证 券 研 究 报 告 注：股价为 2025 年 5 月 12 日收盘价 行业研究 电力设备及新能源 2025 年 05 月 13 日 华创证券研究所 风电行业周报（20250505-20250511） 推荐（维持） 周内陆风招标 2.8GW，中标均价为 1723 元/kW 风机数据跟踪：周内陆上风机招标 2.8GW 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 东方电缆 | 52.10 | 2.29 | 2.94 | 3.65 | 22.73 | 17.75 | 14.28 | 4.43 | 推荐 | | 中天科技 | 14.09 | 1.19 | 1.35 | | 11.82 | 10.41 | | 1.25 | 推荐 | | 明阳智能 | 10.67 | 1. ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The ratio of the Dow Jones Index to gold prices has dropped to 120.7, the lowest since March 2014, indicating overly pessimistic investor expectations for U.S. stocks[5] - The S&P 500 Index to gold price ratio has fallen to 177.1, the lowest since July 2020, suggesting that U.S. stocks are undervalued compared to gold in the long term[5] - U.S. manufacturing investment as a share of non-residential fixed asset investment has decreased to 5.6%, the lowest level since last year, reflecting challenges in attracting manufacturing back to the U.S.[17] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. GDP growth in Q1 was significantly impacted by net exports, marking the largest decline in 35 years[4] - U.S. labor productivity has increased by 65.1% since Q4 1991, significantly outpacing the Eurozone (28.2%) and Japan (20.3%) since Q4 2019[11] - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 Index is at 5.9%, exceeding the 16-year average by one standard deviation, indicating a favorable return outlook for equities[20] Group 3: Investment Flows - The total assets of five major Chinese stock ETFs have risen to $20.85 billion, remaining above $20 billion for four consecutive weeks, driven by renewed investor interest in Chinese assets[14] - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds is at 14 basis points, up 44 basis points from December 2016, indicating improved return expectations[23] Group 4: Currency and Commodities - The three-month USD/JPY options volatility has increased to 12, potentially limiting Japanese corporate earnings and wage growth[8] - The copper-to-gold price ratio has dropped to 2.8, while the offshore RMB exchange rate has risen to 7.2, indicating a narrowing divergence and consistent signals between RMB and copper prices[29]

证 券 研 究 报 告 风电行业月度跟踪报告 4 月广东 2.5GW 海风项目海缆开标，陆风中 推荐（维持） 标均价为 1554 元/kW 招标量：1-4 月风机招标 33.6GW，同比 23.2% 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 东方电缆 | 52.10 | 2.29 | 2.94 | 3.65 | 22.73 | 17.75 | 14.28 | 4.43 | 推荐 | | 中天科技 | 14.09 | 1.19 | 1.35 | | 11.82 | 10.41 | | 1.25 | 推荐 | | 明阳智能 | 10.67 | 1.11 | 1.42 | | 9.64 | 7.53 | | 0.79 | 推荐 | | 时代新材 | 11.90 | 0 ...

1）产品：高性价比与强大产品力兼具。公司的拼搭角色类玩具在定价公道， 设计精美的同时，为消费者提供出众拼搭互动体验； 2）渠道：线下渠道布局深入，线上运营能力优秀。线下渠道方面，公司与广 泛经销商开展合作，已覆盖所有一二线城市及绝大部分三线及以下城市。线上 渠道方面，公司通过官方、KOL/KOC 和 BFC 账号等多重传播渠道触达消费 者，运作成效斐然； 证 券 研 究 报 告 乘 IP 东风，拼搭角色玩具龙头蓄势腾飞 当前价：129.60 港元 3）IP：授权 IP+自研 IP 双轮驱动，打造丰富 IP 矩阵。一方面，公司全产业链 运营自有 IP，IP 自主可控性持续增强，已成功打造百万级粉丝 IP 英雄无限、 百变布鲁可。另一方面，公司积极拓展 IP 授权，不断丰富 IP 矩阵； 4）营销：坚持内容驱动的营销策略，构建"官方账号-KOL/KOC-会员计划" 三层级内容生态，增强品牌影响力，加快 BFC 体系建设。高互动性玩法天然 具备传播属性，适配以内容驱动的营销策略。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Gree Electric Appliances, with a target price of 60 yuan [2][9]. Core Views - Gree Electric Appliances reported a revenue of 189.16 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.26%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 32.18 billion yuan, an increase of 10.91% [2][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 41.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, and a net profit of 5.90 billion yuan, up 26.3% year-on-year [2][5]. - The company continues to enhance its dividend payout ratio, proposing a cash dividend of 20 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, which represents 52.06% of the annual net profit [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the main financial indicators include: - Revenue: 190.04 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -7.3% - Net profit: 32.19 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.9% - Earnings per share: 5.75 yuan [5][10]. - The forecast for 2025 includes: - Revenue: 206.52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% - Net profit: 35.01 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.8% [5][10]. Market Performance - Gree Electric's external sales showed significant growth, with a 13.25% increase in overseas revenue, while domestic sales decreased by 5.45% [2][9]. - The company has successfully expanded its international presence, with notable sales increases in Brazil (75% year-on-year) and the establishment of over 200 exclusive stores in Eastern Europe [2][9]. Operational Efficiency - The report highlights a significant improvement in operational quality, with a net profit margin of 14.2% in Q1 2025, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][9]. - The company has implemented digital operations to enhance channel efficiency and reduce inventory risks [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][7][17]. Core Views - The company has turned profitable in Q1 2025, with significant growth expected in the mining sector by 2026 [2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in titanium dioxide and sponge titanium production, with strong cost advantages and global pricing power [7]. - The report highlights the stability of titanium dioxide prices and the company's robust production capacity, which is expected to support future earnings [7]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 27,539 million - 2025E: 30,386 million (10.3% YoY growth) - 2026E: 34,954 million (15.0% YoY growth) - 2027E: 39,100 million (11.9% YoY growth) [3][8] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 2,169 million - 2025E: 2,824 million (30.2% YoY growth) - 2026E: 3,821 million (35.3% YoY growth) - 2027E: 4,256 million (11.4% YoY growth) [3][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 0.91 - 2025E: 1.18 - 2026E: 1.60 - 2027E: 1.78 [3][8] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 18 for 2024, decreasing to 9 by 2027 [3][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong market position with a titanium dioxide production capacity that ranks first globally, and it is actively expanding its titanium ore resources [7]. - A strategic partnership with Sichuan Resource Group aims to enhance the company's control over mineral resources, which is expected to solidify its market position [7]. - The report notes that the company’s operational efficiency and production capacity are superior to industry averages, with a utilization rate of 85.79% in 2024 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [19]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.187 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.47%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.823 billion yuan, up 30.00% year-on-year [2][4]. - The advertising and internet business promotion services saw significant growth, with revenues reaching 2.025 billion yuan, a 49.00% increase year-on-year, driven by a recovery in the securities market [8]. - The company is enhancing its AI capabilities through the HithinkGPT model, which has improved product competitiveness and user engagement [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: Total revenue of 4.187 billion yuan, net profit of 1.823 billion yuan, and a diluted EPS of 3.39 yuan [4][8]. - **2025-2027 Projections**: Expected revenues of 5.142 billion yuan, 6.115 billion yuan, and 7.042 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. Corresponding net profits are projected at 2.381 billion yuan, 2.910 billion yuan, and 3.505 billion yuan [4][8]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 59, 48, and 40 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [4][8]. Business Growth Drivers - The company is leveraging its extensive data and proprietary training frameworks to enhance AI model training efficiency, which is expected to drive future growth [8]. - The integration of AI technologies into various products has led to increased user engagement, with daily usage exceeding 3 million calls for its intelligent platforms [8]. Market Context - The company's performance is closely tied to market activity, with expectations of increased trading volumes in 2024 positively impacting its financial results [8].

核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 自媒体热度创近两周新高，杠杆资金净流入由减转增 ——投资者温度计第24期 2025年5月12日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 证 券 研 究 报 告 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 • 上周市场震荡上行，受5/7国新办发布会影响自媒体热度创近两周新高。 • 公募抱团趋势增强，风格偏向价值，行业偏向消费、电子；24/9/18至今公募重仓股四成领涨，行业集中于电子、 医药、军工等。 • 最近一周以小单衡量的沪深两市A股散户资金净流入618.0亿元，较前值增加148.3亿元，处过去五年18.8%分 位，净流入规模持续处于低位；融资资金净流入167.4亿元，较上周增加325.0亿元。 1.1、自媒体：热度创近两周新高 证 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 关税战下的美国库存"倒计时"——海外周 报第 89 期 ❖ 核心观点：美国库存可能形成关税到进口成本到终端消费价格传导的"缓冲 带"，那么美国库存能维持缓冲多久？ 1、从实际库销比来看，目前美国库存可能尚未反映其近期进口高增，仅以截 至 2 月库存水平来看，美国制造和贸易环节整体实际库销比约为 1.5 个月，若 考虑极端假设，制造、批发、零售商的库存均供给终端零售销售，则库存可覆 盖约 4.2 个月销售。 分行业来看，相对最易先受关税冲击（实际库销比相对偏低）的可能是家电等 电气设备类产品，相对不易先受关税冲击（实际库销比相对偏高）的可能是机 械设备，纺织原料及其制品等。 2、从 ISM 制造业 PMI 调查来看，截至 4 月，美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 自有库存 指数冲高回落，或反映企业在关税落地前"抢囤货"逐步降温。与此同时，客 户库存指数仍处于偏低区间，或指向整体制造业库存水平可持续时间堪忧。 分行业来看，4 月仍在增加进口量的行业、库存却均有所下滑，主要包括 1） 纺织品，2）金属加工制品，3）计算机及电子产品，4）运输设备。可能反映 库存水平相对 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 开立医疗（300633）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 24 年国内招投标承压，25 年有望明显好转 目标价：38 元 事项： ❖ 公司发布 24 年年报，全年营收 20.14 亿元（-5.02%），归母净利润 1.42 亿元（- 68.67%），扣非归母净利润 1.10 亿元（-75.07%）。单 Q4，营收 6.16 亿元（- 5.63%），归母净利润0.33亿元（-75.03%），扣非归母净利润0.24亿元（-80.00%）。 25Q1 营收 4.30 亿元（-10.29%），归母净利润 0.08 亿元（-91.94%），扣非归母 净利润 0.06 亿元（-93.49%）。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 2,014 | 2,387 | 2,855 | 3,431 | | 同比增速(%) | -5.0% | 18.5% | 19.6% | 20.2% ...