1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating [5] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [6] - **Corn and Starch**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating strongly in the short - term [15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating [17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [19] - **Double - offset Paper**: Oscillating [20] - **Logs**: Oscillating [23] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It points out that different products face various supply - demand situations, affected by factors such as weather, policies, and international trade. For example, natural rubber has strong short - term support; oils and fats may rise again later; corn shows a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern; hog prices are oscillating at a low level in the short - term but may strengthen in 2026 due to de - capacity policies. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Before the USDA report, the market is volatile. Factors such as the drought in the US soybean - growing areas, the inventory situation of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the inventory and trade policies of rapeseed oil in China affect the market. In the future, the probability of price increase is high [5]. - **Protein Meal**: Internationally, factors like the possible reduction of US soybean yield and the change of South American soybean planting area need attention. Domestically, the supply is abundant, and the demand is expected to be stable or increase slightly. The market is expected to oscillate in the range [6]. - **Corn and Starch**: The price shows regional differentiation. In the short - term, the supply is tight, and there is a tail - end rally. In the fourth quarter, the selling pressure will appear. In the long - term, the price is not pessimistic, showing a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern [8]. - **Hogs**: The supply is abundant in the short - and medium - term, and the price is oscillating at a low level. The "anti - involution" policy may drive the price to strengthen in 2026 [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The short - term fundamental support is strong, and there are many speculative themes. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [13]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the cost of raw material butadiene. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [14]. - **Cotton**: The domestic market has low inventory and improved demand marginally. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and short - term long positions can be tried [15]. - **Sugar**: In the new season, the global sugar supply is expected to be abundant, and the price has a downward drive in the long - term. In the short - term, it rebounds after stopping the decline [17]. - **Pulp**: After continuous decline, it rebounds. The internal contradictions are differentiated, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [19]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The market lacks clear upward or downward drivers, and the price is expected to oscillate around the listing price. Unilateral strategies can consider the 4000 - 4500 range [20]. - **Logs**: The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The price may stop falling and stabilize in September [23]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and logs, but no specific data details are provided in the given text. 3.3 Rating Standards The report provides rating standards, including definitions of ratings such as "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "weakly", and time periods and calculation methods for standard deviations [177].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The steel market presents a complex situation with different trends for different steel products. The supply - demand contradiction in rebar is accumulating, while that in hot - rolled coils is alleviating. The overall steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamentals' contradictions are still building up. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Demand - Rebar apparent demand is 1.9807 million tons (-4), a year - on - year decrease of 20.76%. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand is 3.2616 million tons (+20.8), a year - on - year increase of 3.23%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products is 8.4333 million tons (+15.5), a year - on - year increase of 1.87%. [4] Supply - Rebar production is 2.1193 million tons (-6.75), a year - on - year decrease of 3.09%. Hot - rolled coil production is 3.2514 million tons (+10.9), a year - on - year increase of 3.47%. The production of the five major steel products is 8.6724 million tons (-3.41), a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. [4] Inventory - Rebar inventory is 6.5386 million tons (+13.86), a year - on - year increase of 2.17%. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 3.7332 million tons (-1.02), a year - on - year decrease of 0.27%. The inventory of the five major steel products is 15.1461 million tons (+13.91), a year - on - year increase of 0.93%. [4] Market Analysis - For rebar, due to high profits and the operation of electric - arc furnace profits, some mills stopped production, and the decline in rebar production has widened this week. Rebar demand decreased month - on - month, and the peak - season characteristics have not yet appeared. The supply - demand contradiction continues to accumulate, especially in Hangzhou where the inventory pressure is more obvious due to the inflow of external rebar resources. - For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand have returned to the level before the military parade. The downstream sentiment has improved, and the inventory shows a de - stocking trend, with the supply - demand contradiction gradually alleviating. - For the five major steel products, the inventory is still accumulating, but the inventory - building speed has slowed down. The steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradictions are still building up, with the rebar fundamentals being weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is still uncertain about the peak - season demand level. However, since the hot - metal production has returned to a relatively high level before the military parade, the probability of negative feedback is limited. There may be phased replenishment demand before the weekend, which may support the futures prices, but it is expected that the performance of rebar will still be weaker than that of hot - rolled coils. [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. The report mainly focuses on presenting weekly data of coking coal in various regions. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coal Mine Clean Coal Inventory - On September 10, 2025, the total coal mine clean coal inventory was 124.96 million tons, a decrease of 1.45 million tons compared to September 3 [1]. - In different regions, inventory in Shanxi decreased by 2.48 million tons, Shandong by 1.3 million tons, and Inner Mongolia by 0.2 million tons, while Hebei increased by 2.67 million tons and Shaanxi by 0.35 million tons [1]. Coal Mine Capacity Utilization - As of September 10, 2025, the total coal mine capacity utilization was 85.25%, an increase of 4.33 percentage points compared to September 3 [1]. - In different regions, capacity utilization in Shanxi increased by 6.46 percentage points, Shandong by 0.14 percentage points, Inner Mongolia by 0.86 percentage points, while Hebei decreased by 1.96 percentage points and Shaanxi by 2.06 percentage points [1]. Coal Mine Start - up Rate - On September 10, 2025, the total coal mine start - up rate was 89.96%, an increase of 17.47 percentage points compared to September 3 [1]. - The start - up rates in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shaanxi, and other regions remained unchanged, while that in Shanxi increased by 29.41 percentage points [1]. Coal Mine Clean Coal Production - On September 10, 2025, the total coal mine clean coal production was 442.45 million tons, an increase of 23.32 million tons compared to September 3 [1]. - In different regions, production in Shanxi increased by 21.57 million tons, Shandong by 0.12 million tons, Inner Mongolia by 25.85 million tons, Hebei decreased by 0.62 million tons, and Shaanxi increased by 0.2 million tons [1]. Coal Mine Average Profit - As of September 10, 2025, the total coal mine average profit was 404 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton compared to September 3 [1]. - In different regions, the average profit in Shanxi decreased by 14 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia by 12 yuan/ton, Shaanxi increased by 25 yuan/ton, while that in Shandong and Hebei remained unchanged [1]. Coking Plant Coking Coal Available Days - On September 11, 2025, the total coking plant coking coal available days were 6.39 days, a decrease of 0.1 days compared to September 4 [1]. - In different regions, available days in Shanxi decreased by 0.09 days, Shandong by 0.12 days, and Hebei by 0.1 days [1].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Huidian, Tao Cunhui, Xue Yuan, Ran Yumeng, Zhong Hong [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Not explicitly stated in the report, but it presents a comprehensive weekly data analysis of coking coal and coke, including production, inventory, and profit indicators. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke Weekly Data - **247 Steel Mills**: - Daily average hot metal production increased from 228.84 to 240.55, a rise of 11.71 [2] - Coke production rose from 45.72 to 46.6, an increase of 0.88 [2] - Coke inventory increased from 623.71 to 633.29, up 9.58 [2] - Inventory available days decreased from 11.71 to 11.29, a drop of 0.42 [2] - **Full - sample Independent Coking Enterprises**: - Coke production increased from 64.32 to 66.76, a rise of 2.44 [2] - Coke inventory increased from 66.51 to 67.84, up 1.33 [2] - Tonnage coke profit decreased from 64 to 35, a drop of 29 [2] - **Ports**: - Coke inventory increased slightly from 205.06 to 205.11, up 0.05 [2] - **Total Coke Inventory**: - Increased from 895.28 to 906.24, a rise of 10.96 [2] 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Data - **247 Steel Mills**: - Coking coal inventory decreased from 795.76 to 793.73, a drop of 2.03 [3] - Inventory available days decreased from 13.09 to 12.81, a decline of 0.28 [3] - **Full - sample Independent Coking Enterprises**: - Coking coal inventory decreased from 920.05 to 883.54, a drop of 36.51 [3] - Inventory available days decreased from 10.76 to 9.95, a decline of 0.81 [3] - **Ports**: - Imported coking coal inventory decreased from 275.49 to 271.11, a drop of 4.38 [3] - **Ganqimaodu Port**: - Average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal increased from 152,730 to 186,705, a rise of 33,975 [3] - **314 Independent Coal Washing Plants**: - Capacity utilization decreased from 35.58 to 35.42, a drop of 0.16 [3] - Daily average clean coal production increased from 25.24 to 25.61, a rise of 0.37 [3] - Clean coal inventory decreased from 286.15 to 280.6, a drop of 5.55 [3] - **88 Coal Enterprises**: - Capacity utilization increased from 80.92 to 85.25, a rise of 4.33 [3] - Clean coal inventory increased from 123.51 to 124.96, up 1.45 [3] - Raw coal production increased from 817.31 to 861.07, a rise of 43.76 [3] - Raw coal inventory increased from 194.07 to 199.77, up 5.7 [3] - Tonnage coal profit decreased from 416 to 404, a drop of 12 [3] - **Total Coking Coal Inventory**: - Decreased from 2,586.23 to 2,541.38, a drop of 44.845 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, the general sentiment is "oscillating weakly" for the chemical industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The IEA monthly report raised the global crude oil supply increment for 2025 from 2.5 million barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day, and EIA and IEA reports both reaffirmed the market's surplus pattern. The U.S. petroleum total inventory increased by 15 million barrels weekly, and the surplus inventory is spreading to developed economies [2]. - The chemical industry follows raw material fluctuations. The demand peak season characteristics are not obvious. The overall operating rate of the agricultural film industry downstream of plastics is still at a low level, and the polyester and styrene downstream industries have mixed performance in terms of operating rate and inventory [3]. - Investors should approach the chemical industry with an oscillating weakly mindset and wait for the implementation of specific policies to address over - competition in China's petrochemical industry [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. The OPEC monthly report showed a significant increase in OPEC+ production in August, and the IEA monthly report strengthened the global crude oil surplus expectation. The oil price is expected to oscillate weakly, with geopolitical factors causing short - term disturbances [8]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The resistance level of 3,500 for asphalt futures prices is gradually established. The supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the demand is still not optimistic. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. The increase in OPEC+ production, the deterioration of the U.S. employment data, and the decline in fuel oil demand expectations have led to a weakening of high - sulfur fuel oil. Geopolitical upgrades may cause short - term price fluctuations [10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. It faces a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with a low valuation and is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Olefins still have a drag, and methanol futures prices oscillate. There is a contradiction between the inland and port inventories. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdown in the far - month, there may be opportunities for long - position in the far - month [26]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Under the loose supply - demand fundamentals, the futures market runs weakly and stably. The market is waiting for new positive factors [27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: Multiple new plants will be launched around October, which pressures market sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [18]. PX - **Viewpoint**: It oscillates following raw materials and the macro - environment. The price oscillates narrowly, and the fundamentals have limited contradictions [12]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: The sales volume lacks continuous growth, and the enthusiasm for raw material inventory is insufficient. The supply is slightly increasing, and the downstream polyester sales have turned cold again [13]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The demand has not improved significantly, and there is a slight inventory build - up. The cost support is limited, and the downstream demand has not met expectations [20]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: There is limited driving force, and it follows passively. The upstream raw materials oscillate, and the supply - demand drive is weak [22]. PP - **Viewpoint**: As the oil price declines, PP oscillates and falls back. It has reached a low point in June, with support at the previous low. The supply side still has an incremental trend, and the demand is slowly increasing [30]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: PL follows PP's short - term fluctuations. The inventory of propylene enterprises is low, and the short - term macro - end may fluctuate [32]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: As the oil price weakens, plastic oscillates and declines. The oil price is under pressure, and the domestic measures to address over - capacity have limited substantial support. The downstream start - up is slow, and the supply side still has pressure [29]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The port will return to inventory build - up, and the pure benzene price oscillates weakly. The supply surplus risk is increasing, and the market is trading on the expected import increment in October and inventory build - up [14]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The decline has暂缓, and the market oscillates. It has rebounded after a decline, but the medium - term outlook is still bearish. There is still significant inventory pressure in September - October [17]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Weak reality and strong expectation, PVC oscillates. The macro - policy has not been implemented, and the micro - fundamentals are under pressure, but the valuation is not high [34]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price has reached a short - term peak, and the futures market is cautiously weak. The short - term fundamental pressure is increasing, but the decline space is limited considering the far - month alumina production expectation [34]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.35 with a change of 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being 12 with a change of 10 [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis and warehouse receipt situation, for example, the basis of asphalt is 77 with a change of - 13, and the number of warehouse receipts is 64,460 [37]. - **Inter - Variety Spread**: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 222 with a change of 51 [38]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of multiple varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [39][52][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Neutral" rating to the black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "Oscillation" [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the traditional peak season deepens, the failure of the building materials peak season has intensified the differentiation between furnace materials and finished products. Furnace materials are stronger than building materials due to strong real - demand and restocking expectations, and provide cost support for building materials. The intra - sector differentiation and overall price support are expected to remain [7]. - The steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradictions are still accumulating. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is still cautious about the peak - season demand. However, with the restoration of hot metal and pre - National Day restocking demand, it may support the futures prices, but rebar is expected to perform weaker than hot - rolled coils [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron and Steel - **Core Logic**: The spot market trading volume of steel is weak, with rigid - demand purchases at low prices. The trading volume of building steel is weaker than that of hot - rolled coils. Due to shrinking profits, some steel mills have shut down for maintenance. The production of rebar has decreased, and demand has declined, with inventory pressure in Hangzhou. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have returned to pre - parade levels, with improved downstream purchasing sentiment and inventory destocking. The supply of the five major steel products has decreased while demand has increased, and inventory is still accumulating but at a slower pace [8]. - **Outlook**: The steel inventory is moderately high, and fundamental contradictions are accumulating. The fundamentals of rebar are weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is cautious about peak - season demand. However, with the restoration of hot metal and pre - National Day restocking demand, it may support the futures prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar [8]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: Port trading volume has increased. Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports have decreased, mainly due to port maintenance in Brazil, which is expected to have little impact on annual shipments. The hot - metal production has recovered to over 2.4 million tons per day, supporting short - term demand. The port inventory has increased, the berthing inventory has decreased, and the in - plant inventory has slightly replenished, with the total inventory slightly decreasing and the overall inventory at a moderate level [9]. - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore has recovered to a high level, and the in - plant inventory is low. There is an expectation of pre - festival restocking in the middle and late period. The fundamentals are healthy, but the peak - season demand of the finished - product end needs further verification, limiting the upside space of iron ore. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [9]. 3.3 Scrap Steel - **Core Logic**: The supply of scrap steel has slightly decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased slightly, and the factory inventory has slightly decreased, with the available inventory days at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent. The pressure on finished - product prices has led to low EAF profits, but resources are still tight. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [11]. 3.4 Coke - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand of coke have both increased, with daily production reaching a three - month high and total inventory slightly increasing. Although the supply is becoming more relaxed, the current supply - demand contradiction is acceptable. Steel mills still have restocking needs during peak - season production. After the futures market has priced in two rounds of price cuts, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply of coke has recovered more than expected, but the hot - metal production has also recovered rapidly. Steel mills still have restocking needs during peak - season production. After two rounds of price cuts have been priced in the futures market, the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation of downstream steel mills and the hot - metal production during the peak season [12]. 3.5 Coking Coal - **Core Logic**: The supply of coking coal has basically recovered, with domestic coal mines resuming production and high - level imports from Mongolia. The demand for coking coal is high due to the high - level production of coke. However, after the previous restocking, the current procurement is mostly on - demand, and the spot market is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the extent of coal - mine复产 [12]. - **Outlook**: After the parade, coal mines have quickly resumed production and are expected to maintain a stable production rhythm. With the arrival of the downstream demand peak season and high - level coke production, the on - demand restocking will still support the coking coal price [13]. 3.6 Glass - **Core Logic**: The sentiment in the domestic commodity market has weakened, and the fundamental logic has returned as the delivery approaches. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream lacks restocking ability. Although some upstream manufacturers have promoted sales by raising prices, the supply uncertainty has increased due to potential production - line ignitions and possible shutdowns in the Shahe area. The fundamentals are still weak, and the spot price decline may be limited, with a moderately high futures valuation [13]. - **Outlook**: The actual demand is weak, but there are expectations of the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13]. 3.7 Soda Ash - **Core Logic**: The upstream inventory of soda ash has decreased, but the supply is still at a high level. The long - term supply pressure remains due to un - cleared production capacity. The demand for heavy soda ash is stable with a slight increase, while the downstream of light soda ash has weak restocking sentiment. After the resolution of shipping issues, the mid - stream inventory has accumulated, and the downstream's willingness to accept goods is weak [16]. - **Outlook**: The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume has increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [16][20]. 3.8 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Manganese Silicon** - **Core Logic**: A new round of steel procurement has started, and the first - round inquiry price in September has decreased by 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. The fundamentals lack upward drivers, and although the cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price in the short term, the market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic in the long - term [4]. - **Outlook**: The short - term cost and peak - season expectations support the futures price, but there is significant downward pressure on the price in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the decline in raw - material costs [17]. - **Ferrosilicon** - **Core Logic**: The first - round inquiry price in September has decreased by 330 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. The supply has increased, and the demand from the metal - magnesium market is weak. The market supply - demand relationship has hidden concerns [4][18]. - **Outlook**: The stable cost of semi - coke and electricity provides short - term support for the ferrosilicon price. With peak - season expectations, the downward space of the futures price may be limited, but the price center is expected to decline in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On Thursday, precious metal prices remained flat overall, with the market oscillating to gather momentum. The US CPI data announced on Thursday evening met expectations, and the weekly initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, further clearing the obstacles to interest rate cuts. The market did not anticipate a recession. Overnight, the US stock market strengthened again, and the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond exceeded 4%. Gold entered an oscillating accumulation period due to previous anticipatory buying, while silver prices trended slightly stronger [1][4]. - In the short term, dovish expectations still dominate the market, and the center of gravity of gold is expected to maintain an upward trend. The market has fully anticipated a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut this year, but there is still a dispute over the scope of interest rate cuts next year. The report is optimistic about long - term interest rate cuts. The combination of inflationary upside risks and interest rate cuts may push real interest rates further down, which is a real positive for gold fundamentals [4]. - The short - term elasticity of silver is limited, and the weakness of the employment market restrains the overall industrial product elasticity. However, there is no obvious recession expectation yet. The report maintains an expectation of a soft landing for the US fundamentals, and silver prices are expected to follow gold and oscillate upward. The weekly London gold spot price is expected to be in the range of [3500, 3800], and the weekly London silver spot price is expected to be in the range of [39, 45] [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - In August, the US unadjusted CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year (expected 2.9%, previous 2.7%); the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous 0.2%). The unadjusted core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year (expected 3.1%, previous 3.1%); the seasonally adjusted core CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous 0.3%) [2]. - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 263,000, soaring to the highest level in nearly four years, far exceeding the expected 235,000. The four - week average was 240,500. As of the week ending August 30, the number of continued jobless claims was 1.939 million [2]. - Russia's central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves as of the week ending September 5 were $698.5 billion, compared with $685.5 billion in the previous period [2]. - The European Central Bank kept the deposit facility rate at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, all in line with expectations. ECB President Lagarde said that the inflation outlook is more uncertain than usual, and a strong euro may cause inflation to decline more than expected. The economic growth headwinds should subside next year, but higher tariffs, a strong euro, and competition will restrain economic growth [3]. Price Logic - The flat precious metal prices on Thursday were due to the US CPI data meeting expectations and the increase in initial jobless claims, which cleared the way for interest rate cuts. Gold entered an oscillating period after anticipatory buying, and silver trended stronger. The short - term dovish expectations and the long - term optimistic view on interest rate cuts, along with inflation risks, are positive for gold. Silver's short - term elasticity is limited, but it may follow gold's upward trend [1][4][7]. Market Data - On September 11, 2025, the comprehensive index of the China CITIC Futures commodity index was 2227.10, up 0.21%; the commodity 20 index was 2492.81, up 0.20%; the industrial product index was 2235.84, up 0.16% [47]. - The precious metal index on September 11, 2025, was 2894.01, with a daily decline of 0.21%, a 5 - day increase of 1.25%, a 1 - month increase of 6.35%, and a year - to - date increase of 30.81% [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [7] - The investment rating for stock index options is "oscillating" [8] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with a slight downward bias" [9] Core Viewpoints - Stock index futures are affected by overseas AI, leading to domestic computing power fluctuations. The market is event - driven, and the second - round upward space is limited. It is recommended to hold long positions in dividend ETF + IM without additional positions [7] - The volatility of the ChiNext and STAR Market ETF options has rebounded. There are two possible market paths, and the current trend strategy for the volatility of the ChiNext and STAR Market is less stable. It is suggested to continue holding volatility strategies [2][8] - Attention should be paid to the issuance of new treasury bonds. The stock - bond seesaw and fund subscription and redemption may continue to affect the bond market, and caution is recommended for long - term bonds [3][11] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened low and closed high with heavy trading volume. The TMT, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and non - bank finance sectors led the gains. Driven by two logics: OpenAI's agreement with Oracle on computing power procurement and the fermentation of pig production capacity regulation events. The CSI 500, with the largest weight of cyclical stocks, increased its positions by 18,900 lots. It is recommended to hold long positions in dividend ETF + IM [7] Stock Index Options - Affected by the strong market, the trading volume of the option market increased by 57%, and the trading volume of IO increased by 93%. The risk preference rebounded, and the trading was concentrated on buying call options to chase the upward trend. There are two possible market paths, and it is recommended to continue holding volatility strategies [2][8] Treasury Bond Futures - Most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures rose. The central bank's net injection of 794 billion yuan loosened the capital. The market expects the central bank to over - renew the 6 - month repurchase. The stock - bond seesaw affected the bond market, and attention should be paid to the issuance of new 2 - year and 7 - year treasury bonds [3][11] 2. Economic Calendar - It includes economic data such as China's export and import annual rates in August, CPI and PPI annual rates in China and the US in August, and M2 money supply annual rate in China in August [12] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The State Council approves a two - year comprehensive reform pilot on the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions. Ant Group emphasizes the balance between exploring the value of token economy and risk prevention. 32 projects are short - listed for the intelligent elderly - care service robot project. The purchase tax for new energy vehicles will be halved from 2026 to 2027 [13][14] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - It includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data content is not fully provided in the text [15][19][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 11, most equity indices and CGB futures rose. Among commodity futures, slightly more products gained, while SCFIS(Europe) led the declines [11][14]. - The State Council has approved the launch of 10 comprehensive reform pilots for the market - oriented allocation of factors within 2 years from the approval date. MOFCOM will encourage foreign investors to increase investment in the digital sector. Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an will implement a more proactive and effective macro - economic policy. Chairman of the NDRC Zheng Shanjie will focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations [42][43]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 11, most equity indices and CGB futures rose. Among commodity futures, slightly more products gained, with SCFIS(Europe) leading the declines. In China's commodity futures, the top three gainers were silicon metal, coking coal, and Chinese jujube, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), rapeseed, and iron ore. In China's financial futures, all equity indices rose and most CGB Futures increased, but TL fell by 0.1% [11][12][13]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Coking Coal**: On September 11, coking coal rose 2.3% to 1141.5 yuan/ton. The peak season has arrived with strong overall support, and the market is fluctuating. Supply - side coal mines have mostly resumed production, and Mongolian coal customs - clearance remains high. However, downstream procurement is cautious, and the spot market is under pressure [18][21]. - **Woodpulp**: On September 11, woodpulp rose 1.8% to 5016 yuan/ton. Bullish and bearish factors coexist, and price fluctuations are expected. The spot market has weakened, and the patterns of softwood and hardwood pulp are divided. Overall, the weak performance of woodpulp remains unchanged, and the main strategy is to wait and see [27][29]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Iron Ore**: On September 11, iron ore fell 0.8% to 795.5 yuan/ton. The fundamentals are sound, but the peak - season demand in the finished steel segment has not yet been verified, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. Supply has decreased month - on - month, demand has short - term support, and inventory is at a neutral level [35][37]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The State Council has approved the launch of 10 comprehensive reform pilots for the market - oriented allocation of factors within 2 years, covering multiple regions. MOFCOM will promote the orderly expansion of opening - up in digital - related sectors and encourage foreign investment in the digital sector. Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an will implement a more proactive and effective macro - economic policy. Chairman of the NDRC Zheng Shanjie will focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations [42][43].