Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Black Metal Industry - Report Type: Daily Report - Date: October 10, 2025 - Researcher: Guo Chao [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Prices - **Coking Coal Futures**: JM01 at 1161 (down 3 from yesterday), JM05 at 1259 (down 4), JM09 at 1346 (down 5) - **Coke Futures**: J01 at 1666.5 (up 12.5 from yesterday), J05 at 1819 (up 10), J09 at 1896.5 (up 1.5) [3] Spot Prices - **Coking Coal Spot**: Low - sulfur prime coking coal at 1530 (unchanged), Medium - sulfur prime coking coal at 1280 (unchanged) - **Coke Spot**: Port quasi - first - grade (wet - quenched) at 1420 (unchanged), Port quasi - first - grade (dry - quenched) at 1650 (unchanged) [3] Warehouse Receipts - **Coking Coal Warehouse Receipts**: Shanxi coal at 1200 (unchanged), Meng 5 at 1164 (unchanged) - **Coke Warehouse Receipts**: Port spot (wet - quenched) at 1527 (unchanged), Port spot (dry - quenched) at 1650 (unchanged) [3] Basis - **Coking Coal Basis**: For Shanxi coal, 01 contract at 39, 05 contract at - 59, 09 contract at - 146 - **Coke Basis**: For port spot (wet - quenched), 01 contract at - 140, 05 contract at - 182, 09 contract at - 260 [3] Transportation Prices - **Coking Coal Transportation**: Jiexiu to Fengnan District at 140 (unchanged), Xiaoyi to Guye District at 150 (unchanged) - **Coke Transportation**: Jiexiu to Rizhao Port at 160 (down 15 from yesterday), Xiaoyi to Rizhao Port at 165 (down 15) [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Adopt a bottom - fishing buying strategy for coking coal, but be cautious about the upside potential [6] - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Futures - Spot**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] Market Analysis - **Supply**: Domestic coking coal supply in October is expected to be stable, lower than last year. Imported coal has room for growth. Future coal production may be restricted by policies such as over - production checks [6] - **Demand**: Iron production in October is expected to remain high, supporting raw material prices. Steel demand has resilience but lacks obvious highlights, restricting the upside of raw material prices [6] Group 4: Important Information - **Steel Mills**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.27%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, up 3.48 percentage points year - on - year. Daily iron production is 241.54 tons, down 0.27 tons from last week, up 8.46 tons year - on - year [8] - **Coking Coal Market**: In the Lvliang coking coal online auction on the 10th, most prices rose. The total listed volume was 192,000 tons, with 172,000 tons sold and 20,000 tons unsold [10] Group 5: Related Drawings - **Coking Coal**: Include price charts of medium - sulfur prime coking coal, Meng 5 clean coal, high - quality low - volatile Australian coal, etc., as well as basis charts of coking coal [13][15][16] - **Coke**: Include price index charts, export price charts, and basis charts of coke [23][24][27]

大宗商品研究所 黑色研发报告 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE01 | 795.0 | 790.5 | 4.5 | I01-I05 | 20.5 | 19.5 | 1.0 | | DCE05 | 774.5 | 771.0 | 3.5 | I05-I09 | 21.5 | 20.5 | 1.0 | | DCE09 | 753.0 | 750.5 | 2.5 | I09-I01 | -42.0 | -40.0 | -2.0 | | 现货 | 昨天 | 前天 | 涨跌 | 折标准品 | 01厂库基差 | 05厂库基差 | 09厂库基差 | | PB粉(60.8%) | 777 | 770 | 7 | 846 | 48 | 67 | 88 | | 纽曼粉 | 778 | 774 | 4 | 838 | 40 | 59 | 80 | | 麦克粉 | 775 | 768 | 7 | 841 | 43 | 62 | 83 | | 金布巴粉(60.5%) | 754 | 74 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属早报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 公众号二维码 银河投研黑色与有色 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F03105917 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 黑色金属每日早盘观察 钢材 【相关资讯】 1.本周，五大钢材品种供应 863.31 万吨，周环比降 3.76 万吨，降幅为 0.4%；总库存 1600.72 万吨，周环比增 127.86 万吨，增幅 8.7%；周消费量为 751.43 万吨，其中建材 消费环比降 32.8%，板材消费环比降 7.8%。 2.工信部最新数据显示，2025 年前八个月，我国规模以上工业中小企业增加值同比增 长 7.6%，增速比大型企业高 3.3 个百分点。8 月份，中小企业出口指数为 51.9%，连续 17 个月处于扩张区间。 现货价格：网价上海地区螺纹 3240 元（+10），北京地区 3170（+10），上海地区热卷 3350 元（+20），天津地区热卷 3290 元（+1 ...

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 研究员：贾瑞林 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数(欧线)日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 増减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 増减幅 | | EC2510 | 1,121.1 | 1.2 | 0.11% | 6.475.0 | -58.39% | 18,352.0 | -12.73% | | EC2512 | 1,571.0 | -117.0 | -6.93% | 31,475.0 | -24.17% | 28,056.0 | 15.83% | | EC2602 | 1,338.0 | -68.0 | -4.84% | 7,164.0 | -43.98% ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 【粕类日报】美豆回落压力继续增加 国内盘面整体下行 基本面：美国近期暂停发布相关报告，市场新增信息有限。前期美豆旧作平衡表结转库 存小幅上调，旧作方面整体变化不大，需求完成情况良好。新作产量方面对单产进行了小幅 下调，但因种植面积进行了小幅上调，整体供应端略有增加，库存较前期小幅上调。由于当 前价格对于美豆库存体现并不明显，因此盘面回落空间相对有限，后续仍然主要受出口方面 影响，如果美豆出口继续缺乏明显提振，则后续可能仍将表现出比较明显的下行压力，但在 整体出口空间有限的背景下，预计盘面反弹空间也相对受限。南美旧作整体以供需偏宽松为 主，主要出口国大豆大豆产量预计增加 1539 万吨，压榨量增加 821 万吨，总体结转库存或 者出口量可能呈现增加态势。并且，当前巴西农户大豆卖货进度相对偏慢，预计价格整体压 力仍然存在。不过需要关注的是，当前巴西大豆价格较高的主要影响仍然在于对于后续出口 相对比较乐观。国际豆粕整体供应压力仍然比较明显，预计全年主要产区大豆压榨量增加 2153.6 万吨，主要豆粕进口国进口量仅小幅增加，在此背景下，预计国 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of the pig market continues to increase, with a significant decline in spot prices. Futures prices are also under pressure and are expected to continue to decline. The follow - up spot and futures prices of pigs may still face downward pressure due to high supply [2][5] - The trading strategy suggests shorting near - month contracts, conducting an LH15 reverse spread, and taking a wait - and - see approach for options [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - The average price of live pigs across the country dropped from 11.19 yuan/kg yesterday to 11.05 yuan/kg today, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg. The prices in various regions showed a general downward trend, with significant drops in some areas such as Shandong (down 0.41 yuan/kg) and Jiangsu (down 0.48 yuan/kg) [2] Futures Price - Futures prices also declined. For example, LH01 dropped from 12825 yuan to 12165 yuan, a decrease of 660 yuan; LH03 dropped from 12480 yuan to 11970 yuan, a decrease of 510 yuan [2] Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices decreased from 212 yuan last week to 183 yuan this week, a decrease of 29 yuan. Sow prices dropped from 1570 yuan to 1563 yuan, a decrease of 7 yuan [2] Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 spread decreased from - 535 to - 700, a decrease of 165; LH9 - 1 spread increased from 1205 to 1700, an increase of 495; LH9 - 11 spread increased from 1675 to 2270, an increase of 595; LH11 - 1 spread decreased from - 470 to - 570, a decrease of 100 [2] Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume increased from 152586 heads yesterday to 152651 heads today, an increase of 65 heads [2] Size Pig Price Spreads - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs increased from 0.4 to 0.44, an increase of 0.04; the spread between large pigs and medium - sized pigs increased from 0.37 to 0.46, an increase of 0.09 [2] Spot Breeding Profits - The self - breeding and self - raising profit decreased from - 24.44 yuan to - 74.11 yuan, a decrease of 49.66 yuan; the profit from purchasing piglets decreased from - 199.31 yuan to - 236.57 yuan, a decrease of 37.25 yuan [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the prices of live hog futures and spot have dropped significantly, with the spot price falling from 15.26 yuan/kg in early July to around 11.3 yuan/kg, a cumulative decline of 26%, and the futures price dropping from a previous high of 14,745 yuan/ton to 11,320 yuan/ton, a cumulative decline of 23%. The decline in hog prices has led to some de - capacity effects, but the far - month futures mainly follow the spot and near - month prices downwards [3]. - The continuous decline in live hog prices is due to the concentrated release of hog production capacity, increased overall supply, and limited demand support, resulting in an obvious supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the supply pressure remains, and the rebound space of spot prices is limited. The far - month support may also be limited [4]. - Although the current decline in live hog prices is relatively large, there are differences in the impact on near - term and far - term prices, and the upward driving force is relatively limited [30]. Summary by Directory Preface Summary - The prices of live hog futures and spot have continued to decline rapidly recently, and the far - month futures mainly follow the spot and near - month prices downwards [3]. Fundamental Situation 1. Limited Release of Previous Production Capacity, Limited Price Decline - The market was generally pessimistic about the live hog price this year due to high previous production capacity data. However, before the recent decline, the live hog spot price mainly fluctuated, with the price center at 14 - 15 yuan/kg. This was because the previous production capacity was not fully released. In the first quarter, the slaughter volume decreased by 2.23% year - on - year, and the price was flat year - on - year; in the second quarter, the slaughter volume increased by 0.62% year - on - year, and the price decreased by 10.67% year - on - year [8]. - The slow release of previous production capacity was affected by factors such as the rapid increase in hog slaughter weight due to farmers' pen - holding, more secondary fattening, and the relatively large proportion of large - scale enterprises' slaughter, which supported prices [9]. 2. Accumulation of Supply Surplus Pressure, Obvious Increase in Slaughter Volume - Although the third - quarter slaughter data has not been released, the year - on - year price decline of about 30% indicates a significant increase in actual slaughter volume. The increase in recent slaughter volume is due to the increase in secondary fattening slaughter, the active weight reduction in the market since May, and the reduction in the year - on - year decline of small - scale farmers' slaughter since August [12]. 3. Slaughter Pressure Still to Be Reflected, Prices to Run Weakly - The slaughter volume of various groups is increasing. The slaughter plan of large - scale enterprises this year has increased by 22.72% year - on - year, and it is expected that their subsequent slaughter volume will remain relatively high. The slaughter volume of ordinary farmers may also increase. The secondary fattening inventory is still relatively high, and the overall enthusiasm for slaughter is expected to remain high [15][16]. - The demand for live hogs has declined, with high slaughter volume, increasing frozen product inventory, a significant decline in the fresh sales rate, and limited demand support for prices [25]. 4. Gradual Initiation of Capacity Reduction, Medium - and Long - Term Price Support - As of the week ending September 30, the price of 7 - kg piglets was 212 yuan/head, lower than the market cost, and the purchase of piglets for fattening was also in a loss state. The market's capacity reduction has become more obvious, with an increase in the number of culled sows [26]. - In the short term, reducing the slaughter weight and volume may help stabilize prices, but the improvement space is limited. In the medium and long term, the overall hog production capacity is still relatively high, and the current piglet price provides some support, while the futures price is under pressure [26][30]. Comprehensive Analysis & Strategy Evaluation 1. Comprehensive Analysis - In the short term, the live hog market may still face pressure. The subsequent slaughter volume is expected to increase, and the overall supply will remain at a relatively high level. The stabilization of spot prices is mainly affected by slaughter weight and motivation. A further decline in slaughter weight may drive a phased rebound in prices, but medium - and long - term price changes are still affected by production capacity [31]. 2. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Do not easily short - sell on the falling market. Instead, short - sell on rebounds and wait for a significant decline in slaughter weight. Do not easily determine the bottom for far - month contracts, as capacity changes have a significant impact [5][32]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy for LH15 [5][35]. - Options: Sell call options on near - month contracts at high prices [5][35].

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5436 | -36 | -350 | 102959 | -28210 | 124065 | -5872 | | SM主力合约 | 5760 | -8 | -178 | 125982 | -27369 | 376591 | 12742 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5300 | 0 | -180 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | 0 | -20 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5280 | 0 | -150 | 硅锰6517宁夏 | 5620 | 0 | -40 | | 72%FeSi ...

黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | RB05 | 68TE | 3159 | 0 | HC05-RB05 | 133 | 134 | -1 | | RB10 | 3019 | 3020 | -1 | HC10-RB10 | 387 | 350 | 37 | | RB01 | 3103 | 3096 | 7 | HC01-RB01 | 182 | 190 | -8 | | RB01-RB05 | -56 | -63 | 7 | RB10-RB01 | -84 | -76 | -8 | | RB05-RB10 | 140 | 139 | 1 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -130 | -119 | -10 | RB05/105 | 4.08 | 4.10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The global plastic additives market is on an upward trajectory, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 3.2% in consumption from 2024 to 2029, driven by growth in plastic - consuming end - use sectors and influenced by changing policies [2] - The domestic PE and PP markets show different trends in capacity utilization, and shipping freight indices have an impact on polyolefin investment [2] - Events such as the US federal government shutdown and changes in import volumes affect the polyolefin market [5] - Policies like the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" and oil price fluctuations influence the market [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - **L Plastic**: L2601 contract prices and regional LLDPE prices fluctuate. For example, on 25 - 10 - 10, L2601 closed at 7153 points, down 28 points or 0.39%. Regional LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China showed weak adjustments [1] - **PP Polypropylene**: PP2601 contract prices and regional PP拉丝 prices also fluctuate. On 25 - 10 - 10, PP2601 closed at 6852 points, down 51 points or 0.74%. Domestic PP market prices declined [1] Important Information - The global plastic additives market is growing, and the consumption of plastic additives is expected to increase at a CAGR of 3.2% from 2024 to 2029 [2] - The US federal government shutdown in October 2025 caused economic losses, with an estimated weekly loss of about $15 billion [5] - Seven departments issued the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of over 5% in industry added - value [8] Logical Analysis - Domestic PE capacity utilization has increased for 4 consecutive weeks, reaching 83.9%, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Domestic PP capacity utilization has increased for 3 consecutive weeks, reaching 77.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2] - In August 2025, the net import of polyethylene decreased to 83.4 million tons, and that of polypropylene was - 2.9 million tons, with a difference of 86.3 million tons, which is favorable for the L - PP spread [5] - In September 2025, Brent crude oil rose to $67.6 per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 7.5%, which is negative for L [9] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Different strategies are recommended for L and PP contracts on different dates. For example, on 25 - 10 - 10, the L 01 contract should be watched, and the PP 01 contract should be lightly short - tried [2] - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: Hold the L2601 - PP2601 spread and set stop - losses at appropriate levels. For example, on 25 - 10 - 10, the spread was +313 points [2][3] - **Options**: Generally, the option strategy is to watch [2][3][6]