Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of pre - exporting has resurfaced, and the expectation of supply - demand improvement has pushed up base metals. In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. There are long opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin, and low - buying opportunities in nickel. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply of copper, aluminum, and tin may tighten, so their prices are expected to rise [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions continue to increase, and copper prices remain high. - **Analysis**: The US CPI in December showed certain trends; the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at 0; China's electrolytic copper production increased in December; spot copper had a certain premium; there were strikes at a Chilean copper mine and a delay in the second - phase project of a copper mine in Ecuador. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the Fed may continue to be loose, supporting copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper mine supply is tightening, and refined copper supply is expected to contract. Although demand is currently weak, future supply - demand is expected to be tight. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [8][9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating. - **Analysis**: Alumina prices in different regions showed changes on January 14, and the alumina warehouse receipts increased. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The raw material prices are weak, and the cost support is limited. However, as the valuation is low, price fluctuations may increase. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend [10]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices fluctuate at high levels. - **Analysis**: Aluminum prices and premiums changed on January 14; domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased; the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased; the aluminum ingot premium in Japan rose; China's aluminum exports in December 2025 had a certain growth rate. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the expectation is positive. On the supply side, there are constraints on medium - term supply. On the demand side, high prices suppress demand, and inventory accumulates. - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. In the medium term, the supply - demand may turn to shortage, and the price center may rise [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support continues, and the market fluctuates at high levels. - **Analysis**: The prices of aluminum alloy and related products changed on January 14; an Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production. - **Logic**: Cost support is strong due to tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, and demand may improve marginally. Inventory shows different trends in different types. - **Outlook**: In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are still resilient, and zinc prices fluctuate at high levels. - **Analysis**: Spot zinc premiums in different regions were reported on January 14; zinc inventory decreased slightly; a zinc mine in Australia faced production pressure due to railway damage. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the expectation is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high and volatile, while in the long term, there is a risk of decline. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile [18][19]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the upside space for lead prices is limited. - **Analysis**: The prices of waste electric vehicle batteries and lead ingots changed on January 14; lead inventory increased; lead consumption was weak. - **Logic**: The spot premium increased, the supply increased as smelters resumed production, and the demand was seasonally weak. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to be volatile [20][21]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Policy expectations compete with weak reality, and nickel prices rise again. - **Analysis**: Nickel warehouse receipts and inventory increased on January 14; Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel ore production quota in 2026, and the domestic trade ore price in Indonesia is expected to rise. - **Logic**: The supply pressure remains, demand is in the off - season, and the policy on nickel ore quotas is uncertain. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia [22][23]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Ferronickel prices continue to rise, and the stainless - steel market surges. - **Analysis**: Stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased; spot stainless - steel had a certain premium; ferronickel prices rose; the domestic trade ore price in Indonesia is expected to rise. - **Logic**: Cost support exists, production may increase slightly in January, but demand is weak, and inventory may accumulate. - **Outlook**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia [24]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions continue, and tin prices soar. - **Analysis**: Tin warehouse receipts and positions increased on January 14; the spot tin price rose significantly. - **Logic**: Supply is restricted in multiple areas, such as Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa. Demand is expected to increase due to the economic environment and the development of related industries. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [25][26]. Market Monitoring - Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index was 2809.04, up 1.08%; the industrial products index was 2362.72, up 0.62%; the PPI commodity index was 1466.29, up 0.70%. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on January 14 was 2851.75, with a daily increase of 1.52%, a 5 - day increase of 2.83%, a 1 - month increase of 11.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.17% [152][153].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it indicates that both platinum and palladium are expected to be "oscillating strongly" [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and escalating geopolitical risks, platinum is expected to oscillate strongly. The supply in South Africa faces power - supply and extreme - weather risks, while demand in the platinum market is in a structural expansion phase [1]. - With tariff - expectation disturbances and rising geopolitical risks, palladium is also expected to oscillate strongly. Although the long - term supply - demand for palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts support the price [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum Analysis - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 630.65 yuan/gram, with a 3.67% increase [1]. - The main logic for the strong - oscillation outlook is the resurgence of concerns about the Fed's independence and geopolitical risks, and the uncertainty of the US "233" clause on key minerals. In the future, South Africa's supply risks persist, and the demand in the platinum market is expanding in multiple fields [1]. Palladium Analysis - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 495.5 yuan/gram, with a 1.60% increase [1]. - The market expected a 50% high - tariff on palladium from the US on January 10, which led to a supply shortage in non - US regions. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, short - term spot shortages and Fed's potential rate cuts support the price [1][2]. Index Information - On January 14, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures is not detailed. The special indexes include the Commodity Index (2448.62, +0.96%), Commodity 20 Index (2809.04, +1.08%), Industrial Products Index (2362.72, +0.62%), and PPI Commodity Index (1466.29, +0.70%) [47]. - The non - ferrous metal index on January 14, 2026, had a daily increase of 1.52%, a 5 - day increase of 2.83%, a 1 - month increase of 11.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.17% [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On January 14, equity index futures traded mixed, CGB futures steadied, and most commodities edged higher, with silver, tin, and fuel oil leading the gains [12][13][14] - Against high supply risks and low industrial chain inventories, tin prices are forecast to trend strongly upward; silver is expected to maintain an overall oscillating and upward trend with high volatility; the market logic for high - sulfur fuel oil is complex with both bearish and bullish factors [21][27][33] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - Equity index futures: IM rose 0.1% and IC rose 0.9% [12][14] - CGB futures: TL rose 0.0% and T rose 0.1% [12][14] - Commodity futures: Top gainers were silver (8.0% rise, 3.0% month - on - month open interest increase), tin (8.0% rise, 1.1% month - on - month open interest decrease), and fuel oil (6.1% rise, 7.9% month - on - month open interest increase); top decliners were lithium carbonate (3.5% fall, 1.7% month - on - month open interest decrease), sodium hydroxide (2.3% drop, 11.1% month - on - month open interest increase), and glass (2.1% decline, 1.7% month - on - month open interest increase) [13][14][15] 1.2 Daily Rose 1.2.1 Tin - On January 14, tin rose 8.0% to 413,170 yuan/ton. Supply disruptions in Wa region, Indonesia, and Africa have led to tight ore supply, and low tin concentrate processing fees have restricted refined tin output growth. Meanwhile, demand from semiconductors, PV, and NEVs, along with inventory restocking needs, will drive tin ingot demand growth. Overall, tin prices are expected to trend strongly upward [18][20][21] 1.2.2 Silver - On January 14, silver rose 8.0% to 22,763 yuan/kg. In a high - volatility environment, financial attributes dominate short - term pricing. Inflation decline has supported silver's financial attributes, and speculative capital participation has amplified price elasticity. After the digestion of index weight adjustment disruptions, silver is expected to maintain an overall oscillating and upward trend, with high volatility potentially persisting [24][25][27] 1.2.3 Fuel Oil - On January 14, fuel oil rose 6.1% to 2586 yuan/ton. The OPEC+ group will suspend production hikes in Q1, and Venezuela's oil transfer to the US will increase heavy oil supply, pressuring high - sulfur fuel oil in the medium - to - long - term. Iran's gas supply suspension to Iraq may lead to Iraq resuming fuel oil - fired power generation. High floating storage in the Asia - Pacific and the replacement of fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East are bearish factors. However, the widening asphalt - fuel oil spread may boost fuel oil processing demand [31][32][33] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The US relaxed regulatory rules on exports of NVIDIA H200 chips to China on January 13 local time, with sales subject to US Department of Commerce review and security screening, and fees will be collected from relevant transactions [36][38] - China's total goods trade import and export value in 2025 reached RMB 45.47 trillion, up 3.8% year - on - year, maintaining growth for 9 consecutive years. Exports were RMB 26.99 trillion, up 6.1% year - on - year, and imports were RMB 18.48 trillion, up 0.5% year - on - year, keeping China as the world's second - largest import market for 17 straight years [37][38] 2.2 Industry News - Approved by the CSRC, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges raised the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100% [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude - tanker market in 2025 was strong but recently had a sharp correction. The Middle - East–Far East TD3C route's daily rent averaged $57,500, up 64.7% YoY, and seaborne crude demand grew solidly. The supply of the tanker fleet was tight, and sanctions and floating storage were short - term swing factors. The global crude - tanker capacity rose only 0.7%. Mid - term supply is expected to remain tight, with sanctions and storage adding near - term tension. The Venezuelan affair is a short - term negative, but geopolitical risk premium underpins freight fundamentals [1][3]. - The 2026 outlook for the crude - tanker market is volatile but still tilted to the upside. Although freight rates have corrected sharply, global liftings should rebound after the Middle - East Ramadan, and tonnage scarcity due to sanctions will persist. Geopolitical flare - ups can increase market volatility [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The crude - tanker market soared in 2025H2 and then quickly retreated. The average annual daily hire rate still showed a sharp year - on - year increase. Since September 2025, the market was exceptionally strong, with daily rates peaking at $141,300/day. In 2025, the average VLCC daily charter rate on the Middle East–Far East TD3C route reached $57,491, up 64.7% year - on - year. Since Q4, the market was robust but has fallen rapidly lately. In early January, the VLCC downtrend continued, sliding 36.5% week - on - week, and Suezmax and Aframax rates also turned lower [9][34]. 3.2 Demand - Seaborne crude demand in 2026 is expected to be slightly stronger than in 2025, with global volumes reaching a high - level plateau. In 2025, global crude shipped by sea reached 2.17 billion tonnes, up 4.2% year - on - year. OPEC+ indicated that Q1 2026 output will be flat. The Ukraine conflict has had a limited net impact on Russian crude exports. South American shipments grew 6.1% in 2025, while North America and Africa had modest gains. China's crude - import demand picked up in H2 2025 [12][37]. - Venezuelan exports may face short - term disruptions. In the first eleven months of 2025, Venezuela's crude output stood at 0.93 mb/d, about 0.9% of global supply. Average seaborne exports in 2025 were roughly 0.75 mb/d, equal to 1.7% of world crude trade. China and the US are the main destinations, taking about 50% and 15% respectively. Since Q4 2025, the US has tightened sanctions on Venezuelan oil [13][37]. 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Fleet Growth and Aging - In 2025, the global crude - tanker fleet grew only 0.7%, and the average age of VLCC reached 13.29 years old. Owners are cautious about ordering new ships due to the net - zero timetable. There are currently 909 VLCCs, totaling 280 million dwt, with 156 on order (17.2% of existing capacity), but near - term deliveries are limited. About one - third of VLCC tonnage is over 15 years old, and the average age will keep rising, reducing fleet productivity [14][38]. 3.3.2 Sanctioned Tanker Fleet and Floating - Storage Tonnage - The share of sanctioned tonnage is approaching 20%. In 2025, the US and EU tightened measures on ships carrying Russian, Venezuelan, or Iranian oil. As of 15 Dec 2025, 1,746 ships were on sanctions lists, with tankers being the dominant segment. The US has shifted from corporate to individual/entity designations, making penalties more precise [18][40]. - Floating storage has fluctuated. A build - up in October lifted spot rates in November, but the total has since fallen back. The global floating - storage count peaked around Week 50, declined into year - end, and edged up again in early January. Far - East floating stocks remain elevated, but the support to freight from stored barrels is waning. Part of Venezuela's output is held afloat, and floating - storage levels should be closely watched in 2026. If crude prices retreat, more tankers could be used for storage, boosting freight rates [19][20][40]. 3.3.3 Ship Speed and Canal Transit - The fleet sailed faster in Q4. The average VLCC speed reached 11.86 kn in December, rising steadily since mid - year, while Aframax speed averaged 10.82 kn, remaining flat. Higher rates encouraged owners to turn ships faster, releasing extra supply, but speeds have edged back recently [23][45]. - Ship volumes passing through the Suez Canal remain low, while Panama Canal traffic is normal. In 2025, the Panama Canal had an average of 85 tanker transits (8.92 million dwt) per month, back to 2023 levels but below 2022. Crude - tanker passages in the Suez Canal totaled 1,950 ships in 2025, down 9.7% vs 2024 and 35.1% vs 2023. If tankers return to the Suez Canal in 2026, it could weigh on freight and cut overall tonne - mile demand [24][45]. 3.4 Venezuela Situation 3.4.1 Shipping Pattern - Venezuelan exports are mainly transported by VLCCs, and 120 tankers regularly call at the country's ports. State - owned PDVSA is the major exporter, shipping from the northern and eastern terminals. These 120 vessels represent 6.3% of the world VLCC fleet, 1.0% of Suezmaxes, 2.0% of Aframaxes, and 2.6% of Panamaxes. Most cargoes go to the Far East, so VLCCs dominate the trade [25][26][46]. 3.4.2 Market Impact - The tanker market will suffer in the short term, but there is uncertainty about the floating capacity and volume. The immediate fall in Venezuelan liftings cuts long - haul VLCC demand, which is a short - term negative. Replacement barrels will come from the Middle East, West Africa, or South America, slightly shortening average hauls. However, the effective shortage of tonnage due to sanctions remains, and the market's risk premium and tight supply fundamentals are intact [30][49]. 3.5 Outlook - Seaborne crude demand is expected to grow steadily. In 2026, global volumes should remain at a high level. OPEC+ output is flat in the near term, and Russian flows are only marginally affected. West - African and North - American liftings have eased seasonally, causing a short lull. The pace of Venezuela's crude/fuel - oil comeback is unclear. High onshore stocks in China and a weaker products crack are slowing import appetite, leading to less spot cargo and downward pressure on freight. Global seaborne - crude growth in 2026 is projected at 1–2%. - Supply is likely to stay tight. The share of sanctioned tonnage is rising, floating storage is increasing, and Ukraine has stepped up strikes on Russian tankers. Fleet growth is minimal, and ageing is reducing operating efficiency. Even if the Russia–Ukraine war ends in 2026, trade - flow shifts will largely persist. A sharper oil - price retreat would increase storage demand and tighten tanker availability further. - In summary, the market will dip in the near term, but 2026 fundamentals remain strong. The Venezuelan affair has reduced long - haul VLCC demand for now, but the timing of volume rebound and its impact on floating storage are uncertain, leaving a geopolitical risk premium. The crude - tanker market is expected to regain strength around March after the current correction [31][32][50].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 | 2026-01-13 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 年度涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 殷指 | 炉深300用货 | 4758. 6 | -0. 53 | 0. 31 | 3. 45 | 3.45 | 3.45 | | | 上证50期货 | 3137. 6 | -0. 27 | 0.09 | 3.72 | 3.72 | 3.72 | | | 中证500期货 | 8131.2 | -1. 32 | 1.16 | 10. 44 | 10. 44 | 10. 44 | | | 中证1000期货 | 8160. 4 | -1. 87 | 1.39 | 9.74 | ...

原油价格于1月13日晚间大幅走高，此前美国加大对伊朗施压，同时 在俄罗斯黑海沿岸一个对于哈萨克斯坦原油至关重要的装运码头附近有油 轮遭到袭击。美国总统特朗普宣布，对与伊朗"做生意"的国家的商品加 征25%关税，并且不排除对这个波斯湾国家实施军事打击。期权市场也显 示出油价可能飙升的风险，交易员对看涨合约要求的溢价，已达到自以色 列和美国2025年对伊朗发动空袭以来的最高水平。伊朗和俄罗斯的地缘因 素是近期原油市场的主要关注点。 板块逻辑： 化工与原油的节奏略有不同，估值修复导致此轮化工反弹先于原油。 随着化工品利润的修复，后期需要关注装置开工率的提升情况，以PTA和 苯乙烯为例，当前产业中大部分装置都实现盈利。塑料期价持续反弹，本 周以来塑料的基差也由负转正，产业链的下游和终端都在积极补库；进口 套利窗口打开后，美金货源也报价走高，而当前美金低价货源有限。下游 需求淡季逐步来临，但并没有超越季节性的利空，塑料可能会延续震荡格 局。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 原油：地缘持续扰动，关注伊朗风险 沥青：沥青期价处于高估区间震荡 高硫燃油：委内瑞拉重油施压，燃油期价震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价震 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 12⽉美国核⼼通胀低于预期，实际利率下⾏环境延续；与此同时，围绕美 联储独⽴性的政治与司法不确定性反复发酵，美元信⽤与政策可信度再度 成为市场定价核⼼变量，贵⾦属在宏观与制度两条逻辑⽀撑下维持强势。 重点资讯： 1）全球央行集体表态力挺 杰罗姆·鲍威尔，欧洲央行、英国央行、 加拿大央行等罕见联合发声强调央行独立性是金融稳定基石，凸显市 场对美联储货币自主权被削弱的系统性担忧快速升温。 2）伊朗国内抗议升级为高烈度人道风险事件，人权组织估计死亡人 数或达数千人并警告大规模法外处决风险，进一步放大中东地区政治 与安全不确定性。 3）在美国持续加压背景下伊朗释放被扣油轮迹象显现，一艘两年前 扣押的油轮现身阿曼近海，显示地缘博弈边际缓和但能源通道与制裁 风险仍具反复性。 价格逻辑： 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-14 美国核⼼通胀不及预期，⾦银延续强势 研究员： 黄金：通胀回落提供基本面缓冲，制度不确定性抬升风险溢价。12月 美国核心CPI环比0.2%，同比2.6%，持平四年低位，显示通胀趋势继 续降温。在通胀约束边际缓解的同时，市场对美联储独立性与未来利 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the industry is mainly in an oscillatory operation. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, and the spot price of coke has started to rise. However, in January, coal mines resumed production, and Mongolian coal imports rebounded to a high level, so the high - supply pressure still exists, and the futures prices have corrected from high levels. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking expectations support the iron ore price, but high inventory restricts the upward space. In the off - season, demand has seasonally weakened. With the gradual resumption of production by steel mills, the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end has become more obvious, and fundamental contradictions have begun to gradually accumulate, suppressing the valuation of the steel futures market. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and there are expected disturbances on the supply side. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both the supply and demand sides need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot price has weakened, but the futures market still shows resilience. Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and arrivals are expected to remain at a high level. The demand side has a mixed situation of blast furnace maintenance and resumption, and the inventory pressure is still accumulating [1][7]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventories are relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Recently, leading steel enterprises in East China announced a price increase of 50 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the spot price will follow the increase [1][8]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive the entry of spot - futures and speculative demand for procurement, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: As the New Year approaches, the winter restocking intensity gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be alleviated, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The pattern of loose supply and demand of manganese silicon continues, the upstream has great pressure to destock, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling pressure from hedging. In the medium term, the futures price is still expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: Currently, the supply and demand of the silicon iron market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, it is expected that the futures price will follow the sector [2]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expected disturbances in the supply, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in oversupply. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2][14]. 5. Steel - The cost provides support, but the inventory suppresses. The futures market oscillates. The spot market trading is weak, and the demand has seasonally weakened. The overall steel inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and fundamental contradictions have begun to gradually accumulate [7]. 6. Indexes - **Comprehensive Index**: On January 13, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2425.27, down 0.30%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.12, down 0.28%; the industrial product index was 2348.14, down 0.52% [106]. - **Steel Industry Chain Index**: On January 13, 2026, the steel industry chain index was 2024.77, with a daily decline of 0.75%, a decline of 0.72% in the past 5 days, an increase of 6.09% in the past month, and an increase of 2.47% since the beginning of the year [108].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [7]. - The investment rating for stock index options is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [7]. - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "oscillating" [8]. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures: The end of the 17 - day consecutive rise is due to capital release, but the mid - term optimistic logic remains unchanged. Short - term profit - taking pressure increases, but such corrections are normal capital release during the upward trend. The logic of betting on policy expectations and industrial prosperity before the Two Sessions continues, with a focus on IC long positions and双创ETF [1][7]. - Stock index options: Market sentiment cools slightly under market rotation. The trading volume of the options market decreases slightly, and the implied volatility of most varieties drops slightly. The strategy of buying call options on previously high - heat varieties during corrections can be changed to a bull spread combination [2][7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market continues to recover, but attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. The capital side shows a slight convergence, and the short - end may be affected by the capital side. The adjustment of the stock market may drive the long - end bond market, and institutional allocation motivation may support the bond market [3][8][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - Market performance: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index ended its 17 - day consecutive rise with a decline, and trading volume reached a new high. The basis, inter - period spread, and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed [1][7]. - Logic: Short - term profit - taking pressure comes from historical patterns, abnormal trading inquiries, and contract premiums. However, the mid - term trading logic remains intact, with sector rotation [1][7]. - Operation suggestions: Allocate IC long positions and双创ETF [7]. Stock Index Options - Market performance: The underlying market took a high - level rest on Tuesday. The overall trading volume of the options market decreased slightly, and trading heat shifted to 50 and 300. The implied volatility of most varieties declined slightly [2][7]. - Logic: Market sentiment cooled under capital rotation, and relevant indicator changes were opposite to those on Monday [2][7]. - Operation suggestions: Hold bull spread positions [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. T, TF, TS, and TL had different changes in trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and had a net capital withdrawal [8][9]. - Logic: The short - end TS was relatively weak. The approaching tax period may cause capital side fluctuations, and the stock market adjustment may drive the bond market, especially the long - end. Institutional allocation motivation may support the bond market [3][8][10]. - Operation suggestions: Trend strategy is to oscillate. Hedging strategy is to pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy is basis oscillation. Curve strategy is to consider taking profits on short - term curve steepening [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On January 13, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 605.05 yuan/gram, with a decline of -3.2%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 483.25 yuan/gram, with a decline of -5.22% [3] - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate widely but trend upward. The supply in South Africa faces risks, while the demand in the platinum market is expanding, and the "rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase price elasticity [3] - Affected by tariff expectations and geopolitical risks, palladium prices are expected to fluctuate widely but trend upward. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support the price [3][4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Platinum Analysis - The main logic is that concerns about the Fed's independence and geopolitical risks have flared up again, and the "233" clause of the US Department of Commerce on critical minerals has no further news. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to wait for price stabilization and then consider low - buying opportunities [3] - In terms of supply, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. In terms of demand, the platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment [3] - The outlook is that platinum prices are expected to fluctuate upward due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro - expectations [3] Palladium Analysis - The main logic is that the market expected the US to impose a 50% high - tariff on palladium on January 10. Palladium is being shipped to the US, intensifying non - US supply shortages. The policy has not been implemented yet, and short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to trade cautiously and wait for price stabilization to consider low - buying opportunities [3] - In terms of demand, palladium shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support the price [3] - The outlook is that palladium prices are expected to fluctuate upward due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment [4] Commodity Index - On January 13, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2425.27, down - 0.30%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.12, down - 0.28%; the industrial products index was 2348.14, down - 0.52% [50] Non - ferrous Metals Index - On January 13, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2809.16, with a daily decline of -1.33%, a 5 - day decline of -1.30%, a 1 - month increase of +8.87%, and a year - to - date increase of +4.59% [52]