1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "oscillating" rating for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, indicating that the expected price fluctuations for these commodities are within plus or minus one standard deviation in the future 2 - 12 weeks [6][7][10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the repeated supply expectations, the prices of new energy metals will fluctuate widely. It is necessary to wait for the policy clarity at the end of September. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in an upward stage, and the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [1] - For industrial silicon, the loosening of coal prices has led to a decline in its price. For polysilicon, the repeated policy expectations have caused its price to continue high - volatility. For lithium carbonate, as the long holiday and the point of long - short game approach, it is necessary to avoid price fluctuation risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of September 29, the spot prices of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory increased by 0.5% month - on - month. As of August 2025, the domestic monthly production of industrial silicon was 386,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%. In August, the export volume of industrial silicon increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in August decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [6] - **Main Logic**: The repeated coal prices affect the cost support of industrial silicon, and the resumption progress of large northwest factories has slowed down, so the silicon price continues to oscillate. The supply has been rising from August to September, but the resumption process has slowed down recently. The demand has slightly improved, and the inventory has remained stable [6] - **Outlook**: Before the holiday, the loosening of coal prices led to a decline in silicon prices. Recently, the resumption rhythm of large factories has slowed down, and the industrial silicon price shows short - term oscillation. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the impact of the resumption rhythm of large northwest factories on supply [6] 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: As of a certain time, the N - type polysilicon re - feeding material transaction price was in the range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased. In August, the export and import volumes of polysilicon decreased. From January to August 2025, the domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity increased year - on - year. Relevant policies on anti - involution and energy consumption standards were put forward [7] - **Main Logic**: The supply of polysilicon has recovered to over 130,000 tons in August and is expected to remain high in September. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will limit the supply. The demand for polysilicon may continue to weaken in the future. Overall, there is still pressure on the supply - demand situation, and the price fluctuation has increased [8][9] - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy has a significant boost to the polysilicon price. It is necessary to pay attention to the policy implementation. If the policy expectation fades, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [7] 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On September 29, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.43% compared with the previous day, and the total position increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. A new lithium project was put into production [9][10] - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand. There is a supply - demand gap, but the amplitude is less than expected. The supply has new investments, and there is uncertainty in supply. The apparent demand is strong, and the social inventory is decreasing, but the amplitude is less than expected. The warehouse receipts are gradually recovering, suppressing the price. It is recommended to close positions and wait and see [10] - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the long - term surplus and supply recovery expectations suppress the price. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [10] 3.2行情监测 - The report only lists the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate under this section, but no specific content is provided [12][18][29] 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all decreased, with decreases of 0.13%, 0.08%, and 0.50% respectively. The new energy commodity index decreased by 0.53% on that day, 0.22% in the past 5 days, 0.96% in the past month, and 3.50% since the beginning of the year [52][54]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views of the Report - Gold prices have reached a record high, with London gold spot breaking through $3,800 per ounce, and silver hovering near its 14 - year high. Despite strong risk - appetite in overseas markets, the risk of a US government shutdown and the decline of the US dollar have made gold an outstanding hedging and allocation target [3]. - There are both upward drivers and short - term risks for gold prices. Upward drivers include fiscal deadlock, concerns about government shutdown, the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, pressure on the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, central bank gold purchases, ETF increases, and geopolitical tensions. However, gold has risen for six consecutive weeks with a cumulative increase of over 40%, and there is a risk of short - term price correction due to profit - taking before the holiday and potential weakening of interest - rate cut expectations if US employment and PMI data are strong after the holiday [3]. - The medium - to - long - term logic for gold prices remains solid. Global debt expansion, the trend of de - globalization, continuous central bank gold purchases, Fed's future easing, and global economic uncertainties will support the strategic allocation value of gold [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key News - US President Trump announced a series of new import tariffs last Thursday, which has brought new uncertainties to the trade situation [2]. - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its third - quarter meeting, suggesting to strengthen monetary policy regulation [2]. - Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Kiev and other parts of Ukraine last Sunday, causing casualties [2]. - US lawmakers are about to hold talks with President Trump to avoid a government shutdown, and the Republican leader blamed the Democrats for the current deadlock [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices have reached a new high. London gold spot broke through $3,800 per ounce on Monday morning, and silver is near its 14 - year high. The risk of a US government shutdown and the decline of the US dollar have made gold an important hedging and allocation target [3]. - There are both upward drivers and short - term risks for gold prices. Upward drivers come from multiple factors, but there are short - term risks such as profit - taking and potential weakening of interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The medium - to - long - term logic for gold prices is solid, supported by factors like global debt expansion, central bank gold purchases, and Fed's future policies [3]. Commodity Index - On September 26, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities shows: the commodity index is 2237.97 with a - 0.51% change, the commodity 20 index is 2512.18 with a - 0.48% change, and the industrial products index is 2249.67 with a - 0.87% change [44]. - The PPI commodity index is 1325.62 with a - 0.84% change [45]. - The precious metals index on September 26, 2025: the current price is 3018.13, with a daily increase of + 0.75%, a 5 - day increase of + 1.71%, a 1 - month increase of + 9.91%, and a year - to - date increase of + 36.42% [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various agricultural and related commodity markets, providing short - and long - term outlooks and investment suggestions for each commodity. Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some commodities expected to be weak, some to be in a range - bound state, and others with potential for short - term rebounds [1][6][8]. Summary by Commodity 1. Livestock - **Pig**: In the short term, the planned pig出栏量 in September increased by 4% month - on - month, and the completion rate was 64.6%. There is still significant pressure at the end of the month. In the medium term, the number of pigs for sale is expected to increase in Q4. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy of reducing 1 million sows is implemented, the supply pressure will ease in the second half of 2026. The outlook is weak - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage strategies [1][8]. 2. Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The outlook is that soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate, while rapeseed oil will oscillate with a stronger bias. The US soybean harvest is normal, but the good - quality rate is decreasing. The domestic soybean import volume will seasonally decline, and the soybean oil inventory will peak. The palm oil inventory accumulation in September may be limited, and the rapeseed oil inventory will decline. Attention should be paid to trade relations, supply in producing areas, and overseas biodiesel demand [6]. 3. Protein Meals - **Protein Meals**: The outlook is that both soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate. Internationally, the US crop harvest is progressing well, and Brazil's sowing has a record - fast start. Domestically, there is support from pre - holiday stocking, but the inventory pressure is large. The supply of soybean meal is expected to increase in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Attention should be paid to the impact of pig "anti - involution" on sentiment [6][7]. 4. Grains - **Corn/Starch**: New grain is gradually coming onto the market. In the short term, there is pressure from the concentrated listing of new grain, but there may be a small rebound before the holiday. In the long term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [7][8]. 5. Rubbers - **Natural Rubber**: The short - term fundamentals are supportive, and the market is expected to maintain a range - bound state. The market has a strong spot, is de - stocking, and the basis is narrowing. However, there is an expectation of increased supply in Q4. Attention should be paid to raw material prices and domestic social inventory changes [10][11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market will continue to oscillate within a range. There are many device overhauls expected from September to November, and the price is at a low level, so the bearish sentiment has cooled, but there is no continuous upward driving force [12]. 6. Fibers - **Cotton**: The medium - term outlook is weak - side oscillation. The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production in the 25/26 season will bring supply pressure. Before the holiday, the price fluctuation will narrow. After the holiday, as new cotton is listed, the downward driving force will increase. Attention should be paid to the seed cotton purchase price and trade negotiations [12]. 7. Sweeteners - **Sugar**: In the short term (around National Day), it will oscillate, and the decline may slow down with a potential for a rebound. In Q4, as new sugar is listed in the Northern Hemisphere, the supply pressure will increase, and the price is expected to be weak - side oscillating. Attention should be paid to production data in Brazil's central - southern region [13][14]. 8. Pulps and Papers - **Pulp**: The market is weak - side oscillating. The downstream paper production peak is coming to an end, and the supply is in an oversupply situation. Although there is support from the delivery price, there is no clear upward logic [16]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The market is weak - side oscillating. The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is not strong, and there is no clear upward or downward driving force in the short term. The long - term outlook is weak [17]. 9. Logs - **Logs**: The market will oscillate around 800 before the holiday. The spot price is stable, the inventory is being de - stocked, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. However, the delivery situation has a negative impact on the market, and the selling hedging pressure is large [19][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 39th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, net financing scale, and their changes compared to the previous week and historical data for various types of bonds [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content New Special Bond Issuance - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 83.2% [4] - This week, new special bonds issued were 149.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 51.8 billion yuan [4] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in September was 397.1 billion yuan [4] New General Bond Issuance - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 82.7% [9] - This week, new general bonds issued were 5.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 15.1 billion yuan [7] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in September was 4.11 billion yuan [4] Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 122.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 91.6 billion yuan [12] - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.1% [12] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was - 144.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 431.2 billion yuan [17] - As of September 28, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 80.6% [18] Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing of government bonds was - 21.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 339.6 billion yuan [20] - As of September 28, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 81.7% [20]

Group 1 - Report Overview - Report title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 39, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635 [3] - Report date: September 29, 2025 [3] Group 2 - New Special Bond Issuance - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new special bonds is 83.2% [4] - This week, new special bond issuance was 149.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 51.8 billion yuan [4] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in September was 397.1 billion yuan [4] Group 3 - New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bond issuance was 5.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 15.1 billion yuan [7] - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 82.7% [9] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in September was 4.11 billion yuan [4] Group 4 - Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the local bond net financing scale was 122.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 91.6 billion yuan [12] - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new local bonds is 83.1% [12] Group 5 - Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the treasury bond net financing scale was - 144.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 431.2 billion yuan [17] - As of September 28, the treasury bond net financing progress is 80.6% [18] Group 6 - Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was - 21.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 339.6 billion yuan [20] - As of September 28, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance is 81.7% [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is currently in an upward trend, with low crowding levels indicated by volatility and other indicators, and overall stable price movements. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday, external market volatility may increase, and investors are advised to control their positions [1][3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts remains the core positive driving force for gold. Moderate inflation and weak employment have cleared the way for the Fed to cut interest rates. The Fed Watch shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year. After the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, dovish expectations are expected to continue to drive gold prices up. With the upcoming change of the Fed chairperson, Trump's control over the Fed is expected to be substantially strengthened, and there is room for imagination regarding future interest rate cuts. The increased risk to the Fed's independence also reinforces the macro - narrative of the decline in the US dollar's credit, providing greater flexibility for the gold price. The target price for US - dollar - denominated gold this year is maintained at $4000 [3][6]. - Silver trends follow gold. As the US fundamentals have not shown a significant downward trend, and the soft - landing trade dominates the market, the suppression of silver's elasticity has significantly eased. Silver prices are expected to rise with gold and may challenge the 2011 historical high of around $50 in the first or second quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - US economic data in Q2 and recent weeks were stronger than expected. The annualized final value of real GDP in Q2 increased by 3.8% quarter - on - quarter (expected 3.3%, revised value 3.3%); the GDP price index in Q2 increased by 2.1% (expected 2%, revised value 2%); real personal consumption expenditure in Q2 increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter (expected 1.7%, revised value 1.6%) [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 218,000 (expected 235,000, previous value revised from 231,000 to 232,000); the four - week average was 237,500 (previous value 240,000). The number of continued jobless claims in the week ending September 13 was 1,926,000 (expected 1,935,000, previous value 1,920,000) [2]. - The preliminary value of durable goods orders in the US in August increased by 2.9% month - on - month (expected - 0.5%, July's final value revised from - 2.8% to - 2.7%); the preliminary value of durable goods orders excluding national defense increased by 1.9% month - on - month (July's final value revised from - 2.5% to - 2.3%); the preliminary value of durable goods orders excluding transportation increased by 0.4% month - on - month (expected flat, July's final value - 2.5%) [2]. - Fed's new governor Milan publicly advocated that the Fed should immediately take more aggressive interest - rate cut measures to avoid harming the US economy. He warned that the current policy interest rate of the Fed is far higher than his estimated "neutral" level and is in a "highly restrictive" range, making the economy more vulnerable to downward shocks. The Fed "can achieve the goal through a very short - term series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts" [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - On Thursday, precious metal prices adjusted slightly. The better - than - expected US economic data led to a short - term strong rebound in the US dollar index, causing precious metals to decline slightly under pressure. The current upward trend of precious metals remains intact [1][3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core positive factor for gold. After the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, dovish expectations will drive gold prices up. The change of the Fed chairperson and the potential weakening of the Fed's independence will provide greater flexibility for the gold price, maintaining the target of $4000 for US - dollar - denominated gold this year [3][6]. - Silver follows the trend of gold. With the US economy showing a soft - landing trend, the suppression of silver's elasticity has eased, and silver prices are expected to rise with gold [6]. 3.3 Commodity Index - On September 25, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2249.48, up 0.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2524.42, up 0.75%; the industrial products index was 2269.30, up 1.07% [46]. - The precious metals index on September 25, 2025, was 2995.52, with a daily decline of 0.37%, a 5 - day increase of 3.33%, a 1 - month increase of 9.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 35.40% [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market shows a narrow - range oscillation, and the bond market curve flattens. For stock index futures, the market is in a narrow - range oscillation with local event - driven trading. For stock index options, a defensive approach should be maintained. For bond futures, the bond market curve flattens, and the overall bond market remains cautious [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The Shanghai Composite Index had a narrow - range oscillation on Thursday, with trading volume remaining at 2.4 trillion yuan. Before the holiday, there was no clear market mainline, and funds were trading around local hotspots. After concentrated hedging on Tuesday, funds gradually reduced short positions, and the basis converged to the beginning - of - week level. However, due to the approaching long holiday, the market lacked upward momentum. Industries such as media, communication, and non - ferrous metals led the gains, driven by events like the release of game licenses, Alibaba's AI infrastructure expansion plan, and a copper mine accident in Indonesia. These events are unlikely to form a trading mainline before the holiday. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a growth - style investment, allocate half - position IM long contracts, and wait for an opportunity to increase positions in mid - to - late October. - **Outlook**: Oscillation with a slightly upward trend [3][7]. Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The equity market mainly oscillated, and the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined by 0.01%. The overall trading volume of the options market decreased slightly, with the single - day trading volume of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF options dropping by 28.01%. The trading sentiment that was previously active has slowed down. The PCR of each option variety weakened, and the weighted implied volatility of options decreased by an average of 2.22%. Considering short - term hedging needs and the entry of double - buying strategies in the week before the holiday, the double - selling volatility strategy is not recommended for now. - **Operation Suggestion**: If there are equity holdings, maintain a defensive approach with options before the holiday, such as covered call and protective put strategies. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [3][7]. Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: The bond market curve flattened. The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 3.5 billion yuan in open - market operations. Although the central bank has increased the MLF roll - over for seven consecutive months, the inter - bank market funds were still tight at the end of the quarter, with the DR001 weighted average interest rate around 1.5%, which was negative for the short - end of the bond market. The equity market rose and then fell, which boosted the sentiment of the long - end of the bond market. In the short term, monetary policy may mainly rely on structural policy tools. Considering the further implementation of other growth - stabilizing policies, the overall bond market remains cautious. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, be cautiously optimistic about the oscillation. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, appropriately pay attention to basis widening. For curve strategies, expect the curve to remain steep. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [4][7]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report provides economic data from September 22 - 25, 2025, including China's one - year loan prime rate, the eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value, the US August new home sales annualized total, and the US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Tariffs**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiated a trade and investment barrier investigation into relevant Mexican measures restricting Chinese products on September 25, 2025, due to Mexico's plan to raise import tariffs on products from non - free - trade partners such as China. - **US Macroeconomy**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped to the lowest level since mid - July, with a decrease of 14,000 to 218,000 in the week ending September 20, far lower than the expected 233,000 [12][13]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and bond futures, but no specific data details are provided in the content [14][18][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillating weakly", "oscillating", and "oscillating strongly" [277]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market is influenced by multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. Geopolitical concerns, such as the situation in Ukraine and the potential for increased sanctions on Russia, are major drivers of price volatility. Supply - demand imbalances vary by product, with some facing oversupply issues while others have improving demand [2][3][8]. - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with some products having a weakening or strengthening bias. The market is also affected by seasonal factors, such as pre - holiday stocking and autumn maintenance [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns have resurfaced, and supply pressure persists. Despite the expected resumption of Iraqi oil exports, the potential for increased restrictions on Russian oil by the US and the uncertainty of sanctions policies are driving price volatility. OPEC+ is accelerating production, and refinery operations are expected to decline, putting downward pressure on prices. The outlook is for weak oscillation, with attention on short - term geopolitical disturbances [2][8]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. However, its absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase. The profit margin is compressed, and the supply situation has improved significantly, with the October production plan increasing by 19% year - on - year [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances have driven up prices. Although Russian fuel oil exports reached a high in September, geopolitical factors may cause a significant decline in export expectations. Demand is expected to improve, but the impact of geopolitical events on prices is likely to be short - lived [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It oscillates upward following crude oil. It faces challenges such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its current low valuation means it will likely follow crude oil price movements [13]. - **Methanol**: Inland olefin procurement continues, and the price oscillates. There is a contradiction between near - term and far - term inventory pressures, and there may be opportunities for long - positions in September - October [26]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and prices are under long - term pressure along the cost line. Although there are some positive expectations, the market is cautious, and prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The expectation of inventory accumulation suppresses upward price elasticity, and inventory has increased slightly. The price is expected to have limited rebound in the short - term [20][22]. - **PX**: Cost provides support, but the supply - demand outlook is weakening, and processing fees are under pressure. Supply remains high, and the potential for PTA factory production cuts may further affect demand [14][15]. - **PTA**: There are rumors of major PTA manufacturers cutting production to support prices, and processing fees have improved significantly. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with attention on the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [15][16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream markets are replenishing stocks before the holiday, and inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, following raw material prices [22][23]. - **Bottle Chip**: Typhoons have caused short - term plant shutdowns, and supply - demand drivers are limited. The price is expected to oscillate, following raw material prices [23][24]. - **PP**: Before the holiday, both long and short positions are cautious. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention on the support level of previous lows. Supply is increasing more than demand, and inventory pressure remains [31]. - **Propylene**: It follows the fluctuations of PP and oscillates in the short - term [32]. - **Plastic**: Before the holiday, both long and short positions are cautious. The price is expected to oscillate, with short - term support from factors such as reduced inventory pressure in the US and pre - holiday replenishment demand [30]. - **Pure Benzene**: The rebound is limited, and the price oscillates. There is difficulty in reducing inventory before the end of the year, especially in October when import pressure is high [17][19]. - **Styrene**: The rebound is limited, and the price oscillates. High inventory levels in the upstream and downstream are difficult to reduce, and the cost of pure benzene may drag down prices [19][20]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has improved, and the price oscillates. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, factors such as production cuts in September and increased downstream procurement at low prices are providing some support [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are strong expectations but weak reality, and the price oscillates. The demand outlook is positive, but there are still short - term supply pressures [34]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various products show different trends, with some narrowing and others widening. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX has decreased by 20, while the 5 - 9 month spread of PP has increased by 17 [35]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of different products also vary. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 60 with a change of - 48, and the number of warehouse receipts is 55980 [36]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and methanol, and PTA and PX, show different degrees of change, reflecting the relative price relationships between different products [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the overseas Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, opening policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. In the mid - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, the expected order of asset performance is equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities like gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. The value of bond allocation increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and it should be balanced with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, and the main logic in the fourth quarter is the interest - rate cut [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is coming, providing policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market fully expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data to be released in early - mid October. Historically, it takes about 2 - 3 months for the Fed's preventive rate cuts to impact the US real economy [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In the third quarter, China's economic growth slowed down. The funds of existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place faster, and attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan of financial policy tools and new directions in the "14th Five - Year Plan". Investment data in July - August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk of insufficient infrastructure funds in the fourth quarter. However, the expected GDP growth rates in the third and fourth quarters are 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in the fourth quarter will increase [6]. - **Asset Views**: After the decisions at home and abroad, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the mid - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities like gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. The value of bond allocation increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and it should be balanced with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, and the main logic in the fourth quarter is the interest - rate cut [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on the over - crowdedness of small - cap funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume declined slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the insufficient liquidity in the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factors [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: In September, the US interest - rate cut cycle restarted, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence increased. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: In the third quarter, the peak season turned to the off - season, and there is a lack of upward drivers. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the rate of freight decline in September, the changes in the market, and policy dynamics [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The effect of "anti - involution" still exists, the steel mills' restocking is obvious, and the prices are volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather factors, and port ore inventory changes [7]. - **Coke**: The cost support is strong, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is stable, and the spot price is rising. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supported by the peak - season expectation, the futures price recovers from the low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The peak - season expectation is positive, and the price is volatile upward. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the spot price will rise significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains high, and the price is driven by the glass market. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on soda ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper and Alumina**: There are new disturbances in copper ore supply, and the copper price is volatile upward. The alumina price is under pressure due to weak spot and inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment for copper is volatile upward and for alumina is volatile, with different focus points such as supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery [7]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro risks, supply disturbances, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro changes and zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead decreases, and the price is volatile upward. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on supply disturbances and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining makes the nickel price highly volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by costs, the price rises significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on Indonesian policies and demand [7]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the price is high and volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply continues to increase, suppressing the price. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on supply reduction and photovoltaic installation [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamental driving force is weak, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand, supply, and new technologies [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns re - emerge, and supply pressure continues. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - **LPG**: The chemical demand weakens, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt - fuel oil spread declines rapidly. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitical factors, the price rises. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on geopolitics and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins and port inventory, the contradiction between near - and far - term contracts is large. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The price is under cost pressure, and there is a risk of over - reaction. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on export policies and the seventh Indian tender [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market sentiment is affected by long - term inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device implementation [9]. - **PX**: Due to postponed device maintenance and capacity expansion, the supply - demand situation weakens. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand in the peak season [9]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees lead to more enterprise production cuts, but the long - term oversupply situation remains. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand in the peak season [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders improve slightly, but high supply poses risks. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on downstream yarn mill purchasing and demand in the peak season [9]. - **Bottle - Chip**: There is short - term replenishment, but the medium - long - term demand recovery is uncertain. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on enterprise production cuts and terminal demand [9]. - **Propylene**: The spread with PP fluctuates between 500 - 550. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic macro factors [9]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro factors [9]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and the price declines. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro factors [9]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment improves, and attention should be paid to policy details. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: With weak reality and strong expectation, the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Driven by the expected alumina production increase, the price rebounds. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: The risk of price fluctuations increases, and attention should be paid to trade policies. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: After the impact of Argentine soybean exports, the price rebounds from the low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and trade frictions [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The arrival of raw materials at North China deep - processing plants hits a new low, and the price rebounds slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand, macro factors, and weather [9]. - **Pig**: The near - term is weak and the long - term is strong, and the reverse spread continues. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: Positions are reduced before the holiday, and a wait - and - see attitude is maintained. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates within a range. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The price continues to be weak, and attention should be paid to the purchase price. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The price fluctuates at a low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on imports and Brazilian production [9]. - **Pulp**: The main contract of pulp is volatile, and the pressure on the 01 contract is more obvious. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macroeconomic changes and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Downstream orders are weak, and market contradictions are not prominent. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production [9]. - **Log**: The spot price is stable, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on shipment and delivery volumes [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for the black building materials sector is "Oscillation" in the medium term [5]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the deepening of the peak season, the various links in the industry chain, especially the mid - upstream links, still show seasonal improvement characteristics. As the end of the month and the fourth quarter approach, policy expectations are strengthening. Against this background, it is expected that the prices of sector varieties will maintain the current trend, mainly oscillating, with enhanced support for staged upward movement [1][5]. Summary by Related Categories Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: High - level demand provides support, factory inventories increase, and pre - holiday replenishment is obvious. The fundamental pressure is not significant, but the peak - season demand for building materials needs further verification, which limits the upward space. Affected by pre - holiday capital disturbances, short - term prices are expected to oscillate. Port trading volume decreased to 111.1 (-43.9) million tons, and the price of PB powder was 795 (+2) yuan/ton [1]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply and demand both increase again, and steel enterprises have pre - holiday replenishment needs, which support the spot price. Short - term oscillation is expected. The average tax - free price of broken materials in East China is 2187 (+0) yuan/ton [1][8]. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Spot coal prices are rising rapidly, coking profits are continuously shrinking, and mainstream coke enterprises have initiated a new round of price increases. Although steel mills' coke inventories are moderately high, pre - holiday raw material inventories continue to increase, and the pre - holiday bullish expectation in the market is strong. The futures market is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot price at Rizhao Port is 1490 yuan/ton (+40) [1][2][9]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal mine production remains cautious, supply recovery is slow, and the upward height is limited. At the same time, the pre - National Day replenishment by the middle and lower reaches can still be maintained in the short term, and the inventory of upstream coal mines remains low, with strong fundamental support. Pre - holiday coal prices are expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1280 yuan/ton (+20) [2]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: During the peak season, the downstream procurement demand is expected to support the price, but the market supply - demand expectation for the future is relatively pessimistic. After the peak season, there is still room for the price center to decline. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. The ex - factory price in Inner Mongolia is 5700 yuan/ton (-30) [2][14]. - **Silicon Iron**: The peak - season expectation and firm cost support the price performance, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. After the peak season, there is still downward pressure on the price. The ex - factory price of 72 silicon iron in Ningxia is 5330 yuan/ton (0) [2][15]. Glass - The actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream destocking, there may still be a wave of oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward. The mainstream large - board price in North China is 1210 yuan/ton (+50) [2][10]. Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro - level changes and have wide - range oscillations. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction. The delivered price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1230 yuan/ton (-) [2][13]. Commodity Indexes - On September 25, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased. The commodity index was 2249.48 (+0.75%), the commodity 20 index was 2524.42 (+0.75%), and the industrial products index was 2269.30 (+1.07%). The steel industry chain index on the same day was 2054.48, with a daily increase of +0.37%, a 5 - day decrease of -0.06%, a 1 - month increase of +1.22%, and a year - to - date decrease of -2.55% [100][102].