期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 14 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆豆粕： | 震 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, while treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended for observation, nickel is recommended for observation or shorting at high prices, tin is recommended for trading within a range, gold is recommended for building positions at low prices after a full price correction, and silver is recommended for trading within a range [1][11][16][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are all expected to fluctuate; soda ash is recommended for observation; and the outlook for soda ash is weakly fluctuating [1][20][28]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to rebound with fluctuations, apples are expected to fluctuate, and PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][30]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly, eggs are expected to show a weak trend, corn is expected to fluctuate strongly, soybean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and oils are expected to fluctuate [1][33][38]. Core Views The report analyzes various futures products based on factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, domestic policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit situations. It believes that Sino - US trade negotiations have a significant impact on the market, with short - term tariff easing exceeding expectations, but the actual impact on demand is still expected to exist. Different products have different trends due to their own supply - demand and cost characteristics, and investors need to pay attention to relevant factors such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and cost fluctuations [5][20]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Sino - US trade situation improvement boosts the strong rebound of US stocks. The negotiation process exceeds expectations, and the index futures may fluctuate strongly. However, there are risks of callback after reaching the previous high [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Sino - US trade negotiations may reduce the pressure of export decline. The potential downward space of bond yields is limited, but there are still phased opportunities. Short - term attention should be paid to the fermentation of reverse trading [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The futures price rebounds, and the market expectation improves due to Sino - US negotiations. The supply - demand pattern shows signs of deterioration, and the price is expected to fluctuate under the background of low valuation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply shows a slight decline, and the demand has limited upward space. Considering the approaching traditional off - season and other factors, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the coke market has no prominent short - term supply - demand contradictions, but there are adjustment pressures. Both are expected to fluctuate [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global trade situation eases, but the impact of the trade war on demand may gradually appear. The fundamentals support the price, but the upward space is limited, and it is recommended for cautious trading within a range [11]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite increases, and the demand has a weakening expectation. It is recommended for observation [13]. - **Nickel**: The supply is in an excess pattern, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [14][15]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. It is recommended for trading within a range [16]. - **Gold and Silver**: Sino - US trade negotiations reduce market risk aversion, but the tariff policy is expected to be repeated. Both are expected to fluctuate [18]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The demand is weak, and the supply has new investment plans. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to tariff progress [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price fluctuates strongly in the short term, and the supply is expected to be relatively sufficient in the medium term, with limited demand growth [22]. - **Rubber**: The macro - good news boosts the market sentiment, and the price is expected to fluctuate [23]. - **Urea**: The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [25][26]. - **Methanol**: The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. The decline is expected to slow down [26][27]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The short - term news has a certain boost, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [27][28]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is still at a high level, and the downstream is not optimistic. It is recommended for short - term observation and attention to the 9 - 1 positive spread opportunity [28]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global supply - demand is still loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [30]. - **Apples**: The current inventory is low, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the fruit - setting situation [30]. - **PTA**: The cost collapses, and the terminal export orders are poor. The price is not optimistic, and attention should be paid to the support at 4200 [32]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply increases and is postponed, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [33][34]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price may be supported, but the long - term supply pressure increases. It is recommended to short at high prices [34]. - **Corn**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at the lower edge of the range [35]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is loose, and the price is expected to be weak. The long - term cost increases, and the price is expected to be strong. Different strategies are recommended for different periods [37]. - **Oils**: The short - term rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to the pressure levels. The long - term trend is expected to decline first and then rebound [38][43].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for stock index: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [2] - Investment rating for treasury bonds: Bullish in the short term [3] Group 2: Core Views - For stock index: The easing of Sino-US trade tensions has boosted a strong rebound in US stocks. Traders currently expect the Fed to cut interest rates only twice this year, and Goldman Sachs has postponed its Fed rate cut expectation from July to December. The Sino-US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement was released, with China's Ministry of Commerce stating that China and the US have cancelled a total of 91% of the additional tariffs and suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. The Sino - US negotiation process has exceeded expectations, and the stock index may oscillate with a slight upward bias. However, the Shanghai Composite Index has returned to the level before the implementation of tariffs, and there is still pressure from additional tariffs in the current fundamentals, as well as the expected disturbance of Trump's changing attitude. When the market sentiment is high, attention should be paid to the possible callback risk after reaching the previous high [1] - For treasury bonds: Considering the relatively high density and intensity of recent domestic policy introductions, the market's expectations for the number and cumulative amplitude of subsequent interest rate cuts will also decline to some extent, and the potential downward space for bond yields is relatively limited. The low - odds situation in the bond market will not improve significantly. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the development of reverse trading and patiently wait for the market to gradually stabilize from the high - volatility environment [2] Group 3: Market Review - Stock index: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.23%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.77%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.48%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 1.56% [4] - Treasury bonds: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.46%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.20%, the 30 - year main contract fell 1.31%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.08% [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Stock index: The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market will oscillate with a slight upward bias [5] - Treasury bonds: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract will oscillate with a slight downward bias [7] Group 5: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/12 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3853.00 | 1.23 | 61843 | 152926 | | 2025/05/12 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2686.60 | 0.77 | 31684 | 50672 | | 2025/05/12 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5688.00 | 1.48 | 52449 | 101404 | | 2025/05/12 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6037.00 | 1.56 | 134023 | 170704 | | 2025/05/12 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.53 | - 0.46 | 110974 | 160433 | | 2025/05/12 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.89 | - 0.20 | 77590 | 129518 | | 2025/05/12 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 118.74 | - 1.31 | 122849 | 71751 | | 2025/05/12 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.28 | - 0.08 | 48586 | 74392 | [9]

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 13 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.9 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.6-15.4 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.4-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15.1- 15.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，二育栏舍利用率已超过 一半，部分养殖户预计节后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升，二次育肥 进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消费转淡， 且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥滚动进场 仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进 出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提 升，在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏 高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注二育 介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限，处于均衡 区间上限 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格大幅反弹，杭州中天螺纹钢 3200 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 50 元/吨，10 合约基差 118（-10），中美会谈成果超预期，双 方大幅互降关税，市场预期明显好转。国内政策方面，5 月 7 日，三部 门发布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期，货币政策利多落地，不过盘面高 开低走，市场仍在期待财政政策发力；产业方面，上周螺纹钢产量、表需 双降，库存小幅累积，供需格局有转差迹象，当然也有五一假期因素影 响，需求是否已经开始季节性回落还需进一步观察。后市而言：估值方 面，螺纹钢期货价格仍低于电炉谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱 动方面，政策端，中美贸易环境改善，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政 策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但需求仍面临季节性下滑压力，关 注需求变化，低估值背景下，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 2025/5/13 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 张佩云 ◆ 铁矿石 周一，中美会谈成果营造良好预期，盘面向上回调。供给方面，全球发 ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 12 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 0.77%至 78260 元/吨。中 美在经贸领域达成一系列重要共识及相关贸易协议，结果超出市场预期， 全球贸易紧张局势进一步缓解，美元指数隔夜大涨，压制了隔夜有色金 属表现，钱铜价维持高位小幅震荡。现货市场，高月差、高铜价背景下， 下游企业入市采购情绪低迷，大多维持刚需采购为主，静待交割换月， 现货成交氛围较为清淡。全球贸易紧张局势进一步缓解，铜价继续回归 基本面逻辑。目前铜精矿 TC 继续下移，冶炼厂产出后续存在下滑趋势， 不过冶炼端的原料压力虽然较大，但近期实际对产出的影响相对较小， 消费表现依然稳中有进，但高月差抑制了近期消费表现，铜价或继续维 持高 位震荡 。技 术上看 ，沪铜 短期维 持偏 强震荡 ，整体 运行于 74500-80000 之间，近期关注 78500 一线压力，建议区间谨慎交易。 ◆ 镍： 截至 5 月 12 日收盘，沪镍主力 06 合约上涨 2%至 126130 元/吨。宏观 面，美国 4 月谘商会消费者信心指数下降，核心 PCE 同环比回落，通胀 降温。外部环境影响下国内制造业 PMI 回落。 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 宏观方面，国内降息降准等一揽子金融政策落地，叠加中美经贸高层会 谈关税协商取得一定成果，政策面释放积极信号，基本面来看，本年度 国内商业库存去库加速，消费量维持高位或导致本年度后期供需偏紧， 短期棉价受多方利好背景下，短中期棉价维持震荡偏强运行。巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，2024 年巴西棉总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉有一定压力。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束， 并未出现异常天气，今年新疆丰产概率增大，以及国内一二季度抢出口， 消费前置，远期合约有压力。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国 天气值得关注，6 月美国 6.5 万亿美元国债到期，中美贸易谈判显得尤 为重要，若向好的形势发展，美国通胀缓和、国内通缩也得到缓和，美 联储降息概率上升，更加有利于经济发展，所以未来还是要看宏观形势 的发展，逐步认证，从整体上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份， 国内短中期棉花商业库存偏紧有结构性矛盾，短中期看涨，但远期丰产， 限制了棉花上涨的幅度。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：震荡偏强 现货方面：PT ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various energy and chemical products are affected by multiple factors including supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic conditions, and tariff policies. Different products show different trends in the short and medium - term, with some expected to be in a low - level shock state, while others are more likely to be short - term supported but face supply pressure in the medium - term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - **Price Information**: On May 12, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4836 yuan/ton (+31), the Changzhou market price was 4650 yuan/ton (-10), the main basis was - 186 yuan/ton (+41), the Guangzhou market price was 4750 yuan/ton (0), and the Hangzhou market price was 4700 yuan/ton (-30) [2]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the long - term, demand is sluggish due to the real - estate drag, and exports are restricted. Supply has new investment plans, and inventory is still high. It is in a state of loose supply - demand [2]. - **Macro - factors**: China and the US will reduce tariffs on each other's goods within 90 days. The short - term tariff relaxation exceeds expectations, but the actual impact on demand is still expected to exist. The domestic first - quarter data is good, and there may be some support for exports in the second quarter. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short - term [2]. Caustic Soda - **Price Information**: On May 12, the main SH09 contract closed at 2545 yuan/ton (+69), the Shandong market mainstream price was 830 yuan/ton (+10), and the converted 100% price was 2594 yuan/ton (+31). The liquid chlorine price in Shandong was 150 yuan/ton (-50). From May 13, a Shandong alumina manufacturer raised the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the short - term, production reduction and tariff relaxation provide support. In the medium - term, supply is still relatively sufficient, and demand growth is limited. The 09 contract is still mainly short - biased in the medium - term [3]. - **Key Points to Watch**: Pay attention to the delivery volume of Weiqiao, inventory reduction, alumina production and export, the possible support of weak liquid chlorine prices for caustic soda, and the scale and continuity of maintenance from June to August [3]. Rubber - **Price Information**: On May 12, rubber was running strongly. As of May 11, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 61.87 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45 tons and an increase of 0.73%. There are also detailed price data for raw materials, finished products, and basis differences [4][5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the short - term, the supply of latex is slow, and the raw material price remains high, providing bottom support for the rubber price. The inventory in Qingdao is slightly increasing, and the market is expected to fluctuate [4]. Urea - **Price Information**: The main urea contract fell 0.26% to close at 1897 yuan/ton. The daily average price in the Henan market increased by 23 yuan/ton to 1918 yuan/ton, and the daily average price in the Shandong market increased by 68 yuan/ton to 1916 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is stable, with a daily output of 19.5 - 200,000 tons. The demand for rice fertilization in the south and corn base fertilization in the north will be concentrated, and there is also some elasticity in exports. The price is expected to be in a high - level shock state in the short - term [6]. - **Key Points to Watch**: Pay attention to the start - up of compound fertilizer, urea plant production reduction and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [6]. Methanol - **Price Information**: The main methanol contract rose 1.79% to close at 2270 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the Taicang market increased by 35 yuan/ton to 2425 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is expected to continue to increase, while downstream demand is wait - and - see. It is expected that the decline will slow down, and the reference range for the 09 contract is 2200 - 2350 [7][8]. - **Key Points to Watch**: Pay attention to macro - changes, methanol plant maintenance, methanol - to - olefin start - up, coal prices, and international crude oil prices [8]. Plastic - **Price Information**: On May 12, the main plastic contract rose 1.08% to close at 7090 yuan/ton. There are also price data for different types of plastics [9]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In April, the plastic price dropped significantly due to tariffs. The supply side has new capacity in the second quarter, and the demand side is weak. The inventory of upstream enterprises and traders has increased, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [9]. - **Key Points to Watch**: Pay attention to downstream demand, domestic stimulus policies, tariff games, and crude oil price fluctuations [9].

长江期货贵金属周报 贸易政策谈判在即，价格延续震荡 2025/5/12 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 3610 2023/07/03 2023/08/03 2023/09/03 2023/10/03 2023/11/03 2023/12/03 2024/01/03 2024/02/03 2024/03/03 2024/04/03 2024/05/03 2024/06/03 2024/07/03 2024/08/03 2024/09/03 2024/10/03 2024/11/03 2024/12/03 2025/01/03 2025/02/03 2025/03/03 2025/04/03 ...

黑色：低估值弱驱动 价格震荡运行 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/5/12 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 张佩云 执业编号：F03090752 投资咨询号：Z0019837 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 白天霖 执业编号：F03138690 主要观点 上周螺纹钢价格偏弱运行，现货与期货跌幅相当，基差窄幅波动。宏观方面，5月7日，三部门发布一揽子金融政 策稳市场稳预期，货币政策利多落地，不过盘面高开低走，市场仍在期待财政政策发力，当地时间5月10日上午，中美 经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦开始举行；产业方面，上周螺纹钢产量、表需双降，库存小幅累积，供需格局有转差迹象， 当然也有五一假期因素影响，需求是否已经开始季节性回落还需进一步观察。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格已经低于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，预计中 美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需 求季节性下滑，市场预期偏弱，低估值背景下，预计价格震荡运行。 交易策略 观望或者短线交易。 01 螺纹 ...