021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 铁矿周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 铁矿震荡偏弱 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/11 海外发运高位 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅% | 总成交量/手 | 总持仓量/手 | 价格单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE 螺纹钢 | 2969 | -6 | -0.20 | 8652225 | 3086173 | ...

棕榈油周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 美生柴政策提振 棕榈油或震荡走强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 | 合约 | | 6 月 13 | 日 | 6 月 | 6 日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT 豆油主连 | | 51.19 | | 47.43 | | 3.76 | 7.93% | 美分/磅 | | BMD 马棕油主连 | | 3927 | | 3917 | | 10 | 0.26% | 林 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The macro - environment is unstable due to uncertainties in Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's policy inclination. Fundamentally, due to less aluminum ingot casting, limited arrivals, low social and exchange warehouse inventories, and approaching delivery, the near - month futures is strong, which is expected to drive the far - month futures to be strong and deepen the B structure. After delivery, the tight market situation is expected to improve, and aluminum prices need to return to rationality [3][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum price rose from 2451.5 yuan/ton to 2503 yuan/ton, an increase of 51.5 yuan/ton; SHFE aluminum continuous third contract rose from 19915 dollars/ton to 20060 dollars/ton, an increase of 145 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.1 to 8.0; LME spot premium increased from - 4.91 dollars/ton to - 0.42 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.5 dollars/ton; LME aluminum inventory decreased from 363850 tons to 353225 tons; SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 47792 tons to 46193 tons; spot Yangtze River average price rose from 20217.5 yuan/ton to 20422 yuan/ton, an increase of 204.5 yuan/ton; spot premium decreased from 80 yuan/ton to - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 310 yuan/ton; South Reserve spot average price rose from 20080 yuan/ton to 20262 yuan/ton, an increase of 182 yuan/ton; Shanghai - Guangdong aluminum price difference increased from 137.5 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.5 yuan/ton; aluminum ingot social inventory decreased from 50.4 tons to 46 tons, a decrease of 4.4 tons; electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased from 16980.03 yuan/ton to 16965.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.7 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit increased from 3237.47 yuan/ton to 3456.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 219.2 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - Macro: US May CPI and PPI data were lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of cooling inflation pressure, and the market increased bets on the Fed's interest rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to fall rapidly. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, easing trade tensions and boosting market risk appetite. China's May CPI and PPI data showed different trends. The total value of China's goods trade imports and exports in the first five months increased by 2.5% year - on - year. - Consumption: The weekly aluminum downstream processing start - up rate decreased by 0.4% to 60.9%. During the off - peak season transition, the start - up rates of some sectors declined, with aluminum cables and industrial profiles performing well, and the aluminum plate, strip and foil sector entering the off - peak season more obviously. It is expected that the weekly start - up rate of downstream aluminum processing may decrease slightly by 0.1 percentage points next week. - Inventory: As of June 12, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 460,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared with Monday; the inventory of aluminum rods in major domestic consumption areas decreased to 127,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with Monday [5][6][7]. Market Outlook The macro - environment is unstable. Fundamentally, due to less aluminum ingot casting, limited arrivals, low social and exchange warehouse inventories, and approaching delivery, the near - month futures is strong, which is expected to drive the far - month futures to be strong and deepen the B structure. After delivery, the tight market situation is expected to improve, and aluminum prices need to return to rationality [3][8]. Industry News - Kazakhstan's Prime Minister discussed the project prospect of building a vertically integrated industrial park in Kazakhstan with the founder of Orient Hope Group. The first - phase project plans to build an alumina plant with an annual output of 2 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum plant with an annual output of 1 million tons. - The 2025 industrial energy - saving supervision tasks for 2797 enterprises were determined, including energy - efficiency special supervision for key industries such as electrolytic aluminum. - In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 547,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.19%. From January to May, the cumulative exports were 2.431 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [9]. Related Charts The report provides 10 related charts, including price trends, ratios, premiums, spreads, and inventory seasonal changes of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum [10][11][16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals show supply increase and demand stability, with no significant improvement. The price increase provides hedging opportunities for the upstream, driving smelters to increase production. The cost of lithium spodumene and lithium mica has slightly increased. The lithium price was strong during the week due to macro - sentiment and market rumors, but was restricted by fundamentals and declined at the end of the week. The spot is expected to improve marginally, which may support the futures market. The government may strengthen management of car price competition, and new energy vehicle sales have accelerated in June. However, the market inventory has increased since late May, and the improvement in terminal consumption may lag in driving demand. Overall, the fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and the lithium price decline is expected to be limited [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Data - From June 9 to June 13, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), and domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) remained unchanged. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.36%, while the industrial - grade increased by 2.22%. The total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 3.58%. The price of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.64%, and the prices of cobalt - lithium oxide remained unchanged. The prices of ternary materials 811 and 622 decreased by 0.34% and 0.39% respectively [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulatory and Delivery**: As of June 13, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 32,118 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 60,420 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract 2507 was 147,400 lots [8]. - **Supply Side**: As of June 13, the weekly lithium carbonate production was 17,018 tons, an increase of 1,005 tons from the previous period. The price increase provided good hedging opportunities for salt factories, and production may remain stable. In mid - June, Zhongkuang's 40,000 - ton salt - lake production capacity will enter the market, and the proportion of low - cost lithium salt may increase [8]. - **Import**: In April, the lithium carbonate import volume was about 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. The import from Chile was 20,200 tons, and from Argentina was 6,850 tons. The export of lithium carbonate from Chile decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The import of lithium ore in April was about 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. The increase mainly came from Zimbabwe, and the import from Nigeria also increased. Although the shipment of some African mines was hindered, the overall shipment of African lithium mines was on the rise [9][10]. - **Demand**: - **Downstream Cathode Materials**: As of June 13, the production of lithium iron phosphate was about 65,938 tons, with an operating rate of 59.99% (an increase of 0.06 percentage points), and the inventory increased by 513 tons. The production of ternary materials was about 15,085 tons, with an operating rate of 47.95% (an increase of 0.14 percentage points), and the inventory decreased by 200 tons. The prices of ternary materials slightly declined, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate remained stable. In the short term, downstream replenishment may be limited, but terminal consumption improvement may drive raw material inventory depletion [11]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From June 1 - 8, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 202,000, a year - on - year increase of 40% and a month - on - month increase of 4%. The retail penetration rate was 58.8%. The government's policy to regulate "involution - style" competition may indicate that car prices have reached a bottom, which may stimulate consumers. As of May 31, there were 4.12 million subsidy applications for car replacement. The new regulation on payment to small and medium - sized enterprises may affect some car companies' cash flow [12]. - **Inventory**: As of June 13, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 98,615 tons, an increase of about 3,400 tons. The factory inventory increased by about 800 tons, and the market inventory increased by about 2,600 tons. The exchange inventory was relatively stable, and the market inventory increased significantly, indicating some downstream replenishment. However, the upstream inventory also increased, showing supply elasticity [14]. This Week's Outlook - The spot is expected to improve marginally, which may support the futures market. The government's regulation of car price competition may stimulate new energy vehicle sales. Although the new energy vehicle sales have accelerated in June, the market inventory has increased since late May, and the improvement in terminal consumption may lag in driving demand. Supply may remain relatively stable due to hedging opportunities. Overall, the fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, and the lithium price decline is expected to be limited [15]. Industry News - **Shengxin Lithium Energy**: The Indonesian lithium salt project is expected to supply in bulk in the third quarter. The company is also involved in the metal lithium business for solid - state batteries and is promoting the construction of a 2,500 - ton metal lithium production capacity project [16]. - **Zimbabwe**: It will ban the export of lithium concentrate in 2027 to encourage local refining. Last year, it supplied about 14% of China's lithium imports, and the produced lithium sulfate will still be shipped to China [16]. - **Tianci Materials**: Its Moroccan electrolyte project with an annual production capacity of 150,000 tons has been finalized, with a total investment of about 2.03 billion yuan [17]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on lithium carbonate futures prices, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, imported lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, supply structure, import volume, and the prices and production of related materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [18][19][24][27][30][31].

贵金属周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 中东紧张局势升级，金价再度走强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周黄金价格震荡上行，COMEX期金主力合约再度站上 3450美元/盎司上方，最高至3468美元/盎司，创近两个月 新高。主要因为中东地缘局势恶化，以色列空袭伊朗，再 次引发市场对中东地区爆发更广泛冲突的担忧，资金纷纷 涌向避险资产。而白银价格则呈震荡偏弱走势，COMEX期 银主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that US inflation data is weakening, labor market is stable, and there are certain results in Sino - US trade negotiations. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the US - Iran conflict may push up the US dollar index and put pressure on nickel prices. [2] - Fundamentally, the risk of resource disturbances has decreased as the Philippines cancels the nickel ore export ban. Indonesia's resource supply is tight, and the high ore price provides cost support. The demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak, and the supply side has also weakened, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. [2] - In the later stage, macro factors may cause periodic disturbances, and the weak fundamental expectation will continue. Nickel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - SHFE nickel price dropped from 122,710 yuan/ton on June 9, 2025, to 119,920 yuan/ton on June 13, 2025, a decrease of 2,790 yuan/ton. LME nickel price decreased from 15,421 US dollars/ton to 15,128 US dollars/ton, a decline of 293 US dollars/ton. [4] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,568 tons to 197,538 tons, while SHFE nickel inventory increased by 573 tons to 21,765 tons. [4] - The average price of high - nickel pig iron dropped from 960 yuan/nickel point to 947 yuan/nickel point. [4] - Stainless steel inventory increased from 893,000 tons to 917,000 tons, an increase of 23,500 tons. [4] 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Nickel Ore - The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines rose from 50 US dollars/wet ton to 51.55 US dollars/wet ton. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia remained at 41.3 US dollars/wet ton. The resource disturbance risk has been eliminated, but the supply in Indonesia is still tight, and the cost side is supported. [5] 3.2.2 Ferronickel - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 951.5 yuan/nickel point to 934.5 yuan/nickel point. In May, China's nickel pig iron production was expected to be about 26,260 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.15%. In April, domestic ferronickel imports totaled about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. In May, Indonesia's ferronickel production was expected to be 142,600 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase/decrease of 16.9%/ - 0.47%. The cost pressure on ferronickel plants is prominent. [6] 3.2.3 Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained at 27,815 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,000 yuan/ton. In June, the expected production of nickel sulfate metal was about 25,425 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 16.61%/ - 2.27%. The production of ternary materials increased slightly, but the demand is expected to have no increment. [7] 3.2.4 Macro and Fundamental Aspects - In the macro - aspect, US economic data is generally good, inflation is in a downward channel, and there are certain results in Sino - US trade negotiations. [7][8] - In the fundamental aspect, on the supply side, the smelting start - up rate has decreased, but the export window is still open. In terms of terminal consumption, the new - energy vehicle market had good sales at the beginning of June, but it is in the off - season, and consumption is difficult to boost significantly. [8][9] 3.3 Industry News - The Philippines' Senate and House of Representatives decided to cancel the nickel ore export ban clause in the final law, and the PNIA welcomed this decision. [12] - ITSS nickel - iron plant's No. 14 furnace was successfully restarted after maintenance. [12] - Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved new progress, and the two sides reached a consensus on the measures framework to implement the important consensus of the leaders' phone call and consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks. [12] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides 10 charts, including the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless steel prices, and stainless steel inventory. [14][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, leading to a decline in macro - risk appetite. Fundamental support has increased, with a sequential decline in recycled lead supply due to environmental inspections and losses. However, consumption is in the transition phase between peak and off - peak seasons, showing no obvious recovery, and inventory has increased slightly, slowing down the upward momentum of lead prices. Supply - side contradictions support lead prices to fluctuate strongly, but significant improvement in consumption is needed to effectively open up the upside space. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance around 17,200 yuan/ton [3][7] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From June 6th to June 13th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,780 yuan/ton to 16,945 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,974 dollars/ton to 1,992.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 18.5 dollars/ton; the SHFE - LME ratio remained unchanged at 8.50. The SHFE inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 49,811 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 264,975 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.08 million tons to 5.47 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 205 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the price center of the main SHFE lead contract PB2507 moved up, mainly boosted by the production cuts of recycled lead smelters in Inner Mongolia and Anhui due to environmental inspections. However, the increase was slowed down by the inventory increase, and it finally closed at 16,945 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.98%. The LME lead price maintained a sideways shock, closing at 1,992 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.91%. In the spot market, by June 13th, the price of Chihong and Honglu lead in the Shanghai market was 16,930 - 16,980 yuan/ton, at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2507 contract. The ex - factory prices of electrolytic lead smelters were firm, and recycled lead smelters actively quoted for sales. Downstream enterprises were more cautious, with fewer inquiries and weaker spot market transactions [5] 3. Industry News - As of the week of June 13th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 600 yuan/metal ton and - 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous week [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, inventory, lead price premiums and discounts, price differences between primary and recycled lead, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, production of primary and recycled lead, social inventory of lead ingots, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation shows progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and proposed real - estate policy optimization in Guangzhou. The industrial data last week was poor, with both output and apparent demand declining. Hot - rolled coils have been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, affected by the slowdown in manufacturing steel use and weakening exports. The apparent demand for rebar has declined month - on - month, dragged down by the terminal real - estate and seasonal weakening of demand. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate weakly [1][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change % | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 2969 | - 6 | - 0.20 | 8652225 | 3086173 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3082 | - 10 | - 0.32 | 2922804 | 1566756 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 704.0 | - 3.5 | - 0.49 | 1262009 | 716699 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 774.5 | - 4.0 | - 0.51 | 6009851 | 695773 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1349.5 | - 1.0 | - 0.07 | 158036 | 56573 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a volatile trend, with weak supply and demand and limited macro - support, resulting in a lack of upward momentum for steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2900 (0) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3080 (- 40) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were at 3180 (- 20) yuan/ton [4]. Industry News 1. The China Iron and Steel Association called on the steel and automotive industries to break the "involution" [6][7]. 2. The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, achieving new progress in resolving economic and trade concerns [1][4][10]. 3. On June 13, 2025, the Israel Defense Forces launched an air strike on Iranian nuclear and military facilities [10]. 4. Guangzhou plans to optimize real - estate policies, cancel purchase and sales restrictions, reduce down - payment ratios and interest rates, and promote the renovation of old communities and villages [10]. Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, regional price differences, production, inventory, and apparent consumption from 2021 - 2025 [8][11][13][15][16][21][23][25][27][29][31][33][35][36][40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the alumina spot market has tight supply, and the continuous decline in warehouse receipt inventory supports the near - term prices, making them relatively resistant to decline. However, as alumina复产 progresses, the expectation of increased future supply is growing, and the support for near - term prices will gradually weaken. The near - term prices are expected to decline to find a reasonable range. Considering the firm bauxite prices due to Guinea's bauxite supply, the cost support is good, and the downward space is expected to be limited [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data | Category | 2025/6/6 | 2025/6/13 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2901 | 2852 | - 49 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3306 | 3287 | - 19 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 279 | 287 | 8 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 363 | 363 | 0 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | 85.69 | 44.27 | - 41.4 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 92468 | 80143 | - 12325 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 300 | 300 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 75 | 74.5 | - 0.5 | US dollars/ton | [3] Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract fell 1.69% last week, closing at 2852 Yuan/ton. The national weighted - average spot price on Friday was 3287 Yuan/ton, down 19 Yuan/ton from the previous week. - For bauxite, domestic bauxite supply remains tight. With strong profit recovery expectations for alumina, the procurement of bauxite is cautious, resulting in a situation of high prices but few transactions, and the price center of domestic bauxite has slightly declined. For imported bauxite, factors such as shipping schedules from Guinea have made enterprises cautious about spot procurement. Sellers still have a certain attitude of holding up prices due to the upcoming rainy season in Guinea, and the price game between supply and demand continues. - On the supply side, some alumina enterprises have resumed production after maintenance, increasing the alumina supply. However, the supply in some regions is still tight, and it is difficult to pick up goods. As of June 12, China's alumina installed capacity was 112.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 88.05 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.34%. - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guizhou have plans to resume production, and those in Yunnan may also release new production capacity. It is expected that the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will increase slightly next week. - In terms of inventory, last Friday, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 12325 tons to 80,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 300 tons [4]. Market Outlook - The bauxite supply was basically stable last week. Attention should continue to be paid to the impact of the political situation in Guinea and the rainy season on imported bauxite. On the supply side, some alumina enterprises are promoting the resumption of production, and the operating capacity of alumina has increased. However, after a long - term operation at a low capacity, the spot supply in some regions is slightly tight, and the overall supply pressure has not been clearly shown. The market spot price remains relatively firm. On the consumption side, the capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, but there is a relatively bearish view on the alumina price, and procurement is cautious. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory continued to decrease by 12325 tons last week to 80,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 300 tons. Overall, the current alumina spot market has tight supply, and the continuous decline in warehouse receipt inventory affects the market, making the near - term prices relatively resistant to decline. But as alumina production resumes, the expectation of increased future supply is growing, and the support for near - term prices will gradually weaken. The near - term prices are expected to decline to find a reasonable range. Considering the firm bauxite prices due to Guinea's bauxite supply, the cost support is good, and the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. Industry News - Ambassador Yang Renhuo of China to Guinea - Bissau attended the commencement ceremony of the bauxite exploration project of Chinalco in the Boé region of Gabu Province. - A public notice was issued for the new establishment of the mining right for the Xiaozaozhuang block bauxite mine in Zhongyang County, Shanxi Province. The mining right holder is Ningbo Kunye Trading Co., Ltd. The public notice period is from June 9, 2025, to June 20, 2025 [7]. Related Charts The report provides charts including alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina month - to - month spreads, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [8][9][11].

工业硅周报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 终端消费回落，工业硅反弹乏力 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 二、市场分析及展望 上周工业硅反弹乏力，主因全球关税疑云未散，国内宏观政策进入真空期，光伏供给侧 改革进入实质性阶段对原料需求打击较大。供应来看，新疆地区开工率恢复至 65%,川滇地 区开炉数小幅回升，内蒙产量平稳，但供应端总体增长有限；从需求侧来看，多晶硅产量供 应不确定性较大，拉晶 ...