Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot log market shows a pattern of "high supply, increasing inventory, and weak demand", with supply expected to remain relatively high and demand remaining weak. Cost is the main supporting factor, and attention should be paid to the risk of log price increases caused by new fees for US ships starting from October 14, 2025 [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The spot prices of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu have remained flat for two consecutive weeks, still 5 - 9% lower year - on - year. The price of spruce in Shandong is at a high for the year. This week's arrival volume was 456,000 cubic meters, a 79% week - on - week increase. The total inventory of 13 ports was 2.99 million cubic meters, a 4.6% week - on - week increase. The daily average outbound volume was 57,000 cubic meters, a 12.7% week - on - week decrease. The construction fund availability rate slightly decreased to 59.4% [7] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to remain relatively high, and high port inventory suppresses spot prices. Demand is weak, with slow recovery in the real estate and infrastructure sectors. The cost side is the main support, as imports are still at a loss. New fees for US ships may lead to log price increases [8] - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can place a small number of long orders. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9] Core Logic Analysis - **Supply**: New Zealand's log shipments to China increased in September compared to August. This week, 12 ships with 460,000 cubic meters of logs left New Zealand ports, with 7 ships and 260,000 cubic meters going directly to China. The expected arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports from October 13 - 19 was about 455,500 cubic meters, a 79% week - on - week increase [18][19] - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the total domestic log inventory was 2.99 million cubic meters, a 4.55% week - on - week increase. Radiata pine inventory increased by 4.68%, North American timber inventory remained flat, and spruce/fir inventory decreased by 5% [22] - **Demand**: As of October 10, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 57,300 cubic meters, a 12.65% week - on - week decrease. As of October 14, the construction fund availability rate was 59.44%, a 0.1 - point week - on - week decrease [26] Weekly Data Tracking - **Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine at Rizhao Port was 760 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week and 9.52% lower year - on - year. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine at Taicang Port was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week and 4.88% lower year - on - year. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter spruce at Rizhao Port was 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week and 6.48% higher year - on - year [35][36] - **Downstream Wood Products Prices**: The mainstream transaction price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine wood in Shandong was 1280 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu it was 1270 yuan/cubic meter. The mainstream transaction price of 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine wood in Shandong was 1830 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu it was 1680 yuan/cubic meter [41] - **Import Log Costs**: In September 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine was 114 US dollars/cubic meter, a 2 - dollar decrease from last month. The CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 128 euros/cubic meter, unchanged from last month [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The coal demand has weakened, leading to a decline in coal prices. However, the domestic methanol auction prices remain firm, and the coal - to - methanol profit is stable at a high level. After the autumn maintenance, the domestic methanol supply is abundant. The international methanol device operating rate is stable, with most devices in Iran restarted, and imports are gradually recovering. As the arrival volume increases, the port inventory is accumulating rapidly. With stable downstream demand and general port demand, methanol should be shorted at high prices but not chased when shorting [3][4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Analysis of raw coal**: As of September 10, the coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin regions have rebounded, with daily coal production around 4 million tons. The demand has weakened, and the pit - mouth price continues to decline [4] - **Supply situation**: The price of raw coal has fallen, but the auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest are firm. The coal - to - methanol profit is around 660 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains high and stable. The domestic supply is continuously abundant. The US dollar price of imported methanol has dropped, and the import parity is stable. The operating rate of overseas devices is high, and the import volume in September is expected to reach 1.4 billion tons [4] - **Demand situation**: The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, but some MTO devices are operating at less than full capacity [4] - **Inventory situation**: The port inventory has increased significantly due to more imports, and the basis is weakly stable. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4] - **Trading strategy**: For single - side trading, short at high prices and do not chase short positions. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. In the over - the - counter market, sell call options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of September 11, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 72.75%, a decrease of 1.46 percentage points from last week and 0.52 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 66.54%, a decrease of 3.10 percentage points from last week [5] - **Supply - International**: From August 30, 2025, to September 5, 2025, the international (excluding China) methanol production was 1,090,107 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 74.73%, a 0.21% increase from last week [5] - **Supply - Import**: As of September 10, 2025, 14:00, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 457,100 tons during the cycle [5] - **Demand - MTO**: As of September 11, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 64.69%, a 0.31 - percentage - point increase from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 82.66%, with a slight decline [5] - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and formaldehyde have different changes. The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region increased by 19.10% [5] - **Inventory - Enterprise**: The production enterprise inventory was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 250,700 tons, an increase of 940 tons from the previous period [5] - **Inventory - Port**: As of September 10, 2025, the total port inventory was 1,550,300 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons from the previous period [5] - **Valuation**: The coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi is around 660 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference is 170 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference is 0 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has weakened [5] - **Spot price**: The price in Taicang is 2,280 (+30), and the price in the north line is 2,100 (+60) [8]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week's view was that urea would oscillate downward as it returned to fundamentals; this week's view is that the supply - demand pattern has further deteriorated, leading to an enlarged decline in urea prices [3] - Currently, the domestic supply is abundant, with the daily output dropping below 190,000 tons due to some device overhauls. The overall demand is on a downward trend, and the inventory of urea production enterprises has increased to around 1.1327 million tons [3] - The new round of Indian tender results show a total tender volume of 2.03 million tons. Although the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and relaxed export policies have a certain boosting effect on the domestic market sentiment, the domestic demand is still limited in the short term [3] - It is expected that the decline of urea will continue to widen in the short term. The trading strategy is to go short in the short - term for single - side trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Analyzes the supply - demand situation of urea, including supply changes due to device overhauls, demand from different sectors such as agriculture and industry, and the impact of Indian tenders and export policies. Proposes trading strategies based on the analysis [3] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In the 36th week of 2025 (20250904 - 0910), the utilization rate of coal - based urea production capacity was 81.47%, a 1.61% increase from the previous week; the utilization rate of gas - based urea production capacity was 72.34%, unchanged from the previous week. In Shandong, the utilization rate of urea production capacity was 80.21%, a 3.62% decrease from the previous week [4] - **Demand**: In the 37th week of 2025 (20250905 - 0911), the average weekly utilization rate of China's melamine production capacity was 55.38%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from the previous week; the utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity was 37.82%, a 4.68 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. As of September 12, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 920 tons, a 5.75% increase from the previous week. As of September 10, 2025, the advance order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.88 days, a 7.33% increase from the previous period [4] - **Inventory**: On September 10, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1327 million tons, a 3.44% increase from the previous week. As of September 11, 2025 (the 37th week), the sample inventory at ports was 549,400 tons, an 11.52% decrease from the previous week [4] - **Valuation**: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was stable, and the price of Yulin pulverized coal fluctuated slightly. The urea spot price declined, with a loss of 30 yuan/ton for fixed - bed production, a profit of 100 yuan/ton for coal - water slurry production, and a profit of 300 yuan/ton for entrained - flow bed production. The futures price dropped, with a basis of - 60 yuan/ton and a 1 - 5 spread of - 55 yuan/ton [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and methanol continues to be weak. Coal mine production has recovered, with the coal price at the mine mouth continuing to decline due to weakening demand. The domestic methanol supply is continuously abundant, with high and stable methanol production rates. The import volume is expected to increase in September, and the port inventory is continuously accumulating. The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, while the MTO device operation rate has rebounded. Although there are some factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the strong rebound of domestic commodities, the rebound height of methanol is limited due to the increase in supply and the record - high port inventory [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: The coal price has rebounded during the coal demand peak season, but the domestic methanol supply is still abundant. The MTO operation rate is stable, and the port demand is stable. The Middle - East situation is unclear, and the impact of various factors on methanol futures is significant, but the rebound height is limited [4] - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, short at high levels and do not chase short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for over - the - counter trading, sell call options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of September 18, the overall domestic methanol device operation rate was 72.66%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from last week and 0.61 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operation rate was 65.48%, a decrease of 1.06 percentage points from last week [5] - **Supply - International**: The international (ex - China) methanol production was 991,409 tons, a decrease of 61,600 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 67.96%, a decrease of 4.22% from last week. Multiple overseas devices had issues such as parking and load reduction [5] - **Supply - Import**: As of September 17, 2025, 14:00, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 35.44 tons during the period [5] - **Demand - MTO**: As of September 18, 2025, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 83.24%, an increase of 18.55 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operation rate was 84.89% [5] - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 6.29%, a month - on - month increase of 29.42%; the acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 82.41%, with a slight decrease in capacity utilization rate this week; the formaldehyde operation rate was 42.92% [5] - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 4.59 tons, a decrease of 4.39 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month decrease of 48.89% [5] - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The production enterprise inventory was 34.05 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60%; the sample enterprise order backlog was 23.38 tons, a decrease of 1.69 tons from the previous period [5] - **Inventory - Ports**: As of September 17, 2025, the total Chinese methanol port inventory was 155.78 tons, an increase of 0.75 tons from the previous period [5] - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi was around 660 yuan/ton. The port - north line price difference was 170 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference was 0 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis weakened [5] - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang was 2280 (+30), and the price in the north line was 2100 (+60) [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that the supply - demand pattern continued to deteriorate and the decline of urea widened; this week's view is that urea continues to decline as prices are cut to receive orders before the holiday [3] - The market sentiment has been average since the weekend, with the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas falling and the trading volume being mediocre [3] - The supply is abundant as the overhauled plants are gradually resuming production and the daily output has increased to over 190,000 tons; the demand is in a "vacuum period" with the agricultural demand ending and the compound fertilizer not starting large - scale production [3] - The third batch of export quotas has been implemented, and urea has returned to the domestic fundamentals. Although the collective sharp rebound of bulk commodities provides some emotional support for urea futures, the order - receiving weakens after the spot price rises, and it is still treated with a volatile mindset in the short term [3] - The trading strategy is to short on rallies in the short - term for unilateral trading without chasing the short; to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 2.1 Core Data Changes - Supply - National: In the 37th week of 2025 (20250911 - 0917), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 83.88%, a week - on - week increase of 2.41%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 72.48%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [4] - Supply - Shandong: The capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 81.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.02% [4] - Demand - Melamine: In the 38th week of 2025 (20250912 - 0918), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of China's melamine was 56.78%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from last week [4] - Demand - Compound Fertilizer: In the 38th week of 2025 (20250912 - 0918), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.63%, a week - on - week increase of 0.81 percentage points [4] - Demand - Urea Demand of Compound Fertilizer: As of September 19, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer producers in Linyi, Shandong was 370 tons, a decrease of 550 tons from last week, a week - on - week decline of 59.78% [4] - Demand - Advance Receipt: As of September 17, 2025, the advance order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.18 days, a decrease of 0.7 days from the previous period [4] - Inventory - Enterprise: On September 17, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1653 million tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.88% [4] - Inventory - Port: As of September 18, 2025 (the 38th week), the sample inventory of urea ports was 516,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,400 tons [4] - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was firm, the price of Yulin pulverized coal rose, the spot price of urea fell, the fixed - bed production had a loss of 50 yuan/ton, the water - coal slurry production had a profit of 40 yuan/ton, the entrained - flow bed production had a profit of 270 yuan/ton, the futures price fell, the basis was - 80 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 55 yuan/ton [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for industrial silicon may weaken significantly in Q1 2026 due to potential joint production cuts by silicone enterprises during the off - season and the inevitable production cuts in the polysilicon industry as "anti - involution" progresses. If the northwest silicon plants maintain their current operating rates, industrial silicon is likely to accumulate inventory in Q1 2026 [4][41]. - The short - term futures price of industrial silicon may rebound, with a support level for decline at around 8000 yuan/ton and a resistance level for rebound between 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. In Q1 2026, after the demand weakens and the factories accumulate large - scale inventory, the futures price may fall to near the cash cost line of northwest power - purchased silicon plants, with a low price reference of 7400 - 7500 yuan/ton [5][43]. - The recommended strategies are to potentially see a short - term rebound and short at high prices in the medium term for single - side trading, and to go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage [6][44]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Preface Summary 3.1.1 Supply - Demand Outlook - In December 2025, polysilicon and silicone have no plans to cut production. After the southwest silicon plants cut production at the beginning of the month, industrial silicon inventory accumulated but the amplitude was not significant. In Q1 2026, the off - season of silicone terminal demand may trigger joint production cuts by silicone enterprises, and production cuts in the polysilicon industry are inevitable as "anti - involution" advances, leading to a significant weakening of industrial silicon demand. On the supply side, silicon plants in Yunnan and Sichuan have little room to cut production, while northwest plants have low inventory and high operating rates. If they maintain the current rates, industrial silicon will likely accumulate inventory in Q1 2026 [4][41]. 3.1.2 Trading Logic - When the futures price is below 8500 yuan/ton, northwest silicon plants have little profit from warehouse delivery. Currently, with low inventory, their willingness to support prices is strong, and it may be difficult to repeat the negative feedback between futures and spot prices in May and June. The short - term support level for decline is 8000 yuan/ton, and the price may rebound to repair the basis, with a resistance level between 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. In Q1 2026, after the demand weakens and large - scale inventory accumulation occurs, negative feedback conditions will be met, and the futures price may fall to near the cash cost line of northwest power - purchased silicon plants, with a low price reference of 7400 - 7500 yuan/ton [5][43]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Single - side trading: There may be a short - term rebound, and short at high prices in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [6][44]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Analysis of the Driving Factors of the Recent Sharp Decline - The sharp and rapid decline of industrial silicon futures in recent days is due to both fundamental factors and market sentiment. Key reasons include the decline in industrial silicon exports since October, inventory accumulation during the dry season after the near - full operation of the leading manufacturer's Shanshan capacity, concerns about cost collapse due to the sharp decline of coking coal futures, and the negative impact on industrial silicon demand from the inevitable large - scale production cuts in the polysilicon industry as "anti - involution" progresses [9]. 3.2.2 December Demand is Acceptable, but Q1 2026 Demand is Expected to be Poor - **Silicone (DMC)**: Since 2022, the traditional construction industry has been sluggish, and the photovoltaic industry has also declined since 2025, reducing the demand for silicone. The silicone monomer industry has been in surplus since new capacities were put into operation in H2 2024, and DMC prices have been falling. After the call for joint production cuts in February 2025, the production of silicone monomers has gradually decreased, and factory inventories have been reduced. In December 2025, the DMC operating rate is expected to be flat compared to November, but in Q1 2026, the off - season of terminal consumption may trigger joint production cuts and reduce the demand for industrial silicon [16][17]. - **Polysilicon**: The demand for polysilicon is likely to weaken in Q1 2026 and may improve after March. If polysilicon enterprises maintain their December production schedule, the industry will accumulate 90,000 tons of inventory in three months, with a cash occupation of nearly 4 billion yuan. Given the continuous losses and high inventory, some enterprises need to cut production, and Q1 2026 is the most suitable time [25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In Q1 2026, the demand for aluminum alloy may weaken marginally, and seasonal production cuts by aluminum alloy enterprises may lead to a slight decline in the operating rate. The export of industrial silicon may gradually recover in Q1 2026, and the December export volume may be between that of September and October [28]. 3.2.3 Production Cuts by Northwest Silicon Plants in Q1 2026 Due to Losses are Needed to Restore Supply - Demand Balance - As of December 4, 2025, the number of operating furnaces in Yunnan and Sichuan has decreased, and they have little room to further reduce the operating rate in Q1 2026. The monthly production of industrial silicon in the four northwest provinces has reached 354,000 tons. If production is not cut, the oversupply situation will continue. The full cost of northwest power - purchased silicon plants is 8300 - 8600 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang power - purchased silicon plants need a futures price above 8500 yuan/ton to break even [35]. 3.2.4 The Current Inventory Structure Does Not Support a Deep Decline in the Futures Price, and Further Inventory Accumulation is Needed - The current visible inventory of industrial silicon is 970,000 tons, including 558,000 tons of social inventory, 185,100 tons of inventory in sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan, and 230,800 tons of downstream raw material inventory. Southwest silicon plants will not sell below cost after shutting down, and only a few northwest manufacturers have inventory pressure. With high intermediate inventory and concentrated ownership, the basis is difficult to weaken. It is difficult to repeat the negative cycle between futures and spot prices in May and June. Only after further inventory accumulation, when futures price decline squeezes the sales space of manufacturers and forces them to cut prices, can the negative cycle occur [38][39]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: In December 2025, polysilicon and silicone have no production - cut plans. After production cuts by southwest silicon plants at the beginning of the month, industrial silicon inventory has accumulated but the amplitude is not significant. In Q1 2026, the demand for industrial silicon may weaken significantly due to potential production cuts in the silicone and polysilicon industries. If the northwest silicon plants maintain their current operating rates, industrial silicon is likely to accumulate inventory [41][43]. - **Trading Logic**: When the futures price is below 8500 yuan/ton, northwest silicon plants have little delivery profit. Currently, with low inventory, they are strongly willing to support prices, and it is difficult to repeat the negative feedback between futures and spot prices in May and June. The short - term support level for decline is 8000 yuan/ton, and the price may rebound to repair the basis, with a resistance level between 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. In Q1 2026, after the demand weakens and large - scale inventory accumulation occurs, the futures price may fall to near the cash cost line of northwest power - purchased silicon plants, with a low price reference of 7400 - 7500 yuan/ton [5][43]. - **Operation Strategy**: Single - side trading: Short - term rebound is possible, and short at high prices in the medium term. Arbitrage: Go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [6][44].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 11 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 蛋白粕：国际市场利空体现较充分 国内供应不确定增加 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价上涨 国内糖价震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：市场传言较多，盘面波动增加 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货回落，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | 生猪：现货小幅反弹 盘面仍然承压 8 | | 花生：大型油厂开始收购，花生盘面高位震荡 10 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：库存较低 苹果基本面偏强 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：市场情绪反复，钢价震荡运行 14 | | --- | | 双焦：震荡偏弱，等待冬储启动 14 | | 铁矿：高位偏空思路对待 15 | | 铁合金：成本有支撑，需求存压制 16 | | 金银：降息+技术性扩表，提振金银市场情绪 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：联储降息落地，铂钯价格高位震荡 18 | | 铜：鲍威尔发表偏鸽言论，铜价表现坚挺 19 | | 氧化铝：空头减仓带动价格反弹 后续关注仓 ...

白糖日报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 白糖日报 第一部分 数据分析 研究所 农产品研发报告 2025/12/10 收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 成交量 增减量 持仓量 增减量 5,245 -20 -0.38% 4,616 506 32,159 1518 5,328 -15 -0.28% 121,672 -32633 241,501 -18964 5,225 -22 -0.42% 127,493 24852 349,420 24848 柳州 昆明 武汉 南宁 鲅鱼圈 日照 西安 5480 5340 5740 5430 0 5650 5960 -25 -5 -70 0 0 -50 0 152 12 412 322 632 SR05-SR01 价差 涨跌 SR09-SR05 价差 涨跌 SR09-SR01 价差 涨跌 -103 -7 20 2 -83 -5 国别 ICE主力 升贴水 运费 配额内价格 配额外价格 与柳州价差 与日照价差 与盘面价差 巴西进口 14.77 (0.19) 37.75 3998 5077 403 573.00 251 泰国进口 14.77 0.89 18.00 4046 5141 339 5 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Daily Report dated December 10, 2024, focusing on cotton and cotton yarn [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13780, up 40, with a trading volume of 177,854 hands (an increase of 19801) and an open interest of 474,318 (a decrease of 4249) [2] - CF05 contract closed at 13760, up 35, with a trading volume of 116,043 hands (an increase of 19584) and an open interest of 496,555 (an increase of 27804) [2] - CF09 contract closed at 13900, up 40, with a trading volume of 2,112 hands (a decrease of 243) and an open interest of 15,702 (an increase of 594) [2] - CY01 contract closed at 19840, up 45, with a trading volume of 237 hands (a decrease of 107) and an open interest of 1320 (a decrease of 104) [2] - CY05 contract closed at 19965, up 15, with a trading volume of 8 hands (unchanged) and an open interest of 68 (a decrease of 2) [2] - CY09 contract closed at 20085, unchanged, with no trading volume and an open interest of 9 (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 15004 yuan/ton, down 5; CY IndexC32S was 20800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Cot A was 73.70 cents/pound, compared to the previous 73.95; FCY IndexC33S was 21059 yuan/ton, up 6 [2] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 73.32 cents/pound, down 0.18; Indian S - 6 was 55800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton (compared to the previous 70); pure polyester yarn T32S was 11050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Viscose staple fiber was 12800 yuan/ton, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 month spread was 20, up 5; 5 - 9 month spread was - 140, down 5; 9 - 1 month spread was 120, unchanged [2] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 month spread was - 125, up 30; 5 - 9 month spread was - 120, up 15; 9 - 1 month spread was 245, down 45 [2] - Cross - variety spread: CY01 - CF01 was 6060, up 5; CY05 - CF05 was 6205, down 20; CY09 - CF09 was 6185, down 40 [2] - Domestic - foreign spreads: domestic - foreign cotton spread (1% tariff) was 1895, down 12; domestic - foreign cotton spread (sliding tariff) was 962, unchanged; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 259, down 6 [2] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - According to the USDA's latest December global cotton production and sales forecast, total production was slightly reduced to 2608 million tons, total consumption was slightly reduced to 2582 million tons, and ending stocks increased by 1 million tons to 1654 million tons [4] - The Indian Cotton Association (CAI) reported that as of November 30, 2025, for the 2025/26 cotton balance sheet, compared with last month's assessment, production was increased by 8 million tons, imports were increased by 9 million tons, exports were increased by 2 million tons, and domestic demand was decreased by 9 million tons, resulting in an increase of 23 million tons in ending stocks. Compared with the previous year, beginning stocks increased by 36 million tons, production decreased by 5 million tons, imports increased by 15 million tons, domestic demand decreased by 32 million tons, exports remained flat, and ending stocks increased by 79 million tons [4] - The average temperature in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas (92.9% of production) was 44.31°F, 8.87°F lower than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.84 inches, 0.72 inches higher than the same period last year. In the Texas cotton - producing area, the average temperature was 48.22°F, 9.5°F lower than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.52 inches, 0.51 inches higher than the same period last year. The temperature in the U.S. cotton - producing areas and Texas is decreasing and rainfall is stable. The La Nina climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter is increasing the impact, and it is expected that the subsequent temperature will be lower than the historical average. The cotton - producing areas in the U.S. South are expected to be warmer and drier in winter, which may lead to drought during the sowing season [5] Trading Logic - In terms of fundamentals, with the large - scale listing of new cotton in November, there may be some selling - hedging pressure. On the supply side, although this year's production is a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. On the demand side, as the peak season ends, the market enters a relatively off - season. Overall, with a large amount of new cotton on the market, the new - year production is expected to increase significantly but the increase may be less than expected. The recent order performance on the demand side is average, but the previous negative factors have basically been reflected in the market. The current cotton sales progress is at a high level in the same period over the years. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will mostly fluctuate strongly [6] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected that the future trend of U.S. cotton will mostly be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is average. The combed high - count yarn has a good sales volume, while the inventory of other varieties has slightly increased. Traders and downstream fabric mills still mainly make rigid purchases, and some fabric mills have started year - end replenishment for next year's peak season. The prices were basically stable yesterday. After the recent price increase by spinning mills, there is a certain degree of acceptance from the downstream, but the overall cash - flow situation is still not optimistic, and the operating rate in the inland area has decreased. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream replenishment [9] - The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market remains light. Manufacturers generally believe that there will be no significant improvement in orders in the short term, so they mainly focus on digesting inventory, with the willingness to sell as the main driving force. The sales of high - count and high - density varieties for spring and summer use in previous years are ordinary this year, and fabric mills have a strong willingness to accept orders [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On November 24, 2025, for CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 00 EBE, the increase/decrease rate was 71.0%, IV was 6.7%, Delta was 0.7924, Gamma was 0.0012, Vega was 8.9763, Theta was - 2.5396, the theoretical leverage was 74.2350, and the actual leverage was 58.8238 [11] - For CF601P13000.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 7.00, the increase/decrease rate was - 75.9%, IV was 11.4%, Delta was - 0.0470, Gamma was 200003, Vega was 3.0820, Theta was - 12967, the theoretical leverage was 1,940.7143, and the actual leverage was 912136 [11] - For CF601P12400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13585.00, the closing price was 2.00, the increase/decrease rate was - 83.3%, IV was 17.3%, Delta was - 0.0106, Gamma was 0.0001, Vega was 0.8840, Theta was - 0.5394, the theoretical leverage was 6,7925000, and the actual leverage was 72,0005 [11] Volatility and Strategy - Yesterday, the 10 - day HV of cotton was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 6.7%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [11] - Yesterday, the position PCR of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 0.7339, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6421. Today, the trading volumes of both call and put options have decreased. The option strategy is to wait and see [12][13] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the domestic - foreign cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [15][18][22][23]

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 10 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究所 农产品研发报告 第二部分 市场消息及观点 【苹果市场消息】 【交易逻辑】 今年苹果产量下降，优果率差，保存难度增加，市场预期冷库入库数据大概率偏低。钢联数据 显示，截 至 2025 年 11 月 27 日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量为 766.75 万吨，较上周减少 6.41 万吨，同比去年减少 79.5 万吨。 今年冷库苹果库存高峰处于历年同期低位，且今年苹果质量相对偏差，因此预计 有效库存大概率偏 低，苹果基本面偏强。 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 日 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 1 ...