Core Conclusions - The market has experienced wide fluctuations since November, primarily due to entering an earnings and policy vacuum period, making it sensitive to uncertain events and negative factors. Weak economic data and overseas market disturbances may exacerbate market volatility. Additionally, the slowdown in resident capital inflows has extended the time for market consolidation after reaching a high turnover rate during the bull market [2][10][11]. Conditions for Index Breakthrough Condition 1: Incremental Policy Catalysts - The potential for unexpected stable growth policies to be implemented ahead of schedule could advance the spring market. The focus should be on the policy direction set by the Central Economic Work Conference in December. Historically, the probability of market success increases as the conference date approaches, with a significant rise expected post-conference [3][19][22]. Condition 2: Improvement in Economic Data (Earnings) - For a bull market driven by earnings, continuous improvement in economic data is essential. Current PMI is below the threshold, and other economic indicators such as industrial production and real estate data are weak. Significant improvements in economic data may not be seen until early 2026, as social financing and credit data typically peak at the beginning of the year [3][20][25]. Condition 3: Significant Inflows of Resident Capital - A breakthrough in a bull market, especially during a liquidity-driven phase, is often accompanied by substantial inflows of resident capital. Recent months have shown a slowdown in the inflow of funds, indicating that the current capital environment is not robust. The potential for increased capital inflows may be catalyzed by a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but improvements are more likely in Q1 2026 due to typically higher liquidity and activity levels at the start of the year [3][25][27]. Market Changes - The A-share market has seen all major indices rise, with notable gains in the ChiNext 50 and ChiNext Index. The communication and electronics sectors led the gains, while oil and banking sectors faced declines. Global markets also showed positive trends, with significant increases in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 [35][36]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a tactical approach where the foundation of the bull market remains solid, with potential for earnings improvement and capital inflows to extend the bull market duration. Strategic positioning should consider the upcoming policy and capital changes that may present upward opportunities [29][32]. Sector Allocation - Recommended sectors for investment include non-bank financials, electric equipment, and machinery, with a focus on low-valuation value stocks. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy catalysts and the potential for significant performance in low-valuation sectors as the market outlook evolves [34][33].

库存 中 降，钢价震荡偏强 【】【】[Table_Industry] 钢铁 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 30 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [高Table_Author] 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [库存稳中有 Table_Title]降，钢价震荡偏强 本期内容提要： 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_ReportDate] ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The cumulative installed power generation capacity in China increased by 17.3% year-on-year as of October 2025, reaching 3.75 billion kilowatts [5] - The report highlights a significant increase in solar power generation capacity, which grew by 43.8% year-on-year, while wind power capacity increased by 21.4% [5] - The report indicates that the electricity market is expected to see a gradual increase in prices due to ongoing market reforms and supply-demand dynamics [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of November 28, the utility sector rose by 0.9%, underperforming the broader market, which increased by 1.6% [12] - The electricity sector specifically saw a 0.65% increase, while the gas sector rose by 3.27% [16] Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Q5500) decreased by 9 CNY/ton week-on-week, settling at 818 CNY/ton [22] - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 400,000 tons week-on-week, totaling 6 million tons [29] - Daily coal consumption in 17 inland provinces rose by 30,000 tons/day week-on-week, reaching 3.541 million tons [31] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in China was 4,312 CNY/ton as of November 28, down 3.88% year-on-year [56] - The U.S. HH spot price increased by 15.3% week-on-week, reaching 4.59 USD/MMBtu, while the European TTF price decreased by 5.6% [59] - The total natural gas supply in the EU for week 47 was 6.23 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 8.0% [64] Key Industry News - The National Energy Administration reported that the average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 260 hours year-on-year, totaling 2,619 hours [5] - The cumulative geological reserves of coalbed methane in China exceeded 700 billion cubic meters as of October 2025 [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading coal power companies such as Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Huadian International, as well as regional leaders in tight electricity supply areas [5] - For natural gas, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are recommended, including Xin'ao and Guanghui Energy [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the recycling plastic industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The recycling plastic industry is expected to enter a golden development period, driven by increasing global plastic recycling policies and market demand [4][24] - China is the world's largest plastic producer, with a projected production of 77.076 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. However, the recycling market remains small, with a recycling rate of approximately 25% [18][24] - Global waste plastic has reached 9.2 billion tons, with only 9% being recycled. The EU aims for a 55% recycling rate for plastic packaging by 2030, while the US and India target 30% and 25% respectively [24] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of November 28, the environmental sector rose by 0.7%, underperforming the broader market, which increased by 1.1% [4][11] - The water management sector increased by 1.06%, while the waste incineration sector decreased by 1.07% [14] Industry Dynamics - The 2025 Energy Transition Conference held in Beijing focused on green energy transformation, highlighting hydrogen energy as a key area of interest [26] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is publicizing the list of proposed ecological civilization demonstration zones for 2025 [26] Special Research - The recycling plastic market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a recycling volume of 19.5 million tons in 2024, indicating a substantial gap compared to developed countries [18][19] - The recycling sources are diverse, with PET bottles accounting for 21.8% of the recycled materials in 2024 [19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the environmental quality and industrial green development will maintain high prosperity, with a focus on energy conservation and resource recycling [46] - Key recommended companies include Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to Wangneng Environment and others [46]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the successful establishment of the first large-capacity all-solid-state battery production line in China, which is expected to address key issues in electric vehicle range and safety [24] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to promote reforms in automotive circulation and consumption, aiming to expand the entire automotive consumption chain [24] - The report notes that the A-share automotive sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 3.24%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.64% [3][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 3.24%, ranking 11th among A-share Shenwan first-level industries [3][9] - Key stocks leading the performance include GAC Group and BYD in the passenger vehicle sector, and King Long and CIMC Vehicles in the commercial vehicle sector [6][21][22] Industry News - The establishment of the first large-capacity all-solid-state battery production line marks a significant advancement in battery technology [24] - The Ministry of Commerce is set to implement automotive circulation consumption reform trials to boost overall automotive consumption [24] - Anhui Province has initiated a new round of consumer subsidies for automotive purchases, providing varying amounts based on vehicle price [24] - Leap Motor has achieved its 2025 sales target of 500,000 vehicles ahead of schedule and aims for 1 million vehicles in 2026 [24] - A new automotive consumption promotion policy has been launched in Hangzhou, offering subsidies and vouchers for new car purchases [24] Key Data Tracking - The report includes tracking of key upstream data such as steel, aluminum, natural rubber, and lithium carbonate prices, which are crucial for the automotive supply chain [27][28]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3] - The content primarily focuses on market trends, fund flows, and sector performance without detailing any quantitative model construction or factor analysis[4][5][6] - No quantitative backtesting results or specific factor performance metrics are provided in the report[7][8][9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the petrochemical industry. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of production cuts in caprolactam on pricing stability, while the price spread for nylon fibers has narrowed [2]. - Domestic key refining project price spread increased to 2425.48 CNY/ton, a week-on-week rise of 29.04 CNY/ton (+1.21%), while international key refining project price spread decreased to 1277.36 CNY/ton, a decline of 151.77 CNY/ton (-10.62%) [3]. - Brent crude oil weekly average price was reported at 63.18 USD/barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.05% [2]. Refining Sector Summary - The report discusses the geopolitical situation regarding the Russia-Ukraine peace plan, which has led to fluctuations in international oil prices. Brent and WTI crude prices were reported at 63.20 and 58.55 USD/barrel respectively, with slight increases from the previous week [14]. - Domestic refined oil prices showed minor fluctuations, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6787.00, 7603.14, and 5905.76 CNY/ton respectively [14]. Chemical Sector Summary - The chemical products market experienced a general decline in prices due to weak demand, with notable decreases in polyethylene price spreads [2]. - The report indicates that the nylon fiber price spread has narrowed significantly due to rising costs in the caprolactam market, despite being in a traditional demand off-season [2]. Polyester & Nylon Sector Summary - Polyester cost remained stable, while nylon costs increased significantly, leading to a notable narrowing of the price spread for nylon fibers [2]. - The report mentions that the polyester upstream prices for PX and MEG have slightly decreased, while PTA prices have shown a slight increase [2]. Key Refining Companies Performance - The report provides stock performance data for six major refining companies, with notable weekly changes including Rongsheng Petrochemical (-0.92%) and Xin Fengming (+7.08%) [2].

Group 1: Profit Margin Decline - Industrial enterprises experienced an unusual decline in profit margins from January to October 2025, contrasting with the historical trend of improvement during the same period from 2020 to 2024[6] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises fell to a year-on-year growth rate of 1.9%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points compared to previous values[6] - Financial expenses are identified as a significant factor contributing to the decline in profit margins, with October 2025 showing negative profit growth year-on-year[6] Group 2: Consumer Goods Manufacturing Impact - The decline in profit margins is particularly pronounced in state-owned and foreign enterprises, while private enterprises maintained relatively stable margins[10] - Consumer goods manufacturing is the only sector within manufacturing that saw a decrease in profit margins, attributed to uneven domestic consumption recovery and challenges in passing on increased costs[10] - Public utility enterprises also faced a decline in profit margins, dropping from 7.05% to below 7%[11] Group 3: Ongoing Constraints on Profitability - The recovery of industrial enterprise profitability remains unstable, with ongoing constraints affecting the pace of recovery[17] - Limited recovery in factory gate prices and a slowdown in production rhythms due to anti-involution policies are contributing factors[17] - If price recovery in November and December is insufficient, there is a risk of a further decline in profit growth rates by year-end[17] Group 4: Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy measures falling short of expectations and geopolitical uncertainties[19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company, Aikang Medical, is a leading player in the domestic artificial joint market, benefiting from domestic centralized procurement and price increases, as well as successful international brand expansion. The orthopedic implant business is expected to maintain rapid growth. The company is also building a smart orthopedic ecosystem, with the K3 robot gradually commercializing, which is anticipated to support the strategic upgrade from a "manufacturer of implants" to a "provider of intelligent surgical solutions" [5][6][8] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Aikang Medical is a leading enterprise in the domestic artificial joint sector, focusing on smart orthopedic surgical solutions. The company has developed a diversified business system covering hip and knee joint implants, as well as spinal and trauma implants [18][20] 2. Domestic Market Dynamics - The company is leveraging centralized procurement to increase market share and profitability. The domestic market is seeing a shift towards the replacement of imported products, with a significant increase in hospital coverage and market share. In the first half of 2025, the surgical volume in high-level hospitals increased by 33% [14][51] 3. International Market Strategy - The company employs a dual-brand strategy to capture international market growth. The "JRI" brand targets the high-end market in Europe, while the "AK" brand focuses on emerging markets, leading to a compound annual growth rate of 20.8% in overseas revenue from 2018 to 2024 [15][55] 4. Smart Solutions and Business Model - Aikang Medical is a pioneer in smart orthopedic solutions, establishing a comprehensive ecosystem for orthopedic surgery. The K3 robot is expected to enhance the company's ability to provide a new business model that integrates consumables, services, and equipment [7][17] 5. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.548 billion yuan, 1.811 billion yuan, and 2.148 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 322 million yuan, 370 million yuan, and 437 million yuan [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Aladdin (688179) based on its strong potential for growth and strategic acquisitions [10]. Core Insights - The investment in Shanghai Youke is expected to enhance Aladdin's product line in laboratory instruments, allowing for bundled sales of reagents and instruments, thus creating a synergistic effect [2]. - The valuation for the stake in Shanghai Youke is considered reasonable, with a PE ratio of approximately 7.8 times and a PB ratio of about 1.8 times, indicating a solid investment opportunity [3]. - Aladdin's revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 show significant growth, with projected revenues of 6.49 billion, 8.60 billion, and 9.64 billion respectively, and net profits of 0.96 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.70 billion [3]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 403 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.6%. This is expected to increase to 534 million in 2024, representing a growth rate of 32.4% [4]. - The net profit for 2023 is 86 million, with a projected decline of 7.5% year-on-year, but is expected to recover to 99 million in 2024, reflecting a growth of 15.1% [4]. - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 62.6% to 62.9% from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong operational efficiency [4].