1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn report significantly increased the production forecast, leading to a sharp decline in US corn prices. However, the global corn supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downside space for US corn prices. The import profit of foreign corn is rising, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2126 yuan. The domestic corn and starch markets have different trends, with corn showing regional differences and starch being affected by corn prices and inventory changes. The report suggests short - selling 03 corn and 03 starch, and adopting a short - term cumulative put option strategy for corn options, while remaining on the sidelines for arbitrage [4][6][7][8][9][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures盘面 - C2601 closed at 2298, down 3 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 0, a 100% decrease, and an open interest of 9,186, a 0.12% decrease - C2605 closed at 2277, down 2 (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 184,628, a 10.50% decrease, and an open interest of 621,422, a 2.87% increase - C2509 closed at 2291, down 6 (-0.26%), with a trading volume of 7,901, a 11.98% decrease, and an open interest of 53,279, a 1.06% increase - CS2601 closed at 2540, up 2 (0.08%), with a trading volume of 100, an 80% decrease, and an open interest of 2,400, unchanged - CS2605 closed at 2591, down 5 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 14,970, a 17.23% increase, and an open interest of 53,742, a 7.87% increase - CS2509 closed at 2619, down 7 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 230, a 44.44% decrease, and an open interest of 2,876, a 1.20% increase [2] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn: The prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port were 2150, 2180, 2304, 2276, 2340, 2420, and 2470 respectively, with price changes of 10, 0, 6, 10, 10, 0, and 10 respectively. The basis was -141, -111, 13, -15, 63, 129, and 179 respectively [2] - Starch: The prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade were 2730, 2700, 2700, 2860, 2800, 2880, and 2750 respectively, with price changes of 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0 respectively. The basis was 139, 109, 109, 269, 209, 289, and 159 respectively [2] 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn inter - month spreads: C01 - C05 was 21, down 1; C05 - C09 was - 14, up 4; C09 - C01 was - 7, down 3 - Starch inter - month spreads: CS01 - CS05 was - 51, up 7; CS05 - CS09 was - 28, up 2; CS09 - CS01 was 79, down 9 - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 was 328, down 1; CS01 - C01 was 242, up 5; CS05 - C05 was 314, down 3 [2] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn report led to a sharp decline in US corn prices, but the global supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downside. The import profit of foreign corn is rising, and the domestic northern port closing prices are rising. The northeast corn spot is strong, while the supply in North China is increasing, and the corn price is stable. The price difference between northeast and North China corn is narrowing. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, and wheat prices are stable. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the downstream feed enterprise inventory is increasing. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][6] 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is increasing, and the Shandong corn spot is stable. The northeast starch spot is stable. The corn starch inventory has increased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 112.5 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 2.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.1%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot is also strong, but enterprise profitability is declining. The 03 starch contract followed the market up and then down, and it is expected that the short - term rebound space for the 03 starch contract is limited [7] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Start short - selling 03 corn and continue to short - sell 03 starch - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [9][10] 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategy: Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy and conduct rolling operations [11] 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The report includes six charts showing the northern port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [14][15][16][18][19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 13th, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5682, down 0.28%, with a decrease of 3885 in positions; the manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5916, down 0.24%, with an increase of 3675 in positions [6]. - For silicon - iron, the spot price was stable on the 13th. The supply side may contract in the future due to the need for technological transformation in Shaanxi enterprises. The demand side has limited future blast - furnace resumption space. With strong cost support and supply contraction expectations, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [6]. - For manganese - silicon, on the 13th, manganese ore and manganese - silicon spot prices were moderately strong. The supply side is generally stable, and the demand side is supported by blast - furnace resumption and pre - Spring Festival restocking. Driven by cost, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [6]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral strategy is to be volatile and bullish in the short term due to the expected improvement in supply - demand and cost push; the arbitrage strategy is to wait and see; the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Data**: The SF main contract closed at 5682, down 16 for the day and 94 for the week, with a trading volume of 162,961 (down 38,469) and an open interest of 224,722 (down 3885). The SM main contract closed at 5916, down 14 for the day and 2 for the week, with a trading volume of 143,149 (down 1617) and an open interest of 260,989 (up 3675) [3]. - **Spot Data**: For silicon - iron, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5450, 5420, 5350, 5750, and 5850 respectively, with different weekly changes. For manganese - silicon, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5750, 5650, 5850, 5820, and 5750 respectively, with different weekly changes [3]. - **Basis/Spread Data**: The basis and spread data of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis of silicon - iron was - 232, up 16 for the day and 184 for the week [3]. - **Raw Material Data**: For manganese ore in Tianjin, the prices of Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabon lump had different daily and weekly changes. The prices of blue charcoal small materials in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [3]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Volatile and bullish in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. - **Important Information**: On the 13th, the price quotes of manganese ore in Tianjin Port changed. A large steel group in Hebei increased its silicon - manganese procurement in January compared to December 2025 [8][9]. Relevant Attachments - The report includes various graphs such as the price trends of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM contracts, the monthly spreads of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, the basis of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, the spot prices of silicon - manganese, the electricity prices of ferroalloys, the production costs and profits of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon [10][13][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the price of edible oils will fluctuate. Palm oil can be traded with a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the edible oil market due to a lack of independent driving factors. For the trading of spreads and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Price and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2605 is 7986 with a decline of 8. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8506, 8546, and 8376 respectively, with corresponding basis of 560, 520, and 390. The closing price of palm oil 2605 is 8778 with an increase of 54. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8748, 8768, and 8908 respectively, with corresponding basis of - 30, - 10, and 130. The closing price of rapeseed oil 2605 is 9017 with an increase of 37. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi are 9817 and 10017 respectively, with corresponding basis of 800 and 1000 [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 144 with an increase of 14, that of palm oil is 100 with a decline of 6, and that of rapeseed oil is 31 with an increase of 13 [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 05 contract, the Y - P spread is - 792 with a decline of 62, the OI - Y spread is 1031, and the OI - P spread is 239 with a decline of 17. The oil - meal ratio is 2.89 with an increase of 0.03 [2] - **Import Profit**: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for the 2 - month shipment is 1062.5, and the FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the 2 - month shipment is 1050, with a negative profit of - 1369 [2] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: As of the second week of 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 102.5 million tons, that of palm oil is 73.6 million tons, and that of rapeseed oil is 25.1 million tons [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: In December 2026, India's palm oil imports were 507,204 tons, lower than November's 632,341 tons; sunflower oil imports were 349,929 tons, higher than November's 142,953 tons; soybean oil imports were 505,112 tons, higher than November's 370,661 tons. Total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, higher than November's 1.18 million tons [4] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 73.6 million tons, a 0.30% increase from the previous week. The origin price was stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed. There were rumors of two near - month purchases. After - market news that Indonesia may not implement B50 this year led to a decline in the Malaysian market. The short - term market lacks a clear driving force, and the high - inventory situation will continue, with a slow de - stocking speed. The short - term price will fluctuate [4] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil price declined slightly. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.7658 million tons, with an operating rate of 48.58%. As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.0251 million tons, a 5.17% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the basis is stable. The weekly trading volume increased. There are rumors of customs clearance delays. With a decrease in soybean arrivals, the soybean oil inventory may decline slightly, but the overall supply is sufficient, and the price will fluctuate at a low level [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil price increased slightly. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 0, and the inventory of rapeseed was exhausted. As of January 9, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 251,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week, at a relatively neutral level. The European rapeseed oil FOB price was stable at around $1050, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 1300. The domestic available rapeseed oil supply is tight, and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. In the short term, rumors of state reserves release in the first quarter and the expectation of improved China - Canada relations restrict the upward space of near - month contracts, but the firm offer from COFCO and the time required for rapeseed purchases to arrive provide support for the price [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: Short - term, edible oils will fluctuate. Palm oil can be traded with a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the edible oil market [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Wait and see [11] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides eight figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and various monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oils, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The monthly supply and demand report is bearish, but the domestic spot market is strong. The overall price of the international soybean market is under pressure due to the relatively loose supply - demand situation. The domestic soybean meal spot shows some support in the near - term, but the medium - to - long - term price pressure still exists. The rapeseed meal market is mainly affected by macro factors, with general demand and more supply - side changes [3][4][8]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach for single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options [9]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Basis**: For soybean meal, the 01 contract closed at 3154 with a rise of 30, and the spot basis in Tianjin increased by 10. For rapeseed meal, the 05 contract closed at 2314 with a decline of 16, and the spot basis in Guangdong decreased by 14. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly decreased, and the monthly spread of soybean meal continued to be strong, while that of rapeseed meal changed little [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 15 - spread of soybean meal increased by 59, and the 15 - spread of rapeseed meal increased by 2616. The 59 - spread of soybean meal decreased by 2, and the 59 - spread of rapeseed meal remained unchanged. The 91 - spread of soybean meal decreased by 57, and the 91 - spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 2616 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Futures Spread**: The spread between soybean and rapeseed 01 decreased, and the oil - meal ratio 01 also decreased [3]. - **Spot Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 19, the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal decreased by 20, and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal decreased by 9 [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply and demand report did not boost the US soybean market. The soybean carry - over inventory was raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market expectation. The quarterly grain inventory data was also bearish. The supply in South America is affected, with good growth of new crops in Brazil and increased exports of old crops. The old - crop production in Argentina is large, and the recent crushing and exports have increased [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market is in a relatively loose supply - demand state. The oil mill operating rate increased, the supply was sufficient, the提货 volume decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly but remained high. The market transaction increased significantly, and the spot was less. The overall demand remained good, and the uncertainty of future supply supported the price. As of January 9, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.7658 million tons, the operating rate was 48.58%, the soybean inventory was 7.1312 million tons, an increase of 0.4% from last week and 17.96% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a decrease of 10.78% from last week and an increase of 72.68% year - on - year. The rapeseed meal demand has gradually weakened, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, the rapeseed supply is low, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory is still at a relatively high level [7]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - **International Market**: The downward pressure on US soybeans has significantly increased. The bearish reports and good yields in South American producing areas are expected to maintain the overall pressure. The short - term dry weather in Brazil has little impact on crop growth, and the harvest is expected to proceed smoothly. The supply - demand situation of the international soybean market is still relatively loose, and the price is expected to be under pressure [8]. - **Domestic Market**: The future soybean arrivals in China will gradually decrease, and there is still great uncertainty on the supply side. The spot market has shown some support recently, driving the near - term disk. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is still in a relatively loose state, and the price pressure still exists. The recent rapeseed meal is mainly affected by macro factors, with general demand and more supply - side changes. After a large decline in the early stage, it has been stable recently, and the spread has stabilized after continuous expansion. If the rapeseed meal supply does not change much, the spread is expected to narrow as the soybean meal supply tightens [8]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude [9]. - **Options**: Use the strategy of selling wide straddles [9]. 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit The soybean pressing profit varies by origin, shipping date, and contract. For example, the Brazilian 2 - month contract has a current disk pressing profit of 99.77 and a spot pressing profit of 228.77, with a profit change of 23.44 compared to yesterday [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market trends, fundamental factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each market segment. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market trends: Accelerated upward movement on Monday, with all major contracts rising. The market sentiment was high, and the trading volume reached a record high [20][21]. - Trading strategies: Suggested to go long on IC/IM on dips, conduct IM/IC 2606 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads for options [22]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market trends: Rebounded as expected on Monday, but the upward space may be limited. The market sentiment has improved in the short - term, but there are still unfavorable factors [23][24]. - Trading strategies: Suggested to take partial profits on previous long positions on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Market trends: Supply pressure is evident, and the market is likely to decline. The USDA reports are bearish [26][27]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a bearish approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short strangle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - Market trends: International sugar prices fluctuated and closed lower, while domestic sugar prices are in a range - bound pattern. Cost provides some support, but there is also sales pressure [29][30][31]. - Trading strategies: Expect international sugar prices to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term. For domestic sugar, consider low - buying and high - selling within the range, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell put options [31][32]. Oilseeds and Oils - Market trends: The USDA report is bearish. The market is affected by macro - sentiment, geopolitics, and bio - diesel factors, showing a volatile pattern [33][34]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term volatility to increase, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [35]. Corn/Corn Starch - Market trends: Wheat and corn auctions continue, and the spot market is strong. The US corn report is bearish, and the domestic market has short - term stability but long - term pressure [36][38]. - Trading strategies: Consider a long - term bullish approach for CBOT March corn after it stabilizes, try short - selling for March corn, widen the spread between May corn and starch on dips, and stay on the sidelines for options [39]. Live Hogs - Market trends: Supply pressure is increasing, and the spot price is falling. The overall inventory is high [40][42]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a short - selling approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short strangle strategy for options [42]. Peanuts - Market trends: Spot prices are stable, and the market is bottom - oscillating. Import volume has decreased, and the cost of warehouse receipts is high [43][44]. - Trading strategies: Go long on May peanuts on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell PK603 - C - 8200 options [44][45]. Eggs - Market trends: Demand has improved, and egg prices are stable with a slight increase. The short - term supply pressure has eased [46][47]. - Trading strategies: Expect the February contract to oscillate in the short - term, consider going long on the May contract on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - Market trends: Cold - storage inventory is low, and apple prices are firm. The cost of warehouse receipts is high, and the demand is expected to be good [50][51]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions in the May contract, go short on the October contract on rallies, conduct long May and short October arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market trends: Sales progress is fast, and cotton prices are oscillating. The USDA data shows a positive supply - demand situation, and the market has bullish factors [54][55]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term range - bound movement for US cotton, stay on the sidelines for Zhengzhou cotton, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [55]. Black Metals Steel - Market trends: Steel inventory is accumulating, and prices are oscillating. The black sector was weak at night, and the demand is affected by seasonality [57]. - Trading strategies: Expect a weak - oscillating trend, short the hot - rolled coal ratio on rallies, hold short positions on the hot - rolled rebar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market trends: Prices are fluctuating significantly, and the market is affected by sentiment and expectations. The fundamentals have not changed significantly [59][60]. - Trading strategies: Take partial profits on long positions gradually, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [61]. Iron Ore - Market trends: Market expectations are volatile, and ore prices are bearish at high levels. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [62][63]. - Trading strategies: Go short on iron ore at high levels with a light position, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [63]. Ferroalloys - Market trends: Driven by cost, prices are oscillating strongly. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have different characteristics [64][65]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term upward oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [65]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Market trends: Geopolitics and policy games are intertwined, and prices are highly volatile at high levels. The market is affected by multiple factors [67][68]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions in Shanghai gold near the previous high at the end of December and Shanghai silver near the previous high on January 7th, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [70][71]. Platinum and Palladium - Market trends: The precious - metal market continues, and prices are at high levels. The fundamentals of platinum are better than those of palladium [72][73]. - Trading strategies: Go long on platinum on dips, be cautious when going long on palladium before the "232 investigation" result is announced, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [73][74]. Copper - Market trends: Short - term fluctuations are increasing, but the upward trend remains. The market is affected by supply - demand and financial factors [75][76]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions entered at 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [78]. Alumina - Market trends: Commodity sentiment and fundamentals are in conflict, and price fluctuations are increasing. The supply is abundant [79]. - Trading strategies: Expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market trends: The market is strong. Geopolitics and fundamentals affect the price, and the global supply - demand is supportive [80][81]. - Trading strategies: Expect a strong - oscillating trend, beware of price fluctuations caused by capital outflows, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [81]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market trends: The market is oscillating at a high level. Geopolitics and fundamentals affect the price, and the cost provides support [82]. - Trading strategies: Expect a strong - oscillating trend, beware of price fluctuations caused by capital outflows, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [82]. Zinc - Market trends: Pay attention to the impact of capital. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak [84][85]. - Trading strategies: Go short on zinc at high levels with a light position, beware of upward price movement driven by long - side capital, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85]. Lead - Market trends: Hold long positions and raise the stop - loss level. The supply is limited, and the demand has resilience [88][89]. - Trading strategies: Hold profitable long positions and raise the stop - loss level, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options appropriately [90]. Nickel - Market trends: The financial attribute is strengthening, and a low - buying approach is recommended. The market is affected by geopolitics and inflation expectations [93]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a low - buying approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [94]. Stainless Steel - Market trends: The price follows nickel. The inventory is decreasing, but the capital inflow is limited [95][96]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a low - buying approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [96]. Industrial Silicon - Market trends: Short - term strength, medium - term short - selling on rallies. The demand is weakening, and the supply is slightly in surplus [97]. - Trading strategies: Go short on industrial silicon on rallies in the medium - term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [97]. Polysilicon - Market trends: Export tax - rebate cancellation and factory production cuts lead to short - term stabilization. The market is affected by policies and production cuts [98][99]. - Trading strategies: Be cautious when participating in futures trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. Lithium Carbonate - Market trends: Optimistic sentiment drives the price up. The demand is better than expected, and the supply is tight [100]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions at low levels, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use protective strategies for options [102]. Tin - Market trends: Beware of selling pressure caused by a change in macro - sentiment, and the supply shortage has not reversed. The market is affected by supply - demand and macro - factors [102][103]. - Trading strategies: Be cautious of short - term volatility, stay on the sidelines for options [104]. Shipping Container Shipping - Market trends: The Maersk Denver passed through the Red Sea, and Trump imposed secondary tariffs on Iran. The spot freight rate has reached a high point, and the demand is at a high level [105]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, go long on the June - October calendar spread on dips [106]. Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - Market trends: Geopolitics drives the price up. The market is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors [107][108]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range fluctuations, pay attention to the Iranian situation, go long on the domestic gasoline - diesel spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [108]. Asphalt - Market trends: Venezuelan oil is expected to be compliant, and there is a game in cost changes. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season [110][112]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range fluctuations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [112]. Fuel Oil - Market trends: Geopolitics is bullish, but the fundamentals are weak. The market is affected by geopolitics and supply - demand [113][117]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term upward oscillation, beware of geopolitical risks, hold the FU59 calendar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [118]. Natural Gas - Market trends: TTF/JKM is oscillating at a low level, and HH is bottom - seeking. The market is affected by weather and supply - demand [119][120]. - Trading strategies: Hold short positions in TTF and JKM, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on TTF or JKM [121]. LPG - Market trends: Strong current situation but weak expectations. The market is affected by supply - demand and import costs [122][124]. - Trading strategies: Pay attention to the Iranian situation, be bearish on long - term far - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [124]. PX&PTA - Market trends: Downstream polyester production cuts are increasing, and geopolitical disturbances strengthen cost support. The market is affected by supply - demand and geopolitics [125][126]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, conduct calendar spread arbitrage for PX&PTA March and May contracts, and stay on the sidelines for options [127]. BZ&EB - Market trends: Pure benzene is expected to decrease in supply, and styrene is boosted by exports. The market is affected by supply - demand and exports [128]. - Trading strategies: Look for short - selling opportunities for pure benzene at high levels, short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [129]. Ethylene Glycol - Market trends: Downstream polyester production cuts are increasing, and the price upside is limited. The market is affected by supply - demand [130][131]. - Trading strategies: Expect a weak - oscillating trend [131]. Short - Fiber - Market trends: The purchasing sentiment is cautious, and the processing margin is under pressure. The market is affected by supply - demand and production cuts [132][133]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [135][136]. Bottle Chips - Market trends: Some maintenance plans are announced. The market is affected by supply - demand and maintenance [136][137]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [138]. Propylene - Market trends: Downstream factories are actively purchasing. The market is affected by supply - demand and cost [138][139][140]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [140]. Plastic PP - Market trends: The market is strong. The market is affected by supply - demand and policies [141]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions in the L 2605 contract, set a stop - loss at 6600 points, stay on the sidelines for the PP 2605 contract, pay attention to the support at 6450 points, sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract, and set a stop - loss at 51.0 points [143]. Caustic Soda - Market trends: Commodity sentiment has improved. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [144]. - Trading strategies: Expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [145][146]. PVC - Market trends: The market is oscillating. The market is affected by supply - demand and export policies [147]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines [148]. Soda Ash - Market trends: Wide - range oscillation this week. The market is affected by supply - demand and cost [149][151]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on far - month contracts at high levels [151]. Glass - Market trends: Wide - range oscillation. The market is affected by supply - demand and cost [153][155]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range oscillation this week, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [155]. Methanol - Market trends: Wide - range oscillation. The market is affected by supply - demand, international production, and geopolitics [156]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines, pay attention to the 5 - 9 calendar spread, and sell put options on pull - backs [157]. Urea - Market trends: High - level oscillation. The market is affected by supply - demand, international bidding, and policies [159]. - Trading strategies: Go short on urea with a light position, and hedging enterprises can look for hedging opportunities [160]. Pulp - Market trends: The pulp price is oscillating widely at a high level. The market is affected by supply - demand [161][163]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and arbitrage, sell the OP2602 - C - 4300 option [164]. Logs - Market trends: The spot price has rebounded slightly. Pay attention to the delivery in Chongqing and Yantai. The market is affected by supply - demand [165][168]. - Trading strategies: Aggressive investors can go long with a small position, pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse calendar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [168]. Offset Printing Paper - Market trends: High inventory restricts the implementation of price - increase letters for cultural paper. The market is affected by supply - demand [169][170]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and arbitrage, sell the OP2602 - C - 4300 option [170]. Natural Rubber - Market trends: The bonded - area inventory is accumulating, but the

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - "粕类日报" dated January 12, 2026 [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core Viewpoints - The supply of meal products still faces pressure, and prices are oscillating. The international soybean market remains relatively loose in supply, with price pressure expected. Domestic spot supply of soybean meal is also relatively loose, while rapeseed meal is expected to move in a sideways pattern [1][3][4][6] 4. Market Conditions Summary 4.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 3124, 2790, and 2886 respectively, with changes of 69, 4, and 10. Spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao increased by 10, while in Nantong it decreased by 2 [3] - **Rapeseed Meal Futures**: The closing prices of contracts 05 and 09 were 2330 and 2394 respectively, with changes of -8 and -4. Spot basis in Guangdong and Guangxi decreased by 2 [3] - **Monthly Spreads**: For soybean meal, the 15 - spread increased by 65, the 59 - spread decreased by 6, and the 91 - spread decreased by 59. For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread increased by 8, the 59 - spread decreased by 4, and the 91 - spread decreased by 4 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The soybean - rapeseed 01 spread increased, and the oil - meal ratio 01 decreased. The spot spread of soybean meal minus rapeseed meal increased by 14, and the spread of rapeseed meal minus sunflower meal decreased by 10 [3] 4.2 Market Trends - The US soybean market showed a slight increase after the release of the monthly supply - demand report. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets oscillated slightly. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to rise but is expected to narrow [3] 5. Fundamental Analysis 5.1 International Market - The overall supply - demand of the US soybean market is loose, with downward price pressure. South American supply factors are increasing. Brazil's new - crop sowing progress is accelerating but remains at a low level compared to the same period in history. Brazilian new - crop is expected to be a bumper harvest, with exports likely to increase, but it depends on actual yields. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and its recent exports and crushing have increased [4] 5.2 Domestic Market - The domestic spot market of soybean meal has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The oil mill operating rate is increasing, supply is sufficient, and inventory is at a high level. As of January 9, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.7658 million tons, the operating rate was 48.58%, soybean inventory was 7.1312 million tons (a 0.4% increase from last week and a 17.96% increase year - on - year), and soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons (a 10.78% decrease from last week and a 72.68% increase year - on - year). The demand for rapeseed meal is gradually weakening, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, and the supply pressure remains [5] 6. Logic Analysis - The US soybean market is oscillating. Brazil's short - term weather has little impact on crop growth, and the pressure of a bumper harvest may continue. The international soybean market supply is loose, and prices are under pressure. Domestic soybean arrivals are expected to decrease, but supply is uncertain. In the long - term, supply is still relatively loose, and prices face pressure. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to face pressure [6] 7. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Adopt a short - selling strategy - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see - **Options**: Use the strategy of selling wide straddles [7] 8. Soybean Pressing Profit - Pressing profits from Brazilian soybeans vary by shipping date. For February, the spot pressing profit increased by 47.92 compared to yesterday. For March, it increased by 39.38. For April, it increased by 36.55. For May, it increased by 29.26. For June, it increased by 37.85. For July, it increased by 43.59 [8]

研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 【生猪日报】出栏略有增加 现货整体反弹 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2026/1/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 12.88 | 12.91 | -0.03 | 山西 （-100） | 12.65 | 12.58 | 0.07 | | 湖北（0） | 12.70 | 12.70 | 0.00 | 辽宁 （-300） | 12.42 | 12.21 | 0.21 | | 安徽（200） | 13.11 | 13.11 | 0.00 | 吉林（-300） | 12.28 | 12.05 | 0.23 | | 湖南（100） | 12.73 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price in the futures market continued to rise today, while the spot steel trading volume was generally average. The basis slightly shrunk, with a small amount of spot-futures purchases and mainly low-price transactions. - Last week, the production of the five major steel products increased, and the molten iron output continued to rise due to the recovery of profit levels. The total steel inventory started to accumulate, but the hot-rolled coil inventory continued to decline, with the inventory shifting from the factory warehouse to the social warehouse, and the overall rebar inventory accumulated. - Affected by the season, the apparent demand for building materials further weakened, and the funds available to downstream construction sites decreased. The demand for hot-rolled coils slightly declined, but there was a replenishment demand in the manufacturing industry before the Spring Festival. The steel export performance in January remained strong. - On the raw material side, the coal mine inventory decreased. Driven by market news, the commodity market recently experienced a sharp rise, which led to an increase in steel prices. The structural shortage of PB fines has not been resolved, and the first quarter is also the traditional off-season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills have a rigid demand for replenishment, providing cost support. - Recently, the continuous resumption of molten iron production has also limited the further rise of steel prices. In the short term, the steel price will maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend, but the upside space is limited. [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: The prices of RB05, RB10, and RB01 contracts increased by 21 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, and 44 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads between different contracts and the contract basis also changed. The rebar profit on the futures market showed different trends for different contracts. [2] - **Rebar Spot**: The prices of rebar in different regions changed slightly, with the lowest delivery price at 3200 yuan/ton. The regional price differences and spot profits also showed different changes. [2] - **Hot-rolled Coil Futures**: The prices of HC05, HC10, and HC01 contracts increased by 17 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton, and 45 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads between different contracts and the contract basis also changed. The hot-rolled coil profit on the futures market showed different trends for different contracts. [2] - **Hot-rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of hot-rolled coils in different regions changed slightly, with the lowest delivery price at 3280 yuan/ton. The regional price differences and spot profits also showed different changes. [2] Market Analysis - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3280 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye rebar was 3170 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil was 3290 yuan (+20), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil was 3190 yuan (-). [5] - **Trading Strategy** - **Single-sided Trading**: The steel price will maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend, but the upside space is limited. [7] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil/coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil/rebar spread. [8] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see. [9] - **Important Information** - From January 12th, Langfang City issued an orange warning for heavy pollution weather and launched a Level II emergency response. [10] - In December 2025, 472 projects started across the country, with a total investment of approximately 534.092 billion yuan. The total investment in 2025 was approximately 27.52 trillion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of start-up investment were Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Anhui, with total investments of 121.238 billion yuan, 59.41 billion yuan, and 49.103 billion yuan respectively. [11] Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, basis, spreads, and profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils in different contracts and regions from 2022 to 2026. [15][16][17]

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2026 年 01 月 12 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | 2026/1/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2605收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | 豆油 | 7994 | 0 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8514 | | | | 8564 | 8384 | 570 | | 0 | 520 0 | 390 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8724 | 42 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8694 | | | | 8684 | 8854 | -30 | | 0 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 12th, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5698, up 1.17% with a decrease of 8483 in positions. The manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5930, up 0.44% with an increase of 4207 in positions [6]. - For silicon - iron, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend on the 12th, rising 50 yuan/ton in some regions. The short - term supply start - up rate rebounded slightly, but due to the differential electricity price in Shaanxi, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future. The demand side shows that although iron - making is in the resumption cycle, the accumulation of steel inventory may restrict the resumption space of blast furnaces. With stable electricity prices in the main production areas, and considering the warming of the commodity market sentiment and the supply contraction expectation, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [6]. - For manganese - silicon, the manganese ore spot was stable with a slight upward trend on the 12th, and the manganese - silicon spot rose by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The start - up rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and new production capacity was put into operation at the end of the year, keeping the supply stable. The demand side is supported by the expected resumption of blast furnaces in January and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand. With the continuous decline of manganese ore port inventory and the rising overseas mine quotes, the cost push makes manganese - silicon slightly stronger in the short - term [6]. - The unilateral trading strategy is that due to the expected improvement in supply and demand and cost push, it will be slightly stronger in the short - term; the arbitrage strategy is to wait and see; the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market** - SF main contract: closed at 5698, daily change +66, weekly change +74, trading volume 201430 (daily change - 28502), open interest 233205 (daily change - 8483) [3]. - SM main contract: closed at 5930, daily change +26, weekly change +56, trading volume 144766 (daily change - 27388), open interest 257314 (daily change +4207) [3]. - **Spot Market** - Silicon - iron: 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and 90 yuan/ton weekly; in Ningxia it was 5420 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Qinghai it was 5350 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Jiangsu it was 5750 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Tianjin it was 5850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and stable weekly [3]. - Manganese - silicon: 6517 manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Ningxia it was 5650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton daily and 80 yuan/ton weekly; in Guangxi it was 5800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and 70 yuan/ton weekly; in Jiangsu it was 5820 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton daily and 40 yuan/ton weekly; in Tianjin it was 5750 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton daily and 20 yuan/ton weekly [3]. - **Basis/Spread** - Silicon - iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 248, daily change - 16, weekly change +16; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 278, daily change - 66, weekly change - 24; Qinghai - main contract basis was - 348, daily change - 66, weekly change - 24; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 300, daily change - 50, weekly change - 90; SF - SM spread was - 232, daily change +40, weekly change +18 [3]. - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 230, daily change - 26, weekly change - 6; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 280, daily change - 6, weekly change +24; Guangxi - main contract basis was - 130, daily change +24, weekly change +14; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 100, daily change +50, weekly change +20 [3]. - **Raw Materials** - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was 42 yuan/ton - degree, stable daily and up 0.3 yuan/ton - degree weekly; South African semi - carbonate was 36 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree daily and 0.8 yuan/ton - degree weekly; Gabonese lump was 43 yuan/ton - degree, stable daily and up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree weekly [3]. - Blue charcoal small pieces: in Shaanxi it was 770 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Ningxia it was 840 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Inner Mongolia it was 750 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Slightly stronger in the short - term due to the expected marginal improvement of supply - demand and cost push [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. - **Important Information** - South32's quotation for South African semi - carbonate lump in February 2026 shipments to China was 4.4 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.25), and Australian lump was 5.1 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.25) [8]. - Jupiter's announced loading price of manganese ore to China in February 2026: Mn36.5% South African semi - carbonate lump was 4.32 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.17) [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures including the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, monthly spreads of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, basis of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, spot prices of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, ferroalloy electricity prices, production costs and profits of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon [9][11][13] etc.