Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold off [1][5] - Black building materials: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; neutral on glass, recommended to hold off [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Neutral on copper, recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; neutral on aluminum, recommended to build long positions on dips after pullbacks; neutral on nickel, recommended to hold off or short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][11][13] - Energy and chemicals: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, recommended for range trading; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, recommended a short position [1][21][23] - Cotton textile industry chain: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; bearish on PTA, recommended for range trading; bullish on apples and jujubes, recommended for bullish range trading [1][34][35] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils, recommended to buy after corrections [1][38][44] Core Views of the Report The report provides investment strategies for various futures products based on fundamental and technical analyses. It considers factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and geopolitical events. Overall, the market is expected to be volatile, with different products showing different trends and investment opportunities [1][5][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro-finance - Stock indices are expected to be volatile in the short term but bullish in the long term, supported by China's GDP growth, income growth, and policy expectations. Recommended to buy on dips [5]. - Treasury bonds are recommended to be held off, with the outcome of the Sino-US negotiation at the end of the month being the key factor affecting market risk appetite. Band trading can be considered if there is significant volatility in the next two weeks [5]. Black Building Materials - Coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile, with coking coal having long-term value due to supply constraints and inventory health. Coke prices are supported by demand from steel mills [7][8]. - Rebar is expected to be volatile at low levels, with limited downside due to low valuations and improving demand. A long position can be considered when RB2601 stabilizes around 3000 [8]. - Glass is recommended to be held off, as the market is weak due to environmental policies, inventory accumulation, and lack of demand. Wait for a reversal before considering a long position [9][10]. Non-ferrous Metals - Copper is expected to remain strong at high levels, supported by supply disruptions, interest rate cuts, and potential demand growth in the fourth quarter. Recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile, with a recommendation to build long positions on dips after pullbacks. Pay attention to tariff developments and market sentiment [13]. - Nickel is expected to be in a surplus situation in the long term, with a recommendation to hold off or short on rallies. The new RKAB approval policy may bring uncertainty to the nickel ore market [18]. - Tin is expected to be volatile, with a recommendation for range trading. Pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [18]. - Gold and silver are expected to be supported by interest rate cut expectations and safe-haven sentiment. Recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient price corrections [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC is expected to be volatile, with a focus on the 4600 - 4800 range for the 01 contract. Pay attention to macro data, export conditions, inventory, and raw material prices [21][22]. - Caustic soda is expected to be weakly volatile, with a focus on the 2450 resistance level for the 01 contract. Pay attention to downstream inventory replenishment and export conditions [23][24]. - Styrene is expected to be weakly volatile, with a focus on the 6600 resistance level. Pay attention to oil prices, pure benzene supply, macro data, and plant operations [24][25]. - Rubber is expected to be volatile, with a focus on the 14500 support level. Pay attention to raw material prices, inventory, and downstream demand [26][27]. - Urea is expected to be bottoming out and volatile, with a range of 1550 - 1650. Pay attention to compound fertilizer production, urea plant maintenance, export policies, and coal prices [28]. - Methanol is expected to be volatile, with a weak short-term market due to increased supply, stable traditional demand, and high inventory [30]. - Polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile, with a focus on the 6800 support level for L2601 and the 6500 support level for PP2601. Pay attention to downstream demand, interest rate cuts, trade relations, and oil prices [30][31]. - Soda ash 01 contract is recommended for a short position, as the market is under pressure from oversupply and inventory accumulation [31][33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be volatile, with uncertainties in the Sino-US relationship. The 2025/26 and 2024/25 cotton supply and demand forecasts show a decrease in ending stocks [34][35]. - PTA is expected to be weakly volatile, with a focus on the 4350 - 4600 range. Pay attention to oil prices, supply and demand, and macroeconomic conditions [35]. - Apples are expected to be bullishly volatile, with high-quality fruits commanding higher prices. The expected increase in delivery costs due to quality decline may support prices [36]. - Jujubes are expected to be bullishly volatile. Pay attention to the progress of new-season orchard contracts in Xinjiang [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs are under pressure, with a recommendation to reduce short positions in the 11 contract, hold short positions in the 01, 03, and 05 contracts, and be cautious about bottom-fishing in the 07 and 09 contracts. Pay attention to secondary fattening and supply and demand dynamics [38][40]. - Eggs are expected to face resistance in rebounds. Partially close short positions in the 11 contract and wait for spot price guidance. Consider shorting the 12 and 01 contracts on rallies. Pay attention to chicken culling, weather, diseases, and environmental policies [40][41]. - Corn is expected to be range-trading, with a bearish view on the 11 contract. Consider shorting on rallies and pay attention to the 2120 - 2150 resistance level. Also, pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on policies and weather conditions [42]. - Soybean meal is expected to be trading at low levels, with limited upside due to harvest pressure and slow US soybean exports. Pay attention to Sino-US trade relations and post-October shipping purchases [43]. - Oils are expected to have limited corrections. Pay attention to the support levels of 8200 - 8250, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 for the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, respectively. Consider buying after corrections [44][50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current futures market is at a stage of intense collision between macro - drivers and industrial realities. Precious metals have prominent allocation value. For non - ferrous metals, pay attention to the long - position layout opportunities for copper after a pullback. The black - metal sector is under pressure, and its rebound depends on domestic policies. The energy - chemical sector is suppressed by crude oil and is a short - term short - allocation choice. Some agricultural products like sugar have independent long - position opportunities [2]. - Investors should follow the idea of "macro determines the direction, industry determines the variety", focus on key events such as the Fed's interest - rate meeting in late October, policy settings of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, and adjust positions flexibly while strictly managing risks [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Summary of Core Macro Hotspots during the National Day Holiday (1) International Macro: Loose Expectations and Geopolitical Risks - US economic data is weak, with a 32,000 decrease in September ADP employment and a drop in ISM services PMI. The probability of a Fed rate cut in October has risen to 99%, and the expected cumulative rate - cut range this year is 50 - 75 basis points. The US government shutdown has disrupted data release and increased market volatility. OPEC+ has slowed down production increases, but there are concerns about long - term supply surpluses. Geopolitical risks are structurally differentiated, with the Middle East situation easing and the Russia - Ukraine conflict continuing. Trade protectionism is on the rise, with the EU and the US introducing tariff - increasing measures [6][7][9][10][11]. (2) Domestic Macro: Policy Expectations and Structural Recovery of Domestic Demand - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is expected to set mid - to long - term policy frameworks. Industrial policies are coordinated, with plans for the steel and building materials industries. Economic data shows structural characteristics, with slow manufacturing recovery and differentiated holiday consumption. Financial data has improved marginally, and there are changes in foreign trade policies and domestic industrial adjustment [13][15][16][17]. 2. Outlook for Each Sector (1) Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - Precious metals are strong due to factors like the US government shutdown, weak economic data, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Copper has long - term support but faces short - term consumption suppression. Aluminum is relatively weak, and tin's price is affected by supply and consumption [21][22][23]. (2) Black Metals Sector - Steel has high inventory and weak demand, and its price depends on policy signals. Iron ore has a loose supply - demand pattern, and coking coal and coke are in a negative feedback loop in the industrial chain [24][25][27]. (3) Energy Sector - Crude oil is in a range - bound state with multiple factors at play, and natural gas is expected to be strong due to demand growth and supply concerns [28][29][30]. (4) Chemical Sector - Crude - oil - related products are expected to be weak, and glass is strong due to supply contraction while纯碱 is under pressure [30][31]. (5) Agricultural Products Sector - There are structural opportunities in oilseeds, policy support in grains, differentiated trends in soft commodities, and bottom - bound oscillations in livestock and eggs [32][33][35]. 3. Conclusions and Suggestions - The futures market is in a period of intense collision between macro - drivers and industrial realities. Different sectors have different characteristics, and investors should focus on key events, adjust positions flexibly, and manage risks [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - **Stock Index**: With important meetings approaching, market policy expectations are rising. Coupled with the Fed still having room to cut interest rates this year, it will support the market. However, the KDJ indicator shows that the market index may adjust [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds have declined. Overseas credit risks have led to a decline in risk appetite, and global bonds have temporarily improved. It is advisable to take partial profit during the risk - impact window. The Sino - US negotiation at the end of the month will be the key factor for future market risk appetite. If there is significant volatility in the next two weeks, appropriate band operations can be carried out according to positions. The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may adjust [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - **Strategy Outlook**: The stock index is expected to move in a volatile manner [10]. - **Stock Index Trend Review**: Last week, the weekly gains of all A - share broad - based indexes were negative, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indexes having the largest declines. Coal and banks performed well [10]. - **Core View**: High - level Sino - US exchanges and the upcoming important domestic meetings, along with the release of macro - economic data and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, will support the market [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the market index may adjust [10]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - **Treasury Bond Trend Review**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.74%, 0.12%, 0.07%, and 0.01% respectively [11]. - **Core View**: Yields of interest - rate and credit bonds declined. Overseas credit risks affected the market, but the panic may be excessive. It is advisable to take partial profit, and the Sino - US negotiation is a key factor [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may adjust [11]. - **Strategy Outlook**: The bond market is expected to move in a volatile manner [11]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In September, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.4%. The improvement in supply and demand and the replenishment of raw material inventories supported the rebound, while the supplier delivery time and employment indexes slightly dragged it down. The improvement in domestic and foreign demand may be due to non - US capital goods orders, US Christmas - season restocking, and the downstream's more active raw material procurement after the upstream price increase [18]. 3.2.2 CPI - In September, the year - on - year CPI was - 0.3%, and the month - on - month was + 0.1%. The year - on - year PPI was - 2.3%, and the month - on - month was flat. The improvement in August's PPI was due to the base effect and the "anti - involution" policy. The year - on - year CPI was still negative, the year - on - year increase in core CPI expanded, gold jewelry and services were the main support for the year - on - year CPI, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed [21]. 3.2.3 Import and Export - In September, China's exports were $328.57 billion, imports were $238.12 billion, and the trade surplus was $90.45 billion. The sharp rebound in export growth in September was mainly due to the base effect and seasonal factors. The two - year average growth rate continued to decline, and the month - on - month growth rate was weaker than the average from 2018 - 2023, indicating that the export performance was not that strong [22][23]. 3.2.4 Industrial Enterprise Profits - In August, both the profit growth rate and revenue growth rate rebounded. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded to 0.9%. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits quickly rebounded to 20.4%, with a marginal increase of 21.9%. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise revenue in August was 1.9%, with a marginal increase of 1.0%. The improvement in profit was contributed by quantity, price, and profit margin, with the profit - margin improvement being the most obvious, possibly related to investment income recognition [27]. - Structurally, the rebound in profit growth in August may be due to the concentrated recognition of state - owned enterprise investment income and the effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. In terms of revenue, the year - on - year growth rate of upstream manufacturing industries rebounded, while that of mid - and downstream industries declined, mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [30]. - At the end of August, the nominal year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise finished - product inventories declined to 2.3%, and the real inventory year - on - year growth rate declined to 5.4%. The real inventory depletion was faster under the influence of PPI convergence, mainly due to downstream advance procurement. The inventory turnover days remained unchanged at 20.5 days, and the accounts - receivable turnover days increased by 0.3 days to 70.1 days, indicating high business pressure [33]. 3.2.5 Industrial Added Value - In August, the production intensity declined, and the downstream production slowdown was obvious. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value declined to 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the service production index declined to 5.6%. Among the mid - level industries, the year - on - year growth rate of industries such as computer communication electronics, electrical machinery, and metal products declined significantly. The year - on - year growth rate of export delivery value turned negative to - 0.4% for the first time since 2024, confirming the differentiation of mid - level production data [36]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Asset Investment - In August, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline. The estimated single - month year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment declined to - 6.3%, and that of private investment declined to - 7.1%. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real - estate investment all declined. The estimated year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment declined to - 1.3%, that of new and old - caliber infrastructure investment declined to - 5.9% and - 6.4% respectively, and that of real - estate investment declined to - 19.5% [39]. 3.2.7 Social Retail Sales - In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales declined to 3.4%, and that of above - quota retail sales declined to 2.4%. The narrowing of national subsidy channels and the overdraft effect of durable - goods consumption led to a lack of upward momentum in consumption. The national subsidy funds in the third quarter were 69 billion yuan, slightly lower than the 81 billion yuan per quarter in the first half of the year. The year - on - year performance of the three major national subsidy categories weakened significantly compared with June, and the year - on - year growth rate of optional consumption declined to - 0.1%. The three major national subsidy categories still contributed about 40% to the growth of social retail sales, indicating slow growth in other consumption categories [42]. 3.2.8 Social Financing - In September, the new social financing was 3.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 trillion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock declined to 8.7%, remained flat at 5.9% after excluding government bonds, and the credit growth rate in the social financing caliber declined to 6.4%. The year - on - year decrease in social financing was mainly dragged down by government bonds and credit. The year - on - year growth of long - term household loans turned positive, but that of long - term corporate loans still decreased. The M1 growth rate continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth of non - bank deposits turned negative [45].

Report Title - Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] Report Date - October 20, 2025 [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply and demand of carbonate lithium will remain in a tight balance until there is a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi. It is expected that subsequent lithium salt imports from South America will supplement the supply. The terminal demand for energy storage is strong, with large battery cell manufacturers increasing their production schedules by 8% in September and a projected 4% increase in cathode production in October. There are ongoing risks related to mining licenses, and with profit recovery, lithium extraction from ore continues to increase, leading to a rise in the cost center. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery manufacturers is increasing, and warehouse receipts are being continuously cancelled. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end, and it is recommended to trade cautiously and monitor the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoints 3.1.1 Supply Situation - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, last week's carbonate lithium production increased by 326 tons week - on - week to 22,765 tons, and September's production increased by 3.3% month - on - month to 95,442 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has been confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In the first half of the year, Australian mines achieved cost control, and there is extremely limited room for further cost reduction. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025. In August 2025, China imported 619,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 17.5% decrease from the previous month. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. Lithium concentrate imports from Australia decreased by 50.5% month - on - month, imports from Zimbabwe were 118,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 83.9%, imports from Nigeria were 105,000 tons, a 9.5% decrease, and imports from Mali increased by 73,000 tons. In August, 21,847 tons of carbonate lithium were imported, a 57.8% month - on - month increase, with 15,608 tons from Chile, accounting for 71%. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week, and some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium from purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. 3.1.2 Demand Situation - The overall production schedule in October increased month - on - month, and large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increased by 8% in September. In August, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 139.6 GWh, a 4.4% month - on - month increase and a 37.3% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 22.6 GWh, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease but a 23.9% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 134.5 GWh, a 5.7% month - on - month increase and a 45.6% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy are expected to continue to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory Situation - This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking trend. Factory inventory decreased by 2,255 tons, market inventory increased by 13,194 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 11,983 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Strategy Recommendations - Given the current situation, it is recommended to trade cautiously and continuously monitor the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot tax - included average price of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production and inventory of carbonate lithium, average price of lithium concentrate imports, production proportion of carbonate lithium from different raw materials in September 2024, differences between domestic power battery production and loading volume, average production cost of carbonate lithium, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, import volume of lithium spodumene, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, and average price of ternary materials 8 - series NCA type [8][9][11][24] etc.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - bound trading; glass is advised to be observed [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; aluminum is advised to lay out long positions on dips after pullbacks; nickel is suggested to be observed or shorted on highs; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - bound trading [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash should be traded with a short - selling mindset [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs and eggs are recommended to be shorted on highs; corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; soybean meal is expected to have range - bound oscillations; oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, industry events, supply - demand relationships, and international policies. For example, in the macro - financial sector, important meetings and potential Fed rate cuts support the stock market, while in the bond market, the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is crucial. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal, rebar, etc. Each sector's analysis is based on a combination of multiple factors to guide investment decisions [5][7][8]. Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: Last week, A - share broad - based indices all had negative weekly returns, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices having the largest declines. This week, the release of macro - economic data and important events will affect the market. With the approaching of important meetings and the potential Fed rate cuts, the market is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest - rate bond yields declined across all tenors and varieties, and credit - bond yields also decreased. Overseas credit risks led to a decline in risk appetite, but the compound negative factors in the bond market have not been fundamentally resolved. It is advisable to take partial profits during risk - event shocks. The Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month will be the key to determining market risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the National Day, supply was temporarily halted and is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The supply recovery is relatively slow, and coking coal has long - position value. After the holiday, the first round of coke price increases started, supported by steel mills' demand [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Last Friday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The fundamental situation shows that the price is undervalued, and with the improvement of demand and the decline of production, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract [8]. - **Glass**: After the National Day, environmental protection and macro - policy expectations cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to observe and wait for a reversal to consider going long [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated greatly due to trade - related news. Although the price increase suppresses demand, the demand in the fourth quarter has room for improvement. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea decreased, and the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum changed. The demand in the peak season is weak, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is decreasing well. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may become looser. Refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to observe or short on highs [18]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production decreased in September, and the supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter. The downstream consumption is weak, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [18]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the delay of the US PPI data and the risk of government shutdown, the safe - haven sentiment increased. With the expectation of rate cuts and concerns about the US economy, the prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are new maintenance plans in the short - term supply, and the demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed for the pressure at 2450 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6400 - 6700 is to be observed [24][25]. - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement pressures the raw material price, but the reduction of rubber arrivals supports the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the support at 14500 is to be observed [26][27]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be focused on [28]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost is affected by macro factors, the supply has an increasing expectation, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6800, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6500 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is light, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is in excess. The 01 contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the recent increase in seed cotton prices has led to a situation of grabbing cotton. However, due to the uncertainty between China and the US, the outlook is bearish [35]. - **PTA**: The international oil price is affected by geopolitical factors, the PTA spot price is low, and the supply - demand situation leads to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 4350 - 4600 [34][35]. - **Apples**: The price of late - maturing Fuji apples shows a polarization, and good - quality apples are in high demand. The expected output this year is stable, but the quality has declined, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [36][37]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the ordering progress in different regions varies. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the weight of pigs is relatively high, and the entry of secondary fattening has weakened recently. In the medium to long term, the supply will remain high before the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust short positions according to different contracts [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is supported by improved storage conditions and increased procurement, but the post - holiday demand is weak. In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate is slowing down, but the capacity clearance still takes time. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for spot guidance [42][43][44]. - **Corn**: Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is under seasonal pressure. In the medium to long term, the cost has support, and the demand is moderately weak. The 11 - contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure from harvest and slow exports, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 for the M2601 contract [45][46]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the callback of oils is limited. The 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 8150 - 8200, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively. It is recommended to go long after the callback [47][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market has limited short - term bullish factors and is expected to trade in a narrow range. The price of the M2601 contract is likely to rise slightly, but the short - term upward strength is limited. It is recommended to cautiously go long on M2601 in the short term, and spot enterprises can price the 11 - 1 January basis at low points [8]. - The oil market has a mixed fundamental situation, and the futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long - term, it is advisable to take a bullish view on oils. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, paying attention to specific price ranges [82]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of October 18, the East China spot price was 2,870 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2601 contract closed at 2,868 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 01 + 0 yuan/ton, with the basis price up 20 yuan/ton. The US soybean price fluctuated around 1,000 cents/bushel, and the domestic soybean meal price was supported by cost [8][10]. 1.2 Supply - The USDA October report was postponed due to the US government shutdown, with a downward - adjustment expectation for yield. In September, the US soybean planting area was raised to 81.1 million acres, the yield was lowered to 53.5 bushels/acre, and the ending stocks were raised to 300 million bushels. Brazil's sowing progress as of October 16 was 23.2%, higher than 17.83% in the same period last year. China's soybean arrivals in October were around 8.5 million tons, and the monthly crushing volume was over 9 million tons. In November, arrivals are expected to drop to around 8 million tons [8]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic aquaculture profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand, with a year - on - year increase of over 7%. The proportion of soybean meal in the formula increased year - on - year. It is expected that the demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter will increase by over 5% year - on - year, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of over 9 million tons. As of the latest data, the national soybean inventory of oil mills rose to 7.6576 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons [8]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season dropped to 1,135 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 980 cents/bushel. The Brazilian and US soybean premium quotes are stable. The calculated domestic soybean meal cost is 2,990 yuan/ton for US Gulf soybeans and 3,160 yuan/ton for Brazilian soybeans [8]. 2. Oils 2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of the week of October 17, the palm oil 01 contract dropped 130 yuan/ton to 9,308 yuan/ton, the soybean oil 01 contract dropped 46 yuan/ton to 8,256 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil 01 contract dropped 200 yuan/ton to 9,861 yuan/ton. The spot prices of corresponding oils also decreased to varying degrees [82][83]. 2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB September report showed an inventory build - up, which was bearish. In October, the production may continue to increase, but the export data was strong. The inventory build - up in Malaysia in October is expected to be limited, and then it will enter the traditional production - reduction season. In China, the palm oil inventory as of October 10 was 547,600 tons, and the arrivals in October - November are estimated to be 230,000 and 190,000 tons respectively [82]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - The potential China - US summit and high domestic US soybean crushing volume in September boosted the US soybean price, but there are still many bearish factors. In China, the soybean arrivals in September were over 12 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory continued to build up to 1.2651 million tons as of the week of October 10. The supply gap after November has been narrowed [82]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The visit of the Canadian foreign minister to China led to an expectation of eased China - Canada relations and resumed rapeseed imports, which short - term suppressed the domestic rapeseed oil price. However, there is a supply gap before the large - scale import of Australian and Russian rapeseed oils in November [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - factors still have a significant impact on copper prices. Although there is a slight divergence within the Fed on the future interest - rate cut pace, the probability of a rate cut remains high. Geopolitical factors and trade issues increase market risk sentiment. In the short term, macro - risks put pressure on copper prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook for copper is optimistic. For aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, the prices are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and different trading strategies are recommended accordingly [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Data - **10/13 - 10/19 Economic Data**: China's September exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations. The eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7. The US September NFIB small - business optimism index was 98.8%. China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. The US September government budget was 198 billion US dollars [12]. - **10/20 - 10/26 Forecast Data**: Forecasts include China's October LPR, real estate development investment, fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail sales, as well as data from the UK, the US, and the eurozone such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index [21]. 3.2 Metal Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: High - level shock adjustment, with the price range of 83,000 - 87,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic smelter maintenance continues, output is at a low level, but recycled copper supply has rebounded. High copper prices suppress domestic consumption, and new orders are limited. Export windows are open, and domestic inventory accumulation is not significant. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions on dips and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: High - level shock, with the price range of 20,700 - 21,200. - **Supply and Demand**: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased. Alumina production capacity decreased, and inventory increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. The demand in the peak season was weak, and high aluminum prices restricted the increase in downstream processing. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. For alumina, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [2]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory decline, with the price range of 21,500 - 22,500. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic refined zinc production remains at a high level, and overseas LME zinc inventory reduction supports LME zinc prices. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory has reached a new high this year. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound short - biased trading [2]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: Sideways shock, with the price range of 17,000 - 17,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is generally stable, and the consumption of recycled lead is weak. After the holiday, affected by production resumption and positive news, the market sentiment is optimistic, but the rise may be delayed due to Sino - US trade frictions. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips within the range of 16,900 - 17,300 and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound shock, with the price range of 118,000 - 122,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade frictions affect nickel prices. Nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The downstream stainless steel market is weak, and the cost of nickel sulfate has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [3]. 3.2.6 Stainless Steel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound decline. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has been restored, and downstream demand is weak. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [3]. 3.2.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: Overall oscillatory upward, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaic consumption are weak. The short - term tariff increase expectation is negative for tin prices. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. 3.2.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory adjustment, with the price range of 8,200 - 9,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Production and inventory have increased. The production of polycrystalline silicon has increased, and the production of organic silicon intermediates has decreased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.9 Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: High - level wide - range shock, with the price range of 48,000 - 56,000. - **Supply and Demand**: The production and inventory of polycrystalline silicon have increased. The production of photovoltaic industry chain links has different trends. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.10 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory stabilization, with the lower support at 72,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. The demand for energy storage terminals is good, and the production schedule of large - scale battery cells and cathode materials has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to trade with caution and pay attention to the progress of mining rights in Yichun and the resumption of production of lithium mines [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, and the tightness of London silver spot, precious metal prices continued to rise. With market divergence on the annual interest - rate cut amplitude and a downward - adjusted expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts, and under the support of interest - rate cut expectations and避险情绪, precious metal prices are expected to remain supported. It is recommended to pay attention to the US September CPI data released this week [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Affected by factors such as the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, and the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, the price of US gold continued to be strong, closing at $4,268 per ounce last Friday, up 5.8% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4,400, and the lower support level is $4,100 [6]. - Similarly, due to the above factors and the tightness of London silver spot, the price of US silver continued to be strong, with a weekly increase of 6.5%, closing at $50.6 per ounce. The lower support level is $48.5, and the upper resistance level is $52 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - With the delayed release of the US September PPI data, the risk of a US government shutdown driving up避险情绪, and the tightness of London silver spot, precious metal prices continued to rise. The market has a divergence on the annual interest - rate cut amplitude, and the expected end - point of this round of interest - rate cuts is lower than before. Fed meeting minutes show that most officials think further policy relaxation this year may be appropriate. Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is evident, and the US employment situation is slowing down. Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is unlikely to be sustained. With the US economic data trending weaker, and market concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, precious metal prices are expected to be supported under the interest - rate cut expectations and避险情绪. It is recommended to pay attention to the US September CPI data released this week [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators No specific analysis content provided, only some data charts such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, and bond yields are presented. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The Eurozone October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7, down from the previous value of 26.1 [25]. - The US October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was - 12.8, far lower than the expected 9 and the previous value of 23.2 [25]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Fed Governor Milan said that the resurgence of Sino - US trade tensions has brought new downward risks to the economic outlook, making it more important for the Fed to cut the target interest rate. He believes it is more urgent to take a more neutral policy stance [26]. 3.6 Inventory - For gold, this week, the COMEX inventory decreased by 25,926.98 kg to 1,216,367.63 kg, while the SHFE inventory increased by 13,878 kg to 84,606 kg [13]. - For silver, this week, the COMEX inventory decreased by 404,484.72 kg to 15,845,968 kg, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 248,958 kg to 920,103 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of September 23, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in gold was 259,261 contracts, an increase of 3,182 contracts from last week [13]. - As of September 23, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in silver was 49,507 contracts, an increase of 729 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Tuesday (October 20), at 20:30, the US September non - farm payrolls change seasonally adjusted and the US September unemployment rate will be released [37]. - On Friday (October 24), at 20:30, the US September CPI annual rate unadjusted will be released [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins have weak price support and are expected to fluctuate weakly. The PE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with attention on the 6800 support level, and the PP main contract is also expected to fluctuate weakly, with attention on the 6500 support level. The LP spread is expected to widen [8]. - The cost of oil - based olefins production profit has recovered, while the profit of coal - based olefins production has declined. There is an expectation of increased supply, maintaining supply pressure. The recovery of PE agricultural film production is good, but overall order follow - up is limited, downstream restocking is insufficient, and there is short - term inventory accumulation pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 17, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,874 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32%. The average price of LDPE was 9,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71%, the average price of HDPE was 7,762.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%, and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,477.06 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90%. The LLDPE South China basis was 603.06 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 18.64%, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 33 yuan/ton (- 4) [8][10]. 3.1.2 Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on October 17 was - 33 yuan/ton (- 4), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 24 yuan/ton (+ 34), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 57 yuan/ton (- 30) [15]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of various PE products in different regions showed different degrees of change, with some rising and some falling [16][17]. - **Cost**: This week, WTI crude oil closed at $57.25 per barrel, a decrease of $0.99 per barrel from last week, and Brent crude oil closed at $61.34 per barrel, a decrease of $0.75 per barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,080 yuan/ton (unchanged) [19][61]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 91 yuan/ton, an increase of 275 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 494 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from last week [23]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese polyethylene production was 81.76%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 650,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.05%. The weekly maintenance loss was 106,800 tons, an increase of 19,200 tons from last week [28]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Many companies have completed or are planning to start production, with a total planned production capacity of 6.13 million tons [31]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' PE production lines are in maintenance, with uncertain restart times for some [32]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall domestic agricultural film operating rate was 42.89%, an increase of 3.28% from last week; the PE packaging film operating rate was 52.19%, a decrease of 0.44% from last week, and the PE pipe operating rate was 32.00%, a decrease of 0.67% from last week [34]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 33%, with a difference of 2.3% from the annual average level. The difference between low - pressure film and the annual average data is obvious, currently accounting for 2.2%, with a difference of 4.5% from the annual average level [38]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic plastic inventory was 545,600 tons, an increase of 21,100 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 4.02% [40]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 17, the number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,685 lots, a decrease of 22 lots from last week [44]. 3.2 PP 3.2.1 Market Review - On October 17, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,551 yuan/ton, a decrease of 171 yuan/ton from last weekend, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54% [48]. 3.2.2 Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various PP products showed different degrees of decline [50]. - **Basis and Month - spread**: On October 17, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6,790 yuan/ton (- 1.26%). The PP basis was 239 yuan/ton (+ 84), and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 52 yuan/ton (- 12) [54]. - **Cost**: This week, WTI crude oil closed at $57.25 per barrel, a decrease of $0.99 per barrel from last week, and Brent crude oil closed at $61.34 per barrel, a decrease of $0.75 per barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,080 yuan/ton (unchanged) [61]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 278.53 yuan/ton, an increase of 373.97 yuan/ton from last weekend, and the profit of coal - based PP was 3.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 248.35 yuan/ton from last weekend [65]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 78.22%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 801,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.61%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 69,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% [70]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises' PP production lines are in maintenance, with uncertain restart times for some [74]. - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 51.85% (+ 0.09). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.26% (unchanged), the BOPP operating rate was 61.19% (+ 0.48%), the injection molding operating rate was 58.75% (+ 0.13%), and the pipe operating rate was 36.60% (- 0.33%) [76]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the polypropylene import profit was - $558.29 per ton, a decrease of $20.57 per ton from last week. The export profit was - $23.04 per ton, a decrease of $11.95 per ton from last week [81]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 678,700 tons (- 0.40%); the inventory of two major state - owned oil companies increased by 6.09% month - on - month; the trader inventory decreased by 8.62% month - on - month, and the port inventory decreased by 1.16% month - on - month [85]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On October 17, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,313 lots, an increase of 535 lots from last week [90].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of live pigs remains, and the futures price is running weakly. In the short term, there is a risk of the pig price rising and then falling back, and in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to strengthen in the second half of next year but with caution [4][46]. - The demand for eggs has seasonally weakened, and the egg price is running weakly. In the short term, the egg price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and in the medium - to - long term, the supply pressure is still large, and the capacity clearance takes time [5][76]. - It is the new corn crop listing period, and the futures price rebound is under pressure. In the short term, the price is expected to run weakly, and in the medium - to - long term, the cost has strong support [6][96]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Feed and Livestock Perspective Summary Live Pigs - **Period and Spot Ends**: As of October 17, the national spot price was 11.1 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2501 was 11,670 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 01 contract was - 390 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price first declined and then rebounded, and the futures price was under pressure [4][46]. - **Supply End**: The inventory of fertile sows increased slowly from May to November 2024 and decreased slightly after December. The overall sow capacity is abundant, and the production performance has improved. The supply of live pigs will be high until the first half of next year. In October, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises increased, and the secondary fattening and pressure - barring sentiment increased [4][46]. - **Demand End**: The weekly slaughter start - up rate and slaughter volume rebounded from a low level. The cold weather increased demand, but the macro - economy and policies limited the increase in demand. The fresh - sales rate decreased, and the frozen - product storage rate increased [4][46]. - **Cost End**: The prices of piglets and binary fertile sows decreased, and the losses of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets for fattening increased. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising 5 - month - old fattening pigs decreased. The pig - grain ratio is below 6:1, and the state plans to purchase 50,000 tons of pork [4][46]. - **Weekly Summary**: In October, the supply increased, and the short - term pig price lacked the power to continue rising. In the medium - to - long term, the supply will remain high until the first half of next year, and the price in the second half of next year is expected to strengthen but with caution [4][46]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 11 contract, moderately reduce short positions; for the 01, 03, and 05 contracts, adopt a short - selling strategy; for the 07 and 09 contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing [4][46]. Eggs - **Period and Spot Ends**: As of October 17, the average price of the main egg - producing areas was 2.99 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main egg 2511 contract was 2,805 yuan/500 kg, down 1 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis was - 275 yuan/500 kg, up 1 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The egg price first declined, then stabilized, and then rebounded slightly, and the futures price first rose and then fell [5][76]. - **Supply End**: In October, the number of newly - opened laying hens remained high. The elimination of old hens increased, and the egg - laying rate recovered. In the medium - to - long term, the supply growth rate will slow down, but the supply pressure is still large, and the capacity clearance takes time [5][76]. - **Demand End**: After the "Double Festival", the terminal demand weakened. The cold weather increased the storage period of eggs and stimulated the inventory demand [5][76]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short term, the egg price will fluctuate at a low level. In the medium - to - long term, the supply pressure is still large, and the capacity clearance takes time [5][76]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 11 contract, pay attention to the spot price; for the 12 and 01 contracts, try short - selling at high prices [5][76]. Corn - **Period and Spot Ends**: As of October 17, the corn closing price at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main corn 2511 contract was 2,108 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis was 42 yuan/ton, 13 yuan/ton weaker than last Friday. The price of new corn in the Northeast decreased, and the futures price fluctuated widely at the bottom [6][96]. - **Supply End**: The old - crop inventory of traders is not high. After the festival, the supply of new corn in the Northeast increased, and the production situation is good, with expected high yields. The import of corn and other grains is at a low level [6][96]. - **Demand End**: The increase in livestock and poultry inventory drives the increase in feed demand, but the high price difference between corn and wheat and the listing of new crops limit the demand for corn. The deep - processing profit has turned positive, and the start - up rate has rebounded but is still at a low level [6][96]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short term, the price of corn is under seasonal pressure. In the medium - to - long term, the cost has strong support, and the demand is moderately weak [6][96]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 11 contract, adopt a short - selling strategy; pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [6][96].