Yin He Qi Huo
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银河期货原油现货市场日报-20251015
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 08:47
大宗商品研究所 原油研发报告 原油日报 2025 年 10 月 15 日 | | | 原油现货市场日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025.10.15 三艘驶往日照港的超级油轮目前正寻找替代泊位,此前美国对这个处理 | | | | 中国约十分之一石油进口的码头实施了制裁。根据彭博社汇编的船舶跟踪数据,其中两艘 | | | | 载量高达200万桶的超大型原油运输船正将上海附近的宁波舟山港作为目的地。第三艘正 | | | 贸易物流 | 驶往中国北方的天津。 | | 研究员: | | 2025.10.14 俄罗斯海上原油运量在过去四周攀升至28个月新高,这主要受产量增长和 | | 童川 | | 乌克兰对炼油厂发动袭击的影响,导致原油供应被迫转向出口终端。彭博汇编的船舶跟踪 | | 期货从业证号: | | 数据显示,截至10月12日,港口四周平均每日出货量为374万桶,为2023年6月以来最 | | F3071222 | | 高水平。 | | 投资咨询从业证号: | | 2025.10.15 乌克兰地区州长拉迪·哈比罗夫在Telegram上表示,尽管多次遭到乌克兰 | | Z001701 ...
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20251014
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 13:09
Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the daily performance of various non - ferrous metals on October 14, 2025, including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, with analysis of market trends, relevant information, trading logic, and strategies [2]. Group 2: Market Review Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 84,410 yuan/ton, down 0.47%, and the Shanghai Copper Index reduced its position by 14,799 lots to 551,300 lots. The spot market showed different trends in different regions [2]. Alumina - The Alumina 2601 contract fell 20 yuan to 2,805 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed a general downward trend [10]. Aluminum - The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract remained unchanged at 20,860 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [18]. Zinc - The Shanghai Zinc 2511 fell 0.29% to 22,220 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Zinc Index reduced its position by 2,545 lots to 210,000 lots. The spot market had high - price quotes but poor trading volume [30]. Lead - The Shanghai Lead 2511 fell 0.61% to 17,050 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai Lead Index increased its position by 874 lots to 83,600 lots. The spot price of lead decreased [35]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 fell 820 to 120,830 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 10,910 lots. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [41]. Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 fell 120 to 12,565 yuan/ton, and the index position increased by 5,815 lots. The spot market prices were stable [49]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 280,430 yuan/ton, down 3,120 yuan/ton or 1.10%, and the position decreased by 1,121 lots to 65,110 lots. The spot price decreased [56]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon fell. Spot prices of different grades and downstream product prices showed different trends [88]. Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon fell. Spot prices of different types of polysilicon and related photovoltaic product prices changed [89]. Lithium Carbonate - The Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract rose 240 to 72,760 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 16,830 lots. The spot price decreased [74]. Group 3: Relevant Information Copper - Grasberg has been shut down for nearly a month due to an accident, and its copper concentrate supply may only last until the end of this month. Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 copper production increased year - on - year but decreased quarter - on - quarter [3]. Alumina - There were multiple spot transactions in different regions. The national alumina production capacity and operation situation were reported, and the production of an enterprise in Shanxi was affected by ore shortages [11]. Aluminum - Trump planned to impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods from November 1. China implemented export controls on rare - earth items. China's aluminum exports in September 2025 and the cumulative exports from January to September decreased year - on - year [18]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory increased. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted the global refined zinc supply and demand situation for 2025 and 2026 [31]. Lead - The domestic lead inventory decreased. The International Lead and Zinc Research Group predicted the global lead supply and demand situation for 2025 and 2026 [36]. Nickel - A copper - nickel ore exploration right in Gansu was put up for auction. The LME planned to launch a new mechanism for low - carbon metal trading [42]. Stainless Steel - The EU planned to implement a trade policy on stainless steel, and Mexico launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on Chinese cold - rolled stainless steel [50]. Tin - A Fed official supported two 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year. Peru's tin exports in August and Indonesia's tin exports in September were reported [57]. Industrial Silicon - A South Korean company planned to acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory [61]. Polysilicon - A South Korean company planned to acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory. The polysilicon production and demand situation in October was reported [68]. Lithium Carbonate - A company in Qinghai resumed lithium resource development. BYD's battery installation volume in September 2025 increased year - on - year. A company responded to the battery export control policy. CATL refuted rumors about solid - state battery production [76]. Group 4: Trading Logic Copper - Trump's tariff statement and subsequent easing signals affected the market. The supply of copper mines was tight, and the consumption showed a weakening trend [4]. Alumina - The static surplus of alumina was absorbed by downstream inventory, but the surplus trend remained. The profit of alumina factories was affected, and the production dynamics needed attention [13]. Aluminum - The impact of Trump's tariff policy on aluminum prices was expected to be less severe than in April. The global aluminum supply - demand balance was not significantly affected [20]. Zinc - The domestic zinc supply increased, and the consumption was weak. The overseas market was strong, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic was expected to continue [32]. Lead - The current lead supply - demand was weak, but the supply was weaker. The lead price was expected to rise and then fall due to the expected increase in supply in the second half of October [38]. Nickel - The LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic nickel enterprises had high export enthusiasm. The nickel price was in a shock range, and the Sino - US situation needed attention [43]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel production in October increased, but the demand was restricted. The social inventory increased slightly, and the price was under pressure [51]. Tin - The market was waiting for the development of Trump's tariff threat. The supply of tin mines was still tight, and the demand was slowly recovering [58]. Industrial Silicon - The production in Xinjiang was affected, and the production in the southwest was expected to decrease in November. The demand was strong in the short term, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the medium term [63]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon production increased in October, and the demand was weak. The cancellation of warehouse receipts in November was the core driving factor for the price adjustment [69]. Lithium Carbonate - The trading volume of lithium carbonate was low, and the price was expected to fluctuate in the current range. The Sino - US situation needed attention [76]. Group 5: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: Short - term consolidation was needed, and a long - at - low strategy was recommended. Arbitrage: Hold the inter - market positive arbitrage and arrange the inter - period positive arbitrage after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Options: Wait and see [7]. Alumina - Unilateral: The price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [16]. Aluminum - Unilateral: The medium - term upward trend remained after the short - term panic - driven decline. Wait and see in the short term. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [21]. Zinc - Unilateral: Pay attention to the opening of the export window and arrange short positions at high prices. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [33]. Lead - Unilateral: The lead price was expected to rise due to inventory reduction but may fall due to increased supply. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - Unilateral: Maintain a wide - range shock. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2511 contract [45]. Stainless Steel - Unilateral: The price was expected to decline in a shock. Arbitrage: Wait and see [52]. Tin - Unilateral: Short - term high - level shock, pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar. Options: Wait and see [59]. Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Buy at the lower end of the range and hold previous long positions. Arbitrage: None. Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [64]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Try long positions near the low point of the PS2512 contract in August. Arbitrage: Hold the reverse arbitrage of the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Options: Adjust the previous double - buy strategy, stop profit on the put option and hold the call option [70]. Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Fluctuate between 70,000 and 75,000 yuan. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination of the 2601 contract [77].
银河期货贵金属衍生品日报-20251014
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 13:09
大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 10 月 14 日 研究所副所长:车红云 期货从业证号:F03088215 投资咨询号:Z0017510 研究员:王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号:F03110758 投资咨询号:Z0021675 联系方式: 上海:021-65789219 北京:010-68569781 邮箱: wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天,贵金属在大幅上涨后跳水,伦敦金盘中新高 4179.748,当前交投于 4139 附近; 伦敦银盘中新高 53.579,当前交投于 51.95 美 元附近。受外盘驱动,沪金最终收涨 2.7%,报 938.98 元/克; 沪银主力合约最终 收涨 2.64%,报 11533 元/千克。 2.美元指数: 美元指数高走,当前交投于 99.4 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率下挫,当前交投于 4%附近。 4.人民币汇率:人民币兑美元小幅走弱,当前交投于 7.14 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.美联储动向:2026 年 FOMC 票委、费城联储主席保尔森暗示 ...
银河期货苹果日报-20251014
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 13:08
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 10 月 14 日 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号: F3013727 投资咨询证号: Z0014425 联系方式: :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 92 | | | | | | 成 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.50 | 109.43 | 0.07 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 3. ਰੇਟ | 3.95 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.10 | 7.10 | 0.00 | | 期货价格 | | | | ...
银河期货白糖日报-20251014
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 13:03
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 白糖日报 2025 年 10 月 14 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号: F3013727 投资咨询证号: 第二部分 行情研判 【重要资讯】 1.巴西对外贸易秘书处(Secex)公布的出口数据显示,巴西 10 月前两周出口糖和糖蜜 180.14 万吨,较去年同期的 164.58 万吨增加 15.56 万吨,增幅 9.45%;日均出口量为 22.51 万 吨。2024 年 10 月,巴西糖出口量为 372.93 万吨,日均出口量为 16.95 万吨。 2.沐甜 14 日讯 据报道,赤峰众益 2025/2026 甜菜生产期于 2025 年 10 月 13 日 7 时准 时开机,一切顺利。截至目前 25/26 制糖期内蒙古已有 11 家糖厂开机,最后一家预计将于 明天开机。目前内蒙凌云海 25/26 制糖期白砂糖报价 5850 元/吨,绵白糖报价 5950 元/吨。 3.沐甜 14 日讯 据了解,截至目前 25/26 制糖期新疆已有 13 家糖厂开机,最后一家糖 厂预计将于 10 月 20 日之后开。目前新疆集团厂仓陈糖报价仍然维持 5550-5600 ...
银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20251014
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 13:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The future trend of US cotton is expected to be mainly volatile, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weakening volatile trend. The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [8]. - With the new cotton harvest, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand in the market is mediocre, and its boosting effect on the futures price is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 35, 40, and 30 respectively; CY01 decreased by 70, while CY05 and CY09 remained unchanged. Trading volumes and open interest showed different degrees of increase or decrease [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 20, while CY IndexC32S remained stable. The price of FCY IndexC33S increased by 21, and the price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70 [3]. - **Spreads**: In cotton and yarn inter - month spreads and cross - product spreads, the values and their changes varied. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was - 55 with a 5 - point increase, and the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6025 with a 35 - point decrease [3]. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: In Hutubi County, 869,000 mu of cotton has entered the harvest period with a 100% mechanized harvest rate. The spot price of new cotton in 2025/26 in the inland warehouse is stable. In September, the textile and clothing export volume was 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export was 221.686 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.33% [6]. - **Trading Logic**: This year, the output of Xinjiang cotton is high, and ginneries' enthusiasm for acquisition is average. There is no large - scale rush to purchase, and the acquisition price is around 6 yuan/kg. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand is mediocre, and its boosting effect on the futures price is limited [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect US cotton to be volatile and Zhengzhou cotton to be slightly weakening volatile. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The Zhengzhou cotton market continued to be volatile and weak last night. The theoretical cash flow of inland spinning enterprises turned from loss to profit, and the profit of Xinjiang spinning enterprises increased. The pure - cotton yarn market is still divided, with Xinjiang performing better than the inland. The overall price of pure - cotton yarn is in a stalemate, stable with a downward trend. The demand for pure - cotton cloth is weak, and the market price is stable with a downward trend [8][9]. Options - **Option Data**: The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities, and other data of CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC are provided. The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly, and the implied volatilities of different option contracts varied [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased in both open interest and trading volume. The option strategy is to wait and see [14][15]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spread between different cotton contracts [16][17][20]
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251014
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 13:02
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 10 月 14 日 研究员:刘倩楠 期货从业证号: Z0014425 联系方式: :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3237 | 3211 | 26 | 01-05 | -102 | -162 | 60 | | JD05 | 3339 | 3373 | -34 | 05-09 | -528 | -500 | -28 | | JD09 | 3867 | 3873 | -6 | 09-01 | 630 | 662 | -32 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.53 | 1.52 | 0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.12 | 1.10 | 0.02 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | ...
螺纹热卷日报-20251014
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 10:10
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector continued to decline today but rebounded slightly at the end of the session. Steel spot trading was weak overall, with poor speculative interest and mainly刚需 purchases. After the holiday, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern with limited downside space. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. Also, the "15th Five - Year Plan" content will affect market fluctuations. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to expand [8]. - The steel market is under pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and a significant drop in demand. Although the short - term market is affected by news and under pressure, the low valuation of the futures market and the rise in thermal coal prices suggest that steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: RB05 was at 3114 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan from yesterday), RB10 at 2970 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan), and RB01 at 3061 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan). The 05 - contract rebar盘面 profit was - 142 yuan (up 7 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 285 yuan (up 19 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 166 yuan (up 9 yuan) [3]. - **Rebar Spot**: Shanghai Zhongtian was at 3180 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Nanjing Xicheng at 3280 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), Shandong Shiheng at 3160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Tangshan Tanggang at 3110 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). The cheapest delivery product was 3160 yuan/ton. Rebar profits in different regions showed various changes, with East China rebar profit at - 228 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) and Tangshan rebar profit at - 319 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: HC05 was at 3248 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan), HC10 at 3442 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and HC01 at 3241 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan). The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil盘面 profit was - 8 yuan (up 6 yuan), the 10 - contract was 187 yuan (up 40 yuan), and the 01 - contract was 14 yuan (up 11 yuan) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was at 3220 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was at 3260 - 3290 yuan/ton (down 20 - 30 yuan). The cheapest delivery product was 3260 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil profits in different regions also changed, with Tianjin hot - rolled coil profit at - 341 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan) and East China hot - rolled coil profit at - 227 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan) [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3180 yuan (down 10 yuan), Beijing Jingye was 3130 yuan (down 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan (down 30 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3220 yuan (down 30 yuan) [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Important News** - In September 2025, 19,858 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. Domestic sales were 9,249 units, a year - on - year increase of 21.5%, and exports were 10,609 units, a year - on - year increase of 29%. From January to September, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% [11]. - The Ministry of Transport issued a document on charging port fees for US ships, which has limited impact on iron ore transportation [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil contract basis, spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [15].
银河期货铁合金日报-20251014
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 10:09
大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 14 日 | | | | 第一部分 | 市场信息 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | 期货合约 收盘价 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 5378 | | -28 | -232 | 92807 | -68581 | 97482 | -22954 | | SM主力合约 5738 | | -8 | -82 | 133881 | -24763 | 382892 | 3627 | | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 5250 | | -50 | -100 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5650 | 0 | -30 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 5200 | | -30 | -130 | 硅锰6517宁夏 | 5600 | 0 | -2 ...
银河期货粕类日报-20251014
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 10:07
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Pulse Daily Report - October 14, 2025: Macro Impact Reduces, Market Drops Significantly" [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Market - **Soybean Meal**: The 01 contract closed at 2902, down 30; 05 contract at 2728, down 18; 09 contract at 2844, down 14. Spot basis varied in different regions [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 01 contract closed at 2348, down 44; 05 contract at 2291, down 24; 09 contract at 2380, down 23. Spot basis also changed in different regions [4]. Spread - **Soybean Meal Spread**: 15 - spread was 174, down 12; 59 - spread was - 116, down 4; 91 - spread was - 58, up 16 [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spread**: 15 - spread was 57, down 20; 59 - spread was - 89, down 1; 91 - spread was 32, up 21 [4]. Cross - Variety Spread - **Soy - Rapeseed 01 Spread**: 554, up from 540; 09 spread was 464, up from 455. Oil - meal ratio 01 was 2.839, up from 2.820 [4]. Spot Spread - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal**: 414, down 4; Rapeseed Meal - Sunflower Meal was 260, down 20; Soybean Meal - Sunflower Meal was 624, up 6 [4]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Market - The US has suspended report publishing, with limited new information. Old - crop ending stocks were slightly raised, and new - crop supply increased slightly due to a small cut in yield but an increase in planted area. The market is mainly affected by exports [5]. South American Market - South American old - crop is in a relatively loose supply - demand situation. Brazil's soybean production is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and crushing volume by 8.21 million tons. Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, but they are optimistic about exports [5]. International Market - International soybean meal supply pressure is significant, with an expected increase of 21.536 million tons in major产区' crushing volume, while imports of major importers increase slightly [5]. Domestic Market - **Soybean Meal**: As of October 10, soybean crushing was 1.2893 million tons, with an operating rate of 35.99%. Soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, up 6.37% from last week and 14.29% year - on - year. Soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons, down 9.26% from last week but up 6.17% year - on - year [7]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: As of October 10, coastal oil mills' rapeseed crushing was 14,000 tons, with an operating rate of 3.73%. Rapeseed inventory was 18,000 tons, down 8,000 tons from last week, and rapeseed meal inventory was 11,500 tons, down 15,300 tons [7]. Group 4: Macro Analysis - Sino - US communication has reduced trade conflict concerns, but the Madrid negotiation provided little clear information on beans. With China's decreasing demand for US soybeans in the long - term, the upside of the domestic soybean meal market is limited [8]. Group 5: Logic Analysis - The market is falling. Argentina's increased exports have squeezed US soybeans' export space, but there is still support for US soybeans. The upside of US and Brazilian soybeans is limited. Domestic soybean meal supply is relatively loose, and the pressure may continue. Rapeseed meal has low inventory but weak demand, and its price lacks volatility [9]. Group 6: Trading Strategies - **Single - Side**: Hold short positions in far - month soybean meal contracts. - **Arbitrage**: Long M11 and short M01. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle structure [10]