尿素日报 | 2025-12-25 尿素持续去库，关注新单成交 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-24，尿素主力收盘1735元/吨（+14）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1710 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1730元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1720元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤820元/吨（+0），山东基差： -5元/吨（-4）；河南基差：-25元/吨（+16）；江苏基差：-15元/吨（-4）；尿素生产利润151元/吨（+10），出口利润 834元/吨（+10）。 供应端：截至2025-12-24，企业产能利用率80.69%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为106.89 万吨（-11.08），港口样 本库存量为13.80 万吨（+1.50）。 需求端：截至2025-12-24，复合肥产能利用率39.37%（-1.25%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.55%（-3.31%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数6.35日（+0.11）。 本周环保限产逐渐恢复，尿素企业及下游工业开工均有小幅提升。近期尿素现货受下游开工小幅恢复及市场宏观 氛围影响，成交好转，主流生产企业待发增加，价格上涨新单成交放缓。供应端四季 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-25 下游补库谨慎，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2728元/吨，较前日变动-17元/吨，幅度-0.62%；菜粕2605合约2344元/吨，较前 日变动-5元/吨，幅度-0.21%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3080元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+352， 较前日变动+17；江苏地区豆粕现货3010元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M05+282，较前日变动+7；广东地 区豆粕现货价格3020元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M05+292，较前日变动+7。福建地区菜粕现货价格 2570元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差RM05+226，较前日变动+5。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部周二公布的出口销售报告显示，12月11日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净 增239.62万吨，较之前一周增加54%，较前四周均值增加69%。市场预估为净增180-290万吨。其中，对中国大陆出 口销售净增138.3万吨。阿根廷农牧渔业国秘处公布的数据显示，阿根廷11月大豆压榨量为349.3万吨，豆油产量为 58.7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current price is mainly dominated by supply - side interference news with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices in the market. With a large short - term increase, there is a need to be vigilant about the callback risk [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 24, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 124,720 yuan/ton, with a 5.89% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 949,006 lots, and the open interest was 647,366 lots (the previous day's open interest was 671,573 lots). The current basis is - 21,900 yuan/ton. There were 17,101 lithium carbonate warehouse receipts, a change of 450 lots from the previous day. Despite the Guangzhou Futures Exchange raising the trading and intraday closing transaction fees for the lithium carbonate futures LC2605 contract to 0.032% of the transaction amount, the futures still rose significantly, and the current price is at a two - year high [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 97,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, a change of 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 96,700 - 101,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 2,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,450 US dollars/ton, a change of 30 US dollars/ton. In November 2025, China's total lithium carbonate imports were about 22,055 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 15%, with an average import price of about 9,915 US dollars/ton, a 11% month - on - month increase from the October average price. The lithium spodumene imports reached 729,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 12%, equivalent to about 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia was the main source of the increase, with imports reaching 425,000 tons in that month, a significant month - on - month increase of 44% and accounting for 58% of the total imports. Imports from Zimbabwe were 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28%; imports from Nigeria were 92,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16%. Additionally, 73,000 tons of lithium spodumene ore from Mali arrived at ports [2] Inventory Situation - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 110,425 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,044 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 18,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,071 tons; the downstream inventory is 41,485 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,253 tons; other inventories are 50,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,280 tons. The downstream and smelter inventories are decreasing while other inventories are increasing. The overall inventory in December is expected to continue to decline, but the inventory depletion is slowing down, and attention should be paid to the release of relevant inventory data on Thursday [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and choose the right time to sell hedging at high prices. Cross - period: None. Cross - variety: None [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-25 铜价走高 持货商集中抛售 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-24，沪铜主力合约开于 94850元/吨，收于 96100元/吨，较前一交易日收盘2.31%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 95,910元/吨，收于 95,020 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.25%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM电解铜现货对当月2601合约贴水380至240元/吨，均价贴水310元/吨，较昨日下跌95元。1# 电解铜价格为94420-94690元/吨。早盘沪铜主力合约于94800-95230元/吨区间窄幅整理，尾盘回落至93800元附近。 铜价再创历史新高，一度突破95000元大关。受年末资金压力影响，持货商早市集中抛售，市场买盘乏力，主流平 水铜贴水已降至300元/吨以下，为今年5月下旬以来首次。高铜价已导致部分下游企业停产，预计今日贴水或将继 续扩大。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，地缘方面，乌克兰总统泽连斯基公布俄乌"和平计划"草案20点细节，包括乌克兰加入欧盟、向 乌克兰提供类似北约第五条集体防御条款的保障、乌克兰将尽快举行选举等。但关键的领土问题仍未 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-25 铝到货量增加价格跟涨乏力 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价22030元/吨，较上一交易日变化160元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-170元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21870元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-330元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21940元/吨，较上一交易日变化150元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-255元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-24日沪铝主力合约开于22290元/吨，收于22330元/吨，较上一交易日变化205元/吨，最 高价达22340元/吨，最低价达到22050元/吨。全天交易日成交294532手，全天交易日持仓296924手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-24，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存60.0万吨，较上一期变化2.2万吨，仓单库存76436 吨，较上一交易日变化347吨，LME铝库存521050吨，较上一交易日变化1450吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-24SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2715元/吨，山东价格录得2640元/吨，河南价格录得 2725元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at highs [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - The market risk sentiment has increased, leading to a potential rise in demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern, with the Au2602 contract oscillating between 980 yuan/gram and 1080 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to remain volatile but at a historically high level, with a significant narrowing of the gold-silver ratio. There is a risk of a pullback due to profit-taking, and the Ag2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 16800 yuan/kg and 17800 yuan/kg [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical situation: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced 20 details of the Russia-Ukraine "peace plan" draft, but the key territorial issue remains unresolved [1] - Economic data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week fell to 214,000, and the market still expects two interest rate cuts by the end of 2026 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On December 24, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1015.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1014.68 yuan/gram, a change of 0.04% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1010.30 yuan/gram, down 0.43% from the afternoon close [2] - On December 24, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 16,510.00 yuan/kg and closed at 17,609.00 yuan/kg, a change of 7.10% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,367,254 lots, and the open interest was 348,865 lots. The night session closed at 17,211 yuan/kg, down 2.26% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On December 24, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.136%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.63%, also unchanged [3] Changes in SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volumes - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 6,755 lots, and the short positions decreased by 3,264 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 491,223 lots, a change of 29.19% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions increased by 6,459 lots, and the short positions increased by 12,636 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 3,301,271 lots, a change of 38.32% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,064.56 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF position was 16,447 tons, a decrease of 56 tons [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On December 24, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -4.74 yuan/gram, and for silver was -1,611.92 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 57.62, a change of -6.59% from the previous trading day, and the overseas ratio was 64.27, a change of 0.96% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On December 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 55,632 kg, a change of -10.36% from the previous trading day, and the trading volume of silver was 1,010,776 kg, a change of 23.70%. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 26,760 kg [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth - quarter meeting, suggesting leveraging the integrated effect of incremental and existing policies, strengthening monetary policy regulation, and promoting low - cost social comprehensive financing. The meeting emphasized maintaining capital market stability but did not mention the real estate market. The US plans to impose tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products from 2027, and China firmly opposes this [1]. - A - share major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.53% to 3940.95 points and the ChiNext Index up 0.77%. Most sector indices rose, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan. US stocks also closed higher on Christmas Eve [1]. - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures was repaired, and the trading volume and open interest increased simultaneously [2]. - The broader market showed a slight increase in volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving six consecutive positive days. However, the overall willingness to take over was slightly insufficient, and there was some divergence among broad - based indices. The Shanghai Composite Index has not reached the resistance level, and the main tone is still oscillatory repair [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][12][10] 2. Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indices on December 24, 2025: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.53% to 3940.95, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.88% to 13486.42, the ChiNext Index rose 0.77% to 3229.58, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.29% to 4634.06, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.08% to 3025.18, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.31% to 7352.04, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.54% to 7506.38 [14]. - The charts include the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [15] 3. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures: IF trading volume was 98971 (+6942), open interest was 272260 (+1836); IH trading volume was 39414 (+1602), open interest was 83057 (+229); IC trading volume was 120446 (+24352), open interest was 271262 (+15502); IM trading volume was 185772 (+40779), open interest was 363902 (+11974) [16]. - The basis of stock index futures: for IF, the basis of the current - month contract was - 16.46 (+5.47), the next - month contract was - 29.66 (+9.47), the current - quarter contract was - 39.06 (+10.27), and the next - quarter contract was - 88.46 (+11.07); for IH, the basis of the current - month contract was 0.02 (+3.34), the next - month contract was - 0.58 (+3.74), the current - quarter contract was 1.82 (+3.74), and the next - quarter contract was - 5.38 (+7.74); for IC, the basis of the current - month contract was - 27.44 (+5.75), the next - month contract was - 74.64 (+7.75), the current - quarter contract was - 111.64 (+11.95), and the next - quarter contract was - 297.64 (+18.55); for IM, the basis of the current - month contract was - 42.18 (+7.24), the next - month contract was - 115.78 (+11.84), the current - quarter contract was - 178.78 (+16.24), and the next - quarter contract was - 417.78 (+15.44) [41]. - The inter - delivery spread of stock index futures: for the next - month minus the current - month spread, IF was - 13.20 (+4.00), IH was - 0.60 (+0.40), IC was - 47.20 (+2.00), and IM was - 73.60 (+4.60); for other spread combinations, specific values and changes are also provided [46][48][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a significant drop on Tuesday and a sharp rise on Wednesday, there was no obvious change in the EG fundamentals. The increase was mainly due to defensive short - covering in response to unplanned maintenance at low market prices, along with positive sentiment in the commodity and chemical sectors [1] - The production margins of ethylene - based and coal - based syngas - based EG both decreased [1] - The inventory data from different sources showed different trends. The overall arrival volume is moderately high, and the main port is expected to see a slight inventory build - up [2] - In terms of the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, the supply pressure is high in the next 1 - 2 months, and the demand from weaving is weakening. Attention should be paid to the implementation of filament production cuts [2] - For investment strategies, the unilateral rating is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period or inter - commodity strategies [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3818 yuan/ton (a change of +195 yuan/ton or +5.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3598 yuan/ton (a change of +76 yuan/ton or +2.16% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was - 13 yuan/ton (a decrease of 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production margin of ethylene - based EG was - 110 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1046 yuan/ton (a decrease of 72 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [1] - The overall domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has risen above 70% [2] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on the international price difference was provided in the text, but a figure (Figure 9) about the international price difference (US FOB - China CFR) was mentioned [20] Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Weaving orders are weakening marginally, and the operating rate is declining rapidly, while the polyester operating rate remains firm. Attention should be paid to the implementation of filament production cuts due to weakening profitability [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF's data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 84.4 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.5 tons); according to Longzhong's data on Thursdays, it was 61.7 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.8 tons) [2] - The planned arrival volume at major ports in East China last week was 11.1 tons and 3 tons at secondary ports; this week, the planned arrival volume at major ports is 11.8 tons and 2.7 tons at secondary ports. The overall volume is moderately high, and the main port is expected to see a slight inventory build - up [2] - The expected inventory build - up in the next 1 - 2 months is around 50 tons [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract is expected to oscillate, while the February contract is expected to oscillate with an upward trend [9] - The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations are likely to be revised down [7] - The delivery settlement price of the December contract is estimated to be between 1600 - 1700 points, and attention should be paid to the actual SCFIS release [4] - The 02 contract is gradually shifting to the real - world trading logic, and the current point of contention is whether the first half of January marks the end of this round of freight rate increases [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of December 24, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts for the container shipping index (European line) futures was 66,098 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 29,953 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1795.80, 1165.00, 1319.00, 1481.00, 1051.10, and 1605.90 respectively [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - On December 19, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1533 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 1992 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2846 dollars/FEU. On December 22, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1589.20 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 962.10 points [8] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the average weekly capacity for the remaining two weeks was 314,500 TEU, with capacities of 301,000 and 327,900 TEU in weeks 52 and 53 respectively. In January, the average weekly capacity was 304,600 TEU, and in February, it was 284,700 TEU. There were 3 blank sailings and 2 TBNs in January, and 8 TBNs and 3 blank sailings in February [3] - As of December 21, 2025, 250 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. Among them, 75 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.1315 million TEU, and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [8] 3.4 Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan for Gaza is progressing, and the Suez Canal is likely to resume operation after the Spring Festival in 2026. The resumption of the Suez Canal means an increase in effective capacity supply and the risk of further depressing freight rates [7] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Information from various surveys indicates that the cargo volume is gradually recovering [4] - The signing process of long - term agreements by OA and PA alliances has accelerated, with the central price of long - term agreements around 1800 dollars/FEU [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2) Core View of the Report - The crude oil price has rebounded from the low level recently, but the expectation of oversupply in the oil market has not reversed, and the resistance above still exists. The fuel oil market has limited overall drivers with a mix of long and short factors [2]. - The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil has stabilized and rebounded recently, but the supply is still abundant, and the new 164,000 tons of FU futures warehouse receipts this week, with a total of 234,000 tons, suppress the market [2]. - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Kuwait and Nigeria is expected to increase due to changes in refinery maintenance. Although the end - of - year demand for marine fuel is boosted and there is component diversion by gasoline and diesel, the supply is abundant, and the valuation will be continuously suppressed [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 0.08% at 2,480 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.47% at 3,014 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Other strategies (cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, options): None [3] Charts - There are 18 charts in total, including Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot prices, swap contracts, month - to - month spreads, and domestic fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests [4]