1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, focus on the development of the Iran situation; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The energy sector has been significantly affected by the Iran situation. The news of the planned negotiation between Iran and the US led to a sharp decline in oil prices, but the situation has since become more complex, increasing market concerns and causing a rebound in the geopolitical premium of crude oil. The agreement between the US and India will reduce the consumption capacity of Russian oil and support international oil prices. The rise in crude oil prices has led to an increase in downstream energy and chemical products including LPG. The Iran situation remains uncertain, and the upcoming negotiation between the US and Iran on February 6 may cause market fluctuations [1] - From the perspective of LPG's fundamentals, there are both bullish and bearish factors. Overseas supply has tightened marginally, and Saudi Arabia has raised its February CP. However, high raw material costs have suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in a negative feedback on demand. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas has also put additional pressure on the PG market. The game between warehouse receipts and delivery has disrupted the market, especially for the PG2603 contract. If the impact of the macro and geopolitical factors weakens, the market may enter a range - bound state again. In the medium term, the LPG balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply situation, and the supply side has relatively high elasticity [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Analysis - On February 4, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3790 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market, 4200 - 4520 yuan/ton; East China market, 4120 - 4400 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4840 - 5130 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton; South China market, 4798 - 4890 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China, was 620 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 610 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4746 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and butane was 4669 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 612 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 602 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4685 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and butane was 4608 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation. Inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies are not provided [3]

Report Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - Due to India's continued reduction in Russian oil purchases and the widening discount of Urals crude, Russia's fiscal revenue is expected to be significantly impacted, which may prompt Russia to make compromises on the Russia-Ukraine issue in the future [3] - The biggest downside risk to oil prices this year comes from the transformation of Russian oil from sanctioned oil to compliant oil after changes in sanctions [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - On February 5, a survey showed that due to the disruption of Venezuela's oil exports and other OPEC members implementing a three - month freeze on production increases, OPEC's crude oil production decreased last month. In January, OPEC's daily oil production was 28.83 million barrels, a decrease of 230,000 barrels per day from the previous month. About one - third of the decline was caused by Venezuela, and other members also slightly cut production [2] - On February 4, Russia's government oil revenue in January fell to its lowest in more than five years. Weak global oil prices, a wider discount on Russian oil, and a stronger ruble dragged down the fiscal situation. In January, oil - related taxes were halved year - on - year to 281.7 billion rubles ($3.7 billion), and the combined oil and gas revenue also dropped 50% to 393.3 billion rubles. The combined oil and gas accounts for about a quarter of Russia's fiscal revenue [2] - In recent months, India has cut Russian oil purchases, especially after sanctions on major Russian producers. Although the discounts are still attractive, at least three refineries are seeking government clarification, and two have suspended purchases. India's oil minister expects imports from Russia to continue to decline, and refineries want to increase supplies from Canada and the US [2] Investment Logic - India's continued reduction in Russian oil purchases and the widening discount of Urals crude are expected to significantly impact Russia's fiscal revenue, which may prompt Russia to make compromises on the Russia - Ukraine issue. The biggest downside risk to oil prices this year is the transformation of Russian oil from sanctioned oil to compliant oil after changes in sanctions [3] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in a short - term range and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term [4] Risk - Downside risks: Relaxation of Russian oil sanctions, macro black - swan events [4] - Upside risks: Tighter supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela), large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle - East conflicts [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, the space photovoltaic technology is in the early stage of exploration and verification, and it's too early to determine a clear technical direction. Currently, GaAs batteries are the mainstream choice for commercial aerospace and space stations, while HJT perovskite technology is still far from large - scale commercialization [1]. - In the service industry, the 2026 Credit Market Work Conference of the People's Bank of China required to accurately grasp the economic and financial situation changes in the 15th Five - Year Plan period, strengthen financial services in key areas, and develop various types of finance [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Upstream - **有色 (Non - ferrous metals)**: The price of electrolytic copper fluctuates, and the price of nickel continues to fall. The spot price of copper on February 4 is 104,786.7 yuan/ton, up 3.11% year - on - year; the spot price of zinc is 24,886.0 yuan/ton, down 1.39% year - on - year; the spot price of aluminum is 23,780.0 yuan/ton, down 2.00% year - on - year; the spot price of another type of aluminum is 16,481.3 yuan/ton, down 2.26% year - on - year [3][36]. - **农业 (Agriculture)**: The price of eggs has a callback. On February 4, the spot price of eggs is 7.7 yuan/kg, down 10.08% year - on - year. The spot price of corn is 2,267.1 yuan/ton, down 0.19% year - on - year; the spot price of palm oil is 9,074.0 yuan/ton, down 2.39% year - on - year; the spot price of cotton is 16,016.3 yuan/ton, down 0.59% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of pork is 18.4 yuan/kg, down 0.92% year - on - year [3][36]. - **黑色 (Black commodities)**: Black commodities decline slightly. The spot price of螺纹钢 (rebar) on February 4 is 3,177.0 yuan/ton, down 0.38% year - on - year; the spot price of铁矿石 (iron ore) is 805.6 yuan/ton, down 0.38% year - on - year; the spot price of线材 is 3,377.5 yuan/ton, down 0.88% year - on - year [3][36]. B. Midstream - **化工 (Chemical industry)**: The operating rates of PX and urea remain at high levels. On February 4, the spot price of PTA is 5,151.1 yuan/ton, down 3.08% year - on - year; the spot price of polyethylene is 6,930.0 yuan/ton, up 0.36% year - on - year; the spot price of urea is 1,777.5 yuan/ton, up 1.43% year - on - year; the spot price of soda ash is 1,201.4 yuan/ton, down 0.12% year - on - year [3][36]. - **能源 (Energy)**: The coal consumption of power plants is at a low level. The coal price on February 4 is 800.0 yuan/ton, down 0.50% year - on - year; the spot price of WTI crude oil is 63.2 dollars/barrel, up 1.31% year - on - year; the spot price of Brent crude oil is 67.3 dollars/barrel, up 1.11% year - on - year; the spot price of liquefied natural gas is 3,728.0 yuan/ton, up 3.61% year - on - year [3][36]. - **农业 (Agriculture)**: The operating rate of pork products increases [3]. C. Downstream - **地产 (Real estate)**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities decline seasonally [3]. - **服务 (Service)**: The number of domestic flights is at a high level [3].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-05 企业逢低备货积极性仍差 铅价难有强劲表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2026-02-04，LME铅现货升水为-51.98美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16425 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25 元/吨至16500元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16400元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化-25元/吨至16475元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25 元/吨至9950元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10225元/ 吨。 期货方面：2026-02-04，沪铅主力合约开于16640元/吨，收于16590元/吨，较前一交易日变化-50元/吨，全天交易日 成交50833手，较前一交易日变化-21462手，全天交易日持仓58276手，手较前一交易日变化3527手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16670元/吨，最 ...

国债期货日报 | 2026-02-05 移仓进行中，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算 收入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优"， 支出力度有望加强，节奏继续前置，对稳增长形成支撑。（4）金融：2025年前12个月份社会融资规模增量累计为 35.6万亿元，比去年同期3.34万亿：12月末，M2余 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR, with attention to pre - holiday capital reduction [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market sentiment is warming up, and the PTA basis is being repaired. The cost side is still influenced by the Iranian situation, and the geopolitical situation is complex [1]. - In the PX market, although the short - term fundamentals are weak due to supply increase expectations and demand - side maintenance plans, the medium - term outlook is positive [1]. - For PTA, the short - term supply and demand is in a state of accumulation, but in the long - term, as the capacity expansion cycle ends, the processing fee is expected to improve [1]. - In the demand side, the polyester operating rate is declining, the weaving load is dropping rapidly, and downstream enterprises are preparing for the Spring Festival holiday. Different polyester products have different profit and inventory situations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show the trends of TA and PX main contracts, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [7][8][13]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Include PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][17]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Cover toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [22][24]. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Display the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX operating rates in China and Asia [25][28][30]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Present PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and various types of warehouse receipts for PTA, PX, and PF [35][38][39]. Downstream Polyester Load - Include the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, and the operating rates of related industries such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing [44][46][54]. PF Detailed Data - Provide information on polyester short - fiber load, inventory days, and the operating rates and profits of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [66][71][80]. PR Fundamental Details - Show polyester bottle - chip load, inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and inter - month spreads [84][86][94].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-05 多晶硅持续反弹，供需边际改善 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-02-04，工业硅期货价格震荡下跌，主力合约2605开于8855元/吨，最后收于8850元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-15） 元/吨，变化（-0.17）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓241016手，2026-02-03仓单总数为15707手，较前一日变化 852手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9300-9400（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计1月29日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.4万吨，较上周减少0.36%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13800-14000（0）元/吨。近日国家取消光伏增值税出口退税政策，短期多 晶硅需求有上涨预期，但由于库存累积导致工业硅需求端传导受阻，且2月多晶硅大厂减产，供应收缩，工业硅需 求端萎靡。有机硅减产预期铝 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The cost side of PE and PP is disturbed by factors such as the rebound of international oil prices and propane, and the market sentiment is cautious, with the disk tending to fluctuate. The supply - demand fundamentals of both are weak, with strong supply and weak demand, and the de - stocking pressure is large. The short - term disk rebound sustainability needs to pay attention to the macro - level guidance and the de - stocking process [2] - It is recommended to wait and see for L/PP in the unilateral strategy, as the current supply - demand fundamentals are weak and the rebound sustainability may be limited [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6918 yuan/ton (+53), PP main contract at 6801 yuan/ton (+71). LL North China spot was 6730 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot 6850 yuan/ton (+50), PP East China spot 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 188 yuan/ton (-53), LL East China basis - 68 yuan/ton (-3), PP East China basis - 121 yuan/ton (-71) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 85.4% (+0.7%), PP operating rate 74.8% (-1.2%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 16.5 yuan/ton (-128.9), PP oil - based production profit - 343.5 yuan/ton (-128.9), PDH - based PP production profit - 362.8 yuan/ton (+25.2) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 41.4 yuan/ton (-52.8), PP import profit - 286.8 yuan/ton (-2.9), PP export profit - 79.5 dollars/ton (+0.4) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 34.6% (-1.8%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 42.1% (-2.9%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 42.0% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 64.2% (+0.2%) [1] 2. Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost side is disturbed by the rebound of international oil prices. The supply is increasing and the demand is decreasing. The supply pressure is expected to rise due to the restart of many devices and more incoming resources. The demand is in the off - season with weak order follow - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and the de - stocking pressure is large [2] - **PP**: The cost side is disturbed by the rebound of propane and international oil prices. The supply is difficult to be significantly supported, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the disk is affected by the cost and macro - sentiment [2] 3. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see for L/PP, as the current supply - demand fundamentals are weak and the short - term cost side fluctuates strongly, and the rebound sustainability may be limited [3] - **Inter - period**: None [4] - **Inter - variety**: None [4]

Market Analysis - Trump announced Kevin Warsh as the nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, aiming for a "rate cut + balance sheet reduction" policy, which led to silver dropping over 30% and gold experiencing an 11% decline, the largest single-day drop since March 1980[1] - The current tight liquidity environment necessitates aggressive rate cuts to achieve Warsh's balance sheet reduction goals, with Fed Governor Milan suggesting a need for more than 100 basis points of rate cuts this year[1] - The December Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy, with a 0.25 percentage point rate cut announced on January 15[2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing sector unexpectedly expanded in January, with growth rates reaching the fastest level since 2022, driven by new orders and production increases[2] - The ADP reported a job increase of 22,000 in January, falling short of the expected 45,000, indicating a cooling labor market despite some stability signs[5] - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with ongoing negotiations regarding oil supplies and trade agreements, including a deal between the U.S. and India to reduce tariffs from 25% to 18%[2] Commodity Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector continues to face supply constraints, maintaining high certainty for investment, while precious metals regain allocation value post-adjustment[3] - OPEC+ plans to maintain stable oil production in March, with geopolitical factors providing short-term support for oil prices, although long-term expectations for Venezuelan production increases pose risks[3] - The chemical sector shows resilience against downturns, while agricultural products remain sensitive to weather conditions and disease outbreaks in livestock[3] Strategy and Risks - The recommendation is to accumulate positions in precious metals on dips, while being cautious of geopolitical risks and potential economic downturns impacting risk assets[4] - Key risks include geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices, unexpected global economic downturns, and tighter monetary policies from the Federal Reserve[4]

石油沥青日报 | 2026-02-05 1、2月4日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3361元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨56元/吨，涨幅 1.69%；持仓98945手，环比下跌11833手，成交148496手，环比下跌18918手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—3600元/吨；山东，3240—3280元/吨；华南，3300—3320元/吨； 华东，3250—3280元/吨。 近期能源板块波动受到伊朗局势影响较大。周初伊朗与美国计划开展谈判的消息一度导致油价大幅回撤。昨日局 势再度出现波折，伊朗无人机被美军击落，市场担忧情绪再度升温，原油地缘溢价反弹。此外，美印协议达成， 印度计划削减俄油采购，这将进一步减少100万桶/日的俄油消纳能力，同时增加合规油的采购，这将收紧非制裁油 市场，对国际油价形成一定支撑。整体来看，原油价格反弹带动包括沥青在内的下游能化品再度上涨。但伊朗局 势依然没有确定性的信号，2月6日美伊双方将在阿曼举行谈判，期间消息面的变化可能造成市场反复波动。 站在沥青自身基本面的角度，供需两弱格局延续，成交量相对偏低，局部现货偏紧。如果抛开地缘与宏观层面的 扰动 ...