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原油:伊以冲突爆发,油价触及涨停
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 09:09
原油:伊以冲突爆发,油价触及涨停 正信期货原油周报 20250616 研究员:付馨苇 投资咨询编号:Z0022192 Email: fuxw@zxqh.net Tel:027-68851659 研究员:赵婷 投资咨询编号:Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel:027-68851659 目 录 CONTENTS 原油价格分析 1 2 原油供应端分析 3 原油需求端分析 4 原油库存端分析 5 原油供需平衡总结 PPT模板:www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材:www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景:www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表:www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载:www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程: www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载:www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载:www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载:www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载:www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛:www.1ppt.cn PPT ...
沪锌:下游步入淡季,价格延续震荡
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 09:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro**: As of the end of May, China's broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Narrow money (M1) balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. In the first five months, net cash investment was 30.64 billion yuan [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, zinc prices continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical events had little impact on zinc prices. In June, the downstream entered the off - season, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of social inventories. In terms of fundamentals, the cyclical supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc ore projects at home and abroad have production increase plans. The recovery of global zinc ore production has led to a continuous marginal strengthening of zinc ore spot TC. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased, and maintenance has been postponed. The output of refined zinc has marginally recovered, and the production increase situation in the ore and smelting ends is expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there is a hidden worry of contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate maintains resilience, there is no expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, and it will mainly remain at the existing level. Whether the demand is estimated to be optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [6]. - **Strategy**: In the short and medium term, due to the low level of social inventories, the monthly spread is still wide, and the back structure is deep, supporting the near - month contracts. However, with the continuous recovery of the smelting end, the high premium is expected to be temporary. In terms of strategy, short positions can still be considered for far - month contracts when prices are high [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Fundamentals - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In March 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0184 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%. The international long - term TC price of zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and was halved compared with the previous year. Overseas high - cost smelters may face operational pressure. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was seriously overestimated, and the trend of marginal loosening of zinc ore supply has not changed [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to April, China's cumulative import of zinc concentrate was 1.7137 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.5%. The increase in imported ore volume boosted the processing fees. As of June 13, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $53/ton, and the processing fee for domestic ore was reported at 3,600 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees have been raised several times recently [11]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, the profits of smelters have been continuously improved [14]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In March 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1219 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.91%. In May 2025, China's refined zinc output was 550,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. As profits recover, output is gradually increasing [18]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to April 2025, China's cumulative net import of refined zinc was 120,000 tons. The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. 3.2 Industry Fundamentals - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In April, China's galvanized sheet output was 2.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.64%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Infrastructure and Real Estate**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) declined. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction were still weak [27]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Automobiles and Home Appliances**: In May 2025, China's automobile output was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [30]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **Inventory**: At low prices, downstream enterprises made excessive purchases to replenish inventories, and social inventories continued to decline. As the off - season approaches, the inflection point of social inventories is approaching [32]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of June 13, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount of zinc was reported at a discount of $22.95/ton. Due to the low level of social inventories, the spot premium was high [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of June 6, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 11,086 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [38].
钢矿周度报告2025-06-16:供需结构转弱,黑色弱势震荡-20250616
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 09:04
Report Title - Steel and Ore Weekly Report (2025-06-16): Supply-Demand Structure Weakens, Black Market in Weak Oscillation [1] Research Team - Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center, Black Industry Group [2] - Researchers: Xie Chen, Yang Hui [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - The supply-demand structure of steel products continues to weaken this week, and it is expected that the black market will remain in a weak operation overall. Maintain a bearish view and cash in some profits when a new low is reached [7]. - Last week, the supply of iron ore improved, demand continued to slow down, and the supply-demand pattern weakened overall. This week, it may still trade on the logic of inventory accumulation of building materials in the off-season, and ore prices will remain in a weak operation. Maintain a shorting strategy, add short positions moderately on rebounds, and hold them in the medium term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Last week, rebar was still operating at a low level below 3000, and the market sentiment remained weak. The 10 - contract fell 6 to close at 2969. The spot price oscillated, with rebar in East China reported at 3080 yuan/ton, down 40 week - on - week [12]. 1.2 Supply - The output of blast furnaces decreased slightly, and electric furnaces continued to cut production. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased for five consecutive weeks. The average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased. Short - process steel mills still face large - scale losses, and production cuts are expected to continue. Rebar production decreased, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 4.1 tons to 324.7 tons week - on - week [18][21][25]. 1.3 Demand - Building material demand decreased month - on - month, and the domestic demand for plates also weakened. The capital availability rate of construction sites decreased, and the actual demand for building materials decreased significantly due to the off - season and bad weather. The domestic demand for hot - rolled coils may decline faster in the consumption off - season, and the manufacturing industry faces increasing downward pressure [28][32]. 1.4 Profit - The profit of long - process steel remained at a high level, while the profit of electric furnaces continued to decline. The profit of long - process building materials was around 70 - 100, and the profit of hot - rolled coils was around 150 - 200. As of the 13th, the national average profit of short - process was - 124 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was - 21 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton day - on - day [36]. 1.5 Inventory - The inventory reduction speed of building materials was average, and the inventory of plates continued to accumulate. Rebar social and steel mill inventories decreased, while hot - rolled coil factory and social inventories increased [39][43]. 1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar narrowed significantly. The current rebar 10 basis is 101, narrowing 54 from last week. Continue to hold reverse arbitrage positions and pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity around 80 [48]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread narrowed by 3 to 1, and the inverted situation was completely reversed. The near - month contract faces off - season pressure, and the far - month contract also faces trade conflict interference. The price difference is expected to fluctuate around par [52]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has no obvious driving force to continue narrowing. The current futures spread is 113, narrowing 4 from last week, and the spot spread is 90, remaining the same as last week. The spread is at a neutral level, and no operation is recommended [55]. 2. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Iron ore prices oscillated downward, and the futures price rebounded at a low level. Last week, iron ore oscillated weakly, the 09 contract fell 4.5 to close at 703, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port fell 13 to 720 yuan/ton [60]. 2.2 Supply - The shipments from Australia and Brazil were flat, and the arrivals continued to increase. The global iron ore shipments in the current period were 3510.4 tons, up 79 tons week - on - week. The arrivals at 47 ports increased, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past three years [63][69]. 2.3 Demand - The rigid demand decreased as blast furnace output declined, and the speculative demand also decreased as port transactions declined. The daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 241.61 tons/day, down 0.19 tons/day week - on - week. The daily average port transaction volume was 94.9 tons, down 2 tons week - on - week [72][75]. 2.4 Inventory - Port inventory increased, and downstream inventory also increased. The inventory at 47 ports increased by 103 tons to 14503.14 tons, and the inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills increased by 130.63 tons [78][81]. 2.5 Shipping - The freight from Brazil to China increased. The freight from Western Australia to China was 10.3 dollars/ton, remaining basically the same, while the freight from Brazil to China was 26.3 dollars/ton, up 1.8 dollars/ton week - on - week [84]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore narrowed slightly, and the basis also decreased. The 9 - 1 spread was 33, narrowing 3 from last week, and the 09 contract discount was 35, narrowing 6 from last week [86].
玻璃纯碱周报:短期偏弱,预防宏观事件扰动,纯碱,基本面偏空,轻仓参与-20250616
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 09:03
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Short - term weakness, beware of macro - event disturbances [1] - Soda Ash: Bearish fundamentals, recommend light - position participation [1] 2. Core Views - Soda Ash: Demand is relatively stable, but supply is gradually increasing. With high inventory and the expectation of new capacity coming online, the overall situation is one of supply - demand surplus. Maintain a bearish view, but trade with a light position due to the relatively low price level [4] - Glass: Inventory accumulation has slightly decreased, demand remains weak before the rainy season, and recent macro risks have increased significantly. Attention should be paid to short - term risk prevention [41] 3. Soda Ash Summary 3.1 Price - Spot prices are weak this week, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remains stable. In the mainstream trading areas, North China heavy soda ash is 1400 (-50), and East China heavy soda ash is 1375 (-25). The national average price of heavy soda ash is 1350, and that of light soda ash is 1318, with a price difference of +33 (-1) [5] - Futures prices declined. The closing price of the main SA2509 contract is 1156 (-56), the 9 - 1 spread is +3 (-11), and the basis of the main 09 contract is +165 (+32) (using the national average price of heavy soda ash) [10] 3.2 Supply - Last week, soda ash production was 70.41 tons (+1.90, +2.70%), including 32.19 tons of light soda ash (+0.66) and 38.22 tons of heavy soda ash (+1.24). The operating rate was 80.76% (+2.19%), with the ammonia - soda method at 79.3% (+7.89%) and the combined - soda method at 80.41% (+3.87%) [4][16] 3.3 Demand - Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 68.56 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.25%; the overall production - sales ratio was 92.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.58%. Demand slightly weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid needs. Next week, float glass production is expected to increase slightly, while photovoltaic glass production is expected to decrease. In April, soda ash imports were 0.46 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.14 tons; exports were 17.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.51 tons, with a decrease in net exports [4][25] 3.4 Inventory - Last week, soda ash enterprise inventory was 168.63 tons (+5.93, +3.64%), including 81.13 tons of light soda ash inventory (+2.13) and 87.50 tons of heavy soda ash inventory (+3.80). Both light and heavy soda ash inventories increased [4][32] 3.5 Cost - Profit - Last week, the profit of the combined - soda method (double - ton) was 139.5 yuan/ton (-38.5); the profit of the ammonia - soda method was +20.70 yuan/ton (-29.2), showing a slight overall decrease [4][38] 4. Glass Summary 4.1 Price - Spot prices were stable with a weakening trend last week. The ex - factory price of Wuhan Changli's 5mm glass was 1100 (-0), and that of Shahe Anquan's 5mm glass was 1056 (-20), with a price difference of +44 (+20) [42] - The main 2509 contract closed at 996 (-21), the 9 - 1 spread was -59 (-2), and the basis of the main 09 contract was +124 (+21) (using the ex - factory price of Wuhan Changli as the spot benchmark) [41][48] 4.2 Supply - Last week, the daily production of float glass in operation was 15.57 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70%. Float glass production was 109.12 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61%. The operating rate was 75.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75%. There were 297 domestic glass production lines after excluding zombie lines, with 224 in operation and 73 cold - repaired and shut down [41][53] 4.3 Demand - As of the end of May, the order days of deep - processing enterprises were 10.35 days, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous period. The resumption of production of tempering enterprises was slow. The recovery trend at the end of the real estate sector has significantly weakened, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.9% in the completion end from January to April, and the willingness for new construction at the front end remains low, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.8% from January to April. According to CAAM data, in May, automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 1.15% and 3.71% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 11.68% and 11.13% respectively, which is at a relatively high level in recent years [41][63] 4.4 Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.685 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 0.10%. Inventory decreased slightly in North China and East China, while it increased in other regions [41][71] 4.5 Cost - Profit - Last week, the profit of coal - gas - made float glass was +80.72 yuan/ton (-10.24); the profit of natural - gas - made float glass was -182.83 yuan/ton (-12.15); the profit of petroleum - coke - made float glass was -128.47 yuan/ton (-17.17). The industry profit decreased slightly in the short term [41][84]
需求逐渐转淡,铜价高位压力渐显
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 09:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, copper prices retreated from their highs, facing resistance around 79,500. The spot premium was under pressure, and the destocking of social inventories slowed down. The increase in steel and aluminum tariffs in the US did not strongly drive up the copper market. The US economy awaits "hard data," with the manufacturing sector declining, and employment changes should be monitored. The Fed's previous three interest rate cuts were "preventive," but there is a chance the next one could be a "recessionary" cut. [5][84] - In terms of the industrial fundamentals, the issue of low refining processing fees due to raw material supply remains severe, but it has not restricted the actual output of refined copper, with May's refined copper production hitting a new high. Domestic demand is seasonally weakening, the copper product operating rate is declining, and the momentum for further destocking of social inventories is weakening. Currently, the copper fundamentals mainly focus on international trade games, and the siphon effect of US copper prices is leading to continuous destocking of LME copper inventories. [5][84] - Overall, after copper prices faced resistance at high levels and reduced positions to decline, the macro - situation remains under pressure, and fundamental demand has weakened. Consider taking profit on near - month sold CALL options next week and continue to hold far - month bought PUT options. [5][84] 3. Summary According to the Directory Macro - level - In May 2025, the European manufacturing PMI remained stable, and the US manufacturing PMI rebounded. The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4%, up 0.4% from the previous month; Germany's manufacturing increased by 0.4% to 48.8%, and France's by 0.8% to 49.5%. The US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3%, up 2.1 percentage points month - on - month. China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, but still below the boom - bust line for two consecutive months. New orders and new export orders were still weak, and demand was under pressure due to tariff games. [12] - Although the US raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, which strengthened the tariff expectation for copper in the 232 investigation, the impact on the copper market was not as strong as the previous time, and it was not enough to continuously drive up the market. The US economy awaits "hard data," with the manufacturing sector declining, and employment changes should be monitored. [5][13][84] Industry Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - In December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%. From January to December 2024, global copper concentrate production was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. In March 2025, global copper mine production was 1.969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.69%. In March 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons, and in February, it was 180,000 tons. [21] - In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, China's cumulative imports of copper ores and concentrates were 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In April 2025, China imported 2.924 million tons of copper ores and concentrates; from January to April, China imported 10.031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. [24] TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - As of June 13, the copper concentrate index (weekly) was reported at - 44.75 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 1.46 US dollars per dry ton from the previous period. The spot market trading of copper concentrates was inactive this week. [29] Refined Copper Production - In May, SMM's domestic electrolytic copper production increased by 12,600 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.12%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. From January to May, the cumulative production increased by 544,800 tons, an increase of 11.09%. In June, it is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production will decrease by 7,200 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.63%, and a year - on - year increase of 126,100 tons, an increase of 12.55%. From January to June, the cumulative production is expected to increase by 670,900 tons, an increase of 11.34%. [37] Refined Copper Imports - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%. In December 2024, imports were 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In 2024, China exported 457,500 tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 63.86%. In December 2024, exports were 16,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.06% and a year - on - year increase of 55.61%. In April 2025, China imported 250,000 tons of electrolytic copper, a month - on - month decrease of 19.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.97%. [43] Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China's imports of copper scrap and fragments were 217,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. In April 2025, China's imports of copper scrap and fragments showed a "month - on - month recovery and year - on - year contraction" trend, with a single - month import of 204,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.92% but a year - on - year decrease of 9.46%. From January to April, cumulative imports were 777,000 tons, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.81%. The supply of recycled copper raw materials in the market is still very tight. [46] Consumption - end - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024, from January to December, power investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. In 2025, from January to April, power investment was 193.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, and grid investment was 140.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. [52] - **Air - conditioners**: In December 2024, the monthly air - conditioner production was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. In 2025, from January to April, the air - conditioner production was 105.314 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of monthly production slowed down. [56] - **Automobiles**: In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May, automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9%. In May 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9%. From January to May, new energy vehicle production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44%. [60] - **Real Estate**: In 2024, from January to December, the real estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In May 2025, the real estate completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, and the new construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year. [62] Other Elements Inventory - As of June 13, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 412,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 15,200 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 114,500 tons, SHFE inventory increased by 5,461 tons to 101,900 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 8,170 tons to 196,000 tons. As of June 12, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 59,700 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from last week. [64] CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions - As of June 10, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 26,351 lots, a weekly increase of 2,257 lots. The non - commercial long position was 72,101 lots, a weekly increase of 852 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 45,750 lots, a weekly decrease of 1,405 lots. [68] Premiums and Discounts - As of June 13, the LME copper spot premium was 73.41 US dollars per ton. The LME copper spot turned to a premium and rose. The LME copper inventory is shifting in two directions, with some Asian copper inventory flowing to the US market and some European Russian copper inventory flowing to the Chinese market. [78] - During the week, copper prices first rose and then fell, and the spot premium stopped falling and rebounded. Next week, it is expected that there will be concentrated arrivals of goods such as those from Russia. After the contract change, the spot will still start with a high - premium quote, but the transaction is expected to gradually fall back to around 100 yuan per ton. [78] Basis - As of June 13, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous average price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 1,080 yuan per ton. [80] Market Outlook - Macro - level: Copper prices retreated from their highs this week, facing resistance around 79,500. The spot premium was under pressure, and the destocking of social inventories slowed down. The increase in steel and aluminum tariffs in the US was not enough to continuously drive up the market. The US economy awaits "hard data," with the manufacturing sector declining, and employment changes should be monitored. There is a chance that the Fed's next interest rate cut could be a "recessionary" cut. [5][84] - Industry fundamentals: The issue of low refining processing fees due to raw material supply remains severe, but it has not restricted the actual output of refined copper, with May's refined copper production hitting a new high. Domestic demand is seasonally weakening, the copper product operating rate is declining, and the momentum for further destocking of social inventories is weakening. The copper fundamentals mainly focus on international trade games, and the siphon effect of US copper prices is leading to continuous destocking of LME copper inventories. [5][84] - Strategy: Overall, after copper prices faced resistance at high levels and reduced positions to decline, the macro - situation remains under pressure, and fundamental demand has weakened. Consider taking profit on near - month sold CALL options next week and continue to hold far - month bought PUT options. [5][84]
有色金属套利周报20250616-20250616
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 09:03
Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250616 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Consultation Numbers: Z0010675, Z0016959 [2] - Email: wangyh@zxqh.net, zhangjf@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Due to lackluster demand and the impact of the production cycle of domestic and foreign zinc mines, the fundamental pressure on zinc is gradually accumulating. The supply - demand balance of zinc tends to shift towards surplus. It is recommended to participate in the long - aluminum and short - zinc strategy on dips and consider the inter - period positive spread of zinc if the annual demand has no significant highlights [4] Section Summaries 1. Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - **Price Review**: From 2025/6/6 to 2025/6/13, LME copper decreased by 0.24%, LME aluminum increased by 2.10%, LME zinc decreased by 1.35%, LME lead increased by 0.94%, LME nickel decreased by 2.45%, LME tin increased by 1.63%. SHFE copper decreased by 1.17%, SHFE aluminum increased by 1.84%, SHFE zinc decreased by 2.55%, SHFE lead increased by 0.98%, SHFE nickel decreased by 1.87%, SHFE tin increased by 0.03% [8] - **Fund Flow**: Most non - ferrous metals' unilateral open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years. The unilateral open interest of aluminum, zinc, and nickel increased by 15.3%, 27.7%, and 7.0% respectively this week, while that of copper and lead decreased by 3.1% and 4.6% respectively. All major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10] 2. Non - ferrous Metals Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From 2025/6/6 to 2025/6/13, LME copper inventory decreased by 13.54%, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2.92%, LME zinc inventory decreased by 4.36%, LME lead inventory decreased by 5.80%, LME nickel inventory decreased by 1.28%, LME tin inventory decreased by 7.38% [26] - **Profit**: Copper processing fees decreased slightly week - on - week, and smelters' losses were 2,722 yuan/ton with little change in losses week - on - week. The theoretical smelting cost of aluminum was 18,773 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose to 1,987 yuan/ton. The imported processing fees of zinc were flat week - on - week, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic zinc ore was 840 yuan/ton [41] 3. Non - ferrous Metals Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: As of 2025/6/13, the copper basis was 1,080, the aluminum basis was 320, the zinc basis was 455, the lead basis was 15, the nickel basis was 1,920, and the tin basis was 1,990 [44] - **LME Premium/Discount**: Data on LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin premium/discount (0 - 3) is presented from 2019 - 2025 [52] - **Term Structure**: This week, nickel was in a Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in a Back structure. The spreads between the first - nearby contracts of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin changed compared to last week [59] 4. Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio**: The domestic - to - overseas ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the domestic - to - overseas ratios of major metals showed mixed changes. The ratios for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 1.13, 1.14, 1.16, 1.18, 1.11, and 1.12 respectively [77] - **Import Profit/Loss**: This week, the import profit of lead was 321, while the import profits of other major metals were negative. Factors to consider for domestic - overseas arbitrage include the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, domestic and overseas inventory comparisons, and expectations of domestic growth - stabilizing policies [77] 5. Changes in Non - ferrous Metals Cross - variety Ratios - The report provides the current values, values three months ago, and values one year ago of cross - variety ratios and differences among copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, along with their respective quantiles [94]
PTA:地缘影响下,PTA重心上移,MEG:供需由弱转强预期下,MEG反弹修复为主
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA is expected to move up with the cost center in the short - term as international crude oil rises significantly, new PTA plants are put into operation and increase load gradually, domestic supply is expected to rise, and there is an expectation of polyester load reduction during the terminal seasonal off - season [6]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to rebound and repair in the short - term as the cost side moves up, some maintenance devices restart, imports may be affected by geopolitical factors, and there is a strong expectation of turning from weak to strong in supply - demand [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Price Movement**: Due to the smooth progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks, the continuation of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the US, and the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation, oil prices have risen significantly. As of June 13, the Asian PX closing price was at 854 US dollars/ton CFR China, up 36 US dollars/ton from May 30. However, the absolute price increase of PX was less than that of crude oil because multiple PX plants restarted and the downstream polyester performance was not ideal [16]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic PX was 87.27%, a week - on - week increase of 3.83%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Asian PX was 75.29%, a week - on - week increase of 2.81%. It is expected that next week's PX output will increase slightly compared with this week [20]. - **Processing Fee**: As of June 13, the PX - naphtha price spread was 233.3 US dollars/ton, down 24.5 US dollars/ton from June 6. With the rapid recovery of the supply side, the PX - naphtha price spread declined. It is expected that the processing fee will continue to decline next week [23]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Price Movement**: Affected by the sharp rise of international crude oil due to the Middle East geopolitical situation at the end of the week, the absolute price of PTA followed the cost increase. As of June 13, the PTA spot price reached 5015 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2509 + 221 [27]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA reached 83.25%, a week - on - week increase of 4.24%. In June, it is expected that the PTA capacity utilization rate will increase significantly as some devices have maintenance expectations and some are planned to restart [31]. - **Processing Fee**: This week, the PTA processing fee continued to rise. However, with new device production and the restart of previous maintenance devices, supply is expected to increase continuously. With poor terminal performance and strong polyester production reduction atmosphere, it is expected that the PTA processing fee will decline slightly next week [34]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In June, with the co - existence of PTA device maintenance and restart and the expectation of polyester load reduction, the PTA supply - demand will shift from destocking to a tight balance [35]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Price Movement**: This week, Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol bottomed out and stabilized. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation at the end of the week, with the expectation of supply reduction and cost support, MEG slightly rose. As of June 13, the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol price was 4426 yuan/ton, and the South China market delivery price was 4530 yuan/ton [41]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The total capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol was 55.07%, a week - on - week increase of 2.71%. The output of domestic factories has increased this week as some coal - chemical factories restarted and some integrated maintenance devices resumed work [42]. - **Inventory**: As of June 12, the total MEG port inventory in the main ports of East China was 56.38 tons, an increase of 1.67 tons compared with June 9. As of June 18, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 9.88 tons [47]. - **Production Profit**: The profits of all Chinese ethylene glycol process samples declined across the board. As of June 13, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol was - 87.69 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11.02 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was 72.85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68.88 yuan/ton compared with last week [51]. 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester was 88.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44%. In June, it is expected that the monthly polyester output will decline significantly as supply reduction may be greater than increase due to poor demand and fewer days [53][58]. - **Product Inventory**: This week, the overall polyester production and sales were sluggish, and the industry inventory slightly increased [63]. - **Cash Flow**: Entering the traditional off - season, affected by weak terminal consumption, the polyester cash flow may continue to be compressed [66]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of June 12, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.02%, a decrease of 0.24% compared with the previous period. The average order days of terminal weaving were 9.91 days, a decrease of 0.51 days compared with last week [71]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: Oil prices have risen significantly, but the absolute price increase of PX is less than that of crude oil [74]. - **Supply Side**: PTA production increased significantly this week, and the ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate increased [74]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester capacity utilization rate declined slightly, and the weaving starting rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased [74]. - **Inventory**: PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the MEG port inventory in East China increased [74].
向下有政策托市,向上缺乏明显驱动
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:46
向下有政策托市 向上缺乏明显驱动 正信期货生猪周报 2025-6-16 正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 生猪 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周样本养殖企业商品猪出栏均重小幅下降、标肥价差明显走低、大猪出栏占比小幅增加。 | | | | 近期,上市猪企5月销售数据陆续出炉。从21家上市猪企的出栏量来看,13家企业环比下降,合计减 | | | 供应 | 少超30万头。这也是2025年以来,上市猪企合计出栏量连续2个月环比下降。不过同比来看,仍以增 | 偏空 | | | 量为主。5月下旬以来,多家头部猪企都接到了相关部门通知,要求降低出栏体重,因此6月或提升 | | | | 出栏量以降低出栏均重。 | | | | 本周屠宰开工小幅上升,屠宰利润小幅上升,鲜效率持续下降,冻品库存小幅上升处于近4年历史同 期低位。 | | | | 6月11日中央储备库进行今年以来首次真正意义的国产冻猪肉收储,此前5次收储都属于等量轮储, | | | 需求 | 此次承储企业需在8月10日前保质保量完成入库。此次启动猪肉收储与前期限制母猪产能扩张、降低 | 偏多 | | | ...
豆粕周报:美国生柴政策利好,美豆及连粕震荡走高-20250616
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:45
Report Overview - Report Title: "US Biodiesel Policy Benefits, US Soybeans and Dalian Soybean Meal Fluctuate Higher" [1] - Report Date: June 16, 2025 - Report Author: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Group [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, soybean meal continued to rebound. The June USDA report had a neutral impact, but the biodiesel policy stimulated short - term US soybeans to fluctuate strongly. From May to July in China, soybean supply is sufficient, and the spot supply of soybean meal is generally loose. Currently, downstream提货 is strong, and the spot shows fluctuations. In the fourth quarter, as oil mills start procurement, the rising Brazilian soybean premium will push up the import cost of Dalian soybean meal. In the long - term, the reduction of US soybean planting area is basically certain, which supports the bullish sentiment for far - month soybean meal. It is recommended to buy far - month soybean meal at low prices. Specifically, continue to buy soybean meal 09 at low prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - The June USDA report was neutral, with no adjustments to new - crop US soybeans and old - crop South American soybeans. The market focused on US soybean exports and new - crop growth. Last week, US soybean export net sales were 11.9 tons, in line with expectations but down significantly from the previous week. The good weather in US soybean - producing areas put pressure on US soybeans. However, the US biodiesel policy increased the blending volume in the next two years, boosting US soybeans [6]. - In China, 13.92 million tons of soybeans were imported in May. The large arrival of soybeans supported the oil mills' operating rate to return to normal, resulting in a loose spot supply of soybean meal. Meanwhile, strong downstream transactions and pick - ups supported the spot price. Oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories entered an accumulation cycle, with soybean inventory at 6.1029 million tons, an increase of 274,100 tons from the previous week, and soybean meal inventory at 382,500 tons, an increase of 84,500 tons [6]. 3.2 Market Review - As of June 13, CBOT soybeans closed at 1068.50 cents per bushel, up 10.50 points from the previous week, a weekly increase of 0.99%. M2509 soybean meal closed at 3041 yuan per ton, up 31 points from the previous week, a weekly increase of 1.03% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis Cost Side - **Weather and Sowing**: In the next two weeks, there will be sufficient rainfall and slightly higher temperatures in US soybean - producing areas. As of the week of June 8, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, in line with market expectations; the planting rate was 90%, lower than the expected 91% [13][21]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week of June 5, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/2025 season were 61,000 tons, down from 194,000 tons in the previous week; for the 2025/2026 season, the net sales were 58,000 tons, up from 4,000 tons in the previous week [13][25]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: As of June 12, the Argentine soybean harvest rate was 95%, up from 91% last week [13][28]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The estimated Brazilian soybean exports in June 2025 are 14.08 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons year - on - year. As the sales pressure eases, the near - month soybean premium has gradually stabilized [34]. Supply - In the 23rd week (May 31 - June 6), a total of 39 ships, about 2.535 million tons of soybeans, arrived at domestic full - sample oil mills [13][37]. Demand - In the 24th week (June 7 - 13), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2587 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.49%, 28,600 tons lower than the estimate. In the same week, soybean meal transactions increased to 1.7385 million tons, and pick - ups increased to 973,800 tons [13][42]. Inventory - In the 23rd week, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased to 6.1029 million tons, an increase of 274,100 tons from the previous week, a 4.70% increase. The soybean meal inventory increased to 382,500 tons, an increase of 84,500 tons from the previous week, a 28.36% increase [13][45]. 3.4 Spread Tracking - The report mentions spread tracking items such as soybean meal basis (Jiangsu), oil - meal ratio, soybean meal 9 - 1 spread, and soybean - rapeseed meal spread, but no specific data analysis is provided [48][50][53].
碳酸锂周报20250616:多空存分歧,碳酸锂窄幅震荡-20250616
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 656 tons week - on - week to 18,100 tons. There is an incremental expectation for non - integrated supply in June due to the reduction in lithium ore costs. In May, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 9,700 tons, a significant month - on - month decrease of 38%. The domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 1,117 tons week - on - week to 133,500 tons, with smelters and other sectors having a slight inventory build - up, and the overall inventory remaining at a high level. In the medium - to - long term, the pressure of oversupply of lithium carbonate in the next two years is still large [5][6]. - In June, downstream demand was basically flat month - on - month. The production schedule of the power sector declined, while there was a certain behavior of rush - exporting for energy - storage cells. The terminal market maintained a relatively fast growth rate. In May, the sales volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China was 1.307 million, a year - on - year increase of 36.9% [6]. - This week, the price of spodumene concentrate was basically flat week - on - week, while the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 3.4% week - on - week. Overseas mines had a strong sentiment of price support, but downstream lithium salt plants had low willingness to take delivery [6]. - Considering the decrease in imported lithium carbonate, it is expected that the supply and demand will be in a tight balance or there will be a slight inventory reduction in June, but the medium - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change. Near the end of the second quarter, both upstream and downstream have certain inventory management needs. The high inventory exerts a certain suppression on lithium prices, but further downward movement is likely to trigger supply disturbances. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate. In the medium term, the idea of shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the trends at the mine end [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Supply Side - **Lithium Spodumene Import Volume in April Increased Slightly Month - on - Month**: From January to April, China imported 2.315 million tons of lithium spodumene. In April, the import volume was 622,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. Among them, 1.179 million tons were imported from Australia, accounting for 50.9%; 343,000 tons from South Africa, accounting for 14.3%; and 315,000 tons from Zimbabwe, accounting for 13.6% [10]. - **The Decline of Lithium Concentrate Slowed Down**: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate was basically flat week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 3.4% week - on - week. Overseas mines on the spodumene side had a strong sentiment of price support, with the SC6 quotation remaining above $630 per ton. Some traders were eager to sell due to factors such as hedging or inventory pressure [13]. - **Domestic Lithium Carbonate Production in June May Slightly Increase Month - on - Month**: In May, the total production of SMM lithium carbonate decreased by 2% month - on - month and increased by 15% year - on - year. By raw material, the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene and recycling decreased by 4% and 13% month - on - month respectively, while the production from lepidolite and salt lakes increased by 2% and 3% month - on - month respectively. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production will slightly increase month - on - month in June as the profitability of subcontractors has recovered and the production of the salt - lake sector has increased with the warming weather [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate Import Volume and Its Changes**: From January to April, China imported 78,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year increase of 26.8%. Among them, 53,200 tons were imported from Chile, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%, and 22,600 tons from Argentina, a year - on - year increase of 80.7%. According to Chilean customs, in May, the scale of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 9,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38%. It is expected that this part of lithium carbonate will arrive in China from late June to July [20]. - **Spot Prices Were Basically Flat Week - on - Week**: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,700 yuan per ton, basically flat week - on - week. Market transactions were relatively dull. Lithium salt plants were reluctant to sell at low prices, but downstream buyers mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 59,050 yuan per ton, also basically flat week - on - week [21]. Demand Side - **The Global New - Energy Vehicle Market Started Well**: The new - energy vehicle industry accounts for about 62% of the global lithium carbonate demand. In the first quarter of 2025, the global sales volume of electric vehicles was 4.1 million, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Among them, the sales volume in Europe was 900,000, a year - on - year increase of 22%; in North America, 500,000, a year - on - year increase of 16%; and in China, 2.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 36%. The markets in China and Europe had strong growth, while the growth rate in the United States declined due to political factors [26]. - **The Production of Power Batteries Maintained a High Growth Rate**: In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03% and a year - on - year increase of 49.0%. From January to April, the cumulative production was 444.6 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 67.1%. From January to April, the cumulative sales volume was 403.9 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 73.7%. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of power batteries was 303.9 GWh, accounting for 75.2% of the total sales volume, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 56.8%; the cumulative sales volume of other batteries was 100.0 GWh, accounting for 24.8% of the total sales volume, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 157.8% [36]. - **The Year - on - Year Increase of Domestic Mobile Phone Shipments Was Slight**: In the first quarter of 2025, the shipment volume of the domestic smartphone market was 71.6 million, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. From January to December 2024, the production volume of electronic computer units in the first quarter was 85.322 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%, showing positive growth for two consecutive quarters, which was driven by the upgrading of the entire industrial chain under the impetus of technologies such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence [41]. - **The Energy - Storage Installation in May Maintained a High Growth Rate**: According to incomplete statistics from CNESA DataLink, in May this year, the newly commissioned installed capacity of new - energy storage projects in China totaled 6.32 GW/15.85 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 193%/228%. The "531" rush - installation contributed a certain increment. The joint release of the "Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting the Development of New - Energy Storage" by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration clarified that "new - energy projects should not be required to be equipped with energy storage compulsorily". After the cancellation of the compulsory energy - storage installation, the energy - storage installation ratio will decrease, which may affect the demand for lithium iron phosphate by about 3% [46]. - **The Downstream Production Schedule in June Increased Slightly Month - on - Month**: This week, the theoretical production profit of ternary material enterprises was 3,430 yuan per ton, a decrease of 40 yuan per ton compared with last week. The profit of ternary material enterprises increased slightly month - on - month, but the overall profitability was not optimistic. According to research, downstream demand in June may increase slightly month - on - month. The production schedule at the power end declined, and there was a certain behavior of rush - exporting for energy - storage cells [52]. Other Indicators - **The Cost of Non - Integrated Lithium Salt Plants Was Inverted**: Recently, as the price of lithium concentrate stabilized, the production cost of lithium salt plants increased slightly. The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene was 70,242 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 779 yuan per ton. At the current lithium price, manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene have fallen into losses. The theoretical production profit was - 9,442 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 679 yuan per ton [49]. - **The Basis Widened This Week**: This week, the basis of lithium carbonate was 710, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. The closing price of the main futures contract of lithium carbonate was 59,940 yuan per ton, and the basis of the contract widened. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was flat week - on - week, at 1,600 yuan per ton [55]. - **The Spread Between Contracts Narrowed**: This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure, and the spread between the first - month and near - month contracts was negative. The spread between the first - month and near - month contracts was - 40, an increase of 340 compared with last week, and the spreads between different contracts narrowed [59].