Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased by $0.7 per dry ton to $74.2 per dry ton week - on - week. The alumina operating capacity increased by 600,000 tons to 98.55 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 78,000 tons to 3.797 million tons. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased steadily by 10,000 tons to 44.439 million tons. The domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises' operating rate rose by 0.8% to 63%. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased significantly, and the orders of large recycled cast aluminum alloy enterprises increased steadily. Macroscopically, the Fed cut interest rates as expected, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in China. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [4]. - For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for alumina, go long on dips for Shanghai aluminum, and go long on dips or adopt the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL for cast aluminum alloy [5]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Economic Indicators - The report presents graphs of the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year Treasury yield, real yield, inflation expectation, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [7][8]. 2. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the prices in Shanxi and Henan are stable. Due to strengthened safety production supervision, environmental inspections, and the rainy season, bauxite mining activities are restricted. Since mid - August, alumina plants have increasingly used imported ore. - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased by $0.7 per dry ton to $74.2 per dry ton week - on - week. The long - term order quotes of large Guinean mining enterprises in the fourth quarter were slightly adjusted, with the FOB price reduced by $1 per dry ton compared to the third quarter. The estimated CIF price is around $73 per dry ton [11]. 3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina's built - in capacity remained unchanged at 114.62 million tons week - on - week, the operating capacity increased by 600,000 tons to 98.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 85.9%. - The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 2,963 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47.2 yuan per ton. - The national alumina inventory was 3.797 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 78,000 tons. Newly put - into - production capacities in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north are gradually reaching stable production. Some southern enterprises have completed maintenance, and a Henan enterprise's partial roasting furnace will resume normal operation on October 5 [14]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 45.232 million tons week - on - week, and the operating capacity increased by 10,000 tons to 44.439 million tons. The remaining capacity of Baise Yinhai's technological transformation project continued to resume production [21]. 5. Inventory - The report shows the historical inventory data of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, SHFE aluminum futures, and LME aluminum from 2021 to 2025 [28][29][30][31]. 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.7% to 56.6% week - on - week. - Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to clean up local governments' illegal tax rebate policies. - The orders of large recycled aluminum enterprises increased steadily, driving up the operating rate. Typhoons affected production and transportation, but they have gradually returned to normal. During the National Day holiday, the production arrangements of the recycled aluminum industry are diversified, and the overall operating rate is expected to decline [34]. 7. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises increased by 0.8% to 63% week - on - week [42]. - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises remained stable at 54.6% week - on - week. The orders of photovoltaic profile enterprises are limited to the end of September, and the orders of automotive profile enterprises are improving, but the processing fees are decreasing. The construction profile market is sluggish [47]. - Aluminum strips: The operating rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises increased by 0.8% to 69% week - on - week. Some enterprises increased production after the aluminum price bottomed out. Typhoons affected production in the Pearl River Delta, but production has resumed. Leading enterprises will maintain normal production during the National Day, while small and medium - sized enterprises will slow down [47]. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of domestic leading cable enterprises increased by 1.8% to 67% week - on - week. The State Grid's tender for 130,000 tons of aluminum conductors has been launched, and the orders for the fourth quarter and next year are guaranteed. Leading enterprises are stocking up before the National Day, mainly for rigid demand [52]. - Primary aluminum alloy: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 1% to 58.4% week - on - week. Some enterprises increased inventory after the aluminum price bottomed out. Most enterprises will maintain normal production during the National Day, but the production rhythm may slow down slightly [52].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday; bullish on aluminum, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on nickel, recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][18][19] - **Energy and chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefin, recommended for range trading; recommended for shorting 01 contract and longing 05 contract in soda ash [1][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for narrow - range trading; bullish on apples, recommended for range - bound and upward trading; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range - bound and downward trading [1][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and livestock**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for weak - range trading; bullish on oils, recommended for bottom - building and slight rebound trading [1][37][39][40][42][43] Core Views - Affected by the weakening of the external market and the pre - holiday effect, the A - share market is cautious, with significant structural differentiation. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term and are bullish in the long term. Treasury bonds are recommended to be observed due to potential long - term downward pressure [5] - The black building materials market is mixed. The coal market is active, while rebar is affected by weak industry and strong macro factors. Glass is expected to be supported by demand in October and is recommended to be bought on dips [7][8] - Non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disruptions and macro policies. Copper is expected to be high - range volatile, aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [10][11][17][18][19] - In the energy and chemical sector, most products are expected to oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost fluctuations, and policy uncertainties. Soda ash is recommended for a specific arbitrage strategy [20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - The cotton textile industry chain shows different trends. Cotton and cotton yarn are affected by supply - demand changes, PTA is affected by cost and supply - demand games, apples are expected to be strong, and jujubes are expected to be weak [33][34][35] - In the agriculture and livestock sector, pigs and eggs are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. Corn is expected to oscillate, soybean meal is expected to be weak, and oils are expected to rebound slightly [37][39][40][42][43] Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the short term, the A - share market is affected by external and pre - holiday factors, with active large - tech sectors and weak small - cap stocks. In the long term, it is bullish, and buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Friday, the long - term downward pressure remains. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the end - of - month data [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is active due to factors such as production reduction and price increases. It is recommended for range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price dropped last Friday. It is currently undervalued, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be supported by demand in October. Buying on dips is recommended [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the mine accident in Grasberg, the copper price is expected to be high - range volatile. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure, while the electrolytic aluminum demand is in the peak season. Buying on dips is recommended [12][13] - **Nickel**: The nickel supply is in an oversupply situation in the long term. Shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The tin supply is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. Range trading is recommended [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US economic data and Fed policy expectations, range trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 4850 - 5050 range [20][21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 2450 - 2650 range [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weak - range volatile, and the 6700 - 7100 range is recommended [25] - **Rubber**: The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday replenishment is completed. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 15500 level is recommended as the support [25] - **Urea**: The supply increases, and the demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 contract's 1600 - 1630 support [26][27] - **Methanol**: The supply recovers, and the demand increases. It is expected to be strong - range volatile, and the 2330 - 2450 range is recommended [27] - **Polyolefin**: The demand recovers, and the supply increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the range, and the LL and PP contracts are recommended to focus on the 7200 - 7500 and 6900 - 7200 ranges respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract due to the expected supply increase [31][32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and the future price may face pressure. Range trading is recommended [33] - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to be narrow - range volatile [33][34] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to be strong - range volatile [34] - **Jujubes**: The market is light, and it is expected to rebound in a range [35] Agriculture and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 05 - 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and shorting on rallies is recommended. The 12 and 01 contracts are recommended to be observed [39] - **Corn**: The new crop supply eases the tight supply situation. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak - range volatile. Holding long positions on dips is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The palm oil and soybean oil fundamentals have some support, and the rapeseed oil supply has a gap. It is expected to rebound slightly, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunities [43][44][45][46][47][48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton outlook: The current spot market is tight, but as new cotton is about to be listed, market tension will ease. Despite the USDA's report raising global consumption, macro - economic data shows no significant improvement. With global production increasing, supply - demand is balanced. New cotton will flood the market in October, bringing significant pressure and potential price fluctuations [69]. - Yarn outlook: The yarn market follows cotton prices. Due to intense industry competition and declining exports, future pressure is expected to be high [69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 9 - month Market Review - In September, Zhengzhou cotton and yarn prices fluctuated weakly. The approaching new cotton listing and less - than - expected "Golden September and Silver October" conditions led to market pressure. The spot market was tight, but the market was trading on future expectations. Yarn followed cotton, with over - capacity compressing spinning profits, and more pressure expected with further expansion in Xinjiang [5][8]. 3.2 Supply - side Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 2562.2 million tons (up 23 million tons, 0.9% month - on - month), consumption 2587.2 million tons (up 18.4 million tons, 0.7% month - on - month), imports 951.6 million tons (up 2.7 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), exports 951.5 million tons (up 2.5 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), and ending stocks 1592.5 million tons (down 16.8 million tons, 1.0% month - on - month). In 2024/25, production and consumption are expected to increase, with ending stocks decreasing [14]. - **US Cotton**: In September 2025, the US cotton planting and harvest areas decreased, and the national abandonment rate increased month - on - month. The signing and export of US upland cotton were slow. As of September 18, 2025, the US had a cumulative net signed export of 94.7 million tons of 2025/26 cotton, reaching 36.22% of the expected annual export, with a shipment rate of 23.23% [15][20]. - **Indian Cotton**: In the 2024/25 season, India's cotton production is expected to be 531.1 million tons (up 1.7 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), imports 69.7 million tons (up 3.4 million tons, 5.1% month - on - month). Consumption and exports are stable. Ending stocks increased by 5.1 million tons to 103 million tons (up 5.2% month - on - month) [22]. - **Brazilian Cotton**: In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to increase to 2.086 million hectares (about 31.29 million mu), a 7.3% year - on - year increase. The national yield per mu is expected to decrease to 125.8 kg/mu, a 0.9% year - on - year decrease. Total production is expected to reach 3.935 million tons, a 6.3% year - on - year increase. In 2024/25, Brazil exported 2.835 million tons of cotton, a 5.8% year - on - year increase, earning about $4.85 billion [25]. - **Domestic Cotton**: In the 2025/26 season, China's total supply increased by 41 million tons to 14.95 million tons. Total demand increased by 12 million tons to 8.42 million tons. Ending stocks increased by 29 million tons to 6.53 million tons. As of the end of August, commercial and industrial cotton inventories decreased significantly. In August, cotton and yarn imports showed different trends [27][31][36]. 3.3 Demand - side Analysis - **Domestic Demand**: In August 2025, China's social consumer goods retail sales reached 396.68 billion yuan, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the total was 3.23906 trillion yuan, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. Clothing, footwear, and textile retail sales in August were 104.5 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year increase [43]. - **External Demand**: In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $26.766 billion, a 0.06% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, exports were $170.741 billion, a 0.63% year - on - year increase [46]. - **Textile Industry Inventory**: In July, the textile industry's inventory was 402.01 billion yuan, a 0.12% month - on - month increase. Textile and clothing inventory was 189.91 billion yuan, a 1.03% month - on - month increase [48]. - **US Retail and Inventory**: In July 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales were $26.908 billion, a 6.44% year - on - year increase. In June, retailer inventory was $58.349 billion, a 1.37% year - on - year increase, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 2.20 [56]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: The spot market for pure - cotton yarn had average trading, with prices following Zhengzhou cotton down. Spinning mills continued to reduce inventory slightly, and the operating rate was stable. The all - cotton grey fabric weaving factories mainly had small - batch orders, with limited growth, and the operating rate changed little [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry is expected to run with a slight upward trend [3] Core Viewpoints - In September, the apple futures generally showed a strong performance, while the jujube prices first declined and then rebounded, but overall there was a drop [6] - The downstream consumption is slowly recovering, and the consumer spending ability is steadily increasing, but the price level is under relatively large pressure [11][13][14] - The apple market is in the game stage of the new season's listing, and the futures price is expected to remain within a certain range [43] - The jujube price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the continuous reduction of spot inventory [59] Summary by Directory 1. 9 - Month Fresh Fruit Price Trend - In September, apple futures generally ran strongly, attempting to break through the pressure level of 8,500 yuan/ton; jujube prices first declined and then rebounded, but overall there was a drop [6] 2. Macro - Analysis: Slow Improvement in Consumption - **Downstream Consumption**: In August 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods were 3,966.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The real growth after deducting price factors was 4.1%. From January to August, the cumulative total was 32,390.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The retail sales of goods were 3,517.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, and the catering revenue was 449.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [13] - **Price Level**: In August 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.9% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the price of fresh fruits changed from a 2.8% increase in July to a 3.7% decrease [16] - **Fruit Prices**: As of the 38th week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 6.81 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.13 yuan/kg compared with the 37th week. Among them, the prices of watermelon and pineapple increased, while those of banana, Kyoho grape, Ya pear, and Fuji apple decreased [18] 3. Apple Price Outlook: Game of Listing Unfolds - **Wholesale Market Price**: As of September 19, 2025, the wholesale price of all varieties of apples was 9.78 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous month; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous month. Recently, the spot price of Fuji apples has been fluctuating [24] - **Main Apple - Producing Areas**: In Shandong, the prices of different grades of apples vary, and the early - maturing varieties are being traded. In Shaanxi, the early - maturing Fuji trading is in the later stage, and some new varieties are on the market [30] - **Cold Storage Situation**: As of September 17, 2025, the inventory of apple cold storage in the main producing areas was 163,200 tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory turnover in Shandong has slowed down [32] - **Sales Area Market**: In the South China market, the number of trucks arriving at the market has slightly increased. The market is mainly stocked with Fuji apples, and the overall sales are average [36] - **Apple Storage Profit**: In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia was 0.3 yuan/jin, the same as the previous week [39] - **Market Outlook**: The supply of early - maturing apples has increased recently, and the price has declined, weakening the support for futures prices. The main logic of the apple market is the expected difference in the new season's realization. The futures price is expected to remain within a certain range [43] 4. Jujube Outlook: High - Level Price Fluctuation - **Spot Price**: The prices of different grades of jujubes in Hebei, Henan, and Guangzhou markets vary according to origin and quality [49] - **Inventory Data**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9,203 tons, a decrease of 44 tons compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 84.80%. The inventory has slightly decreased [51] - **Sales Area Market Profit**: The average purchase price of grey jujubes in Xinjiang's main producing area was 5.33 yuan/kg (2024 production season), and the gross profit in the Hebei sales area was 2.36 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [55] - **Market Outlook**: Driven by the continuous reduction of spot inventory, the spot price has seasonally rebounded. The jujube price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [59]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and buy on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Wait or buy on dips for copper, buy on dips after pullbacks for aluminum, wait or short on rallies for nickel, conduct range trading for tin, silver, and gold [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][20][22][24] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to fluctuate; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][41][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, supply disruptions and macro - economic uncertainties affect prices; in the energy and chemicals sector, factors like production capacity, demand, and cost determine the market trends [10][20][33] Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: A - share market showed differentiation on Thursday. Growth sectors were relatively strong. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and is long - term bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The interest - rate bond market had wide - range fluctuations on Thursday. After a panic - driven sell - off, it may enter a short - term bottom - building phase. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal and coking**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a price increase in the coal industry. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price had narrow - range fluctuations on Thursday. The short - term situation is a combination of weak industry fundamentals and strong macro - factors. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the RB2601 contract focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increase of glass manufacturers has stimulated the market. Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the 01 contract focusing on the 1160 - 1200 support level [8] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disruptions and the approaching holiday stocking period may support copper prices. It is recommended to wait or buy on dips for short - term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. Demand is entering the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips after pullbacks and consider a short AD and long AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16] - **Tin**: Supply improvement is limited, and downstream consumption is warming up. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the SHFE tin 10 - contract focusing on the 26.5 - 28 million yuan/ton range [16] - **Silver and gold**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to have support. It is recommended to conduct range trading [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic soda**: Considering downstream restocking and future alumina production expectations, it is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: Weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: Affected by factors such as typhoons and pre - holiday sentiment, it is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation, focusing on the 15500 support level [26] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, and agricultural demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract's 1600 - 1630 support level and the 1 - 5 spread positive - arbitrage opportunity [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is decreasing, and demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand are both changing. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28] - **Soda ash**: Affected by glass price increases and production capacity changes, it is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing. The spot market is strong, but there is downward pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: Affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and supply - demand changes, it is expected to have range fluctuations, focusing on the 4550 - 4800 range [33] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [35] - **Jujubes**: The market is currently quiet. It is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation and then a rebound [35] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply is large, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, and be cautious when bottom - fishing for the 05 and 07 contracts. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: Short - term pre - holiday demand is weakening, and long - term supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and be cautious when shorting the 12 and 01 contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: New crop supply will ease the tight supply of old crops. It is recommended to take a short - side approach, wait for a rebound to short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse - arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean meal**: Supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold on dips, focusing on the 2900 support level of the M2601 contract [43] - **Oils**: After the tariff event's negative impact is over, oils are expected to stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to take a long - on - dips approach and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [44][50]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards government bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and go long on glass at low prices [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Wait and see or go long on copper at low prices for short-term trading; wait for a pullback to go long on aluminum; wait and see or go short on nickel at high prices; conduct range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide-range fluctuations [1][20][22][24][28][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate within a range; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Go short on pigs and eggs at high prices; corn is expected to have wide-range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][40][41][43][45] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products across different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macroeconomic policies, and international events to assess the market trends of each product and offer corresponding trading suggestions. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high on Wednesday. Driven by multiple positive news in the chip industry, the technology growth sector rebounded strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the long term [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market continued its downward trend on Wednesday, with the focus of the decline shifting from active bonds to non-active bonds and credit bonds. It is advisable to maintain a wait-and-see attitude due to potential negative feedback from selling and redemptions [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices have risen across the board, and the sales of surrounding coal yards are active. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price fluctuated on Wednesday. The static valuation has slightly increased, but the demand is still weak year-on-year. It is advisable to go long on dips, focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The spot prices of major glass manufacturers have increased, and the market sentiment has improved. The fundamentals are neither good nor bad, with weak support from demand in the peak season and potential positive factors from macro news and environmental policies. It is recommended to maintain a long position in the 01 contract [8] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper mine supply has been disrupted, and the consumption is expected to gradually recover during the pre-holiday stocking period. The copper price is expected to remain high before the holiday, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices for short-term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite has declined, while the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has increased. The demand has entered the peak season, but the inventory is still accumulating. It is recommended to go long at low prices and consider a long AD and short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore remains firm, while the refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. The price of nickel iron has slowed down, and the stainless steel price is weak. It is recommended to go short moderately at high prices [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. The tin price is expected to be supported, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the 26.5 - 280,000 yuan/ton range for the Shanghai Tin 10 contract [16] - **Silver and Gold**: The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the market expects further rate cuts. The prices of silver and gold are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the 9800 - 10500 range for the Shanghai Silver 12 contract and the 820 - 855 range for the Shanghai Gold 12 contract [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high, and the export sustainability is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic Soda**: The macro outlook is positive, but the weak reality is suppressing the market. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The cost and supply are under pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, temporarily focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: The raw material price is firm, and the downstream demand is stable. However, the market is affected by pre-holiday risk aversion and potential reserve releases. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 15500 level as the support [26] - **Urea**: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 1600 - 1630 for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens further [27] - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased, and the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry has increased. The inventory is high, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyethylene has increased, while the supply of polypropylene has decreased. The demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the low range, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is still weak, but the futures price has risen due to the increase in glass prices. It is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation has improved, but the new cotton production is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: The international oil price has risen, and the supply and demand are expected to decrease. It is expected to fluctuate within the 4550 - 4800 range [33][34] - **Apples**: The prices of early-maturing apples are firm, and the late Fuji apples are starting to be bagged. It is expected to maintain a strong trend [35] - **Jujubes**: The Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar-accumulating stage, and the consumption is weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The pig price is under pressure due to the increase in supply and the high weight. It is recommended to take profit on short positions in the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, go short on rebounds, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short-term pre-holiday demand is weakening, and the long-term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to go short at high prices or hold put options, and be cautious about shorting in the 12 and 01 contracts in the short term [39][40] - **Corn**: The new corn supply will ease the tight supply of the old corn. It is recommended to take a bearish view, wait for a rebound to go short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is under pressure in the short term due to the cancellation of Argentina's export tariffs, but the downside space is limited due to the low US soybean stock-to-use ratio and cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 2930 for the M2601 contract [43][44][45] - **Oils**: The market is expected to bottom out and rebound slightly after digesting the impact of Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, control positions, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities for rapeseed oil 11 - 1, 1 - 5, and the rapeseed - palm oil price spread [45][47][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long - term for stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, buy on dips for glass [1][8][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Wait - and - see or buy on dips for copper, suggest buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum, suggest waiting or shorting on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][12][18][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate; conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting 01 and going long on 05 for soda ash [1][23][34] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate, PTA is expected to oscillate weakly, apples are expected to oscillate strongly, and jujubes are expected to oscillate weakly [1][36][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs, wide - range oscillation for corn, range oscillation for soybean meal, and oscillation with an upward bias for oils [1][39][46][53] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, macro - economic conditions, policy changes, and seasonal factors. Overall, the market for different futures products shows a complex situation with both opportunities and risks, and investors need to make decisions based on specific product characteristics and market trends [1][5][8] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Oscillating in the short - term, bullish on the medium to long - term, buy on dips. Affected by pre - holiday capital demands, A - shares fluctuated widely. The Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showed slight declines, while the ChiNext Index rose. Pay attention to whether the micro - cap stock index can regain stability on the 20 - day line [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude. The bond market had a slight pullback. Open - market operations affected liquidity expectations, and the future trend of treasury bond futures needs further observation [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillating. Multiple factors drove up market sentiment, with coal prices rising across the board, including pit - mouth, port, and purchased coal prices [8] - **Rebar**: Oscillating. The futures price of rebar oscillated weakly. The market sentiment weakened slightly, and the short - term focus is on the demand in October [8] - **Glass**: Buy on dips. The fundamentals of glass are stable. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand has a certain degree of support. The market is speculating on supply - side shutdown expectations and seasonal and macro - economic factors [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. The price of copper fluctuated after a rapid rise. The high price suppressed demand, and the market is affected by factors such as Fed's interest - rate policy, domestic economic data, and seasonal consumption [12][13] - **Aluminum**: Neutral. The price of aluminum showed a neutral trend. The price of bauxite decreased slightly, and the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased steadily. The demand entered the peak season, and it is recommended to buy on dips [13] - **Nickel**: Neutral. The fundamentals of nickel changed little in the short - term, affected by macro and mine - end news. In the long - term, the supply is in surplus. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [18] - **Tin**: Neutral. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is picking up. It is recommended to conduct range trading [18][19] - **Silver and Gold**: Neutral. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, precious metals showed a strong - side oscillation. Affected by US economic data and trade negotiations, it is recommended to conduct range trading [19][20][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Oscillating. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market and exports. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [23] - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillating. The upstream inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand is expected to increase marginally. It is expected to oscillate before the National Day [26] - **Styrene**: Oscillating. The cost is affected by oil prices and pure - benzene supply, and the demand is limited during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [27] - **Rubber**: Oscillating. Affected by typhoons and weak overseas buying, the raw - material price has limited upward momentum. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the price is expected to decline [29][30] - **Urea**: Oscillating. The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the compound - fertilizer market has slightly improved. The inventory has been accumulating, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the 01 contract [30] - **Methanol**: Oscillating. The supply in the mainland has recovered, the traditional demand is stable, and the demand from methanol - to - olefins has declined. The port inventory is at a high level, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [31] - **Polyolefins**: Oscillating. The downstream demand has improved during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The inventory has been decreasing, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [32] - **Soda Ash**: Short 01 and go long on 05 for arbitrage. The downstream pre - holiday replenishment is active, but the production has increased. The supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to conduct the arbitrage strategy [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillating. The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, but the new - cotton output is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [36] - **PTA**: Oscillating weakly. Affected by concerns about OPEC+ production increases, the oil price has declined. The supply and demand are in a state of accumulation, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36][37] - **Apples**: Oscillating strongly. Affected by weather conditions, the price of early - maturing apples is firm, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [37] - **Jujubes**: Oscillating weakly. The consumption is weak, and the price is under pressure after reaching a high level, with an expected weak - side oscillation [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Under pressure. Affected by factors such as supply increases and policy support, the short - term price may have a limited rebound, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of long 05 and short 03 [39][40] - **Eggs**: Resistance to rebound. The short - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve significantly, and the demand is gradually weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and be cautious about shorting the 12 and 01 contracts in the short - term [42] - **Corn**: Range - oscillating. The new - crop supply will ease the tight supply of old - crop corn. It is recommended to take a short - side approach for the 11 contract and pay attention to the new - crop listing rhythm [45] - **Soybean Meal**: Weakly oscillating. Affected by Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs, the price is under pressure in the short - term, but there is cost support. The domestic supply is abundant from September to October, and the price is expected to be weak [46][48] - **Oils**: Adjusting. Affected by Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs, the oil price has回调. However, there is still support at the bottom. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the stock index (centered on the Shanghai Composite Index) will consolidate in the short term and show a clear upward trend in the long term. Attention should be paid to the traction of structural forces on the index weights [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Press Conference Core Points: Policy Signals from "Achievement Summary" to "Reform Deepening" (1) Five - year Report Card of "Stable Quantity and Improved Quality" in the Capital Market - **Mature institutional system**: With the new Securities Law as the core, relevant regulations have been implemented, and the legal foundation for the capital market has been solidified [2]. - **Deepened multi - level market**: Reforms in the Sci - tech Innovation Board, ChiNext, and the high - quality expansion of the Beijing Stock Exchange have improved the multi - level market system, with 964 futures and options varieties covering major industries [2]. - **Coordinated investment and financing functions**: In the past five years, equity and bond financing totaled 57.5 trillion yuan, and the direct financing ratio increased to 31.6%. Over 90% of newly listed companies are technology - related, and the market value of the technology sector in A - shares exceeds 1/4 [2]. - **Enhanced market resilience**: The annualized volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index dropped to 15.9%, and the total market value of A - shares increased by 10 trillion yuan in the past year [4]. - **Effective supervision**: Fines for illegal activities increased by 30% compared to the "13th Five - Year Plan", and regulatory measures such as delisting and mergers have maintained market order [4]. (2) Expansion of the "Circle of Friends" in Reform and Opening - up: Full - chain Breakthroughs from the Financing End to the Investment End - **Investment end**: By the end of the month, long - term funds held 21.4 trillion yuan of A - share floating market value, a 32% increase from the end of the "13th Five - Year Plan" [5]. - **Financing end**: The registration system has been fully implemented, and reforms on the Sci - tech Innovation Board have improved resource allocation efficiency [5]. - **Quality of listed companies**: Dual - wheel drive of information disclosure and governance, and active mergers and acquisitions have improved the overall quality of listed companies [5]. - **Open end**: Foreign ownership restrictions have been lifted, and the internationalization of the capital market has increased, with foreign investors holding 3.4 trillion yuan of A - share market value [5]. (3) Current Policy Tone The regulatory authorities focus on "long - term healthy and stable" development, emphasizing zero - tolerance for violations and leaving room for subsequent policies, which helps stabilize market expectations [7]. 2. Market Reaction and Short - term Logic - **Policy expectation shift**: The market is expected to enter a consolidation phase as there is no strong stimulus, and the index is at a relatively high level [9]. - **Technology and high - end manufacturing as the main lines**: The market has responded to policies supporting technology, making the technology sector a core area for long - term capital allocation [10]. - **Limited short - term incremental funds**: Long - term funds prefer to "buy on dips", and short - term incremental funds mainly come from portfolio rebalancing [11]. 3. Long - term Outlook - **Resilient economic fundamentals**: New economic drivers such as high - tech manufacturing will improve corporate profitability and support the stock index [13]. - **Adequate policy tools**: The regulatory authorities have a mechanism to stabilize the market, and global liquidity improvement will enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets [14]. - **Deepened capital market reform**: The capital market's "market - oriented, legal, and international" level has been improved, and foreign investors' willingness to allocate A - shares will increase [15]. 4. Overall Judgment - **Short - term**: The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to consolidate around 3800 points, with a fluctuation range of 3700 - 3900 points [17]. - **Long - term**: Driven by economic fundamentals, policies, and reforms, the stock index has an upward trend [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on the medium to long term for stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on government bonds, recommended to hold [1][5] - Black building materials: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][10] - Non-ferrous metals: Neutral on copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, recommended for range trading or cautious long positions [1][12][19] - Energy and chemicals: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, recommended for range trading; recommended for short 01 and long 05 arbitrage on soda ash [1][22][34] - Cotton textile industry chain: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; bearish on PTA, recommended for range trading with a downward bias; neutral on apples, recommended for range trading with an upward bias; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range trading with a downward bias [1][36][37] - Agricultural and livestock: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to sell on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; bearish on soybean meal, recommended for range trading with a downward bias; bullish on oils, recommended to buy after the correction [1][40][53] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the medium to long term, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable. The bond market is gradually recovering, and market sentiment is stabilizing [5] - The black building materials market is affected by factors such as coal prices and policy expectations. The non-ferrous metals market is influenced by macro factors and supply and demand. The energy and chemicals market is facing challenges such as high inventory and weak demand [8][12][23] - The cotton textile industry chain is affected by factors such as global supply and demand and policy changes. The agricultural and livestock market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and policy support [36][40] Summaries by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices: A-shares showed a shrinking consolidation trend on Monday, with technology growth sectors performing relatively well. The market is expected to continue its upward trend in the medium to long term, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable. Recommended to buy on dips [5] - Government bonds: The market sentiment continued to improve on Monday, and the yields of government bonds at all maturities fell from previous highs. The central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase operation, injecting positive sentiment into the bond market. Recommended to hold [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market is experiencing a "Golden September" market, with prices rising across the board. The supply of coking coal is affected by factors such as mine maintenance and production cuts. Recommended for range trading [8] - Rebar: The futures price of rebar showed a slightly stronger trend on Monday. The valuation of rebar has slightly increased, and the macro policy and industrial demand are the main driving factors. Recommended for range trading [8] - Glass: The fundamentals of glass are stable, and the market is affected by factors such as coal prices and seasonal demand. The supply of glass is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. Recommended to buy on dips [10] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The price of copper showed a high-level consolidation trend this week. The demand for copper is affected by high prices, and the supply is affected by factors such as smelter maintenance and imports. The macro factors are expected to have a significant impact on the price of copper. Recommended for range trading [12] - Aluminum: The price of aluminum is expected to continue its high-level consolidation trend. The supply of aluminum is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. Recommended for range trading [13] - Nickel: The price of nickel is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of nickel is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as stainless steel production and battery manufacturing. Recommended to sell on rallies [18] - Tin: The price of tin is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of tin is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as semiconductor production and solder manufacturing. Recommended for range trading [18] - Gold and silver: The prices of gold and silver are expected to continue their range-bound trends. The prices of precious metals are affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate policy and geopolitical risks. Recommended for range trading [19][21] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The price of PVC is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of PVC is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as real estate and exports. Recommended for range trading [23] - Caustic soda: The price of caustic soda is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of caustic soda is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as alumina production and exports. Recommended for range trading [26] - Styrene: The price of styrene is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of styrene is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as downstream consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [27] - Rubber: The price of rubber is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of rubber is affected by factors such as weather and production cuts, and the demand is affected by factors such as tire production and exports. Recommended for range trading [29] - Urea: The price of urea is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of urea is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as agriculture and exports. Recommended for range trading [30] - Methanol: The price of methanol is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of methanol is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as downstream consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [31] - Polyolefins: The prices of polyethylene and polypropylene are expected to continue their range-bound trends. The supply of polyolefins is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as downstream consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading [32] - Soda ash: The price of soda ash is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of soda ash is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as glass production and exports. Recommended for short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The prices of cotton and cotton yarn are expected to continue their range-bound trends. The global supply and demand of cotton are improving, but the new cotton production is expected to increase, putting pressure on prices. Recommended for range trading [36] - PTA: The price of PTA is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of PTA is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as polyester production and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [36] - Apples: The price of apples is expected to continue its upward trend. The supply of apples is affected by factors such as weather and production cuts, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with an upward bias [37] - Jujubes: The price of jujubes is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of jujubes is affected by factors such as weather and production cuts, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The price of pigs is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of pigs is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended to sell on rallies [40] - Eggs: The price of eggs is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of eggs is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended to sell on rallies [42] - Corn: The price of corn is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of corn is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as feed consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading [44] - Soybean meal: The price of soybean meal is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of soybean meal is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as feed consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [45] - Oils: The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to continue their downward trends. The supply of oils is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended to buy after the correction [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market is experiencing intense supply - demand competition and is expected to trade in a range. The LL main contract is expected to oscillate between 7200 - 7500, and the PP main contract between 6900 - 7200, with the LP spread expected to widen [5]. - The plastics market has alleviated supply - demand contradictions and has strong bottom support [7]. - The PP market faces significant long - term pressure and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Polyolefin Market - **Market Changes**: On September 19, the L main contract closed at 7169 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract at 6914 yuan/ton, with an LP spread of 255 yuan/ton. LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE prices showed slight declines. LLDPE South China basis and PP basis both contracted, while their 9 - 1 month spreads widened [5]. - **Fundamental Changes** - **Supply**: China's polyethylene production start - up rate was 80.36%, up 2.32 percentage points, with a weekly output of 63.10 tons, up 2.97%. The PP petrochemical enterprise start - up rate was 74.90%, down 1.93 percentage points. PP pellet output decreased by 2.51% weekly, while PP powder output increased by 2.44% [5]. - **Demand**: The overall domestic agricultural film start - up rate was 26.75%, up 2.63%. The average downstream start - up rate was 51.45%, up 0.59 [5]. - **Inventory**: Plastic enterprise social inventory was 54.66 tons, down 1.37 tons, or 2.45%. Polypropylene domestic inventory was 55.06 tons, down 4.26% [5]. 3.2 Plastics Market - **Weekly Market Review**: On September 19, the plastics main contract closed at 7169 yuan/ton, with LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE prices showing slight declines. LLDPE South China basis contracted, and the 9 - 1 month spread widened [8]. - **Key Data Tracking** - **Month - Spread**: The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 month spreads of plastics had different changes on September 19 compared to September 12 [16]. - **Spot Price**: Different regions and varieties of plastics had different price changes on September 19 [17][18]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil was at 62.36 dollars/barrel, up 0.24 dollars/barrel, and Brent crude oil was at 66.05 dollars/barrel, down 0.83 dollars/barrel. Anthracite in the Yangtze River port was priced at 1060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [20]. - **Profit**: Oil - based PE profit was - 312 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan/ton, and coal - based PE profit was 868 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan/ton [24]. - **Supply**: China's polyethylene production start - up rate was 80.36%, up 2.32 percentage points, with a weekly output of 63.10 tons, up 2.97%. The maintenance loss was 12.52 tons, down 2.10 tons [29]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Multiple enterprises have new production capacity coming on - stream in 2025, with a total planned capacity of 613 [31]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' production lines are under maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [32]. - **Demand**: The domestic agricultural film, PE packaging film, and PE pipe start - up rates all increased [33]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: The linear film production ratio was the highest at 31.9%, and the low - pressure pipe ratio deviated significantly from the annual average [37]. - **Inventory**: Plastic enterprise social inventory was 54.66 tons, down 1.37 tons, or 2.45% [39]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 19, the polyethylene warehouse receipt quantity was 12736 lots, up 211 lots [42]. 3.3 PP Market - **Weekly Market Review**: On September 19, the PP main contract closed at 6914 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [45]. - **Key Data Tracking** - **Downstream Spot Price**: Different PP products and related products had different price changes on September 19 [48][49]. - **Basis**: On September 19, the PP spot price was 7020 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The PP basis was 106 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan, and the 9 - 1 month spread was 14 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan [51]. - **Month - Spread**: The 1 - 5, 5 - 9, and 9 - 1 month spreads of PP had different changes on September 19 compared to September 12 [60]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil was at 62.36 dollars/barrel, up 0.24 dollars/barrel, and Brent crude oil was at 66.05 dollars/barrel, down 0.83 dollars/barrel. Anthracite in the Yangtze River port was priced at 1060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [62]. - **Profit**: Oil - based PP profit was - 435.85 yuan/ton, down 113.68 yuan/ton, and coal - based PP profit was 444.40 yuan/ton, down 45.80 yuan/ton [66]. - **Supply**: China's PP petrochemical enterprise start - up rate was 74.90%, down 1.93 percentage points. PP pellet output was 76.70 tons, down 2.51% weekly, and PP powder output was 6.14 tons, up 2.44% [69]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' production lines are under maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [72]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate was 51.45%, up 0.59. The plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, and pipe start - up rates had different changes [74]. - **Import - Export Profit**: The PP import profit was - 480.06 dollars/ton, up 20.80 dollars/ton, and the export profit was - 3.69 dollars/ton, down 0.09 dollars/ton [81]. - **Inventory**: Polypropylene domestic inventory was 55.06 tons, down 4.26%. The two - oil inventory increased by 1.63%, the trader inventory decreased by 7.06%, and the port inventory increased by 4.92% [84]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On September 19, the PP warehouse receipt quantity was 13499 lots, down 207 lots [91].