| | | | | | | 第一部分 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | | 第二部分 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | | 二、美国市场基本面 | 4 | | | 三、国际 LNG | 市场基本面情况 | 6 | | 四、天气预测 | 9 | | | 五、后市展望 | 11 | | | | 免责声明 | 12 | 【市场展望】 国际 LNG：当前欧洲库存水平仍旧偏低，2 月实际气温相对之前预测更为温和 且冬季逐渐过去，需求端风险得到缓和。供应方面，美国寒潮结束后出口恢复，以 及欧美之间关系缓和，但美国和伊朗之间的冲突仍远未结束。从基本面的角度来看， 在供应放量且需求回落的预期下，随着冬季的逐步结束，基本面将会逐步转向宽松。 短期来看美国和伊朗的冲突将是主导价格的主要因素。 美国 HH：随着寒潮结束，供应回归甚至创下新高，需求回落至往年平均水平， 出口的进一步增长受限于产能，因此供需结构迅速转向宽松。3 月的美国气温预期 整体较为平和，而产量预计将持续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the oil and fat market may fluctuate weakly and gradually return to the fundamentals. Palm oil may have further downside due to its weak fundamentals, while soybean oil is relatively resistant to decline, and rapeseed oil may face supply pressure in the long term [3][5][55] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In February, the overall oil and fat market showed a fluctuating decline. After a wave of macro - sentiment and capital resonance - driven rise in January, at the end of January, due to factors such as the market's expectation of tightened monetary policy, the subsiding of geopolitical risk premiums, and increased risk - aversion sentiment before the Spring Festival, the commodity market had an obvious correction, and the oil and fat market also declined. During this period, the spreads of Y - 9 05 and OI - P 05 continued to widen [4][11] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - As March enters the palm oil production - increasing season, there may be a concentrated arrival of palm oil in China in March. The weak fundamentals may lead to further decline in palm oil prices. The current supply contradictions of the 05 contract mainly lie in soybean customs clearance policies, the shipping situation of US and Brazilian soybeans, and soybean oil reserve sales. Rapeseed oil is maintaining a small - scale inventory reduction, which supports its price, but the continuous purchase of Canadian rapeseed will increase the long - term supply pressure [5] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Consider short - selling palm oil at high prices with a light position, or wait to go long at the lower end of the range. Overall, palm oil will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Soybean oil is relatively resistant to decline, with limited upside and downside. - Arbitrage: Appropriately widen the YP05 spread at low prices. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [6] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In February, the overall oil and fat market showed a fluctuating decline, with palm oil falling about 4.24%, soybean oil about 0.65%, and rapeseed oil about 1.45%. Various factors such as policy expectations, geopolitical situations, and inventory reports affected the market trends. After the holiday, the domestic market had a catch - up rise, but the weak fundamentals still suppressed the upward movement [11] 3.2.2 Malaysian Palm Oil - In January, Malaysian palm oil inventory decreased slightly more than expected to 2820000 tons, with a 14% reduction in production to 1580000 tons and an 11% increase in exports to 1320000 tons. In February, production is expected to continue to decline to about 1.33 million tons, and exports are general. The inventory may decrease to around 2.7 million tons but remain at a relatively high level. The CPO spot price is oscillating weakly, and the export reference price for March has been raised. In general, Malaysian palm oil may continue to reduce production and inventory in February, but the high - base inventory will remain at a relatively high level for some time [15][16][17] 3.2.3 Indonesian Palm Oil - In 2025, Indonesian palm oil production was about 57 million tons, with an 8% year - on - year increase. Exports were 32 million tons, with a 9% increase, and domestic consumption was 24.8 million tons, with a 4% increase. The ending inventory was 2.66 million tons, slightly higher than that at the end of 2024. The current fruit bunch price is stable, and the CPO tender price is oscillating. In January, exports decreased by 14% to 2.28 million tons. Indonesia may implement the B45 biodiesel blending policy, and the export levy will be raised from 10% to 12.5% in March, which may lead to poor export performance in March [22][23][24] 3.2.4 Indian Market - In January, India imported 1.31 million tons of edible oil, with 770000 tons of palm oil, 280000 tons of soybean oil, and 270000 tons of sunflower oil. The port inventory decreased slightly to 860000 tons, with palm oil inventory increasing to 490000 tons and soybean and sunflower oil inventories decreasing. There is no import profit for the three major edible oils. There are rumors of soybean oil wash - sales. It is expected that India will import about 400000 - 500000 tons of palm oil in February, and the total edible oil import may slightly decline to about 1.06 million tons [28][30] 3.2.5 Chinese Market - As of February 20, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China was 706400 tons, with a flat week - on - week change. The import profit is inverted, and there may be a concentrated arrival in March. Palm oil can be short - sold at high prices or long - bought at the lower end of the range. The soybean import from January to March is expected to be 17.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 700000 tons. The soybean oil inventory is at a relatively high level, and the supply pressure may be postponed. The rapeseed inventory in domestic crushers is at a relatively low level. The import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to increase, and the rapeseed oil inventory is in a marginal reduction state [34][36][37] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Malaysian palm oil may reduce production and inventory in February, but the high - base inventory will remain at a relatively high level. In March, with the increase in production and the concentrated arrival of imported palm oil in China, the weak fundamentals may lead to a decline in palm oil prices. Soybean oil is relatively resistant to decline, and rapeseed oil has short - term price support but long - term supply pressure. The strategy is similar to the previous part, including short - selling palm oil at high prices, widening the YP05 spread, and staying on the sidelines for options [55]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the asphalt futures market generally followed the trend of crude oil costs but with weaker upward momentum. The price of near - term asphalt was suppressed by factors such as the stagnation of rigid demand during the Spring Festival holiday, and it stabilized with limited increases under the support of cost, low supply, and low inventory. The first - wave drive of the contradiction between the shortage of Venezuelan raw materials and cost increase was realized in early January, and the subsequent expected bullish drive depends on the peak - season demand, while near - term supply increment still exerts pressure [4][10]. - Geopolitical fluctuations have intensified. The asphalt futures market shows a pattern of following the fluctuations of crude oil but with weaker upward momentum. After the Spring Festival, the rigid demand in various regions has not yet started to recover, and the supply of major refineries is expected to increase. The near - term supply - demand fundamentals of asphalt are relatively loose on a month - on - month basis. There are still medium - term expectations of raw material shortages and cost increases. Attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery of demand and raw material consumption [5][42]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In February, the asphalt futures market followed the trend of crude oil costs but with weaker upward momentum. The price of near - term asphalt was suppressed by factors such as the stagnation of rigid demand during the Spring Festival holiday. The first - wave drive of the contradiction between the shortage of Venezuelan raw materials and cost increase was realized in early January, and the subsequent expectations are reflected in the far - term peak - season futures prices of asphalt. The market expects that domestic refineries' low - cost raw material inventories can still be used for 1 to 2 months. The purchase and transaction discounts of Venezuelan crude oil in countries such as India are around - 9 to - 6 US dollars per barrel, with increased costs compared to before the Venezuelan incident. A domestic refinery purchased Canadian Cold Lake oil at a discount of - 5 US dollars per barrel at the end of January, leading to an increase in raw material costs [4][10]. 2. Supply Overview - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the estimated asphalt production in China from January to February 2026 is about 4.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons or 4%. Among them, the asphalt production of PetroChina refineries from January to February was 640,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 80,000 tons or 15%; that of Sinopec refineries was 860,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 230,000 tons or 21%; that of CNOOC refineries was 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 80,000 tons or 25%; and that of local refineries was 2.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 230,000 tons or 11% [14]. - The asphalt production plan of local refineries in February is about 1.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% compared to the production plan in January (statistics in mid - December), but a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons or 20%. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the user's提货 rhythm was affected, and some refineries mainly produced residual oil due to limited raw material supply, resulting in a certain reduction in asphalt production. However, some refineries have plans to resume production, and most local refineries have stable raw material supply, good asphalt production profits, and the need to deliver previous contracts, which support the overall increase in asphalt production of local refineries both month - on - month and year - on - year [14]. - In 2025, China's total asphalt production was 28.468 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.992 million tons or 12%. Among them, PetroChina increased by 1.333 million tons or 33%, CNOOC increased by 243,000 tons or 13%, local refineries increased by 2.266 million tons or 19%, and Sinopec decreased by 850,000 tons or 12% [15]. - In 2025, China's total asphalt imports were 3.928 million tons, an increase of 465,000 tons or 13.4% compared to 2024. The import volume from South Korea increased significantly, reaching 1.256 million tons, an increase of 378,000 tons compared to 2024. The import from the UAE still accounted for the largest proportion and increased by 193,000 tons to 1.398 million tons. The import volume from Iraq also increased significantly by 301,000 tons to 393,000 tons. The import sources from Southeast Asia decreased, while those from Northeast Asia and the Middle East increased [17]. 3. Demand Overview - In February 2026, the domestic asphalt market demand entered the traditional Spring Festival holiday mode, showing a trend of weakening first and then stabilizing, and gradually recovering after the festival. At the beginning of the month, there was still some rush - construction demand in the South, and the project construction in South China, Southwest Yunnan, and Guizhou was coming to an end, supporting the shipment of social inventories and driving up the price slightly. In the North, the rigid demand basically stagnated, and only stockpiling in warehouses was carried out in Shandong, North China, etc., with few spot transactions. From the middle of the month, the terminal projects and transportation across the country gradually came to a standstill, the market demand dropped to the lowest point, the trading atmosphere was cold, traders and downstream users mostly took holidays and withdrew from the market, and the refineries' shipments slowed down, entering the inventory accumulation stage [26]. - The refineries' shipment volume was at a medium level in the same period. The shipment volume in the week of February 12 was 437,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,000 tons or 9%, and a year - on - year decrease of 46,000 tons or 10%. - The terminal demand gradually stopped in February due to the Spring Festival, reaching the lowest level of the year. The operating rates of road modified asphalt and waterproofing membrane both dropped to 0% in the week of February 20, a decrease of about more than twenty percentage points compared to the previous month. During the Spring Festival holiday last year (at the end of January), the operating rates also dropped to 0. The capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt and building asphalt also dropped to the lowest levels of the year and were at a low level in the same period [26]. 4. Inventory and Valuation - In February 2026, in the northern regions such as Northeast, North China, and Northwest, winter - storage resources were stably stored in warehouses. In the southern Yangtze River Delta and South China regions, there were continuous arrivals of imported and domestic shipping resources. During the Spring Festival holiday, the storage in social inventories did not completely stop, and the inventory level increased after the festival compared to before. At the beginning of the month, thanks to the support of the rush - construction demand in the South and the short - term shutdown of major refineries in East China, the refineries' inventory dropped to a low level of 23.62%. In the middle and late ten - day periods, as the holiday approached, the demand stagnated, the logistics was restricted, the refineries' shipments generally slowed down, and the inventory began to stabilize and rise. However, the low overall operating rate limited the inventory accumulation range, and the refineries' inventory rate rose to 27.87% at the end of the month [30]. - After the Spring Festival, as downstream projects resume work one after another, the rigid demand will be gradually released, which is beneficial for the social inventories to start the destocking process. The large stock of social inventory resources that arrived during the holiday needs time to be digested in the short term, which may put some pressure on the price. On the refinery side, although some refineries plan to resume production, the initial operating rate will increase slowly, and the current refinery inventory pressure is generally controllable. If the terminal demand recovery falls short of expectations, the refineries' inventory may face the risk of further accumulation. Overall, the market in March will mainly focus on digesting the existing social inventories, and the inventory inflection point may appear in the middle and late ten - day periods [30]. - In terms of the cost side, in February, the Iran conflict continued to ferment, and the crude oil price fluctuated greatly following the attitude of the US - Iran negotiations but showed an upward trend. The oscillation center of the Brent main contract rose from 63 US dollars per barrel in January to about 68 US dollars per barrel. According to the current global market logistics and transaction information of Venezuelan crude oil, the purchase and transaction discounts of countries such as India are around - 9 to - 6 US dollars per barrel, with increased costs compared to before the Venezuelan incident. A domestic refinery purchased Canadian Cold Lake oil at a discount of - 5 US dollars per barrel at the end of January, leading to an increase in raw material costs. As of February 24, the asphalt processing profit was - 199 yuan per ton, a decrease of about 118 yuan per ton or 145% compared to the end of January [32]. - In terms of the basis, the near - term asphalt futures price was suppressed by factors such as the stagnation of rigid demand during the Spring Festival, and its upward amplitude was less than that of crude oil. The raw material shortage and cost increase were mostly priced in the far - term prices, and the near - term asphalt main contract price decreased slightly compared to the previous month. The spot market price remained stable, and the basis increased. The basis in East China increased by 106 to - 68 yuan per ton compared to the end of January; the basis in South China increased by 116 to - 38 yuan per ton; the basis in Shandong increased by 116 to 82 yuan per ton [32][34]. 5. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Geopolitical fluctuations have intensified. The asphalt futures market shows a pattern of following the fluctuations of crude oil but with weaker upward momentum. After the Spring Festival, the rigid demand in various regions has not yet started to recover, and the supply of major refineries is expected to increase. The near - term supply - demand fundamentals of asphalt are relatively loose on a month - on - month basis. There are still medium - term expectations of raw material shortages and cost increases. Attention should be paid to the subsequent recovery of demand and raw material consumption [42]. - Strategy recommendations: - Unilateral: Go long on BU2606 on dips and pay attention to geopolitical risks. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking has risen to the same - period high supported by increased market demand and geopolitical supply concerns, but the first - quarter fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand still exist. Attention should be paid to near - term logistics changes in major supply regions such as Iran and Russia. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply remains abundant, and there is no strong economic support compared to natural gas under the cold wave. Geopolitics is the main bullish driver, and cost - side risks should be monitored [5]. - In the context of ongoing geopolitical and macro disturbances, there are still restrictions and concerns regarding fuel oil exports from Russia and Iran, major fuel suppliers. On the demand side, feedstock demand is still supported. Near March, attention should be paid to the start of power - generation import demand in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The short - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil has decreased month - on - month [53]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Market Review - In February, the high - sulfur fuel oil market was mainly driven by supply concerns due to geopolitical turmoil. The situations in Russia and Iran, the two major supply areas, were uncertain. PetroChina's active high - price purchases in the Singapore spot window significantly pushed up the high - sulfur fuel oil spot price. The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased month - on - month, and its cracking valuation gradually recovered in the second half of the month [4][10][11]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 High - Sulfur Supply - In Russia, due to more refinery shutdowns caused by attacks and poor port weather, high - sulfur exports decreased month - on - month in February. The UK's sanctions on Russia also affected the export. Mexico's high - sulfur exports remained stable in February and are expected to decline marginally in 2026. In the Middle East, high - sulfur exports were basically stable, with a slight decrease. The east - west price difference of high - sulfur fuel oil widened to the highest level since 2022 and is expected to remain high [18][22][26]. 3.2.2 High - Sulfur Demand - High - sulfur marine fuel demand was stably supported, with marginal growth from the steady increase in the number of ships with desulfurization towers. High - sulfur feedstock demand increased slightly month - on - month, and PetroChina's active purchases in the spot window pushed up the cost [33][36]. 3.2.3 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Dangote Refinery's gasoline unit returned to operation in mid - February, and its low - sulfur production and exports are expected to decline month - on - month. Al - Zour Refinery maintained high - level low - sulfur exports. South Sudan's energy facilities gradually resumed supply, and its Dar crude oil exports increased. Low - sulfur demand had no specific drivers, with stable marine fuel demand and no strong substitution demand compared to natural gas [38][40][41]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Geopolitical and macro disturbances continue to affect the fuel oil market. Supply concerns from Russia and Iran persist, while feedstock demand remains supported. Low - sulfur short - term supply pressure has decreased. - Strategy recommendations include: 1. Unilateral: Strong and volatile, buy on dips for FU2605 without chasing highs. 2. Arbitrage: The price range of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates. Enter the FU59 positive spread on dips. Go long on the BU - LU spread on dips. High - sulfur cracking fluctuates at a high level. 3. Options: None [53].

| | | | 【供需展望】 2 | | --- | | 【交易逻辑】 2 | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | 第二部分 基本面情况 3 | | 一、行情回顾 3 | | 二、需求：节后复工复产，多晶硅下游排产环比回升 4 | | 三、供应：3 月多晶硅排产增加 8 | | 四、库存：多晶硅高库存格局不变 9 | | 第三部分 后市展望及策略推荐 10 | | 免责声明 11 | 有色板块研发报告 多晶硅 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 区间震荡，关注现货成交价格 第一部分 前言概要 【供需展望】 3 月多晶硅下游企业复工复产，部分出口订单交付，组件、硅片排产环 比上行，乐观预计下3 月硅片排产增加至 50GW 附近，折算多晶硅需求9.5 万吨。供应方面，协鑫科技提产，其亚复产，新特能源蒙特基地复产，戈恩 斯延期复产，3 月多晶硅产量环比增加至 8.4 万吨。从供需数据看，多晶硅 企业 3 月份纸面去库 1 万吨左右。多晶硅工厂库存 35 万吨，厂家库存压力 较大，厂家挺价意愿分化。 【交易逻辑】 多晶硅供需边际好转但高库存格局下价格难有上涨驱动。反内卷仍在推 进但联合挺价被取缔，厂家挺价意愿分化。龙 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price is expected to continue rising, but there is a risk of correction if the macro - environment weakens. It is recommended to hold long positions at low levels [4][126] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In February 2026, the nickel price first declined and then rose, with a narrowing trading range, reaching a low of 130,000 and a high of less than 145,000. The market trading logic is dominated by supply disturbances of Indonesian nickel products [3][9] - Before the Spring Festival, funds flowed out for risk - avoidance, causing the price to correct. After the festival, downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, market sentiment improved, and funds returned to the nickel market, resulting in a pattern of increasing volume and price [3][9] 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Go long after a correction and stabilization - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6] 3.2 Second Part: Market Review - The situation is the same as the market review in the first part, with the nickel price showing a trend of first decline and then rise in February 2026, and being affected by Indonesian supply disturbances and the Spring Festival [9] 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Seasonal Changes in Refined Nickel Production - As of February 13, 2026, the global visible inventory reached 364,000 tons, with LME inventory at 287,000 tons and SMM's six - region social inventory at 74,500 tons, driving the increase in global inventory [12] - In January 2026, refined nickel production increased by 26% year - on - year to 37,700 tons, reaching a record high. In February, it decreased by 5% month - on - month to about 35,800 tons due to the Spring Festival. In March, it is expected to continue reaching a new high [21] - In January 2026, China's net imports of refined nickel are expected to continue increasing. Preliminary estimates show that the supply of refined nickel in January was about 50,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [21][22] - In January 2026, pure nickel consumption decreased by 2% year - on - year to 22,600 tons. In February, domestic refined nickel consumption declined due to the Spring Festival. It is expected to gradually recover in March [22][25] 3.3.2 Stainless Steel: Insufficient Low - cost Raw Materials and Off - season De - stocking - **Price Increase of Nickel Ore and Ferronickel**: In February 2026, Indonesia's nickel ore production quota was significantly reduced by 29% - 31% compared to 2025, aiming to support the nickel price and strengthen its pricing power. The quota of the largest nickel mine, PT Weda Bay Nickel, was cut by over 70%. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is expected to be tight, and the prices of nickel ore and ferronickel have risen [33][35] - **Cost Inversion and Production Cut Pressure for Steel Mills**: From January to February 2026, the combined stainless - steel crude steel production of China and India was 7.059 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. In February, domestic stainless - steel supply decreased significantly due to the Spring Festival and raw - material supply contraction. It is expected to gradually recover in March, but the recovery will be limited [48] - **Market Expectation for Two Sessions Policies**: In February 2026, the global macro - environment was "divergent recovery and loose policy". Domestic macro - policies focused on stabilizing growth, and overseas economies had an increased expectation of policy turning. The market is looking forward to policies from the Two Sessions [67] 3.3.3 Strong Ternary Demand in the Off - season - **Rising Price of Nickel Sulfate**: In February 2026, a landslide occurred at a nickel processing center in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), affecting MHP production. It is expected to reduce MHP by 10,000 - 15,000 metal tons, strengthening the supply contraction expectation and supporting the nickel price [85][86] - **Off - season in the New Energy Vehicle Market**: In January 2026, China's new energy vehicle production and sales increased year - on - year, but the growth rate slowed down. In February, the domestic market showed seasonal decline, but the penetration rate remained stable. Overseas markets slowed down due to policy changes, industrial - chain shortages, and cost pressures [100][101][112] - **Resilience in Power Batteries**: In January 2026, the production of power cells increased by 37% year - on - year. Although the production of ternary power cells decreased, the increase in single - vehicle battery capacity offset the pressure of sales decline. The production of nickel sulfate, ternary precursors, and ternary cathode materials all increased year - on - year [115][117] 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Future Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term upward trend of the non - ferrous sector has not ended. In March, demand will increase significantly month - on - month, but the overall supply of primary nickel will still be tight. Nickel prices are expected to continue rising, but there is a risk of correction [126] - **Strategy Recommendation**: - Unilateral: Adopt a strategy of going long after a correction - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [127]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - As of February, multiple supply data points in the natural rubber industry showed inflection points, supporting the strengthening of natural rubber's valuation relative to the overall commodity level [5][55] - The consumption of the rubber sector highly overlaps with macro - consumption. The current global automotive industry maintains a high growth rate, which can support high - speed commodity demand [5][55] - Compared with strong commodities such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals, rubber's valuation is at a historical low. If the seven - year cycle of rubber valuation remains valid, 2026 will likely be a turning year from narrowing declines to expanding increases [5][55] - If the overall commodity market does not decline, the rubber sector is highly likely to strengthen [6][56] Summaries by Sections I. Supply 1. Natural Rubber Production - In December 2025, the total natural rubber production of ANRPC member countries decreased for two consecutive months to 10.93 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of - 10.5%. The reduction rate hit a 22 - month low and accelerated for three consecutive months. The RU valuation was significantly lower relative to the reduction rate [14] - The supply cycle of natural rubber has arrived. Except for Cote d'Ivoire and Cambodia, the year - on - year growth rates of the 7 - year cumulative/average production of the top ten rubber - producing countries turned negative from positive between 2019 and 2024 [15] - In 2026, the global natural rubber production is expected to increase by only + 0.6%, likely lower than the consumption growth rate for the first time [15] 2. Natural Rubber Inventory - For both RU warehouse receipts (light - colored rubber) and bonded area inventory (dark - colored rubber), rubber valuations are significantly low. The upward inflection point for light - colored rubber inventory appeared in May 2024, and for dark - colored rubber inventory, it appeared in October 2025 [23] - In November 2025, after centralized cancellations, the total inventory of the RU contract fell below 100,000 tons, a 154 - month low. In February, the total RU inventory was 124,600 tons, with a year - on - year de - stocking of 72,900 tons, entering an accelerated de - stocking process [24] - In February, the inventory inside the Qingdao Bonded Area was 104,900 tons, and outside the area was 532,300 tons, totaling 637,200 tons. It had been accumulating inventory for three consecutive months on a month - on - month basis, but the year - on - year growth rate had been narrowing for four consecutive months, indicating marginal de - stocking after excluding seasonal effects [24] 3. Other Supply - side Data - In February, the Thai latex (glue) was priced at 62.78 Thai baht/kg, the cup rubber at 55.52 Thai baht/kg, and the water - cup price difference was + 8.16 Thai baht/kg, strengthening marginally for three consecutive months. The upward inflection point was in December 2025 [31] - In December 2025, the domestic import volume of smoked sheet rubber was 45,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of + 70.8%. The growth rate had been narrowing for three consecutive months, indicating marginal reduction and the supply peak had passed. The upward inflection point was in January 2026 [31] - In December 2025, the El Niño index (EN) was - 0.55°C, a year - on - year cooling of - 0.13°C. In January, the Southern Oscillation Index (SO) was + 9.9 points, a year - on - year increase of + 6.2 points. The upward inflection point was in January 2026 [31] - In February, the weighted rainfall for Thai production was 0.64mm/day, a year - on - year decrease of - 1.95mm/day. The cumulative rainfall in the past 12 months decreased by - 0.28mm/day year - on - year, the first year - on - year decrease in 19 months, indicating a dry climate unfavorable for production. The upward inflection point was in February 2026 [31] 4. Synthetic Rubber Does Not Drag Down Natural Rubber - In January, the domestic butadiene production was 498,000 tons, and the butadiene rubber production was 150,000 tons, totaling 299,000 tons (30% conversion of BD), a year - on - year increase of + 12.0%, supporting butadiene rubber to continue to strengthen relative to whole milk rubber [39] - In February, the BR futures warehouse receipts reached a new high, making the domestic butadiene rubber inventory 58,900 tons, 0.472 times the total RU inventory. However, the large inventory difference does not negatively affect butadiene rubber. The inventory ratio between synthetic rubber and natural rubber has been fully reflected in the butadiene rubber/whole milk rubber price difference [39] II. Consumption and Macroeconomy 5. Automotive Industry - In February, the global automotive industry index slightly dropped to - 7.2 points. This data is positively correlated with both the commodity index and natural rubber. However, the correlation between the automotive industry and rubber is lower than that with commodities, and its leading effect on the commodity index is less than that on rubber. The global automotive industry can support the strengthening of commodities, and rubber is relatively undervalued [52] - In January, the domestic commercial vehicle production was 388,000 units, a year - on - year increase of + 26.1%, and the passenger vehicle production was 2.062 million units, a year - on - year decrease of - 4.2%. The overall domestic automotive industry is still in an increasing production channel, which can support the strengthening of commodities, consistent with the conclusion from the global automotive industry index [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical analysis, and trading strategies of butadiene rubber and natural rubber from February 24 to 27, 2026. It points out that factors such as production, inventory, and market demand have different impacts on the prices of these two types of rubber, and provides corresponding trading suggestions [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - **BR Butadiene Rubber**: From February 24 - 27, 2026, the prices of BR butadiene rubber contracts fluctuated. For example, on February 27, the 05 contract of BR butadiene rubber closed at 12,760 points, down 40 points or 1.31%. The prices of different brands of butadiene rubber in various regions also showed certain differences [1][5][9] - **RU/NR Natural Rubber**: The prices of RU and NR natural rubber contracts also fluctuated during this period. For example, on February 27, the 05 contract of RU natural rubber closed at 17,080 points, down 45 points or 0.26%. The prices of natural rubber in different regions and varieties also varied [1][6][10] Important Information - In January 2026, EU passenger car market sales decreased by 3.9% to 799,625 vehicles. The market share of pure - electric vehicles reached 19.3%, and that of hybrid vehicles was 38.6%, while the combined market share of gasoline and diesel vehicles dropped to 30.1% [2] - In 2025, the US imported 286.15 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The import volume from China decreased by 15%, while that from Thailand increased by 10% [6] - In 2025, the petrochemical industry achieved stable progress. The production of major energy and chemicals remained stable, with the apparent consumption of ethylene increasing by 7.7% and that of fertilizers by 1.4%. However, industry investment and total import - export trade decreased, while export volume increased rapidly [10] - The ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber market will be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. The global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2.4% to 15.2 million tons in 2026 [14] Logical Analysis - In February 2026, the ZEW global auto industry index dropped to - 7.2 points, slightly bearish for commodities. The domestic high - cis butadiene rubber capacity utilization rate increased to 80.3% for three consecutive months, a year - on - year increase of 23.4%, slightly bearish for BR [2] - In January 2026, the domestic auto inventory warning index increased to 59.4% for three consecutive months, with marginal destocking, slightly bullish for commodities. As of February, the domestic butadiene port inventory decreased to 37,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% with a narrowing increase, bullish for BR [7] - In December 2025, the net import of BD was + 55,000 tons (30% conversion), and that of BR was + 1,200 tons, a total of + 17,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2,600 tons, bullish for BR for three consecutive months [7] - In December 2025, the new orders for US auto and auto parts increased to $67.98 billion, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%, the highest increase in 35 months, bullish for commodities [11] - As of the Spring Festival, the domestic butadiene production increased to 459,600 tons in the past four weeks, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. The warehouse receipts of the SHFE BR contract increased significantly by 30.5% to 16,980 tons, and the factory warehouse receipts increased by 3.5% to 22,330 tons, a total of 39,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.9% [15] Trading Strategies - **February 27**: Hold short positions in the BR04 contract and move the stop - loss down to the recent low of 12,800 points. Try to go long on a small scale in the BR05 contract and set the stop - loss at the recent low of 12,535 points [2] - **February 26**: Hold short positions in the BR04 contract and move the stop - loss down to the recent high of 13,350 points [7] - **February 25**: Try to go short on a small scale in the BR04 contract and set the stop - loss at the recent high of 13,480 points [11] - **February 24**: Wait and see for the BR04 contract and pay attention to the support at the recent low of 12,530 points [15] - For all four days, keep a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage (long - short) and options [2][7][11][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, affected by the geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, international oil prices showed a strong and volatile pattern. The market priced in the possibility of an Iranian supply disruption, with Brent crude rising above $70 per barrel, and the current risk premium estimated to be as high as $8 - $12 per barrel. The WTI crude futures price closed at $65.42 per barrel on February 25, up about 7.9% from the same period last month, and Brent crude futures closed at $70.85 per barrel, up about 8% [4][8]. - In the short - term, the geopolitical situation will still dominate the market, and oil prices may remain volatile and strong. For the whole year of 2026, the market will face a re - balance between geopolitical risk premiums and global supply - demand fundamentals. The OPEC+ production policy and increased production in the Americas may bring supply surplus pressure, while seasonal demand recovery and global restocking may provide upward momentum [9]. - The crude oil surplus pattern is difficult to be falsified, and there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. Geopolitical risks are the main driving force for the upward movement of oil prices. The Brent price is expected to fluctuate in the range of $65 - $72 per barrel this month, with a pattern of high at the beginning and low at the end, and the downward risk mainly comes from the extrusion of geopolitical premiums [4][50]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In February 2026, due to the geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, international oil prices showed a strong and volatile pattern. The market priced in the possibility of an Iranian supply disruption, with Brent crude rising above $70 per barrel, and the current risk premium estimated to be as high as $8 - $12 per barrel. The WTI crude futures price closed at $65.42 per barrel on February 25, up about 7.9% from the same period last month, and Brent crude futures closed at $70.85 per barrel, up about 8% [4][8]. - Geopolitical risks are the core driving force this month. The US's increased pressure on Iran's nuclear issue, increased military deployments, and the repeated prospects of negotiations have led to repeated concerns about supply disruptions, driving short - term event - driven rebounds. Although the global supply surplus pressure persists, OPEC+ maintaining the policy of suspending production increases provides some support [4][8]. 2. Supply Overview - **OPEC**: In January 2026, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.453 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 135,000 barrels per day. The main production cuts came from Iran (- 81,000 barrels per day), Nigeria (- 19,000 barrels per day), and Venezuela (- 87,000 barrels per day). Iraq increased production by 38,000 barrels per day, and Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait increased production by 13,000 barrels per day, 14,000 barrels per day, and 5,000 barrels per day respectively [13]. - **OPEC+**: OPEC+ plans to hold a regular meeting on March 1st to evaluate the production policy for the next month, and it is expected to maintain the production level in March. According to Reuters, OPEC is inclined to resume a small - scale production increase from April 2026, which may be related to the current strong price and the start of the summer demand peak. It is expected that by the end of 2026, OPEC will end the current production cut plan of 1.65 million barrels per day, and the supply will reach a high point. The subsequent supply increase is mainly expected to come from four Middle Eastern countries, with a total supply increase of about 1 million barrels per day [16]. - **US**: As of the week of February 20, the number of active US crude oil rigs was 409, unchanged from the previous week and slightly lower than the previous month. US crude oil production was 13.702 million barrels per day, a slight month - on - month decrease of 33,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of about 200,000 barrels per day. The EIA expects the average US crude oil production to be 13.6 million barrels per day in 2026, the same as in 2025, and to drop to 13.3 million barrels per day in 2027 [19]. - **Russia**: As of February 22, Russia's average crude oil shipments in the four - week period were 3.44 million barrels per day, slightly up from the previous period and the fifth consecutive week of growth, but still about 420,000 barrels per day lower than the peak before Christmas. The UK announced new sanctions against Moscow, targeting 175 companies in the 2Rivers oil network [21]. - **Iran**: The confrontation between the US and Iran has directly driven the high volatility of the crude oil market through geopolitical risk premiums. The two sides are conducting military deployments and diplomatic negotiations at the same time. The current situation is at a crossroads between war and peace. The core contradictions between the two sides have expanded from the nuclear issue to broader issues such as Iran's missile program, regional influence, and the "absolute security" sought by the US and Israel. The possibility of the US launching a military strike on Iran in the long - term has increased significantly. If the situation escalates to military confrontation, it may lead to supply disruptions and a sharp rise in oil prices. In January, Iran's crude oil production was about 3.3 million barrels per day, and exports increased from 1.38 million barrels per day last month to about 1.6 million barrels per day [24][26]. 3. Demand Overview - **US**: In February, US gasoline demand bottomed out and rebounded, with demand around 8.484 million barrels per day at the end of the month, and the demand level was in a neutral state in the past five - year range. US gasoline inventories have been accumulating since early January, exceeding the seasonal level, with a year - on - year increase of 1%, and then falling back to around 250 million barrels in late February. US distillate demand also increased seasonally in February, with the demand level at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years. Distillate inventories declined slightly, and the destocking speed was relatively limited, with inventories around 120 million barrels at the end of February [29]. - **China**: In February, the operating rate of domestic refineries increased slightly. The operating rate of major refineries rose from 80.02% at the end of January to around 82.17%, which is at the historical average. The independent refineries changed little from the previous month. The domestic refined oil market closely follows the high - frequency fluctuations of crude oil. Affected by the post - poned demand, the supply and demand sides show structural differentiation characteristics. After the Spring Festival holiday, the performance of gasoline and diesel in Central China was weaker than expected, breaking the gasoline - diesel linkage rule. Gasoline is stronger than diesel, and the pattern of strong gasoline and weak diesel may continue in the first quarter [41]. 4. Profit and Valuation - In the profit aspect, in the past month, the cracking profit of overseas refined oil has shown a mild recovery from the low point. After mid - February, the refinery maintenance season and seasonal demand have become the main supporting factors. Diesel cracking is relatively strong and provides the main support, while gasoline cracking is weak or has limited recovery, so the recovery of the composite cracking is mainly driven by diesel. The strength of diesel is mainly due to the increased demand for heating oil in the northeastern US in the late winter, the maintenance of multiple devices in the US, Asia, and the Middle East, and the restricted heavy - oil exports [43]. - The market shows a complex pattern of "weak demand, strong supply, high inventory, and tense geopolitics". The IEA expects global oil demand to increase by 850,000 barrels per day in 2026, slightly higher than the 770,000 barrels per day in 2025, mainly contributed by non - OECD countries, especially China, India, and Southeast Asia. The growth driver has shifted from transportation fuels in 2025 to petrochemical raw materials in 2026. The supply is expected to increase by 2.4 million barrels per day to 108.6 million barrels per day in the whole year, with the increase evenly shared by OPEC+ and non - OPEC+ [47]. 5. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The crude oil surplus pattern is difficult to be falsified, and there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. In the short - term, the market is speculating on the possibility of the US launching a military strike on Iran. Geopolitical risks are the main driving force for the upward movement of oil prices. The Brent price is expected to fluctuate in the range of $65 - $72 per barrel this month, with a pattern of high at the beginning and low at the end, and the downward risk mainly comes from the extrusion of geopolitical premiums [50]. - Strategy recommendations: - **Unilateral**: High at the beginning and low at the end. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The volatility of aluminum prices has decreased, and the drag on alumina remains. The alumina market is expected to fluctuate weakly, while aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. The global aluminum supply-demand shortage pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the verification of consumption and supply-demand expectations [5][6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary - **Alumina**: Supply-side production cuts in January and February narrowed the market surplus but did not reverse it. The cost and inventory pressure still drag down prices, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The global trend of "de-dollarization" continues, and the volatility of aluminum prices is decreasing. The global aluminum supply-demand shortage pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to macro guidance and the verification of consumption and supply-demand expectations [6] - **Strategy Recommendations**: For alumina futures, expect weak oscillations; for aluminum prices, expect high-level oscillations, and be vigilant of increased price volatility in late March. Consider arbitrage strategies such as buying physical aluminum for delivery and shorting futures, and going long on LME aluminum and shorting Shanghai aluminum. For options, adopt a wait-and-see approach [7] 2. Alumina Surplus Narrowed but Cost and Inventory Drag Remain - **Raw Material End** - **Domestic Ore**: In January 2026, domestic bauxite production was 5.34 million tons. In February, production was expected to decline seasonally, and prices remained stable [10] - **Imported Ore**: In February, the price of imported bauxite continued to fall. Guinea's bauxite supply is expected to increase significantly in 2026, and the price may continue to be under pressure [12] - **Alumina Supply**: In February, the alumina supply-side operating rate continued to decline. The shutdown of a production line in the north affected the market, and the overall inventory increased. The import window was mostly closed, and the net export volume was about 80,000 - 90,000 tons. Future production capacity changes include the resumption of overseas production and the delayed commissioning of domestic new capacity [23][27] - **Cost**: In January 2026, the national weighted average full cost of alumina was 2,667 yuan/ton. In February, the cost was expected to continue to decline [33] 3. Aluminum Price Volatility Decreased, Focus on Demand Expectation Fulfillment in Fundamentals - **Triple Attributes Driving Aluminum Prices**: From late January to early February, aluminum prices fluctuated significantly due to financial and capital factors. In the future, the financial and strategic attributes of aluminum will still drive prices, but the influence of the commodity attribute may increase in March [38] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply**: Overseas, new projects are being launched, and some plants are resuming or reducing production. In China, new projects are progressing, and the supply elasticity is low in the medium term. The cost of electrolytic aluminum production decreased in January, and the profit was high, but it is expected to shrink in February. The import loss may suppress the net import volume [45][53][54] - **Post-Festival Aluminum Inventory**: At the end of February, the total social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars increased significantly, and the apparent consumption decreased year-on-year. The overseas market had a different inventory situation, and changes in the US 232 aluminum tariff may have a limited impact on the global aluminum price [58][61] - **Domestic Terminal Consumption** - **New Energy Demand**: In the first quarter, there may be a rush to export photovoltaic components. The demand for aluminum in transportation is expected to increase year-on-year, and the demand for aluminum in the power sector is also growing, with significant potential for energy storage [69][72][81] - **Traditional Industries**: The demand for aluminum in the real estate market remains weak, and the production schedule of home appliances decreased year-on-year. However, the export of aluminum products is expected to increase [86][94][98] 4. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Alumina**: The supply-side has marginal reduction, but the surplus pattern and cost and inventory pressure will still drag down prices. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly [102] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The influence of macro and capital sentiment has weakened, and the global supply-demand shortage pattern remains unchanged. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in March, and the domestic and foreign supply-demand differentiation may widen the price gap [104]