Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term tariff negotiation results lead to the retreat of risk - aversion sentiment, but in the long run, the re - balance of global asset allocation and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing will support gold to continue attracting incremental funds, and the bull market is not over. Different metal varieties have different trends and investment strategies [1][3] - For gold, it is in high - level adjustment in the short - term, and has long - term strategic allocation value. For silver, it is in wide - range adjustment. For copper, it is advisable to buy on dips. For zinc, it is recommended to sell on rallies. For lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel, their prices are expected to rebound and then fall. For industrial silicon and lithium carbonate, they are in low - level oscillations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Situation**: Due to the better - than - expected Sino - US tariff negotiation, gold has a large - scale adjustment. Gold prices in both SHFE and COMEX have declined, and the gold - silver ratio has also decreased. The dollar index has risen, and the real yield of US Treasury bonds has increased [2] - **Core Logic**: Short - term factors include the better - than - expected Sino - US trade negotiation results, postponed interest - rate cut expectations, and record - high US customs tariff revenues. Long - term factors are the re - balance of global asset allocation and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term gold may continue to adjust, and pay attention to the performance around 750. Long - term investors should wait for stabilization before entering the market. Silver may continue to oscillate in the range of [8020, 8350] [3] Copper - **Market Situation**: With the rise of the dollar index, copper prices rise first and then fall. The prices of SHFE copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper have all declined slightly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply is disturbed, and the processing fee of copper concentrate hits a new low. The inventory outside the US is decreasing, and there is a risk of soft squeeze in the domestic market [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions, and some can take profits on rallies. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. The short - term range of SHFE copper is [77500, 78500], and that of LME copper is [9200, 9600] dollars per ton [7] Zinc - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices rise first and then fall, showing a weak and oscillating trend. The prices of SHFE zinc and LME zinc have declined slightly [8][9] - **Core Logic**: The supply of zinc mines is expected to be loose in 2025, but the export of a certain mine may be postponed. The domestic production of zinc ingots in April has increased, while the downstream demand is weakening [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rallies in the short - term. In the long - term, take the opportunity to go short when the price rallies. The range of SHFE zinc is [22000, 22500], and that of LME zinc is [2620, 2680] dollars per ton [10] Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Aluminum prices stabilize and rise, and alumina rebounds from a low level. The prices of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum have increased [11] - **Core Logic**: The overseas trade environment eases. The domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods has decreased, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has increased. The supply of alumina is in excess, and the cost support is weakening [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short - term long on SHFE aluminum on dips and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [19500 - 20100]. Alumina is expected to operate in a weak range [12] Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel prices rebound and then fall, and stainless steel follows the rebound trend. The prices of LME nickel, SHFE nickel, and stainless steel futures have increased [13] - **Core Logic**: The increase in Indonesia's nickel - mine royalty and the news of the Philippines' ore - ban policy support the nickel price. The domestic refined nickel production has increased, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level. The inventory of stainless steel has increased, and the terminal consumption is not optimistic [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [122000 - 129000] [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The main contract LC2507 first hits a new low and then rebounds. The prices of some futures contracts and spot prices have changed slightly [15] - **Core Logic**: The market is facing the dual dilemmas of cost collapse and oversupply. The production cost of overseas mines has decreased, the supply has not seen large - scale and continuous production cuts, and the demand in the second quarter is average [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to rebound in the low - level range of [63300 - 65200] [16]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 震荡偏弱 | 中美经贸谈判取得初步进展，行情反弹已有所反映，市场后期或重新再回 | | 螺纹钢 | | 到基本面交易。本周之后需求或进入季节性淡季，而钢厂在利润驱动下或 | | | | 维持高铁水产量，供需趋于宽松，后期供需矛盾存在激化风险。短期或呈 | | | | 震荡格局，但中期偏弱的判断不变。【3050，3120】 | | 热卷 | 震荡偏弱 | 基本面方面，热卷供应小幅增加，需求降幅较大，库存出现上升。出口仍 | | | | 在高位，但后期有回落风险。宏观消息提振有限，中期延续偏弱运行。【3180， | | | 3260】 | | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量继续增加，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持 | | | | 高位。供给端阶段性发到货双降，铁矿供需结构偏强。后期来看，终端需 | | | | 求边际转弱，与高铁水的分化矛盾逐渐积累。产业基本面恐承压。【700,735】 | | 焦炭 | 偏弱运行 | 铁水日产量维持同期偏高水平。但即使铁水产量高企，原料需求旺盛，仍 | | ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹表需大幅下降 | 77 | 万吨，超过季节性降幅，库存不降反增，供需趋于宽 | 松。行情大幅增仓下行，市场悲观情绪较浓。高铁水背景下需求季节性回 | | 螺纹钢 | 短期反弹 | 落或带来的供需矛盾激化风险。中美经贸谈判取得初步进展，行情短期或 | | | 有反弹。【3000，3100】 | | | | | 基本面方面，热卷供应小幅增加，需求降幅较大，库存出现上升。出口仍 | 热卷 | 短期反弹 | 在高位，但后期有回落风险。宏观消息提振有限，中期延续偏弱运行，短 | | 期受中美谈判进展支撑，或有反弹。【3140，3220】 | | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量继续增加，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持 | 高位。供给短阶段性发到货双降，铁矿供需结构偏强。后期来看，终端需 | | | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 求边际转弱，与高铁水的分化矛盾逐渐积累。产业基本面恐承压。单边短 | | | 线参与，跨期正套持有。【685,720】 | | | | | 铁水日产量维持同期偏高水平。但即使铁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish oscillation. The bullish impact of the China - US trade tariff increase event has temporarily ended. Supply is expected to gradually increase, but the short - term bearish pattern is dominant, and caution is needed when shorting further [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term decline slows down. Although the current inventory has increased, the import volume from May to July is expected to decrease significantly, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced. However, the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bearish. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for the time being. The Southeast Asian palm oil inventory cycle has started, and the oscillation center of palm oil has moved down [1][9]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The supply side maintains a bearish expectation, but the market sentiment has improved due to the improvement of foreign trade data and the expectation of tariff negotiations. However, the short - term upward momentum is lacking [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: Oscillation with a strong bias. The old - crop high - inventory pressure exists, but the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect has gradually emerged, which supports the short - term disk [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Sell on rallies. The pressure of oversupply is expected to dominate the market trend in the second half of 2025. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the 07 and 09 contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **International Situation**: The bullish impact of the China - US trade tariff increase event has ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, and attention should be paid to the subsequent continuous rainfall [1][3]. - **Domestic Situation**: As of May 2, 2025, the national port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks. The soybean crushing has increased slightly month - on - month, and the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is in a state of destocking. The monthly average import from May to July is estimated to be over 10 million tons, and the supply is gradually increasing [3]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, soybean meal continued to trade in a narrow range at a low level. The short - term bearish pattern is dominant, but caution is needed when shorting further. The market is waiting for the US Department of Agriculture report and the progress of China - US trade [1][3]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,899 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3,312.29 yuan/ton, down 1.37% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory Situation**: As of April 30, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories increased month - on - month. As of May 7, the national rapeseed meal inventory increased by 0.88 tons compared with the previous week [7]. - **Supply Outlook**: The import volume from May to July is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure is reduced [1][7]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, rapeseed meal continued to trade in a narrow range and rebounded slightly, but the short - term bearish pattern has not been reversed. Attention should be paid to the export situation of Canadian rapeseed and the US Department of Agriculture report next week [1][7]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,551 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,567.37 yuan/ton, down 0.73% [4]. Palm Oil - **Domestic Situation**: As of May 2, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 35.61 million tons, a decrease of 3.23% compared with the previous week and a decrease of 22.49% compared with the same period last year. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for the time being [9]. - **International Situation**: The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to increase in April. The production and sales of palm oil in Southeast Asia are expected to increase in May, and the inventory cycle has started [1][9]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil traded in a narrow range overnight, and short - term weak consolidation and rebound should be treated with caution [1][9]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 7,886 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from the previous day. The national average price was 8,633 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [8]. Cotton - **International Situation**: As of the week of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and the new cotton planting prospect is optimistic. StoneX expects the cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season to increase by 0.4% year - on - year [11]. - **Domestic Situation**: The intended planting area of cotton in China in 2025 is 43.763 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The production is estimated to exceed 7 million tons. The industrial and commercial inventories are at a high level, and the cotton import in May is expected to shrink. The demand is entering the off - season, and the textile enterprises' orders and operating rates are falling [12]. - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2509 increased by 0.43% during the day. The market sentiment has improved due to the improvement of foreign trade data and the expectation of tariff negotiations, but the short - term upward momentum is lacking [10][11]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2509 closed at 12,950 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The domestic spot price was 14,150 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [10]. Red Dates - **Production Area Situation**: Some jujube trees in southern Xinjiang have germinated, and the current growth situation is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 10,680 tons, an increase of 175 tons compared with the previous week, and still higher than the same period [14]. - **Market Situation**: The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. As the temperature rises, the demand for dried fruits is expected to weaken [14]. - **Market Performance**: The red date main contract CJ2509 decreased by 0.78% during the day. The pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect has gradually emerged, and the short - term disk support is expected to strengthen [13][14]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2509 closed at 9,010 yuan/ton. The price of various grades of red dates in different regions remained stable [13]. Live Pigs - **Short - term Situation**: In April, the slaughter progress of farms was slow, and the supply rhythm slowed down. The theoretical growth of commercial pig slaughter volume from April to June 2025 will slow down [16]. - **Medium - term Situation**: The number of newborn piglets from January to March in the new year has increased month - on - month, indicating that the slaughter volume in the third quarter will face growth pressure [16]. - **Long - term Situation**: The inventory of breeding sows in January 2025 decreased slightly month - on - month, increased in February, and is expected to be slightly lower in March but still above the normal level, which may slightly benefit the supply at the beginning of the next year [16]. - **Market Performance**: The live pig main contract Lh2509 increased by 0.07% during the day. The short - term supply pressure is relatively small, but the long - term supply is expected to be excessive. The 07 and 09 contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies [15][17]. - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2509 closed at 13,925 yuan/ton. The domestic live pig spot price increased by 0.13% to 14,920 yuan/ton on average [15][16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Bullish [1] - L: Bearish [1] - PP: Bearish [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Soda ash: Hold short positions cautiously [1] - Methanol: Bearish/Expand ur - ma spread [1] - Urea: Bullish [1] - Asphalt: Bullish [1] Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment has improved, and oil prices have rebounded strongly. Different petrochemical products show various trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and cost factors [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Last Friday, international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 1.85%, Brent rose 1.70%, and SC rose 1.42% [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The negative impact of OPEC+ production increase has been released. Sino - US trade negotiations have made substantial progress, and the US has imposed new sanctions on some ships and refineries related to Iran. EIA predicts global oil demand in 2025 to be 103.7 million barrels per day. Indian fuel demand in April decreased by 3.7% month - on - month. As of May 2, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ expansion, oil supply will be in surplus, and the price range will be $55 - 65. In the short - term, oil prices are strong but the upside is limited. Selling bull spread options is recommended. SC is expected to trade in the range of [470 - 485] [3]. LPG - **Market Review**: On May 9, the PG main contract closed at 4,385 yuan/ton, down 0.48% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,810 yuan/ton, 4,938 yuan/ton, and 5,130 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is favorable as oil prices strengthen due to geopolitical factors. However, the fundamentals are bearish with a decline in PDH device operating rate and an increase in port inventories. As of May 9, the PDH device profit was - 531 yuan/ton, and the port inventory was 313.54 tons [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, it is mainly affected by upstream crude oil and is bearish. In the short - term, it may rebound due to geopolitical factors and peak - season expectations. Selling bull spread options is recommended. PG is expected to trade in the range of [4340 - 4400] [7]. L - **Market Review**: Futures prices of different contracts declined, and the main contract's position increased by 1.7%. The spot market prices were mostly stable or slightly decreased, and the import and production margins generally declined [9]. - **Basic Logic**: New production capacity has been put into operation this year, and the import window for some products is closed. The demand for agricultural films has declined for four consecutive weeks. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure in the industry chain is increasing. In the long - term, high production capacity and falling oil prices suggest a bearish outlook [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. L is expected to trade in the range of [6900 - 7000] [10]. PP - **Market Review**: Futures prices of different contracts declined slightly, and the main contract's position increased by 2.3%. The spot market prices were mostly stable or slightly decreased, and the production margins generally declined [12]. - **Basic Logic**: A large - scale PP device has been put into operation in the first quarter. It is the off - season for demand, and the planned maintenance in May is limited. In the long - term, high production capacity and falling oil prices suggest a bearish outlook [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. PP is expected to trade in the range of [6900 - 7000] [13]. PVC - **Market Review**: Futures prices of different contracts declined, and the main contract's position increased by 4.8%. The spot market prices were mostly stable, and the chlorine - alkali profit increased [15]. - **Basic Logic**: A new device was put into operation in January. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. Exports are expected to weaken. The register date has been extended, and the warehouse receipts are increasing. The market is bearish in the short - term [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term wait - and - see. V is expected to trade in the range of [4700 - 4830] [16]. PX - **Market Review**: Futures prices of different contracts showed different trends, and the spot price in East China was stable. The basis and some spreads changed [17]. - **Basic Logic**: PX devices are under planned maintenance, and the demand - side device maintenance is high. The inventory is high. In May, the fundamentals will continue to improve, and it is expected to be strong but follow cost fluctuations [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX is expected to trade in the range of [6360 - 6520] [18]. PTA/PR - **Market Review**: Futures prices of different contracts increased, and the spot price in East China rose. The basis and some spreads changed [19]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance is high, and the supply pressure is relieved. The downstream polyester operating rate is high, and the terminal weaving operating rate is recovering. PTA inventory is decreasing. The spot processing fee is at a low level. It is expected to be strong but follow cost fluctuations [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA is expected to trade in the range of [4520 - 4620] [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: Futures prices of different contracts showed different trends, and the spot price in East China rose. The basis and some spreads changed [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply has recovered, and the import is higher than expected. The demand side is good with high polyester load and improving terminal weaving. The inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to be strong, and high - selling opportunities should be noted [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG is expected to trade in the range of [4180 - 4250] [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and the futures market was weak. The basis in Shahe area expanded, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Macro - policies have limited impact on demand. The glass market faces the contradiction between supply contraction and demand decline. The inventory is concentrated in the upstream and mid - stream, and the demand is weak. The price is close to the cost line, and the upside depends on policy effects and supply - side adjustments [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is expected to trade in the range of [1020 - 1050]. Pay attention to the pressure of the 5 - day moving average, and close short positions if it breaks through [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Spot prices of heavy soda were stable, and the futures market fluctuated. The basis fluctuated slightly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Although some devices are under maintenance in May, the operating rate remains high, and the supply is still in surplus. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is at an absolute high level. The cost center is moving down [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is expected to trade in the range of [1280 - 1310] [30]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 9, the spot price in East China was 2,400 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2,227 yuan/ton. The basis and the trans - shipment profit changed [31]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is high as previous maintenance devices have resumed production and overseas imports are expected to arrive. The demand side is weak with low MTO device operating rates and seasonal off - peak traditional demand. The cost support is weak. The social inventory has increased [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA is expected to trade in the range of [2220 - 2280]. Short on rallies [31]. Urea - **Market Review**: On May 9, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,920 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,893 yuan/ton. The spread and basis changed [33]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is still high as maintenance devices have resumed production. The agricultural demand is in a slack period, and the industrial demand is weak. However, the export growth is fast this year. The cost fluctuates slightly. The fundamentals are loose, but the export policy may support the price in the short - term [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: UR is expected to trade in the range of [1880 - 1930]. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [33].

叠加矿端报价加速下调，锂价维持偏空运行【62000-63700】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 虽然英美谈判有结果、中美贸易谈判有结果，金价或有所调整，不过未来全球 | | | 高位震荡 | 购金力量仍较多，长期看国际秩序下美元信用丧失，去美元化是主力，黄金是 | | | | 未来秩序筹码。长期战略配置价值持续存在【770-810】 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 关税影响各国经济，国内光伏需求有负面影响各国刺激政策将会出台，白银窄 幅震荡。白银品种属性看弹性大，受黄金和基本金属影响较大，操作上延续此 | | | | 前的高位区间思路对待。【8100-8380】 | | 铜 | 逢低试多 | 铜精矿紧张持续，国内库存持续去化，本周交割在即，仓单和持仓对比悬殊，警惕 | | | | 软挤仓风险，短期多单继续持有，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77300，78800】 | | 锌 | 反弹抛空 | 海外锌精矿干扰增加，海内外库存去化，短期锌止跌反弹，但预计上方空间有 | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range. Long - term strategic allocation value persists due to factors like potential de - dollarization and the loss of US dollar credit [1]. - Silver will experience wide - range adjustments. It is supported by potential stimulus policies but is highly elastic and affected by gold and base metals [1]. - Copper is recommended for buying on dips in the short - term, and the long - term outlook remains positive [1]. - Zinc is advised to be sold on rallies. In the long - run, supply is increasing while demand is weak [1]. - Lead and tin prices are likely to face pressure on rebounds [1]. - Aluminum is expected to stabilize, with short - term weakness due to inventory and consumption factors [1]. - Nickel prices will face pressure on rebounds, affected by cost and inventory factors [1]. - Industrial silicon is in a weak position in May, with supply adjustment limited and demand weak [1]. - Lithium carbonate is weak. After a decline in Chile's exports, short positions can be moderately closed, and the price has limited upward momentum [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Gold prices adjusted after the US - UK tariff agreement and potential progress in US - EU negotiations. Silver also showed price fluctuations [2]. - **基本逻辑**: The UK central bank cut interest rates, US employment data was stable, and inflation expectations changed. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains due to trade uncertainties and asset re - allocation [3]. - **策略推荐**: For gold, participate when sentiment stabilizes, and take a long - term long position starting at 780. For silver, adopt a range - trading strategy within [8100, 8380] [4]. Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper rebounded and regained the 78,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **产业逻辑**: Overseas copper mine supply was disrupted, processing fees hit new lows, and domestic production decreased slightly. US copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory continued to decline, with a risk of soft squeeze [5]. - **策略推荐**: Hold short - term long positions. In the long - term, be confident in the upward trend of copper. Short - term Shanghai copper should be monitored in the range [77500, 78800], and LME copper in the range [9200, 9600] dollars per ton [6]. Zinc - **行情回顾**: Zinc continued its weak trend, with a slight rebound [7]. - **产业逻辑**: Although the zinc ore supply is expected to be loose in 2025, recent disruptions occurred. Refined zinc production increased, but downstream demand entered the off - season [7]. - **策略推荐**: With improved market sentiment and increased overseas zinc concentrate interference, zinc rebounded, but the upside is limited. Sell on rallies and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term. Shanghai zinc should be monitored in the range [22000, 22800], and LME zinc in the range [2580, 2650] dollars per ton [8]. Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, while alumina rebounded from a low level [9]. - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, inventory increased, and downstream demand weakened. For alumina, supply was in excess, and cost support decreased [10]. - **策略推荐**: Temporarily observe Shanghai aluminum, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range is [19200 - 20000]. Alumina is expected to operate in a weak range [10]. Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [11]. - **产业逻辑**: The increase in Indonesia's nickel ore royalty supported nickel prices, but domestic inventory was high. Stainless steel inventory removal faced difficulties, and the industry was in an oversupply state [12]. - **策略推荐**: Lightly short - sell nickel and stainless steel on rebounds, focusing on inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 127000] [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2507 hit a new low and then rebounded with reduced losses [13]. - **产业逻辑**: Chile's lithium salt exports decreased in April. In May, supply was sufficient, demand did not increase seasonally, and costs decreased, causing the price to test the 60,000 - yuan mark [14]. - **策略推荐**: Close short positions and observe in the range [63800 - 65200] [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bullish [1] - LPG: Neutral [1] - L: Neutral [1] - PP: Neutral [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - PX: Bullish / px - sc spread arbitrage [1] - PTA/PTA - EG spread arbitrage: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Hold [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Neutral [1] - Methanol: Bearish / ur - ma spread arbitrage [1] - Urea: Bullish [1] - Asphalt: Neutral [1] Core Views - The report analyzes various chemical products, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and investment strategies. For example, crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical factors and OPEC + news; LPG moves with the cost side; PX and PTA show bullish signs due to supply - demand improvements [1][4][22]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Price Movement**: Overnight, WTI rose 3.17%, Brent rose 3.17%, and SC fell 2.98%. The latest prices are WTI at $59.91/barrel, Brent at $62.84/barrel, and SC at $452.2/barrel [3]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC +增产利空释放，中方同意与美方接触，叠加美国制裁伊朗相关企业，油价反弹。供给上，美国制裁相关企业；需求上，EIA预计2025年全球石油需求微增，印度4月燃料需求下降；库存上，美国商业原油库存减少，战略原油储备增加 [4]. - **Strategy**: Long - term, due to factors like the tariff war and OPEC + expansion, the price range is $55 - 65. Short - term, it's bullish but with limited upside. Sell bull spread options. SC focus range is [465 - 480] [5]. LPG - **Price Movement**: On May 8, the PG main contract closed at 4406 yuan/ton, down 0.99% [7]. - **Basic Logic**: Upstream crude oil fluctuates, downstream demand is average. PDH device operating rate drops due to tariff disturbances, and port inventory rises, limiting upward momentum [8]. - **Strategy**: Long - term, it follows crude oil and is bearish. Technically, it's in a range - bound movement. Sell bull spread options. PG focus range is [4380 - 4430] [9]. L - **Price Movement**: L09 (main contract) closed at 7016 yuan/ton, down 0.4% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side, new capacities are put into production, and import windows vary. Demand - side, the agricultural film season is ending. In the long - term, high device production pressure and falling crude oil suggest a short - on - rallies strategy. The focus range is [6970 - 7070] [12]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies, focus on [6970 - 7070] [12]. PP - **Price Movement**: PP09 (main contract) closed at 7029 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [14]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side, new devices are put into operation, and exports are under pressure. In the long - term, high device production pressure and falling crude oil suggest a short - on - rallies strategy. The focus range is [6950 - 7050] [15]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies, focus on [6950 - 7050] [15]. PVC - **Price Movement**: V09 (main contract) closed at 4854 yuan/ton, down 1.8% [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side, new devices are put into production, and inventories are rising. Demand - side, the real - estate completion decline narrows, and downstream operating rates are falling seasonally. Exports may weaken. It's bearish in the short - term, and short - term observation is recommended. The focus range is [4750 - 4860] [17]. - **Strategy**: Short - term participation, focus on [4750 - 4860] [17]. PX - **Price Movement**: On April 30, the PX East China spot price was 6500 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6212 yuan/ton [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX device maintenance eases supply pressure. Demand - side, PTA device maintenance is high. Inventories are high but expected to decline. It's bullish in the short - term or consider expanding the px - sc spread. The focus range is [6350 - 6480] [19]. - **Strategy**: Focus on [6350 - 6480] [20]. PTA - **Price Movement**: On April 30, the PTA East China price was 4560 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4434 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA device maintenance reduces supply pressure. Downstream polyester operating rates are high but expected to decline, and terminal inventories are high. PTA is de - stocking. It's bullish in the short - term or consider expanding the ta - eg spread. The focus range is [4480 - 4590] [22]. - **Strategy**: Focus on [4480 - 4590] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Price Movement**: On April 30, the East China ethylene glycol spot price was 4214 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4155 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance eases supply pressure, but imports are high. Downstream polyester operating rates are high but expected to decline, and terminal inventories are high. It may rebound in the short - term, and short - on - rallies is recommended. The focus range is [4180 - 4250] [25]. - **Strategy**: Focus on [4180 - 4250] [26]. Glass - **Price Movement**: The FG09 contract closed at 1057 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Macro - policies have limited impact on demand. Supply is shrinking, and demand improvement is slow. Inventories are rising, and the market is bearish. The focus range is [1040 - 1070] [29]. - **Strategy**: Focus on [1040 - 1070], with pressure from the 5 - day moving average [29]. Soda Ash - **Price Movement**: The SA09 contract closed at 1323 yuan/ton, unchanged [31]. - **Basic Logic**: After the May Day holiday, some device maintenance plans are implemented, but supply is still high. Demand is weak, and inventories are rising. It's in a range - bound movement. [31]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy mentioned in the provided text. Methanol - **Price Movement**: On April 30, the East China methanol spot price was 2443 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2251 yuan/ton [32]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as previous maintenance devices resume production and imports are expected. Demand is weak, and inventories are rising. Cost support is weak. It's bearish in the short - term. The focus range is [2190 - 2240] [32]. - **Strategy**: Focus on [2190 - 2240] [33]. Urea - **Price Movement**: Not specifically mentioned in the provided text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is high, but fertilizer exports are growing. Inventories are decreasing. It's bullish, but beware of price corrections after export benefits are exhausted. The focus range is [1860 - 1920] [1]. - **Strategy**: Look for low - buying opportunities, focus on [1860 - 1920] [1]. Asphalt - **Price Movement**: Not specifically mentioned in the provided text. - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side crude oil is consolidating, and downstream operating rates are rising. There are both bullish and bearish factors, and it's in a range - bound movement. The focus range is [3420 - 3445] [1]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy mentioned in the provided text.

钢材：供需趋于宽松，偏弱运行 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 相关会议措施对黑色系提振有限，市场情绪消退，市场回归产业逻辑。螺 | | | | 纹表需大幅下降 77 万吨，超过季节性降幅，库存不降反增，供需趋于宽松。 | | 螺纹钢 | 偏弱运行 | 行情大幅增仓下行，市场悲观情况较浓。中期关注高铁水背景下需求季节 | | | | 性回落带来的供需矛盾激化风险，短期关注下方 3000 支撑。【3000，3070】 | | | | 基本面方面，热卷供应小幅增加，需求降幅较大，库存出现上升。出口仍 | | 热卷 | 偏弱运行 | 在高位，但后期有回落风险。宏观消息提振有限，中期延续偏弱运行。【3130， | | | | 3200】 | | | | 基本面看，需求端铁水产量继续增加，后期钢企利润仍支撑铁矿需求维持 | | | | 高位。供给短阶段性发到货双降，铁矿供需结构偏强。后期来看，终端需 | | 铁矿石 | 短线参与 | 求边际转弱，与高铁水的分化矛盾逐渐积累。产业基本面恐承压。单边短 | | | | 线参与，跨期正套持有。【680，71 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bearish consolidation. The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has temporarily ended. Supply is expected to increase gradually, but the continuous short - selling momentum in the market has weakened, and there is a need for consolidation or rebound technically [1][3][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term decline trend is slowing down. Although it continued a small - scale rebound yesterday, it has not reversed the short - term bearish pattern. The supply pressure in the long - term is expected to ease [1][5][8]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bearish. The domestic palm oil has low inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure for now. The inventory accumulation cycle in Southeast Asia has started, and the price center of gravity is moving down [1][9][10]. - **Cotton**: Short - term rebound. The supply side maintains a bearish expectation, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expected improvement in foreign trade, and it is expected to drive a short - term rebound in the market [1][12][13]. - **Red Dates**: Consolidation with a slightly stronger trend. The focus is on the consumption of old dates. After the May Day holiday, the arrival of goods downstream has increased and the transaction has accelerated, which supports the market in the short term [1][14][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Under pressure. The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline marginally [1][16][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **International**: The positive impact of the China - US trade tariff event has ended. South American soybean production is basically determined, and US soybean planting has started. There may be insufficient rainfall in the next 15 days, especially in the Great Lakes region in May [1][3]. - **Domestic**: From May to July, the monthly average import is expected to be over 10 million tons. The supply environment is gradually becoming looser, and the spot and basis of soybean meal have declined. As of May 2, 2025, the port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks, and the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is decreasing [1][3]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, it had a narrow - range consolidation at a low level. The continuous short - selling momentum has weakened, and there is a need for consolidation or rebound technically [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of April 30, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories have increased, and the unexecuted contracts have decreased [8]. - **Supply Outlook**: In the short term, the supply is sufficient due to high inventory and new - season rapeseed harvest. However, from May to July, the rapeseed import is expected to decrease significantly year - on - year, and the long - term supply pressure will ease [1][5][8]. - **Market Performance**: It continued a small - scale rebound yesterday but has not reversed the short - term bearish pattern [1][5][8]. Palm Oil - **Domestic Situation**: Low commercial inventory and low imports, with no supply - side pressure currently. The inventory decreased by 3.23% week - on - week as of May 2, 2025 [1][9][10]. - **International Situation**: Malaysia is expected to have inventory accumulation in April. In May, the production and sales in Southeast Asia are expected to increase, but the export growth rate is expected to be lower than the production growth rate, starting the inventory accumulation cycle [1][9][10]. - **Market Performance**: The domestic palm oil had a short - term decline yesterday but is expected to have a short - term consolidation [1][9][10]. Cotton - **International**: As of May 4, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 21%. The soil moisture has improved, and the supply side maintains a bearish expectation. Brazil's cotton production in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by 0.4% [1][12][13]. - **Domestic**: The 2025 cotton intended planting area is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year, and the output is conservatively estimated at about 7 million tons. The sowing is almost finished, and the weather is favorable for emergence. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the market sentiment has improved due to the expected improvement in foreign trade [1][12][13]. - **Market Performance**: Although the supply - side fundamentals are loose, the market may have a short - term rebound due to improved sentiment [1][12][13]. Red Dates - **Production Area**: Some areas in southern Xinjiang have seen the budding of jujube trees, and the current growth situation is good. The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 0.15% week - on - week but is still higher than the same period [1][14][15]. - **Market**: The market trading atmosphere is light, and the price is stable. After the May Day holiday, the arrival of goods downstream has increased and the transaction has accelerated, and the pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking effect is gradually emerging [1][14][15]. - **Market Performance**: The short - term market support is expected to strengthen, showing a narrow - range consolidation [1][14][15]. Live Pigs - **Short - term**: In April, the slaughterhouse's slaughter progress was slow, the supply rhythm slowed down, and the weight continued to increase slightly. The theoretical growth of commercial pig slaughter volume from April to June 2025 will slow down [16][17][18]. - **Medium - term**: The number of new - born piglets from January to March 2025 increased month - on - month, indicating an increase in slaughter pressure in the third quarter [16][17][18]. - **Long - term**: The inventory of breeding sows in January 2025 decreased slightly month - on - month, increased in February, and is expected to remain above the normal level in March, which may slightly benefit the supply in early next year [16][17][18]. - **Market Performance**: The market fundamentals have not significantly improved, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the post - festival demand is expected to decline marginally [16][17][18].