贵金属日报 | 2025-12-10 哈塞特称美联储还有很大降息空间 市场分析 货币政策方面，美联储预计将在内部意见分歧的情况下连续第三次降息，官员们随后可能暗示暂停行动；芝商所 集团（CME）的美联储观察工具显示，市场已高度定价一次25个基点的降息。白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞 特表示，他认为美联储还有很大降息空间。美国总统特朗普表示，他将把支持立即大幅降息作为选择新任美联储 主席的\"试金石\"，并称可能通过调整关税政策帮助降低部分商品价格。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-09，沪金主力合约开于958.04元/克，收于951.54元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.75%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于955.70元/克，收于955.82元/克，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.45%。 2025-12-09，沪银主力合约开于13726.00元/千克，收于13607.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.72%。当日成交 量为1309030手，持仓量为417326手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于13761元/千克，收于14116元/千克，较昨日午后 收盘上涨3.74 ...

丙烯日报 | 2025-12-10 供应端存增量，盘面延续偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价5787元/吨（-32），丙烯华东现货价6000元/吨（+0），丙烯华北现货价6090元/吨（+0）， 丙烯华东基差213元/吨（+32），丙烯华北基差125元/吨（+0）。丙烯开工率74%（+0%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油 CFR179美元/吨（-8），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR44美元/吨（-10），进口利润-341元/吨（+12），厂内库存47890吨（-1080）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率40%（-1.98%），生产利润-330元/吨（+10）；环氧丙烷开工率76%（+1%），生产利润-190 元/吨（-93）；正丁醇开工率74%（-8%），生产利润412元/吨（-30）；辛醇开工率74%（-7%），生产利润693元/吨（+0）； 丙烯酸开工率78%（+1%），生产利润415元/吨（+0）；丙烯腈开工率81%（+0%），生产利润-676元/吨（-70）；酚酮 开工率82%（+1%），生产利润-977元/吨（+0）。 市场分析 供应端东莞巨正源、山东滨华PDH装置存重启预期，PDH亏 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-10 市场仍显宽松，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2763元/吨，较前日变动-15元/吨，幅度-0.54%；菜粕2605合约2317元/吨，较前 日变动-25元/吨，幅度-1.07%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3050元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差 M05+287，较前日变动-5；江苏地区豆粕现货3000元/吨，较前日变动-20元/吨，现货基差M05+237，较前日变动-5； 广东地区豆粕现货价格3000元/吨，较前日变动跌-10元/吨，现货基差M05+237，较前日变动+5。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2510元/吨，较前日变动-40元/吨，现货基差RM05+193，较前日变动-15。 近期市场资讯，12月8日，巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示，巴西12月第一周出口大豆97万吨，日均出口 量为19.4万吨，较上年12月全月的日均出口量9.6万吨增加103%。上年12月全月出口量为200.6万吨。巴西农业咨询 机构AgRural表示，截至上周四，巴西2025/26年度大豆播种面积已达预期面积的94%。美国农业部周一公布 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-10 据农业农村部监测，12月9日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.21，比昨天下降0.05个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为131.92，比昨天下降0.06个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.57元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；牛肉66.55 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；羊肉62.49元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；鸡蛋7.39元/公斤，比昨天上升1.0%；白条鸡17.94 元/公斤，比昨天上升3.9%。 市场分析 综合来看，随着气温的逐步降低，需求有一定转好，叠加腌腊的逐步上量，屠宰企业开工可以看到有一定上升， 但前期集团厂出栏节奏偏慢，叠加散户压栏的部分供应，以及四季度的出栏旺季，预计需求的缓慢增长难以承接 未来较大的供应压力，生猪供应宽松格局或仍将延续。 策略 谨慎偏空 供需双增，猪价震荡调整 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11450元/吨，较前交易日变动+65.00元/吨，幅度+0.57%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.26元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.04元/公斤，现货基差 LH03-190，较前交易日变动- ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-12-10 Dangote炼厂RFCC装置已再度进入检修 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌1.35%，报2410元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约夜盘收跌0.56%，报2997 元/吨。 原油端反弹后再度回调，反映油市供过于求的预期并未逆转，中期成本端对燃料油单边价格压制将持续存在。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，当前整体市场矛盾有限。其中，高硫燃料油市场结构处于调整阶段，裂解价差已从高 位大幅回落。目前来看，随着中东供应增量释放，市场需要炼厂端需求增加来形成对冲，在比价下跌后经济性已 开始显现，将形成一定下方支撑。 低硫燃料油方面，市场整体供应依然相对充裕，但局部存在减量。由于阿祖尔炼厂装置检修时间延长，科威特11 月至今跟踪到的船运发货量依旧为零。此外，Dangote炼厂RFCC装置已经从12月8日开始进入检修（计划内检修， 预计持续到1月26日），检修期间尼日利亚低硫燃料油出口可能会再度回升。高低硫价差短期走势震荡偏强，但预 计上方空间有限。 策略 高硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 低硫方面：短期中性，中性偏空 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market demand for black building materials is weak, with steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal all showing downward or weakening trends [1][3][5][7] - For steel, the supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are improving, while those of plates need improvement through production cuts [1] - Iron ore is facing a situation where supply may increase and demand is weakening, and the accumulation of supply - demand contradictions may lead to price pressure [3] - The demand for coking coal and coke is soft, and the price of coking coal is falling, while the price of coke is under downward pressure [5][6] - The thermal coal market is also weak, with falling prices at the mine mouth and in ports, and a supply - demand pattern of loose supply [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at 3079 yuan/ton and 3252 yuan/ton respectively. The spot market has weak trading, with poor speculative sentiment and mainly low - price terminal purchases [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials are improving, with declining consumption and production, and reduced inventory pressure. The supply - demand of plates needs improvement through production cuts to reduce seasonal inventory pressure. With the arrival of the off - season for building materials, attention should be paid to the impact on fundamentals and the changes in production cuts and profits [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be in a range - bound state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore is weak. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports fluctuate slightly, and the trading volume in major ports is 113.7 million tons, a 1.25% increase from the previous period [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply has slightly increased this week. High prices may stimulate supply, but some inventories are locked. Demand is weakening, with a decline in daily average pig iron production and seasonal decline expectations. The supply - demand contradiction is accumulating, and price pressure may occur if external factors are removed [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke are falling. The demand for coke in some regions is weak due to blast furnace maintenance, and the price of coking coal at the mine mouth is continuously falling. The price of imported Mongolian coal has also declined, with the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal dropping to about 970 yuan/ton [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The trading of coking coal is weak, and the supply - demand structure of coke is relatively loose. The price of coke is under downward pressure due to the weak cost side. Attention should be paid to the impact of autumn - winter environmental protection on enterprises and coal price trends [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to trade in a range - bound state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The prices of thermal coal at the mine mouth in the main production areas are falling. The market demand is weak, with terminal demand - based procurement and traders having a bearish outlook. The port market is also weak, with rising inventories and difficult trading. The prices of both domestic and imported coal are falling, and imported coal has a cost - performance advantage [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price is in a range - bound state. In the long - term, the supply is loose, and attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [7] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货盘面窄幅震荡运行。现货方面，市场成交重心下移，下游按需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：伴随玻璃产线冷修增加，供应收缩扰动下，带动玻璃需求小幅好转，但玻璃供应收缩程度仍不足， 供需矛盾依旧较大。库存虽有所去化，但仍处高位，后续玻璃厂仍需通过长期亏损完成产能出清，持续关注玻璃 冷修及宏观政策情况。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面窄幅震荡运行。现货方面，下游观望情绪浓厚，刚需采购为主。 黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-10 市场需求转弱，铁矿弱势震荡 玻璃纯碱：市场情绪偏紧，玻碱窄幅震荡 硅锰方面，昨日硅锰期货先抑后扬运行，收盘于5732元/吨。现货端：锰矿现货市场报价坚挺，6517北方市场价格 5490-5550元/吨，南方市场价格5520-5570元/吨。 整体来看，当前硅锰企业持续亏损下，产量及开工率延续回落。但减产力度不足，致使企业库存高位。港口锰矿 库存小幅回升，锰元素总库存持稳，为硅锰带来成本支撑。后期关注硅锰基差、锰矿成本支撑及产量变化情况。 硅铁方面，昨日硅铁主力合约收盘于5462元/吨。现货端：硅铁主产区72硅铁自然块现金含税出厂5100-5200元/吨， 75硅铁价格报56 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-10 国内现货价格下跌，市场驱动不足 市场分析 1、\t12月9日地区价格：山东市场，4390-4470；东北市场，4140-4200；华北市场，4250-4450；华东市场，4270-4455； 沿江市场，4550-4890；西北市场，4300-4470；华南市场，4340-4550。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷596美元/吨，稳定，丁烷586美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷4644元/吨，涨1元/吨，丁烷4566元/吨，涨1元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷589美元/吨，稳定，丁烷579美元/吨，稳定，折合人民币价格 丙烷4589元/吨，稳定，丁烷4511元/吨，稳定。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 原油价格反弹受阻回调，LPG外盘表现相对坚挺，叠加高贴水支撑到岸成本。但国内市场表现相对偏弱，昨日现 货价格下跌为主。其中，华东醚后碳四与民用气维持倒挂状态，对盘面定价形成一定压制。虽然海外供应边际收 紧，但中期来看，LPG整体供需格局并未逆转，中东与北美供应将延续增长态势， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for the bottom to consolidate; Cross-variety: None; Cross-period: None; Spot-futures: None; Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost-side support for asphalt has weakened, and the market's rebound momentum remains insufficient. The asphalt market's downside may be limited, but a bottom rebound requires more stimulating factors, waiting for the release of winter storage demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 9th, the closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 2,943 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 201,816 lots, up 6,677 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 167,841 lots, down 4,034 lots from the previous day [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy-traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong, 2,860 - 3,370 yuan/ton; South China, 2,930 - 3,150 yuan/ton; East China, 3,100 - 3,250 yuan/ton [2] - The rebound of crude oil prices has stalled and retraced, weakening the cost-side support for asphalt, and the futures market has been oscillating in a low range. In the spot market, asphalt prices in North China rose slightly, while those in Northwest, Shandong, East China, and South China declined. The overall asphalt fundamentals remain in a weak supply and demand situation, and future terminal demand may decline further with the cooling. The profits of refineries with quotas are relatively attractive, and local supply competition is fierce, suppressing spot prices. As the winter storage demand has not shown signs of large-scale release, market sentiment is cautious, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for the bottom to consolidate; Cross-variety: None; Cross-period: None; Spot-futures: None; Options: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading and position - holding data of various market sectors on December 9, 2025, including trading volume, position - holding amount, trading - to - position ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Plate Liquidity - There are figures showing the trading - to - position ratio, trading volume change rate, position - holding volume, position - holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Plate - On December 9, 2025, the trading volume was 5117.24 billion yuan, a change of - 16.21% compared to the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 13172.08 billion yuan, a change of - 0.86% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 38.64% [1] 3.3 Treasury Bond Plate - On December 9, 2025, the trading volume was 3400.58 billion yuan, a change of - 29.40% compared to the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 7311.86 billion yuan, with no change compared to the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 46.45% [1] 3.4 Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On December 9, 2025, the basic metals trading volume was 5699.31 billion yuan, a change of - 3.60% compared to the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 6721.31 billion yuan, a change of - 3.18% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 83.68%. The precious metals trading volume was 6975.61 billion yuan, a change of - 29.97% compared to the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 4720.89 billion yuan, a change of - 3.07% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 212.83% [1] 3.5 Energy and Chemical Plate - On December 9, 2025, the trading volume was 4343.91 billion yuan, a change of + 5.03% compared to the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 4599.41 billion yuan, with no change compared to the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 81.00% [1] 3.6 Agricultural Products Plate - On December 9, 2025, the trading volume was 3117.11 billion yuan, a change of - 9.14% compared to the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 5943.21 billion yuan, a change of - 1.72% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 51.66% [1] 3.7 Black Building Materials Plate - On December 9, 2025, the trading volume was 2432.68 billion yuan, a change of - 13.63% compared to the previous trading day; the position - holding amount was 3395.17 billion yuan, a change of - 1.93% compared to the previous trading day; the trading - to - position ratio was 73.27% [2]