Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Global styrene start - up is at a low level, with domestic and overseas start - up rates showing different trends and new overseas device maintenance plans [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Domestic Styrene Situation - As of October 23, 2025, the domestic styrene start - up rate was 69.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 1.1 pct. The weekly output was 32.7 tons, a decrease of 1.24 tons from the previous period. One device in the Northeast restarted and one in the South stopped, and the impact of the stopped devices led to a decline in weekly output [3] Overseas Styrene Situation - As of October 27, 2025, the overseas styrene start - up rate was 76.9%, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year decrease of 10.8 pct, at a low level in the past five years. There are new maintenance plans for two devices: TSMC's 160,000 - ton styrene device in Taiwan and Guochiao's 150,000 - ton styrene device, both possibly to be maintained from November to December [3] Global Styrene Situation - As of October 27, 2025, the global styrene start - up rate was 74.4%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 5.3 pct, at a low level [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - IEA indicates that due to production growth in the Americas, the global crude oil market will be in a surplus state this year, and oil prices may decline in the coming days and weeks due to sufficient supply [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to hold a symposium on the involution - style competition in the PTA and bottle - chip industries. PTA's capacity has increased by 3.27%, and the entire industry is in a loss - making situation. The continuous strength of PTA requires a more active supply side [2] - The market is in a complex situation. Crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks, and different energy and chemical products have different trends. For example, asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil may decline under the pressure of falling crude oil prices, while low - sulfur fuel oil may follow the upward trend of crude oil [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Market Situation - The crude oil market is in a state of supply surplus. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders is approaching, and the market is observing the actual reduction in Russian oil production due to US sanctions. The supply of crude oil in tankers has reached a record high since 2016, mainly due to the increasing production in the Americas [1][6] - The PTA and bottle - chip industries are facing involution - style competition. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to hold a symposium to promote the stable operation of the industry. PTA's capacity has increased, and the processing fee has dropped, with the entire industry in a loss - making state. The operation of the benzene - ethylene industry is also not optimistic [2] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - Geopolitical risks have increased, and the actual reduction in supply needs to be observed. Currently, the supply side is in a stage where the expected reduction in Russian oil is difficult to verify. The short - term price support is relatively stable, but it is still difficult to reverse the current surplus pattern. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [6] Asphalt - As crude oil prices fall, asphalt may be under pressure to decline. The increase in OPEC+ production, the reduction of Saudi Arabia's export premium to Asia, and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict, combined with the market's assessment of the situation after the sharp rise in oil prices, may lead to a decline in asphalt futures prices. The supply tension has been relieved, and the high - premium driving force has weakened [7] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - As crude oil prices fall, fuel oil may be under pressure to decline. Although the Palestine - Israel conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate. The demand for fuel oil is still weak, and the trend needs to pay attention to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as new sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States, and the supply and demand situation is complex. It is expected to follow the volatility of crude oil [9] PX - Driven by the rapid rise of PTA, the negotiation and price of PX have increased. The cost - side guidance is limited, and the short - term supply and demand are affected by the PTA industry. It is expected that the price will be volatile and strong in the short term [11] PTA - The anti - involution policy has affected the PTA industry. The reduction in production is a variable, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation. The price has been boosted by the industry's anti - involution sentiment, but the basis is still weak. It is expected that the price will remain warm in the short term [12][13] Short - Fiber - Pay attention to the fermentation of the upstream sentiment. The cost side is supported by the rise of PTA. The short - fiber itself has no inventory pressure. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate warmly with the raw materials [21][22] Bottle - Chip - The anti - involution policy has affected the polyester industry. The price of polyester bottle - chips has been driven up by the rise of upstream raw materials. The market transaction is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the raw materials [23] Pure Benzene - The driving force for the rise is insufficient, and it is expected to operate weakly and volatile. The price of naphtha is strong, and the demand for pure benzene is affected by factors such as the maintenance and production reduction of benzene - ethylene devices [14][15] Benzene - Ethylene - It is expected to operate weakly and volatile. Although it has rebounded recently, the rebound strength is weak, affected by factors such as new device production and weak downstream follow - up. The profit is at a low level, and the idea of shorting on the rebound remains unchanged [16][17] Ethylene Glycol - Driven by the sentiment of related varieties, but the fundamental pressure is large and the elasticity is limited. The supply is gradually recovering to a high level, and the port inventory is difficult to reduce in the short term. It is expected to maintain a low - level range arrangement [18][19] Methanol - With the rebound of olefins, methanol is expected to fluctuate widely. The port inventory is still at a relatively high level, but considering the possible impact of Iran in winter, there is still value in going long at a low level [25][26] Urea - The market sentiment has ebbed, and it is expected to be under continuous pressure. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [26][27] Plastic - As oil prices rebound, but the fundamental support is limited, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply - side support is limited, and the profit support is also limited [29] PP - With a slight increase in maintenance, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The fundamental support is still limited, and attention should be paid to the change and sustainability of maintenance [30] PL - The price difference with PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and it is expected to fluctuate. The market trading atmosphere has improved, and the volatility has increased [31] PVC - With low valuation and weak expectations, it is expected to operate volatile. The macro - level Sino - US tariff issue and the micro - level supply - demand situation affect the price. The idea of shorting on the rebound remains unchanged [32] Caustic Soda - The spot price is stable, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. The long - term supply and demand situation is complex, and it is expected to enter a wide - range fluctuation, with the idea of shorting on the rebound [32][33] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on the inter - period spreads, basis, and inter - variety spreads of various energy and chemical products, which can help investors understand the market trends and price relationships of different varieties [34][35][37] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific data is not fully presented, it is expected to provide more detailed information on the basis and spreads of chemical products such as methanol, urea, and benzene - ethylene, which is helpful for in - depth analysis of the market [38][51][63] 4. Index Situation - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of commodities have different trends. The energy index has a certain increase on October 27, 2025, but shows different trends in different time periods [281][282]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the week ending October 26, the global on - land crude oil inventory decreased slightly, the floating storage inventory increased significantly, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventory declined from a high level. Year - on - year, the inventory pressure remained high. The decrease in on - land inventory was observed in China, Russia, India, and the Middle East [2] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Global Crude Oil Inventory Trends** - The global on - land crude oil inventory decreased slightly, the floating storage inventory increased significantly, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventory declined from a high level [2] - **Regional Inventory Changes** - The decrease in on - land inventory was reflected in China, Russia, India, and the Middle East [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The outlook for stock index futures is oscillating upward, for stock index options is oscillating, and for treasury bond futures is oscillating upward [9][10][11]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is generally optimistic. Stock index futures are boosted by optimistic risk preferences, stock index options show a positive sentiment, and treasury bond futures are expected to see the central bank restart treasury bond trading [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Optimistic risk preferences boost the market. The base spreads, inter - period spreads, and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed. The rise is driven by positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations and overseas technology mapping. The configuration suggests using dividends + IM long positions. The outlook is oscillating upward [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The option market sentiment is optimistic. The trading volume of each option variety has exceeded 10 billion, and the sentiment index has strengthened. Trading should follow the market, and the strategy shifts from selling options to buying options. Suggestions include setting up bull spread combinations or hedging equity positions. The outlook is oscillating [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank will restart treasury bond trading. The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed up. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy has increased, and the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is beneficial to the bond market in the short term. The fourth - quarter mid - to - late bullish trend may start, and the bond market is expected to oscillate upward. Operational suggestions include trend strategies, hedging strategies, basis strategies, and curve strategies [10][12]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On October 27, 2025, China's September industrial enterprise profit rate for large - scale industries reached 21.6% year - on - year (single - month), and the eurozone's September seasonally - adjusted money supply M3 annual rate was 2.8%. On October 29, the US will release the September seasonally - adjusted pending home sales index monthly rate, and on October 30, the US will announce the October federal funds rate target upper limit. On October 31, Japan will release the September unemployment rate, China will release the October official manufacturing PMI, and the eurozone will release the October harmonized CPI annual rate (un - seasonally adjusted preliminary value) [13]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Regulatory Policy**: The CSRC issued the "Several Opinions on Strengthening the Protection of Small and Medium - Sized Investors in the Capital Market", introducing 23 practical measures [14]. - **Sino - US Trade**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, emphasizing the importance of Sino - US relations [14]. - **Northbound Funds**: The CSRC issued the "Work Plan for Optimizing the Qualified Overseas Investor System", aiming to enhance the attractiveness of the system to overseas long - term funds [15]. - **AI**: Qualcomm launched AI chips to compete with NVIDIA in the data center market, with AI200 and AI250 expected to be commercially available in 2026 and 2027 respectively [15]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: No specific data content is provided in the report [16]. - **Stock Index Options Data**: No specific data content is provided in the report [20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: No specific data content is provided in the report [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed performance, with different trends for each commodity. Some commodities are facing downward pressure, while others are in a state of shock or rebound [1][6]. - International and domestic factors, such as trade relations, supply and demand, and macro - economic conditions, have significant impacts on the prices of agricultural products [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, the market showed mixed fluctuations, and there is a high probability of inventory accumulation for Malaysian palm oil in October. - **Logic**: Due to profit - taking, US soybeans and soybean oil fell last Friday. Domestic oils and fats showed mixed fluctuations yesterday, with soybean oil being stronger and palm oil and rapeseed oil being weaker. The US government shutdown affected data updates, and the US soybean harvest is about 80% complete, with a high probability of a decrease in yield. Brazilian new - season soybeans are expected to increase by 3.6% year - on - year. Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.78% from the 1st to the 25th of October, and exports decreased. There is a high probability of inventory accumulation in October [6]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate weakly, while soybean oil will fluctuate. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower technical support [6]. Protein Meals - **View**: Positive signals from China - US relations led to a jump in US soybean prices and pressure on domestic soybean meal. - **Logic**: Internationally, China - US trade relations dominate the market. US soybean new crops are on the market, and Brazilian soybean exports have increased. Domestically, short - term profit margins for soybean crushing are gradually recovering, and the market lacks upward momentum. In the long term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to be sufficient in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a possible small shortage in the first quarter of 2026 [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to fluctuate between 1060 - 1080. The price of soybean meal is under short - term pressure, and the decline depends on China's purchase volume of US soybeans. Consider soybean meal 1 - 5 reverse spreads and option double - buying strategies [7]. Corn and Starch - **View**: The increase in wet corn supply led to a decline in both futures and spot prices. - **Logic**: The current decline in corn prices is due to high arrival volumes. Although there were short - term factors supporting the price last week, such as low inventory of grain - using enterprises and slow harvesting progress, there are still downward drivers in the future, including high yields in the Northeast, low - quality grain pressure in North China, and weak demand in the sales area [9]. - **Outlook**: The market will fluctuate. Hold short positions and pay attention to the profit - taking rhythm. In the long term, consider a near - far month reverse spread strategy [9]. Pigs - **View**: The reduction in supply at the end of the month led to a rebound in pig prices. - **Logic**: In the short term, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in pig prices has suppressed the enthusiasm for second - fattening. In the medium term, the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is starting to decline, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [10]. - **Outlook**: The market will fluctuate. In the near - term, the price is still weak, while in the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Consider reverse spread strategies [10]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The price is consolidating at a high level, waiting for new guidance. - **Logic**: The recent rebound is due to a short - term bottom and relatively low valuation. The slow registration of warehouse receipts has become a focus for bulls. The supply pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to be stable in the fourth quarter. However, due to the large proportion of macro factors, it is difficult to determine the price trend [12]. - **Outlook**: Due to high macro uncertainty, the price is expected to fluctuate and find a bottom [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures market shows signs of weakness. - **Logic**: The decline in the price of raw material butadiene and high production volumes are the main reasons for the weakness. Although downstream demand is increasing, the growth rate is lower than the production growth rate, resulting in high inventory levels [14]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and there is a possibility of hitting a new low this year [14]. Cotton - **View**: Cost support makes the cotton price relatively strong, but pay attention to macro - level disturbances. - **Logic**: In the north of Xinjiang, the cotton purchase is almost finished, while in the south, the purchase price is rising, increasing the processing cost. The new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, and the commercial inventory is starting to accumulate. Pay attention to the progress of China - US economic and trade consultations. The price may face pressure above the range of 13600 - 13800 yuan/ton [14]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, but pay attention to the upper - level pressure [14]. Sugar - **View**: The sugar price is fluctuating at a low level. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, leading to a downward trend in prices. In the short - term, the international market is relatively loose, and the domestic market has a marginal reduction in supply pressure. However, the price may face downward pressure again when the northern hemisphere enters the new sugar supply period [15]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate weakly in the medium - to - long - term. Consider short - selling on rebounds [15]. Pulp - **View**: The financial trading atmosphere has driven up the pulp futures price, but the futures - spot price gap remains. - **Logic**: Although the pulp futures price has rebounded, the spot price has not increased significantly. The demand for softwood pulp is weak, and there is an over - supply situation for hardwood pulp. The futures price is close to the spot price, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium. However, pay attention to the impact of restricted waste pulp imports on the market [16]. - **Outlook**: The market will fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see, as changes in waste pulp may cause market fluctuations [16]. Double - Glued Paper - **View**: More paper mills are stabilizing prices, and the market is trading within a range. - **Logic**: The supply pressure remains due to new production capacity in the South China region. The demand from downstream printing factories is weak, and the decline in the price of upstream wood pulp has limited support for the cost. Although some paper mills are trying to stabilize prices, the market expectation is still pessimistic [17]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral strategies. Pay attention to new factors that may affect market sentiment [17]. Logs - **View**: Negative factors have led to a decline in log prices with reduced positions. - **Logic**: Informationally, the expected cancellation of the special port fee has led to long - position liquidation. Fundamentally, the concentrated arrival of goods at ports and weak sales of related products have put pressure on the spot market. The market is expected to be in a weak state, with a high probability of inventory accumulation in the future [20][21]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term, with a weakening fundamental situation and repeated information - based games [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On October 27, both equity indices and CGB futures rose; slightly more commodity futures rose, with metals performing strongly [2][4][11][14]. - China and the US reached a framework trade agreement during the consultations in Malaysia [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On October 27, equity indices and CGB futures rose, and more commodities rose, with metals performing strongly [11][14]. - The top three gainers in China's commodity futures were poly - silicon, egg, and lithium carbonate, while the top three decliners were Chinese jujube, log, and SCFIS(Europe) [12][13][14]. - In China's financial futures, equity indices rose (IC increased by 1.8%), and CGB futures rose (TL increased by 0.3%) [14]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Poly - Silicon**: On October 27, it increased by 3.8% to 54,500 yuan/ton. The anti - involution policy boosted the price, but the current supply - demand situation is poor, and prices may fluctuate sharply. Supply is expected to shrink in November, and demand in the fourth quarter may weaken [19][20][22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On October 27, it increased by 2.5% to 81,900 yuan/ton. Short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, with forward - looking surplus and immediate supply gap, leading to wide price fluctuations. Supply is increasing slightly, demand is strong, social inventory is decreasing, and warehouse receipts have decreased significantly [27][28][31]. - **Copper**: On October 27, it increased by 1.7% to 88,370 yuan/ton. Supply constraints remain, and supply disruption factors are increasing. Macroeconomic expectations have improved, and prices are expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias. Supply is disrupted, and demand is in the peak season but inventory destocking is slow [35][37][39]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The two sides of China and the US agreed to further finalize specific details of the trade agreement and complete their respective domestic approval procedures [42][45]. - Premier Li Qiang attended the 28th ASEAN Plus Three Summit, met with the President of the European Council António Costa and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, expressing China's willingness to strengthen cooperation and development [42][45][46]. 3.2.2 Industry News - The Work Plan for Optimizing the Qualified Foreign Investor System was officially launched on October 27, including measures to optimize access management, improve investment operation efficiency, and expand the scope of investment [47][48]. - The CSRC will launch the shelf offering system for refinancing at an appropriate time and urge listed companies to improve governance and reward shareholders [47][48]. - The PBOC will resume open market treasury bond trading operations as the bond market operates well on the whole [48][49].

Report Title - "Stock, Bond, and Commodity Markets Mostly Rise, with a Large Decline in the European Container Shipping Route - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20251028" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, assets should be evenly allocated. After the Fed cuts interest rates in the October meeting, progresses in China - US tariff talks, and the release of specific details from the 20th Fourth Plenary Session, both domestic and overseas equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals are expected to benefit. Black commodities with low valuations due to domestic policy improvements also have some rebound opportunities, while precious metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance 1.1 Stock Index Futures - The CSI 300 futures closed at 4684.4, with a daily increase of 1.07%, a weekly increase of 1.07%, a monthly increase of 1.44%, a quarterly increase of 1.44%, and a year - to - date increase of 19.47%. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [2] 1.2 Bond Futures - Bond futures generally rose. For example, the 30 - year bond futures had a daily increase of 0.34%, a weekly increase of 0.34%, a monthly increase of 1.32%, a quarterly increase of 1.32%, but a year - to - date decrease of 2.89% [2] 1.3 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index remained unchanged on the day, with a monthly increase of 1.14% and a year - to - date decrease of 8.79%. The euro - US dollar exchange rate and the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate also had different trends [2] 1.4 Interest Rates - Interest rates showed different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield had a daily increase of 1 bp, a monthly decrease of 0.18 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 53 bp [2] 1.5 Industry Indexes - Industries such as construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals showed varying degrees of increase, while industries such as food and beverage, and electronics showed varying degrees of decline [3] 1.6 Commodities - Commodities had different performance. For example, COMEX gold had a daily decrease of 0.39%, a monthly increase of 6.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 56.36%. The European container shipping route had a daily decrease of 3.06% and a quarterly decrease of 21.36% [3][4] 2. Macro Analysis 2.1 Overseas Macro - The US government shutdown continued this week. The expectation of China - US tariffs eased, and the CPI in September was lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of monetary easing. There are four reasons: the lower - than - expected CPI in September, the continuous government shutdown, the increasing economic downward pressure after the government shutdown, and the easing expectation of China - US tariffs [6] 2.2 Domestic Macro - The communique of the 20th Fourth Plenary Session was released this week, sending positive signals. The economic and financial data in September showed relative resilience. Consumption and investment growth continued to slow down, but the strengthening of policy expectations is expected to boost physical work volume in the fourth quarter [6] 3. Asset Views - In the short - term, maintain a balanced asset allocation. After the Fed cuts interest rates in the October meeting, progresses in China - US tariff talks, and the release of specific details from the 20th Fourth Plenary Session, equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals are expected to benefit. Black commodities with low valuations due to domestic policy improvements also have some rebound opportunities, while precious metals may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [6] 4. Market Outlook for Each Sector 4.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate and rise due to technology - related event catalysts. Stock index options and bond futures are expected to fluctuate [7] 4.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate as geopolitical and trade tensions ease [7] 4.3 Shipping Sector - The European container shipping route is expected to fluctuate as the peak season fades and there is a lack of upward momentum [7] 4.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, are expected to fluctuate due to various factors such as policy disturbances, inventory pressures, and supply - demand relationships [7] 4.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate as they await the clarification of macro - policies [7] 4.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate due to factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand imbalances, and cost changes [9] 4.7 Agricultural Sector - Agricultural products are expected to fluctuate due to factors such as weather, trade relations, and supply - demand changes [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend of precious metals is rated as "oscillating weakly", and the long - term trend remains bullish [1][3] Core Viewpoints - Trade frictions ease, leading to a decline in safe - haven demand and a short - term weakening of precious metal prices. However, the expectation of interest rate cuts still provides support, and trading within the range with strict risk control is recommended [1] - The precious metals have entered a phased adjustment, but the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged due to factors such as debt over - issuance and the decline of the US dollar's credit [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - The US and China reached a "substantive framework" in Kuala Lumpur, and the threat of 100% tariffs on China was lifted; the assessment of rare - earth related controls was postponed [2] - The US CPI in September was lower than expected, leading the market to price in further interest rate cuts this week and this year [2] - Due to the government shutdown, the release of inflation data in October may be delayed, increasing the market's bet on interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction [2] - The US fiscal deficit in Q3 reached $1.55 trillion, a year - on - year increase of about 40%, driving the market's bet on long - term monetary easing [2] - The ECB may consider reducing the emergency bond - buying program this year if external shocks are controllable [2] - Global central banks net - purchased about 38 tons of gold in September, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for the 23rd consecutive month [2] - The Philippine central bank is considering selling part of its "excessive" gold reserves as the demand for safe - haven weakens [2] Price Logic - Gold has started a phased adjustment, with short - term prices being suppressed by the easing of trade tensions. The focus in Q4 is on the December window period. In the long run, gold remains a core asset to hedge against the risk of the US dollar's credit decline [3] - Silver's short - term price movement is in line with that of gold, also entering a phased adjustment. The short - term price is affected by policies and risk sentiment, and the long - term price center will rise with gold [3][6] Outlook - This week, attention should be paid to the signals of the FOMC's interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction, as well as the details of trade negotiations. The weekly price range for London gold is [3950 - 4200], and for London silver is [46 - 52] [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the tight supply - demand situation, lithium carbonate leads the rise of new energy metals. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, with a possible increase in the price center. The lithium ore production capacity is rising, which will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. - For industrial silicon, the warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the silicon price fluctuates. For polysilicon, the supply side is expected to cut production, and the price remains high. For lithium carbonate, the warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the lithium price rises with increased positions [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the silicon price fluctuates [6]. - **Information Analysis**: - The spot prices of oxygen - blown 553 in East China are 9350 yuan/ton, and 421 in East China are 9650 yuan/ton, with small fluctuations [6]. - The latest domestic inventory in Baichuan is 445,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. Market inventory is 183,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and factory inventory is 262,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [6]. - As of September 2025, the monthly domestic industrial silicon production is 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. From January to September, the cumulative production is 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3% [6]. - In September, the export of industrial silicon is 70,233 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export is 561,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [6]. - The newly installed photovoltaic capacity in September is 9.66GW, a year - on - year decrease of 53.76%. From January to September, the cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity reaches 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The dry season in the southwest is coming, and silicon plants in Yunnan and Sichuan are expected to gradually reduce production. Currently, the supply in the northwest is still increasing, and the domestic industrial silicon supply is still in a loose situation. The increase in polysilicon production in October supports the demand for industrial silicon, but the demand will decline in November. The demand for silicone remains weak and stable, and the demand for aluminum alloy increases slightly. In November, industrial silicon is still in a pattern of inventory accumulation, but the continuous decrease of warehouse receipts provides some support to the market [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the continuous decrease of warehouse receipts supports the market, but industrial silicon still faces inventory accumulation. The silicon price is expected to fluctuate [6]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The supply side is expected to cut production, and the polysilicon price remains high [7]. - **Information Analysis**: - According to the data of the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [7]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9,240 lots, a decrease of 180 lots from the previous value [7]. - In September, China's polysilicon export volume is about 2,150 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%. From January to September 2025, the total export volume is 18,667 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30%. In September, the import volume is about 1,292 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.46%. From January to September 2025, the import volume is 14,677 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.26% [7]. - From January to September 2025, the newly installed domestic photovoltaic capacity is 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity is 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [7]. - Relevant policies aim to regulate low - price disorderly competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity. The National Standards Committee plans to revise the comprehensive energy consumption per unit product for polysilicon [7]. - Affected by recent meetings and electricity prices in the wet/dry seasons, some polysilicon bases in the southwest region have started to gradually reduce raw material input, with an expected full shutdown from late October to early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [8]. - **Main Logic**: From August to September, the polysilicon production has recovered to over 130,000 tons, and it is expected to remain high in October. With the arrival of the dry season in November, the supply will shrink. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will limit the supply. The photovoltaic installation growth rate in the first five months was high, but it overdrafted the demand in the second half of the year. The demand for polysilicon in the fourth quarter may continue to weaken. Overall, the current supply - demand situation of polysilicon is under pressure, but it is expected to improve in the dry season, and there are still policy expectations. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts the polysilicon price, but the current supply - demand situation is poor. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the lithium price rises with increased positions [9]. - **Information Analysis**: - On October 27, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 2.99% to 81,900 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 50,618 lots to 862,528 lots [9]. - On October 27, the spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 76,550 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 74,300 yuan/ton. The average price of the spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) is 906 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day. On the same day, the warehouse receipts decreased by 960 lots to 27,739 lots [9]. - On October 27, Dazhong Mining announced that the "Mining Plan for Jada Lithium Mine Mineral Resources" has passed the review of the Ministry of Natural Resources. The annual mining scale is 2.6 million tons/year, and the spodumene mining scale ranks among the top in the industry. After reaching full production, it can produce about 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year [10]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand. Attention should be paid to short - term demand and warehouse receipt changes. The weekly and monthly production of SMM continues to increase slightly, and imported ores will be supplemented in November, so the production is expected to remain high. The market has priced in the fact that Ningde Jianxiawo is unlikely to resume production this year, but relevant news should still be closely monitored. In terms of demand, the apparent demand is strong, and the production schedule in November is still strong, with an expected month - on - month increase. December is crucial. The social inventory continues to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decrease by 6,000 tons in November. The current change in the spot basis is not obvious, but there may be an expectation of strengthening in the future. The price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance. The price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The easing of Sino - US trade concerns and positive macro - expectations have led to a significant strengthening of base metals. In the short and medium term, supply - side disturbances and improved macro - expectations are the main drivers. Copper leads the rise of base metals, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of aluminum ingot price catch - up. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin persist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand, so the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: The restart of Sino - US trade negotiations and the release of the Fourth Plenary Session communiqué have improved market sentiment. Supply disturbances continue to increase, with reduced copper ore supply and higher scrap copper recycling costs. Although it is the peak demand season, high prices have curbed demand. Overall, copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [8][9]. - **Alumina**: There are still fundamental pressures, but the valuation has entered a low - level range. The price is expected to fluctuate. The spot price has shown some declines in different regions [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic and overseas macro - environment is positive. The domestic replacement capacity is being put into production, and there are marginal disturbances in overseas supply. The traditional peak season is ending, and terminal demand is stable. With the copper - aluminum ratio above 4.0, the short - term price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and the medium - term price center may rise [12][13]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. There are small - scale production cuts on the supply side, and demand has marginally improved. The short - term price is expected to remain high and volatile, and the medium - term price is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. - **Zinc**: The macro - environment is optimistic, but the supply is loose in the short term, and the demand is entering the off - season. The short - term price may be volatile at a high level, and there is still room for decline in the long term [18][19]. - **Lead**: There are disturbances in recycled lead supply, and social inventory is at a low level. The current demand is in the peak season, and the supply is slightly less than expected. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 250,000 tons. The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be widely volatile in the short term [22][24]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts are decreasing. Nickel - iron prices are weakening, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand sustainability needs attention. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [25][26]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints are strengthening. In Wa State, production increase may be delayed, and in Indonesia, refined tin supply is expected to tighten. Although the inventory has started to accumulate slightly, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [26][27]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On October 27, 2025, the comprehensive index, special index, and PPI commodity index of CITIC Futures all showed increases. The industrial products index had the highest increase of 0.95% [152]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on October 27, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.55%, a 5 - day increase of 2.41%, a 1 - month increase of 5.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.71% [153].