), CY09 - CF09 spread was 6,350 (up 55) [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,050 (down 93), domestic - foreign cotton yarn spread was - 1,628 (down 829) [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of June 16, 2025, the cotton planting area in India for the 2025/26 season was 3.125 million hectares, 214,000 hectares higher than the same period last year [6] - As of the week ending June 22, 2025, India's weekly cotton market volume was 174,000 tons, a 501% year - on - year increase; the cumulative market volume for the 2024/25 season was 4.9075 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease [6] - As of June 23, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 40,100 tons, a 0.21% year - on - year decrease [7] Trading Logic - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries bring uncertainties to cotton prices; if the US eases its attitude towards China, it could be positive for cotton prices [8] - With China's current low commercial cotton inventory, if the destocking speed remains the same, the market may price in the expected tight supply before the new cotton harvest, leading to a slightly bullish and volatile cotton market [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - After the recent rise in cotton prices, the pure cotton yarn market remained quiet with light trading and stable prices due to poor downstream orders and low procurement enthusiasm [9] - The overall market for all - cotton grey fabrics remained sluggish, with no improvement in orders and most weavers pessimistic about the future; some expected inventory to increase in July [9] Group 4: Options Option Contracts - On June 25, 2025, CF509C13400.CZC closed at 340, up 49.8%, with an implied volatility of 9.3% [11] - CF509P12600.CZC closed at 18, down 30.8%, with an implied volatility of 13.6% [11] - CF509P12200.CZC closed at 13, down 13.3%, with an implied volatility of 16.8% [11] Volatility - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.3355, slightly lower than the previous day [11] Option Strategy - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.9324, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.5796, with an increase in both call and put trading volumes [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [14][21][26]

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 今日花生油厂采购价格稳定，主流成交价格维持在 7500-7650 元/吨，油厂理论保本 价 8090 元/吨。今日豆油价格稳定，花生油价格稳定，国内一级普通花生油报价稳定在 15000 元/吨，价格较昨日稳定，小榨浓香型花生油市场报价为 17000 元/吨，价格较昨日 稳定。 1 / 4 花生日报 第一部分 数据 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/6/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK504 | | 8002 | 20 | 0.25% | 8 | -92.92% | 122 | 2.5 ...