Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy is based on the analysis of basis convergence factors and optimization strategies, as detailed in the "Cinda Financial Engineering Derivatives Research Report Series III"[44] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: From July 22, 2022, to August 15, 2025[45] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[45] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and allocate the same nominal principal amount to short futures contracts of CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[45] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Continuously hold quarterly/monthly contracts until the remaining time to maturity is less than 2 days, then close the position at the closing price and simultaneously short the next quarterly/monthly contract at the closing price[45] - **Assumptions**: Equal allocation of principal between spot and futures sides, excluding transaction fees, impact costs, and the indivisibility of futures contracts[45] 2. Model Name: Minimum Basis Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects contracts with the smallest annualized basis discount to optimize hedging performance[46] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Backtesting Period**: From July 22, 2022, to August 15, 2025[46] - **Spot Side**: Hold the total return index of the corresponding underlying index[46] - **Futures Side**: Use 70% of the funds for the spot side and allocate the same nominal principal amount to short futures contracts of CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices, occupying the remaining 30% of the funds[46] - **Rebalancing Rules**: Calculate the annualized basis for all tradable futures contracts on the day of rebalancing and select the contract with the smallest basis discount for opening positions. Hold the same contract for 8 trading days or until the remaining time to maturity is less than 8 days before selecting a new contract[46] - **Assumptions**: Equal allocation of principal between spot and futures sides, excluding transaction fees, impact costs, and the indivisibility of futures contracts[46] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Continuous Hedging Strategy - **CSI 500**: - Annualized Return: -3.00% (monthly), -2.17% (quarterly)[48] - Volatility: 3.82% (monthly), 4.71% (quarterly)[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -9.01% (monthly), -8.34% (quarterly)[48] - Net Value: 0.9112 (monthly), 0.9351 (quarterly)[48] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[48] - 2025 YTD Return: -4.34% (monthly), -1.89% (quarterly)[48] - **CSI 300**: - Annualized Return: 0.42% (monthly), 0.57% (quarterly)[51] - Volatility: 2.97% (monthly), 3.32% (quarterly)[51] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly)[51] - Net Value: 1.0128 (monthly), 1.0174 (quarterly)[51] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[51] - 2025 YTD Return: -1.06% (monthly), -0.24% (quarterly)[51] - **SSE 50**: - Annualized Return: 0.98% (monthly), 1.87% (quarterly)[56] - Volatility: 3.08% (monthly), 3.50% (quarterly)[56] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (monthly), -3.76% (quarterly)[56] - Net Value: 1.0301 (monthly), 1.0583 (quarterly)[56] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[56] - 2025 YTD Return: -0.08% (monthly), 0.89% (quarterly)[56] - **CSI 1000**: - Annualized Return: -6.19% (monthly), -4.65% (quarterly)[60] - Volatility: 4.71% (monthly), 5.76% (quarterly)[60] - Maximum Drawdown: -14.01% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly)[60] - Net Value: 0.8362 (monthly), 0.8654 (quarterly)[60] - Annual Turnover: 12 (monthly), 4 (quarterly)[60] - 2025 YTD Return: -10.21% (monthly), -5.84% (quarterly)[60] 2. Minimum Basis Strategy - **CSI 500**: - Annualized Return: -1.32%[48] - Volatility: 4.60%[48] - Maximum Drawdown: -7.97%[48] - Net Value: 0.9603[48] - Annual Turnover: 17.36[48] - 2025 YTD Return: -1.85%[48] - **CSI 300**: - Annualized Return: 1.22%[51] - Volatility: 3.10%[51] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.06%[51] - Net Value: 1.0378[51] - Annual Turnover: 15.39[51] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.41%[51] - **SSE 50**: - Annualized Return: 1.64%[56] - Volatility: 3.10%[56] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.91%[56] - Net Value: 1.0509[56] - Annual Turnover: 16.05[56] - 2025 YTD Return: 0.97%[56] - **CSI 1000**: - Annualized Return: -4.02%[60] - Volatility: 5.56%[60] - Maximum Drawdown: -11.11%[60] - Net Value: 0.8720[60] - Annual Turnover: 15.97[60] - 2025 YTD Return: -5.09%[60] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market, with a term structure to capture expectations over different time horizons[62] - **Factor Construction Process**: Adjusted based on overseas methodologies and tailored to China's options market[62] - **Factor Evaluation**: Provides insights into market volatility expectations and serves as a valuable tool for risk management[62] 2. Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing market expectations of tail risks[69] - **Factor Construction Process**: Analyzes the slope of implied volatility to assess market sentiment towards extreme events[69] - **Factor Evaluation**: Useful for identifying market concerns about potential large-scale risks, often referred to as the "Black Swan Index"[70] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cinda-VIX - **30-Day VIX Values**: - SSE 50: 24.25[62] - CSI 300: 24.25[62] - CSI 500: 28.09[62] - CSI 1000: 27.87[62] 2. Cinda-SKEW - **SKEW Values**: - SSE 50: 100.82[70] - CSI 300: 105.10[70] - CSI 500: 99.01[70] - CSI 1000: 109.56[70]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the domestic power sector is expected to see profit improvement and value reassessment following multiple rounds of power supply-demand tensions. The ongoing market reforms are likely to lead to a slight increase in electricity prices, benefiting coal power enterprises [5][6] - In the natural gas sector, the report indicates that with the decline in upstream gas prices and the recovery of domestic gas consumption, the city gas business is expected to stabilize its gross margin and achieve high sales growth [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of August 15, the utility sector declined by 0.5%, underperforming the broader market, while the electricity sector fell by 0.78% and the gas sector rose by 1.75% [4][12][14] Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) increased by 17 CNY/ton week-on-week, reaching 695 CNY/ton as of August 15. The inventory at Qinhuangdao port rose by 200,000 tons to 5.67 million tons [4][22][32] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 12.61% week-on-week, with available days increasing to 23.9 days [4][34] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - As of August 15, the LNG ex-factory price index in China was 4,172 CNY/ton, down 15.60% year-on-year and 1.14% month-on-month. The domestic natural gas production in July was 21.6 billion cubic meters, up 7.8% year-on-year [5][58] - The EU's natural gas supply in week 29 of 2025 was 6.08 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% but a week-on-week decrease of 2.8% [5][65] Key Industry News - In July, the national industrial electricity generation was 926.7 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. The natural gas production in July was 21.6 billion cubic meters, reflecting a growth of 7.4% year-on-year [5][6] Investment Recommendations - For the electricity sector, it is recommended to focus on leading coal power companies such as Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Huadian International, as well as hydropower operators like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation [5][6] - In the natural gas sector, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are expected to benefit from market conditions, with recommended stocks including Xin'ao Co. and Guanghui Energy [5][6]

Domestic Developments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has further optimized ESG disclosure standards, aiming to enhance corporate ESG performance and promote sustainable development in line with the "Two Mountains" concept[11] - Guangdong has introduced the first systematic judicial guarantee document for carbon emission quota pledge financing in China, providing a framework for dispute resolution and supervision[14] ESG Financial Products Tracking - As of August 16, 2025, China has issued 3,640 ESG bonds with a total outstanding amount of 5.58 trillion RMB, of which green bonds account for 61.79%[27] - In the past month, 52 ESG bonds were issued, raising 27.8 billion RMB, while in the last year, a total of 1,053 ESG bonds were issued, amounting to 1.24 trillion RMB[27] - The market currently has 911 ESG products with a total net asset value of 1,022.116 billion RMB, with ESG strategy products making up 50.33% of the total[33] - There are 1,051 ESG bank wealth management products, with pure ESG products representing 54.52% of the total[38] Index Performance - As of August 15, 2025, major ESG indices have shown positive performance, with the Wind All A Sustainable ESG index increasing by 3.21% and the CSI 300 ESG index rising by 0.91%[39] - Over the past year, the Wind All A Sustainable ESG index has surged by 27.68%, while the CSI 300 ESG index has increased by 20.24%[39] Expert Insights - Liu Feng, Chief Economist at the Central University of Finance and Economics, emphasizes that ESG disclosure is becoming a key variable influencing bank valuation and sustainable value creation, urging state-owned banks to view ESG reporting as a catalyst for risk management and business innovation[40] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected ESG development, delays in the dual carbon strategy implementation, and insufficient policy advancement[40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the environmental industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The environmental industry has seen a surge in bond issuance in the first half of 2025, exceeding 30 billion yuan, primarily for cash replenishment and debt repayment [14][24] - The industry is characterized by a dual focus on "green" and "technological innovation" as reflected in the types of bonds issued [14] - The report highlights the ongoing market performance of the environmental sector, which has outperformed the broader market, with specific sub-sectors showing varied performance [3][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of August 15, 2025, the environmental sector index rose by 1.72%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.70% [3][6] - The top-performing sub-sectors include solid waste management, which saw a 12.44% increase, while water governance experienced a decline of 0.96% [9][12] Industry Dynamics - Various provinces have issued and planned special bonds totaling 153.98 billion yuan to repay overdue corporate debts, showcasing proactive measures to address financial obligations [24] - The Ministry of Natural Resources released a report indicating that the existing seawater desalination projects in China will increase to 158, with a total capacity of 2.856 million tons per day, marking a 33,300 tons per day increase from 2023 [25] Company Announcements - Zhongke Environmental reported a revenue of 848.20 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.48%, with a net profit of 196.26 million yuan, up 19.83% [37] - Chengfa Environment achieved a revenue of 3.216 billion yuan, with an environmental business revenue of 2.454 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.58% increase year-on-year [37] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a positive outlook on the environmental sector, particularly in energy conservation and resource recycling, which are expected to sustain high growth [42] - Recommended companies include Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co., Ltd. [42]

7 月首发主体数量继续上升，交易所新增规模仍高于协会 —— 2025 年 7 月城投债发行审批月度跟踪 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 8 月 15 日 | [李一爽 Table_FirstA 固定uthor 收益]首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com | | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 | | 执业编号：S1500524080002 | | 联系电话：+86 15850662789 | | 邮 箱：zhujinbao@cindasc.com | Xyue 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T债券able_ReportType] 专题 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S ...

Group 1 - The report outlines the characteristics of different stages of a bull market, including initial, mid, and late stages, with specific patterns in market performance and capital structure [4][7][10] - In the initial stage of a bull market, there is a brief rapid increase in the index (1-3 months) followed by a period of volatility (6 months to 1 year), with profits either declining or slightly improving, and a noticeable return of institutional and retail investors [7][10] - The mid-stage of a bull market is characterized by a sustained significant increase in the index (6 months to 1 year), strong profit realization, and substantial inflow of retail funds across most sectors [7][10] - In the late stage, the index continues to rise or increases slowly, with profit realization still occurring but at a reduced intensity, and sector differentiation reappears [7][10] Group 2 - The report identifies that the style of large and small caps tends to fluctuate significantly during the mid-stage of a bull market, with different styles dominating the first and second halves of this stage [14][18] - Historical patterns from 2005-2007, 2013-2015, and 2019-2021 show that the initial and late stages of bull markets often exhibit similar styles, while the mid-stage is more prone to style dispersion [14][18][25] Group 3 - The strongest styles and sectors during a bull market often do not perform as well in the mid-stage, with examples from previous bull markets indicating that the leading sectors in the initial and late stages may underperform in the mid-stage [29][30][32] - In the 2005-2007 bull market, the financial sector was the strongest overall, but in the mid-stage, the cyclical sector outperformed while financials lagged [29][30] - The 2013-2015 bull market saw growth as the strongest style overall, but financials led in the mid-stage, with growth underperforming [31][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.899 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 799 million yuan, up 15.66% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 429 million yuan, up 15.35% year-on-year [1] - The company is experiencing recovery in domestic business and continued high growth in overseas markets, with Q2 revenue from domestic and international markets at 2.305 billion yuan and 1.778 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 4.3% and 22.3% [3] Financial Performance Summary - The company maintained a gross margin of 26.19% in Q2, an increase of 2.27 percentage points year-on-year, driven by an increase in overseas business proportion and a decrease in molasses prices [3] - The company’s Q2 non-recurring net profit reached 405 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.39% [1][3] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 13.585 billion yuan in 2023 to 20.694 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.4% [4] Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.83 yuan, 2.12 yuan, and 2.46 yuan, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21X, 18X, and 15X [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 15% [13]. Core Views - The company is benefiting from the favorable conditions in the peptide industry chain, with significant growth in both its active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) and Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) businesses [2][3]. - The company has achieved impressive financial results in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 338 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 89 million yuan, up 308.29% [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 338 million yuan, a net profit of 89 million yuan, and a net cash flow from operating activities of 82 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 69.69%, 308.29%, and 213.22% respectively [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 153 million yuan and a net profit of 42 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 61.50% and 687.09% respectively [1]. Business Segments - The API business generated 189 million yuan in revenue in H1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 232.38%, driven by increased exports of Semaglutide and Tirzepatide [2]. - The CDMO business reported revenue of 42 million yuan in H1 2025, a growth of 72.93%, primarily due to the advancement of a clinical project for a client [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company has successfully launched a new production line for peptide APIs with an annual capacity of 395 kg and has made significant progress in its CDMO and API industrialization projects [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the completion of new production lines, alleviating previous capacity constraints and enhancing its growth potential in the peptide industry [5]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 751 million yuan, 990 million yuan, and 1.21 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 191 million yuan, 273 million yuan, and 349 million yuan [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the company, as a leading domestic medical imaging equipment manufacturer, has made significant breakthroughs in product high-endization, market globalization, and technological intelligence. With high product barriers, deepening global layout, and the formation of an AI ecosystem, the company's business is expected to maintain rapid growth and continuous improvement in profitability [6][10][12] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on R&D and has established a comprehensive product line covering MR, CT, XR, MI, and RT. As of the end of 2024, it has launched over 140 products, achieving multiple "first in the country/industry" breakthroughs [13][14] Financial Performance - The company's revenue has grown from 2.035 billion yuan in 2018 to 10.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31%. The net profit for 2024 is projected to be 1.262 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 36.1% due to short-term policy impacts [6][20][23] Product Matrix - The company has a complete product line and is gradually achieving advantages in mid-to-high-end products, with a focus on high-end product development to break the import monopoly. The company is the only one in China with a 320-slice/640-layer CT product and has a leading market share in PET/CT [33][34] Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its domestic and international markets. In 2024, its domestic revenue reached 7.664 billion yuan, and it ranked first in the new market share for imaging products in China. The company has also established a presence in over 70% of U.S. states and has expanded into key European markets [11][12][20] AI Integration - The company is integrating AI technology into its medical imaging devices throughout their lifecycle, creating a comprehensive digital platform. The launch of the intelligent CT, uCT Orion, has already received over 100 orders by early 2025, showcasing the successful application of AI in enhancing product performance [12][10][6] Revenue Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 12.062 billion yuan, 14.156 billion yuan, and 16.657 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.748 billion yuan, 2.197 billion yuan, and 2.749 billion yuan [6][7][20]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic background during 2013-2015 showed a significant decline in economic growth and price indicators, leading to a liquidity-driven bull market despite unresolved issues [3][8][19] - The decline in PPI had a greater impact on policy and liquidity than on profitability, indicating a decoupling of stock market performance from earnings during the latter part of the bull market [3][19][23] - The influx of resident funds into the stock market was primarily through bank-securities transfers and margin financing, with a notable increase in public fund issuance in the first half of 2015 [3][41][51] Group 2 - The market performance from 2013 to 2015 was characterized by weak earnings but abundant funds, resulting in a significant bull market [3][36][41] - The stock market experienced a structural bull market in 2013, followed by a comprehensive bull market in 2014 despite worsening economic conditions [3][36][37] - The improvement in the supply-demand structure of the stock market was a fundamental driver of the bull market, aided by a decrease in IPOs and an increase in margin financing [3][55] Group 3 - The market style shifted from TMT to financial cycles and back to TMT, with small-cap stocks performing strongly in the early and late stages of the bull market [3][27][36] - The strongest performing sectors during the bull market included TMT, new consumption, and value stocks driven by themes like the Free Trade Zone and Belt and Road Initiative [3][27][36] Group 4 - The financial sector saw significant gains in the second half of 2014, attributed to a turning point in real estate policy and an influx of resident funds into undervalued cyclical stocks [3][36][39] - The opening of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and subsequent interest rate cuts contributed to the rapid rise of financial stocks in late 2014 [3][39][41] Group 5 - The growth of growth stocks during 2013-2015 was driven by the booming mobile internet sector, with public funds increasing their positions in sectors like electronics and media [3][5][21] - The rapid increase in new A-share accounts in 2014-2015 was facilitated by the development of internet finance and the relaxation of account opening restrictions [3][51][53]