Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Chain Weekly Report [2] - Date: September 22, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Industrial Service Headquarters | Non - ferrous Metals Team [1] - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings and Strategy Recommendations - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Strategy Recommendations: - Alumina: Suggested to wait and see [5] - Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum): Suggested to go long on dips [5] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Suggested to go long on dips or use the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [5] Group 3: Core Views - Despite inventory accumulation during the peak season, due to the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut and the opening of domestic policy windows, it's recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [4] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year yields), the US dollar index, the US Treasury real yield, inflation expectations, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan [7][8] 2. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tightening, with prices in Shanxi and Henan remaining stable. Mining activities are restricted by safety supervision, environmental inspections, and the rainy season. Since mid - August, alumina plants have increasingly used imported ores [11] - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.1 per dry ton week - on - week to $74.9 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea supports the price, but the sharp drop in alumina prices exerts downward pressure. Long - term contract price negotiations for the fourth quarter will start in mid - to late September [11] 3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of alumina was 11,462 tons, unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 9,795 tons, an increase of 40 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 85.15% [15] - The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 3,010.2 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37.3 yuan per ton [15] - The national alumina inventory was 371.9 tons, an increase of 3.9 tons week - on - week. The alumina industry is in a high - stable production state, with new capacities in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north gradually entering a stable production state [15] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.2 tons, unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 4,442.9 tons, an increase of 2 tons week - on - week. The remaining capacity of Baise Yinhai's technical renovation project continued to resume production [22] 5. Inventory - The report shows the historical data of the social inventory of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) aluminum futures inventory, and London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum inventory from 2021 to 2025 [28][29][30][31] 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The starting rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.4% week - on - week to 55.9% [34] - The four - ministry joint notice on standardizing investment promotion behaviors requires the cleanup of local government's illegal tax rebates. The decline in aluminum prices has increased the enthusiasm of scrap aluminum traders to sell, and with the continuous mild recovery of the downstream, orders have recovered moderately, and the starting rate of recycled aluminum alloy has continued to rise [34] 7. Downstream Start - up - The starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1% week - on - week to 62.2% [45] - Aluminum profiles: The starting rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises increased by 0.6% week - on - week to 54.6%. Industrial profiles, especially photovoltaic and automotive profiles, showed different trends, while the construction profile market remained sluggish [45] - Aluminum strips: The starting rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises decreased by 0.4% week - on - week to 68.2%. High aluminum prices at the beginning of the week suppressed downstream orders, and the increase in scrap aluminum prices may affect future starting rates [45] - Aluminum cables: The starting rate of domestic cable leading enterprises remained stable at 65.2%. Enterprises focused on power grid orders and some photovoltaic alloy cable orders, and purchased raw materials based on rigid demand due to high aluminum prices [49] - Primary aluminum alloy: The starting rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 57.6%. Short - term procurement slowdown in the downstream has affected the starting rate, and although most enterprises are optimistic about the peak season in September, some are more cautious about short - term expansion [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall view is that the macro - expectation is positive, and it is advisable to buy on dips [2][3] Summary by Directory 01 Black Plate Performance Comparison - The black plate showed a strong trend last week, with significant increases in coking coal and coke futures prices. The market focused on coal mine over - production inspections, and the central environmental protection inspection team demanded rectifications in the steel and coking industries in some provinces [3][4] 02 Futures Market Rise - Fall Comparison - The performance of the futures market was differentiated, with the black plate showing obvious strength [6][7] 03 Spot Prices - The second round of coke price cuts was implemented, while other varieties had small price increases [8] 04 Profits and Valuations - The profitability of steel mills slightly decreased, and the valuation of rebar futures increased [9][10] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - The steel demand improved month - on - month, and rebar inventory started to decline. The performance of demand in October should be closely monitored [3][12][13] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Global iron ore shipments increased, and the iron ore inventory of steel mills significantly rose [20][21] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production continued to increase, and the inventory of coking coal in coking plants and ports increased significantly [3][23][24] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production remained stable, and the total coke inventory continued to accumulate [26][27] 09 Variety Spreads - The rebar's on - paper profit decreased, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar narrowed [29][30] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - There were various events including Sino - US economic and trade talks, central environmental protection inspections, Fed's interest rate cuts, and phone calls between leaders of China and the US. Also, there were reports on project shipments, coal mine over - production inspections, and environmental restrictions in Tangshan [35] Trading Strategies - For rebar, it is advisable to buy on dips, with RB2601 focusing on the [3100 - 3250] range [3] - For coking coal and coke, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being, or engage in short - term trading, focusing on the resumption progress of coking coal production [3] - For iron ore, it may run with a slightly strong trend, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullish and buying on dips; Treasury bonds are recommended to stay on the sidelines [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; Glass is recommended for buying on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for sidelines or buying on dips with short - term trading; Aluminum is recommended for buying on dips after pullbacks; Nickel is recommended for sidelines or shorting on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [1][10][11][15][16][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate; Soda ash is recommended for shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [1][19][21][23][25][26][28][29][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA is expected to oscillate within the range of 4600 - 4950; Apples are expected to oscillate strongly; Jujubes are expected to oscillate weakly [1][34][35][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended for shorting on rallies; Corn is expected to oscillate widely; Soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly; Oils are expected to oscillate strongly after a high - level correction [1][38][40][41][42][43] Core Viewpoints The report provides trading strategies for various futures products based on their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It believes that the macro - financial market has long - term potential, while different sectors in the commodity market have different trends. For example, some products are in a range - bound state, some are affected by seasonal factors, and some are influenced by policy and international trade factors [1][5][7][11][34][38] Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: The market is in a short - term shock, but in the medium - term, it is expected to benefit from the loose US dollar liquidity environment. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market adjusted on Friday, and the technical repair may be over. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and focus on the results of the China - US presidential call [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, with coal prices rising across the board [7] - **Rebar**: The short - term pattern of weak industry and strong macro remains. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The fundamentals are stable, and it is affected by coal news. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the 1130 - 1160 support [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to remain in high - level shock before the holiday, and it is recommended to trade cautiously on the long side [11] - **Aluminum**: The price is under pressure from alumina, but the demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the long AD short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply - demand side changes little, and it is recommended to short moderately on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended for range trading, with the reference range of 265,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai Tin 10 contract [16] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended for range trading, with reference ranges of 9800 - 10500 for the Shanghai Silver 12 contract and 820 - 855 for the Shanghai Gold 12 contract [16][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic Soda**: Considering pre - holiday restocking and alumina production expectations, it is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2550 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate, focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [25] - **Rubber**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range arrangement, focusing on the 15600 support [25] - **Urea**: The supply is slightly lower than last year, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the 1630 - 1650 support for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [26] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The downstream demand is improving, and the supply pressure is relieved. It is expected to oscillate, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [30] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and go long on the 05 contract due to the expected supply surplus [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply - demand situation is improving, but the new cotton production may increase. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [34] - **PTA**: The cost and supply - demand are in a tug - of - war. It is expected to oscillate within the 4600 - 4950 range [34] - **Apples**: Affected by weather and market conditions, the price is expected to be strong [35] - **Jujubes**: The consumption is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies and focus on the long 05, 07 short 03 arbitrage [38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the long - term growth rate may slow down. It is recommended to short lightly on rallies for the near - term contracts and be cautious about shorting for the 12 and 01 contracts [40] - **Corn**: It is in the period of new and old crop connection, and the price is under seasonal pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and focus on the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient in September - October, and the price is under pressure, but it is supported by cost. It is recommended to focus on the 2980 support for the M2601 contract [42] - **Oils**: The domestic oils have a high - level correction, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on some arbitrage opportunities [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For apples, with the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking progressing, the bag - removing work of late Fuji is sporadic, and western rainfall may delay large - scale bag - removing. New - season apples in Shandong have a wide price range due to quality, and western early - maturing Fuji trading is ending. Inventory apple sales in Shandong have slowed. With the expectation of new fruit listing, apple prices face pressure and may show a trend of weak growth and oscillatory adjustment [9]. - For red dates, Xinjiang gray dates are in the sugar - increasing period with no extreme weather in the weather forecast. The arrival of goods in the sales area is small, and good - quality goods have a relatively strong price. With the expectation of new fruit listing, red date prices are expected to decline oscillatingly [43]. 3. Summary by Directory Apple Section 01. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, as Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking progresses, late Fuji bag - removing is sporadic. Western rainfall may delay large - scale bag - removing. New - season Shandong Red General apples have a wide price range due to quality, and western early - maturing Fuji trading is ending. Inventory apples in Shandong have slow sales. Future apple prices face pressure and may show oscillatory adjustment [9]. 02. Market Review - This week, the main apple contract oscillated horizontally. The apple basis was 314 yuan, up 1 from last week [13]. 03. Apple Wholesale Market Price Trend - As of September 12, 2025, the wholesale price of all - variety apples was 9.70 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan/kg from last week; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.38 yuan/kg, the same as last week. The spot price of Fuji apples has been oscillating recently [16]. 04. Apple Main Producing Areas Situation - In Shandong, the prices of different grades of apples vary. For early - maturing varieties, Red General has quality problems but good sales due to price advantages. In Shaanxi, early - maturing Fuji trading is in the later stage, and picking - green Fuji is waiting to color [22]. 05. Cold Storage Situation Analysis - As of September 17, 2025, the national main - producing areas' apple cold - storage inventory was 16.32 tons, down 4.59 tons from last week. Shandong's inventory sales have slowed due to the impact of mid - maturing varieties [24]. 06. Sales Area Market Summary - In the South China market, the number of arriving vehicles in the Guangdong Chalong market has slightly increased. The market is mainly stocked with Fuji apples, and the overall sales are average [28]. 07. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in Qixia was 0.3 yuan/jin, the same as last week [31]. 08. Substitute Product Price Analysis - As of the 38th week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six kinds of fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 6.81 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan/kg from the 37th week. The prices of different fruits have risen and fallen [35]. Red Date Section 01. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, Xinjiang gray dates are in the sugar - increasing period with no extreme weather. The arrival of goods in the sales area is small, and good - quality goods have a relatively strong price. Red date prices are expected to decline oscillatingly with the new fruit listing [43]. 02. Market Review - Xinjiang gray dates are in the sugar - increasing period. The arrival of goods in the sales area is small, and good - quality goods have a relatively strong price. Attention should be paid to weather changes and jujube fruit growth [47]. 03. Spot Price Trend - In different markets such as Hebei, Henan, and Guangdong, the supply of red dates is small, and the prices are fluctuating within a narrow range or remaining stable. The actual transaction prices vary according to origin and quality [50]. 04. Inventory Data - According to Mysteel's survey, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 9247 tons, down 74 tons from last week, a decrease of 0.79% month - on - month and an increase of 80.64% year - on - year [52]. 05. Sales Area Market Profit Analysis - The average purchase price of gray dates in the Xinjiang main - producing area is 5.33 yuan/kg, the price of first - grade finished products in the Hebei sales area is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg, and the gross profit is 2.36 yuan/kg [56].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on government bonds, recommended to hold [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][9] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to hold long positions on dips or short-term trading; neutral on aluminum, recommended to go long on dips; neutral on nickel, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][11][17] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, recommended for range trading; recommend shorting 01 contract and going long on 05 contract for soda ash [1][21][23][25] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for range trading; bullish on apples, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias; bearish on dates, recommended for range trading with a bearish bias [1][37][38][39] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias [1][41][43][45] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut has been confirmed, but the subsequent pace remains uncertain, with a moderate short-term boost to risk assets [5] - The coal industry is experiencing a "Golden September" market, with rising prices and increased market sentiment [8] - The glass market is expected to improve in the traditional peak season, with supply-side shutdown expectations and positive macro factors [10] - The copper market is affected by macro factors, with high prices weakening demand support, but there is still support from peak season demand and potential domestic policy adjustments [11] - The aluminum market is in a high and stable production state, with demand entering the peak season, but inventory accumulation indicates weak demand, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [12] - The nickel market is affected by macro and ore news in the short term, with a long-term supply surplus, recommended to short on rallies [17] - The tin market has limited supply improvement and weak downstream demand in the off-season, with support for prices, recommended for range trading [18] - The precious metals market is expected to have support below due to weakening US economic data and concerns about the fiscal situation and geopolitical situation, recommended for range trading [18][19] - The PVC market has a weak supply-demand balance, with high inventory and uncertain export sustainability, recommended for range trading [22] - The caustic soda market is expected to be volatile, with downstream restocking before the National Day and expected alumina production in the far month, recommended to pay attention to downstream restocking rhythm and export situation [24] - The styrene market is expected to be volatile, with weak supply and demand expectations, recommended to pay attention to oil prices, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies [25] - The rubber market is expected to maintain a narrow range of consolidation in the short term, with increased supply and weak demand [27] - The urea market has weak production and sales, with increased enterprise inventory and decreased port inventory, recommended to pay attention to compound fertilizer production, urea plant shutdown and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [28][29][31] - The methanol market is expected to be volatile, with supply recovering and demand weakening, recommended to pay attention to the start-up of methanol-to-olefin plants and inventory changes [31] - The polyolefin market is affected by supply pressure and weakening crude oil prices, but terminal demand is improving, recommended to pay attention to downstream demand, Sino-US talks, Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations [33] - The soda ash market is expected to fluctuate between expectations and reality, recommended to short 01 contract and go long on 05 contract [36] - The cotton market has positive expectations due to improved global supply and demand and peak season expectations, but there is pressure from increased new cotton production, recommended to prepare for hedging [37] - The PTA market has cost and supply-demand factors driving in opposite directions, with short-term price fluctuations, recommended to pay attention to the range of 4600 - 4950 [38] - The apple market is expected to be strong based on the firm prices of early-ripening fruits, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias [38] - The date market has weak consumption and high prices, with pressure increasing, recommended for range trading with a bearish bias [40] - The pig market is under pressure due to increased supply and slow demand growth, but there are restrictions on price declines from potential government policies and holiday restocking expectations, recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to an arbitrage strategy [42] - The egg market has increased supply in the short term and large long-term supply pressure, recommended to short on rallies for near-month contracts and be cautious about shorting for short-term contracts [43] - The corn market has sufficient supply in the short term and downward pressure on prices during the listing period, recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to an arbitrage strategy [45] - The soybean meal market has sufficient arrivals in September - October and is restricted by state reserve sales, with cost support, recommended to pay attention to the support level of the M2601 contract [46] - The oil market has experienced a high-level correction, with limited downward space and potential for a rebound, recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [52] Summaries by Directory Macrofinance - **Stock Indices**: The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with expectations, but the subsequent rhythm is uncertain. The A-share market may have some profit-taking on Thursday. The market volatility may further increase, and it is recommended to pay close attention to trading volume trends. Long-term bullish, recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market continues to fluctuate, with yields hovering near important resistance levels. There is a lack of trend in the bond market, and most institutions prefer short-term operations. After the adjustment, the negative factors in the market are gradually fading, and the bond market does not have a basis for a significant decline. It is recommended to hold and wait patiently [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have driven up market sentiment, with rising coal prices and increased market activity. The investment strategy is to range trade [7][8] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price fluctuated and declined on Thursday. The fundamental supply and demand are still weak, but it is the traditional peak demand season in September - October. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the support level of the RB2601 contract [8] - **Glass**: The glass market is expected to improve in the traditional peak season, with supply-side shutdown expectations and positive macro factors. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to the support level of the 01 contract [10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Fed's interest rate cut and Powell's remarks have affected the copper market. High copper prices have weakened demand support, and the market is expected to be volatile before the holiday. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips and trade cautiously [11] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is affected by factors such as the rainy season in Guinea and the production status of alumina and electrolytic aluminum. Demand is entering the peak season, but inventory accumulation indicates weak demand. It is recommended to consider an arbitrage strategy or go long on dips [12] - **Nickel**: The nickel market is affected by the Indonesian nickel ore event and the upcoming nickel ore approval work. The nickel market is in a state of surplus, but there is support from traditional peak season expectations. It is recommended to short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: The tin market has limited supply improvement and weak downstream demand in the off-season, with support for prices. It is recommended to range trade and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [18] - **Silver and Gold**: The precious metals market is expected to have support below due to weakening US economic data and concerns about the fiscal situation and geopolitical situation. It is recommended to range trade and pay attention to the US interest rate decision [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The PVC market has a weak supply-demand balance, with high inventory and uncertain export sustainability. It is recommended to range trade and pay attention to macro data, export situation, inventory, and upstream start-up [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is expected to be volatile, with downstream restocking before the National Day and expected alumina production in the far month. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream restocking rhythm and export situation [24] - **Styrene**: The styrene market is expected to be volatile, with weak supply and demand expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to oil prices, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies [25] - **Rubber**: The rubber market is expected to maintain a narrow range of consolidation in the short term, with increased supply and weak demand. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes and downstream demand [27] - **Urea**: The urea market has weak production and sales, with increased enterprise inventory and decreased port inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to compound fertilizer production, urea plant shutdown and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [28][29][31] - **Methanol**: The methanol market is expected to be volatile, with supply recovering and demand weakening. It is recommended to pay attention to the start-up of methanol-to-olefin plants and inventory changes [31] - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market is affected by supply pressure and weakening crude oil prices, but terminal demand is improving. It is recommended to range trade and pay attention to downstream demand, Sino-US talks, Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations [33] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market is expected to fluctuate between expectations and reality, with an obvious surplus in production. It is recommended to short the 01 contract and go long on the 05 contract [36] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand are improving, and the macro environment is getting better. However, the large increase in new cotton production may put pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [37] - **PTA**: The PTA market is affected by factors such as the decline in international oil prices and the restart of production facilities. The cost and supply-demand factors drive in opposite directions, with short-term price fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to the range of 4600 - 4950 [38] - **Apples**: The apple market is expected to be strong based on the firm prices of early-ripening fruits. It is recommended to range trade with a bullish bias [38] - **Dates**: The date market has weak consumption and high prices, with pressure increasing. It is recommended to range trade with a bearish bias [40] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The pig market is under pressure due to increased supply and slow demand growth, but there are restrictions on price declines from potential government policies and holiday restocking expectations. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to an arbitrage strategy [42] - **Eggs**: The egg market has increased supply in the short term and large long-term supply pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for near-month contracts and be cautious about shorting for short-term contracts [43] - **Corn**: The corn market has sufficient supply in the short term and downward pressure on prices during the listing period. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to an arbitrage strategy [45] - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market has sufficient arrivals in September - October and is restricted by state reserve sales, with cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the M2601 contract [46] - **Oils**: The oil market has experienced a high-level correction, with limited downward space and potential for a rebound. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips, while treasury bonds suggest maintaining a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading, and glass recommends buying on dips [1][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests waiting or buying on dips for short - term trading; aluminum recommends buying on dips after a pullback; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; tin and precious metals like gold and silver suggest range trading [1][10][14] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate. Soda ash recommends an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [1][18][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate. Apples are expected to be oscillating strongly, and red dates are expected to be oscillating weakly [1][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs and eggs recommend shorting on rallies. Corn is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, soybean meal is expected to have a weak oscillation, and oils are expected to be oscillating strongly [1][40][44] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are affected by macro - economic factors such as potential Fed rate cuts, while others are influenced by industry - specific supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and policy expectations [5][10][40] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Driven by technology manufacturing sectors, the index oscillated upward on Wednesday. The market may be looking for a clear main line of prosperity, and a structural market may continue. Fed rate cuts in September may create favorable conditions for domestic monetary easing, and the positive spiral of index profit - making effect and incremental funds is still in operation [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: After recent continuous recoveries, key - term yields are approaching important resistance levels. With the end of the tax - payment period, the return of loose liquidity, and the approaching end of institutional balance - sheet adjustment at the end of the quarter, the bond - market inflection point may be approaching, but there may still be fluctuations near the important resistance level [5] Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices are rising across the board, and the procurement rhythm of some enterprises has accelerated [8] - **Rebar**: On Wednesday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The anti - involution expectation has resurfaced, and the black sentiment is strong. Fundamentally, the apparent demand, production, and inventory have changed. The futures price is near the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, with a low static valuation. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the support level of 3000 - 3100 for the RB2601 contract [8] - **Glass**: Supply - side production capacity has remained stable, and inventories have decreased. Demand has improved, and the market sentiment has warmed up. In the traditional peak season, there are positive expectations, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 1210 - 1220 for the 01 contract and buy on dips [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price has risen in the range this week. The Fed's rate - cut expectation is strong, which is beneficial to the copper price. Domestically, demand has increased in the peak season, and the supply is expected to tighten. Although there are concerns about high prices in the market, the copper price is expected to remain strong, and the Shanghai copper main contract may test the 82500 mark [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite production and transportation. Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities have changed. Demand has entered the peak - season rhythm, but inventories have continued to accumulate. It is recommended to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and shorting AL [11] - **Nickel**: The uncertainty of nickel ore has increased, but the bottom support is still strong. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron is strong. Stainless - steel demand is expected to increase in the peak season, and the price of nickel sulfate is rising. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [14] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the off - season is weak. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to conduct range trading, focusing on the 260,000 - 278,000 yuan/ton range for the Shanghai tin 10 - contract [14][15] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: The market's expectation of multiple rate cuts within the year has increased, and the prices of precious metals have continued to rebound. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the Shanghai silver 10 - contract in the 9700 - 10500 range and the Shanghai gold 10 - contract in the 815 - 855 range [15][16] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, supply is high, and demand is affected by the real - estate market and exports. The inventory is high, and the overall supply - demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [18][19] - **Caustic Soda**: The macro - economic outlook is positive, supply inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and demand is expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2550 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: The cost - profit situation is affected by factors such as crude - oil supply - demand and pure - benzene production. The port inventory is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, focusing on the 7000 - 7300 range [23] - **Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price is high, and the inventory has continued to decline. The macro - guidance has intensified, and the spot - market trading sentiment has weakened. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range consolidation, focusing on the 15600 support level [24][25] - **Urea**: The market's production and sales have weakened, and the price has continued to decline. The supply - side start - up rate has decreased, and the demand is scattered. The inventory has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 for the 01 contract and the positive - arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [26][27][29] - **Methanol**: The supply has remained stable, and the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry has decreased. The inventory has changed. It is expected to have a weak oscillation, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [29] - **Polyolefins**: With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak - consumption season, the downstream start - up rate has continued to improve, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to oscillate, with the LL main contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has improved, and manufacturers' shipments have been smooth. However, the production has increased, and there is a surplus in theory. It is recommended to conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, and the macro - environment has become better. However, the expected increase in new - cotton production may put pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [35] - **PTA**: After the end of the US traditional fuel - consumption peak season, the demand has weakened, and the international oil price has fallen. The cost and supply - demand are in a reverse - driving situation, and the PTA has accumulated inventory. Due to planned maintenance, the supply - demand pressure is expected to decrease [36] - **Apples**: The early - maturing Fuji in the west is coming to an end, and the quality of the remaining goods has differentiated. The red - general situation in Shandong has some problems, and the inventory - Fuji trading has slowed down. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [36] - **Red Dates**: Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar - increasing stage. The current consumption is weak, and the price is under pressure after reaching a high level. It is expected to be oscillating weakly [38] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: On September 18, the pig price continued to decline. The supply in September has continued to increase, and the demand growth is slow. The state may start purchasing and reserve - rotation policies, and there is still pressure - holding and reluctance to sell. In the long - term, the supply before May next year is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 and 01 contracts and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of going long on the 05 and 07 contracts and shorting the 03 contract [40] - **Eggs**: As the egg price rebounds to a relatively high level, the cold - storage eggs are being released, and the stocking demand is coming to an end. In the long - term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month 10 and 11 contracts or hold the 11 put options, and be cautious about shorting the 12 and 01 contracts in the short - term [41] - **Corn**: It is currently the transitional period between old and new crops. The trade inventory is not high, and the market is waiting for new - crop listings. The new - crop opening price is higher year - on - year, and the price is seasonally under pressure. In the long - term, the corn planting is stable, and the cost support has shifted down. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse - arbitrage [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean price is expected to fluctuate around 1030 cents per bushel. Domestically, the arrival of soybeans from September to October is abundant, and the price is under pressure due to state - reserve sales, but there is cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2980 support level of the M2601 contract [44] - **Oils**: The prices of oils have corrected from high levels. The production of Malaysian palm oil in September has decreased, and the export data is conflicting. The US soybean production and supply - demand situation is complex, and the domestic rapeseed oil supply is facing uncertainties. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the positive - arbitrage of the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 contract spread [46][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar; recommended to buy on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Hold a wait-and-see attitude or buy on dips for copper; recommended to buy on dips after pullbacks for aluminum; recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude or sell on rallies for nickel; adopt range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][14][15][17][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; recommended to conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting the January contract and going long on the May contract for soda ash; rubber is expected to trade with a bullish bias; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range [1][19][20][22][23][25][26][28][30][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton, cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][33][34][35][35] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Recommended to sell on rallies for live pigs and eggs; corn is expected to trade in a range; soybean meal is expected to trade in a range; oils and fats are expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][37][38][39][42][44][50] Core Views - The market is currently in a state of structural adjustment, with different sectors showing varying trends. Some sectors are supported by positive factors such as improved macro liquidity and strong demand expectations, while others face challenges such as oversupply and weak demand [5][7][8][10][11][12][14][15][16][17][18][20][22][23][25][26][28][30][32][33][34][35][37][38][39][42][44][50] - The Fed's interest rate decision and macro policies will have a significant impact on the market. The market has strong expectations for a Fed rate cut in September, which will create favorable conditions for domestic monetary easing and support the prices of some assets [5][10][11][12][14][15][16][17][18][20][22][23][25][26][28][30][32][33][34][35][37][38][39][42][44][50] - Investors should pay attention to the supply and demand fundamentals, cost factors, and policy changes of different sectors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly [5][7][8][10][11][12][14][15][16][17][18][20][22][23][25][26][28][30][32][33][34][35][37][38][39][42][44][50] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The market may continue to experience a structural adjustment in the near term, with a search for a clear leading sector. The bull market logic driven by liquidity remains intact, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude. Although the central bank's bond purchase operations may have an impact on the market, the market reaction is expected to be more of a phased and impulse-like nature [5][6] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking Coal**: The price increase of pithead coal has slowed down, and the market is in a state of shock. It is recommended to wait for a clear driving factor [7] - **Rebar**: The price of rebar futures has continued to strengthen, but the supply and demand fundamentals are still weak. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a focus on the support level of 3000 - 3100 for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The supply of glass has remained stable, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to buy on dips for the January contract, with a focus on the arbitrage opportunity between soda ash and glass [8] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper has shown a strong upward trend in the near term, supported by factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the improvement in domestic demand. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude or buy on dips, with a focus on the 82500 resistance level for the Shanghai copper main contract [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The supply of aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand has entered the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a focus on the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and shorting AL [12] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is expected to increase, but the price is supported by the bottom. It is recommended to sell on rallies moderately in the short term, with a focus on the impact of the macro environment on the price [15][16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is tight, and the demand is expected to recover. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 26 - 27.8 million yuan/ton range for the Shanghai tin 10 contract [17] - **Silver and Gold**: The prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the weakening of the US dollar. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 9700 - 10500 range for the Shanghai silver 10 contract and the 815 - 855 range for the Shanghai gold 10 contract [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 4850 - 5050 range for the January contract [19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply of caustic soda has increased slightly, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 2550 - 2650 range for the January contract [21][22] - **Styrene**: The supply of styrene is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 7000 - 7300 range [23][24] - **Rubber**: The supply of rubber is stable, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 15600 support level [24][25] - **Urea**: The supply of urea is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 1630 - 1650 support level for the January contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [26][27][28] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol has remained stable, and the demand has decreased. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 2330 - 2450 range for the January contract [28] - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyolefins has decreased slightly, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 7200 - 7500 range for the L2601 contract and the 6900 - 7200 range for the PP2601 contract [30] - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting the January contract and going long on the May contract [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand of cotton have improved, but the new cotton production is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the price of oil has weakened. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with a focus on the 4600 - 4950 range [34][35] - **Apples**: The price of apples has shown a strong upward trend, supported by the high price of early-maturing apples and the positive procurement sentiment of merchants. It is recommended to pay attention to the development of the market [35] - **Jujubes**: The consumption of jujubes is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to conduct range trading with a bearish bias [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: The supply of live pigs is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell on rallies, with a focus on the 13700 - 14000 resistance level for the November contract and the 14000 - 14300 resistance level for the January contract. Also, pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of going long on the May contract and shorting the March contract [37][38] - **Eggs**: The supply of eggs is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies for the near-term contracts (October and November) or hold put options for the November contract. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting the December and January contracts, with a focus on the range trading [38] - **Corn**: The supply of corn is sufficient, and the price is under pressure during the listing period. It is recommended to sell on rallies for the November contract, with a focus on the 2220 - 2250 resistance level. Also, pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [39][40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is expected to be loose in the near term, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the 3030 support level for the M2601 contract, with a focus on the impact of the US - China trade relationship and the procurement of ships after October on the price [42][43][44] - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats are expected to be strong in the near term, supported by factors such as the reduction in palm oil production in Malaysia and the improvement in demand. It is recommended to buy on dips or purchase call options, with a focus on the 8550, 9700, and 10300 resistance levels for the January contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil respectively. Also, pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity for the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 contract spread [44][45][46][47][48][50]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips for stock indices; hold a wait-and-see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - Black building materials: Range trading for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Wait-and-see or hold long positions on dips for copper, with short-term trading; recommend buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend waiting or shorting on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][16][17] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; rubber is expected to trade with a bullish bias; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][23][31][33] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][37][39] - Agricultural and livestock products: Recommend shorting on rallies for hogs and eggs; corn is expected to trade in a range; soybean meal is expected to trade in a range; oils are expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][41][43][47] Core Views - The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals [5] - The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally [5] - The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season [9] - The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand [10] - The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [12] - The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand [16] - The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [16] - The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17][18] - The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [20] - The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply [23] - The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory [25] - The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [27] - The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [28] - The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [31] - The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [33] - The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [36] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [37] - The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [38] - The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [39] - The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [40] - The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [41] - The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [42] - The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [43] - The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [46] - The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [47] Summary by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices: The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [5] - Treasury bonds: The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [5] Black building materials - Coking coal: The coking coal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [7] - Rebar: The rebar market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [7] - Glass: The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [9] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [10] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [12] - Nickel: The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [16] - Tin: The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [16] - Silver and gold: The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [17][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [20] - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [23] - Styrene: The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [25] - Rubber: The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [27] - Urea: The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [28] - Methanol: The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [31] - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [33] - Soda ash: The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [36] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [37] - PTA: The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [38] - Apples: The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [39] - Jujubes: The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [40] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [41] - Eggs: The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [42] - Corn: The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [43] - Soybean meal: The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [46] - Oils: The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly revised down the total non - farm employment in March, and the U.S. August PPI data was lower than expected, leading to an increase in the market's expectation of multiple interest rate cuts within the year, and the precious metal prices continued to rebound. - Trump's influence on the Fed's independence is evident. The results of trade negotiations between the U.S. and multiple countries have been finalized, and the tariff increase is generally lower than market expectations, leading to an increase in the market's optimistic expectation of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Europe. - The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week exceeded expectations. Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is unlikely to be sustained. - The U.S. economic data is trending weaker, and the market is worried about the U.S. fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects. It is expected that the precious metal prices will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the U.S. September interest rate decision announced on Thursday [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the U.S. August PPI data being significantly lower than expected and the market's increased expectation of the number of Fed interest rate cuts within the year, the price of U.S. gold continued to rise. As of last Friday, U.S. gold closed at $3,681 per ounce, up 1.1% within the week. The upper resistance level is $3,740, and the lower support level is $3,600 [6]. - Due to the same reasons, the price of U.S. silver continued to rise. As of last Friday, it had a weekly increase of 2.8%, closing at $42.7 per ounce. The lower support level is $40.5, and the upper resistance level is $44 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The factors mentioned above lead to the continuation of the precious metal price rebound. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The U.S. economic data is weakening, and there are concerns about the fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, so the precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the U.S. September interest rate decision announced on Thursday [11]. - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 1,347 kilograms to 1,210,376.87 kilograms this week, while SHFE inventory increased by 9,615 kilograms to 52,950 kilograms. - Silver: COMEX inventory increased by 281,642.11 kilograms to 16,404,708.42 kilograms this week, while SHFE inventory decreased by 18,840 kilograms to 1,246,569 kilograms. - This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 255,351 contracts, an increase of 10,919 contracts compared with last week; the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 50,889 contracts, a decrease of 1,848 contracts compared with last week. - Strategy suggestion: Trade cautiously and within the range. Refer to the operating range of 815 - 855 for the Shanghai Gold 10 - contract and 9,700 - 10,500 for the Shanghai Silver 10 - contract [13]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators Although there are a lot of data charts provided, no specific analysis or summary information is given in the text. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Current Week - The U.S. August CPI annual rate unadjusted was 2.9%, the same as the expected value and higher than the previous value of 2.7%. - The U.S. August PPI annual rate was 2.6%, lower than the expected value of 3.3% and the same as the previous value [28]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Current Week - From April 2024 to March 2025, the total non - farm employment in the U.S. was revised down by 911,000, with an average monthly decrease of 76,000. The expected revision was 682,000, and this is the largest revision since 2009. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 6 rose to 263,000, reaching the highest point in nearly four years, further reflecting the cooling of the labor market. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the consumer price index (CPI) in August increased by 0.4% month - on - month, higher than the expected 0.3%, recording the largest increase in seven months; the year - on - year growth rate was 2.9%, also higher than 2.7% in July. The core CPI excluding food and energy increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year, in line with market expectations [29]. 3.6 Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 1,347 kilograms to 1,210,376.87 kilograms, and SHFE inventory increased by 9,615 kilograms to 52,950 kilograms. - Silver: COMEX inventory increased by 281,642.11 kilograms to 16,404,708.42 kilograms, and SHFE inventory decreased by 18,840 kilograms to 1,246,569 kilograms [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of September 9, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 255,351 contracts, an increase of 10,919 contracts compared with last week. - As of September 9, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 50,889 contracts, a decrease of 1,848 contracts compared with last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Focus on This Week - On Tuesday (September 16), 20:30, the U.S. August retail sales month - on - month rate. - On Thursday (September 18), 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 13 [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market may continue to fluctuate and differentiate, with investors' sentiment being cautious. The precious metals sector is supported by international gold prices, and its subsequent performance is worth attention. The real - estate industry chain is expected to remain active due to policy incentives. The semiconductor and photovoltaic equipment sectors need to track capacity adjustment and performance improvement. The technology sector fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to closely monitor news and individual stock fundamentals. Overall, there are both opportunities and risks in the market, and investors should make rational decisions and pay attention to position management [7]. - Fundamentally, China's economic slow - recovery trend remains unchanged, with PPI and CPI remaining low and residents' financing demand being weak. The data does not currently support a rapid rise in interest rates. The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy, which supports the bond market. In the fourth quarter, affected by the high base, economic data may weaken periodically. If policies are intensified to strengthen the expectation of monetary easing, the bond market is expected to decline. The current low - inflation environment and policy tone together constitute favorable conditions for the bond market, and subsequent attention should be paid to the marginal changes in economic data and the policy response rhythm [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - **Stock Index Trend Review**: Last week, the A - share market rose overall, with major indices rebounding. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market all showed gains. The STAR Market was particularly outstanding, reflecting the strong momentum of the growth - style sector. The daily average trading volume of A - shares last week was about trillions of yuan, slightly lower than the previous week. The growth - style sector led the market rebound, and the change in trading volume reflected the dynamics of market trading activity [7]. - **Core Viewpoints**: The short - term market may continue to fluctuate and differentiate, and investors' sentiment is cautious. The precious metals sector is supported by international gold prices, and the real - estate industry chain is expected to be active. The semiconductor and photovoltaic equipment sectors need to track capacity adjustment and performance improvement. The technology sector fluctuates greatly, and investors should make rational decisions and pay attention to position management [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the long - term trend line last Thursday, forming a "Jiao Long Chu Hai" pattern, indicating a significant increase in short - term bullish momentum and a shift from a cautious to a positive market pattern [7]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - **Treasury Bond Trend Review**: Last week, there was a net capital withdrawal of 100 million yuan. The bond market fluctuated sharply due to the new regulations on public fund redemption fees and tax - exemption policy rumors. The yields of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds exceeded previous highs, and then recovered after the central bank's news of restarting treasury bond trading. On the evening of a certain day, after the release of credit data, the yield of a certain - year treasury bond decreased slightly, while the yields of other - year and ultra - long - term treasury bonds increased [8]. - **Core Viewpoints**: China's economic slow - recovery trend remains unchanged, and the central bank's moderately loose monetary policy supports the bond market. In the fourth quarter, economic data may weaken periodically, and if policies are intensified, the bond market may decline. Attention should be paid to economic data and policy responses [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The K - line of the T contract oscillated upward, closing with a positive line. The MACD yellow and white lines were intertwined, and the increment of the green shadow decreased marginally. The three tracks of the BOLL line still maintained a downward - opening pattern [8]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Wait patiently for a clear trend before operating [8]. 3.3 Key Data Tracking - **PMI**: In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal changes. Both supply and demand weakened. The upstream non - ferrous and steel industries improved, while the downstream export chain was suppressed [12]. - **Inflation**: In a certain month, the year - on - year CPI was flat, and the month - on - month CPI rose by 0.4%. The year - on - year PPI decreased by 3.6%, and the month - on - month PPI decreased by 0.2%. There were positive changes in prices, but the year - on - year CPI and PPI were still low [15]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In a certain month, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value fell to 5.7%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index fell to 5.8%. The decline in the industrial added value growth rate was mainly due to the export chain, with significant declines in the year - on - year growth rates of export - oriented industries such as automobiles, electronics, textiles, and electrical machinery [18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In a certain month, the estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative to - 5.2%. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing, narrow - sense infrastructure, and real - estate investment declined. The reasons for the negative growth of fixed - asset investment were complex, including short - term factors such as extreme weather and statistical method misalignment, medium - term factors such as export expectation decline and policy implementation, and long - term factors such as the shrinking real - estate investment [21]. - **Social Retail Sales**: In a certain month, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales fell to 3.7%, and the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales above the designated size fell to 2.8%. The weakening of social retail sales was mainly reflected in the low - level fluctuation of catering consumption, the weakening of sales of state - subsidized products, and the decline of real - estate - related consumption [24]. - **Social Financing**: In a certain month, the new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were negative. At the end of the month, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale was 9.0%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.8%. The credit data was negative, but the growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 improved with fiscal support. In the future, the base effect and government bonds will still support social financing, but the government bonds in Q4 will face a year - on - year decrease, and the growth rate of social financing may peak and decline. There is still a window for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, and attention should be paid to the implementation of new policy - based financial tools and the possibility of new government bond quotas [27]. - **Imports and Exports**: In a certain month, China's exports were 321.78 billion US dollars, imports were 223.54 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars. The import and export performance in this month was significantly better than market expectations, mainly due to the "rush" characteristic under the threat of the US government to impose tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Semiconductor - related enterprises accelerated inventory replenishment, and domestic enterprises accelerated the import of pharmaceutical materials and products [30]. - **Key Points to Watch This Week**: This week, attention should be paid to the initial jobless claims in the US on a certain day, the federal funds target rate, the refinery utilization rate and capacity utilization rate on a certain day, the crude oil inventory and strategic reserve inventory on a certain day, and the new housing starts (private housing) in a certain month in the US [32].