黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3200 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 131（+3）。宏观方面，中美会谈成 果超预期，双方大幅互降关税，国内货币政策利多已经落地，不过市场 仍在期待财政政策发力；产业方面，上周螺纹钢表需大幅回升，库存再 度去化，但是需求即将面临季节性走弱压力，当下钢厂利润尚好，主动 减产意愿不足，后期供需矛盾会逐步显现。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺 纹钢期货价格低于电炉谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面， 政策端，中美贸易环境改善，近期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较 小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但需求即将环比转弱，短期在低估值背景 下，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周一，铁矿石盘面窄幅震荡。受抢出口和高铁水意思影响，价格在相对 高位继续调整。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 762 元/湿吨（-3）。普氏 62% 指数 100.35 美元/吨（-0.75），月均 99.86 美元/吨。PBF 基差 83 元/ 吨（+2）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,706. ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 20 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.5-15.1 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日稳 定；广东 14.7-15.2 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。5 月规模企业出栏计划增加， 且生猪体重高位，供应压力累积中，前期二育强势进场，随着部分养殖户加 快出栏节奏，短期供应压力释放。需求端，虽然端午节备货临近，但天气转 热，猪肉消费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求难有明显增量，不 过低位二次育肥滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关 注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况、体重变化。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，5-9 月供应呈增 加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出 栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价仍有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格 波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall supply pressure of the feed and breeding industry is gradually emerging, with high supply in the short - to - medium term and weak demand, which will put pressure on prices of related products. For pigs, there is a risk of price decline; for eggs, the price is under pressure due to slow capacity clearance; for corn, the price has short - term support and long - term upward drive, but the upside space is limited [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig - **Periodic and Spot Market**: As of May 16, the national spot price was 14.76 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg from last week; Henan pig price was 14.91 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from last week; the quotation of live hog 2509 was 13,660 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 09 contract was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton from last week. Pig prices fluctuated weakly, and the market was in a stalemate [4][11]. - **Supply Side**: From May to November 2024, the inventory of reproductive sows increased steadily. In the context of stable epidemics, the supply from April to September 2025 showed an increasing trend. Although the production capacity was reduced, the reduction was limited. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter still exists. The number of piglets from November 2024 to February 2025 increased year - on - year, and the slaughter pressure in the second quarter was still high. In May, the planned slaughter volume of enterprises increased [4][61]. - **Demand Side**: The weekly slaughter start - up rate increased slightly, but the slaughter volume decreased. It is currently the off - season for consumption. High temperatures have led to a decrease in terminal consumption, and the slaughter volume is difficult to improve under the background of losses for slaughtering enterprises [4][61]. - **Cost Side**: The price of piglets decreased slightly, and the price of binary reproductive sows was stable. The breeding profits of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets increased slightly [4][61]. - **Weekly Summary**: In May, the planned slaughter volume of enterprises increased, and the supply pressure was accumulating. The demand was weak, but there was still some secondary fattening. The overall supply - demand game intensified, and pig prices fluctuated frequently. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline due to strong supply and weak demand [4][61]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at the rebound pressure level. The pressure level for 07 is 13,800 - 14,000, and the support level is 13,200 - 13,300; for 09, the pressure level is 14,300 - 14,500, and the support level is 13,600 - 13,800. Sell out - of - the - money call options for 09 [4][61]. 3.2 Egg - **Periodic and Spot Market**: As of May 16, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.26 yuan/jin, up 0.23 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.13 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin from last Friday. The main egg contract 2506 closed at 2,894 yuan/500 kg, down 1 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 54 yuan/500 kg, 61 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday. Egg prices are expected to fall first and then rise next week [5][90]. - **Supply Side**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in May was large, and the slaughter of culled chickens increased but not significantly, so the supply pressure was still high. From February to April 2025, the high number of replenished chicks means more newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025. The capacity clearance may take time [5][90]. - **Demand Side**: As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, low egg prices may stimulate procurement demand. However, high temperatures and humidity in the south are not conducive to egg storage, and the demand is relatively limited [5][90]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short - term, the approaching Dragon Boat Festival may support egg prices, but the high supply is not alleviated, so egg prices are under pressure. In the long - term, the high supply trend is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to near - term culling and raw material cost fluctuations [5][90]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the 06 contract, adopt a wait - and - see strategy; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view and wait for a rebound to short. Pay attention to the pressure level of 3,750 - 3,800 for 08, and the impact of feed and culling [5][90]. 3.3 Corn - **Periodic and Spot Market**: As of May 16, the corn平仓 price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The main corn contract 2507 closed at 2,335 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 15 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton stronger than last Friday. Corn prices are expected to rise slightly in the short term [6]. - **Supply Side**: As corn prices rose to a high level, traders' willingness to sell increased, increasing the supply. However, the primary grain sales are basically over, and the grain has been transferred to traders. The market is bullish, and traders are firm in their asking prices. At the same time, the inventories at north - south ports are gradually decreasing, which supports the price [6]. - **Demand Side**: The increase in the inventory of livestock and poultry has driven the recovery of feed demand. However, the increase in the price of corn has led to an increase in the procurement of wheat, squeezing the feed demand for corn. The deep - processing industry is in a loss, with a decline in the start - up rate and limited incremental demand [6]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short - term, the reduction of primary grain sources and the bullish market sentiment support the price. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship is tightening, driving the price up, but the upside space is limited due to the supply of substitutes [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take a generally bullish view. The 07 contract will fluctuate at a high level (2,320 - 2,400), and buy at the lower end of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [6].

01 螺纹：短线交易 03 04 铁矿：多9空1 双焦：中性观望 目 录 05 02 热卷：短线操作 01 螺纹钢：短线交易 01 投资策略：涨跌空间不大 区间交易为主 主要观点 黑色：涨跌空间不大 区间交易为主 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/5/19 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 张佩云 执业编号：F03090752 投资咨询号：Z0019837 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 白天霖 执业编号：F03138690 上周螺纹钢价格先涨后跌，现货与期货涨幅相当，基差持稳。宏观方面，中美会谈成果超预期，双方大幅互降关税， 国内货币政策利多已经落地，不过市场仍在期待财政政策发力；产业方面，上周螺纹钢表需大幅回升，库存再度去化， 但是需求即将面临季节性走弱压力，当下钢厂利润尚好，主动减产意愿不足，后期供需矛盾会逐步显现。 后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格低于电炉谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美 贸易环境改善，近期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但需求即将环比转弱，短期在低 估值背景下，预 ...

长江期货尿素&甲醇周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-05-19 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 01 尿素：上方压力显现 关注支撑位表现 02 甲醇：下游需求承接有限 高位回落 目 录 01 核心观点总结 尿素：上方压力显现 关注支撑位表现 01 1 市场变化：尿素价格延续震荡运行，盘面价格重心小幅下移，5月16日尿素2509合约收盘价1892元/吨，较上周收 盘基本持平。尿素现货价格坚挺，河南市场日均价1907元/吨，较上周上调23元/吨，山东市场日均价1946元/吨， 较上周上调76元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端尿素开工负荷率87.5%，较上周基本持平，其中气头企业开工负荷率75.74%，较上周上调 5.45个百分点，尿素日均产量19.92万吨。新疆新冀能源150万吨/年装置试车成功，日产1560吨小颗粒尿素和 1098吨大颗粒 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The current supply of cotton in China is tight in the short - to - medium - term, with the 09 contract showing a high probability of short - to - medium - term upward movement. However, the 01 contract may be restricted in its upward potential due to expected new cotton production increases. The cotton price is expected to rise in May and June, but caution is needed in July and August. The long - term price trend is affected by macro factors such as Sino - US negotiations and Fed policies [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View - The current supply of cotton in China is tight. By the end of August, commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, lower than the same period last year and in 2023. The 09 contract is strong, with a high probability of short - to - medium - term upward movement. The 01 contract may be restricted by expected new cotton production increases in Xinjiang [3]. - The short - to - medium - term upward limit is 14,000 - 14,100. The cotton price is expected to rise in May and June due to Sino - US trade war easing and potential export rush, but caution is needed in July and August as Sino - US negotiations may be unstable [3]. - The long - term price trend is affected by macro factors. If the negotiation results are good and the Fed cuts interest rates, the cotton price may continue to rise after a decline, challenging 15,000 - 15,100. If the negotiations fail, the price may fall [3]. 2. Market Review - This week, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose significantly due to the relatively smooth Sino - US talks in Geneva and the release of a joint statement on May 12. The pure cotton yarn market is in the traditional off - season, and the industrial transmission is not obvious [5]. - The cotton main contract price was 13,390, up 1,440 or 13.3%; the cotton yarn main contract price was 19,750, up 135 or 0.2%; the US cotton main contract price was 65.43, down 1.7 or 2.6% [6]. 3. Macroeconomic Aspect - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks in Geneva from May 10 - 11 were positive, with the two sides agreeing to establish a consultation mechanism and releasing a joint statement on May 12 [10]. - The US economic activity is slowing down, with April PPI falling 0.5% month - on - month, retail sales growing only 0.1% month - on - month, and manufacturing output falling 0.4% month - on - month. The May housing builder confidence index also dropped to the lowest level since late 2023 [10]. - The US initial jobless claims remained stable at 229,000, while the continued claims increased by 9,000 to 1.881 million [10]. - The Eurozone's Q1 economic growth was revised down, but the labor market remained strong with a 0.3% employment growth [10]. 4. Industrial Chain - In April 2025, China's cotton textile industry PMI was 34.11%, down 26.10 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line. New orders, production, and operating rates all dropped, cotton inventory decreased slightly, and cotton yarn inventory increased significantly [12]. - India's clothing exports in April 2025 were 1.371 billion US dollars, a 14.43% year - on - year increase and a 10.45% month - on - month decrease. From January to April, the total clothing exports were 6.043 billion US dollars, an 8.14% year - on - year increase [12]. - Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 3.905 million tons, a 5.5% year - on - year increase, due to an expected increase in planting area [12]. - India's 2024/25 cotton production is expected to be 5.002 million tons, a 9.5% year - on - year decrease, with consumption expected to be 5.712 million tons, a 5.2% year - on - year decrease [12]. 5. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand forecast, production is expected to decrease year - on - year but remain at the second - highest level in the past five years, consumption is expected to increase year - on - year to the highest level in the past five years, and the ending inventory will decrease slightly [13]. - In the 2024/25 forecast, global cotton production is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, consumption is expected to increase slightly, and the ending inventory will decrease slightly [13]. 6. Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2024/25 season, total supply decreased by 500,000 tons to 14.91 million tons due to a reduction in imports. Total demand increased by 60,000 tons to 8.21 million tons, mainly due to an increase in cotton consumption for spinning [16][17]. - In the 2025/26 season, total supply decreased by 500,000 tons to 15.09 million tons, with a decrease in beginning inventory and an increase in production. Total demand increased by 60,000 tons to 8.14 million tons [16][17]. 7. US Cotton Exports - From May 2 - 8, the net signing of US 2024/25 upland cotton was 27,715 tons, an 86% increase from the previous week and a 2% increase from the four - week average. The shipment was 74,661 tons, a 17% decrease from the previous week and a 5% decrease from the four - week average [20]. - China's net signing of current - year upland cotton was 0 tons, with a significant increase in shipment. There was no signing of Pima cotton and no signing of next - year's upland cotton [20]. 8. Industrial and Commercial Inventories - By the end of April, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.1526 million tons, a 14.20% decrease from the previous month and a 4.29% decrease from the same period last year [23]. - By the end of April, the cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 954,200 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons from the end of the previous month. The disposable cotton inventory was 1.2884 million tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons from the end of the previous month [23]. - The total industrial and commercial inventory was 5.1068 million tons, a decrease of 135,400 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 692,100 tons month - on - month [23]. 9. Cotton Climate - In the Southwest Cotton Region, the weather is sunny, and the sowing operation is in progress. The soil moisture in the sub - surface layer is insufficient, and rainfall is needed [24]. - In the South - Central Cotton Region, the weather is warm, but there is a 40% - 50% probability of scattered thunderstorms in the future, which may delay outdoor operations [28]. 10. Xinjiang Region - On the 16th, there was light rain in parts of the southwestern mountainous areas of southern Xinjiang, and windy and high - temperature weather in parts of northern Xinjiang, eastern Xinjiang, etc. High - temperature weather is expected in parts of Junggar Basin, Tarim Basin, and eastern Xinjiang in the next three days, with a high fire risk level [32]. 11. Warehouse Receipts and Positions - As of May 16, the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,548, with an effective forecast of 365, and the total warehouse receipts were 11,913, a decrease of 222 from the previous week [35]. - As of May 6, the non - commercial net long positions in ICE cotton futures and options increased by 1,452 to - 14,546; the pure futures non - commercial net long positions increased by 1,662 to - 10,076; the commodity index fund net long positions increased by 2,692 to 60,020 [35]. 12. Basis - The current cotton basis is 1,187 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan from the previous week; the current cotton yarn basis is 900 yuan, a decrease of 180 yuan from the previous week [39]. 13. Price Differences - The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has widened, currently at 1,222 yuan, an increase of 600 yuan from the previous week; the difference between domestic and foreign cotton yarn prices has widened, currently at - 1,368 yuan, an increase of 262 yuan from the previous week [43]. 14. Industrial Chain Load - The production enthusiasm of textile enterprises is fair, and the operating rate is relatively stable [45]. 15. Industrial Chain Inventory - The inventory of textile enterprises has decreased, and the overall yarn inventory has been transferred to traders [53]. 16. Industrial Chain Profits - Due to the significant increase in cotton prices compared to cotton yarn prices, inland textile enterprises currently have a small loss in immediate cash flow [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The macro - expectation has improved, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly. The prices of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber are expected to show different trends in the short term, with PX and PTA likely to continue to fluctuate strongly, ethylene glycol to fluctuate in the range of 4400 - 4550, and short - fiber having a rebound expectation but limited upside [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **PX**: Last week, the PX price continued to rebound. The cost - end crude oil price strengthened, and the PX supply side continued to cut production, with weekly output decreasing and social inventory slowly declining. The PXN slightly recovered. As of May 14, the Asian PX market average price increased by 9.11% - 9.38% compared to the previous week [2][7]. - **PTA**: The PTA price continued to rise last week. The international oil price at the cost end supported the rebound of chemical products. The PTA start - up rate increased, and the downstream polyester load slightly decreased. The PTA inventory continued to decline, and the price continued to rise. From May 8th to May 15th, the PTA spot price increased by 8.09% [2][3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rebounded significantly last week. Initially, it was supported by the rising international oil price, and then the market rebounded from the low level due to the improvement of the macro - situation. However, the rebound amplitude was limited due to the increase in port data [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price followed the raw material price fluctuations last week. Initially, the market purchasing was active, and the basis increased. Then, due to the improvement of the macro - situation and short - fiber supply - demand, the price slightly recovered, but the price rebound was less than that of PTA due to concerns about tariff impacts on terminal consumption [2]. 2. Supply Situation - **PX**: The domestic PX production last week was 64.63 tons, a decrease of 5.94% compared to the previous week. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 77.07%, a decrease of 4.87% compared to the previous week. The PX - N and PX - M spreads increased [8][10]. - **PTA**: The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate last week was 74.63%, a decrease of 0.35% compared to the previous week and an increase of 4.68% compared to the same period last year. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The total capacity utilization rate of Chinese ethylene glycol was 61.04%, a decrease of 2.42% compared to the previous week. The weekly output of Chinese ethylene glycol devices was 36.83 tons, a decrease of 1.32% compared to the previous week [15]. 3. Downstream Demand - **Polyester**: The weekly output of the Chinese polyester industry last week was 158.33 tons, an increase of 0.96% compared to the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 90.93%, a decrease of 0.56% compared to the previous week. The difference in the trends of output and capacity utilization rate was due to the commissioning of new polyester devices [20]. - **Terminal Weaving**: The comprehensive start - up rate of domestic main weaving production bases last week was 57.65%, an increase of 2.09% compared to the previous week. The start - up rates of different types of looms varied. The trade negotiation between China and the US had a positive impact, and the weaving factories actively purchased raw materials [22]. 4. Market Outlook - **PX**: The cost - end crude oil price is rising, and domestic and foreign devices continue to be under maintenance. The expected weekly output is 64.73 tons. The PX price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [23]. - **PTA**: The cost - end crude oil support is weak, but production is expected to increase. The downstream polyester load reduction is limited, and the terminal weaving start - up rate is rising. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [23]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The international oil price has rebounded from the low level, and the cost support has improved. The ethylene glycol port inventory remains low. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4400 - 4550 [23]. - **Short - fiber**: The raw - material PTA price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly, providing cost support. The short - fiber still has a rebound expectation, but the upside is limited [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the May Day holiday this week, the shipping enthusiasm of merchants decreased, and the overall sales speed slowed down slightly compared with before the holiday. The apple market price tended to be stable, and the high - cost - effective supply remained strong. Market customers restocked as needed after the holiday, and the producing areas mainly shipped the previously packed goods. The inventory holders' willingness to sell increased. With the rising temperature, seasonal melons were on the market one after another, and the small - batch purchases decreased slightly. The new - season apples have gradually entered the fruit - setting period. The fruit - setting situation in the western region is differentiated, with poor fruit - setting in some producing areas, while the overall fruit - setting in Shandong is okay. In the future, apples are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend based on low inventory and growth impacts. [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly View - The overall sales speed of apples slowed down slightly after the May Day holiday, the price was stable, and high - cost - effective supply was strong. New - season apples entered the fruit - setting period with different situations in different regions. Apples are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. [3] 2. Market Review - This week, the main apple contract fluctuated at a high level. The apple basis was 263 yuan, an increase of 67 yuan compared with last week. [6] 3. Apple Wholesale Market Price Trend - As of May 9, 2025, the wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.44 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from last week; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 8.96 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg from last week. Recently, the spot price of Fuji apples has been strong. [12] 4. Main Apple Producing Areas - In Shandong Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade striped apples was 4.00 - 4.50 yuan/jin, etc. In Shaanxi Luochuan, the price of orchard - owner general - grade apples starting from 70 was 4.3 - 4.5 yuan/jin, etc. [17] 5. Cold Storage Situation Analysis - As of May 14, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 1.951 billion kg, a decrease of 337.6 million kg from last week. The inventory was still at a low level in the past five years. [19] 6. Sales Area Market Summary - In the South China market, the number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong Chalong market decreased. The daily average number of trucks arriving during the week was about 30. The sales were smooth during the May Day holiday and slowed down slightly after the holiday. The market price of Luochuan 80 late - season Fuji apples was 4.5 - 5.5 yuan/jin, etc. [24] 7. Apple Storage Profit Analysis - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants was 0.9 yuan/jin, the same as last week. [28] 8. Substitute Price Analysis - As of the 19th week of 2025, the average wholesale price of six fruits monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 7.82 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.25 yuan/kg compared with the 17th week. The average wholesale prices of bananas, Kyoho grapes, and Fuji apples increased by 0.01 yuan/kg, 0.89 yuan/kg, and 0.22 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 17th week. The average wholesale prices of watermelons and pineapples decreased by 0.28 yuan/kg and 0.06 yuan/kg respectively compared with the 17th week. [33]

Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to be volatile and weak [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The glass futures market was weak last week, with the 09 contract approaching 1000 points on Friday. The supply side saw a slight increase in daily melting volume due to the ignition and resumption of one production line. The national factory inventory remained high and increased slightly, mainly in the Northeast and Central China regions. The spot prices in North China generally decreased, and the profit from coal - gas production slightly declined. The demand side remained weak, and although the price cut of spot goods drove some downstream purchases, most deep - processing orders showed no signs of increase. With the approaching of the rainy season, manufacturers are more willing to reduce inventory, and the spot price is likely to decline further. The weak demand expectation during the off - season and the lack of major favorable policies in the real estate sector will suppress the market. Technically, the short - term trend of the 09 contract remains downward, and it is expected that the glass market will operate in a volatile and weak manner [2] Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is to be volatile and weak. The main reasons include the weak operation of glass futures last week, the increase in supply and inventory, the decline in spot prices and profits, the weak demand, the approaching of the rainy season leading to stronger inventory reduction willingness of manufacturers, and the lack of major favorable policies in the real estate sector. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 1000 points and wait for new short - selling opportunities on rebounds [2] 02 & 03 Market Review - **Spot Price**: As of May 16, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1200 yuan/ton (-20) in North China, 1140 yuan/ton (-30) in Central China, and 1340 yuan/ton (-30) in East China. The futures price of the glass 09 contract closed at 1005 yuan/ton last Friday, down 39 for the week [8][9] - **Price Difference and Basis**: As of May 16, the price difference between soda ash and glass was 284 yuan/ton (+13). The basis of the glass 09 contract last Friday was 125 yuan/ton (-41), and the 09 - 01 price difference was - 57 yuan/ton (-13) [12] 04 Profit - **Production Process Profits**: The cost of the natural - gas production process was 1609 yuan/ton (+2), with a gross profit of - 269 yuan/ton (-32); the cost of the coal - gas production process was 1159 yuan/ton (-4), with a gross profit of 41 yuan/ton (-16); the cost of the petroleum - coke production process was 1206 yuan/ton (+2), with a gross profit of - 66 yuan/ton (-32) [19][22] - **Fuel Prices**: On May 16, the price of industrial natural gas in Hebei was 4.02 yuan/m³, the price of Dongming Petrochemical 3B petroleum coke was 1600 yuan/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 490 yuan/ton [22] 05 Supply - The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 156,505 tons/day (unchanged). Currently, there are 222 production lines in operation. Last week, two production lines in Hebei underwent cold repairs, and one production line was restarted [24] 06 Inventory - As of May 16, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,808.2 million weight boxes (+52.2). Among them, the inventory in North China was 1,068 million weight boxes (+3.9), in Central China was 747.1 million weight boxes (+16.6), in East China was 1,556 million weight boxes (-4.6), in South China was 1,053.1 million weight boxes (+4.2), in Southwest China was 1,240.5 million weight boxes (-5.9), the inventory in Shahe factories was 334 million weight boxes (unchanged), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 497 million weight boxes (+38) [32] 07 Deep - processing - The production - sales rate of float glass last week was 99.03% (+12.59%). The operating rate of LOW - E glass on May 16 was 50.2% (+0.5%). The available order days for glass deep - processing in mid - May were 10.4 days (+0.1) [34] 08 & 09 Demand - **Automobile Market**: In April, China's automobile production was 2.619 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 387,000 and a year - on - year increase of 213,000), and sales were 2.59 million vehicles (a month - on - month decrease of 325,000 and a year - on - year increase of 231,000). The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in April was 905,000, with a penetration rate of 51.5% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%) [44] - **Real Estate Market**: In March, China's real estate completion area was 42.9606 million m² (a year - on - year decrease of 12%), new construction was 63.8252 million m² (-19%), construction in progress was 77.3309 million m² (-33%), and commercial housing sales were 111.234 million m² (-2%). From May 5th to May 11th, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.68 million square meters (a month - on - month increase of 12% and a year - on - year decrease of 15%). In March, real estate development investment was 918.443 billion yuan (a year - on - year decrease of 10%) [50] 10, 11, 12, 13 Cost - side - Soda Ash - **Price and Basis**: As of May 16, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1500 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1400 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1625 yuan/ton (+50) in South China. The 2509 contract of soda ash closed at 1289 yuan/ton last Friday (down 16). The basis of the 09 contract of soda ash in Central China last Friday was 11 yuan/ton (+16) [57][59][60] - **Profit**: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda - ash enterprises was 1442 yuan/ton (-32), with a gross profit of 65 yuan/ton (+15); the cost of the co - production process was 1656 yuan/ton (-38), with a gross profit of 288 yuan/ton (+13) [61] - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda - ash production was 677,700 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 63,000), including 369,900 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 38,000) and 307,800 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 25,000). The loss was 168,300 tons (a month - on - month increase of 64,600). The number of exchange soda - ash warehouse receipts last weekend was 2844 (a month - on - month decrease of 499). As of May 16, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.712 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 10,700), including 883,300 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 11,100) and 828,700 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 400) [77] - **Apparent Consumption and Production - sales Rate**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 358,800 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 80,600), and for light soda ash was 336,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 27,800). The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 98.42% (a month - on - month increase of 2.35%) [78]

铝周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 ◆库存： ◆策略建议： 沪铝：建议观望为主。 氧化铝：建议观望为主。 2025-05-19 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 周度观点 近日几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题有进一步升级，推动氧化铝价格大涨，但具体影响有待评估。氧化铝运行产能周度环 比增加10万吨至8685万吨，全国氧化铝库存324.6万吨，周度环比减少4.2万吨。氧化铝企业检修减产和主动压产仍在继续，市场 处于投产、复产、减产交织状态。山东地区某氧化铝企业150万吨氢氧化铝项目、广西地区某氧化铝企业二期200万吨、北方某大 型氧化铝企业二期两条共320万吨逐步贡献氧化铝产量。需要注意的是，氧化铝企业集中减产及检修，带来库存下降和阶段性提货 困难，贸易商及部分下游对现货需求量增加，近期氧化铝现货价格企稳反弹。电解铝运行产能4412.4万吨，周度环比增加0.5万吨。 四川省内铝企复产基本完成，广元弘昌晟预计本月满产；贵州安顺铝厂剩余6万吨产能仍在复产 ...