1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic factors: The China-US trade negotiation has been postponed. China's anti-involution and stable growth policies have significantly boosted the sentiment in the industrial product market. In July, China's manufacturing PMI decreased seasonally, and the decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed. The Ministry of Finance emphasized increasing fiscal counter-cyclical adjustment, supporting traditional industry transformation and the growth of emerging industries, promoting consumption, and expanding domestic demand [3]. - Supply side: The operating rate in Xinjiang dropped below 50%, and the output growth in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season was limited. The supply side showed a passive contraction, with social inventory declining from a high level and warehouse receipt inventory decreasing due to the monthly decline in domestic production [3][56]. - Demand side: The spot price of polysilicon rebounded significantly, but a large increase in production volume was expected. Silicon wafers could not cover the high costs, but battery orders were good due to export tax rebates, driving consumption. However, battery prices had limited upward space due to the drag of centralized demand. Component markets had high quotes but low transactions because of the weak demand for domestic distributed projects. In traditional industries, silicone monomer enterprises were reluctant to lower prices, but the cost support in the future would weaken. The aluminum alloy production remained stable due to continuous orders from the automotive sector. Overall, industrial silicon was expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand in August [3][57]. - Market outlook: The futures price of industrial silicon was expected to enter a pattern of volatile rebound [3][57]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 July Industrial Silicon Market Review - **Futures price**: In July 2025, the industrial silicon futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The main 2509 contract fluctuated between 7705 - 10060 yuan/ton. The price center rebounded compared to the previous month, and the volatility increased. The anti-involution and stable growth policies boosted market sentiment, but the contraction of polysilicon production capacity might drag down the demand for industrial silicon. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3. The operating rate in Xinjiang in July was around 50%, and the increase in the operating rate in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season was limited. As of the end of July, the number of open furnaces nationwide increased to 260. From the demand side, the polysilicon market mainly had historical order replenishment transactions, the silicon wafer market continued to raise prices but could not cover costs, the battery market had limited price increase space, and the component market had a situation of high quotes but low transactions. As of July 31, the main 2509 contract closed at 8760 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 8.7% [8]. - **Spot market**: In July, the total number of open furnaces of industrial silicon in China was 260, an increase of 45 compared to the previous month. The average production cost decreased by 1.64% month-on-month. The operating rate in Xinjiang decreased to around 50%, and the output growth in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season was limited. The social inventory decreased slightly to 53.5 tons. The spot market rebounded to above 10,000 yuan and then quickly declined. By the end of July, the prices of mainstream 553 grades rebounded, the price of 441 decreased, the price of 421 rebounded significantly, and the price of 3303 might be adjusted downward in the next month [9][10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - The anti-involution and stable growth policies were clearly defined. The 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in July proposed an anti-involution policy framework, aiming to address the imbalance between supply and demand in the macro - economy, especially in the new energy vehicle, photovoltaic component, and e - commerce platform sectors. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planned to introduce stable growth plans for key industries such as automobiles, steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, and promote the integration of technological and industrial innovation. In June, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increased significantly, providing support for the profit of large - scale industries [16][19][20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: In July, the operating rate of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang was around 50%, and the output growth in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season was limited. The output in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was stable. The total industrial silicon output in July was 33.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. As of July 28, the number of open furnaces nationwide increased to 260, and the overall operating rate increased to 32.7%. It was expected that the operating rate in August would remain at a low level of around 35%, and the output of mainstream grades of industrial silicon would be restricted by policies in the long - term [22][23]. - **Export**: From January to June this year, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 21.67 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. In June, the export volume was 6.83 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The export destinations were mainly Southeast Asian countries. It was expected that the export volume from July to August would remain stable at 6 - 7 tons [32]. - **Inventory**: By July 31, the social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 54 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 1.4% month - on - month. The decrease in warehouse receipt inventory was mainly due to the monthly decline in domestic production. It was expected that the social inventory would continue to decline in August [35]. - **Demand**: - **Photovoltaic industry**: In July, the polysilicon output was 10.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.4%. The price of polysilicon increased significantly. The price of silicon wafers continued to rise but could not cover costs. The battery orders were good due to export tax rebates, but the price increase space was limited. The component market had high quotes but low transactions. It was expected that the overall demand for photovoltaic in August would decline significantly, and the new installed capacity in 2025 was expected to drop to around 250GW [37][38][39]. - **Silicone industry**: In July, the output of silicone DMC was 20.65 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1%. The average operating rate of silicone monomer enterprises increased to 72.1%. The spot price of DMC rebounded. The monomer enterprises were reluctant to lower prices, but the cost support in the future would weaken, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in August [40]. - **Aluminum alloy industry**: From January to June, the aluminum alloy output was 909.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. In June, the output was 166.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. The production of aluminum rods in different regions varied, and the total production would continue to run stably. It was expected that the aluminum alloy output would decline slightly in August [42]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Macroeconomic factors would continue to support the market. The supply side would remain in a passive contraction pattern, and the demand side would enter a slow - down cycle in August. Industrial silicon was expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures price was expected to enter a pattern of volatile rebound [56][57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas "rate - cut trading" is heating up, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in September reaching 94%. The dollar index has fallen, and the prices of gold, silver, and copper have rebounded, while OPEC+ production increases have pressured oil prices down. In China, the economy is in a weak recovery, the A - share market has risen with reduced trading volume, and the bond market has shown differentiation. The equity market may fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to bond market opportunities [2][3]. - The prices of precious metals, copper, and nickel are supported by the expectation of Fed rate cuts; the prices of aluminum, lead, tin, and industrial silicon face downward pressure due to factors such as inventory increases and weak demand; the price of lithium carbonate is in a state of multi - factor entanglement and fluctuates; the price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors and may fluctuate; the prices of steel products and iron ore are expected to fluctuate; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate upward, and the price of palm oil may fluctuate and adjust [4][6][8][11][13][15][16][19][21][22][23][25] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Variety Views Macro - Overseas: Fed official Daly signaled a dovish stance. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September reached 94%, and the market expected three rate cuts this year. The dollar index fell to 98.6, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.18%, and the U.S. stock market rebounded nearly 2%. The prices of gold, silver, and copper rebounded, while oil prices fell due to OPEC+ production increases. The reciprocal tariff 2.0 game is in the second half [2]. - Domestic: The economy is in a weak recovery. The A - share market rose with reduced trading volume, and the bond market showed differentiation. The equity market may fluctuate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to bond market opportunities [3]. Precious Metals - After the U.S. non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September soared, boosting precious metal prices. Trump's tariff increase measures also increased inflation expectations and risk aversion, further boosting the price of gold. The short - term focus is on the resistance of the international gold price at $3450 per ounce, and the silver price may rebound more strongly after a significant correction [4][5]. Copper - Fed official Daly's dovish remarks and Trump's possible appointment of new Fed officials have increased the expectation of rate cuts, boosting market risk appetite and weakening the dollar index, which is beneficial to the metal market. The Skouries copper - gold project in Greece is expected to start production in early 2026, with an annual copper output of about 30,000 tons. It is expected that the Shanghai copper price will enter a rebound rhythm [6][7]. Aluminum - The EU will suspend tariff counter - measures against the U.S. for 6 months. Trump adjusted the tariff rates, and the average U.S. tariff reached 18.3%. The social inventory of aluminum continued to increase this week, and the spot market transaction premium continued to decline slightly. Macro and fundamental pressures have increased, and the aluminum price is expected to adjust [8]. Alumina - The futures price of alumina rose slightly. The futures spread structure is conducive to long - position roll - over, and the liquidity risk has decreased. The fundamental situation shows that the warehouse receipt inventory has not increased, the spot price is firm, and consumption is stable. It is expected that the alumina price will fluctuate [9]. Zinc - The EU's suspension of trade counter - measures against the U.S. and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September have improved market risk appetite, and the zinc price has moved up slightly. However, the inventory continues to increase slightly, and the supply - demand pattern of increasing supply and weak demand remains unchanged. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate narrowly [10]. Lead - The lead price has fallen significantly, and the downstream consumption improvement is insufficient. The supply of primary lead and recycled lead is expected to recover, and the lead price will maintain a weak - side shock [11]. Tin - The operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises has recovered, but the supply of tin ore and waste tin is still tight, and the downstream demand is weak. The social inventory has risen above 10,000 tons. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [13]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon continued to decline. The supply is still shrinking, and the demand in the photovoltaic market is weak. The social inventory has increased, and the spot market price has been pressured. It is expected that the futures price will continue to adjust in the short term [14][15]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly. The supply side was affected by the suspension of a lithium mine project in Nigeria and the successful commissioning of a lithium carbonate project in Sichuan. The policy is in a state of correction, and the market fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate [16][17]. Nickel - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased, and the dollar index has fallen, pushing up the nickel price. The price of nickel ore is firm, and the price of Indonesian nickel iron has increased, but the cost pressure remains. The spot trading of pure nickel is okay. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to fluctuate under the influence of repeated macro - expectations [18]. Crude Oil - U.S. economic data is lower than expected, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Geopolitical factors focus on U.S. sanctions against Russia, with the deadline on August 8th. If sanctions are implemented, oil prices may rise; otherwise, they may give back previous gains. In the short term, the oil market outlook is unclear, and it is advisable to wait and see [19]. Steel Products - The futures prices of steel products fluctuated. The fifth round of coke price increases was fully implemented. The production of five major steel products remained stable, the apparent demand weakened significantly, and the inventory increased significantly. With the approaching of the military parade production restrictions in the north in mid - August, the supply contraction expectation is increasing. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a fluctuating trend [20][21]. Iron Ore - The futures price of iron ore fluctuated and rebounded. Overseas shipments decreased this week, while arrivals increased, and supply remained stable. The daily average pig iron production of steel mills decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons. It is expected that the iron ore price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [22]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans is 69%, at a relatively high level in the same period. The future precipitation in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is slightly lower than the average, with limited short - term impact. The domestic soybean purchase rhythm in the fourth quarter is slow, and the tight supply expectation may intensify. In the short term, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate upward [23][24]. Palm Oil - The market expects the inventory of Malaysian palm oil to increase in July. India's palm oil imports in July decreased, while soybean oil imports increased. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. In the short term, the palm oil price may fluctuate and adjust [25][27] 2. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts on August 4th, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, silver, steel products, iron ore, etc. [28] 3. Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents the price changes, inventory changes, and other data of metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, and precious metals from August 1st to August 4th, including futures prices, spot prices, inventory levels, and basis [29][30][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro层面，关税扰动贯穿7月，月初市场悲观，随着贸易协定落地、关税调降，市场情绪回暖；美国二季度经济数据有韧性，劳动市场稳健，美联储偏鹰，市场对美联储降息节点预期反复 [4] - 成本方面，印尼、菲律宾气候扰动减弱，镍矿供给趋向宽松，印尼镍商会下调镍矿内贸基准价，但矿价走弱迹象不明显 [4] - 基本面，7月国内不锈钢产量预期大幅收缩，印尼小幅环增但难补国内减量；三元材料产量小幅环增，消费整体走弱；纯镍出口窗口敞开，供给小幅探涨，基本面供增需减边际走弱 [4] - 后期宏观预期主导，基本面边际变量对价格影响有限；上旬宏观压力预期强，下旬有不确定性；基本面暂无改善预期，镍价或延续震荡运行 [4][47] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - 7月沪镍主力合约震荡运行，月初因美国信函关税压力镍价下行，后随贸易协议签署、关税调降而反弹；基本面无明显驱动，供给边际修正，需求边际走弱，现货库存有累库迹象 [9] - 7月精炼镍升贴水高位回落，金川镍升贴水从月初2600元/吨降至7月30日2300元/吨，进口镍升贴水同期从650元/吨降至550元/吨，升贴水回落后维持低位震荡 [11] 3.2 Macro Analysis Overseas: Tariff Turmoil and Fluctuating Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts - 7月上旬特朗普向23个国家发关税信函，关税强度20 - 50，中下旬关税风波缓解，美国与多国签署贸易协议，协议关税低于信函税率；部分国家仍面临高对等关税，新协议落地待观察 [13] - 美国经济数据喜忧参半，6月核心PCE物价指数等显示通胀和消费有韧性，但7月非农就业等数据走弱，劳动力市场有结构性失衡；制造业PMI未延续修正趋势，市场对美联储降息节点预期反复 [14] - 美国居民需求有韧性是经济增长基石，但需警惕关税引发滞涨压力 [15] Domestic: Clear Path to Anti-Involution and Stable Economic Structure - 反内卷政策预期延续，政策框架日益完善，但7月底政治局会议纪要措辞调整引发市场情绪反复，治理内卷路径明确但具体量化目标待明确 [16] - 投资端6月固定资产投资同比增长2.8%，房地产投资占比回落；消费端社零累计同比+5.0%，剔除汽车后增速回落，居民自主消费驱动力不足；出口6月总额同比增长5.64%，关税对出口影响不明确，需警惕转口贸易压力 [17] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 1. Alleviation of Shortage and Possible Decline in Ore Prices - 印尼、菲律宾气候扰动减弱，镍矿开采效率提升，紧缺格局缓解，印尼镍商会下调镍矿内贸基准价，菲律宾8月镍矿预售成交环比回落，镍矿供给有宽松预期，价格或走弱 [22] - 6月中国镍矿进口量同比回落7.21%，进口自菲律宾占比93.23%；7月25日国内港口库存较6月末大幅累库139万吨 [23] 2. Export Window Remains Open and Supply is Ample - 7月全国精炼镍产量3.28万吨，同比+13.69%，开工率61.08%；冶炼端亏损幅度收窄但仍为负，上游现金流压力或凸显，需警惕下半年供给扰动 [26] - 6月中国进口精炼镍17010吨，同比增长119.71%，进口增量来自挪威，部分国家进口量下滑；出口10143吨，同比-5.66%，7月出口利润回落 [27] 3. Easing Pressure on Ferronickel but Need Time for Correction - 7月高镍生铁价格先跌后涨，10 - 12%高镍生铁到港含税报价月初910.5元/镍点，月中900元/镍点，月底912元/镍点 [30] - 7月中国镍生铁产量环比-0.04%，印尼同环比+28.14%/-1.73%；仅山东火法BF工艺有利润，国内RKEF及EF工艺亏损；国内不锈钢产量7月预期走弱，印尼或增加；国内300系不锈钢库存高位去库不顺畅 [31] - 6月国内镍铁进口同比+50.05%，主要来自印尼；不锈钢进口同比-16.17%，出口同比-15.33%，进出口规模为年内最低 [32] 4. Recovery of the Nickel Sulfate Market and Marginal Improvement in Supply and Demand - 7月硫酸镍价格走势分化，电池级硫酸镍价格从月初28500元/吨降至月末27900元/吨，电镀级硫酸镍价格从28050元/吨涨至28550元/吨 [38] - 5月硫酸镍产量同环比+4.77%/+17.3%，7月三元材料产量同环比+16.7%/+5.8%；高冰镍产硫酸镍工艺利润率3.6%盈利，其他原料工艺亏损；6月硫酸镍进口量约1.32吨，出口782吨 [39] 5. Conservative Policy Expectations and Slowing Consumption Growth - 1 - 6月新能源汽车累计销量同比+40.31%，产量同比+41.37%，产销比近乎持平；7月1 - 20日新能源乘用车零售同比增长23%，较上月同期下降12%，消费增速自6月退坡 [41] - 后期新能源汽车消费面临居民自主消费依赖补贴、补贴资金投放有序及高基数压力，消费或维持增长但数据表现放缓 [42] 6. Bearish Fundamentals and Possible Accumulation of Pure Nickel Inventory - 截至7月25日国内精炼镍社会库存较6月末累库2438吨，7月31日SHFE和LME库存较上月增加，全球两大交易所库存同期增加约5170吨 [44] - 后期纯镍去库曲折，硫酸镍市场热度难延续，冶炼端供给或维持高位，预计纯镍库存将再度累库 [44] 3.4 Market Outlook - 供给方面，出口窗口在，供给或高位稳中偏弱 [47] - 需求方面，钢企不锈钢排产低，新能源消费降速，需求端无亮点，稳中偏弱 [47] - 成本方面，镍矿供给宽松，成本重心下移，中性 [47] - 宏观方面，关税风险反复，上旬压力强，下旬有不确定性，中性 [47] - 后期宏观预期主导，基本面改善预期不明显，镍价或延续震荡运行 [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The global lead market shows a large visible inventory pressure, and the expected increase in supply from new capacity will suppress lead prices. However, the cost support is relatively stable, and the potential production cut expectation caused by refinery losses also provides a bottom - support for lead prices. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate widely in August, and its upside space depends on the actual improvement in the consumption end [2][72][73]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Lead Market Review - In July, the main contract price of Shanghai lead showed a volatile decline. Affected by factors such as the passing of the US bill, good domestic PMI data, and the approaching consumption peak season at the beginning of the month, the lead price was firm. In the middle of the month, due to factors like inventory increase and less - than - expected downstream consumption improvement, the lead price adjusted. After the news of some Middle - Eastern countries imposing additional tariffs on lead - battery exports, the lead price decline was magnified. Finally, it closed at 16,735 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 2.7%. The London lead price first declined and then rose, closing at 1,969.5 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 3.93% [7]. 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative lead concentrate production was 1.8111 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Overseas mine production showed different year - on - year changes, indicating a slow recovery rhythm. In China, from January to June, the cumulative lead concentrate production was 787,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13%. It is expected that the global lead concentrate supply will continue to recover in the second half of the year, with an expected overseas increase of 100,000 tons and a domestic increase of about 70,000 tons, and the global lead mine production growth rate will be 2.3% to 4620,000 tons [10][11]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the demand for silver concentrate imports is increasing**: In August, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan/metal ton; the import processing fee was - 60 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars/dry ton. The import of lead concentrate maintained a loss, but the monthly import volume remained at a relatively high level. In June, the silver concentrate import volume was 126,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 847,000 tons. With the continuous high price of by - product silver, the import demand remained high [18][20]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative refined lead production was 5.5066 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. It is predicted that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [22]. - **Refineries are resuming production, and the electrolytic lead production in August is expected to increase month - on - month**: In July, the electrolytic lead production was 321,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. It is expected that the production in August will be 338,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.13% [26]. - **The price of waste batteries remains high, and new projects contribute to the increase in production**: In July, the price of waste batteries fluctuated slightly. It is expected that the price will remain firm in August. In July, the production of recycled refined lead was 258,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.96%. It is expected that the production in August will be 273,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.16% [32][33]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative refined lead consumption was 5.4887 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.69%. It is expected that the global refined lead demand in 2025 will increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons, and the global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000 tons [44]. - **Lead - battery enters the traditional consumption peak season, and the sector shows differentiation**: In July, the consumption of electric bicycle batteries was good, while the consumption of automobile starting batteries was mixed. In August, it is expected that the battery consumption will continue to be differentiated [48]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot and battery exports, and imports supplement raw material ratios**: In June, the refined lead export volume decreased month - on - month, and the import volume increased year - on - year. The high Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot exports, and the battery export is also affected by factors such as tariff increases [49][50]. - **Policy guidance improves the marginal consumption prospects of lead - batteries**: In the automobile sector, the battery replacement demand is stable, and the new - car demand is expected to continue to be good. In the electric bicycle sector, the replacement demand is large, and policies such as trade - in and new national standards will stimulate consumption. In the energy - storage sector, the demand for lead - batteries is expected to grow [58][60][62]. 2.4 Global Visible Inventory is Rising - In July, the global visible lead inventory was under pressure. The LME inventory remained high, and the domestic lead ingot inventory increased. If the consumption in August does not improve significantly, the inventory may continue to rise [67]. 3. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of primary lead is expected to increase in August, but the refinery profit is compressed. The supply of recycled lead is expected to be stable with a slight increase, but there is a possibility of unexpected production cuts. The demand is differentiated, and the traditional consumption peak season is slightly lower than expected. The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely in August, and its upside depends on the consumption improvement [72][73].

铁矿周报 2025 年 8 月 4 日 市场情绪降温 铁矿震荡为主 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/11 ⚫ 需求端：上周钢厂生产部分受到天气不利因素影响， 日均铁水环比减少，但仍保持在240万吨以上水平。 上周247家钢厂高炉开工率83.46%，环比上周持平， 同比去年增加2.18个百分点，日均铁水产量 240.71 万吨，环比上周减少1.52万吨，同比去年增加4.09万 吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250801 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：6 月 PCE 超预期反弹，国内股商情绪持续降温 海外方面，美国 6 月核心 PCE 同比回升至 2.8%，创四个月新高，环比涨幅亦升至 0.3%， 通胀超预期。受关税推升进口价格影响，物价压力上行，消费与收入放缓，强化美联储年内 不急于降息的预期，目前 9 月降息预期降至 38%。特朗普签署行政令将对未列国征收 10% 关税，加拿大税率从 25%升至 35%，转运税达 40%；墨西哥原有关税延期 90 天（25%芬太 尼汽车、50%金属）；欧盟酒类 8 月起被征收 15%关税，巴西 45%出口商品获豁免 50%关 税，印尼寻铜关税或降至 19%。美元指数站上 100 关口、美债利率回升，超预期的 PCE 及 关税对风险偏好有所压制，美股高开低走，金、铜、油均收跌。今晚关注 7 月非农就业报告。 国内方面，7 月制造业 PMI 回落至 49.3%，弱于预期与季节性，新订单与出口订单同步 回落， ...

2025 年 8 月 4 日 美豆出口需求疲软 连粕或震荡运行 豆粕周报 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 王工建 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 投资咨询号：Z0017785 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆11月合约跌33.75收于988美分/蒲式耳，跌 幅3.30%；豆粕09合约跌11收于3010元/吨，跌幅0.36%；华 南豆粕现货跌10收于2870元/吨，跌幅0.35%；菜粕09合约 收于2675元/吨，持平于上一周；广西菜粕现货跌30收于 2530元/吨，跌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 31 points to close at 4,245 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.72%; the palm oil 09 contract fell 26 points to close at 8,910 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 130 points to close at 8,274 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.60%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 67 points to close at 9,524 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.02 points to close at 53.9 cents/pound, a decline of 3.61%; the ICE canola active contract fell 17 points to close at 682.9 Canadian dollars/ton, a decline of 2.43% [4][7]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated narrowly last week with internal differentiation. Palm oil declined slightly from its high mainly due to the cooling of bullish sentiment in the commodity market, coupled with the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production in July, weaker export demand month-on-month, and continued inventory build-up, which pressured prices. Soybean oil was relatively strong as India's low vegetable oil inventory may lead to imports of Chinese soybean oil, and market purchasing sentiment improved with increased trading volume during the week. The decline of US soybean oil was mainly dragged down by the fall of US soybeans [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the US non-farm payrolls in July were 73,000, lower than market expectations, and the employment data for the previous two months was significantly revised downwards. The expectation of recession pricing increased, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in September heated up. The US stock market tumbled, the US bond price strengthened, and the US dollar index closed down. Oil prices rose and then fell last week. Fundamentally, the market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory to continue to increase in July due to the increasing production and weak export demand. Attention should be paid to the guidance given by the report. In the short term, palm oil may fluctuate and adjust [4][7][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell 2.02 points to 53.9 cents/pound, a decline of 3.61%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 31 points to 4,245 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.72%; the DCE palm oil contract fell 26 points to 8,910 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%; the DCE soybean oil contract rose 130 points to 8,274 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.60%; the CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 67 points to 9,524 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71%. The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 156 yuan/ton to -636 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil increased by 93 yuan/ton to 614 yuan/ton. The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong, fell 80 yuan/ton to 8,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.89%; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 20 yuan/ton to 8,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.24%; the spot price of imported third-grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, rose 30 yuan/ton to 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated narrowly last week with internal differentiation. Palm oil declined slightly from its high mainly due to the cooling of bullish sentiment in the commodity market, coupled with the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production in July, weaker export demand month-on-month, and continued inventory build-up, which pressured prices. Soybean oil was relatively strong as India's low vegetable oil inventory may lead to imports of Chinese soybean oil, and market purchasing sentiment improved with increased trading volume during the week. The decline of US soybean oil was mainly dragged down by the fall of US soybeans [7]. - In July 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 7.19%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and palm oil production increased by 7.07%. From July 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 6.71% - 9.58% compared to the same period last month according to different survey agencies [8]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, higher than $877.89 in July, which means the export tax will increase from $52 per ton in July to $74 per ton in August. In addition to the export tax, Indonesia also levies a 10% special tax on CPO exports, which remains the same as last month [8][9]. - From January to June 2025, Indonesia exported 11 million metric tons of CPO and refined palm oil, a 2.69% increase compared to the same period last year. The average export price of palm oil in the first half of this year increased by 22.2% year-on-year [9]. - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.3618 million tons, an increase of 0.16 million tons from last week and 0.3449 million tons from the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.0881 million tons, a decrease of 0.0037 million tons from last week and 0.0031 million tons from the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 0.6155 million tons, an increase of 0.0241 million tons from last week and 0.1088 million tons from the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.6582 million tons, an increase of 0.0016 million tons from last week and 0.3449 million tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 49,300 tons, compared with 15,840 tons in the previous week; the daily average trading volume of palm oil was 526 tons, compared with 440 tons in the previous week [9]. Industry News - The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement to advance the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The EU agreed to impose zero tariffs on Indonesian palm oil [11]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports to India in 2025 are expected to exceed 500,000 tons, higher than 480,000 tons in 2024. Indonesia is expected to export 100,000 germinated palm seeds to India this year to support India's plan to expand the oil palm planting area to 1 million hectares by 2025 - 2026 [11]. - From January to May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US increased by 51.8% year-on-year, from 61,000 tons in the same period last year to 93,000 tons [12]. - When the free trade agreement between Indonesia and the EU is approved, the EU will grant zero-tariff treatment to an annual export quota of 1 million tons of Indonesian CPO. The EU and Indonesia are expected to officially sign the free trade agreement in September and obtain approval from their respective legislative bodies next year. If the Indonesian CPO exported to the EU exceeds the 1 million - ton quota, an additional 3% tariff will be imposed [12][13]. Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the basis of palm oil and soybean oil, the price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, exports, and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as the commercial inventory of domestic oils and fats [15][17][20][23][25][27][33][35][41][46].

2025 年 8 月 4 日 宏观政策落地 钢价震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 钢材周报 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 宏观面：中美经贸会谈达成共识，双方将继续推动已暂 停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期 90天。中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，会议强调， 做好下半年经济工作，要保持政策连续性稳定性，增强 灵活性预见性。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市 场竞争秩序持续优化。依法依规治理企业无 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, the implementation of reciprocal tariffs poses a stagflation risk to the US economy, delaying the Fed's easing path and boosting the US dollar, which suppresses the non - ferrous market. The unexpected absence of refined copper and cathode copper from the US copper tariff list causes the COMEX premium to rapidly return. In China, the "anti - involution + stable growth" policy boosts the domestic capital market, with increased fiscal counter - cyclical adjustment [2]. - Fundamentally, overseas major mines face continuous disruptions, while domestic refined copper production is high and imports are rising, leading to a looser supply situation. In the consumption sector, traditional industries in China show signs of a slow season, while the copper demand of emerging industries (except for photovoltaics) remains active. The COMEX copper delivery window closes, and global inventories rise slightly [2]. - Overall, the implementation of reciprocal tariffs raises the US inflation expectation, and the Fed's hawkish signals cool the capital market's risk appetite. Although the overseas mine shortage persists, the absence of the US copper tariff weakens the support for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will adjust slightly in August, and the cost will still support copper prices in the medium term [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of Copper Market in July 2025 - Copper prices showed a range - bound trend in July. LME copper dropped from a high of $10,020 at the beginning of the month to $9,550 in the first half, then rebounded to $9,900 and faced resistance. SHFE copper traded in the range of 77,600 - 80,800 yuan. The unexpected US copper tariff situation and the unclear recovery of Panama's mine affected the prices. As of July 28, LME copper closed at $9,762.5/ton with a monthly decline of 1.17%, and SHFE copper closed at 79,000 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 0.03% [7]. - In July, domestic refined copper consumption entered the traditional off - season. Terminal demand was weak, and the social inventory first rose to 150,000 tons and then fell to 120,000 tons. The spot premium declined, and the processing fee of copper rods decreased [10]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 The US Signs Trade Agreements with Major Economies, and the Fed Maintains a Hawkish Stance - The US - EU and US - Japan trade agreements strengthen the US economic position, boost the US dollar, and increase the global capital market's risk appetite. The upcoming Sino - US economic and trade negotiation is expected to have a positive impact on copper prices if an agreement is reached [13]. - There are differences among Fed officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation. The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates this year is uncertain, but in the long run, the policy may become more accommodative due to economic slowdown pressure [14]. 2.2 The US Manufacturing Enters a Contraction Cycle, and the Eurozone's Composite PMI Reaches a One - Year High - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in June was 49.8, still in the contraction range. Factory orders, employment, and other indicators show that the US manufacturing is facing challenges, and inflation may rise in the short term [15]. - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in July rose to 49.8, with Germany playing an important role. The ECB may gradually slow down its easing pace [17]. 2.3 The "Anti - Involution + Stable Growth" Policy is Clear, and New Fields and Tracks will be Pre - deployed - China's "anti - involution" policy aims to address over - competition in industries such as photovoltaics. The "stable growth" policy focuses on key industries like automobiles and steel, and promotes innovation in emerging fields such as AI and bio - manufacturing [18]. - In June, China's industrial added value and the profits of the equipment manufacturing industry increased, which is beneficial for the overall economic development and copper demand [19]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Overseas Mainstream Mining Companies Increase Production in Q2, but the Global Concentrate Shortage Persists - As of the end of July, the copper concentrate spot TC remained at a low level of around - $40/ton. Some major mines like Panama and Kamoa - Kakula face production problems, and although some companies increased production in Q2, the global concentrate shortage continues [25]. - Anglo American, First Quantum, BHP, and other mining companies had different production performances in Q2, affected by factors such as ore grade, recovery rate, and natural disasters [26][27][28]. 3.2 Domestic Production Encounters Bottlenecks, and Overseas New Refined Copper Capacity Climbs Slowly - In China, from January to June, the electrolytic copper production increased, but the import of refined copper decreased. The supply of scrap copper from the US is expected to decline, but the overall scrap copper import is relatively stable. In the future, overseas refined copper supply may return to China [31][32]. - Overseas, many smelters face problems such as production disruptions and slow capacity ramping up. It is estimated that the actual increase in overseas refined copper production in 2025 is only about 150,000 tons [33]. 3.3 Refined Copper Imports will Increase in July, and the COMEX Copper Arbitrage Window is Closing - From January to June, China's imports of unforged copper and copper products decreased, while the imports of copper ore concentrates increased. In June, refined copper imports increased. The US copper tariff policy affects the flow of copper and the arbitrage window is closing [56]. - The Yangshan copper bill of lading premium declined in July, and the export window is narrowing. The US copper tariff policy will change the global copper trade pattern [57]. 3.4 Overseas Inventories Flow to North America, and China Enters a Low - Inventory Range - In July, domestic copper inventories fluctuated at a low level, with SHFE inventories decreasing and Shanghai bonded area inventories increasing. Global visible inventories rebounded due to the approaching US copper tariff window [61]. - As of July 25, the total inventory of the three major exchanges increased slightly. It is expected that global inventories will gradually enter a recovery cycle in August [62][63]. 3.5 Grid Investment Demand Enters the Off - Season, and the Year - on - Year Growth Rate of Emerging Industries (Except for Photovoltaics) Declines - In the first half of 2025, China's grid and power source project investments increased. The total grid investment of the State Grid and South Grid is expected to exceed 80 billion yuan, and the development of flexible DC technology will bring value to new grid lines [70][71]. - The photovoltaic industry has new regulations, and the growth of the wind power industry slows down. The real estate market is still at the bottom, and the demand for copper in these industries is affected [72][75]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China maintain strong growth, and the domestic and export markets are both active. The demand for copper in new energy vehicles is expected to continue to grow at a rate of over 25% [79][80]. 4. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the US reciprocal tariffs and the Fed's policy affect the copper market, while China's "anti - involution + stable growth" policy is positive for the market. Fundamentally, supply is becoming looser, and consumption is mixed [85]. - Overall, the support for copper prices from the fundamentals weakens. It is expected that copper prices will adjust slightly in August, and the cost will still support copper prices in the medium term [86].