Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on supply-demand optimization and end empowerment in the aviation and direct express delivery sectors, recommending investments in these areas for H2 2025 [2][24]. Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is expected to see continued supply-demand optimization, with capacity utilization rates projected to exceed 2019 levels during peak seasons. Supply growth is anticipated to be limited due to a low number of existing orders and ongoing production capacity issues at Boeing and Airbus, leading to a backlog of over 6,500 and 8,600 aircraft respectively [2][24][52]. - Demand for air travel is projected to grow at a high single-digit rate, driven by stable economic conditions and improved visa policies, particularly for international routes. Passenger volume is expected to increase by 7% year-on-year in 2025, with a cumulative growth of 18% compared to 2019 [2][21][100]. - The report highlights that the average seat occupancy rate for the industry is expected to reach 84.1%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability for airlines [41][100]. Logistics Sector - The direct express delivery sector is positioned for growth, particularly with the application of unmanned logistics vehicles, which are expected to reduce costs and improve efficiency. SF Express is highlighted as a key player benefiting from this trend, with a market share of 64% in the time-sensitive delivery segment [2][15]. - The report notes that the express delivery business volume has exceeded market expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 20.1% in the first five months of 2025, totaling 787.7 billion packages [15][21]. Market Performance - The transportation sector has shown mixed performance in 2025, with a decline of 2.7% year-to-date, underperforming the broader index by 1.4 percentage points. The express delivery segment has seen the highest growth at 14.7%, largely driven by the performance of SF Express [6][11]. - The report indicates that the shipping and port sectors are experiencing high demand due to export activities, with container throughput increasing by 8.3% year-on-year as of June 22, 2025 [12][11]. Passenger Travel Trends - Passenger traffic in civil aviation has shown a robust increase, with a total of 3.1 billion passengers recorded in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [21][28]. - The report highlights that international passenger traffic is expected to grow significantly, with a 26% increase year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in international travel [25][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, suggesting a potential upside of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a significant transformation towards dividend insurance, with a strong intent and notable results. The proportion of dividend insurance in individual and bank insurance channels reached 98.9% and 88.6% respectively in the first two months, indicating a first-mover advantage in this trend [4]. - The company is expected to achieve double-digit profit growth despite a high base, with a projected net profit of HKD 30 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting an 87% year-on-year increase due to reduced income tax [4]. - The company's low valuation metrics include a PEV of 0.29X and a PB of 0.78X, indicating potential investment opportunities [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Insurance service revenue is projected to grow from HKD 107,489 million in 2023 to HKD 122,456 million by 2027, with a growth rate stabilizing around 3% [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from HKD 6,190 million in 2023 to HKD 13,596 million by 2027, with a growth rate peaking at 44.05% in 2023 and gradually declining to 10.16% by 2027 [10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 6.92% in 2023 to 14.71% in 2027, indicating improving profitability [10].

Group 1 - The report highlights the selection framework for sectors based on prosperity and structural changes, identifying high-growth potential in the gold and jewelry sector due to stable gold prices and shifting consumer demographics towards younger, fashion-oriented brands [4][24][28] - The beauty and personal care sector is noted for its strong performance driven by new trends and product innovations, despite a slowdown in content e-commerce channel growth [4][38] - The textile and apparel sector is experiencing growth through channel transformations and product iterations, with specific companies recommended based on their product-driven or channel-driven strategies [4][47][51] Group 2 - The jewelry sector has shown a significant increase, with a 36.41% rise in the index since the beginning of 2025, driven by the emergence of new brands targeting younger consumers [16][24] - The beauty care sector has also performed well, with an 11.26% increase in the index, outperforming the broader market, particularly through the success of domestic beauty brands [16][37] - The textile and apparel sector has seen a modest increase of 5.22%, with brand apparel outperforming upstream manufacturing, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [9][47] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the valuation methodology for new consumer brands, suggesting that traditional metrics like PEG may not apply due to the rapid changes in these companies [5][62] - New consumer companies are expected to experience rapid valuation increases in three stages: breaking into new markets, continuous innovation, and establishing a stable high valuation [5][62] - The report identifies specific companies within the gold jewelry sector, such as潮宏基, that are successfully targeting younger demographics and adapting to market trends [70][71] Group 4 - The report indicates that the gold jewelry market is experiencing a U-shaped recovery in demand, with a projected 14.13% year-on-year increase in retail sales for the second half of 2025 [26][28] - The changing demographics in gold consumption are highlighted, with younger consumers increasingly contributing to sales, shifting the focus from traditional investment to emotional value [31][32] - The beauty care sector is seeing growth driven by new ingredients and trends, particularly in the medical beauty segment, which is outpacing traditional categories [38][43] Group 5 - The report notes that the textile and apparel sector is in a weak recovery phase, with retail sales growth lagging behind overall consumption trends, but with potential for improvement [47][51] - The report discusses the impact of new retail formats and product innovations in the apparel sector, indicating a need for brands to adapt to changing consumer demands [51][53] - The report emphasizes the importance of channel differentiation for companies in the beauty and personal care sector, with successful brands leveraging online and offline strategies to capture market share [80][81]

Core Insights - The report suggests focusing on agricultural investment opportunities driven by price increases in key products such as beef and grains, policy reforms in the supply side, and recovery in downstream demand [5] - The beef industry is expected to see a price upturn after a period of losses, with a projected industry capacity reduction exceeding 10% [5][12] - The pig farming sector is anticipated to experience a slight decline in supply in 2025, with a focus on high-quality leading enterprises due to supply-side policies [5][45] - Poultry farming is facing supply disruptions, but demand recovery is expected to improve the market [5][87] Livestock Industry - Global beef prices have started to rise again after two years of decline, with May prices reaching $6.62 per kg, a 13% year-on-year increase [12] - China's beef consumption is projected to grow, with a total consumption of 11.52 million tons in 2024, up 3.84% year-on-year [22] - The domestic beef supply is expected to decline significantly due to a drop in cattle inventory, with a forecasted reduction of over 10% [22][24] Dairy Industry - China's raw milk prices have been declining since mid-2021, with the average price at 3.04 yuan per kg as of June 13, 2024, down 7.88% year-on-year [33] - The dairy industry is experiencing a significant capacity reduction, with over 90% of the industry facing losses [33] - A potential recovery in milk prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025 as supply-side capacity continues to decrease [38] Pig Farming - The pig supply is expected to increase slightly in 2025, with a projected output of 703 million pigs in 2024, down 3.3% year-on-year [45] - The average price of pigs is forecasted to be around 14.5 yuan per kg for the year, reflecting a decrease in supply pressure [45][54] - The industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with average profits for self-breeding and self-raising operations improving significantly [54][67] Poultry Farming - The yellow-feathered chicken market is stabilizing, with a projected output of 3.34 billion birds in 2024, down 7.18% year-on-year [92] - The white-feathered chicken supply remains ample, with prices stable as the market awaits demand recovery [98] - Long-term demand for white-feathered chicken is expected to rise, supported by improved efficiency and domestic breed replacement [102] Feed and Grain - The total feed volume is expected to increase due to rising pig inventories and improved profitability in livestock farming [107] - Grain prices are projected to recover from recent lows, influenced by external factors such as weather and international relations [117] - The report emphasizes the importance of grain security and the potential impact of trade relations on domestic agricultural costs [117]

Core Viewpoints - The wind power sector is viewed positively for short, medium, and long-term opportunities [3][4] - Short-term logic includes strong half-year reports and optimistic performance outlook for the second half of the year, driven by robust project initiation and revenue growth [4] - Medium-term logic highlights a reversal of three previously negative factors affecting investment sentiment in the wind power sector [4] - Long-term logic emphasizes the competitive advantages of wind power in the context of market-oriented trading and stable industry dynamics [4] Short-term Logic - The wind power sector is expected to benefit from strong performance in the first half of the year, with optimistic growth projections for Q2 [4] - The sector is experiencing a positive demonstration effect from strong stock performance of companies showing earnings improvement [4] Medium-term Logic - The three previously negative factors affecting the wind power sector have shown significant reversal: 1. Wind turbine price wars have shifted from deflation to inflation, with prices recovering since Q4 2024 [4] 2. The certainty of domestic offshore wind project advancement has significantly increased, with project approvals accelerating in 2025 [4] 3. European offshore wind demand has rebounded, with project returns improving due to supportive policies and decreasing interest rates [4] Long-term Logic - Wind power's output characteristics provide significant price advantages in a fully market-oriented trading environment [4] - The competitive landscape is expected to remain stable due to high barriers to entry and a customer base dominated by state-owned enterprises and large international energy groups [4] - There is substantial potential for export substitution across the industry chain, providing additional growth opportunities in overseas markets [4] Demand Outlook - Domestic wind power installations are projected to reach 110 GW in 2025, with significant contributions from both onshore and offshore projects [9][12] - The global wind power installation is expected to maintain a high level in 2026, supported by strong demand both domestically and internationally [5][6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines of investment: complete machines, offshore wind, and components [5][45] - Key companies to watch include Goldwind Technology, Envision Energy, Mingyang Smart Energy, and SANY Heavy Energy for complete machines [5] - For offshore wind, companies like Daikin Heavy Industries and Dongfang Cable are highlighted due to their expected performance in the growing market [5] - In the components sector, companies such as Risen Energy and Jinlei Technology are expected to benefit from seasonal production increases and price adjustments [5][70] Competitive Landscape - The wind power industry is characterized by a stable competitive structure, with limited new entrants due to high barriers and established market players [73] - The market share of leading companies has remained relatively stable, indicating a strong competitive position among top players [73][74]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The e-commerce sales during the "618" shopping festival saw a significant increase, with total online retail sales reaching nearly 2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of approximately 9.8% [4][5] - The "old-for-new" subsidy program is expected to see a decline in funding in certain regions, with central government funds being allocated in the third and fourth quarters [6] - South Korea's exports rebounded significantly in the first 20 days of June, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, driven mainly by semiconductor exports [9] - The real estate market shows weak performance in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with second-hand housing sales becoming the dominant force [11] - Rising tensions in the Middle East have led to a continuous increase in crude oil prices, reaching $78.9 per barrel, a 24.5% increase since the end of May [14] Summary by Sections E-commerce Growth - The "618" shopping festival in 2025 began on May 13, one week earlier than in 2024, leading to a notable increase in sales driven by government subsidies [4] - Total e-commerce sales during the event reached 855.6 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and 3C digital products [5] Old-for-New Subsidy Program - The central government plans to allocate approximately 138 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" program in the second half of the year, with an average monthly usage of around 23 billion yuan [6] South Korea's Export Performance - South Korea's exports in June showed a strong recovery, particularly in semiconductors, which accounted for 22.9% of total exports [9] - Exports to the EU increased by 23.5%, while exports to China saw a slight decline of 1.0% [10] Real Estate Market Trends - The transaction volume for new and second-hand homes remains weak, with second-hand homes accounting for 58.2% of sales in major cities [11] - The average weekly transaction area for new homes in major cities was 300,000 square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.5% [11] Crude Oil Price Trends - Crude oil prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with a direct impact on domestic inflation indicators [14]

Investment Themes - The report identifies three main investment themes: new consumption in home appliances, new manufacturing in home appliances, and leading companies in the black and white appliance sectors [3][61][72]. New Consumption in Home Appliances - The report highlights two investment opportunities: new product forms, particularly in handheld smart imaging, and new industry phases, focusing on the rapidly expanding market for robotic vacuum cleaners [5][33]. - The market for panoramic cameras is expected to grow significantly, driven by their functional and emotional value, with a projected market size reaching 250 billion yuan by 2024 [34][36]. New Manufacturing in Home Appliances - Companies with solid fundamentals and a focus on robotics are viewed positively, indicating a shift towards automation and advanced manufacturing processes [61]. - The report emphasizes the potential for companies like Yili to benefit from the aging population through the development of care robots, with expected revenue growth of over 30% in the coming years [66]. Performance of Leading Companies - The report notes that leading companies in the black and white appliance sectors are expected to maintain stable growth, with high dividend yields and strong performance metrics [72][79]. - The performance of major brands such as Midea, Gree, and Haier is highlighted, with their price-to-earnings ratios (PE) currently at 13.2x, 7.5x, and 12.1x respectively, indicating relatively low valuations [79][106]. Market Trends and Dynamics - The home appliance sector has faced challenges in 2025, with the industry index showing a decline of 2.7% year-to-date as of June 18, 2025, influenced by tariff disruptions and high base expectations for the second half of the year [12][13]. - The report indicates a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with home appliance components showing a positive growth of 11.7%, while other categories like white goods and kitchen appliances experienced declines [12]. Export Performance - Despite tariff impacts, the home appliance export market remains resilient, with a cumulative export growth of 6.1% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [24][29]. - The report notes that exports to North America have been significantly affected by tariffs, while markets in Europe and emerging economies continue to show strong growth [29][31]. Pricing and Competition - The report discusses the competitive landscape, noting that leading brands are adjusting their pricing strategies to maintain market share amidst a backdrop of fluctuating demand and competitive pressures [99][101]. - The pricing dynamics in the air conditioning market are highlighted, with a noted decrease in average prices by 15% year-on-year, impacting brand performance differently [88][91].

Group 1: Virtual Assets and Stablecoins - The trend of virtual assets is continuously improving due to the enhancement of regulatory frameworks and increased institutional participation, with expectations of liquidity easing [2][18][25] - The global stablecoin market is projected to grow significantly, from approximately $5 billion in 2020 to around $200 billion by the end of 2024, indicating a clear expansion path for trading scenarios [25][26] - Various regions are implementing stablecoin policies, such as the U.S. passing the "Genius Act" and Hong Kong enacting the "Stablecoin Ordinance," which will take effect on August 1, 2025 [25][29] Group 2: Streaming Platforms - Music streaming platforms are identified as high-quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, with continuous scale effects driving profit leverage [2] - The market for music subscriptions is expected to grow, with major players like Spotify and Tencent Music holding significant market shares [33] Group 3: O2O Service Platforms - The trend of strong players becoming stronger is evident, with major platforms like Beike and Tuhu expected to increase market share amid a shrinking real estate and automotive aftermarket demand [2][39] - The used housing transaction volume in key cities showed a month-on-month decline, indicating a buyer's market, which may benefit established platforms [39] Group 4: Coffee, Tea, and E-commerce Delivery Platforms - The online retail sales of physical goods grew by 6.3% year-on-year from January to May 2025, indicating a competitive landscape where marketing expenses are rising [2][56] - The coffee and tea segment is highlighted as a key beneficiary in the delivery battle, with significant growth in order volumes and city coverage [68][75] Group 5: K12 Education and Training - The K12 education sector is experiencing a resurgence in non-subject training demand, with a significant reduction in subject-based training institutions, leading to a scarcity of quality compliant products [2][86] - Major players in the K12 sector, such as New Oriental and TAL Education, are showing strong performance with revenue growth exceeding 20% year-on-year [91]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry [6] Core Insights - The hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry is expected to enter a rapid growth phase in 2025, with significant advancements in fuel cell vehicles and green hydrogen projects [5] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on hydrogen and fuel cell manufacturing as the main investment lines, recommending specific companies for attention [5] Industry Data Review - In May, the installed capacity of fuel cell systems reached 333.30 MW, a year-on-year decrease of 64.7%, primarily due to delays in the promotion of demonstration city clusters [12] - The cumulative installed capacity from January to May 2025 was 255.58 MW, reflecting a 7% year-on-year decline, indicating cyclical fluctuations in the industry [12] - Fuel cell vehicle insurance registrations in May were 122 units, down 84.26% year-on-year, with a total of 1,367 units registered from January to May 2025, a decrease of 33.2% [20] - The report notes that the Guangdong demonstration city cluster led in vehicle deployment with 83 units in May, while the cumulative deployment from January to May was 332 units [35] Company Performance - YunTao Hydrogen Energy ranked first in May with an installed capacity of 22,010 kW, accounting for 66% of the market, followed by Dongfang Electric and Hyundai [23] - In terms of vehicle insurance, SANY Automotive led in May with 62 units, representing 50.8% of the market share [32] - Cumulatively, from January to May 2025, China National Heavy Duty Truck ranked first in insurance registrations with 510 units, followed by Hyundai with 204 units [32] Green Hydrogen Projects - Green hydrogen demonstration projects have seen a total of 788.76 MW tendered, a 35% year-on-year increase, indicating a growing interest in large-scale projects [42] - The cumulative planned capacity for green hydrogen projects has reached 6.61 million tons, with an operational rate of 31.6% [50] Policy Developments - The report outlines that multiple supportive policies have been introduced at both national and local levels to accelerate the commercialization of hydrogen energy [36][38] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved seven hydrogen industry standards, effective from November 1, 2025, to facilitate the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles [40]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the unexpected strong performance of long-term credit bonds, with the China Bond 10-year and above implied AA+ full price index increasing by 0.9% in the past week and 1.5% for the month [2][12] - The report identifies four key characteristics of the current long-term credit bond trading: accelerated allocation pace, significant decline in transaction yields, strong performance of 20 to 30-year bonds, and increased trading volume [3][16] - The report notes that as of June 20, 63% of credit bonds with a maturity of over one year are concentrated at yields below 2%, compared to 59% at the beginning of January, indicating a need for mid to long-term asset allocation to achieve yields above 2% [4][46] Group 2 - The report discusses the different triggers for market performance in the interbank and exchange markets, with insurance and funds being the main net buyers of credit bonds over 7 years, and funds showing a significant increase in net buying [4][47] - The report emphasizes that the rapid decline in yields raises concerns, including the proximity of various bond yields to their annual lows, the lack of comparative advantage for long-term credit bonds against government bonds, and the increasing contribution of capital gains to overall returns [5][56] - The report suggests that while the short-term performance of credit bonds over 7 years is strong, the high demands on trading capabilities and the underlying market fragility necessitate a cautious approach, recommending a focus on 3-year city investment bonds for better opportunities [5][31]