1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure in the pig market has improved, and pig prices have generally increased. However, in the short - term, there is still some pressure in the pig market, and the upside space is relatively limited. The futures price of pigs shows a certain oscillatory performance, and in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - side pressure remains the main influencing factor, and the futures are expected to operate in a low - level oscillation [2][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - Today, the spot prices of pigs in various regions of the country showed an upward trend. The average price was 10.74 yuan, a decrease of 0.13 yuan compared with yesterday. Among them, the prices in some regions such as Henan, Hubei, and Anhui increased, while the prices in Sichuan, Fujian, and Guizhou decreased [4]. 3.2 Futures Price - The futures prices of pigs showed an oscillatory performance. Contracts such as LH01, LH07, LH09, and LH11 increased, while contracts such as LH03 and LH05 decreased [4]. 3.3 Sow/Piglet Price - The price of piglets this week was 359 yuan, a decrease of 6 yuan compared with last week. The price of sows remained unchanged at 1557 yuan [4]. 3.4 Spot Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising was - 98.32 yuan, a decrease of 60.23 yuan compared with yesterday. The spot breeding profit of purchasing piglets was 53.10 yuan, a decrease of 38.32 yuan compared with yesterday [4]. 3.5 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume today was 121,757 heads, an increase of 6,136 heads compared with yesterday [4]. 3.6 Size Pig Price Difference - The price difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs decreased by 0.01 yuan, the price difference between medium - large pigs and standard pigs increased by 0.02 yuan, the price difference between large pigs and medium - large pigs decreased by 0.02 yuan, and the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs remained unchanged [4]. 3.7 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Mainly adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [7]

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 02 月 26 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 第一部分 市场信息 | 期货盘面 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 增减幅 | 空盘量 | 增减量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CF01合约 | 15140 | -70 | 472 | -452 | 5,483 | 84 | | CF05合约 | 14610 | -70 | 246,422 | -13325 | 700,704 | -270 | | CF09合约 | 14735 | -70 | 55,110 | -3624 | 169,643 | 4673 | | CY01合约 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | CY05合约 | 20360 | -45 | 6709 | -536 | 11525 | 360 | | CY09合约 | 20600 | -25 | 1 | -4 | 32 | 1 | | | | | 现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the relatively good profit situation in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has declined, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption season will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall capacity reduction. Therefore, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of JD01, JD05, and JD09 are 3615, 3413, and 3800 respectively, down 87, 30, and 21 from the previous trading day. [2] - **Cross - Month Spreads**: The spreads of 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 are 202, - 387, and 185 respectively, with changes of - 57, - 9, and 66 compared to the previous trading day. [2] - **Price Ratios**: The ratios of 01 egg/maize, 05 egg/maize, and 09 egg/maize are 1.56, 1.46, and 1.61 respectively, down 0.04, 0.01, and 0.01 from the previous trading day; the ratios of 01 egg/soybean meal, 05 egg/soybean meal, and 09 egg/soybean meal are 1.20, 1.20, and 1.29 respectively, down 0.04, 0.01, and 0.01 from the previous trading day. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas is 2.91 yuan/jin, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.02 yuan/jin, both remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The prices in various regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, Shandong, and Henan are generally stable, with the egg price continuing to fluctuate and consolidate, and the sales volume being average. [2][4] - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 4.43 yuan/jin, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The prices in various regions such as Handan, Shijiazhuang, and Jiaozuo are also stable. [2] 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Cost and Price Changes**: The average price of culled chickens is 4.43 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged; the average price of chicken seedlings is 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 from the previous day; the price of egg - laying hen vaccines is 3 yuan, remaining stable; the average price of maize is 2381 yuan, up 1 from the previous day; the average price of soybean meal is 3188 yuan, remaining unchanged; the price of egg - laying hen compound feed is 2.62 yuan, remaining unchanged. [2] - **Profit Changes**: The profit per chicken is - 3.18 yuan, down 0.08 from the previous day. [2] 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: In January, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected. The monthly output of chicken seedlings in the sampled enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in January was about 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9%, with little year - on - year change. As of the week of February 12, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 6390 tons, a decrease of 12% from the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. [4][5] - **Culling Situation**: As of the week of February 12, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 13.17 million, a decrease of 20% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of February 6 was 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week. [5] - **Profit and Inventory**: As of February 12, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.12 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/jin from the previous week; on February 12, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was - 13.12 yuan/chicken, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.24 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.26 days, remaining unchanged from the previous week. [5] 3.5 Trading Logic - The relatively good profit situation in the early stage has led to a decline in the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. After the Spring Festival, the egg consumption enters the off - season. Although the inventory has improved, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall capacity reduction. Therefore, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies. [6] 3.6 Trading Strategy - **Single - Side Trading**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies. [7] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. [7] - **Options Trading**: It is recommended to wait and see. [7]

花生日报 2026 年 2 月 26 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/2/26 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7896 | -30 | -0.38% | 20,289 | 11.25% | 33,862 | -8.32% | | PK610 | 8252 | -6 | -0.07% | 543 | -13.12% | 3,814 | 6.89% | | PK601 | 8258 | -10 | -0.12% | 23 | -17.86% | 66 | 34.69% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7600 | 8000 | 8000 | 3250 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The global corn supply pressure is weakening, and the US corn is still oscillating at the bottom. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the price of Brazilian imports in July is 2,206 yuan. The spot price of corn in the Northeast is relatively stable, while that in North China is weakening. The 05 corn contract is expected to have limited short - term upside, and there may be a slight decline in March [4][7]. - The supply of corn in Shandong is relatively tight, the price of corn starch in Shandong is around 2,820 yuan, and the spot price in the Northeast is stable. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 05 starch contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. - The US corn supply pressure is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. The corn spot price in North China has risen, and that in the Northeast is stable. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. There will still be slight selling pressure in the Northeast in March, and the 05 corn contract will decline [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data - **Futures**: For corn futures contracts (C2601, C2605, C2509), the closing prices are 2310, 2342, and 2365 respectively, with price increases of 10, 10, and 11, and price increase rates of 0.43%, 0.43%, and 0.47%. For corn starch futures contracts (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices are 2653, 2673, and 2699 respectively, with price increases of 10, 10, and 12, and price increase rates of 0.38%, 0.37%, and 0.44% [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn vary in different regions, with prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajiaji, etc. being 2150, 2190 yuan. The spot prices of starch in different regions such as Longfeng and COFCO are 2750, 2700 yuan. The basis of corn and starch also varies in different regions [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of corn and starch in different periods and cross - varieties are presented, for example, the C01 - C05 spread is - 32, and the CS09 - C09 spread is 334 [2]. 2. Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn is oscillating at the bottom. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The spot price in the Northeast is relatively stable, while that in North China is weakening. The price difference between wheat and corn has decreased, and the cost - effectiveness of corn has weakened. The domestic breeding demand will decline in March. The 05 corn contract is expected to have limited short - term upside, and there may be a slight decline in March [4][7]. - **Starch**: The supply of corn in Shandong is relatively tight, the price of corn starch in Shandong is around 2,820 yuan, and the spot price in the Northeast is stable. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 05 starch contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. 3. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 05 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Short the 05 corn contract lightly when the price is high [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Expand the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts when the price is low [11]. 4. Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put option strategy with rolling operations [12]. 5. Relevant Attachments - The attachments include figures such as the North Port corn closing price, the basis of the corn 05 contract, the corn 5 - 9 spread, the corn starch 5 - 9 spread, the basis of the corn starch 05 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 05 contract [16][18][20][22][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Wednesday saw continued rises in stock index futures, with the overall market showing an upward trend driven by price - rising themes. The bond market was affected by real - estate policies and showed a complex short - term trend but remained optimistic in the medium - term. In the agricultural products market, factors such as weather and production forecasts influenced prices. The black metal market was affected by policies and demand recovery, with steel prices expected to oscillate. The non - ferrous metal market was influenced by macro and geopolitical factors, with prices showing different trends. The shipping and carbon emission markets were affected by geopolitical and policy factors. The energy and chemical market was affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical situations, with prices fluctuating [20][24][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the stock index continued to rise, with small - cap indexes performing better. Price - rising themes supported the market, and trading volume steadily increased. The trading strategies included going long on dips, conducting IM/IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads [20][21][23]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The relaxation of real - estate policies in Shanghai was a negative factor for the bond market. In the short - term, the bond market may fluctuate, but in the medium - term, the outlook is relatively optimistic. The trading strategies included a neutral - to - bullish approach for single - side trading and waiting and seeing for arbitrage [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal indexes rose. Weather disturbances in the producing areas affected crop yields, and the domestic soybean market was volatile. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and using a short strangle strategy for options [27][28]. - **Sugar**: ICE and London sugar prices were volatile. Brazil's sugar exports decreased, and India's sugar production increase was adjusted downward. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar was expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. The trading strategies included waiting for the international sugar price to break through the previous high, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting put options in the short - term [30][33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly. Malaysia's palm oil exports and production decreased in February. The domestic oil inventory was at a moderately high level, and the market was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included short - term oscillation, considering reverse arbitrage for p59 and y59, and waiting and seeing for options [36][37][38]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: CBOT corn prices rose. The domestic corn market had stable prices in the northeast and falling prices in the north - central region. The inventory situation was complex, and the futures price was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included a long - on - dip approach for the outer - market 05 corn, short - selling the 05 corn on rallies, and widening the 05 corn - starch spread [40][41][42]. - **Hogs**: Hog prices were stable overall, with supply pressure remaining. The trading strategies included lightly going long on the 05 contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and using a short strangle strategy for options [43][45]. - **Peanuts**: Peanut spot prices were stable, and the futures price oscillated narrowly. The trading strategies included lightly going long on the 05 contract on dips, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the pk605 - P - 7800 option [47][48][49]. - **Eggs**: Egg prices were stable to slightly falling after the holiday. The trading strategies included short - selling the June contract on rallies, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [50][51][52]. - **Apples**: Apple inventory decreased, and high - quality apple prices were firm. The 5 - month contract price was expected to be strong. The trading strategies included going long on dips for the 5 - month contract, long 5 short 10 for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [53][54][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The outer - market cotton price rose. The global cotton supply - demand situation was relatively tight, and the domestic cotton price was expected to rise. The trading strategies included going long on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [56][57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices oscillated at night. After the holiday, the steel inventory increased, and the demand recovery was uncertain. The trading strategies included oscillating trends, shorting the coil - coal ratio on rallies, and waiting and seeing for options [59][60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Australian coking coal prices were inverted, and port coke inventory decreased. After the holiday, coal mines resumed production. The trading strategies included going long on dips for coking coal, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [61][62][63]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices fell slightly at night. The supply was abundant, and the demand might decline. The trading strategies included a weakening trend for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [66][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost of ferroalloys was strongly supported. The trading strategies included holding previous long positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [68][69]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: London gold and silver prices rose. The dollar index fell, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield oscillated at a low level. The prices of gold and silver were expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options or using a bull call spread strategy [71][72][74]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum and palladium prices oscillated. Geopolitical and macro factors supported precious metals. The trading strategies included going long on platinum on dips, waiting and seeing for palladium, and long platinum short palladium for arbitrage [75][76]. - **Copper**: The copper price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. The macro environment was favorable for copper consumption, but inventory increases limited the upside. The trading strategies included a short - term strong - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options [79][80]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price was expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of northern capacity. The trading strategies included a short - term oscillating - to - strong trend [83][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum price was expected to oscillate strongly. NVIDIA's performance boosted the market, and the supply - demand relationship was supportive. The trading strategies included an oscillating - to - strong trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [87]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy price was expected to oscillate strongly following the aluminum price. The trading strategies included an oscillating - to - strong trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [88]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price was expected to be bought on dips after a correction. The macro and fundamental factors influenced the price. The trading strategies included buying on dips after a correction, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [91][92]. - **Lead**: The lead price was expected to oscillate within a range. The market was affected by inventory and demand. The trading strategies included going long on dips with light positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying deep out - of - the - money call options [93][94]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price was dominated by macro factors. Indonesian policies and demand were the focus. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [96][98]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price followed the nickel price. The cost was supportive. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage [99][100]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price was affected by the resumption of production of leading manufacturers. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing, with the option of short - term long positions [101][102]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market was bearish fundamentally. Attention should be paid to spot transactions. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing [104][105]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price was likely to rise due to supply disruptions. The trading strategies included holding long positions at low levels, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting out - of - the - money put options [107][110]. - **Tin**: The tin price was expected to be strong. NVIDIA's performance boosted demand, and supply factors needed attention. The trading strategies included a short - term strong - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for options [111][113]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate of container shipping decreased. The market was affected by the Iran situation and seasonal factors. The trading strategies included short - term oscillation and waiting and seeing [114][115]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The BDI index rose. The market was influenced by demand recovery and geopolitical factors. In the long - term, the supply and demand situation needed attention. The trading strategies included a positive short - term trend [116][117]. - **Carbon Emissions**: The domestic carbon market had sporadic transactions, and the EU carbon market was affected by policies and public opinion. The carbon price in China was expected to be supported in the short - term, and the EU carbon market was in a tight supply situation. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing [121][122]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ might slightly increase production in April. The oil price was expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included high - level oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and buying out - of - the - money call options [124][125]. - **Asphalt**: The demand for asphalt had not recovered, and the supply was expected to increase. The trading strategies included going long on the BU2606 contract on dips, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [126][127]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil price was affected by supply and geopolitical factors. The trading strategies included a strong - oscillation trend, going long on the FU2605 contract on dips, and waiting and seeing for options [129][131][132]. - **LPG**: The LPG outer - market was strong. The domestic market was expected to oscillate at a high level. The trading strategies included high - level oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [133][136]. - **Natural Gas**: The natural gas market was waiting for geopolitical guidance. The demand risk decreased, but the supply risk remained. The trading strategies included holding short positions for the US HH second - quarter contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [137][138][139]. - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices were expected to oscillate. The supply - demand situation was gradually improving. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [141][142]. - **BZ & EB**: The overseas supply of benzene and styrene was in a vacuum period. The domestic supply was stable. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, reverse arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [143][144][145]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol market had obvious inventory - building pressure. The supply - demand structure was improving, but the inventory was increasing. The trading strategies included range - oscillation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [146][149]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price was expected to oscillate. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, narrowing the processing fee on rallies for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [150][151]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply of bottle chips was expected to be tight. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [153][154]. - **Propylene**: Some propylene supply returned. The market was stable with a weakening trend. The trading strategies included oscillating consolidation, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [155][156]. - **Plastic PP**: The PPI of plastic products declined for consecutive months. The trading strategies included holding long positions for the L 2605 contract, short - selling the PP 2605 contract on a small scale, and waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [157][158]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price oscillated. The supply pressure was still there, and the demand was improving. The trading strategies included a weak - oscillation trend, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [160][161]. - **PVC**: The PVC price oscillated weakly. The supply was high, and the demand was low. The trading strategies included a weak - oscillation trend [163][164]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price oscillated strongly. The supply was high, and the demand was resilient. The trading strategies included going long on dips, shorting glass and going long on soda ash for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [166][169][170]. - **Glass**: The glass price oscillated strongly, but the fundamentals were weak. The trading strategies included short - selling on rallies, shorting glass and going long on soda ash for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [171][172]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price oscillated widely. The international and domestic supply - demand situations were complex. The trading strategies included a strong - oscillation trend [174]. - **Urea**: Urea factories were reluctant to sell. The supply was at a high level, and the demand was expected to increase. The trading strategies included going long on dips, paying attention to the 5 - 9 positive arbitrage, and shorting put options on corrections [176][177]. - **Pulp**: The high inventory of pulp restricted the rebound. The market was in a supply - surplus situation. The trading strategies included holding previous long positions, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the SP2605 - P - 5250 option [179][182][183]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The demand for offset printing paper was average. The market rebound was limited. The trading strategies included short - selling on rallies, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and shorting the OP2604 - C - 4200 option [184][185]. - **Logs**: The log market had weak supply and demand. The price was affected by supply and demand and cost. The trading strategies included waiting and seeing, with the option of lightly going long for aggressive investors, and paying attention to the 5 - 7 reverse arbitrage [185][186]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber**: The ANRPC had marginal production cuts. The prices of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The trading strategies included holding long positions for the RU 05 contract, going long on the NR 04 contract on opportunities, and holding the RU2605 - RU2609 spread [187][189]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory build - up of domestic automobiles slowed down. The butadiene rubber price fell. The trading strategies included holding short positions for the BR 04 contract, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [190][192].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Due to the good profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption enters the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3778, JD05 at 3429, and JD09 at 3819, with no change from the previous day. The 01 - 05 spread was 349, 05 - 09 was - 390, and 09 - 01 was 41, all unchanged [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn were 1.64, 1.46, and 1.61 respectively, with a decrease of 0.01 compared to the previous day. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to soybean meal were 1.26, 1.21, and 1.30 respectively, with a decrease of 0.02 compared to the previous day [2]. 2. Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The national mainstream price remained stable, with prices in most regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, and Shandong remaining unchanged [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4.43 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day. The prices in various regions such as Handan, Shijiazhuang, and Jiaozuo remained stable [2][5]. 3. Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of culled chickens was 4.43 yuan/jin, with no change; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, with no change. The average price of corn was 2380 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the average price of soybean meal was 3182 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 2.62 yuan, with no change [2]. - **Profit**: The profit per feather was - 3.05 yuan, an increase of 1.69 yuan compared to the previous day [2]. 4. Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: In January, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The monthly output of chicks from sample enterprises in January was 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9% and little change year - on - year. As of the week of February 12, the sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas was 6390 tons, a decrease of 12% from the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [4][5]. - **Culling Situation**: In the week of February 12, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 13.17 million, a decrease of 20% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of February 6 was 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory and Profit**: As of February 12, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.24 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week; the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.26 days, the same as the previous week. The weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.12 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/jin from the previous week; on February 12, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 13.12 yuan/feather, the same as the previous week [5]. 5. Trading Logic - The good profit performance in the early stage has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction [6]. 6. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "粕类日报 2026 年 2 月 25 日" [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Contact: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2989, 2831, and 2936 respectively, with price increases of 39, 50, and 46. The spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao shows a downward trend [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2293, 2312, and 2364 respectively, with price increases of 30, 22, and 22. The spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi has different changes [3]. Month - to - Month Spreads - For soybean meal, the 15 - spread is 158 (down 11 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is - 105 (up 4 from yesterday), and the 91 - spread is - 53 (up 7 from yesterday) [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread is - 19 (up 8 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is - 52 (unchanged from yesterday), and the 91 - spread is 71 (down 8 from yesterday) [3]. Cross - Variety Futures Spreads - The 05 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 519 (up from yesterday), the 09 spread is 572 (up from yesterday), and the 01 oil - meal ratio is 2.906 (down from yesterday) [3]. Spot Price Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 501 (down 10 from yesterday), the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal is 170 (down 40 from yesterday), and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal is 811 (up 10 from yesterday) [3] Group 3: Market Review - The US soybean futures continued to rise, possibly driven by soybean meal. Factors such as improved exports and产区 weather are relatively positive. South American market quotes remained stable, with limited overall pressure [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures showed a significant upward trend, mainly due to market news disturbances. The subsequent supply change is the main influencing factor. Rapeseed meal futures followed the rise of soybean meal, with relatively limited changes. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened [3]. - The month - to - month spreads of soybean meal futures decreased, mainly driven by the unilateral rise. The supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is gradually improving, and the month - to - month spreads of rapeseed meal futures mainly fluctuated [3]. Group 4: Fundamental Analysis International Market - According to the monthly supply - demand report, the US soybean ending stocks remain at around 350 million bushels, higher than market expectations, mainly because exports were not increased. Although US soybean exports have improved, the overall supply - demand situation is still relatively loose [4]. - In South America, the supply - side influence has increased recently. The growth of new - crop soybeans in Brazil is good, and the harvest is progressing smoothly. The monthly supply - demand report raised Brazil's soybean production. With limited demand growth for new - crop soybeans in Brazil, exports are expected to increase significantly, but this is still subject to actual yield changes in the short term. Brazil's old - crop soybeans have good export and crushing performance, with obvious export growth. The demand - side support for the old - crop market still exists. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly, with the pressure improving compared to before, but the export growth space may be relatively limited [4]. Domestic Market - The domestic spot supply is gradually recovering. The oil mill operating rate, which had decreased before, has started to rise recently, but the overall quantity is less than before. The提货 volume has also decreased slightly, and the inventory is declining. Market transactions have decreased recently, and the overall market demand is average. The uncertainty of long - term supply has decreased, and prices have already reflected the positive factors [6]. - As of February 20, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 37,200 tons, the operating rate was 1.02%, the soybean inventory was 5.1954 million tons, an increase of 421,500 tons (8.83%) from last week and an increase of 181,200 tons (3.61%) year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 842,500 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons (0.37%) from last week and an increase of 343,700 tons (68.91%) year - on - year [6]. - The domestic rapeseed meal demand is generally average. The oil mill operating rate has increased compared to last week. It is expected that the crushing volume in the week ending February 20 was 0 tons. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal has increased but remains at a low level. The supply volume remains low, and although the inventory of granular rapeseed meal has decreased, it is still at a relatively high level, and there is still overall supply pressure. Although there is uncertainty in the subsequent supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, the demand is also average, and there is still pressure on the near - term spot, so rapeseed meal is expected to mainly fluctuate [6]. Group 5: Logic Analysis - The recent drivers of US soybeans are mainly concentrated in the macro - aspect, and the overall positive reaction is relatively sufficient. It is relatively difficult for prices to rise further [7]. - There are certain disturbances in South American weather, mainly in the southern region, and the relatively wet conditions in some parts of Brazil have affected the soybean harvest progress. However, overall, the impact on yield is expected to be relatively limited. The high South American quotes are mainly because the pressure has not been fully reflected, and prices are expected to mainly fluctuate [7]. - The domestic soybean meal futures are running strongly, mainly affected by market information disturbances, but the actual impact amplitude is limited. The market shipment volume is relatively low, which may have a certain impact on subsequent supply, but the overall quantity is still relatively sufficient, and the unilateral upward space is limited. In a situation of loose supply, it is also relatively difficult for the month - to - month spreads to rise further [7]. - The domestic rapeseed meal futures are running strongly, mainly driven by the rise of soybean meal. The sustainability may be relatively limited, and there may be certain pressure in the future. The month - to - month spreads of rapeseed meal are under certain pressure. Although the subsequent supply of soybean meal is tight, the spot price is generally in a downward state, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to mainly widen [7]. Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Adopt a mainly bearish approach [8]. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread [8]. - Options: Mainly adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [8]. Group 7: Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the soybean pressing profit data from Brazil for different shipping months (April - August), including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and the changes in pressing profit compared to yesterday [9].

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 2 月 25 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 投资咨询证号： Z0018389 联系方式： 第二部分 行情分析 河南花生价格偏强，东北花生价格稳定。目前东北吉林扶余 308 通货 4.7 元/斤，较 昨日价格稳定，辽宁昌图 4.65 元/斤，较昨日价格稳定，兴城花育 23 价格 4.4 元/斤，较 昨日价格稳定。河南产区白沙通货米报价 3.55-3.85 元/斤，较昨日价格上涨 0.05 元/斤， 山东莒南 3.4 元/斤，较昨日价格稳定。进口塞内加尔花生预售 7500 元/吨，较昨日价格 稳定。预计花生现货短期相对偏强。 今日部分花生油厂收购价格稳定，主流成交价格维持在 6900-7900 元/吨，油厂理论 保本价 7800 元/吨。今日豆油价格上涨，花生油价格稳定，国内一级普通花生油报价稳定 在 14300 元/吨，价格较昨日稳定，小榨浓香型花生油市场报价为 16500 元/吨，价格较昨 1 / 4 花生日报 :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn | 第一部分 | | | | | 数 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall macro sentiment during the holiday was positive, with gold, silver, non - ferrous metals, and crude oil rising significantly, which provided some support for cotton prices. There are no obvious negative factors in the cotton's fundamental situation. According to the USDA's annual report during the holiday, the global cotton production decreased by 3% (US production was adjusted down, and China's production was reduced by 9%). The supply is expected to be 2525 and consumption 2614, showing a relatively tight situation. If future consumption continues to increase, there may be a tight - balance situation. The signing situation has improved. As of February 12, US cotton signing was 10.57 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.33 million tons, and the cumulative signing was 192.79 million tons, 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The current technical chart of the cotton futures has broken through the previous high, which may attract speculative funds. It is expected that the cotton futures price will likely maintain an upward trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 70, and CY05 and CY09 contracts decreased by 45 and 25 respectively. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 decreased by 13325, and the open interest decreased by 270 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 45, and the price of Cot A was 72.80 (compared with 73.20 before). The price of some other products such as polyester staple fiber increased, while the prices of some like viscose staple fiber remained unchanged [2]. - **Spread**: In the cotton and棉纱 markets, there are various spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 530 with no change, and the CY05 - CF05 spread was 5750, an increase of 25 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - As of February 17, 2026, the net long - position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 23.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6 percentage points [4]. - As of February 13, the number of un - priced contracts of the ON - CALL 2603 contract by sellers decreased by 1090 to 5015, a week - on - week reduction of 60,000 tons. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 2025/26 season increased by 2791 to 33299, equivalent to 760,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons. The total number of un - priced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 48643, equivalent to 1.1 million tons, an increase of 2931 compared with last week, a week - on - week increase of 70,000 tons [4]. - On February 25, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton was 0.1406 yuan/ton·km, a week - on - week decrease of 1.68%. It is expected that the freight rate index will show a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [4]. - **Trading Logic**: The overall macro sentiment during the holiday was positive, and there were no obvious negative factors in the cotton's fundamentals. The global cotton production decreased, and the supply - demand situation was relatively tight. The signing situation improved, and the technical chart showed a breakthrough, so the price is expected to rise [5]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will be mainly range - bound, and the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. It is advisable to build long positions on dips and not to chase the high [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - The trading of pure cotton yarn has not recovered. Spinning mills are mainly stocking up and fulfilling previous orders. Due to the significant increase in Zhengzhou cotton prices, most spinning mills and traders have suspended price quotations, and some spinning mills have raised prices by 300 - 500 yuan. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and the order situation after the downstream resumes work [8][9]. - The start - up rate of cotton fabric mills has gradually increased, but there are few inquiries for cotton grey fabrics, and there are few price quotations from fabric mills and traders. Due to the increase in raw material prices, fabric mills and traders have the intention to raise prices, and it is necessary to observe the acceptance of downstream customers. Currently, there are few new orders [9]. 3.3 Options - **Option Data**: The report provides data on several option contracts, including the option contract name, underlying contract price, closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, and other indicators. For example, the closing price of CF605C14600.CZC was 334.00, a decrease of 16.9%, and its implied volatility was 13.3% [11]. - **Volatility**: The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812, with a slight increase compared with the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were different, such as 13.3% for CF605 - C - 14600, 11.3% for CF605 - C - 14200, and 11.2% for CF605 - P - 13800 [11]. - **Option Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based price difference between domestic and international cotton markets, the basis of cotton in different months (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month), the spread between CY05 and CF05, CY01 and CF01, and the spread between different cotton futures contracts (CF9 - 1, CF5 - 9) [14][15][20]