研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 832.5 | 830.0 | 2.5 | I01-I05 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 1.0 | | DCE05 | 821.0 | 819.5 | 1.5 | I05-I09 | 22.0 | 21.5 | 0.5 | | DCE09 | 799.0 | 798.0 | 1.0 | I09-I01 | -33.5 | -32.0 | -1.5 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | P B粉(60.8%) | 822 | 825 | -3 | 893 | 55 | 65 | 87 | | 纽曼粉 | 824 | 827 | -3 | 901 | 63 | 74 | 95 | | 麦克粉 | 828 | 830 | -2 | 914 | 76 | 86 | 108 | | 金布巴粉(60.5%) | 779 | 7 ...

Report Information - Report Date: January 14, 2026 [1] - Report Type: Crude Oil Spot Market Daily Report [1] - Researcher: Wu Xiaorong [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03108405 [2] - Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021537 [2] Core Views - The market is currently concerned about the risk premium on international oil prices due to the escalating geopolitical risks in Iran. Trump's remarks about imposing tariffs on countries trading with Iran and withdrawing from Iran have led the market to worry about further escalation of US actions against Iran. The Brent main contract is expected to be in the range of $63 - $67 [2] Industry News Summary Production Forecast - The US is expected to see a decline in oil production in 2027 as output in the Permian Basin drops. The daily crude oil production in 2027 is projected to fall from about 13.59 million barrels per day in 2026 to 13.25 million barrels per day [2] Import Data - China's oil imports in 2025 and December 2025 both reached record highs. In December, China's crude oil imports increased by 17% year - on - year, and the total crude oil import volume in 2025 is expected to grow by 4.4% [2] Shipping and Logistics - Since last month, at least 26 ships have changed their registration to Russia, with most changes occurring after the US seized the Venezuelan supertanker Skipper on December 10, 2026. This is a significant increase from 6 ships in November and 14 ships in the previous five months [2] - On January 13, 2026, due to bad weather and a shortage of available mooring points, the CPC loading volume decreased by nearly 75% compared to the normal level. So far this month, only four oil tankers have completed the shipment of about 518,000 tons (crude oil products), equivalent to about 340,000 barrels per day [2] - According to Bloomberg's ship tracking data, as of the four - week period ending January 11, 2026, Russia's average daily crude oil exports were 3.42 million barrels, about 450,000 barrels less per day than the peak before Christmas. Although it is only 30,000 barrels less than the level before January 4, it is still higher than the average level of last year [2] - On January 14, 2026, Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy stated that to mitigate the impact of the decline in CPC terminal throughput in December on Russia's Black Sea coast and avoid production disruptions, the country has redirected some oil shipments to alternative routes [2] Energy Policy - On January 14, 2026, Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Julio Tanjung, announced that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel ratio to 50% this year and will maintain the current mix of 40% palm - oil - based fuel and 60% diesel [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. corn report significantly increased the production, leading to a weakening of U.S. corn prices today. However, the global corn supply pressure has decreased, limiting the downside space of U.S. corn prices. The in - quota tariff for U.S. corn is 11%, and for sorghum is 12%. The import profit of foreign corn has risen, with the February Brazilian import price at 2,122 yuan. [4] - The domestic corn market shows different trends in different regions. The spot price in the northeast is relatively strong due to low supply and farmers' reluctance to sell, while the price in North China is stable with increasing supply. The price difference between northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat - corn price difference is still large, and corn remains cost - effective. The domestic livestock farming demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is increasing, so the short - term spot price of corn is relatively stable. The market is currently concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of corn in the northeast before the Spring Festival and the inventory building of downstream enterprises. [4][6] - In the starch market, the number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2,750 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory decreased to 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 21.5%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product prices are still strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is also strong, but enterprise profitability has declined. It is expected that the short - term 03 starch contract on the futures market will fluctuate within a narrow range. [7] - For trading strategies, the U.S. corn report is bearish, and U.S. corn is expected to continue bottom - oscillating. The 03 corn contract still has room to fall, and the 03 starch contract is expected to oscillate. For trading, the 03 U.S. corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. The short positions of 03 corn should be closed at night, and the 03 starch contract should be closed for observation at night. The 35 starch contract should start reverse arbitrage. [8][9] - For corn options, a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations is recommended. [11] 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: - For corn futures, the closing price of C2601 is 2,300 yuan, up 2 yuan or 0.09%; C2605 is 2,275 yuan, down 2 yuan or - 0.09%; C2509 is 2,295 yuan, up 4 yuan or 0.17%. The trading volume of C2601 is 416, with no change in trading volume; the trading volume of C2605 is 140,645, a decrease of 23.82%; the trading volume of C2509 is 9,236, an increase of 16.90%. The open interest of C2601 is 8,433, a decrease of 8.20%; the open interest of C2605 is 627,188, an increase of 0.93%; the open interest of C2509 is 54,740, an increase of 2.74%. [2] - For corn starch futures, the closing price of CS2601 is 2,539 yuan, down 1 yuan or - 0.04%; CS2605 is 2,580 yuan, down 11 yuan or - 0.43%; CS2509 is 2,614 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 0.19%. The trading volume of CS2601 is 0, a decrease of 100%; the trading volume of CS2605 is 17,549, a decrease of 25.12%; the trading volume of CS2509 is 292, an increase of 26.96%. The open interest of CS2601 is 2,400, with no change; the open interest of CS2605 is 56,116, an increase of 4.42%; the open interest of CS2509 is 2,752, a decrease of 4.31%. [2] - **Spot Market and Basis**: - For corn, the spot prices in different regions are: 2,150 yuan in Qinggang, 2,180 yuan in Songyuan Jiji, 2,304 yuan in Zhucheng Xingmao, 2,276 yuan in Shouguang, 2,335 yuan in Jinzhou Port, 2,420 yuan in Nantong Port, and 2,460 yuan in Guangdong Port. The price in Jinzhou Port decreased by 5 yuan, and the price in Guangdong Port decreased by 10 yuan, while the others remained unchanged. The basis is - 145 yuan in Qinggang, - 115 yuan in Songyuan Jiji, 9 yuan in Zhucheng Xingmao, - 19 yuan in Shouguang, 60 yuan in Jinzhou Port, 125 yuan in Nantong Port, and 165 yuan in Guangdong Port. [2] - For starch, the spot prices are: 2,730 yuan for Longfeng, 2,700 yuan for COFCO, 2,700 yuan for Yihai (Heilongjiang), 2,860 yuan for Yufeng, 2,800 yuan for Jinyu, 2,900 yuan for Zhucheng Xingmao, and 2,750 yuan for Hengren Industry and Trade. The price of Zhucheng Xingmao increased by 20 yuan, while the others remained unchanged. The basis is 150 yuan for Longfeng, 120 yuan for COFCO, 120 yuan for Yihai (Heilongjiang), 280 yuan for Yufeng, 220 yuan for Jinyu, 320 yuan for Zhucheng Xingmao, and 170 yuan for Hengren Industry and Trade. [2] - **Price Spreads**: - For corn inter - delivery spreads, the spread of C01 - C05 is 25 yuan, up 4 yuan; the spread of C05 - C09 is - 20 yuan, down 6 yuan; the spread of C09 - C01 is - 5 yuan, up 2 yuan. [2] - For starch inter - delivery spreads, the spread of CS01 - CS05 is - 41 yuan, up 10 yuan; the spread of CS05 - CS09 is - 34 yuan, down 6 yuan; the spread of CS09 - CS01 is 75 yuan, down 4 yuan. [2] - For cross - variety spreads, the spread of CS09 - C09 is 319 yuan, down 9 yuan; the spread of CS01 - C01 is 239 yuan, down 3 yuan; the spread of CS05 - C05 is 305 yuan, down 9 yuan. [2] 3.2 Market Outlook - **Corn**: The U.S. corn report is bearish, but the global supply pressure has weakened. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. The northeast corn price is strong, and the North China price is stable. The price difference between wheat and corn is large, and corn has cost - effectiveness. The livestock farming demand is stable, and the downstream inventory is increasing. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure in the northeast before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory building. [4][6] - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn price in Shandong is stable. The starch inventory has decreased. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product prices are strong, and the enterprise profitability has declined. The short - term 03 starch contract on the futures market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [7] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: The 03 U.S. corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. The short positions of 03 corn should be closed at night, and the 03 starch contract should be closed for observation at night. [8] - **Arbitrage**: The 35 starch contract should start reverse arbitrage. [9] 3.4 Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. Two option contracts are listed: C2605 - P - 2240.DCE with an underlying price of 2,275 yuan, a closing price of 33 yuan, and an implied volatility of 3.0; C2603 - P - 2200.DCE with an underlying price of 2,272 yuan, a closing price of 10.5 yuan, and an implied volatility of 4.0. [11] 3.5 Related Attachments - There are six figures in total, showing the northern port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch - corn 05 contract spread from 2022 to 2026. [13][14][17]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a peanut daily report dated January 14, 2026, focusing on peanut market data, analysis, and trading strategies [1] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Data Futures Market - PK604 closed at 7826, down 26 (-0.33%), with a trading volume of 28,762 (up 41.60%) and an open interest of 32,408 (down 6.44%) - PK610 closed at 8240, down 6 (-0.07%), with a trading volume of 120 (down 76.61%) and an open interest of 2,686 (up 1.78%) - PK601 data was unavailable [2] Spot Market - In the spot market, prices in Henan were stable, while those in Northeast China were weak. For example, 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin were 4.55 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in Changtu, Liaoning, it was 4.55 yuan/jin, stable from the previous day. In Henan, Baisha common peanuts were quoted at 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, stable from the previous day, and in Junan, Shandong, it was 3.5 yuan/jin, also stable [4] - Imported peanut prices were stable. Sudan refined peanuts were 8600 yuan/ton, Brazilian new peanuts were 9200 yuan/ton, and Indian 50/60 specification peanuts were 8000 yuan/ton, all stable from the previous day [4] - Peanut oil prices were stable. Domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was quoted at 14300 yuan/ton, and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton, both stable from the previous day [4][6] - By - product prices: Rizhao soybean meal spot price was 3100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. Peanut meal was relatively strong in the short term, with 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3100 yuan/ton [6] Basis and Spread - The basis for Henan Nanyang peanuts was - 426, and for Shandong Jining and Linyi peanuts was 574. The difference between soybean meal and peanut meal was - 4, and the difference between peanut oil and soybean oil was 5940 [2] - The PK04 - PK10 spread was - 414, down 20, while the PK01 - PK04 and PK10 - PK01 spreads were unavailable [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - Peanut prices were expected to be relatively stable in the short term. Supply was increasing, but downstream demand was still weak. The spread between oil - used peanuts and commodity peanuts was large, and the spread between Henan and Northeast common peanuts was at a high level [4][8] - Peanut oil and peanut meal prices were stable, and oil mills' theoretical profit was good. The market was trading on the relatively low import cost of Senegalese peanuts, but the warehouse receipt cost was expected to be relatively high [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, it was recommended to go long on 05 peanuts at low prices as they were expected to oscillate at the bottom [9] - For spread trading, it was recommended to wait and see [10] - For options trading, it was recommended to sell the pk603 - P - 8200 option at high prices [11] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report included six figures, showing Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill profit, peanut oil prices, peanut spot - futures basis, peanut 4 - 10 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread [13][19][21]

纯碱玻璃周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 第一章 核心逻辑分析 2 第二章 周度数据追踪 10 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1.1 纯碱供应——二期出产品，产量上移 GALAXY FUTURES 2 单位：万吨 纯碱产量 纯碱联碱法开工率 单位：% 纯碱氨碱法开工率 单位：% 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 第53 周 第50 周 第47 周 第44 周 第41 周 第38 周 第35 周 第32 周 第29 周 第26 周 第23 周 第20 周 第17 周 第14 周 第11 周 第8周 第5周 第2周 2026年度 2025年度 2024年度 2023年度 2022年度 2021年度 50.00% 55.00% 60.00% 65.00% 70.00% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 50.00% 55 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: aa Soda Ash Futures Daily Report [2] - Report Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Li Xuanyi [5] - Futures Practitioner License Number: F03108920 [5] - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0018403 [5] Group 2: Basic Data Spot Market (Yuan/ton) - On January 14, 2026, the prices of heavy - duty soda ash in Central China, East China, and Shache were 1200, 1170, and 1160 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of 0, 0, and - 70. The price of heavy - duty soda ash in the Northwest was 860, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 20. The prices of light - duty soda ash in Central China, East China, North China, and the Northwest were 1120, 1140, 1220, and 890 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of 0, 20, 40, and 20. The light - heavy price difference in East China was 30 [4]. Futures Market (Yuan/ton) - On January 14, 2026, the SA05, SA09, and SA01 contracts were all 0, with daily changes of - 1212, - 1273, and - 1136 and weekly changes of - 1271, - 1329, and - 1183. The main contract's open interest was 0, with a daily change of - 1183 and a weekly change of - 1041221. The main contract's trading volume was 0, with a daily change of - 1041362 and a weekly change of - 2265606. The number of warehouse receipts was 0, with a daily change of - 5213 and a weekly change of - 5276 [4]. Basis (Yuan/ton) - On January 14, 2026, the basis of SA05, SA09, and SA01 contracts were N/A [4]. Spread (Yuan/ton) - On January 14, 2026, the SA05 - 09, SA09 - 01, and SA01 - 05 spreads were N/A, with daily changes of 2, - 16, and 143 and weekly changes of 8, - 11, and 3 [4]. Fundamental Data (Weekly) - As of January 9, 2026, the soda ash production was 750,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The capacity utilization rate was 84%, with a week - on - week increase of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The soda ash factory inventory was 1.57 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 7%. The apparent demand was 590,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 19% and a year - on - year decrease of 15%. The profit of the combined soda process was - 40 Yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 13% and a year - on - year increase of 326%. The profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 58 Yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 39% and a year - on - year decrease of 16% [4]. Group 3: Market Judgment Market Conditions - According to Longzhong Information, the price of heavy - duty soda ash in Shache changed by - 25 to 1160 Yuan/ton, and that in Qinghai changed by 0 to 860 Yuan/ton. The price of light - duty soda ash in East China changed by 0 to 1140 Yuan/ton, and the light - heavy price difference was 38 Yuan/ton [7]. Important News - Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen's production increased. Henan Jinshan's equipment was restored, and Zhongyuan's Phase III equipment had a short - term shutdown. The domestic soda ash market showed general trends, with small price fluctuations and narrow - range adjustments. The equipment was operating stably without maintenance. The downstream demand was tepid, mainly on - demand. The futures price declined, the sentiment slowed down, and the wait - and - see sentiment was strong. The soda ash market in Shache showed narrow - range fluctuations, the futures price declined at a low level, and there was appropriate low - price trading in the market. The current spot - futures basis quotes are as follows: Hebei warehouse pickup 03 - 40 or 05 - 50 to 80, Shache delivery 05 - 50, Hubei warehouse pickup 05 - 50, Inner Mongolia factory pickup 05 - 300 to 320, Shandong factory pickup 05 - 30 [8]. Logical Analysis - The soda ash trend was weak, with more declines than increases in commodities. The daily production was 111,000 tons. Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen's production increased. Henan Jinshan's equipment was restored, and Zhongyuan's Phase III equipment had a short - term shutdown. The inventory decreased slightly on Monday. As of now, 32% of downstream glass enterprises' raw material samples had a factory inventory of 23.91 days, an increase of 3.2 days. On the cost side, the theoretical profit of China's combined soda process (double - ton) was - 40 Yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of China's ammonia - soda process was - 57.85 Yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. With poor fundamentals, the high - inventory pressure will be tested by pre - Spring Festival rigid - demand purchases. Looking at a longer cycle and waiting for an opportunity to short, the market will fluctuate widely this week [9]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Fluctuate widely this week and wait for an opportunity to short. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices for far - month contracts [10] Group 4: Related Attachments - The attachments include charts of soda ash basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipt number, main contract open interest, main contract trading volume, weekly production, factory inventory, apparent demand, ammonia - soda process profit, and combined soda process profit [13][16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC futures market continues to show a volatile and weak trend, with significant divergence in the market regarding the intensity of cargo rush. The spot freight rate has reached an inflection point, and attention should be paid to the subsequent booking situation. The cancellation of export tax - rebates before April 1st is expected to lead to a short - term cargo rush, which is favorable for near - term contracts and unfavorable for far - term contracts. Geopolitical factors and seasonal patterns also have an impact on the market [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - On January 14th, the EC2604 contract closed at 1230.5 points, up 2.57% from the previous day. The SCFIS European line index on January 14th was 1956.39 points, up 8.94% week - on - week, in line with market expectations. Mainstream shipping companies have successively lowered their spot quotes for the second half of January. The spot freight rate has shown an inflection point, and the cargo volume is still at a high level but may start to decline seasonally. Geopolitical factors such as the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea and US tariffs on Iran also affect the market sentiment [5][6] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Due to many short - term disturbances and divergence in the cargo rush intensity, it is recommended to wait and see [7] - Arbitrage: Maintain the idea of buying on dips for the 6 - 10 positive spread [8] 2. Industry News - On January 13, 2026, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. (601919) announced the order of twelve 18,000 TEU container ships and six 3000 TEU container ships. The Hamas delegation has arrived in Cairo, Egypt, for cease - fire negotiations [9][10] 3. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including SCFIS European and US West line indexes, SCFI comprehensive index, container freight rates for different routes, and the basis of EC02 and EC04 contracts [12][14][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical events, and policy changes. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the stock index fluctuated significantly. Although there were short - term rebounds, the overall market closed down. The basis of each variety continued to rise, and the discount of stock index futures continued to narrow, indicating that futures investors are still optimistic about the future market. It is recommended to go long on IC and IM on dips, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage on IM/IC 2606 + short ETF, and use bull spreads for options [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Tuesday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, but the market capital continued to converge, which put pressure on the short - end. In the short term, although market sentiment has recovered, it is not advisable to be overly optimistic. It is recommended to stop profit on previous long positions and then wait and see. For cash bond holders, they can consider selling hedges. For arbitrage, it is recommended to try shorting the basis of the 30 - year active bond [23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply pressure increases, and the price of US soybeans continues to decline. It is recommended to have a short - term bearish view, conduct M79 reverse arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [25][26]. - **Sugar**: Both domestic and international sugar prices are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to expect international sugar prices to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and domestic sugar prices to oscillate within a range. Consider buying at the lower end and selling at the upper end of the range, and sell put options [27][30][31]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The US biodiesel sector is disturbed, and the price of US soybean oil has increased significantly. In the short term, the oil market oscillates with increased volatility. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [31][33]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn report shows increased production, and the short - term price is weak. The spot price of corn is currently stable but may face pressure later. It is recommended to go long on the 03 US corn contract after it stabilizes, try short - selling the 03 corn contract, and widen the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts [35][36]. - **Hogs**: The overall slaughter increases, but the spot price continues to rise. It is recommended to have a short - selling view, wait and see for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [37][38]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on the 05 peanut contract on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [39][41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand has improved, and the egg price is stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to expect the near - month contract to oscillate weakly, and consider going long on the far - month May contract on dips [42][45]. - **Apples**: The cold - storage inventory is low, and the apple price is firm. It is recommended to hold long positions in the May contract and short the October contract, and conduct long - May and short - October arbitrage [46][48][49]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales progress is fast, and the cotton price oscillates. It is recommended to expect the US cotton to oscillate in the short term, and go long on Zhengzhou cotton on dips [50][52]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products start to accumulate inventory, and the steel price continues to oscillate. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend, short the hot - rolled coil - coking coal ratio on rallies, and continue to hold the short - hot - rolled coil and long - rebar spread [55][56]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates sharply, and it is recommended to be cautious. It is expected to continue to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [57][59]. - **Iron Ore**: Market expectations are volatile, and the iron ore price is considered bearish at high levels. It is recommended to short lightly at high levels [60][63][64]. - **Ferroalloys**: Driven by cost, the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended to expect a short - term strengthening trend due to improved supply - demand and cost factors, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle options [66][67][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Inflation is moderate, and geopolitical conflicts drive the prices of gold and silver to new highs. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the previous high at the end of December and in silver based on the support near the previous high on the 7th of this month [70][73][74]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The slowdown of CPI growth eases the macro - pressure on precious metals. It is recommended to go long on platinum on dips, and be cautious about going long on palladium before the result of the 232 investigation is announced [75][76][77]. - **Copper**: Short - term fluctuations intensify, but the upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold long positions entered at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton [78][79]. - **Alumina**: The contradiction between commodity sentiment and fundamentals expands price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [81][82]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It runs strongly with oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [83][86]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [87]. - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side. It is recommended for conservative investors to wait and see, and for aggressive investors to hold short positions with strict position control [89][91]. - **Lead**: Take partial profit on long positions and raise the stop - loss line. It is recommended to take partial profit on profitable long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options appropriately [93][96]. - **Nickel**: It follows the correction of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to have a long - term long view after the correction stabilizes [97][98][99]. - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the nickel price. It is recommended to go long on dips after the correction stabilizes [99][101]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short on rallies. It is recommended to short on rallies as the medium - term demand is weak [102]. - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious due to the current vacuum period of spot trading [103][105]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The risk of over - rise increases. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average [106][107][109]. - **Tin**: The supply vulnerability is prominent, and the tin price reaches a new high. It is recommended to be vigilant against the selling pressure after the digestion of macro - positive sentiment [110][111][112]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: Maersk lowers the price for wk5, and there are still differences in the intensity of rush - shipping. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and conduct positive arbitrage on the 6 - 10 spread [113][114][115]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to drive the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event and expect an oscillating and strengthening trend. Also, note that domestic gasoline is strong and diesel is weak, and the crude oil calendar spread is strong [116][118]. - **Asphalt**: Cost support is favorable, but supply and demand are weak. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation [118][120]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend and hold the FU59 positive spread [121][124][125]. - **Natural Gas**: TTF/JKM rebounds, and HH oscillates weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the third - quarter TTF and JKM contracts and sell out - of - the - money call options on TTF or JKM [126][127][129]. - **LPG**: There is a strong current situation and weak expectations. It is recommended to have a short - term long and long - term short view and pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian event [129][132][133]. - **PX&PTA**: Downstream production cuts increase, and geopolitical disturbances strengthen cost support. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation and conduct positive arbitrage on the 3 and 5 contracts [133][134][135]. - **BZ&EB**: Pure benzene is expected to reduce supply, and styrene is boosted by exports. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for pure benzene and conduct long - styrene and short - pure - benzene arbitrage [136][137]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Downstream production cuts increase, and the price has limited upside. It is recommended to expect a weak oscillation and sell call options [138][140]. - **Short - Fiber**: The purchasing sentiment is cautious, and the processing margin is under pressure. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation [140][142]. - **Bottle Chips**: Some maintenance device plans are announced. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation [142][144]. - **Propylene**: It oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation [144][146][147]. - **Plastic PP**: Hold long positions. It is recommended to hold long positions in the L 2605 contract, try to go long on the PP 2605 contract, and sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract [148][152]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda weakens. It is recommended to expect an oscillating trend and wait and see [153][155]. - **PVC**: It mainly oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see [155][157]. - **Soda Ash**: It has a wide - range oscillation this week. It is recommended to short on rallies during the wide - range oscillation and sell out - of - the - money call options on the far - month high [158][160]. - **Glass**: The futures price falls. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation this week, short on rallies, conduct short - glass and long - soda - ash arbitrage, and sell call options [160][164]. - **Methanol**: It runs firmly. It is recommended to avoid short positions and go long with attention to the Middle East situation [165][167]. - **Urea**: It runs weakly. It is recommended to short lightly and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread [167][169][170]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates widely at a high level. It is recommended to hold short positions [172][174][175]. - **Log**: The spot price rebounds slightly. It is recommended for aggressive investors to buy a small amount of long positions and pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse arbitrage [176][178][179]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: High inventory suppresses the rebound of cultural paper. It is recommended to wait and see and sell the OP2602 - C - 4200 option [179][180][182]. - **Natural Rubber**: The import value of Thai rubber machinery decreases. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU 05 contract, try to go long on the NR 03 contract, and hold the RU2605 - NR2605 spread [183][185]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The decline of the US dollar index sets a record. It is recommended to try to go long on the BR 03 contract and hold the BR2603 - NR2603 spread [186][188].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the quantity of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to be weak and volatile, while the far - month May contract can be considered for building long positions at low prices as the supply pressure eases [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Information - The average price of eggs in the main production areas today is 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.62 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin. The mainstream egg prices across the country mostly continued to rise today [4]. - In December, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5% year - on - year, lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in December was about 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [5]. - In the week of December 18, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was about 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age was 486 days, the same as the previous week [5]. - As of the week of December 18, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,023 tons, with little change from the previous week and at a low level over the years [5]. - As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On December 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - As of the week of December 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly less than the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly more than the previous week [6]. - Today, the price of culled chickens across the country increased, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.33 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [7]. Trading Logic - The recent increase in the quantity of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to be weak and volatile, while the far - month May contract can be considered for building long positions at low prices as the supply pressure eases [8]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term February contract is expected to fluctuate within a range. Consider building long positions in the far - month May contract at low prices [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market remain strong due to supportive factors such as the expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and expansion expectations of textile mills in Xinjiang. However, the cotton price has recently experienced a significant correction, and it is necessary to observe whether it can break through the 20 - day line. The short - term trend of US cotton is expected to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton may have a short - term correction risk [4][5][6] - The overall price of domestic pure - cotton yarn remains stable, but the actual transaction center has moved down slightly, and the market trading atmosphere is still weak. The开机 rate of spinning mills in the inland region has declined, while that in Xinjiang remains high. The downstream fabric mills have limited new orders, high inventory, and low acceptance of high - priced yarn, and the market trading activity is further suppressed by the approaching Spring Festival [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), prices increased, with CF05 having the largest increase of 135. For yarn futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), prices also showed an upward trend, except for CY01 which remained unchanged. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed [2] - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 147 yuan/ton, while the price of Cot A remained at 74.45 cents/pound. The price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70, and other spot prices remained mostly stable. In terms of spreads, there were changes in cotton and yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads [2] Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: According to USDA data, the global cotton production in 25/26 is 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from last month; total demand increased by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 16.22 million tons. As of January 10, the cotton planting progress in Brazil in 2025/26 was 31.9%, slower than the same period last year and the three - year average. As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton accounted for 89.2% of the estimated annual production, slower than the same period last year [4] - **Trading Logic**: The expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang has been gradually confirmed, and the sales progress is fast. With improved Sino - US relations and expansion expectations of textile mills in Xinjiang, the cotton fundamentals are strong. However, the price has recently corrected, and it is necessary to observe the 20 - day line [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For cotton, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the short - term trend of US cotton is expected to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton may have a short - term correction risk. For arbitrage and options, a wait - and - see approach is also recommended [6][7] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The overall price of domestic pure - cotton yarn remains stable, but the transaction is weak. The开机 rate of inland spinning mills has declined, while that in Xinjiang remains high. Downstream fabric mills have limited new orders, high inventory, and low acceptance of high - priced yarn. The cotton fabric market has weak trading, and most weavers expect to have an early holiday and are pessimistic about the market [8] Options - **Option Data**: Information such as the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, and other parameters of cotton option contracts is provided. The 10 - day historical volatility of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased [10][11] - **Option Strategy**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended [12] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the price spread between domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, the spread between yarn and cotton contracts, and the inter - period spread of cotton contracts [14][17][21]