1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish on glass (FG) and soda ash (SA) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, the demand for glass and soda ash was weak, and the supply was high, leading to a continuous decline in prices and a compression of industrial profits. In 2026, the weak demand will continue to suppress the upward drive of prices, but the supply elasticity will increase significantly under the influence of profit compression and policies. The fundamentals of glass and soda ash will remain loose, and prices may be more affected by supply changes [3][85][86] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Glass - In 2025, glass prices were under pressure and continued to decline. The annual average price of 5mm glass in the Shahe area was about 1,100 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.4%. The price fluctuations were mainly divided into three stages: continuous decline from the beginning of the year to the end of June, a rise and then a fall in the third quarter, and a continued decline under pressure in the fourth quarter. The futures price showed a contango structure, and the basis and inter - month spreads had obvious characteristics. The glass factory's profit was under pressure and fluctuated at a low level [4][7][14] 3.1.2 Soda Ash - In 2025, the supply of soda ash was strong and the demand was weak, and the price center of gravity continued to move down. The annual average price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area was about 1,286 yuan, a decrease of 32.2% compared with 2024. The price fluctuations mainly went through four stages: a slight rise before and after the Spring Festival, a sharp decline in the second quarter, a rise and then a fall in the third quarter, and a continued decline and a new low in the fourth quarter. The basis and spreads fluctuated slightly, and the annual structure was in backwardation. The alkali factory's profit was under pressure and decreased [24][28][32] 3.2 Glass Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Analysis - In 2025, the glass supply was mainly stable, with a slight increase followed by a decline. The production profit was under pressure, and the industry clearing was slow. In 2026, the glass factory's production profit will continue to be under pressure, and the industry may accelerate the clearing. The daily melting volume and start - up rate are expected to decline, but the reduction may still be insufficient [42][43] 3.2.2 Demand Analysis - In 2025, the glass demand was weak, with a slight improvement in stages. Real estate demand continued to decline, while manufacturing demand was resilient. In 2026, the overall demand will remain weakly stable, with real estate demand still under pressure and manufacturing demand maintaining a certain degree of support. The inventory is expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate [53][54][62] 3.3 Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Analysis - In 2025, the soda ash supply was at a high level, and the new production capacity was put into operation. In 2026, the production capacity expansion will slow down, and the production capacity will start to clear in the medium and long term. The supply elasticity of alkali factories is relatively strong, and the price will continue to fluctuate greatly due to supply disturbances [64] 3.3.2 Demand Analysis - In 2025, the demand for soda ash was weakly stable, with a downward trend. The demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass was weak, while the demand for light soda ash was relatively good. In 2026, the demand for soda ash will still be an important driving factor. The demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass is expected to weaken, but the overall demand still has strong resilience [74][75][84] 3.4 Summary and Outlook - In 2025, the downstream demand for glass and soda ash was weak, and the supply was high, resulting in an imbalance in fundamentals and a continuous decline in prices. In 2026, the weak demand will continue to suppress the upward space of glass and soda ash prices, and the industrial profits will continue to be under pressure. The prices may be more affected by supply changes, and the overall fluctuation range is limited [85][86]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term bullish stance on the lithium carbonate industry [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - Terminal demand (energy storage + new energy vehicles) is in the peak season, material production is basically flat, the social inventory transfer chain is smooth. The environmental assessment of the Shixiawo mine is in progress, and the supply pressure is alleviated. Demand provides mid - term support for lithium carbonate prices [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 97,650 with a rise of 100; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 95,050 with a rise of 100 [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2601 is 109,720 with a daily gain of 3.92%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 109,740 with a 3.94% gain; lithium carbonate 2603 is 109,940 with a 3.66% gain; lithium carbonate 2604 is 111,180 with a 3.52% gain; lithium carbonate 2605 is 111,400 with a 3.86% gain [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 1,318 with a drop of 8; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,825, lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,835 with a rise of 10; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 10,425, phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 11,800 [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 40,285 with a rise of 25; ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 163,400 with a rise of 100; ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 146,300 with a rise of 100 [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,600 with no change; the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 13,750 with a decrease of 5,140; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 20 with an increase of 120; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 220 with an increase of 120 [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 110,425 tons with a decrease of 1,044 tons, including 18,090 tons in smelters (a decrease of 1,071 tons), 41,485 tons in downstream (a decrease of 1,253 tons), and 50,850 tons in others (an increase of 1,280 tons). The daily registered warehouse receipts are 15,511 tons with a decrease of 17,447 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 103,940 with a profit of - 7,653; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 100,023 with a profit of - 6,161 [3]

Report Summary 1. Market Data Overview Currency Market - DRO01 closed at 1.27 with a -0.11 bp change; DR007 at 1.44 with a 0.21 bp change; GC001 at 1.48 with a 26.00 bp change; GC007 at 1.57 with a 6.50 bp change; SHBOR 3M at 1.60 with a -0.08 bp change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury at 1.36 with a -1.22 bp change; 5 - year treasury at 1.60 with a -1.49 bp change; 10 - year treasury at 1.83 with a -0.50 bp change; 10 - year US treasury at 4.16 with a 4.00 bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 657.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. With 668.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 1.1 billion yuan. Also, 40 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase agreements and 8 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits matured, and the central bank carried out 60 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase agreements. Additionally, 10 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations were conducted on Thursday and Friday [4] - This week, 457.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature (130.9 billion on Monday, 135.3 billion on Tuesday, 46.8 billion on Wednesday, 88.3 billion on Thursday, 56.2 billion on Friday). Also, 12 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits will mature on Monday and 30 billion yuan of MLF on Thursday. The central bank restarted 14 - day reverse repurchase operations to maintain market liquidity [5] Stock Index Market - Last week, CSI 300 fell 0.28% to 4568.2; SSE 50 rose 0.32% to 3004.3; CSI 500 remained flat at 7169.6; CSI 1000 fell 0.56% to 7329.8. Among Shenwan primary industry indices, commerce & retail (6.7%), non - bank finance (2.9%), social services (2.7%), basic chemicals (2.6%), and textile & apparel (2.2%) led the gains, while electronics (-3.3%), power equipment (-3.1%), machinery (-1.6%), comprehensive (-1.5%), and communication (-0.9%) led the losses [6] - As of the latest data, CSI 300 closed at 4568 with a 0.34% change; IF current - month contract at 4572 with a 0.5% change; SSE 50 at 3004 with a 0.19% change; IH current - month contract at 3004 with a 0.3% change; CSI 500 at 7170 with a 0.97% change; IC current - month contract at 7171 with a 1.0% change; CSI 1000 at 7330 with a 0.79% change; IM current - month contract at 7335 with a 0.8% change. IF trading volume was 138,604 (-5.1%), and open interest was 268,202 (-5.0%); IH trading volume was 62,859 (7.3%), and open interest was 84,913 (-1.4%); IC trading volume was 146,482 (0.0%), and open interest was 253,109 (-4.0%); IM trading volume was 219,389 (-2.3%), and open interest was 354,958 (-5.2%) [6] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, stock indices are expected to continue their weak performance due to the decline in market risk appetite near the year - end, poor November economic data, and limited policy signals from recent important meetings. However, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year, providing a layout window. Investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and odds [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pulp futures have been fluctuating wildly due to the tug - of - war between the "weak demand" reality and the "strong supply" expectation. It is recommended to be cautious and wait on the sidelines for unilateral trading, and a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy is recommended for inter - month trading [7] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Price Data - **Futures Price**: On December 19, 2025, SP2601 was 5430 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.15% and a weekly decrease of 0.44%; SP2609 was 5522 yuan/ton with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 0.32%; SP2605 was 5507 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11% and a weekly decrease of 0.51% [6] - **Spot Price**: On December 19, 2025, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600 yuan/ton with no daily or weekly change; Knitted Russian Needle was 5250 yuan/ton with no change; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4500 yuan/ton with no change [6] - **Outer - disk Quotation**: In December 2025, the outer - disk quotation of Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars/ton, up 2.94% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 540 dollars/ton, up 1.89% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars/ton with no change [6] - **Import Cost**: In December 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5721 yuan/ton, up 2.91% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4425 yuan/ton, up 1.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073 yuan/ton with no change [6] Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 69.1 tons with no change from September, and the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 131.8 tons, down 2.80% from September [6] - **Domestic Output**: As of December 18, 2025, the domestic output of broadleaf pulp was 25.2 tons, and that of chemimechanical pulp was 23.9 tons [6] - **Inventory**: As of December 18, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 199.3 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons from the previous period and a 2.1% decrease; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 9.9 tons [6][7] - **Demand**: The output of finished paper showed different trends. For double - offset paper, copper - plated paper, and white cardboard, the output had minor fluctuations, and the output of tissue paper also showed small changes [6] Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply Side**: Chile's Arauco Company's December coniferous pulp offer was 700 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; broadleaf pulp Star was 570 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton; natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton with no change. The international wood chip supply was tight and prices rose rapidly. APRIL and Bracel under the Golden Eagle Group raised the price of bleached broadleaf kraft pulp in Asia by 20 dollars/ton [6] - **Demand Side**: The demand side remained weak. The price of cultural paper among mainstream wood - pulp papers continued to decline, while tissue paper and white cardboard prices increased slightly [6]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 C TEE PA EH TS ing gov ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | 国贸期货研究院 | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0013700 | | | 2025/12/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | | | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘会 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 格厨房 2025/12/19 | 4323. 56 | 65. 75 | 4352. 20 | 65. 79 | 979.90 | 15376.00 | 974. 50 | 15350.00 | | (本表数 2025/12/18 | ...

旨期权数据日报 投资咨询号: Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2025/12/19 金融衍生品中心 李泽矩 从业资格号:F0251925 数据来源: Wind,国资期货研 Time to Matutity 行情回顾 成交量(亿) 收盘价 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(亿元) 指数 0. 23 827.17 32. 55 上证50 2998. 517 4552. 7926 -0. 59 3821. 02 沪深300 151. 68 7272. 4024 -0. 22 中证1000 3489. 84 200. 04 中金所股指期权成交情况 期权成交量 认洁期权 持仓量 认购期权 期权持企量 认购期权 日成交量 认洁期权 指数 持仓量 持仓量 (万张) 成交量 成交量 PCR (万张) PCR 上证50 0. 78 2. 59 7. 05 3. 97 3.08 4. 20 1.61 0. 62 沪深300 15. 23 8. 90 6. 33 0. 71 21. 36 11. 98 9. 38 0. 78 中证1000 33. 46 17. 38 0. 93 36. 06 17. 52 18. 54 16. 08 1. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The global shipping market is showing complex trends. The return of container ships to the Red Sea route is a significant development signal, but the actual impact on supply and demand is limited for now. The FEWB and TAWB routes are affected by factors such as ship - company capacity control, port congestion, and strong e - commerce demand, which support the freight rates at a high level during the Christmas and New Year period. In the EC market, the spot price is relatively stable, and the futures market is expected to move upward due to factors like the correction of previous extreme pessimistic expectations, coordinated price - holding by leading shipping companies, and improved supply - demand conditions [6][7][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is at 1506, up 7.79% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1118, up 0.29%. SCFI - West US is at 1780, up 14.84%; SCFIS - West US is at 924, down 3.75%; SCFI - East US is at 2652, up 14.56%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is at 1538, up 9.86%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is at 1510, up 0.07%; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 2737, up 19.00% [5] - **Futures Contract Price**: Futures contracts like EC2506, EC2608, etc., show different degrees of decline. For example, EC2506 is at 1270.5, down 1.03% [5] - **Contract Holdings**: Holdings of different contracts also have changes. For instance, EC2606 holdings are 2272, a decrease of 34 from the previous value [5] - **Monthly Spread**: The 12 - 02 monthly spread is - 44.2, up 23.6 from the previous value; the 12 - 04 monthly spread is 515.6, up 7.7; the 02 - 04 monthly spread is 559.8, down 15.9 [5] 3.2 Market News and Impact - CMA CGM announced that its INDAMEX route will pass through the Suez Canal, indicating a significant step for container ships to return to the Red Sea route. The traffic volume through the Bab el Mandeb Strait has reached the highest level since January 2024 [6] - On the FEWB route, shipping companies strictly control capacity in December, with a low blank - sailing rate of 0.9%. European ports are congested, and strong e - commerce demand supports freight rates. On the TAWB route, ports in Northern Europe and the Mediterranean are severely congested due to labor disputes, and there is a shortage of containers and trailers in many European countries [6] 3.3 EC Market - **Market Review**: The market shows weak fluctuations. Maersk's quotes for the first week of December are 2500, and 2700 for the route to London, the same as at the beginning of December, after previously announcing an increase to 3500 [7] - **Logic Analysis**: On the spot side, the price has stabilized at 2400 US dollars. Leading shipping companies' coordinated price - holding actions have strengthened market confidence. In terms of supply and demand, European seasonal stocking drives up cargo volume, and the weekly average capacity on European routes shrinks in late December. The limited progress of Red Sea re - navigation has not increased supply negatively. These factors jointly drive the futures market to move upward [9] - **Strategy**: Try to short the 02 contract with a small position at high prices [10]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: BR Rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - **Neutral (Oscillation)**: Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Nickel**: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - **Tin**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - **Lithium**: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon**: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - **Soybeans**: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - **Cotton**: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Wheat and Corn**: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - **Logs**: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - **Live Pigs**: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - **Bitumen**: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - **BR Rubber**: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - **PTA and Short - Fiber**: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - **Benzene - Naphtha**: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - **Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX price is strong, supporting the PX - naphtha spread. Despite stable PTA device operation and consumption, PX cost is high and PTA profit is under pressure. However, integrated enterprises' economic benefits are improved. Polyester load is high, PTA consumption is high, and the market's willingness to buy domestic products increases. Although domestic demand weakens seasonally, polyester factories have low inventory and low willingness to cut production. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth [2] - The price of ethylene glycol lacks effective support due to high port inventory and falling coal prices. New device production increases supply pressure, but increased polyester export inquiries are expected to support downstream demand [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - INE crude oil price rose from 426.7 yuan/barrel on December 17th to 429.4 yuan/barrel on December 18th, an increase of 2.7 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC increased from 1583.1 yuan/ton to 1627.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 44.38 yuan/ton. PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.5105 to 1.5216, an increase of 0.0110. CFR China PX increased from 834 to 840, an increase of 7. PX - naphtha spread increased from 298 to 307, an increase of 9 [2] - PTA main contract futures price rose from 4684 yuan/ton to 4748 yuan/ton, an increase of 64 yuan/ton. PTA spot price rose from 4605 yuan/ton to 4650 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee increased from 164.2 yuan/ton to 173.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.7 yuan/ton. Disk processing fee increased from 243.2 yuan/ton to 271.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.7 yuan/ton. Main contract basis increased from - 13 to - 11, an increase of 2. PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 134143 to 128925, a decrease of 5218 [2] - MEG main contract futures price rose from 3758 yuan/ton to 3767 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha increased from - 142.63 yuan/ton to - 141.82 yuan/ton. MEG domestic price remained at 3667 yuan/ton. Main contract basis increased from - 32 to - 25, an increase of 7 [2] 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 86.48%. PTA start - up rate remained at 74.77%. MEG start - up rate remained at 60.43%. Polyester load remained at 88.41% [2] 3.3 Product Price and Cash Flow - POY150D/48F price decreased from 6285 to 6225, a decrease of 60. POY cash flow decreased from - 131 to - 229, a decrease of 98. FDY150D/96F price remained at 6525. FDY cash flow decreased from - 391 to - 429, a decrease of 38. DTY150D/48F price remained at 7685. DTY cash flow decreased from 69 to 31, a decrease of 38 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple price increased from 6340 to 6350, an increase of 10. Polyester staple cash flow decreased from 274 to 246, a decrease of 28 [2] - Semi - bright chip price increased from 5460 to 5465, an increase of 5. Chip cash flow decreased from - 56 to - 89, a decrease of 33 [2] 3.4 Sales Volume - Filament sales volume remained at 46%. Polyester staple sales volume remained at 76%. Chip sales volume remained at 116% [2] 3.5 Device Maintenance - A 2.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China is restarting and is expected to produce products soon. It stopped for maintenance around November 17th [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metal prices are expected to remain high. However, the opening of positions by Guangzhou Futures Exchange and speculative investors may cause price fluctuations, especially for silver. It is recommended to wait and see or mainly buy call options in the short - term [5]. - In the long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties will continue due to great - power competition and de - globalization. The huge US debt and weakened Fed independence will increase the risk of the US dollar's credit. The allocation demand from global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. So, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Spread Information - **Price Changes on December 18, 2025**: London gold spot rose 0.1% to $4333.58 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.5% to $66.43 per ounce. COMEX gold rose 0.1% to $4363.80 per ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.4% to $66.58 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures (AU2602) rose 0.1% to 980.5 yuan per gram, Shanghai silver futures (AG2602) rose 0.1% to 15521 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Spread Changes**: Gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 5.8 yuan per gram on December 18, with a - 2.2% change from the previous day. Silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 26 yuan per kilogram, with a - 23.5% change [5]. Position and Inventory Information - **COMEX Gold Positions**: As of December 2, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 261331 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 43771 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 217560 contracts [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE gold inventory decreased 0.01% to 91716 kilograms on December 18, 2025, while SHFE silver inventory increased 0.03% to 912164 kilograms [5]. Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Market Index Information - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Changes**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.06 on December 18, 2025, with a 0.01% change. The US dollar index rose 0.18% to 98.40, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.29% to 3.49%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.24% to 4.16% [5]. Market Analysis - **Market Review**: On December 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.33% to 980.5 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 3.44% to 15512 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US November inflation rate was 2.7%, lower than market expectations. The US November PCE price index was 2.8%, the lowest since March 2020. The data increased expectations of interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank remained unchanged and sent a hawkish signal, and the US dollar index was under pressure. Geopolitical tensions also supported precious metal prices [5].