Group 1 - The report highlights that the convertible bond market is currently perceived as "expensive," with many participants focusing on short-term relative returns rather than long-term value [5][36][35] - The strategy emphasizes "odds thinking" over "winning rate thinking," suggesting that investors are more concerned with short-term profit potential in the current market environment [18][29] - The report introduces the "implied 3-month yield" indicator, which measures the speed of potential yield realization, indicating that the market lacks clear positioning signals at present [19][29] Group 2 - The report notes that the convertible bond index reached a new high in July, driven by strong performance in cyclical sectors and the photovoltaic industry, despite some underperformance in bank convertible bonds [5][6][29] - The strategy for August includes focusing on high-odds targets, maintaining a balanced industry distribution, and selecting bonds with high yield-to-maturity (YTM) [37][38][39] - Specific convertible bonds recommended for attention include Green Energy Convertible Bond, Pudong Development Bank Convertible Bond, and others, reflecting a focus on high-odds opportunities [38][39][40]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The EIA and IEA have raised their global oil supply forecasts for 2025, with predictions of 10510.89 million barrels per day and 10460.15 million barrels per day respectively, reflecting an increase from 2024 [2][33] - Global oil demand is projected to increase in 2025, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC forecasting demand at 10368.24 million barrels per day, 10353.85 million barrels per day, and 10510.00 million barrels per day respectively [2][33] - Oil prices have shown a decline in the first half of 2025, with Brent crude down by 9.77% and WTI down by 10.78% since the beginning of the year [3][9] Summary by Sections Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global oil supply for 2025 at 10510.89, 10460.15, and 10396.00 million barrels per day respectively, with year-on-year increases of +209.60, +180.46, and +161.06 million barrels per day [2][33] - For Q3 2025, the predicted supply increases are +251.25, +226.71, and +171.59 million barrels per day [33] Oil Demand - The demand forecasts for 2025 are 10368.24 million barrels per day (IEA), 10353.85 million barrels per day (EIA), and 10510.00 million barrels per day (OPEC), with increases from 2024 of +70.42, +79.72, and +126.00 million barrels per day respectively [2][33] Oil Prices - As of July 23, 2025, Brent crude is priced at 68.51 USD/barrel, WTI at 65.25 USD/barrel, with respective declines of -2.85% and -4.76% over the past month [3][9] Oil Inventory - Predictions for global oil inventory changes in 2025 are +142.65 million barrels per day (IEA), +106.29 million barrels per day (EIA), and -114.00 million barrels per day (OPEC), with an average change of +44.98 million barrels per day [28][2] Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is facing pressure on performance due to intense competition in the recruitment training industry, leading to a decline in training business sales and revenue [3] - The launch of the AI-based question practice system class aims to establish a leading position in educational AI applications, with approximately 50,000 sales and revenue of about 20 million RMB by the end of June [3] - The AI question practice system class has shown initial success in improving conversion rates, attracting many previously non-paying users, and the company plans to expand this offering to more subjects in the future [3] - Despite the competitive challenges, the company is expected to achieve non-linear growth through AI applications, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 263 million, 295 million, and 358 million RMB respectively [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,034 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.5%, but is expected to decline to 2,625 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a decrease of 5.9% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 189 million RMB in 2023 to 263 million RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.7% [4] - The company's gross margin is expected to be around 50% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 17.8% [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 37 in 2023 to 28 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the excess reserve ratio rose to 1.3%, still at a low level for the end - of - quarter month and lower than expected. The central bank maintained the normalization of capital prices by supporting bank lending. In July, the central bank aimed to keep liquidity relatively loose within the existing framework, with the excess reserve ratio expected to be around 1.2%. In August, the excess reserve ratio is projected to be about 1.1%, remaining at a neutral level in recent years. The probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in August is low, but the central bank may still maintain relatively loose liquidity [2][3]. - The fluctuation of the capital market in July was related to the improvement of the equity market sentiment, especially the freezing of funds due to new stock listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The capital market in August may continue the tone of July, and attention should be paid to whether DR001 can break through the lower limit of 1.3% at the beginning of the month [2][33][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Quarter - end Central Bank Claims Did Not Rise Unexpectedly, and the Increase in the Excess Reserve Ratio in June Was Weaker than Seasonal - In June, the excess reserve ratio rose by about 0.3pct to 1.3%, lower than the expected 1.5%, due to the central bank's claims on other depository corporations not rising additionally as expected to offset the previous decline. After the central bank announced the liquidity injection of various tools in May, the difference between the central bank's claims on other depository corporations and high - frequency data decreased, and its follow - up normalization needs attention [6]. - In June, the fiscal deposit decreased by 5722 billion yuan, less than the expected 7400 billion yuan. The expenditure progress of special refinancing bonds was slow, and the repurchase of treasury cash time deposits might have led to an additional increase in government deposits. Other factors such as currency issuance, central bank legal deposit reserves, and foreign exchange funds were close to expectations [8]. - Despite the relatively low excess reserve ratio, the net lending scale of banks continued to rise in June, and the central DR001 rate dropped below 1.4%, indicating that the central bank was normalizing capital prices by supporting bank lending [15]. 3.2. In July, the Central DR001 Rate Was Stable but with Increased Fluctuations, and the Central Bank Maintained Relative Looseness within the Existing Framework - In July, although the supply pressure of government bonds remained high, the general fiscal revenue and expenditure might show an anti - seasonal deficit, and the expenditure of replacement bonds was expected to bring additional government deposit injections. It was estimated that government deposits would increase by about 450 billion yuan, and the consumption of excess reserves would weaken marginally. Credit lending decline might lead to a decrease in bank reserve payments by about 90 billion yuan. Currency issuance might increase by about 30 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds might continue to withdraw about 50 billion yuan. In the open market, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations might rise by about 260 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was expected to be about 1.2% [15]. - In July, DR001 once exceeded 1.35%, and 1.3% seemed to become the new lower limit. The average DR001 for the whole month did not decline significantly but fluctuated more. The decline in non - bank capital demand led to a decline in DR007 despite the decrease in bank net lending. This might indicate that the central bank had achieved policy normalization and hoped to maintain relatively loose liquidity within the existing framework, resulting in stable but more volatile capital interest rates [27]. - The increased fluctuation of the capital market in late July might be related to the improvement of the equity market sentiment, especially the freezing of funds due to new stock listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The freezing and unfreezing of funds on the Beijing Stock Exchange might only impact the inter - bank liquidity under special circumstances [33]. - The cross - month progress of institutions in July was generally slow, but the abundant capital supply ensured the looseness of the capital market at the end of the month [37]. 3.3. In August, Relative Looseness May Still Be Maintained within the Existing Framework, and Attention Should Be Paid to Whether the Central Bank Continues to Relax Controls and Amplify Fluctuations - In August, although the general fiscal deficit might be higher than the same period in previous years, and the expenditure of replacement bonds might still cause additional leakage of government deposits, the net supply of government bonds was also at a high level. It was estimated that government deposits would decrease by about 50 billion yuan. Reserve payments might increase seasonally, currency issuance might increase by about 50 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds might continue to withdraw about 50 billion yuan. In the open market, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations might decline by about 430 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was expected to be about 1.1% [3][43]. - Since July, the central bank has emphasized the implementation of existing policies. The threshold for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has increased, and it is not the baseline expectation for August. However, the central bank's concern about bond investment risks has decreased, and it may still tend to maintain relatively loose liquidity within the existing framework in August [3][56]. - In August, the capital market may continue the tone of July. Attention should be paid to whether DR001 can break through the lower limit of 1.3% at the beginning of the month. If so, the central bank may further relax controls on bank lending, increasing the fluctuation of the capital market. Although the exogenous disturbances such as the tax period in August may decrease, the decline in the central DR001 and DR007 rates may be limited [61].

[行业专题研究（普通） Table_ReportType] | [Table_StockAndRank] 电子 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 莫文宇 电子行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮 箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 北美科技龙头二季报：业绩纷纷超预 期，CapEx 力度不减 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 4 日 本期内容提要: 北美 CSP 二季报： 业绩纷纷超预期，CapEx 力度不减 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 8 月 4 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_S [➢Table_Summary 谷歌：ummar云业务需求强劲，上调全年 y] ] CapEx ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market showed a situation of "all negative factors priced in" this week. After the high - level oscillation in the first half of the week, influenced by factors such as the extension of Sino - US tariff exemptions, lack of unexpected policies in the Politburo meeting in July, significant corrections in the equity market and commodity prices, and poor July manufacturing PMI data, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield returned to around 1.7%. The news of resuming the collection of VAT on the interest income of some bonds on Friday afternoon pushed the 10 - year Treasury bond yield below 1.7% [2][6]. - The tax system for bond investment in China varies according to different bond types, investors, and income sources. The new tax policy exempts the old bonds of Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds from VAT on interest income, while new bonds require banks and other institutional investors to pay 6.34% VAT and asset management products to pay 3.26% VAT [2][6]. - After the tax rate adjustment, institutions may prefer to hold old bonds. The new bond issuance may need to provide sufficient interest compensation. The actual yield of old bonds may be between 1.65% - 1.7%, and the new - old bond spread may be between 5 - 10BP [2][13]. - The central bank may support the policy adjustment to increase the nominal level of domestic bond interest rates and reduce the investment and trading willingness of financial institutions. The finance department may aim to expand the tax source. The policy may increase the annual VAT revenue by up to 140 billion, and the annual fiscal interest payment may increase by about 50 billion [2][3]. - In the short term, the bond market may maintain a volatile pattern. After the new tax policy, there may be a short - term trading opportunity for old bonds, but the market may still face disturbances, and the volatile pattern is difficult to break [2][23]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 China's Bond Investment Tax System Varies by Bond Type, Investor, and Income Source - **VAT**: Interest income from Treasury bonds, local government bonds, financial bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit is exempt from VAT. For other bond types, the actual VAT rate for general legal entities is 6.34%, and for asset management products, it is 3.26%. Capital gains from most bonds are subject to VAT, but public funds are exempt. The actual VAT rate takes into account price - exclusive factors and additional taxes [2][6][7]. - **Income Tax**: Financial institutions' interest income from investing in Treasury bonds and local government bonds is exempt from income tax. Interest income from railway bonds is taxed at a reduced rate of 12.5%. Other bond interest income and capital gains are taxed at 25%. Contractual asset management products are not income tax payers, and the tax is borne by product holders. Personal investment in asset management products is currently tax - free, while enterprises and financial institutions are taxable. Public fund dividends are exempt from income tax [2][8]. - **Impact on Yield Difference**: Tax system differences are an important reason for the yield differences among different bond types in China. For example, the implied tax rate between Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds has an upper limit of 25% [9]. 3.2 Under the New Tax Policy, the Market's Rush for Old Bonds is Mainly Due to Different Tax Rates Among Institutions - **New Tax Policy**: Starting from August 8, 2025, new - issued Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds' interest income will be subject to VAT, while old bonds' interest income remains tax - free [11]. - **Pricing of New and Old Bonds**: Assuming the fair - value yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is 1.7%, new bonds need to provide sufficient interest compensation. For asset management products, the new bond issuance rate only needs to reach 1.755% to be equivalent to old bonds, while for self - operated accounts, it needs to reach 1.808%. The actual new - old bond spread may be between 5 - 10BP [12][13]. - **Actual Situation**: Banks can invest in asset management products to avoid tax impacts, which may narrow the new - old bond spread. For short - duration bonds, the new bond yield may rise more. The demand for non - tax - adjusted bonds such as inter - bank certificates of deposit and credit bonds may increase, but the positive impact is limited [14]. 3.3 The New Tax Policy Can Increase the Nominal Interest Rate of New Bonds, but Commercial Banks May Bear Higher Tax Costs - **Policy Motivation**: The central bank may support the policy to increase the nominal level of domestic bond interest rates, and the finance department aims to expand the tax source [17]. - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: In the first year of the policy implementation, the additional VAT revenue may be less than 36 billion. Eventually, the annual fiscal VAT revenue increase may be within 140 billion, and the annual fiscal interest payment may increase by about 50 billion. The difference reflects the tax cost borne by banks and other financial institutions [3][19][21]. - **Future Policy Expectation**: There may be further adjustments to the tax system of asset management products, especially the tax - exemption policy for public fund dividends [22]. 3.4 After Repricing the Existing Bonds, the Bond Market May Still Show a Volatile Pattern - **Short - Term Market Trend**: The bond market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to the lack of incremental policies in the Politburo meeting in July, limited inflation - driving ability of production - restriction policies, and the expected maintenance of a loose monetary policy [23]. - **Impact of New Tax Policy**: After the new tax policy, there may be a short - term trading opportunity for old bonds as their yields may decline by 0 - 5BP. However, the market may still face disturbances such as rising bank financing costs and potential tax policy adjustments for public funds, and the volatile pattern is difficult to break [24]. - **Long - Term Outlook**: A further decline in interest rates may require weaker fundamental data to force a policy shift. There is a possibility that the economic growth rate may decline in the second half of the year, and if combined with central bank bond - buying or interest rate cuts, interest rates may reach new lows, which may occur in the second half of the third quarter [24].

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that adjustments in the US stock market may influence the A-share market, particularly when A-shares are at bull market peaks [2][8] - Historical data since 2000 shows that during four significant adjustments in the US market (2000-2002, 2008, Q1 2020, 2022), A-shares transitioned from bull to bear markets, except for Q1 2020 when A-shares were less affected [3][9] - The report suggests that the current A-share market is in the early to mid-stage of a bull market, with valuations in a reasonable range, which may mitigate the impact of US market fluctuations [3][9] Group 2 - The correlation between Japanese and US stock markets has been high, but there have been two significant periods of divergence lasting about ten years, during which the US market experienced substantial declines while the Japanese market rose [3][15] - The report posits that due to significant valuation differences between A-shares and US stocks, there is a considerable probability that the two markets may gradually decouple [17][18] - The report highlights that since 2021, foreign ownership of A-shares has been declining, and there has been no significant return of foreign capital to A-shares since the bull market began in September 2024, suggesting limited impact from US market volatility [18][20] Group 3 - The report anticipates a potential main upward trend in the A-share market driven by policy and capital, with expectations of increased resident capital inflow as the market stabilizes [21][23] - It suggests a shift in investment strategy from a "barbell" approach to a more flexible strategy, focusing on sectors with elastic performance such as non-bank financials and AI applications [25][26] - The report recommends increasing allocations in sectors like non-bank financials, media, and metals, while also considering cyclical stocks that may show elastic performance in the coming months [26][27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that there are opportunities for recovery in the light industry manufacturing sector amidst existing divergences and cyclical challenges [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the paper price recovery as the supply side experiences disturbances, particularly in the pulp market, with expectations for price increases in Q3 and Q4 [2][3] - The new tobacco segment shows resilience with British American Tobacco reporting stable performance in new products, indicating potential growth in the mid-single digits for new tobacco products [3] - The report notes the impact of updated tariffs on exports, suggesting a potential recovery in orders as clarity on tariff policies emerges in August [4] - The packaging sector is expected to benefit from competitive advantages and improved supply chain management, with companies like Zhongxin and Yongxin poised for growth [6] - The smart glasses market is anticipated to gain momentum as major tech companies emphasize the importance of AI integration in wearable technology [6] - The cross-border e-commerce landscape is evolving with changes in U.S. tax policies, which may clarify the global strategies of domestic sellers [7] - The report discusses the structural opportunities in the maternal and infant industry due to new government subsidies, which are expected to stimulate demand in lower-tier markets [9][10] - The home appliance sector is likely to stabilize as government funding for consumption upgrades is implemented [16] - The tools sector is projected to see a recovery in demand as the U.S. may initiate interest rate cuts, which could boost housing transactions [17] Summary by Sections Pulp and Paper - Global pulp supply disturbances are noted, with companies like Altri and UPM adjusting production strategies, leading to expectations of price recovery in Q3 and Q4 [2][3] New Tobacco - British American Tobacco's H1 results show a slight decline in overall revenue but stable performance in new tobacco products, indicating potential for growth [3] Exports - Recent updates on tariffs may lead to a recovery in orders, with a focus on companies that can adapt to the changing landscape [4] Packaging - Companies in the packaging sector are expected to leverage cost advantages and improve supply chain efficiencies for growth [6] Smart Glasses - The smart glasses market is set to expand as major tech firms invest in AI capabilities [6] Cross-Border E-commerce - Changes in U.S. tax policies are expected to clarify the operational landscape for cross-border e-commerce sellers [7] Maternal and Infant Industry - New government subsidies are anticipated to stimulate demand in the maternal and infant sector, particularly in lower-tier markets [9][10] Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is expected to stabilize with government support for consumption upgrades [16] Tools - The tools sector may see demand recovery as the U.S. considers interest rate cuts, potentially boosting housing market activity [17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 11.742 billion yuan (up 76.1% year-on-year) and net profit at 1.242 billion yuan (up 108.5% year-on-year) [1] - The electric two-wheeler segment showed strong growth, with revenue of 3.960 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing an 80.6% year-on-year increase, and sales volume reaching 1.389 million units (up 77.3% year-on-year) [2] - The company is expanding its product offerings and enhancing its technological capabilities, including the launch of the Lingbo OS for short-distance transportation, which integrates cloud, edge, and terminal capabilities [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company's gross margin was 30.4%, with a notable reduction in expense ratios across various categories, contributing to improved profitability [4] - The company expects net profits to grow significantly over the next three years, with projections of 2.059 billion yuan in 2025, 2.818 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.809 billion yuan in 2027 [6] - The company achieved a cash flow from operating activities of 3.65 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [4] Product and Market Expansion - The company has successfully penetrated overseas markets with its latest flagship lawn mowing robot, which received positive reviews at CES 2025 and is now available on major e-commerce platforms [3] - The company has over 8,700 dedicated electric two-wheeler stores in China, indicating a robust distribution network [2] - The introduction of new product lines targeting specific consumer needs, such as the Q series for female riders and the M series focusing on sports performance, demonstrates the company's commitment to innovation [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain strong overall due to ongoing production cuts and favorable demand conditions, despite recent price declines and inventory increases [3][4] - The report highlights that while the steel industry faces supply-demand imbalances, the implementation of "stability growth" policies is likely to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure sectors [3][4] - The report suggests that the industry is moving towards a more concentrated supply structure, which may stabilize the overall supply-demand situation [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 2.26% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific declines in various sub-sectors: special steel down 1.28%, long products down 4.00%, and flat products down 1.80% [10][12] - Iron ore and steel raw materials also saw declines, with iron ore down 5.96% and steel consumables down 3.74% [12] Supply Data - As of August 1, the average daily pig iron production was 2.4071 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.52 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 1.10 tons [25] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.2%, down 0.57 percentage points week-on-week, while electric furnace utilization increased by 1.56 percentage points to 57.1% [25] Demand Data - Total consumption of the five major steel products was 8.52 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 161,000 tons, reflecting a 1.85% decline [35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94,000 tons, down 2.07 tons week-on-week, marking an 18.00% decrease [35] Inventory Data - Social inventory of the five major steel products increased to 9.424 million tons, up 152,900 tons week-on-week, but down 25.37% year-on-year [43] - Factory inventory remained stable at 4.095 million tons, with a slight week-on-week increase of 1,000 tons [43] Price Trends - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,563.9 yuan/ton, down 42.25 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the special steel index increased slightly to 6,629.6 yuan/ton [49] - The profit for rebar production was 200 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 82.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [57] Raw Material Prices - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 770 yuan/ton, down 13.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [70] - The price for first-grade metallurgical coke was 1,660 yuan/ton, up 55.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [70] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-margin special steel producers [3][4]