在金价高位运行、全球不确定性加剧的背景下，黄金行业迎来新的上升周期，但竞争的底层逻辑正在悄 然切换。决定企业能否穿越周期的关键，正从资源禀赋与产量扩张，转向安全、环保、合规与社区关系 等治理能力。在三亚举行的2025中国（三亚）国际黄金市场年会暨黄金行业可持续发展大会上，来自中 国黄金、山东黄金、紫金矿业和山东招金的世界黄金协会四家会员企业代表，围绕可持续发展与行业未 来集中发声，勾勒出黄金行业正在形成的新竞争坐标。 山东黄金：坚持绿色低碳为引领 推动黄金高质量发展 山东黄金集团有限公司党委常委、副总经理肖耀猛在发言中指出，国家多次强调绿色发展已成为高质量 发展的底色，新质生产力本身就是绿色生产力。在矿业领域，绿色低碳转型不再是形象工程，而是关乎 长期运营稳定性与发展韧性的关键路径。 山东黄金集团自2010年伊始便确立了"山东黄金生态矿业""用心守护绿水青山，用爱造福地球家园"等绿 色发展理念，坚持生态优先绿色发展，大力推进绿色矿山建设；"十四五"以来，集团环保减排投入年均 增长20%以上，环境污染防控水平和环境风险防范能力得到不断提升；坚持山水林田湖草沙一体化保护 和系统治理，全面打造"三季有花、四季常绿" ...

麦格理发布研报称，对金价持正面看法，并认为山东黄金（600547）(01787)将受惠于金价上升及产能 增长。公司今年第三季业绩因6.25亿元人民币的公允价值变动而表现疲弱，但该行相信此属一次性影 响，不会对公司盈利构成持续压力。该行调整公司2025至27年的盈利预测，分别下调18%、上调42%及 上调39%，以反映今年利润率下降及减值影响，以及2026及27年金价预期提高; 目标价上调至43港元， 维持"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report is positive on gold prices, with expectations that Shandong Gold (01787) will benefit from rising gold prices and capacity growth [1] - The company's Q3 performance was weak due to a one-time fair value change of 625 million RMB, but this is believed to be a non-recurring impact that will not exert ongoing pressure on profitability [1] - The earnings forecasts for the company for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted, with a decrease of 18% for 2025, an increase of 42% for 2026, and an increase of 39% for 2027, reflecting this year's margin decline and impairment impacts, as well as higher gold price expectations for 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 2 - The target price for Shandong Gold has been raised to 43 HKD, while maintaining an "outperform" rating [1]

Group 1 - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) has seen a strong increase of 3.56%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Silver and Nonferrous Metals up by 10.04% and China Gold International up by 7.65% [1] - The gold stock ETF (517520) has risen by 3.42%, with a current price of 2.06 yuan, and has increased over 87% since the beginning of 2025 [1] - The U.S. November CPI was reported at 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1%, leading to increased expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Kevin Hassett, a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, stated that U.S. core inflation is "at or below target levels," providing ample space for potential interest rate cuts [2] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that declining U.S. interest rates have prompted ETF investors to compete with central banks for limited gold resources, with structural high demand from central banks and cyclical support from Fed rate cuts expected to drive gold prices higher [2] - Industrial performance in the gold mining sector has been strong, with several companies reporting profits exceeding market expectations, and the SSH gold stock index showing that 7 out of the top 10 weighted stocks had a net profit growth rate exceeding 50% [3] Group 3 - The gold stock ETF (517520) aims to track the largest stocks in the gold industry, sharing in the sector's growth while mitigating risks associated with individual stock investments [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the gold industry index account for 68.26% of the index, with companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold among the leaders [3]

Group 1 - The core view of the report is positive on gold prices, with expectations that Shandong Gold will benefit from rising gold prices and capacity growth [1] - The company's Q3 performance was weak due to a fair value change of 625 million, but this is considered a one-time impact that will not exert ongoing pressure on profitability [1] - The target price for Shandong Gold has been raised to HKD 43, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] Group 2 - The earnings forecasts for the company for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted, with a decrease of 18% for 2025, and increases of 42% and 39% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [1] - The adjustments reflect a decline in profit margins and impairment impacts for the current year, as well as an increase in gold price expectations for 2026 and 2027 [1]

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 证券分析师 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 22 日 美国通胀降温助推降息预期，金属 板块景气持续 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251215-20251219 究 报 告 相关研究 - 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.03%，深证成指下跌 0.89%，沪深 300 下跌 0.28%，有色金属 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the spot gold price has surged, breaking its previous record and achieving a year-to-date increase of over 65% due to multiple factors including central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and market re-evaluations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle [1] Group 2 - The spot gold price reached a new high of $4,381.484, surpassing the previous record set on October 20 [1] - The China Securities Index for gold industry stocks (931238) rose by 3.40%, with significant increases in individual stocks such as Silver and Nonferrous (up 9.85%) and China National Gold (up 7.12%) [1] - The gold stock ETF fund (159322) increased by 3.35%, with a latest price of 1.67 yuan [1] Group 3 - The gold stock ETF fund experienced a turnover of 6.5% and a transaction volume of 6.8171 million yuan [2] - The fund's scale grew by 520.98 million yuan over the past two weeks [2] - The index reflects the performance of 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales, with the top ten stocks accounting for 68.26% of the index [2] Group 4 - The top ten weighted stocks in the gold industry index include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Zhongjin Gold, with Zijin Mining holding the highest weight at 13.06% [3]

Group 1 - Hong Kong gold stocks experienced a strong rebound, with Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) rising over 7% [1] - China Gold International (02099.HK) saw an increase of more than 6% [1] - Other stocks such as Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK), Shandong Gold (01787.HK), and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) also followed the upward trend [1]

每经AI快讯，12月22日，现货黄金再创历史新高，港股黄金股震荡走强，灵宝黄金、中国黄金国际涨 超7%，山东黄金、赤峰黄金涨近5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the market have provided investors with opportunities to strategically position themselves for the upcoming "cross-year" market trends, particularly focusing on growth and dividend styles [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 22, 2025, the Shanghai 180 Index (000010) increased by 0.65%, with notable gains from stocks such as Tuojing Technology (688072) up by 6.39%, China Duty Free Group (601888) up by 6.27%, and Zijin Mining (601899) up by 4.95% [1]. - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund (530280) rose by 0.58%, with the latest price reported at 1.21 yuan [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) suggests focusing on three main investment themes: 1. **Growth in AI Technology**: The AI sector is expected to transition into industrial applications, with opportunities in computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, particularly favoring domestic companies. Applications to watch include robotics, consumer electronics, smart driving, and software [2]. 2. **External Demand**: Companies with overseas expansion strategies are seen as reliable growth opportunities, particularly in sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, commercial buses, power grid equipment, gaming, and non-ferrous metals [2]. 3. **Cyclical Reversal**: Attention is recommended on sectors nearing improvement in supply-demand dynamics or benefiting from policy support, such as chemicals, aquaculture, and new energy [2]. Group 3: Seasonal Trends and Market Catalysts - According to Huatai Securities, the upcoming spring market is anticipated to show positive momentum, driven by potential catalysts such as foreign capital position adjustments post-Christmas, the dense disclosure period for annual reports starting mid-January, and possible reserve requirement ratio cuts in January [3]. - The Shanghai 180 ETF closely tracks the Shanghai 180 Index, which comprises 180 large-cap, liquid stocks from the Shanghai market, reflecting the overall performance of core listed companies [3].