正信期货铜周报20250512 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 内容要点 宏观层面：节后铜价维持高位震荡走势，关税方面有缓和，COMEX-LME价差收敛，美国非农 就业有韧性，失业率维持4.2%，美国经济目前处于"软数据"大幅回落， "硬数据"尚可的阶 段，美联储重申不急降息的模糊态度，仍以控通胀的货币政策目标为主，我们认为美国经济的 走弱有一定持续性，但目前尚未完全触及衰退，关税政策带来的实际影响逐步体现，可能加速 这一进程，同时美联储依然难以降息，给出的预期管理方向比较模糊，这使得市场担忧衰退实 际发生后美联储才会有所行动，导致铜价从估值角度来看已经承压。国内端聚焦于政策刺激， 内需有支撑。 产业基本面：产业端的主要逻辑在于冶炼端的减产是否真实发生，在利润继续被侵蚀，矿端 依旧偏紧，铜价表现不佳的三重压力下冶炼困境比去年更甚。价格可能通过下跌的方式来淘汰 部分产能，但供给收缩后铜价将再度释放价格弹性。 策略：节前在国内高涨的买货情绪下， ...

主要观点 等待产地月报，内外棕榈油跌势放缓 正信期货棕榈油周报 20250512 分析师：张翠萍 投资咨询证号：Z0016574 2 3 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目 录 CONTENTS 4 价差跟踪 PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuw en/ 数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxu e/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ ...

美棉震荡偏弱，郑棉低位震荡 棉花周报 20250512 正信期货研究院—农产品小组 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目录 CONTENTS PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/PPT教程：www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cnPPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuwen/数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxue/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yingyu/美术课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/meishu/ 科学 ...

利润出现亏损 淘鸡意愿提升 正信期货鸡蛋周报 2025-5-12 正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 鸡蛋 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周样本养殖企业淘鸡价格明显下降， 淘鸡日龄小幅下降，大小码价差基本持平，鸡苗价 | | | 供应 | 格高位持续回落。 | 偏空 | | | 本周多地淘鸡价跟随蛋价下跌，部分规模化养殖企业顺势淘汰低产能老鸡，辽宁、山东等地 | | | | 老鸡淘汰量小幅增加，但要形成有效的去产能，仍需要时间。 | | | | 本周主销区销量小幅下降，主产区发货量小幅下降，流通库存和生产环节库存小幅下降。 | | | 需求 | 五一之后蛋价连续下跌，激发了下游市场的抄底情绪，经销商拿货积极性有所带动，产区走 | 中性 | | | 货加快，但终端市场消化节奏一般。随着南方逐渐进入梅雨季，高温高湿条件下，需求面临 | | | | 下降，而供应却在加速增长，供强需弱格局有望延续。 | | | 利润 | 养殖利润大幅走低，低于近4年同期平均水平。 | 偏多 | | | 目前养殖利润出现亏损，养殖户可能加速淘汰低效产能。 | | | | 本 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for the pig industry is "oscillating," with a "neutral" rating for supply, a "bearish" rating for demand, a "neutral" rating for profit, and a "bullish" rating for price and volume [3] Core Viewpoints - The pig industry may enter a pressure cycle in 2025, and prices will face long - term downward pressure, but there may be short - term support for pig prices in the second quarter due to disease disturbances and breeding sentiment [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - This week, the basis of live pigs increased slightly, and the futures were in a slight discount state, limiting the downward space. The spread between near - and far - term live pig futures increased slightly and was at a relatively high level in the same period of history. The net short positions of institutional investors in the main live pig futures contract were decreasing [3] Supply Analysis - The average weight of commercial pig sales of sample breeding enterprises this week was basically flat, the spread between standard and fat pigs widened slightly, and the proportion of large pigs continued to increase. Since this year, the spread between near - and far - term live pig futures has remained high, and the term structure is almost horizontal, reflecting the market's balanced expectation of the supply - demand relationship. In the long - term, the hedging behavior dominated by funds in the pig industry strengthens the linkage between futures and spot, and the pricing of long - term futures contracts mainly revolves around costs. The near - term contracts have significantly enhanced resistance to decline due to disease disturbances and breeding sentiment [3] Demand Analysis - This week, slaughter orders decreased slightly, slaughter profits increased slightly, the fresh meat efficiency was basically flat, and the frozen product inventory rebounded slightly and was at a low level in the same period of the past four years. After the May Day holiday, pork purchases and sales returned to rationality, the purchasing and sales enthusiasm in cities decreased, orders of mainstream slaughtering enterprises decreased, and the operating rate gradually declined [3] Profit Analysis - The self - breeding and self - raising breeding profit is around the break - even point, and the pig - grain ratio is significantly higher than the average level in the same period of the past four years. In 2024, Muyuan Co., Ltd. had a net profit of 17.881 billion yuan, ranking first, with a year - on - year increase of 519.42%. In 2024, Muyuan significantly reduced the pig breeding cost from 15.8 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 13 yuan/kg in December, with an average annual breeding cost of about 14 yuan/kg. In 2025, Muyuan further reduced the cost, and the full cost of pig breeding in March has dropped to 12.5 yuan/kg, with a target of reducing the average annual cost to 12 yuan/kg in 2025 [3]

宏观预期降温，黑色震荡下行 钢矿周度报告 2025-05-12 正信期货产业研究中心 黑色产业组 研究员：谢晨 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0001703 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：xiec@zxqh.net Email：yangh@zxqh.net 报告主要观点 报告主要观点 | 版块 | 关键词 价格 | 主要观点 现货继续下跌，盘面弱势运行 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 供给 库存 | 高炉产量高位，电炉继续减产 建材库存开始累积，板材库存同步走高 | | | 需求 | 建材需求环比增速放缓，板材需求内弱外强 | | 钢 | | | | 材 | 利润 | 高炉利润走扩，电炉亏损扩大 | | | 基差 | 基差小幅走扩，正套注意止盈 | | | | 中美贸易冲突进入谈判环节，国内政策落地，美联储按兵不动；产业变化：上周高炉产量继续增加，电炉开工环比继续回落，五大材开始减产，短流程亏 损减产，螺纹供应下降，板类产量变化不大；需求方面，混凝土发运回落，建材需求环比增速继续放缓；板类需求同步放慢，出口继续高位但增速明显放 | | | 总结 | 缓，内外需求下行压力较大；库存 ...

终端需求放缓，盘面弱势难改 煤焦周度报告 20250512 正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 国内政策提振有限，盘面大幅下跌；二轮提涨搁置，现货暂稳 | | | 供给 | 焦企盈利继续修复，焦炭供应维持高位 | | | 需求 | 铁水增长停滞，后期有下滑预期；投机情绪弱化，出口利润下滑，建材现货日成交量较低 | | | 库存 | 全环节降库，总库存下滑 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利继续修复，焦炭盘面利润小幅下滑 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭09升水转为基本平水，9-1价差略走强 | | | 总结 | 上周国内宏观政策落地，地产方面未出新的实质性利好，对黑色提振有限；而五大材减产却累库，表需下滑超预期，市场情绪转弱，双焦重回跌势。截 至周五收盘，焦炭09合约跌6.47%至1446.5，焦煤09合约跌5.39%至877.5。焦炭方面，现货暂稳，焦企盈利尚可，开工率维持高稳。需求方面，铁水虽 维持高位，但基本停止增长，短期原料刚需尚有支撑，然终端需求放缓，铁水后期有下滑压力。盘面大跌后，贸易商投机情绪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the pulp market have slightly improved, with port inventories being depleted. However, pressure still remains. Some traders have tentatively raised their quotes, and the macro - sentiment has improved over the weekend. This week, the main pulp futures price is expected to rebound within a certain range, but the upside space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review** - **Needle - stable and Broad - weak**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp showed a trend of stable needle pulp and weak broad - leaf pulp. In Shandong, the quotes of coniferous pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood remained unchanged, while the quotes of broad - leaf pulp such as Goldfish, Bird, and Alpa decreased. The Goldfish was quoted at 4,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (or - 1.2%); the Bird and Alpa were quoted at 4,050 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton (or - 2.41%) [10]. - **Stable Prices of Special Pulps**: The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp in Shandong remained stable. For example, the chemical mechanical pulp Kunhe was quoted at 3,900 yuan/ton, and the natural color pulp Venus was quoted at 5,350 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous week [13]. - **Pulp Futures Review**: The main pulp futures contract SP2507 first declined, then rebounded, and fluctuated within a 90 - point range last week. It finally closed at 5,164 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (or + 0.86%) for the week. The trading volume was 791,000 lots, an increase of 102,000 lots, and the open interest was 115,000 lots, a decrease of 2,200 lots [15]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: Due to the stable increase in the spot price of wood pulp being slightly less than the increase in the pulp futures price, the basis discount of futures - spot narrowed slightly. The basis discount between coniferous wood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract was 1,036 yuan/ton, a reduction of 44 yuan/ton compared with last week [19]. - **Log Futures Review**: The main log futures contract 2507 showed a trend of first rising, then falling, and fluctuating last week. It finally closed at 784.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 4.0 yuan/cubic meter (or - 0.51%) from the previous week. The trading volume was 61,000 lots, an increase of 30,500 lots, and the open interest was 30,700 lots, an increase of 2,000 lots [21]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the weekly pulp production was 465,700 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons (or 0.56%) compared with the previous week. The production of broad - leaf pulp was 215,400 tons, and the production of chemical mechanical pulp was 200,700 tons. It is expected that the production of domestic broad - leaf pulp this week will be about 205,000 tons, and the production of chemical mechanical pulp will be about 200,000 tons [23]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp last week was 79.59%, up 2.06% from the previous week, while that of chemical mechanical pulp was 84.11%, down 0.98% [26]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In April 2025, the domestic pulp production was 1.9997 million tons, a decrease of 213,300 tons (or 9.64%) compared with the previous month. The production of wood pulp, broad - leaf pulp, and chemical mechanical pulp all decreased [28]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization**: In April 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 69.22%, down 12.37% from the previous month, and that of chemical mechanical pulp was 83.62%, down 0.74%. The production of bamboo pulp and sugarcane pulp also decreased slightly [33]. - **Production Gross Margin**: In April 2025, the production gross margin of broad - leaf pulp was 1,021.81 yuan/ton, a decrease of 278.25 yuan/ton (or 21.4%) compared with the previous month and a significant year - on - year decrease. The production gross margin of chemical mechanical pulp was - 225.45 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.84 yuan/ton compared with the previous month [34]. - **Pulp Imports**: In March 2025, the pulp import volume was 3.2491 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons (or 0.9%) compared with the previous month and an increase of 79,000 tons (or 2.50%) year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to March was 9.64 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons (or 5%) year - on - year [37]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 278,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (or 0.36%) compared with the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 62.9%, up 0.2% [40]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: In the cultural paper market last week, the copperplate paper production was 74,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons (or 3.9%), and the capacity utilization rate was 54.6%, down 2.5%. The offset paper production was 201,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons (or 0.5%), and the capacity utilization rate was 56.3%, up 0.2% [44]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: In the packaging paper market last week, the production of white cardboard, whiteboard paper, corrugated paper, and boxboard paper all decreased, and their capacity utilization rates also declined to varying degrees [47][50]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: In the tissue paper market, most prices remained stable, while some decreased slightly. In the cultural paper market, the prices of double - offset paper and double - copper paper decreased. In the whiteboard paper and white cardboard markets, prices were weak, and in the boxboard paper and corrugated paper markets, prices remained stable [51][54][56]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In April 2025, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tissue paper, white cardboard, and double - offset paper decreased, while that of copperplate paper increased slightly. The actual domestic pulp consumption also decreased [59][62][65]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Last week, the overall port inventory showed a downward trend. The inventory of mainstream ports was 2.035 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (or 3.05%) compared with the previous week. The inventory of Qingdao Port, Changshu Port, and Tianjin Port all decreased [69][72]. - **Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts**: Last week, the pulp futures warehouse receipts were 320,600 tons, an increase of 9,338 tons (or 3.0%) compared with the previous week. The warehouse receipts in Shandong increased, with significant changes in some warehouses [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In May, the macro environment is changing. With the repair of overseas equity risk appetite, the boost of domestic macro - policies, and the marginal mitigation of tariff disturbances, the RMB exchange rate and the domestic equity market are likely to remain strong. The investment strategy is to go long on pullbacks and take profits on rallies. The CSI 300 Index has support at 3600 - 3700 and resistance at 4000 - 4100 [2][18] Summary by Directory Market Performance - **Market Review**: After the holiday, the index oscillated upward with all sectors closing higher. By May 9, the CSI 300 fell 0.36%, the SSE 50 fell 0.84%, the CSI 500 rose 0.46%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.50%. IF fell 0.55%, IH fell 1.01%, IC rose 0.35%, and IM rose 0.59%. The net short positions of IF and IC held by the top 20 institutional members decreased, while those of IH and IM increased [1][4] - **Liquidity and Capital**: By May 9, the overnight Shibor rate dropped 26 basis points, and DR007 dropped 25.77 basis points. The inter - bank market interest rate declined marginally. The net outflow of funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 115.282 billion, with the main board having a net outflow of 75.083 billion and the GEM having a net outflow of 25.099 billion. The margin trading balance increased by about 17.394 billion. Foreign capital data was suspended [4][5] Macroeconomic Fundamentals - In April, CPI continued to be under pressure with deflationary pressure remaining. Food CPI rebounded, non - food CPI declined, and optional consumption demand was weak. PPI of production and living materials continued to decline, indicating weak manufacturing demand. The Politburo meeting emphasized more active macro - policies. After the May Day holiday, reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were implemented. Although the Q1 economy recovered better than expected, the Q2 economy faces significant downward pressure [13][15] Views and Strategies - Overseas, the US - UK trade agreement boosted market sentiment. The US economy showed resilience, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Earnings reports and trade negotiations supported the US stock market. Domestically, the index adjustment in April digested negative impacts. In May, macro - policies provided support, and market risk appetite is expected to gradually recover. The investment strategy is to go long on pullbacks and take profits on rallies [17][18]

作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 PTA：原料强势支撑下，PTA偏暖震荡 MEG：供需格局尚可，MEG短期延续低位反弹 正信期货聚酯周报 20250512 | | | 元/吨 | | POY | FDY | DTY | 开工率 | 元/吨 | | | 元/吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格 | 5805 | 瓶片 | 价格 | 6525 | 6550 | 7775 | 92 | 长丝 | 价格 | 6385 | 短纤 | | 涨跌 | 1.49% | | 涨跌 | 1.56% | 0.77% | 0.97% | | | 涨跌 | 0.71% | | | 加工利润 | 5805 | | 利润 | -57.3167 | -248.983 | 41.6667 | | | 加工利润 | -193.983 | | | 利润涨跌 | 0.26% | | ...