流动性日报 | 2026-02-06 市场流动性概况 2026-02-05，股指板块成交9055.31亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.23%；持仓金额16801.04亿元，较上一交易日变动 -0.20%；成交持仓比为53.17%。 国债板块成交4318.79亿元，较上一交易日变动+13.52%；持仓金额8984.81亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.92%；成交 持仓比为47.84%。 基本金属板块成交9107.79亿元，较上一交易日变动+16.13%；持仓金额6650.98亿元，较上一交易日变动-5.77%； 成交持仓比为131.83%。 贵金属板块成交20479.55亿元，较上一交易日变动+54.85%；持仓金额5330.78亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.83%；成 交持仓比为470.08%。 能源化工板块成交5715.84亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.51%；持仓金额4925.13亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.09%；成 交持仓比为101.73%。 农产品板块成交3081.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+31.46%；持仓金额6184.76亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.12%；成 交持仓比为48.20%。 黑色建材板块成交2 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-02-06 中性 美豆采购增加，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2731元/吨，较前日变动+8元/吨，幅度+0.29%；菜粕2605合约2238元/吨，较前 日变动-9元/吨，幅度-0.40%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3160元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差M05+429， 较前日变动-18；江苏地区豆粕现货3020元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M05+289，较前日变动+2；广东地 区豆粕现货价格3000元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M05+269，较前日变动-8。福建地区菜粕现货价格2410 元/吨，较前日变动-30元/吨，现货基差RM05+172，较前日变动-21。 近期市场资讯，根据Safras & Mercado的调查，巴西港口的装运计划显示，2月份巴西大豆出口量为1142万吨，高于 1月份的出口量244.4万吨，也高于去年2月的出口量958.6万吨。Safras & Mercado调查显示，根据巴西港口装运计划， 2月巴西大豆出口量高达1142万吨，高于1月的244.4万吨，也高于2025年2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall inflation narrative remains unchanged, and domestic policies are clearly driving up inflation. The overseas situation is mainly influenced by Trump's policies. The sharp decline in precious metals does not change the long - term trend, but short - term volatility risks need to be watched out for [1]. - In the short term, be vigilant about market fluctuations. The long - term supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector have not been alleviated, and precious metals have allocation value again after the adjustment. The energy sector has short - term geopolitical support for oil prices, but there are still threats from Venezuela's long - term production increase expectations [2]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to buy precious metals on dips [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 30, Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. After the news, silver fell more than 30% and gold fell 11%, the largest single - day decline since March 1980. The core of Trump's nomination is to cut interest rates and boost the real estate market, and Warsh's "balance - sheet reduction" needs more aggressive "interest - rate cuts" [1]. - On February 5, Bitcoin fell below $70,000, hitting a 15 - month low [1]. - The central economic work conference emphasized consumption promotion and anti - "involution" competition. The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points on January 15. The Ministry of Finance issued five important policy documents on January 20 to boost inflation [1]. - The US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January, and the US ADP employment in January increased by 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000. The US and India reached a trade agreement, with the US "reciprocal tariff" on India dropping from 25% to 18% [1]. - The European Central Bank kept the deposit rate at 2% on Thursday, the fifth consecutive pause since last June. The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 3.75%, with an internal 5:4 vote close to a rate cut, sending a strong dovish signal [1] Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: Long - term supply constraints remain unrelieved, with high certainty [2]. - Precious metals: Have allocation value again after the adjustment [2]. - Energy: OPEC + plans to keep crude oil production stable in March. The US will "sell on commission" Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower the oil price to $50 per barrel. There are short - term geopolitical supports for oil prices, but long - term production increase expectations from Venezuela pose threats [2]. - Chemicals: Methanol, PTA and other varieties are relatively resistant to decline under the "anti - involution" and stock - commodity linkage [2]. - Agricultural products: Need to pay attention to weather expectations and short - term pig epidemic situations [2]. - Black commodities: Focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [2] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy precious metals on dips [3] Important News - Trump said that his nominee for Fed Chair would not be appointed if they expressed the intention to raise interest rates [1][4]. - The UK central bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, in line with market expectations [4]. - The US - Iran nuclear negotiation plan was restored, and the negotiation will be held in Oman [4]. - The second round of Russia - US - Ukraine tripartite talks ended, and the US and Russia agreed to resume high - level military dialogue [1][4]. - The European Central Bank aims to keep inflation stable at 2% in the medium term and will decide the monetary policy stance based on data and meeting by meeting [4]. - The Bank of England had a 5:4 vote to keep the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%. Interest rates "are likely to be cut further", and inflation persistence risks are currently "less obvious" [4]

市场分析 1、2月5日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3339元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌12元/吨，跌幅 0.36%；持仓85907手，环比下跌13038手，成交135269手，环比下跌13227手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—3600元/吨；山东，3240—3280元/吨；华南，3300—3350元/吨； 华东，3250—3280元/吨。 近期能源板块波动受到伊朗局势影响较大，目前形势仍不明朗，等待6号伊朗与美国谈判情况，盘面可能受到消息 面的反复扰动。现货方面，昨日华南地区沥青现货价格小幅上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。市场情绪偏 谨慎观望，春节前华南地区终端仍有赶工需求支撑，但整体成交氛围较淡，局部货源偏紧。如果抛开地缘与宏观 层面的扰动，沥青市场短期矛盾相对有限，原料切换带来的成本与收率变化可能会在3月份后逐步明朗，已经有炼 厂采购浮仓与保税罐中的伊朗原油来替代马瑞原油，考虑到伊朗油的折价，成本端的增长在一定程度上可控。但 如果中东局势恶化，则替代原料供应也将面临更大威胁。 石油沥青日报 | 2026-02-06 现货整体持稳，市场观望情绪较浓 策略 单边 ...

氯碱日报 | 2026-02-06 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存28.8万吨（-0.2）；PVC社会库存59.3万吨（+0.8）；PVC电石法开工率80.37%（+0.39%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.25%（+2.64%）；PVC开工率78.21%（+1.08%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量107.1万吨（+11.1）。 烧碱： PVC社会库存延续累库，下游开工下降 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5052元/吨（-103）；华东基差-202元/吨（+83）;华南基差-182元/吨（+33）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4850元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4870元/吨（-70）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2930元/吨（+0）；电石利润52元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-659元/吨（+86）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利103元/吨（+82）；PVC出口利润-3.6美元/吨（-11.9）。 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1917元/吨（-61）；山东32%液碱基差-76元/吨（+58）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价589元/吨（-1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene port inventory peaked and declined slightly at the beginning of the week. China's pure benzene operating rate started to bottom out and rebound, and the pressure of overseas supply being shipped to China still exists. Downstream, the styrene operating rate bottomed out and rebounded; the caprolactam operating rate remained at a low level, the phenol operating rate slightly declined from a high level, and the adipic acid and aniline operating rates performed well, with their sustainability to be observed [3]. - For styrene, the lowest point of domestic operating rate has gradually passed, with Sinochem Quanzhou restarting and Tianjin Bohua expected to resume production. Styrene port inventory still declined in the middle of the week, and the inventory rebuilding cycle is yet to be realized. Downstream, the ABS operating rate further decreased, but the inventory pressure has been significantly relieved; PS continued its seasonal production reduction cycle, and the inventory pressure was at a low level compared to the same period; EPS operating rate performed impressively, and the finished product inventory was significantly reduced [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread of Pure Benzene and EB - The basis of pure benzene's main contract is 23 yuan/ton (+53), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is -115 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton). The basis of styrene's main contract is 161 yuan/ton (+18 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 183 US dollars/ton (-3 US dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 182 US dollars/ton (-3 US dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 91.0 US dollars/ton (-9.0 US dollars/ton). Styrene non - integrated production profit is 566 yuan/ton (-48 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 30.50 tons (+0.00 tons). Styrene East China port inventory is 108,600 tons (+8,000 tons), and East China commercial inventory is 60,800 tons (-1,500 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage. Pure benzene operating rate is starting to bottom out and rebound, and styrene operating rate is 70.0% (+0.7%) [1][3]. 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 129 yuan/ton (+69 yuan/ton), PS production profit is -422 yuan/ton (-31 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is -843 yuan/ton (+109 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 56.24% (+2.98%), PS operating rate is 55.20% (-0.40%), and ABS operating rate is 64.40% (-1.70%) [2]. 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is -755 yuan/ton (+125), phenol - ketone production profit is -766 yuan/ton (+0), aniline production profit is 1061 yuan/ton (-73), and adipic acid production profit is -385 yuan/ton (+27). Caprolactam operating rate is 73.16% (-0.41%), phenol operating rate is 86.00% (-2.00%), aniline operating rate is 89.04% (+0.51%), and adipic acid operating rate is 69.10% (+0.60%) [1].

市场分析 燃料油日报 | 2026-02-06 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.73%，报2824元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.2%，报3285 元/吨。 近期能源板块波动受到伊朗局势影响较大，目前来看形势依然不明朗。美方一度透露消息要取消原定于6号的谈判， 导致地缘溢价骤然攀升，随后又重新恢复，市场情绪受到反复扰动。短期需要保持谨慎，密切关注6号美伊谈判的 进展情况。 站在品种自身基本面的角度来看，高硫燃料油近期市场结构偏强，亚太地区现货边际收紧，新加坡库存下滑，呢 盘期货注册仓单量减少。且由于高硫燃料油是伊朗的主要出口产品之一，因此对于伊朗局势的风险敞口较大。此 外，在委内瑞拉原油供应减少后，国内沥青炼厂开始寻找替代原料，伊朗原油和燃料油是潜在选项，高硫燃料油 需求存在一定增量预期。低硫燃料油方面，当前基本面矛盾不明显，整体压力有限，短期主要跟随原油端波动。 策略 高硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势走向 低硫方面：中性，关注伊朗局势走向 跨品种：无 跨期：逢低多FU2603/2605价差（正套） 期现：无 期权：无 风险 市场方向仍不明朗，等待美伊谈判情况 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Some PDH units are expected to restart, and downstream demand is following up moderately. The main drivers for propylene in the later stage lie in the trends of crude oil and propane on the cost side, the maintenance status of major PDH units, and the follow - up of downstream demand under cost pressure. [1][2] - It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading due to high short - term geopolitical uncertainties and increased cost - side fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene's main contract closing price is 6205 yuan/ton (-148), the East China spot price is 6490 yuan/ton (+0), and the North China spot price is 6440 yuan/ton (+10). The East China basis is 285 yuan/ton (+148), and the Shandong basis is 235 yuan/ton (+158) [1]. 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene's operating rate is 72% (+1%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR is 237 US dollars/ton (-15), propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is 98 US dollars/ton (-12), and the import profit is - 437 yuan/ton (+5) [1]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder's operating rate is 31% (-0.61%), and the production profit is - 240 yuan/ton (-10); epoxy propane's operating rate is 70% (-3%), and the production profit is - 783 yuan/ton (-328); n - butanol's operating rate is 85% (-2%), and the production profit is 845 yuan/ton (-106); octanol's operating rate is 91% (+0%), and the production profit is 941 yuan/ton (-107); acrylic acid's operating rate is 82% (-2%), and the production profit is 192 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile's operating rate is 69% (+0%), and the production profit is - 917 yuan/ton (-60); phenol - acetone's operating rate is 86% (-2%), and the production profit is - 766 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene is 40,470 tons (-2,320) [1].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-05 现货贴水开始扩大 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-25.89美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-150元/吨至24900元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-45元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-170元/吨至24900元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-45元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-150元/吨至24850元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-95元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-04沪锌主力合约开于24800元/吨，收于24885元/吨，较前一交易日-20元/吨，全天交易日成交 208461手，全天交易日持仓79219手，日内价格最高点达到25010元/吨，最低点达到24720元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-02-04，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.57万吨，较上期变化0.86万吨。截止2026-02-04，LME 锌库存为108200吨，较上一交易日变化-775吨。 市场分析 下游开始进入放假阶段，下游加工品产量环比回落，叠加绝对价格止跌贸易商挺价，现货市场成交冷清，现货贴 水持续扩大。不过今年季节性淡季与往年节奏同步，前期绝对价格的上涨对下游 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-05 供需双弱格局延续 铜价暂陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 冶炼及进口方面，2月4日讯，中国有色金属工业协会在最新发布会上宣布，国内已叫停超过200万吨新建或拟建铜 冶炼项目，标志着行业自发的产能治理与"反内卷"政策取得关键性实质进展，过快增长的产能势头已得到有效抑 制。协会副秘书长段绍甫表示，未来将继续配合国家部门严格管控新增矿铜冶炼项目，旨在从源头扭转原料（铜 精矿）外采比例逐年提升的被动局面。此外，协会正推动完善铜资源储备体系，除扩大国家战略储备规模外，拟 探索建立商业储备机制，通过财政贴息等方式由国有骨干企业试行，储备标的除精炼铜外，亦研究将易于变现的 铜精矿纳入范围。协会副会长陈学森指出，针对铜、氧化铝等产品的"反内卷"政策已基本出台，其效果预计将在 未来两到三年内逐步显现。市场分析认为，此举直接针对近年来因冶炼产能无序扩张导致的加工费（TC/RC）极 度低迷和行业利润恶化的核心矛盾，旨在提升中国在全球铜产业链中的议价能力和长期健康发展。 消费方面，2026年1月铜材终端消费呈现节前抢跑但具体板块有所分化的特征。电力领域，国网订单成为核心支撑， 阶段性补库 ...