Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market trends, fundamental factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each market segment. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market trends: Accelerated upward movement on Monday, with all major contracts rising. The market sentiment was high, and the trading volume reached a record high [20][21]. - Trading strategies: Suggested to go long on IC/IM on dips, conduct IM/IC 2606 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads for options [22]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market trends: Rebounded as expected on Monday, but the upward space may be limited. The market sentiment has improved in the short - term, but there are still unfavorable factors [23][24]. - Trading strategies: Suggested to take partial profits on previous long positions on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Market trends: Supply pressure is evident, and the market is likely to decline. The USDA reports are bearish [26][27]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a bearish approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short strangle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - Market trends: International sugar prices fluctuated and closed lower, while domestic sugar prices are in a range - bound pattern. Cost provides some support, but there is also sales pressure [29][30][31]. - Trading strategies: Expect international sugar prices to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term. For domestic sugar, consider low - buying and high - selling within the range, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell put options [31][32]. Oilseeds and Oils - Market trends: The USDA report is bearish. The market is affected by macro - sentiment, geopolitics, and bio - diesel factors, showing a volatile pattern [33][34]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term volatility to increase, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [35]. Corn/Corn Starch - Market trends: Wheat and corn auctions continue, and the spot market is strong. The US corn report is bearish, and the domestic market has short - term stability but long - term pressure [36][38]. - Trading strategies: Consider a long - term bullish approach for CBOT March corn after it stabilizes, try short - selling for March corn, widen the spread between May corn and starch on dips, and stay on the sidelines for options [39]. Live Hogs - Market trends: Supply pressure is increasing, and the spot price is falling. The overall inventory is high [40][42]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a short - selling approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short strangle strategy for options [42]. Peanuts - Market trends: Spot prices are stable, and the market is bottom - oscillating. Import volume has decreased, and the cost of warehouse receipts is high [43][44]. - Trading strategies: Go long on May peanuts on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell PK603 - C - 8200 options [44][45]. Eggs - Market trends: Demand has improved, and egg prices are stable with a slight increase. The short - term supply pressure has eased [46][47]. - Trading strategies: Expect the February contract to oscillate in the short - term, consider going long on the May contract on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - Market trends: Cold - storage inventory is low, and apple prices are firm. The cost of warehouse receipts is high, and the demand is expected to be good [50][51]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions in the May contract, go short on the October contract on rallies, conduct long May and short October arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market trends: Sales progress is fast, and cotton prices are oscillating. The USDA data shows a positive supply - demand situation, and the market has bullish factors [54][55]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term range - bound movement for US cotton, stay on the sidelines for Zhengzhou cotton, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [55]. Black Metals Steel - Market trends: Steel inventory is accumulating, and prices are oscillating. The black sector was weak at night, and the demand is affected by seasonality [57]. - Trading strategies: Expect a weak - oscillating trend, short the hot - rolled coal ratio on rallies, hold short positions on the hot - rolled rebar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market trends: Prices are fluctuating significantly, and the market is affected by sentiment and expectations. The fundamentals have not changed significantly [59][60]. - Trading strategies: Take partial profits on long positions gradually, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [61]. Iron Ore - Market trends: Market expectations are volatile, and ore prices are bearish at high levels. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [62][63]. - Trading strategies: Go short on iron ore at high levels with a light position, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [63]. Ferroalloys - Market trends: Driven by cost, prices are oscillating strongly. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have different characteristics [64][65]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term upward oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [65]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Market trends: Geopolitics and policy games are intertwined, and prices are highly volatile at high levels. The market is affected by multiple factors [67][68]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions in Shanghai gold near the previous high at the end of December and Shanghai silver near the previous high on January 7th, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [70][71]. Platinum and Palladium - Market trends: The precious - metal market continues, and prices are at high levels. The fundamentals of platinum are better than those of palladium [72][73]. - Trading strategies: Go long on platinum on dips, be cautious when going long on palladium before the "232 investigation" result is announced, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [73][74]. Copper - Market trends: Short - term fluctuations are increasing, but the upward trend remains. The market is affected by supply - demand and financial factors [75][76]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions entered at 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [78]. Alumina - Market trends: Commodity sentiment and fundamentals are in conflict, and price fluctuations are increasing. The supply is abundant [79]. - Trading strategies: Expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market trends: The market is strong. Geopolitics and fundamentals affect the price, and the global supply - demand is supportive [80][81]. - Trading strategies: Expect a strong - oscillating trend, beware of price fluctuations caused by capital outflows, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [81]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market trends: The market is oscillating at a high level. Geopolitics and fundamentals affect the price, and the cost provides support [82]. - Trading strategies: Expect a strong - oscillating trend, beware of price fluctuations caused by capital outflows, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [82]. Zinc - Market trends: Pay attention to the impact of capital. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak [84][85]. - Trading strategies: Go short on zinc at high levels with a light position, beware of upward price movement driven by long - side capital, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85]. Lead - Market trends: Hold long positions and raise the stop - loss level. The supply is limited, and the demand has resilience [88][89]. - Trading strategies: Hold profitable long positions and raise the stop - loss level, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options appropriately [90]. Nickel - Market trends: The financial attribute is strengthening, and a low - buying approach is recommended. The market is affected by geopolitics and inflation expectations [93]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a low - buying approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [94]. Stainless Steel - Market trends: The price follows nickel. The inventory is decreasing, but the capital inflow is limited [95][96]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a low - buying approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [96]. Industrial Silicon - Market trends: Short - term strength, medium - term short - selling on rallies. The demand is weakening, and the supply is slightly in surplus [97]. - Trading strategies: Go short on industrial silicon on rallies in the medium - term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [97]. Polysilicon - Market trends: Export tax - rebate cancellation and factory production cuts lead to short - term stabilization. The market is affected by policies and production cuts [98][99]. - Trading strategies: Be cautious when participating in futures trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. Lithium Carbonate - Market trends: Optimistic sentiment drives the price up. The demand is better than expected, and the supply is tight [100]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions at low levels, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use protective strategies for options [102]. Tin - Market trends: Beware of selling pressure caused by a change in macro - sentiment, and the supply shortage has not reversed. The market is affected by supply - demand and macro - factors [102][103]. - Trading strategies: Be cautious of short - term volatility, stay on the sidelines for options [104]. Shipping Container Shipping - Market trends: The Maersk Denver passed through the Red Sea, and Trump imposed secondary tariffs on Iran. The spot freight rate has reached a high point, and the demand is at a high level [105]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, go long on the June - October calendar spread on dips [106]. Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - Market trends: Geopolitics drives the price up. The market is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors [107][108]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range fluctuations, pay attention to the Iranian situation, go long on the domestic gasoline - diesel spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [108]. Asphalt - Market trends: Venezuelan oil is expected to be compliant, and there is a game in cost changes. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season [110][112]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range fluctuations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [112]. Fuel Oil - Market trends: Geopolitics is bullish, but the fundamentals are weak. The market is affected by geopolitics and supply - demand [113][117]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term upward oscillation, beware of geopolitical risks, hold the FU59 calendar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [118]. Natural Gas - Market trends: TTF/JKM is oscillating at a low level, and HH is bottom - seeking. The market is affected by weather and supply - demand [119][120]. - Trading strategies: Hold short positions in TTF and JKM, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on TTF or JKM [121]. LPG - Market trends: Strong current situation but weak expectations. The market is affected by supply - demand and import costs [122][124]. - Trading strategies: Pay attention to the Iranian situation, be bearish on long - term far - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [124]. PX&PTA - Market trends: Downstream polyester production cuts are increasing, and geopolitical disturbances strengthen cost support. The market is affected by supply - demand and geopolitics [125][126]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, conduct calendar spread arbitrage for PX&PTA March and May contracts, and stay on the sidelines for options [127]. BZ&EB - Market trends: Pure benzene is expected to decrease in supply, and styrene is boosted by exports. The market is affected by supply - demand and exports [128]. - Trading strategies: Look for short - selling opportunities for pure benzene at high levels, short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [129]. Ethylene Glycol - Market trends: Downstream polyester production cuts are increasing, and the price upside is limited. The market is affected by supply - demand [130][131]. - Trading strategies: Expect a weak - oscillating trend [131]. Short - Fiber - Market trends: The purchasing sentiment is cautious, and the processing margin is under pressure. The market is affected by supply - demand and production cuts [132][133]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [135][136]. Bottle Chips - Market trends: Some maintenance plans are announced. The market is affected by supply - demand and maintenance [136][137]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [138]. Propylene - Market trends: Downstream factories are actively purchasing. The market is affected by supply - demand and cost [138][139][140]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [140]. Plastic PP - Market trends: The market is strong. The market is affected by supply - demand and policies [141]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions in the L 2605 contract, set a stop - loss at 6600 points, stay on the sidelines for the PP 2605 contract, pay attention to the support at 6450 points, sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract, and set a stop - loss at 51.0 points [143]. Caustic Soda - Market trends: Commodity sentiment has improved. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [144]. - Trading strategies: Expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [145][146]. PVC - Market trends: The market is oscillating. The market is affected by supply - demand and export policies [147]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines [148]. Soda Ash - Market trends: Wide - range oscillation this week. The market is affected by supply - demand and cost [149][151]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on far - month contracts at high levels [151]. Glass - Market trends: Wide - range oscillation. The market is affected by supply - demand and cost [153][155]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range oscillation this week, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [155]. Methanol - Market trends: Wide - range oscillation. The market is affected by supply - demand, international production, and geopolitics [156]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines, pay attention to the 5 - 9 calendar spread, and sell put options on pull - backs [157]. Urea - Market trends: High - level oscillation. The market is affected by supply - demand, international bidding, and policies [159]. - Trading strategies: Go short on urea with a light position, and hedging enterprises can look for hedging opportunities [160]. Pulp - Market trends: The pulp price is oscillating widely at a high level. The market is affected by supply - demand [161][163]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and arbitrage, sell the OP2602 - C - 4300 option [164]. Logs - Market trends: The spot price has rebounded slightly. Pay attention to the delivery in Chongqing and Yantai. The market is affected by supply - demand [165][168]. - Trading strategies: Aggressive investors can go long with a small position, pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse calendar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [168]. Offset Printing Paper - Market trends: High inventory restricts the implementation of price - increase letters for cultural paper. The market is affected by supply - demand [169][170]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and arbitrage, sell the OP2602 - C - 4300 option [170]. Natural Rubber - Market trends: The bonded - area inventory is accumulating, but the

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - "粕类日报" dated January 12, 2026 [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core Viewpoints - The supply of meal products still faces pressure, and prices are oscillating. The international soybean market remains relatively loose in supply, with price pressure expected. Domestic spot supply of soybean meal is also relatively loose, while rapeseed meal is expected to move in a sideways pattern [1][3][4][6] 4. Market Conditions Summary 4.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Soybean Meal Futures**: The closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 3124, 2790, and 2886 respectively, with changes of 69, 4, and 10. Spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao increased by 10, while in Nantong it decreased by 2 [3] - **Rapeseed Meal Futures**: The closing prices of contracts 05 and 09 were 2330 and 2394 respectively, with changes of -8 and -4. Spot basis in Guangdong and Guangxi decreased by 2 [3] - **Monthly Spreads**: For soybean meal, the 15 - spread increased by 65, the 59 - spread decreased by 6, and the 91 - spread decreased by 59. For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread increased by 8, the 59 - spread decreased by 4, and the 91 - spread decreased by 4 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: The soybean - rapeseed 01 spread increased, and the oil - meal ratio 01 decreased. The spot spread of soybean meal minus rapeseed meal increased by 14, and the spread of rapeseed meal minus sunflower meal decreased by 10 [3] 4.2 Market Trends - The US soybean market showed a slight increase after the release of the monthly supply - demand report. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets oscillated slightly. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to rise but is expected to narrow [3] 5. Fundamental Analysis 5.1 International Market - The overall supply - demand of the US soybean market is loose, with downward price pressure. South American supply factors are increasing. Brazil's new - crop sowing progress is accelerating but remains at a low level compared to the same period in history. Brazilian new - crop is expected to be a bumper harvest, with exports likely to increase, but it depends on actual yields. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and its recent exports and crushing have increased [4] 5.2 Domestic Market - The domestic spot market of soybean meal has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The oil mill operating rate is increasing, supply is sufficient, and inventory is at a high level. As of January 9, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.7658 million tons, the operating rate was 48.58%, soybean inventory was 7.1312 million tons (a 0.4% increase from last week and a 17.96% increase year - on - year), and soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons (a 10.78% decrease from last week and a 72.68% increase year - on - year). The demand for rapeseed meal is gradually weakening, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, and the supply pressure remains [5] 6. Logic Analysis - The US soybean market is oscillating. Brazil's short - term weather has little impact on crop growth, and the pressure of a bumper harvest may continue. The international soybean market supply is loose, and prices are under pressure. Domestic soybean arrivals are expected to decrease, but supply is uncertain. In the long - term, supply is still relatively loose, and prices face pressure. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to narrow. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to face pressure [6] 7. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Adopt a short - selling strategy - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see - **Options**: Use the strategy of selling wide straddles [7] 8. Soybean Pressing Profit - Pressing profits from Brazilian soybeans vary by shipping date. For February, the spot pressing profit increased by 47.92 compared to yesterday. For March, it increased by 39.38. For April, it increased by 36.55. For May, it increased by 29.26. For June, it increased by 37.85. For July, it increased by 43.59 [8]

研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 【生猪日报】出栏略有增加 现货整体反弹 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2026/1/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 12.88 | 12.91 | -0.03 | 山西 （-100） | 12.65 | 12.58 | 0.07 | | 湖北（0） | 12.70 | 12.70 | 0.00 | 辽宁 （-300） | 12.42 | 12.21 | 0.21 | | 安徽（200） | 13.11 | 13.11 | 0.00 | 吉林（-300） | 12.28 | 12.05 | 0.23 | | 湖南（100） | 12.73 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price in the futures market continued to rise today, while the spot steel trading volume was generally average. The basis slightly shrunk, with a small amount of spot-futures purchases and mainly low-price transactions. - Last week, the production of the five major steel products increased, and the molten iron output continued to rise due to the recovery of profit levels. The total steel inventory started to accumulate, but the hot-rolled coil inventory continued to decline, with the inventory shifting from the factory warehouse to the social warehouse, and the overall rebar inventory accumulated. - Affected by the season, the apparent demand for building materials further weakened, and the funds available to downstream construction sites decreased. The demand for hot-rolled coils slightly declined, but there was a replenishment demand in the manufacturing industry before the Spring Festival. The steel export performance in January remained strong. - On the raw material side, the coal mine inventory decreased. Driven by market news, the commodity market recently experienced a sharp rise, which led to an increase in steel prices. The structural shortage of PB fines has not been resolved, and the first quarter is also the traditional off-season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills have a rigid demand for replenishment, providing cost support. - Recently, the continuous resumption of molten iron production has also limited the further rise of steel prices. In the short term, the steel price will maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend, but the upside space is limited. [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: The prices of RB05, RB10, and RB01 contracts increased by 21 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, and 44 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads between different contracts and the contract basis also changed. The rebar profit on the futures market showed different trends for different contracts. [2] - **Rebar Spot**: The prices of rebar in different regions changed slightly, with the lowest delivery price at 3200 yuan/ton. The regional price differences and spot profits also showed different changes. [2] - **Hot-rolled Coil Futures**: The prices of HC05, HC10, and HC01 contracts increased by 17 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton, and 45 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads between different contracts and the contract basis also changed. The hot-rolled coil profit on the futures market showed different trends for different contracts. [2] - **Hot-rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of hot-rolled coils in different regions changed slightly, with the lowest delivery price at 3280 yuan/ton. The regional price differences and spot profits also showed different changes. [2] Market Analysis - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3280 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye rebar was 3170 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil was 3290 yuan (+20), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil was 3190 yuan (-). [5] - **Trading Strategy** - **Single-sided Trading**: The steel price will maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend, but the upside space is limited. [7] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil/coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil/rebar spread. [8] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see. [9] - **Important Information** - From January 12th, Langfang City issued an orange warning for heavy pollution weather and launched a Level II emergency response. [10] - In December 2025, 472 projects started across the country, with a total investment of approximately 534.092 billion yuan. The total investment in 2025 was approximately 27.52 trillion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of start-up investment were Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Anhui, with total investments of 121.238 billion yuan, 59.41 billion yuan, and 49.103 billion yuan respectively. [11] Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, basis, spreads, and profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils in different contracts and regions from 2022 to 2026. [15][16][17]

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2026 年 01 月 12 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | 2026/1/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2605收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | 豆油 | 7994 | 0 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8514 | | | | 8564 | 8384 | 570 | | 0 | 520 0 | 390 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8724 | 42 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8694 | | | | 8684 | 8854 | -30 | | 0 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 12th, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5698, up 1.17% with a decrease of 8483 in positions. The manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5930, up 0.44% with an increase of 4207 in positions [6]. - For silicon - iron, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend on the 12th, rising 50 yuan/ton in some regions. The short - term supply start - up rate rebounded slightly, but due to the differential electricity price in Shaanxi, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future. The demand side shows that although iron - making is in the resumption cycle, the accumulation of steel inventory may restrict the resumption space of blast furnaces. With stable electricity prices in the main production areas, and considering the warming of the commodity market sentiment and the supply contraction expectation, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [6]. - For manganese - silicon, the manganese ore spot was stable with a slight upward trend on the 12th, and the manganese - silicon spot rose by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The start - up rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and new production capacity was put into operation at the end of the year, keeping the supply stable. The demand side is supported by the expected resumption of blast furnaces in January and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand. With the continuous decline of manganese ore port inventory and the rising overseas mine quotes, the cost push makes manganese - silicon slightly stronger in the short - term [6]. - The unilateral trading strategy is that due to the expected improvement in supply and demand and cost push, it will be slightly stronger in the short - term; the arbitrage strategy is to wait and see; the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market** - SF main contract: closed at 5698, daily change +66, weekly change +74, trading volume 201430 (daily change - 28502), open interest 233205 (daily change - 8483) [3]. - SM main contract: closed at 5930, daily change +26, weekly change +56, trading volume 144766 (daily change - 27388), open interest 257314 (daily change +4207) [3]. - **Spot Market** - Silicon - iron: 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and 90 yuan/ton weekly; in Ningxia it was 5420 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Qinghai it was 5350 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Jiangsu it was 5750 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Tianjin it was 5850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and stable weekly [3]. - Manganese - silicon: 6517 manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Ningxia it was 5650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton daily and 80 yuan/ton weekly; in Guangxi it was 5800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and 70 yuan/ton weekly; in Jiangsu it was 5820 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton daily and 40 yuan/ton weekly; in Tianjin it was 5750 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton daily and 20 yuan/ton weekly [3]. - **Basis/Spread** - Silicon - iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 248, daily change - 16, weekly change +16; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 278, daily change - 66, weekly change - 24; Qinghai - main contract basis was - 348, daily change - 66, weekly change - 24; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 300, daily change - 50, weekly change - 90; SF - SM spread was - 232, daily change +40, weekly change +18 [3]. - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 230, daily change - 26, weekly change - 6; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 280, daily change - 6, weekly change +24; Guangxi - main contract basis was - 130, daily change +24, weekly change +14; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 100, daily change +50, weekly change +20 [3]. - **Raw Materials** - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was 42 yuan/ton - degree, stable daily and up 0.3 yuan/ton - degree weekly; South African semi - carbonate was 36 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree daily and 0.8 yuan/ton - degree weekly; Gabonese lump was 43 yuan/ton - degree, stable daily and up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree weekly [3]. - Blue charcoal small pieces: in Shaanxi it was 770 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Ningxia it was 840 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Inner Mongolia it was 750 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Slightly stronger in the short - term due to the expected marginal improvement of supply - demand and cost push [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. - **Important Information** - South32's quotation for South African semi - carbonate lump in February 2026 shipments to China was 4.4 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.25), and Australian lump was 5.1 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.25) [8]. - Jupiter's announced loading price of manganese ore to China in February 2026: Mn36.5% South African semi - carbonate lump was 4.32 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.17) [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures including the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, monthly spreads of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, basis of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, spot prices of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, ferroalloy electricity prices, production costs and profits of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon [9][11][13] etc.

Group 1: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index is 109.01, up 0.31 from the previous trading day [2] - Luochuan Semi - Commodity Paper - bagged 70 is 4.20 yuan, unchanged [2] - Qixia First and Second - grade Paper - bagged 80 is 4.10 yuan, unchanged [2] - Yiyuan Paper - bagged 70 is 2.50 yuan, unchanged [2] - Penglai First and Second - grade Paper - bagged 80 is 4.25 yuan, unchanged [2] - The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.80 yuan, down 0.07 [2] Futures Prices - AP01 has a value of 0, and the change is -9999 [2] - AP05 is 9630, and the change is not clearly presented [2] - AP10 is 8481, up 9 from the previous trading day [2] Price Differentials - Qixia First and Second - grade 80 - AP01 is 8200, up 9999 [2] - Qixia First and Second - grade 80 - AP05 is -1430, up 59 [2] - Qixia First and Second - grade 80 - AP10 is -281.0, down 9 [2] Group 2: Market News and Views Transaction Logic - This season's apple warehouse receipts have high costs due to low high - quality fruit rates, supporting the apple futures price [5] - The latest cold - storage apple outbound volume in the week of January 2nd is 10.47 million tons, and although the year - on - year volume decreased, the peak sales season is postponed due to the later Spring Festival [5] - As of January 2nd, the national cold - storage inventory is 7.3356 billion tons, at a low level only higher than the 2018/19 season [5] - The 5 - month contract has weakened recently due to the expected weak demand, but it may rise if the demand remains normal [5] Transaction Strategy - For the single - side strategy, hold the long position in the May contract and short the October contract on rallies [8] - For the arbitrage strategy, go long on the May contract and short the October contract [8] - For the options strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Other Market Data - As of January 7, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas is 7.209 billion tons, a decrease of 126,000 tons from last week, with a slightly faster de - stocking speed [7] - In November 2025, the fresh apple import volume is 0.25 million tons, a 18.19% month - on - month decrease and a 48.76% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import volume from January to November 2025 is 1.137 billion tons, a 19.71% year - on - year increase [7] - In November 2025, the fresh apple export volume is about 1.216 billion tons, a 51.28% month - on - month increase and a 12.42% year - on - year increase [7] - The apple prices in the producing areas are stable, with the main market trend being flat. The cold - storage packaging volume in the producing areas has increased, but the merchants' stocking enthusiasm is average [7] - The mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity apples above 70 in Luochuan cold storage is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty, and the market is stable during the Spring Festival stocking period [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product research report focusing on eggs, dated January 12, 2026, by researcher Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3300, up 122 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3578, down 8; JD09 closed at 3962, down 17 [2] - The 01 - 05 spread was -278, up 130; 05 - 09 spread was -384, up 9; 09 - 01 spread was 662, down 139 [2] - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.43, up 0.03; 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.06, up 0.02; 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.28, unchanged; 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.72, down 0.01; 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.37, down 0.01 [2] Spot Market - The average price in the main production areas was 3.32 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.53 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin [2][4] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.27 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin [2][7] Profit Calculation - The profit per chicken was 13.35 yuan, up 4.73 yuan from the previous day [2] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.27 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin; the average price of chicken chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - laying chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged [2] - The average price of corn was 2354 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.61 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan [2] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In December, the national laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, lower than expected. The monthly output of chicken chicks in sample enterprises was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [5] - From December 18th, the weekly slaughter volume of culled hens in the main production areas was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of culled hens was 486 days, unchanged from the previous week [5] - As of December 18th, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas was 7023 tons, with little change from the previous week, at a low level over the years [5] - As of December 18th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On December 12th, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6] - As of December 18th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1 day, a slight decrease from the previous week; the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, a slight increase from the previous week [6] Group 4: Trading Logic - Recently, the number of culled chickens has increased, and the previous supply pressure has been relieved. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. However, the demand side has been average recently. The near - month contracts are expected to be mainly volatile and weak, and the far - month May contract can be considered for long - building on dips as the supply pressure eases [8] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The short - term February contract is expected to be range - bound, and the far - month May contract can be considered for long - building on dips [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9]

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: Demand Improves Slightly, Egg Prices Edge Up [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The egg market is driven by sentiment, with prices rising due to pre - Spring Festival stocking, but there is pressure to digest the rapid short - term increase. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the price trend in 2026 will be affected by factors such as supply adjustment and seasonal demand [5][17] Summary by Section First Part: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.2 yuan/jin, up 0.3 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.4 yuan/jin, also up 0.3 yuan/jin. The market was boosted by sentiment, but there was pressure to digest the rapid price increase. The price of old hens in the production areas remained stable, with a weekly average of around 4.10 yuan/jin [5] 2. Supply Analysis - From January 8th, the weekly egg chicken culling volume in the main production areas was 18.96 million, a 4.3% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 484 days, the same as the previous week. In December, the national laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a 5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The monthly egg chicken chick output of sample enterprises was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of January 9th, the corn price was around 2351 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal price was 3190 yuan/ton. The comprehensive feed cost was about 2603 yuan/ton, and the cost per jin of eggs remained stable. As of January 8th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.13 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On January 18th, the expected profit of egg chicken farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - As of January 8th, the weekly egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7377 tons, with little change from the previous week and at a low level over the years. As of December 18th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing from the previous week. On December 17th, the vegetable price index and pork price both showed a slight recovery [16] 5. Trading Strategies - In the cash market, it is expected that the supply pressure will be greatly relieved in the first half of 2026, and the egg price will gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase will be limited. In the second half of the year, the supply is uncertain, and the price is likely to rise during the peak consumption season. In the futures market, it is recommended to consider building long positions at low prices for the May contract in the first - half peak season and short - term long positions with high - level closing for the August and September contracts. For the short - term February contract, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and long positions can be considered for the distant - month contracts. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [17] Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Egg Chicken Farming Situation - Not provided with specific summarized data 2. Spread and Basis - The document shows the basis and spread data of different contract months (January, May, September) from 2018 - 2025, but no specific summarized data is provided [24][25][28]

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡，最终报收 1783（+4/+0.22%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价企稳，收单乏力，河南出厂报 1680-1710 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1680-1710 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1700-1720 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1630-1650 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1550-1620 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】1 月 12 日，尿素行业日产 20.20 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.18 万吨；较去 年同期增加 2.00 万吨；今日开工率 85.81%，较去年同期 81.26%回升 4.55%。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价整体平稳，市场情绪低迷，成交乏力，厂家收单零星，个低价区成 交尚可。山东地区主流出厂报价上涨，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率提升，原 料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商恐 高开始出货，新单成交乏力，省内尿素厂收单一般，但待发充裕，预计出厂报价坚挺为 主；河南地区市场情 ...