Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting an "Overweight" rating for the sector, indicating expected performance above the market average [36]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the supply of coal is tightening due to stricter safety and environmental regulations, which is expected to support price increases in the future [3][8]. - It notes that the demand for thermal coal is anticipated to rise during the winter heating season, further driving prices upward after adjustments [3][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term contracts for coal supply, as mandated by the National Development and Reform Commission, to ensure stable energy supply [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for signing long-term coal supply contracts, requiring power generation companies to secure at least 80% of their coal needs based on projected consumption [8]. - A new coal-to-natural gas project in Xinjiang has commenced, focusing on green development in the coal chemical sector [5]. 2. Domestic Thermal Coal Prices - As of November 21, thermal coal prices have shown stability with slight increases in certain regions, such as a rise of 5 CNY/ton in Datong [9]. - The overall thermal coal price index remains stable, with the Qinhuangdao port price holding steady at 710 CNY/ton [9]. 3. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have decreased to 62.56 USD/barrel, reflecting a drop of 2.84% [16]. - The report notes a rising ratio of international oil prices to coal prices, indicating potential implications for coal pricing dynamics [16]. 4. Inventory Levels in the Bohai Rim - Coal inventory levels in the Bohai Rim have increased, with average daily coal inflow rising by 4.49% week-on-week [19]. - The total coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports reached 25.983 million tons, up 6.94% from the previous week [19]. 5. Domestic Coastal Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates have decreased to 47.27 CNY/ton, a decline of 8.25% [27]. - In contrast, international freight rates have seen slight increases, with Indonesian coal freight rates rising by 0.4% [27]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting metrics such as EPS and PE ratios for companies like China Shenhua and Shanxi Coal [31].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the agricultural sector, particularly highlighting the need to focus on capacity reduction in the pig farming industry due to ongoing losses and low prices [1][2]. Core Insights - The agricultural index fell by 3.4% this week, with significant individual stock movements, including a notable increase in companies like Zhongshui Fishery (61.0%) and Quanyin High-Tech (27.4%) [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing losses in pig farming due to low prices, suggesting that the industry is entering a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, which may present left-side investment opportunities [1][2]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, indicating growth potential for leading companies in this space [1][2]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.61 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.43% but a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous week [1]. - Losses for self-breeding sow enterprises have increased, with losses reported at 96.61 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 24.66 yuan [1]. - The report anticipates continued pressure on pig supply through Q4 2025 and into H1 2026, with prices likely to remain low [1]. Pet Food - October data shows a decline in China's pet food exports, with a total export value of 772 million yuan (approximately 109 million USD), down 15.8% year-on-year [1]. - Despite short-term challenges due to trade friction, the domestic pet food market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a focus on leading brands [1][2]. Chicken Farming - The report highlights stable prices for white feather broiler chicks and chicken meat, with the average price for chicks at 3.35 yuan each and for chicken meat at 3.50 yuan/kg [1]. - The supply of broilers is expected to remain ample, but improvements in demand due to economic recovery could lead to a rebound in industry profitability [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The chemical sector is expected to experience a turning point with the establishment of synergies between the silicone and caprolactam industries, leading to an upward trend in market conditions and accelerated de-involution [1] - The report highlights the importance of voluntary emission reductions and carbon cuts, with companies planning to maintain a 70% operating rate and adjust production based on market conditions [1] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xingfa Group, Luxi Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Materials, and Xin'an Chemical for potential investment opportunities in the silicone sector [1] - In the caprolactam sector, the report recommends monitoring Luxi Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Juhua for their potential to drive profitability recovery [1] Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgments indicate that oil prices are expected to remain in a relatively loose range, with Brent crude projected between $55-70 per barrel due to delayed OPEC+ production increases and stable demand recovery [2][3] - The report notes that the PPI for all industrial products decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the first rise of the year [3] - The manufacturing PMI recorded 49.0 in October, indicating a slowdown in production activities due to various factors, including pre-holiday demand release and a more complex international environment [3] Chemical Sector Configuration - The report suggests a diversified investment strategy across four main chains: textile and apparel, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemicals, and sectors benefiting from de-involution policies [1] - Specific recommendations include focusing on nylon and caprolactam with companies like Luxi Chemical, and on fertilizers with companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Yuntianhua [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key materials for growth, particularly in semiconductor materials, OLED panel materials, and lithium battery materials [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [40]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the supply of coal is tightening, with expectations for coal prices to rise after adjustments due to seasonal demand and regulatory pressures [3][5]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal prices, which have shown stability with slight increases in certain categories, particularly thermal coal [10][14]. - The report suggests that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rebound during the winter heating season, which will likely support price increases [3][10]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for long-term coal supply contracts for 2026, emphasizing the need for power companies to secure contracts based on actual coal demand [9]. - A new joint venture in Xinjiang aims to focus on green development in the coal chemical sector, indicating a shift towards sustainable practices [5][9]. Price Trends - As of November 21, thermal coal prices at major production sites have remained stable, with slight increases noted in specific regions [10][11]. - The report indicates that international coal prices have also shown stability, with some fluctuations depending on the region [11][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes an increase in daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports, while outflow has decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [22]. - Coal inventories at major ports have risen, suggesting a potential buildup ahead of increased winter demand [22]. Shipping Costs - Domestic shipping costs have decreased, while international shipping rates have seen slight increases, reflecting varying market conditions [30]. Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections, indicating a range of investment opportunities [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing decline in pig prices leading to increased losses in breeding, with a focus on accelerated capacity reduction. The supply pressure for fat pigs remains significant, and the seasonal price increase is not materializing, which may further accelerate capacity reduction in the industry [2][3]. - The pet food sector showed strong sales performance during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, with recommendations to focus on leading companies with growth certainty. The core brands of listed companies performed well during the promotional period, and the logic of increasing market share continues to be validated [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the pig breeding industry, suggesting that the downward cycle is nearing its end, with a potential upward turning point expected in 2026. The report also notes that the pet economy remains a core growth area, with expectations for continued market share growth among leading companies [2][3]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index fell by 3.4%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 3.8%. The top five gainers included Zhongshui Fishery (61.0%), Quanyin High-Tech (27.4%), and Guolian Aquatic Products (22.5%) [3][10]. Pig Breeding - The report indicates a decline in breeding enthusiasm due to rising costs and high utilization rates of existing facilities. The average selling price of pigs was reported at 11.61 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.43% but a decrease of 2.11% compared to the previous week. Losses for self-breeding sow enterprises reached 96.61 yuan per head, a week-on-week increase of 24.66 yuan [2][3][11]. Pet Food - October data showed a decline in both the export value and volume of pet food from China, with a total export value of 772 million yuan (approximately 109 million USD), reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.8%. Despite this, the domestic pet food market is viewed as a high-certainty growth area, with strong sales during the "Double Eleven" event [2][3]. Chicken Breeding - The report notes that the prices of white feather broiler chicks and chicken meat have remained stable, with the average selling price of broiler chicks at 3.35 yuan per chick. The supply of white feather chickens is expected to remain ample in 2025, with potential demand recovery in 2026 [2][3].

Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of November 21, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) with a PE of 20.6x and a PB of 1.7x, positioned at the 74th and 36th historical percentiles respectively [2][5] - The Shanghai 50 Index has a PE of 11.9x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 64th and 43rd percentiles [2][5] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 37.7x and a PB of 4.9x, at the 27th and 51st percentiles, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical data [2][5] - The STAR 50 Index shows a significantly high PE of 145.1x and a PB of 5.7x, at the 95th and 60th percentiles, suggesting extreme valuation levels [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services (Software Development) [2][7] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2][7] - The Medical Services industry is noted for having both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile, indicating potential undervaluation [2][7] Industry Sentiment Tracking New Energy - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a decline in spot prices, with upstream polysilicon futures prices increasing by 7.8%, while the average price of silicon wafers decreased by 0.9% [2][3] - Battery materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate have seen a significant price increase of 15.4%, with a cumulative rise of nearly 180% over the past quarter [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar increased by 0.6%, while cement prices have stabilized with a 0.4% increase in the national cement price index [2][3] - Glass prices have shown volatility, with a 3.9% decrease in spot prices, indicating a challenging market environment [2][3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs has decreased by 0.8%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the agricultural sector [2][3] - The aviation sector has shown recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% in passenger turnover for October 2025 [2][3] Technology and TMT - The domestic integrated circuit and optoelectronic device production increased by 10.2% year-on-year from January to October 2025, indicating growth in the technology sector [2][3] - The export value of optical communication modules has decreased by 16.9%, reflecting challenges in the international market [2][3] Commodities - The price of Brent crude oil has decreased by 2.8%, closing at $62.51 per barrel, indicating fluctuations in the energy market [2][3] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 7.1%, suggesting a rise in shipping demand [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis this period but are expected to increase significantly next period. The issuance/net financing of local government bonds this period (2025.11.17 - 2025.11.23) was 184.659 billion yuan/126.343 billion yuan, while the forecast for next period (2025.11.24 - 2025.11.30) is 351.461 billion yuan/326.313 billion yuan [2]. - The issuance of new local government bonds slowed down this period but is expected to speed up significantly next period. As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 90.3% and 95.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to reach 91.4% and 100.7% considering the forecast for next period [2]. - The spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds for 10 - year and 30 - year terms narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis. As of November 21, 2025, the spreads for 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 14.34BP and 18.24BP respectively, narrowing by 1.26BP and 3.95BP compared to November 14, 2025. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds was 0.80%, up from 0.71% in the previous period [2]. - The spreads between 15/20/30 - year, especially 15 - year, local government bonds and treasury bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Local Government Bond Issuance and Net Financing - This period's issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased compared to the previous period, and are expected to increase next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.30 years, longer than 13.90 years in the previous period [2]. - As of November 21, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of 713.3 billion yuan of local government bonds for November - December 2025, including 347.5 billion yuan of new special bonds [2]. 3.2 New Bond Issuance Progress - As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 90.3% and 95.6% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the forecast for next period, the proportions are expected to be 91.4% and 100.7%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 90.9%/98.0% and 91.1%/99.2%, and in 2023 was 94.3%/95.9% and 94.5%/96.2% [2]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance - As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 129.67 billion yuan (4.9 billion yuan issued this period). The cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 199.62 billion yuan (0 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 99.8%. Since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 14.16 billion yuan (4 billion yuan issued this period) [2]. 3.4 Spreads and Turnover Rate - As of November 21, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 14.34BP and 18.24BP respectively, narrowing by 1.26BP and 3.95BP compared to November 14, 2025. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds was 0.80%, up from 0.71% in the previous period [2]. - The 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Xiamen, Beijing, and Jiangxi have better yields and liquidity than the national average [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The synergy between silicone and caprolactam has been established, indicating a potential upturn in the industry, with a shift away from internal competition accelerating the chemical sector's turning point [3]. - The report highlights a stable increase in oil demand due to global economic recovery and tariff adjustments, with Brent crude oil expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [3][4]. - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Xingfa Group, Luxi Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Materials, and Xin'an Chemical for silicone, and Luxi Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Polyone for caprolactam [3]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgment indicates that oil supply growth is slowing due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with a global economic improvement [3][4]. - The report notes that coal prices are expected to stabilize in the long term, and natural gas costs may decrease as the U.S. accelerates its export facility construction [3]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends a diversified investment approach across four chains: textile and apparel, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemicals, and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [3]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Textile and Apparel: Luxi Chemical, Tongkun Co., Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical - Agricultural Chemicals: Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, Yuntianhua - Export-related Chemicals: Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Wanhu Chemical - Anti-involution sectors: Biyuan Chemical, Xuefeng Technology [3]. Key Material Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor materials, panel materials, and lithium battery materials [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 5.15 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.1%, achieving a historical high in revenue [7] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached 140 million yuan, up 34.9% year-on-year, while non-GAAP net profit was 110 million yuan, reflecting a 22.3% increase [7] - The company is expanding its store network, with a total of 2,195 stores as of Q3 2025, an increase of 103 stores from the previous quarter [7] - The company is enhancing its multi-category recycling services, with a 95% year-on-year growth in multi-category recycling transaction volume [7] - The company is preparing for international expansion, with a focus on exporting domestic high-quality models to meet overseas demand [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY23 to FY27 are as follows: 12,966 million yuan, 16,328 million yuan, 20,893 million yuan, 25,960 million yuan, and 31,273 million yuan, with growth rates of 31.4%, 25.9%, 28.0%, 24.3%, and 20.5% respectively [6][8] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY25 to FY27 are 421 million yuan, 649 million yuan, and 834 million yuan, with growth rates of 34.0%, 54.3%, and 28.4% respectively [6][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 5.9% in FY23 to 18.0% in FY27 [6]

Market Overview - The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%[3] - The US dollar index increased by 0.87% to 100.2, indicating the end of a weak dollar environment[3] - Global risk assets mostly declined, with significant drops in equity markets, particularly in A-shares and the Hang Seng Tech Index[3] Fund Flows - In the week ending November 19, 2025, foreign capital inflows into the Chinese stock market totaled $318 million, while domestic capital inflows reached $3.677 billion[3] - The US equity market saw a substantial inflow of $11.8 billion, while fixed income funds in the US attracted $10.99 billion[15] Valuation Metrics - As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation percentile was at 81.9%, second only to the S&P 500 and France's CAC40, but still significantly lower than US equities[3] - The risk-adjusted return percentile for the S&P 500 decreased from 47% to 39%, while the Nasdaq's dropped from 46% to 35%[3] Risk Sentiment - The S&P 500 closed at 6,602.99, below the 20-day moving average, with an implied volatility trend on the rise[3] - The put-call ratio for the S&P 500 decreased to 1.03 from 1.14, indicating a marginal increase in market optimism[3] Economic Data - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 71% from 44.4% the previous week, with an 80% chance of rates falling to 3.5%-3.75% by January 2026[3]