Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, Nigeria's adjustment of lithium ore production policy has led to supply concerns, supporting the price of lithium carbonate. Polysilicon prices have fallen due to the increase in registered brands. Overall, lithium carbonate has led the rise in new energy metals again. In the long term, the supply side of silicon, especially polysilicon, has a strong contraction expectation, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still on the rise, but the demand expectation is also increasing, and the expected surplus of supply - demand is narrowing. The long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [3]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the influence of northern weather, and the silicon price will continue to fluctuate. For polysilicon, the addition of new delivery brands on the exchange has led to a short - term decline in the price. For lithium carbonate, the weakening growth rate of new energy vehicle retail sales may suppress the short - term price [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **View**: Pay attention to the influence of northern weather, and the silicon price will continue to fluctuate [8]. - **Info**: As of November 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 402,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The cumulative production from January to November was 3.871 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. In October, the export of industrial silicon was 45,073 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.8%. The cumulative export from January to October 2025 was 607,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The spot price has dropped slightly, and the inventory has increased. In October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 12.6GW, a month - on - month increase of 30.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.3%. On December 6, Xinjiang launched a heavy pollution weather orange warning [8]. - **Logic**: The sharp decline in coal prices has weakened the cost support, causing the silicon price to fall. The supply in the southwest is decreasing due to the dry season, and the northwest supply has slight fluctuations. The demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon industries is decreasing, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The inventory is under pressure, but the relatively low level of warehouse receipts provides some support [8]. Polysilicon - **View**: The addition of new delivery brands on the exchange has led to a short - term decline in the price of polysilicon, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. - **Info**: The transaction price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts has increased. In October, the export volume of polysilicon decreased by 58% year - on - year, and the import volume decreased by 39.1% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the domestic newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 39.5% year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association refuted false rumors, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added two new registered brands for polysilicon futures [9][10]. - **Logic**: The addition of new registered brands may increase the number of registered warehouse receipts, leading to a short - term decline in the near - month contract price. The production capacity in the southwest is decreasing in the dry season. The demand has weakened since November, and the downstream silicon wafer price has also fallen. However, the supply is also shrinking in the dry season, and there is still an expectation of anti - involution policy. So, the price is expected to fluctuate widely [10][11]. Lithium Carbonate - **View**: The weakening growth rate of new energy vehicle retail sales may suppress the short - term price, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12][13]. - **Info**: On December 8, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.91% to 94,840 yuan/ton, and the total position increased. The spot price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, while the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased. In November, the production, wholesale, and retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles all increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the export volume increased significantly [12]. - **Logic**: The current supply - demand is strong, and the inventory is still being depleted in December. The production in November continued to rise, and it is expected to remain strong in December. The apparent demand is good, and the production schedule in the off - season in December only slightly decreased. The retail sales growth rate of new energy vehicles weakened in November. The social inventory is being depleted, and the warehouse receipts are recovering. If the Jiaxiawo mine resumes production, the supply - demand may turn loose in late December. So, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. 2.行情监测 - **Industrial Silicon**: No specific monitoring content provided other than the information in the "行情观点" section. - **Polysilicon**: No specific monitoring content provided other than the information in the "行情观点" section. - **Lithium Carbonate**: No specific monitoring content provided other than the information in the "行情观点" section. 3.中信期货商品指数 - On December 8, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2267.05, a decrease of 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, a decrease of 0.37%; the industrial product index was 2216.09, a decrease of 0.16%. The new energy commodity index on December 8, 2025, was 440.89, with a daily increase of 0.41%, a 5 - day decrease of 2.54%, a 1 - month increase of 1.83%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.91% [55][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex trend with different products having different outlooks. For example, soybean meal and soybean oil are expected to be weak, while corn is likely to be volatile, and the situation of other products such as rubber, cotton, and sugar also varies [1][6]. - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors including international supply - demand, weather, policies, and domestic inventory and consumption situations [1][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook of Each Variety 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Current Situation**: Affected by factors such as the uncertainty of US soybean demand, the expected increase in South American soybean production, high domestic soybean inventory, and changes in palm oil production and exports, domestic oils and fats are expected to have a slow de - stocking process [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to be weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to the MPOB and USDA supply - demand reports [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Current Situation**: Internationally, the market is awaiting the USDA supply - demand report, with pessimistic expectations. Domestically, short - term import soybean auctions will increase supply pressure, and inventory is high. In the medium - term, the procurement progress of imported soybeans in January is 56%, and the expected import of Australian seeds suppresses the performance of rapeseed meal. In the long - term, South American weather determines the price trend of soybean meal [1][6]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and domestic soybean meal are expected to be weak and volatile. They are expected to seek support at the lower end of the range. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the supply - demand report [2][6]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Current Situation**: The price of domestic corn shows a differentiated trend. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast and North China is low, and the price is strong. The price in the port area has declined due to the futures callback. The news of reserve auctions has affected market sentiment [6][7]. - **Outlook**: The price will be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Current Situation**: Affected by macro - sentiment, the futures price has rebounded, but the short - term supply and demand in the spot market are still loose. The supply will be in surplus until April 2026, and is expected to gradually decrease after May 2026 [7]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". The near - month contracts are likely to be weak, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of reverse spread strategies [8]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Current Situation**: The market lacks strong driving forces, with weak downstream buying support and a bearish market sentiment. Although overseas supply is increasing seasonally, there is still pressure on raw material prices to decline [9][10]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price is expected to continue the volatile trend, and it is difficult to have a trending market [10]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Current Situation**: The bullish driving force on the disk is insufficient. Although the price of raw material butadiene has rebounded, there is resistance in high - price transactions [11]. - **Outlook**: The disk will maintain a range - bound oscillation [11]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Current Situation**: The supply of new cotton in Xinjiang is increasing, and the demand is seasonally weak but supported by rigid purchases. The commercial inventory is rising seasonally, and the 01 contract is strong recently but faces pressure above [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, pay attention to the pressure at 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. In the long term, the valuation is low, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Current Situation**: In the medium - and long - term, the global sugar market is expected to be in surplus, and the price is likely to be weak. In the short term, the 01 contract has obvious support below [11][13]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - and long - term, it is expected to be weak and volatile. In the short term, there is support at 5,300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Current Situation**: Last week, the pulp futures rose rapidly, and there were some bullish news. However, there is still pressure from hedging at high prices [14]. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures will mainly show a wide - range volatile trend. If it回调s to the previous low, it can be allocated long, and it is recommended to wait and see at high prices [14]. 3.1.10 Offset Printing Paper - **Current Situation**: Affected by the decline in raw material prices, the price of offset printing paper is under pressure. The overall social demand is weak, and paper enterprises may adjust supply and demand by reducing prices or production [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will be weakly stable [15]. 3.1.11 Logs - **Current Situation**: The supply may be reduced seasonally. The overseas shipping volume is expected to decline, and there are quarantine issues with Japanese cedar. The domestic demand support is insufficient, and the 01 contract has no clear driving force [15][17]. - **Outlook**: The log market will remain in a loose pattern, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on the far - month contracts at low prices [17]. 3.2 Commodity Index - On December 8, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2267.05, down 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, down 0.37%; the industrial products index was 2216.09, down 0.16%; the agricultural products index was 930.18, with a daily decline of 0.22%, a 5 - day decline of 0.40%, a 1 - month decline of 0.65%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.57% [174][176].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, positive macro expectations and concerns about supply disruptions are pushing up prices, but the lack of full recovery in real consumption may limit price increases. Also, beware of price adjustments after the Fed's possible December rate cut. Consider low - buying opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. - In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions for copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so their prices are expected to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: Supply has a contraction expectation, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4][8]. - **Analysis**: Codelco is raising the premium for refined copper supplied to Chinese customers in 2026. CSPT will reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026. In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased. On December 8, the average premium of 1 electrolytic copper spot decreased. As of December 8, copper inventory increased [8][9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure [4][11]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, alumina prices in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipt decreased. High - cost production capacity has fluctuations, and the domestic market is in a strong inventory - building trend. The current large gap between futures and spot prices may lead to the spot price following the decline of the futures price [11][12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to decline, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4][13]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased in some regions. In November 2025, China's un - wrought aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year. An Indonesian aluminum plant will start trial operation in mid - December [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and the market fluctuates at a high level [4][15]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, the price of some aluminum alloy products decreased. The import of scrap aluminum in October increased year - on - year. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some alloy plants face production cut risks. Demand has a marginal improvement, and social inventory decreases slightly while warehouse receipt inventory increases [15][16]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Social inventory has decreased, and zinc prices will have a short - term rebound [4][18]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, the premium of 0 zinc in different regions varied. As of December 8, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. A zinc mine in Australia postponed high - grade zinc ore mining. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and the domestic zinc export window is open [18]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Social inventory is decreasing, and lead prices may continue to rebound [4][19]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots increased slightly. The inventory of lead ingots in the social warehouse decreased, but the decrease may slow down. The profit of secondary lead smelting is high, and the production of lead - acid battery factories is at a high level [19][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The non - ferrous metal market is generally strong, and nickel prices fluctuate accordingly [4][21]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Recently, there have been transactions of domestic and Indonesian high - nickel pig iron. The market sentiment dominates the market, and the overall supply of nickel - related products is relatively loose [21]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The transaction price of nickel - iron has bottomed out and rebounded, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates [4][23]. - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel warehouse receipt decreased slightly. Recently, there have been transactions of domestic and Indonesian high - nickel pig iron. In November, stainless - steel production decreased slightly, and in December, it may decline further. Social inventory has not increased significantly, but there is still inventory pressure [23][24]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply concerns continue, and tin prices fluctuate strongly at a high level [4][24]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, LME tin warehouse receipts decreased, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased. The spot price of tin decreased slightly. The复产 of a mine in Wa State is slow, Indonesian tin exports are restricted, and African tin production is affected. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and demand from semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing [24][26]. 4. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On December 8, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2267.05, down 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, down 0.37%; the industrial product index was 2216.09, down 0.16% [154]. - **Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On December 8, 2025, the non - ferrous metal index was 2576.49, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a 5 - day increase of 2.55%, a 1 - month increase of 3.58%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.62% [156].

铂观点：价格跟随贵⾦属板块波动，等待进⼀步向上驱动 主要逻辑：进入12月，临近美国总统提名美联储主席，降息再次成为 贵金属板块的核心交易矛盾。当前，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文· 哈赛特是下任美联储主席的头号候选人，其鸽派发言引发外界对美联 储独立性的进一步担忧，铂价有所走强。长期来看，铂金供给集中度 高导致扰动风险持续存在，需求在工业和投资端的带动下将稳步扩 张，同时"降息+软着陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性，因此长 期维持多头观点。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-09 降息交易成为市场重心，铂钯高位震荡 12⽉8⽇，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为442.05元/克，涨幅0.78%；钯主⼒ 合约收盘价为383.70元/克，涨幅1.07%。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价将震荡偏强，建 议关注铂低吸做多机会。同时，在铂钯比价低位情况下，建议关注多 铂空钯策略。 钯观点：现货紧张延续，价格保持坚挺 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是钯供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务 部正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进行调查，调查报告仍未发布。由 于对俄罗斯钯的制 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-09 中国原油进⼝延续⾼增⻓，纯苯港⼝库 存压⼒较⼤ 12月8日我国召开中央政治局会议，领导人明确将扩大内需作为 2026年的首要经济任务，并承诺加大跨周期调节力度，会议也表示继续实 施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。当日我国公布外贸数据， 11月出口同比增5.9%，进口增1.9%；其中11月我国原油进口5089万吨，同 比增长4.88%，累积增长3.2%。正如我们一再提及的，2025年全球石油需 求都有些超预期表现。油价在连续三日上涨后小幅走低，普京上周承诺将 向印度"不间断供应"燃料，市场密切关注俄罗斯原油的销售进展。 板块逻辑： 液体化工库存近期走势略有分化。乙二醇华东港口周一数据显示累库 8.06%，近几周乙二醇持续累库，且1月新装置投产在即。纯苯周度累库累 库16%，纯苯库存直逼近五年最高，而不仅仅是季节性五年最高；因为苯 乙烯装置前期的检修，苯乙烯周度去库，港口库存仍是五年最高，因货源 较为集中，苯乙烯期价强于纯苯。近期煤炭价格也连日走弱，因冬季取暖 不及预期且逐步累库，煤化工的成本支撑因此弱化 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-9 贵⾦属震荡运⾏，关注周内FOMC会议 周⼀贵⾦属震荡运⾏，市场在议息会议前表现平静。短期来看，12⽉议息 会议降息25BP的预期交易相对充分，靴⼦落地后或有调整压⼒，但幅度 可能有限，⽉内贵⾦属⽅向预计延续震荡向上。 重点资讯： 1）日本第三季度实际GDP年化季环比终值降2.3%，预期降2%，初值降 1.8%；季环比终值降0.6%，预期降0.5%，初值降0.4%。修正后的数据 显示，日本经济在7-9月当季的萎缩幅度大于初步估计，证实了这是 六个季度以来的首次萎缩。 2）日本政府向临时国会提交了2025年度补充预算案。这将成为执行 经济对策的财源，用于应对物价高涨和强化经济增长战略。在首相高 市早苗"负责任的积极财政"方针下，一般会计支出达到18.3034万 亿日元，创下新冠疫情后新高。由于税收增加部分无法覆盖支出，逾 6成财政收入将通过追加发行作为借款的国债来填补。 3）美国财长贝森特：美国今年GDP增长率将达3%；预计明年通胀率将 大幅下降，债券市场迎来2020年以来表现最佳的一年。 价格逻辑： 周一贵金属震荡 ...

Group 1: Government Bond Issuance Overview - This week, the net financing scale of government bonds was 267 billion yuan, a decrease of 3383 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is -5102 billion yuan [11] - As of December 7, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 102.2%, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 92.9%, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 100.8%, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 92.7%, and the progress of treasury bond net financing + new local bond issuance was 96.2% [3][17][8][12] Group 2: Special Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 39 billion yuan, a decrease of 186.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of December 7, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December was 39 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 50.1 billion yuan [3] Group 3: General Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 11.4 billion yuan, an increase of 2.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of December 7, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December was 11.4 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 21 billion yuan [18] Group 4: Treasury Bond Issuance - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was -33.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 72.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is -572.4 billion yuan (750 billion yuan of special treasury bonds are due, and the roll - over should be noted) [8] Group 5: Local Bond Issuance - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 60.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 265.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 62.3 billion yuan [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides an in - depth introduction to the LME copper futures rules, including background, trading rules, and delivery rules, aiming to help investors understand and participate in LME copper futures trading [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01 Background Introduction - **LME Introduction**: The London Metal Exchange is the world's industrial metal trading center, a wholly - owned subsidiary of HKEX. It trades metals such as copper, aluminum, etc., and its prices and inventories significantly impact global non - ferrous metal production and sales [18]. - **LME Copper Contract**: The copper contract has a code of CA, a unit of 25 tons, and is quoted in US dollars per ton. It has various contract months, with physical delivery. The trading time varies, and the last trading day ends at the first - round trading before the expiration date. The delivery currency includes the US dollar, yen, etc., and the delivery standard is A - grade copper [20]. - **Importance of Copper and LME's Role**: Copper is crucial for electrical systems and green technologies. LME copper futures have good liquidity and market depth, with a trading term up to 10 years. It enables precise hedging and uses the official LME price as the global benchmark [21]. 02 Trading Rules - **Contract Types**: There are daily contracts (for within 3 months, with delivery on each London weekday), weekly contracts (for 4 - 6 months, with delivery on Wednesdays), and monthly contracts (for 7 months and above, with delivery on the third Wednesday of each month) [24]. - **Trading Types**: There are three trading types: ring trading (an open - outcry, in - person trading method for specific contracts), telephone trading (24 - hour off - exchange trading), and electronic trading (LME Select, allowing trading of standard 3M contracts from 08:00 - 02:00 (Beijing time), winter time + 1) [26]. - **Swap Business**: Swap means adjusting two contracts with different maturity dates to the same date. It includes borrowing (buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts) and lending (selling near - term contracts and buying far - term contracts). Swap results in premiums or discounts based on market supply and demand. The fee rules depend on the time of the swap [30]. 03 Delivery Rules - **Buying Delivery (Taking Delivery)**: - **Pre - delivery Preparation**: Determine delivery requirements, establish long futures positions, prepare funds, and match special requirements if necessary [37]. - **Delivery Execution**: It involves multiple steps such as expressing delivery intention, confirming funds, receiving and allocating or exchanging warehouse receipts, and transferring funds. After that, manage warehouse receipts, receive delivery receipts, and arrange for the pick - up of goods [40]. - **Selling Delivery (Delivering to the Warehouse)**: - **Pre - delivery Preparation**: Confirm the compliance of goods, establish short futures positions, store goods in approved warehouses and register warehouse receipts, and submit delivery intentions [47]. - **Delivery Execution**: Submit registered warehouse receipts, have the clearinghouse verify and lock short positions, receive payment from the exchange, transfer warehouse receipt ownership, receive settlement vouchers, settle fees, and plan for follow - up operations [50]. - **Precautions**: The delivery price is based on the LME delivery settlement price, with additional premiums for the specified - goods mode. Warehouse receipts need to be legally transferred through the clearinghouse. Delivery fees should be confirmed in advance, and swap operations can be used to postpone delivery time if necessary [58]. - **Delivery Warehouses**: LME has over 450 approved delivery warehouses in 34 locations globally. Asian warehouses are mainly in South Korea, Malaysia, etc. In Hong Kong, there are 8 approved delivery warehouses as of December 2025 [66]. - **Position Limits**: Different LME metal futures and options have corresponding default position limits, such as 100 lots for copper futures (CA - F) and 50 lots for copper options (CA - O) [70].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-05 沙特下调1⽉对亚洲的OSP价格，原油 震荡化⼯偏弱 俄乌谈判进展缓慢，原油价格延续震荡整理。当前乌克兰谈判代表将 在佛罗里达州举行新一轮会谈，而俄罗斯总统普京表示，美国支持的和平 计划中部分内容"不可接受"，这一最新信号表明短期内冲突结束的可能 性极低。同时，特朗普再次重申，"很快"将开始在委内瑞拉境内打击贩 毒集团，美军已在该地区集结兵力。原油中期格局趋弱，短期受到地缘不 确定性的支撑，仍将延续震荡整理。未来的变量可能在于俄乌谈判的达 成，或者是俄罗斯贴水持续回落后买盘的回归。沙特下调了1月对亚洲的O SP价格，该举措通常被认为是对需求偏弱的确认或是抢占市场份额。 板块逻辑： 美国天然气期货价格在周三升至35个月高位，LNG出口工厂的流入量 创下纪录高位，且天气预报显示气温将下降，天然气的上涨带动了乙烷价 格的走高。乙烷是乙烯和乙二醇的重要原料，乙烷的走高，乙烯和乙二醇 价格的走弱，当前乙烷裂解的利润快速下滑，这有可能影响后期美国乙二 醇的生产。美国是排在沙特后面的第二大乙二醇出口国，占全球乙二醇出 口比例 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, gold oscillates, and silver adjusts at a high level. The short - term fluctuations of precious metals are mainly affected by the silver capital side. In the long - term, the narrative of the contraction of the US dollar credit will continue to drive the upward trend of precious metals [3][5]. - The logical environment is generally favorable for the rise of precious metals this month. The expectation of loose liquidity is the core driver, and the nomination of the Fed Chairman is the key concern. The squeeze trading in silver may still be repeated this month [5]. - Looking ahead, the range of spot gold in London this week is expected to be between $4000 and $4400 per ounce, and that of spot silver in London is expected to be between $53 and $60 per ounce [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - US initial jobless claims last week were 191,000, with an expected 220,000. The four - week average was 214,750. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending November 22 were 1.939 million, with an expected 1.961 million. The current application level is consistent with historically low lay - offs, which may ease market concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labor market [4]. - The number of Challenger corporate lay - offs in the US in November was 71,321, a 53.4% decrease from the previous value. Year - on - year, it increased by 23.5% [4]. - The Chicago Fed expects the US unemployment rate in November to remain stable at around 4.4% [4]. 3.2 Price Logic - On Thursday, gold oscillated, and silver adjusted at a high level. Attention should be paid to the support at the previously broken level of $53 - $54. The US weekly initial and continuing jobless claims announced on the day conformed to seasonal patterns and had a low impact on the market [3][5]. - This month, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driver, and the nomination of the Fed Chairman is the key concern. The relatively dovish candidate Hassett has the highest popularity. The period from nomination to taking office may be the smoothest time for trading on the expectation of loose liquidity and the independence of the Fed [5]. - The spot lease rate of London silver remains at a relatively high level, and the squeeze trading is spreading from London to Asia and the US, which may still be repeated this month [5]. 3.3 Market Indexes - **Commodity Indexes**: The comprehensive index shows that the commodity index is 2272.72 (+0.11%), the commodity 20 index is 2593.02 (+0.20%), and the industrial products index is 2228.63 (+0.41%) [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On December 4, 2025, the precious metals index was 3485.92, with a daily decline of 0.59%, a 5 - day increase of 1.61%, a 1 - month increase of 7.61%, and a year - to - date increase of 57.56% [46]. - **PPI Commodity Index**: The PPI commodity index is 1371.00 (+0.78%) [46].