Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a positive trend after the holiday, the bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and the strategy of shorting volatility in index options can be appropriately adopted [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Trends and Strategies Stock Index Futures - After - holiday trend is positive. During the holiday, the offshore Hong Kong market first rose and then declined, with semiconductor, electrical equipment, and price - increase chains leading the gains, which is beneficial to the anti - involution and dual - innovation styles in the A - share market. The weakening of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the week may be related to the US dollar index, but the weak - dollar assumption remains unchanged. The positive factors for the post - holiday A - share market include positive expectations for the 15th Five - Year Plan, large - scale technology stocks outperforming the market, and pre - holiday resting funds likely to re - enter the market. Under the dominance of domestic institutional investors, the dual - innovation sector is expected to outperform, followed by CSI 1000 and CSI 2000. The operation suggestion is to hold IM contracts [1][7] Stock Index Options - The strategy of shorting volatility can be appropriately adopted. Before the holiday, the option strategy was defensive for equity positions. After the holiday, as the market stabilizes and the previous long - option positions are closed, the implied volatility of options is likely to decline naturally, so shorting volatility is recommended this week [2][7] Bond Index Futures - The bond market is expected to be volatile and cautious in the short - term. On September 30, the main contracts of bond index futures rose collectively. The central bank's reverse repurchase net withdrawal on the 30th tightened the overnight capital market. The slightly better - than - expected September manufacturing PMI, the central bank's plan to conduct a 1.1 - trillion 3 - month outright reverse repurchase on October 9, and some trading desks' net buying of spot bonds contributed to the positive sentiment in the bond market. During the National Day holiday, new policies and consumption data emerged. In the short - term, factors such as fund fee reform and the stock - bond seesaw may continue to affect the bond market. The central bank's stance on policies implies that reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may need to wait. In a volatile market, long - term bonds have greater fluctuations, and long - term arbitrage opportunities are recommended. The yield curve may continue to steepen. Operation suggestions include a cautious trend strategy, paying attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels, long - term arbitrage opportunities, and curve steepening [3][7][9] 2. Economic Calendar - The economic data released this week include China's September official manufacturing PMI (49.8, slightly exceeding expectations), the US September ISM manufacturing PMI (49.1), and China's September foreign exchange reserves (33386.58 billion US dollars, an increase of 165 billion US dollars from the end of August) [10] 3. Important Information and News Tracking US Macroeconomics - The US government shutdown continues, but Goldman Sachs believes it is unlikely to last beyond October 15. The two - party dispute focuses on the medical subsidy bill expiring on November 1, and if Trump shows willingness to discuss health issues, the Democrats may agree to a short - term reopening of the government [11] Domestic Macroeconomics - China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of September were 33386.58 billion US dollars, an increase of 165 billion US dollars from the end of August, and gold reserves increased by 40,000 ounces to 74.06 million ounces, with 11 consecutive months of increases. The increase in foreign exchange reserves is due to factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset price changes, and China's stable economic development is conducive to maintaining the stability of foreign exchange reserves [11] Precious Metals - On October 7, the New York gold futures price hit a record high of over 4000 US dollars per ounce, and the London spot gold price also exceeded 3990 US dollars per ounce. Factors such as the US fiscal deficit, geopolitical conflicts, central bank gold - buying, and Fed rate - cut expectations have driven the rise. Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to 4900 US dollars per ounce [12] Real Estate - In the first three quarters of 2025, the financing scale of real - estate enterprises was 307.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30%. The financing scale in the third quarter was 114.5 billion yuan, a 5% increase from the previous quarter but a 35% decrease year - on - year, remaining at a historical low. Most private real - estate enterprises, especially troubled ones, still face significant financing difficulties [12] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring No specific monitoring data content is provided in the given text for detailed summary.

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-10-09 供应扰动继续发酵，国庆期间基本金属 进一步走高 有⾊观点：供应扰动继续发酵，国庆期间基本⾦属进⼀步⾛⾼ 交易逻辑：美联储重启降息后，投资者对宏观面预期较为正面，国庆期间 宏观面相对平稳，基本金属价格无视美元指数反弹而进一步上涨。供需面 来看，反向开票问题使得废料供应收紧，再生金属冶炼减产风险加大，国 庆前后铜锡和锌等品种供应扰动不断；9月以来，终端消费略微偏弱，但 相对平稳，供需预期将趋紧，这对金属价格有支撑。中短期来看，供应扰 动问题持续发酵引发部分品种脉冲上涨，但考虑到消费相对一般且美元指 数反弹，预计国庆后下游或有逐步消化的过程，这将限制进一步上行的高 度，节后追涨需谨慎，减持多头或暂获利了结为宜，待需求表现稳定后， 可重新关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会，长期来看，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期 仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，这将进一步推 高基本金属价格。 铜观点：供应端收缩逻辑继续发酵，铜价延续偏强⾛势。 氧化铝观点：基本⾯仍偏弱势，氧化铝价上⽅承压。 铝观点：观察需求成⾊，铝价震荡运⾏。 铝合 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-10-09 假日期间外盘变化不大，品种多观望 油脂：等待进一步信息指引，或继续震荡盘整 蛋白粕：多空并存，延续震荡 玉米/淀粉：新粮逐步上市，节日期间下跌为主 生猪：节后需求转淡，猪价延续弱势 天然橡胶：外盘波动有限，关注节后盘面情绪 合成橡胶：盘面延续区间震荡 棉花：棉价延续偏弱走势 白糖：糖价预计延续低位震荡整理 纸浆：假日期间无重点变化，纸浆延续弱势格局 双胶纸：假期交投偏弱，节后现货仍有下行压力 原木：弱现实与旺季预计博弈，关注下游需求兑现 【异动品种】 玉米观点：新粮逐步上市，节日期间下跌为主 信息：根据Mysteel，锦州港平舱价为2300元/吨，环比变化0元/吨。国内 玉米均价2350元/吨，环比变化-2元/吨。主力合约收盘价2178元/吨，环 比变化+0.6%。 逻辑：节日期间，随着新粮逐步放量，价格整体偏弱运 行。锦州港晨间集港量在假期期间维持高位400-700车范围。节日前期， 华北深加工门前早间剩余车量明显增加，节中一度攀升至近1800车高位。 伴随供应增加，锦州港新粮收购价从节前的2200元以上快速跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Global Macro Situation**: The US government is in a shutdown, and Japan may have its first female prime - minister. Domestically, the economy continues to stabilize, with the manufacturing PMI rising and the non - manufacturing PMI falling slightly. In October, domestic assets benefit from policy expectations and ample liquidity, while overseas focus is on the Fed's potential October rate cut and the BOJ's inaction. The weak - dollar trend continues but at a slower pace, and US stocks face risks while oscillating upwards. In asset allocation, the order of preference in the fourth quarter is equities > commodities > bonds [8]. - **Market Outlook for Different Sectors**: Most sectors are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, including financial, precious metals, shipping, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agriculture sectors [9][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price Movements - **Financial Instruments**: Stock index futures, such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures, have shown varying degrees of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly increases. Treasury futures have generally been weak, with some showing small increases and others decreases [3]. - **Industry Indices**: Industries like construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals have positive price increases, while sectors such as food and beverage, and some technology - related industries have seen declines [4]. - **Overseas Commodities**: Energy commodities like NYMEX WTI crude and ICE Brent crude have declined, while precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have increased. Non - ferrous metals and agricultural products also show different price trends [4]. - **Domestic Commodities**: Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products all have their own price movement characteristics, with some rising and some falling [5]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: The US government shutdown may negatively impact the US economy. The potential election of Japan's first female prime - minister, who advocates "Abenomics" and has a tough stance on China, may affect Sino - Japanese relations and market risk appetite [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic economy continues to stabilize, with the manufacturing PMI rising and the non - manufacturing PMI falling slightly. During the holiday, consumption and travel were active, but movie box - office consumption was weak [8]. 3.3 Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial Sector**: The stock market has a volume - shrinking rebound, and the bond market remains weak. Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while stock index options and treasury futures are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner [9]. - **Shipping Sector**: Attention is paid to the rate of freight price decline. The container shipping to Europe line and steel - related products are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: A negative feedback loop is difficult to form, and the sector is expected to remain volatile before the holiday [9]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Supply disruptions continue to drive price movements, and most non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Energy Chemical Sector**: Crude oil continues to be volatile, and the chemical sector is mainly for hedging and arbitrage, with most products expected to be volatile [11]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy changes, oilseeds and meals have been hit hard, and most agricultural products are expected to be volatile [11].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Stock Index and Precious Metals Continue to Rise, Most Commodities Show Flat Trends - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250930" [1] - Author: Zhong Ding from CITIC Futures Research Institute [1] 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: Trump's tariff escalation and the US government shutdown crisis have increased policy risks. There are significant differences within the Fed regarding the pace of interest rate cuts and the policy framework [5]. - Domestic macro: In August, the year - on - year growth of industrial enterprise profits reached 20.4%, the highest in nearly two years, and the cumulative growth rate turned positive to +0.9%. However, the demand shortage remains. In the fourth quarter, the asset allocation order is equity > commodities > bonds [5]. - Asset view: Be cautious of external risk disturbances during holidays. Maintain the strategic advantage of equity and gold in the medium - term, and balance the tactical allocation [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Performance 3.1.1. Domestic Main Commodities - Shipping: The container shipping route to Europe has seen price drops, with a daily decline of -2.11% and a quarterly decline of -16.73% [2]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices are rising. Gold has a daily increase of 1.22% and a quarterly increase of 12.63%, while silver has a daily increase of 2.89% and a quarterly increase of 24.21% [2]. - Non - ferrous metals: Most non - ferrous metals show mixed trends, with some rising and some falling [2]. - Black building materials: Products like rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore have different price changes, with iron ore having a quarterly increase of 13.62% [2]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil, fuel oil, and other products also have various price trends. Crude oil has a quarterly increase of 2.54% [2]. - Agricultural products: The prices of soybeans, palm oil, and other agricultural products fluctuate [2]. 3.1.2. Financial Markets - Stock index futures: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, etc. are rising. The CSI 300 futures have a daily increase of 1.76% and a quarterly increase of 18.50% [3]. - Treasury bond futures: Most treasury bond futures are falling, such as the 2 - year treasury bond futures with a quarterly decline of -0.30% [3]. - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index has a quarterly increase of 1.47% [3]. 3.1.3. Overseas Commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have different price trends. ICE Brent oil has a quarterly increase of 3.29% [3]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold and silver prices are rising. COMEX gold has a quarterly increase of 14.32% [3]. - Non - ferrous metals: LME metals also show mixed price movements [3]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans, corn, etc. have price fluctuations [3]. 3.2. Sector and Variety Analysis 3.2.1. Finance - Stock index futures: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active, and the short - term outlook is for a volatile rise [6]. - Bond market: The bond market remains weak. Treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2.2. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Influenced by the restart of the US interest rate cut cycle in September, prices are expected to rise with fluctuations [6]. 3.2.3. Shipping - Container shipping route to Europe: As the peak season fades in the third quarter, prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2.4. Black Building Materials - Steel, coke, iron ore, etc.: Affected by factors such as demand expectations and policy disturbances, prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2.5. Non - ferrous and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, zinc, etc.: Affected by supply disturbances and other factors, prices show different trends, with copper expected to rise with fluctuations [6]. 3.2.6. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, LPG, etc.: Affected by supply - demand changes and geopolitical factors, prices are expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2.7. Agriculture - Oils, protein meals, etc.: Affected by factors such as trade policies and weather, prices are expected to fluctuate, and the price of pigs is expected to fall with fluctuations [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On September 29, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell, and commodities showed mixed performances with coking coal and coke leading the declines [9][12] - The NDRC will strengthen the implementation of macro - economic policies in a timely manner as the current economic operation still faces challenges [40][41] Summaries by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 29, equity indices rose (IM up 2.0%), CGB futures fell (TL down 0.5%), and commodities had mixed results. Top gainers in commodities were silver (up 3.9% with 6.5% m - o - m open interest drop), gold (up 1.3% with 0.4% m - o - m open interest drop), and apple (up 1.2% with 4.5% m - o - m open interest drop). Top decliners were coking coal (down 5.0% with 9.5% m - o - m open interest drop), silicon metal (down 4.3% with 14.2% m - o - m open interest drop), and coke (down 4.2% with 3.5% m - o - m open interest drop) [9][10][11] 1.2 Daily Raise - **Gold & Silver**: On September 29, gold rose 1.3% to 866.52 yuan/gram, and silver rose 3.9% to 10939 yuan/kg. During the National Day holiday, U.S. non - farm payroll and PMI data release and the risk of data delay due to a U.S. government shutdown should be noted. Gold's bullish trend persists, and in Q4, Fed rate - cut expectations and independence risks will drive the upward trend. In H1 2026, a shift to "recovery trade" may pose correction risks. Long - term, gold is a preferred asset for hedging U.S. dollar credit risks. Silver has greater short - term upside flexibility and may challenge its 2011 historical high [16][17][19] 1.3 Daily Drop - **Coke**: On September 29, coke fell 4.2% to 1647 yuan/ton. Mainstream coke enterprises have raised prices due to profit pressure, but steel mills haven't responded. Short - term price fluctuations are expected. Supply decreased due to poor profits, demand was supported by rising molten iron output, and inventories showed steel mills increasing stocks and coke enterprises slightly reducing stocks [24][26][28] - **Coking Coal**: On September 29, coking coal fell 5.0% to 1154 yuan/ton. Supply recovery is slow, and short - term mid - and downstream stockpiling demand can be sustained. Short - term price fluctuations are expected. Some coal mines in Shanxi resumed production, and imports decreased. Coke output declined slightly, but mid - and downstream purchasing was active [30][32][34] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The NDRC stated that in August, China's economy was generally stable. However, it still faces challenges, and the NDRC will strengthen macro - economic policies in a timely manner [40][41] - China will add a visa category for young sci - tech talents to promote exchanges [40][41] - Premier Li Qiang met with DPRK Foreign Minister Choe Son hui, and both sides are willing to implement the consensus of the top leaders [40] - From January to August, SOEs' total operating revenue increased 0.2% YoY, while total profits decreased 2.7% YoY [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the National Day holiday approaching, it is advisable for long - position holders to reduce positions to control risks. In the short - to - medium term, weak US dollar and supply disruptions support metal prices, while weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support basic metal prices. The report maintains the view of buying copper, aluminum, and tin on dips but suggests reducing long positions or taking profits due to the approaching holiday [1]. - Copper: The reduction in Indonesian copper mine production has a significant impact, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Aluminum oxide: The fundamentals remain weak, and the upside of aluminum oxide prices is under pressure. Aluminum: Inventories have decreased, and aluminum prices will oscillate. Aluminum alloy: Cost support remains, and the market will oscillate. Zinc: The decline in ferrous product prices causes zinc prices to oscillate weakly. Lead: Pre - holiday stocking has weakened, and lead prices are under pressure. Nickel: LME nickel inventories continue to increase, and nickel prices will oscillate widely. Stainless steel: The slight decline in ferronickel prices leads to a correction in the stainless - steel market. Tin: Supply disruptions in Indonesia reappear, and tin prices will oscillate [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 Copper - **Viewpoint**: The reduction in Indonesian copper mine production has a significant impact, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly. - **Analysis**: Grasberg mine in Indonesia may see a 35% drop in 2026 production. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September 2025. In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 tons month - on - month and increased by 15.59% year - on - year. As of September 29, copper inventories increased by 0.82 tons to 14.83 tons. After the release of "770 - document", there was a large - scale shutdown and production reduction in the recycled copper market [7][8]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut supports copper prices. The supply of copper mines is disrupted, and the cost of scrap copper recycling has increased, leading to expected production cuts in electrolytic copper. Terminal demand is in the peak season, and downstream stocking willingness has increased. If inventories continue to decline, copper prices may remain strong [9]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and with increased supply disruptions and a low - level US dollar index, copper is expected to oscillate strongly [9]. Aluminum Oxide - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the upside of aluminum oxide prices is under pressure. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the prices of aluminum oxide in various regions declined. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10,000 tons of aluminum oxide, with the winning bid price down 10 - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. Aluminum oxide warehouse receipts increased by 10,548 tons to 159,759 tons [10][11]. - **Logic**: Macro - sentiment affects the market. The operating capacity remains high, and the strong inventory - accumulation trend continues. The fundamentals are weak, but the decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter is limited, which may restrict the downside. Potential production - cut expectations and Guinea - related disruptions will affect prices [11]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum oxide is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [11]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventories have decreased, and aluminum prices will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton. Domestic mainstream consumption - area electrolytic aluminum inventories decreased by 2.5 tons compared to last Thursday and 4.6 tons compared to last Monday. Aluminum rod inventories also decreased. The State Council's eight - department document promotes the stable growth of the non - ferrous industry [11][12]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut makes the US dollar weak. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches. Pre - holiday stocking drives inventory reduction, and the spot is at a discount. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, consumption and inventory - reduction sustainability need to be observed. In the medium term, with limited supply growth and resilient demand, the center of aluminum prices is expected to rise [12]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support remains, and the market will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports. In August 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy decreased by 16.7% year - on - year [13]. - **Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and cost reduction space is limited. Supply - side production is increasing, and demand is marginally improving. Inventories are accumulating, and prices are expected to oscillate. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage. In the medium term, supply and demand are weak, but raw - material disruptions are possible, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The decline in ferrous product prices causes zinc prices to oscillate weakly. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a discount to the main contract. As of September 29, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventories decreased by 0.90 tons. CZSPT set the import zinc concentrate processing fee for the end of Q4 2025 at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton [15][16]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is slightly negative. Zinc ore supply is loosening, and smelters' profitability is good. Domestic consumption is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and demand is average. Fundamentals are in surplus, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation makes the non - ferrous sector strong, and zinc prices may oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the long term [16]. - **Outlook**: Zinc ingot production will remain high in September, and inventories may accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Pre - holiday stocking has weakened, and lead prices are under pressure. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM 1 lead ingot decreased by 125 yuan/ton. Social inventories of lead ingots decreased by 0.43 tons. After pre - holiday stocking, there may be new low - price stocking intentions, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation after the holiday [17]. - **Logic**: Spot premiums are narrowing, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is decreasing. The cost of recycled lead smelting is rising, and production is increasing. Demand is in the transition period, and the lead - acid battery industry's operating rate is high. - **Outlook**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the US dollar rebounded slightly. Pre - holiday battery factory stocking is almost over, and demand may decline. Supply may increase, and costs are rising slightly. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [21]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: LME nickel inventories continue to increase, and nickel prices will oscillate widely. - **Analysis**: On September 29, LME nickel inventories increased by 1188 tons to 231,312 tons. High - nickel pig iron prices are under pressure. A battery recycling company in Germany will build a large - scale lithium - battery recycling plant [21][22]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Nickel salt prices are slightly weakening, and inventories are accumulating. Short - term trading is recommended, and the performance of the ore end and macro - sentiment should be observed [23]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the non - ferrous sector is strong, but LME nickel inventories are increasing significantly. Nickel prices may strengthen in the short term, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended in the long term [23]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The slight decline in ferronickel prices leads to a correction in the stainless - steel market. - **Analysis**: As of September 29, stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 357 tons. The average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.5 yuan/nickel point [25]. - **Logic**: Ferronickel and ferrochrome prices are stable. Stainless - steel production increased in August. Social inventories increased slightly, and warehouse receipts decreased. The structural over - supply pressure has eased. - **Outlook**: There is a risk of increased production cuts by steel mills. The fundamentals suppress prices. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and inventory and cost changes. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions in Indonesia reappear, and tin prices will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On September 29, LME tin warehouse receipts decreased by 105 tons to 2670 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased by 127 tons to 5950 tons. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingot decreased by 2300 yuan/ton [25]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is the core concern. The resumption of production in Wabang's Manxiang mining area is slow, and African tin production is unstable. Tin concentrate processing fees are low, and the operating rate of refined tin is low. Supply is tight, but terminal demand is weakening in the second half of the year, and inventory reduction is difficult in Q4. - **Outlook**: With tight supply at the mine end, tin prices have bottom support and are expected to oscillate [26]. 3.2行情监测 Not provided in the content 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities was 2235.10, down 0.13%; the commodity 20 index was 2510.22, down 0.08%; the industrial products index was 2238.46, down 0.50%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2406.68, with a daily decline of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 1.43%, a one - month increase of 0.89%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.26% [152][154].

中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-30 股市偏积极，债市偏谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指期货：整体情绪偏积极 股指期权：情绪偏强，但期权节前仍建议买权防御 国债期货：债市震荡偏谨慎 股指期货方面，整体情绪偏积极。周一权益市场情绪整体偏积极，新 能源及保险券商异动，市场量能略收缩，节前预计以成长局部行情为主。 值得注意的是，券商股昨日异动，或隐含资金对于节后相对积极的看法。 我们认为节后行情能够持续的原因如下，其一，外部扰动有限，资金对于 美联储四季度降息计价偏积极，弱美元环境利于全球资本市场走势，其 二，十五五规划临近，预计科技及反内卷成为关键词，这或诱发资金提前 布局，政策的看涨期权仍在，其三，9月盘面虽有波折，但整体呈现强韧 性，这有利于吸引增量资金进入股市。故操作层面，节前半仓过节应对不 确定性，节后仍建议积极参与成长及反内卷博弈行情。 ⾦融衍⽣品团队 研究员: 康遵禹 从业资格号:F03090802 投资咨询号:Z0016853 股指期权方面，情绪偏强，但期权节前仍建议买权防御。昨日权益市 场震荡偏强，沪指单日涨幅0.90%。期权方面，各个品种市场成交额提 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an overall "oscillating" outlook for the black building materials industry, indicating that the prices of sector varieties are expected to remain oscillating in the short - term [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the pre - holiday restocking logic has ended, the high iron - water production still supports the demand for furnace materials, which in turn supports the steel price at the cost end. As the fourth quarter approaches, the market's expectations for the upcoming important meetings are increasing, so it is expected that the negative feedback in the industrial chain is difficult to form. The prices of sector varieties are expected to remain oscillating before the holiday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the shipments from overseas mines are stable. However, the arrival rhythm is affected by typhoons. Considering the end of pre - holiday restocking demand and the need to further verify the peak - season demand for building materials, the upside space is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel both increase, but the steel mills' restocking is nearly over, and the pressure on finished - product prices leads to a contraction in electric - furnace profits. It is expected that the price will oscillate following the finished products in the short - term [1]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: Although the steel mills' restocking is over, the rigid demand is strong under the high - iron - water background. The demand for coke is still supported, and the raw - coal price provides strong support. There are still expectations for price increases in the market, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the coal mine production is expected to decline slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal is suspended, so the overall supply pressure is not large. After the coke price increase is implemented and the profit pressure is relieved, the production can still remain at a high level. The fundamentals of coking coal are strongly supported, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: In the short - term, the high production cost and the peak - season demand expectation support the price of manganese silicon. However, the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still downward space for the price center after the peak season [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term peak - season expectation and the firm cost support the price of silicon iron. But the market's supply - demand relationship tends to be loose, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [2]. 3.4 Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [2]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed. It is expected to follow macro - changes and operate with wide - range oscillations. In the long - term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [2]. 3.6 Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The spot market trading of steel is generally weak. The restocking before the holiday is coming to an end, and the speculative intention is weak. The inventory of the five major steel products has started to decline before the holiday, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The market is still cautious about the peak - season demand and worried about the post - holiday inventory pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to be under pressure, but the downward space is limited due to the upcoming important meetings and cost support [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipments from overseas mines have recovered slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined slightly. The spot market quotation has fallen, and the port trading has recovered, but the pre - holiday trading is generally weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel both increase, but the steel mills' restocking is nearly over, and the electric - furnace profit has shrunk. It is expected to follow the finished products' price in the short - term [9]. - **Coke**: The futures price is running weakly due to the increasing risk - aversion sentiment of funds. The supply is slightly decreasing, and the demand is still supported by high iron - water production. Some steel mills have accepted the price increase, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price is running weakly due to the increasing risk - aversion sentiment of funds. The supply pressure is not large during the holiday, and the fundamentals are strongly supported. The price is expected to remain oscillating [11][12]. - **Glass**: The demand is weak in reality, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may be oscillations. In the long - term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction and is expected to oscillate downward [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro - changes and oscillate widely. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The downstream restocking demand is nearly over, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term cost and demand expectations support the price, but there is downward space after the peak season [16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market is pessimistic about the post - holiday demand. The futures price is running weakly. The short - term demand expectation and cost support the price, but there is downward pressure after the peak season [18].

Group 1: Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - OPEC+ may continue to increase production, which could drag down oil prices. The ethylene glycol port inventory is at a five - year low, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended. For loss - making varieties with low inventory pressure, a positive spread trading strategy can be held during the holiday, and it is not advisable to hold large - position unilateral positions. If holding positions, polyolefins with continuously innovative high production are preferred. The energy and chemical sector still oscillates with crude oil as the anchor. A light - position short - selling can be tried on pre - holiday rebounds, and low - inventory products can be intervened through positive spread trading [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - The energy and chemical market is expected to continue to oscillate with crude oil as the anchor. Pre - holiday rebounds can be short - sold with a light position, and low - inventory products can be traded through positive spreads [3] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - Geopolitical disturbances are frequent. The end of the Israel - Hamas conflict is optimistic, but the actual supply of crude oil has not been affected. The later focus of the geopolitical end is still on the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Under the background of OPEC+ accelerating production increase, crude oil will face the double pressure of the peak and decline of refinery start - up and OPEC+ accelerating production increase. The short - term view is oscillatory, and risk control should be noted during the holiday [9][10] Asphalt - It follows the oscillation of crude oil and continues to compress profits. The October asphalt production plan increases by 19% year - on - year, and the supply tension problem is greatly alleviated. The high premium of asphalt is expected to decline, and the price difference between months is expected to fall with the increase of warehouse receipts [11] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical disturbances drive the oscillatory price of fuel oil. The export of Russian fuel oil reached a record high in September, but geopolitical disturbances may cause the export expectation to decline significantly. The demand expectation has improved, but the support drivers are unstable. Geopolitical escalation's impact on price is short - term, and the change of the Russia - Ukraine situation should be concerned [11] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows the oscillation of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase and the demand to decline, and it is expected to run at a low valuation and follow the fluctuation of crude oil [13] Methanol - The external procurement of olefins in the inland continues, and the methanol futures price oscillates. The inventory pressure in the inland is limited, but the near - month port inventory pressure is still large. Some funds may still bargain - hunt at low prices. Low - long opportunities can be concerned from September to October [26] Urea - Pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the futures price is under pressure under the loose supply - demand situation. The current winter storage and export expectations are not good, and it is expected to be weakly sorted out [27] Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory hits a new low again, and the pattern of near - strong and far - weak continues. Although there is an expectation of a stocking inflection point in the port, the short - term price decline stops slightly, but the rebound height is limited, and interval operation is recommended [20] PX - There is cost support, but the supply - demand expectation weakens, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream naphtha is relatively strong, and the supply is at a high level. The short - term price oscillates within the interval, and the change of downstream PTA devices should be concerned [14] PTA - As the holiday approaches, the negotiation is light. The upstream cost has certain support, but the downstream negotiation is light. The price follows the cost to oscillate and sort out, and attention should be paid to the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [15] Short - Fiber - Downstream pre - holiday replenishment is mostly completed. The cost is weak, and the market lacks a clear direction. The short - fiber price is expected to maintain a bottom - interval oscillation [22] Bottle Chip - The driving force is limited, and it follows the upstream fluctuation. The upstream polyester raw materials oscillate, and the support for the bottle chip price weakens. The supply - demand side has no obvious change, and the short - term price oscillates within the interval [23] PP - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. It has fallen below the June low, and there is a slight rebound near the previous low. The supply side is still in an incremental state, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure still exists. The short - term view is oscillatory [30] Propylene - It follows the fluctuation of PP, and PL oscillates in the short term. The market sentiment is slightly boosted, but the expectation for the future is still bearish, and the operation is cautious [31] Plastic - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. The short - term price decline has led to an increase in downstream transactions. Although the downstream start - up improvement is slow, there is still some demand support. The supply side still has certain pressure, and the short - term view is oscillatory [29] Pure Benzene - The pre - holiday wait - and - see sentiment is obvious, and it oscillates weakly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking makes the structure of pure benzene stronger, but according to the current maintenance and production - start plans, it will be in a state of oversupply by the end of the year, especially with large import pressure in October [16][18] Styrene - Before the holiday, there is a wait - and - see sentiment and port stocking. The cost - side support gradually appears, the domestic production supply decreases, and the downstream demand is good, but the port inventory has a continuous stocking expectation. The profit is at a low level, and an attempt can be made to widen the profit, with a rebound - shorting idea [18][19] PVC - The market sentiment cools down, and it oscillates. The macro - level policy has been implemented, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The fundamentals are under pressure, but the disk valuation is low, and the decline space is limited [32] Caustic Soda - There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and the disk oscillates. The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The short - term spot decline slows down, and attention should be paid to whether upstream production reduction occurs due to low profit after the holiday and the procurement process of non - aluminum and alumina [32] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period price differences, basis, and inter - variety price differences of various energy and chemical varieties, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. These data can help investors understand the price relationship and market trends of different varieties [34][35][36] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [37][50][62] 4. Commodity Index - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed a decline. The energy index increased by 0.19% on the day, 3.99% in the past 5 days, 1.93% in the past month, and decreased by 0.07% since the beginning of the year [278][280]