1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The fuel oil futures prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed an upward trend at night, with the main contract of high-sulfur fuel oil rising 1.82% to 2,518 yuan/ton and the main contract of low-sulfur fuel oil rising 0.83% to 3,037 yuan/ton [1] - The crude oil price has been oscillating and rebounding recently. The escalation of the situation in Venezuela has increased the sentiment premium, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed, and the resistance above still exists [1] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has stabilized and rebounded recently. The seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers by the US may lead to an increase in fuel oil procurement demand from domestic refineries, but the supply is still abundant, and the significant increase in registered warehouse receipts has suppressed the market [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the supply in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase. The short-term market pressure may be limited due to the boost in terminal demand at the end of the year and the diversion of components by gasoline and diesel, but the valuation will continue to be suppressed due to abundant supply sources, and there is no shortage expectation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of high-sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.82% at 2,518 yuan/ton at night, and the main contract of low-sulfur fuel oil closed up 0.83% at 3,037 yuan/ton [1] - The crude oil price has been oscillating and rebounding recently, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed, and the resistance above still exists [1] - For high-sulfur fuel oil, the crack spread has stabilized and rebounded recently. The seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers by the US may lead to an increase in fuel oil procurement demand from domestic refineries, but the supply is still abundant, and the significant increase in registered warehouse receipts has suppressed the market [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the supply in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase. The short-term market pressure may be limited due to the boost in terminal demand at the end of the year and the diversion of components by gasoline and diesel, but the valuation will continue to be suppressed due to abundant supply sources, and there is no shortage expectation [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas gasoline crack spreads are weak, reducing support from overseas gasoline blending for pure benzene. Although the peak of domestic pure benzene arrivals has passed, there is still some arrival pressure, with port inventories accumulating further at high levels this week and downstream pick - up remaining weak. Downstream operating rates are starting to recover from the bottom, with the styrene operating rate hitting the bottom and rebounding. Non - styrene downstream products such as phenol, aniline, and adipic acid have also seen an increase in operating rates, while the CPL operating rate has shown weak rebound [1][2]. - Styrene port inventories increased slightly during the week. The styrene operating rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and it is the end of the previous de - stocking cycle due to the off - season of downstream EPS. However, the temporary short - stop of Bohua affected the expected increase in the EB operating rate. Downstream operating rates rebounded slightly. EPS operating rate in the off - season rebounded slightly, PS operating rate rebounded after inventory reduction, and ABS operating rate continued to be at a low level due to continuous inventory pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures include the relationship between pure benzene's main basis and main futures contract price, pure benzene's main contract basis, pure benzene's spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene's continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread, as well as similar data for styrene [7][14][18]. II. Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover the naphtha processing fee, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated plant production profit, and various spreads and import profits of pure benzene and styrene in different regions [22][24][38]. III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show the pure benzene inventory at the East China port, pure benzene operating rate, styrene inventory at the East China port, styrene operating rate, styrene commercial inventory in East China, and styrene factory inventory [39][42][44]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS in the styrene downstream [52][54][57]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Figures display the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other pure benzene downstream products, as well as the production profits of related derivatives such as PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [64][68][75]. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy [3]. - Basis and Inter - Period: Do reverse arbitrage on BZ2603 - BZ2605 when the price is high [3]. - Cross - Variety: Short BZ2603 and long PX2605 [3].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - For the spread between MA2605 and MA2609, go long when the spread is low [4] - For the spread between LL2605 and 3*MA2605, go short when the spread is high [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory at Jiangsu ports has rapidly increased. On the one hand, the previously delayed port discharges have been gradually realized. On the other hand, the demand for inland提货 from ports has decreased after the inland market weakened. After the winter maintenance of Iranian plants was concentratedly realized, a 1.65 million - ton/year Iranian plant restarted at the beginning of the week, and the plant situation is fluctuating. Attention should be paid to the duration of the winter maintenance of Iranian plants. Although the operating rate in Iran is at a low level, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance still needs to be further realized. In terms of MTO, Ningbo Fude's MTO is under maintenance, and in January, further possible maintenance of Zhejiang's MTO plants should be monitored [2] - The coal - based methanol production has high operating pressure, and the southwest gas - based methanol plants are undergoing seasonal winter maintenance. Among traditional downstream industries, the acetic acid operating rate has rebounded from the bottom, the MTBE operating rate is still acceptable, and the formaldehyde operating rate has slightly declined [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis and Inter - period Structure - The report includes figures on methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) against the main futures contract, and the price spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - methanol 05, methanol 05 - methanol 09, etc.) [6][7][11][13] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price spreads (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [6][24][28] 3.3 Methanol Operating Rate and Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) are presented in figures [6][31][37] 3.4 Regional Price Spreads - Figures show price spreads between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [6][34][35] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The report provides figures on the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][43][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors is neutral [3][6] 2. Core Views - For the粕类 market, the current domestic supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with a slight increase in soybean inventory and high bean meal inventory. The 05 contract price moves weakly in line with the US soybean price due to strong South American soybean production expectations. However, the relatively high import cost of US soybeans provides some support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and the growth of new - season South American soybeans [2] - In the corn market, farmers are still reluctant to sell, resulting in a slow grain - selling pace. Traders are cautious in purchasing, while deep - processing enterprises'开机 is stable with a slight increase in inventory and improved purchasing willingness. Feed enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases and mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude. All - link inventories are gradually rising but still below historical levels. Future focus should be on alternative grain auctions, and the corn spot price is expected to adjust [4][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 粕类 Market 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2760 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+1.17%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2352 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.34%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 320, down 32 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3030 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 270, down 12; in Guangdong, it was 3040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 280, down 12. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2590 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM05 + 238, up 12 [1] - **Market Information**: As of December 23, the soybean planting progress in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 75.5%, 8 percentage points higher than a week ago, with 95.2% of sown soybeans rated normal to good and 96% of soybean farmland having sufficient/optimal moisture. The estimated soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 1.77 billion tons, higher than the previous forecast of 1.76 billion tons [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The domestic supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with soybean and bean meal inventories rising slightly. The 05 contract price moves weakly with the US soybean price due to South American production expectations, but the high US soybean import cost provides support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and South American soybean growth [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Neutral [3] 3.2 Corn Market 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2189 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2601 contract was 2484 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.40%) [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C01 + 111, up 12 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS01 + 136, up 10 [3] - **Market Information**: From December 1 - 19, Brazil's corn exports were 4.426 million tons, compared with 4.266 million tons in December 2024. The daily average export volume was 295,039 tons, a 45.2% year - on - year increase. The export value was 970 million US dollars, compared with 910 million US dollars in December 2024. The average export price was 218.8 US dollars/ton, a 2.2% increase from the same period last year [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the supply side, farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a slow grain - selling pace. On the demand side, traders' inventory rises slowly and they are cautious in purchasing. Deep - processing enterprises'开机 is stable, with a slight increase in inventory and improved purchasing willingness. Feed enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases and mostly wait and see. All - link inventories are rising but below historical levels. Future focus should be on alternative grain auctions, and the corn spot price is expected to adjust [4][5] 3.2.3 Strategy - Neutral [6]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillation [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [4] Group 2: Core Views - Glass market sentiment is weak, with production and sales slightly declining and prices remaining volatile; supply contraction is insufficient, demand lacks improvement, and prices are under pressure [1] - Soda ash market sentiment is also weak, with prices in a narrow - range oscillation; production is decreasing but still high, demand is stable, and inventory is being reduced, but price rebound is restricted [1] - For silicomanganese, there is a mix of long and short sentiments, with prices oscillating; production and operating rates are low, but inventory is at a high level, and cost support is weakening [3] - For ferrosilicon, prices are in a narrow - range oscillation; production has significantly decreased, inventory pressure has eased, and fundamental contradictions have been mitigated [3] Group 3: Summary by Product Categories Glass - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and the center of spot market transactions moved down. In late December, some production lines were cold - repaired, and supply contracted. Daily melting of float glass decreased this week, and manufacturer inventory increased month - on - month [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production decreased slightly, supply contraction was insufficient, rigid demand lacked improvement, and the supply - demand contradiction was not alleviated. With the Spring Festival approaching, rigid demand is expected to further decline, and high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to cold - repair situations and the impact of macro - policies on speculative demand [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillation [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices oscillated in a narrow range, and downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment, mainly making rigid - demand purchases. This week, production decreased month - on - month, and inventory was reduced month - on - month [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production continued to decline but remained at a high level in the same period. Downstream demand was stable, and high - level inventory was being reduced, optimizing the supply - demand contradiction to some extent. However, the expected increase in float glass cold - repair plans and the launch of new soda ash production capacity restrict the price rebound. Attention should be paid to the impact of downstream demand on prices [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillation [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: After the release of the five - major steel product consumption data, there was a mix of long and short sentiments in the futures market, with prices oscillating. Spot prices were consolidating at high levels, with the northern market price ranging from 5520 - 5570 yuan/ton and the southern market price from 5620 - 5670 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Enterprises are suffering continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the production reduction is insufficient, resulting in record - high inventory. Port manganese ore inventory continued to rise, and the total manganese element inventory slightly increased, weakening cost support. Attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support and production changes [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillation [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and with the upcoming steel procurement, spot prices were stable. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade ferrosilicon price was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Last week, production significantly declined as enterprises actively adjusted their production rhythms to respond to the decline in demand. Inventory pressure was relieved, and fundamental contradictions were mitigated. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction, cost - side changes, and regional policies [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillation [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel industry shows a slight decline in production and sales, with prices remaining volatile, and there are seasonal decline expectations for building materials demand. The iron ore industry has a slight increase in molten iron production and continuous inventory accumulation, and the iron ore price may face downward pressure. The coking coal and coke industry has supply pressure and prices fluctuate slightly. The thermal coal industry has a supply contraction at the end of the year and continuous price drops at ports [1][3][5][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures maintained volatile trading. This week, the output of the five major steel products decreased slightly, demand declined month - on - month, and inventory continued to decline. Among them, rebar production increased, consumption decreased, and inventory decreased; hot - rolled coil production and sales increased, and inventory declined at an accelerated pace. Currently, the supply - demand fundamentals of building materials continue to improve, off - season consumption maintains resilience, production increases slightly, and inventory continues to decline. The demand for building materials still has a seasonal decline expectation. The production and sales of plates improve, demand maintains resilience, and high inventory continuously suppresses plate price performance, with the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continuing to weaken [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' procurement was mainly based on rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports nationwide was 1.341 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.11%; the cumulative transaction volume of forward - delivery iron ore was 0.0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100.00%. The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills this week was 2.2658 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 million tons. The total inventory of iron ore at 45 ports in this period was 158.59 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated. For coke, the spot market price remained stable, and downstream procurement willingness was insufficient; for coking coal, the prices in the main production areas showed mixed trends, and the overall market was still in a wait - and - see state. For imported Mongolian coal, the sentiment at the port improved slightly, and some Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was traded at about 960 - 1000 yuan/ton [5] - **Strategy**: For coking coal and coke, unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, the coal prices in the main production areas fluctuated. Recently, some coal mines stopped production or reduced production after completing their annual tasks, and the overall supply contracted. At the ports, the thermal coal market remained weak, and prices continued to decline to a low - level range. In the import market, the imported coal market remained stable. The demand for imported medium - and high - calorie coal types was average, with prices remaining stable or weak, and the quotes for low - calorie coal generally increased slightly [8] - **Strategy**: Not provided in the content

研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 王海涛 余彩云 wanghaitao@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 邝志鹏 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 邢亚文 xingyawen@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03054449 投资咨询号：Z0016137 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|黑色专题 2025-12-26 焦煤期货修改交割指标规则解读 策略摘要 过去几年大商所多次调整焦煤交割质量标准，甚至设立焦煤期货品牌交割，虽然其目 的是希望交割品可以不断适应市场实际需求，但是结果往往事与愿违，尤其在价格大 幅下跌的行情下，低质仓单引发的贴水交割屡见不鲜。本次修改焦煤交割质量标准进 一步优化了扣罚标准，提升了交割品质，同时继续引导交割向产地靠拢。 核心观点 ■ 市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading data of various index options on December 24, 2025, including trading volume, PCR, and VIX, along with their环比 changes [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On December 24, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 880,800 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,015,900 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,176,500 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 88,300 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1,763,900 contracts; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 22,500 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 74,600 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 248,400 contracts [1] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.55, with a环比 change of +0.03; the position PCR was 1.01, with a环比 change of -0.01. Similar data for other options are also provided [2] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 13.63%, with a环比 change of +0.64%. Similar data for other options are also provided [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Focus on the expected difference in aggregate demand policies in 2026. The policy goal is to achieve "stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices", with price becoming an important consideration for monetary policy. Externally, the suspension of Sino - US tariff conflicts for one year has reduced short - term uncertainties. Internally, the increased emphasis on the "supply - side" may drive the upward repair of negative PPI in 2026. Macro - policies have shifted from "insufficient demand" to "strong supply and weak demand", with the addition of "cross - cycle adjustment". The goal of monetary policy has shifted from "prices at a reasonable level" to "a reasonable rebound", increasing the weight of price factors in the central bank's monetary policy. The policy emphasizes the "integrated effect of incremental and existing policies" to stabilize rather than lower the "comprehensive social financing cost". The deletion of certain statements may imply a marginal weakening of financial regulatory intensity and increased flexibility for financial institutions [2]. - In terms of structural policies, the pre - positioning of aggregate demand may increase policy support for investment in 2026 and expand from the "two important and two new" areas to a wider range. The shift from "small enterprises" to "small and medium - sized enterprises" may expand the scope of structural policy tools. The deletion of "stabilizing foreign trade" indicates a reduction in structural support for foreign trade. The deletion of real - estate - related statements suggests that the real - estate market may enter a stage of further risk release and convergence in 2026, with short - term pressure but medium - term stability [3]. - In terms of exchange - rate policies, as in the third quarter, the weakening US dollar has reduced pressure on the RMB [3]. - The macro - strategy has shifted to short - term defense and annual optimism. The fourth - quarter monetary policy has a greater demand for price rebounds, which may come from the "cross - cycle" on the supply side and the expected difference in investment on the demand side. The positive judgment of the 2026 macro - strategy is maintained, but the short - term is revised to neutral. In the equity market, the proportion of hedging should be appropriately increased, and in the interest - rate market, attention should be paid to short - term trading opportunities after the rapid rise of long - term rates [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro Events On December 18, the central bank's fourth - quarter regular meeting suggested giving play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, comprehensively using various tools, strengthening monetary - policy regulation, and grasping the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial - market operations [1]. 3.2 Comparison and Analysis of the "Monetary Policy Committee Regular Meeting" 3.2.1 First Paragraph: Monetary Policy - Fourth - quarter statement: The macro - regulation has been strengthened this year. Monetary policy has been moderately loose, continuously exerting force and increasing force in a timely manner, strengthening counter - cyclical adjustment, and comprehensively using various monetary - policy tools to serve the high - quality development of the real economy and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for the stable and positive economic development. The reform of the loan - market quotation rate has continuously released its effectiveness, the market - based adjustment mechanism of deposit rates has effectively played its role, the transmission efficiency of monetary policy has been enhanced, and the social financing cost is at a historically low level. The foreign - exchange market supply and demand are basically balanced, foreign - exchange reserves are sufficient, the RMB exchange rate fluctuates bidirectionally, and it remains basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. The financial market generally operates smoothly [11]. - Third - quarter statement: Similar to the fourth - quarter statement, but the economic description was "rebounding and improving", and the statement "the current - account surplus is stable" was included [12]. - Huatai analysis: In November, when the economic data was lower than expected, the economic description was adjusted from "rebounding and improving" to "stable and positive". After the trade surplus exceeded 1 trillion US dollars from January to November, the statement "the current - account surplus is stable" was deleted [13]. 3.2.2 Second Paragraph: Situation Analysis - Fourth - quarter statement: The current external environment has a greater impact. The world economic growth momentum is insufficient, trade barriers have increased, the economic performance of major economies has diverged, and there are uncertainties in inflation trends and monetary - policy adjustments. China's economy is generally stable and making progress, and high - quality development has achieved new results, but it still faces problems such as prominent contradictions between strong supply and weak demand. It is necessary to continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, increase the intensity of counter - cyclical and cross - cycle adjustment, better play the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary - policy tools, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of monetary and fiscal policies, and promote stable economic growth and a reasonable rebound in prices [27]. - Third - quarter statement: The current external environment is more complex and severe. The world economic growth momentum has weakened, trade barriers have increased, the economic performance of major economies has diverged, and there are uncertainties in inflation trends and monetary - policy adjustments. China's economy is making progress while maintaining stability, social confidence is continuously boosted, and high - quality development has achieved new results, but it still faces difficulties such as insufficient domestic demand and low - level price operation. It is necessary to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in detail, strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, better play the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary - policy tools, increase the coordination and cooperation of monetary and fiscal policies, and promote stable economic growth and prices at a reasonable level [28]. - Huatai analysis: In the fourth quarter, the description of the external and internal economic situations was adjusted. Externally, the uncertainty has decreased marginally. Internally, the description of the "supply - side" has increased, which may drive the upward repair of negative PPI in 2026. The monetary - policy goal has shifted from "prices at a reasonable level" to "a reasonable rebound", increasing the weight of price factors [29]. 3.2.3 Third Paragraph: Policy Requirements - Fourth - quarter statement: It is recommended to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary - policy regulation, and grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial - market operations. Keep liquidity abundant, make the growth of social financing scale and money supply match the expected goals of economic growth and general price level, and promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost. Strengthen the guidance of the central bank's policy interest rate, improve the market - based interest - rate formation and transmission mechanism, play the role of the market - interest - rate pricing self - regulatory mechanism, and strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest - rate policies. Observe and evaluate the bond - market operation from a macro - prudential perspective and pay attention to changes in long - term yields. Smooth the monetary - policy transmission mechanism and improve the efficiency of fund use. Enhance the resilience of the foreign - exchange market, stabilize market expectations, prevent exchange - rate overshooting risks, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [43]. - Third - quarter statement: It is recommended to strengthen monetary - policy regulation, improve forward - looking, targeted, and effective policies, grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial - market operations, implement various monetary - policy measures, and fully release policy effects. Keep liquidity abundant, guide financial institutions to increase monetary and credit investment, make the growth of social financing scale and money supply match the expected goals of economic growth and general price level. Strengthen the guidance of the central bank's policy interest rate, improve the market - based interest - rate formation and transmission mechanism, play the role of the market - interest - rate pricing self - regulatory mechanism, and strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest - rate policies. Promote the decline of the comprehensive social financing cost. Observe and evaluate the bond - market operation from a macro - prudential perspective and pay attention to changes in long - term yields. Smooth the monetary - policy transmission mechanism, improve the efficiency of fund use, and prevent fund idling. Enhance the resilience of the foreign - exchange market, stabilize market expectations, prevent exchange - rate overshooting risks, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level [44]. - Huatai analysis: The central bank's monetary policy has entered a "discretionary" stage. The "integrated effect of incremental and existing policies" is proposed, which is more specific. The "forward - looking, targeted, and effective" statements are deleted, and the "timing" of policy implementation is added. The "comprehensive social financing cost" is pre - positioned and changed from "decline" to "low - level operation", indicating limited space for price - based monetary policies such as interest - rate cuts. The deletion of certain statements implies a marginal weakening of the demand for total financial variables and financial regulatory intensity [45][46][47]. 3.2.4 Fourth Paragraph: Policy Reform - Fourth - quarter statement: Guide large - scale banks to play the main role in financial services for the real economy, promote small and medium - sized banks to focus on their main responsibilities and businesses, enhance the capital strength of banks, and jointly maintain the stable development of the financial market. Effectively implement various structural monetary - policy tools, do a solid job in the "five major articles" of finance, and strengthen financial support for key areas such as expanding domestic demand, scientific and technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises. Use the swap facilities of securities, funds, and insurance companies and the re - loan for stock repurchase and increase, explore a normalized institutional arrangement, and maintain the stability of the capital market. Continuously do a good job in financial services to support the development and growth of the private economy. Promote high - level two - way opening of finance and improve the ability to manage the economy and finance and prevent risks under open conditions [56]. - Third - quarter statement: Similar to the fourth - quarter statement, but with more content, including supporting "two important and two new" areas, stabilizing foreign trade, and promoting the real - estate market [57]. - Huatai analysis: In the fourth quarter, many statements were deleted. The support order for key areas was adjusted, with aggregate demand pre - positioned, the scope of support for small enterprises expanded to small and medium - sized enterprises, and the support for foreign trade reduced. The deletion of real - estate - related statements may indicate that the real - estate market will enter a stage of further risk release and convergence in 2026 [58][59]. 3.2.5 Fifth Paragraph: Policy Guidance - Fourth - quarter statement: Guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implement the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the Central Economic Work Conference. In accordance with the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, firmly grasp the primary task of high - quality development, solidly promote Chinese - style modernization, fully and accurately implement the new development concept, and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern. Place greater emphasis on strengthening the domestic large - cycle, coordinate the relationship between total supply and total demand, enhance the forward - looking, targeted, and coordinated nature of macro - policies, focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, improve the increment and revitalize the stock, and continuously consolidate and expand the momentum of stable and positive economic development [63]. - Third - quarter statement: Similar to the fourth - quarter statement, but the macro - policy was described as "coordination and cooperation, maintaining policy continuity and stability, and enhancing flexibility and predictability" [64]. - Huatai analysis: The macro - policy has shifted from "coordination and cooperation, maintaining policy continuity and stability, and enhancing flexibility and predictability" to "forward - looking, targeted, and coordinated". The addition of "optimizing supply" indicates that there is still room for improvement in the macro - supply side in 2026, and the overall policy tone is "stable" [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market is currently in a stalemate with weak supply and demand. Short - term prices are expected to remain in a volatile and wait - and - see state due to policy regulation, support from farmers' reluctance to sell, and weak demand [2] - The peanut market shows a situation where the trading atmosphere is dull with a slight difference in the mentality of traders. Attention should be paid to the changes in the procurement rhythm of downstream enterprises [3][4] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market - Yesterday, the closing price of the Douyi 2605 contract was 4106.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan/ton (+0.05%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 134, up 38 (+32.14%) from the previous day [1] Supply and Demand - Supply: Although the rotation storage auction has increased potential sources of goods, the low transaction volume reflects cautious market acceptance. Coupled with the widespread reluctance to sell in the producing areas, the overall supply is still tight [2] - Demand: High prices have suppressed procurement. Downstream processing enterprises mainly replenish inventory based on rigid demand, and their willingness to actively stock up is insufficient [2] Spot Price - In Heilongjiang, the spot prices of soybeans in different regions vary. For example, in Harbin, the loading price of the national standard first - class protein 39% medium - grain tower grain is 2.10 yuan/jin; in Baocheng, it is 2.08 yuan/jin [1] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market - Yesterday, the closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7968.00 yuan/ton, up 18.00 yuan/ton (+0.23%) from the previous day. The average spot price of peanuts was 8055.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK03 - 1068.00, up 82.00 (-7.13%) from the previous day [3] Supply and Demand - Supply: The rhythm of goods arrival at the grass - roots level varies among different producing areas, and the price difference structure between regions remains stable. Some holders choose to offer small discounts to promote sales [3] - Demand: Food processing enterprises maintain on - demand procurement, while oil processing enterprises strictly control the quality indicators of oilseeds. Some factories have an increase in the phenomenon of trucks waiting to unload and a high return rate [4] Spot Price - The average price of general - grade peanuts in the national market was 4.03 yuan/jin, showing a stable but slightly weak trend. The prices in different regions and for different varieties vary. For example, the good - quality Henan wheat - stubble Baisha general - grade peanuts are priced at 3.5 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and the 8 - sieve refined rice is 4.2 - 4.3 yuan/jin [3]