1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the improvement of macro - sentiment and marginal positive factors in supply and demand, urea prices rebounded from the low level. The short - term price center of urea moved up, and the reference range of the 01 contract was 1600 - 1700. The increase in urea maintenance devices led to a decline in daily output. Agricultural fertilizer demand gradually expanded, the increase in the start - up of compound fertilizers boosted the demand for urea, and the obvious destocking of port inventory alleviated the overall supply pressure [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Changes - Price: On October 24, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1642 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous week, a rise of 1.05%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1565 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from the previous week, a rise of 1.56% [3][6]. - Basis: The main basis of urea weakened. On October 24, the main basis in the Henan market was - 77 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis operating range was (- 93) - (- 65) yuan/ton [3][9]. - Spread: The 1 - 5 spread of urea weakened. On October 24, the 1 - 5 spread was - 77 yuan/ton, and the weekly operating range was (- 77) - (- 70) yuan/ton [3][9]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 78.56%, down 1.67 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 67.76%, down 3.57 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily urea output was 18.26 tons. Next week, the maintenance devices in Shanxi, Shaanxi and other places are expected to resume production, and the domestic urea spot supply is still relatively sufficient [3][11]. Cost - The anthracite lump coal market was mainly stable, and the anthracite slack coal was slightly stronger. As of October 23, the tax - included price of washed small anthracite blocks with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 820 - 900 yuan/ton, with the same closing price center as the previous week [3][15]. Profit - The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was - 7.39%, and that of gas - based urea was - 15.11%. Affected by the rising urea price, the urea gross profit margin rebounded slightly [15]. Demand - The average advance collection of major urea production enterprises was 3.9 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 95.8%. With the progress of autumn harvest and sowing, agricultural demand increased moderately, and off - season storage enterprises made appropriate purchases at low prices, resulting in a marginal improvement in urea production and sales [19]. Industrial Demand - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 27.71%, up 3.53 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 70.44 tons, down 0.47 tons from the previous week. The inventory pressure of domestic compound fertilizers was slightly relieved, and the destocking trend began [23]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 47.44%, down 2.24 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly output was 2.338 tons. With the resumption of production of shutdown and maintenance devices, it is expected that the average operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises will gradually increase to about 60% next week [26]. - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores increased, and the demand support in the panel market was enhanced [27]. Inventory - The inventory of urea enterprises was 143.3 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons from the previous week, with a narrowing increase. The urea port inventory was 37 tons, a decrease of 37 tons from the previous week. There were 5407 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 10.8140 tons, a decrease of 887 from the previous week. October is the centralized cancellation period for urea warehouse receipts [30].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions in copper on dips, buy aluminum on dips after pullbacks, hold a wait-and-see attitude or short nickel on rallies, range trade tin, gold, and silver [1][10][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and PTA are expected to fluctuate; short the 01 contract of soda ash [1][21][23][34] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate strongly; PTA is expected to fluctuate at a low level; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; dates are expected to fluctuate [1][37][38][39] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short pigs on rallies, short eggs on rallies, corn is expected to fluctuate weakly, bean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and oils are expected to have limited corrections [1][40][42][46] Core Views - The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy changes [1][5][7] - It suggests specific trading strategies for each product, such as range trading, buying on dips, or selling call options [1][7][8] - The report also highlights key factors to watch for each product, including macro data, policy changes, and supply and demand dynamics [22][24][25] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and be bullish in the long term. Consider buying on dips [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate. Hold a wait-and-see attitude and pay attention to important financial policies [1][5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Market sentiment is bullish, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to tight supply [6][7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying the RB2601 contract near 3000 [7] - **Glass**: Fundamental conditions are deteriorating, and the market is expected to be weak. Consider selling call options on the 01 contract [8][9] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate higher in the short term. Consider holding a small long position on dips and avoid chasing highs [10] - **Aluminum**: Prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. Consider taking profits on long positions on rallies and pay attention to tariff developments [12] - **Nickel**: Supply is expected to be abundant in the long term. Hold a wait-and-see attitude or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: Prices are expected to fluctuate. Range trade with reference to the 12 contract's range of 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Prices are expected to have support in the medium term but are in a short-term adjustment. Range trade and pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract is temporarily watched in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily watched for resistance at 2450 [23][24] - **Styrene**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch the range of 6300 - 6700 [24][25] - **Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate. Watch for support at 15,000 [26][27] - **Urea**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's range is referenced at 1600 - 1700 [28][29] - **Methanol**: Expected to fluctuate. The 01 contract's operating range is referenced at 2230 - 2330 [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. The L2601 contract is watched for support at 7000, and the PP2601 contract is watched for support at 6600 [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: Adopt a short strategy for the 01 contract [34][35][36] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive factors such as production and trade negotiations [37] - **PTA**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Watch the range of 4400 - 4700 [37][38] - **Apples**: Prices are expected to be strong due to factors such as quality and delivery costs [38] - **Dates**: Expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to price changes after the new season's centralized listing [39] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Prices are under pressure in the medium term. Adopt a short strategy for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts and be cautious about bottom-fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [40][41][42] - **Eggs**: Prices are expected to rebound under pressure. Short on rallies for the 12 and 01 contracts and pay attention to factors such as culling and policies [42] - **Corn**: Expected to fluctuate weakly. Adopt a short strategy for the 11 contract and watch for the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Bean Meal**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level. Consider buying on dips for the M2601 contract and use options to hedge risks [44][45][46] - **Oils**: Expected to have limited corrections. Wait for the correction to end and then go long for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [46][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, the zinc concentrate processing fee has been rising due to the increase in zinc concentrate supply at home and abroad. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has declined after rising, showing a divergence from the import fee. In the fourth quarter, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee may continue to fall, while the import fee may be raised. The refined zinc output is expected to remain high, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee and Zinc Price (1) Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - The zinc concentrate processing fee (TC/RC) is the fee paid by mineral producers or traders to smelters for processing zinc concentrate into refined zinc. Overseas and domestic markets have different ways of determining the processing fee. The rise and fall of the processing fee are affected by factors such as zinc ore production supply, smelting demand, the ratio of Shanghai and London zinc prices, and the profits of mines and smelters [5][6]. (2) The Relationship between Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee and Zinc Price - In the long - term, there is a significant negative relationship between the zinc concentrate processing fee and the zinc price. The change in the processing fee can have an important impact on the zinc price trend [7][10]. II. Analysis of the Trend of Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee (1) Significant Increase in Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - In 2025, both domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees have increased significantly. The reasons are the supply of zinc concentrate turning from tight to relatively loose due to the resumption of production and new capacity release of mines at home and abroad, and the sufficient raw material inventory and strong price - holding sentiment of domestic smelters [11][13][16]. (2) Divergence between Domestic and Imported Zinc Ore Processing Fees - Since the second half of the year, the domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees have shown a significant divergence. The import fee has continued to rise, while the domestic fee has fallen after reaching a high. The reasons are the import loss of zinc concentrate, the preference for domestic zinc ore by smelters, and the expected decrease in domestic zinc ore production in the fourth quarter [18][21]. (3) Outlook on the Trend of Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee in the Fourth Quarter - In the fourth quarter, the supply of zinc concentrate is expected to remain loose, but the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee may continue to fall due to the reduction of supply from northern mines and the winter storage demand of smelters. The import processing fee may be under pressure to adjust [22]. III. Outlook on the Zinc Price Trend in the Fourth Quarter - Currently, the domestic and overseas zinc markets are divided. Domestic refined zinc output is high, and the inventory is increasing, resulting in a weak domestic zinc price. In the fourth quarter, the refined zinc output is expected to remain high, the demand is weak, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly [23][24][26].

长江期货鲜果周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-10-24 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 震荡偏强 目 录 01 苹果：震荡偏强 02 红枣：震荡偏强 01 苹果：震荡偏强 01 周度观点 1 整体观点：本周新季晚富士上货量继续增加，下树进度及入库量较去年同期有所推迟。西部晚富士交易陆续进入中后 期，客商对好货收购积极，一般货源收购相对谨慎，目前西部入库工作陆续开展。山东产区上货量仍显有限，小单车 要货增加，客商收购好货难以足量，入库工作零星开始。销区交易氛围仍显清淡，周内走货不快，需求端承压。新果 上市，价格明显高于去年，价格有望维持强势。（数据来源：上海钢联） 2 风险因素：市场消费情况、宏观政策因素 02 行情回顾 Ø 本周苹果主力震荡调整运行。 Ø 苹果基差23元，较上周+92。 数据来源：博易大师、IFIND、上海钢联、中果网、长江期货 03 苹果批发市场价格走势 04 苹果主产区情况 数据来源：IFIND、上海钢联、中果网、长江期货 Ø 山东产区：目前市场晚富士成交价格来看，85#一二级价 ...

Report Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, the polyolefin market deviated from expectations due to intensified supply - demand imbalance, with prices being low. The market is showing bottom characteristics, but upward pressure is significant. Polyethylene is expected to be stronger than polypropylene, and the LP main contract spread will widen, yet the overall pattern remains weakly oscillating [1][44]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Market Analysis - **Main Contract Trends**: In previous "Golden September and Silver October" periods, polyolefins had a high probability of a bull market. However, in 2025, prices declined instead. By mid - to late October, the LLDPE main contract fell below 6,900 yuan/ton, down over 10% from the beginning of the year, and the PP main contract once reached a low of 6,500 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot Price Trends**: Polyethylene spot prices were structurally differentiated, with LLDPE having the largest annual decline of up to 30.50%. Polypropylene spot prices were also weak, with a maximum decline of over 10% [8]. - **Main Contract Basis Trends**: In 2025, the polyethylene main contract basis showed an inverted N - shaped downward trend, with an annual range of (0, 1200) yuan/ton. The PP basis was relatively stable, with a range of (0, 600) yuan/ton [11]. - **Contract Month - spread Trends**: As of October 17, the polyethylene 1 - 5 contract month - spread was - 33 yuan/ton, stronger than last month but weaker than last year. The polypropylene 1 - 5 contract month - spread was - 52 yuan/ton, weaker than both last month and last year [16]. - **Main Contract Spread Trends**: Since 2025, the LP main contract spread has oscillated between (0, 650) yuan/ton. As of October 17, it was 323 yuan/ton, up from last month but down from last year [19]. 2. Analysis of the Reasons for the Weak Market - **Weak Downstream Demand**: Despite the peak season, the overall downstream polyolefin operating rate only slightly rebounded and was lower than in previous years. The demand - boosting effect of domestic stimulus policies was diminishing, and downstream enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy with weak restocking motivation [20]. - **High Supply Pressure**: In 2025, the polyolefin industry was in a capacity expansion cycle. From January to September, 3.93 million tons of polyethylene and 3.66 million tons of polypropylene were put into production, with more planned for the fourth quarter. Although there were many device overhauls in the second and third quarters, the marginal effect decreased, and supply pressure increased [32]. - **Weak Cost Support**: In the third quarter of 2025, crude oil prices weakened. OPEC+ continued to increase production in October, and the fourth - quarter demand was expected to decline, causing the oil price to drop. Other raw material prices also fell, weakening cost support for polyolefins [37]. - **High Inventory Pressure**: As of October 17, polyethylene and polypropylene inventories were at relatively high levels. The inventory digestion was slow, and with the end of "Golden September and Silver October", demand growth was limited, while supply pressure remained, hindering the de - stocking process [40]. 3. Outlook for the Future - **Price Bottoming with Support**: After continuous price declines, the polyolefin market is showing bottom characteristics. International crude oil prices are at a relatively low level, and production profits are severely squeezed, forcing enterprises to adjust production loads. Also, the market has priced in current negative factors, reducing the downward momentum [45]. - **Weakly Oscillating Market with Upward Pressure**: The polyolefin market is in a key stage of supply - demand re - balance. Due to high supply pressure and weak demand, it will continue to oscillate at the bottom. The LLDPE main contract is expected to oscillate between 7,000 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract between 6,900 - 7,200 yuan/ton, with a strategy of shorting on rallies [46]. - **Differentiated Internal Trends**: Polyethylene is expected to be stronger than polypropylene in the fourth quarter due to less new - capacity pressure and better inventory conditions. The LP main contract spread will widen, presenting arbitrage opportunities [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish and recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; Glass is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; Aluminum is recommended to layout long positions on dips after a pullback; Nickel is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [1][10][17][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are expected to fluctuate; Polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; The 01 contract of soda ash is recommended to take a short - selling approach [1][22][24][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly; Apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1][34][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs are recommended to short on rallies; Eggs are recommended to short on rallies; Corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations; Soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; Oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1][39][44][45] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are affected by supply - demand relationships, some by macro - policies, and others by international trade and geopolitical factors. For example, the PVC market is affected by high supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export prospects; the oil market is influenced by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [23][47][50] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: May fluctuate in the short - term and are long - term bullish. The market trading volume decreased slightly, and different sectors showed different trends. Pay attention to important financial policies after the conference [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Are expected to fluctuate. The outcome of Sino - US negotiations is the key factor affecting market risk appetite [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking**: Supply is expected to gradually recover after the holiday, but the recovery is relatively slow. Jm has multi - allocation value, and the first round of coke price increase has started after the holiday [7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices are low - valued, and the price decline space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long near 3000 for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: After the holiday, the policy expectation has cooled down, and the supply and demand fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro - factors cause large fluctuations, but the fundamentals are relatively stable. It is expected to maintain a high - level strong trend. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has decreased. The demand in the peak season is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to layout long positions on dips [12] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty to the supply. The medium - and long - term supply is in surplus. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude or short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18][19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as the delay of US economic data, government shutdown risk, and interest - rate cut expectation, they are expected to have support. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after a full pullback [19][20][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate, and the 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the range of 4600 - 4800 [22][23] - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is expected to increase. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily concerned about the pressure at 2450 [24][25] - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate. The range of 6300 - 6700 is concerned [26] - **Rubber**: The cost has short - term support, and the supply is expected to increase in the long - term. It is expected to fluctuate, and the support at 15000 is concerned [27][28] - **Urea**: The supply decreases, the agricultural demand increases, and the industrial demand is weak. The inventory is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and the range of 1550 - 1650 is concerned [29] - **Methanol**: The supply increases, the demand from the main downstream is strong, and the inventory is high. It is expected to fluctuate [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: The supply has an increasing expectation, the demand is limited, and the inventory has a pressure to accumulate. The PE and PP main contracts are expected to fluctuate, and the support at 6900 and 6600 is concerned respectively [30][31][32] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in surplus, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The 01 contract is recommended to take a short - selling approach [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand are both expected to increase, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate [34][35] - **PTA**: The oil price is low, the supply - demand is balanced, and the inventory accumulation slows down. It is expected to have range fluctuations, and the range of 4350 - 4600 is concerned [35] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The quality of apples decreases, and the delivery cost is expected to increase; the jujube purchase price is relatively stable. Both are expected to be slightly bullish [36][37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: In the short - term, the price may fluctuate narrowly. In the medium - and long - term, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure. Different contracts have different trading strategies [39][41] - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. In the medium - and long - term, the supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies [42][43] - **Corn**: The new crop is on the market, and the supply is sufficient. The demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43] - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean supply is under pressure, and the domestic supply is improving. It is expected to have range fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to trade relations [44] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as production, export, and supply - demand relationships, the adjustment space is limited. It is recommended to go long after the correction [45][47][50]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggesting holding a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggesting range trading; neutral on glass, suggesting a wait - and - see stance [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Bullish on copper, suggesting buying on dips cautiously without chasing highs; bullish on aluminum, suggesting buying on dips after a pullback; neutral on nickel, suggesting a wait - and - see stance or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggesting range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggesting range trading [1][10][11][12][17][18][19][21] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, suggesting a sideways movement; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, suggesting a short - selling strategy; neutral on polyolefins, suggesting a weak sideways movement [1][22][24][25][27][28][29][30] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggesting a sideways movement; bearish on PTA, suggesting a weak sideways movement; bullish on apples and jujubes, suggesting a slightly bullish sideways movement [1][32][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, suggesting short - selling on rallies; neutral on corn, suggesting a weak sideways movement; neutral on soybean meal, suggesting a low - level sideways movement; bullish on oils, suggesting a limited correction [1][37][40][41][42][43] Core Views - The A - share market is affected by multiple factors. External uncertainties and internal profit - taking needs lead to a sideways movement. The stock indices are supported during important meetings, but there may be a risk of profit - taking after the meetings. The government bond market is affected by economic data and future policy expectations, and a wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] - The black building materials market is affected by supply and demand fundamentals. Coking coal and rebar are expected to trade in a range, while glass is facing weak fundamentals and a wait - and - see stance is recommended [7][8][9] - The non - ferrous metals market is affected by global trade tensions, supply disruptions, and demand expectations. Copper and aluminum are expected to maintain a strong position, while nickel and tin are expected to trade sideways [10][11][12][17][18] - The energy and chemicals market is affected by cost, supply, demand, and macro - policies. Most products are expected to trade sideways, while soda ash 01 contract is expected to decline [22][24][25][30] - The cotton textile industry chain is affected by global supply and demand and Sino - US relations. Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways, while PTA is expected to decline slightly [32][33][34] - The agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by supply and demand fundamentals and seasonal factors. Pigs and eggs are expected to decline, while corn, soybean meal, and oils are expected to trade sideways or have a limited correction [37][40][42][43] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The A - share market is affected by external policy uncertainties and internal profit - taking needs. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term and is bullish in the medium to long term. Buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Government Bonds**: The government bond market is affected by economic data and future policy expectations. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Supply recovery is slow after the National Day holiday. It has multi - allocation value, and range trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price is undervalued, and the demand has recovered while the production has declined slightly. It is expected to trade sideways at a low level, and buying on dips near 3000 for RB2601 is recommended [8] - **Glass**: The market is facing weak fundamentals with rising inventory and weak demand. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is affected by global trade tensions and supply disruptions. It is expected to maintain a high - level sideways movement. Buying on dips cautiously without chasing highs is recommended [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The price is affected by ore prices, production capacity, and demand. It is expected to trade sideways at a high level. Buying on dips after a pullback is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: The supply is expected to be loose in the medium to long term. It is expected to trade sideways. A wait - and - see stance or shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and the demand is weak. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton. Range trading is recommended [18][19] - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are supported by interest - rate cut expectations and safe - haven sentiment. They are expected to trade sideways. Buying after a full correction is recommended [19][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is facing weak fundamentals with high inventory and uncertain export prospects. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 4600 - 4800 [22][23] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is affected by supply and demand and macro - policies. It is expected to trade sideways with a slight downward trend, and the 01 contract should pay attention to the pressure at 2450 [24][25] - **Styrene**: The market is affected by cost and supply - demand imbalance. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 6300 - 6700 [25][26][27] - **Rubber**: The supply provides some support, but the demand is limited. It is expected to trade sideways with a slight upward trend, and pay attention to the support at 15000 [27][28] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is mixed. It is expected to trade sideways at the bottom in the range of 1550 - 1650 [28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is stable. The inventory is high, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [29] - **Polyolefins**: The price is affected by cost, supply, and demand. It is expected to trade sideways with a weak trend. The L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6900, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6600 [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: The market is facing oversupply and weak demand. The 01 contract is recommended to be shorted [30][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and Sino - US relations are uncertain. It is expected to trade sideways [32][33] - **PTA**: The price is affected by oil prices and supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to trade sideways in the range of 4350 - 4600 [33][34] - **Apples**: The quality is declining, and the delivery cost is expected to rise. It is expected to trade sideways with a slightly bullish trend [34][35] - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes are about to be harvested. The market is expected to trade sideways with a slightly bullish trend [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term price increase is limited, and the medium - to long - term supply is high. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [37][38][39] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. Short - selling on rallies for far - month contracts is recommended [40][41] - **Corn**: The new crop is about to be listed, and the supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short - selling on rallies and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage are recommended [40][41][42] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is affected by US soybean harvest and Sino - US trade relations. Buying on dips for the M2601 contract is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The price is affected by palm oil production, soybean supply, and rapeseed import. Buying after a correction is recommended [43][44][45][46][47][48][49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; neutral on glass, recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance [1][7][9] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; neutral on aluminum, recommended to go long on dips after pullbacks; neutral on nickel, recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][11][19] - **Energy Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on polyolefins, recommended for wide-range trading; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, recommended a short-selling strategy [1][21][33] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for range trading; bullish on apples and jujubes, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias [1][34][36] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Bearish on live pigs and eggs, recommended to go short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for wide-range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils and fats, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias [1][38][43] Core Views - The policy level emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the stock market, which boosts market risk appetite. However, there may be a risk of profit-taking after important meetings. The LPR remains unchanged, but there is still a possibility of a cut in the future. The outcome of the Sino-US negotiation at the end of the month will be a key factor determining market risk appetite [5] - The supply of coking coal is expected to gradually recover after the National Day holiday, but the recovery is relatively slow. The first round of coke price increases has started after the holiday, and the demand from steel mills supports the price increase. The price of rebar is expected to oscillate at a low level, with limited room for a sharp decline. The glass market is facing pressure from environmental protection and macro policies, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance [7][9][10] - The global trade situation is tense, but the Chinese copper import situation has boosted market confidence. The copper fundamentals are relatively stable, and the supply-side accidents have a continuous impact. The price of aluminum is expected to remain high, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The supply of nickel is expected to be loose in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies. The supply of tin is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading [11][12][17] - The PVC market is facing weak domestic demand and high inventory, and the export sustainability is questionable. The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment rhythm and export situation. The styrene market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies [21][24][25] - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a period of strong consolidation, supported by the firm overseas raw material prices and the reduction of dark rubber inventory. The urea market is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the compound fertilizer production start-up situation, urea plant production reduction and maintenance situation, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [27][28] - The methanol market is expected to oscillate, with strong support from the main downstream demand. The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand situation, Fed rate cuts, Sino-US trade war impact, Middle East situation, and oil price fluctuations [29][31] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to oscillate, affected by the Sino-US relationship. The PTA market is expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by the weak macro and cost factors. The apple and jujube markets are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias, supported by the high-quality fruit prices and the approaching new season [34][35][36] - The live pig market is under pressure in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to hold short positions with a reduced position size and wait for rallies to add short positions. The egg market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the far-month contracts. The corn market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the main contract and pay attention to the 1-5 reverse spread [38][40][42] - The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by the harvest pressure and slow US soybean exports. The oils and fats market is expected to have limited downward adjustments in the short term, and it is recommended to go long after the adjustment. The palm oil market is facing pressure from inventory accumulation, but there is also support from the upcoming减产 season. The soybean oil market is facing pressure from high inventory, but the supply gap in November has been narrowed. The rapeseed oil market is expected to have a tight supply situation before the re-import of Canadian rapeseed, and the price bottom support remains [43][46][49] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The policy level emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the stock market, which boosts market risk appetite. However, there may be a risk of profit-taking after important meetings. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The LPR remains unchanged, but there is still a possibility of a cut in the future. The outcome of the Sino-US negotiation at the end of the month will be a key factor determining market risk appetite. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The supply is expected to gradually recover after the National Day holiday, but the recovery is relatively slow. The first round of coke price increases has started after the holiday, and the demand from steel mills supports the price increase. It is recommended for range trading [7][8] - **Rebar**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with limited room for a sharp decline. The RB2601 contract is recommended to look for opportunities to go long around 3000 [9] - **Glass**: The market is facing pressure from environmental protection and macro policies, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance and wait for a reversal before considering going long [10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global trade situation is tense, but the Chinese copper import situation has boosted market confidence. The copper fundamentals are relatively stable, and the supply-side accidents have a continuous impact. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to remain high, and it is recommended to go long on dips after pullbacks. The alumina is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options, and the cast aluminum alloy is recommended to go long on dips or go long AD and short AL [12][13][15] - **Nickel**: The supply is expected to be loose in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 11 contract [18] - **Silver and Gold**: The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence. The precious metal prices are expected to be supported by the interest rate cut expectations and risk aversion sentiment. It is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 11,000 - 12,000 for the SHFE silver 12 contract and 935 - 990 for the SHFE gold 12 contract [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is facing weak domestic demand and high inventory, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment rhythm and export situation. The 01 contract is temporarily focusing on the pressure level of 2450 [23][24] - **Styrene**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies. It is temporarily focusing on the pressure level of 6600 [25] - **Rubber**: The market is expected to enter a period of strong consolidation, supported by the firm overseas raw material prices and the reduction of dark rubber inventory. It is temporarily focusing on the support level of 15,000 [26][27] - **Urea**: The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the compound fertilizer production start-up situation, urea plant production reduction and maintenance situation, export policies, and coal price fluctuations. The reference range is 1550 - 1650 [28] - **Methanol**: The market is expected to oscillate, with strong support from the main downstream demand. The inventory is at a high level, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [29][30] - **Polyolefins**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand situation, Fed rate cuts, Sino-US trade war impact, Middle East situation, and oil price fluctuations. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the support level of 6800, and the PP main contract is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the support level of 6500 [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The 01 contract is recommended to adopt a short-selling strategy. The supply is in excess, and the price is expected to decline gradually under the pressure of inventory accumulation [31][33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market is expected to oscillate, affected by the Sino-US relationship. The 2025/26 global cotton production and consumption are both expected to increase, and the ending inventory is expected to decrease [34][35] - **PTA**: The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by the weak macro and cost factors. The supply and demand are in a state of slow inventory accumulation [35] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias, supported by the high-quality fruit prices and the approaching new season [36][37] Agricultural Livestock - **Live Pigs**: The market is under pressure in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to hold short positions with a reduced position size and wait for rallies to add short positions. The 05 - 03 spread arbitrage is recommended to be followed [38][40] - **Eggs**: The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the far-month contracts. It is recommended to pay attention to the chicken culling, weather, chicken diseases, and environmental protection policies [41][42] - **Corn**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the main contract and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy and weather conditions [42] - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by the harvest pressure and slow US soybean exports. It is recommended to pay attention to the Sino-US trade relationship and the procurement of vessels after October [43] - **Oils and Fats**: The market is expected to have limited downward adjustments in the short term, and it is recommended to go long after the adjustment. The palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts are recommended to pay attention to the support levels of 8200 - 8250, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively [43][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the macro - risk is partially reduced but still exists, and the fundamentals of the three major oils are in a state of mixed long and short positions, with short - term prices expected to continue to fluctuate. Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be relatively strong, while rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak but with limited downside space [1][29] - In the medium to long term, palm oil is expected to strengthen after November. Soybean oil prices should be treated with cautious optimism, and the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed is the biggest uncertainty for rapeseed oil [2][30] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Short - term situation**: The MPOB September report was unexpectedly bearish, and October data showed continued production growth and weakened export demand, leading to rising inventory. However, the upcoming traditional减产 season in Southeast Asia in November, uncertainties in Indonesian production, and the progress of the B50 test provide bullish support. It is expected that the price will have limited fluctuations in October and strengthen towards the end of the production season [5][6] - **Malaysian situation**: The September inventory reached a five - year high of 2.36 million tons. The production from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month, and the export growth from October 1 - 20 was lower than that from October 1 - 15. The inventory is expected to rise in October, but the time for further inventory accumulation is limited [6] - **Indonesian situation**: In July, the inventory was relatively low at 2.57 million tons. There are concerns about production decline due to the nationalization of illegal plantations. The B50 biodiesel has completed non - road tests, with an expected demand increase of 3 - 4 million tons of palm oil. The inventory is expected to remain in a tight balance in 2025 [9] - **Domestic situation**: After the National Day holiday, the palm oil inventory rebounded. As of October 17, the inventory was 575,700 tons, and the short - term de - stocking is expected to be limited [11] - **Medium - to - long - term outlook**: Starting from November, the traditional减产 season in Southeast Asia, combined with the B50 news and domestic de - stocking expectations, will help the palm oil price strengthen in the fourth quarter [14] Soybean Oil - **Short - term situation**: The short - term rebound of US soybeans is limited due to uncertain Sino - US trade relations, weak export demand, and lack of other bullish factors. The domestic soybean oil supply is also loose, and the short - term rebound is expected to be limited, with a fluctuating trend [15] - **US soybean situation**: There is a high probability of a decrease in the new - crop yield, and the domestic consumption is strong, but the export is uncertain, and the supply pressure will be large after the harvest. The short - term rebound of the 01 contract is limited, with the upper pressure level at 1050 - 1070 [16] - **South American situation**: As of October 11, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 11.1%, which was relatively fast. Currently, there is no short - term weather risk [20] - **Domestic situation**: The domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories have been at high levels. The soybean arrivals from November to January are expected to be normal, and the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient [22] - **Medium - to - long - term outlook**: There are potential bullish factors, and the medium - to - long - term trend of soybean oil is cautiously optimistic [24] Rapeseed Oil - **Policy impact**: The anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed is the main factor affecting domestic rapeseed oil. Since August, the domestic rapeseed arrivals have significantly decreased. Before November, the supply shortage cannot be solved, and after November, the supply tension may be partially alleviated, but the supply - demand imbalance remains [25][26] - **Policy risk**: There is room for policy softening in Canada. The recent meeting between China and Canada did not have a breakthrough, and the impact on rapeseed oil is limited. Continued attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian relations and processing restrictions on Australian rapeseed [27] Strategy - For the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil, pay attention to the performance in the ranges of 8150 - 8400, 9200 - 9600, and 9800 - 10000 respectively, and it is recommended to adopt the idea of buying on dips [2][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the macro - risk is partially reduced but still exists, waiting for the outcome of the APEC meeting. The fundamentals of the three major oils are in a state of mixed long and short positions, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to fluctuate. Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be relatively strong, while rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak but with limited downside space [1][29]. - In the medium to long term, palm oil is expected to show a strong trend after November. For soybean oil, the price should be treated with cautious optimism. For rapeseed oil, the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed is the biggest uncertainty [2][30]. - For the strategy, focus on the performance of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts in the ranges of 8150 - 8400, 9200 - 9600, and 9800 - 10000 respectively, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips [2][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil - **Short - term situation**: MPOB's September report was unexpectedly bearish, and October's high - frequency data showed continued production growth. The export demand of Malaysian palm oil weakened in the second half of October, causing the inventory to rise. However, the inventory accumulation period is coming to an end, and there are uncertainties in Indonesia's production and the progress of B50 is ahead of schedule, so the price trend in October is expected to have limited fluctuations and strengthen towards the end of the production season [5]. - **Malaysian situation**: MPOB's September report showed that the inventory reached a five - year high of 236000 tons. SPPOMA data indicated a 6.86% increase in production from October 1 - 15. ITS data showed that the export growth rate decreased in the second half of October. The inventory is expected to continue rising in October, but the inventory accumulation time is limited due to the upcoming traditional production - reduction season [6]. - **Indonesian situation**: In July, the inventory was at a relatively low level of 2.57 million tons. There are concerns about production decline due to the takeover of illegal plantations. The B50 biodiesel has completed non - road tests, and the implementation of B50 is expected to increase the demand for palm oil by 3 - 4 million tons. The inventory in 2025 is expected to maintain a tight balance [9]. - **Domestic situation**: Due to pre - National Day stocking, palm oil stocks decreased slightly in September. The estimated arrivals in October and November are 230000 and 190000 tons respectively. After the National Day stocking, the inventory rebounded. As of October 17, the inventory was 575700 tons, and the short - term de - stocking is expected to be limited [11]. - **Medium - to - long - term outlook**: After November, the traditional production - reduction season begins in Southeast Asia. The La Nina phenomenon may intensify the production decline. The B50 - related positive news will continue to be released, and Indonesia may restrict exports. The domestic palm oil purchases after November are relatively low, and the de - stocking power increases during the peak season, which is conducive to the price increase in the fourth quarter [14]. Soybean Oil - **Short - term situation**: The market hopes for an improvement in US soybean export demand due to the upcoming Sino - US leaders' meeting and the USDA's communication with South American countries. However, it is too early to conclude that the Sino - US trade dispute is resolved. The current export demand for US soybeans is still weak, and the domestic soybean and soybean oil supply in China is abundant. The short - term rebound of soybean oil is limited, and the trend is expected to be volatile [15]. - **US soybean situation**: In terms of production, the probability of a decrease in yield is high due to the drought in the main production areas. In terms of demand, the US soybean crushing volume in September reached a record high, but the export progress in the 25/26 season is far behind. The short - term rebound of US soybean 01 contract is limited, with the upper pressure level at 1050 - 1070 [16]. - **South American situation**: As of October 11, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season is relatively fast. Although the La Nina phenomenon exists, there is currently no short - term weather risk in the main production areas [20]. - **Domestic situation**: Since May, China's soybean arrivals have been above 10 million tons for five consecutive months, and the oil mills have maintained a high operating rate. As of October 17, the domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories are at historical highs. The soybean arrivals from November to January are expected to be at normal levels, and the supply in the fourth quarter is not short [22]. - **Medium - to - long - term outlook**: There are potential positive factors such as an improvement in US soybean export demand, the implementation of US bio - fuel policies, a decrease in US soybean production, South American weather speculation, and a supply gap in the first quarter of 2026. The medium - to - long - term trend of soybean oil is cautiously optimistic [24]. Rapeseed Oil - **Policy impact**: The anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed is the main factor affecting the domestic rapeseed oil market. Since August, the import of Canadian rapeseed has been severely restricted, resulting in a significant decline in domestic rapeseed arrivals. The supply shortage before November is difficult to solve, and the supply situation may be partially alleviated after November, but the supply - demand tension remains [25][26]. - **Risk factor**: There is room for policy softening in Canada due to the high inventory and low price of rapeseed. The Canadian foreign minister's visit to China did not bring a breakthrough, and the short - term import of Canadian rapeseed remains restricted. The follow - up situation depends on the development of Sino - Canadian relations and the relaxation of processing restrictions on Australian rapeseed [27].