Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long term for stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Range trading for coking coal and rebar, sell call options for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Cautiously hold long positions on dips for copper, buy on dips after a pullback for aluminum, wait and see or short on rallies for nickel, range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][12][16][17][18][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol to oscillate; wide - range oscillation for polyolefins; bearish on the 01 contract of soda ash [1][20][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; oscillate for PTA, red dates [1][35][36][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; wide - range oscillation for corn; range oscillation for soybean meal; oscillate with a slight upward bias for oils [1][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52] Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international trade situations. Different sectors show diverse trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper has supply - side disturbances and long - term demand prospects, while in the energy and chemicals sector, PVC has weak supply - demand fundamentals but is affected by cost and policy factors [10][11][20][21] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Oscillate with a medium - to - long - term bullish outlook. The market has more declining stocks, and the trading volume has shrunk. Positive factors such as the 15th Five - Year Plan and Fed rate - cut expectations may support the upward movement [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate. Treasury futures have rebounded, and factors like the 15th Five - Year Plan and central bank policies may support the upward movement [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking**: Oscillate. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and the price increase is driven by the rise in coking coal prices [7] - **Rebar**: Oscillate. The price is at a low static valuation, and with the improvement of market sentiment and the positive factors from the 15th Five - Year Plan, it is advisable to go long on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: Sell call options. The fundamental situation has deteriorated, and the price is expected to be more likely to fall than rise. Consider selling call options or using the covered call option strategy [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Concerns about supply shortages and optimistic trade prospects drive the price up. Supply - side disturbances and positive macro - factors support the price, but high prices suppress downstream demand [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Neutral, high - level oscillation. The price is affected by factors such as production capacity changes, demand, and international trade. It is advisable to take profit on long positions on rallies after positive factors are realized [12] - **Nickel**: Neutral, oscillate. The change in Indonesia's RKAB policy may affect the supply of nickel ore. In the medium - to - long - term, there is an oversupply, so it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply of tin ore is expected to improve, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is recommended for range trading [17][18] - **Silver and Gold**: Neutral, oscillate. Affected by US economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and geopolitical factors, they are in a short - term adjustment state, and it is recommended for range trading [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is in doubt. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy and cost factors [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: Neutral, oscillate weakly. The supply will increase in the future, and the demand is mixed. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2450 level pressure [22][23] - **Styrene**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost - profit situation is complex, and the supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is expected to oscillate [24][25] - **Rubber**: Neutral, oscillate. The cost is supported, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the 15000 level support [25][26] - **Urea**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply decreases, the demand increases, and the inventory situation is complex. The price is expected to move up in the short - term [26][27] - **Methanol**: Neutral, oscillate. The supply is tight in some areas, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. It is expected to oscillate [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: Neutral, weakly oscillate. The cost is supported, the supply pressure is high, and the demand improvement is slow. It is recommended to short on rallies [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish on the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, and the demand is lackluster. It is recommended to maintain a bearish position [31][32][33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The global cotton supply - demand situation is favorable, and the price of seed cotton is high. It is expected to oscillate with a slight upward bias [35] - **PTA**: Low - level oscillation. The oil price is weak, the supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the price is at a low level [35][36] - **Apples**: Neutral, oscillate with a slight upward bias. The storage situation in the late - Fuji apple producing areas is stable, and the quality decline may lead to an increase in the delivery cost [36] - **Red Dates**: Neutral, oscillate. The price in the producing areas is stable, and attention should be paid to the price change after the new - season centralized listing [37][38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The supply is loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy [39][40] - **Eggs**: Bearish on the medium - term. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 12 - contract and wait and see for the 01 - contract [41][42] - **Corn**: Weakly oscillate. The new - crop supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to short on rallies for the 01 - contract and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [43][44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level rebound. The cost is supported by the purchase of US soybeans. It is recommended to take profit on rallies and hold long positions on dips [46][47] - **Oils**: Palm oil is weak, soybean oil is strong, and high - level adjustment. The palm oil is under pressure from inventory accumulation, while the soybean oil and rapeseed oil have their own positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the spread arbitrage strategy [47][48][49][50][51][52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Bullish on the medium - to - long - term for stock indices, hold a neutral stance on treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral for coking coal, coke, and rebar; bearish on glass [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Bullish on copper in the medium - to - long - term with a neutral short - term view; neutral on aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver [1][10][12][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; bearish on soda ash; wide - range oscillation for polyolefins [1][20][22][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral and slightly bullish for cotton, cotton yarn, and apples; neutral for PTA and jujubes [1][35][36][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on live pigs and eggs; neutral and slightly bearish on corn; bullish on soybean meal rebound; neutral and slightly bullish on oils and fats with a differentiation in variety trends [1][39][44][46] Core Views - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations. Different sectors show different trends and investment opportunities [1][5][7] Summary by Categories Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term and is bullish in the medium - to - long - term. Investors are advised to buy on dips. The market is affected by factors like policy optimization, international trade talks, and Fed rate - cut expectations [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to oscillate slightly upwards. Influenced by factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations, regulatory policies, and central bank operations [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking**: The market is bullish with a significant upward price trend, mainly driven by the strengthening of upstream coking coal prices and short - term supply shortages [7] - **Rebar**: The price is expected to oscillate. With low static valuation and factors like the "15th Five - Year Plan" and improved demand, it is advisable to buy on dips for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The market is expected to be weak with a tendency to fall. It is recommended to sell call options for the 01 contract due to factors such as policy expectations cooling, supply - demand imbalance, and cost - profit changes [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to oscillate upwards in the short - term. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions on dips due to supply shortages, positive trade expectations, and weakening of the US dollar [10] - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is advisable to take profit on long positions on rallies after positive factors are realized, and pay attention to tariff progress and market sentiment [12] - **Nickel**: The market is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies due to potential changes in supply and demand [16] - **Tin**: The market is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the operating range of the Shanghai tin 12 - contract at 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [18] - **Silver and Gold**: The prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the operating ranges of the Shanghai silver 12 - contract at 10,900 - 11,700 and the Shanghai gold 12 - contract at 920 - 970 respectively [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is temporarily focused on the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as high supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain exports [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. The 01 contract is temporarily focused on the pressure at the 2,450 - yuan/ton level. Influenced by supply - demand relationships and macro - policies [22][23] - **Styrene**: The market is expected to oscillate. It is temporarily focused on the range of 6,300 - 6,700 yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory [24][25] - **Rubber**: The market is expected to oscillate. It is temporarily focused on the support at the 15,000 - yuan/ton level. Supported by raw material prices and inventory reduction, but downstream procurement is cautious [25] - **Urea**: The market is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is referred to the range of 1,600 - 1,700 yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, agricultural demand, and inventory changes [26][27] - **Methanol**: The market is expected to oscillate. The 01 contract is referred to the operating range of 2,230 - 2,330 yuan/ton. Affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and downstream demand [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. The PE and PP main contracts are recommended to pay attention to the support at 7,000 and 6,600 yuan/ton respectively, and it is advisable to go short on rallies [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: A bearish strategy is recommended for the 01 contract due to supply surplus and inventory accumulation [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards, influenced by factors such as global supply - demand forecasts and Sino - US trade negotiations [35] - **PTA**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and inventory accumulation [35][36] - **Apples**: The market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards. The price of high - quality goods remains stable, and the overall price is affected by factors such as quality and expected delivery costs [36] - **Jujubes**: The market is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to price changes after the new - season harvest is concentrated on the market [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The price rebound is under pressure. A bearish strategy is recommended for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts in the medium - term. Be cautious when bottom - fishing for the 07 and 09 contracts [39][40] - **Eggs**: The price rebound is under pressure. For the 12 - contract, short on rallies if the spot price increase is limited; wait and see for the 01 contract [41][42] - **Corn**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. A bearish strategy is recommended for the main 11 - contract. Pay attention to the 2,120 - 2,150 pressure level and the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is expected to rebound from a low level. For the M2601 contract, take partial profit on rallies and hold on to positions on dips. Spot enterprises can set prices on dips for the 11 - 1 month basis and sell on rallies [45][46] - **Oils and Fats**: The market shows a differentiation with palm oil being weak and soybean oil being strong. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the spread rebound strategy between soybean and palm oils [46][50][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to have long - term upward potential due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing demand from computing power construction, but short - term price increases may suppress downstream demand, leading to a recent trend of oscillatory upward movement [2] - Aluminum prices are likely to move upward in a high - level oscillation. Alumina prices are expected to decline, and suggestions include taking profit on long positions for aluminum and selling out - of - the - money put options for alumina [2] - Zinc prices are predicted to oscillate and decline. It is recommended to conduct range trading [2] - Lead prices may rise after consolidation. It is advisable to go long at low prices and pay attention to the pressure around 17,800 [2] - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a range. It is suggested to hold short positions moderately at high prices, and stainless steel prices are recommended for range trading [3] - Tin prices are likely to adjust downward from a high level but maintain an overall upward oscillation. Range trading is recommended [3] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate and adjust, and range trading or waiting and seeing is advised [3] - Carbonate lithium prices are predicted to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct cautious trading [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **10/20 - 10/26 Economic Data**: China's 10 - year LPR remained unchanged, with the five - year at 3.5% and the one - year at 3%. China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and September's industrial added value increased 6.5% year - on - year. UK's September core CPI was 3.5% year - on - year, and the eurozone's October composite PMI reached 52.2. US September core CPI rose 3% year - on - year, with a 0.2% month - on - month increase [11] - **China's Economic Situation**: China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and the overall economic operation maintained a stable and progressive trend. In September, social consumer goods retail sales increased 3% year - on - year [12][13] - **Policy and International Events**: The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China's Fourth Plenary Session proposed the 15th Five - Year Plan, aiming to develop future industries. China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 - 27 [14][15] - **US and Eurozone Economic Data**: US September CPI grew 3% year - on - year, and the core CPI's month - on - month increase was 0.2%, the slowest in three months. The eurozone's October composite PMI reached a 1.5 - year high [16][18] - **10/27 - 11/2 Forecasted Economic Data**: Multiple economic data from China, the US, and the eurozone are to be released, including industrial enterprise profits, durable goods orders, and GDP data [20] 3.2 Metal Market Analysis Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices rose strongly this week, with a 3.68% increase in the weekly line. LME copper approached $11,000 [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side disruptions continued, such as the shutdown of the Indonesian Grasberg copper mine and ongoing strikes at Codelco in Chile. Downstream demand was restricted by price increases [2] - **Recommendation**: Hold a small number of long positions at low prices [2] Aluminum - **Price Movement**: Aluminum prices showed a high - level upward oscillation, while alumina prices were expected to decline [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Alumina production capacity increased, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity decreased slightly. Downstream processing enterprise start - up rates declined [2] - **Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions at high prices for aluminum and sell out - of - the - money put options for alumina [2] Zinc - **Price Movement**: Zinc prices rose significantly last week but are expected to oscillate and decline [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Refined zinc production is expected to remain high in Q4, while terminal consumption is weak [2] - **Recommendation**: Conduct range trading [2] Lead - **Price Movement**: Lead prices reached a recent high and may rise after consolidation [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply decreased, and primary lead consumption demand was strong [2] - **Recommendation**: Go long at low prices and pay attention to the pressure around 17,800 [2] Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices oscillated and rose last week and are expected to oscillate within a range [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore prices are expected to remain firm, and refined nickel is in a surplus situation [3] - **Recommendation**: Hold short positions moderately at high prices [3] Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices are likely to adjust downward from a high level but maintain an overall upward oscillation [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Tin ore supply is expected to improve, while downstream consumption is weak [3] - **Recommendation**: Conduct range trading [3] Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Production and inventory showed different trends, and the situation of each segment in the photovoltaic industry chain varied [3] - **Recommendation**: Conduct range trading or wait and see [3] Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: Carbonate lithium prices are predicted to rebound [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are in a tight - balance situation, and downstream demand is good [3] - **Recommendation**: Wait and see or conduct cautious trading [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Pig Market - In the short - term, pig prices may experience a narrow - range shock due to weakening enthusiasm for secondary fattening after price increases and limited terminal demand growth. However, the decline in average slaughter weight and the expected price - supporting behavior of large farms at the end of the month may limit the downside. - In the medium - to - long - term, the oversupply situation will persist until the first half of next year. Pig prices during the peak season are not optimistic, and prices in the off - season of the first half of next year will also be under pressure. Although prices in the second half of next year are expected to be relatively strong due to capacity reduction, caution is still needed [5][60]. 2.2 Egg Market - In the short - term, egg prices will fluctuate at a low level due to sufficient supply and weak demand. Although the improvement of storage conditions and the increase in vegetable prices support egg prices, the lack of concentrated consumption before the Spring Festival limits the price increase. - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply growth rate will slow down, but due to the strong anti - risk ability of enterprises and the ease of chick supply, it will take time to clear the production capacity [6][91]. 2.3 Corn Market - In the short - term, the corn market will be under pressure due to sufficient supply from new grain listings and limited terminal demand recovery. It is expected to operate weakly. - In the medium - to - long - term, although the new season is expected to be a bumper harvest, the low carry - over inventory of old crops and limited imports will strengthen cost support. The demand for corn will be stable but weak, limiting the upside space [10][119]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Feed and Livestock - Poultry View Summary 3.1.1 Pig - **Price**: As of October 24, the national spot price was 11.77 yuan/kg, up 0.67 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of contract 2501 was 12175 yuan/ton, up 505 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of contract 01 was - 305 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from last week [5][60]. - **Supply**: The inventory of sows of reproductive age is still relatively high, and the production performance has improved. The supply pressure of pigs will remain high until the first half of next year. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in October has increased. The proportion of small pigs in slaughter has increased, and the average slaughter weight has decreased [5][60]. - **Demand**: The slaughter volume has increased overall, but there is a decline in the later period. The fresh - sales rate is stable, and the cold - storage capacity has increased slightly. The demand for pork has increased due to the cooling weather, but the increase is limited [5][60]. - **Cost**: The prices of piglets and sows of reproductive age have fluctuated slightly. The losses of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets for fattening have narrowed, and the cost of fattening pigs has decreased [5][60]. - **Strategy**: Take a bearish view of contracts 01, 03, and 05 in the medium - term. Hold existing short positions and add short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on contract 05 and shorting on contract 03. Be cautious about bottom - fishing for contracts 07 and 09 [5][60]. 3.1.2 Egg - **Price**: As of October 24, the average price in the main production areas was 2.94 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of contract 2512 was 3086 yuan/500 kg, up 127 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was - 556 yuan/500 kg, down 127 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [6][91]. - **Supply**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in October is still relatively high, and the number of old hens being slaughtered is at a high level. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the pattern of sufficient supply remains unchanged. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply growth rate will slow down, but it will take time to clear the production capacity [6][91]. - **Demand**: After the "Double Festivals", the terminal demand has weakened. The cooling weather and the increase in vegetable prices support egg prices, but the lack of concentrated consumption before the Spring Festival limits the price increase [6][91]. - **Strategy**: For the current main contract 12, pay attention to the spot price. If the spot price increase is limited, short on the futures market. Temporarily wait and see for contract 01 [6][91]. 3.1.3 Corn - **Price**: As of October 24, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2160 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of contract 2601 was 2133 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 27 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last Friday [10][119]. - **Supply**: The old - crop inventory of traders is not large. The new - crop corn in the Northeast is expected to be a bumper harvest, and the supply is sufficient at the beginning of the listing. The import volume of corn in September was 60,000 tons, a 50% month - on - month increase and an 80.6% year - on - year decrease [10][119]. - **Demand**: The feed demand has increased due to the increase in the inventory of pigs and poultry, but the high price difference between corn and wheat has squeezed the feed demand for corn. The processing profit of deep - processing enterprises has turned positive, but the start - up rate is still at a low level [10][119]. - **Strategy**: Take a bearish view of the main contract 01. Wait for a rebound to short, and pay attention to the pressure levels of 2170 - 2200 [8][117]. 3.2 Variety Industry Data Analysis 3.2.1 Pig - **Weekly Market Review**: The pig price has increased, the futures price has strengthened, and the basis has increased slightly [5][60]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The average slaughter weight has decreased, the fat - standard price difference has narrowed, the slaughter volume has increased, the cold - storage capacity has increased slightly, and the profit of pig - raising has improved [20]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of sows of reproductive age is slowly decreasing, and the production performance has reached the highest level in the past four years. The number of newly - born piglets has increased, indicating high supply pressure in the fourth quarter [22]. 3.2.2 Egg - **Weekly Market Review**: The egg price has fluctuated at a low level, the futures price has increased, and the basis has weakened [6][91]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The price of eggs has decreased slightly, the price of chicks has increased, the price of old hens being slaughtered has decreased slightly, the sales volume in the sales areas has increased, and the inventory in the circulation link has increased [67]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, the number of newly - opened laying hens in October is still relatively high, and the number of old hens being slaughtered is at a high level [6][91]. 3.2.3 Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: The corn price has stopped falling and rebounded slightly, the futures price has increased, and the basis has weakened [10][119]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The price of corn at the port has increased slightly, the supply has increased, the demand for deep - processing has increased slightly, and the inventory has increased [99]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The new - crop corn in the Northeast is expected to be a bumper harvest, the import volume is at a low level, and the feed demand is stable but weak [10][119].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - The U.S. September CPI data was slightly lower than expected, the U.S. government shutdown was about to end, the Sino - U.S. trade situation eased, and the shortage of London silver spot was alleviated, leading to a correction in precious metal prices. The market has differences in the expected interest - rate cut amplitude this year, and the expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts has been lowered compared with the previous period. Fed meeting minutes showed that most officials thought it might be appropriate to further ease policies this year. Trump's influence on the Fed's independence emerged, and the U.S. employment situation slowed down. Powell said that the changing economic risks gave the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices was unlikely to be sustained. The U.S. economic data showed a downward trend, and the market was worried about the U.S. fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Supported by interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, the medium - term prices of precious metals are expected to remain supported, while they are still in an adjustment state in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision to be announced this Thursday [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - U.S. September CPI data was slightly lower than expected, the U.S. government shutdown was about to end, the Sino - U.S. trade situation eased, leading to a correction in the price of U.S. gold. As of last Friday, U.S. gold closed at $4127 per ounce, down 3.3% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4250, and the lower support level is $4050 [6]. - U.S. September CPI data was slightly lower than expected, the U.S. government shutdown was about to end, the Sino - U.S. trade situation eased, and the shortage of London silver spot was alleviated, leading to a correction in the price of U.S. silver. As of last Friday, it had a weekly decline of 4.4%, closing at $48.4 per ounce. The lower support level is $47, and the upper resistance level is $50 [9]. 2. Weekly View - The U.S. September CPI data was slightly lower than expected, the U.S. government shutdown was about to end, and the shortage of London silver spot was alleviated, leading to a correction in precious metal prices. The market has differences in the expected interest - rate cut amplitude this year, and the expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts has been lowered compared with the previous period. The Fed meeting minutes showed that most officials thought it might be appropriate to further ease policies this year. Trump's influence on the Fed's independence emerged, and the U.S. employment situation slowed down. Powell said that the changing economic risks gave the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices was unlikely to be sustained. The U.S. economic data showed a downward trend, and the market was worried about the U.S. fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Supported by interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, the medium - term prices of precious metals are expected to remain supported, while they are still in an adjustment state in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision to be announced this Thursday [11]. - In terms of inventory, this week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7,154.16 kg to 1,209,213.47 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 2,409 kg to 87,015 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 389,177.34 kg to 15,456,790.67 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 255,132 kg to 664,971 kg. This week, the net long positions of gold CFTC speculative funds were 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts compared with last week. The net long positions of silver CFTC speculative funds were 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts compared with last week. It is recommended to trade cautiously and within a range, with the reference operating range of SHFE gold contract 12 being 920 - 970, and that of SHFE silver contract 12 being 10900 - 11700 [13]. 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data and trends of indicators such as the euro - dollar exchange rate, pound - dollar exchange rate, U.S. dollar index, real interest rate (10 - year TIPS yield), inflation expectations (10Y), yield spread (10Y - 2Y), U.S. Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), Fed balance sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends through charts, but no specific analysis is provided [15][17][19][21]. 4. Important Economic Data of the Week - The U.S. September CPI annual rate unadjusted was 3%, the previous value was 2.9%. The U.S. September core CPI annual rate unadjusted was 3%, the expected value was 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.1% [23]. 5. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The plan for a summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin on Tuesday was shelved because Moscow rejected the proposal of an immediate cease - fire in Ukraine, casting a shadow over the negotiation prospects. A senior White House official said that "President Trump has no plans to meet with President Putin in the near future." Previously, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio had a "productive call" with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, but they decided not to hold a face - to - face meeting. Sources said that Russia restated the conditions for a peace agreement with Ukraine in a private communication sent to the U.S. over the weekend, effectively negating Trump's current proposal. - The Sino - U.S. negotiations in Kuala Lumpur discussed important economic and trade issues of common concern such as the U.S. 301 measures against China's maritime logistics and shipbuilding industries, the extension of the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl tariffs and law - enforcement cooperation, agricultural product trade, and export controls. The two sides reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns, agreed to further determine specific details, and fulfill their respective domestic approval procedures [24]. 6. Inventory - The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7,154.16 kg to 1,209,213.47 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 2,409 kg to 87,015 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 389,177.34 kg to 15,456,790.67 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 255,132 kg to 664,971 kg [13][29]. 7. Fund Holdings - As of September 23, the net long positions of gold CFTC speculative funds were 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts compared with last week. The net long positions of silver CFTC speculative funds were 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts compared with last week [13][33]. 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - On Thursday (October 30) at 20:30, the initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of the U.S. real GDP in the third quarter will be released. - On Friday (October 31) at 20:30, the annual rate of the U.S. September PCE price index and the monthly rate of U.S. September personal spending will be released [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For stock indices, due to positive statements from the China-US talks and rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, they are expected to fluctuate with a stronger bias in the short - term and be positive in the medium - to - long - term. For bonds, positive China - US negotiation results and the central bank's positive stance may put pressure on the bond market [10][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Review**: Most stocks rose, with over 3000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets rising. The total market turnover was 1.99 trillion yuan, and the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 330 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Storage chips, commercial aerospace, computing hardware, and consumer electronics sectors led the gains, while coal, gas, real estate, and liquor sectors declined [10]. - **Core View**: Positive results from the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, the Ministry of Commerce's plan to introduce more detailed measures, and lower - than - expected US CPI in September boosting rate - cut expectations contribute to the expected stronger - biased fluctuation of stock indices [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the broader market index may fluctuate with a stronger bias [10]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Expect a stronger - biased fluctuation, and pay attention to the resistance level at 4000 points [10]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Review**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bonds declined by 0.25%, 0.06%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively [12]. - **Core View**: Positive China - US negotiation results and the central bank's positive attitude may put pressure on treasury bonds. Pay attention to important financial policies to be released at the Financial Street Forum Annual Conference [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may be adjusted [12]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Expect a pressured operation [12]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In September, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.4%. The improvement in supply and demand and the active replenishment of raw material inventories supported the rebound, while the supplier delivery time and employment index slightly dragged down the PMI. The simultaneous improvement in domestic and foreign demand in September may be due to non - US capital goods orders, US Christmas - season restocking orders, and more active downstream raw material procurement after upstream price increases [19]. 3.2.2 CPI - In September, the year - on - year change of the consumer price index was - 0.3%, and the month - on - month change was + 0.1%. The year - on - year change of the producer price index for industrial products was - 2.3%, and the month - on - month change was flat. The CPI was still negative year - on - year, but the year - on - year increase of the core CPI expanded. Gold jewelry and services were the main supports for the CPI year - on - year, and the year - on - year decline of the PPI narrowed [22]. 3.2.3 Imports and Exports - In September 2025, China's exports were $328.57 billion, imports were $238.12 billion, and the trade surplus was $90.45 billion. The sharp rebound in export growth in September was mainly due to the base effect and seasonal factors, and the two - year average growth rate continued to decline [23][24]. 3.2.4 Industrial Enterprise Profits - In August, both the profit growth rate and revenue growth rate rebounded. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded to 0.9%, and in August, it quickly rebounded to 20.4%. The recovery of profit growth in August may be due to the concentrated recognition of state - owned enterprise investment income and the effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. In terms of revenue, the year - on - year growth rate of the upstream manufacturing industry rebounded, while that of the mid - and downstream industries declined. At the end of August, the nominal and real year - on - year growth rates of industrial enterprise finished - product inventories declined, and the inventory turnover days remained the same while the accounts receivable turnover days increased slightly [28][31][34]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In August, the production intensity declined, especially in the downstream. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 5.2%, and that of the service production index dropped to 5.6%. The year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value turned negative for the first time since 2024, confirming the differentiation in the mid - level industry data of the production side [37]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Asset Investment - In August, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline. The estimated single - month year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped to - 6.3%, and that of private investment dropped to - 7.1%. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate investment all declined [40]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 3.4%, and that of above - quota retail sales dropped to 2.4%. The narrowing of national subsidy channels and the overdraft effect of durable - goods consumption led to a lack of upward momentum in consumption. The three national subsidy categories still contributed about 40% to the growth of social retail sales [43]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In September, the new social financing was 3.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 trillion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock dropped to 8.7%, and after excluding government bonds, it remained at 5.9%. The year - on - year growth rate of social - financing - caliber credit dropped to 6.4%. The year - on - year increase in social financing was less, mainly dragged down by government bonds and credit. The year - on - year growth of household medium - and long - term loans turned positive, but that of enterprise medium - and long - term loans was still less. The M1 growth rate continued to rise, and non - bank deposits turned negative year - on - year [46].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Bullish Macro Sentiment, Persistent Support from the Mine End [1] Report Date - October 27, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market is supported by a weakening US dollar due to lower - than - expected CPI data, the start of the fifth round of Sino - US trade negotiations, and the optimistic expectations brought by the 15th Five - Year Plan. On the fundamental side, supply - side disruptions continue, and the long - term demand outlook for copper remains positive due to computing power construction. However, high copper prices are suppressing downstream demand. Overall, copper prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply**: The shortage of copper ore persists, with the spot smelting fee for copper concentrate at a historical low. As of October 24, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 404,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.68%. The spot smelting fee for copper concentrate was - $42.5/ton. Domestic electrolytic copper output decreased in September, and it is expected to decline further in October [5]. - **Demand**: The market is transitioning to the off - season, and high copper prices are suppressing demand. As of October 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 61.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.97 percentage points. In September, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively [5]. - **Inventory**: The accumulation of domestic copper inventory has slowed down. As of October 24, the SHFE copper inventory was 10.48 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.94%. As of October 23, the domestic social copper inventory was 181,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The LME copper inventory decreased, while the COMEX copper inventory increased [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering the bullish macro sentiment, the long - term tight supply of copper concentrates, and the suppression of downstream demand by high copper prices, copper prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile trend in the short term [7]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro Data**: China's Q3 GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the first three quarters. China's September social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3% year - on - year. The US September core CPI had the slowest growth rate in three months, strengthening the market's expectation of two interest rate cuts within the year. The US October Markit PMI reached the second - highest level this year [15]. - **Industry News**: China's September scrap copper imports increased by 14.84% year - on - year. The copper production of major mining companies such as BHP, MMG, and Vale increased in Q3 2025. Southern Copper's Tía María copper mine project was approved [17]. 3. Futures, Spot Market, and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: High copper prices weakened downstream purchasing sentiment, and the spot premium of SHFE copper decreased. The LME copper 0 - 3 maintained a slight discount, and the New York - London copper price difference fluctuated. The refined - scrap copper price difference first narrowed and then widened [24]. - **Domestic and Overseas Positions**: As of October 24, the SHFE copper futures open interest increased by 27.88% week - on - week, while the average daily trading volume decreased by 21.52% week - on - week. As of October 17, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased by 20.10% week - on - week [26]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The shortage of copper ore persists, and the spot smelting fee for copper concentrate remains at a historical low. Domestic electrolytic copper output decreased in September and is expected to decline further [35]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: As of October 23, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises decreased. In September, the operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively [40]. - **Imports and Exports**: As of October 24, the SHFE - LME ratio of electrolytic copper was stable, and the negative value of the spot import profit and loss of copper widened slightly. In September, China's refined copper imports increased by 2.91% year - on - year, scrap copper imports increased by 14.84% year - on - year, and unforged copper and copper products imports increased by 1% year - on - year [42]. - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the SHFE copper inventory decreased, the domestic social copper inventory accumulation slowed down, the LME copper inventory decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trade expectation between China and the US has improved, leading to increased volatility in the futures prices of oils and fats, and cost - driven upward movement in soybean meal prices [2][5]. - For soybean meal, the price of the M2601 contract is expected to rise slightly, but the short - term strengthening range is limited. For oils and fats, the market is expected to be more volatile in the short term, and a bullish outlook is recommended in the long term [7][85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of October 25, the East China spot price was 2910 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2601 contract closed at 2933 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis price decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean meal futures price followed the upward trend of US soybeans, while the spot price was restricted by inventory pressure [7][9]. 3.1.2 Supply - The USDA October report was postponed. There is an expectation of a decrease in US soybean yield. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing faster than last year. The domestic supply was abundant in October, with arrivals of about 8.5 million tons, but is expected to decrease to less than 8 million tons in November [7]. 3.1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the demand for feed. The demand for soybean meal is expected to increase by more than 5% year - on - year in the fourth quarter [7]. 3.1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1135 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 980 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost is calculated to be 3080 yuan/ton [7]. 3.1.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - The price of the US soybean 01 contract is expected to fluctuate around 1020 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal price is expected to rise in November. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 3000 for M2601 long positions, gradually take profits at high prices, and lightly build long positions for M2605 and M2901 at low prices [7]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of the week of October 24, the main 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all declined. The spot prices of corresponding oils also decreased, and the basis prices showed different trends [85][87]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - In October, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased, while the export growth slowed down, leading to inventory accumulation. However, the Southeast Asian palm oil production will enter the reduction season in November. In Indonesia, the implementation of B50 in the second half of 2026 is planned, which is bullish for palm oil prices [85]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The price of US soybeans was strong due to the Sino - US talks, but there are still uncertainties in Sino - US relations. The domestic soybean oil inventory is high in the short term, and the supply gap after November is expected to be narrowed [85]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The relationship between China and Canada has slightly improved, but the supply gap of rapeseed oil in China before November is difficult to solve, and the supply is still expected to be tight after November [85]. 3.2.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - After the Sino - US talks on October 26, the market sentiment improved, but there are still uncertainties at the APEC meeting at the end of October. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of 8050 - 8150, 8900 - 9000, and 9650 - 9500 for soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts, and adopt a long - at - low strategy [85].

1. Report Title and Date - Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Date: October 27, 2025 [3] 2. Core Viewpoints Supply - side - Last week, carbonate lithium production increased by 405 tons week - on - week to 23,170 tons, and September production increased by 3.3% month - on - month to 95,442 tons [5]. - Ningde Jianxiawo Mine has been shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply [5]. - In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, with extremely limited further cost - reduction space, and most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 2025 [5]. - In September 2025, China imported 711,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 14.7% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. The import from Australia increased by 64.1% month - on - month, from Zimbabwe decreased by 7.8% month - on - month, from Nigeria increased by 14.4% month - on - month, and from South Africa increased by 109,000 tons [5]. - In September, carbonate lithium imports were 19,597 tons, a 10.3% month - on - month decrease, with 11,000 tons from Chile, accounting for 55% [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, and some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium from purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. Demand - side - The overall production schedule in October increased month - on - month, and in September, the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month [6]. - In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, an 8.3% month - on - month and 35.4% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 26.7 GWh, an 18.2% month - on - month and 28.3% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 146.5 GWh, a 9.0% month - on - month and 42.2% year - on - year increase [6]. - The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy are expected to continue to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [6]. Inventory - This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking trend, with a 1,040 - ton decrease in factory inventory and a 1,987 - ton decrease in futures inventory [6]. Strategy Suggestion - Before a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi, the domestic supply - demand remains in a tight balance, and it is expected that subsequent lithium salt imports from South America will supplement the supply [6]. - The terminal demand for energy storage continues to be strong. In September, the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month, and in October, the cathode production schedule is expected to increase by 4% month - on - month [6]. - With profit recovery, lithium production from ore continues to increase, and the cost center shifts upward. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery factories increases, and warehouse receipts are continuously cancelled. It is expected that the short - term carbonate lithium price will be supported [6]. - As the verification and submission of reserve reports by Yichun mining enterprises are still undetermined and the downstream production schedule exceeds expectations, attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end. During the peak season, downstream enterprises actively purchase carbonate lithium, and it is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate strongly. Prudent trading is recommended, and continuous attention should be paid to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo Lithium Mine [6]. 3. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot含税均价 of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production and inventory of carbonate lithium, average price of lithium concentrate, average production cost of carbonate lithium, production and related data of power batteries, production proportion of carbonate lithium from different raw materials, production of cathode materials (such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials), average price of lithium iron phosphate, import volume of carbonate lithium and lithium spodumene, and market price of ternary materials [9][10][12][14][19][21][24][25][27][29][33][35][39][41][43][45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The price of methanol decreased and then rebounded slightly. The closing price of the 01 contract on October 24 was 2273 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to last week. The spot price in Taicang dropped by 40 yuan/ton to 2235 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened to -37 yuan/ton. With multiple methanol plants under maintenance and reduced supply in some areas, the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry declined, and the traditional terminal market demand was relatively weak. Although the price rebounded due to improved macro sentiment and a rebound in crude oil prices, the port inventory pressure persisted, limiting the rebound space. The operating range of the 01 contract is expected to be between 2230 - 2330 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - The price of methanol decreased and then rebounded slightly. On October 24, the closing price of the 01 contract was 2273 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to last week. The spot price in Taicang was 2235 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis weakened to -37 yuan/ton [3][4]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The capacity utilization rate of methanol plants was 85.65%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points from last week, with a weekly output of 194.35 million tons. The expected arrival volume at ports was 6.7 million tons. Multiple methanol plants in the inland region were under maintenance, resulting in tight supply in some areas [3][10]. Cost - The domestic thermal coal market price continued to rise, increasing by 26 yuan/ton to 619 yuan/ton, leading to a continuous increase in the cost of coal-based methanol [3][13]. Demand - The operating rate of the methanol-to-olefins industry was 90.43%, a decrease of 1.96 percentage points from last week. Some olefin plants in coastal areas reduced their production loads, and the operating rate declined slightly. The demand for externally purchased methanol is expected to weaken next week when a methanol project supporting an olefin plant in Inner Mongolia resumes operation. Additionally, a 200,000 - ton ethylene project in Henan is about to shut down, indicating weak demand from the main downstream industries. The traditional downstream demand for methanol remained weak, with low operating loads at traditional downstream factories and cautious replenishment based on rigid demand [3][17]. Inventory - The inventory of sampled methanol enterprises was 36.04 million tons, an increase of 0.05 million tons from last week. The port inventory was 151.22 million tons, an increase of 2.08 million tons from last week. The inventory of enterprises and ports showed a divergence, with a decline in the inland operating rate and a recovery in arrival volume, narrowing the price difference between the inland and ports [3][23]. Main Operating Logic - Multiple methanol plants in the inland region were under maintenance, resulting in tight supply in some areas. The operating rate of the methanol-to-olefins industry declined slightly, and the main demand in some areas weakened. The traditional terminal market demand was relatively weak. Although the improved macro sentiment and a rebound in crude oil prices drove up the methanol price, the port inventory pressure persisted, limiting the rebound space. The operating range of the 01 contract is expected to be between 2230 - 2330 [3]. Key Points of Attention - Changes in the macro - economic situation, methanol plant maintenance, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins plants, coal prices, and international crude oil prices [3].