Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices showed a continuous rebound. Weak US employment and services PMI data supported Fed rate cuts, increasing market expectations for a September rate cut. Trump's unexpected tariff increase and potential Fed chair change added to market uncertainty, boosting investor risk aversion and driving up precious metal prices [4][7]. - On Friday, the COMEX December gold futures contract briefly hit a record high of $3534 before falling back, influenced by news of possible US tariffs on imported gold. The market is focused on the White House's upcoming executive order regarding gold bar import tariffs [4][7]. - The US may impose country - specific import tariffs on widely - traded gold bars, which could severely impact the global gold supply chain. Switzerland, as the world's largest gold refining and transit center, would be significantly affected if the tariff policy is implemented [4]. - The market is currently focused on the Trump administration's stance on gold bar import tariffs in the executive order. Gold price volatility is expected to intensify in the near term, and technically, international gold prices are more likely to face short - term pressure after Friday's pull - back [4][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 787.80 | 17.08 | 2.22 | 220321 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 783.27 | 7.72 | 1.00 | 33164 | 207932 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3458.20 | 42.20 | 1.24 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9278 | 360 | 4.04 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9249 | 250 | 2.78 | 347688 | 3526850 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 38.51 | 1.41 | 3.79 | | | US dollars/ounce | [5] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Market uncertainty increased due to potential Fed rate cuts, tariff hikes, and possible Fed chair change, leading to a rise in precious metal prices last week [4][7]. - The possible US gold import tariffs could disrupt the global gold supply chain, especially affecting Switzerland [4]. - Gold price volatility is expected to intensify, and short - term pressure on international gold prices is more likely [4][11]. - This week, key data to watch include US July CPI, PPI, and retail data, as well as the euro - zone's Q2 GDP quarter - on - quarter revised value. Events to monitor are US tariff policy changes, Fed officials' speeches, and the Russia - US summit [11]. 3. Important Data Information - US service sector expansion slowed in July, with the ISM services PMI at 50.1, lower than the previous month and expectations. The employment index shrank, and the price index reached a new high since October 2022 [12]. - US initial jobless claims increased by 7000 to 226,000 last week, and continued claims rose by 38,000 to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, suggesting a cooling labor market and strengthening rate - cut expectations [12]. - New York Fed's July survey showed that one - year inflation expectations rose from 3% to 3.1%, three - year inflation expectations remained at 3%, and five - year inflation expectations increased from 2.6% to 2.9%, the highest since February [12]. - The Bank of England cut rates by 25 basis points, but internal differences over inflation risks may signal an approaching end to consecutive rate cuts [12]. - As of the end of July 2025, China's official gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces to 73.96 million ounces, with continuous increases for nine months [13]. - A US Customs and Border Protection document indicated that 1 - kilogram and 100 - ounce gold bars may be subject to tariffs [13]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - ETF gold total holdings were 959.64 tons on August 8, 2025, up 6.56 tons from the previous week. iShare silver holdings were 14990.80 tons, down 65.87 tons from the previous week [14]. - For gold futures on August 5, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 292194, short positions were 55144, and net long positions were 237050, an increase of 13454 from the previous week. For silver futures, non - commercial long positions were 71234, short positions were 20576, and net long positions were 50658, a decrease of 8749 from the previous week [16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the content [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment trading driven by the "anti - involution" policy in the previous market has subsided, and the bullish sentiment in the alumina futures has significantly declined. The alumina is expected to remain volatile as the short - term contradiction between supply and demand is not significant. The cost of bauxite from Guinea is expected to be firm due to heavy rainfall and unimplemented mine resumption plans. The supply of domestic bauxite in the north may affect local alumina production, while the demand from electrolytic aluminum enterprises is stable [3][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - From August 1st to August 8th, 2025, the alumina futures (active) rose from 3162 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot price rose from 3274 yuan/ton to 3275 yuan/ton; the spot premium increased by 42 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB decreased from 377 dollars/ton to 373 dollars/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 30.6 yuan/ton to - 31.34 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory increased by 19567 tons to 26182 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [4] 2. Market Review - Alumina futures rose 0.25% last week, closing at 3170 yuan/ton, while the national weighted average price of the spot market was 3275 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous week. In the bauxite market, domestic ore prices were stable overall, with low mine operating rates in the north due to policy and flood season factors, and relatively stable southern ores. Imported ore prices are expected to be firm due to government actions and weather - related impacts in Guinea. On the supply side, there was a regional supply - demand mismatch in the alumina market. On the consumption side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly [5][6] 3. Market Outlook - The event of the Guinea government taking over GAC's mining rights has little short - term impact on supply but indicates a long - term tightening of mining rights. The alumina production capacity has both increases and decreases, with the overall operating capacity increasing slightly. The electrolytic aluminum capacity is stable, and the procurement of raw materials is stable. The spot price is stable, and the futures bullish sentiment has declined. Alumina is expected to remain volatile in the short term [3][9] 4. Industry News - On August 4th, the Guinea government established Nimba Mining Company SA to take over EGA - GAC's mining rights. The AXIS mining area has not resumed production. A Shanxi alumina enterprise has reduced production due to ore issues, and a Guizhou enterprise's roasting furnace maintenance has ended [10] 5. Related Charts - The content provides multiple charts showing the trends of alumina futures prices, spot prices, spot premiums, bauxite prices, and other related data [12][13][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rebounded weakly. The weakening US dollar and the concentrated low inventory of LME zinc with signs of a squeeze contributed to the rebound of zinc prices both at home and abroad. However, due to the continued inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and insufficient downstream purchasing, the upward momentum of Shanghai zinc was limited, and the rebound height is expected to be restricted [3][4][11] Summary by Directory Trading Data - From August 1st to August 8th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 22,320 yuan/ton to 22,515 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,729.5 dollars/ton to 2,834 dollars/ton, an increase of 104.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.18 to 7.94. The SHFE inventory increased by 4,193 tons to 65,917 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 19,325 tons to 81,500 tons, the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 113,200 tons, and the spot premium decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [5] Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc (ZN2509) rebounded weakly, with a weekly increase of 0.87%, closing at 22,515 yuan/ton. LME zinc also rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.83%, closing at 2,834 dollars/ton. In the spot market, after the zinc price rebounded, downstream purchasing weakened, and the market remained dull. As of August 8th, LME zinc inventory decreased, while SHFE and social inventories increased. In terms of the macro - environment, the US economic data was mixed, and domestic import and export data in July exceeded expectations with positive changes in inflation data [6][7][8] Industry News - As of August 8th, the average weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates remained flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and that for imported zinc concentrates increased by 3.5 dollars/dry ton to 82.25 dollars/dry ton. Pan American Silver Corp's zinc concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 12,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%. Nyrstar received 135 million Australian dollars in support from the Australian government. Glencore's self - owned zinc production in Q2 2025 was 251,600 tons, 19% higher than in Q2 2024, and its 2025 self - owned zinc production guidance was adjusted to 940,000 - 980,000 tons [12] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, price ratios, spot and LME premium/discounts, inventory changes, zinc ore processing fees, smelter profits, refined zinc production and import/export, and downstream enterprise开工率 [13][15][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon rebounded from its low level. The main reasons were the continuous fermentation of anti - involution sentiment in China, the elimination of excess production capacity in the downstream photovoltaic industry chain, and the entry into a stage of quality improvement and efficiency enhancement, which was beneficial to the industry's development prospects. Additionally, China's trade data in July was impressive, with minimal impact from tariffs. The supply side did not show significant expansion, while the demand side faced various challenges. It is expected that the component shipments in August will shrink significantly, and the industrial silicon spot market declined slightly. Technically, the futures price is expected to enter a volatile upward trend in the short term [2][6][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - From August 1st to August 8th, the industrial silicon主力 contract rose from 8,500 yuan/ton to 8,710 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47%. The prices of various spot products such as通氧 553,不通氧 553, 421, 3303, and有机硅 DMC decreased, while the price of多晶硅致密料 increased by 6.82%. The industrial silicon social inventory rose to 54.7 tons, an increase of 1.30% [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% (in US dollars). In the first seven months, China's total import and export value was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. High - tech product imports and exports increased by 8.4%, and the "new three" green and low - carbon products increased by 14.9% [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of August 8th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 83,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.9%. The overall furnace - opening rate in the three major producing areas rose slightly to 33.9%. The demand side faced challenges such as limited downstream acceptance of price increases by polysilicon enterprises, difficulty in covering costs in the silicon wafer market, high supply - side pressure in the photovoltaic cell market, and low downstream acceptance in the component market. It is expected that component shipments in August will shrink significantly [8]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of August 8th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 547,000 tons. The exchange's registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, and the inventory pressure of warehouse receipts decreased due to the continuous decline in domestic production [9]. Industry News - On August 1st, 2025, the US Department of Commerce launched a second anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sunset review investigation on crystalline silicon photovoltaic products imported from China and a second anti - dumping sunset review investigation on products imported from Taiwan, China. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association called on relevant units to provide opinions on the "Price Law Amendment Draft (Exposure Draft)". Guosheng Securities believes that in the context of anti - involution, the price of polysilicon is expected to return above the industry cost price, and attention should be paid to the price repair opportunities in the downstream industrial chain [11][12]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing data such as industrial silicon production, exports, social inventory, and prices of related products over different time periods [14][17][19].

铁矿周报 2025 年 8 月 11 日 关注限产影响 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅% | 总成交量/手 | 总持仓量/手 | 价格单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE 螺纹钢 | 3213 | 10 | 0.31 | 9240311 | 2947936 | 元/吨 | | SHFE 热卷 | 3428 | 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is influenced by overseas rate - cut expectations and tariff policies, while China's July import and export data exceeded expectations. The equity market may enter a shock - consolidation phase after rising and shrinking in volume, and bond market opportunities are worthy of attention [2][3]. - Precious metals are boosted by the increasing expectation of the Fed's rate cut, and their prices are expected to remain in a shock - upward trend in the short term [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to remain in a strong - shock trend in the short term due to China's strong trade data, the return of overseas supplies, and the expected rate cut by the Fed [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are in a shock state due to the game between the macro - positive and the general fundamentals [8][9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term, and the center of gravity may gradually shift down in the medium term [10]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain an external - strong and internal - weak pattern due to overseas liquidity concerns and the decline of the US dollar [11]. - Lead prices lack continuous positive stimuli and turn to a shock state after the optimistic sentiment is digested [12][13]. - Tin prices follow macro - news, with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern in the short term [14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a strong - shock trend in the short term due to the uncalmed anti - involution sentiment [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are cautiously bullish in the short term, but the drag of resource disturbances subsiding on prices should be vigilant [17][18]. - Nickel prices may be dragged down by the weakening macro - expectations in the short term [19][20]. - Crude oil prices are in a weak - shock state as the risk of sanctions cools down [21]. - Steel prices are expected to maintain a shock trend due to continuous inventory accumulation [23]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be in a weak - shock trend, and the impact of northern military - parade production restrictions should be focused on in the medium term [24]. - Soybean meal prices may shock and strengthen, but the upward momentum is relatively weak [25][26]. - Palm oil prices may shock and adjust [28]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump nominated Milan as a Fed governor, and the selection of the Fed chairman has started. The reciprocal tariffs have come into effect, and the EU maintains a 15% tariff cap on US chip exports. The US dollar index fell below 98, US bond yields rose slightly, the US stock market opened high and closed low, the gold price exceeded $3400, the copper price rose, and the oil price fell due to the expectation of US - Russia negotiations [2]. - Domestic: In July 2025, China's exports and imports denominated in US dollars both exceeded expectations, with a trade surplus of $98.2 billion. Exports to the EU and ASEAN increased, partially offsetting the decline in exports to the US. The A - share market was in a narrow - range shock, and the bond market rose. The central bank announced a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures continued to rise. The increasing expectation of the Fed's rate cut, weak employment data, and Trump's nomination of a dovish Fed governor have strengthened the rate - cut expectation, boosting precious metals. It is expected that precious metal prices will maintain a shock - upward trend in the short term [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly, and LME copper encountered resistance and fell after failing to break through $9700. China's July copper ore imports increased significantly. Due to the strong trade data, the return of overseas supplies, and the expected rate cut by the Fed, copper prices are expected to remain in a strong - shock trend in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.73%, and LME aluminum fell 0.42%. The macro - positive supports aluminum prices, but the fundamentals are general, with inventory remaining flat this week and consumption in the off - season. Aluminum prices are in a shock state [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures fell 0.34%. There are short - term supply disturbances, and the exchange's warehouse receipts have increased rapidly. The consumption side suppresses the price. In the short term, the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate, and the center of gravity may gradually shift down in the medium term [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated narrowly during the day and shifted down at night, while LME zinc rose. The LME inventory has decreased, and there are signs of a short squeeze. The domestic market is in the off - season with inventory accumulation. Zinc prices are expected to maintain an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [11]. 3.7 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME lead rose. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the global visible inventory is high, and the demand is weak. Lead prices lack continuous positive stimuli and are in a shock state [12][13]. 3.8 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated strongly during the day and horizontally at night, and LME tin rose. The market's rate - cut expectation has pushed up the price, and the inventory shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Tin prices follow macro - news, with limited short - term supply - demand contradictions [14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The inventory has increased slightly due to the increase in production in the southwest during the wet season. The anti - involution sentiment is still fermenting, and industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a strong - shock trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Thursday, the price of carbonate lithium futures fluctuated strongly. The market focuses on resource disturbances at home and abroad, but the domestic lithium ore supply is abundant. The spot market is in a wait - and - see state. The short - term price is driven by expectations, but the drag of resource disturbances subsiding should be vigilant. It is cautiously bullish in the short term [17][18]. 3.11 Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices fluctuated. The US labor market shows signs of cooling, and new tariff disturbances have emerged. The supply of nickel ore is increasing, and the demand for nickel iron is weak. Nickel prices may be dragged down by weakening macro - expectations in the short term [19][20]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil prices fluctuated weakly. Saudi Arabia raised oil prices for Asian customers, and the expectation of a US - Russia summit has cooled the market's concern about supply disturbances. Crude oil prices are in a weak - shock state [21]. 3.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: On Thursday, steel futures fluctuated. The output increased slightly, the apparent demand declined, and the inventory accumulated. Due to the expected production restrictions for the military parade, the inventory pressure is not large, and steel prices are expected to maintain a shock trend [23]. - Iron Ore: On Thursday, iron ore futures fluctuated. The supply is stable, the demand is still resilient, and the export of steel products continues to contribute to the increase. It is expected to be in a weak - shock trend, and the impact of northern military - parade production restrictions should be focused on in the medium term [24]. 3.14 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the soybean meal contract rose, and the rapeseed meal contract fell. The drought - affected area of US soybeans decreased, and the export sales slightly exceeded expectations. The supply of distant - end soybeans is expected to be tight, and Brazilian discounts are rising. Soybean meal prices may shock and strengthen, but the upward momentum is relatively weak [25][26]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil contract fell, and the soybean oil contract was flat. The production of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia has increased, but the implementation of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy provides support. Palm oil prices may shock and adjust [28]. 3.16 Metal Main Varieties' Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. on August 7 [29]. 3.17 Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the price changes, inventory changes, and other data of metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc. from August 6 to August 7 [31][34].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250807 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美联储官员经济担忧升温，美元指数承压走弱 海外方面，降息预期与关税主导市场，多位美联储官员转向担忧就业与经济放缓，卡什 卡利预计年内将降息两次，戴利认为劳动力市场走弱将迫使美联储尽快降息，库克称就业数 据"令人担忧"，市场目前定价 9 月降息概率为 94%、年内降息 3 次。特朗普宣布对进口半 导体征收约 100%关税，仅在美生产可豁免；对印度因持续进口俄油额外加征 25%关税，部 分商品税率将升至 50%，美印关系恶化中；美日贸易协议现分歧，美国拟在原税率基础上再 加征 15%关税，日方强调提高后总税率应为 15%。美元指数回落至 98.2，美债利率震荡上 行，美股上涨超 1%，金价震荡收跌、铜价收涨，特朗普称与俄会谈取得进展引发制裁不确 定性，油价跌至八周低点。 国内方面，A 股再度低开高走，上证指数站稳 3600 关口，中证 2000、北证 50 等小票 风格占优，军工、机器人板块领涨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the next month, with increasing constraints on steel supply and demand in the off - season, steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The "anti - involution" policy has a mid - term impact on the supply - demand relationship, and the steel market is in a double - weak supply - demand pattern [4]. - In July, steel futures prices rose strongly driven by policies and then回调 at the end of the month. In August, the market focuses on the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, pre - parade production restrictions, and the demand expectations for the peak seasons [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In July, steel futures prices rose strongly due to policy drivers and then fell at the end of the month. The main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose by over 10%. Spot prices also increased. The "anti - involution" policy and coal mine over - production checks led to cost increases, pushing up prices. At the end of the month, the lack of incremental stimulus policies and lower - than - expected PMI caused market sentiment to cool down [9]. - In August, the market focuses on the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, pre - parade production restrictions, and the demand expectations for the peak seasons [9]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Anti - Involution Policy Disturbance, Supply Expectation Enhancement - The "anti - involution" policy in July aimed to regulate market competition. In the short term, it caused price fluctuations in coking coal. In the long term, it may reshape the supply - demand structure and profit distribution in the black commodity market. The coal industry may see increased concentration and pricing power [15]. - In July, steel supply remained relatively high. Profit - driven production led to high iron - water output and increased short - process production. In August, pre - parade production restrictions are expected, but supply in the first and middle of the month remains elastic [16]. 2.2 Steel Inventory Accumulation Accelerated at the End of the Month - In July, steel inventory continued to decline overall but showed signs of marginal accumulation at the end of the month. The total inventory of five major steel products increased slightly, with social inventory rising and factory inventory falling. Due to production restrictions and policies in August, inventory pressure is generally not large [19]. 2.3 Demand in the Off - Season, Weak Real Estate and Slowing Infrastructure - In July, steel demand was weak in the off - season, but exports remained resilient. Construction steel demand was weak due to the real - estate slump, and infrastructure investment growth slowed. Plate demand also weakened marginally. The manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range, and the "trade - in" policy's effect on the manufacturing industry diminished [22]. 2.4 Increased Policy Impact - Multiple policies were introduced in July. The "anti - involution" policy affected the steel market. Real - estate investment continued to decline, while the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started, which may drive new infrastructure investment expectations [24][27][28]. 3. Market Outlook - Supply side: In July, steel supply remained high with significant differentiation among varieties. In August, pre - parade production restrictions are expected, but supply in the first and middle of the month remains elastic due to profit incentives [44][46]. - Demand side: In July, steel demand was weak in the off - season, but exports remained resilient. Construction steel and plate demand both declined. Manufacturing was under pressure, and overseas exports maintained a good growth rate [46]. - In the next month, with increasing supply constraints and demand in the off - season, steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to policy impacts [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the market is pricing in the risk of a cooling US economy and an escalation of tariff threats. The US ISM Services PMI in July dropped to 50.1, indicating rising stagflation risks, while the Markit Services PMI rose to 55.7. Trump announced potential tariff hikes, and the appointment of a new Fed Chair is anticipated. In the domestic market, the Chinese Services PMI in July reached a 14 - month high. A - shares showed a bullish trend, and the bond market was volatile. In August, with limited domestic policy and event expectations and increasing overseas uncertainties, the equity market may oscillate, and opportunities in the bond market should be monitored [2][3]. - For precious metals, supported by interest - rate cut expectations, gold and silver continued to rebound. The market expects the Fed to start cutting rates in September, and Trump's tariff announcements may further boost risk - aversion sentiment [4][5]. - In the copper market, the US service industry is at risk of stagnation, but the expectation of a September rate cut has increased. With overseas concentrate shortages and mine restart issues, and inventory rebounds, copper prices are expected to find support and then stabilize [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure. Although the decline in the US Services PMI has increased speculation of a Fed rate cut, global economic uncertainties and trade policies have affected demand. With rising inventory, aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure [8][9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate. With an increase in warehouse receipts and a relaxation of market supply, and stable consumption, the market shows a mixed situation [10]. - Zinc prices are expected to be under pressure below the moving average. With a weakening economy, weak consumption, and increasing supply, the expectation of an oversupply is strong, but the short - term decline may be limited [11][12]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weak. With limited consumption improvement, supply increases, and potential cost support weakening, lead prices lack upward momentum [13][14]. - Tin prices may have limited upward momentum. Although supply has marginally recovered, consumption is weak, and the market is in a destocking phase. The price rebound driven by capital reduction may face pressure [15]. - Industrial silicon prices may stop falling. With the increase in production during the southwest's wet season and the rebound of warehouse receipts, and the recovery of anti - involution sentiment, the prices are expected to stabilize [16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are weak. Affected by the cooling of anti - involution governance, prices are returning to fundamentals. Technically, there is still room for decline, but policy risks remain high [18][19]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate. With weakening terminal demand and an expected supply surplus, but a solid cost base, and fluctuating macro - expectations, nickel prices will remain volatile [20]. - Crude oil prices are weak. With the potential reduction of US sanctions on Russia and OPEC+'s production increase plan, along with rising stagflation concerns, oil prices are expected to be weak, but Middle - East geopolitical risks should be watched [21]. - Steel prices are expected to be slightly bullish. With stable spot trading, the output of major steel products is stable, and demand is mixed. With the expected supply reduction due to the northern parade limit, prices may oscillate upwards [22][23]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. With a slight increase in port inventory, stable supply, and high steel - mill iron - water production, prices will remain range - bound, and the impact of northern parade - related production limits should be monitored [24]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. With normal precipitation in US soybean - growing areas, slow export sales of new - crop soybeans, and the upcoming arrival of Argentine soybean meal, prices will show wide - range oscillations [25]. - Palm oil prices may oscillate and adjust. With concerns about a potential US stagflation, falling oil prices, and expectations of an inventory increase in Malaysian palm oil, but support from Indonesia's B40 policy, and the entry of long - position funds, palm oil prices are in an oscillatory phase [26][27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties' Trading Data - Presents the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc., along with their price units [28]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, it shows the price changes of SHFE copper and LME copper, as well as data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [29]. - For nickel, it provides price changes of SHFE nickel and LME nickel, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [29][32]. - For zinc, it presents price changes of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For lead, it shows price changes of SHFE lead and LME lead, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For aluminum, it provides price changes of SHFE aluminum and LME aluminum, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For alumina, it shows the price changes of SHFE alumina and the national average spot price, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For tin, it presents price changes of SHFE tin and LME tin, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For precious metals, it shows price changes of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For steel products, it provides price changes of SHFE rebar and hot - rolled coil, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For iron ore, it shows price changes of DCE iron ore, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For coking coal and coke, it presents price changes of DCE coking coal and coke, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For industrial silicon, it shows price changes of GFEX industrial silicon, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, it provides price changes of CBOT soybeans, DCE soybean meal, and CZCE rapeseed meal, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In July, steel mills maintained high production intensity. Driven by profits, the mills' operation was at a high level, and molten iron production remained resilient, supporting raw material demand. The market began to factor in the expectations of production restrictions for the September military parade and flat control of crude steel output, with a greater impact on far - month contracts and a weakening of the monthly spread [3][14][43]. - In July, the total iron ore shipments declined seasonally but remained at a relatively high level. The weekly average shipments from Australia and Brazil were 22.63 million tons, a decrease of 2.97 million tons month - on - month. The weekly average shipments from Australia were 15.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.74 million tons month - on - month, and those from Brazil were 7.13 million tons, a decrease of 0.24 million tons month - on - month. Shipments from non - mainstream countries were 5.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 million tons month - on - month but still at a high level year - on - year. Shipments from regions such as India and Ukraine were stable. Shipments in August are expected to be stable [3][17][43]. - In the next month, focus on the impact of military parade production restrictions in the north. Macroscopically, important events such as China - US tariff negotiations have been finalized, and the expectation of anti - involution still provides support. Currently, steel mills' profitability is at a high level, and their willingness to start operations is strong. Demand will be resilient in the first and middle ten - days, while molten iron production will be under pressure in the last ten - days when production restrictions are implemented. Downstream demand will gradually enter the peak season, and the consumption expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" will strengthen. Coupled with steel mill production restrictions, there may be a short - term mismatch between steel supply and demand, and steel prices may drive up the prices of the black commodity sector. Iron ore prices are expected to show an oscillating trend [3][44]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In July, iron ore futures were generally strong. They rose in the first and middle ten - days and adjusted at a high level in the last ten - days, with the center of gravity moving up. The main contract of iron ore rose from 708 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to a high of 835 yuan/ton in the last ten - days, with a maximum increase of over 15%, and then fell back to 779 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The upward movement was dominated by macro - expectations, and the fundamental resilience provided support. In the last ten - days, the futures price corrected due to the revision of expectations [8]. - Spot prices also strengthened synchronously. The 62% Platts index rose 8.3% to $102.6, and the spot price of PB fines rose 63 yuan to 764 yuan/wet ton. The spread between high - and low - grade ores rebounded. The spread between PB fines and Super Special fines increased from around 110 yuan/ton to around 125 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Impact of August Production Restrictions - In July, steel mills maintained high production intensity. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.4%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points month - on - month but an increase of 1.1 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, at a high level for the year. The daily average molten iron production was over 2.4 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate reached 63.64%, a significant increase year - on - year. The market began to trade on the expectations of September military parade production restrictions and flat control of crude steel output, with a greater impact on far - month contracts [14]. - Overseas, iron ore demand was weak, mainly affected by the slowdown in global economic growth. The crude steel production of major iron ore importing countries declined significantly. From January to June, Japan's cumulative crude steel production was 40.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.03%; South Korea's was 30.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%; and Germany's was 17.21 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.8% [15]. 3.2.2 Supply: Stable Overseas Shipments - In the first six months of this year, China's iron ore imports decreased year - on - year. From January to June, China imported 592.2 million tons of iron ore, a 3% year - on - year decrease. In July, the total iron ore shipments decreased seasonally but remained at a relatively high level. The weekly average shipments from Australia and Brazil were 22.63 million tons, a decrease of 2.97 million tons month - on - month. Shipments in August are expected to be stable [17]. - The arrival volume in July decreased and was at the median level in the same period of the past three years. The daily average arrival volume was 3.66 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons month - on - month but an increase of 120,000 tons year - on - year. The arrival volume in August is expected to decrease month - on - month [18]. 3.2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - In July, the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports decreased month - on - month and was lower than the level of the same period last year. As of early August, the total inventory at 45 ports was 136.58 million tons, a decrease of 2.2 million tons compared with the beginning of last month and a decrease of 14.32 million tons compared with the same period last year. In August, attention should be paid to production restriction policies and the arrival rhythm. If molten iron production declines, inventory may start to accumulate [23]. 3.2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - As of early August, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 90.12 million tons, an increase of 930,000 tons month - on - month. The daily consumption of imported ore was 2.995 million tons, a decrease of 13,500 tons compared with the beginning of last month. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.09, an increase of 0.44 month - on - month. The expectation of August military parade production restrictions may suppress the procurement enthusiasm [36]. 3.2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - In July, the production of domestic mines continued to contract. The national iron concentrate production was about 20.85 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 1.3%. The production reduction trend may continue in the medium and long term due to the peak of crude steel production and safety policies [37]. 3.2.6 Shipping Freight Situation - In July, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose, mainly driven by the increase in China's demand for bulk commodity imports and the peak season of Brazil's grain exports. As of August 4, the BDI index was reported at 1970 points, a month - on - month increase of 37%. The shipping freight rates for some key routes also increased [40]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The demand side will see strong demand in the first and middle ten - days of the next month, but molten iron production will be under pressure in the last ten - days when production restrictions are implemented. The supply side will have stable shipments in August. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [43][44].