Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - On February 25, 2026, the platinum and palladium prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose significantly. The platinum main contract rose 7.03% to 586.0 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract rose 4.50% to 457.95 yuan/gram. The uncertainty of US tariffs and the unclear situation in the US-Iran relationship led to the continuous fermentation of market risk - aversion sentiment, driving up the prices of platinum and palladium [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Platinum - **Main Logic**: The US Supreme Court's ruling on February 20 that the US President has no authority to impose large - scale tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, along with the escalating US - Iran tensions, has increased market risk - aversion sentiment. Zimbabwe's suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports may increase short - term supply concerns, further boosting platinum prices. However, since Zimbabwe mainly exports platinum and palladium in unforged or semi - manufactured forms rather than raw ore, the policy is expected to have little impact on the actual supply of platinum - group metals. In the long run, the US is still in an interest - rate cutting cycle, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit due to the damage to the Fed's independence and the loosening of the global political and economic order is conducive to the long - term release of platinum price elasticity [4]. - **Outlook**: The price of platinum is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium and long term, considering the healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro expectations [4]. Palladium - **Main Logic**: There is continuous uncertainty on the supply side of palladium. On February 10, the US Department of Commerce issued a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on unforged palladium imported from Russia, with a tariff rate of 132.83%. The market's expectation of palladium tariffs has resurfaced, and Europe is also considering a new round of sanctions on Russian - produced palladium. The supply disruption continues, and the tight spot market supports the price. On the demand side, palladium still faces structural pressure. In general, although the long - term supply and demand is expected to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's interest - rate cutting expectation provide clear support for the price [5]. - **Outlook**: The price of palladium is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium and long term, due to the spot shortage and the improvement of the macro - environment [5]. Index Information - **Special Indexes**: On February 25, 2026, the commodity index was 2431.43, up 0.56%; the commodity 20 index was 2783.62, up 0.64%; the industrial products index was 2314.55, up 0.63% [52]. - **Sector Index - Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On February 25, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2710.08. The daily increase was 0.54%, the increase in the past 5 days was 0.57%, the decrease in the past month was 2.99%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 0.90% [54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - In the short - term, with supply tightening, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, with an estimated price range of 360,000 - 500,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to focus on the low - buying and long - position strategy. - In the medium - term, if the resumption and new production in major producing areas go smoothly, tin supply and demand may ease slightly but remain in a tight - balance state, with high supply risks and high - level price fluctuations. - In the long - term, with limited growth in ore supply and strong demand, the tin price center is expected to show an upward trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On February 25, 2026, tin prices rose significantly. By noon, the main contract of Shanghai tin futures rose 6.09% to 4,102.07 yuan per ton. The reasons are supply concerns and positive market sentiment. - Indonesia is studying a ban on the export of various raw materials including tin in the coming years, which intensifies long - term supply concerns. - In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the security situation in the east is severe, and local tin ore supply is at risk of disruption [3]. Fundamental Situation - The domestic tin ore supply is tight, which restricts refined tin production. As of February 13, the processing fees for 60% and 40% grade tin ores are 10,000 yuan/ton and 14,000 yuan/ton respectively, remaining at a relatively low level. - In January, domestic refined tin production was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.74%. The operating rate of domestic tin smelters was 56.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points. - Recently, the visible tin inventory has increased. As of February 23, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory was 11,781 tons, and the LME tin inventory was 7,655 tons [4].

信期货有限公司 IC Futures Company Limited 2026年02月24日 铝产业链日度数据跟踪 一、氧化铝 (1) 据我的钢铁网,2月24日国产矿价格为491元/吨,环比0元/吨; 24日几内亚进口矿价格61美元/干吨,环比0美元/干吨; (2) 据我的钢铁网,2月24日现货价格指数为2647元/吨,环比+1元/吨。 (3) 据上期所,2月24日期货库存为327928吨,环比+18053吨。 图表 2: 几内亚铝土矿价格 美元/吨 2026 -- 2025 -- 2024 -- 2023 120 110 100 02 01/30 02/27 03/26 04/24 05/25 06/22 07/20 08/17 09/14 10/19 11/16 图表 5:氧化铝-仓单库存 世 2026 - 2025 -- 2024 350000 F 300000 250000 2000000 150000 1000000 50000 01/02 01/31 03/03 04/08 05/16 06/20 07/24 08/27 09/28 11/03 12/02 12/31 图表 3:氧化铝现货汇总均价 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report's outlook is for a volatile market, suggesting to pay attention to going long on Contracts 05 and 06 on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - Against the backdrop of potential deterioration in the Middle East geopolitical situation during the holiday, an adjustment in US tariff policies with a certain reduction in the actual implementation rate, and the EU's decision to extend the Red Sea escort plan, the sentiment side provides some support to the market. The spot price has not shown obvious signs of decline, and the futures market has increased positions to repair the discount [2] - The market is still trading around the near - month contracts, with a significant increase in positions in Contract 04. In the short term, attention should be paid to the risks of MSK's cabin opening, geopolitical sentiment fluctuations, and the rush actions of the photovoltaic industry chain; in the medium term, attention should be paid to the support of spot - end cargo volume and whether shipping companies issue price increase notices [4] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - The SCFIS European line index has had a slow decline for two consecutive periods. The main contract 04 reached a maximum of 1397 points, with a gain of 6.8% and an increase of over 8000 lots in positions. As of the close, the open interest rose to 34,500 lots. Contract 05 closed at 1479 points, up 12.6%, with an increase of 122 lots in positions. Contract 06 closed at 1691.6 points, up 6.1%, with an increase of 1897 lots in positions, and the open interest rose to 15,800 lots [2] Spot Market Freight Rates - As of 16:00, according to Geek Rate online freight rates, MSK's early - March price rose to $1950/FEU after the cabin opening, remaining the same as the previous day. HPL's Shanghai - Rotterdam freight rate in late February was $2035/FEU, and the March price was $3135/FEU. Ocean carriers' 3 - month freight rates varied, with OOCL at $3030 - 3130/FEU, CMA's first - half - month March freight rate in the range of $2293 - 2493/FEU and the second - half - month rate dropping from a high of $3993/FEU to $2793/FEU, EMC at $3030 - 3130/FEU, ONE at $3035/FEU, and MSC's March price at $2340/FEU, a $200 increase compared to February [3] Geopolitical Situation - Trump signaled a缓和 in the US - Iran situation, preferring an agreement over war. Netanyahu of Israel threatened Iran, saying that if Iran attacks Israel due to US military strikes, it will face "unimaginable" retaliation [3] Trade Situation - The US has stopped collecting certain tariffs but imposed a 10% import surcharge under Section 122. China is closely monitoring and will comprehensively evaluate US measures, and will decide on counter - measures against US fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs. China opposes unilateral tariff measures and hopes to conduct candid consultations with the US in the upcoming 6th round of China - US economic and trade consultations [4] Red Sea Navigation Situation - The EU announced on the 23rd that it would extend the Red Sea escort operation for one year until February 28, 2027, to maintain "freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and surrounding waters" [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the view that the cotton price will move upward in the medium to long term and fluctuate strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips. The core drivers are the tight balance of China's cotton supply - demand structure in the 25/26 season and the possible decline in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Performance - Today, Zhengzhou cotton opened high and moved higher. The main contract added more than 90,000 lots, breaking through the 15,000 yuan/ton mark and the previous high in early January, closing at 15,285 yuan/ton [2]. Market Review - **Macro - level**: The tariff reduction boosted the commodity market atmosphere. The US Supreme Court ruled that the large - scale tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the "International Emergency Economic Powers Act" (IEEPA) were invalid. Trump announced a new 10% global temporary tariff starting from February 24, 2026 (valid for 150 days), and then raised it to 15%. The 20% tariff imposed on China by the US since last year has dropped to 15% [2]. - **Industry - level**: The first forecast report of the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum for the 26/27 season is positive. Globally, the total cotton production is expected to decrease by 3.2% year - on - year, consumption to increase by 1.2%, ending stocks to decrease by 5.2%, and the stock - to - consumption ratio to decline by 6.3%. In the US, the cotton planting area is expected to increase by 1.3% year - on - year, the harvested area to decrease by 2.2%, and the total production to decrease by 2.3%. Consumption remains flat, exports increase by 1.7%, ending stocks decrease by 4.5%, and the stock - to - consumption ratio declines by 6.2%. A decline in the US cotton stock - to - consumption ratio will drive up the medium - to - long - term price center [3]. Outlook for the Future - In the medium to long term, the cotton price is expected to rise. However, in the short term, whether the upward trend continues or slows depends on other factors. The current low price of the external market and the widening internal - external price difference limit the upside of the domestic market. Attention should be paid to the USDA's cotton planting intention report at the end of March, weather conditions, the "Golden March and Silver April" demand season after the Spring Festival, and the Xinjiang target price subsidy policy [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic commodity futures markets closed mostly higher, with precious metals leading the gains [1]. - Domestic macroeconomic situation shows a differentiated performance during the Spring Festival, with strong travel and consumption but weak real - estate sales. The start of social financing in January was stable, with government financing being strong and private financing in line with expectations [13]. - Overseas, the US economy shows a slowdown in overall expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter slowed down significantly, with personal consumption being the main drag, and inflation stickiness still exists [13]. - In the short - term, overseas economy may suppress base metals, but copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel with tight supply are expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. Tariff disturbances may support the prices of gold and silver. A - shares are expected to continue a mild upward trend, while crude oil, black commodities, and the domestic bond market should be treated with an oscillating mindset [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On February 24, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4683.4, with a daily increase of 1.06%, a weekly increase of 1.22%, a monthly decrease of 0.59%, a quarterly increase of 1.82%, and an annual increase of 1.82%. Other stock index futures also had different degrees of fluctuations [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures all had certain price increases and fluctuations in different time periods [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 97.7425, with a monthly increase of 0.65% and an annual decrease of 0.54%. The US dollar middle - price had a significant decline [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased by 23.34bp, and the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield increased by 1.24bp [2]. 3.2 Fluctuations of Popular Industries - On February 24, 2026, industries such as non - ferrous metals, building materials, and petroleum and petrochemicals had relatively large daily and quarterly increases, while industries such as consumer services, computer, and non - bank finance had declines [5]. 3.3 Fluctuations of Overseas Commodities - On February 23, 2026, precious metals such as COMEX gold and silver had significant increases, while energy products such as NYMEX natural gas had significant declines [8]. 3.4 Fluctuations of Domestic Commodities - On February 24, 2026, products such as crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and silver had relatively large daily increases, while products such as iron ore, coke, and coking coal had declines [11]. 3.5 Macro Summary - **Domestic Macro**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption were strong, but real - estate sales were weak. Social financing in January started stably, with government financing being strong and private financing in line with expectations [13]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy shows a slowdown in overall expansion and structural differentiation. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter slowed down, and inflation stickiness still exists [13]. - **Large - scale Assets**: Short - term overseas economy may suppress base metals, but copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel with tight supply are expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. Tariff disturbances may support the prices of gold and silver. A - shares are expected to continue a mild upward trend, while crude oil, black commodities, and the domestic bond market should be treated with an oscillating mindset [13]. 3.6 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: After the Spring Festival, stocks and bonds both rose. Stock index futures are expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillating manner, stock index options are expected to oscillate, and treasury bond futures are also expected to oscillate [14]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillating manner due to positive impacts of tariff policy changes [14]. - **Shipping**: The spot price of container shipping to Europe is expected to oscillate, and steel and iron ore prices are also expected to oscillate [14]. - **Black Building Materials**: The real - world situation and expectations are not good, and the prices of products such as coke, coking coal, and glass are expected to oscillate [14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Base metals are expected to oscillate and sort out. Products such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillating manner [14]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Due to the tense relationship between the US and Iran, oil prices are boosted. Products such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt are expected to oscillate [16]. - **Agriculture**: After the Spring Festival, most agricultural products rose on the first day. Products such as natural rubber, cotton, and corn are expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillating manner, while products such as pigs and sugar are expected to be weaker in an oscillating manner [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is continuously disturbed by the progress of the US - Iran negotiations, and the price of crude oil is oscillating strongly. The chemical industry has a good start after the Spring Festival. Although there is inventory accumulation, it may continue the oscillating pattern. The overall outlook is that the crude oil will maintain high volatility, and the chemical prices will continue to oscillate and consolidate [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: API crude oil has a large inventory build - up, and the US - Iran geopolitical situation continuously disturbs the market. The supply is expected to be loose this year, but the geopolitical premium is significant. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [2][7]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price rises, and the asphalt futures price goes up. The long - term supply of raw materials is expected to be abundant, and the current price is over - valued. It is expected to oscillate, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline [6][7]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price still has a high geopolitical premium. The increase in Venezuelan oil production is expected to put long - term pressure on it. It is expected to oscillate, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [8]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate upwards. Although it faces some negative factors, its current valuation is low. It is expected to oscillate and follow the crude oil fluctuations [9]. - **PX**: The cost boost and the warm commodity sentiment resonate, and the price center moves up. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the mid - term logic of buying on dips remains [10]. - **PTA**: Supported by cost and tariff policies, it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of the polyester industry. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: After the festival, it makes up for the price increase. The fundamentals in Q1 are better than those in Q4, but the inventory pressure is still large. It is expected to oscillate [12][13]. - **Styrene**: After the festival, it makes up for the price increase. The seasonal inventory build - up height in February is adjusted downwards, but the support strength declines. It is expected to oscillate [14][15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price rebound is limited due to supply - demand pressure, and the support below is enhanced. It is expected to maintain range consolidation in the short - term [16][18]. - **Short - fiber**: Supported by cost and tariff reduction, it is beneficial for export. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [18][19]. - **Bottle Chip**: The cost boost is obvious. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the support for processing fees below is enhanced [20]. - **Methanol**: After the festival, the overseas geopolitical disturbance continues, and it oscillates widely. It is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress between the US and Iran [22][23]. - **Urea**: Driven by post - festival demand, it oscillates strongly. Although there is upward momentum, the upward space is limited [24]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The geopolitical disturbance boosts the sentiment, and it rebounds slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [28]. - **PP**: The basis is weak, and the futures price follows the crude oil to rebound slightly in the short - term. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [29]. - **PL**: Supported by the spot and the rising oil price, it rebounds. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [30]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance still exists, and it may oscillate. The high inventory forms a suppression, and the market sentiment is supported by the geopolitical disturbance and the spring inspection expectation [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectation, it oscillates. The high inventory suppresses, but the spring inspection and downstream restocking support it [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each variety [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of each variety also have corresponding changes, which can reflect the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the inventory situation to a certain extent [35]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. have changed, which can help analyze the relative price relationships between different varieties [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific monitoring data and analysis content are provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the commodity index all show different degrees of increase, reflecting the overall upward trend of the market [275][276].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-2-25 节后首日板块品种多上涨为主 油脂：外盘提振，油脂补涨 蛋白粕：节后首日交投清淡，盘面延续震荡 玉米：下游补库，玉米增仓上行 生猪：节后淡季，猪价下跌 天然橡胶：看涨情绪进一步放大，胶价迎来开门红 合成橡胶：市场情绪偏暖维持 棉花：宏观和供需预期利好共振，郑棉增仓上涨 白糖：印度食糖产量预期下调，节内外盘上涨，糖价中长期仍偏弱震荡 纸浆：偏暖金融市场氛围带动纸浆上涨 双胶纸：供需矛盾不突出，双胶窄幅震荡 原木：外盘提涨，内盘底部有支撑 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 天然橡㬵观点：看涨情绪进⼀步放⼤，㬵价迎来开⻔红 逻辑：天胶两品种昨日均大涨接近4%，除了市场氛围依旧向好，我们认为 昨日泰国公布的1月份天胶出口数据进一步放大了当前市场看涨情绪。由 于该降幅略超市场前期预期，所以该数据为盘面提供了较强的上涨推动。 不过需要看到的实际情况是，由于1月出口数据主要反映的是10-11月的产 出情况，而去年这段时间内泰国天气问题的确导致了阶段性的小幅减产， 并且由于12月存在年底集中发货的情况， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: After the holiday, the market opened higher with a prominent dumbbell structure. The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher on the first trading day after the holiday and closed up. On the dividend end, sectors such as oil and gas, coal, and shipping led the gains, pricing in the impact of the US - Iran conflict on oil prices. On the small - cap end, theme concepts rotated with an unclear main line, and the small - cap style was stronger than the large - cap style. Some core themes like film, tourism, liquor, and duty - free sectors declined due to profit - taking after holiday consumption. AI applications and computing power were weak, affected by the overnight decline of US tech stocks. With the recovery of A - share trading volume after the holiday, sufficient liquidity, and the消退 of commodity linkage risks, the policy call option before the Two Sessions remains valid, and IM long positions are recommended [1][7]. - **Stock Index Options**: After the holiday, there was a significant decline in volatility. On the first trading day after the holiday, the market maintained an overall optimistic sentiment. The trading volume in the options market decreased slightly compared with before the holiday, and the overall trading willingness was not high. The buying - option defense strategy can be gradually closed, and the covered - call strategy can be adopted as the medium - term main line considering the possible end of the "spring rally" [2][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The impact of holiday news on the bond market was limited, and the bond market closed up. Although the central bank conducted a net reverse - repurchase withdrawal of over 90 billion yuan on the first working day after the holiday and the funds tightened slightly, the bond market sentiment was still positive. The holiday news had limited impact on the bond market, the fundamental environment was still favorable for the bond market, and the risk - preference recovery in the stock market had limited impact on the bond market. The bond market sentiment continued to recover, and the motivation for long - position increases strengthened. In the short term, the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [3][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Hold IM long positions. The risk factors include profit - taking pressure and lower - than - expected counter - cyclical policy intensity [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Adopt the covered - call strategy. The risk factor is the unexpectedly high liquidity in the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: For trend strategies, be cautious about the bond market; for hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, pay attention to long - basis opportunities for ultra - long - term bonds; for curve strategies, pay attention to the convergence opportunity of the 30Y - 10Y spread; for inter - period roll - over, note the downward momentum of the inter - period spread and the changes in the roll - over window period due to the Spring Festival. The risk factors include unexpected supply, unexpectedly high stock market rise, and less - than - expected monetary policy [8][9]. 3.2 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not detailed in the provided content. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content.

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Due to increased uncertainties in tariffs and geopolitics during the Spring Festival holiday, as of February 24, 2026, the platinum and palladium prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange significantly increased, with the platinum main - contract rising 5.54% to 551.85 yuan/gram and the palladium main - contract rising 4.57% to 438.45 yuan/gram. The prices of platinum and palladium strengthened along with the precious metals sector [2]. - For platinum, in the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish due to the US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs and the ongoing tense situation between the US and Iran. In the long - term, the US is in an interest - rate cut cycle, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit is conducive to the release of price elasticity. Also, although the supply shortage has marginally eased, risks still support the price. The overall outlook is volatile and bullish [3]. - For palladium, there are continuous uncertainties in the supply side. The US's anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Russian palladium and potential European sanctions have led to supply disruptions, supporting the price. On the demand side, there is still structural pressure. In the short - term, the shortage of spot and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts provide clear support for the price. The outlook is also volatile and bullish [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - **Price Movement**: As of February 24, 2026, the platinum main - contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 5.54% to 551.85 yuan/gram [2]. - **Main Logic**: The US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs and the tense US - Iran situation make the short - term price volatile and bullish. The long - term weakening of the US dollar's credit and existing supply risks support the price [3]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish, with a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations [3]. Palladium - **Price Movement**: As of February 24, 2026, the palladium main - contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 4.57% to 438.45 yuan/gram [2]. - **Main Logic**: Supply - side uncertainties include the US's anti - dumping ruling on Russian palladium and potential European sanctions. There is structural pressure on the demand side. In the short - term, spot shortage and Fed interest - rate cut expectations support the price [4]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and bullish, with spot shortage and an improving macro environment [4]. Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2417.95, up 1.86%; the commodity 20 index was 2766.04, up 2.23%; the industrial products index was 2300.06, up 1.14%; the PPI commodity index was 1405.49, up 0.67% [49]. Non - ferrous Metals Index - On February 24, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2695.65, with a daily increase of 0.95%, a 5 - day increase of 0.27%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.36% [50].