研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 【生猪日报】出栏略有增加 现货整体反弹 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2026/1/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 12.88 | 12.91 | -0.03 | 山西 （-100） | 12.65 | 12.58 | 0.07 | | 湖北（0） | 12.70 | 12.70 | 0.00 | 辽宁 （-300） | 12.42 | 12.21 | 0.21 | | 安徽（200） | 13.11 | 13.11 | 0.00 | 吉林（-300） | 12.28 | 12.05 | 0.23 | | 湖南（100） | 12.73 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price in the futures market continued to rise today, while the spot steel trading volume was generally average. The basis slightly shrunk, with a small amount of spot-futures purchases and mainly low-price transactions. - Last week, the production of the five major steel products increased, and the molten iron output continued to rise due to the recovery of profit levels. The total steel inventory started to accumulate, but the hot-rolled coil inventory continued to decline, with the inventory shifting from the factory warehouse to the social warehouse, and the overall rebar inventory accumulated. - Affected by the season, the apparent demand for building materials further weakened, and the funds available to downstream construction sites decreased. The demand for hot-rolled coils slightly declined, but there was a replenishment demand in the manufacturing industry before the Spring Festival. The steel export performance in January remained strong. - On the raw material side, the coal mine inventory decreased. Driven by market news, the commodity market recently experienced a sharp rise, which led to an increase in steel prices. The structural shortage of PB fines has not been resolved, and the first quarter is also the traditional off-season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills have a rigid demand for replenishment, providing cost support. - Recently, the continuous resumption of molten iron production has also limited the further rise of steel prices. In the short term, the steel price will maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend, but the upside space is limited. [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: The prices of RB05, RB10, and RB01 contracts increased by 21 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, and 44 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads between different contracts and the contract basis also changed. The rebar profit on the futures market showed different trends for different contracts. [2] - **Rebar Spot**: The prices of rebar in different regions changed slightly, with the lowest delivery price at 3200 yuan/ton. The regional price differences and spot profits also showed different changes. [2] - **Hot-rolled Coil Futures**: The prices of HC05, HC10, and HC01 contracts increased by 17 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton, and 45 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads between different contracts and the contract basis also changed. The hot-rolled coil profit on the futures market showed different trends for different contracts. [2] - **Hot-rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of hot-rolled coils in different regions changed slightly, with the lowest delivery price at 3280 yuan/ton. The regional price differences and spot profits also showed different changes. [2] Market Analysis - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3280 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye rebar was 3170 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil was 3290 yuan (+20), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil was 3190 yuan (-). [5] - **Trading Strategy** - **Single-sided Trading**: The steel price will maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend, but the upside space is limited. [7] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil/coal ratio at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil/rebar spread. [8] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see. [9] - **Important Information** - From January 12th, Langfang City issued an orange warning for heavy pollution weather and launched a Level II emergency response. [10] - In December 2025, 472 projects started across the country, with a total investment of approximately 534.092 billion yuan. The total investment in 2025 was approximately 27.52 trillion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of start-up investment were Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Anhui, with total investments of 121.238 billion yuan, 59.41 billion yuan, and 49.103 billion yuan respectively. [11] Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, basis, spreads, and profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils in different contracts and regions from 2022 to 2026. [15][16][17]

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2026 年 01 月 12 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | 2026/1/12 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2605收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | 豆油 | 7994 | 0 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8514 | | | | 8564 | 8384 | 570 | | 0 | 520 0 | 390 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8724 | 42 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8694 | | | | 8684 | 8854 | -30 | | 0 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 12th, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5698, up 1.17% with a decrease of 8483 in positions. The manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5930, up 0.44% with an increase of 4207 in positions [6]. - For silicon - iron, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend on the 12th, rising 50 yuan/ton in some regions. The short - term supply start - up rate rebounded slightly, but due to the differential electricity price in Shaanxi, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future. The demand side shows that although iron - making is in the resumption cycle, the accumulation of steel inventory may restrict the resumption space of blast furnaces. With stable electricity prices in the main production areas, and considering the warming of the commodity market sentiment and the supply contraction expectation, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [6]. - For manganese - silicon, the manganese ore spot was stable with a slight upward trend on the 12th, and the manganese - silicon spot rose by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The start - up rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and new production capacity was put into operation at the end of the year, keeping the supply stable. The demand side is supported by the expected resumption of blast furnaces in January and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand. With the continuous decline of manganese ore port inventory and the rising overseas mine quotes, the cost push makes manganese - silicon slightly stronger in the short - term [6]. - The unilateral trading strategy is that due to the expected improvement in supply and demand and cost push, it will be slightly stronger in the short - term; the arbitrage strategy is to wait and see; the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market** - SF main contract: closed at 5698, daily change +66, weekly change +74, trading volume 201430 (daily change - 28502), open interest 233205 (daily change - 8483) [3]. - SM main contract: closed at 5930, daily change +26, weekly change +56, trading volume 144766 (daily change - 27388), open interest 257314 (daily change +4207) [3]. - **Spot Market** - Silicon - iron: 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and 90 yuan/ton weekly; in Ningxia it was 5420 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Qinghai it was 5350 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Jiangsu it was 5750 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Tianjin it was 5850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and stable weekly [3]. - Manganese - silicon: 6517 manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Ningxia it was 5650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton daily and 80 yuan/ton weekly; in Guangxi it was 5800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and 70 yuan/ton weekly; in Jiangsu it was 5820 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton daily and 40 yuan/ton weekly; in Tianjin it was 5750 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton daily and 20 yuan/ton weekly [3]. - **Basis/Spread** - Silicon - iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 248, daily change - 16, weekly change +16; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 278, daily change - 66, weekly change - 24; Qinghai - main contract basis was - 348, daily change - 66, weekly change - 24; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 300, daily change - 50, weekly change - 90; SF - SM spread was - 232, daily change +40, weekly change +18 [3]. - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 230, daily change - 26, weekly change - 6; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 280, daily change - 6, weekly change +24; Guangxi - main contract basis was - 130, daily change +24, weekly change +14; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 100, daily change +50, weekly change +20 [3]. - **Raw Materials** - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was 42 yuan/ton - degree, stable daily and up 0.3 yuan/ton - degree weekly; South African semi - carbonate was 36 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree daily and 0.8 yuan/ton - degree weekly; Gabonese lump was 43 yuan/ton - degree, stable daily and up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree weekly [3]. - Blue charcoal small pieces: in Shaanxi it was 770 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Ningxia it was 840 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Inner Mongolia it was 750 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Slightly stronger in the short - term due to the expected marginal improvement of supply - demand and cost push [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. - **Important Information** - South32's quotation for South African semi - carbonate lump in February 2026 shipments to China was 4.4 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.25), and Australian lump was 5.1 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.25) [8]. - Jupiter's announced loading price of manganese ore to China in February 2026: Mn36.5% South African semi - carbonate lump was 4.32 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.17) [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures including the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, monthly spreads of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, basis of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, spot prices of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, ferroalloy electricity prices, production costs and profits of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon [9][11][13] etc.

Group 1: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index is 109.01, up 0.31 from the previous trading day [2] - Luochuan Semi - Commodity Paper - bagged 70 is 4.20 yuan, unchanged [2] - Qixia First and Second - grade Paper - bagged 80 is 4.10 yuan, unchanged [2] - Yiyuan Paper - bagged 70 is 2.50 yuan, unchanged [2] - Penglai First and Second - grade Paper - bagged 80 is 4.25 yuan, unchanged [2] - The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.80 yuan, down 0.07 [2] Futures Prices - AP01 has a value of 0, and the change is -9999 [2] - AP05 is 9630, and the change is not clearly presented [2] - AP10 is 8481, up 9 from the previous trading day [2] Price Differentials - Qixia First and Second - grade 80 - AP01 is 8200, up 9999 [2] - Qixia First and Second - grade 80 - AP05 is -1430, up 59 [2] - Qixia First and Second - grade 80 - AP10 is -281.0, down 9 [2] Group 2: Market News and Views Transaction Logic - This season's apple warehouse receipts have high costs due to low high - quality fruit rates, supporting the apple futures price [5] - The latest cold - storage apple outbound volume in the week of January 2nd is 10.47 million tons, and although the year - on - year volume decreased, the peak sales season is postponed due to the later Spring Festival [5] - As of January 2nd, the national cold - storage inventory is 7.3356 billion tons, at a low level only higher than the 2018/19 season [5] - The 5 - month contract has weakened recently due to the expected weak demand, but it may rise if the demand remains normal [5] Transaction Strategy - For the single - side strategy, hold the long position in the May contract and short the October contract on rallies [8] - For the arbitrage strategy, go long on the May contract and short the October contract [8] - For the options strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Other Market Data - As of January 7, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas is 7.209 billion tons, a decrease of 126,000 tons from last week, with a slightly faster de - stocking speed [7] - In November 2025, the fresh apple import volume is 0.25 million tons, a 18.19% month - on - month decrease and a 48.76% year - on - year increase. The cumulative import volume from January to November 2025 is 1.137 billion tons, a 19.71% year - on - year increase [7] - In November 2025, the fresh apple export volume is about 1.216 billion tons, a 51.28% month - on - month increase and a 12.42% year - on - year increase [7] - The apple prices in the producing areas are stable, with the main market trend being flat. The cold - storage packaging volume in the producing areas has increased, but the merchants' stocking enthusiasm is average [7] - The mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity apples above 70 in Luochuan cold storage is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty, and the market is stable during the Spring Festival stocking period [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product research report focusing on eggs, dated January 12, 2026, by researcher Liu Qiannan [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3300, up 122 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3578, down 8; JD09 closed at 3962, down 17 [2] - The 01 - 05 spread was -278, up 130; 05 - 09 spread was -384, up 9; 09 - 01 spread was 662, down 139 [2] - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.43, up 0.03; 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.06, up 0.02; 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.28, unchanged; 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.72, down 0.01; 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.37, down 0.01 [2] Spot Market - The average price in the main production areas was 3.32 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.53 yuan/jin, up 0.13 yuan/jin [2][4] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.27 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin [2][7] Profit Calculation - The profit per chicken was 13.35 yuan, up 4.73 yuan from the previous day [2] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.27 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin; the average price of chicken chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - laying chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged [2] - The average price of corn was 2354 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3190 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.61 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan [2] Group 3: Fundamental Information - In December, the national laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, lower than expected. The monthly output of chicken chicks in sample enterprises was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [5] - From December 18th, the weekly slaughter volume of culled hens in the main production areas was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average slaughter age of culled hens was 486 days, unchanged from the previous week [5] - As of December 18th, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas was 7023 tons, with little change from the previous week, at a low level over the years [5] - As of December 18th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On December 12th, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6] - As of December 18th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1 day, a slight decrease from the previous week; the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, a slight increase from the previous week [6] Group 4: Trading Logic - Recently, the number of culled chickens has increased, and the previous supply pressure has been relieved. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. However, the demand side has been average recently. The near - month contracts are expected to be mainly volatile and weak, and the far - month May contract can be considered for long - building on dips as the supply pressure eases [8] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The short - term February contract is expected to be range - bound, and the far - month May contract can be considered for long - building on dips [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9]

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: Demand Improves Slightly, Egg Prices Edge Up [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The egg market is driven by sentiment, with prices rising due to pre - Spring Festival stocking, but there is pressure to digest the rapid short - term increase. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the price trend in 2026 will be affected by factors such as supply adjustment and seasonal demand [5][17] Summary by Section First Part: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.2 yuan/jin, up 0.3 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.4 yuan/jin, also up 0.3 yuan/jin. The market was boosted by sentiment, but there was pressure to digest the rapid price increase. The price of old hens in the production areas remained stable, with a weekly average of around 4.10 yuan/jin [5] 2. Supply Analysis - From January 8th, the weekly egg chicken culling volume in the main production areas was 18.96 million, a 4.3% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 484 days, the same as the previous week. In December, the national laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a 5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The monthly egg chicken chick output of sample enterprises was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of January 9th, the corn price was around 2351 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal price was 3190 yuan/ton. The comprehensive feed cost was about 2603 yuan/ton, and the cost per jin of eggs remained stable. As of January 8th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.13 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On January 18th, the expected profit of egg chicken farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - As of January 8th, the weekly egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7377 tons, with little change from the previous week and at a low level over the years. As of December 18th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing from the previous week. On December 17th, the vegetable price index and pork price both showed a slight recovery [16] 5. Trading Strategies - In the cash market, it is expected that the supply pressure will be greatly relieved in the first half of 2026, and the egg price will gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase will be limited. In the second half of the year, the supply is uncertain, and the price is likely to rise during the peak consumption season. In the futures market, it is recommended to consider building long positions at low prices for the May contract in the first - half peak season and short - term long positions with high - level closing for the August and September contracts. For the short - term February contract, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and long positions can be considered for the distant - month contracts. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [17] Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Egg Chicken Farming Situation - Not provided with specific summarized data 2. Spread and Basis - The document shows the basis and spread data of different contract months (January, May, September) from 2018 - 2025, but no specific summarized data is provided [24][25][28]

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡，最终报收 1783（+4/+0.22%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价企稳，收单乏力，河南出厂报 1680-1710 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1680-1710 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1700-1720 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1630-1650 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1550-1620 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】1 月 12 日，尿素行业日产 20.20 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.18 万吨；较去 年同期增加 2.00 万吨；今日开工率 85.81%，较去年同期 81.26%回升 4.55%。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价整体平稳，市场情绪低迷，成交乏力，厂家收单零星，个低价区成 交尚可。山东地区主流出厂报价上涨，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率提升，原 料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商恐 高开始出货，新单成交乏力，省内尿素厂收单一般，但待发充裕，预计出厂报价坚挺为 主；河南地区市场情 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall repair trend of December's CPI and PPI readings continued, but the structural differentiation of price indicators was not significantly improved. The core CPI's year - on - year repair momentum may have slowed, and the PPI is expected to turn positive in Q2 [6][14][18]. - The bond market was weak this week. The strong performance of the equity market at the beginning of the year suppressed the bond market. Factors such as the correction of unreasonable interest - rate cut expectations and the lower - than - expected central bank bond - buying scale led to a larger adjustment in the short - and medium - term bonds. However, the impact of the equity market on the bond market weakened marginally towards the weekend [6]. - The factors restricting the bond market's strength still exist, so a relatively cautious judgment is held for the Q1 trend. But there may be short - term trading opportunities in bond futures, and it is recommended to focus on medium - and long - term contracts [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - This week's CPI data met expectations, with food and tobacco prices and precious metal jewelry prices being the main drivers of CPI repair. The core CPI's year - on - year repair momentum may have slowed, and the household appliance prices in the household goods and services sub - item increased strongly [14]. - The PPI data slightly exceeded expectations. The production data prices in the upstream were the main source of PPI repair, while the downstream consumer goods prices had weak repair momentum. The domestic PPI year - on - year is expected to turn positive in Q2 [18][16]. - The strong equity market at the beginning of the year suppressed the bond market, but the impact weakened marginally towards the weekend [24]. - The capital price did not fall further, and the central bank's bond - buying was lower than expected, leading to a relatively large adjustment in the short - and medium - term bonds [26]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Try to go long at low prices in the short term [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Contract Valuation - The IRR of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL were about 1.3126%, 1.4026%, 1.2506%, and 0.7725% respectively. The futures bond valuation was slightly underestimated compared to the spot bonds [36]. 3.2.2 Contract Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL are presented in the data [41]. 3.2.3 Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume and open interest data of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts are provided [44]. 3.2.4 Spot Bond Yields and Spreads - The curves of spot bond yields, term spreads, spreads between national bonds and local bonds, and spreads between 10Y national bonds and state - owned development bonds are presented [47]. 3.2.5 US Treasury Yields and Exchange Rates - Data on the US 10 - year Treasury yield, Sino - US 10 - year Treasury spread, US dollar index, and US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate are provided [50].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, while the domestic white sugar price will range - bound. It is advisable to consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is suggested [8][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Disk**: SR09 closed at 5,291, down 8 (-0.15%); SR01 closed at 5,316, up 6 (0.11%); SR05 closed at 5,285, down 3 (-0.06%). The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed [3] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions varied, with prices in places like Liuzhou at 5390 yuan/ton, Kunming at 5230 yuan/ton, etc. The price in Nanning decreased by 10 yuan/ton [3] - **Basis**: The basis in different regions also showed differences, such as 105 in Liuzhou, - 55 in Kunming, etc [3] - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: SR05 - SR01 spread was - 31, down 9; SR09 - SR05 spread was 6, down 5; SR09 - SR01 spread was - 25, down 14 [3] - **Import Profits**: The quota - within and quota - outside prices, as well as the spreads with domestic prices and futures prices, were provided for Brazilian and Thai imports [3] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Important Information - In December, the forecasted arrival of tariff - quota - outside raw sugar was 268,600 tons. From the 25/26 sugar - making season to the end of December, Brazil had cumulatively exported 1,447,100 tons of raw sugar to China, a year - on - year increase of 878,000 tons. The estimated import volume of sugar in December was between 400,000 - 500,000 tons, higher than last year's 390,000 tons. The total sugar import volume in 2025 was expected to be around 4.8 million tons, higher than 4.35 million tons in 2024 [5] - As of January 8, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in India's Maharashtra state, 197 sugar mills had started production, 2 less than the same period last season. The crushed sugarcane was 63.292 million tons, an increase of 19.878 million tons compared to the same period last season, and the sugar production was 5.6297 million tons, with an average sugar - making rate of 8.89% [5] - In December, Brazil exported 385,300 tons of raw sugar to China, a year - on - year increase of 331,000 tons. In 2025, Brazil cumulatively exported 4,767,500 tons of raw sugar to China, a year - on - year increase of 1,747,200 tons [6] 3.2.2 Logical Analysis - Internationally, Brazilian sugar supply pressure will gradually ease as the sugarcane harvest nears completion. The market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's high bi - weekly production may lead to an over - expected increase, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices. However, due to the low sugar price and the strong performance of bulk commodities, the US sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [8] - Domestically, the high processing cost of white sugar (most sugar mills in Guangxi have a cost of over 5400 yuan/ton) and the bottom - building trend of the US sugar price on the external market (the quota - outside cost of imported Brazilian sugar is between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton) support the white sugar price. But considering the peak sugar - pressing season and the expected global sugar increase in the 25/26 season, there is significant pressure on the upper oscillation platform of white sugar prices. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate [8] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and the domestic white sugar price will range - bound. Consider low - buying and high - selling within the range [9] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10] - **Options**: Sell put options [10] 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include graphs of monthly inventory, production, spot prices, price spreads, and basis of white sugar in different regions and time periods, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND [11][14][15]