1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the supply and trading situation of local government bonds, including the overview of the stock market, the rhythm of primary - supply, and the characteristics of secondary - trading, presenting the current status and trends of the local government bond market [12][20][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Stock Market Overview - As of April 30, 2025, the stock size of local government bonds reached 50.51 trillion yuan, with the market continuously expanding. New special bonds accounted for over 43%, and refinancing special bonds accounted for 21% [12]. - Among the bonds with clear funding uses, the stock balances of shantytown renovation, new district construction in industrial parks, and rural revitalization exceeded 1 trillion yuan. The stock balance of toll roads exceeded 870 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects exceeded 200 billion yuan [12]. - As of April 30, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three in terms of local government bond stock size, all exceeding 3 trillion yuan. Other major GDP - contributing provinces such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, and Hubei also had stock sizes above 2 trillion yuan [12]. 3.2 Primary Supply Rhythm - In the week from April 28 - 30, 2025, with fewer working days, local government bonds worth 93.091 billion yuan were issued, including 116.707 billion yuan of new special bonds and 15.465 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/project revenue" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment areas for special bond funds [20]. - As of April 30, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in April had reached 261.669 billion yuan, accounting for 37.74% of the monthly local government bond issuance [20]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance proportion of local government bonds with terms within 7 years and 10 - 20 years was relatively high, both exceeding 30%. The average coupon rates of major - term local government bonds were basically the same as those two weeks ago [30]. - The spread between the issuance rate of 30 - year local government bonds and the same - term treasury bonds narrowed to 20.32BP, while the spread of 20 - year local government bonds widened slightly to 12.78BP. The upper limit of the bid - rate last week was basically the same as that two weeks ago, and the primary - tender sentiment rebounded significantly [30]. - Regionally, many provinces issued new bonds last week. Hunan had the largest issuance volume this month with a balanced term distribution; Heilongjiang followed, with terms mainly concentrated in 10 - 20 years; Jiangsu showed a short - term characteristic, all within 7 years. Most regions had an average issuance rate of 2% or lower, with Guizhou having the highest rate of 2.1%, and Shandong, Sichuan, Jiangxi, and Jilin also reaching over 2% [5][38]. 3.3 Secondary Trading Characteristics - Since mid - to - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been in a continuous downward - oscillation trend. As of April 30, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local government bonds was 1.88%, with a spread of 25.57BP compared to the same - term treasury bonds, at the 86% quantile since 2024. The quantiles of the price spreads of 15 - year and 30 - year bonds were 96.9% and 97.2% respectively [43]. - Last week, the turnover rate of local government bonds decreased, and the turnover rates of all - term varieties dropped significantly compared to two weeks ago. The 10 - year - plus varieties still had the highest weekly turnover rate, at 0.98%. Regionally, only Jiangsu and Zhejiang had over 100 trading volumes last week. The average trading term of local government bonds last week was 17.3 years, with an average yield of 1.98% [48]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local government bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local government bond supply, with a total net purchase of 24.16 billion yuan, of which the purchase of 20 - 30 - year and above varieties accounted for 63.13%. Wealth management products had a net purchase of 10.438 billion yuan last week, an increase compared to two weeks ago, mainly in the 5 - 10 - year and 10 - 20 - year varieties [50].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 13.69 per share based on a FY26 P/E of 20 times [4]. Core Views - The company is a leading jewelry retailer in China with a market share of 10% as of 2024, demonstrating strong brand power, product quality, and channel strength [13][14]. - The jewelry industry is expected to see a recovery in gold consumption, shifting the competitive advantage from channel strength to product quality [35][40]. - The company is focusing on product optimization and enhancing store operations to drive high-quality growth, with expectations for improved same-store performance and profitability [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 1929, has established itself as a benchmark in the jewelry industry, adapting its growth strategies through economic cycles and maintaining a strong market presence with 6,423 retail points as of Q1 2025 [2][13]. Industry Trends - The demand for gold jewelry is anticipated to bottom out and improve, with a notable shift in consumer preferences towards product aesthetics and craftsmanship [35][40]. - The market for gold jewelry in China has grown significantly, with a CAGR of 11% from 2018 to 2023, and gold products now account for 63% of the jewelry market [35][36]. Product Optimization - The company has a strong aesthetic foundation and has successfully integrated modern design with traditional craftsmanship, launching successful product lines such as the "Heritage" series and the "Palace Museum" series, each generating approximately HKD 4 billion in sales [3][58]. - The proportion of fixed-price gold products has increased from 5% in Q3 2023 to 25.6% in Q1 2025, which is expected to enhance gross margins [3][62]. Store Operations - The company has been optimizing its store network, closing 896 underperforming stores to focus on quality over quantity, with plans to slow down the pace of closures moving forward [3][84]. - New store formats have been introduced, which have shown better performance than average same-store sales [3][84]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of HKD 57.74 billion, HKD 68.36 billion, and HKD 78.36 billion for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively, with a projected P/E ratio of 18.4, 15.5, and 13.5 times [4][88].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13.69 per share based on a projected FY26 P/E of 20 times [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading jewelry retailer in China with a market share of 10% as of 2024, maintaining its position as the top player in the industry [2][13]. - The jewelry market is expected to see a recovery in gold consumption demand, shifting the competitive advantage from channel strength to product quality [35][40]. - The company has undergone a brand transformation to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions, focusing on high-quality product offerings and operational efficiency [46][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has nearly a century of experience in the jewelry industry, with a focus on craftsmanship and innovation, operating 6,423 retail points as of Q1 2025 [2][13]. - The company has a strong brand heritage and product aesthetic, integrating modern design with traditional craftsmanship [3][19]. Industry Trends - The demand for gold jewelry is anticipated to improve after a period of decline, with a notable increase in consumer interest in high-quality and aesthetically pleasing gold products [35][40]. - The market for gold jewelry in China has grown significantly, with a CAGR of 11% from 2018 to 2023, indicating a robust demand for gold products [35][36]. Product Strategy - The company has shifted its product strategy towards fixed-price gold products, which now account for 25.6% of its gold offerings, significantly up from 5% in Q3 2023 [3][62]. - New product lines, such as the "Chuanfu" and "Palace" series, have achieved sales of approximately HKD 4 billion each, reflecting strong market acceptance [58][60]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a decline in net profit for FY2025, followed by growth in FY2026 and FY2027, with projected net profits of HKD 57.74 billion, HKD 68.36 billion, and HKD 78.36 billion respectively [4][88]. - The expected revenue for FY2025 is HKD 87.566 billion, with a significant recovery anticipated in subsequent years [88]. Store Operations - The company has been optimizing its store operations by closing underperforming locations, reducing the number of inefficient stores by 896 to 6,274 by FY25 [3][84]. - The focus on enhancing store quality and customer experience is expected to improve same-store sales performance in the coming fiscal years [85][88].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the third consecutive "pause" since the beginning of the current rate cut cycle in September 2024, with a total reduction of 100 basis points across three meetings [2][3] - Concerns regarding "stagflation" risks have intensified, with the Fed emphasizing increased uncertainty in economic outlook and rising risks of high unemployment and inflation [3][4] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Fed's ability to provide clear guidance on interest rate paths is hampered by ongoing policy uncertainty, making it challenging to restart the rate cut cycle in the short term [4] - The Fed's stance on tariffs has shifted, acknowledging that announced tariff increases have exceeded expectations and could lead to rising inflation, slower economic growth, and higher unemployment if sustained [4] - The Fed's view on inflation has evolved, moving away from the notion of "transitory" impacts of tariffs, recognizing that the effects could be either "one-time shifts" or "persistent," depending on the scale and duration of tariffs [4] Investment Recommendations - Gold is expected to perform well amid potential "hard landing" scenarios in the U.S. economy, driven by factors such as a renewed Fed rate cut cycle, dollar depreciation, and increased central bank gold purchases [5] - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is anticipated to benefit from the Fed's rate cut cycle, with opportunities for excess returns in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5] - U.S. equities are facing a trend of adjustment rather than temporary fluctuations, with increasing economic downturn risks affecting profit growth expectations [5] - U.S. Treasury bonds may present a trend-based allocation opportunity only after inflation recedes, with potential for rapid interest rate increases due to repayment risks in the interim [5]

基本内容 "抢消费"、"抢进口"、"抢库存"、"抢设备投资"，是在关税乌云下美国经济活动前置的真实写照；近期美国经济一 些数据表现说明美国全行业都几乎处于关税到来前的"活动激增"状态，这种状态的持续性相对脆弱，也从某种程度 上掩盖了周期性走弱所带来的增长放缓。 美国经济的循环更可能呈现系统性的走弱，广泛而缓慢的发生在所有部门，并没有任何单一的实体部门具备明显脆弱 点；走弱的斜率将随着关税对实体经济冲击的显现而越发增加，也会随着特朗普其他"内政"的深入推进而产生更明 显变化。 因此当美国衰退逐渐成为"共识"之后，很重要的一点是不能只戴着关税"滤镜"来看待美国经济，关税视角的解释 效用正在下降，衰退来自于特朗普上任后更广泛的政策变化。 美国经济未来走出衰退，需要的不仅是关税战的偃旗息鼓，还有利率和通胀的自然回落，以及特朗普一系列排毒式的 "内政改革"取得成果。 风险提示 1）"DOGE"改革的进程推进节奏 2）特朗普关税政策巨大的不确定性 3）美国企业劳动力需求快速恶化 4）美国债务上 限难以解决导致政府停摆 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观经济点评 "抢消费"、"抢进口"、"抢库存"、"抢设 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with an expected increase of over 15% in the next 3-6 months [6]. Core Insights - The reform plan aims to innovate and restructure the quantitative assessment system, which is expected to influence institutional investment behavior, promote long-term investment, and encourage the development of equity funds, ultimately benefiting the healthy development of the capital market [4]. - The plan includes a mechanism linking management fees to fund performance, enhancing the "risk-sharing, benefit-sharing" ecosystem, which is anticipated to restore investor confidence and attract more retail funds into the market [4]. - The initiative emphasizes increasing the proportion of equity products, which, along with policies encouraging long-term capital inflows, positions public funds as a core force in institutional investment, likely improving market pricing efficiency and stability [4]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - On May 7, the China Securities Regulatory Commission released the "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds," outlining new regulations regarding fund operation models, assessment systems, and industry development [1]. Event Commentary - The plan optimizes fund operation models by establishing a performance-linked floating management fee mechanism, aiming for top institutions to issue at least 60% of their actively managed equity funds in this format within a year [2]. - It enhances the industry assessment system by emphasizing long-term performance metrics, with at least 50% weight on investment returns for executives and 80% for fund managers [2]. - The plan also aims to improve the compensation management system for fund managers, linking their pay to fund performance relative to benchmarks [2]. Investment Recommendations - The reform is expected to shift the industry focus from "quantity to quality," encouraging fund companies to enhance research capabilities and operational efficiency for competitive differentiation [4]. - The linkage of fees and performance is anticipated to lead fund managers to favor stocks aligned with their investment styles, potentially improving overall fund performance [4].

Group 1: Report on Central Bank's "Double Cut" and Its Impact on Bond Market 1. Policy Announcement - On the morning of May 7th, at a joint press conference of three ministries, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced 10 new monetary policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 10 - BP cut in policy rates and LPR, and a 25 - BP cut in structural monetary policy tool and personal housing provident fund loan rates [2][8] 2. Whether the "Double Cut" Constitutes Incremental Benefits - The combination of a 10 - BP OMO rate cut and a 50 - BP reserve requirement ratio cut did not significantly exceed market expectations in terms of intensity, but the announcement timing was a bit unexpected. For long - term bonds, the current rate cut does not provide enough space to break through the previous low. For short - term bonds, the "double cut" brings a clearer marginal benefit as short - term interest rates were relatively conservative in April [3][9][12] 3. Curve Evolution Logic - Historically, in the face of major event shocks, the yield curve first shows a bull - flat pattern, with long - term bonds reflecting risk - aversion or easing expectations in advance. After the implementation of policies like rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, short - term interest rates start to rise, driving the curve from bull - flat to bull - steep. The curve in the past month followed this historical logic [4][16] 4. Risk Assessment of Long - Term Interest Rate Adjustment - After the "double cut", major monetary policy actions in the second quarter may be mostly completed. From the perspectives of trading sentiment, cross - asset comparison, and fundamentals, the risk of a significant upward adjustment in long - term interest rates is not high, and they will mainly show a pattern of shock digestion and waiting for a new catalyst [5][18][22] 5. Future Potential Catalysts for Long - Term Interest Rates - Potential conditions for long - term interest rates to continue to decline may come from two aspects: if the fundamental pressure exceeds expectations, further opening up the annual rate - cut space; or if overseas trade negotiations fluctuate, triggering a sharp change in market risk appetite and increasing the demand for risk - aversion [5][26] 6. Medium - Term Focus - In the medium term, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of trade frictions on the domestic fundamentals, especially the impact on the financing demand of enterprises. The credit demand of export - related industries accounts for about 20%, and the marginal changes in this part of financing demand should be observed [6][26]

事件概况 国务院新闻办公室于 2025 年 5月 7 日上午 9 时举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国 证券监督管理委员会负责人介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况，并答记者问。 事件点评 一是资金面迎利好： 1）发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜介绍，降准 0.5 个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约 1 万亿元，并降低 政策利率 0.1 个百分点； 2）证监会主席吴清在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，全力支持中央汇金公司发挥类平准基金作用； 3）优化两项支持资本市场货币政策工具，将 5000 亿元证券基金保险公司互换便利和 3000 亿元股票增持回购再 贷款两个工具的额度合并，总额度变为 8000 亿元。宽松的货币政策以及支持资本市场的政策工具为资本市场创 造了良好的流动性环境，体现了监管呵护资本市场的决心与信心，有利于市场情绪的提升。 二是改革端有深化： 国新办发布会上，吴清主席表示大力推动中长期资金入市，抓紧印发和落实《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方 案》、抓紧发布新修订的《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》。预计未来基金公司将从"重规模"向"重回报" 转变，与投资者利益绑定，更利于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of $7.438 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36%, with a GAAP net profit of $806 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 2139% [2]. - The company anticipates Q2 2025 revenue guidance of $7.4 billion, with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 43%, impacted by an $800 million inventory impairment loss due to MI308 sales restrictions [2][3]. - The data center and PC CPU segments showed strong growth, with revenues of $3.674 billion and $2.294 billion respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 57.21% and 67.69% [3]. - The gaming segment experienced a revenue decline of 29.83% due to the absence of new console releases [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing iteration of its AI chip series, with significant revenue growth anticipated from the MI325X and upcoming MI350 series [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a GAAP gross margin of 50%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, and a Non-GAAP gross margin of 54%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Business Analysis - The data center business growth is attributed to the ramp-up of MI series AI chips and increased market share in server CPUs [3]. - The client segment's growth is driven by the bulk shipment of Zen5 Ryzen CPUs and preemptive inventory buildup due to tariffs [3]. - The company expects a total impact of $1.5 billion from AI chip sales restrictions, with $800 million expected in Q2 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Projected GAAP net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $2.614 billion, $3.827 billion, and $4.668 billion respectively, indicating strong growth potential [4].

Economic Activity Insights - The U.S. economy is experiencing a preemptive surge in activity due to tariffs, characterized by "grabbing consumption," "grabbing imports," "grabbing inventory," and "grabbing equipment investment" [2] - Recent data indicates that all sectors of the U.S. economy are in a state of heightened activity, which may mask underlying cyclical weaknesses [2] - The overall economic cycle is likely to show systemic weakening across all sectors, with no single sector exhibiting significant vulnerabilities [23] Consumption and Investment Trends - Private sector final purchases remain relatively robust, but this growth is largely driven by preemptive demand for goods, particularly durable goods [4] - Consumer spending is expected to weaken further, as income growth, particularly in non-farm payrolls, is showing signs of slowing down [6] - The wealth effect supporting consumer resilience is diminishing, with total wealth growth for U.S. households expected to slow down significantly in Q1 2025 [9] Labor Market Dynamics - Non-farm payroll data shows healthy job growth, but the demand for labor may face challenges as companies respond to tariff impacts [15] - Job vacancy numbers have been declining, indicating a cautious approach from businesses regarding hiring amid tariff uncertainties [20] Risks and Policy Implications - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies poses significant risks to economic stability, with potential for increased volatility [24] - A broader range of policy changes since Trump's administration is contributing to the economic downturn, suggesting that tariff perspectives alone may not fully explain the situation [23] - Future recovery from recession will require not only a resolution to the tariff conflict but also a natural decline in interest rates and inflation, alongside successful domestic reforms [23]