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聚丙烯日报:成本支撑持续偏强,下游维持刚需跟进-20260211
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 05:35
1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost support for propylene remains strong, and downstream demand is maintained by rigid needs [1] - On the supply side, the restart of Wanhua Penglai's PDH unit is expected, but the actual supply increase may be slow due to the rising propane price and pressured PDH profits. The supply is expected to increase slightly. On the demand side, downstream rigid demand provides support, but the demand may be limited as propylene prices rise. The main drivers in the future are the trends of crude oil and propane in the cost - end, the maintenance status of major PDH plants, and the downstream demand and production resumption under cost pressure [2] - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. In the short term, due to high geopolitical uncertainties and acceptable supply - demand support, propylene prices may fluctuate and strengthen following the cost side. No strategies are provided for inter - period and cross - variety trading [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure includes information on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the Shandong basis, the spread between 03 - 04 contracts, the spread between PL03 - 05 contracts, and the market prices in East, Shandong, and South China [1][5][11][13][15] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit and methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [19][22][26][29][32] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - Covers the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [35][36][37][44][50][53][57][58] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - Includes propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [60][61]
化工日报:原料价格坚挺,成本端支撑仍强-20260211
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 05:34
化工日报 | 2026-02-11 原料价格坚挺,成本端支撑仍强 市场要闻与数据 期货方面,昨日收盘RU主力合约16335元/吨,较前一日变动+90元/吨;NR主力合约13230元/吨,较前一日变动+80 元/吨;BR主力合约12860元/吨,较前一日变动+50元/吨。 现货方面,云南产全乳胶上海市场价格16150元/吨,较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15280元/吨,较前一 日变动+80元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1965美元/吨,较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1905 美元/吨,较前一日变动+10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12800元/吨,较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价12600元/吨,较前一日变动-100元/吨。 市场资讯 根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据,2026年1月份,我国重卡市场共计销售约10.1万辆,同比增长约40%。 2025年12月中国天然橡胶(含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶)进口量80.34万吨,环比增 加24.84%,同比增加25.4%,2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨,累计同 ...
EG主港延续累库,节前氛围偏弱
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 05:34
化工日报 | 2026-02-11 EG主港延续累库,节前氛围偏弱 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面:昨日EG主力合约收盘价3733元/吨(较前一交易日变动-6元/吨,幅度-0.16%),EG华东市场现货价3625 元/吨(较前一交易日变动-10元/吨,幅度-0.28%),EG华东现货基差-110元/吨(环比+0元/吨)。 库存方面:根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据,MEG 华东主港库存为93.5万吨(环比+3.8万吨);根据隆众每周四发布 的数据, MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨(环比+2.8万吨)。据CCF数据,上周华东主港实际到港总数11万吨,副 港到港量3万吨;2.9~2.23华东主港计划到港总数18.1万吨,副港到港量5.8万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑:国内供应端,国内乙二醇负荷高位,1~2月高供应和需求转弱下累库压力仍大,但卫星计划 2月转产,关注价格上涨后乙烯下游各品种估值的相对变化;海外供应方面,随着沙特、台湾装置检修,后续2月 底前后进口压力将有所缓解,1~2月压力仍大,3月将有小幅去库。需求端,春节检修陆续兑现,织造负荷和聚酯 负荷加速下滑,刚需支撑转弱。 策略 单边:中性。年前氛围偏弱,低 ...
黑色建材日报:淡季格局显现,钢价震荡偏弱-20260211
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 05:31
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [2] - Iron Ore: Sideways to Bearish [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal Coal: Stable to Slightly Bullish [7] 2. Core Views - The steel market is in a slack season with prices oscillating weakly. The overall contradiction in the steel market is not prominent, but poor building material demand, weak downstream purchasing sentiment, and higher seasonal inventory accumulation are suppressing rebar prices. High inventory is also constraining the price space of hot-rolled coils. Before the holiday, steel inventories continue to rise, and supply-demand pressure increases slightly. With weakening raw material prices, steel prices will maintain a weakly oscillating trend [1]. - The iron ore market sentiment is weak, and prices are oscillating. High prices have led to high non-mainstream shipments, but global shipments are seasonally declining. Daily average hot metal production is stable, and iron ore consumption has slightly increased month-on-month. Port inventories are continuously rising, and as steel mill restocking nears completion, the support for raw material prices is weakening. The supply-demand contradiction in the iron ore market is deepening, and if port liquidity issues are resolved, port supplies could cause a significant supply shock [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is experiencing weak trading, with prices oscillating weakly. As the holiday approaches, more coal mines are announcing shutdowns, leading to a light trading atmosphere, with many auctions failing and prices falling in the coking coal market. After the first round of coke price increases, coke producers' profits have improved, but most steel mills have completed winter restocking, leading to a sharp decline in speculative demand for coke [5]. - The thermal coal market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with prices remaining stable. As the Spring Festival approaches, more private mines in the main production areas are on holiday, leading to a tightening supply. Downstream demand, except for some chemical industries, has shrunk significantly. The market is characterized by low activity, with supply and demand both weak. Import coal prices are rising due to supply uncertainties in Indonesia. Before the holiday, the upside for prices is limited, and they are expected to remain stable to slightly bullish. After the holiday, as coal mine supply resumes and the peak season nears its end, prices may face downward pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures prices oscillated downward. On Monday, the rebar inventory in Hangzhou was 79.3 million tons, with an outbound volume of 0.2 million tons, compared to 58.5 million tons and 0.5 million tons respectively in the same period last year. Building material demand is poor, and downstream purchasing sentiment is weak. Seasonal inventory accumulation is slightly higher than last year, suppressing rebar prices. Plate demand is relatively stable, but high inventory is constraining the price space of hot-rolled coils [1]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Before the holiday, steel inventories continue to rise, and supply-demand pressure increases slightly. With weakening raw material prices, steel prices will maintain a weakly oscillating trend. Later, attention should be paid to winter restocking and changes in raw material prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - sided trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices oscillated. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port fluctuated slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for刚需. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major national ports was 55.5 million tons, a 13.01% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative transaction volume of forward - looking spot iron ore was 69.5 million tons (5 transactions), a 13.93% month - on - month increase (with all transactions from mines) [3]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: High prices have led to high non - mainstream shipments, but global shipments are seasonally declining. Daily average hot metal production is stable, and iron ore consumption has slightly increased month - on - month. Port inventories are continuously rising, and as steel mill restocking nears completion, the support for raw material prices is weakening. The supply - demand contradiction in the iron ore market is deepening, and if port liquidity issues are resolved, port supplies could cause a significant supply shock. Later, attention should be paid to changes in iron ore inventories and negotiation progress [3]. - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for single - sided trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated weakly. As the holiday approaches, more coal mines are announcing shutdowns, leading to a light trading atmosphere, with many auctions failing and prices falling in the coking coal market. The spot prices of coke in the main production areas and ports are relatively stable, and coke producers' production is relatively stable. After the first round of coke price increases, coke producers' profits have improved, but most steel mills have completed winter restocking, leading to a sharp decline in speculative demand for coke [5]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: In the short term, coke prices are expected to oscillate and follow cost fluctuations. For coking coal, as steel mill hot metal production has recovered, the rigid demand for coking coal remains resilient. However, as downstream restocking nears completion, speculative demand has declined. As the Spring Festival approaches, more coal mines are shutting down for the holiday, and Mongolian coal imports will be suspended during the Spring Festival, alleviating the supply pressure on coking coal. Before the Spring Festival, coal prices are expected to remain stable with narrow adjustments. Attention should be paid to the resumption of domestic coal production after the festival [6]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - sided trading, no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, more private mines in the main production areas are on holiday, leading to a tightening supply. Downstream demand, except for some chemical industries, has shrunk significantly. Before the holiday, prices are expected to change little, and attention should be paid to the recovery of market supply and demand after the holiday. At ports, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream users are on holiday, and terminal daily consumption is continuously declining, resulting in low market activity. Affected by the tightening supply at the mine mouth, market supplies to ports are tight, and port shipments are in a continuous loss - making situation. Currently, the market shows weak supply and demand, and prices remain stable. In the import market, the tender prices of imported coal are continuously rising. Due to uncertainties in the later production policies of Indonesian mines, prices are relatively high [7]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Recently, due to coal mine holidays, supply has shrunk, and downstream factories are also gradually taking holidays, resulting in weak supply and demand. Affected by supply in the import market, domestic thermal coal prices have maintained a slight upward trend. Recently, the full approval of the RKAB of a leading Indonesian mine is expected, and the approval results of other mines will be announced successively. In the later period, Indonesian supply is expected to recover. Overall, before the holiday, the upside for prices is limited, and they are expected to remain stable to slightly bullish. After the holiday, as coal mine supply resumes and the peak season nears its end, prices may face downward pressure [7].
现货涨跌互现,外盘保持坚挺
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 05:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, focus on the development of the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - On February 10, the regional prices of liquefied gas in different markets in China were as follows: Shandong market 4350 - 4530 yuan/ton, Northeast market 3740 - 4150 yuan/ton, North China market 4150 - 4480 yuan/ton, East China market 4150 - 4570 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4590 - 4830 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton, South China market 4680 - 4800 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 642 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) and 632 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4909 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan/ton) and 4833 yuan/ton (up 26 yuan/ton) in RMB; in South China, they were 632 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) and 622 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4833 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan/ton) and 4756 yuan/ton (up 26 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - The domestic liquefied gas spot prices showed a mixed trend. In East China, the civilian end of liquefied gas remained stable while the ether - after product prices decreased. The upstream focused on sales volume, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was acceptable. Overseas supply tightened marginally, but the PG futures market was relatively weak. High raw material costs suppressed downstream profits, and the price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civilian gas also put pressure on the PG market. There were also disturbances from warehouse receipts and delivery games [1] - Short - term attention should be paid to the Iranian situation. If the conflict escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic supplies and potential upward risks for the market. If the situation eases, the LPG market is still expected to be oversupplied [1] Summary by Relevant Directory Market Analysis - Regional prices of liquefied gas in different markets in China on February 10 [1] - CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East and South China in the first half of March 2026 and their RMB equivalent [1] - The mixed trend of domestic liquefied gas spot prices, the situation of the civilian end and ether - after product in East China, upstream and downstream conditions, overseas supply, and the influence factors on the PG market [1] - The need to focus on the Iranian situation and its potential impact on the market [1] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral, focus on the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] - Other strategies (inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [2] Figures - Figures showing the spot prices of civilian liquefied gas and ether - after carbon four in different regions, as well as the closing prices, month - to - month differences, and trading volume and open interest of PG futures contracts [3]
需求疲软压制价格,双硅同步下跌
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 05:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound fluctuation. The supply side has significantly shrunk, providing obvious price support, but the high inventory of polysilicon suppresses demand, and the price lacks upward momentum. The upward potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downward space is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [1][2] - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. Although the supply side has shrunk significantly in February, providing support for prices, the demand side remains weak due to downstream cost constraints. The large - scale inventory is being cleared slowly, suppressing price increases. There is no obvious driving force for the "rush to export" phenomenon before April, and we need to wait for the supply - demand game [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Categories Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 10, 2026, the futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated and fell. The main contract 2605 opened at 8430 yuan/ton and closed at 8375 yuan/ton, a change of (- 130) yuan/ton or (- 1.53)% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 303387 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 9, 2026, was 18117 lots, a change of 1368 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9400 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8600 - 8800 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8600 - 8800 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 56.2 tons, an increase of 1.44% from the previous week [1] - The demand for industrial silicon continued to be weak. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were no new orders, large polysilicon manufacturers cut production, and the market was mainly focused on inventory clearance [1] - Large manufacturers have plans to cut production and stop work in February, and with the Spring Festival approaching, the supply is expected to shrink [1] Strategy - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound fluctuation. Short - term range operation is recommended for unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 10, 2026, the main futures contract 2605 of polysilicon fluctuated and fell, opening at 48815 yuan/ton and closing at 48950 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.23% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 38617 (38347 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 3991 lots [2] - The spot price of polysilicon increased slightly. According to SMM statistics, N - type material was 48.50 - 58.80 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 34.10, with a month - on - month change of 2.40%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 28.32GW, with a month - on - month change of 3.77%. The weekly production of polysilicon was 20100.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of - 0.50%, and the silicon wafer production was 10.38GW, with a month - on - month change of - 11.66% [3] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery chips, and components remained stable. There were no quotes and transactions for mainstream polysilicon products this week. Market sentiment was more cautious than last week, new orders were completely stagnant, and only a few companies had small - scale exploratory inquiries. Downstream companies were mainly digesting existing inventories, and the purchasing willingness was extremely low [3][4] Strategy - The price of polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate. Short - term range operation is recommended for unilateral trading, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [5]
市场供需两端格局明显,铜价维持震荡格局
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 05:30
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-11 市场供需两端格局明显 铜价维持震荡格局 期货行情: 2026-02-10,沪铜主力合约开于 101740元/吨,收于 101560元/吨,较前一交易日收盘-0.27%,昨日夜盘沪铜主力 合约开于 101,660元/吨,收于 101,730 元/吨,较昨日午后收盘下降0.13%。 现货情况: 据 SMM 讯,昨日沪铜现货报价区间为贴水40至升水50元/吨,均价升水5元/吨,较前日下跌30元/吨。主力合约2602 早盘冲高回落,收盘报101210元/吨。市场采销情绪双降,上海地区销售情绪指数2.65,采购指数2.55。持货商报价 分化,其中优质品牌因货源紧张报价坚挺,平水铜及非注册品牌则贴水扩大成交。进口维持亏损,隔月价差在350-450 元/吨。展望后市,随着进口货源到港与下游备货结束,市场呈现供需两淡局面。持货商部分惜售待交割,可流通 资源有限,而买方接货意愿低迷,预计现货升水将继续承压。 重要资讯汇总: 地缘方面,美国总统特朗普周二在接受采访时表示,若与伊朗的谈判失败,他正考虑向中东再派遣一个航母打击 群,以为可能的军事行动做准备。美国与伊朗上周五在阿曼重启谈 ...
关注AI上游供需
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 05:30
宏观日报 | 2026-02-11 关注AI上游供需 中观事件总览 生产行业:1)工信部等五部门发布《关于加强信息通信业能力建设支撑低空基础设施发展的实施意见》。其中提 到,提升产业供给能力。积极推进5G-A产业发展,进一步升级完善现有地面基站设施功能,加快通感融合等技术 产业成熟,逐步降低设备成本。加强低空装备与低空信息通信的融合创新与设备研发,推进5G/5G RedCap模组与 低空航空器的适配验证。探索低空通信、导航、监视功能融合模组研发,加速技术和产业成熟。2)周二,全球最 大的芯片代工企业台积电公布了最新的月度营收报告。数据显示,台积电1月营收环比增长近20%,同比增长近40%。 这表明,全球对人工智能(AI)芯片的需求仍然强劲,AI热潮仍在持续。尽管存在AI泡沫担忧,但全球科技巨头 并未减少芯片订单。具体来看,台积电1月营收为4012.6亿元台币(约合127.1亿美元),同比增长36.8%,较2025年 12月增长19.8%。这是该公司史上最强单月营收,也是其月度营收首次突破4000亿元台币大关。 服务行业:1)央行发布2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告。继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经 ...
贵金属日报:地缘风险仍在,市场等待非农数据指引-20260211
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 05:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [7] - Silver: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks remain, and the market is waiting for non-farm payroll data. The potential military action between the US and Iran and the Fed's policy stance are influencing the market. The current market sentiment may lead to an increase in the demand for gold investment, and the prices of gold and silver are expected to remain volatile [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: US President Trump is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in case the negotiation with Iran fails. The second round of US-Iran talks is expected to be held next week [1]. - Fed aspect: Fed officials Logan and Harker believe that the Fed's policy stance is close to the neutral level, and if inflation falls and the labor market remains stable in the next few months, there is no need for further interest rate cuts, and the interest rate policy may remain unchanged for a long time [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 10, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,122.92 yuan/gram, closed at 1,121.22 yuan/gram, down 0.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,119.74 yuan/gram, down 0.13% from the afternoon session [2]. - The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 20,500.00 yuan/kg, closed at 20,284.00 yuan/kg, down 2.82% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 611,557 lots, and the open interest was 216,295 lots. The night session closed at 20,242 yuan/kg, down 0.21% from the afternoon session [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 10, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.143%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.695, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Open Interest and Trading Volume Changes - On the Au2604 contract, the long position increased by 1,706 lots, and the short position decreased by 1,001 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 291,869 lots, down 34.80% from the previous trading day [3]. - On the Ag2604 contract, the long position decreased by 4,408 lots, and the short position decreased by 3,637 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,266,314 lots, down 35.76% from the previous trading day [3]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,079.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,191 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 10, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -7.03 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -35.31 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 55.28, up 2.47% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 62.13, up 5.27% from the previous trading day [5]. Fundamentals - On February 10, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 31,462 kg, down 33.84% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 288,342 kg, down 12.03% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [6]. Strategy - Gold: Due to the incomplete clearing of market risk aversion, the demand for gold investment may increase slightly. It is expected that the gold price will be mainly volatile and strong in the near future, and the oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1,080 yuan/gram - 1,180 yuan/gram [7]. - Silver: The silver price is currently oscillating with gold, and due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is basically stable. It is expected that the silver price will also maintain an oscillating pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 20,000 yuan/kg - 21,500 yuan/kg [7][8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio on rallies [8]. - Options: On hold [8]
股指缩量震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 05:29
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, using various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity [1] - The A-share market shows mixed trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising and the ChiNext Index falling, and different industries having different performances [2] - Before the holiday, the market trading volume gradually shrinks. The performance of the CSI 500 index is increasingly correlated with the cyclical sector. Attention should be paid to the trend of the non - ferrous metal industry [3] Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and use various policy tools to maintain liquidity. The adjustment of residents' asset allocation will eventually flow back to the banking system. Overseas, US retail sales in December 2025 were weaker than expected [1] Spot Market Tracking Charts - On February 10, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to 4128.37 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.02%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.37%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.11%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.18%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.06%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.20%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 2 trillion yuan [2][12] Futures Market Tracking Charts - In the futures market, the current - month contract basis of stock index futures maintains a premium. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures continue to decrease simultaneously. The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decline [2][14] - The basis and inter - period spreads of different contracts of stock index futures have different values and changes [39][43][44]