1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The market driving force is limited, and geopolitical risks still exist. Although the overseas supply has tightened marginally and the Saudi CP has increased in February, the PG futures market is relatively weak, and domestic spot prices generally declined yesterday. High raw material costs have suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, leading to negative demand feedback. The price inversion between etherified C4 and civil gas has also put additional pressure on the PG futures market. In addition, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery has disturbed the market, especially for the PG2603 contract, where the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts will be more obvious. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on the development of the Iranian situation. If the conflict escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic supplies, which is a potential upward risk factor for the market. However, if the situation eases or remains controllable, the LPG fundamentals are still expected to be oversupplied after the impact of the US cold wave subsides, and there is still resistance above the market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 9, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4350 - 4510; Northeast market, 3740 - 4150; North China market, 4230 - 4470; East China market, 4150 - 4570; Yangtze River market, 4640 - 4930; Northwest market, 4250 - 4400; South China market, 4780 - 4800 [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 637 US dollars/ton and 628 US dollars/ton respectively, up 10 US dollars/ton and 11 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4875 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan/ton, and butane was 4807 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in South China were 627 US dollars/ton and 618 US dollars/ton respectively, up 8 US dollars/ton and 9 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4799 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton, and butane was 4730 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday freight rate drive is weak, and the recent EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price - holding measures in March after the holiday. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and investors are advised to participate with caution. In normal years, shipping companies issue price - increase letters in March and April to stabilize prices. Before the Spring Festival, the overall drive is estimated to be bearish, and the short - selling direction has an advantage [4][5]. - For far - month contracts, the game over the resumption time is intense, and the volatility is expected to remain high. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. If it does not resume in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the capacity side is expected to be relatively controllable, and the freight rate may still reach a high level. Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and shorting on EC2610 [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Futures Price - As of February 9, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 56,740.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 17,605.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1756.00, 1238.00, 1553.00, 1614.80, 1126.10, and 1425.50 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - On February 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1403 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 1801 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2530 US dollars/FEU. On February 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1657.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1155.66 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships have been delivered in 2026, with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU. 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 737,400 TEU (50 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: In the remaining three weeks of February, the average weekly capacity is 271,600 TEU, with the capacities in WEEK7/8/9 being 366,600/259,800/188,300 TEU respectively. In March, the average weekly capacity is 288,400 TEU, and in April, it is 274,700 TEU. There are 13 blank sailings in February, 7 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March, and 1 blank sailing and 4 TBNs in April [3]. 4. Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. COSCO management points out that there is still no clear schedule for the full resumption of the Red Sea. The Red Sea resumption needs to meet multiple conditions. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route will implement structural adjustments through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaics by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on January 8, 2026, may disrupt the shipping rhythm of relevant industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent sharp decline in the market does not change the global inflation narrative, with the core driver of overseas markets being Trump's policies [1] - Domestic policies clearly aim to boost inflation, and globally, geopolitical tensions continue to drive the competition for mineral and energy resources [2] - In the short - term, be vigilant about market volatility, while in the long - term, inflation trends remain unchanged unless there is an economic recession or strong interest - rate hike expectations [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh's policy of "rate cuts + balance - sheet reduction" led to a significant decline in silver and gold prices, and put pressure on Bitcoin, precious metals, and US stocks. On February 10, Warsh may make his first public speech as a Fed candidate [1] - Hasset believes that employment data may slow down, but it does not hinder strong economic growth [1] - The central economic work conference emphasized consumption promotion and price stability. The central bank cut interest rates on January 15, and the Ministry of Finance issued five important policy documents on January 20 [2] - The US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January, with the ADP employment increase of 22,000 people, lower than the expected 45,000. The US and India reached a trade agreement framework, and Trump confirmed India's commitment to stop importing Russian oil [2] - The ruling coalition in Japan won a majority in the House of Representatives election. Prime Minister Kaoi Sanae announced plans to discuss food tax cuts and promote private - public investment [2][4] - Due to the political turmoil of UK Prime Minister Starmer, the UK's stock, bond, and foreign - exchange markets all declined [2][4] Commodity Analysis - In the non - ferrous sector, long - term supply constraints remain unresolved, and precious metals have regained allocation value after the adjustment. In the energy sector, OPEC+ will keep oil production stable in March. The US plans to "sell on behalf" of Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel [2] - In the chemical sector, products like methanol and PTA are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage. For agricultural products, weather and short - term pig diseases need attention, and for the black metal sector, domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair potential are key points [2] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals on dips [3] Important News - Hasset expects a slight decline in employment data, consistent with high GDP growth [4] - Kaoi Sanae will promote food tax - cut discussions in Japan, not issue deficit bonds, and seek to raise funds through non - tax revenues and subsidy reviews. She hopes to visit the US next month [4] - The ruling coalition in Japan won a majority in the House of Representatives election [4] - Two key officials of UK Prime Minister Starmer resigned [4] - Zelensky said the US hopes to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict by summer, and a new round of tripartite talks may be held this week [2][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PE market is under pressure with a weak supply - demand situation. The cost side and macro - sentiment are volatile, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments and post - holiday inventory accumulation [3] - The PP market also has a weak supply - demand structure. The cost side has short - term support but is also volatile, and the focus is on inventory accumulation during the off - season and macro - level guidance [4] - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, as the short - term market will fluctuate widely following the cost side and macro - sentiment [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6721 yuan/ton (-91), the PP main contract is 6630 yuan/ton (-61). LL North China spot is 6620 yuan/ton (-30), LL East China spot is 6700 yuan/ton (-50), PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is - 101 yuan/ton (+61), LL East China basis is - 21 yuan/ton (+41), and PP East China basis is 50 yuan/ton (+61) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 85.9% (+0.6%), PP operating rate is 73.9% (-0.9%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is - 81.4 yuan/ton (-135.1), PP oil - based production profit is - 391.4 yuan/ton (-135.1), PDH - based PP production profit is - 485.2 yuan/ton (-52.7) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is - 84.1 yuan/ton (-97.3), PP import profit is - 362.9 yuan/ton (+2.8), PP export profit is - 60.4 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 30.2% (-4.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 38.8% (-3.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 36.7% (-5.3%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.6% (+0.4%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic market is under pressure. The cost side is uncertain due to geopolitical factors. The supply side has increased pressure with many restarting devices and more imported resources, while the demand side is in a off - season with declining downstream operating rates. There may be inventory accumulation pressure in the upper and middle reaches [3] - **PP**: The short - term cost side has support. The supply side pressure is acceptable with some PDH devices under maintenance and limited increase in overall operating rate, and enterprises are actively reducing inventory. The demand side is expected to decline seasonally, and the overall demand is weak [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Wait and see, as the short - term market will fluctuate widely following the cost side and macro - sentiment [5] - **Inter - period**: No relevant strategy provided - **Inter - variety**: No relevant strategy provided

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core View - The main port of EG continued to accumulate inventory last week. The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,739 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3,635 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.19%. The spot basis in East China was -110 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month. The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$57/ton, up $3/ton month-on-month, and that of coal-based syngas EG was -938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton month-on-month. The inventory in the East China main port of MEG was 935,000 tons according to CCF and 645,000 tons according to Longzhong, both showing an increase. The actual arrival volume at the main port in East China last week was 110,000 tons, and the planned arrival volume from February 9th to 23rd was 181,000 tons. [1] - On the domestic supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is at a high level, and the pressure to accumulate inventory is still high under the high supply from January to February and the weakening demand. However, Satellite plans to switch production in February, and attention should be paid to the relative changes in the valuations of various ethylene downstream products after the price increase. Overseas, with the maintenance of plants in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, the import pressure will ease around the end of February, but it will still be high from January to February, with a slight inventory reduction in March. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance has been gradually implemented, the weaving and polyester loads have accelerated their decline, and the rigid demand support has weakened. [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,739 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3,635 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.19%. The spot basis in East China was -110 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton month-on-month. [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$57/ton, up $3/ton month-on-month, and that of coal-based syngas EG was -938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton month-on-month. [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text. Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The Spring Festival maintenance of downstream industries has been gradually implemented, the weaving and polyester loads have accelerated their decline, and the rigid demand support has weakened. [2] Inventory Data - The inventory in the East China main port of MEG was 935,000 tons according to CCF and 645,000 tons according to Longzhong, both showing an increase. The actual arrival volume at the main port in East China last week was 110,000 tons, and the planned arrival volume from February 9th to 23rd was 181,000 tons. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for PX, PTA, PF, and PR is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost side fluctuates around the Iran situation, and the geopolitical situation needs attention. The PXN has significantly declined, and the floating price of PX remains weak. The Asian PX operating rate has reached a new high since late February 2019, increasing the supply expectation. The fundamentals are weak in the short - term, but the medium - term expectation is good [1] - The PTA spot basis is weak, and the near - term supply and demand tend to accumulate inventory due to the reduction in polyester production during the Spring Festival. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve [1] - The polyester operating rate is 78.2% (down 6.0% month - on - month), and the downstream is on holiday, with inventory starting to accumulate. The estimated average monthly loads for January and February are 88.5% and 80.5% respectively [2] - The PF production profit is 34 yuan/ton (up 17 yuan/ton month - on - month), and the load is gradually declining. The sales of polyester yarn are average, and the load continues to decline [2] - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 642 yuan/ton (down 37 yuan/ton month - on - month). The pre - holiday inventory reduction is smooth, and the processing fee rebounds [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show the TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber basis [7][8][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures show the PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][19] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures show the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [21][23] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the operating rates of PTA and PX in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the Asian PX operating rate [24][27][29] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show the weekly PTA social inventory, monthly PX social inventory, PTA and PX warehouse receipt inventories, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][37][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester operating rate, direct - spinning filament operating rate, polyester staple fiber operating rate, polyester bottle - chip operating rate, and related profit and inventory data [46][48][49] PF Detailed Data - Figures show the 1.4D physical and equity inventories, polyester staple fiber operating rate, factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber operating rate, raw - recycled spread, and the operating rate and production profit of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [68][74][77] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle - chip operating rate, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and month - to - month spreads [85][87][95]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of pure benzene and styrene, including their basis, production profits, inventories, and downstream industry conditions. It also provides investment strategies and mentions potential risks such as styrene plant recovery progress and international situation changes [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene's basis and inter - period spreads are presented, including the relationship between pure benzene's main basis and main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first and third contracts [7][14] - Similar figures for styrene are also provided, such as the relationship between styrene's main basis and main contract, main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third contracts [16][17] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show the production profits and internal - external spreads of pure benzene and styrene, including naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, non - integrated styrene production profits, and various price differences between different regions [21][25][29] 3. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures display the inventories and operating rates of pure benzene and styrene, including pure benzene's East China port inventory and operating rate, and styrene's East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operating rate [41][44][46] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream Industries - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of styrene's downstream industries, including EPS, PS, and ABS [55][57][59] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream Industries - Figures show the operating rates and production profits of pure benzene's downstream industries, such as caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid, as well as other related products' production profits [65][67][85]

流动性日报 | 2026-02-10 市场流动性概况 2026-02-09，股指板块成交6958.37亿元，较上一交易日变动-24.81%；持仓金额16406.46亿元，较上一交易日变动 -1.97%；成交持仓比为41.87%。 国债板块成交4548.49亿元，较上一交易日变动+6.69%；持仓金额9325.50亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.85%；成交持 仓比为47.36%。 基本金属板块成交6382.07亿元，较上一交易日变动-27.28%；持仓金额6492.99亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.77%； 成交持仓比为110.27%。 贵金属板块成交10785.31亿元，较上一交易日变动-26.29%；持仓金额5000.74亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.52%；成 交持仓比为279.97%。 能源化工板块成交4926.27亿元，较上一交易日变动-9.37%；持仓金额4822.13亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.84%；成 交持仓比为88.10%。 农产品板块成交2250.25亿元，较上一交易日变动+7.34%；持仓金额6084.09亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.55%；成交 持仓比为35.66%。 | 一、板块流动性 4 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the strategy [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. As the USDA is about to release its monthly supply and demand report, the market is focusing on South American soybean production. With the pre - holiday trading being light, the market is in a wait - and - see mode and the futures market is oscillating [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9014.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 12 yuan and a change rate of - 0.13% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8114.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 12.00 yuan and a change rate of + 0.15% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9137.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 7.00 yuan and a change rate of - 0.08% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8950.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 60.00 yuan and a change rate of - 0.67%. The spot basis was P05 - 64.00, with a month - on - month change of - 48.00 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8400.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 0.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of + 0.00%. The spot basis was Y05 + 286.00, with a month - on - month change of - 12.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9890.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 0.00 yuan and a change rate of + 0.00%. The spot basis was OI05 + 753.00, with a month - on - month change of + 7.00 yuan [1] Market Information - As of February 9, the national imported soybean port inventory was 8.25918 million tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous week - As of last Thursday, the harvested area of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop reached 16% of the expected area - As of last Thursday, the sown area of the 2026 second - season corn in central and southern Brazil reached 22% of the expected area - As of last Thursday, the harvested area of the 2025/26 first - season corn in central and southern Brazil reached 15% of the expected area - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was $553/ton, up $1/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was $561/ton, up $1/ton from the previous trading day - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) was $503/ton, up $8/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (April shipment) was $497/ton, up $8/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (April shipment) was $454/ton, down $1/ton from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotes for the Gulf of Mexico (April shipment), the US West Coast (April shipment), and Brazilian ports (April shipment) decreased by 9 cents/bushel, 9 cents/bushel, and 5 cents/bushel respectively from the previous trading day - As of the week of February 6, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 2480000 tons, the second - highest level in history. It increased by 190000 tons week - on - week, 730000 tons month - on - month, 2020000 tons year - on - year, and 1530000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. It is expected to drop to about 1.6 million tons during the Spring Festival holiday - As of February 4, the sowing of the 2025/26 Argentine soybean crop has been completed, but the crop growth and moisture conditions have significantly worsened. Currently, 75% of the soybean crops are rated normal to good, 8.6% less than a week ago; 59% of the planting areas have suitable to optimal moisture conditions, 5.6% less than a week ago. More than 40% of the early - sown soybeans are in the critical reproductive growth stage, suffering from severe water shortages. 16% of the late - sown soybeans have entered the reproductive growth stage, with water shortages causing flower abortion and even plant death in extreme cases. About 31% of the national soybean area is in the critical growth stage, and water stress is the core challenge [2]

燃料油日报 | 2026-02-10 盘面震荡运行，市场短期趋势不明朗 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.5%，报2794元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.22%，报3248 元/吨。 近期能源板块波动受到伊朗局势影响较大，目前来看形势仍未完全明朗。周末伊朗与美国谈判缺乏明确结果，本 周可能会举行新一轮谈判，短期需要保持谨慎，密切关注局势发展。 高硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势发展，节前轻仓运行 低硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势发展，节前轻仓运行 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动等、发电端需求超预期、欧佩克增产幅度不及预期、船燃需 求超预期 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 随原油端波动。 站在品种自身基本面的角度来看，高硫燃料油近期市场结构偏强运行，下游船燃需求良好，亚太地区现货边际收 紧，现货贴水与月差相对坚挺，且FU期货注册仓单量减少。在委内瑞拉原油供应减少后，国内沥青炼厂开始寻找 替代原料，伊朗原油和燃料油是潜在选项，高硫燃料油需求存在一定增量预期。此外，俄罗斯1月发货量明显回升， 预 ...