人民财讯11月26日电，银河证券发布建材行业2026年度策略报告称，2025年度建材指数及基本面均呈修 复态势，细分板块表现分化。展望2026年，传统产业去产能+新兴产业高景气，建材行业机遇分化。在 政策调控加码、新兴赛道高景气延续等多因素催化下，建材行业结构性投资机会进一步凸显：1."反内 卷"政策继续推进，加快重塑水泥、玻璃等传统建材市场良性竞争秩序，供需格局向好预期增强，行业 盈利有望逐步修复；2.新能源、电子、算力等新兴产业继续发力，高性能玻纤前景广阔，具备技术壁垒 与生产能力的龙头企业将充分享受赛道增长红利；3.地产存量时代叠加新型城镇化推进，存量房翻新、 城市旧改等需求释放，具备渠道布局、品牌及产品品质优势的消费建材龙头企业有望受益。 ...

Group 1: Oil and Chemical Industry Outlook - China Galaxy Securities forecasts Brent crude oil prices to range between $60-70 per barrel by 2026, with costs expected to stabilize [1] - The chemical industry is experiencing negative capital expenditure growth since 2024, with supply expected to contract due to the "anti-involution" trend and accelerated elimination of outdated overseas capacity [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" draft emphasizes expanding domestic demand, combined with the onset of the US interest rate cut cycle, which is expected to open up demand for chemical products [1] - A dual bottom in supply and demand is anticipated, with strong policy expectations catalyzing a potential cyclical upturn in the chemical industry by 2026, leading to a "Davis Double Play" from valuation recovery to earnings growth [1] Group 2: Specific Chemical Sector Recommendations - PTA industry is operating at low levels, with increasing calls for anti-involution; recommended companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Xinfon Ming, and Tongkun [1] - Polyester filament capacity is becoming concentrated, with industry self-discipline enhancing cyclical elasticity; recommended companies include Xinfon Ming, Tongkun, and Hengyi Petrochemical [1] - The spandex industry is expected to see increased concentration; recommended companies include Huafeng Chemical and Xinxiang Chemical Fiber [1] - Global demand for pesticides is improving, with bottom-priced varieties likely to rebound; recommended companies include Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Shares, Jiangshan Shares, Guangxin Shares, and Lier Chemical [1] - Organic silicon capacity expansion is nearing completion, with supply-demand dynamics expected to improve; recommended companies include Hesheng Silicon Industry, Xin'an Shares, and Dongyue Silicon Material [1] - The titanium dioxide industry is facing challenges and opportunities; recommended company is Longbai Group [1] - Refining capacity is being optimized, with a shift from oil to chemicals enhancing effective supply; recommended companies include Sinopec, PetroChina, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Hengli Petrochemical [1] Group 3: Demand-Supported Chemical Sectors - Strong pricing power from suppliers is expected to sustain high demand for potash fertilizers; recommended companies include Yara International and Dongfang Iron Tower [2] - Phosphate supply and demand remain tight, benefiting resource-based companies; recommended companies include Batian Shares, Yuntianhua, Xingfa Group, and Chuanheng Shares [2] - Strict quota policies are expected to sustain high demand for refrigerants; recommended companies include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. [2] - Amino acids are expected to maintain their upward trend, with overseas capacity gradually exiting; recommended companies include New Hope Liuhe, Andisu, and Meihua Biological Technology [2] - The chlorinated sugar market is anticipated to see anti-involution, with significant potential for allulose; recommended companies include Jinhui Industrial, Bailong Chuangyuan, and Baolingbao Biology [2] - Vitamins are leading the current round of chemical price increases, entering the second phase; recommended companies include New Hope Liuhe and Zhejiang Medicine [2] - The EU's preliminary anti-dumping ruling is expected to reassess the value of overseas tires; recommended companies include Sailun Tire and Senqilin [2] - The civil explosives industry is developing steadily, with policy guidance likely accelerating industry consolidation; recommended companies include Guangdong Hongda, Yipuli, and Jiangnan Chemical [2] Group 4: New Materials and Technologies - Lightweight humanoid robots may benefit from PEEK as a key solution; recommended companies include Zhongyan Shares, Water Shares, and Guoen Shares [3] - AI is driving global demand for computing power, with electronic-grade PPO expected to grow; recommended companies include Shengquan Group and Dongcai Technology [3] - The domestic substitution of core chip materials, particularly photoresists, is accelerating; recommended companies include Wanrun Shares and Dinglong Shares [3]

Core Viewpoint - The media and internet industry growth is driven by performance and AI empowerment, with a focus on increasing AI investments and the production of quality content [1] Group 1: 2025 Media Market Review - The media sector experienced significant index growth driven by elastic sectors, with a year-to-date increase of 26.0% compared to the 17.6% increase of the CSI 300 index as of November 14, 2025 [2] - The gaming sector saw a remarkable year-to-date increase of 57.2%, fueled by new product cycles [2] Group 2: Hong Kong Internet Sector - Major internet companies in Hong Kong have shown steady growth since 2025, with increased investments in AI reflecting strategic priorities in AI infrastructure, model development, and scenario implementation [3] - The combination of technological accumulation, data resources, and user ecosystems is expected to create a positive development loop in technology and scenario expansion [3] Group 3: Gaming & Film Industry - The production of high-quality content is essential for the gaming and film sectors, with a notable increase in quality works since 2025, leading to long-term value growth for related companies [4] - Domestic games and films have achieved significant success in overseas markets, with AI technology applications continuously explored within the industry [4] - Recommended companies include Tencent, Alibaba, Bilibili, Kuaishou, and others involved in AI applications and content production [4]

Core Insights - The article indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates until 2026, with relatively stable China-U.S. relations, although geopolitical risks remain [1] - China's macroeconomic policies are anticipated to maintain continuity, with strong economic growth resilience driven by domestic demand expansion and anti-involution policies, leading to a rebound in inflation [1] - The A-share market is expected to improve in liquidity, with reasonable valuations and potential profit growth, particularly in emerging industries and China's economic transformation [1] Economic Outlook - The domestic economy may be in a recovery phase, with ongoing narratives around artificial intelligence supporting market optimism [1] - The market is expected to have support for continued positive performance, suggesting a focus on broad-based indices [1] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to prioritize investments in representative broad-based indices, specifically the CSI A500 ETF (159338) and the SSE Composite Index ETF (510760), which may better withstand higher market volatility in the near term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is expected to see structural opportunities by 2026, driven by policies and market conditions, with three main growth engines: new energy, electronics, and computing power [1] Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The construction materials index and fundamentals showed signs of recovery, with the SW construction materials index increasing by 21.37% from the beginning of the year to November 12, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.30 percentage points [2] - Sub-industry performance was mixed, with the fiberglass manufacturing sector leading gains due to the AI computing power boom [2] - Despite a slight revenue decline of 5.74% year-on-year, the industry saw a significant profit improvement, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 21.46% [2] 2026 Outlook - Structural investment opportunities in the construction materials industry are expected to emerge due to intensified policy regulation and sustained high demand in emerging sectors [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to reshape the competitive landscape in traditional materials like cement and glass, improving supply-demand dynamics and gradually restoring industry profitability [3] - The growth of new energy, electronics, and computing sectors will benefit leading companies with technological barriers and production capabilities, particularly in high-performance fiberglass [3] - The demand for renovation and urban renewal in the real estate sector will favor consumer building material leaders with strong channel layouts, brands, and product quality [3] Sub-industry Outlook - **Cement**: Supply regulation effects are expected to improve profitability, with major projects supporting future demand and leading companies expanding into overseas markets [4] - **Fiberglass**: Continued high demand from the wind power and electric vehicle sectors is expected to support sales, with AI computing needs driving fiberglass demand [4] - **Consumer Building Materials**: Urban renewal is likely to boost demand for renovation and repair, while consumption upgrades will increase the demand for high-quality green materials [4] - **Glass**: Prices remain under pressure, but the "anti-involution" policy may help ease supply-demand imbalances [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three investment themes: 1. Traditional building materials benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, with recommended companies including Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement, and Conch Cement [4] 2. Emerging sectors with sustained high demand, recommending companies like China Jushi and China National Building Material [4] 3. Consumer building material leaders with strong retail channel layouts, recommending companies such as Oriental Yuhong, Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, Sankeshu, and Tubao [4]

智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，关注科技创新引领导向带来的超预期，四大子板块投资 方向。该行认为新兴产业以及未来AI赋能产业的发展将会是"十五五"期间的重要议题，细化至通信行业 主要体现于算力AI产业链边际改善，卫星互联网 量子科技方兴未艾，表现在运营商、光通信、卫星互 联网及量子科技等方面。 投资建议 （1）运营商：低估值高股息，运营商盈利能力、现金流资产不断改善，资产价值优势凸显，持续增加 分红回馈股东，"十五五"期间内第二增长曲线明晰； （2）光通信：云厂商AI资本开支增长，带动PCB、GPU、光通信及铜缆等相关产业链的蓬勃发展，预 计"十五五"期间国产替代及产业升级将持续深化； （3）卫星互联网：随着商业火箭发展逐步成熟，以及政府资本开支的增加、单星价值量的逐步降低， 2026年开始商业航天卫星互联网发展大周期或将展开； （4）量子科技：伴随我国空天一体化通信的建设，量子信息行业呈现高成长性，量子科技市场规模有 望持续攀升，"十五五"期间应用场景将进一步拓展。 风险提示：国际形势不确定性的风险；算力行业竞争加剧的风险；卫星产业链发展进度不及预期的风 险：量子科技及应用发展不及预期的风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The light industry in China is expected to benefit from favorable policies since 2025, providing solid support for healthy industry development. The home furnishing sector is particularly focused on the catalytic effect of national subsidies on company performance, while the overall industry demand is under pressure during the downturn cycle, leading to historically low valuations, although there are investment opportunities in specific segments [1]. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector has been impacted by the reduction of national subsidies in Q3, resulting in overall performance pressure. However, the soft home furnishing industry shows greater resilience compared to custom home furnishing. Looking ahead, the return of national subsidies in Q4 is expected to further stimulate downstream demand [2]. - Custom home furnishing companies are actively seeking self-rescue strategies amid demand pressure, while the soft home furnishing sector is accelerating AI product development, with the smart mattress market projected to reach nearly 60 billion yuan by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2020 to 2030 [2]. Packaging - The competitive landscape in the packaging industry is improving, with the acquisition of COFCO Packaging by Orijin leading to a near 80% market share among the top three players in the two-piece can packaging sector. Historical data shows that after the last round of industry consolidation (2017-2019), the industry's gross profit margin rebounded to over 10% [3]. - The industry is expected to see a recovery in average prices by 2026, which will enhance the profitability of leading companies. In the flexible packaging segment, leading companies are expanding their client base and diversifying their business to include higher-margin products, thus creating a second growth curve [3]. Toys - The toy market in China is projected to reach 165.5 billion yuan by 2028, capturing 16.7% of the global toy market share. The rise of Generation Z and the growing "self-pleasure" culture are driving the expansion of artistic IPs, such as the Pop Mart The Monster series, which are gaining international influence [4]. - In the first half of 2025, overseas revenues for Pop Mart and Blokus increased by 440% and 895% year-on-year, respectively, with strong performance in Southeast Asian markets, indicating a rapid acceleration in cultural export and new opportunities in the trendy toy industry [4].

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage industry is expected to perform weakly in 2025, primarily due to the adjustment in the liquor sector, while the recovery trend for consumer staples remains unchanged [1][2]. Group 1: 2025 Review - The food and beverage sector's revenue increased by only 0.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, while profits decreased by 14.6%, underperforming compared to the previous year [2]. - The main factor for the weak performance is the adjustment cycle in the liquor sector, although the long-term recovery trend for consumer staples persists [2]. - The internal rhythm of the sector shows that new consumption led in the first half of the year, while traditional consumption is expected to recover in the second half, particularly in frozen foods [2]. Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The food and beverage industry is anticipated to continue presenting structural opportunities in 2026, with new consumption remaining sustainable but experiencing internal rotation [3]. - Traditional consumption is expected to improve as supply gradually clears, with potential recovery in sectors like dairy and frozen foods [3]. - The company predicts that new consumption will see internal rotation, with a shift in channel strategies and the emergence of new product categories, such as health foods and convenient foods [3]. Group 3: Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is expected to remain in an adjustment phase in 2026, gradually entering a bottoming stage with narrowing declines in sales and prices [4]. - Since Q3 2025, supply has accelerated clearance, with only a few leading brands, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, achieving positive growth [4]. - Historical patterns suggest that after a significant decline, stock prices may begin to recover as market expectations stabilize and funding conditions improve [4]. Group 4: Consumer Staples - The consumer staples sector is projected to maintain a long-term recovery trend, with new and traditional consumption rotating to drive positive index returns [5]. - Structural opportunities remain in 2026, particularly in new channels and product categories, with a focus on snack retail and health-oriented products [5]. - The gradual clearing of supply in traditional consumption is expected to enhance demand and support sector recovery [5].

中国银河证券表示，预计白酒行业仍处于调整周期，但逐渐步入筑底阶段。2025年白酒行业深度调整， 25年三季度以来供给端加速出清，头部品牌中仅茅台与汾酒实现正增长。展望2026年，我们预计行业仍 处于调整期，但逐渐步入筑底阶段，即动销与批价跌幅收窄+报表端继续出清，股票长期价值凸显。参 考上一轮调整期（2012-2015年）：第一阶段动销与批价加速下跌，酒企报表端开始出清，股价与估值 大幅下跌；第二阶段动销与批价跌幅收窄，酒企报表端持续出清，但此时市场预期已经较为充分，随着 资金面不断改善，股价在低估值背景下开始修复。 ...

Group 1: Event Overview - The 15th National Games concluded in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, showcasing the vitality of Chinese athletes and promoting regional development through sports [1] - The event generated a market development income of 1.84 billion yuan, with Guangzhou and Shenzhen receiving a total of 18.05 million visitors, leading to tourism consumption growth of 15.33% and 24.48% respectively [1] - A total of 14,252 professional athletes and approximately 11,000 fitness enthusiasts participated in various competitions, emphasizing the concept of "National Fitness" [1] Group 2: Economic Impact of Sports Events - Major sports events serve as powerful levers for sports consumption, attracting significant audience attention and creating strategic partnerships between sponsors and events [2] - The sponsorship scale for the recent National Games reached a record high of nearly 1.65 billion yuan, with 40 brands from the Greater Bay Area participating, indicating strong market recognition of the event's commercial value [2] - The "1 yuan ticket leading to 7.3 yuan in surrounding consumption" effect from the "Su Super" league illustrates the substantial multiplier effect and consumption-driving capability of sports events [2] Group 3: Urban Development and Infrastructure - Top-tier sports events act as a "super hub" connecting various stakeholders, leading to significant urban development and infrastructure upgrades [3] - Events enhance city image and cultural promotion, increasing the city's visibility and influence [3] - The influence of major events stimulates public participation in sports, driving demand for sports equipment, training, and venue rentals, thus activating the sports consumption market [3] Group 4: Sports Industry Growth - The sports industry is projected to exceed 7 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by the transformation of sports consumption and the development of a modern sports industry system [5][6] - The market size of China's sports industry grew from 1.71 trillion yuan in 2015 to 3.89 trillion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.56% [6] - The number of registered sports-related enterprises has surged, with 4.73 million new registrations in 2023 alone, reflecting the rapid growth of the sector [6] Group 5: Emerging Sports and Consumer Trends - New sports such as road running and ice sports are becoming integral to daily life, with road running event participants' annual consumption projected to reach 16.8 billion yuan in 2024, a 26% increase from 2023 [7] - The ice and snow industry is expected to surpass 1 trillion yuan, driven by the goal of engaging 300 million people in ice and snow sports [7] - The sports goods market, particularly in footwear and fitness equipment, is also experiencing significant growth, with the sports footwear market projected to reach 598.9 billion yuan by 2025 [8]